Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
At the very least he displays a decent sense of humour.
He does. Real New York wiseguy. Best in short doses but I do enjoy listening to him.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Our Labour force participation is 10th highest of those with records, beaten only by Japan, NZ, and some North European countries. Significantly better than the OECD average.
Otherwise- somewhat more students since the mid 90s, somewhat fewer homekeepers, but most of the numbers pretty stable.
Go back a generation or two earlier and the proportion of 'homekeepers' would be much higher, and few eyelids would be batted. It was just the way things were.
Yet somehow we're now expecting a far higher % of working age people to make up an expanded workforce, despite all the progress made by technology and automation. And retirement ages keep going up, further increasing the pool of those expected to participate.
At a macro level, absolutely none of this makes any sense at all if you stop and think about it for one moment.
If something like Moore's Law had even vaguely applied to human beings and their usefulness the norm would be a 2-3 day standard working week with retirement at 55.
I just don't see how he gets it. He's superficially plausible and even likeable at times (date rape "jokes" aside) but he isn't an original thinker and doesn't have a case that Tory members are likely to find particularly compelling as leader.
Cleverly is essentially the "potter on and hope Labour f*** up" candidate and, while that might not actually be an awful strategy, it isn't going to win a leadership election. Particularly in circumstances where a huge number of Tory members feel bruised, have lost their local MP, and are angry with the universe. They want answers, even if they are essentially bullshit answers.
The first bit's easy enough- I can see him hoovering up the non-nutter MPs as Stride and Tugendhat drop out. That gets him into the final round; 40 MPs will be enough for that.
Then it gets harder- he probably has to hope that his rival on the right says something really silly, like Leadsom did. Which isn't impossible.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Trivia question - name the song that knocked Bohemian Rhapsody off the top spot that shared a lyric (a word/phrase) with the song.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Our Labour force participation is 10th highest of those with records, beaten only by Japan, NZ, and some North European countries. Significantly better than the OECD average.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Scaramucci has the entertaining patter of the confidence trickster, but that's it. He got a job, screwed it up within hours, and was quickly removed... and not even primarily by Trump but by John Kelly as Chief of Staff, who was rightly trying to impose some basic discipline on the operation.
Scaramucci wasn't in the building long enough to form real insights into Trump and his operation. So he goes on and presents the well worn criticism, plus a flash of "Trump may well do [random thing]" to keep the liberals excited.
You want actual insight into the flaws of the operation and Trump personally, ask the man who sacked Scaramucci - John Kelly. He was a serious figure who was there for 18 months, did a genuine job of work trying and failing to change the culture of it, and ended up bitterly disillusioned and angry.
I just don't see how he gets it. He's superficially plausible and even likeable at times (date rape "jokes" aside) but he isn't an original thinker and doesn't have a case that Tory members are likely to find particularly compelling as leader.
Cleverly is essentially the "potter on and hope Labour f*** up" candidate and, while that might not actually be an awful strategy, it isn't going to win a leadership election. Particularly in circumstances where a huge number of Tory members feel bruised, have lost their local MP, and are angry with the universe. They want answers, even if they are essentially bullshit answers.
The first bit's easy enough- I can see him hoovering up the non-nutter MPs as Stride and Tugendhat drop out. That gets him into the final round; 40 MPs will be enough for that.
Then it gets harder- he probably has to hope that his rival on the right says something really silly, like Leadsom did. Which isn't impossible.
The trouble is that the 'non-nutter' MPs are also known as the careerist MPs. They'll attach themselves to whomever they think will win.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Trivia question - name the song that knocked Bohemian Rhapsody off the top spot that shared a lyric (a word/phrase) with the song.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Trivia question - name the song that knocked Bohemian Rhapsody off the top spot that shared a lyric (a word/phrase) with the song.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Otherwise- somewhat more students since the mid 90s, somewhat fewer homekeepers, but most of the numbers pretty stable.
Not particularly surprising given the known sequelae of covid. A bit less than a million extra implies about 1-2% occurrence of long covid which isn't that amazing, especially if the data are a little old.
Otherwise- somewhat more students since the mid 90s, somewhat fewer homekeepers, but most of the numbers pretty stable.
Go back a generation or two earlier and the proportion of 'homekeepers' would be much higher, and few eyelids would be batted. It was just the way things were.
Yet somehow we're now expecting a far higher % of working age people to make up an expanded workforce, despite all the progress made by technology and automation. And retirement ages keep going up, further increasing the pool of those expected to participate.
At a macro level, absolutely none of this makes any sense at all if you stop and think about it for one moment.
If something like Moore's Law had even vaguely applied to human beings and their usefulness the norm would be a 2-3 day standard working week with retirement at 55.
The game feels spectacularly rigged.
It is rigged. The politicians prioritise growth (an economic metric) and consider the people as mere components to that end. This is why they keep importing more and more people: to increase growth, not make people happy. A society restructured to make its people happy would be very different.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Trivia question - name the song that knocked Bohemian Rhapsody off the top spot that shared a lyric (a word/phrase) with the song.
Mamma Mia (let me go et)?
EDIT: Ah beaten to it. No prizes for me - the winner takes it all.
Otherwise- somewhat more students since the mid 90s, somewhat fewer homekeepers, but most of the numbers pretty stable.
Go back a generation or two earlier and the proportion of 'homekeepers' would be much higher, and few eyelids would be batted. It was just the way things were.
Yet somehow we're now expecting a far higher % of working age people to make up an expanded workforce, despite all the progress made by technology and automation. And retirement ages keep going up, further increasing the pool of those expected to participate.
At a macro level, absolutely none of this makes any sense at all if you stop and think about it for one moment.
If something like Moore's Law had even vaguely applied to human beings and their usefulness the norm would be a 2-3 day standard working week with retirement at 55.
The game feels spectacularly rigged.
It is rigged. The politicians prioritise growth (an economic metric) and consider the people as mere components to that end. This is why they keep importing more and more people: to increase growth, not make people happy. A society restructured to make its people happy would be very different.
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Trivia question - name the song that knocked Bohemian Rhapsody off the top spot that shared a lyric (a word/phrase) with the song.
Mamma Mia (let me go et)?
EDIT: Ah beaten to it. No prizes for me - the winner takes it all.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Trivia question - name the song that knocked Bohemian Rhapsody off the top spot that shared a lyric (a word/phrase) with the song.
I googled. Mamma Mia/ABBA?
What is the bloody point in cheating, Googling and ruining an amusing quiz for everyone else? Are you six years old? Do you feel clever?
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Like a fearsome T Rex becoming a chicken?
Always that possibility. Better than going extinct, however
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Are you suggesting that it will be several million years before they evolve into a bunch of boobys and dodos?
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Are you suggesting that it will be several million years before they evolve into a bunch of boobys and dodos?
Oh, I love the hubris.
I really hope the Tories are back in office soon, and make you cry.
Liz Kendall's response makes me wonder if she's trying to be the village idiot of Leicester:
“This is yet more evidence of the dire inheritance we face, with millions of people denied the support they need to get work and get on at work, harming their opportunities and holding back growth.
“This government will deliver the change the country is crying out for by making work pay, transforming skills, overhauling jobcentres and giving local areas the power they need to drive jobs and growth.”
Perhaps someone should explain to Kendall that she'll be judged on results and there's far more scope for unemployment to rise than fall and for real wage increases to fall than rise.
Rachel Reeves was sensibly more moderate if somewhat authoritarian:
“Today’s figures show there is more to do in supporting people into employment because if you can work, you should work.
“This will be part of my Budget later in the year where I will be making difficult decisions on spending, welfare and tax to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of our country better-off.”
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Our Labour force participation is 10th highest of those with records, beaten only by Japan, NZ, and some North European countries. Significantly better than the OECD average.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Our Labour force participation is 10th highest of those with records, beaten only by Japan, NZ, and some North European countries. Significantly better than the OECD average.
Liz Kendall's response makes me wonder if she's trying to be the village idiot of Leicester:
“This is yet more evidence of the dire inheritance we face, with millions of people denied the support they need to get work and get on at work, harming their opportunities and holding back growth.
“This government will deliver the change the country is crying out for by making work pay, transforming skills, overhauling jobcentres and giving local areas the power they need to drive jobs and growth.”
Perhaps someone should explain to Kendall that she'll be judged on results and there's far more scope for unemployment to rise than fall and for real wage increases to fall than rise.
Rachel Reeves was sensibly more moderate if somewhat authoritarian:
“Today’s figures show there is more to do in supporting people into employment because if you can work, you should work.
“This will be part of my Budget later in the year where I will be making difficult decisions on spending, welfare and tax to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of our country better-off.”
AP (via Seattle Times) - Judge rules against RFK Jr. in fight to be on New York’s ballot, says he is not a state resident
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — A judge ruled Monday that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name should not appear on New York’s ballot, saying that he falsely claimed a New York residence on nominating petitions despite living in California.
The scion of the famed Democratic political dynasty vowed to appeal, dismissing the ruling as partisan. If the judge’s decision is upheld, it would not only keep Kennedy off the ballot in New York but could also lead to challenges in other states where he used an address in New York City’s suburbs to gather signatures. . . .
The ruling came after a North Carolina judge decided earlier Monday that Kennedy can remain on that state’s ballot following a separate challenge on different grounds.
In New York, Judge Christina Ryba concluded in her 34-page decision that the rented bedroom Kennedy claimed as his residence in New York wasn’t a “bona fide and legitimate residence, but merely a ‘sham’ address that he assumed for the purpose of maintaining his voter registration” and furthering his political candidacy. . . .
Kennedy, in his statement after the ruling, reiterated that he provided evidence New York has been his primary residence since 1964, including that he pays state taxes, has a law practice in the state and holds a driver’s license, falconry license and other recreational licenses in New York.
Ryba had dismissed such arguments in her ruling as “immaterial” without proof of physical presence at a specific address where he intends to live permanently. . . .
SSI - Aged PBers may recall that, when Mitt Romney first ran for Governor of Massachusetts, his residency in the great Bay State was challenged on grounds that he'd claimed a tax exemption for his Utah sky lodge as a Utah resident (or at least his agent did that for him). However, the challenged failed precisely because MR demonstated a history of continuous, actual habitation in Mass. for years prior to filing for office.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Our Labour force participation is 10th highest of those with records, beaten only by Japan, NZ, and some North European countries. Significantly better than the OECD average.
Almost an inverse correlation with fertility rate too.
Indeed, so why are we celebrating the countries that are failing to replace their own populations?
Notably communities in Britain with lower female employment have higher fertility rates. British Somalis for example. Not a community noted for its wealth or highly paid employment either.
I know there's a vice-captain, but they should instead hold a team contest to see who can Stoke out the hardest, be the Stokiest Stokes they can be. It's the only way they can win.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
Prison is punishment, but it shouldn't only be about punishment, if we want to actually make a dent in recidivism (obviously getting it to zero is impossible).
Whatever we are currently doing now is not working, creative solutions are clearly needed.
I'd be surprised if it's him. Although I can understand why he'd be the choice of non-conservatives out of himself, Badenoch and Jenrick.
Pretty sure it will be Jenrick
He's the candidate about which I know the least, which may not be a bad thing, but I struggle to see anything that would make him a standout leader and haven't seen any examples of serious Libertarian credentials.
My pick would be Cleverly or Badenoch, probably because I've met them and know a bit more about them than the others, which adds a 'human' element which is important to me.
But I left the party about 18 months ago so won't have a vote this time anyway.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
Agreed - although I would note that this is pretty much the solution that every justice minister comes up with.
But it seems there is a really profound problem. 'Tough sentences' is seen as a popular policy with no consequence (sometimes referred to as 'warehousing' in discussions). But the costs are actually enormous.
I'd be surprised if it's him. Although I can understand why he'd be the choice of non-conservatives out of himself, Badenoch and Jenrick.
Pretty sure it will be Jenrick
He seems to be the one to beat, and I'm OK with it.
My order of likelihood
Jenrick Badenoch Cleverly
(it will surely be one of those but I will continue)
Tugendhat Stride Patel
The question to ask is which two will get the backing of MPs to get to the final two. My guess (and I am not desperately well informed on this) is that it will be two from Jenrick, Cleverly and Tugendhat. Badenoch does very well among the members but I'm not sure she gets to the final two.
On this basis, I reckon Cleverly is the value bet.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
THis was interesting, if with a sting in the tail about the policies of the previous UKG.
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Are you suggesting that it will be several million years before they evolve into a bunch of boobys and dodos?
Oh, I love the hubris.
I really hope the Tories are back in office soon, and make you cry.
Like depriving prisoners in jail of reading matter.
I just don't see how he gets it. He's superficially plausible and even likeable at times (date rape "jokes" aside) but he isn't an original thinker and doesn't have a case that Tory members are likely to find particularly compelling as leader.
Cleverly is essentially the "potter on and hope Labour f*** up" candidate and, while that might not actually be an awful strategy, it isn't going to win a leadership election. Particularly in circumstances where a huge number of Tory members feel bruised, have lost their local MP, and are angry with the universe. They want answers, even if they are essentially bullshit answers.
The first bit's easy enough- I can see him hoovering up the non-nutter MPs as Stride and Tugendhat drop out. That gets him into the final round; 40 MPs will be enough for that.
Then it gets harder- he probably has to hope that his rival on the right says something really silly, like Leadsom did. Which isn't impossible.
The trouble is that the 'non-nutter' MPs are qalso known as the careerist MPs. They'll attach themselves to whomever they think will win.
Given the Conservatives are two steps away from extinction, careerists invested in keeping the show on the road might be a little useful.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
Timpson has a great attitude, we need more like him.
Getting a job is top of the list of reasons for not ending up back inside.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
What I'm scared of: The Russians use nukes on their own soil (as old Soviet nuclear doctrine permitted). We can't exactly respond to them effectively using their own fist to punch themselves. But the level of civilian panic in the West (think how excitable Leon gets, multiply it) plus the market reaction in the West - would be a weapon of mass chaos.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
I'd be surprised if it's him. Although I can understand why he'd be the choice of non-conservatives out of himself, Badenoch and Jenrick.
Pretty sure it will be Jenrick
He seems to be the one to beat, and I'm OK with it.
My order of likelihood
Jenrick Badenoch Cleverly
(it will surely be one of those but I will continue)
Tugendhat Stride Patel
Seems a not unreasonable assessment. Jenrick is the one gold-plated dud and will be following in the honoured tradition of IDS and Truss. He'll very likely be no-confidenced before the end of the parliament. The sensible choice would be Cleverly who is easily the most senior and "prime ministerial" eith the others given a chance to prove themselves as members of his shadow cabinet.
I'd be surprised if it's him. Although I can understand why he'd be the choice of non-conservatives out of himself, Badenoch and Jenrick.
Pretty sure it will be Jenrick
He seems to be the one to beat, and I'm OK with it.
My order of likelihood
Jenrick Badenoch Cleverly
(it will surely be one of those but I will continue)
Tugendhat Stride Patel
Seems a not unreasonable assessment. Jenrick is the one gold-plated dud and will be following in the honoured tradition of IDS and Truss. He'll very likely be no-confidenced before the end of the parliament. The sensible choice would be Cleverly who is easily the most senior and "prime ministerial" eith the others given a chance to prove themselves as members of his shadow cabinet.
Jenrick seems like he's offering the cleanest break, which will either work and they'll be rewarded, or it won't and it will be an important part of the rebuilding process.
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Are you suggesting that it will be several million years before they evolve into a bunch of boobys and dodos?
Oh, I love the hubris.
I really hope the Tories are back in office soon, and make you cry.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Our Labour force participation is 10th highest of those with records, beaten only by Japan, NZ, and some North European countries. Significantly better than the OECD average.
Pretty much! Not sure about Japan on that, but otherwise a good correlation.
Worth noting too that we have significant employment beyond retirement too. Not everyone wants to retire, and some cannot afford to.
in my view Japan has an unhealthy attitude towards work and careers, which leads to dropouts, burnouts, breakdowns and suicides. Before you even come to the pressure put on kids to do well in the education system so they can secure their place in world of employment, as if nothing else matters.
Happiness is really about finding your own optimal point on the spectrum between 'Work to Live' and 'Live to Work', at any given stage of life. Forcing a natural slacker into a high-pressure career or making a workoholic retire when they don't want to is equally unhelpful to the individual.
Roughly: 2.7 million students 1.7 million looking after family/home 0.2 million temporary sick 2.8 million long term sick 0.03 million discouraged 1 million retired 1 million other
I'd be fascinated to know what the "Other" category covers but there you go.
How to get some of these back into employment preferably with more carrot than stick?
2.8m long term sick is the obvious standout (perhaps it always has been). However is our labour force participation rate that different to other countries. And I know from family experience that these things overlap. For instance long term sick caring for relatives.
Our Labour force participation is 10th highest of those with records, beaten only by Japan, NZ, and some North European countries. Significantly better than the OECD average.
Almost an inverse correlation with fertility rate too.
Indeed, so why are we celebrating the countries that are failing to replace their own populations?
Notably communities in Britain with lower female employment have higher fertility rates. British Somalis for example. Not a community noted for its wealth or highly paid employment either.
Oh it’s easy when you’re on benefits, but really really difficult when you’re just above that level.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
THis was interesting, if with a sting in the tail about the policies of the previous UKG.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
Timpson has a great attitude, we need more like him.
Getting a job is top of the list of reasons for not ending up back inside.
It's startling how many defendants are from 'no fixed abode'.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
Presumably China says no? Also the US is credibly threatening to respond by joining the war with conventional weapons.
Well they will find regular employment and credit rating significantly worse with a criminal record.
The problem here is that actually, the problem becomes socialised; IE the stay in jail is paid for out of 'general taxation' (circa £100k), then the stay in jail is so long they have no future afterwards, so it just means they probably get ill or something, and then clog up the NHS, or keep going back in to crime, so more police/jail time. If the structure is such that these people don't then have the ability to get a job, a house, start a family etc, I am not sure where they are left. I would welcome your solutions to this @foxy as one of the more wise/smarter posters on this website and I am sure that you can see the problem.
Oh absolutely. They have trapped themselves into a downward spiral of jail, homelessness, broken relationships and unemployment.
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
Timpson has a great attitude, we need more like him.
Getting a job is top of the list of reasons for not ending up back inside.
It's startling how many defendants are from 'no fixed abode'.
I'd be surprised if it's him. Although I can understand why he'd be the choice of non-conservatives out of himself, Badenoch and Jenrick.
Pretty sure it will be Jenrick
He seems to be the one to beat, and I'm OK with it.
My order of likelihood
Jenrick Badenoch Cleverly
(it will surely be one of those but I will continue)
Tugendhat Stride Patel
Seems a not unreasonable assessment. Jenrick is the one gold-plated dud and will be following in the honoured tradition of IDS and Truss. He'll very likely be no-confidenced before the end of the parliament. The sensible choice would be Cleverly who is easily the most senior and "prime ministerial" eith the others given a chance to prove themselves as members of his shadow cabinet.
Jenrick is a masterful blend of nasty, self serving and incompetent. He's the obvious choice to lead the Conservatives.
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Are you suggesting that it will be several million years before they evolve into a bunch of boobys and dodos?
Oh, I love the hubris.
I really hope the Tories are back in office soon, and make you cry.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
What I'm scared of: The Russians use nukes on their own soil (as old Soviet nuclear doctrine permitted). We can't exactly respond to them effectively using their own fist to punch themselves. But the level of civilian panic in the West (think how excitable Leon gets, multiply it) plus the market reaction in the West - would be a weapon of mass chaos.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
Putin going for nuclear release on his own soil brings into play two other possibilities
1) this triggers the “fuck this shit” moment in someone in his inner circle. And the push him out of a window. In his bunker 18 stories below ground. 2) it cracks the general Russian belief in his leadership. 3) it means delegating and releasing tactical nuclear weapons to local commanders. Which is trusting them a lot. See 1) 4) related to 3) is the issue of where to strike. Contrary to the movies nukes don’t eliminate everything. A couple of miles from a small tac nuke and you survive. So unless you are aiming accurately at a specific target, you risk missing. Or only hitting a tiny part of the offensive. So, you might need to use a Big Weapon…..
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
Presumably China says no? Also the US is credibly threatening to respond by joining the war with conventional weapons.
The China intervention is a possibility, although @kyf_100's scenario is worrying me.
I suspect that Russia were hoping Trump would do a 'deal' to end the conflict (ie allowing them to bank the gains and freeze the conflict) which is looking less likely now.
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Are you suggesting that it will be several million years before they evolve into a bunch of boobys and dodos?
Oh, I love the hubris.
I really hope the Tories are back in office soon, and make you cry.
Labour 411 seats Tories 121 seats
With a lower share of the voting age population than Michael Foot.
One of the most remarkable aspects of the last government was Badenoch's clear disdain for her main government jobs as SoS for Business and Trade / President of the Board of Trade. Something like 70% of her statements to parliament concerned her subsidiary role of Minister for Women and Equalities (and even then she concentrated on an, erm, extremely narrow subset of her brief).
She made no other significant contributions to the Tory campaign at a national level. Perhaps she was too busy defending her previously-safe seat of North-West Essex - but with a swing against her of 22% (almost twice the national average), it's hard to see her campaign as a success.
She's never shown any particular aptitude for leadership. She's not a great campaigner. She's certainly not a team player. She's demonstrated no strategic vision or tactical nous.
The Tories would be mad to pick her. She'd drag them onto Farage's pitch, and he would almost certainly prove to be a much better player than she is.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
What I'm scared of: The Russians use nukes on their own soil (as old Soviet nuclear doctrine permitted). We can't exactly respond to them effectively using their own fist to punch themselves. But the level of civilian panic in the West (think how excitable Leon gets, multiply it) plus the market reaction in the West - would be a weapon of mass chaos.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
Putin going for nuclear release on his own soil brings into play two other possibilities
1) this triggers the “fuck this shit” moment in someone in his inner circle. And the push him out of a window. In his bunker 18 stories below ground. 2) it cracks the general Russian belief in his leadership. 3) it means delegating and releasing tactical nuclear weapons to local commanders. Which is trusting them a lot. See 1) 4) related to 3) is the issue of where to strike. Contrary to the movies nukes don’t eliminate everything. A couple of miles from a small tac nuke and you survive. So unless you are aiming accurately at a specific target, you risk missing. Or only hitting a tiny part of the offensive. So, you might need to use a Big Weapon…..
For some reason, President Putin of Russia and President Clark of the Earth Alliance are one and the same in my head sometimes.
I imagine if he can push the proverbial button from his office, he would, but as you say, in the real world there is a chain of command that would require a lot of other people to be prepared to carry out the order.
A world where he issues the order is possible, a world where he issues the order and gets thrown out of the nearest window is more likely...
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
I thought the interview was surprisingly interesting. Particularly Scaramucci's observation that the Trump/MAGA project is about superceding Americsn democracy with a governing model based on oligarchy. Makes a lot of sense. Big shots running the country on behalf of themselves without constitutional restraint. Hence the support of Musk, fascination with Putin, and stuffing the Supreme Court with yesmen. It's a credible way of interpreting Trumpism.
Hardly original thougth by Scaramucci. And his (alleged?) forecast that Trump's gonna drop out of 2024 POTUS race is hedgehog scat.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
Disagree with you there. I find him insightful on Trump as well as articulate and entertaining.
Possibly. But will he do the fandango? Thunderbolts and lightning, very very frightening me...
Trivia question - name the song that knocked Bohemian Rhapsody off the top spot that shared a lyric (a word/phrase) with the song.
I googled. Mamma Mia/ABBA?
That's a fail; you didn't need to fess that you googled it.
The Welsh are so insular, it's why nobody likes them.
‘Unnecessary’ English place names covered up on Welsh road signs
White Eagle activists on a mission to ‘deanglicise’ country
English place names have been covered up on some Welsh road signs by a group which says it wants to “deanglicise” the country.
The Mudiad Eryr Wen, (White Eagle Movement), this week claimed responsibility for daubing green paint across road signs on the A525, between St Asaph and Denbigh in North Wales.
Non-Welsh-speaking motorists navigating by street signs would have to negotiate the five miles between Llanelwy and Dinbych on their own as a result of the spray-painting.
“Deanglicise Wales!” the Eryr Wen group posted on social media along with pictures of the signs they had defaced.
“Imposed and unnecessary English place names have been removed from signage across Sir Ddinbych. Decolonise our geography!”
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
I thought the interview was surprisingly interesting. Particularly Scaramucci's observation that the Trump/MAGA project is about superceding Americsn democracy with a governing model based on oligarchy. Makes a lot of sense. Big shots running the country on behalf of themselves without constitutional restraint. Hence the support of Musk, fascination with Putin, and stuffing the Supreme Court with yesmen. It's a credible way of interpreting Trumpism.
Hardly original thougth by Scaramucci. And his (alleged?) forecast that Trump's gonna drop out of 2024 POTUS race is hedgehog scat.
I find Scaramucci very entertaining on The Rest is Politics US. Sure, his opinions may be worthless* but his delivery is great.
(*I don't think they are worthless though - he knows Trump well and is not afraid to tell it as he sees it. A lot of what he says about Trump makes sense and is also echoed in Mary Trump's book Too Much and Never Enough, which is also very good.)
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
What I'm scared of: The Russians use nukes on their own soil (as old Soviet nuclear doctrine permitted). We can't exactly respond to them effectively using their own fist to punch themselves. But the level of civilian panic in the West (think how excitable Leon gets, multiply it) plus the market reaction in the West - would be a weapon of mass chaos.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
Putin going for nuclear release on his own soil brings into play two other possibilities
1) this triggers the “fuck this shit” moment in someone in his inner circle. And the push him out of a window. In his bunker 18 stories below ground. 2) it cracks the general Russian belief in his leadership. 3) it means delegating and releasing tactical nuclear weapons to local commanders. Which is trusting them a lot. See 1) 4) related to 3) is the issue of where to strike. Contrary to the movies nukes don’t eliminate everything. A couple of miles from a small tac nuke and you survive. So unless you are aiming accurately at a specific target, you risk missing. Or only hitting a tiny part of the offensive. So, you might need to use a Big Weapon…..
For some reason, President Putin of Russia and President Clark of the Earth Alliance are one and the same in my head sometimes.
I imagine if he can push the proverbial button from his office, he would, but as you say, in the real world there is a chain of command that would require a lot of other people to be prepared to carry out the order.
A world where he issues the order is possible, a world where he issues the order and gets thrown out of the nearest window is more likely...
There’s been several times that the official big red deconfliction phones between Washington and Moscow have been used, and more than one occasion on which the officials managed to avert a catastrophe ahead of the politicians.
Notion that Scdaramucci is some seer, let alone a quasi-credible pundit, is laughable.
He proved he was an idiot while working FOR Donald Trump . . . for about 15 minutes or close to it. Just because he'a a Trump critic NOW does NOT change that basic truth.
He's trying to extend his 15-minutes of (in)fame into a freaking cottage industry. WIth assists from (non-deplorable) gulibles
I thought the interview was surprisingly interesting. Particularly Scaramucci's observation that the Trump/MAGA project is about superceding Americsn democracy with a governing model based on oligarchy. Makes a lot of sense. Big shots running the country on behalf of themselves without constitutional restraint. Hence the support of Musk, fascination with Putin, and stuffing the Supreme Court with yesmen. It's a credible way of interpreting Trumpism.
Hardly original thougth by Scaramucci. And his (alleged?) forecast that Trump's gonna drop out of 2024 POTUS race is hedgehog scat.
I find Scaramucci very entertaining on The Rest is Politics US. Sure, his opinions may be worthless* but his delivery is great.
(*I don't think they are worthless though - he knows Trump well and is not afraid to tell it as he sees it. A lot of what he says about Trump makes sense and is also echoed in Mary Trump's book Too Much and Never Enough, which is also very good.)
Mooch reads PB, he did a podcast with Keiran a while back.
One of the most remarkable aspects of the last government was Badenoch's clear disdain for her main government jobs as SoS for Business and Trade / President of the Board of Trade. Something like 70% of her statements to parliament concerned her subsidiary role of Minister for Women and Equalities (and even then she concentrated on an, erm, extremely narrow subset of her brief).
She made no other significant contributions to the Tory campaign at a national level. Perhaps she was too busy defending her previously-safe seat of North-West Essex - but with a swing against her of 22% (almost twice the national average), it's hard to see her campaign as a success.
She's never shown any particular aptitude for leadership. She's not a great campaigner. She's certainly not a team player. She's demonstrated no strategic vision or tactical nous.
The Tories would be mad to pick her. She'd drag them onto Farage's pitch, and he would almost certainly prove to be a much better player than she is.
Perhaps Kemi was following Ronald Reagan's suggestion of "Don't just do something, stand there".
An active Business Secretary can do more harm than good.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
What I'm scared of: The Russians use nukes on their own soil (as old Soviet nuclear doctrine permitted). We can't exactly respond to them effectively using their own fist to punch themselves. But the level of civilian panic in the West (think how excitable Leon gets, multiply it) plus the market reaction in the West - would be a weapon of mass chaos.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
Putin going for nuclear release on his own soil brings into play two other possibilities
1) this triggers the “fuck this shit” moment in someone in his inner circle. And the push him out of a window. In his bunker 18 stories below ground. 2) it cracks the general Russian belief in his leadership. 3) it means delegating and releasing tactical nuclear weapons to local commanders. Which is trusting them a lot. See 1) 4) related to 3) is the issue of where to strike. Contrary to the movies nukes don’t eliminate everything. A couple of miles from a small tac nuke and you survive. So unless you are aiming accurately at a specific target, you risk missing. Or only hitting a tiny part of the offensive. So, you might need to use a Big Weapon…..
Tactical nukes are essentially pointless weapons. Not big enough to make a difference without tremendous amounts of planning (and hence strategy...), and too large to be ignored and not harm your own side. And C&C of tactical nukes is difficult.
Which is why tactical nukes have essentially died a death cf strategic.
Surely it's good for the Tories that no one has a clue or gives a fuck about their next leader?
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
Are you suggesting that it will be several million years before they evolve into a bunch of boobys and dodos?
Oh, I love the hubris.
I really hope the Tories are back in office soon, and make you cry.
Labour 411 seats Tories 121 seats
With a lower share of the voting age population than Michael Foot.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
What I'm scared of: The Russians use nukes on their own soil (as old Soviet nuclear doctrine permitted). We can't exactly respond to them effectively using their own fist to punch themselves. But the level of civilian panic in the West (think how excitable Leon gets, multiply it) plus the market reaction in the West - would be a weapon of mass chaos.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
Putin going for nuclear release on his own soil brings into play two other possibilities
1) this triggers the “fuck this shit” moment in someone in his inner circle. And the push him out of a window. In his bunker 18 stories below ground. 2) it cracks the general Russian belief in his leadership. 3) it means delegating and releasing tactical nuclear weapons to local commanders. Which is trusting them a lot. See 1) 4) related to 3) is the issue of where to strike. Contrary to the movies nukes don’t eliminate everything. A couple of miles from a small tac nuke and you survive. So unless you are aiming accurately at a specific target, you risk missing. Or only hitting a tiny part of the offensive. So, you might need to use a Big Weapon…..
For some reason, President Putin of Russia and President Clark of the Earth Alliance are one and the same in my head sometimes.
I imagine if he can push the proverbial button from his office, he would, but as you say, in the real world there is a chain of command that would require a lot of other people to be prepared to carry out the order.
A world where he issues the order is possible, a world where he issues the order and gets thrown out of the nearest window is more likely...
If you enter 'Kursk' or 'Kursk oblast' into the search and got to 'latest', you get a stream of posters with similar message spamming links to p0rn; sometimes the same posters within a few seconds. With my tinfoil hat on, I'd say this was a Russian attempt to drown out info on the Ukrainian operation.
An example: "Ukrainian shit propaganda is posting another Photoshop peremoga claiming that they have reached Lgov in Kursk Oblast. But this time it's so bad, that they were too lazy to even lookup GOST (standards protocol) on the road signs in Russia or how the actual sign looks like. 🤡" With a link to P0rn.
I don't get it on other keywords, e.g. Trump.
So much or Musky Baby sorting out the bots.
Oh, and for any poster who raises their hand and faints at my use of 'Musky Baby': LOL.
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
The thing I find odd about this situation is that there is no talk about nuclear escalation. I had the working assumption that the conflict was contrived and could not be won as Russia has 'red lines' namely the threat of nuclear escalation which seemed to emerge as soon as Ukraine started to succeed, but it is very curious now as to why they are not.
It’s because they can’t credibly say that any more, unless they actually intend to. The nuclear threats were always a bluff, and they knew that. Because they absolutely know that the US can actually nuke Moscow within minutes.
What I'm scared of: The Russians use nukes on their own soil (as old Soviet nuclear doctrine permitted). We can't exactly respond to them effectively using their own fist to punch themselves. But the level of civilian panic in the West (think how excitable Leon gets, multiply it) plus the market reaction in the West - would be a weapon of mass chaos.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
Putin going for nuclear release on his own soil brings into play two other possibilities
1) this triggers the “fuck this shit” moment in someone in his inner circle. And the push him out of a window. In his bunker 18 stories below ground. 2) it cracks the general Russian belief in his leadership. 3) it means delegating and releasing tactical nuclear weapons to local commanders. Which is trusting them a lot. See 1) 4) related to 3) is the issue of where to strike. Contrary to the movies nukes don’t eliminate everything. A couple of miles from a small tac nuke and you survive. So unless you are aiming accurately at a specific target, you risk missing. Or only hitting a tiny part of the offensive. So, you might need to use a Big Weapon…..
For some reason, President Putin of Russia and President Clark of the Earth Alliance are one and the same in my head sometimes.
I imagine if he can push the proverbial button from his office, he would, but as you say, in the real world there is a chain of command that would require a lot of other people to be prepared to carry out the order.
A world where he issues the order is possible, a world where he issues the order and gets thrown out of the nearest window is more likely...
The end of Red Storm Rising…
I listened to RSR a year or two ago, and it's still a blooming great book. It's a shame Clancy went increasingly cuckoo as time went on.
If you enter 'Kursk' or 'Kursk oblast' into the search and got to 'latest', you get a stream of posters with similar message spamming links to p0rn; sometimes the same posters within a few seconds. With my tinfoil hat on, I'd say this was a Russian attempt to drown out info on the Ukrainian operation.
An example: "Ukrainian shit propaganda is posting another Photoshop peremoga claiming that they have reached Lgov in Kursk Oblast. But this time it's so bad, that they were too lazy to even lookup GOST (standards protocol) on the road signs in Russia or how the actual sign looks like. 🤡" With a link to P0rn.
I don't get it on other keywords, e.g. Trump.
Haha yes. There’s a whole load of Russian bots revealing themselves to Twitter. Good good.
I just don't see how he gets it. He's superficially plausible and even likeable at times (date rape "jokes" aside) but he isn't an original thinker and doesn't have a case that Tory members are likely to find particularly compelling as leader.
Cleverly is essentially the "potter on and hope Labour f*** up" candidate and, while that might not actually be an awful strategy, it isn't going to win a leadership election. Particularly in circumstances where a huge number of Tory members feel bruised, have lost their local MP, and are angry with the universe. They want answers, even if they are essentially bullshit answers.
The first bit's easy enough- I can see him hoovering up the non-nutter MPs as Stride and Tugendhat drop out. That gets him into the final round; 40 MPs will be enough for that.
Then it gets harder- he probably has to hope that his rival on the right says something really silly, like Leadsom did. Which isn't impossible.
The trouble is that the 'non-nutter' MPs are qalso known as the careerist MPs. They'll attach themselves to whomever they think will win.
Given the Conservatives are two steps away from extinction, careerists invested in keeping the show on the road might be a little useful.
Like they did by knifing Boris and installing Sunak? Yeh OK.
Comments
"After you cast your vote for president, can other people check whom you voted for online?
That’s the question that sparked a thread on X with more than 8 million views in which 39-year-old Olivia Howell told her followers that no, their husbands cannot find out whom they voted for."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/12/voting-privacy-election-2024-spouse-online/
Go back a generation or two earlier and the proportion of 'homekeepers' would be much higher, and few eyelids would be batted. It was just the way things were.
Yet somehow we're now expecting a far higher % of working age people to make up an expanded workforce, despite all the progress made by technology and automation. And retirement ages keep going up, further increasing the pool of those expected to participate.
At a macro level, absolutely none of this makes any sense at all if you stop and think about it for one moment.
If something like Moore's Law had even vaguely applied to human beings and their usefulness the norm would be a 2-3 day standard working week with retirement at 55.
The game feels spectacularly rigged.
Then it gets harder- he probably has to hope that his rival on the right says something really silly, like Leadsom did. Which isn't impossible.
Stephen Colbert, interviewing CNN’s Caitlin Collins.
Colbert: “I know you guys are objective, just reporting the news over there” [audience laughs]
Collins: "Was that supposed to be a laugh line?"
Colbert: "I guess it is."
https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1823394155260719557
Worth noting too that we have significant employment beyond retirement too. Not everyone wants to retire, and some cannot afford to.
Scaramucci wasn't in the building long enough to form real insights into Trump and his operation. So he goes on and presents the well worn criticism, plus a flash of "Trump may well do [random thing]" to keep the liberals excited.
You want actual insight into the flaws of the operation and Trump personally, ask the man who sacked Scaramucci - John Kelly. He was a serious figure who was there for 18 months, did a genuine job of work trying and failing to change the culture of it, and ended up bitterly disillusioned and angry.
You think the electorate could cope with two?
EDIT: Ah beaten to it. No prizes for me - the winner takes it all.
Forgot how good.
Unemployment 4.2%
Inflation 2.0%
Real regular pay 3.4%
Compared with what the previous Labour government left behind in 2010:
Unemployment 8.0%
Inflation 3.7%
Real regular pay -2.0%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7g7/mm23
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kai9/lms
This is what they want. A fresh start. A blank slate. A new face and a new name. It means you can put all the bad vibes and associations neatly behind you. Then you can rapidly evolve and soar away anew, like dinosaurs becoming birds
https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1822957775921492440
“And not a word about the nuclear bomb. This situation in Kursk is an excellent example for the West that if Russia is dealt a serious blow, talk of escalation and the Red Button ceases. During the offensive on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces threw their most combat-ready units into battle, choosing the weakest point of the Russian border for the attack.”
Tonight is about cocktails
I really hope the Tories are back in office soon, and make you cry.
Jenrick
Badenoch
Cleverly
(it will surely be one of those but I will continue)
Tugendhat
Stride
Patel
“This is yet more evidence of the dire inheritance we face, with millions of people denied the support they need to get work and get on at work, harming their opportunities and holding back growth.
“This government will deliver the change the country is crying out for by making work pay, transforming skills, overhauling jobcentres and giving local areas the power they need to drive jobs and growth.”
Perhaps someone should explain to Kendall that she'll be judged on results and there's far more scope for unemployment to rise than fall and for real wage increases to fall than rise.
Rachel Reeves was sensibly more moderate if somewhat authoritarian:
“Today’s figures show there is more to do in supporting people into employment because if you can work, you should work.
“This will be part of my Budget later in the year where I will be making difficult decisions on spending, welfare and tax to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of our country better-off.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/aug/13/uk-unemployment-rate-drops-unexpectedly-wage-growth-grocery-inflation-business-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-66bafac48f083e5b7b4845c7#block-66bafac48f083e5b7b4845c7
BlackBeltBarrister"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5flsyh2gwtU
There needs to be much more emphasis on rehabilitation, education and training in prison, coupled with psychological support to get then off drugs etc.
And a less punitive approach to employing ex-cons. Timpson is the one for this.
Right, that's me done. Time for the slippers. This is not a workhouse.
AP (via Seattle Times) - Judge rules against RFK Jr. in fight to be on New York’s ballot, says he is not a state resident
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — A judge ruled Monday that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name should not appear on New York’s ballot, saying that he falsely claimed a New York residence on nominating petitions despite living in California.
The scion of the famed Democratic political dynasty vowed to appeal, dismissing the ruling as partisan. If the judge’s decision is upheld, it would not only keep Kennedy off the ballot in New York but could also lead to challenges in other states where he used an address in New York City’s suburbs to gather signatures. . . .
The ruling came after a North Carolina judge decided earlier Monday that Kennedy can remain on that state’s ballot following a separate challenge on different grounds.
In New York, Judge Christina Ryba concluded in her 34-page decision that the rented bedroom Kennedy claimed as his residence in New York wasn’t a “bona fide and legitimate residence, but merely a ‘sham’ address that he assumed for the purpose of maintaining his voter registration” and furthering his political candidacy. . . .
Kennedy, in his statement after the ruling, reiterated that he provided evidence New York has been his primary residence since 1964, including that he pays state taxes, has a law practice in the state and holds a driver’s license, falconry license and other recreational licenses in New York.
Ryba had dismissed such arguments in her ruling as “immaterial” without proof of physical presence at a specific address where he intends to live permanently. . . .
SSI - Aged PBers may recall that, when Mitt Romney first ran for Governor of Massachusetts, his residency in the great Bay State was challenged on grounds that he'd claimed a tax exemption for his Utah sky lodge as a Utah resident (or at least his agent did that for him). However, the challenged failed precisely because MR demonstated a history of continuous, actual habitation in Mass. for years prior to filing for office.
Its a lot easier to find work and a career now than its was in the 1980s or the 1930s.
What people need is a useful skillset.
And useful skillsets are things that governments can help people acquire but cannot give away in the manner of a grade inflated education certificate.
Useful skillsets have to be earned through years of hard work.
Whatever we are currently doing now is not working, creative solutions are clearly needed.
He's the candidate about which I know the least, which may not be a bad thing, but I struggle to see anything that would make him a standout leader and haven't seen any examples of serious Libertarian credentials.
My pick would be Cleverly or Badenoch, probably because I've met them and know a bit more about them than the others, which adds a 'human' element which is important to me.
But I left the party about 18 months ago so won't have a vote this time anyway.
But it seems there is a really profound problem. 'Tough sentences' is seen as a popular policy with no consequence (sometimes referred to as 'warehousing' in discussions). But the costs are actually enormous.
On this basis, I reckon Cleverly is the value bet.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/article/2024/aug/11/the-young-offenders-system-worked-for-me-the-ex-convict-turned-chef
And not even being able to get a bank account!
Getting a job is top of the list of reasons for not ending up back inside.
I rate it as unlikely but non-zero. Especially if Putin starts running out of cards to play.
Tories 121 seats
in my view Japan has an unhealthy attitude towards work and careers, which leads to dropouts, burnouts, breakdowns and suicides. Before you even come to the pressure put on kids to do well in the education system so they can secure their place in world of employment, as if nothing else matters.
Happiness is really about finding your own optimal point on the spectrum between 'Work to Live' and 'Live to Work', at any given stage of life. Forcing a natural slacker into a high-pressure career or making a workoholic retire when they don't want to is equally unhelpful to the individual.
People need to find a purpose in life.
It's a large part of why fertility is down too.
https://x.com/TheAtlantic/status/1819006448866586797?t=dpxakji9Hr4tvZdlcURbYw&s=19
1) this triggers the “fuck this shit” moment in someone in his inner circle. And the push him out of a window. In his bunker 18 stories below ground.
2) it cracks the general Russian belief in his leadership.
3) it means delegating and releasing tactical nuclear weapons to local commanders. Which is trusting them a lot. See 1)
4) related to 3) is the issue of where to strike. Contrary to the movies nukes don’t eliminate everything. A couple of miles from a small tac nuke and you survive. So unless you are aiming accurately at a specific target, you risk missing. Or only hitting a tiny part of the offensive. So, you might need to use a Big Weapon…..
I suspect that Russia were hoping Trump would do a 'deal' to end the conflict (ie allowing them to bank the gains and freeze the conflict) which is looking less likely now.
"It's billed by his team as a significant speech. I have to say, as of yet, I don't quite see the significant part"
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1823367049785045495
One of the most remarkable aspects of the last government was Badenoch's clear disdain for her main government jobs as SoS for Business and Trade / President of the Board of Trade. Something like 70% of her statements to parliament concerned her subsidiary role of Minister for Women and Equalities (and even then she concentrated on an, erm, extremely narrow subset of her brief).
During the GE campaign, she went missing in action. She did only a single media round during the entire campaign, and that was widely regarded as being "trivial and unserious", bickering with interviewers when they asked her questions about anything outside of her preferred topic of whether trans people should be allowed to use public toilets.
She made no other significant contributions to the Tory campaign at a national level. Perhaps she was too busy defending her previously-safe seat of North-West Essex - but with a swing against her of 22% (almost twice the national average), it's hard to see her campaign as a success.
She's never shown any particular aptitude for leadership. She's not a great campaigner. She's certainly not a team player. She's demonstrated no strategic vision or tactical nous.
The Tories would be mad to pick her. She'd drag them onto Farage's pitch, and he would almost certainly prove to be a much better player than she is.
I imagine if he can push the proverbial button from his office, he would, but as you say, in the real world there is a chain of command that would require a lot of other people to be prepared to carry out the order.
A world where he issues the order is possible, a world where he issues the order and gets thrown out of the nearest window is more likely...
Who's there?
That's opposition for you.
‘Unnecessary’ English place names covered up on Welsh road signs
White Eagle activists on a mission to ‘deanglicise’ country
English place names have been covered up on some Welsh road signs by a group which says it wants to “deanglicise” the country.
The Mudiad Eryr Wen, (White Eagle Movement), this week claimed responsibility for daubing green paint across road signs on the A525, between St Asaph and Denbigh in North Wales.
Non-Welsh-speaking motorists navigating by street signs would have to negotiate the five miles between Llanelwy and Dinbych on their own as a result of the spray-painting.
“Deanglicise Wales!” the Eryr Wen group posted on social media along with pictures of the signs they had defaced.
“Imposed and unnecessary English place names have been removed from signage across Sir Ddinbych. Decolonise our geography!”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/13/english-place-names-covered-welsh-road-signs-denbigh-deface/
(*I don't think they are worthless though - he knows Trump well and is not afraid to tell it as he sees it. A lot of what he says about Trump makes sense and is also echoed in Mary Trump's book Too Much and Never Enough, which is also very good.)
An active Business Secretary can do more harm than good.
Which is why tactical nukes have essentially died a death cf strategic.
If you enter 'Kursk' or 'Kursk oblast' into the search and got to 'latest', you get a stream of posters with similar message spamming links to p0rn; sometimes the same posters within a few seconds. With my tinfoil hat on, I'd say this was a Russian attempt to drown out info on the Ukrainian operation.
An example:
"Ukrainian shit propaganda is posting another Photoshop peremoga claiming that they have reached Lgov in Kursk Oblast. But this time it's so bad, that they were too lazy to even lookup GOST (standards protocol) on the road signs in Russia or how the actual sign looks like. 🤡" With a link to P0rn.
I don't get it on other keywords, e.g. Trump.
So much or Musky Baby sorting out the bots.
Oh, and for any poster who raises their hand and faints at my use of 'Musky Baby': LOL.
For light relief my wife has crocheted our dog. Her first attempt at crocheting. I know - why?