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The latest Tory leadership betting – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,997

    Tommy The Tug and James Fairly Brightly seem the only sensible choices.

    Kemi: boring, cowardly, crap
    Patel: dim
    Jenrick: LOL

    What do you think of Stride?
    Who?
    STRIDE
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890

    Alastair Breaks Down "Unhinged" Project 2025
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU75265wXzA

    Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from Project 2025. 900 pages with no index. Not quite as off the wall as AC feared but anti-woke and anti-abortion.

    That'll go well, since much of it was created by scores of staffer from his own White House.

    There's the shorter book written by the head of the Heritage Foundation, if they don't want to rtead the full 900 pages. That has an introduction by JD Vance.

    I like that it was to be called Dawn’s Early Light: Burning Down Washington to Save Americ.
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/aug/07/project-2025-roberts-jd-vance-introduction
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    So who bet high on the speads when SL were six runs for three wickets this morning? 236 a respectable job after that horrific start to the day.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,443
    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,465

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    It's an extraordinary coincidence, but coincidence is all it is.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,465
    Sandpit said:

    So who bet high on the speads when SL were six runs for three wickets this morning? 236 a respectable job after that horrific start to the day.

    :smile:

    Modesty prevents me....etc etc
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,416
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Stride and Tugendhat - irrelevant

    Cleverly, Badenoch and Patel - hopelessly flawed in different ways but each has one strong point compared with the others

    Jenrick is just bad. Bad for the country in the unlikely event a Conservative Party led by him gets into power. But bad I think for the Conservatives too. He is naturally the favourite to win.

    What are the respective strong points of Cleverly, Badenoch and Patel?
    Cleverly - relatively normal person compared with the others. The safe choice when maybe they don't need a safe choice
    Badenoch - clever debater. Will challenge the Labour Party
    Patel - Willingness to face up to the problems with the party. What it actually needs right now.
    It is interesting that James Cleverly was the name mooted as a safe pair of hands to be caretaker leader if Rishi went early.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 727
    Taz said:

    Tommy The Tug and James Fairly Brightly seem the only sensible choices.

    Kemi: boring, cowardly, crap
    Patel: dim
    Jenrick: LOL

    What do you think of Stride?
    Who?
    STRIDE
    In Derek Raymond's dystopian novel State of Denmark, the fascist party that has taken over England is called 'The New Pace' with the campaign slogan "Forwards With The New Pace". "Forwards With the New Stride" would be an excellent slogan for the Tories
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,997
    Farage in Clacton rocking a Partridge vibe

    https://x.com/accidentalp/status/1826249372167979426?s=61
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    Ooh. Double silver winning Aussie Olympic cyclist switches to UK.

    https://road.cc/content/news/olympic-rack-cyclist-matr-richardson-could-face-two-year-ban-309979
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    edited August 21
    Sandpit said:

    Money well spent and it ends up with the best of humanity.

    Post Office ‘has paid £250m to law firms over Horizon IT scandal’

    Amount reportedly paid to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers almost equal to payouts for victims


    The Post Office has paid out a quarter of a billion pounds in legal fees in relation to the Horizon IT scandal – almost equal to the amount which has been given so far to victims, some of whom were imprisoned and made bankrupt, it has been reported.

    The state-owned body paid out £256.9m to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers between September 2014 and March 2024, the Lawyer magazine reported after submitting a freedom of information (FoI) request.

    The figure for legal fees is almost the same as the £261m of financial redress that has been paid out to victims of the scandal as of 31 July.

    UK government figures show that the £261m has been paid so far to 2,800 claimants across three separate schemes. These include £54m for people who have had their criminal convictions overturned, as well as £126m for post office operatives that had financial shortfalls in their branches, and £80m for claimants in the high court lawsuit brought by the campaigner Sir Alan Bates and 554 post office operatives against the Post Office.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/21/post-office-law-firms-payouts-horizon-it-scandal

    That is of course our money. Few private companies could afford that, and if they could, they would certainly expect better advice than the PO got from its legal consultants. All that expensive advice ever seemed to do was encourage the PO to get itself deeper and deeper in the mire.

    These were no ordinary law firms and barristers dishing out hopeless incorrect and unhelpful advice. One of the most distinguished and expensive barristers in the country, Lord Grabiner, advised the PO to seek the recusal of the Judge who had given the PO short shrift in the crucial Common Issues trial. Grabiner accused the judge of bias. It was a ridulous charge, and in due course it was summarily dismissed as '...misconceived...fatally flawed...untenable and absurd'. It had the consequence however of delaying justice in the Horizon case even longer, and of course Grabiner trousered a lot of money for not much work. (His rate at the time was, I believe, £3,000 per hour, which even TSE would find impressive....although I hasten to add that the chances of getting some sensible advice from Eagles would be considerably better.)
    The Lord Grabiner KC is a hero of mine, we’ve instructed him a few times but more importantly he was the barrister for the current owners of Liverpool FC and won the court case for them to get rid of the previous owners.

    PS - It is £3,000 per hour plus VAT and disbursements.
    No wonder the country is fecked.
    So when the Lord Grabiner came to visit some clients in Manchester from London on the train they paid for the travel time, so it cost them circa £18,000 in travel time alone.

    He was worth every penny.
    For £18k you could have hired him an helicopter.
    So how much better is £150k per week Grabiner than the next one?

    Do we need to go all Bart and have twice as many Barristers so the price comes down? :wink:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited August 21

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    It's an extraordinary coincidence, but coincidence is all it is.
    I haven’t been following it in any depth, using my spare time to read Nate Silver’s new book, instead, but just reading the headlines - my immediate thought was - these people are full-on risk people, living lives and making decisions most people don’t understand.

    Maybe the conspiracy theorists might benefit from closing their browser tabs and picking up a copy?

    (Not a plug by the way, I haven’t formed an opinion, so far, but the poker anecdotes/game theory stuff at the start - I’ve found rather dull)

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,380
    edited August 21

    Pulpstar said:

    Might be some trolling going on on this thread ;p

    I was accused of trolling with this thread.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/04/history-suggests-lawyer-starmer-was-always-going-to-win-this-election/
    • Kemi Badenoch: computer science graduate and postgrad, also passed the law exams
    • Robert Jenrick: history and politsci graduate, also passed the law exams
    • Tom Tugendhat: theology and Islamic studies, then became a soldier
    • James Cleverly: hospitality management studies, then became a soldier
    • Priti Patel: economics and politsci, then straight into the party
    • Mel Stride: PPE, then entrepreneur
    So
    • If the next one is a lawyer then it's 50/50 Badenoch or Jenrick
    • If a soldier, Tugendhat or Cleverly.
    • Otherwise Stride or Patel.
    (I am a six-handed economist :) )
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,093
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Money well spent and it ends up with the best of humanity.

    Post Office ‘has paid £250m to law firms over Horizon IT scandal’

    Amount reportedly paid to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers almost equal to payouts for victims


    The Post Office has paid out a quarter of a billion pounds in legal fees in relation to the Horizon IT scandal – almost equal to the amount which has been given so far to victims, some of whom were imprisoned and made bankrupt, it has been reported.

    The state-owned body paid out £256.9m to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers between September 2014 and March 2024, the Lawyer magazine reported after submitting a freedom of information (FoI) request.

    The figure for legal fees is almost the same as the £261m of financial redress that has been paid out to victims of the scandal as of 31 July.

    UK government figures show that the £261m has been paid so far to 2,800 claimants across three separate schemes. These include £54m for people who have had their criminal convictions overturned, as well as £126m for post office operatives that had financial shortfalls in their branches, and £80m for claimants in the high court lawsuit brought by the campaigner Sir Alan Bates and 554 post office operatives against the Post Office.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/21/post-office-law-firms-payouts-horizon-it-scandal

    That is of course our money. Few private companies could afford that, and if they could, they would certainly expect better advice than the PO got from its legal consultants. All that expensive advice ever seemed to do was encourage the PO to get itself deeper and deeper in the mire.

    These were no ordinary law firms and barristers dishing out hopeless incorrect and unhelpful advice. One of the most distinguished and expensive barristers in the country, Lord Grabiner, advised the PO to seek the recusal of the Judge who had given the PO short shrift in the crucial Common Issues trial. Grabiner accused the judge of bias. It was a ridulous charge, and in due course it was summarily dismissed as '...misconceived...fatally flawed...untenable and absurd'. It had the consequence however of delaying justice in the Horizon case even longer, and of course Grabiner trousered a lot of money for not much work. (His rate at the time was, I believe, £3,000 per hour, which even TSE would find impressive....although I hasten to add that the chances of getting some sensible advice from Eagles would be considerably better.)
    The Lord Grabiner KC is a hero of mine, we’ve instructed him a few times but more importantly he was the barrister for the current owners of Liverpool FC and won the court case for them to get rid of the previous owners.

    PS - It is £3,000 per hour plus VAT and disbursements.
    No wonder the country is fecked.
    So when the Lord Grabiner came to visit some clients in Manchester from London on the train they paid for the travel time, so it cost them circa £18,000 in travel time alone.

    He was worth every penny.
    For £18k you could have hired him an helicopter.
    So how much better is £150k per week Grabiner than the next one?

    Do we need to go all Bart and have twice as many Barristers so the price comes down? :wink:
    Barristers have long controlled the supply of Barristers.

    Funny that they are so expensive, eh?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Austerity Reeves confirms she is looking to implement an austerity budget.

    No one is opposing the building of social housing or actually affordable housing.

    But the Labour Party are totally in the pockets of property developers & private capital.
    Dressed up in the language of "economic growth."

    SKS fans feel ashamed feel very ashamed Corbyn killed austerity from 2015 even the Tories parent do it.

    SKS and austerity Reeves are reinventing it as a political choice
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    Is “iner” lawyerly code for “egregious amounts of cash” ?

    It would go a small way towards explaining “Grabiner”.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited August 21

    Austerity Reeves confirms she is looking to implement an austerity budget.

    No one is opposing the building of social housing or actually affordable housing.

    But the Labour Party are totally in the pockets of property developers & private capital.
    Dressed up in the language of "economic growth."

    SKS fans feel ashamed feel very ashamed Corbyn killed austerity from 2015 even the Tories parent do it.

    SKS and austerity Reeves are reinventing it as a political choice

    I think you’d rather have the tories back, no?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Pulpstar said:

    Money well spent and it ends up with the best of humanity.

    Post Office ‘has paid £250m to law firms over Horizon IT scandal’

    Amount reportedly paid to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers almost equal to payouts for victims


    The Post Office has paid out a quarter of a billion pounds in legal fees in relation to the Horizon IT scandal – almost equal to the amount which has been given so far to victims, some of whom were imprisoned and made bankrupt, it has been reported.

    The state-owned body paid out £256.9m to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers between September 2014 and March 2024, the Lawyer magazine reported after submitting a freedom of information (FoI) request.

    The figure for legal fees is almost the same as the £261m of financial redress that has been paid out to victims of the scandal as of 31 July.

    UK government figures show that the £261m has been paid so far to 2,800 claimants across three separate schemes. These include £54m for people who have had their criminal convictions overturned, as well as £126m for post office operatives that had financial shortfalls in their branches, and £80m for claimants in the high court lawsuit brought by the campaigner Sir Alan Bates and 554 post office operatives against the Post Office.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/21/post-office-law-firms-payouts-horizon-it-scandal

    That is of course our money. Few private companies could afford that, and if they could, they would certainly expect better advice than the PO got from its legal consultants. All that expensive advice ever seemed to do was encourage the PO to get itself deeper and deeper in the mire.

    These were no ordinary law firms and barristers dishing out hopeless incorrect and unhelpful advice. One of the most distinguished and expensive barristers in the country, Lord Grabiner, advised the PO to seek the recusal of the Judge who had given the PO short shrift in the crucial Common Issues trial. Grabiner accused the judge of bias. It was a ridulous charge, and in due course it was summarily dismissed as '...misconceived...fatally flawed...untenable and absurd'. It had the consequence however of delaying justice in the Horizon case even longer, and of course Grabiner trousered a lot of money for not much work. (His rate at the time was, I believe, £3,000 per hour, which even TSE would find impressive....although I hasten to add that the chances of getting some sensible advice from Eagles would be considerably better.)
    The Lord Grabiner KC is a hero of mine, we’ve instructed him a few times but more importantly he was the barrister for the current owners of Liverpool FC and won the court case for them to get rid of the previous owners.

    PS - It is £3,000 per hour plus VAT and disbursements.
    Common sense would have told you that the recusal application had no chance, yet he virtually instructed the PO to go ahead with it. It turns out that he didn't even read the Common Issues (Horizon) judgement, but relied instead on comments from another distinguished barrister, Lord Neuberger, who was equally myopic on this subject.

    These are obviously not stupid men, so what were they up to?
    Trousering cash.
    Their reputations must be regarded as seriously tarnished by their plainly incorrect advice to the PO. I take it they are not short of money. So why do it?

    Politics?
    Can HMG sue these great legal eagles for malpractice re: PO Horizon?

    At least delaaaaaaaay any payment until the turn of the next century!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    Trump still watching the Monday night bits of the convention.

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1826283680341586072

    I wonder how soon he’ll get round to last night’s speeches ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Austerity Reeves confirms she is looking to implement an austerity budget.

    No one is opposing the building of social housing or actually affordable housing.

    But the Labour Party are totally in the pockets of property developers & private capital.
    Dressed up in the language of "economic growth."

    SKS fans feel ashamed feel very ashamed Corbyn killed austerity from 2015 even the Tories parent do it.

    SKS and austerity Reeves are reinventing it as a political choice

    Dare not rather than parent!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these numbers trying to tell us that Trump might drop out?

    Trump 2.04
    Harris 2.1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

    No, how do you work that out ?

    Isn't it more to do with RFK's musings that he might endorse Trump ?
    Because Harris is less likely to drop out than Trump, and it's unusual to be able to make money betting on both candidates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,870
    I suspect Jenrick will top the MPs ballot, the question is whether Badenoch, Tugendhat or Cleverly come second
  • Jannik Sinner's lawyer, Singer, sounds like he could be a real old school suing machine
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Austerity Reeves confirms she is looking to implement an austerity budget.

    No one is opposing the building of social housing or actually affordable housing.

    But the Labour Party are totally in the pockets of property developers & private capital.
    Dressed up in the language of "economic growth."

    SKS fans feel ashamed feel very ashamed Corbyn killed austerity from 2015 even the Tories parent do it.

    SKS and austerity Reeves are reinventing it as a political choice

    I think you’d rather have the tories back, no?
    There is no difference as I have been telling you for years.

    If anything austerity Reeves may cut deeper than Hunt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,870
    FF43 said:

    Stride and Tugendhat - irrelevant

    Cleverly, Badenoch and Patel - hopelessly flawed in different ways but each has one strong point compared with the others

    Jenrick is just bad. Bad for the country in the unlikely event a Conservative Party led by him gets into power. But bad I think for the Conservatives too. He is naturally the favourite to win.

    Jenrick has a better net approval rating from voters than Patel and Badenoch, about the same as Cleverly and Stride just not as high as Tugendhat has
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Money well spent and it ends up with the best of humanity.

    Post Office ‘has paid £250m to law firms over Horizon IT scandal’

    Amount reportedly paid to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers almost equal to payouts for victims


    The Post Office has paid out a quarter of a billion pounds in legal fees in relation to the Horizon IT scandal – almost equal to the amount which has been given so far to victims, some of whom were imprisoned and made bankrupt, it has been reported.

    The state-owned body paid out £256.9m to 15 law firms and two barristers chambers between September 2014 and March 2024, the Lawyer magazine reported after submitting a freedom of information (FoI) request.

    The figure for legal fees is almost the same as the £261m of financial redress that has been paid out to victims of the scandal as of 31 July.

    UK government figures show that the £261m has been paid so far to 2,800 claimants across three separate schemes. These include £54m for people who have had their criminal convictions overturned, as well as £126m for post office operatives that had financial shortfalls in their branches, and £80m for claimants in the high court lawsuit brought by the campaigner Sir Alan Bates and 554 post office operatives against the Post Office.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/21/post-office-law-firms-payouts-horizon-it-scandal

    That is of course our money. Few private companies could afford that, and if they could, they would certainly expect better advice than the PO got from its legal consultants. All that expensive advice ever seemed to do was encourage the PO to get itself deeper and deeper in the mire.

    These were no ordinary law firms and barristers dishing out hopeless incorrect and unhelpful advice. One of the most distinguished and expensive barristers in the country, Lord Grabiner, advised the PO to seek the recusal of the Judge who had given the PO short shrift in the crucial Common Issues trial. Grabiner accused the judge of bias. It was a ridulous charge, and in due course it was summarily dismissed as '...misconceived...fatally flawed...untenable and absurd'. It had the consequence however of delaying justice in the Horizon case even longer, and of course Grabiner trousered a lot of money for not much work. (His rate at the time was, I believe, £3,000 per hour, which even TSE would find impressive....although I hasten to add that the chances of getting some sensible advice from Eagles would be considerably better.)
    The Lord Grabiner KC is a hero of mine, we’ve instructed him a few times but more importantly he was the barrister for the current owners of Liverpool FC and won the court case for them to get rid of the previous owners.

    PS - It is £3,000 per hour plus VAT and disbursements.
    No wonder the country is fecked.
    So when the Lord Grabiner came to visit some clients in Manchester from London on the train they paid for the travel time, so it cost them circa £18,000 in travel time alone.

    He was worth every penny.
    You seem so proud of them. I bet you even call him "Lord".
    No, I called him your Lordship.
    Would be apt IF in your quaint accent, it came out as "yer Lardship".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Trump-Kennedy?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    edited August 21
    Creative.

    Philip Hoban, of Northcote Crescent in Leeds, was then said to have imitated the manner in which Muslim people pray, in "order to mock their religion", Judge Kearl added.

    The court was told Hoban had been making slurs referencing Allah.

    He denied this in a police interview, instead saying he was chanting about a man called "Alan".


    (The phrase shouted by the crowd was "who the f*ck is Allah?")
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rwzr4egp0o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPepCVepCg
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808

    Tommy The Tug and James Fairly Brightly seem the only sensible choices.

    Kemi: boring, cowardly, crap
    Patel: dim
    Jenrick: LOL

    I am not sure Patel is dim. Her way of speaking, not so much her accent but where she breathes in her sentences, elecution stuff, undermines her. If she mastered public speaking, she'd be listened to way more.

    She didn't achieve much as Home Sec, but I can't remember a single one in my politically-aware lifetime who has.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,945
    Andy_JS said:

    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no

    Because 60,000 XL Bullies have been registered while the government thought there were only 10,000.

    I'd guess there are up to 100,000 in total; I don't get the sense Bully owners are big on bureaucracy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,997
    MattW said:

    Creative.

    Philip Hoban, of Northcote Crescent in Leeds, was then said to have imitated the manner in which Muslim people pray, in "order to mock their religion", Judge Kearl added.

    The court was told Hoban had been making slurs referencing Allah.

    He denied this in a police interview, instead saying he was chanting about a man called "Alan".


    (The phrase shouted by the crowd was "who the f*ck is Allah?")
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rwzr4egp0o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPepCVepCg

    Ah yes,,that well known phrase, Who the F*ck is Alan.

    I can almost admire the cojones of someone claiming that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    Taz said:

    Farage in Clacton rocking a Partridge vibe

    https://x.com/accidentalp/status/1826249372167979426?s=61

    I thought he never went to Clacton. Must be AI.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    MattW said:

    Creative.

    Philip Hoban, of Northcote Crescent in Leeds, was then said to have imitated the manner in which Muslim people pray, in "order to mock their religion", Judge Kearl added.

    The court was told Hoban had been making slurs referencing Allah.

    He denied this in a police interview, instead saying he was chanting about a man called "Alan".


    (The phrase shouted by the crowd was "who the f*ck is Allah?")
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rwzr4egp0o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPepCVepCg

    I assume he did other stuff, but is mocking religion not permitted?

    Someone had better tell the Monty Python crew.
    It's all about context. Yes, mocking religion is permitted, incitement to racial hatred is not. The courts decide where the line is. IMHO if he had just been imitating the way Muslim people pray then he would not be in this position. However he wasn't and this is evidence for the prosecution.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,220
    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,380

    Taz said:

    Farage in Clacton rocking a Partridge vibe

    https://x.com/accidentalp/status/1826249372167979426?s=61

    I thought he never went to Clacton. Must be AI.
    I'm sure he visits it occasionally.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    edited August 21

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    Cer

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    Would indeed take a powerful conspiracy to cause the natural disaster that apparently sunk that super-yacht.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    MattW said:

    Creative.

    Philip Hoban, of Northcote Crescent in Leeds, was then said to have imitated the manner in which Muslim people pray, in "order to mock their religion", Judge Kearl added.

    The court was told Hoban had been making slurs referencing Allah.

    He denied this in a police interview, instead saying he was chanting about a man called "Alan".


    (The phrase shouted by the crowd was "who the f*ck is Allah?")
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rwzr4egp0o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPepCVepCg

    He didn’t even think to say he was chanting about a girl called Alice?

    Plenty of prior art for that one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935
    Nigelb said:

    Trump still watching the Monday night bits of the convention.

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1826283680341586072

    I wonder how soon he’ll get round to last night’s speeches ?

    Better not watch it before bed time.

    Although, he tweets through the small hours so his sleep patterns aren't great.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Nice of TSE to get an AV reference into the thread header 😂
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,721
    DougSeal said:

    MattW said:

    Creative.

    Philip Hoban, of Northcote Crescent in Leeds, was then said to have imitated the manner in which Muslim people pray, in "order to mock their religion", Judge Kearl added.

    The court was told Hoban had been making slurs referencing Allah.

    He denied this in a police interview, instead saying he was chanting about a man called "Alan".


    (The phrase shouted by the crowd was "who the f*ck is Allah?")
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rwzr4egp0o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPepCVepCg

    I assume he did other stuff, but is mocking religion not permitted?

    Someone had better tell the Monty Python crew.
    It's all about context. Yes, mocking religion is permitted, incitement to racial hatred is not. The courts decide where the line is. IMHO if he had just been imitating the way Muslim people pray then he would not be in this position. However he wasn't and this is evidence for the prosecution.
    I just didn't like the reporting in that it was implied the mockery itself was a problem, as opposed to whatever his behaviour was as a whole.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,380
    The proper trailer for Magalopolis is out now. The film is out September 27, 2024 in the States.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgbjQIbuI_s
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986

    stodge said:

    https://x.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1826267394421174769

    Earlier this month, the far right set fire to hotels housing asylum seekers.

    Today, the government announced a "major surge" in deportations and promised to re-open detention centres.

    The government could have stood up to the far right. Instead, it pandered to them.

    SKS racist Government may as well give their next presser next to some of the right wingers "Pakkis go home" placards instead of the usual Union flags.

    Immigration minister Seema Malhotra says the govt wants to deport the highest number of people since 2018.

    SKS fans you need to own what you voted for
    I didn't vote Labour even here in the fortress of East Ham, yet I'm still curious.

    Your longstanding antipathy to Starmer notwithstanding, what would your immigration policy be? Open door? Skills based? Should those who are here illegally be allowed to stay ? What shoulkd we do whose cases for asylum are pending? It's easy to be critical but I'm much more interested in hearing what alternative policy you would support.
    My policy would be we need more legal routes globally for those fleeing terror/ war. We should take our fair share of those

    Every Palestinian for example should be welcome like the Ukranian ones were even though SKS would never allow that because they are brown and his record of "Israel has the right" makes him complicit in their Genocide.

    Beyond that if we need immigrant Labour in certain sectors such as care we need to let sufficient people in for those purposes. So sort of skills based but without the stigma. Not open door but we should also welcome students who are great for our economy and the survival of large swathes of Universities.
    Thank you for that response.

    I have no issue with a lot of that - my view on here a couple of evenings ago was immigration was three questions - illegal immigration ("the boats"), legal immigration and cultural assimilation.

    The former is symbolic - the numbers aren't huge but the psychological impact of video of dinghies arriving and young fit men (seemingly) jumping out and disappearing into the crowd is obvious (and worse for an island people).

    Legal immigration is something the Government could change and tighten up if it chose. The current legislation was the post-Brexit response from the "Global Britain" brigade.

    Finally, the tricky one - the degree to which immigrants integrate into British society. I've argued there's a discrete British identity evolving which is different from the indigenous identities - the Anglo-Indian identity being one. More recent arrivals will evolve their own identity - there'll be an Anglo-Romanian identity in time. It's not happening quickly or conclusively enough for some.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    In WA State 2024 "Top Two" (regardless of party) final certified results for Commissioner of Public Lands
    source WA Secretary of State

    Allen Lebovitz (Prefers Democratic Party)
    194,114 10.2%

    Jaime Herrera Beutler (Prefers Republican Party)
    419,297 22.03% > advances to general election ballot

    Dave Upthegrove (Prefers Democratic Party)
    396,300 20.82% > MAY advance pending manatory hand recount

    Sue Kuehl Pederson (Prefers Republican Party)
    396,249 20.82% > ditto

    Patrick DePoe (Prefers Democratic Party)
    267,924 14.08%

    Jeralee Anderson (Prefers Democratic Party)
    84,351 4.43%

    Kevin Van De Wege (Prefers Democratic Party)
    143,170 7.52%

    Write ins
    1,668 0.09%

    Total Votes 1,903,073

    SSI - as you can see, the margin separating 2nd from 3rd place is 51 votes out of 1.9 million cast statewide.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175

    Trump-Kennedy?

    That’s about as likely as the nominate Michelle rumours.
    And you can at least see why they came about.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,721

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Cloud seeding, obviously.

    [Though as per previous thread, my money is on a downburst rather than a tornado]
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    So he's not a billionaire?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,997

    Taz said:

    Farage in Clacton rocking a Partridge vibe

    https://x.com/accidentalp/status/1826249372167979426?s=61

    I thought he never went to Clacton. Must be AI.
    I’m sure all the centrist Dads based nowhere near Clacton obsessing about his appearances there will be gleefully reporting this.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,416
    edited August 21
    Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XcTJiTKcRw

    Livestream just started.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,870
    tlg86 said:

    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.

    Except Trump has far higher negatives than Major 1992 did
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    O/T

    Just stumbled across the most politically incorrect pop song of all time.

    John Farnham — Sadie (The Cleaning Lady).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeRmpvCjEw
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XcTJiTKcRw

    Livestream just started.

    He said Pennsylvania, has he got it wrong again?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
    You really believe that some evil genius is "more probable" than a natural phenomenon known to occur naturally?

    Hope you do NOT apply same "logic" to your political betting!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,639
    tlg86 said:

    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.

    But what did the 'Trump as Messiah' RNC look like?
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Stride and Tugendhat - irrelevant

    Cleverly, Badenoch and Patel - hopelessly flawed in different ways but each has one strong point compared with the others

    Jenrick is just bad. Bad for the country in the unlikely event a Conservative Party led by him gets into power. But bad I think for the Conservatives too. He is naturally the favourite to win.

    What are the respective strong points of Cleverly, Badenoch and Patel?
    Cleverly - relatively normal person compared with the others. The safe choice when maybe they don't need a safe choice
    Badenoch - clever debater. Will challenge the Labour Party
    Patel - Willingness to face up to the problems with the party. What it actually needs right now.
    Badenoch will rally the troops, but when the country is looking for opposition on the economy, education and NHS, will she get side-tracked on cultural stuff (which is super important, but not something that scores at the top of concerns for many voters)?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    MattW said:

    Creative.

    Philip Hoban, of Northcote Crescent in Leeds, was then said to have imitated the manner in which Muslim people pray, in "order to mock their religion", Judge Kearl added.

    The court was told Hoban had been making slurs referencing Allah.

    He denied this in a police interview, instead saying he was chanting about a man called "Alan".


    (The phrase shouted by the crowd was "who the f*ck is Allah?")
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rwzr4egp0o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPepCVepCg

    I assume he did other stuff and as usual the headline is missing something, but is mocking religion not permitted?

    Someone had better tell the Monty Python crew [although admittedly they didn't do their stuff outside Westminster Abbey].
    Yes, while that all sounds unpleasant behaviour, none of it sounds criminal.
    And religion is bloody stupid and ought to be mocked. The more sincerely it is believed in, the greater the importance of freedom to mock it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    So he's not a billionaire?
    Trump? Sincerely doubt it, based on his criminal trial.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,720

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    So he's not a billionaire?
    Trump? Sincerely doubt it, based on his criminal trial.
    He owes I think $584 million in fines alone? Not counting interest or legal fees.

    Most of his other money is in Truth Social, which is sinking before he can realise his stock.
  • stodge said:

    https://x.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1826267394421174769

    Earlier this month, the far right set fire to hotels housing asylum seekers.

    Today, the government announced a "major surge" in deportations and promised to re-open detention centres.

    The government could have stood up to the far right. Instead, it pandered to them.

    SKS racist Government may as well give their next presser next to some of the right wingers "Pakkis go home" placards instead of the usual Union flags.

    Immigration minister Seema Malhotra says the govt wants to deport the highest number of people since 2018.

    SKS fans you need to own what you voted for
    I didn't vote Labour even here in the fortress of East Ham, yet I'm still curious.

    Your longstanding antipathy to Starmer notwithstanding, what would your immigration policy be? Open door? Skills based? Should those who are here illegally be allowed to stay ? What shoulkd we do whose cases for asylum are pending? It's easy to be critical but I'm much more interested in hearing what alternative policy you would support.
    My policy would be we need more legal routes globally for those fleeing terror/ war. We should take our fair share of those

    Every Palestinian for example should be welcome like the Ukranian ones were even though SKS would never allow that because they are brown and his record of "Israel has the right" makes him complicit in their Genocide.

    Beyond that if we need immigrant Labour in certain sectors such as care we need to let sufficient people in for those purposes. So sort of skills based but without the stigma. Not open door but we should also welcome students who are great for our economy and the survival of large swathes of Universities.
    Palestinians arent really welcome anywhere. Everywhere they have been given refuge they've acted to undermine those nations. There's a reason why Egypt hasnt let them across the border they share in any large numbers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,416
    edited August 21
    DavidL said:

    Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XcTJiTKcRw

    Livestream just started.

    He said Pennsylvania, has he got it wrong again?
    No I posted the wrong link!! :(

    Should be this one: running late btw. Start time put back.
    LIVE: Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuOV7XXK2mw
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.

    Except Trump has far higher negatives than Major 1992 did
    And the convention looks nothing like Sheffield 1992.
    (Apart from anything else, it’s massively more professional in terms of media values.)

    I get that it might look hubristic to our eyes, but I really don’t think that’s how it comes across in the US.
    No doubt @SeaShantyIrish2 will weigh in on that.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    Call me petit bourgeois if you will but to me a Boeing 757 says rich. It may be on a payment plan but lenders are usually not shy about repossession if payment is not kept up.
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just stumbled across the most politically incorrect pop song of all time.

    John Farnham — Sadie (The Cleaning Lady).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeRmpvCjEw

    Fun song.

    Saw that live when I was about 11, it was the first concert I ever went to with a friend rather than family (we got the tickets via a charity, we collected with tins for the charity before and after the show and so missed the first and last songs, but got to see the rest of the concert).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,416

    DavidL said:

    Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XcTJiTKcRw

    Livestream just started.

    He said Pennsylvania, has he got it wrong again?
    No I posted the wrong link!! :(

    Should be this one: running late btw. Start time put back.
    LIVE: Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuOV7XXK2mw
    Livestreaming now. Trump is behind presumably bulletproof glass.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuOV7XXK2mw
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    mercator said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    Call me petit bourgeois if you will but to me a Boeing 757 says rich. It may be on a payment plan but lenders are usually not shy about repossession if payment is not kept up.
    Don’t laugh, but old 757’s are surprisingly cheap to buy, you can probably get one for £20-30m range depending on hours and condition. Costs about £10,000 an hour to fly it though, and the servicing bills will be horrendous. Absolutely no-one in the airplane servicing industry gives a penny of credit to any private operator.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Sandpit said:

    mercator said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    Call me petit bourgeois if you will but to me a Boeing 757 says rich. It may be on a payment plan but lenders are usually not shy about repossession if payment is not kept up.
    Don’t laugh, but old 757’s are surprisingly cheap to buy, you can probably get one for £20-30m range depending on hours and condition. Costs about £10,000 an hour to fly it though, and the servicing bills will be horrendous. Absolutely no-one in the airplane servicing industry gives a penny of credit to any private operator.
    Like yachts and horses it's the running costs not the capital outlay that kills you.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997

    DavidL said:

    Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XcTJiTKcRw

    Livestream just started.

    He said Pennsylvania, has he got it wrong again?
    No I posted the wrong link!! :(

    Should be this one: running late btw. Start time put back.
    LIVE: Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuOV7XXK2mw
    Livestreaming now. Trump is behind presumably bulletproof glass.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuOV7XXK2mw
    Yes, new USSS protocol for outside events that the politician stands behind a screen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will give a live address on Friday about “his path forward,” a spokeswoman for his independent presidential campaign said on Wednesday.

    NY Times blog
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XcTJiTKcRw

    Livestream just started.

    He said Pennsylvania, has he got it wrong again?
    No I posted the wrong link!! :(

    Should be this one: running late btw. Start time put back.
    LIVE: Donald Trump hosts MAGA rally in North Carolina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuOV7XXK2mw
    Livestreaming now. Trump is behind presumably bulletproof glass.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuOV7XXK2mw
    Yes, new USSS protocol for outside events that the politician stands behind a screen.
    He looks old and tired.

    Vance is about to speak to a massive crowd of sixty people apparently.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    mercator said:

    Sandpit said:

    mercator said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    Call me petit bourgeois if you will but to me a Boeing 757 says rich. It may be on a payment plan but lenders are usually not shy about repossession if payment is not kept up.
    Don’t laugh, but old 757’s are surprisingly cheap to buy, you can probably get one for £20-30m range depending on hours and condition. Costs about £10,000 an hour to fly it though, and the servicing bills will be horrendous. Absolutely no-one in the airplane servicing industry gives a penny of credit to any private operator.
    Like yachts and horses it's the running costs not the capital outlay that kills you.
    Yes, total money pit, will have at least a couple of million a year in fixed costs before it even goes anywhere.

    As the old saying goes, if it flies, floats, or f***s, you’re always better off renting it by the hour.

    As the other old saying goes, there’s two happy days in plane/boat ownership: the day you buy it, and the day you sell it.

    They’ve rented a 737 for Vance and his entourage as well during the campaign, and I suspect Walz will also get a plane at some point. Harris, as sitting VP, gets Air Force Two, another 757 but operated by the military.

    Interestingly, both Trump’s and Vance’s planes have had problems in the past couple of weeks. Trump’s had a hydraulic leak requiring a diversion, and Vance’s had a door that didn’t seal properly.
  • @Pagan2

    Take your girlfriend out and get two halves of Dickins cider
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,720

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will give a live address on Friday about “his path forward,” a spokeswoman for his independent presidential campaign said on Wednesday.

    NY Times blog

    Does it by any chance lead up Trump's arse?

    (If he wanted to help Trump, he would probably be better off endorsing Harris. That would worry swing voters.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,672
    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no

    Because 60,000 XL Bullies have been registered while the government thought there were only 10,000.

    I'd guess there are up to 100,000 in total; I don't get the sense Bully owners are big on bureaucracy.
    Put them down
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,720

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no

    Because 60,000 XL Bullies have been registered while the government thought there were only 10,000.

    I'd guess there are up to 100,000 in total; I don't get the sense Bully owners are big on bureaucracy.
    Put them down
    The dog seems to have made a start on that.

    Oh, sorry, you meant the dogs?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,672
    Sandpit said:

    mercator said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    Call me petit bourgeois if you will but to me a Boeing 757 says rich. It may be on a payment plan but lenders are usually not shy about repossession if payment is not kept up.
    Don’t laugh, but old 757’s are surprisingly cheap to buy, you can probably get one for £20-30m range depending on hours and condition. Costs about £10,000 an hour to fly it though, and the servicing bills will be horrendous. Absolutely no-one in the airplane servicing industry gives a penny of credit to any private operator.
    What would you do with a 757 if you bought it, though?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,672
    tlg86 said:

    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.

    Well, alright!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,443

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    It's an extraordinary coincidence, but coincidence is all it is.
    I know that, of course.

    But you’re no fun.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,443
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Creative.

    Philip Hoban, of Northcote Crescent in Leeds, was then said to have imitated the manner in which Muslim people pray, in "order to mock their religion", Judge Kearl added.

    The court was told Hoban had been making slurs referencing Allah.

    He denied this in a police interview, instead saying he was chanting about a man called "Alan".


    (The phrase shouted by the crowd was "who the f*ck is Allah?")
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rwzr4egp0o

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPepCVepCg

    Ah yes,,that well known phrase, Who the F*ck is Alan.

    I can almost admire the cojones of someone claiming that.
    I assumed they were referring to the old Smokie song “who the f*ck is Alice”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no

    Because 60,000 XL Bullies have been registered while the government thought there were only 10,000.

    I'd guess there are up to 100,000 in total; I don't get the sense Bully owners are big on bureaucracy.
    Put them down
    I can only imagine what this thread would be like if Leon hadn't flounced over cat food.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    tlg86 said:

    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.

    Well, alright!
    American conventions are always ridiculously upbeat hyper entertainment rather than 'composite motion x'.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    edited August 21

    Sandpit said:

    mercator said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    The NYT “fact checking” convention speech gag lines would be quite funny if they were doing it as satire.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1826301237144199352

    But what is Pritzker's point? That we should value billionaires' opinions more than anyone else's? Are Democrats saying the Republicans may have been taken over by rich anti-democratic oligarchs, but don't worry we've got just as many billionaires on our side?
    Gov. Pritzker's point is that saying Trump is a really a rich guy (or a really rich guy) is phoney baloney.
    Call me petit bourgeois if you will but to me a Boeing 757 says rich. It may be on a payment plan but lenders are usually not shy about repossession if payment is not kept up.
    Don’t laugh, but old 757’s are surprisingly cheap to buy, you can probably get one for £20-30m range depending on hours and condition. Costs about £10,000 an hour to fly it though, and the servicing bills will be horrendous. Absolutely no-one in the airplane servicing industry gives a penny of credit to any private operator.
    What would you do with a 757 if you bought it, though?
    Teach myself to fly it! It’s like a Cessna but a bit bigger, right? Right? ;)

    I suspect there’s no more than a dozen or two 757s in private hands, they’re almost obsolete these days, and I suspect they travel with literally tonnes of spare parts on board. It’s the aviation equivalent of running a 2001 S-Class or 7-Series.

    Boeing actually sells new 737’s with a bespoke VIP fitout, that they call the BBJ (no sniggering at the back). Aimed at governments, and possibly a few sheiks and oligarchs. £100m plane, but a lot cheaper to run than an old one.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Business_Jet
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,934

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
    You do understand, don't you, that improbable things happen all the time. In fact they have to. The probability of you winning the lottery (assuming you have bought a ticket) is immensely improbable, but it happens most weeks to someone. So unlikely events happen all the time. You only notice them when they do. Not all the times that they don't. You don't walk around going I just noticed a lot of improbable things not happening. Once they do happen the probability is no longer very very small but 1 and occasionally that happens.

    There is no way that humans can contrive a waterspout to destroy a massive yacht. Yet you think that is more probable. And why would they even if they could. It is much easier to contrive a scenario where he falls out of a window, gets food poisoning or knocked down by a car.

    The latter of course is what happened to his colleague. Now that is much easier to contrive, but of course it is also an event that is more probable to happen anyway. For both events to happen so close together is improbable, but we are back to the issue before which is:

    Improbable events happen all the time. You notice improbable events happening. You don't notice the vastly more improbable events not happening.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will give a live address on Friday about “his path forward,” a spokeswoman for his independent presidential campaign said on Wednesday.

    NY Times blog

    A live address - attended by fifty fewer than Vance's gathering.

    Most of the top two polling I have seen shows very little difference in terms of margin than when Kennedy Jnr is included.
  • tlg86 said:

    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.

    Well, alright!
    It works in America.

    Meanwhile check out Donald's speech in Pennsylvania which was supposed to take the limelight from the Dems. His performance was very low-energy, mumbling his way through and slurring his speech. He just looked so old and tired. Now that doesn't work in America - ask Joe.

    Its very early yet but the Reps really need to deal with that narrative before it gets set in stone.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
    You do understand, don't you, that improbable things happen all the time. In fact they have to. The probability of you winning the lottery (assuming you have bought a ticket) is immensely improbable, but it happens most weeks to someone. So unlikely events happen all the time. You only notice them when they do. Not all the times that they don't. You don't walk around going I just noticed a lot of improbable things not happening. Once they do happen the probability is no longer very very small but 1 and occasionally that happens.

    There is no way that humans can contrive a waterspout to destroy a massive yacht. Yet you think that is more probable. And why would they even if they could. It is much easier to contrive a scenario where he falls out of a window, gets food poisoning or knocked down by a car.

    The latter of course is what happened to his colleague. Now that is much easier to contrive, but of course it is also an event that is more probable to happen anyway. For both events to happen so close together is improbable, but we are back to the issue before which is:

    Improbable events happen all the time. You notice improbable events happening. You don't notice the vastly more improbable events not happening.
    Oh come on, do you really think lottery winners win by *chance*? The odds of that are astronomical.
  • Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no

    Because 60,000 XL Bullies have been registered while the government thought there were only 10,000.

    I'd guess there are up to 100,000 in total; I don't get the sense Bully owners are big on bureaucracy.
    Put them down
    Would improve the gene pool.

    But what do we do with the dogs then?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,945

    tlg86 said:

    The Democrat convention looking very Sheffield, 1992.

    Well, alright!
    American conventions are always ridiculously upbeat hyper entertainment rather than 'composite motion x'.
    Unless it's the RNC one, which resembled an auction at a wake.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
    You do understand, don't you, that improbable things happen all the time. In fact they have to. The probability of you winning the lottery (assuming you have bought a ticket) is immensely improbable, but it happens most weeks to someone. So unlikely events happen all the time. You only notice them when they do. Not all the times that they don't. You don't walk around going I just noticed a lot of improbable things not happening. Once they do happen the probability is no longer very very small but 1 and occasionally that happens.

    There is no way that humans can contrive a waterspout to destroy a massive yacht. Yet you think that is more probable. And why would they even if they could. It is much easier to contrive a scenario where he falls out of a window, gets food poisoning or knocked down by a car.

    The latter of course is what happened to his colleague. Now that is much easier to contrive, but of course it is also an event that is more probable to happen anyway. For both events to happen so close together is improbable, but we are back to the issue before which is:

    Improbable events happen all the time. You notice improbable events happening. You don't notice the vastly more improbable events not happening.
    Derren Brown taught me probability.

    Still love the film of him tossing a coin heads 10 times in a row.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,934
    rcs1000 said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
    You do understand, don't you, that improbable things happen all the time. In fact they have to. The probability of you winning the lottery (assuming you have bought a ticket) is immensely improbable, but it happens most weeks to someone. So unlikely events happen all the time. You only notice them when they do. Not all the times that they don't. You don't walk around going I just noticed a lot of improbable things not happening. Once they do happen the probability is no longer very very small but 1 and occasionally that happens.

    There is no way that humans can contrive a waterspout to destroy a massive yacht. Yet you think that is more probable. And why would they even if they could. It is much easier to contrive a scenario where he falls out of a window, gets food poisoning or knocked down by a car.

    The latter of course is what happened to his colleague. Now that is much easier to contrive, but of course it is also an event that is more probable to happen anyway. For both events to happen so close together is improbable, but we are back to the issue before which is:

    Improbable events happen all the time. You notice improbable events happening. You don't notice the vastly more improbable events not happening.
    Oh come on, do you really think lottery winners win by *chance*? The odds of that are astronomical.
    Very good. I do hate it when I write lots of words to explain something and some smart arse comes along with one line that explains it better.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Trump now focusing on calling the VP, "Comrade Kamala".


  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,447

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no

    Because 60,000 XL Bullies have been registered while the government thought there were only 10,000.

    I'd guess there are up to 100,000 in total; I don't get the sense Bully owners are big on bureaucracy.
    Put them down
    The government?

    The electorate did a decent job of that on July 4th.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,945

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It never seems to end.

    "Man killed by own XL bully dog at home"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrlkn8m35no

    Because 60,000 XL Bullies have been registered while the government thought there were only 10,000.

    I'd guess there are up to 100,000 in total; I don't get the sense Bully owners are big on bureaucracy.
    Put them down
    Would improve the gene pool.

    But what do we do with the dogs then?
    There is something very interesting about the British psyche that we don't see the XL Bully problem as a crisis for animal welfare.

    Hundreds (thousands?) of other dogs and cats have been savaged to death by them. Usually Brits are hyper alert to animal cruelty but apparently only when it's humans doing it. I suppose you can extend that to the popularity of Attenborough documentaries, where you regularly see antelope being eaten alive.
This discussion has been closed.