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Yes we Kem? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,006

    rcs1000 said:

    It is not impossible, surely, that path was lab -> wet market -> the world?

    And it is far from impossible, either, that the wet market was a necessary step in the evolution of the virus, providing an environment where an otherwise fairly unremarkable bat virus became dramatically more virulent.
    We don't know, and possibly even can never know. It's a balance of probabilities, or Occam's razor.

    Only fools are certain about its origins.
    Only fools are certain about anything.

    But it is those who are the most certain, who make the most noise.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,071

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    that could be devastating for Starmer .
    I thought he was already on the way out, no?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,422
    Depressing that it's getting dark so early.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228

    Angela Rayner enjoyed stunning views of Manhattan and the Empire State Building on new year’s eve from a $2.5 million flat lent by the Labour donor at the centre of the row over freebies, The Telegraph can reveal.

    The Deputy Prime Minister spent five nights in the luxury Manhattan apartment, with views over New York from the 56th floor of a skyscraper.

    The two-bedroom property – totalling 1,300 sq ft – was lent to Ms Rayner by Lord Alli, the Labour peer, from Dec 29 to Jan 2 last year.

    According to the parliamentary register of interests, Ms Rayner was given a flat as accommodation for five nights to enjoy a “personal holiday”, which she said was worth an estimated £1,250 overall.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/angela-rayner-new-year-luxury-manhattan-flat-lord-alli/

    We talked about hotel prices in North America, don't get much for £250 / night these days.

    LOL! Ange doesn't sound quite such a working class hero does she? 😂
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,271

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    that could be devastating for Starmer .
    It was a not very well kept secret that the Downing Street party organiser couldn't bear Gray, particularly when he felt she tucked him up over his party invitation emails.

    I don't know whether Gray is good, bad or indifferent but the Party Planner should have been shown the door years ago.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    Andy_JS said:

    Depressing that it's getting dark so early.

    Autumn, Andy J.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    He's useless anyway, thankfully.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    We always were allowed to talk about AI. The ban was only for one poster.
    You’re the guy that posted an obviously AI image while insisting it was real. Which is a bannable offence
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Chinese zoo creates fake pandas by painting dogs:

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1787950536857460976
  • Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    that could be devastating for Starmer .
    Hardly. Case has been expected to leave the role for a while now.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-simon-case-health-politics-cabinet-boris-johnson-liz-truss-eu/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,865
    rcs1000 said:

    It is not impossible, surely, that path was lab -> wet market -> the world?

    And it is far from impossible, either, that the wet market was a necessary step in the evolution of the virus, providing an environment where an otherwise fairly unremarkable bat virus became dramatically more virulent.
    It is exceedingly unlikely that the virus got out of the lab and somehow travelled to the other side of a large city, without infecting anyone else along the way, and then infected an animal in the wet market and no-one or nothing else (and all evidence that the virus was ever stored in the lab has been successfully scrubbed). That’s a pretty desperate attempt to try and save the lab leak hypothesis.

    We know wet markets are a major risk for zoonotic events. We know SARS got into humans via palm civets. We know palm civets and some related species were in the Wuhan market, and this new study shows the close relationship between wet market environmental samples with SARS-CoV-2 and such species.

    The lab leak hypothesis was dead and buried. This study has dug up the coffin and hammered an extra nail in.
  • kle4 said:

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    He's useless anyway, thankfully.
    The Guardian reported on the people they had lined up to replace him, all people who have failed in their last job.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    Some of us said at the time, the appointment of Sue Gray would eventually come back to bite SKS.

    She's very much becoming the story and I predict she'll be gone within a couple of years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    Chinese zoo creates fake pandas by painting dogs:

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1787950536857460976

    Hah. Saw some (real ones) at Chengdu zoo 20 years ago. Does Edinburgh still have them too ?
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    rcs1000 said:

    It is not impossible, surely, that path was lab -> wet market -> the world?

    And it is far from impossible, either, that the wet market was a necessary step in the evolution of the virus, providing an environment where an otherwise fairly unremarkable bat virus became dramatically more virulent.
    It is exceedingly unlikely that the virus got out of the lab and somehow travelled to the other side of a large city, without infecting anyone else along the way, and then infected an animal in the wet market and no-one or nothing else (and all evidence that the virus was ever stored in the lab has been successfully scrubbed). That’s a pretty desperate attempt to try and save the lab leak hypothesis.

    We know wet markets are a major risk for zoonotic events. We know SARS got into humans via palm civets. We know palm civets and some related species were in the Wuhan market, and this new study shows the close relationship between wet market environmental samples with SARS-CoV-2 and such species.

    The lab leak hypothesis was dead and buried. This study has dug up the coffin and hammered an extra nail in.
    Passionate intensity
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Well it’s more interesting than watching the Arsenal.

    Not worth watching since Thierry Henri left.
    SKS has accepted freebies to Taylor Swift concerts not once but
    twice.
    But not, I think it should be noted, Radiohead.
    Wasn't there an issue with coldplay tickets? There's so much sleaze so quickly that it is hard to keep up.

    As the judge said: "Who are or were Coldplay?"

    "Poor man's Radiohead your honour."
    Suck up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    that could be devastating for Starmer .
    It will be an open and shut case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    Chinese zoo creates fake pandas by painting dogs:

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1787950536857460976

    Not a bad effort.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    kle4 said:

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    He's useless anyway, thankfully.
    The Guardian reported on the people they had lined up to replace him, all people who have failed in their last job.
    Naturally - those doing the recruiting look at the positions previously held, not how well the person did in that position.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    that could be devastating for Starmer .
    Hardly. Case has been expected to leave the role for a while now.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-simon-case-health-politics-cabinet-boris-johnson-liz-truss-eu/
    Starmer's already devastated. He is a great British comic creation, whether that's Brittas or Pooter or Clouseau. Sit back and enjoy the show now and/or look forward to Springtime For Starmer, the musical in the 2040s.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 736
    edited September 19
    GIN1138 said:

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    Some of us said at the time, the appointment of Sue Gray would eventually come back to bite SKS.

    She's very much becoming the story and I predict she'll be gone within a couple of years.
    If Case resigns that may not be the crushing blow to the Govt that some imagine.

    I predict those targeting Gray will be gone in a lot less than two years. Whether that is the best scenario I have no idea but that is what will happen. As to 'the story' you can't imagine how little people care
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,865
    mercator said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It is not impossible, surely, that path was lab -> wet market -> the world?

    And it is far from impossible, either, that the wet market was a necessary step in the evolution of the virus, providing an environment where an otherwise fairly unremarkable bat virus became dramatically more virulent.
    It is exceedingly unlikely that the virus got out of the lab and somehow travelled to the other side of a large city, without infecting anyone else along the way, and then infected an animal in the wet market and no-one or nothing else (and all evidence that the virus was ever stored in the lab has been successfully scrubbed). That’s a pretty desperate attempt to try and save the lab leak hypothesis.

    We know wet markets are a major risk for zoonotic events. We know SARS got into humans via palm civets. We know palm civets and some related species were in the Wuhan market, and this new study shows the close relationship between wet market environmental samples with SARS-CoV-2 and such species.

    The lab leak hypothesis was dead and buried. This study has dug up the coffin and hammered an extra nail in.
    Passionate intensity
    What is? People doing studies to answer scientific questions, and them publishing them in peer-reviewed high impact journals? I guess it takes a certain passion for one’s work to do that, a certain intensity to perform high quality research.
  • Chinese zoo creates fake pandas by painting dogs:

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1787950536857460976

    Housing theory of everything strikes again.

    Zoo officials said that the size of the enclosure did not allow them to keep real pandas, so they created fake pandas.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    How does Starmer keep making it worse?

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1836799309271974192

    NEW: Keir Starmer says 'most people' would say 'fair dos' in response to him being gifted a corporate hospitality box by Arsenal
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited September 19

    How does Starmer keep making it worse?

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1836799309271974192

    NEW: Keir Starmer says 'most people' would say 'fair dos' in response to him being gifted a corporate hospitality box by Arsenal

    Its all the lawyerly stuff, "seats elsewhere in the stadium"....He does realise the media are then going to do what the tweet does "means private box".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    An excellent question. If the "technology revolution" turns out anywhere near the hype it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many.

    So no change there.
    "it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many."

    Incorrect. Wildly wrong. Misguided, and you don't really believe that do you?
    Yes I do. I don't genuflect to the market. I genuflect to enlightened activist government.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    mercator said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    #BREAKING: Source familiar w/ forthcoming CNN story says revelations about Robinson include him saying things in online chats about liking transgender porn, peeping inside women’s locker rooms while he studied at NC A&T and wanting to own slaves. #ncpol
    How is any of that more disqualifying that reports of previous things he has said?

    Will he go the 'it was a joke' route I wonder? I've definitely joked about supporting slavery and genocide, though only in very precise company that wouldn't sell the story to a newspaper (and now PB)
    Surely not at the same time? If you support genocide there’s probably no one left to be slaves.
    Research the phrase Vernichtung durch Arbeit. Not really all that funny.
    The humourless internet embodied in one post.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    Some of us said at the time, the appointment of Sue Gray would eventually come back to bite SKS.

    She's very much becoming the story and I predict she'll be gone within a couple of years.
    If Case resigns that may not be the crushing blow to the Govt that some imagine.

    I predict those targeting Gray will be gone in a lot less than two years. Whether that is the best scenario I have no idea but that is what will happen. As to 'the story' you can't imagine how little people care
    Remember, Sue Gray spent several years "running a pub in Ulster", alongside whatever else she was doing at the time.

    Whether it's office politics or a bare-knuckle fight, I know who my money is on.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
    I didn’t say that or anything like it. And I was referring to the 10% who work in Westminster doing thankless jobs like trying to cover up the ignorance of our Foreign Secretary. I suspect my estimates for their income, as opposed to the poor sods working in Work and Pensions in Barnsley, is not far off.
  • How does Starmer keep making it worse?

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1836799309271974192

    NEW: Keir Starmer says 'most people' would say 'fair dos' in response to him being gifted a corporate hospitality box by Arsenal

    Starmer's idea of 'most people' is, I suspect, rather different to most people's idea of 'most people'.

    But perhaps not too different to Ed Miliband's 'common people of Dartmouth Park'.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911

    rcs1000 said:

    It is not impossible, surely, that path was lab -> wet market -> the world?

    And it is far from impossible, either, that the wet market was a necessary step in the evolution of the virus, providing an environment where an otherwise fairly unremarkable bat virus became dramatically more virulent.
    It is exceedingly unlikely that the virus got out of the lab and somehow travelled to the other side of a large city, without infecting anyone else along the way, and then infected an animal in the wet market and no-one or nothing else (and all evidence that the virus was ever stored in the lab has been successfully scrubbed). That’s a pretty desperate attempt to try and save the lab leak hypothesis.

    We know wet markets are a major risk for zoonotic events. We know SARS got into humans via palm civets. We know palm civets and some related species were in the Wuhan market, and this new study shows the close relationship between wet market environmental samples with SARS-CoV-2 and such species.

    The lab leak hypothesis was dead and buried. This study has dug up the coffin and hammered an extra nail in.
    How many times do you have to be told. The Wuhan centre for disease and control, part of the Nexus of Wuhan labs holding and investigating bats, and bat viruses, was THREE HUNDRED METRES from the wet market

    You’ve been told this a dozen times yet you entirely ignore it
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441

    boulay said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

    Taylor Swift has to deal with a huge amount of intrusive media interest and other shit, and handles it all with great magnanimity, only releasing her feelings in occasional acerbic song lyrics. If only more people in the world took her as their role model rather than Elon Musk or Donald Trump.
    Problem is, Taylor Swift’s whole career is based on songs where she sings about how she made bad choices over people so her backing of Kamala isn’t ideal.
    That's one take. Admittedly a ludicrous take, especially given Taylor Swift had/has sense enough NOT to pick Donald Trump.

    But haters gotta hate?
    Your ferocity at lighthearted banter is a wonder to behold. I would love her voice to help defeat Trump but you do have to find the funnier ironies in life otherwise it’s all a bit grim. As for your criticism, I will just shake it off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    Good evening from Gatwick awaiting my flight home. 6 days away, knackered, and of course this is the first day this week that easyJet have managed to arse this flight up. If I get home before midnight I will be doing well.

    And what awaits me when I get home? I have ruined myself slightly with a week of increasingly drunken debauchery. So I need to reconnect with my diet…

    Poo

    A week of increasingly drunken debauchery? Yes, that is typical for the LibDem party conference.
    Well how else would you get through the speakers?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    How does Starmer keep making it worse?

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1836799309271974192

    NEW: Keir Starmer says 'most people' would say 'fair dos' in response to him being gifted a corporate hospitality box by Arsenal

    Its all the lawyerly stuff, "seats elsewhere in the stadium"....He does realise the media are then going to do what the tweet does "means private box".
    Genuinely never occurred to him that maybe he just can’t do some things any more….
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited September 19
    biggles said:

    How does Starmer keep making it worse?

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1836799309271974192

    NEW: Keir Starmer says 'most people' would say 'fair dos' in response to him being gifted a corporate hospitality box by Arsenal

    Its all the lawyerly stuff, "seats elsewhere in the stadium"....He does realise the media are then going to do what the tweet does "means private box".
    Genuinely never occurred to him that maybe he just can’t do some things any more….
    I think the response should have been fairly easy.

    I love taking my kids to the football, as so many families do, its something we have done for years, but unfortunately as PM i am not going to be able to do that as often I would like due to work commitments and security issues. I hope to still be able to go from time to time, but I won't be able to sit in my old seats, Arsenal have given me the option of using a box, which I will pay for.
  • DavidL said:

    Good evening from Gatwick awaiting my flight home. 6 days away, knackered, and of course this is the first day this week that easyJet have managed to arse this flight up. If I get home before midnight I will be doing well.

    And what awaits me when I get home? I have ruined myself slightly with a week of increasingly drunken debauchery. So I need to reconnect with my diet…

    Poo

    A week of increasingly drunken debauchery? Yes, that is typical for the LibDem party conference.
    Well how else would you get through the speakers?
    What's the equivalent for the Conservatives?

    Diazepam?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441

    How does Starmer keep making it worse?

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1836799309271974192

    NEW: Keir Starmer says 'most people' would say 'fair dos' in response to him being gifted a corporate hospitality box by Arsenal

    Its all the lawyerly stuff, "seats elsewhere in the stadium"....He does realise the media are then going to do what the tweet does "means private box".
    Two of my favourite tv series, Braquo and Brassic revolve around people doing something bad and then everything they do to try and fix the original “bad” drags them deeper into shit. Seems to be the game plan for the brilliant forensic lawyer Sir Keir Starmer. Did he actually ever have to duke it out in court against a good barrister?
  • Yup - if you want to knw what interests people about the Govt at the moment it is the stickiness of Starmer's fingers. That looks really bad and could really linger unless the Govt can show some real achievements.

    Ask 90% of folk about Sue Gray and you will get a simple answer - who?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Pulpstar said:

    Chinese zoo creates fake pandas by painting dogs:

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1787950536857460976

    Hah. Saw some (real ones) at Chengdu zoo 20 years ago. Does Edinburgh still have them too ?
    No, they went home a few years ago having failed to produce any offspring. Insert your own joke about the Scottish government here.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    edited September 19
    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
    I didn’t say that or anything like it. And I was referring to the 10% who work in Westminster doing thankless jobs like trying to cover up the ignorance of our Foreign Secretary. I suspect my estimates for their income, as opposed to the poor sods working in Work and Pensions in Barnsley, is not far off.
    Nah, you’re way off. There are broadly speaking four senior civil service grades, and there are only about 5-10,000 senior civil servants nationwide.

    The least senior grade starts at 70k, the next about 90k, then 120k; before we get to Perm Secs in your bracket. The top two grades is about 300 people.

    If the median number is 35k, as above, then the London number might be 40-45k.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,865

    Yup - if you want to knw what interests people about the Govt at the moment it is the stickiness of Starmer's fingers. That looks really bad and could really linger unless the Govt can show some real achievements.

    Ask 90% of folk about Sue Gray and you will get a simple answer - who?

    Most of the current reporting is people going through publicly available declarations. The information was available but no-one was reporting it because it’s small fry. The Tories accepted £5 million from Frank Hester, who Sunak had condemned for his racist comments, shortly before the election, but the Tories are currently irrelevant, so that’s not become a big news story.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    A postie with no car who goes on huge hiking holidays..

    I'm definitely walking class

    I'm concerned about your diet

    I have one tin of soup in the house, Campbell's french onion, which says it went bad in August 2019. It also says 400g and I am disappointed to note that is what the scales make it (I was hoping for 400g net)

    5 tins of soup is 2 kilos. 2 kilos is a lot.

    Campbell's chicken and rice soup is 220 calories a can

    Now consider this

    https://evaq8.co.uk/Freeze-Dried-Food/freeze-dried-beef-goulash-meal-594kcal

    600 calories. 200 grams. 5 meals is 1 kilo and each meal is 3x as calorific. It's boiling water in bag so doesn't need a mess tin. As you are boiling the water you can source it anywhere, no need to carry it.

    Tins are for if you have a Sherpa or a mule.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    So how many types of Balsamic does Kemi have in her kitchen cupboard?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    An excellent question. If the "technology revolution" turns out anywhere near the hype it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many.

    So no change there.
    It isn't going to turn out like that. It never does, and it can't.

    And the biggest reason why it can't is that the system as a whole, including the wealthiest movers, shakers and money makers requires one irreplaceable thing, and that is a gargantuan global number of prosperous customers.

    "Prosperous neighbours make good customers" should be the motto of everyone who wants world peace and sane harmony. It should be the motto of the UN.
    The world's natural dynamics prevent the enrichment of a few at the expense of the many?

    Hmm.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    I would for a team I actually follow, just because the view is usually rubbish. I do feel sorry for him on that basis. It seems he actually likes Arsenal and those are rubbish seats if you actually want to watch.
  • DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Chinese zoo creates fake pandas by painting dogs:

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1787950536857460976

    Hah. Saw some (real ones) at Chengdu zoo 20 years ago. Does Edinburgh still have them too ?
    No, they went home a few years ago having failed to produce any offspring. Insert your own joke about the Scottish government here.
    "Those pandas you sold me, they won't mate. They just walk around tweeting, and not mating. You sold me... queer pandas. I want my money back!"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited September 19

    Yup - if you want to knw what interests people about the Govt at the moment it is the stickiness of Starmer's fingers. That looks really bad and could really linger unless the Govt can show some real achievements.

    Ask 90% of folk about Sue Gray and you will get a simple answer - who?

    Most of the current reporting is people going through publicly available declarations. The information was available but no-one was reporting it because it’s small fry. The Tories accepted £5 million from Frank Hester, who Sunak had condemned for his racist comments, shortly before the election, but the Tories are currently irrelevant, so that’s not become a big news story.
    That isn't what set this off though...it the stink around giving donors passes, parachuting in other donors to supposedly impartial positions, and these declarations not being 100% honest about what they actually were. When your pitch was we only care about public service, we are whiter than whiter and aggressively criticising the Tories over similar things.

    The problem for Starmer is then his reaction was I don't care, I am going to keep taking the freebies, I am not taking any lessons from the Tories, country over party, end cronyism, no WFA for pensioners, more tax for everybody, my father was a tool maker, change is coming.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    DavidL said:

    Good evening from Gatwick awaiting my flight home. 6 days away, knackered, and of course this is the first day this week that easyJet have managed to arse this flight up. If I get home before midnight I will be doing well.

    And what awaits me when I get home? I have ruined myself slightly with a week of increasingly drunken debauchery. So I need to reconnect with my diet…

    Poo

    A week of increasingly drunken debauchery? Yes, that is typical for the LibDem party conference.
    Well how else would you get through the speakers?
    What's the equivalent for the Conservatives?

    Diazepam?
    I think I would be looking for something a little bit stronger.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,865

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    In principle I agree. But it won’t, will it? There’ll be a “pasty tax” equivalent. Perhaps something they have planned could be presented as hitting “normal” clothes so as to link back to this story.

    I hate our political journalism.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    biggles said:

    mercator said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    #BREAKING: Source familiar w/ forthcoming CNN story says revelations about Robinson include him saying things in online chats about liking transgender porn, peeping inside women’s locker rooms while he studied at NC A&T and wanting to own slaves. #ncpol
    How is any of that more disqualifying that reports of previous things he has said?

    Will he go the 'it was a joke' route I wonder? I've definitely joked about supporting slavery and genocide, though only in very precise company that wouldn't sell the story to a newspaper (and now PB)
    Surely not at the same time? If you support genocide there’s probably no one left to be slaves.
    Research the phrase Vernichtung durch Arbeit. Not really all that funny.
    The humourless internet embodied in one post.
    Sorry, had filed slavery and genocide not under not funny, but under it had better be a decent joke. You need to work on your rib tickling skills.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    I don't think it is unreasonable to expect those given power over us to be held to a standard that is better than most of us engage in.

    I don't think its a massive issue, but it is a needless own goal.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    But he isn’t most people. He is the knight against Tory sleaze,the Director of Public Prosecutions who punished more miscreants in his lunch break than Rishi Sunak had Cobra meetings about refugees. He’s the superhero we were waiting for to rid us of politicians taking freebies.

    He’s Sir Keir Cleaner, he is maiming politics pure again.

    Anyway, how’s the UEFA lobbying about the Independent Football Regulator going? Has there been any noise from gov that they won’t trample on UEFA’s toes?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-uefa-fa-football-b2614719.html
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,865

    Yup - if you want to knw what interests people about the Govt at the moment it is the stickiness of Starmer's fingers. That looks really bad and could really linger unless the Govt can show some real achievements.

    Ask 90% of folk about Sue Gray and you will get a simple answer - who?

    Most of the current reporting is people going through publicly available declarations. The information was available but no-one was reporting it because it’s small fry. The Tories accepted £5 million from Frank Hester, who Sunak had condemned for his racist comments, shortly before the election, but the Tories are currently irrelevant, so that’s not become a big news story.
    That isn't what set this off though...it the stink around giving donors passes, parachuting in other donors to supposedly impartial positions, and these declarations not being 100% honest about what they actually were. When your pitch was we only care about public service, we are whiter than whiter.

    The problem for Starmer is then his reaction was I don't care, I am going to keep taking the freebies, I am not taking any lessons from the Tories.
    You’re right, this was started off by some more substantive things. But my point is that the media are trying to continue it with a bunch of irrelevancies, because the news cycle works that way.

    The donor pass, the late declaration. Not good. I didn’t vote for Starmer or Labour. I’m not saying he’s perfect. But I can also tell a big story from trifles.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited September 19

    Yup - if you want to knw what interests people about the Govt at the moment it is the stickiness of Starmer's fingers. That looks really bad and could really linger unless the Govt can show some real achievements.

    Ask 90% of folk about Sue Gray and you will get a simple answer - who?

    Most of the current reporting is people going through publicly available declarations. The information was available but no-one was reporting it because it’s small fry. The Tories accepted £5 million from Frank Hester, who Sunak had condemned for his racist comments, shortly before the election, but the Tories are currently irrelevant, so that’s not become a big news story.
    That isn't what set this off though...it the stink around giving donors passes, parachuting in other donors to supposedly impartial positions, and these declarations not being 100% honest about what they actually were. When your pitch was we only care about public service, we are whiter than whiter.

    The problem for Starmer is then his reaction was I don't care, I am going to keep taking the freebies, I am not taking any lessons from the Tories.
    You’re right, this was started off by some more substantive things. But my point is that the media are trying to continue it with a bunch of irrelevancies, because the news cycle works that way.

    The donor pass, the late declaration. Not good. I didn’t vote for Starmer or Labour. I’m not saying he’s perfect. But I can also tell a big story from trifles.
    You might have noticed over the past few years I don't think much of the media either....but they love this kind of stuff, how many 100k's words were written about some horrid wallpaper for #10 flat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Of course you do

    Shame the PM is a clueless grifter who keeps offering journos (who don’t run the country) these juicy stories. Then he makes them worse with his pompous wankery
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    mercator said:

    biggles said:

    mercator said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    #BREAKING: Source familiar w/ forthcoming CNN story says revelations about Robinson include him saying things in online chats about liking transgender porn, peeping inside women’s locker rooms while he studied at NC A&T and wanting to own slaves. #ncpol
    How is any of that more disqualifying that reports of previous things he has said?

    Will he go the 'it was a joke' route I wonder? I've definitely joked about supporting slavery and genocide, though only in very precise company that wouldn't sell the story to a newspaper (and now PB)
    Surely not at the same time? If you support genocide there’s probably no one left to be slaves.
    Research the phrase Vernichtung durch Arbeit. Not really all that funny.
    The humourless internet embodied in one post.
    Sorry, had filed slavery and genocide not under not funny, but under it had better be a decent joke. You need to work on your rib tickling skills.
    I shall DM things for your approval in future.
  • So how many types of Balsamic does Kemi have in her kitchen cupboard?

    Malt vinegar = working class

    Balsamic vinegar = affluent working class

    Apple cider vinegar 'with the mother' = middle class
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,505

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Yes, that's the scam of travel journalists. They get freebies from tourism authorities, hotels etc and are expected to produce puff pieces passed off as journalism, when it's really just advertising.

    Of course that isn't the contract, but slag off a place as dull and expensive and the commissions dry up very quickly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,865
    boulay said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    But he isn’t most people. He is the knight against Tory sleaze,the Director of Public Prosecutions who punished more miscreants in his lunch break than Rishi Sunak had Cobra meetings about refugees. He’s the superhero we were waiting for to rid us of politicians taking freebies.

    He’s Sir Keir Cleaner, he is maiming politics pure again.

    Anyway, how’s the UEFA lobbying about the Independent Football Regulator going? Has there been any noise from gov that they won’t trample on UEFA’s toes?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-uefa-fa-football-b2614719.html
    Johnson was sleaze. Sunak was mainly just incompetent. Starmer is PM because he’s the knight against Tory incompetence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911
    Just seen a fent addict badly OD-ing in downtown Couver. The dark side
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
    I didn’t say that or anything like it. And I was referring to the 10% who work in Westminster doing thankless jobs like trying to cover up the ignorance of our Foreign Secretary. I suspect my estimates for their income, as opposed to the poor sods working in Work and Pensions in Barnsley, is not far off.
    Nah, you’re way off. There are broadly speaking four senior civil service grades, and there are only about 5-10,000 senior civil servants nationwide.

    The least senior grade starts at 70k, the next about 90k, then 120k; before we get to Perm Secs in your bracket. The top two grades is about 300 people.

    If the median number is 35k, as above, then the London number might be 40-45k.
    Median is £88970 for senior civil servants in the London area according to this: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/civil-service-pay
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    So how many types of Balsamic does Kemi have in her kitchen cupboard?

    Malt vinegar = working class

    Balsamic vinegar = affluent working class

    Apple cider vinegar 'with the mother' = middle class
    White vinegar knows its place?
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Yes. The point you are missing is that Klouseau and Rosa Klebb between them could have brought on the budget a month ago. Architects of their own misfortune.

    And just to prognosticate, they will look ten times as hopeless this time next week. I am expecting an IDS Quiet Man level offering from the big man, even if he is nicely dressed for it.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441
    Foxy said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Yes, that's the scam of travel journalists. They get freebies from tourism authorities, hotels etc and are expected to produce puff pieces passed off as journalism, when it's really just advertising.

    Of course that isn't the contract, but slag off a place as dull and expensive and the commissions dry up very quickly.
    I’m sure there is a travel journalist on here, can’t remember his or her name, who is quite vocal about downsides to places. Also travel journalism, and this will shock you, isn’t as important as being whiter than white when you are running a country.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited September 19
    Leon said:

    Just seen a fent addict badly OD-ing in downtown Couver. The dark side

    I hear the super soft on drug policy hasn't worked very well, not as bad as Portland or SF, but has made the problem much more visible.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,865
    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
    I didn’t say that or anything like it. And I was referring to the 10% who work in Westminster doing thankless jobs like trying to cover up the ignorance of our Foreign Secretary. I suspect my estimates for their income, as opposed to the poor sods working in Work and Pensions in Barnsley, is not far off.
    Nah, you’re way off. There are broadly speaking four senior civil service grades, and there are only about 5-10,000 senior civil servants nationwide.

    The least senior grade starts at 70k, the next about 90k, then 120k; before we get to Perm Secs in your bracket. The top two grades is about 300 people.

    If the median number is 35k, as above, then the London number might be 40-45k.
    Median is £88970 for senior civil servants in the London area according to this: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/civil-service-pay
    So half the £150k figure claimed.
  • boulay said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    But he isn’t most people. He is the knight against Tory sleaze,the Director of Public Prosecutions who punished more miscreants in his lunch break than Rishi Sunak had Cobra meetings about refugees. He’s the superhero we were waiting for to rid us of politicians taking freebies.

    He’s Sir Keir Cleaner, he is maiming politics pure again.

    Anyway, how’s the UEFA lobbying about the Independent Football Regulator going? Has there been any noise from gov that they won’t trample on UEFA’s toes?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-uefa-fa-football-b2614719.html
    Johnson was sleaze. Sunak was mainly just incompetent. Starmer is PM because he’s the knight against Tory incompetence.
    Sunak and Starmer have similar characteristics

    Sunak excellent on finance, Starmer on the CPS, but both terrible at politics
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911

    So how many types of Balsamic does Kemi have in her kitchen cupboard?

    Malt vinegar = working class

    Balsamic vinegar = affluent working class

    Apple cider vinegar 'with the mother' = middle class
    Mornington Peninsula artisanal pomegranate vinegar?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
    I didn’t say that or anything like it. And I was referring to the 10% who work in Westminster doing thankless jobs like trying to cover up the ignorance of our Foreign Secretary. I suspect my estimates for their income, as opposed to the poor sods working in Work and Pensions in Barnsley, is not far off.
    Nah, you’re way off. There are broadly speaking four senior civil service grades, and there are only about 5-10,000 senior civil servants nationwide.

    The least senior grade starts at 70k, the next about 90k, then 120k; before we get to Perm Secs in your bracket. The top two grades is about 300 people.

    If the median number is 35k, as above, then the London number might be 40-45k.
    Median is £88970 for senior civil servants in the London area according to this: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/civil-service-pay
    Which maps to my numbers, roughly, eyeballing it. But my point is that they are a pretty tiny number of folk doing jobs that broadly should attract at least that pay.
  • Do we know how long B.A.C consulting (the front company making pagers in Hungary) in existence?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,680

    Yup - if you want to knw what interests people about the Govt at the moment it is the stickiness of Starmer's fingers. That looks really bad and could really linger unless the Govt can show some real achievements.

    Ask 90% of folk about Sue Gray and you will get a simple answer - who?

    Most of the current reporting is people going through publicly available declarations. The information was available but no-one was reporting it because it’s small fry. The Tories accepted £5 million from Frank Hester, who Sunak had condemned for his racist comments, shortly before the election, but the Tories are currently irrelevant, so that’s not become a big news story.
    That isn't what set this off though...it the stink around giving donors passes, parachuting in other donors to supposedly impartial positions, and these declarations not being 100% honest about what they actually were. When your pitch was we only care about public service, we are whiter than whiter.

    The problem for Starmer is then his reaction was I don't care, I am going to keep taking the freebies, I am not taking any lessons from the Tories.
    You’re right, this was started off by some more substantive things. But my point is that the media are trying to continue it with a bunch of irrelevancies, because the news cycle works that way.

    The donor pass, the late declaration. Not good. I didn’t vote for Starmer or Labour. I’m not saying he’s perfect. But I can also tell a big story from trifles.
    That was my view initially.
    But it turns out there are a lot of trifles. An improbably large number of trifles. Absolutely shitloads of trifles. A whole confectionery factory of trifles. Labour are looking very custardy indeed. If it was just one dress, ot just one Taylot Swift concert, or just one football match, or just one trip to New York, or just one pair of glasses ... But it's not; it's out of all proportion to any of their predecessors. It's within the rules, but only in the same way that the duck-house-on-expenses was within the rules. It's absolutely taking the piss.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
    I didn’t say that or anything like it. And I was referring to the 10% who work in Westminster doing thankless jobs like trying to cover up the ignorance of our Foreign Secretary. I suspect my estimates for their income, as opposed to the poor sods working in Work and Pensions in Barnsley, is not far off.
    Nah, you’re way off. There are broadly speaking four senior civil service grades, and there are only about 5-10,000 senior civil servants nationwide.

    The least senior grade starts at 70k, the next about 90k, then 120k; before we get to Perm Secs in your bracket. The top two grades is about 300 people.

    If the median number is 35k, as above, then the London number might be 40-45k.
    Median is £88970 for senior civil servants in the London area according to this: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/civil-service-pay
    So half the £150k figure claimed.
    But double your estimate. Draw?
  • To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    There is nothing phoney about this and wanting to move the agenda because you do not like it is not going to work

    Starmer's interview on ITV was crass entitlement
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441

    boulay said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    But he isn’t most people. He is the knight against Tory sleaze,the Director of Public Prosecutions who punished more miscreants in his lunch break than Rishi Sunak had Cobra meetings about refugees. He’s the superhero we were waiting for to rid us of politicians taking freebies.

    He’s Sir Keir Cleaner, he is maiming politics pure again.

    Anyway, how’s the UEFA lobbying about the Independent Football Regulator going? Has there been any noise from gov that they won’t trample on UEFA’s toes?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-uefa-fa-football-b2614719.html
    Johnson was sleaze. Sunak was mainly just incompetent. Starmer is PM because he’s the knight against Tory incompetence.
    Keir oozes competence. It’s comes out of his pores and ruins his suits, stains his wife’s dress and they all cry about the dry cleaning bill until Lord Ali sweeps in and replaces their wardrobe, literally their wardrobe just in case the ooze of competence has defiled their new clothes he has bought. He’s helpfully off just now to check Victoria Sponge’s lingerie drawer to ensure no competence has left it’s sticky mess there.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    edited September 19

    A postie with no car who goes on huge hiking holidays..

    I'm definitely walking class

    I'm in the shit. Which makes me...(drumroll)...midden class! B)
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Leon said:

    So how many types of Balsamic does Kemi have in her kitchen cupboard?

    Malt vinegar = working class

    Balsamic vinegar = affluent working class

    Apple cider vinegar 'with the mother' = middle class
    Mornington Peninsula artisanal pomegranate vinegar?
    American Riviera Orchard for me. Don't know about the price, Megs sends me samples.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    Cookie said:

    Yup - if you want to knw what interests people about the Govt at the moment it is the stickiness of Starmer's fingers. That looks really bad and could really linger unless the Govt can show some real achievements.

    Ask 90% of folk about Sue Gray and you will get a simple answer - who?

    Most of the current reporting is people going through publicly available declarations. The information was available but no-one was reporting it because it’s small fry. The Tories accepted £5 million from Frank Hester, who Sunak had condemned for his racist comments, shortly before the election, but the Tories are currently irrelevant, so that’s not become a big news story.
    That isn't what set this off though...it the stink around giving donors passes, parachuting in other donors to supposedly impartial positions, and these declarations not being 100% honest about what they actually were. When your pitch was we only care about public service, we are whiter than whiter.

    The problem for Starmer is then his reaction was I don't care, I am going to keep taking the freebies, I am not taking any lessons from the Tories.
    You’re right, this was started off by some more substantive things. But my point is that the media are trying to continue it with a bunch of irrelevancies, because the news cycle works that way.

    The donor pass, the late declaration. Not good. I didn’t vote for Starmer or Labour. I’m not saying he’s perfect. But I can also tell a big story from trifles.
    That was my view initially.
    But it turns out there are a lot of trifles. An improbably large number of trifles. Absolutely shitloads of trifles. A whole confectionery factory of trifles. Labour are looking very custardy indeed. If it was just one dress, ot just one Taylot Swift concert, or just one football match, or just one trip to New York, or just one pair of glasses ... But it's not; it's out of all proportion to any of their predecessors. It's within the rules, but only in the same way that the duck-house-on-expenses was within the rules. It's absolutely taking the piss.
    They weren’t ready for, or disciplined enough for, Government. Unfortunately the other lot needed to lose so they had to come in.

    The fault of a combination of Corbyn for the former and Boris for the latter really.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited September 19
    "Part of Mr and Mrs Starmer’s problem is the pettiness and immediacy of their grift. They are like a wealthy couple who can’t wait to check in to a struggling but charming 3 star hotel so they can steal the tiny soaps and the little towels, and maybe a bottle of average wine"

    https://x.com/thomasknox/status/1836844933833183497

    There is a particular kind of upper middle class person, who always looking to find something to complain about at a hotel, restaurant, product in a shop, just to able to push for a discount / room upgrade. We have all seen them.

    That reminds me I need to write a letter of complaint about poor service I received, I will be asking for a discount ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    boulay said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    But he isn’t most people. He is the knight against Tory sleaze,the Director of Public Prosecutions who punished more miscreants in his lunch break than Rishi Sunak had Cobra meetings about refugees. He’s the superhero we were waiting for to rid us of politicians taking freebies.

    He’s Sir Keir Cleaner, he is maiming politics pure again.

    Anyway, how’s the UEFA lobbying about the Independent Football Regulator going? Has there been any noise from gov that they won’t trample on UEFA’s toes?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-uefa-fa-football-b2614719.html
    Johnson was sleaze. Sunak was mainly just incompetent. Starmer is PM because he’s the knight against Tory incompetence.
    Sunak and Starmer have similar characteristics

    Sunak excellent on finance, Starmer on the CPS, but both terrible at politics
    Each had been an MP for less than 10 years before becoming PM, and neither spent much time on the backbenches learning their trade.

    Then again we've had some right duffers with decades of experience.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    But he isn’t most people. He is the knight against Tory sleaze,the Director of Public Prosecutions who punished more miscreants in his lunch break than Rishi Sunak had Cobra meetings about refugees. He’s the superhero we were waiting for to rid us of politicians taking freebies.

    He’s Sir Keir Cleaner, he is maiming politics pure again.

    Anyway, how’s the UEFA lobbying about the Independent Football Regulator going? Has there been any noise from gov that they won’t trample on UEFA’s toes?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-uefa-fa-football-b2614719.html
    Johnson was sleaze. Sunak was mainly just incompetent. Starmer is PM because he’s the knight against Tory incompetence.
    Keir oozes competence. It’s comes out of his pores and ruins his suits, stains his wife’s dress and they all cry about the dry cleaning bill until Lord Ali sweeps in and replaces their wardrobe, literally their wardrobe just in case the ooze of competence has defiled their new clothes he has bought. He’s helpfully off just now to check Victoria Sponge’s lingerie drawer to ensure no competence has left it’s sticky mess there.
    When he is not enjoying private box in his mate's penthouse. Or have I misunderstood the story?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911

    "Part of Mr and Mrs Starmer’s problem is the pettiness and immediacy of their grift. They are like a wealthy couple who can’t wait to check in to a struggling but charming 3 star hotel so they can steal the tiny soaps and the little towels, and maybe a bottle of average wine"

    https://x.com/thomasknox/status/1836844933833183497

    There is a particular kind of upper middle class person, who always looking to find something to complain about at a hotel, restaurant, product in a shop, just to able to push for a discount / room upgrade. We have all seen them.

    Yes, this is they

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,505
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Yes, that's the scam of travel journalists. They get freebies from tourism authorities, hotels etc and are expected to produce puff pieces passed off as journalism, when it's really just advertising.

    Of course that isn't the contract, but slag off a place as dull and expensive and the commissions dry up very quickly.
    I’m sure there is a travel journalist on here, can’t remember his or her name, who is quite vocal about downsides to places. Also travel journalism, and this will shock you, isn’t as important as being whiter than white when you are running a country.
    Slagging the place off on an obscure blog and slagging it off in print are two different things.

    Sure, it doesn't amount to a hill of beans because it's mostly tomorrow's budgie cage liner, but it is part of how we accept corruption in daily life.

    I have had a number of drug company freebies over the years to speak and focus group, but always declare them when speaking. Does that completely mitigate the financial compromise? Not entirely.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    edited September 19
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
    I didn’t say that or anything like it. And I was referring to the 10% who work in Westminster doing thankless jobs like trying to cover up the ignorance of our Foreign Secretary. I suspect my estimates for their income, as opposed to the poor sods working in Work and Pensions in Barnsley, is not far off.
    Nah, you’re way off. There are broadly speaking four senior civil service grades, and there are only about 5-10,000 senior civil servants nationwide.

    The least senior grade starts at 70k, the next about 90k, then 120k; before we get to Perm Secs in your bracket. The top two grades is about 300 people.

    If the median number is 35k, as above, then the London number might be 40-45k.
    Median is £88970 for senior civil servants in the London area according to this: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/civil-service-pay
    So half the £150k figure claimed.
    But double your estimate. Draw?
    Their number was for civil servants, including London. Yours is for a tiny very senior management layer in London.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    Leon said:

    Just seen a fent addict badly OD-ing in downtown Couver. The dark side

    I hear the super soft on drug policy hasn't worked very well, not as bad as Portland or SF, but has made the problem much more visible.
    If we are going to have an informed discussion about drug policy this is the sort of thing that we need to look at. The war on drugs has been a total disaster with very large numbers of dead. But jumping to the conclusion anything goes because it seems to have done ok in Portugal is perhaps every bit as dangerous.

    We really need someone to look carefully at what works and what doesn’t.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Just seen a fent addict badly OD-ing in downtown Couver. The dark side

    I hear the super soft on drug policy hasn't worked very well, not as bad as Portland or SF, but has made the problem much more visible.
    If we are going to have an informed discussion about drug policy this is the sort of thing that we need to look at. The war on drugs has been a total disaster with very large numbers of dead. But jumping to the conclusion anything goes because it seems to have done ok in Portugal is perhaps every bit as dangerous.

    We really need someone to look carefully at what works and what doesn’t.
    For once, it’s actually a good one for a Royal Commission.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441
    mercator said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    But he isn’t most people. He is the knight against Tory sleaze,the Director of Public Prosecutions who punished more miscreants in his lunch break than Rishi Sunak had Cobra meetings about refugees. He’s the superhero we were waiting for to rid us of politicians taking freebies.

    He’s Sir Keir Cleaner, he is maiming politics pure again.

    Anyway, how’s the UEFA lobbying about the Independent Football Regulator going? Has there been any noise from gov that they won’t trample on UEFA’s toes?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-uefa-fa-football-b2614719.html
    Johnson was sleaze. Sunak was mainly just incompetent. Starmer is PM because he’s the knight against Tory incompetence.
    Keir oozes competence. It’s comes out of his pores and ruins his suits, stains his wife’s dress and they all cry about the dry cleaning bill until Lord Ali sweeps in and replaces their wardrobe, literally their wardrobe just in case the ooze of competence has defiled their new clothes he has bought. He’s helpfully off just now to check Victoria Sponge’s lingerie drawer to ensure no competence has left it’s sticky mess there.
    When he is not enjoying private box in his mate's penthouse. Or have I misunderstood the story?
    We all dream of a private box but these days girls aren’t a one chap gig. Or have I mistook “private box”?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,526
    biggles said:

    So how many types of Balsamic does Kemi have in her kitchen cupboard?

    Malt vinegar = working class

    Balsamic vinegar = affluent working class

    Apple cider vinegar 'with the mother' = middle class
    White vinegar knows its place?
    The laundry. White wine vinegar, possibly.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Just seen a fent addict badly OD-ing in downtown Couver. The dark side

    I hear the super soft on drug policy hasn't worked very well, not as bad as Portland or SF, but has made the problem much more visible.
    If we are going to have an informed discussion about drug policy this is the sort of thing that we need to look at. The war on drugs has been a total disaster with very large numbers of dead. But jumping to the conclusion anything goes because it seems to have done ok in Portugal is perhaps every bit as dangerous.

    We really need someone to look carefully at what works and what doesn’t.
    Oregon has notably resiled from its Anything Goes legislation (though it's reasonable to think the spike in problems is because more and cheaper fent, not the law).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,505
    On Topic:

    Burger flipping in McDonalds? Luxury!

    I spent a summer cleaning the toilets and deep fat fryers in a Wimpy.

    I used to dream of burger flipping!

    (Actually, I did flip burgers too, and deep fry benders)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    So how many types of Balsamic does Kemi have in her kitchen cupboard?

    Malt vinegar = working class

    Balsamic vinegar = affluent working class

    Apple cider vinegar 'with the mother' = middle class
    A quick check in the kitchen:

    1 bottle of Sarsons malt vinegar.

    3 types of Balsamic.

    1 bottle of cyder vinegar (with a "Y").

    And...

    1 bottle of pomegranate molasses.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,505
    mercator said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Just seen a fent addict badly OD-ing in downtown Couver. The dark side

    I hear the super soft on drug policy hasn't worked very well, not as bad as Portland or SF, but has made the problem much more visible.
    If we are going to have an informed discussion about drug policy this is the sort of thing that we need to look at. The war on drugs has been a total disaster with very large numbers of dead. But jumping to the conclusion anything goes because it seems to have done ok in Portugal is perhaps every bit as dangerous.

    We really need someone to look carefully at what works and what doesn’t.
    Oregon has notably resiled from its Anything Goes legislation (though it's reasonable to think the spike in problems is because more and cheaper fent, not the law).
    I suspect that comparing opiate death rates in US States with and without legal cannabis might be an interesting comparison. I expect both are up, but which by more might be a pointer.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Yes, that's the scam of travel journalists. They get freebies from tourism authorities, hotels etc and are expected to produce puff pieces passed off as journalism, when it's really just advertising.

    Of course that isn't the contract, but slag off a place as dull and expensive and the commissions dry up very quickly.
    I’m sure there is a travel journalist on here, can’t remember his or her name, who is quite vocal about downsides to places. Also travel journalism, and this will shock you, isn’t as important as being whiter than white when you are running a country.
    Slagging the place off on an obscure blog and slagging it off in print are two different things.

    Sure, it doesn't amount to a hill of beans because it's mostly tomorrow's budgie cage liner, but it is part of how we accept corruption in daily life.

    I have had a number of drug company freebies over the years to speak and focus group, but always declare them when speaking. Does that completely mitigate the financial compromise? Not entirely.
    There is a big gap between corruption and giving a leg up to a business or place you were asked to do so. It won’t massively change the world if 10,000 spectator readers go to Vancouver but it matters if people think the Premier league got off lightly with the new regulator because SKS got a box at Arsenal.

    I honestly agree with other posters that the premier couple should be dressed by the best of British Designers free of charge - the French would not bat an eyelid, but the piety and holier than thou shit by Starmer and then the sort of cheap way it’s been done is terrible.

    If SKS said “ maybe I was a bit of a dick about freebies and I get that I’m in a job representing the best of British, Labour will never ever again criticise an opponent doing this promoting feee clothes” then that’s great. But he was such an epic cock. Like I wrote before, he’s Oliver Cromwell without the sense of humour.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited September 19
    Speaking of Winnipeg . . . as PBers so often do . . .

    CBC analysis - Tories feeling blue in Elmwood-Transcona after trying to convince orange voters to see red - Why a novel Conservative byelection campaign strategy may have backfired

    . . . In this week's [federal] Manitoba byelection, the Conservatives employed [an] unusual strategy.

    They tried to retake Elmwood-Transcona, an eastern Winnipeg riding that's belonged to the NDP for all but four years of its existence, by trying to ensure voters were keenly aware of the two-year governance deal between the New Democrats and the unpopular governing Liberals.

    Running against one party by tying them to another was a novel strategy, U of M political studies Prof. Royce Koop said earlier this month.

    "The Liberals are very unpopular. They're certainly not competitive in that seat," and so an attempt to tie the NDP to them "makes some sense," he said.

    "But you don't see that all the time."

    After what happened on Monday night in Elmwood-Transcona, you may never see it again.

    When the strategy is too successful
    When the final poll was counted on byelection night, NDP candidate Leila Dance had 48 per cent of the popular vote, four points better than her Conservative competitor, Colin Reynolds.

    The Liberal candidate, Ian MacIntyre, received five per cent of the popular vote.

    That proved to be a disaster for the Conservatives, especially when you consider that the Liberal candidates in Elmwood-Transcona the last three general elections garnered from 12 to 30 per cent of the vote in the riding.

    On Monday, the Liberal vote cratered in Elmwood-Transcona to a degree unseen since 2011, helping the NDP's Dance beat Conservative Reynolds by 1,158 votes.

    This was not because the Conservative election strategy was unsuccessful. Rather, it appears to have been too successful.

    It's entirely possible Pierre Poilievre's party managed to remind voters in a riding rarely enamoured with the Liberals that most of them really don't like Trudeau and his party right now.

    For diehard left-of-centre voters, switching from the NDP to the Conservatives is not an easy manoeuvre. Nonetheless, the Conservative campaign appeared to do everything in its power to ensure voters who for all intents and purposes never vote Conservative that the Liberals are not the best political option for them right now. . . .

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/elmwood-transcona-conservative-byelection-strategy-1.7326238
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,911
    Foxy said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Yes, that's the scam of travel journalists. They get freebies from tourism authorities, hotels etc and are expected to produce puff pieces passed off as journalism, when it's really just advertising.

    Of course that isn't the contract, but slag off a place as dull and expensive and the commissions dry up very quickly.
    Travel journalism is hard. Surprisingly hard

    I mean, some people make it look easy - I guess they have a gift, I dunno - I knap flints as my main job and only do the travel stuff as hobby, really. But real pro travel journalism is extremely competitive - for obvious reasons - and it turns out that many are called and few are chosen. Every journalist has a go at it, but not many have the knack. And those few get the gigs

    Not quite the toss-em-off “puff pieces” you describe

    Try it for yourself. Try writing about a place that captures the spirit of it in a fresh and diverting way, that avoids cliche but ALSO avoids dipping into purple prose. Not as easy as it looks
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,271
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    To be fair to Keith, most people wouldn’t say no to a free private box

    Imagine if journalists had to declare all the freebies they’d received when writing articles.

    This is all phoney war stuff. Bring on the Budget! I want the UK political discourse here to move on to something more substantial.
    Yes, that's the scam of travel journalists. They get freebies from tourism authorities, hotels etc and are expected to produce puff pieces passed off as journalism, when it's really just advertising.

    Of course that isn't the contract, but slag off a place as dull and expensive and the commissions dry up very quickly.
    Travel journalism is hard. Surprisingly hard

    I mean, some people make it look easy - I guess they have a gift, I dunno - I knap flints as my main job and only do the travel stuff as hobby, really. But real pro travel journalism is extremely competitive - for obvious reasons - and it turns out that many are called and few are chosen. Every journalist has a go at it, but not many have the knack. And those few get the gigs

    Not quite the toss-em-off “puff pieces” you describe

    Try it for yourself. Try writing about a place that captures the spirit of it in a fresh and diverting way, that avoids cliche but ALSO avoids dipping into purple prose. Not as easy as it looks
    How the f*** did that "puff piece" jockey who writes in the Spectator get the gig?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,859

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I've retired except for translation and chairing my constituency CLP. I've wondered whether the translation work (mostly for the European Commission) will go, since they send a 95% correct draft translation, but although the pay per word has gone down the pay per hour remains decent (about £50/hour, with a minimum of £17.50 even if it's a single sentence) for zipping through the drafts, filling in the 5% and spotting any errors. It's a nice little retirement earner and I think they reckon the human eye is still important as you do occasinally catch the system totally misunderstanding something.
    Any news on the post retirement study ideas?
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