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Yes we Kem? – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,743

    Australia walking the cricket.

    Head is so far and away the best white ball batsman in the world right now. If you don’t get him early you’re toast.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,710
    edited September 19

    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    I’m amazed that he thinks he has some God-given right to watch the football.
    My wife and I said this. There was a version where he just said “oh well, I can’t go every week any more, but you can’t expect to be able to do everything as PM”.
    I'm less bothered by the footy than the clothing shite.

    There's at least a stab of an argument about security and god knows we seem to be in world where whackos are everywhere but the need for someone else to buy a pair of glasses and a suit? Come on - he's a highly paid lawyer/politician/party leader.
    Its seems lots of little things all adding up combined with his poor reactions to being questioned on it. Also, does he not realise the media absolutely love this shit, rather than doing hard yards working out effects of taking away WFA etc.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    kinabalu said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    An excellent question. If the "technology revolution" turns out anywhere near the hype it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many.

    So no change there.
    My views on how we deal with this depend entirely on whether or not I end up in the few.
  • HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    Those with IQs high enough to work in well paid tech jobs or creative enough not to be automated out. Everyone else via their universal basic incomes funded by inevitable robot taxes
    So it seems I will still be doing 100hr weeks then when 90% of the population are on UBI....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,710
    edited September 19

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    What, even with all the new expensive designer clobber?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,520

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,743

    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    I’m amazed that he thinks he has some God-given right to watch the football.
    My wife and I said this. There was a version where he just said “oh well, I can’t go every week any more, but you can’t expect to be able to do everything as PM”.
    I'm less bothered by the footy than the clothing shite.

    There's at least a stab of an argument about security and god knows we seem to be in world where whackos are everywhere but the need for someone else to buy a pair of glasses and a suit? Come on - he's a highly paid lawyer/politician/party leader.
    Its seems lots of little things all adding up combined with his poor reactions to being questioned on it. Also, does he not realise the media absolutely love this shit, rather than doing hard yards working out effects of taking away WFA etc.
    I also wonder if he has to pay tax on it. It’s a benefit from his employment, just like tips for a waiter. When you’re getting up to £100k a year this becomes a legitimate question.
  • Omnium said:

    A nun caught me dipping my balls in holy water.

    She told me I was sack-religious.

    I asked an AI to review all your prior posts and rank this one against them. It really is your best yet!
    Stolen from Popbitch.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,710
    edited September 19
    DavidL said:

    Australia walking the cricket.

    Head is so far and away the best white ball batsman in the world right now. If you don’t get him early you’re toast.
    He is, but English bowling attack is quite weak. Archer not back to his best, Carse has been banned all summer for betting and Potts, who the f##k know why he is in the team. Rashid is the only bowler up is top drawer with the white ball.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    I’m amazed that he thinks he has some God-given right to watch the football.
    My wife and I said this. There was a version where he just said “oh well, I can’t go every week any more, but you can’t expect to be able to do everything as PM”.
    I'm less bothered by the footy than the clothing shite.

    There's at least a stab of an argument about security and god knows we seem to be in world where whackos are everywhere but the need for someone else to buy a pair of glasses and a suit? Come on - he's a highly paid lawyer/politician/party leader.
    Its seems lots of little things all adding up combined with his poor reactions to being questioned on it. Also, does he not realise the media absolutely love this shit, rather than doing hard yards working out effects of taking away WFA etc.
    I also wonder if he has to pay tax on it. It’s a benefit from his employment, just like tips for a waiter. When you’re getting up to £100k a year this becomes a legitimate question.
    If he doesn’t have to, then I may have to speak to HR about some different remuneration models…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    Those with IQs high enough to work in well paid tech jobs or creative enough not to be automated out. Everyone else via their universal basic incomes funded by inevitable robot taxes
    So it seems I will still be doing 100hr weeks then when 90% of the population are on UBI....
    Probably and that 90% will be voting for ever higher taxes for you but more UBI for them and lower taxes on the part time contract work they can get
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    Those with IQs high enough to work in well paid tech jobs or creative enough not to be automated out. Everyone else via their universal basic incomes funded by inevitable robot taxes
    So it seems I will still be doing 100hr weeks then when 90% of the population are on UBI....
    Probably and that 90% will be voting for ever higher taxes for you but more UBI for them and lower taxes on the part time contract work they can get
    And then the robot revolution and the emancipation of the AI slaves will come.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    "But,' said Paul Pennyfeather, 'there is my honour. For generations the British bourgeoisie have spoken of themselves as gentlemen, and by that they have meant, among other things, a self-respecting scorn of irregular perquisites. It is the quality that distinguishes the gentleman from both the artist and the aristocrat. Now I am a gentleman. I can't help it: it's born in me. I just can't take that money.' "

    E A Waugh, Decline & Fall

    You don't get a more "irregular perquisite" than Lord Alli's Bounty

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,743
    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    I’m amazed that he thinks he has some God-given right to watch the football.
    My wife and I said this. There was a version where he just said “oh well, I can’t go every week any more, but you can’t expect to be able to do everything as PM”.
    I'm less bothered by the footy than the clothing shite.

    There's at least a stab of an argument about security and god knows we seem to be in world where whackos are everywhere but the need for someone else to buy a pair of glasses and a suit? Come on - he's a highly paid lawyer/politician/party leader.
    Its seems lots of little things all adding up combined with his poor reactions to being questioned on it. Also, does he not realise the media absolutely love this shit, rather than doing hard yards working out effects of taking away WFA etc.
    I also wonder if he has to pay tax on it. It’s a benefit from his employment, just like tips for a waiter. When you’re getting up to £100k a year this becomes a legitimate question.
    If he doesn’t have to, then I may have to speak to HR about some different remuneration models…
    I think the political class as a whole think taxes are for little people to pay.
  • England ended up maybe 60-70 short...think about that you need nearly 400 in a 50 over game to win....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,713
    kinabalu said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    An excellent question. If the "technology revolution" turns out anywhere near the hype it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many.

    So no change there.
    "it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many."

    Incorrect. Wildly wrong. Misguided, and you don't really believe that do you?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,520
    edited September 19
    biggles said:

    FFS. How have they got into this mess before even reaching the autumn equinox?


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    “Why don’t you buy your own suits?” asked BBC Yorks. “The important thing in all of this is that we follow the rules”

    This is going to be his “thing” isn’t it? Take the fuel allowance from people but live in luxury yourself off freebies. I never would have guessed he’d fall into that trap.
    Newstatesman this weekend reckons Wes Streeting, in their interview, might have let slip that cuts to "working age benefits" are looming.

    That's gonna go down a storm whilst the new frocks are being ironed ready for the BAFTAs are whatever.

  • I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

    Given she is in the same box every home game, could they not tint the windows so nobody can see in and then they wouldn't keep cutting the camera to her reaction?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509
    MattW said:



    Nice to see a post from you, Nick.

    Can you translate Mr Trump's speeches into English? :smile:

    Thanks! I'm still a regular lurker, but just post when there's something I happen to know a bit about. Translating Trump sounds like a REAL challenge...

    I'm mildly curious about changing attitude to politics as I get older (74). I don't feel in the least tempted to go Conservative as many elderly folk seem to, and if anything I'm more left-wing than I used to be and I still chair my CLP. But I care less about politics than I used to. Ultimately the world will do what it thinks best.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I’ve been pitching ideas about the “end of universities” to my editors at the Knappers Gazette. They refuse to consider any of them, despite taking lots of other ideas

    Intrigued, I’ve been asking them why they are so resistant. The main reason is because they think I’m wrong. Universities will be fine. On further investigation, their reason for thinking I’m wrong boils down to “we hope you’re wrong and we don’t want to think about a world where you’re right”

    Trouble is, I’m right. AI is a mortal threat to the entire higher education system. No one will take on £50k of debt to be educated for jobs that no longer exist, and also when AI can deliver the same education for a fraction of the price

    A small subset of rich kids will go to “uni” for the social skills they can learn, and for fun; most won’t, because they won’t want the debt
    All my university education taught me was how to cite the right papers, i.e. regurgitate the course material, into essay format, so I could quote what other people thought about things.

    My degrees look good on a CV and, if I'm feeling a bit vain, make me look vaguely intellectual. But it's mostly status signalling. And they were tuppence ha'penny in my day compared to what they cost now.

    In terms of real world value, there's very little. I certainly wouldn't get into 50k of debt for one.
    Yes quite

    This doesn’t please me because Britain is good at Higher Education and I think universities are intrinsically a good thing - for kids and for wider society

    I just don’t see how the business model works in the future. They are going to implode. A few prestigious ones will survive and maybe thrive, most of the average provincial ones will disappear

    A bit like what happened to newspapers, in fact
    We had it right when less than 10% went to University. Unfortunatly Major and Blair both saw increasing University numbers as a way of getting youth unemployment numbers down. They also failed to understand the principle of dilution. The more people who have a degree, the less intrinsicly valuable that qualification becomes.
    Every other developed world country sends far more than 10% to university. Countries sending even more to universities than the UK include Canada, Japan, South Korea and… er… Russia. Countries at similar levels include the US, Israel, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland. Bit lower and you get Spain, Greece, Denmark, Austria,

    A lot lower, but still above 10%, is Germany, China, Czechia, Mexico, Italy.

    10% or below is sub-Saharan Africa.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    England ended up maybe 60-70 short...think about that you need nearly 400 in a 50 over game to win....

    We are going to be seeing 500 scored quite often, quite soon, I think. They’ll tweak some rules about batting subs and power plays to make it happen.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,404
    kinabalu said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    An excellent question. If the "technology revolution" turns out anywhere near the hype it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many.

    So no change there.
    It isn't going to turn out like that. It never does, and it can't.

    And the biggest reason why it can't is that the system as a whole, including the wealthiest movers, shakers and money makers requires one irreplaceable thing, and that is a gargantuan global number of prosperous customers.

    "Prosperous neighbours make good customers" should be the motto of everyone who wants world peace and sane harmony. It should be the motto of the UN.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,723
    edited September 19
    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    biggles said:

    FFS. How have they got into this mess before even reaching the autumn equinox?


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    “Why don’t you buy your own suits?” asked BBC Yorks. “The important thing in all of this is that we follow the rules”

    This is going to be his “thing” isn’t it? Take the fuel allowance from people but live in luxury yourself off freebies. I never would have guessed he’d fall into that trap.
    Newstatesman this weekend reckons Wes Streeting, in their interview, might have let slip that cuts to "working age benefits" are looming.

    That's gonna go down a storm whilst the new frocks are being ironed ready for the BAFTAs are whatever.

    He can’t be THAT stupid…. He’ll lose his left flank to that, his (socially) right flank to Reform on immigration, and the people who want sensible Gvt to the LibDems or the Tories if they rediscover sanity. If the Tories have a brain, they will ensure that they do, and quickly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,314
    My own view on the current gen AI:

    Lots of jobs will be replaced; then, when people die after AI makes mistakes that even a semi-educated gibbon could have caught, lawyers will make lots of money. Some of those lawyers will use AI, and make mistakes. More lawyers are therefore hired.

    And we all end up being lawyers, sorting out the shit AI has done...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,743

    DavidL said:

    Australia walking the cricket.

    Head is so far and away the best white ball batsman in the world right now. If you don’t get him early you’re toast.
    He is, but English bowling attack is quite weak. Archer not back to his best, Carse has been banned all summer for betting and Potts, who the f##k know why he is in the team. Rashid is the only bowler up is top drawer with the white ball.
    I really think Payne should be given a go. Had a brilliant season in the T20 Blast, left hander, accurate and good in the power play.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,520
    edited September 19
    mercator said:

    "But,' said Paul Pennyfeather, 'there is my honour. For generations the British bourgeoisie have spoken of themselves as gentlemen, and by that they have meant, among other things, a self-respecting scorn of irregular perquisites. It is the quality that distinguishes the gentleman from both the artist and the aristocrat. Now I am a gentleman. I can't help it: it's born in me. I just can't take that money.' "

    E A Waugh, Decline & Fall

    You don't get a more "irregular perquisite" than Lord Alli's Bounty

    Perquisite. Such a good word.

    And he remains one of the masters of comedy.

    I reread Scoop a few months ago. Modern paperback Penguin version. Somehow it had escaped the woke police and seemed to remain true to the text.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,378

    England ended up maybe 60-70 short...think about that you need nearly 400 in a 50 over game to win....

    250 used to be a good score.
  • My own view on the current gen AI:

    Lots of jobs will be replaced; then, when people die after AI makes mistakes that even a semi-educated gibbon could have caught, lawyers will make lots of money. Some of those lawyers will use AI, and make mistakes. More lawyers are therefore hired.

    And we all end up being lawyers, sorting out the shit AI has done...

    Christ, the last thing the world needs is more lawyers....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    Andy_JS said:

    England ended up maybe 60-70 short...think about that you need nearly 400 in a 50 over game to win....

    250 used to be a good score.
    220 was par…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,404

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I’ve been pitching ideas about the “end of universities” to my editors at the Knappers Gazette. They refuse to consider any of them, despite taking lots of other ideas

    Intrigued, I’ve been asking them why they are so resistant. The main reason is because they think I’m wrong. Universities will be fine. On further investigation, their reason for thinking I’m wrong boils down to “we hope you’re wrong and we don’t want to think about a world where you’re right”

    Trouble is, I’m right. AI is a mortal threat to the entire higher education system. No one will take on £50k of debt to be educated for jobs that no longer exist, and also when AI can deliver the same education for a fraction of the price

    A small subset of rich kids will go to “uni” for the social skills they can learn, and for fun; most won’t, because they won’t want the debt
    All my university education taught me was how to cite the right papers, i.e. regurgitate the course material, into essay format, so I could quote what other people thought about things.

    My degrees look good on a CV and, if I'm feeling a bit vain, make me look vaguely intellectual. But it's mostly status signalling. And they were tuppence ha'penny in my day compared to what they cost now.

    In terms of real world value, there's very little. I certainly wouldn't get into 50k of debt for one.
    Yes quite

    This doesn’t please me because Britain is good at Higher Education and I think universities are intrinsically a good thing - for kids and for wider society

    I just don’t see how the business model works in the future. They are going to implode. A few prestigious ones will survive and maybe thrive, most of the average provincial ones will disappear

    A bit like what happened to newspapers, in fact
    We had it right when less than 10% went to University. Unfortunatly Major and Blair both saw increasing University numbers as a way of getting youth unemployment numbers down. They also failed to understand the principle of dilution. The more people who have a degree, the less intrinsicly valuable that qualification becomes.
    Every other developed world country sends far more than 10% to university. Countries sending even more to universities than the UK include Canada, Japan, South Korea and… er… Russia. Countries at similar levels include the US, Israel, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland. Bit lower and you get Spain, Greece, Denmark, Austria,

    A lot lower, but still above 10%, is Germany, China, Czechia, Mexico, Italy.

    10% or below is sub-Saharan Africa.
    No idea if this is comparing like with like, but huge numbers of people would be best served by top quality (ie, this is as important as Oxford) skills and qualification based FE provided locally and given proper respect and regard by schools, politicians and media.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    My own view on the current gen AI:

    Lots of jobs will be replaced; then, when people die after AI makes mistakes that even a semi-educated gibbon could have caught, lawyers will make lots of money. Some of those lawyers will use AI, and make mistakes. More lawyers are therefore hired.

    And we all end up being lawyers, sorting out the shit AI has done...

    Christ, the last thing the world needs is more lawyers....
    Careful. They’ll sue.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,069

    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    I’m amazed that he thinks he has some God-given right to watch the football.
    My wife and I said this. There was a version where he just said “oh well, I can’t go every week any more, but you can’t expect to be able to do everything as PM”.
    I'm less bothered by the footy than the clothing shite.

    There's at least a stab of an argument about security and god knows we seem to be in world where whackos are everywhere but the need for someone else to buy a pair of glasses and a suit? Come on - he's a highly paid lawyer/politician/party leader.
    I find it hard to believe that the frames he wears are very costly. I know that's a minor element of the charges so the lens prescriptions are presumably very complex.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,136

    My own view on the current gen AI:

    Lots of jobs will be replaced; then, when people die after AI makes mistakes that even a semi-educated gibbon could have caught, lawyers will make lots of money. Some of those lawyers will use AI, and make mistakes. More lawyers are therefore hired.

    And we all end up being lawyers, sorting out the shit AI has done...

    It will overreach, just like Indian call centres for banks and chatbots for insurers (with no phone number to call) have.

    People want humanity.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    Some interesting new architecture in 'Wallpaper'

    https://www.wallpaper.com/architecture/joslyn-art-museum-snohetta-omaha-usa
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,713

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    At about 30mins a week of productive activity that's a good wage.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,066
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain | Bagehot
    The bungee-jumping, sandal-clad right-wingers of British politics
    If the Liberal Democrats want to replace the Conservatives, they must move further right on the economy "

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/09/18/the-bungee-jumping-sandal-clad-right-wingers-of-british-politics

    Been saying this for weeks.
    Yes and they won't which is why I think the Tories can recover a fair amount of the lost ground from the Lib Dems in the south, especially when Labour put up taxes and they don't oppose it.
    As an (entirely inactive) Lib Dem, I think it should be possible so long as it's framed correctly.

    The key is centre-right economics, while remaining strongly socially liberal and environmentally friendly. There's a strong market for that. It's the platform Cameron won on, and which the Tories are abandoning.

    Re-introducing the insurance-based principle into the NHS is a good place to start, along with giving autonomy to individual Trusts. At first glance a right wing policy, but with the right universality and underpin (see Europe, not the US), it could result in more health spending by those who can afford it, more capital investment, and less top down labour bargaining. It would be a, admittedly probably very unpopular, liberal centre right policy.

    I'm lots of other examples of how our economic policy could be improved that the Lib Dems would not shy away from. Potentially some of them are even politically viable.

    What you won't see is blaming everything on migrants and benefits scroungers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990

    Leon said:

    Er, what? How much more of this is yet to emerge?


    “Labour given £4m from tax haven-based hedge fund with shares in oil and arms

    Quadrature’s donation is noteworthy not just for being Labour’s largest-ever, but for its timing ahead of election”

    https://x.com/markseddon1962/status/1836413324830867492?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Well if they had shares in oil then they were being bloody stupid donating to Labour. The regret will have been very rapid I suspect.
    Hedge funds will have shares in lots of things. Headlines like this just demonstrate financial ignorance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,743

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,513
    biggles said:



    Too soon?

    I have seen a lot darker, very funny stuff, which I won’t post here because it’s 2024 and I’d probably go the jail.
    Me too. I shall risk this one, though: "From the Liver to the Knee".
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    I’m amazed that he thinks he has some God-given right to watch the football.
    My wife and I said this. There was a version where he just said “oh well, I can’t go every week any more, but you can’t expect to be able to do everything as PM”.
    I'm less bothered by the footy than the clothing shite.

    There's at least a stab of an argument about security and god knows we seem to be in world where whackos are everywhere but the need for someone else to buy a pair of glasses and a suit? Come on - he's a highly paid lawyer/politician/party leader.
    Its seems lots of little things all adding up combined with his poor reactions to being questioned on it. Also, does he not realise the media absolutely love this shit, rather than doing hard yards working out effects of taking away WFA etc.
    It's the government who have fallen down on working out the effects of taking away WFA - they had a duty to carry out an impact assessment and they didn't.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990

    DavidL said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Well it’s more interesting than watching the Arsenal.

    Not worth watching since Thierry Henri left.
    SKS has accepted freebies to Taylor Swift concerts not once but
    twice.
    But not, I think it should be noted, Radiohead.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,314
    Roger said:
    I like that, both inside and outside. How it works as a practical building is another matter...
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,069

    MattW said:



    Nice to see a post from you, Nick.

    Can you translate Mr Trump's speeches into English? :smile:

    Thanks! I'm still a regular lurker, but just post when there's something I happen to know a bit about. Translating Trump sounds like a REAL challenge...

    I'm mildly curious about changing attitude to politics as I get older (74). I don't feel in the least tempted to go Conservative as many elderly folk seem to, and if anything I'm more left-wing than I used to be and I still chair my CLP. But I care less about politics than I used to. Ultimately the world will do what it thinks best.
    I'm 75. It doesn't feel to me as though my views have changed much. It feels that society has just shifted left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    edited September 19

    biggles said:

    FFS. How have they got into this mess before even reaching the autumn equinox?


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    “Why don’t you buy your own suits?” asked BBC Yorks. “The important thing in all of this is that we follow the rules”

    This is going to be his “thing” isn’t it? Take the fuel allowance from people but live in luxury yourself off freebies. I never would have guessed he’d fall into that trap.
    Newstatesman this weekend reckons Wes Streeting, in their interview, might have let slip that cuts to "working age benefits" are looming.

    That's gonna go down a storm whilst the new frocks are being ironed ready for the BAFTAs are whatever.

    So first he infuriated pensioners by cutting their WFA but could get away with that as they are mostly Tory. If he cuts working age benefits too then he loses swing voters who voted Labour in July to the Tories, Reform and LDs.

    The party of Labour under Starmer has become the party of well paid public sector workers, increasing pay for doctors and train drivers by cutting benefits and hiking tax for everyone else


  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

    Taylor Swift has to deal with a huge amount of intrusive media interest and other shit, and handles it all with great magnanimity, only releasing her feelings in occasional acerbic song lyrics. If only more people in the world took her as their role model rather than Elon Musk or Donald Trump.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,710
    edited September 19
    British-educated businesswoman denies making Hezbollah explosive pagers which killed at least 12 people. Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono studied for a PhD in physics at UCL between 2002 and 2006. She then went on to study at the London School of Economics and the University of London for various postgraduate qualifications between 2009 and 2017.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hezbollah-bac-consulting-hungary-cristiana-barsony-arcidiacono-b2615410.html

    12 years in post-grad education, what was she doing all that time?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,520
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    FFS. How have they got into this mess before even reaching the autumn equinox?


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    “Why don’t you buy your own suits?” asked BBC Yorks. “The important thing in all of this is that we follow the rules”

    This is going to be his “thing” isn’t it? Take the fuel allowance from people but live in luxury yourself off freebies. I never would have guessed he’d fall into that trap.
    Newstatesman this weekend reckons Wes Streeting, in their interview, might have let slip that cuts to "working age benefits" are looming.

    That's gonna go down a storm whilst the new frocks are being ironed ready for the BAFTAs are whatever.

    So first he infuriated pensioners by cutting their WFA but could get away with that as they are mostly Tory. If he cuts working age benefits too then he loses swing voters who voted Labour in July to the Tories, Reform and LDs.


    To date - and it is v early yet - but one could well imagine that they are determined to do one term and then lose to Reform.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I’ve been pitching ideas about the “end of universities” to my editors at the Knappers Gazette. They refuse to consider any of them, despite taking lots of other ideas

    Intrigued, I’ve been asking them why they are so resistant. The main reason is because they think I’m wrong. Universities will be fine. On further investigation, their reason for thinking I’m wrong boils down to “we hope you’re wrong and we don’t want to think about a world where you’re right”

    Trouble is, I’m right. AI is a mortal threat to the entire higher education system. No one will take on £50k of debt to be educated for jobs that no longer exist, and also when AI can deliver the same education for a fraction of the price

    A small subset of rich kids will go to “uni” for the social skills they can learn, and for fun; most won’t, because they won’t want the debt
    All my university education taught me was how to cite the right papers, i.e. regurgitate the course material, into essay format, so I could quote what other people thought about things.

    My degrees look good on a CV and, if I'm feeling a bit vain, make me look vaguely intellectual. But it's mostly status signalling. And they were tuppence ha'penny in my day compared to what they cost now.

    In terms of real world value, there's very little. I certainly wouldn't get into 50k of debt for one.
    Yes quite

    This doesn’t please me because Britain is good at Higher Education and I think universities are intrinsically a good thing - for kids and for wider society

    I just don’t see how the business model works in the future. They are going to implode. A few prestigious ones will survive and maybe thrive, most of the average provincial ones will disappear

    A bit like what happened to newspapers, in fact
    We had it right when less than 10% went to University. Unfortunatly Major and Blair both saw increasing University numbers as a way of getting youth unemployment numbers down. They also failed to understand the principle of dilution. The more people who have a degree, the less intrinsicly valuable that qualification becomes.
    Is less than 10% is the right number?

    If you look at the really successful economies, places like Singapore, then they send a lot more people to University than that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990

    British-educated businesswoman denies making Hezbollah explosive pagers which killed at least 12 people. Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono studied for a PhD in physics at UCL between 2002 and 2006. She then went on to study at the London School of Economics and the University of London for various postgraduate qualifications between 2009 and 2017.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hezbollah-bac-consulting-hungary-cristiana-barsony-arcidiacono-b2615410.html

    12 years in post-grad education, what was she doing all that time?

    See: it turns out that University education is good for your career prospects.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,436

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

    Taylor Swift has to deal with a huge amount of intrusive media interest and other shit, and handles it all with great magnanimity, only releasing her feelings in occasional acerbic song lyrics. If only more people in the world took her as their role model rather than Elon Musk or Donald Trump.
    Problem is, Taylor Swift’s whole career is based on songs where she sings about how she made bad choices over people so her backing of Kamala isn’t ideal.
  • Leon said:

    Good morning and FPT

    I’ve had problems in recent travels with Santander and Halifax and Barclay all questioning and stopping Visa and Mastercard payments. It’s because they can’t believe someone would travel this much - so they think it’s fraudulent. This despite me telling them my job involves frequent travel. Maddening

    The one card that works every time? Often my last hope? Amex

    Sorry that I am quite late to this, but considering how much you do travel have you considered using one of the FinTech banks? Someone like Revolut who don’t care where you travel and don’t ream you in FX charges…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825
    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    Robinson is the makes-Trump-look-sane Republican candidate.
  • rcs1000 said:

    British-educated businesswoman denies making Hezbollah explosive pagers which killed at least 12 people. Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono studied for a PhD in physics at UCL between 2002 and 2006. She then went on to study at the London School of Economics and the University of London for various postgraduate qualifications between 2009 and 2017.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hezbollah-bac-consulting-hungary-cristiana-barsony-arcidiacono-b2615410.html

    12 years in post-grad education, what was she doing all that time?

    See: it turns out that University education is good for your career prospects.
    It also seems like it might be quite a good cover for other things.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,314

    British-educated businesswoman denies making Hezbollah explosive pagers which killed at least 12 people. Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono studied for a PhD in physics at UCL between 2002 and 2006. She then went on to study at the London School of Economics and the University of London for various postgraduate qualifications between 2009 and 2017.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hezbollah-bac-consulting-hungary-cristiana-barsony-arcidiacono-b2615410.html

    12 years in post-grad education, what was she doing all that time?

    Making batteries?

    Speaking of which, if there any lawsuits over this attack, will the assailants be charged with assault and battery? ;)

    (Incidentally, I hope she has some security allocated to her. Some nasty people will be wanting vengeance.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    FFS. How have they got into this mess before even reaching the autumn equinox?


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    “Why don’t you buy your own suits?” asked BBC Yorks. “The important thing in all of this is that we follow the rules”

    This is going to be his “thing” isn’t it? Take the fuel allowance from people but live in luxury yourself off freebies. I never would have guessed he’d fall into that trap.
    Newstatesman this weekend reckons Wes Streeting, in their interview, might have let slip that cuts to "working age benefits" are looming.

    That's gonna go down a storm whilst the new frocks are being ironed ready for the BAFTAs are whatever.

    So first he infuriated pensioners by cutting their WFA but could get away with that as they are mostly Tory. If he cuts working age benefits too then he loses swing voters who voted Labour in July to the Tories, Reform and LDs.


    To date - and it is v early yet - but one could well imagine that they are determined to do one term and then lose to Reform.

    Or more likely a Tory and Reform coalition if they can’t stay in power with the LDs
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Er, what? How much more of this is yet to emerge?


    “Labour given £4m from tax haven-based hedge fund with shares in oil and arms

    Quadrature’s donation is noteworthy not just for being Labour’s largest-ever, but for its timing ahead of election”

    https://x.com/markseddon1962/status/1836413324830867492?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Well if they had shares in oil then they were being bloody stupid donating to Labour. The regret will have been very rapid I suspect.
    Hedge funds will have shares in lots of things. Headlines like this just demonstrate financial ignorance.
    Disagree. There's hedge funds doing ESG sort of things. If this is not one of them and owns Shell and Smith & Wesson or whatever, Labour can't hide behind saying it's a hedge fund and this is just the sort of shit hedge funds do.
  • Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    #BREAKING: Source familiar w/ forthcoming CNN story says revelations about Robinson include him saying things in online chats about liking transgender porn, peeping inside women’s locker rooms while he studied at NC A&T and wanting to own slaves. #ncpol
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,520
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Well it’s more interesting than watching the Arsenal.

    Not worth watching since Thierry Henri left.
    SKS has accepted freebies to Taylor Swift concerts not once but
    twice.
    But not, I think it should be noted, Radiohead.
    Wasn't there an issue with coldplay tickets? There's so much sleaze so quickly that it is hard to keep up.

    As the judge said: "Who are or were Coldplay?"

    "Poor man's Radiohead your honour."
  • Good evening from Gatwick awaiting my flight home. 6 days away, knackered, and of course this is the first day this week that easyJet have managed to arse this flight up. If I get home before midnight I will be doing well.

    And what awaits me when I get home? I have ruined myself slightly with a week of increasingly drunken debauchery. So I need to reconnect with my diet…

    Poo
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,946
    edited September 19

    FFS. How have they got into this mess before even reaching the autumn equinox?


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    “Why don’t you buy your own suits?” asked BBC Yorks. “The important thing in all of this is that we follow the rules”

    I seem to recall around the time of the expenses scandal someone claiming for a trouser press.

    My view was that you could claim for a suit (a cheap one) if for some reason you could not afford one, but not the press - dressing professionally is a requirement* of Commons rules, having good creases was not.

    *wearing ties is not it seems.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I’ve been pitching ideas about the “end of universities” to my editors at the Knappers Gazette. They refuse to consider any of them, despite taking lots of other ideas

    Intrigued, I’ve been asking them why they are so resistant. The main reason is because they think I’m wrong. Universities will be fine. On further investigation, their reason for thinking I’m wrong boils down to “we hope you’re wrong and we don’t want to think about a world where you’re right”

    Trouble is, I’m right. AI is a mortal threat to the entire higher education system. No one will take on £50k of debt to be educated for jobs that no longer exist, and also when AI can deliver the same education for a fraction of the price

    A small subset of rich kids will go to “uni” for the social skills they can learn, and for fun; most won’t, because they won’t want the debt
    All my university education taught me was how to cite the right papers, i.e. regurgitate the course material, into essay format, so I could quote what other people thought about things.

    My degrees look good on a CV and, if I'm feeling a bit vain, make me look vaguely intellectual. But it's mostly status signalling. And they were tuppence ha'penny in my day compared to what they cost now.

    In terms of real world value, there's very little. I certainly wouldn't get into 50k of debt for one.
    Yes quite

    This doesn’t please me because Britain is good at Higher Education and I think universities are intrinsically a good thing - for kids and for wider society

    I just don’t see how the business model works in the future. They are going to implode. A few prestigious ones will survive and maybe thrive, most of the average provincial ones will disappear

    A bit like what happened to newspapers, in fact
    We had it right when less than 10% went to University. Unfortunatly Major and Blair both saw increasing University numbers as a way of getting youth unemployment numbers down. They also failed to understand the principle of dilution. The more people who have a degree, the less intrinsicly valuable that qualification becomes.
    Every other developed world country sends far more than 10% to university. Countries sending even more to universities than the UK include Canada, Japan, South Korea and… er… Russia. Countries at similar levels include the US, Israel, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland. Bit lower and you get Spain, Greece, Denmark, Austria,

    A lot lower, but still above 10%, is Germany, China, Czechia, Mexico, Italy.

    10% or below is sub-Saharan Africa.
    No idea if this is comparing like with like, but huge numbers of people would be best served by top quality (ie, this is as important as Oxford) skills and qualification based FE provided locally and given proper respect and regard by schools, politicians and media.
    I am not disputing that one could change the form of HE and FE. Someone (my apologies, I forget who) noted how the UK is exceptional in its high rate of university students not living at home. But this “in my day” nonsense is… well, nonsense.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Starmer is turning into a right whopper and yet he’s still better than the shower that came before
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Do we just have to get used to the idea that something about the mix of social media in place of news, and the complexity of the underlying issues, means mega swings at elections for a while?

    It really is easy to imagine Labour losing its majority in one go after this start.

    Plus some rather low grade politicians on all sides.

    For example -

    1) problem - MPs turning out to be shits. Answer (for me) a sane vetting process. If they run a company selling complex derivatives on the value of nerve gas, nuclear weapons and rental flats - at least give them a second level vetting

    2) problem - politicians taking dodgy looking donations. Answer (for me) - anything over £50 is reported immediately to a vetting committee. On pain of losing the whip.

    3) problem - foreign sec talking out of arse. Solution - vet everything through advisors.
    Lammy seems to be genuinely dim. Not sure how you fix that
    Dim politicians is meant to be solved by them being good performers (think most actors who think they are also activists) and having good civil servants and advisers supply them with the right words so we don't notice.

    So if he is dim, it's a bigger issue than one man.
    But our Civil Service is the best in the world! They tell us so, constantly. Publicly spirited, willing to forgo the riches of the private sector for a mere £150k a year (plus a pension worth the thick end of £2m), how can you possibly doubt their expertise? /s
    The median salary of civil servants is £33,980.
    Sure but that includes large numbers who actually do the work, not those swanning around Westminster.
    Fewer than 10% work in Westminster, generally in policy roles (or supporting them) which the relevant sectors of the economy would be horrified if we didn’t have.

    Civil service numbers should probably come down in time (though with all the new functions post Brexit, that’s not a given) but please let’s not get into the Mogg-ite “they are all lazy and do nothing” nonsense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,946
    Petty misbehaviour can weirdly hurt more than egregious misbehaviour.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,900
    edited September 19
    kinabalu said:

    AnneJGP said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Claude at the moment is the best LLM IMO. For all the hype over ChatGPT o1, I just found that it sits and "thinks" for ages and the result isn't actually much better. At best its stopping you manually saying, do this, then this, at worst because it is trying to take many steps itself, it goes off down the wrong path and you wait 30s+ for it to pump out nonsense.

    Yes. Apparently o1 is great at maths and coding but as I don’t care about maths or coding that whizzes past me

    For words, Claude is still best by a fair stretch. Also the context window on ChatGPT remains relatively tiny

    As it seems I am temporarily allowed to discuss AI - I’d note that I’ve seen people all over the world quietly using it, and many hyper aware of all developments. The revolution is happening but it’s sotto voce. A lot of people don’t want their employers to know they are using it

    For these and other reasons I wouldn’t bet against AI. It is coming and it is inevitable. Betting against it is like betting against electricity in 1895
    I have found the opposite, its shit at coding, its really infuriating. But I am not asking it to code flappy birds game or a web app. As for maths, I have asked it some things that aren't that complicated (I am not a mathematician, but I do lots of maths) and it has done very poorly.
    I yield to your experience in these matters

    Gemini is often overlooked. It has a massive context window and seems to be improving over time

    Frankly, they are all amazing and if you showed them to people in 2014 or 2004 they’d say Wow so that’s AGI

    It’s the boiling frog thing
    Oh don't get me wrong, I think if you have 100-120 IQ and do very repetitive white collar role and quite low down in the company hierarchy, I would be very concerned for my future. I actually think those that have lower IQ are far better insulated against this tech because they are much more likely to be in vocational jobs that robotics are nowhere near doing their work.

    But o1 at least I have found massively underwhelming for my use cases. Its like asking an undergraduate who if they don't know the answer doesn't say I don't know or I think the answer is, it gives you a 10 minute BS talk all about it.
    Are we allowed to talk about AI here again, then?

    In which case.

    Those of us "golgafrincham b ark" types whose main grift in life has been to shuffle papers and produce reports are doomed.

    I do a lot of strategy consultancy work for startups and I feed my meeting notes into Claude (as others have noted, the best of the current bunch) and it largely spits out what I would. Not as good, but probably 70-80% of the way there. So why pay me thousands for my time when you're on a tight budget and the chatbot gets you 70-80% of the way there?

    Well, I like to think the extra 20% is the difference between the startups I work with that succeed, and the guys who use chatbot answers and don't. But this is not quite 2 years into the AI revolution, and at the current pace, I will be outclassed within the next few years. If I'm lucky. The next few months, if I'm not.

    I consider myself fortunate to be financially secure. Because if I wasn't, I'm pretty sure I would be looking at the bread line in a few years, much as a coal miner in the 90s. A completely obsolescent skill set.
    I don't think its anywhere near close total replacing humans. Its the gets you 80% of the way there is the issue. Thus, I don't think all the jobs are going, rather you don't need as many people / the amount you can charge for the work is lesser.

    The social contract of 50% of people, go to uni, get a decent degree in something, get a white collar job, buy a house, have a family, is already very strained....
    When AI does all the work so no employees are needed, who buys all the stuff to keep the wheels turning?
    An excellent question. If the "technology revolution" turns out anywhere near the hype it's going to require enlightened activist government to prevent the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many.

    So no change there.
    Fair point. But I don't think the Labour Party in its current incarnation is the vehicle to pursue that goal. Bear in mind Starmer has shown his character in the acceptance of money and gifts - which is to say venal and tin-eared. The upcoming policies (esp house building) may prove to be good but unless they're accompanied by, say, a cap on immigration, it will will be pointless as demand outruns supply.

    The UK is currently a machine that inputs cheap labour from third-world countries, gives them minimum wage and educates their children to professional level, then exports those children to first-world countries like Australia and America. The business model is broken and results in continual immiseration of the poorest. I don't see Labour fixing this, or even understanding what the problem is.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Well it’s more interesting than watching the Arsenal.

    Not worth watching since Thierry Henri left.
    SKS has accepted freebies to Taylor Swift concerts not once but
    twice.
    But not, I think it should be noted, Radiohead.
    They have ticketed events?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990
    boulay said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

    Taylor Swift has to deal with a huge amount of intrusive media interest and other shit, and handles it all with great magnanimity, only releasing her feelings in occasional acerbic song lyrics. If only more people in the world took her as their role model rather than Elon Musk or Donald Trump.
    Problem is, Taylor Swift’s whole career is based on songs where she sings about how she made bad choices over people so her backing of Kamala isn’t ideal.
    Very good.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,710
    edited September 19
    kle4 said:

    Petty misbehaviour can weirdly hurt more than egregious misbehaviour.

    That is something that annoyed me about expenses scandal. The headline grabbing low hanging fruit (and sometimes things people didn't even claim for) was too often the focus, where as nowhere near as much focus on some setups that looked proper corrupt but needed some proper leg work.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    FFS. How have they got into this mess before even reaching the autumn equinox?


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    “Why don’t you buy your own suits?” asked BBC Yorks. “The important thing in all of this is that we follow the rules”

    This is going to be his “thing” isn’t it? Take the fuel allowance from people but live in luxury yourself off freebies. I never would have guessed he’d fall into that trap.
    Newstatesman this weekend reckons Wes Streeting, in their interview, might have let slip that cuts to "working age benefits" are looming.

    That's gonna go down a storm whilst the new frocks are being ironed ready for the BAFTAs are whatever.

    So first he infuriated pensioners by cutting their WFA but could get away with that as they are mostly Tory. If he cuts working age benefits too then he loses swing voters who voted Labour in July to the Tories, Reform and LDs.

    The party of Labour under Starmer has become the party of well paid public sector workers, increasing pay for doctors and train drivers by cutting benefits and hiking tax for everyone else


    If, if, if… I look forward to criticism of the Budget, rather than this endless criticism of random guesses as to what might be in the Budget.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited September 19

    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    Robinson is the makes-Trump-look-sane Republican candidate.
    Carolina Journal

    Robinson under pressure to withdraw from gubernatorial race

    orth Carolina Republicans are bracing Thursday morning as word spreads about a damning news story looming regarding Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

    Sources with direct knowledge have spoken with Carolina Journal on the condition of anonymity and said that Robinson is under pressure from staff and members of the Trump campaign to withdraw from the governor’s race due to the nature of the story, which they say involves activity on adult websites in 2000s.

    According to sources, Robinson has resisted withdrawing and privately denies the story.

    In an email to Carolina Journal shortly after this story posted, Michael Lonergan, communications director for the Mark Robinson for Governor campaign wrote, “Whomever your sources are here, it is complete fiction.”

    Thursday evening is the state deadline to withdraw from the race. The deadline to remove Robinson’s name from the ballot already has passed. There are just four weeks to go until early voting, and absentee ballots are due to go in the mail Friday.

    According to the sources, the campaign of Attorney General Josh Stein, Robinson’s opponent in the race for North Carolina’s Executive Mansion, leaked the story to CNN and local Raleigh news outlet, WRAL. It is expected to hit airwaves later on Thursday.

    Also according to the anonymous source, earlier this week leaders in the Trump campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Trump or vice presidential candidate JD Vance. He was slated to speak at the Vance appearance on Wednesday, but his office announced that Robinson had tested positive for COVID.

    https://www.carolinajournal.com/robinson-under-pressure-to-withdraw-from-gubernatorial-race/

    SSI - according to Wisdom of WWW, re the "Carolina Journal"

    Holding to the journal's motto on the cover of recent prints, "Ad Conservandam, Libertatem", the journal is a staunchly conservative and libertarian publication that promotes right-wing politics in their writings.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,946
    edited September 19

    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    #BREAKING: Source familiar w/ forthcoming CNN story says revelations about Robinson include him saying things in online chats about liking transgender porn, peeping inside women’s locker rooms while he studied at NC A&T and wanting to own slaves. #ncpol
    How is any of that more disqualifying that reports of previous things he has said?

    Will he go the 'it was a joke' route I wonder? I've definitely joked about supporting slavery and genocide, though only in very precise company that wouldn't sell the story to a newspaper (and now PB)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928

    Good evening from Gatwick awaiting my flight home. 6 days away, knackered, and of course this is the first day this week that easyJet have managed to arse this flight up. If I get home before midnight I will be doing well.

    And what awaits me when I get home? I have ruined myself slightly with a week of increasingly drunken debauchery. So I need to reconnect with my diet…

    Poo

    Have another drink. Your worries will float away.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990
    mercator said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Er, what? How much more of this is yet to emerge?


    “Labour given £4m from tax haven-based hedge fund with shares in oil and arms

    Quadrature’s donation is noteworthy not just for being Labour’s largest-ever, but for its timing ahead of election”

    https://x.com/markseddon1962/status/1836413324830867492?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Well if they had shares in oil then they were being bloody stupid donating to Labour. The regret will have been very rapid I suspect.
    Hedge funds will have shares in lots of things. Headlines like this just demonstrate financial ignorance.
    Disagree. There's hedge funds doing ESG sort of things. If this is not one of them and owns Shell and Smith & Wesson or whatever, Labour can't hide behind saying it's a hedge fund and this is just the sort of shit hedge funds do.
    Paul Marshall has given money to the LibDem, the Brexit campaign, etc. At various times, his funds will have bought and sold shares in gazillions of companies.

    From the name - Quadrature - I suspect they are a quantitive hedge fund; i.e. they will have a model which predicts which shares to own based on correlations and other technical analysis.

    So what if he gave money to Labour?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,066
    On AI, don't believe the hype.

    Sure, it'll mean fewer people are needed for some jobs. Some people will lose their jobs. But it's just a natural extension of what computers and technology has done for years - not a revolution.

    Other new jobs will be created that we've not even thought of yet.

    The cycle will continue.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,928
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    #BREAKING: Source familiar w/ forthcoming CNN story says revelations about Robinson include him saying things in online chats about liking transgender porn, peeping inside women’s locker rooms while he studied at NC A&T and wanting to own slaves. #ncpol
    How is any of that more disqualifying that reports of previous things he has said?

    Will he go the 'it was a joke' route I wonder? I've definitely joked about supporting slavery and genocide, though only in very precise company that wouldn't sell the story to a newspaper (and now PB)
    Surely not at the same time? If you support genocide there’s probably no one left to be slaves.
  • boulay said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

    Taylor Swift has to deal with a huge amount of intrusive media interest and other shit, and handles it all with great magnanimity, only releasing her feelings in occasional acerbic song lyrics. If only more people in the world took her as their role model rather than Elon Musk or Donald Trump.
    Problem is, Taylor Swift’s whole career is based on songs where she sings about how she made bad choices over people so her backing of Kamala isn’t ideal.
    That's one take. Admittedly a ludicrous take, especially given Taylor Swift had/has sense enough NOT to pick Donald Trump.

    But haters gotta hate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,946

    kle4 said:

    Petty misbehaviour can weirdly hurt more than egregious misbehaviour.

    That is something that annoyed me about expenses scandal. The headline grabbing low hanging fruit (and sometimes things people didn't even claim for) was too often the focus, where as nowhere near as much focus on some setups that looked proper corrupt but needed some proper leg work.
    In some cases a focus on petty corruption there was a good thing, as it exposed the pathetic culture that was endemic, that people would claim for everything they could. More than a focus on major wrong 'uns which might suggest the rest are squeaky clean.

    But you can't forget the big stuff too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,915
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Well it’s more interesting than watching the Arsenal.

    Not worth watching since Thierry Henri left.
    SKS has accepted freebies to Taylor Swift concerts not once but
    twice.
    But not, I think it should be noted, Radiohead.
    Radiohead can't even give tickets away...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    England ended up maybe 60-70 short...think about that you need nearly 400 in a 50 over game to win....

    Australia got a head of the game
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825
    boulay said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Swift is a little bit more telegenic.
    That sounds pretty crap for Taylor. Isn't she allowed a little down time without a camera on her all through the game?

    I guess not.

    Taylor Swift has to deal with a huge amount of intrusive media interest and other shit, and handles it all with great magnanimity, only releasing her feelings in occasional acerbic song lyrics. If only more people in the world took her as their role model rather than Elon Musk or Donald Trump.
    Problem is, Taylor Swift’s whole career is based on songs where she sings about how she made bad choices over people so her backing of Kamala isn’t ideal.
    Says someone who hasn’t examined Swift’s lyrical output!
  • rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Well it’s more interesting than watching the Arsenal.

    Not worth watching since Thierry Henri left.
    SKS has accepted freebies to Taylor Swift concerts not once but
    twice.
    But not, I think it should be noted, Radiohead.
    IF the PM will publically denouce pineapple-on-pizza, will go a LONG way to disapating the Keir Fear on here.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,825

    Good evening from Gatwick awaiting my flight home. 6 days away, knackered, and of course this is the first day this week that easyJet have managed to arse this flight up. If I get home before midnight I will be doing well.

    And what awaits me when I get home? I have ruined myself slightly with a week of increasingly drunken debauchery. So I need to reconnect with my diet…

    Poo

    A week of increasingly drunken debauchery? Yes, that is typical for the LibDem party conference.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990
    It is not impossible, surely, that path was lab -> wet market -> the world?

    And it is far from impossible, either, that the wet market was a necessary step in the evolution of the virus, providing an environment where an otherwise fairly unremarkable bat virus became dramatically more virulent.
  • Re: NC Gov race, one topic of interest in very near future, is what the laws of the great Tarheel State have to say about ability of a party to change it's candidate for governor in mid-election.

    For example, IF state GOP committee does just that, can votes for the guy who walks the plank, be awarded to his replacement?

    Perhaps TSE or another PBer knows a lawyer in Raleigh who knows the answer?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,990
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder if Sky will keep a focus on Starmer in his private box at Arsenal like the US TV does with Taylor Swift at NFL games?

    Well it’s more interesting than watching the Arsenal.

    Not worth watching since Thierry Henri left.
    SKS has accepted freebies to Taylor Swift concerts not once but
    twice.
    But not, I think it should be noted, Radiohead.
    Radiohead can't even give tickets away...
    Sure, sure.

    They're terrible commercial failures and nobody would ever pay to see them in concert.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,436

    Good evening from Gatwick awaiting my flight home. 6 days away, knackered, and of course this is the first day this week that easyJet have managed to arse this flight up. If I get home before midnight I will be doing well.

    And what awaits me when I get home? I have ruined myself slightly with a week of increasingly drunken debauchery. So I need to reconnect with my diet…

    Poo

    A week of increasingly drunken debauchery? Yes, that is typical for the LibDem party conference.
    Can you imagine all the toe injuries with all those drunken LDs on a dance floor in their sandals? At least the socks would absorb a bit of the blood.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some major drama is shaking out in NC's gubernatorial race. Sources tell me a CNN story is forthcoming. Robinson's two campaign events today in Vance and Warren counties have been cancelled. Robinson's closest advisers & Robinson himself aren't taking my calls for comment.
    https://x.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1836793713709727895


    Ballots go out tomorrow......

    #BREAKING: Source familiar w/ forthcoming CNN story says revelations about Robinson include him saying things in online chats about liking transgender porn, peeping inside women’s locker rooms while he studied at NC A&T and wanting to own slaves. #ncpol
    How is any of that more disqualifying that reports of previous things he has said?

    Will he go the 'it was a joke' route I wonder? I've definitely joked about supporting slavery and genocide, though only in very precise company that wouldn't sell the story to a newspaper (and now PB)
    Surely not at the same time? If you support genocide there’s probably no one left to be slaves.
    Research the phrase Vernichtung durch Arbeit. Not really all that funny.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,314
    rcs1000 said:

    It is not impossible, surely, that path was lab -> wet market -> the world?

    And it is far from impossible, either, that the wet market was a necessary step in the evolution of the virus, providing an environment where an otherwise fairly unremarkable bat virus became dramatically more virulent.
    We don't know, and possibly even can never know. It's a balance of probabilities, or Occam's razor.

    Only fools are certain about its origins.
  • Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,204

    Just heard SKS tried to blag some tickets for the Kaiser Chiefs but decided against it when Sue Grey said if you accept those I predict a riot

    Ha! 😂
  • Britain’s most senior civil servant is expected to formally resign next month amid tensions with Sue Gray, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/simon-case-sue-gray-civil-servant-resign-cabinet/

    that could be devastating for Starmer .
  • Angela Rayner enjoyed stunning views of Manhattan and the Empire State Building on new year’s eve from a $2.5 million flat lent by the Labour donor at the centre of the row over freebies, The Telegraph can reveal.

    The Deputy Prime Minister spent five nights in the luxury Manhattan apartment, with views over New York from the 56th floor of a skyscraper.

    The two-bedroom property – totalling 1,300 sq ft – was lent to Ms Rayner by Lord Alli, the Labour peer, from Dec 29 to Jan 2 last year.

    According to the parliamentary register of interests, Ms Rayner was given a flat as accommodation for five nights to enjoy a “personal holiday”, which she said was worth an estimated £1,250 overall.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/19/angela-rayner-new-year-luxury-manhattan-flat-lord-alli/

    We talked about hotel prices in North America, don't get much for £250 / night these days.
This discussion has been closed.