Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
Labour used to have a theory of economics that meant countries didn't need to live within their means like ordinary people do. I could never get my head around their theory. In fact, if the cuts to WFA and all the other pain we've been promised are part of a plan to start living within our means, I'd welcome that.
Running a government and household are undoubtedly quite different but also have similarities.
Perhaps one way to look at it is when households are planning a family/growing they borrow significantly more than their incomes as a long term investment. They are not living within their current means but an expectation of future income, often including salary progression not to mention good health. If the salary progression works and they stay in good health the debt is fairly easily repaid by most.
It is the same with countries, it is perfectly reasonable for them to borrow beyond their current means to invest if they can deliver sustainable growth and stay out of trouble.
An integrated economy of productive assets, connected by a common currency is limited only by the actual real-world limits on the productive capacity of it’s people & infrastructure working on concert. At the level of a country, the £ is a collective fiction we all agree to use in order to make the economy run. At the level of the individual household, the £ is an iron rule that will bankrupt you if you fail to meet your obligations.
These two things are not the same, no matter how tempting it is to see them that way.
Well exactly. Otherwise I would be selling a series of big figure zero coupon cheques redeemable in 2071
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
But are the tips bad enough to leave us £50k in debt after three years?
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
It's the Janet Slimfast problem, as James Sean Dickson puts it. Or, more charitably, it's about time horizons.
If you have many more years on this mortal coil, growth is good, it pays for nice things. If you don't, the calculation of "inconvenience and expense and ugliness now vs. benefits over decades" works differently. The "there's enough to see me out" drug is damn potent.
We've not had economic growth for ages because, when push comes to shove, not enough people have really wanted it.
That's part of it.
Also, because most people aren't experienced in running a business or qualified in economics, they tend not to understand the complex measures and tradeoffs necessary to get an economy growing. That's how snake-oil salesmen can sell ridiculous notions and oxymorons like modern monetary theory, "Green Growth", socialism and other equally ridiculous fantasies.
And we have a partiuclarly poor and cynical political class who make Jim Hacker look like a knowledgeable, far-seeing, principled statesman.
Couple of problems imo are:
The governmental actions required to improve our long-term sustainable growth (rather than create froth) do not pay off in an election cycle timeframe.
Governments tend to get judged on absolute growth, which is dominated by factors outside their control, ie largely down to luck, when what they should be judged on how is how well we do relative to our peers. Eg:
Scenario 1: The world grows 8%. Our peers grow 4%. We grow 3%. Scenario 2: The world grows 2%. Our peers shrink 2%. We are flat.
The government has actually done better in S2 but will be judged to have done better in S1.
Perhaps the current fractured state of political support might pave the way for a Lab/Con/maybe more coalition that will try to look further ahead. Well, one can dream.
Lab/Con is a stretch but the next parliament could be interesting if this government proves unpopular.
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36% The same as the rest: 31% Only interested in themselves: 31% Has unworkable policies: 27% Should not be near power: 27% Interested in public service: 22% Fit to govern: 19% Nasty: 18% Unprofessional: 17% Seem like normal people: 16% Weak: 16% Has sensible policies: 15% Moderate: 14% Has a clear sense of purpose: 14% Divided: 14% Competent: 14% Boring: 11% Extremist: 10% Trustworthy: 8% Likeable: 7% Powerful: 7% Weird: 6% Distinct: 2%
So much for claims here of the freebies stories "not cutting through"
Competent - 14% Trustworthy - 8%
These are utterly horrific numbers. These werent the first hundred days we asked for, but the first hundred we got!
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
Worries about range (and longevity) are why people aren't rushing to buy second hand cars. Add on the fact that range is improvingmeans that the starting point of depreciation wasn't the £40,000 you paid but the £30,000 a better car costs this year...
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36% The same as the rest: 31% Only interested in themselves: 31% Has unworkable policies: 27% Should not be near power: 27% Interested in public service: 22% Fit to govern: 19% Nasty: 18% Unprofessional: 17% Seem like normal people: 16% Weak: 16% Has sensible policies: 15% Moderate: 14% Has a clear sense of purpose: 14% Divided: 14% Competent: 14% Boring: 11% Extremist: 10% Trustworthy: 8% Likeable: 7% Powerful: 7% Weird: 6% Distinct: 2%
So much for claims here of the freebies stories "not cutting through"
Competent - 14% Trustworthy - 8%
These are utterly horrific numbers. These werent the first hundred days we asked for, but the first hundred we got!
The best thing Rishi did for the Tory party was call an unexpected election in July. Which meant that a lot of the first 100 days was spent with Parliament being in recess so few things got done.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
A late middle age version, perhaps ?
So in life you need three Universities. The early years 18-22, PB for middle-aged (men, mainly) and then the U3A for later life retirees.
The U3a (and I'm an enthusiastic member) is like PB in that it has it's shore of irrelevant commentators.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
What they’re primarily selling is scarcity and reputation, at a time when information is freely available.
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36% The same as the rest: 31% Only interested in themselves: 31% Has unworkable policies: 27% Should not be near power: 27% Interested in public service: 22% Fit to govern: 19% Nasty: 18% Unprofessional: 17% Seem like normal people: 16% Weak: 16% Has sensible policies: 15% Moderate: 14% Has a clear sense of purpose: 14% Divided: 14% Competent: 14% Boring: 11% Extremist: 10% Trustworthy: 8% Likeable: 7% Powerful: 7% Weird: 6% Distinct: 2%
So much for claims here of the freebies stories "not cutting through"
Competent - 14% Trustworthy - 8%
These are utterly horrific numbers. These werent the first hundred days we asked for, but the first hundred we got!
Moving of WFA vote to wednesday got booed
Your reminder that at labour conference 1997 Blair issued a "no triumphalism" order. Not much danger of that today.
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws. https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
In the American context, that is dropping a 100kg of steak and a 100 gallons of blood into a pool full of hungry sharks.
It's hard to see how her logic works. If you accept that the government has the right to restrict some types of arms then you're accepting that it can restrict all of them which is clearly against the second amendment. Of course any sensible country would have junked that amendment long ago.
The second amendment, well that’s how the people hold the government to the first amendment. - Dave Chappelle.
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36% The same as the rest: 31% Only interested in themselves: 31% Has unworkable policies: 27% Should not be near power: 27% Interested in public service: 22% Fit to govern: 19% Nasty: 18% Unprofessional: 17% Seem like normal people: 16% Weak: 16% Has sensible policies: 15% Moderate: 14% Has a clear sense of purpose: 14% Divided: 14% Competent: 14% Boring: 11% Extremist: 10% Trustworthy: 8% Likeable: 7% Powerful: 7% Weird: 6% Distinct: 2%
So much for claims here of the freebies stories "not cutting through"
Competent - 14% Trustworthy - 8%
At home with the extended family this week, political giftgiving came up several times, seriously and as jokes.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
Before Tesla, the standard belief was that
1) EVs will have rubbish range, be terrible cars and take forever to recharge
After the Roadster
2) EVs must be expensive and take forever to recharge
After Supercharging
3) Supercharging will kill your battery in 10 recharges
etc etc
What was interesting was that that *none* of the above was not available as researched engineering solutions. Controlling the temperature of the battery with water cooling, for example - published papers with stats on the effects on battery life.
People will hate it, because his twitter profile/ownership and excessive trolling, but Tesla broke the mould it got battery manufacturing scale that made vehicles feasible. Of course the Chinese now have the edge. Elon is both a visionary genius and an arse. It's no fluke he is doing to space travel exactly what he has done for EVs. He is one of the most impactful people for the advancement of humanity this century.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
One of the things it's not simple to replicate is being surrounded by a peer group of your own age who are all interested in the same intellectual discipline. Few workplaces can replicate that. The internet arguably does, in a somewhat restricted manner.
So you are saying the PB is basically Uni course? Not a bad anaolgy!
A late middle age version, perhaps ?
So in life you need three Universities. The early years 18-22, PB for middle-aged (men, mainly) and then the U3A for later life retirees.
The U3a (and I'm an enthusiastic member) is like PB in that it has it's shore of irrelevant commentators.
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws. https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
In the American context, that is dropping a 100kg of steak and a 100 gallons of blood into a pool full of hungry sharks.
It's hard to see how her logic works. If you accept that the government has the right to restrict some types of arms then you're accepting that it can restrict all of them which is clearly against the second amendment. Of course any sensible country would have junked that amendment long ago.
That's pretty well how all constitutional law works, though. Few constitutional rights can be upheld in such an absolutist manner without infringing competing rights. That's been understood for centuries.
So no, it's not at all hard to see how the logic works. The law, even with the current nuts on the Supreme Court, accepts some restriction on what arms can be owned.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
I think the number of times a year when it would be useful to me to be able to drive 250 miles without stopping can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
Before Tesla, the standard belief was that
1) EVs will have rubbish range, be terrible cars and take forever to recharge
After the Roadster
2) EVs must be expensive and take forever to recharge
After Supercharging
3) Supercharging will kill your battery in 10 recharges
etc etc
What was interesting was that that *none* of the above was not available as researched engineering solutions. Controlling the temperature of the battery with water cooling, for example - published papers with stats on the effects on battery life.
People will hate it, because his twitter profile/ownership and excessive trolling, but Tesla broke the mould it got battery manufacturing scale that made vehicles feasible. Of course the Chinese now have the edge. Elon is both a visionary genius and an arse. It's no fluke he is doing to space travel exactly what he has done for EVs. He is one of the most impactful people for the advancement of humanity this century.
He is one of the most impactful people for the destruction of humanity this century as well. Time may tell which outweighs the other.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...
Literally my objections when it comes to planning are
1) does it directly impact someone?
if No it can be built.
What about indirect impacts?
Supermarkets have killed a lot of town centres. If we had required out of town development to charge for parking maybe we wouldn’t have so many boarded up bistros?
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
Worries about range (and longevity) are why people aren't rushing to buy second hand cars. Add on the fact that range is improvingmeans that the starting point of depreciation wasn't the £40,000 you paid but the £30,000 a better car costs this year...
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
Second hand prices are starting to reflect that reality though. Look at how quickly Teslas now depreciate, compared to what was the case only a couple of years back.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
Do most people need 300 miles, most of the time? Most do no more than 25 -30 miles commutes. Its the weekend away that can be more challenging.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
I think the number of times a year when it would be useful to me to be able to drive 250 miles without stopping can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
The issue is that in winter to drive 200 miles you need a car to with a supposed range of 300+ to cope with heating the car and other cold weather impacts...
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
Do most people need 300 miles, most of the time? Most do no more than 25 -30 miles commutes. Its the weekend away that can be more challenging.
The issue is when those five days you want the extra range, are the same five days for everyone.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...
Literally my objections when it comes to planning are
1) does it directly impact someone?
if No it can be built.
What about indirect impacts?
Supermarkets have killed a lot of town centres. If we had required out of town development to charge for parking maybe we wouldn’t have so many boarded up bistros?
The freeport growth is going to bite us..,
I would suggest you head to Durham where Silver street (which has been dying for the past 15 years) is now full of restaurants and cafes.
The world moves on, add a bit of spare cash and town centres can thrive...
It is a false choice to suggest you are either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone’s guns away.
I am in favor of the Second Amendment — and I am in favor of an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, and red flag laws. https://x.com/VP/status/1837953835937288403
In the American context, that is dropping a 100kg of steak and a 100 gallons of blood into a pool full of hungry sharks.
It's hard to see how her logic works. If you accept that the government has the right to restrict some types of arms then you're accepting that it can restrict all of them which is clearly against the second amendment. Of course any sensible country would have junked that amendment long ago.
There was an Assault weapon ban that survived a decade of legal challenges from 1994-2004.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
Do most people need 300 miles, most of the time? Most do no more than 25 -30 miles commutes. Its the weekend away that can be more challenging.
"Most of the time" is not good enough. Visit a M5 or M6 service station the weekend before Christmas and observe the Teslanians. A four hour wait for a 90 minute partial charge is enough to spoil your whole year.
I suspect it will be Jenrick but I think it would be closer than expected between him and Tugendhat or Cleverly amongst the Tory membership.
Amongst Tory MPs if Cleverly or Tugendhat goes out next as expected then their support largely transfers to the other so one of them may even beat Jenrick with MPs in the final MPs ballot. Badenoch I expect to come third
Transfers amongst Tory MPs are never quite as simple as that.
It's the members that worry me more
That's easier - the more right wing candidate wins....
Which could be the way to go because Nigel Farage has come out and said that he does not want racist bigots. It didn't make banner headlines but to me this was a bit of a bombshell. What he's effectively announcing there is a massive pivot to the centre for RUK and he's prepared to sacrifice about half of their existing base (so what around 2m voters?) to achieve it. Those people have to go somewhere and it probably won't be to Lab, Green or the LDs.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
Worries about range (and longevity) are why people aren't rushing to buy second hand cars. Add on the fact that range is improvingmeans that the starting point of depreciation wasn't the £40,000 you paid but the £30,000 a better car costs this year...
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
I'm currently driving an elderly diesel car and have long though that my next car will be electric: anybody got a recommendation for an EV that would be fine if bought second hand? I don't need a great range.
I suspect it will be Jenrick but I think it would be closer than expected between him and Tugendhat or Cleverly amongst the Tory membership.
Amongst Tory MPs if Cleverly or Tugendhat goes out next as expected then their support largely transfers to the other so one of them may even beat Jenrick with MPs in the final MPs ballot. Badenoch I expect to come third
Transfers amongst Tory MPs are never quite as simple as that.
It's the members that worry me more
That's easier - the more right wing candidate wins....
Which could be the way to go because Nigel Farage has come out and said that he does not want racist bigots. It didn't make banner headlines but to me this was a bit of a bombshell. What he's effectively announcing there is a massive pivot to the centre for RUK and he's prepared to sacrifice about half of their existing base (so what around 2m voters?) to achieve it. Those people have to go somewhere and it probably won't be to Lab, Green or the LDs.
For a lot of reform voters Farage is milquetoast. They want not just immigration ended but repatriation of illegals and perhaps others too. Tommy Robinson has furiously attacked Tice and Farage
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
Do most people need 300 miles, most of the time? Most do no more than 25 -30 miles commutes. Its the weekend away that can be more challenging.
"Most of the time" is not good enough. Visit a M5 or M6 service station the weekend before Christmas and observe the Teslanians. A four hour wait for a 90 minute partial charge is enough to spoil your whole year.
Perhaps those in the 4h queue might look to leave the motorway by a few miles to find a charger, as many do to avoid paying ludicrous petrol prices on the motorway?
The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.
A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter, which is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.
One phenomenon going on quietly in the background, which should encourage the BoE to get off its arse on interest rates: the pound is the strongest it’s been in a while.
GBP:EUR 1.20, last seen in early 2022 before Truss etc, and before that briefly in Feb 2020.
GBP:USD 1.33, also the highest since Feb 2022.
Not quite the rates I grew up with (I remember the halcyon days of 2 dollars to the pound in the noughties) but the financial crisis put paid to any hope of those ever coming back.
A country which wants a higher exchange rate needs to:
1) Live within its means 2) Increase its savings rate 3) Improve its productivity 4) Create more wealth
Perhaps the main requirement for doing any of those is actually wanting to do so (as opposed to saying you want to).
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
You need a solid 300 miles to cover most people most of the time. Being driving EV for three years, with a notional range of 250. But that rapidly diminishes in different circumstances. Rain, cold and speed *dramatically* reduce that range, with 250+ only really obtainable on nice sunny dry days at 45mph.
Do most people need 300 miles, most of the time? Most do no more than 25 -30 miles commutes. Its the weekend away that can be more challenging.
"Most of the time" is not good enough. Visit a M5 or M6 service station the weekend before Christmas and observe the Teslanians. A four hour wait for a 90 minute partial charge is enough to spoil your whole year.
My worst case scenario is needing to drive 240 miles in a hurry to my parents. So I need a car that can do that without wasting 30 minutes at a services because there will be a traffic jam or 2 regardless of when I set off..
That means I need a car with a range of say 340 miles - which the new EV3 does. So when I said earlier I was looking at the Renault 5 I can really rule it out.
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
What they’re primarily selling is scarcity and reputation, at a time when information is freely available.
What they are really dealing with is how to think ie what to do with all those masses of information.
Gathering information and training in the accepted way of processing it is best left to technical colleges.
The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.
A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter, which is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.
One phenomenon going on quietly in the background, which should encourage the BoE to get off its arse on interest rates: the pound is the strongest it’s been in a while.
GBP:EUR 1.20, last seen in early 2022 before Truss etc, and before that briefly in Feb 2020.
GBP:USD 1.33, also the highest since Feb 2022.
Not quite the rates I grew up with (I remember the halcyon days of 2 dollars to the pound in the noughties) but the financial crisis put paid to any hope of those ever coming back.
A country which wants a higher exchange rate needs to:
1) Live within its means 2) Increase its savings rate 3) Improve its productivity 4) Create more wealth
Perhaps the main requirement for doing any of those is actually wanting to do so (as opposed to saying you want to).
we as a country very clearly dont want to do so.
Bingo - most people have absolutely no idea we are not a rich country anymore. Would be completely shocked to hear the USA is pushing 50% higher GDP per capita.
The utter determination not to accept any responsibility for her actions is bordering on delusional.
Yes, the BoE screwed up, they nearly always do. Just this last week they made another mistake in not cutting interest rates when the labour market is going soft and growth is stuttering. But to pretend that her policies and actions did not play a part in the chaos, jeez.
The labour market is going soft because everyone and everything is in limbo waiting for the budget.
Yep, and she has been clear that this will be contractionary budget with higher taxes. It doesn’t exactly encourage investment. The uncertainty is probably more damaging than the reality. Why are we waiting?
There’s a lot of HNWs who have heard enough and aren’t waiting for the actual budget.
Mostly people no-one has heard of, quietly running their hedge fund in Mayfair but contributing tens of millions in taxes, hearing talk of punitive 45% CGT rates and not wanting to hang around to find out.
In totally unrelated news, Singapore looked very attractive on TV yesterday for the F1 race.
Really - it looked very warm and sweltering... Mind you I think all the sane options have similar climate given that Europe would be a no go for most people (for tax reasons) and the US likewise (for legal reasons).
It was hot and sweaty if you were in a racing car with no air conditioning, driving under megawatts of floodlights.
If you were in the Paddock Club, on the other hand, it was lovely.
I have actually been there for the GP, the heat and humidity isn’t that bad for punters, especially if you’re used to the sandpit in summer! It’s 35ºC during the day, same as the hottest days in the UK. Wear a hat and drink lots of water.
The Harris campaign is toying with rises in CGT as well, so there could also be an exodus from the US. Most options are in Europe outside the EU, Middle East, or Asia
That's a question of what does a university actually sell - because as I said before the value is in the stamp of authenticity attached to the name of the university as much as anything else
What they’re primarily selling is scarcity and reputation, at a time when information is freely available.
What they are really dealing with is how to think ie what to do with all those masses of information.
Gathering information and training in the accepted way of processing it is best left to technical colleges.
Outside of strict specialisms, very few people really learn more at University than they would with 3 years relevant job experience.
What is being sold is a sorting exercise - a way to tell employers you're better than the other candidates. Sadly given how easily degrees are given out, 95% of the value is accomplished through admissions.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
Before Tesla, the standard belief was that
1) EVs will have rubbish range, be terrible cars and take forever to recharge
After the Roadster
2) EVs must be expensive and take forever to recharge
After Supercharging
3) Supercharging will kill your battery in 10 recharges
etc etc
What was interesting was that that *none* of the above was not available as researched engineering solutions. Controlling the temperature of the battery with water cooling, for example - published papers with stats on the effects on battery life.
People will hate it, because his twitter profile/ownership and excessive trolling, but Tesla broke the mould it got battery manufacturing scale that made vehicles feasible. Of course the Chinese now have the edge. Elon is both a visionary genius and an arse. It's no fluke he is doing to space travel exactly what he has done for EVs. He is one of the most impactful people for the advancement of humanity this century.
He probably only made a difference of a few years on the tech and given he's using the disproportionate wealth and power that accrued from it to become the world's biggest far right troll there's a strong case to say we'd have been better off without him, net net.
Of course - cutting down on Tax avoidance and Tax evasion! Why did no one else think of that...
Love to see the details on that - because all the easy things have already been done.
What you are now left with are things that would make hiding harder - such as lowering VAT thresholds so that most companies need to report turnover...
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
Worries about range (and longevity) are why people aren't rushing to buy second hand cars. Add on the fact that range is improvingmeans that the starting point of depreciation wasn't the £40,000 you paid but the £30,000 a better car costs this year...
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
I'm currently driving an elderly diesel car and have long though that my next car will be electric: anybody got a recommendation for an EV that would be fine if bought second hand? I don't need a great range.
I have a Kia e-niro, 4 years old and battery range is as good as new. 280 (genuine) miles when fully charged, 230 in winter with heating and lights on. Lovely to drive and great build quality.
I charge at home and use public chargers about once per year, including regular trips to my folks in Hants and to the Isle of Wight without using one.
Range anxiety quickly wears off when you have an EV. The EV3 looks better still and even longer range, but a used e-niro is good value, particularly as have a 7 year warranty.
The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.
A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter, which is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.
One phenomenon going on quietly in the background, which should encourage the BoE to get off its arse on interest rates: the pound is the strongest it’s been in a while.
GBP:EUR 1.20, last seen in early 2022 before Truss etc, and before that briefly in Feb 2020.
GBP:USD 1.33, also the highest since Feb 2022.
Not quite the rates I grew up with (I remember the halcyon days of 2 dollars to the pound in the noughties) but the financial crisis put paid to any hope of those ever coming back.
A country which wants a higher exchange rate needs to:
1) Live within its means 2) Increase its savings rate 3) Improve its productivity 4) Create more wealth
Perhaps the main requirement for doing any of those is actually wanting to do so (as opposed to saying you want to).
we as a country very clearly dont want to do so.
Bingo - most people have absolutely no idea we are not a rich country anymore. Would be completely shocked to hear the USA is pushing 50% higher GDP per capita.
It hit me when i went to Poland this year. I imagined it as a run down former communist country instead i was in a modern country with infrastructure better than the uk and a much lower cost of living. Even Bucharest in Romania is now as rich as northern england
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
Worries about range (and longevity) are why people aren't rushing to buy second hand cars. Add on the fact that range is improvingmeans that the starting point of depreciation wasn't the £40,000 you paid but the £30,000 a better car costs this year...
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
I'm currently driving an elderly diesel car and have long though that my next car will be electric: anybody got a recommendation for an EV that would be fine if bought second hand? I don't need a great range.
I have a Kia e-niro, 4 years old and battery range is as good as new. 280 (genuine) miles when fully charged, 230 in winter with heating and lights on. Lovely to drive and great build quality.
I charge at home and use public chargers about once per year, including regular trips to my folks in Hants and to the Isle of Wight without using one.
Range anxiety quickly wears off when you have an EV. The EV3 looks better still and even longer range, but a used e-niro is good value, particularly as have a 7 year warranty.
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...
Literally my objections when it comes to planning are
1) does it directly impact someone?
if No it can be built.
What about indirect impacts?
Supermarkets have killed a lot of town centres. If we had required out of town development to charge for parking maybe we wouldn’t have so many boarded up bistros?
The freeport growth is going to bite us..,
I would suggest you head to Durham where Silver street (which has been dying for the past 15 years) is now full of restaurants and cafes.
The world moves on, add a bit of spare cash and town centres can thrive...
If only we had a local authority that wanted to do the same for many of the other parts of the county, aside from Seaham and Bishop.
Silver Street may be finally improving but down by the bus station is still a tip. The new bus station wasn't even open this morning when people went to get their buses.
Industrial strategy to be published at same time as Budget.
Edit: I wonder whether it will propose a national supercomputer for AI work?
It would be useful if they could describe a benefit of AI - at the moment I'm seeing an industry spending $bns to generate decisions I can't trust as when you drill down you get hallucinations - even on a limited dataset.
Being blunt I can't justify the prices I'm being asked to pay...
With the labour conference underway in Liverpool, what terms do Britons pick to describe the party?
Dishonest: 36% The same as the rest: 31% Only interested in themselves: 31% Has unworkable policies: 27% Should not be near power: 27% Interested in public service: 22% Fit to govern: 19% Nasty: 18% Unprofessional: 17% Seem like normal people: 16% Weak: 16% Has sensible policies: 15% Moderate: 14% Has a clear sense of purpose: 14% Divided: 14% Competent: 14% Boring: 11% Extremist: 10% Trustworthy: 8% Likeable: 7% Powerful: 7% Weird: 6% Distinct: 2%
So much for claims here of the freebies stories "not cutting through"
Competent - 14% Trustworthy - 8%
These are utterly horrific numbers. These werent the first hundred days we asked for, but the first hundred we got!
Labour’s dilemma in a nutshell: They can’t credibly deliver change without spending money, and they can’t credibly spend money without raising taxes. Raising taxes is unpopular. But so is failing to deliver improvements to a collapsing public realm
My replies full of people to the left of current govt invoking the wealth tax fairy and people to the right of the current govt invoking the productivity fairy.
Govt isn’t hard it seems. The answer to every tough choice is always “squeeze people I don’t like”.
Either that or do the magic growth dance and all the problems fall away. Because everyone knows the formula for growth is easy - and remarkably it always lines up perfectly with the ideological preferences of people with strong ideological preferences
The formula for growth is (partly) very easy. If you can get from place 1 to place 2 more easily growth occurs because people have options.
Everywhere else in Europe is building High speed backbone networks and metro lines. The fact Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham do not have underground metro networks is completely insane...
It's not just state infrastructure.
It depends on your view of this
1) Awesome, let's have some. Growth. 2) No, can't build things like that. No Growth.
Pick one. Either one. Don't whine about the outcome, though.
Is the view special - nope, so build...
Literally my objections when it comes to planning are
1) does it directly impact someone?
if No it can be built.
What about indirect impacts?
Supermarkets have killed a lot of town centres. If we had required out of town development to charge for parking maybe we wouldn’t have so many boarded up bistros?
The freeport growth is going to bite us..,
I would suggest you head to Durham where Silver street (which has been dying for the past 15 years) is now full of restaurants and cafes.
The world moves on, add a bit of spare cash and town centres can thrive...
If only we had a local authority that wanted to do the same for many of the other parts of the county, aside from Seaham and Bishop.
It's not up to the local authority.
Bishop is the story of 1 man approaching retirement and wanting to leave a legacy Seaham has the coast... Durham a lot of rich students and their parents...
The reason nowhere else is similar is because there isn't enough people there with spare cash and/or time
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
Worries about range (and longevity) are why people aren't rushing to buy second hand cars. Add on the fact that range is improvingmeans that the starting point of depreciation wasn't the £40,000 you paid but the £30,000 a better car costs this year...
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
I'm currently driving an elderly diesel car and have long though that my next car will be electric: anybody got a recommendation for an EV that would be fine if bought second hand? I don't need a great range.
I have a Kia e-niro, 4 years old and battery range is as good as new. 280 (genuine) miles when fully charged, 230 in winter with heating and lights on. Lovely to drive and great build quality.
I charge at home and use public chargers about once per year, including regular trips to my folks in Hants and to the Isle of Wight without using one.
Range anxiety quickly wears off when you have an EV. The EV3 looks better still and even longer range, but a used e-niro is good value, particularly as have a 7 year warranty.
Leicester to Southampton 145 miles. Leicester to anywhere else in Hants less. You are like a 5'8" man saying he has no problem with 5'10" headroom doorways.
New polling from The NY Times/Siena is not good for Harris in the sun belt .
Showing large drops especially in Arizona where Trump leads by 5 points compared to their last poll.
It’s just one poll but perhaps a wake up call to those of us who want a Harris win .
The election will end up coming down to about 100 votes in Pennsylvania. There will be multiple challenges and rechallenges as Trump alleges a big conspiracy.
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
Worries about range (and longevity) are why people aren't rushing to buy second hand cars. Add on the fact that range is improvingmeans that the starting point of depreciation wasn't the £40,000 you paid but the £30,000 a better car costs this year...
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
I'm currently driving an elderly diesel car and have long though that my next car will be electric: anybody got a recommendation for an EV that would be fine if bought second hand? I don't need a great range.
I have a Kia e-niro, 4 years old and battery range is as good as new. 280 (genuine) miles when fully charged, 230 in winter with heating and lights on. Lovely to drive and great build quality.
I charge at home and use public chargers about once per year, including regular trips to my folks in Hants and to the Isle of Wight without using one.
Range anxiety quickly wears off when you have an EV. The EV3 looks better still and even longer range, but a used e-niro is good value, particularly as have a 7 year warranty.
Leicester to Southampton 145 miles. Leicester to anywhere else in Hants less. You are like a 5'8" man saying he has no problem with 5'10" headroom doorways.
My longest journey would normally be about 175 miles (at Christmas), so anything over 200 should be fine. Having said that, I would want to know about recharging points at my destination.
Given this I wouldn't have much confidence our taxes will be paying for an impartial review.
Yes, Labour's hypocrisy on this is massive.
I fear if Covid had happened under SKS, we'd still be waiting for the PPE three years later.
Except of course we wouldn't, because they'd have done similar to the Conservative government. Not exactly the same, but the same sort of choices. There was no magic bullet; and few good guys in the procurement chain.
Beth Rigby @BethRigby · 3m BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise
Beth Rigby @BethRigby · 3m BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise
Beth Rigby @BethRigby · 3m BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise
Well of course. This was always coming when they saw what others were getting.
The scale of Labour’s gifting is minute compared to the Tories. The Tories who used our money to fund the lifestyle of their mates.
So whilst it is a bad look for Labour and I strongly condemn it, is it really a good look for the Tories to constantly draw attention to their own failings over 14 years?
But as pointed out below, they aren't really drawing attention to it. It's journalists doing that.
Client journalists, the right wing press, think tanks and Conservative party operate together. Even more alarming now that billionaires, such as Paul Marshall, own elements of the press and are substantial donors to the think tanks and political parties. What is being driven now is their undiluted personal political view / vision.
How is Paul Marshall different from Rupert Murdoch?
He supports the Evangelical movement in the UK. He was a cuckoo in the LibDem nest and helped publish the Orange Book. I think, that without Marshall, the LibDem coalition agreement would have not been so right wing. He's very influential and has been operating under the radar.
Beth Rigby @BethRigby · 3m BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise
It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges
The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
“Like” isn’t the right reaction to that. Germany looks to be heading for a serious recession. The pressure on the EU to slow down the electric car mandates is going to be immense.
Who’d have thought that France’s August anomoly might have been Olympics-related? Large international sporting or cultural events almost always have a positive impact on the host nations.
How is that going to help, except perhaps in the very short term ?
Because governments are trying to force a change by regulation for which the technology isn’t yet ready, it’s killing the European car industry and threatens to hand a large chunk of it to China.
European car production was up 11% in 2023.
The EV momentum is unstoppable now and none of the OEMs wanted to be last manufacturer stranded with an ICE dominated product line. It's being driven by Chinese consumers as much as regulation. EV/PHEV sales are over 50% of the Chinese market and it's rising fast. They don't have the reactionary and emotional attachment to ICE vehicles that the US and Europe do. Any manufacturer that pulls back from EVs is kissing the Chinese market goodbye.
Outside of the true premium market - I don't think any none Chinese manufacturer has a chance in China anymore..
The other thing is that the point where EV is cheaper to own and run is somewhere between already here (see China) and a couple of years off.
In many countries, the cheaper vehicle that cuts down oil imports, will be absolutely unstoppable.
The European faff about EVs is like the American faff about high speed rail or contactless credit cards. Treating it as a headscratcher of a hypothetical idea that might never catch on, and ignoring the fact the rest of the world already has it.
I used to carshare with a Mechanical Engineering Prof. Ended the share with the pandemic and other reasons. He was very strongly of the opinion that EV would never work, never take off. His main beef was the lack of range and need to charge for extended periods.
And all the while the mechanical engineers in the automotive industry have been solving those challenges. Makes me want to share with him again to see what he is thinking now.
Leon is a colossal arse at times, but he is right on one thing - people often struggle to see the change around the corner - the normalcy bias. I worry if I am doing the same re the future of University education in the face of AI.
On the range point, BYD recently announced its LFP batteries - which have taken over because they're considerably cheaper to produce than other chemistries - are set to increase in energy capacity by around 50% over the next couple of years. They're already 'good enough' to capture nearly half the Chinese auto market. It won't be all that long before it will be impossible to sell ICE vehicles competitively, anywhere.
Absolutely agree about normalcy bias. Leon isn't immune himself.
And that's one of the bits that has changed- battery technology. The other is that electricity from solar has approached the "too cheap to meter" stage. And neither of those is likely to pass across the desk of a prof in mechanical engineering very often, but they're both important for vehicles.
It's the trouble with being a boffin these days. There's so much to know that the old ambition of knowing more than enough about everything that mattered just isn't attainable any more.
Here is an interesting view of the current state of the EV market:
In particular he cites the lack of resale value and worries about range. Improved batteries would seem to me to solve both those problems.
The resale value problem isn't driven by battery quality or capacity. The root issue is uncertainty; it's very difficult to tell the extent to which a BEV's battery pack is degraded. The car's onboard systems are useless for this purpose as projected range is something between a formulation based on WLTP and a random number. So, if people don't know if they are buying a clapped out piece of shit or not, that naturally depresses the price.
I can do it (for Porsche, BMW and Audi) but I am a Level 99 Car Wizard. Your average punter and plastic slip-on clad independent used dealer has no chance.
Beth Rigby @BethRigby · 3m BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise
I mean 5.5% is pretty a decent pay rise, but given the crazy pay rises they've given to doctors and train drivers I say good on the nurses!
Comments
It's like the early days of Android / iPhones where next years phone had such significant changes that the previous years model was almost worthless instantly. Nowadays an iphone has a 4-5 year almost straight line depreciation curve.
Your reminder that at labour conference 1997 Blair issued a "no triumphalism" order. Not much danger of that today.
Upcoming budget speculation not once.
The trend is away from ICE. Resisting it is pointless. Embrace it and plan for it.
He is one of the most impactful people for the advancement of humanity this century.
10% of 2019 LD voters switched to the Tories, whereas only 7% of 2019 Tory voters switched to the LDs.
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1810342835364737321
Few constitutional rights can be upheld in such an absolutist manner without infringing competing rights. That's been understood for centuries.
So no, it's not at all hard to see how the logic works. The law, even with the current nuts on the Supreme Court, accepts some restriction on what arms can be owned.
Having said only the other day that growing up she had no political role models to follow.
She was born a couple of months before Margaret Thatcher became PM.
Supermarkets have killed a lot of town centres. If we had required out of town development to charge for parking maybe we wouldn’t have so many boarded up bistros?
The freeport growth is going to bite us..,
Look at how quickly Teslas now depreciate, compared to what was the case only a couple of years back.
Tarquin is being dragged out of the hall.
The world moves on, add a bit of spare cash and town centres can thrive...
Harris leads polling on gun control.
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1825039647816220780?t=eHhEXBBeX3mvGOt6XHLj5Q&s=19
So while there is a strong US gun culture, there is also demand for the sort of policies she has, including constitutionally.
There were role models. Thatcher was PM while she was growing up.
She lists a load of Labour role models and yet only the other day she said had none growing up.
That means I need a car with a range of say 340 miles - which the new EV3 does. So when I said earlier I was looking at the Renault 5 I can really rule it out.
Gathering information and training in the accepted way of processing it is best left to technical colleges.
What is being sold is a sorting exercise - a way to tell employers you're better than the other candidates. Sadly given how easily degrees are given out, 95% of the value is accomplished through admissions.
What you are now left with are things that would make hiding harder - such as lowering VAT thresholds so that most companies need to report turnover...
Edit: I wonder whether it will propose a national supercomputer for AI work?
the WCML needs a bypass, that needs a terminal in central London which is Euston...
I charge at home and use public chargers about once per year, including regular trips to my folks in Hants and to the Isle of Wight without using one.
Range anxiety quickly wears off when you have an EV. The EV3 looks better still and even longer range, but a used e-niro is good value, particularly as have a 7 year warranty.
Showing large drops especially in Arizona where Trump leads by 5 points compared to their last poll.
It’s just one poll but perhaps a wake up call to those of us who want a Harris win .
Hmmm. Chinese EV says 'hi'.
Silver Street may be finally improving but down by the bus station is still a tip. The new bus station wasn't even open this morning when people went to get their buses.
Durham still has much to do.
Being blunt I can't justify the prices I'm being asked to pay...
Bishop is the story of 1 man approaching retirement and wanting to leave a legacy
Seaham has the coast...
Durham a lot of rich students and their parents...
The reason nowhere else is similar is because there isn't enough people there with spare cash and/or time
Given this I wouldn't have much confidence our taxes will be paying for an impartial review.
Is there anyone in government with a brain?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6ez6p567do
I fear if Covid had happened under SKS, we'd still be waiting for the PPE three years later.
Except of course we wouldn't, because they'd have done similar to the Conservative government. Not exactly the same, but the same sort of choices. There was no magic bullet; and few good guys in the procurement chain.
@BethRigby
·
3m
BREAKING: As Reeves talks about honouring public sector pay body recommendations, the Royal College of Nurses have rejected the government's pay award of a 5.5% rise
He was a cuckoo in the LibDem nest and helped publish the Orange Book. I think, that without Marshall, the LibDem coalition agreement would have not been so right wing. He's very influential and has been operating under the radar.
She's got a good record of being impartial and not bought.
Or Shami Chakrabarti...
What a dose of cold water poured over Reeves
I can do it (for Porsche, BMW and Audi) but I am a Level 99 Car Wizard. Your average punter and plastic slip-on clad independent used dealer has no chance.