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Jenrick remains the strong favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039
    Leon said:

    OMFG they’re worse than the Tories

    NEW: no guarantee HS2 will go all the way to Euston. reeves says looking at all options.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1838111655244243053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They should scrap the whole project and spend the cash on more worthwhile projects, of which there is no shortage, or tax cuts.

    HS2 was a bargain at £20 billion, just about defensible at £50 billion but at £100 billion+ it's a complete waste of money.
  • I am remain unclear as to what precise failing has been committed in "freebiegate" and what system or behaviours critics feel we should see instead. Here's my attempt to break it down.

    # Political donations are wrong
    Then how does anyone, except the richest, afford to campaign? No democratic country has found an alternative to political donations. The US considers it a central part of free speech.

    Just looking at your first point, the US is a really bad example. The eyewatering sums needed (a single senate seat race can involve spending similar to that of an entire UK General election) to fund political advertising during elections drives elected representatives to spend a huge part of their time fund-raising, and gives lobbyists an influence over law makers which is almost entirely related to how much money they can spend. I think limiting the maximum any one person or organisation can donate and encouraging parties to get small amounts from lots of people (some sort of membership perhaps) is much healthier.
    Thanks for a concrete response. I think the UK does well by capping campaigning spend, definitely let's keep that. Capping donations has been suggested, but has been hard to introduce, as the Conservatives like the idea of capping donations by organisations (the trades unions), while Labour like the idea of capping donations by individuals (the big Tory donors).

    I think there may be some merit in the system. I did note there are challenges in implementation, in gaming the system to give more through multiple routes. The big question is where to set the cap. Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets aren't going to be affected, so I also am unclear whether a cap would assuage some people's anger over the current situation.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given to be used as raffle prizes: good.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given directly to senior politicians who then might think they owe you a favour: bad.

    Actually, I'd set the cap below what seems to be the going rate for Taylor Swift tickets...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    carnforth said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    OMFG they’re worse than the Tories

    NEW: no guarantee HS2 will go all the way to Euston. reeves says looking at all options.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1838111655244243053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    We have decided as a country to spend all our money on the NHS and pensions. And so any spare bits of cash must go to these two sacrosanct projects.
    It’s embarrassing . It’s pointless if HS2 doesn’t go to Euston .
    If we don't build HS2 what we really show is that we can't build projects nowadays..
    It’s stupefying. It’s particularly stupefying for me as, for the last decade or so, I’ve watched them build and prep the HS2 infra out of Euston. With all the attendant disruption. Visible from my living room

    The idea it might now be for… nothing??

    😶🫣

    It would be interesting to get Starmer’s take given that this is literally his constituency
    Maybe he will still be against it like in 2015 when he was trying to get elected, so happy.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/hs2vote?sp=19&sq=HS2
    "I firmly believe that the best chance of protecting residents and traders in Holborn and St Pancras from the destruction of HS2 is if I can persuade the incoming Government, particularly if it is Labour led, either that HS2 should not proceed at all or that Old Oak Common should be the London terminus."
    Another sign that SKS is utterly stoopid. OOC as a terminus for HS2 is insane, and always was.

    But he also played his part in getting the HS2-HS1 link cut.
    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cmhs2/petitions/1413.pdf
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Nigelb said:

    GOP Congressman (and long time prize idiot) comes out in favour of gun registries.

    Comer: "I don't think anyone believes that Kamala Harris is a gun owner, but if she is she needs to tell the American people what type of gun she has."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1837865206862459367

    I'm hoping it's a

    image

    As God & Major Kong intended.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405

    I did predict this as the value of the gift felt massively undervalued.

    Angela Rayner faces an investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner over the use of a $2.5million New York apartment lent by Lord Alli, the Labour peer.

    The Telegraph can reveal that the Conservatives have written to Daniel Greenberg, the parliamentary commissioner for standards, seeking an investigation.

    The Tory letter claims that Ms Rayner’s “failure to properly register” the New York flat donation means the House of Commons code of conduct may have been breached.

    It comes after it emerged that Sam Tarry, a former Labour MP, joined Ms Rayner for parts of her stay at the flat from Dec 29 to Jan 2 but was not named in the parliamentary declaration.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/22/angela-rayner-parliamentary-standard-commissioner-lord-alli/

    You did indeed.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803

    HYUFD said:

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    3m
    BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise

    Well of course. This was always coming when they saw what others were getting.
    I can see Uni strikes coming. 2.5% isn't cutting the mustard.
    But uni pay awards aren’t negotiated with the government.
    I know, but the optics for hard working academics (I know, I know) etc.
    40% of unis are in deficit iirc.
    Mainly due to government tying their hands with the fees they can charge. The two things are linked. Raise the fee levels, allow unis to educate home students again without preferentially targetting overseas fee and pay a fair wage.
    Raise the fee levels for degrees with high graduate earning premiums eg law, engineering, Medicine, economics and IT and freeze the rest.
    I'd do it the other way round: charge less for degrees that are useful. Most of the funding is going to come from the government anyway.
    I think we should be careful with conflating "high graduate earning premiums" and "useful".
    Agreed, but I think Fysics_Teachers approach is the right one. I think 'useful' in this circumstance might equate to 'there is an identified shortage of'.
    So it might be mathematicians. Or it might also be nurses or teachers.
    If you want to do a degree which falls into the 'less useful' or 'no shortage of' category, obviously the university sector will still accept your custom with open arms. But the state might be less likely to subsidise you.
  • HYUFD said:

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    3m
    BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise

    Well of course. This was always coming when they saw what others were getting.
    I can see Uni strikes coming. 2.5% isn't cutting the mustard.
    But uni pay awards aren’t negotiated with the government.
    I know, but the optics for hard working academics (I know, I know) etc.
    40% of unis are in deficit iirc.
    Mainly due to government tying their hands with the fees they can charge. The two things are linked. Raise the fee levels, allow unis to educate home students again without preferentially targetting overseas fee and pay a fair wage.
    Raise the fee levels for degrees with high graduate earning premiums eg law, engineering, Medicine, economics and IT and freeze the rest.
    I'd do it the other way round: charge less for degrees that are useful. Most of the funding is going to come from the government anyway.
    I think we should be careful with conflating "high graduate earning premiums" and "useful".
    Four out of the five he listed looked pretty useful to me...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Nigelb said:

    GOP Congressman (and long time prize idiot) comes out in favour of gun registries.

    Comer: "I don't think anyone believes that Kamala Harris is a gun owner, but if she is she needs to tell the American people what type of gun she has."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1837865206862459367

    If I had to guess, I'd say a SIG Sauer P220 Compact.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    And in the meantime, more crushes on trains out of Euston:
    https://x.com/OutsideEdge___/status/1837839895034757389

    Still, the DfT and treasury will love the sardines as it means more money...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    OMFG they’re worse than the Tories

    NEW: no guarantee HS2 will go all the way to Euston. reeves says looking at all options.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1838111655244243053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They should scrap the whole project and spend the cash on more worthwhile projects, of which there is no shortage, or tax cuts.

    HS2 was a bargain at £20 billion, just about defensible at £50 billion but at £100 billion+ it's a complete waste of money.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/28/norfolk-marsh-bridge-national-trust

    If we want things, then £250K plank footbridges have to go.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/04/the-state-of-process-the-process-state/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    GOP Congressman (and long time prize idiot) comes out in favour of gun registries.

    Comer: "I don't think anyone believes that Kamala Harris is a gun owner, but if she is she needs to tell the American people what type of gun she has."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1837865206862459367

    If I had to guess, I'd say a SIG Sauer P220 Compact.
    Would be fun if it was Old Painless on a truck mount, though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    OMFG they’re worse than the Tories

    NEW: no guarantee HS2 will go all the way to Euston. reeves says looking at all options.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1838111655244243053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    They should scrap the whole project and spend the cash on more worthwhile projects, of which there is no shortage, or tax cuts.

    HS2 was a bargain at £20 billion, just about defensible at £50 billion but at £100 billion+ it's a complete waste of money.
    In British Columbia last week I biked down an amazing disused mountain top railway - all tunnels and bridges - which the British Empire smashed through the Monashee Mountains in about 3 years - linking east and west Canada

    Now it takes us 30 years to NOT build a railway from West Acton to Solihull
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    A truly odd coincidence that's remarkably similar to the number of days until the US election.

    Netanyahu will not engage in any cease-fire and hostage talks in the next 45 days, nor will he accept any diplomatic ideas concerning Lebanon
    https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1837864545437540438
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    And in the meantime, more crushes on trains out of Euston:
    https://x.com/OutsideEdge___/status/1837839895034757389

    Still, the DfT and treasury will love the sardines as it means more money...

    I will give you this

    https://x.com/FreakyEmporium/status/1837872275418218747

    which is the result of announcing the platform 2 minutes before the supposed departure time..

    Now I was told earlier this week that Euston is safe thanks to the new safety measures that were implemented last autumn - but I saw no sign of that yesterday on my twitter feed..
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,071

    I am remain unclear as to what precise failing has been committed in "freebiegate" and what system or behaviours critics feel we should see instead. Here's my attempt to break it down.

    # Political donations are wrong
    Then how does anyone, except the richest, afford to campaign? No democratic country has found an alternative to political donations. The US considers it a central part of free speech.

    Just looking at your first point, the US is a really bad example. The eyewatering sums needed (a single senate seat race can involve spending similar to that of an entire UK General election) to fund political advertising during elections drives elected representatives to spend a huge part of their time fund-raising, and gives lobbyists an influence over law makers which is almost entirely related to how much money they can spend. I think limiting the maximum any one person or organisation can donate and encouraging parties to get small amounts from lots of people (some sort of membership perhaps) is much healthier.
    Thanks for a concrete response. I think the UK does well by capping campaigning spend, definitely let's keep that. Capping donations has been suggested, but has been hard to introduce, as the Conservatives like the idea of capping donations by organisations (the trades unions), while Labour like the idea of capping donations by individuals (the big Tory donors).

    I think there may be some merit in the system. I did note there are challenges in implementation, in gaming the system to give more through multiple routes. The big question is where to set the cap. Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets aren't going to be affected, so I also am unclear whether a cap would assuage some people's anger over the current situation.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given to be used as raffle prizes: good.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given directly to senior politicians who then might think they owe you a favour: bad.

    Actually, I'd set the cap below what seems to be the going rate for Taylor Swift tickets...
    Currently, MPs routinely report getting donations of £2k, £5k, £10k, £20k. Even Taylor Swift tickets are small compared to those. (Ed Davey declared Swift tickets to the value of £584.) So, are those bigger cash donations also problematic, or is it something about getting tickets for personal use that makes them more concerning?

    A low cap would severely curtail some fundraising. I worry that would leave candidates like Rishi Sunak and Rupert Lowe at an advantage.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    I am remain unclear as to what precise failing has been committed in "freebiegate" and what system or behaviours critics feel we should see instead. Here's my attempt to break it down.

    # Political donations are wrong
    Then how does anyone, except the richest, afford to campaign? No democratic country has found an alternative to political donations. The US considers it a central part of free speech.

    Just looking at your first point, the US is a really bad example. The eyewatering sums needed (a single senate seat race can involve spending similar to that of an entire UK General election) to fund political advertising during elections drives elected representatives to spend a huge part of their time fund-raising, and gives lobbyists an influence over law makers which is almost entirely related to how much money they can spend. I think limiting the maximum any one person or organisation can donate and encouraging parties to get small amounts from lots of people (some sort of membership perhaps) is much healthier.
    Thanks for a concrete response. I think the UK does well by capping campaigning spend, definitely let's keep that. Capping donations has been suggested, but has been hard to introduce, as the Conservatives like the idea of capping donations by organisations (the trades unions), while Labour like the idea of capping donations by individuals (the big Tory donors).

    I think there may be some merit in the system. I did note there are challenges in implementation, in gaming the system to give more through multiple routes. The big question is where to set the cap. Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets aren't going to be affected, so I also am unclear whether a cap would assuage some people's anger over the current situation.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given to be used as raffle prizes: good.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given directly to senior politicians who then might think they owe you a favour: bad.

    Actually, I'd set the cap below what seems to be the going rate for Taylor Swift tickets...
    The cap has to be identical to the cap companies apply to the workers to avoid being hit by the Bribery Act 2010.

    Which basically means everything above a bottle of wine - reporting it on a register and thinking that's enough doesn't wash in this day and age..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    GOP Congressman (and long time prize idiot) comes out in favour of gun registries.

    Comer: "I don't think anyone believes that Kamala Harris is a gun owner, but if she is she needs to tell the American people what type of gun she has."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1837865206862459367

    If I had to guess, I'd say a SIG Sauer P220 Compact.
    Would be fun if it was Old Painless on a truck mount, though.
    Definitely didn’t watch this two decades ago, thinking it would be one hell of a fun day out!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KmAOtkKf00
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    eek said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    OMFG they’re worse than the Tories

    NEW: no guarantee HS2 will go all the way to Euston. reeves says looking at all options.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1838111655244243053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    :/

    I hope one of the "options" is the whole thing + northern powerhouse + a quadrupling of bus services + Dutch style cycle infrastructure + trams absolutely everywhere

    A man can dream
    That's the bear minimum required to get the standard of living up north back to the level you find in other parts of western Europe.

    We also need a few proper metro systems
    not just trams.
    You’re right.

    Too many bears can impact the standard of living
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Nigelb said:

    GOP Congressman (and long time prize idiot) comes out in favour of gun registries.

    Comer: "I don't think anyone believes that Kamala Harris is a gun owner, but if she is she needs to tell the American people what type of gun she has."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1837865206862459367

    I'm hoping it's a

    image

    As God & Major Kong intended.
    Is that @Dura_Ace’s anti burglar system?

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited September 23

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...

    More interesting is that Williams is apparently a Steps fan, from the naming of her daughter.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    eek said:

    I am remain unclear as to what precise failing has been committed in "freebiegate" and what system or behaviours critics feel we should see instead. Here's my attempt to break it down.

    # Political donations are wrong
    Then how does anyone, except the richest, afford to campaign? No democratic country has found an alternative to political donations. The US considers it a central part of free speech.

    Just looking at your first point, the US is a really bad example. The eyewatering sums needed (a single senate seat race can involve spending similar to that of an entire UK General election) to fund political advertising during elections drives elected representatives to spend a huge part of their time fund-raising, and gives lobbyists an influence over law makers which is almost entirely related to how much money they can spend. I think limiting the maximum any one person or organisation can donate and encouraging parties to get small amounts from lots of people (some sort of membership perhaps) is much healthier.
    Thanks for a concrete response. I think the UK does well by capping campaigning spend, definitely let's keep that. Capping donations has been suggested, but has been hard to introduce, as the Conservatives like the idea of capping donations by organisations (the trades unions), while Labour like the idea of capping donations by individuals (the big Tory donors).

    I think there may be some merit in the system. I did note there are challenges in implementation, in gaming the system to give more through multiple routes. The big question is where to set the cap. Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets aren't going to be affected, so I also am unclear whether a cap would assuage some people's anger over the current situation.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given to be used as raffle prizes: good.
    Taylor Swift and Arsenal tickets given directly to senior politicians who then might think they owe you a favour: bad.

    Actually, I'd set the cap below what seems to be the going rate for Taylor Swift tickets...
    The cap has to be identical to the cap companies apply to the workers to avoid being hit by the Bribery Act 2010.

    Which basically means everything above a bottle of wine - reporting it on a register and thinking that's enough doesn't wash in this day and age..
    I have to report anything above a desk diary, pen or mug.

    Any bottles of anything at Xmas, and this is something that really does not happen anywhere near as much as it did even a decade ago, go into a raffle open to all but its generally the same faces who "win" every year:smiley:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    edited September 23
    Leon said:

    The PB lefties seem to be taking the Total Shittiness of the Starmer Government quite badly

    I guess it must be painful tho. 14 years of hope and waiting and all that patiently invested faith, and then… THIS

    It's not that bad because I didn't have high hopes going in to it.

    Also, so far, the largest decision of substance has been on cutting WFA, and given where I think the country is at the moment - budget deficit too large, but need to increase investment spending - that definitely has the air of a decision that was so right it should have been done years ago.

    Obviously it's great that PB Righties have been able to take to the pleasures of opposition so quickly and with so much enthusiasm. Right-wingers railing at a Labour government just feels like the natural order of things. You Righties were desperate to be in opposition for years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,955

    HYUFD said:

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    3m
    BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise

    Well of course. This was always coming when they saw what others were getting.
    I can see Uni strikes coming. 2.5% isn't cutting the mustard.
    But uni pay awards aren’t negotiated with the government.
    I know, but the optics for hard working academics (I know, I know) etc.
    40% of unis are in deficit iirc.
    Mainly due to government tying their hands with the fees they can charge. The two things are linked. Raise the fee levels, allow unis to educate home students again without preferentially targetting overseas fee and pay a fair wage.
    Raise the fee levels for degrees with high graduate earning premiums eg law, engineering, Medicine, economics and IT and freeze the rest.
    I'd do it the other way round: charge less for degrees that are useful. Most of the funding is going to come from the government anyway.
    Nursing and teaching and chemistry and physics degrees maybe. However if you are doing a high demand course with a high earnings premium like law, economics or medicine you should expect to pay high tuition fees for such a course
  • NEW THREAD

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    J.L. Partners 🇺🇸
    @J_L_Partners
    ·
    31m
    NEW: Single cat ladies are the most pro-Harris group in the country, second only to Black voters

    Voting intention amongst female, single, never married owners of cats:

    🔵 Kamala Harris: 65% (+56)
    🔴 Donald Trump: 9%

    1,000 likely voters, 11-16 Sept

    https://x.com/J_L_Partners/status/1838209156873920536
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,955
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MPs and members appear to be ignoring that people in every other political party are praying for a Jenrick win.

    Perhaps the Tories should ask themselves why the rest of us are so excited by the idea of a Jenrick win before they vote again...

    In a way, the government's current problems make the arrogance situation a bit worse. One of the attractions of Conservatives at their best is confidence and swagger, but it can go too far.

    Look at the comments here over the weekend. A lot of Conservatives seem convinced that 2029 is in the bag, in which case they can choose the leader they want rather than one chosen to please the wider electorate.

    I wonder if '79 to '83 is the temple?
    Michael Foot had a poll lead by the end of 1980, before the Falklands and SDP helped save Thatcher
    Indeed. Unless the Cons deal with Reform (surrender? merge? destroy? how?) they will be in the wilderness for ten years, just like SDP did to Labour
    Maybe though the SDP did pave the way for Blair, Roy Jenkins was his mentor
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    OMFG they’re worse than the Tories

    NEW: no guarantee HS2 will go all the way to Euston. reeves says looking at all options.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1838111655244243053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    We have decided as a country to spend all our money on the NHS and pensions. And so any spare bits of cash must go to these two sacrosanct projects.
    It’s desperate. I see no hope for this country. Just endless decline and decay

    All the rich will leave and Britain will look like the last scenes of “Threads”
    Why do you hate the rest of humanity so much? Not just Britain contempt for which you have shown for years, but the human race? What makes you such a superior being? I’d really love to know how you became infested with such a sense of superiority and virulent misanthropy?
    My innate superiority?

    Also: lol
    Yes. You’ve stated on here many times how much better you are than us. You described be specifically as “subhuman” and “scum” on at least one occasion. Why?
    Are you… alright? Serious question

    Sounds like you’re having a bit of a meltdown. Likewise @Anabobazina
    Hooray. I’m also mentally ill. Thanks for the diagnosis.
    I was being serious - and kind. Couple of weird outbursts from you. Not your normal style
    Oh, please…”kind”…you?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...

    More interesting is that Williams is apparently a Steps fan, from the naming of her daughter.
    Why even give the letter? Would have been perfectly easy to write this by just referring to 'my daughter'. Its not an early 20th C novel.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    Taz said:

    I did predict this as the value of the gift felt massively undervalued.

    Angela Rayner faces an investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner over the use of a $2.5million New York apartment lent by Lord Alli, the Labour peer.

    The Telegraph can reveal that the Conservatives have written to Daniel Greenberg, the parliamentary commissioner for standards, seeking an investigation.

    The Tory letter claims that Ms Rayner’s “failure to properly register” the New York flat donation means the House of Commons code of conduct may have been breached.

    It comes after it emerged that Sam Tarry, a former Labour MP, joined Ms Rayner for parts of her stay at the flat from Dec 29 to Jan 2 but was not named in the parliamentary declaration.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/22/angela-rayner-parliamentary-standard-commissioner-lord-alli/

    You did indeed.
    She doesn't face an investigation. That's jumping the gun. The Tories are seeking an investigation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,314

    Leon said:

    The PB lefties seem to be taking the Total Shittiness of the Starmer Government quite badly

    I guess it must be painful tho. 14 years of hope and waiting and all that patiently invested faith, and then… THIS

    It's not that bad because I didn't have high hopes going in to it.

    Also, so far, the largest decision of substance has been on cutting WFA, and given where I think the country is at the moment - budget deficit too large, but need to increase investment spending - that definitely has the air of a decision that was so right it should have been done years ago.

    Obviously it's great that PB Righties have been able to take to the pleasures of opposition so quickly and with so much enthusiasm. Right-wingers railing at a Labour government just feels like the natural order of things. You Righties were desperate to be in opposition for years.
    Yes some truth in that. Being in opposition is quite fun - you can really put the boot in. And Labour present quite the target

    I’m still surprised by the tantrum-throwing despondency of some PB lefties, however
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...

    More interesting is that Williams is apparently a Steps fan, from the naming of her daughter.
    She’s called 5, 6, 7, 8?
  • Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    3m
    BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise

    I mean 5.5% is pretty a decent pay rise, but given the crazy pay rises they've given to doctors and train drivers I say good on the nurses!
    I heard the pensioners got 10.1% followed by 8.5% in successive years but apparently those are fully deserved rather than crazy unlike those given to doctors and nurses.
    The question is could you live on the state pension ?
    That is one question. I could live on current state pension/pension credit if I really had to, but don't want to and am lucky enough that it is very unlikely.

    There are lots of other questions.

    Another question, "Will my generation and the ones that follow, get a universal non means tested state pension at all?"

    I suspect not, because regardless of what politicians promise, the numbers don't really stack up for that happening.
    I can understand the concern about the future state pension and why pension schemes are essential, but I do expect pension age to rise to 70 rather than means testing

    The state pension is £221.20 per week depending on your qualifying years which relates to just £958 per month
    Agreed – gradually increasing state pension age is by far the best answer.
    The basic problem is demographics. People are living longer. In principle, an average individual should pay in during his lifetime to cover his retirement. If he is now going to live until 85 rather than 75, working a few more years so he can pay in to cover that seems to me to be a win both for the individual – who gets more years alive – and for the state – which gets more contributions out of that individual.
    There will of course be dozens of variations on that and special cases. But that should be the average position.
    It is more lower birth rates than people living longer driving the next set of demographic issues (life expectancy down thanks to covid). Again generational wealth inequality, with the homes most suitable for families owned by pensioners and the younger generations expected to pay rent to the older ones to live in crowded flats exarcebates this further.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 181

    Leon said:

    OMFG they’re worse than the Tories

    NEW: no guarantee HS2 will go all the way to Euston. reeves says looking at all options.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1838111655244243053?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The bit to Euston hasn't been funded since Rishi decided to move the budget into the Northern Powerhouse, which err, fixed some potholes in Bromley.
    This nails how insane this site is. Tories pause all HS2 construction for Euston 18 months ago, and needlessly have a firesale of any land acquired north of Birmingham.

    Labour say they are "looking at all the options" and this is somehow "worse than the Tories".

    14 years of incompetence has left turds all over the place to clean up.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...

    More interesting is that Williams is apparently a Steps fan, from the naming of her daughter.
    She’s called 5, 6, 7, 8?
    Well, 8, apparently. But in base 26.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    France 47.4 (Aug 53.1)

    It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/694d0a3bd63944428e2042aaf17e9443

    Germany 47.2 (48.4)

    The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5455a5b6d984483ebb968a52881396d8

    “Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.

    Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
    How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
    Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
    European car production was up 11% in 2023.

    The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
    Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
    The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.

    In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
    The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
    I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.

    And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.

    Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
    That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
    One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline.
    Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
    So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
    But are the tips bad enough to leave us £50k in debt after three years? :open_mouth:
    So which subject?

    Politics? Something with a rhetorical name from Oxford? History? Religion after @Foxy ? Media Studies given the quantity of Telegrunt we have posted? Or IT?

    :smile:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,085
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...

    More interesting is that Williams is apparently a Steps fan, from the naming of her daughter.
    She’s called 5, 6, 7, 8?
    Well, 8, apparently. But in base 26.
    In base 26, 8 is 8. :(
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    Good afternoon everyone.

    Back to glasses. Specsavers have redesigned their "Offers" system to be even more complicated than before, so I've spent 15 minutes putting it into a spreadsheet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    MattW said:

    Good afternoon everyone.

    Back to glasses. Specsavers have redesigned their "Offers" system to be even more complicated than before, so I've spent 15 minutes putting it into a spreadsheet.

    Just as well you don’t need glasses to look at spreadsheets.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Good afternoon everyone.

    Back to glasses. Specsavers have redesigned their "Offers" system to be even more complicated than before, so I've spent 15 minutes putting it into a spreadsheet.

    Just as well you don’t need glasses to look at spreadsheets.
    Back in the 1980s in GEC, Lord Weinstock was rumoured to be a longer-term-than-everybody-else use Lotus-123 not Excel because it could display text large enough for him to read.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,085
    viewcode said:

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...

    More interesting is that Williams is apparently a Steps fan, from the naming of her daughter.
    She’s called 5, 6, 7, 8?
    Well, 8, apparently. But in base 26.
    In base 26, 8 is 8. :(
    Base 26 goes 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I,J,K,L,M,N,O,P,10,11,12,... So in this scenario "H" in base 26 is 17. See https://www.translatorscafe.com/unit-converter/en-US/numbers/3-29/decimal-base-26/

    Pause

    Ah, my coat. Thank you, so kind
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    YouGov

    With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?

    Dishonest: 36%
    The same as the rest: 31%
    Only interested in themselves: 31%
    Has unworkable policies: 27%
    Should not be near power: 27%
    Interested in public service: 22%
    Fit to govern: 19%
    Nasty: 18%
    Unprofessional: 17%
    Seem like normal people: 16%
    Weak: 16%
    Has sensible policies: 15%
    Moderate: 14%
    Has a clear sense of purpose: 14%
    Divided: 14%
    Competent: 14%
    Boring: 11%
    Extremist: 10%
    Trustworthy: 8%
    Likeable: 7%
    Powerful: 7%
    Weird: 6%
    Distinct: 2%

    Please tell me that Yougov has VI - I mean please.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/i-bumped-into-liz-truss-at-a-school-open-day-it-was-super-awks

    My wife bumped into Truss at the same place last week! Unless she was at two different sixth form open days last week. She didn't mention seeing Zoe Williams...

    More interesting is that Williams is apparently a Steps fan, from the naming of her daughter.
    She’s called 5, 6, 7, 8?
    Well, 8, apparently. But in base 26.
    In base 26, 8 is 8. :(
    Base 26 goes 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I,J,K,L,M,N,O,P,10,11,12,... So in this scenario "H" in base 26 is 17. See https://www.translatorscafe.com/unit-converter/en-US/numbers/3-29/decimal-base-26/

    Pause

    Ah, my coat. Thank you, so kind
    Criminally wasted, this, at the fag end of a thread.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited September 23
    Reuters - Liechtenstein votes to join IMF in referendum

    Liechtenstein voted to join the International Monetary Fund in a referendum on Sunday in a move aimed at integrating the tiny principality more deeply into multilateral affairs and creating a backstop for potential emergencies.

    By a margin of 55.8% to 44.2%, voters in the wealthy country sandwiched between Switzerland and Austria backed becoming the 191st member of the Washington-based fund, according to an official government tally.

    Membership was backed by Prince Alois, the acting head of state and heir to the throne, who said earlier this month it would underpin the financial stability of Liechtenstein and provide access to liquidity in the event of any emergency.

    Foreign Minister Dominique Hasler said the country had opted for the IMF after careful consideration in order to pursue an active foreign policy and do it in a multilateral organization that made sense for a nation of its size.

    Membership also offered an additional layer of security in case of potential crises, she told Reuters.

    "Because we've seen in the past that even countries that are doing well can benefit from being an IMF member," she said.

    Hasler said Liechtenstein would formally become a member after sealing its accession with the IMF on Oct. 21.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/liechtenstein-votes-join-imf-referendum-2024-09-22/

    For official results see:
    https://www.abstimmungen.li/resultat/33

    SSI - Note that IMF membership won majority of those voting in every community, with highest approval in Vaduz, capital of Liechtenstein (61.5%) and lowest in Treisen (50.1%).

    BTW (and maybe FYI) for those PBers who have NOT been keeping score at home, yesterday's vote was the 6th referendum in the Principality this year, with #7 scheduled for end of October - BOO!

    21 January (67.9% turnout) of 20,950 registered)
    > Mandatory photovoltaic panels on non-residential buildings = 66.6% Against
    > Reform of the energy efficiency standards = 65.2% Against
    > Electronic health records opt-in = 53.9% Against

    25 February (66.5% turnout)
    > Direct election of the members of government = 68.0% Against

    16 June (67.0% turnout)
    > Building a new state hospital = 53.7% For

    22 September (60.0% turnout)
    > Accession to the International Monetary Fund = 55.8% For

    AND next month
    27 October
    > Privatization of Radio Liechtenstein

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liechtenstein_referendums
  • YouGov

    With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?

    Dishonest: 36%
    The same as the rest: 31%
    Only interested in themselves: 31%
    Has unworkable policies: 27%
    Should not be near power: 27%
    Interested in public service: 22%
    Fit to govern: 19%
    Nasty: 18%
    Unprofessional: 17%
    Seem like normal people: 16%
    Weak: 16%
    Has sensible policies: 15%
    Moderate: 14%
    Has a clear sense of purpose: 14%
    Divided: 14%
    Competent: 14%
    Boring: 11%
    Extremist: 10%
    Trustworthy: 8%
    Likeable: 7%
    Powerful: 7%
    Weird: 6%
    Distinct: 2%

    Please tell me that Yougov has VI - I mean please.
    No they haven't
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    France 47.4 (Aug 53.1)

    It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/694d0a3bd63944428e2042aaf17e9443

    Germany 47.2 (48.4)

    The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5455a5b6d984483ebb968a52881396d8

    “Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.

    Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
    How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
    Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
    European car production was up 11% in 2023.

    The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
    Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
    The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.

    In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
    The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
    I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.

    And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.

    Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
    On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years.
    They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.

    Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
    And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.

    It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
    Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjuj1xB_Ze8

    In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
    That’s a very good video, thanks for linking.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    PB Tories have reached the 0.000000000000000134th stage of grief I see.

    Can someone find them a new site for group therapy so the rest of us can discuss politics?

    The problem you are having is we are discussing politics but you do not like it
    The site is now incredibly boring – a shame. It's the same five or six individuals droning on about declared donations that are made to politicians of all parties, day after day. I preferred @Leon 's AI spam to this. Even Guess Boris' Weight was more interesting.
    It's all muscle.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    eek said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    France 47.4 (Aug 53.1)

    It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/694d0a3bd63944428e2042aaf17e9443

    Germany 47.2 (48.4)

    The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5455a5b6d984483ebb968a52881396d8

    “Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.

    Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
    How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
    Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
    European car production was up 11% in 2023.

    The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
    Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
    The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.

    In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
    The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
    I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.

    And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.

    Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
    That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
    We have all sorts of opportunities today for people to access high quality resources and learn by themselves and, by and large, they don’t. There is value in being in a learning environment as part of a learning community, with human teachers.
    Bollocks we would learn by ourselves indeed many do, the thing holding many back from studying by ourselves to get a better job is the banhammers who hoarde certification unless you fall for the uni scam
This discussion has been closed.