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Inevitability, even the MRP says it is too close to call – politicalbetting.com
Inevitability, even the MRP says it is too close to call – politicalbetting.com
Our new U.S. presidential election MRP just dropped ?Harris 256Trump 235 – Tossups 47You can explore the data and build your own projections at https://t.co/WEBsYQeS21, and follow @YouGovAmerica for all our latest data from the White House race https://t.co/nLzoRKTuUI
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Yes, I know immigration, but otherwise you would expect it to be the other way around.
It does underline the huge uncertainty in this election, which is very bad for everyone given one of the candidates is, to quote Sergey Witte, not fit to run a village post office.
Edit - but yes, Harris is clearly going to win the popular vote. But so would Biden have done. Heck, even H Clinton and Gore did that.
And no one likes to go there or talk or listen to them very much.
Melania Trump has blamed the Democrats and mainstream media for "fuelling a toxic atmosphere" and empowering those who "want to do harm" to her husband
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1839555221162246609
New comments are appearing at the top and, for me, they have always appeared at the bottom.
The thing I really hate about those types of trips are the ones where people are off to build a school or something. Just don't do that if you want to go to the place go and play with the children for a few days and teach them some english say but pay some local tradesmen the going local rate to the do the work. They will get more money and the work will be half decent..
Biden has spent much of his presidency in bringing back manufacturing, very much concentrated in those states.
It's reflected in the VP picks of both slates; the revival of Democrats in contending for and winning state governments; and in much if the infrastructure spending bill too.
And even the economic dominance of the east and west coasts is beginning to be challenged by states like Texas.
And recently Democrats have shown more interest in campaigning in rural areas - see for example Elissa Slotkin (who is now running for the Michigan Senate seat).
"Donald Trump heaped praise on “popular” Sir Keir Starmer ahead of the first meeting between the pair on Thursday night."
Some cheer for the PB Left
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/26/starmer-talks-trump-unavailable-harris/
But the electoral college mucks everything up. Its complexities make it pretty much impossible for anyone to have a firm idea of what is going to happen. It's all reading tea leaves.
But if they do, it supports the anecdotal evidence of a surge in support for Harris there. Heard the Floridian Cubans are none too happy about the "send them back" rhetoric - which is being perceived as a more general sentiment than just Haitians. If Trump loses Florida - still a planet-sized if - then JD Vance pushing the immigrant pet menu will win it for Harris. With 30 EC votes, Florida negates both Pennsylvania (19) and Arizona (11).
And I'd guess that US media is quite possibly more diverse in its attention than our London centric equivalent.
Not too long ago, a lead of 3% could give you a 100 seat lead in the EC.
Indeed I doubt many Americans are aware he only got a third of the vote.
I wonder if any aide reminded Trump of what Lammy (who was at the meeting) has said about him ? Probably not.
But it's Trump and he seems to have a weird ability of celebrity to bend reality around himself and partisanship is so strong, even lots of Republicans who think he's crackers will vote for him because it means government will be packed with their people. Trump's great attribute from the point of view of the US right, and evangelicals in particular was that no President before was quite so willing to trample norms to get their judges and officials in. The so-called 'Project 2025' is about completing that job, as they see it. But what he's often saying can't be covered with a straight face without pointing out it's quite mad.
From there, you are really trying to editorialise to explain it and hit the spot of where the election is to get the feel of why it is where it is. No doubt we'll see much more coverage from the seven swing states - from UK outlets - as the election gets closer. Most won't have sent out all their people and resources yet so will still be largely covering the he said/she said from Washington and NYC still rather than the deep dive reporting from the places that matter.
I don't know that they're yet seriously contesting the presidential vote in either ?
Emhoff was in Texas this week, FWIW.
They still have some good journalists, and some of their long read pieces are excellent.
The hardline GOP media just puts out nonsense like this.
Watters: Kamala Harris is like a child. She hasn't put a single thought into anything and says whatever... She doesn't share.. she's mean. And she's not allowed to sit at the grown-up table because it she can't behave. She's spoiled and she's sheltered from real-life..
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1839458923591659893
Which I don't think you'll learn much from.
Whatever one thinks about the idea that the flyover states shouldn't be overlooked, an electoral system where some bits of geography carry more clout per voter than others is an awfully rum one.
A 3% win for Trump is unlikely though I think.
hmmm
I thought that was *his* role in the relationship?
And while the new Labour government may end up embezzling the state on the same scale as the previous Conservative one, they haven't yet.
For what's basically a two party system, that's one helluva tilt on the table.
(The UK equivalent- that Labour tend to get more seats than the Conservatives for a given vote share- is a bit more justified. That's about multi-party FPTP and the way that there's more LibLab slosh than LibCon. July 4 just took that to the absurd max.)
This creates the weird explanations of why the real Trump is somewhat distant from the ideal. The crimes etc. To bridge the gap between the real and the imagined saviour. Or should I say Saviour?
The US really, really, doesn't do UNS.
Starmer doesn't have to be good (whether operationally or morally) to be a big improvement on what went before.
"Let he who is without sin cast the first stone" is an excellent moral standard to hold oneself to, but it isn't practical politics.
Many of those same people are predicting dire things about a Trump win in 2024.
Trump's team could do worse than to highlight what his opponents said, and what Trump actually did.
(I think I got my reaction to Trump's win in 2016 about right, sadly. Not instant negative change, but a slow reversal on rights in America.)
Taking
PA
GA
NC
MI
AZ
WI
NV
as toss up states, leaves
139354801 in Democrat states
134159957 in GOP states
61400137 in the toss ups.
Second, no-one cared when they could see Reagan or Bush's decline, so why should this time be different?
Third, Trump, however flawed, is ‘our guy’ in a forced choice election and that counts for a lot, just as it did during Joe Biden's faux pas.
In addition, they have spent the last 4 years installing, where they can, people throughout the system, who will do whatever Trump wants.
Any accountants in that want to comment? Am I right?
It isn't hard to get accounts from vox pops about the rust belt/nationalist saviour that Trump is. Nor is it hard (I think) to access what Trump has to say. Hope that helps.
The two things that are hard and necessary are these: Analysis of what a Trump led USA will do in domestic and foreign policy; and the extent to which it could be a threat to either the internatioal (dis)order or the American constitution.
And secondly, a rational account which can represent Trump as other than a crook and a danger.
Of what I have seen, the Economist is the best source for the first (answer: wait and see, but he is much more prepared for radical action than last time and only God knows about the international order under Trump but he doesn't like wars and he does like other demagogues).
The second can't be done SFAICS. It would need an American Matt Goodwin. Is there one?
There's not much original journalism.
Labour: 32% (-1)
Conservatives: 22% (+1)
Lib Dems: 13% (=)
Reform UK: 18% (=)
Greens: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Others: 6% (=)
https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/
One lives in Miami and the other in Houston, cities far more dangerous than any in England any day of the year.
Ted Cruz won Texas in 2018 with 50.89% - pretty close considering Texas has not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. Since his election, in February 2021, during a historic winter storm, up to 4.3 million Texas residents were left without power and millions of others without drinking water, including Cruz and his family. In the middle of the storm, Cruz and his family were spotted on a plane heading to Cancún, Mexico, where they planned to stay at the luxury Ritz Carlton hotel and escape their home. We'll see how much that has hurt him, but polling has recently showed the race to be toss-up.
I don't think anyway expects Tester to win again. But spending on both Texas and Florida could yet allow both to fall and keep the Senate with the Democrats in what is a very tough set of elections for them.
The extent to which Florida and/or Texas could go to Harris in 2024 as a result of down-ticket voting against unpopular Republican incumbents is intriguing. We'll know in six weeks.
I couldn't say to what extent most Americans view themselves as citizens of their State, taking a collective decision as Texans, or Michiganders, who they would like to be President, as opposed to a collective decision as Americans. Arguably the US has become predominantly a Unitary state over the centuries, and the voting system for President is an anachronism from its Federal origins.
If the EU were to start electing [one of] its Presidents directly I think an Electoral College system might be the best place to start, rather than a simple direct vote.
Imagine Labour and Tories are level on seats each winning their seats by 50-40. The Tories will receive more votes because the turnout is higher in their seats.
Morning Consult meanwhile has Harris ahead by 6% in Nevada, 3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Pennsylvania, 2% in North Carolina and 4% in Michigan and Arizona by 3%.
Georgia is tied
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-09-26/harris-holds-thin-lead-over-trump-in-swing-state-poll-election-2024
The public can rightly have no interest in any of the legalities, and think this doesn't smell right. And that's fine. If you can't cope with that you shouldn't be a politician.
He also praised Nige too unsurprisingly 'Mr Trump went on to praise Reform UK leader Nigel Farage as well, saying: "I think Nigel is great, I've known him for a long time."
"He had a great election too, picked up a lot of seats, more seats than he was allowed to have actually.
"They acknowledged that he won but for some reason you have a strange system over there, you might win them but you don't get them."
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-keir-starmer-to-meet-with-donald-trump-to-establish-a-relationship-13222644
Yet while Trump found time to meet Starmer, it seems Harris couldn't find a slot in her diary to see him, meeting Zelensky instead
I think there are lots of Presidents who aren't elected by a simple majority vote among adult citizens.
With Trump's marbles losage, he's clearly not as sharp as in 2016 - the zingers aren't as quick for one thing. There's a slight tiredness that wasn't there before. But I'm not really commenting on that - more that it's very difficult to report and judge how to cover him, because you can't do what you'd do with most politicians and report their words straight. Because they wouldn't make any sense.
If Harris, or say, Keir Starmer say something then it's fair to say that's Democrat or Labour policy or their attitude and you can judge if it's good or bad. Trump-supporting as well as neutral or critical media has to some extent act as Trump whisperers and deciphering whether he actually means x or y or whether he's switched on the TV and got hugely upset about something he'll have forgotten about in a few days.
Why ale house accountants continue to post such rubbish is beyond me.
The provision of 10 Downing Street as accommodation is a BIK and if you google it you will find Sunaks broad tax details
There must be a point at which this plummeting figure becomes game changing. So which way it goes is important. One to watch.
Doesn't like wars sounds good to me. As for does like "other demagogues" you mean people in charge of repressive regimes that you/ our govt don't happen to approve of. As opposed to the people in charge of repressive regimes who you/our govt does approve of.
Trade wars on the other hand. Trump loves those. If his tariff plans get anywhere near the statute books then we'll be completing the 1930s bingo card.
I thought that was an issue long resolved. From Wikipedia (but largely quoting the judge in the court case: .
Has something emerged since then to overturn that?
LRG? Or does GLR sounds better? LRG perhaps too similar sounding to LLG. Or do we add SNP and other too? I think we should
SLORG (the). The SLORG has stayed flat on 46%
Obvious like our FPTP with single member constituencies, politics has to bend itself around the realities, and democrats need to work harder in small population states because of the oddities, just as Labour worked hard to come first by a bit in 400 seats with 34% of the vote rather than come first by loads in 300 seats with 40% of the vote.
But the USA system still sits uncomfortably.