Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The latest Tory leadership betting – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,219
    Sandpit said:

    Funniest news story of the day, for me anyway.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/21/rioter-who-skipped-court-to-holiday-in-dubai-is-jailed/

    A rioter who skipped court to go on a week-long birthday holiday to Dubai has been jailed.

    “Perrie Fisher, 29, was criticised by a judge for his “cavalier attitude” to justice as he sentenced him to two years and five months for his violent conduct outside an asylum seeker hotel.

    “Winchester Crown Court was told Fisher wore an England flag as he threw a scooter and bicycle wheels and kicked footballs at the windows of the building, shouting abuse at migrants.

    “Fisher, a father of one, did not react as he was sentenced after admitting charges of violent disorder and failing to surrender himself at court.

    “He had flown to Dubai despite being charged for his role in the violence that took place outside Potters International Hotel, Aldershot, Hants, on July 31, two days after the Southport killings.”


    So much to unpack there. Starting with Potters Hotel, once the annual scene of the darts world championship, now being used to house asylum-seekers, and finishing with who the f*** goes on holiday to Dubai in August?

    Rather goes against the narrative that the rioters were all from an underclass. I imagine a week-long holiday in Dubai isn't that cheap.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018

    Sandpit said:

    Funniest news story of the day, for me anyway.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/21/rioter-who-skipped-court-to-holiday-in-dubai-is-jailed/

    A rioter who skipped court to go on a week-long birthday holiday to Dubai has been jailed.

    “Perrie Fisher, 29, was criticised by a judge for his “cavalier attitude” to justice as he sentenced him to two years and five months for his violent conduct outside an asylum seeker hotel.

    “Winchester Crown Court was told Fisher wore an England flag as he threw a scooter and bicycle wheels and kicked footballs at the windows of the building, shouting abuse at migrants.

    “Fisher, a father of one, did not react as he was sentenced after admitting charges of violent disorder and failing to surrender himself at court.

    “He had flown to Dubai despite being charged for his role in the violence that took place outside Potters International Hotel, Aldershot, Hants, on July 31, two days after the Southport killings.”


    So much to unpack there. Starting with Potters Hotel, once the annual scene of the darts world championship, now being used to house asylum-seekers, and finishing with who the f*** goes on holiday to Dubai in August?

    Rather goes against the narrative that the rioters were all from an underclass. I imagine a week-long holiday in Dubai isn't that cheap.
    It is in August.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,708
    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,284
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    But isn’t that because native U.K.ians are too lazy to get up off their piles of £50 notes (benefits) and be slave labour on death traps where the centre of gravity and the centre of buoyancy are a bit too friendly?
    On the issue of emoluments *alone* (not implying anything about the ships themselves), this is a nicely understated comment in a Parliament committee from the boss of P&O Ferrioes, which famously sacked its UK crews in favour of less expensive matelots:

    https://www.ft.com/content/68713a8e-c353-40b9-b7c1-6b3c4501c36f

    'Total hourly pay started from £4.87 after including guaranteed overtime, bonuses and holiday pay, Hebblethwaite said. He added that although it was “considerably ahead” of international minimum standards, he could not himself live on that amount.'

    (Not sure of HMG (last lot) ever did anything about it.)

    In all that hoo-hah, I never saw an answer on whether the new staff live on the ferry (so they don't actually have the right to work in the UK or France) or whether they live in houseshares in Dover or Calais.

    If they live on the ferry, and get free meals, free wifi and so on, and pay no tax, they might get to take 80% of that £4.87 ph home at the end of their posting. So whether the CEO could live on it is not quite the point.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    kamski said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will give a live address on Friday about “his path forward,” a spokeswoman for his independent presidential campaign said on Wednesday.

    NY Times blog

    A live address - attended by fifty fewer than Vance's gathering.

    Most of the top two polling I have seen shows very little difference in terms of margin than when Kennedy Jnr is included.
    I think Kennedy dropping out helps Trump by about a point or 2 vs Harris, though it may depend on the state. Kennedy dropping out and endorsing Trump probably helps Trump a bit more than that. I know a couple of American anti-vaxer types who like Kennedy and don't like Trump, but if Kennedy says vote Trump I think they might, though there are others who would just stop liking Kennedy.

    OTOH could Trump accepting Kennedy's endorsement hurt Trump with some voters? I don't see it.

    I recommend John Oliver's piece on RFK the other day. It's not that funny but it seems Oliver has switched from comedy to serious journalism with a few jokes thrown in to sugar the pill.
    Personally think impact of RFK Jr. in OR out, is overblown - by PBers & punters, also Dem & Rep politicos & consultants.

    Certainly very state-specific. AND even then, significant only IF the Harris vs Trump statewide margin is VERY close.

    That is, the way that Pat Buchanan helped out Bush the Younger in Florida in 2000.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,761

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    One of the most bizarre fates that can be suffered is the crew of bankrupt ships.

    https://www.seafarers.org/itf-spotlights-abandoned-crews/

    They are often trapped on board without food, yet cannot land or abandon their ships.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742

    Nigelb said:

    Battles are reported in the Bryansk region Ukraine appears to have crossed the border in another location!
    https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1826329810500760016

    Vyazma next and then set targets beyond Moscow…
    The biggest change to the map of Ukraine - and its security - would be a change of the pro-Putin Government in Belarus. A Ukraine (and NATO) friendly Belarus would free up Ukrainian forces needed to be available to protect Kyiv - and allow a huge push into Russia. In the Brynsk direction.

    If it turns out the CIA have been busy fomenting revolution in Belarus, I would not be overly surprised...

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,456
    edited August 21
    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    But isn’t that because native U.K.ians are too lazy to get up off their piles of £50 notes (benefits) and be slave labour on death traps where the centre of gravity and the centre of buoyancy are a bit too friendly?
    On the issue of emoluments *alone* (not implying anything about the ships themselves), this is a nicely understated comment in a Parliament committee from the boss of P&O Ferrioes, which famously sacked its UK crews in favour of less expensive matelots:

    https://www.ft.com/content/68713a8e-c353-40b9-b7c1-6b3c4501c36f

    'Total hourly pay started from £4.87 after including guaranteed overtime, bonuses and holiday pay, Hebblethwaite said. He added that although it was “considerably ahead” of international minimum standards, he could not himself live on that amount.'

    (Not sure of HMG (last lot) ever did anything about it.)

    In all that hoo-hah, I never saw an answer on whether the new staff live on the ferry (so they don't actually have the right to work in the UK or France) or whether they live in houseshares in Dover or Calais.

    If they live on the ferry, and get free meals, free wifi and so on, and pay no tax, they might get to take 80% of that £4.87 ph home at the end of their posting. So whether the CEO could live on it is not quite the point.
    I wouldn't mind knowing, either. But you're assiming they have time off at all.

    "ITV News and the Guardian have seen payslips and contracts which show that, until recently, some crew onboard P&O's ferries have been working 12-hour shifts, seven days a week for up to 17 weeks at a time."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-04-22/p-and-o-tells-crew-it-will-comply-with-french-law-and-reduce-their-hours

    Anmd whether the CEO could live on it is the point, if it is a case of him importing cheap labour from overseas.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,456
    edited August 21
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    One of the most bizarre fates that can be suffered is the crew of bankrupt ships.

    https://www.seafarers.org/itf-spotlights-abandoned-crews/

    They are often trapped on board without food, yet cannot land or abandon their ships.
    They often relyu on charities and local people's good will just to survive.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481

    Kamala HQ
    @KamalaHQ
    ·
    1h
    Trump: My advisors tell me 'please sir, don't get personal. Talk about policy.' My advisors are fired
  • Good evening

    Does anyone know what on earth Chelsea are doing in the transfer market with apparently over 40 players and signing more on contracts upto 9 years in length, whilst having a squad of only 21 players and seemingly in chaos

    Indeed Chelsea players apparently have 197 years of contracts

    Sterling has had his number 7 shirt taken from him and told he is not part of any squad

    I have no idea how this conforms to fair play rules or even makes sense

    I do not support Chelsea thankfully but it surely cannot go on

    In the short run its helping Chelsea under Financial Fair Play rules.

    When you buy a player the cost of the transfer is amortised over the length of the contract, so by giving a 9 year instead of 3 year contract they only have 1/9th not 1/3rd of the transfer on the books this year.

    When you sell a player you book the entire transfer fee in the year that the fee was made.

    So sell a few players and spend much more over long contracts, and your books appear balanced under the rules.

    Its a short term gain though as it means in a couple of years they're going to face a reckoning as players they got years ago would still be on the books. Its only really a temporary gain when you transition from short to long contracts.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Trump now focusing on calling the VP, "Comrade Kamala".


    He was tweeting this out the other day:
    Not sure he was wise to: some smart aleck in the Dems will inevitably retaliate by putting Trump at a Nuremberg rally.
    I doubt it.
    They already have Jan 6th, or Charlottesville; it would be a waste of effort.

    I don’t think the GOP attacks are landing, as they’re obvious nonsense unless you’re a true believer. Comrade Bernie, perhaps; Kamala… no.

    And Trump’s just flailing around, in the hope something connects.
    Funny, that's what Stormy said...
    Which candidate will be first to play "Storm Weather" at their campaign rallies?

    My bet is on Tim Walz!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,284
    Carnyx said:

    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    But isn’t that because native U.K.ians are too lazy to get up off their piles of £50 notes (benefits) and be slave labour on death traps where the centre of gravity and the centre of buoyancy are a bit too friendly?
    On the issue of emoluments *alone* (not implying anything about the ships themselves), this is a nicely understated comment in a Parliament committee from the boss of P&O Ferrioes, which famously sacked its UK crews in favour of less expensive matelots:

    https://www.ft.com/content/68713a8e-c353-40b9-b7c1-6b3c4501c36f

    'Total hourly pay started from £4.87 after including guaranteed overtime, bonuses and holiday pay, Hebblethwaite said. He added that although it was “considerably ahead” of international minimum standards, he could not himself live on that amount.'

    (Not sure of HMG (last lot) ever did anything about it.)

    In all that hoo-hah, I never saw an answer on whether the new staff live on the ferry (so they don't actually have the right to work in the UK or France) or whether they live in houseshares in Dover or Calais.

    If they live on the ferry, and get free meals, free wifi and so on, and pay no tax, they might get to take 80% of that £4.87 ph home at the end of their posting. So whether the CEO could live on it is not quite the point.
    I wouldn't mind knowing, either. But you're assiming they have time off at all.

    "ITV News and the Guardian have seen payslips and contracts which show that, until recently, some crew onboard P&O's ferries have been working 12-hour shifts, seven days a week for up to 17 weeks at a time."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2024-04-22/p-and-o-tells-crew-it-will-comply-with-french-law-and-reduce-their-hours

    Anmd whether the CEO could live on it is the point, if it is a case of him importing cheap labour from overseas.
    Point is, he's not importing anything, no more than a cruise ship is: because international law says those people aren't working in the UK (or france). They are, sort of, in international waters.

    Now, perhaps those laws want changing. But it probably involves reopening treaties.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,379

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    Utterly callous post. I assume you accept that modern slavery exists?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,368
    Nick Watt is presenting Newsnight for I think the first time.
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 153
    Foxy said:

    SteveS said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Having a friend in the Merchant Navy is a real eye-opener. All sorts of absolutely horrific stuff happens to these people, particularly to those from the Philippines. Flattened under containers, tossed overboard, life-changing burns and so on.
    Even the Red Funnel to the Isle of Wight is staffed by Filipino sailors now. It seems very difficult to recruit Britons to these jobs nowadays.
    … at the wage that the companies are prepared to pay. International waters and a free market innit.

    See also the Dover ferries
    The Red Funnel never leave the Solent, though an element of time travel is involved. It takes you back a couple of decades.
    Fair point. My mistake.

    s
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,251

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Trump now focusing on calling the VP, "Comrade Kamala".


    He was tweeting this out the other day:
    Not sure he was wise to: some smart aleck in the Dems will inevitably retaliate by putting Trump at a Nuremberg rally.
    I doubt it.
    They already have Jan 6th, or Charlottesville; it would be a waste of effort.

    I don’t think the GOP attacks are landing, as they’re obvious nonsense unless you’re a true believer. Comrade Bernie, perhaps; Kamala… no.

    And Trump’s just flailing around, in the hope something connects.
    Funny, that's what Stormy said...
    Which candidate will be first to play "Storm Weather" at their campaign rallies?

    My bet is on Tim Walz!
    And who will play The Last Waltz?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,539
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    One of the most bizarre fates that can be suffered is the crew of bankrupt ships.

    https://www.seafarers.org/itf-spotlights-abandoned-crews/

    They are often trapped on board without food, yet cannot land or abandon their ships.
    They often rely on charities and local people's good will just to survive.
    Oh - so they're part of the Northern Powerhouse, Big Society, Levelling Up Agenda?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,539

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    Jeez.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,215

    Sandpit said:

    Funniest news story of the day, for me anyway.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/21/rioter-who-skipped-court-to-holiday-in-dubai-is-jailed/

    A rioter who skipped court to go on a week-long birthday holiday to Dubai has been jailed.

    “Perrie Fisher, 29, was criticised by a judge for his “cavalier attitude” to justice as he sentenced him to two years and five months for his violent conduct outside an asylum seeker hotel.

    “Winchester Crown Court was told Fisher wore an England flag as he threw a scooter and bicycle wheels and kicked footballs at the windows of the building, shouting abuse at migrants.

    “Fisher, a father of one, did not react as he was sentenced after admitting charges of violent disorder and failing to surrender himself at court.

    “He had flown to Dubai despite being charged for his role in the violence that took place outside Potters International Hotel, Aldershot, Hants, on July 31, two days after the Southport killings.”


    So much to unpack there. Starting with Potters Hotel, once the annual scene of the darts world championship, now being used to house asylum-seekers, and finishing with who the f*** goes on holiday to Dubai in August?

    Rather goes against the narrative that the rioters were all from an underclass. I imagine a week-long holiday in Dubai isn't that cheap.
    An extra 2 weeks in Jail (1 month, let out half way through) in this case. According to the article he gave the police his return flight details so he could be arrested on the flight back from Dubai.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,284
    Here is the briefing on the bill passed in 2023 to fix some of these ferry pay issues:

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9670/CBP-9670.pdf
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,032
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    Or indeed some migrants. There are some estimates of 30,000 dead or missing in the Med over the last 10 years.
    The Zico sank in Mozambique on April 7th with the loss of over 100 lives.

    I wonder how many people on here were even aware of it? I don't recall any news reports.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/08/mozambique-ferry-disaster-sinking-death-toll-nampula-province

    But not to deny your basic point, and SandyR's.

    Even the number of fisherfolk drowned in the UK is too many.
    Britons were involved, which always draws interest.

    I remember the Leicester Mercury's local angle on the Bali bombing: "Bali bomb kills 200, Leicester family flies home with holiday ruined."
    Shane McGowan was born in Kent because his family were here from Ireland visiting extended family over Christmas. When he died some of the local press went with "Kent pop-star dies".

    They eventually moved over and he got a scholarship to Westminster, but didn't last long.
    Hm - he was born in Kent and also lived in Kent from aged 6 to 18. I think it's reasonable to regard him as Kentish.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,611
    carnforth said:

    Here is the briefing on the bill passed in 2023 to fix some of these ferry pay issues:

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9670/CBP-9670.pdf

    I thought ferry pay would be one of those phrases like platty joobs or sassy tempt.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,462
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these numbers trying to tell us that Trump might drop out?

    Trump 2.04
    Harris 2.1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

    Remember that @kinabalu and I both long ago predicted that neither Biden nor Trumpton would run... to much mockery on here...
    I hope you've got a bet on it with high odds, just in case it does happen.
    Cheers… but sadly I have not.
  • One more thing on the long contracts and Financial Fair Play, its leading to a lot of creative accounting to massage the figures. Especially with bilateral trades.

    Lets say I run a club and you do too Big G and we have players valued at £10m that we can swap. Swapping two players both worth £10m is no change in the books surely you'd think?

    But what if I buy from you for £50m and you buy from me for £50m too? Oh and what if we give the players we're buying a five year contract?

    Well then by the magic of that trade we've both booked £50m in revenues this year (sales hit the accounts in full, immediately) but we've only got amortised £10m in costs to account for.

    Now we can both book £40m of net profit into our accounts for Financial Fair Play purposes.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,284

    carnforth said:

    Here is the briefing on the bill passed in 2023 to fix some of these ferry pay issues:

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9670/CBP-9670.pdf

    I thought ferry pay would be one of those phrases like platty joobs or sassy tempt.
    Ferry nuff.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,462
    kamski said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will give a live address on Friday about “his path forward,” a spokeswoman for his independent presidential campaign said on Wednesday.

    NY Times blog

    A live address - attended by fifty fewer than Vance's gathering.

    Most of the top two polling I have seen shows very little difference in terms of margin than when Kennedy Jnr is included.
    I think Kennedy dropping out helps Trump by about a point or 2 vs Harris, though it may depend on the state. Kennedy dropping out and endorsing Trump probably helps Trump a bit more than that. I know a couple of American anti-vaxer types who like Kennedy and don't like Trump, but if Kennedy says vote Trump I think they might, though there are others who would just stop liking Kennedy.

    OTOH could Trump accepting Kennedy's endorsement hurt Trump with some voters? I don't see it.

    I recommend John Oliver's piece on RFK the other day. It's not that funny but it seems Oliver has switched from comedy to serious journalism with a few jokes thrown in to sugar the pill.
    I suspect it will make fuck all difference either way TBH
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,174
    edited August 21
    dixiedean said:
    Yes, too much of this happening. The usual subjects including SYL/TR turned out on X and were most opaque in wondering who the culprit might be in a place like Bradford, but were probably not thinking of anyone looking like those who the Mum appeared with in social media.

    And there was a parallel strand of 'a man did this', which looks possibly true.

    There was also a mother and child killed and one seriously injured in a fire in Huddersfield in the days immediately following the Southport attack. I must admit my sadness was mixed with the thought "I hope to God it isn't an Asian man" at that point.

    The tenor of the MSM reporting was odd, clearly suggesting the mother herself as the prime suspect, whilst quoting those who said she'd do anything for anyone. No man gets that consideration. (Edit: nor should he)

    It is possible that in both cases that there may be kids with additional needs involved, and in both cases the houses were semi-detached, so could have torched the neighbours too. I guess that in only one case a lazy 'end of tether' media narrative might emerge, which I feel would be utterly inappropriate given what was done.

    But terrible every way you look at it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742

    kamski said:

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will give a live address on Friday about “his path forward,” a spokeswoman for his independent presidential campaign said on Wednesday.

    NY Times blog

    A live address - attended by fifty fewer than Vance's gathering.

    Most of the top two polling I have seen shows very little difference in terms of margin than when Kennedy Jnr is included.
    I think Kennedy dropping out helps Trump by about a point or 2 vs Harris, though it may depend on the state. Kennedy dropping out and endorsing Trump probably helps Trump a bit more than that. I know a couple of American anti-vaxer types who like Kennedy and don't like Trump, but if Kennedy says vote Trump I think they might, though there are others who would just stop liking Kennedy.

    OTOH could Trump accepting Kennedy's endorsement hurt Trump with some voters? I don't see it.

    I recommend John Oliver's piece on RFK the other day. It's not that funny but it seems Oliver has switched from comedy to serious journalism with a few jokes thrown in to sugar the pill.
    I suspect it will make fuck all difference either way TBH
    Especially as he will drop out before Labor Day, so before most are paying much attention.

    Trump might hope it will put him back in the spotlight during the blanket coverage of the Democrat's Convention.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,368
    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    edited August 21
    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    He is a weird part of the Kennedy family. One thing you can rely on - the whole of the rest of the Kennedy family will be united in saying that by supporting Trump, he is going against the entire legacy of the Kennedy political clan. To the extent that JFK still has any political memory with the voters, it will be using that memory against Trump.

    JFK vs Trump: Camelot vs came alot....
  • Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    A lunatic who peddled antivax conspiracy theories to extremists online?

    I wonder whose electorate best represents that?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,103
    @TSE It's not "quasi-AV", because you can change your voting choice between rounds, UNLIKE an AV election.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,852
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
    You do understand, don't you, that improbable things happen all the time. In fact they have to. The probability of you winning the lottery (assuming you have bought a ticket) is immensely improbable, but it happens most weeks to someone. So unlikely events happen all the time. You only notice them when they do. Not all the times that they don't. You don't walk around going I just noticed a lot of improbable things not happening. Once they do happen the probability is no longer very very small but 1 and occasionally that happens.

    There is no way that humans can contrive a waterspout to destroy a massive yacht. Yet you think that is more probable. And why would they even if they could. It is much easier to contrive a scenario where he falls out of a window, gets food poisoning or knocked down by a car.

    The latter of course is what happened to his colleague. Now that is much easier to contrive, but of course it is also an event that is more probable to happen anyway. For both events to happen so close together is improbable, but we are back to the issue before which is:

    Improbable events happen all the time. You
    notice improbable events happening. You don't notice the vastly more improbable events not happening.
    And yet…

    Two unlikely events

    Occurring at a convenient point in time

    With a significant financial benefit (they were suing HP)

    And both unexplained (the water spout may or may not have happened - the storm was used cover for something more nefarious)

    😈
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,052
    edited August 21

    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    A lunatic who peddled antivax conspiracy theories to extremists online?

    I wonder whose electorate best represents that?
    He is also anti big corporations, anti foreign wars, pro envrionmental policies and pro choice on abortion and favoured more funds for childcare.

    Indeed Yougov found RFK Jr was getting 47% of his voters from Biden 2020 voters and 43% from Trump 2020 voters ie almost equal
    https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/49697-is-robert-f-kennedy-jr-drawing-more-support-from-biden-or-trump-poll

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440

    One more thing on the long contracts and Financial Fair Play, its leading to a lot of creative accounting to massage the figures. Especially with bilateral trades.

    Lets say I run a club and you do too Big G and we have players valued at £10m that we can swap. Swapping two players both worth £10m is no change in the books surely you'd think?

    But what if I buy from you for £50m and you buy from me for £50m too? Oh and what if we give the players we're buying a five year contract?

    Well then by the magic of that trade we've both booked £50m in revenues this year (sales hit the accounts in full, immediately) but we've only got amortised £10m in costs to account for.

    Now we can both book £40m of net profit into our accounts for Financial Fair Play purposes.

    Would have thought FFP rules explicitly downvalue collusion of this type. If the two clubs are related (Man City/Sporting) parties then there should be elimination for the purposes of FFP anyway
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,852
    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---


    I for one entirely believe them.
    My assumption is that someone somewhere was bribed. Otherwise the Scottish legal establishment should be ashamed of themselves
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,368

    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    He is a weird part of the Kennedy family. One thing you can rely on - the whole of the rest of the Kennedy family will be united in saying that by supporting Trump, he is going against the entire legacy of the Kennedy political clan. To the extent that JFK still has any political memory with the voters, it will be using that memory against Trump.

    JFK vs Trump: Camelot vs came alot....
    So him dropping out should help Trump?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    He is a weird part of the Kennedy family. One thing you can rely on - the whole of the rest of the Kennedy family will be united in saying that by supporting Trump, he is going against the entire legacy of the Kennedy political clan. To the extent that JFK still has any political memory with the voters, it will be using that memory against Trump.

    JFK vs Trump: Camelot vs came alot....
    So him dropping out should help Trump?
    Weird Kennedys are hardly rare! More like the norm. Like F. Scott Fitzgerald said, the rich are not like you & me (assuming YOU ain't rich).

    Note that large share of RFK, Jr's "support" in polls, has in reality been "none of the above" vote; much of it is gonna stay that way until the First Tuesday After the First Monday in November.

    And while his orginal potential was clearly aimed at Democrats - which is why most of his funders funded him, in hopes of hurting Biden, recent polling suggest RFK, Jr NOT helping Trump much, if any when you factor in the "none of the above" factor.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    He is a weird part of the Kennedy family. One thing you can rely on - the whole of the rest of the Kennedy family will be united in saying that by supporting Trump, he is going against the entire legacy of the Kennedy political clan. To the extent that JFK still has any political memory with the voters, it will be using that memory against Trump.

    JFK vs Trump: Camelot vs came alot....
    So him dropping out should help Trump?
    Weird Kennedys are hardly rare! More like the norm. Like F. Scott Fitzgerald said, the rich are not like you & me (assuming YOU ain't rich).

    Note that large share of RFK, Jr's "support" in polls, has in reality been "none of the above" vote; much of it is gonna stay that way until the First Tuesday After the First Monday in November.

    And while his orginal potential was clearly aimed at Democrats - which is why most of his funders funded him, in hopes of hurting Biden, recent polling suggest RFK, Jr NOT helping Trump much, if any when you factor in the "none of the above" factor.
    He's a nut, largely funded by Republican donors, in the hope that he'd be a third party candidate who chipped away at the Democratic vote.

    When it seemed his candidacy might hurt Trump instead, he's decided to drop out and endorse Trump.

    Odd, that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    For Seashanty.

    In awe of the volunteers who are making this DNC happen. Less than a minute before Walz took the stage, hundreds of volunteers passed out thousands of Coach Walz signs in a matter of seconds. Amazing to witness.
    https://x.com/BenFriedman/status/1826460861185089702
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    One of the most bizarre fates that can be suffered is the crew of bankrupt ships.

    https://www.seafarers.org/itf-spotlights-abandoned-crews/

    They are often trapped on board without food, yet cannot land or abandon their ships.
    Yes it’s a very weird limbo. There was one in my part of the world last year, the local Red Crescent sent a supply ship to them every few weeks while various companies and governments worked out what to do with them. After about 18 months of this, they were eventually allowed to dock locally and the crew flown home, the cost of which was paid by a consortium of governments who then took a lien on the ship.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    He is a weird part of the Kennedy family. One thing you can rely on - the whole of the rest of the Kennedy family will be united in saying that by supporting Trump, he is going against the entire legacy of the Kennedy political clan. To the extent that JFK still has any political memory with the voters, it will be using that memory against Trump.

    JFK vs Trump: Camelot vs came alot....
    So him dropping out should help Trump?
    Weird Kennedys are hardly rare! More like the norm. Like F. Scott Fitzgerald said, the rich are not like you & me (assuming YOU ain't rich).

    Note that large share of RFK, Jr's "support" in polls, has in reality been "none of the above" vote; much of it is gonna stay that way until the First Tuesday After the First Monday in November.

    And while his orginal potential was clearly aimed at Democrats - which is why most of his funders funded him, in hopes of hurting Biden, recent polling suggest RFK, Jr NOT helping Trump much, if any when you factor in the "none of the above" factor.
    I reckon that about 20% of his vote goes to Harris, about 30% to Trump, and the other half don’t turn out. There might be some variations in certain States though, which in theory could make a difference in very tight races.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,649
    Trump's appeal in his fraud case fixed for 26th September:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/new-york-trump-civil-fraud-oral-arguments-scheduled/index.html

    Seems unlikely there will be a ruling before 5th November.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 675
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    He is a weird part of the Kennedy family. One thing you can rely on - the whole of the rest of the Kennedy family will be united in saying that by supporting Trump, he is going against the entire legacy of the Kennedy political clan. To the extent that JFK still has any political memory with the voters, it will be using that memory against Trump.

    JFK vs Trump: Camelot vs came alot....
    So him dropping out should help Trump?
    Weird Kennedys are hardly rare! More like the norm. Like F. Scott Fitzgerald said, the rich are not like you & me (assuming YOU ain't rich).

    Note that large share of RFK, Jr's "support" in polls, has in reality been "none of the above" vote; much of it is gonna stay that way until the First Tuesday After the First Monday in November.

    And while his orginal potential was clearly aimed at Democrats - which is why most of his funders funded him, in hopes of hurting Biden, recent polling suggest RFK, Jr NOT helping Trump much, if any when you factor in the "none of the above" factor.
    He's a nut, largely funded by Republican donors, in the hope that he'd be a third party candidate who chipped away at the Democratic vote.

    When it seemed his candidacy might hurt Trump instead, he's decided to drop out and endorse Trump.

    Odd, that.
    He has always reminded me of Connor in "Succession:" the not very bright member of the powerful family who runs as an independent and achieves 1 per cent of the poll.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,219
    What’s happening with the fines he owes in the New York case and the Jean Carroll case?
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 675
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slavery or human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    One of the most bizarre fates that can be suffered is the crew of bankrupt ships.

    https://www.seafarers.org/itf-spotlights-abandoned-crews/

    They are often trapped on board without food, yet cannot land or abandon their ships.
    Somebody locally runs a fund-raising event each year for the Seafarers' Charity. I used to regard it as a Victorian institution until I read an article about its work in "Private Eye." As Foxy has described, crews can get stuck on boats without food, unable to leave, and I was impressed by the work the charity does to aid crews in such dreadful situations.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,762
    edited August 22
    The Democratic convention is going well with unity, pizazz and homespun speechifying. All a marked contrast to the events in Milwaulkee a few weeks ago.

    Stick a fork in the Donald. He’s done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,649

    What’s happening with the fines he owes in the New York case and the Jean Carroll case?

    I think the Caroll case is finished, as his further applications for an appeal have been dismissed, but I'm not sure where he is on payment.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,708
    edited August 22

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slaverany meaningfulr human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    Utterly callous post. I assume you accept that modern slavery exists?
    I find it extremely implausible that men who were fit enough to work on a fishing trawler were held in any meaningful form of captivity by their employers. Is there anything in this case even to suggest that they weren't just working illegally? The modern slavery laws are a massive loophole in the immigration system and can be deployed to prevent deportation whenever an illegal migrant is discovered working. This is not something I have made up - the laws were considered for repeal by the 2019 Government, and should have been.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,553

    NEW THREAD

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,478

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    From the wall to wall coverage of the sunk yacht, it seems that BLM stands for Billionaires Lives Matter.

    If this had been a fishing boat or a cargo ship, 30 second news report.

    But... fishermen are the little people. Barely even worth a 30 minute 1-2-1 interview on a prime-time news show. This guy was rich enough to go to the same parties as my executive producer. Important people.

    (Sorry - I've spent > 6hrs in zoom today talking about p*sh. I'm in a cynical frame of mind.)
    Also: given that an increasing number of UK fisherfolk are from what one used to call the third world, the comparison might be extended further ...
    The BBC (to their credit) did this piece the other day on that subject :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9dnk34k41o

    Dozens of workers from around the world may have been trafficked into the UK to work for a small family-owned Scottish fishing firm, a BBC investigation has revealed.

    Thirty-five men from the Philippines, Ghana, India and Sri Lanka were recognised as victims of modern slavery by the Home Office after being referred to it between 2012 and 2020.

    The workers were employed by TN Trawlers and its sister companies, owned by the Nicholson family, based in the small town of Annan on the southern coast of Scotland.

    The TN Group denied any allegation of modern slaverany meaningfulr human trafficking and said its workers were well treated and well paid.

    ---

    I for one entirely believe them.
    Modern slavery has become the go to for those not wishing to be deported. Thanks Theresa.
    Utterly callous post. I assume you accept that modern slavery exists?
    I find it extremely implausible that men who were fit enough to work on a fishing trawler were held in any meaningful form of captivity by their employers. Is there anything in this case even to suggest that they weren't just working illegally? The modern slavery laws are a massive loophole in the immigration system and can be deployed to prevent deportation whenever an illegal migrant is discovered working. This is not something I have made up - the laws were considered for repeal by the 2019 Government, and should have been.
    I am far from being an expert on this, but IMV *if* someone is being restricted in some way so they cannot change jobs: e.g. withheld wages, stupid invented debts to the employer (e.g. accommodation), passports taken off them - then that becomes a form of slavery. No idea if these applied to these people, but it seems to be a sadly common occurrence in these cases.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,045
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The odd thing about Kennedy is that it's difficult to say whether his candidacy most hurt/helped either of the main two candidates.

    He is a weird part of the Kennedy family. One thing you can rely on - the whole of the rest of the Kennedy family will be united in saying that by supporting Trump, he is going against the entire legacy of the Kennedy political clan. To the extent that JFK still has any political memory with the voters, it will be using that memory against Trump.

    JFK vs Trump: Camelot vs came alot....
    So him dropping out should help Trump?
    Weird Kennedys are hardly rare! More like the norm. Like F. Scott Fitzgerald said, the rich are not like you & me (assuming YOU ain't rich).

    Note that large share of RFK, Jr's "support" in polls, has in reality been "none of the above" vote; much of it is gonna stay that way until the First Tuesday After the First Monday in November.

    And while his orginal potential was clearly aimed at Democrats - which is why most of his funders funded him, in hopes of hurting Biden, recent polling suggest RFK, Jr NOT helping Trump much, if any when you factor in the "none of the above" factor.
    I reckon that about 20% of his vote goes to Harris, about 30% to Trump, and the other half don’t turn out. There might be some variations in certain States though, which in theory could make a difference in very tight races.
    That's maybe roughly where the polling is. Kennedy is on 5%ish, and in the H2H polling Trump's margin is often 1%ish better (in the same poll). But the polling including Kennedy often includes Stein, West, sometimes Oliver (I don't know which of them are on the ballot in which states). In most 5/6 way polling they all get 0% (rounded) but Stein sometimes gets 1%. I'm assuming in the H2H polling those Stein votes are mostly going to Harris if anywhere, so the net impact of Kennedy withdrawing about 1-2% to Trump. But Kennedy actively endorsing Trump is going to swing some of those ex-Kennedy voters who otherwise wouldn't turn out to vote Trump, so I guess 2-3% to Trump in that case.

    Normally, I'd say embracing a nutcase/grifter like Kennedy would also hurt a candidate, but as he is himself a bigger nut/grifter I can't see it hurting Trump.


  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,517
    edited August 22

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    Has @Luckyguy1983 opined yet on the probability of two individuals who humiliated the US tech industry dying in two freak accidents within days of each other?
    Yes, I think it reeks.
    You think the global elite conjured up a tornado/waterspout off the coast of Sicily, maybe?
    Foul play, however complicatedly and expensively contrived, seems considerably more probable than the natural mini-disaster you suggest. Eliminate the impossible and all that.
    You do understand, don't you, that improbable things happen all the time. In fact they have to. The probability of you winning the lottery (assuming you have bought a ticket) is immensely improbable, but it happens most weeks to someone. So unlikely events happen all the time. You only notice them when they do. Not all the times that they don't. You don't walk around going I just noticed a lot of improbable things not happening. Once they do happen the probability is no longer very very small but 1 and occasionally that happens.

    There is no way that humans can contrive a waterspout to destroy a massive yacht. Yet you think that is more probable. And why would they even if they could. It is much easier to contrive a scenario where he falls out of a window, gets food poisoning or knocked down by a car.

    The latter of course is what happened to his colleague. Now that is much easier to contrive, but of course it is also an event that is more probable to happen anyway. For both events to happen so close together is improbable, but we are back to the issue before which is:

    Improbable events happen all the time. You
    notice improbable events happening. You don't notice the vastly more improbable events not happening.
    And yet…

    Two unlikely events

    Occurring at a convenient point in time

    With a significant financial benefit (they were suing HP)

    And both unexplained (the water spout may or may not have happened - the storm was used cover for something more nefarious)

    😈
    It's like I didn't make that post. The whole point being missed. Or is the post a wind up. Apologies if it is. See @Sandpit and @rcs1000 for similar explanations. I'm guessing the devil emoji is telling me it is a windup. If it is it is very subtle or it is too early for me.
This discussion has been closed.