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Yes we Kem? – politicalbetting.com
Yes we Kem? – politicalbetting.com
"I grew up in a middle class family.. But I became working class when I was working in McDonalds"– Conservative party leadership candidate Kemi Badenoch pic.twitter.com/anQv1MJDmT
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I’ve had problems in recent travels with Santander and Halifax and Barclay all questioning and stopping Visa and Mastercard payments. It’s because they can’t believe someone would travel this much - so they think it’s fraudulent. This despite me telling them my job involves frequent travel. Maddening
The one card that works every time? Often my last hope? Amex
There was a really good NPR article on the changes, and it showed that - over the course of 3/4 electoral cycles - Arizona had gone from about 7 pecentage points fewer graduates than the national average to 3 above. Almost all the voting changes in the State can be explained by that, given how much Democrats outperform with college educated Americans.
By all appearances, B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company that was under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front, according to three intelligence officers briefed on the operation. They said at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers.
B.A.C. did take on ordinary clients, for which it produced a range of ordinary pagers. But the only client that really mattered was Hezbollah, and its pagers were far from ordinary. Produced separately, they contained batteries laced with the explosive PETN, according to the three intelligence officers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html
I called it in the last thread !!!!!
Yes we Kem
Including the comments.
Allegedly, they’ve managed to booby trap smart phones, music systems and TOASTERS
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6ezre8xr4o
I wonder who could have made them....
Although I expect Harris to win I am still worried about a couple of things - the first to do with Trump and the second with her.
Trump: As his prospects decline his advisors will be begging him to stop mugging up to his base (eg saying he won in 2020, demonising migrants, all the ludicrous lies about everything under the sun) and start really trying to appeal to moderate undecideds. If he can do that he’ll be back in the game. I don’t think he can but you never know.
Harris: She’s a woman. The first female president would be a huge deal but there’s a reason her campaign isn’t highlighting it. Misogyny (eg strong man equals bossy woman) is a powerful force in society. She has to overcome that. I’m hoping the drag is outweighed by factors the other way (people actively wanting a woman as president), or if it isn’t that the negative impact is already in the polls.
(On the Tory, I think Jenrick pretty much has it)
Not the lithium polymer cells used in smartphones can be moulded into all manner of shapes. With the involvement of the battery manufacturer, it would probably not be all that difficult to hide explosive in what is a sealed pouch.
And it would take a quite small amount of explosive to turn a car battery pack into quite a large incendiary bomb....
https://www.cityam.com/south-africa-discussed-as-venue-for-england-test-series-with-pakistan/
Some nonsense talked being talked about Armenia. eg that Armenia is an “accidental” ally of Russia, and this happened relatively recently
I’ve been to Armenia (also eastern Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan) and read a lot of history
The Armenian alliance with Russia is historical. It goes back to Tsarist timed when they were two ancient Christian nations, and mighty Russia was seen as a protector of small Christian nations against the evil Muslim Ottomans
With the Armenians that protection was sometimes vividly important, eg after the pogroms and the genocide
Armenia is still a natural ally of Russia even as it looks yearningly to the West, as well. It’s Putin that has bungled this relationship by appearing to side with Ankara or even Baku
We should help the Armenians. Because no one else will and they’re great people who’ve had a hard time from everyone
On becoming working class, Pulp's Common People comes to mind (which I remember being sung enthusiastically by some very middle class people at uni
Cleverly shows some class here, I think.
I have a paid for Lloyds Global Travel card that gives priority security and free lounge access. I don't use it abroad because they have a 3% surcharge on foreign currency transactions. So I use a Halifax Clarity card in such circumstances.
"It could be argued that Armenia only became a Russian ally through CTSO because Turkey sided with Azerbaijan, and no-one else wanted to help them."
I thought until this morning Kemi would probably come third, she might now even come fourth with almost all Stride’s MP backers going to Tugendhat and Cleverly and Jenrick already well ahead of her
ETA: a bit longer here: https://www.tiktok.com/@dailymailuk/video/7415905891926412576
I think it's a clumsy point badly made - that she got a bit of a window into the working class world - more than anything (although given she's supposed to be a good speaker, that is an issue)
Yes, Armenia had long and historic links with Russia and the USSR: as many countries in the region did. Are you arguing that lots of other countries wanted to help Armenia?
Former actor Jason Hoganson arrested shortly after being freed from 18-month sentence for assaulting ex-girlfriend
...after being freed from an 18-month sentence for assaulting his former girlfriend in the street....
A court heard he was arrested on September 11, the day after he was released, on suspicion of two counts of breaching a restraining order by contacting the same former partner and one of assaulting her.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/19/prisoner-freed-early-keir-starmer-back-in-jail-48-hours/
He looks like a lovely chap.
Unfortunately I suspect she’s a lightweight and that might never change. These remarks really don’t help in that regard
I travelled with someone last year who had business class while I was economy (as always) and he managed to
get me into one as his guest. Free food and drinks was nice I guess but it was rammed and we couldn't find a seat. I'd much rather had gone to Pret.
The longer clip is not as bad, but it's also not great.
How on earth would we refer to their relationship THEN?
I do my research. You CAN find lounges at the really big airports - JFK, LHR, CDG, Changi, UAE - which are genuinely great
The big lounge at Barajas, Madrid, is magnificent (or was when I last used it)
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We are experiencing a crisis of what French sociologist Émile Durkheim called “anomie,” or normlessness, arising from the dizzying pace of social, economic, political, and technological change in our times and the weakening of institutions that foster social cohesion."
https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/the-death-of-deliverism/
Chapeau, Mossad. Chapeau.
I did a mini version last time I was in T3: a heaving BA and cathedral-like desolation in Qantas.
It’s better to spend £100 at the most expensive bar/seafood joint in the airport - and have a relaxed time with GREAT food and wine, than to spend the extra £300 on Biz tickets and get free cheap cheddar and crackers and dodgy wine in a crammed lounge
And airports all around the world are getting much better at shortening queues. E-gates are becoming ubiquitous and everyone has realised how to stagger security queues so they are smooth
Mandelson recalls a dinner with her where Kemi ‘arrived late, sat down noisily, asked a none too bright question, then left early.’ So yes she is no nonsense but otherwise Mandy damning with faint praise
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/badenoch-the-tory-leadership-candidate-starmer-would-fear-most-suggests-mandelson/ar-BB1r04F3?ocid=tweet
Inside the ‘secret garden’: Candidate selection at the 2019 UK general election
Candidate selections are seen as the ‘secret garden’ of UK politics. Hundreds of parliamentary constituencies rarely change hands, meaning that the ‘real election’ is the incumbent party’s selection process. Yet scholarship into candidate selection in the United Kingdom remains limited. In this article, we build a novel dataset of known shortlisted candidates in winnable seats to offer the first cross-party analysis of who gets shortlisted, and what factors influence success among shortlisted candidates. We find that shortlisted female and ethnic minority candidates are still less likely to be selected as parliamentary candidates, while living locally is by far the most significant factor affecting selection success. However, the nature of the 2019 snap election allowed parties to use emergency powers to advantage party insiders in late selections. We further find that, contrary to media focus, party faction was not a significant factor in Conservative or Labour Party selections.
She's not my kind of Tory anyway, so if I was voting it would not be for her, but if I was wishing on behalf of Labour I'd probably want to avoid her in case she surprised on the upside.
I think Jenrick will win and will be a big mistake.
The grinding poverty she experienced on the dole was exactly the same period of time between finishing her degree at Oxford and starting her masters at Harvard.
Edit: Can't find the clip anywhere.
Good job I planted that small shrub last year to offset it all
Trump though leads in Georgia and in Arizona and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 1% with Nevada tied
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2024-swing-state-polls-trump-and-harris-locked-in-tight-presidential-race/
*He did a longish radio interview, forget with whom, shortly before the 2015 election where he was unusually relaxed (maybe internet radio and no one listening!) and sounded very normal - was waxing lyrical about Bastille and he clearly was a genuine fan. Completely different to the way he acted/sounded most of the time
Also these days in long haul, on a decent airline, the economy entertainment is easily as good as Biz about 5 years ago. Tons of movies and TV: as many as you need. On a personal screen
So then you’re paying for space (which you can secure by the method you state) and nicer food. But it isn’t £2000 nicer
Other Oneworld alliance lounges (Cathay, Qatar) will normally be miles better than BA
The lounges available to priority pass ("free" with some credit cards / banks) will probably be full in the UK & if they do let you in (you're bottom of the pile) will often be dire.
But yes, if its your own money, never £2k better.
You’ve "been to Armenia," have you? And read some books, too? Oh, @Leon, congratulations on your unparalleled expertise. Because, of course, a few visits and some light reading are all one needs to truly grasp the tangled web of centuries-old geopolitics. What next? Are you going to teach a masterclass in Advanced Diplomacy based on your trip to a souvenir shop in Yerevan?
Let’s address your absolutely precious idea that the Armenian-Russian relationship is somehow based on “two ancient Christian nations” standing hand-in-hand against the scary Muslim Ottomans. Oh, the drama! The sweeping romance! This isn’t a history lesson, @Leon, it’s a soap opera you’ve concocted. Are you honestly suggesting that Tsarist Russia, that paragon of altruism, was motivated by a deep, spiritual bond with Armenia? That they just couldn’t resist protecting their dear Christian brethren? Give me a break! Russia had about as much interest in Armenia’s well-being as a wolf does in sheep’s rights. They were after territory, power, and influence—simple as that.
Now, your assertion that Armenia is still a natural ally of Russia—oh, where do I even begin? Are we talking about the same Russia? The one that’s cosying up to Turkey and Azerbaijan like they’re at some geopolitical singles’ mixer, while Armenia is standing in the corner awkwardly holding a drink? It’s like calling a frog and a snake “natural allies” because they both live near the same pond. Russia’s only “natural ally” is its own self-interest, and guess what, Armenia isn’t at the top of that list, no matter how many ancient Christian alliances you want to dream up.
And Putin bungling the relationship? Oh, @Leon, you give him far too much credit. Putin hasn’t bungled anything—he’s doing exactly what Russia has always done: use Armenia as a pawn in its grand game of let’s stay relevant on the world stage. If Armenia had any illusions of being Russia’s special little friend, those have been crushed under the weight of Moscow’s deals with Ankara and Baku. The sad reality is, Armenia is useful to Russia until it isn’t. There’s no bungling; there’s only cold, calculated realpolitik.
As for your noble call to “help the Armenians because no one else will”—how touching. Truly, @Leon, you’re the hero Armenia never knew it needed. But here’s the thing: Armenia isn’t sitting around waiting for @Leon and the cavalry to come save them. They’ve been weathering the storms of regional politics for centuries without your divine intervention. Your patronizing “we should help them” attitude reeks of savior complex, and, frankly, the Armenians deserve better than your condescending hand-wringing.
I sort of share your view. I want Kemi to be good, and to win, but suspect she probably isn't. She strikes me as the best at articulating a position, no real evidence of adminstrative competence (but then that's all politicians in any party at the moment) and no real evidence of being good at politics (though I'm not convinced she's bad at it). TSE has been on a mission to tell us she's rubbish, but he hates all Tory politicians who are neither Dave Cameron or George Osborne, so I take that with a pinch of salt. Really I think she's the biggest unknown - she's the only one who could be brilliant, but she could also crash and burn the most spectacularly.
Still think she's a lower risk than Jenrick though.
Extra legroom seats are great value but be aware they’re not really confirmed until the doors shut, crew can and do sometimes try and move people around to and from them.
Premium economy is also good value on many flights, especially when booking close to travel date. More legroom and better service, but same food and no lounge.
Biz class is almost never worth the cost if paying yourself, I’ve had customers pay me a travel day the day before the work, because it was cheaper that a biz class overnight flight. You will get some sleep though, and the other perks such as taxis and lounges do help to offset the cost a little. I won’t fly overnight economy and expect to go straight into work the next morning - because no-one is going to be productive it that situation.
(As to the correct answer, Hunt is the only possible candidate on current evidence. Maybe they will get there in the end.)
I get the impression that she's reasonably happy with the easy clap lines that cheer her own side, but isn't bothered about taking it further.
If you want to watch the included entertainment, but keep your own headphones, you can get one of these:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Avantree-Relay-Headphones-Transmitter-Flight-Black/dp/B0C3QQ4X6F/
They could do with a break. It's not as though any western assistance has recently amounted to anything much more than hand-wringing.
Nor indeed is Leon Foreign Secretary.
(Thank heavens.)
(*Ok it's not going to be West End standard but it's better than an in-flight movie.)
I hope he’s not being serious because he’s asked me to propose him as a member of the Groucho Club, and if this is a sincere and foolish point I will have to withdraw said proposal
Now
Starmer - Gray and in just a few weeks disarray and turmoil in no 10 reigns
Apparently yougov has Starmer on 22/60 (minus 38) which in statistical terms has any PM become so unpopular in this time frame then the absurd Truss ?