Now he's on exactly the same numbers as 538, but his model is much noisier/faster moving - which I suppose gets more publicity but makes him look a bit silly imho
125k+ subscribers many paying is worth looking a bit silly for.
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
With respect to Hurricane Helene, have we heard yet today from Ian and his dog, hunkered down somewhere high & dry (hopefully) in Asheville NC?
Most of the impacts reported so far are in Florida and Georgia, but here are latest updates (with last hour) from NYT:
> The French Broad River between Asheville and Hendersonville, N.C., has already reached a record height, and forecasters say it may climb another 9 feet before it crests later Friday.
> “We are considering all roads closed,” said Lillian Govus, a [Buncombe?] county spokeswoman. “We cannot support people traveling at this time,” she said, partly because it is too dangerous for emergency workers to help anyone who becomes stranded.
> Local officials in the Asheville, N.C., area have ordered mandatory evacuations along the Swannanoa River, which runs east from the city through Buncombe County. Forecasters expect the river to reach the highest level ever recorded [with would be IIRC the 1916 flood, also caused by tropical storm].
> As Helene continues moving inland, forecasters warned of a high risk of flash flooding in western North Carolina, particularly along the Appalachian Mountains. A flash flood emergency was issued for Asheville, N.C. until early afternoon.
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
These are domestic prices & not in itself any kind of "existential threat to the economy".
Its industrial prices that are relevant and indeed the UK is expensive , but its more like 25 - 30% more than EU countries, but roughly treble USA (and indeed Scandanavia).
If countries are committed to slowing climate change (for those of us who believe in it) then maybe the next trade war will be around industrial energy prices.
We have Putins Russia, a never ending theocracy in Iran, a failed state in Venezuela plus near war in the middle east, yet Oil and Gas prices are now falling.
What happens when we get regime change and fossil fuels fall further ?
I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red
Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave
The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust
Private sector got such a hit during the pandemic. We need as large a private sector as possible in proportion to the size of the public sector - at the end of the day this pays for everything - and Labour is doing the opposite of what we need.
As a leftie, I will admit to the seductive appeal of spending money that isn't really there. For example from 2010 until the pandemic I believed, and still believe, we should have used the opportunity afforded by historically low interest rates to borrow for investment as the rate of return on that investment would likely have been higher than the interest rate. We'd have a much stronger, more productive economy now if we did so. Austerity was criminally poor economic policy.
And right now, I still believe the way out of the dysfunction Leon refers to is to invest in public services.
But economic prosperity (or, more specifically, market sentiment about the UK economy) is a fickle thing. I wish it were not so, but it is. I genuinely can't see how the Labour party can be promising an end to austerity without committing itself to paying a lot more debt interest, at a lot higher rates than the last decade or so. And that seems a vicious circle.
Can anyone paint a more optimistic picture?
Not really.
Britain collectively, private and public sector, has lived beyond its means for many decades. For a while this was partly financed by oil and gas revenue, but most of that revenue is in the past. It was also financed by selling off British assets, but the money raised was spent on current expenditure (public and private) and not invested.
In order to adjust and start to improve things Britain has to do several things.
1. It has to live within its means and stop selling off capital assets to fund current expenditure. 2. It has to increase investment. 3. It also has to service the debt and pay rent to foreign investors.
All three steps involve cutting current expenditure (or consumption), which is political suicide.
It would, of course, be easier to adjust the earlier one starts, but the reckoning has been deferred so long I don't see a politician offering to bring it forward until forced to do so.
Even most of the people who recognise there is a problem are in partial denial, and expect other people to pay the costs of the reckoning. Whether that is Tories pointing the finger of blame at wasteful public spending, or lefties wanting to tax landlords, or the young wanting to tax pensioners, etc.
Obviously a case can be made why one group or another should shoulder a greater share of the burden, but the problem is, I believe, large enough that everyone would have to contribute. You'd really all have to be in it together this time.
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
These are domestic prices & not in itself any kind of "existential threat to the economy".
Its industrial prices that are relevant and indeed the UK is expensive , but its more like 25 - 30% more than EU countries, but roughly treble USA (and indeed Scandanavia).
If countries are committed to slowing climate change (for those of us who believe in it) then maybe the next trade war will be around industrial energy prices.
We have Putins Russia, a never ending theocracy in Iran, a failed state in Venezuela plus near war in the middle east, yet Oil and Gas prices are now falling.
What happens when we get regime change and fossil fuels fall further ?
Who will be rushing to install solar & wind then.
If we were to move to local, rather than national pricing, it would fairly quickly lower the cost of wind energy, as industry moved to set up where it's cheap. It would also mitigate the increasing inadequacy of the grid to move power from where it's produced to where the demand is (which means we pay producers not to input power into on the system).
The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.
The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.
(The current fiscal rule is based on bogus conjuring tricks already).
Fantastic news if Labour are planning to borrow more for investment. The fiscal rule is silly anyway. Get the economy moving must be the priority.
No one is going to say to Labour if five years, thank goodness debt to gdp is falling, don't worry about the hospitals in disrepair, or that you missed your housing targets.
The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.
The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.
(The current fiscal rule is based on bogus conjuring tricks already).
Fantastic news if Labour are planning to borrow more for investment. The fiscal rule is silly anyway. Get the economy moving must be the priority.
No one is going to say to Labour if five years, thank goodness debt to gdp is falling, don't worry about the hospitals in disrepair, or that you missed your housing targets.
If they do it honestly, they'll unwind some of the damage Brown did to the Treasury definition of "investment".
Is there any Giftgate revelation that could turn the StarmTroopers, or is not being as bad as the Tories' "billions for PPE fraud" the only relevant marker for them?
No, because people on both sides seem to see this like their football team to be supported right or wrong, good or bad with the important rival despised and every failure on their part celebrated like a goal for your own team.
What we need is far more of the population who want and try to help governments of any persuasion do well for the sake of UK plc. That doesn't mean the blues don't still favour their colour and policy mix or that the reds don't remain more focused on helping the less well off (well, excluding pensioners, apparently). I want this government to succeed for the same reasons I wanted the previous government to succeed. We all live with the consequences. The divisions in our society are damaging all of us.
I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red
Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave
The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust
Britain has been heading in the wrong direction for quite a while, and successive governments have kicked the can down the road.
Eventually you run out of road.
The Truss Experience demonstrated that the end of the road is close enough to constrain government budgets, but is it so close that a government can't avoid crashing into it?
Yet we now apparently have Labour about the 're-write the fiscal rules' so they can spend more.
Yes. I'm not looking forward to looking at the detail of that. I do wonder whether it will be a fiction too far for the financial markets.
I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red
Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave
The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust
Private sector got such a hit during the pandemic. We need as large a private sector as possible in proportion to the size of the public sector - at the end of the day this pays for everything - and Labour is doing the opposite of what we need.
As a leftie, I will admit to the seductive appeal of spending money that isn't really there. For example from 2010 until the pandemic I believed, and still believe, we should have used the opportunity afforded by historically low interest rates to borrow for investment as the rate of return on that investment would likely have been higher than the interest rate. We'd have a much stronger, more productive economy now if we did so. Austerity was criminally poor economic policy.
And right now, I still believe the way out of the dysfunction Leon refers to is to invest in public services.
But economic prosperity (or, more specifically, market sentiment about the UK economy) is a fickle thing. I wish it were not so, but it is. I genuinely can't see how the Labour party can be promising an end to austerity without committing itself to paying a lot more debt interest, at a lot higher rates than the last decade or so. And that seems a vicious circle.
Can anyone paint a more optimistic picture?
10 year gilts are what 4%/year? If inflation is 2% that's a pretty low roi required for a government project to be worth it.
The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.
The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.
(The current fiscal rule is based on bogus conjuring tricks already).
Fantastic news if Labour are planning to borrow more for investment. The fiscal rule is silly anyway. Get the economy moving must be the priority.
No one is going to say to Labour if five years, thank goodness debt to gdp is falling, don't worry about the hospitals in disrepair, or that you missed your housing targets.
If they do it honestly, they'll unwind some of the damage Brown did to the Treasury definition of "investment".
Gotta be careful though - both making people healthy and educating them could be viewed as "investment" - human capital.
Where do you draw the line? We have millions out of work for health reasons - is fixing them investment?
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.
We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.
Apparently everything in Britain - from rails to trams to houses to power stations - to domestic heating - must cost 5 times what it costs everywhere else, meaning we will get poorer and poorer as we can't afford it, and all the rich people therefore flee the chilly, darkening nightmare
We need a revolutionary government to break us out of this deathly doom loop. Starmer's Labour is certainly not that
Britain is death by due process.
It's very very hard to get approval and consent to build anything and then there's a huge amount of regulation and compliance in how it's done.
LuckyGuy is just fantasising. No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.
Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
Possibly because it's been so expensive to build here. I bet the backing would be far higher, were it cheaper.
Hinkley Point C is mahoosively overbudget and late - What's it up to now, £50 Bn and ready by 2031 ?
And I have to remind myself that is in fact nowhere near Leicester.
A former colleague gleefully told me there was a 10% rate rise across the board when the last delay was announced. He went there for a couple of years of experience before being transferred to Sizewell and now reckons he'll retire on HPC.
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
These are domestic prices & not in itself any kind of "existential threat to the economy".
Its industrial prices that are relevant and indeed the UK is expensive , but its more like 25 - 30% more than EU countries, but roughly treble USA (and indeed Scandanavia).
If countries are committed to slowing climate change (for those of us who believe in it) then maybe the next trade war will be around industrial energy prices.
We have Putins Russia, a never ending theocracy in Iran, a failed state in Venezuela plus near war in the middle east, yet Oil and Gas prices are now falling.
What happens when we get regime change and fossil fuels fall further ?
Who will be rushing to install solar & wind then.
If we were to move to local, rather than national pricing, it would fairly quickly lower the cost of wind energy, as industry moved to set up where it's cheap. It would also mitigate the increasing inadequacy of the grid to move power from where it's produced to where the demand is (which means we pay producers not to input power into on the system).
I'm not sure why local pricing would lower the cost of wind energy...
Wind and solar are in themselves are cheap BUT its the back up for when they are not producing, storage costs, grid costs etc alongside the 1/2 hourly price still being set by gas that load the cost.
Energy prices are a real issue but the UK will never compete to make say Aluminium which requires an enormous amount of consistent electricity and was often tied to hydro power.
Productivity, labour skills, capital investment, poor infrastructure and exit from the EU are all as big or bigger issues for manufacturing.
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
I have always felt most schools would carry on.
Doesn't mean I agree with the policy - I don't.
That self congratulatory message contains no actual data. It sounds like the kind of bland, reassuring stuff they would put out whether the take up for the coming year was 423% or 0%.
The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.
The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.
(The current fiscal rule is based on bogus conjuring tricks already).
Fantastic news if Labour are planning to borrow more for investment. The fiscal rule is silly anyway. Get the economy moving must be the priority.
No one is going to say to Labour if five years, thank goodness debt to gdp is falling, don't worry about the hospitals in disrepair, or that you missed your housing targets.
If they do it honestly, they'll unwind some of the damage Brown did to the Treasury definition of "investment".
Gotta be careful though - both making people healthy and educating them could be viewed as "investment" - human capital.
Where do you draw the line? We have millions out of work for health reasons - is fixing them investment?
If you were able to separate out health spending into that which measurably increased public health from that which didn't, and could demonstrate a multi year rate of return against borrowing to finance the former, then perhaps. But for now, you can't - and Brown certainly didn't.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.
It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
As well as being an important bird habitat for both resident and migratory birds mudflats are an important carbon sinks.
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.
We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.
Apparently everything in Britain - from rails to trams to houses to power stations - to domestic heating - must cost 5 times what it costs everywhere else, meaning we will get poorer and poorer as we can't afford it, and all the rich people therefore flee the chilly, darkening nightmare
We need a revolutionary government to break us out of this deathly doom loop. Starmer's Labour is certainly not that
Britain is death by due process.
It's very very hard to get approval and consent to build anything and then there's a huge amount of regulation and compliance in how it's done.
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
I have always felt most schools would carry on.
Doesn't mean I agree with the policy - I don't.
That self congratulatory message contains no actual data. It sounds like the kind of bland, reassuring stuff they would put out whether the take up for the coming year was 423% or 0%.
Private school enrolment down just 3.5% according to this source:
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
These are domestic prices & not in itself any kind of "existential threat to the economy".
Its industrial prices that are relevant and indeed the UK is expensive , but its more like 25 - 30% more than EU countries, but roughly treble USA (and indeed Scandanavia).
If countries are committed to slowing climate change (for those of us who believe in it) then maybe the next trade war will be around industrial energy prices.
We have Putins Russia, a never ending theocracy in Iran, a failed state in Venezuela plus near war in the middle east, yet Oil and Gas prices are now falling.
What happens when we get regime change and fossil fuels fall further ?
Who will be rushing to install solar & wind then.
If we were to move to local, rather than national pricing, it would fairly quickly lower the cost of wind energy, as industry moved to set up where it's cheap. It would also mitigate the increasing inadequacy of the grid to move power from where it's produced to where the demand is (which means we pay producers not to input power into on the system).
I'm not sure why local pricing would lower the cost of wind energy...
Wind and solar are in themselves are cheap BUT its the back up for when they are not producing, storage costs, grid costs etc alongside the 1/2 hourly price still being set by gas that load the cost.
Energy prices are a real issue but the UK will never compete to make say Aluminium which requires an enormous amount of consistent electricity and was often tied to hydro power.
Productivity, labour skills, capital investment, poor infrastructure and exit from the EU are all as big or bigger issues for manufacturing.
Because a lot of peak capacity lies idle - and government pays producers not to input it to the grid. And national pricing means there's no market signal to locate where energy should be cheaper (including for battery farms). Which might also be an incentive for local communities to support (eg) wind farm development.
Building a bigger grid to mitigate the problem is both expensive and not quick - though it's also part of the solution.
But the basic point is that our electricity market isn't really a market.
trump released a new shoe design (a timberland boot) but since they're not officially made in collaboration with timberland, he can't use their name. price is $200.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.
It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
As well as being an important bird habitat for both resident and migratory birds mudflats are an important carbon sinks.
LuckyGuy is just fantasising. No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.
Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
How much of that is because people don't believe the lights will go out?
The only reason the lights didn't go out for a lot of people during the Ukraine invasion was because the government spent £67 billion making up for our exposure to global fossil fuel markets.
That's why public opinion has turned like this.
The point being - and the one you strangely seem to miss - is that there was no danger of the lights going out in the UK due to Ukraine. Yes there was a huge increase in price but it didn't affect UK generating capacity. No matter how much money the UK spends, if we do not have the generating capacity (and we are limited in how much we can import electricity viua the connectors) then the lights will go out. Cost is one thing. The ability to actually generate enough electricity is quite another. Something that your polling indicates the public do not actually understand.
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
I have always felt most schools would carry on.
Doesn't mean I agree with the policy - I don't.
That self congratulatory message contains no actual data. It sounds like the kind of bland, reassuring stuff they would put out whether the take up for the coming year was 423% or 0%.
True, but I think the people who run public schools are resourced, and resourceful. Look at how country sports continued after the foxhunting ban. That's not to say I think that they should have to, and that it's not a pathetic, politically-motivated attack on them by the-world's-shittest-ever-government (tm).
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.
It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
As well as being an important bird habitat for both resident and migratory birds mudflats are an important carbon sinks.
There is too the small issue of balancing development and keeping this as a green and pleasant land, rather than Megacity One.
A tidal fence might still be worth exploring, though.
I am not saying we shouldn't invest in tidal, just that environmental impact needs to be part of the consideration. Including the aesthetic as well as biological environment.
The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.
The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.
(The current fiscal rule is based on bogus conjuring tricks already).
Fantastic news if Labour are planning to borrow more for investment. The fiscal rule is silly anyway. Get the economy moving must be the priority.
No one is going to say to Labour if five years, thank goodness debt to gdp is falling, don't worry about the hospitals in disrepair, or that you missed your housing targets.
Changing the borrowing rules is the easy bit.
How do you invest in rail in the north west (as an example) when all the experienced skilled people are working on HS2 ?
A huge investment is required in the National Grid - they use to take about 20-30 apprentices on a year with a high quality 3 year apprenticeships. That was accross overhead lines and sub stations.
Probably need to take 10 times that.
George Osborne's cut to insfrastructure spending, while feather bedding pensioners has done long term catastrophic damage that will take decades to reverse.
The triple lock now costs an additional £11bn a year comapred to the old pension increases. Take a billion back off pensioners and you would think they were being sent to the workhouse.
There is you reason why we have crumbling roads, stone age rail between Liverpool and Hull and delay for ever things like the Lower Thames Crossing.
George Osborne worst Chancellor of last 100 years. David Blunkett worst Home Sec. of last 100 years.
Still they hang around the public space like a bad spell.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
Order a couple of
1) tidal ponds 2) small modular nukes 3) ?
Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
And that will be great when they actually turn up in 20 years time.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.
It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
As well as being an important bird habitat for both resident and migratory birds mudflats are an important carbon sinks.
There is too the small issue of balancing development and keeping this as a green and pleasant land, rather than Megacity One.
Ultimately, if you want to avoid Megacity One, you'll need to commit to the population peaking and then either flatlining or decreasing. Everything else is just tinkering around the edges.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.
It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
As well as being an important bird habitat for both resident and migratory birds mudflats are an important carbon sinks.
There is too the small issue of balancing development and keeping this as a green and pleasant land, rather than Megacity One.
A tidal fence might still be worth exploring, though.
I think the Severn barrage is too ambitious as a first tidal barrage (probably why it was put forward as the option vs nuclear) and would be a massively late and overbudget mega project. However, if La Rance is a guide then that has resulted in increased silting of the river, so the mudflats would have increased.
Test for Starmer here. Swift punishment for the rioters deemed to have quelled the situation.
Well, three idiots throwing paint at Van Gogh's on the day that two other idiots have been jailed for the same. I trust we will see the same expeditious punishment here. They can't say they don't know what to expect...
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
Order a couple of
1) tidal ponds 2) small modular nukes 3) ?
Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
And that will be great when they actually turn up in 20 years time.
SMRs could be delivered in significant numbers within a decade if we committed to them now.
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
I have always felt most schools would carry on.
Doesn't mean I agree with the policy - I don't.
I'm on the same page. I also don't agree with the policy, it's a bit too class warry for me and they could have done other things to bring more of the benefits of the independent sector into state schooling (including forcing shared use of sports facilities), but these schools have already whacked up their fees by way more than 20% over the last few years.
Test for Starmer here. Swift punishment for the rioters deemed to have quelled the situation.
Well, three idiots throwing paint at Van Gogh's on the day that two other idiots have been jailed for the same. I trust we will see the same expeditious punishment here. They can't say they don't know what to expect...
Test for Starmer here. Swift punishment for the rioters deemed to have quelled the situation.
Well, three idiots throwing paint at Van Gogh's on the day that two other idiots have been jailed for the same. I trust we will see the same expeditious punishment here. They can't say they don't know what to expect...
I think suspended sentences would have been better for all of those.
Personally think that if idiot A glues him or herself to something we leave them stuck there. Up to them to get out of it when they want a drink or some food or nature calls.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
Order a couple of
1) tidal ponds 2) small modular nukes 3) ?
Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
And that will be great when they actually turn up in 20 years time.
In the short term we might need 0-6 new gas plants to have on standby. In theory there is a whole bunch of work done on a routine basis to forecast future demand and supply and make sure one is supplied by the other.
But then, in theory, there was a whole bunch of work done on fire safety standards before Grenfell. One can be forgiven for worrying as to whether the necessary action is being taken.
20% VAT on school fees impact news, from a sample of one local SE London independent day school:
"Dear Parents Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
I have always felt most schools would carry on.
Doesn't mean I agree with the policy - I don't.
That self congratulatory message contains no actual data. It sounds like the kind of bland, reassuring stuff they would put out whether the take up for the coming year was 423% or 0%.
Private school enrolment down just 3.5% according to this source:
Mmm. I wonder if any of our Laffer curve fans will be noting the relative price inelasticity and wondering how we could maximise further the revenue raised?
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.
It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
As well as being an important bird habitat for both resident and migratory birds mudflats are an important carbon sinks.
There is too the small issue of balancing development and keeping this as a green and pleasant land, rather than Megacity One.
Ultimately, if you want to avoid Megacity One, you'll need to commit to the population peaking and then either flatlining or decreasing. Everything else is just tinkering around the edges.
My preference would be megacity 1 2 and 3, and then rewild all our post-1890 suburbs and rurban sprawl so we have proper countryside and proper cities.
LuckyGuy is just fantasising. No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.
Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
How much of that is because people don't believe the lights will go out?
The only reason the lights didn't go out for a lot of people during the Ukraine invasion was because the government spent £67 billion making up for our exposure to global fossil fuel markets.
That's why public opinion has turned like this.
The point being - and the one you strangely seem to miss - is that there was no danger of the lights going out in the UK due to Ukraine. Yes there was a huge increase in price but it didn't affect UK generating capacity. No matter how much money the UK spends, if we do not have the generating capacity (and we are limited in how much we can import electricity viua the connectors) then the lights will go out. Cost is one thing. The ability to actually generate enough electricity is quite another. Something that your polling indicates the public do not actually understand.
I'm not suggesting that we don't retain the ability to turn the gas taps on should need arise. The polling was about more energy from a particular source.
I'm not sure what the appropriate level of potential gas generation would be, but having the ability to retain such a safety net is obviously a good thing until we have tidal or battery backups ready to go. Similar with coal in a worst case scenario.
I'm sure most people polled would agree with that. They are not exclusive positions.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
Order a couple of
1) tidal ponds 2) small modular nukes 3) ?
Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
And that will be great when they actually turn up in 20 years time.
SMRs could be delivered in significant numbers within a decade if we committed to them now.
Yup. And retrofit them to the old nuclear power stations due to be decommissioned - those already have an abundance of safety procedures/safeguards/protections.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
Order a couple of
1) tidal ponds 2) small modular nukes 3) ?
Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
And that will be great when they actually turn up in 20 years time.
In the short term we might need 0-6 new gas plants to have on standby. In theory there is a whole bunch of work done on a routine basis to forecast future demand and supply and make sure one is supplied by the other.
But then, in theory, there was a whole bunch of work done on fire safety standards before Grenfell. One can be forgiven for worrying as to whether the necessary action is being taken.
Yep this is kind of my point. They have their eyes on a prize 20 or 30 years in the future but are seemingly blind to the effect their decisions could have in 6 months or a years time. It is actually a rather strange sight given that we are normally criticising politicians for being concerned only with the short term. But no less worrying for that.
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
Order a couple of
1) tidal ponds 2) small modular nukes 3) ?
Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
And that will be great when they actually turn up in 20 years time.
SMRs could be delivered in significant numbers within a decade if we committed to them now.
That is a massive 'if' in the middle of your sentence. But yes that is undoubtedly what we should be doing. But given that Miliband seems to be unconcerned about supporting SMRs I am not confident it is something that will happen any time soon.
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
These are domestic prices & not in itself any kind of "existential threat to the economy".
Its industrial prices that are relevant and indeed the UK is expensive , but its more like 25 - 30% more than EU countries, but roughly treble USA (and indeed Scandanavia).
If countries are committed to slowing climate change (for those of us who believe in it) then maybe the next trade war will be around industrial energy prices.
We have Putins Russia, a never ending theocracy in Iran, a failed state in Venezuela plus near war in the middle east, yet Oil and Gas prices are now falling.
What happens when we get regime change and fossil fuels fall further ?
Who will be rushing to install solar & wind then.
If we were to move to local, rather than national pricing, it would fairly quickly lower the cost of wind energy, as industry moved to set up where it's cheap. It would also mitigate the increasing inadequacy of the grid to move power from where it's produced to where the demand is (which means we pay producers not to input power into on the system).
I'm not sure why local pricing would lower the cost of wind energy...
Wind and solar are in themselves are cheap BUT its the back up for when they are not producing, storage costs, grid costs etc alongside the 1/2 hourly price still being set by gas that load the cost.
Energy prices are a real issue but the UK will never compete to make say Aluminium which requires an enormous amount of consistent electricity and was often tied to hydro power.
Productivity, labour skills, capital investment, poor infrastructure and exit from the EU are all as big or bigger issues for manufacturing.
Because a lot of peak capacity lies idle - and government pays producers not to input it to the grid. And national pricing means there's no market signal to locate where energy should be cheaper (including for battery farms). Which might also be an incentive for local communities to support (eg) wind farm development.
Building a bigger grid to mitigate the problem is both expensive and not quick - though it's also part of the solution.
But the basic point is that our electricity market isn't really a market.
But isn't the problem not that there are no new and creative ways to incentivise the renewables sector better, but that we're locked into silly contracts that act as a disincentive with most of the current installations. If we could wriggle out of those and start again, game on.
LuckyGuy is just fantasising. No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.
Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
How much of that is because people don't believe the lights will go out?
The only reason the lights didn't go out for a lot of people during the Ukraine invasion was because the government spent £67 billion making up for our exposure to global fossil fuel markets.
That's why public opinion has turned like this.
The point being - and the one you strangely seem to miss - is that there was no danger of the lights going out in the UK due to Ukraine. Yes there was a huge increase in price but it didn't affect UK generating capacity. No matter how much money the UK spends, if we do not have the generating capacity (and we are limited in how much we can import electricity viua the connectors) then the lights will go out. Cost is one thing. The ability to actually generate enough electricity is quite another. Something that your polling indicates the public do not actually understand.
I'm not suggesting that we don't retain the ability to turn the gas taps on should need arise. The polling was about more energy from a particular source.
I'm not sure what the appropriate level of potential gas generation would be, but having the ability to retain such a safety net is obviously a good thing until we have tidal or battery backups ready to go. Similar with coal in a worst case scenario.
I'm sure most people polled would agree with that. They are not exclusive positions.
Not for you - because you actually seem to have a sensible idea about this. I have no such confidence with this Government - or at least with Miliband who seems to think that all he needs to do is wish really, really hard and everthing will be fine.
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
UK wholesale electricity prices are high mainly, but not wholly, because of the high proportion of gas in the generation mix, something Miliband is trying to change. Other reasons include lack of transmission capacity (ditto) and lack of gas storage so it has to be imported at spot prices (Don't know if Miliband is doing anything about this but it is in any case a situation he inherited).
If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.
That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?
As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?
And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?
I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
Order a couple of
1) tidal ponds 2) small modular nukes 3) ?
Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
And that will be great when they actually turn up in 20 years time.
In the short term we might need 0-6 new gas plants to have on standby. In theory there is a whole bunch of work done on a routine basis to forecast future demand and supply and make sure one is supplied by the other.
But then, in theory, there was a whole bunch of work done on fire safety standards before Grenfell. One can be forgiven for worrying as to whether the necessary action is being taken.
Yep this is kind of my point. They have their eyes on a prize 20 or 30 years in the future but are seemingly blind to the effect their decisions could have in 6 months or a years time. It is actually a rather strange sight given that we are normally criticising politicians for being concerned only with the short term. But no less worrying for that.
Most of what Millionaire is doing shouldn't affect the work that OFGEM does on the capacity market. But there's always the potential in this sort of scenario that someone at OFGEM decides that the new government isn't going to want to hear the news that a new gas plant is needed, and they decide to fudge things.
Or perhaps the remit provided to OFGEM will be tweaked to achieve the same end.
This is obviously one reason why we need a well-resourced and independent Press to keep an eye on these sorts of things, but so much of the commentary is poisoned by special interests, and so it concludes renewables are worthless, rather than pointing out the additional measures that are required, that it becomes hard to get an honest view.
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
UK wholesale electricity prices are high mainly, but not wholly, because of the high proportion of gas in the generation mix, something Miliband is trying to change. Other reasons include lack of transmission capacity (ditto) and lack of gas storage so it has to be imported at spot prices (Don't know if Miliband is doing anything about this but it is in any case a situation he inherited).
South Korea has a higher proportion of gas in its generation mix than the UK.
The UK renewables were 43% of the total in the last 12 months For South Korea that number was 19%
So why is electricity in the UK 3.5x higher than in S.Korea?
And that's the problem with almost all the new "alternative" energy sources, like tidal and mini nukes and the like. What do you do when there's no demand for their power because the sun is shining?
Every home, every business, every factory, every school, every bus shelter is going to be covered in solar panels... because solar panels become cheaper every day. Already, they are becoming the cheapest building material.
So, how do other energy sources compete? The price of electricity during the day is going to be close to zero. And battery prices are collapsing too: homes will have their own battery backups, because that will be the cheapest.
My personal view is that natural gas is the easiest, cheapest backup at a country level. It's dispatchable, cheap, reliable, relatively clean and by far the easiest way to provide cover in the event you were to have a multi-month period with no wind and cloudy weather.
(But do remember that once you have enough panels, then even in winter in the UK you will have at least enough energy to cover daylight hours. And in time and with enough batteries, probably enough to cover nighttime too.)
I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:
"Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"
Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM
The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.
Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.
The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.
The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
The graph quoted ends in 2023, which was in the Ukraine War fossil fuel supply crisis.
The Telegrunt link cited in the thread translates 2023 as 'now' in Sept 2024, and even quotes UK Steel pointing out that the driving cause is "overdependence on fossil fuels". Roll on windmills.
However, even after this huge discount UK Steel said power remained roughly twice as expensive as in Germany. It blamed the disparity on the UK’s electricity generation mix being “more dependent on gas”, with high natural gas prices pushing up UK power prices. The UK generated 33.7pc of its power using gas in 2023, compared to 17.1pc in Germany and just 5.9pc in nuclear-dominated France. In the UK, wind was in second, generating 28.7pc. But the wholesale price of electricity is set by the most expensive method needed to meet demand. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/26/britain-burdened-most-expensive-electricity-prices-in-world/
Which brings me to a small suggestion: The UK should build SMRs and export them to places where they are especially needed. I think the UK, like the US, could build a SMR within a year, and could build follow-ons for export within five years.
With the right leadership in your government and companies, of course.
The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.
The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.
(The current fiscal rule is based on bogus conjuring tricks already).
Fantastic news if Labour are planning to borrow more for investment. The fiscal rule is silly anyway. Get the economy moving must be the priority.
No one is going to say to Labour if five years, thank goodness debt to gdp is falling, don't worry about the hospitals in disrepair, or that you missed your housing targets.
Changing the borrowing rules is the easy bit.
How do you invest in rail in the north west (as an example) when all the experienced skilled people are working on HS2 ?
A huge investment is required in the National Grid - they use to take about 20-30 apprentices on a year with a high quality 3 year apprenticeships. That was accross overhead lines and sub stations.
Probably need to take 10 times that.
George Osborne's cut to insfrastructure spending, while feather bedding pensioners has done long term catastrophic damage that will take decades to reverse.
The triple lock now costs an additional £11bn a year comapred to the old pension increases. Take a billion back off pensioners and you would think they were being sent to the workhouse.
There is you reason why we have crumbling roads, stone age rail between Liverpool and Hull and delay for ever things like the Lower Thames Crossing.
George Osborne worst Chancellor of last 100 years. David Blunkett worst Home Sec. of last 100 years.
Still they hang around the public space like a bad spell.
They could divert some of the gazillions they spend on London up north and improve things no end
Comments
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
3m
Lord Alli: "I have visited Syria on a number of occasions and held talks with President Assad on several".
Should have their ears cut off.
"Dear Parents
Huge thanks to all pupils and colleagues who played their part in the whole school Open Morning last Saturday and congratulations to the Admissions department for their expert management of a large and complex operation. Interest in [school] remains extremely strong, boosted by last summer’s outstanding examination results and, most importantly, a high degree of satisfaction amongst current pupils and parents."
Most of the impacts reported so far are in Florida and Georgia, but here are latest updates (with last hour) from NYT:
> The French Broad River between Asheville and Hendersonville, N.C., has already reached a record height, and forecasters say it may climb another 9 feet before it crests later Friday.
> “We are considering all roads closed,” said Lillian Govus, a [Buncombe?] county spokeswoman. “We cannot support people traveling at this time,” she said, partly because it is too dangerous for emergency workers to help anyone who becomes stranded.
> Local officials in the Asheville, N.C., area have ordered mandatory evacuations along the Swannanoa River, which runs east from the city through Buncombe County. Forecasters expect the river to reach the highest level ever recorded [with would be IIRC the 1916 flood, also caused by tropical storm].
> As Helene continues moving inland, forecasters warned of a high risk of flash flooding in western North Carolina, particularly along the Appalachian Mountains. A flash flood emergency was issued for Asheville, N.C. until early afternoon.
Its industrial prices that are relevant and indeed the UK is expensive , but its more like 25 - 30% more than EU countries, but roughly treble USA (and indeed Scandanavia).
If countries are committed to slowing climate change (for those of us who believe in it) then maybe the next trade war will be around industrial energy prices.
We have Putins Russia, a never ending theocracy in Iran, a failed state in Venezuela plus near war in the middle east, yet Oil and Gas prices are now falling.
What happens when we get regime change and fossil fuels fall further ?
Who will be rushing to install solar & wind then.
Britain collectively, private and public sector, has lived beyond its means for many decades. For a while this was partly financed by oil and gas revenue, but most of that revenue is in the past. It was also financed by selling off British assets, but the money raised was spent on current expenditure (public and private) and not invested.
In order to adjust and start to improve things Britain has to do several things.
1. It has to live within its means and stop selling off capital assets to fund current expenditure.
2. It has to increase investment.
3. It also has to service the debt and pay rent to foreign investors.
All three steps involve cutting current expenditure (or consumption), which is political suicide.
It would, of course, be easier to adjust the earlier one starts, but the reckoning has been deferred so long I don't see a politician offering to bring it forward until forced to do so.
Even most of the people who recognise there is a problem are in partial denial, and expect other people to pay the costs of the reckoning. Whether that is Tories pointing the finger of blame at wasteful public spending, or lefties wanting to tax landlords, or the young wanting to tax pensioners, etc.
Obviously a case can be made why one group or another should shoulder a greater share of the burden, but the problem is, I believe, large enough that everyone would have to contribute. You'd really all have to be in it together this time.
Doesn't mean I agree with the policy - I don't.
It would also mitigate the increasing inadequacy of the grid to move power from where it's produced to where the demand is (which means we pay producers not to input power into on the system).
No one is going to say to Labour if five years, thank goodness debt to gdp is falling, don't worry about the hospitals in disrepair, or that you missed your housing targets.
EXCLUSIVE & NEW: Based on emails sent to us by a source, allegedly @Rasmussen_Poll is paid by non-profits for polls, then Ted Carroll @mediainvestors previews the results directly with @susiewiles2024, @jmclghln & @DanScavino in violation of laws. Emails:
https://x.com/AmericanMuck/status/1839419522555515023
If inflation is 2% that's a pretty low roi required for a government project to be worth it.
Where do you draw the line? We have millions out of work for health reasons - is fixing them investment?
Wind and solar are in themselves are cheap BUT its the back up for when they are not producing, storage costs, grid costs etc alongside the 1/2 hourly price still being set by gas that load the cost.
Energy prices are a real issue but the UK will never compete to make say Aluminium which requires an enormous amount of consistent electricity and was often tied to hydro power.
Productivity, labour skills, capital investment, poor infrastructure and exit from the EU are all as big or bigger issues for manufacturing.
#LegendaryModestyKlaxon
But for now, you can't - and Brown certainly didn't.
https://www.pacco-interreg.com/carbon-restoring-the-balance/
There is too the small issue of balancing development and keeping this as a green and pleasant land, rather than Megacity One.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/04/the-state-of-process-the-process-state/
https://bsky.app/profile/jwsidders.bsky.social/post/3l52gpw2m3m2d
Which might also be an incentive for local communities to support (eg) wind farm development.
Building a bigger grid to mitigate the problem is both expensive and not quick - though it's also part of the solution.
But the basic point is that our electricity market isn't really a market.
trump released a new shoe design (a timberland boot) but since they're not officially made in collaboration with timberland, he can't use their name. price is $200.
similar off-market timbs can be had on alibaba for $9.98 (or $6.56 if you purchase over 1000 pairs)
https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1839675651714130104
No wonder MAGA is complaining about the cost of living.
How do you invest in rail in the north west (as an example) when all the experienced skilled people are working on HS2 ?
A huge investment is required in the National Grid - they use to take about 20-30 apprentices on a year with a high quality 3 year apprenticeships. That was accross overhead lines and sub stations.
Probably need to take 10 times that.
George Osborne's cut to insfrastructure spending, while feather bedding pensioners has done long term catastrophic damage that will take decades to reverse.
The triple lock now costs an additional £11bn a year comapred to the old pension increases. Take a billion back off pensioners and you would think they were being sent to the workhouse.
There is you reason why we have crumbling roads, stone age rail between Liverpool and Hull and delay for ever things like the Lower Thames Crossing.
George Osborne worst Chancellor of last 100 years.
David Blunkett worst Home Sec. of last 100 years.
Still they hang around the public space like a bad spell.
Well, three idiots throwing paint at Van Gogh's on the day that two other idiots have been jailed for the same. I trust we will see the same expeditious punishment here. They can't say they don't know what to expect...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c243v5m0r0lo
But then, in theory, there was a whole bunch of work done on fire safety standards before Grenfell. One can be forgiven for worrying as to whether the necessary action is being taken.
I wonder if any of our Laffer curve fans will be noting the relative price inelasticity and wondering how we could maximise further the revenue raised?
NEW THREAD
I'm not sure what the appropriate level of potential gas generation would be, but having the ability to retain such a safety net is obviously a good thing until we have tidal or battery backups ready to go. Similar with coal in a worst case scenario.
I'm sure most people polled would agree with that. They are not exclusive positions.
Or perhaps the remit provided to OFGEM will be tweaked to achieve the same end.
This is obviously one reason why we need a well-resourced and independent Press to keep an eye on these sorts of things, but so much of the commentary is poisoned by special interests, and so it concludes renewables are worthless, rather than pointing out the additional measures that are required, that it becomes hard to get an honest view.
The UK renewables were 43% of the total in the last 12 months
For South Korea that number was 19%
So why is electricity in the UK 3.5x higher than in S.Korea?
And that's the problem with almost all the new "alternative" energy sources, like tidal and mini nukes and the like. What do you do when there's no demand for their power because the sun is shining?
Every home, every business, every factory, every school, every bus shelter is going to be covered in solar panels... because solar panels become cheaper every day. Already, they are becoming the cheapest building material.
So, how do other energy sources compete? The price of electricity during the day is going to be close to zero. And battery prices are collapsing too: homes will have their own battery backups, because that will be the cheapest.
My personal view is that natural gas is the easiest, cheapest backup at a country level. It's dispatchable, cheap, reliable, relatively clean and by far the easiest way to provide cover in the event you were to have a multi-month period with no wind and cloudy weather.
(But do remember that once you have enough panels, then even in winter in the UK you will have at least enough energy to cover daylight hours. And in time and with enough batteries, probably enough to cover nighttime too.)
one for the file under olds not news scrapbook
Let's see if it works.
The graph quoted ends in 2023, which was in the Ukraine War fossil fuel supply crisis.
The Telegrunt link cited in the thread translates 2023 as 'now' in Sept 2024, and even quotes UK Steel pointing out that the driving cause is "overdependence on fossil fuels". Roll on windmills.
However, even after this huge discount UK Steel said power remained roughly twice as expensive as in Germany.
It blamed the disparity on the UK’s electricity generation mix being “more dependent on gas”, with high natural gas prices pushing up UK power prices.
The UK generated 33.7pc of its power using gas in 2023, compared to 17.1pc in Germany and just 5.9pc in nuclear-dominated France.
In the UK, wind was in second, generating 28.7pc. But the wholesale price of electricity is set by the most expensive method needed to meet demand.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/26/britain-burdened-most-expensive-electricity-prices-in-world/
/sarc
Which brings me to a small suggestion: The UK should build SMRs and export them to places where they are especially needed. I think the UK, like the US, could build a SMR within a year, and could build follow-ons for export within five years.
With the right leadership in your government and companies, of course.