Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o
He said that last time as well.
You momentarily misremembered that he believes he won in 2020.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
The west allowing China to own the EV market (and the solar market) has consequences.
If you think back around ten years, the arguments were all about 'why should we bother on climate change if China doesn't do anything ?' The opposite argument, which lost out, is because it was good investment.
Turns out China was quietly getting on with it. Biden's investments in domestic manufacturing are the right response, but half a decade later than might have been the case.
The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.
A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter, which is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.
One phenomenon going on quietly in the background, which should encourage the BoE to get off its arse on interest rates: the pound is the strongest it’s been in a while.
GBP:EUR 1.20, last seen in early 2022 before Truss etc, and before that briefly in Feb 2020.
GBP:USD 1.33, also the highest since Feb 2022.
Not quite the rates I grew up with (I remember the halcyon days of 2 dollars to the pound in the noughties) but the financial crisis put paid to any hope of those ever coming back.
A country which wants a higher exchange rate needs to:
1) Live within its means 2) Increase its savings rate 3) Improve its productivity 4) Create more wealth
Perhaps the main requirement for doing any of those is actually wanting to do so (as opposed to saying you want to).
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?
Murdoch has (and has) a very definite political agenda.
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
I wonder how much of the support of the EU for freedom of movement of the under 30s might be affected by:
1) The relative strength of the UK and EU economies
2) The likelihood of political turmoil in EU countries caused by unemployment among the under 30s.
Not much at all. It's a cultural rather than economic thing, and you're being very generous in your estimate of political engagement in younger people.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...
Literally my objections when it comes to planning are
1) does it directly impact someone?
if No it can be built.
The standard UK view (from about 5%) is that "It's a lovely view of rolling empty fields. Therefore building that factory impacts *me*. Therefore it must not happen."
And that gets listened to.
In Chablis, the attitude from the other 95% is "Shut up. We want the jobs and local taxes. This means better roads and schools."
In the Mâconnais there’s been some mild NIMBY activity recently. “Non aux aeoliennes” - the people of a few villages on a ridge that already looks out over the TGV line have been exercised about wind farms being planned for the ridge top. From what I can tell they seem to have succeeded. So it does happen.
There is also planning bureaucracy. We wanted to put a dark corrugated iron roof on our barn conversion. Serve, the mayor, said he’d like something a bit lighter as the proposed colour was a bit “Northern European”. We said fine and landed on a warm grey, which does look better. He waved it through.
Then several months later after building we get a very stern letter from the prefecture of Salome et Loire announcing our building is illegal because the roof is not in keeping with the region and the mayor had exceeded his authority in the matter. This despite nobody local actually objecting (because it’s pretty much invisible to everyone). Cue frantic exchanges of emails and an agreement on a compromise, with Serge getting a ticking off.
How fantastic that that is the french for wind turbine. Made my day.
Sadly our department isn’t called Salome et Loire though.
It's like an old-school horror film, where you think the vampire is finally dead and then up it pops again, out of its crypt, trying to suck out your blood
Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o
He said that last time as well.
You momentarily misremembered that he believes he won in 2020.
This is why the comments would be meaningless even if he wasn't a huge liar. It's not like if he loses he'll be saying, "OK, 2020 was rigged but this time you beat me fair and square".
I wonder how much of the support of the EU for freedom of movement of the under 30s might be affected by:
1) The relative strength of the UK and EU economies
2) The likelihood of political turmoil in EU countries caused by unemployment among the under 30s.
Not much at all. It's a cultural rather than economic thing, and you're being very generous in your estimate of political engagement in younger people.
Yet we're regularly told that its the younger people being drawn to political extremism in France and Germany.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o
He said that last time as well.
You momentarily misremembered that he believes he won in 2020.
This is why the comments would be meaningless even if he wasn't a huge liar. It's not like if he loses he'll be saying, "OK, 2020 was rigged but this time you beat me fair and square".
So Trump's entirely meaningless comment is leading the Japanese TV news.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws. https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o
He said that last time as well.
You momentarily misremembered that he believes he won in 2020.
This is why the comments would be meaningless even if he wasn't a huge liar. It's not like if he loses he'll be saying, "OK, 2020 was rigged but this time you beat me fair and square".
The mildly interesting part is he allowed himself to answer a question about losing. 99% of the time he would be boasting about how he would WIN bigly and Kamala is the REAL LOSER.
He is not as confident as he was earlier in the year.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
You've got that arse about face. The technology is already there - just that it's Chinese. European (and US) car manufacturers lost the plot thinking they could make the transition when it suited them, and as a result are going to be able to compete in the EV market. Which is set to take over, whatever government regulations might say.
Admittedly part of that is China subsidising massively the development of its industry - but again. that is something we should have done too. The big Chinese manufacturers don't need subsidies any more.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
I'm not sure the technology isn't ready - I can see a couple of options for my next car (Renault 5 / EV3 depending on my travelling requirements) - the bigger issue is that the car market as a whole, isn't ready for electric cars.
The problems I see regarding VW electric cars are equally true with their petrol version, the control panel is a mess...
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.
Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
OBR review possibly ?
Yes but she could have said this is too important to wait for that. Walked into a trap set by Osborne 15 years ago.
If there is any relaxation of the fiscal rules in relation to capital investment, doing so without a OBR review would be rate A1 lunacy.
What a lunatic life we led until 2010 then. If that's lunacy what is still having another 5 weeks (5 weeks!) of phoney war? Get them to do a 2 week eyeballing exercise.
If I knew how to short things I would be selling domestic shares and bonds ahead of her speech today.
Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o
He said that last time as well.
You momentarily misremembered that he believes he won in 2020.
This is why the comments would be meaningless even if he wasn't a huge liar. It's not like if he loses he'll be saying, "OK, 2020 was rigged but this time you beat me fair and square".
The mildly interesting part is he allowed himself to answer a question about losing. 99% of the time he would be boasting about how he would WIN bigly and Kamala is the REAL LOSER.
He is not as confident as he was earlier in the year.
Also why he won't debate again. Though he might yet be goaded into that.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
They're kissing their own markets goodbye in a few years time, too.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
This is why decline is inevitable. Any attempt to even slightly raise taxes elicits squeals from various interest groups. The govt waters their plans down and backs down. The public realm continues to deteriorate. Decline continues. One more big shock like covid or the GFC and the uk is in serious trouble.
Trump says he will not run for President again if he loses in November "US election: Donald Trump says he probably will not run in 2028 if he loses - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj9ekdvxx2o
He said that last time as well.
You momentarily misremembered that he believes he won in 2020.
This is why the comments would be meaningless even if he wasn't a huge liar. It's not like if he loses he'll be saying, "OK, 2020 was rigged but this time you beat me fair and square".
The mildly interesting part is he allowed himself to answer a question about losing. 99% of the time he would be boasting about how he would WIN bigly and Kamala is the REAL LOSER.
He is not as confident as he was earlier in the year.
Also why he won't debate again. Though he might yet be goaded into that.
I can't imagine he would take it well being followed around by a chicken.
Although risky for whoever is in the costume, given his SS detail might get a bit trigger happy.
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?
Murdoch has (and has) a very definite political agenda.
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
Of course, some of those criticising the egregious troughing of Starmer and his henchwomen will be doing so from a Corbynite rather than Tory perspective.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
You've got that arse about face. The technology is already there - just that it's Chinese. European (and US) car manufacturers lost the plot thinking they could make the transition when it suited them, and as a result are going to be able to compete in the EV market. Which is set to take over, whatever government regulations might say.
Admittedly part of that is China subsidising massively the development of its industry - but again. that is something we should have done too. The big Chinese manufacturers don't need subsidies any more.
Time horizons strike again. If you have a cash cow, it's really tempting to keep milking it, and never get round to slaughtering it to use the money to buy a different sort of cow instead.
I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.
It’s an interesting point that you and others make, that the benighted TRUSS could return to lead your party from oblivion, and into the light. Perhaps you are right and it’s her time: the era of TRUSS?
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
I'm not sure the technology isn't ready - I can see a couple of options for my next car (Renault 5 / EV3 depending on my travelling requirements)
The Alpine A290 looks great and I would like one, but I already have five cars I hardly drive at all and a daily (Mk.5 Golf 2.0 TDI 4Motion bought for 300 quid) that I drive about once a week.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
They're kissing their own markets goodbye in a few years time, too.
The U.S. Commerce Department is expected on Monday to propose prohibiting Chinese software and hardware in connected and autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads due to national security concerns, sources told Reuters.
This is why the future is in more authoratarian states like dubai and singapore. They can run a capitalist model whilst controlling immigration and actually make decisions in the national interest not on the whims of some strictly addicted single mother in redditch.
A point rarely mentioned - if ever - about Lord Alli, is that Matt Faulding, the fixer figure who sorted out scores of Labour selections - and to whom many of the new MPs owe their jobs - did so while on secondment from Lord Alli's office.
I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.
It’s an interesting point that you and others make, that the benighted TRUSS could return to lead your party from oblivion, and into the light. Perhaps you are right and it’s her time: the era of TRUSS?
Dare I say there's signs of unity and discipline in the conservative party? The media must be begging the contestants and others for statements on the Alligaters, but not a squeak. Now that is mainly for fear of some very justified whataboutery, but the silence is impressive. And effective.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
Labour used to have a theory of economics that meant countries didn't need to live within their means like ordinary people do. I could never get my head around their theory. In fact, if the cuts to WFA and all the other pain we've been promised are part of a plan to start living within our means, I'd welcome that.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
You've got that arse about face. The technology is already there - just that it's Chinese. European (and US) car manufacturers lost the plot thinking they could make the transition when it suited them, and as a result are going to be able to compete in the EV market. Which is set to take over, whatever government regulations might say.
Admittedly part of that is China subsidising massively the development of its industry - but again. that is something we should have done too. The big Chinese manufacturers don't need subsidies any more.
Time horizons strike again. If you have a cash cow, it's really tempting to keep milking it, and never get round to slaughtering it to use the money to buy a different sort of cow instead.
The Innovator's Dilemma was published over a quarter of a century back. A generation of western politicians failed to read it.
A point rarely mentioned - if ever - about Lord Alli, is that Matt Faulding, the fixer figure who sorted out scores of Labour selections - and to whom many of the new MPs owe their jobs - did so while on secondment from Lord Alli's office.
Should Labour be particul-alli worried? A party within the Party?
I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.
It’s an interesting point that you and others make, that the benighted TRUSS could return to lead your party from oblivion, and into the light. Perhaps you are right and it’s her time: the era of TRUSS?
Dare I say there's signs of unity and discipline in the conservative party? The media must be begging the contestants and others for statements on the Alligaters, but not a squeak. Now that is mainly for fear of some very justified whataboutery, but the silence is impressive. And effective.
When your political opponents are having their dirty laundry aired in public, it’s always best to stay quiet.
Most of the Tory MPs have very recent experience of being on the other side of that fence!
I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.
It’s an interesting point that you and others make, that the benighted TRUSS could return to lead your party from oblivion, and into the light. Perhaps you are right and it’s her time: the era of TRUSS?
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
Labour used to have a theory of economics that meant countries didn't need to live within their means like ordinary people do. I could never get my head around their theory. In fact, if the cuts to WFA and all the other pain we've been promised are part of a plan to start living within our means, I'd welcome that.
We are borrowing anything up to £100 billion this year - now, I'd prefer that to be much reduced though I accept there will always be some borrowing and where that borrowing is used to support capital infrastructure construction for example, I can see a strong argument for it.
However, and those who slate the Government over WFA (and there are reasons to slate them) don't come up with anything approaching a coherent response to how we get the borrowing done. Some would have us sack 50-90% of the "public sector" without defining it in any terms. Others talk about "public sector pensions" as though it's a single thing and they are all like the civil service or fire fighter's pensions (a clue, they aren't).
I do think land valur taxation is an idea whose time has come - if we accept, however, many people's principal, if not only, capital asset is their property, taxing it isn't going to be popular. Labour were foolish to shut down increasing basic tax rates or VAT.
I would raise basic rate tax to 25p and higher rate to 50p but unfreeze the thresholds and I'd even consider them undoing some of Hunt's "fiscal drag" (which none of the Tory side seem inclined to mention when talking about raising taxes).
There's clearly an argument for if not de-regulation than applying an enema to some of our constipated planning processes.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.
If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.
We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.
That's part of it.
Also, because most people aren't experienced in running a business or qualified in economics, they tend not to understand the complex measures and tradeoffs necessary to get an economy growing. That's how snake-oil salesmen can sell ridiculous notions and oxymorons like modern monetary theory, "Green Growth", socialism and other equally ridiculous fantasies.
And we have a partiuclarly poor and cynical political class who make Jim Hacker look like a knowledgeable, far-seeing, principled statesman.
A point rarely mentioned - if ever - about Lord Alli, is that Matt Faulding, the fixer figure who sorted out scores of Labour selections - and to whom many of the new MPs owe their jobs - did so while on secondment from Lord Alli's office.
This Alli chap does appear to have his fingers in many pies, especially for someone most of us didn’t know a fortnight ago.
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?
Murdoch has (and has) a very definite political agenda.
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
What is Murdoch's political agenda, apart from the Rupert Murdoch should be very rich?
This is why the future is in more authoratarian states like dubai and singapore. They can run a capitalist model whilst controlling immigration and actually make decisions in the national interest not on the whims of some strictly addicted single mother in redditch.
Benign authoritarians are, of course, a wonderful idea. The trouble is that nobody has found a way of ensuring that they are benign, remain benign, or hand over to someone else who is benign.
The risk is that you end up with an authoritarian who is addled with dreams of his country's former empire. And who, rather than just saddling the youth with high taxes and overpriced housing, sends them off, unprepared, to fight in stupid nasty wars of expansion.
A point rarely mentioned - if ever - about Lord Alli, is that Matt Faulding, the fixer figure who sorted out scores of Labour selections - and to whom many of the new MPs owe their jobs - did so while on secondment from Lord Alli's office.
Should Labour be particul-alli worried? A party within the Party?
A man with massive purchased power and influence within the governing party.
I've seen zero evidence that Alli is in any way corrupt, or corrupting. The fact that politicians accepted his (legal) gifts are not his problem; nor is the fact that inexplicably they may not have been declared properly, or in time.
But he certainly has (or probably now, had) a lot of scope for mischief. It looks terrible.
Jack Burkman says he’s Mark Robinson’s new campaign manager. I’m seeking confirmation.
A felon due to his past political work, Burkman plead guilty to a multistate fraud scheme using robocalls to spread “misinformation about mail-in voting leading up to the 2020 election” https://x.com/will_doran/status/1838040583035633982
Robinson is reportedly now down to three campaign staffers.
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?
Murdoch has (and has) a very definite political agenda.
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
What is Murdoch's political agenda, apart from the Rupert Murdoch should be very rich?
Social conservatism. Environmental dereliction. Enabling the mass transfer of wealth to the capital owning class. Basically, the full nap hand of right wing shitc--t views.
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?
Murdoch has (and has) a very definite political agenda.
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
What is Murdoch's political agenda, apart from the Rupert Murdoch should be very rich?
"Free market" (actually regulatory capture by big corporate, not free market) economics plus Australian republicanism plus other stuff.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
A point rarely mentioned - if ever - about Lord Alli, is that Matt Faulding, the fixer figure who sorted out scores of Labour selections - and to whom many of the new MPs owe their jobs - did so while on secondment from Lord Alli's office.
Should Labour be particul-alli worried? A party within the Party?
A man with massive purchased power and influence within the governing party.
I've seen zero evidence that Alli is in any way corrupt, or corrupting. The fact that politicians accepted his (legal) gifts are not his problem; nor is the fact that inexplicably they may not have been declared properly, or in time.
But he certainly has (or probably now, had) a lot of scope for mischief. It looks terrible.
It's a question of democracy - which is a large part of why the Conservatives got kicked out.
If you vote and you get a a government that ignores your vote and instead acts as a vehicle for special (and narrow) interests... what was the point?
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?
Murdoch has (and has) a very definite political agenda.
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
What is Murdoch's political agenda, apart from the Rupert Murdoch should be very rich?
Social conservatism. Environmental dereliction. Enabling the mass transfer of wealth to the capital owning class. Basically, the full nap hand of right wing shitc--t views.
He ensured a billion dollar wealth transfer to the plebs in the Fox/Dominion Voting Systems case.
This is why the future is in more authoratarian states like dubai and singapore. They can run a capitalist model whilst controlling immigration and actually make decisions in the national interest not on the whims of some strictly addicted single mother in redditch.
Benign authoritarians are, of course, a wonderful idea. The trouble is that nobody has found a way of ensuring that they are benign, remain benign, or hand over to someone else who is benign.
The risk is that you end up with an authoritarian who is addled with dreams of his country's former empire. And who, rather than just saddling the youth with high taxes and overpriced housing, sends them off, unprepared, to fight in stupid nasty wars of expansion.
Purely hypothetically, of course.
Dune.
The brilliantly educated, perfect leader. Trained to be a human computer and with the ability to see the future (literally). Overthrows the corrupt system oppressing a minority and leads them to victory.
Without spoilers - at one point he compares himself to Hitler, on the grounds that Hitler's kill count barely registered, against his own.
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws. https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
In the American context, that is dropping a 100kg of steak and a 100 gallons of blood into a pool full of hungry sharks.
Not sure this was the image labour wanted from their conference
Sky report
Anger over the Labour leadership’s handling of the winter fuel payments cut has reached the conference floor, with booing and jeering at the delay of a crunch vote on the policy.
Delegates at the Labour Party conference were expected to vote on Monday on a motion from trade unions opposing the cut, which sees 10 million pensioners lose the payments of up to £300.
But now the vote is not expected to be held until Wednesday, critically after both speeches from Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, and Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister.
There were boos from delegates on the conference floor as the day’s sessions began on Monday morning. Trade union figures said the disruption was about voicing anger at the attempt to push back the vote.
Wednesday, the final day of the conference in Liverpool, will see fewer delegates present. Sir Keir will have already departed to New York for the UN General Assembly.
The disruption forced one Labour conference figure leading the session from the stage to intervene, saying: “This conference is being watched around the country. So let’s stop this shouting and booing.”
Unite and CWU, two left-wing trade unions, tried to force a discussion about the timing of the vote. A union source told The Telegraph there was frustration at the vote delay. It remains to be seen exactly when the vote will be held.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.
If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.
We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.
That's part of it.
Also, because most people aren't experienced in running a business or qualified in economics, they tend not to understand the complex measures and tradeoffs necessary to get an economy growing. That's how snake-oil salesmen can sell ridiculous notions and oxymorons like modern monetary theory, "Green Growth", socialism and other equally ridiculous fantasies.
And we have a partiuclarly poor and cynical political class who make Jim Hacker look like a knowledgeable, far-seeing, principled statesman.
Don't forget to add "capitalism" and "rational markets" to your list of nonsenses. (None of which I would delete, by the way.)
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.
Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.
Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.
In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.
On the bright side, we can, as a country, at last test the proposition (in the 21st century)* that increasing CGT actually reduces tax take after the initial hit as people change behaviour.
* iirc Lawson equalised CGT with income tax but the world and capital is far more mobile in digital 21st century I reckon.
There might be some headroom on CGT, but setting rates anywhere close to income tax levels is a massive disincentive to invest in a business, rather than just work for a salary.
If you’re a fund manager, are you going to base your fund in the UK (45%), the US (40%), Singapore (0%-12%iirc) or Dubai (0%-7%)? So long as there’s regulatory stability, (in Dubai we have the DIFC finance free zone that works under English law, and there’s similar options in Singapore), these people can choose to base themselves and their funds anywhere.
Harris wants to raise CGT too (though not to as high a level as Biden is pushing for) as well as corporation tax
This is why the future is in more authoratarian states like dubai and singapore. They can run a capitalist model whilst controlling immigration and actually make decisions in the national interest not on the whims of some strictly addicted single mother in redditch.
Benign authoritarians are, of course, a wonderful idea. The trouble is that nobody has found a way of ensuring that they are benign, remain benign, or hand over to someone else who is benign.
The risk is that you end up with an authoritarian who is addled with dreams of his country's former empire. And who, rather than just saddling the youth with high taxes and overpriced housing, sends them off, unprepared, to fight in stupid nasty wars of expansion.
Purely hypothetically, of course.
Dune.
The brilliantly educated, perfect leader. Trained to be a human computer and with the ability to see the future (literally). Overthrows the corrupt system oppressing a minority and leads them to victory.
Without spoilers - at one point he compares himself to Hitler, on the grounds that Hitler's kill count barely registered, against his own.
Don't wish for spoilers for other people, but does that end up with the minority oppressing the majority?
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.
If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.
We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.
That's part of it.
Also, because most people aren't experienced in running a business or qualified in economics, they tend not to understand the complex measures and tradeoffs necessary to get an economy growing. That's how snake-oil salesmen can sell ridiculous notions and oxymorons like modern monetary theory, "Green Growth", socialism and other equally ridiculous fantasies.
And we have a partiuclarly poor and cynical political class who make Jim Hacker look like a knowledgeable, far-seeing, principled statesman.
Couple of problems imo are:
The governmental actions required to improve our long-term sustainable growth (rather than create froth) do not pay off in an election cycle timeframe.
Governments tend to get judged on absolute growth, which is dominated by factors outside their control, ie largely down to luck, when what they should be judged on how is how well we do relative to our peers. Eg:
Scenario 1: The world grows 8%. Our peers grow 4%. We grow 3%. Scenario 2: The world grows 2%. Our peers shrink 2%. We are flat.
The government has actually done better in S2 but will be judged to have done better in S1.
This is why the future is in more authoratarian states like dubai and singapore. They can run a capitalist model whilst controlling immigration and actually make decisions in the national interest not on the whims of some strictly addicted single mother in redditch.
Benign authoritarians are, of course, a wonderful idea. The trouble is that nobody has found a way of ensuring that they are benign, remain benign, or hand over to someone else who is benign.
The risk is that you end up with an authoritarian who is addled with dreams of his country's former empire. And who, rather than just saddling the youth with high taxes and overpriced housing, sends them off, unprepared, to fight in stupid nasty wars of expansion.
Purely hypothetically, of course.
If Singapore and Dubai are the answer, what’s the question? “Waiter, give me your blandest city”?
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.
Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
How does this outburst relate to what she said? We know the provisions of the mini budget, and Truss's statement is made in light of the fact that fiscally we now know they would have been fine, and dynamically they would have been a much-needed shot in the arm for the British economy. None of that is saying that the budget did or didn't spook the markets, which is a completely different issue.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.
If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.
We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.
That's part of it.
Also, because most people aren't experienced in running a business or qualified in economics, they tend not to understand the complex measures and tradeoffs necessary to get an economy growing. That's how snake-oil salesmen can sell ridiculous notions and oxymorons like modern monetary theory, "Green Growth", socialism and other equally ridiculous fantasies.
And we have a partiuclarly poor and cynical political class who make Jim Hacker look like a knowledgeable, far-seeing, principled statesman.
Couple of problems imo are:
The governmental actions required to improve our long-term sustainable growth (rather than create froth) do not pay off in an election cycle timeframe.
Governments tend to get judged on absolute growth, which is dominated by factors outside their control, ie largely down to luck, when what they should be judged on how is how well we do relative to our peers. Eg:
Scenario 1: The world grows 8%. Our peers grow 4%. We grow 3%. Scenario 2: The world grows 2%. Our peers shrink 2%. We are flat.
The government has actually done better in S2 but will be judged to have done better in S1.
Perhaps the current fractured state of political support might pave the way for a Lab/Con/maybe more coalition that will try to look further ahead. Well, one can dream.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws. https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
In the American context, that is dropping a 100kg of steak and a 100 gallons of blood into a pool full of hungry sharks.
Yep - the issue is that the gun lobby don't understand the difference between a 1800 musket (with a habit of exploding rather than firing) with modern assault weapons capable of firing multiple times a second without reloading.
Add in mental health problems and you can see why the US has issues nowhere else allows to occur..
I suspect it will be Jenrick but I think it would be closer than expected between him and Tugendhat or Cleverly amongst the Tory membership.
Amongst Tory MPs if Cleverly or Tugendhat goes out next as expected then their support largely transfers to the other so one of them may even beat Jenrick with MPs in the final MPs ballot. Badenoch I expect to come third
Transfers amongst Tory MPs are never quite as simple as that.
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
Murdoch became a billionaire through his media empire, which meant his papers had to make money and couldn't simply be a vehicle for his ideological proclivities. Arguably, Murdoch was always about money not ideology, or at least the two seemed to align pretty comfortably. Whereas, Marshall's wealth came from finance. His growing media empire is where he spends his money not where he earns it. Advancing his ideology is his only objective. That's his right, of course, but it means that we should always be aware who is paying for his "content" and what its objective is.
Isn't that the same as The Guardian or the Washington Post, then?
Murdoch has (and has) a very definite political agenda.
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
What is Murdoch's political agenda, apart from the Rupert Murdoch should be very rich?
Social conservatism. Environmental dereliction. Enabling the mass transfer of wealth to the capital owning class. Basically, the full nap hand of right wing shitc--t views.
No, it's more complex than that. It included being very anti-monarchy for a long time for example. Of course as Uncle Rupe is fairly old now a lot of his particular quirks will become less important.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/21/brian-fallon-harris-campaign-predictions-00180331 ...Number one, people should not read too much into what some have described as a shortage or a lack of interviews in the first six weeks of the campaign. But keep in mind all the things that she had to do as a candidate that was suddenly thrust to the top of the ticket: She had to merge a Wilmington operation that was built for a different candidate entirely and make it hers; she had to go through what would normally be a six-month process to vet and choose a running mate — she had to do that in basically three weeks; she had to plan a convention from scratch and plan a set of remarks for the convention that would be really her first high-profile opportunity to introduce herself to the public; she had to get ready for and succeed on the debate stage, which after the convention, was the next most important setting — 70 million eyeballs and we took prep for that seriously. And so she had a lot of work that she had to do in a very truncated schedule just to get the campaign off the ground.
Now we’re entering a phase of the campaign where the running mate is chosen. The convention has happened...
..If you want to get a sense of the types of engagements she’s likely to do in the remaining 50 or so days of the campaign, look at what she was doing in the first seven months of this calendar year prior to the ticket switch. Because Kirsten Allen, who has run her communications office on the official side, had her doing a heavy rotation of daytime talk shows, national print interviews with magazines, national sit-downs with television outlets like 60 Minutes late last year, cable hits — she did like 80 plus interviews in the first seven months of this year. And so that is a default setting for Kamala Harris in terms of media engagement. And I think what the remaining 50 days of this campaign will look like is something closer to that...
I suspect it will be Jenrick but I think it would be closer than expected between him and Tugendhat or Cleverly amongst the Tory membership.
Amongst Tory MPs if Cleverly or Tugendhat goes out next as expected then their support largely transfers to the other so one of them may even beat Jenrick with MPs in the final MPs ballot. Badenoch I expect to come third
Transfers amongst Tory MPs are never quite as simple as that.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.
If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.
We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.
That's part of it.
Also, because most people aren't experienced in running a business or qualified in economics, they tend not to understand the complex measures and tradeoffs necessary to get an economy growing. That's how snake-oil salesmen can sell ridiculous notions and oxymorons like modern monetary theory, "Green Growth", socialism and other equally ridiculous fantasies.
And we have a partiuclarly poor and cynical political class who make Jim Hacker look like a knowledgeable, far-seeing, principled statesman.
Don't forget to add "capitalism" and "rational markets" to your list of nonsenses. (None of which I would delete, by the way.)
The other side of the argument is wrong too though. Government finances are not like household finances. In a household you earn an income, and you budget to spend that income while saving for a time you won’t have an income. With few exceptions (student fees, buy to let houses) you don’t borrow to invest in growing your income.
But even within the constraints of the household people still borrow multiples of their income to buy housing. Certainly more than 100% of their annual salary.
Government is more like a business. If you can access capital to invest in productive capacity then you should do, because that’s how economies - thus income - grow. But it’s not completely like a business because it has social commitments that bring it closer to being a mutual or a cooperative.
I suspect it will be Jenrick but I think it would be closer than expected between him and Tugendhat or Cleverly amongst the Tory membership.
Amongst Tory MPs if Cleverly or Tugendhat goes out next as expected then their support largely transfers to the other so one of them may even beat Jenrick with MPs in the final MPs ballot. Badenoch I expect to come third
Transfers amongst Tory MPs are never quite as simple as that.
It's the members that worry me more
That's easier - the more right wing candidate wins....
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
Trade unions: 63% Immigrants: 59% Ethnic minorities: 54% The LGBT community: 45% Benefit claimants: 45% People in the South: 43% Businesses: 41% Rich people: 41% The working class: 41% Young people: 40% Women: 39% People with families: 39% The middle class: 36% People outside the South: 34% Homeowners: 28% People like you: 23% Older people: 23% People who don't vote for them: 20%
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
Labour used to have a theory of economics that meant countries didn't need to live within their means like ordinary people do. I could never get my head around their theory. In fact, if the cuts to WFA and all the other pain we've been promised are part of a plan to start living within our means, I'd welcome that.
Running a government and household are undoubtedly quite different but also have similarities.
Perhaps one way to look at it is when households are planning a family/growing they borrow significantly more than their incomes as a long term investment. They are not living within their current means but an expectation of future income, often including salary progression not to mention good health. If the salary progression works and they stay in good health the debt is fairly easily repaid by most.
It is the same with countries, it is perfectly reasonable for them to borrow beyond their current means to invest if they can deliver sustainable growth and stay out of trouble.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
It’s a good question. For many it’s also the rite of passage, and the social experience. But the question is how much people will pay for that.
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36% The same as the rest: 31% Only interested in themselves: 31% Has unworkable policies: 27% Should not be near power: 27% Interested in public service: 22% Fit to govern: 19% Nasty: 18% Unprofessional: 17% Seem like normal people: 16% Weak: 16% Has sensible policies: 15% Moderate: 14% Has a clear sense of purpose: 14% Divided: 14% Competent: 14% Boring: 11% Extremist: 10% Trustworthy: 8% Likeable: 7% Powerful: 7% Weird: 6% Distinct: 2%
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
Trade unions: 63% Immigrants: 59% Ethnic minorities: 54% The LGBT community: 45% Benefit claimants: 45% People in the South: 43% Businesses: 41% Rich people: 41% The working class: 41% Young people: 40% Women: 39% People with families: 39% The middle class: 36% People outside the South: 34% Homeowners: 28% People like you: 23% Older people: 23% People who don't vote for them: 20%
Middle aged and men seem strange omissions from that selection of categories.
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.
Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
How does this outburst relate to what she said? We know the provisions of the mini budget, and Truss's statement is made in light of the fact that fiscally we now know they would have been fine, and dynamically they would have been a much-needed shot in the arm for the British economy. None of that is saying that the budget did or didn't spook the markets, which is a completely different issue.
Do we know this? How exactly do we know this?
Because the connection between “I’m going to cut taxes” and “economic growth” is entirely dependent on the circumstances. Economic growth comes from actually improving services, skills & infrastructure in ways that enable more economic output. Cutting taxes does none of these things & Truss had no plan to achieve economic growth except the vaguest idea that “doing what Thatcher did a second time” was the equivalent of waving a magic wand over the economy.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
Currently my (main) course that I teach on sells the right to enter pre-reg training to be a pharmacist. Actual entry to the profession is via the pre-reg exam taken in the year after graduation.
I think it was such a traumatic event for her that the only way she can cope and process with it is to hunker and double-down and convince herself she was right all along.
It’s an interesting point that you and others make, that the benighted TRUSS could return to lead your party from oblivion, and into the light. Perhaps you are right and it’s her time: the era of TRUSS?
Knock it off!
I do hear what you are saying, Mark. It is perhaps counterintuitive, yet innovative – that TRUSS could be the answer you and others seek.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
Before Tesla, the standard belief was that
1) EVs will have rubbish range, be terrible cars and take forever to recharge
After the Roadster
2) EVs must be expensive and take forever to recharge
After Supercharging
3) Supercharging will kill your battery in 10 recharges
etc etc
What was interesting was that that *none* of the above was not available as researched engineering solutions. Controlling the temperature of the battery with water cooling, for example - published papers with stats on the effects on battery life.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/21/brian-fallon-harris-campaign-predictions-00180331 ...Number one, people should not read too much into what some have described as a shortage or a lack of interviews in the first six weeks of the campaign. But keep in mind all the things that she had to do as a candidate that was suddenly thrust to the top of the ticket: She had to merge a Wilmington operation that was built for a different candidate entirely and make it hers; she had to go through what would normally be a six-month process to vet and choose a running mate — she had to do that in basically three weeks; she had to plan a convention from scratch and plan a set of remarks for the convention that would be really her first high-profile opportunity to introduce herself to the public; she had to get ready for and succeed on the debate stage, which after the convention, was the next most important setting — 70 million eyeballs and we took prep for that seriously. And so she had a lot of work that she had to do in a very truncated schedule just to get the campaign off the ground.
Now we’re entering a phase of the campaign where the running mate is chosen. The convention has happened...
..If you want to get a sense of the types of engagements she’s likely to do in the remaining 50 or so days of the campaign, look at what she was doing in the first seven months of this calendar year prior to the ticket switch. Because Kirsten Allen, who has run her communications office on the official side, had her doing a heavy rotation of daytime talk shows, national print interviews with magazines, national sit-downs with television outlets like 60 Minutes late last year, cable hits — she did like 80 plus interviews in the first seven months of this year. And so that is a default setting for Kamala Harris in terms of media engagement. And I think what the remaining 50 days of this campaign will look like is something closer to that...
She managed all that in 3 weeks. Rosa Klebb. One half arsed budget. Four months.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
I've suggested that a way to monetise PB, would be to create a private version, where an invited, paid panels of contributors tears policies to pieces.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
A late middle age version, perhaps ?
So in life you need three Universities. The early years 18-22, PB for middle-aged (men, mainly) and then the U3A for later life retirees.
Trade unions: 63% Immigrants: 59% Ethnic minorities: 54% The LGBT community: 45% Benefit claimants: 45% People in the South: 43% Businesses: 41% Rich people: 41% The working class: 41% Young people: 40% Women: 39% People with families: 39% The middle class: 36% People outside the South: 34% Homeowners: 28% People like you: 23% Older people: 23% People who don't vote for them: 20%
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36% The same as the rest: 31% Only interested in themselves: 31% Has unworkable policies: 27% Should not be near power: 27% Interested in public service: 22% Fit to govern: 19% Nasty: 18% Unprofessional: 17% Seem like normal people: 16% Weak: 16% Has sensible policies: 15% Moderate: 14% Has a clear sense of purpose: 14% Divided: 14% Competent: 14% Boring: 11% Extremist: 10% Trustworthy: 8% Likeable: 7% Powerful: 7% Weird: 6% Distinct: 2%
So much for claims here of the freebies stories "not cutting through"
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
Labour used to have a theory of economics that meant countries didn't need to live within their means like ordinary people do. I could never get my head around their theory. In fact, if the cuts to WFA and all the other pain we've been promised are part of a plan to start living within our means, I'd welcome that.
Running a government and household are undoubtedly quite different but also have similarities.
Perhaps one way to look at it is when households are planning a family/growing they borrow significantly more than their incomes as a long term investment. They are not living within their current means but an expectation of future income, often including salary progression not to mention good health. If the salary progression works and they stay in good health the debt is fairly easily repaid by most.
It is the same with countries, it is perfectly reasonable for them to borrow beyond their current means to invest if they can deliver sustainable growth and stay out of trouble.
An integrated economy of productive assets, connected by a common currency is limited only by the actual real-world limits on the productive capacity of it’s people & infrastructure working on concert. At the level of a country, the £ is a collective fiction we all agree to use in order to make the economy run. At the level of the individual household, the £ is an iron rule that will bankrupt you if you fail to meet your obligations.
These two things are not the same, no matter how tempting it is to see them that way.
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws. https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
In the American context, that is dropping a 100kg of steak and a 100 gallons of blood into a pool full of hungry sharks.
It's hard to see how her logic works. If you accept that the government has the right to restrict some types of arms then you're accepting that it can restrict all of them which is clearly against the second amendment. Of course any sensible country would have junked that amendment long ago.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
Comments
If you think back around ten years, the arguments were all about 'why should we bother on climate change if China doesn't do anything ?'
The opposite argument, which lost out, is because it was good investment.
Turns out China was quietly getting on with it. Biden's investments in domestic manufacturing are the right response, but half a decade later than might have been the case.
1) Live within its means
2) Increase its savings rate
3) Improve its productivity
4) Create more wealth
Perhaps the main requirement for doing any of those is actually wanting to do so (as opposed to saying you want to).
That is why he is reviled by those who are the targets of it.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws.
https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
He is not as confident as he was earlier in the year.
The technology is already there - just that it's Chinese. European (and US) car manufacturers lost the plot thinking they could make the transition when it suited them, and as a result are going to be able to compete in the EV market. Which is set to take over, whatever government regulations might say.
Admittedly part of that is China subsidising massively the development of its industry - but again. that is something we should have done too.
The big Chinese manufacturers don't need subsidies any more.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
The problems I see regarding VW electric cars are equally true with their petrol version, the control panel is a mess...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYyzQBe3DA8
If I knew how to short things I would be selling domestic shares and bonds ahead of her speech today.
Though he might yet be goaded into that.
Although risky for whoever is in the costume, given his SS detail might get a bit trigger happy.
Which, TBH, had better be quicker than the Inquiry.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/21/us-to-propose-barring-chinese-software-hardware-in-connected-vehicles-sources-say.html
The U.S. Commerce Department is expected on Monday to propose prohibiting Chinese software and hardware in connected and autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads due to national security concerns, sources told Reuters.
Negative: 57%
Positive: 4%
NBC / Sept 17, 2024 / n=1000
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1837893964818456605
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1838132437273981414
A point rarely mentioned - if ever - about Lord Alli, is that Matt Faulding, the fixer figure who sorted out scores of Labour selections - and to whom many of the new MPs owe their jobs - did so while on secondment from Lord Alli's office.
A generation of western politicians failed to read it.
Most of the Tory MPs have very recent experience of being on the other side of that fence!
However, and those who slate the Government over WFA (and there are reasons to slate them) don't come up with anything approaching a coherent response to how we get the borrowing done. Some would have us sack 50-90% of the "public sector" without defining it in any terms. Others talk about "public sector pensions" as though it's a single thing and they are all like the civil service or fire fighter's pensions (a clue, they aren't).
I do think land valur taxation is an idea whose time has come - if we accept, however, many people's principal, if not only, capital asset is their property, taxing it isn't going to be popular. Labour were foolish to shut down increasing basic tax rates or VAT.
I would raise basic rate tax to 25p and higher rate to 50p but unfreeze the thresholds and I'd even consider them undoing some of Hunt's "fiscal drag" (which none of the Tory side seem inclined to mention when talking about raising taxes).
There's clearly an argument for if not de-regulation than applying an enema to some of our constipated planning processes.
Also, because most people aren't experienced in running a business or qualified in economics, they tend not to understand the complex measures and tradeoffs necessary to get an economy growing. That's how snake-oil salesmen can sell ridiculous notions and oxymorons like modern monetary theory, "Green Growth", socialism and other equally ridiculous fantasies.
And we have a partiuclarly poor and cynical political class who make Jim Hacker look like a knowledgeable, far-seeing, principled statesman.
The risk is that you end up with an authoritarian who is addled with dreams of his country's former empire. And who, rather than just saddling the youth with high taxes and overpriced housing, sends them off, unprepared, to fight in stupid nasty wars of expansion.
Purely hypothetically, of course.
I've seen zero evidence that Alli is in any way corrupt, or corrupting. The fact that politicians accepted his (legal) gifts are not his problem; nor is the fact that inexplicably they may not have been declared properly, or in time.
But he certainly has (or probably now, had) a lot of scope for mischief. It looks terrible.
A felon due to his past political work, Burkman plead guilty to a multistate fraud scheme using robocalls to spread “misinformation about mail-in voting leading up to the 2020 election”
https://x.com/will_doran/status/1838040583035633982
Robinson is reportedly now down to three campaign staffers.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
If you vote and you get a a government that ignores your vote and instead acts as a vehicle for special (and narrow) interests... what was the point?
The brilliantly educated, perfect leader. Trained to be a human computer and with the ability to see the future (literally). Overthrows the corrupt system oppressing a minority and leads them to victory.
Without spoilers - at one point he compares himself to Hitler, on the grounds that Hitler's kill count barely registered, against his own.
Sky report
Anger over the Labour leadership’s handling of the winter fuel payments cut has reached the conference floor, with booing and jeering at the delay of a crunch vote on the policy.
Delegates at the Labour Party conference were expected to vote on Monday on a motion from trade unions opposing the cut, which sees 10 million pensioners lose the payments of up to £300.
But now the vote is not expected to be held until Wednesday, critically after both speeches from Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, and Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister.
There were boos from delegates on the conference floor as the day’s sessions began on Monday morning. Trade union figures said the disruption was about voicing anger at the attempt to push back the vote.
Wednesday, the final day of the conference in Liverpool, will see fewer delegates present. Sir Keir will have already departed to New York for the UN General Assembly.
The disruption forced one Labour conference figure leading the session from the stage to intervene, saying: “This conference is being watched around the country. So let’s stop this shouting and booing.”
Unite and CWU, two left-wing trade unions, tried to force a discussion about the timing of the vote. A union source told The Telegraph there was frustration at the vote delay. It remains to be seen exactly when the vote will be held.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/kamala-harris-capital-gains-tax/index.html
The governmental actions required to improve our long-term sustainable growth (rather than create froth) do not pay off in an election cycle timeframe.
Governments tend to get judged on absolute growth, which is dominated by factors outside their control, ie largely down to luck, when what they should be judged on how is how well we do relative to our peers. Eg:
Scenario 1: The world grows 8%. Our peers grow 4%. We grow 3%.
Scenario 2: The world grows 2%. Our peers shrink 2%. We are flat.
The government has actually done better in S2 but will be judged to have done better in S1.
Did anyone watch From Russia With LEV yet ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gt0JFDotsc
Harris is changing the way Democrats target Latino voters. It’s a risk.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/22/harris-latino-voters-00180365
(It would be a far bigger risk not to, IMO.)
Add in mental health problems and you can see why the US has issues nowhere else allows to occur..
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/21/brian-fallon-harris-campaign-predictions-00180331
...Number one, people should not read too much into what some have described as a shortage or a lack of interviews in the first six weeks of the campaign.
But keep in mind all the things that she had to do as a candidate that was suddenly thrust to the top of the ticket: She had to merge a Wilmington operation that was built for a different candidate entirely and make it hers; she had to go through what would normally be a six-month process to vet and choose a running mate — she had to do that in basically three weeks; she had to plan a convention from scratch and plan a set of remarks for the convention that would be really her first high-profile opportunity to introduce herself to the public; she had to get ready for and succeed on the debate stage, which after the convention, was the next most important setting — 70 million eyeballs and we took prep for that seriously. And so she had a lot of work that she had to do in a very truncated schedule just to get the campaign off the ground.
Now we’re entering a phase of the campaign where the running mate is chosen. The convention has happened...
..If you want to get a sense of the types of engagements she’s likely to do in the remaining 50 or so days of the campaign, look at what she was doing in the first seven months of this calendar year prior to the ticket switch. Because Kirsten Allen, who has run her communications office on the official side, had her doing a heavy rotation of daytime talk shows, national print interviews with magazines, national sit-downs with television outlets like 60 Minutes late last year, cable hits — she did like 80 plus interviews in the first seven months of this year. And so that is a default setting for Kamala Harris in terms of media engagement. And I think what the remaining 50 days of this campaign will look like is something closer to that...
But even within the constraints of the household people still borrow multiples of their income to buy housing. Certainly more than 100% of their annual salary.
Government is more like a business. If you can access capital to invest in productive capacity then you should do, because that’s how economies - thus income - grow. But it’s not completely like a business because it has social commitments that bring it closer to being a mutual or a cooperative.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
Who do Britons think the Labour Party care about?
Trade unions: 63%
Immigrants: 59%
Ethnic minorities: 54%
The LGBT community: 45%
Benefit claimants: 45%
People in the South: 43%
Businesses: 41%
Rich people: 41%
The working class: 41%
Young people: 40%
Women: 39%
People with families: 39%
The middle class: 36%
People outside the South: 34%
Homeowners: 28%
People like you: 23%
Older people: 23%
People who don't vote for them: 20%
Perhaps one way to look at it is when households are planning a family/growing they borrow significantly more than their incomes as a long term investment. They are not living within their current means but an expectation of future income, often including salary progression not to mention good health. If the salary progression works and they stay in good health the debt is fairly easily repaid by most.
It is the same with countries, it is perfectly reasonable for them to borrow beyond their current means to invest if they can deliver sustainable growth and stay out of trouble.
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36%
The same as the rest: 31%
Only interested in themselves: 31%
Has unworkable policies: 27%
Should not be near power: 27%
Interested in public service: 22%
Fit to govern: 19%
Nasty: 18%
Unprofessional: 17%
Seem like normal people: 16%
Weak: 16%
Has sensible policies: 15%
Moderate: 14%
Has a clear sense of purpose: 14%
Divided: 14%
Competent: 14%
Boring: 11%
Extremist: 10%
Trustworthy: 8%
Likeable: 7%
Powerful: 7%
Weird: 6%
Distinct: 2%
They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
Because the connection between “I’m going to cut taxes” and “economic growth” is entirely dependent on the circumstances. Economic growth comes from actually improving services, skills & infrastructure in ways that enable more economic output. Cutting taxes does none of these things & Truss had no plan to achieve economic growth except the vaguest idea that “doing what Thatcher did a second time” was the equivalent of waving a magic wand over the economy.
16-24: AfD 31%, SPD 19%
25-34: AfD 33%, SPD 20%
35-44: AfD 34%, SPD 24%
45-50: AfD 32%, SPD 29%
60-69: SPD 35%, AfD 28%
70+: SPD 49%, AfD 17%
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-brandenburg-2024-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-19755ff0-6966-46f3-979c-2ee2f57eb078
Interesting.
Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
1) EVs will have rubbish range, be terrible cars and take forever to recharge
After the Roadster
2) EVs must be expensive and take forever to recharge
After Supercharging
3) Supercharging will kill your battery in 10 recharges
etc etc
What was interesting was that that *none* of the above was not available as researched engineering solutions. Controlling the temperature of the battery with water cooling, for example - published papers with stats on the effects on battery life.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Competent - 14%
Trustworthy - 8%
These two things are not the same, no matter how tempting it is to see them that way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjuj1xB_Ze8
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.