How long can Thames Water hold out ? Yet another debt downgrade.
"Environment Secretary Steve Reed last week said the group remained “financially viable” and would not need to be nationalised.
Mr Reed added that there was “no need to have undue concerns at the moment”.
I cant help but think that will bite his arse in the coming months and Reeves will do he blame everyone but herself routine as she suddenly has to find a few billion more.
And while she does have a point on the behaviour the various owners, it does rather raise the question of why she's letting MaQuarie one of the villains of the piece take control of the nations gas grid. Clearly she hasnt been "learning the lessons"
Thames Water has looked doomed ever since interest rates went over about 1%. They were used as a source of capital and cheap debt by the owners as a way of monetising the income flow that came from their customers like they were gilts. The problem is that they got too greedy and the regulator was too stupid to spot the obvious risk, that that income flow was fixed by the margin they were allowed on their services, not by the rate of interest. As soon as the rate of interest increased the sustainable debt fell and the owners refused to pay it back, trying to blackmail the regulator into allowing additional charges instead.
It is a classic example of inept and incompetent regulation. Whether that is simply incompetence in the regulator or incompetence on the part of the people who set up the structure is a bit complicated but it is clear neither were fit for purpose.
Them and many many others.
The oil price is rocketing with the latest middle east goings on. You can forget interest rate cuts any time soon.
"Oil prices extend gains on Israel-Hamas fears, OPEC+ awaited.
Investing.com-- Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Thursday, extending a sharp rebound from the prior session as the killing of Hamas’ leader in Iran kept fears of a bigger Middle East war largely in play.
Feel free to say I am wrong but comments like "Utter bullshit which 2 seconds of research would tell you" are just ad-hom macho hyperbole and don't help to, for example, encourage female or timid posters to stick their head above the parapet.
I went and looked at the actual figures rather than a write 300 words today to scare your readers article.
Err, Brent Crude is up nearly 4% in the past 48 hours, having spent the last week falling. The reversal started with the news from Iran of the death of the Hamas guy.
The article quoted a 0.5% rise overnight (when an equal factor is the Fed holding interest rates steady).
And when I look at that chart compared to this time last year the price is following a similar pattern for this time of year.
Hence I don't see anything out of the ordinary at the moment. Now that may change but I would need to look in a weeks time..
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Very strong agree. But with two caveats:
* It is no longer 2016 (1) and the Democrats will have learned a lot of campaigning lessons since then in terms of where to focus resources. The Clinton campaign was disastrously poor in its targeting.
* It is no longer 2016 (2) and Independents have seen Trump in office, have seen his support for insurrection, have seen the Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade and grant Trump (for it is him only) next to total immunity for actions he commits in office.
Trump's entire electoral strategy was predicated on Joe Biden being his opponent. He is struggling pivot his campaign to facing the mentally and physically agile Harris. His base is absolutely secure but it is not enough. He needs to find a way back to independents. Despite the caveats, I would not bet against him.
Picking up "lidos with views of cathedrals", it's a bit of a challenge as cathedrals tend to be urban. Wild swimming with views may be a better option. The best option may be the seaside in the South, or pleasant churches which are not cathedrals next to rivers.
I can do you a castle, at St Andrews, and a tidal pool. But that's the North sea off Scotland, so it will freeze your balls off (1). Lots more castles (2). Hathersage Lido may have views of Peak District hills - @TSE can advise.
For cathedrals - Salisbury and the Avon, perhaps? Or use of Cathedral Schools pools in the summer - Salisbury school has an outdoor one.
The best would be the Minster Pool at Lichfield - they are running "Lichfield Beach" this summer, so that's a surprise. Local authority missed a trick.
I really can't see why urban open water swimming is so restricted.
My favourite would be Melbourne Poole, Derbyshire, near one of the top Norman Churches in the country, with Sheela-na-Gig. But Melbourne is a very Nimby sort of place; also the only place I have *ever* been asked not to inject insulin in a restaurant.
As things stand, try the Anchor Church, on the Rover Trent nr Ingleby. My photo for the day:
For more, I think there is a fighting chance that access legislation in England may get overhauled now the Landowners' Party are out, and that may include a universal-with-limitations right to navigate rivers as Scotland, including lake / reservoir access. Re-regulation of water companies may help.
THe sort of access right the Landowners' Party tried to extinguish completely on land and water in Scotland rather than allow the codification of the open access enjoyed immemorial?
That's a very interesting suggestion - good luck down there.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
Those are percentages. You also need the absolute value. If the 26% reduction in road casualties is from 10,000 to 7,400 then that is impressive. If it is from 50 to 37 then not so much.
You then have to establish how many road casualties is too many. No decision is without cost. You could reduce the casualties to zero by abolishing road transport. Since that is (I assume) not an option, then there must be an acceptable level of casualties. When that is known, we can put those numbers in context.
Politics in general would proceed better if these points were more widely applied, I feel. ☹️
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Although TBF they acquired 80% of it under the Tories.
How they are still allowed to operate in this country at all given their track record is beyond me, but no party has clean hands.
Correct nobody can claim theyre clean- certainly not Thames catchment area. However while all are focusing on Thames the situation in the other Watercos isnt much better. Southern and South East are dead men walking. Welsh Water -disaster, but top prize must go to NI water who have polluted Lough Neagh to the point of killing it and who cant run basic services. In their defence this is mostly due to politicians who wont raise water charges for investment. But it will go beyond the point of recovery if they dont.
NI water the worst of the lot? But NI water are nationalised and always have been, so that is a WICKED RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY LIE
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
One of the wonderful things about conversations here is that Putinbots are briefly toyed with then squashed like a bug. Makes a chap proud to be British.
Out there, they have been allowed to infest the internet. And none of us know how much shit we're swallowing. With the consequences we have seen across the Atlantic.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Very strong agree. But with two caveats:
* It is no longer 2016 (1) and the Democrats will have learned a lot of campaigning lessons since then in terms of where to focus resources. The Clinton campaign was disastrously poor in its targeting.
* It is no longer 2016 (2) and Independents have seen Trump in office, have seen his support for insurrection, have seen the Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade and grant Trump (for it is him only) next to total immunity for actions he commits in office.
Trump's entire electoral strategy was predicated on Joe Biden being his opponent. He is struggling pivot his campaign to facing the mentally and physically agile Harris. His base is absolutely secure but it is not enough. He needs to find a way back to independents. Despite the caveats, I would not bet against him.
Yes, I'd agree with this.
I'd add that Vance seems to be a complete prat (though his casual misogyny may get the Andrew Tate supporter type vote, I'm fairly sure they were voting Trump anyway).
And all the project 2025 stuff, combined with issues like Roe vs Wade and Trump's support for insurrectionists on Jan 6th, means this isn't a rehash of 2016. Democracy *is* at state this tie.
My biggest caveat to Kamala rampers on here and in the media is that incumbents are getting a kicking worldwide right now for the last four years of inflation and economic malaise. Trump's protectionism and perceived plan to bring jobs back to America is something that is going to resonate, uh, bigly, with a lot of disaffected voters. Like his policy to make tips tax free. This is a pitch aimed squarely at the working classes while also being backed by big bucks libertarians like Thiel. Plus a nudge nudge wink wink approach to courting the conservative right, the Project 2025ers. I don't believe Trump's support is as narrow as it initially appears, just from listening to his unhinged rambles.
In a head to head debate he clearly comes off worse than Kamala, but people are voting for what he represents as much as his perceived competence in office.
2024 feels like a coin toss to me, and I'm sad I'm no longer doing focus groups in America so have less of an ear to the ground now.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Although TBF they acquired 80% of it under the Tories.
How they are still allowed to operate in this country at all given their track record is beyond me, but no party has clean hands.
Correct nobody can claim theyre clean- certainly not Thames catchment area. However while all are focusing on Thames the situation in the other Watercos isnt much better. Southern and South East are dead men walking. Welsh Water -disaster, but top prize must go to NI water who have polluted Lough Neagh to the point of killing it and who cant run basic services. In their defence this is mostly due to politicians who wont raise water charges for investment. But it will go beyond the point of recovery if they dont.
Isn't the irony there that NI water is in the public sector - hence it rather destroys the argument that Nationalising the water companies will magically fix everything?
NI remains in public ownership and the politicians are buying their heads in the sand. Currently there are no seperate water charges its all in the rates. My broter's rates for services plucs water are less than my water charges alone.
As you say public ownership can be as bad as private.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
Indeed.
The thing I find hysterical is his love of family values but also loves the pussy grabber.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
Those are percentages. You also need the absolute value. If the 26% reduction in road casualties is from 10,000 to 7,400 then that is impressive. If it is from 50 to 37 then not so much.
You then have to establish how many road casualties is too many. No decision is without cost. You could reduce the casualties to zero by abolishing road transport. Since that is (I assume) not an option, then there must be an acceptable level of casualties. When that is known, we can put those numbers in context.
Politics in general would proceed better if these points were more widely applied, I feel. ☹️
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Yes, the US is horribly divided at the moment, and there’s at least 40% of voters who are for one side or the other, and never going to change their minds between now and the election.
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
Mr. L, must admit, I've never heard that expression.
It came from Horace's ars Poetica: ""quandoque bonus dormitat Homerus" noting that there are some continuity issues in the Iliad.
It was quoted by a couple of bored judges in some court cases that I came across when they were on the point of giving up trying to ascribe meaning to a particularly asinine piece of legislation.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
Indeed, some of this discussion is silly.
The responsibility of Ofwat should surely be to ensure that the water firms meet their legal responsibilities. Clean water flows. Sewerage is processed etc, etc
Ensuring bondholders can be repaid is the responsibility of the bondholders and shareholders doing their own due diligence.
You don't get to outsource your own due diligence to a regulator. That's your job and if you lose your own money as you've done a bad job, then that's your own damned fault and you have nobody to blame but yourself for your own bad decision making.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
Indeed.
The thing I find hysterical is his love of family values but also loves the pussy grabber.
Yawn
Shall we discuss Trump's multiple visits to Epstein's paedo island - not that it would make any difference in your love of him..
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The missing bit is that most road users are travelling considerably more than 20 mph with speeds of 25 mph plus and that some former 30mph roads are having the limit restored in September in accordance with the Welsh government's own guidance
There is no dispute that 20mph zones work when applied properly and indeed have widescale support
Anyway it really has ceased to be an issue due to the Welsh government's own actions
I think that the other half of that is that breaching the 30mph limit was common previoualy, and the key gain is from reducing speeds of 34-38mph down to perhaps 25-29mph. We still have speeding, but the level of risk and resulting consequences are much reduced.
Serious question: do you have information on how many 30mph limit sections are being re-introduced, which was a possibility in the scheme from the start, and what % of road miles it applies to?
I have not seen numbers on that, and politicians seem sensibly to have left it deliberately ambiguous. I'd expect rollback to affect a fairly small amount of road miles. For me the key thing is that the default has changed, so it is the higher limit that requires effort to impose.
I think the benefit that should lock this in for the soft-opponent group will be insurance premiums.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The missing bit is that most road users are travelling considerably more than 20 mph with speeds of 25 mph plus and that some former 30mph roads are having the limit restored in September in accordance with the Welsh government's own guidance
There is no dispute that 20mph zones work when applied properly and indeed have widescale support
Anyway it really has ceased to be an issue due to the Welsh government's own actions
As a driving experience, Welsh roads are a pain. You can literally go from 60 -> 40 -> 30 -> 20 -> 30 -> 20 -> 40 -> 30 -> 20 -> 30 -> 40 -> 60 in the course of 2 miles. A driving holiday in Wales is no fun if, despite best efforts to be legal, you come home with 6 penalty points.
That feels wrong to me. 20 zones should be in residential roads that you only drive down to get to a destination in that area. The main road should be 30. That isn't the case in London. Some of the 20 limits there are, in my opinion, ridiculous. Haven't driven in Wales recently so can't comment on what it's like there.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Although TBF they acquired 80% of it under the Tories.
How they are still allowed to operate in this country at all given their track record is beyond me, but no party has clean hands.
Correct nobody can claim theyre clean- certainly not Thames catchment area. However while all are focusing on Thames the situation in the other Watercos isnt much better. Southern and South East are dead men walking. Welsh Water -disaster, but top prize must go to NI water who have polluted Lough Neagh to the point of killing it and who cant run basic services. In their defence this is mostly due to politicians who wont raise water charges for investment. But it will go beyond the point of recovery if they dont.
NI water the worst of the lot? But NI water are nationalised and always have been, so that is a WICKED RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY LIE
I dont think they are the worst of the lot, that honour goes to Uisce in the Republic. In the wettest country in Europe you can run out of water because you pipes leak so much
On the assumption that trump won’t be running in 2028, I wonder what direction the Republican Party will go in by then? Eventually the uk Labour Party stopped picking people like Michael Foot and Kinnock and went with a slick centrist. Or do they pick an heir to trump who’s a bit less gaffe prone and without the baggage.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
No I want a minister who sets proper rules for what needs to be regulated and then checks that those rules are being followed.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
Indeed.
The thing I find hysterical is his love of family values but also loves the pussy grabber.
Yawn
Shall we discuss Trump's multiple visits to Epstein's paedo island - not that it would make any difference in your love of him..
Did he pick up any presidential tips from Bill Clinton ?
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The thing that convinced me that this speed reduction policy was a good idea was the stat that vehicles are getting heavier.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
That is patently false and not represented by the data whatsoever.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
Indeed.
The thing I find hysterical is his love of family values but also loves the pussy grabber.
Yawn
Shall we discuss Trump's multiple visits to Epstein's paedo island - not that it would make any difference in your love of him..
Did he pick up any presidential tips from Bill Clinton ?
I don't see Bill Clinton on the presidential ballot paper..
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The thing that convinced me that this speed reduction policy was a good idea was the stat that vehicles are getting heavier.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
That is patently false and not represented by the data whatsoever.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
That is true, but does not contradict the above point that "Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.".
Perhaps rather than having a speed limit we should have a momentum limit?
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The thing that convinced me that this speed reduction policy was a good idea was the stat that vehicles are getting heavier.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
That is patently false and not represented by the data whatsoever.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
Modern cars are much less likely to cause serious injury because the emphasis on fuel consumption and wind tunnels have resulted in far more rounded shapes which means the force of the impact is spread over a longer period of time reducing the force of the collusion. You are much less likely to be pinged into the air and the way of oncoming traffic. Of course this helps very little if you are hit by a bus or a lorry with a flat front.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The thing that convinced me that this speed reduction policy was a good idea was the stat that vehicles are getting heavier.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
That is patently false and not represented by the data whatsoever.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
That is true, but does not contradict the above point that "Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.".
Perhaps rather than having a speed limit we should have a momentum limit?
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The thing that convinced me that this speed reduction policy was a good idea was the stat that vehicles are getting heavier.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
That is patently false and not represented by the data whatsoever.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
Modern cars are much less likely to cause serious injury because the emphasis on fuel consumption and wind tunnels have resulted in far more rounded shapes which means the force of the impact is spread over a longer period of time reducing the force of the collusion. You are much less likely to be pinged into the air and the way of oncoming traffic. Of course this helps very little if you are hit by a bus or a lorry with a flat front.
And many of them, like my Toyota, come with collision avoidance which will slam the brakes on automatically as you are about hit something, which must reduce the speed at impact.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
Picking up "lidos with views of cathedrals", it's a bit of a challenge as cathedrals tend to be urban. Wild swimming with views may be a better option. The best option may be the seaside in the South, or pleasant churches which are not cathedrals next to rivers.
I can do you a castle, at St Andrews, and a tidal pool. But that's the North sea off Scotland, so it will freeze your balls off (1). Lots more castles (2). Hathersage Lido may have views of Peak District hills - @TSE can advise.
For cathedrals - Salisbury and the Avon, perhaps? Or use of Cathedral Schools pools in the summer - Salisbury school has an outdoor one.
The best would be the Minster Pool at Lichfield - they are running "Lichfield Beach" this summer, so that's a surprise. Local authority missed a trick.
I really can't see why urban open water swimming is so restricted.
My favourite would be Melbourne Poole, Derbyshire, near one of the top Norman Churches in the country, with Sheela-na-Gig. But Melbourne is a very Nimby sort of place; also the only place I have *ever* been asked not to inject insulin in a restaurant.
As things stand, try the Anchor Church, on the Rover Trent nr Ingleby. My photo for the day:
For more, I think there is a fighting chance that access legislation in England may get overhauled now the Landowners' Party are out, and that may include a universal-with-limitations right to navigate rivers as Scotland, including lake / reservoir access. Re-regulation of water companies may help.
That piccie of the anchorite church is wonderful for an odd reason. I went to primary school in Repton (hence I can say "I went to school in Repton," the 'in' instead of 'at' being important). Whilst there, a friend wanted to go on an adventure to 'the caves'.
Both sets of parents vetoed the idea. I have family who live on the other side of the river (and a dad who remembers the old chain ferry across the Trent at Twyford), and I have often driven past the caves.
Yet I have still not been. I must have walked or run virtually every other road and path in the area, but I've never been there. It's sort-of developed a mythical reputation in my family as being an anti-me magnet. whenever I set out to go there, something develops; floods, heavy rain, a traffic accident.
Picking up "lidos with views of cathedrals", it's a bit of a challenge as cathedrals tend to be urban. Wild swimming with views may be a better option. The best option may be the seaside in the South, or pleasant churches which are not cathedrals next to rivers.
I can do you a castle, at St Andrews, and a tidal pool. But that's the North sea off Scotland, so it will freeze your balls off (1). Lots more castles (2). Hathersage Lido may have views of Peak District hills - @TSE can advise.
For cathedrals - Salisbury and the Avon, perhaps? Or use of Cathedral Schools pools in the summer - Salisbury school has an outdoor one.
The best would be the Minster Pool at Lichfield - they are running "Lichfield Beach" this summer, so that's a surprise. Local authority missed a trick.
I really can't see why urban open water swimming is so restricted.
My favourite would be Melbourne Poole, Derbyshire, near one of the top Norman Churches in the country, with Sheela-na-Gig. But Melbourne is a very Nimby sort of place; also the only place I have *ever* been asked not to inject insulin in a restaurant.
As things stand, try the Anchor Church, on the Rover Trent nr Ingleby. My photo for the day:
For more, I think there is a fighting chance that access legislation in England may get overhauled now the Landowners' Party are out, and that may include a universal-with-limitations right to navigate rivers as Scotland, including lake / reservoir access. Re-regulation of water companies may help.
The River Itchen at St Cross Hospital was a fine place to swim in the summer. Beautiful view of the hospital and an Iron Age fort at St Catherine’s hill. Can’t remember if you could see Winchester Cathedral from there. A pleasant walk from the Centre of Winchester or a quick bike ride.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Yes, the US is horribly divided at the moment, and there’s at least 40% of voters who are for one side or the other, and never going to change their minds between now and the election.
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
Trump is, as always full of shit.
Donald Trump made campaign donations to Kamala Harris in 2011 & 2013. His 2020 campaign said the donations are proof he's not racist against Black people. So Trump knew she was Black in 2011 but now says he thought she was Indian. https://cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-kamala-harris-campaign-donation-racism/
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
One of the wonderful things about conversations here is that Putinbots are briefly toyed with then squashed like a bug. Makes a chap proud to be British.
Out there, they have been allowed to infest the internet. And none of us know how much shit we're swallowing. With the consequences we have seen across the Atlantic.
Yes, but I don't think MisterBedfordshire is a Putinbot? He's been here under various guises for years hasn't he? You can't just say someone who you think is a bit right wing is a Putinbot.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
In a sensible world OfWat would be disbanded, as clearly unfit for purpose having seen the largest company they regulate go spectacularly bust. At best, we might see an expensive rebranding while the same people sit at the same desks doing the same jobs and ‘learning their lessons’.
Why is their purpose to prevent a private firm from going bust?
That's the shareholders/bondholder's responsibility, not Ofwat's.
They're possibly unfit for purpose for the amount of pollution being allowed to go into rivers etc - although if its true that the amount hasn't changed and we're just detecting it better then that could be them being fit for purpose.
It is Thames Water and its shareholder's responsibility to ensure they are profitable and operate well. It is Ofwat's responsibility to ensure the laws are followed and regulated services operate.
If Thames Water is failing to meet its regulated responsibilities then Ofwat's duty would be to fine Thames Water for failing to meet its obligations - and if that fine is the straw that breaks the camels back and Thames Water goes bust, so be it. Ofwat have a duty to ensure services are met, not bond payment schedules.
Mr. L, to be fair, continuity in Greek myth can be a bit of a bugger. There are multiple explanations for why Sarpedon was still around for the Trojan War.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
No I want a minister who sets proper rules for what needs to be regulated and then checks that those rules are being followed.
And how is a 'here today gone next year' politician going to do that ?
He'll have a few days or hours a year to check that the regulator is competently regulating and that the supply companies and competently supplying. And how would he know if they weren't ? Because you can be sure that none of them will openly admit it.
Ultimately he's going to rely on civil servants with the knowledge and experience.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Although TBF they acquired 80% of it under the Tories.
How they are still allowed to operate in this country at all given their track record is beyond me, but no party has clean hands.
Correct nobody can claim theyre clean- certainly not Thames catchment area. However while all are focusing on Thames the situation in the other Watercos isnt much better. Southern and South East are dead men walking. Welsh Water -disaster, but top prize must go to NI water who have polluted Lough Neagh to the point of killing it and who cant run basic services. In their defence this is mostly due to politicians who wont raise water charges for investment. But it will go beyond the point of recovery if they dont.
NI water the worst of the lot? But NI water are nationalised and always have been, so that is a WICKED RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY LIE
I dont think they are the worst of the lot, that honour goes to Uisce in the Republic. In the wettest country in Europe you can run out of water because you pipes leak so much
It is a valid reminder that Nationalisation is not a panacea either and that privatisation came about because the nationalised water companies needed so much money spent on them to bring them up to modern standards (and EU directives) that the treasury couldn't afford it.
BT, the first one, was purely for that reason due to the need to wholly reequip for digital exchanges. After the inital success the ideologues jumped on the bandwagon.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Very strong agree. But with two caveats:
* It is no longer 2016 (1) and the Democrats will have learned a lot of campaigning lessons since then in terms of where to focus resources. The Clinton campaign was disastrously poor in its targeting.
* It is no longer 2016 (2) and Independents have seen Trump in office, have seen his support for insurrection, have seen the Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade and grant Trump (for it is him only) next to total immunity for actions he commits in office.
Trump's entire electoral strategy was predicated on Joe Biden being his opponent. He is struggling pivot his campaign to facing the mentally and physically agile Harris. His base is absolutely secure but it is not enough. He needs to find a way back to independents. Despite the caveats, I would not bet against him.
Yes, I'd agree with this.
I'd add that Vance seems to be a complete prat (though his casual misogyny may get the Andrew Tate supporter type vote, I'm fairly sure they were voting Trump anyway).
And all the project 2025 stuff, combined with issues like Roe vs Wade and Trump's support for insurrectionists on Jan 6th, means this isn't a rehash of 2016. Democracy *is* at state this tie.
My biggest caveat to Kamala rampers on here and in the media is that incumbents are getting a kicking worldwide right now for the last four years of inflation and economic malaise. Trump's protectionism and perceived plan to bring jobs back to America is something that is going to resonate, uh, bigly, with a lot of disaffected voters. Like his policy to make tips tax free. This is a pitch aimed squarely at the working classes while also being backed by big bucks libertarians like Thiel. Plus a nudge nudge wink wink approach to courting the conservative right, the Project 2025ers. I don't believe Trump's support is as narrow as it initially appears, just from listening to his unhinged rambles.
In a head to head debate he clearly comes off worse than Kamala, but people are voting for what he represents as much as his perceived competence in office.
2024 feels like a coin toss to me, and I'm sad I'm no longer doing focus groups in America so have less of an ear to the ground now.
Kamala Harris was definitely value at 3.3 last week, I think she's still value at 2.3 today but I'd be hesitant to back her around evens. She's better than Biden, but her electoral path to victory looks narrow tbh.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The missing bit is that most road users are travelling considerably more than 20 mph with speeds of 25 mph plus and that some former 30mph roads are having the limit restored in September in accordance with the Welsh government's own guidance
There is no dispute that 20mph zones work when applied properly and indeed have widescale support
Anyway it really has ceased to be an issue due to the Welsh government's own actions
As a driving experience, Welsh roads are a pain. You can literally go from 60 -> 40 -> 30 -> 20 -> 30 -> 20 -> 40 -> 30 -> 20 -> 30 -> 40 -> 60 in the course of 2 miles. A driving holiday in Wales is no fun if, despite best efforts to be legal, you come home with 6 penalty points.
Actually many may think that is nonsense but it is actually quite true of some areas in Wales
This is a huge difference from 2016. What comes over is that Trump has only been talking to his own supporters. He's using the same talking points he uses with them and he uses them because he gets a good reaction from them and he never gets any pushback, then he's completely unprepared to talk to anyone who hasn't been marinating in the same stuff for years.
I guess this is the downside of having a cult. He used to be much more in touch with ordinary people; He was famous but he'd go to MacDonalds and meet people who weren't part of his fanbase.
He's got all the disadvantages of incumbency where you end up committed to an ever-increasing burden of weird talking points that you have to defend, without actually being the incumbent.
I suspect that Trump's troubles yesterday will only motivate his base more given who was exposing his clear cognitive decline, racism and misogyny.
Having watched parts of the Trump interview at the Black Journalists Conference I am not seeing the cognitive decline or old man vibe. It was the same combative stream of lies as always. Maybe the environment has changed and Trump will lose but I don't think he has.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
Those are percentages. You also need the absolute value. If the 26% reduction in road casualties is from 10,000 to 7,400 then that is impressive. If it is from 50 to 37 then not so much.
You then have to establish how many road casualties is too many. No decision is without cost. You could reduce the casualties to zero by abolishing road transport. Since that is (I assume) not an option, then there must be an acceptable level of casualties. When that is known, we can put those numbers in context.
Politics in general would proceed better if these points were more widely applied, I feel. ☹️
So you want the bit of the thread I didn't copy over - all you've done there is tell me you didn't click the link and read the whole thread...
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
One of the wonderful things about conversations here is that Putinbots are briefly toyed with then squashed like a bug. Makes a chap proud to be British.
Out there, they have been allowed to infest the internet. And none of us know how much shit we're swallowing. With the consequences we have seen across the Atlantic.
Yes, but I don't think MisterBedfordshire is a Putinbot? He's been here under various guises for years hasn't he? You can't just say someone who you think is a bit right wing is a Putinbot.
It feeds into the Liberal conceit that anyone right wing or socially conservative is stupid and can't think for themselves, so must be being manipulated by a bad actor.
Its a bit silly and the Ad-hom elements are pathetic and childish.
Sure I come out with Bollocks sometimes, usually from going from memory not detailed research (this is a web forum not a seminar at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers). However it is possible to criticise the issue not gratitously smear the person.
I wish they would stick to policy not people. This all feeds into the discussion about people like Carlotta and Cyclefree leaving.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The missing bit is that most road users are travelling considerably more than 20 mph with speeds of 25 mph plus and that some former 30mph roads are having the limit restored in September in accordance with the Welsh government's own guidance
There is no dispute that 20mph zones work when applied properly and indeed have widescale support
Anyway it really has ceased to be an issue due to the Welsh government's own actions
I think that the other half of that is that breaching the 30mph limit was common previoualy, and the key gain is from reducing speeds of 34-38mph down to perhaps 25-29mph. We still have speeding, but the level of risk and resulting consequences are much reduced.
Serious question: do you have information on how many 30mph limit sections are being re-introduced, which was a possibility in the scheme from the start, and what % of road miles it applies to?
I have not seen numbers on that, and politicians seem sensibly to have left it deliberately ambiguous. I'd expect rollback to affect a fairly small amount of road miles. For me the key thing is that the default has changed, so it is the higher limit that requires effort to impose.
I think the benefit that should lock this in for the soft-opponent group will be insurance premiums.
On your question of reinstated 30mph zones that will only become evident from September and will be published in due course on the individual local authority websites
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
Those are percentages. You also need the absolute value. If the 26% reduction in road casualties is from 10,000 to 7,400 then that is impressive. If it is from 50 to 37 then not so much.
You then have to establish how many road casualties is too many. No decision is without cost. You could reduce the casualties to zero by abolishing road transport. Since that is (I assume) not an option, then there must be an acceptable level of casualties. When that is known, we can put those numbers in context.
Politics in general would proceed better if these points were more widely applied, I feel. ☹️
Develop a risk matrix. Perform a QRA. Determine whether current risk levels are acceptable or if further mitigation is required. It's what we do in industry.
Indeed, but that's a specific example of the general point.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Yes, the US is horribly divided at the moment, and there’s at least 40% of voters who are for one side or the other, and never going to change their minds between now and the election.
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
Interesting links, thanks, particularly the last one. While being black isn't 'performative' I've often wondered how 'black' Kamala seems to black voters, especially with her record of incarcerating black people while working at the DA's office.
Contrary to the received wisdom that most American voters (especially Trump supporters) are low IQ, low information types, I think people like the ones you shared there are actually pretty switched on and provide a counterbalance to the mainstream news narrative. I was lucky to be on a focus group tour of the US during 2016 so I got to see a lot of those conversations between ordinary voters play out. They will be playing out, again, away from the mainstream media in 2024, and we discount them at our peril.
Has this actually been confirmed. There have been some uncorroborated images, and at least one fake. Is it official?
I doubt it will be officially confirmed. They won't have very many of them until next year, and where they are based will be closely guarded information.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Very strong agree. But with two caveats:
* It is no longer 2016 (1) and the Democrats will have learned a lot of campaigning lessons since then in terms of where to focus resources. The Clinton campaign was disastrously poor in its targeting.
* It is no longer 2016 (2) and Independents have seen Trump in office, have seen his support for insurrection, have seen the Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade and grant Trump (for it is him only) next to total immunity for actions he commits in office.
Trump's entire electoral strategy was predicated on Joe Biden being his opponent. He is struggling pivot his campaign to facing the mentally and physically agile Harris. His base is absolutely secure but it is not enough. He needs to find a way back to independents. Despite the caveats, I would not bet against him.
Yes, I'd agree with this.
I'd add that Vance seems to be a complete prat (though his casual misogyny may get the Andrew Tate supporter type vote, I'm fairly sure they were voting Trump anyway).
And all the project 2025 stuff, combined with issues like Roe vs Wade and Trump's support for insurrectionists on Jan 6th, means this isn't a rehash of 2016. Democracy *is* at state this tie.
My biggest caveat to Kamala rampers on here and in the media is that incumbents are getting a kicking worldwide right now for the last four years of inflation and economic malaise. Trump's protectionism and perceived plan to bring jobs back to America is something that is going to resonate, uh, bigly, with a lot of disaffected voters. Like his policy to make tips tax free. This is a pitch aimed squarely at the working classes while also being backed by big bucks libertarians like Thiel. Plus a nudge nudge wink wink approach to courting the conservative right, the Project 2025ers. I don't believe Trump's support is as narrow as it initially appears, just from listening to his unhinged rambles.
In a head to head debate he clearly comes off worse than Kamala, but people are voting for what he represents as much as his perceived competence in office.
2024 feels like a coin toss to me, and I'm sad I'm no longer doing focus groups in America so have less of an ear to the ground now.
Kamala Harris was definitely value at 3.3 last week, I think she's still value at 2.3 today but I'd be hesitant to back her around evens. She's better than Biden, but her electoral path to victory looks narrow tbh.
2.3 sounds about right, definitely as a trading bet if you’re not already on at higher prices. She’s definitely got momentum in the past week, and that’s likely to continue through August as the DNC does this vote next week and their conference is in a fortnight, so the coverage is likely to be positive.
The real campaign starts after Labor Day (2nd September this year), by which time we will likely have a whole load of swing state polling (hopefully also including Kennedy), which will determine where the candidates focus their energies in the last few weeks. As always with US elections, it could come down to which way a couple of knife-edge states go on the day.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The missing bit is that most road users are travelling considerably more than 20 mph with speeds of 25 mph plus and that some former 30mph roads are having the limit restored in September in accordance with the Welsh government's own guidance
There is no dispute that 20mph zones work when applied properly and indeed have widescale support
Anyway it really has ceased to be an issue due to the Welsh government's own actions
As a driving experience, Welsh roads are a pain. You can literally go from 60 -> 40 -> 30 -> 20 -> 30 -> 20 -> 40 -> 30 -> 20 -> 30 -> 40 -> 60 in the course of 2 miles. A driving holiday in Wales is no fun if, despite best efforts to be legal, you come home with 6 penalty points.
That feels wrong to me. 20 zones should be in residential roads that you only drive down to get to a destination in that area. The main road should be 30. That isn't the case in London. Some of the 20 limits there are, in my opinion, ridiculous. Haven't driven in Wales recently so can't comment on what it's like there.
As I have posted, it is not wrong on some roads, especially here in North Wales
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Macquarrie already own 80% of the gas grid. The purchase of the other 20% is really a tidying up exercise which thankfully allows the Government to have a say...
Oh good I'm sure theyll be responsible owners and the government will take an active interest in regulating them.
If they do, they'll be the first government to do so since privatisation. Your lack of interest in grid ownership until Labour went into government doesn't say much for your actual concern about the issue.
Was it here that we were having the discussion a while back about whether weight actually makes a difference to injuries or am I thinking of somewhere else? As I understood the argument that it doesn't, what hurts you if you get hit by a car is that you're suddenly accelerated by a hard surface. If you're also in a car, the weight of your car will reduce the speed at which it accelerates you and proportionally decelerate the other car. But if you're a pedestrian and you're not a massive lard-arse, the car is already many times heavier than you so you will have basically no power in decelerating it. In that case doubling the weight of the car that hit you will hardly make any difference.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The missing bit is that most road users are travelling considerably more than 20 mph with speeds of 25 mph plus and that some former 30mph roads are having the limit restored in September in accordance with the Welsh government's own guidance
There is no dispute that 20mph zones work when applied properly and indeed have widescale support
Anyway it really has ceased to be an issue due to the Welsh government's own actions
I think that the other half of that is that breaching the 30mph limit was common previoualy, and the key gain is from reducing speeds of 34-38mph down to perhaps 25-29mph. We still have speeding, but the level of risk and resulting consequences are much reduced.
Serious question: do you have information on how many 30mph limit sections are being re-introduced, which was a possibility in the scheme from the start, and what % of road miles it applies to?
I have not seen numbers on that, and politicians seem sensibly to have left it deliberately ambiguous. I'd expect rollback to affect a fairly small amount of road miles. For me the key thing is that the default has changed, so it is the higher limit that requires effort to impose.
I think the benefit that should lock this in for the soft-opponent group will be insurance premiums.
On your question of reinstated 30mph zones that will only become evident from September and will be published in due course on the individual local authority websites
Politically I'd expect them to talk up the possibility, and follow the data as they get sufficient data.
My personal dog in this fight is that a successful policy, both for safer roads and for a suitable level of through-roads * at 30mph, in Wales will help win the argument more strategically for England.
* This also revolves around a policy to split through and local traffic, and separate travel modes, which is a different but parallel question.
Has this actually been confirmed. There have been some uncorroborated images, and at least one fake. Is it official?
I doubt it will be officially confirmed. They won't have very many of them until next year, and where they are based will be closely guarded information.
There’s been more than one suggestion that they’re actually going to be based in Poland. They’ll fly ‘empty’ to Ukraine, land among the MiGs to get armed, then run the mission and head back to Poland.
The idea being that they’re never parked anywhere in Ukraine for more than a few minutes, knowing how valuable they are to the enemy.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
We've just elected a charisma- and idea-free charlatan who lied to and then shamelessly betrayed his supporters, tried for years to undermine the biggest democratic vote in this country's history, couldn't define what a woman is and has no convincing answers to any of our problems.
We may be less lethally violent than Americans but otherwise we're definitely inside the glasshouse when it comes to a terrible political class.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The thing that convinced me that this speed reduction policy was a good idea was the stat that vehicles are getting heavier.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
That is patently false and not represented by the data whatsoever.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
Modern cars are much less likely to cause serious injury because the emphasis on fuel consumption and wind tunnels have resulted in far more rounded shapes which means the force of the impact is spread over a longer period of time reducing the force of the collusion. You are much less likely to be pinged into the air and the way of oncoming traffic. Of course this helps very little if you are hit by a bus or a lorry with a flat front.
EU reg 78/2009 has had more effect than efficiency driven aerodynamics because that mandates frontal full width impact and automatic bonnet lift on collision which means a pedestrian's/cyclist's head is not stotting off the cylinder head.
On topic - this is the Access Hollywood tape redux. It won’t make a shred of difference and Trump will win, perhaps not as convincingly as he would have done against Biden, but handsomely enough. Nothing can stop that.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
One of the wonderful things about conversations here is that Putinbots are briefly toyed with then squashed like a bug. Makes a chap proud to be British.
Out there, they have been allowed to infest the internet. And none of us know how much shit we're swallowing. With the consequences we have seen across the Atlantic.
Yes, but I don't think MisterBedfordshire is a Putinbot? He's been here under various guises for years hasn't he? You can't just say someone who you think is a bit right wing is a Putinbot.
Sure, and apologies if I gave that impression.
I'm thinking more of the way that there's loads of falsely-labelled shit out there, and the SM algorithms ensure that, if you interact with some shit (whether hard left, hard right or obsessively smug centrist dad) you will be fed more often the same.
It's very easy for all of us to end up in a hall of mirrors and shit and confuse it tor reality.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Although TBF they acquired 80% of it under the Tories.
How they are still allowed to operate in this country at all given their track record is beyond me, but no party has clean hands.
Correct nobody can claim theyre clean- certainly not Thames catchment area. However while all are focusing on Thames the situation in the other Watercos isnt much better. Southern and South East are dead men walking. Welsh Water -disaster, but top prize must go to NI water who have polluted Lough Neagh to the point of killing it and who cant run basic services. In their defence this is mostly due to politicians who wont raise water charges for investment. But it will go beyond the point of recovery if they dont.
NI water the worst of the lot? But NI water are nationalised and always have been, so that is a WICKED RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY LIE
I dont think they are the worst of the lot, that honour goes to Uisce in the Republic. In the wettest country in Europe you can run out of water because you pipes leak so much
It is a valid reminder that Nationalisation is not a panacea either and that privatisation came about because the nationalised water companies needed so much money spent on them to bring them up to modern standards (and EU directives) that the treasury couldn't afford it...
Looking at the amount of money that was extracted from them in the first decade and a half after privatisation (most of which went overseas), the Treasury probably could have afforded it, though. And if it was about spending money on infrastructure, then the newly floated companies would have been far more strictly regulated.
The truth is that Mrs Thatcher's administration made a complete hash of that particular privatisation, and none of her successors did much better.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
We've just elected a charisma- and idea-free charlatan who lied to and then shamelessly betrayed his supporters, tried for years to undermine the biggest democratic vote in this country's history, couldn't define what a woman is and has no convincing answers to any of our problems.
We may be less lethally violent than Americans but otherwise we're definitely inside the glasshouse when it comes to a terrible political class.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Macquarrie already own 80% of the gas grid. The purchase of the other 20% is really a tidying up exercise which thankfully allows the Government to have a say...
Oh good I'm sure theyll be responsible owners and the government will take an active interest in regulating them.
If they do, they'll be the first government to do so since privatisation. Your lack of interest in grid ownership until Labour went into government doesn't say much for your actual concern about the issue.
I think you'll find Ive said chunks of our national infrastructure should be taken back in to public ownership. I see no benefit in handing essential infrastructure to large corporates. If its a core requirement the country should own it. The problem we have today is big government loves big corporations, and since the corporations employ smarter people the country gets shafted.
However since I know you love my posts, Ill put your inability to recall what I said to your advancing years.
Was it here that we were having the discussion a while back about whether weight actually makes a difference to injuries or am I thinking of somewhere else? As I understood the argument that it doesn't, what hurts you if you get hit by a car is that you're suddenly accelerated by a hard surface. If you're also in a car, the weight of your car will reduce the speed at which it accelerates you and proportionally decelerate the other car. But if you're a pedestrian and you're not a massive lard-arse, the car is already many times heavier than you so you will have basically no power in decelerating it. In that case doubling the weight of the car that hit you will hardly make any difference.
And if you're a pedestrian hit by a vehicle cars today are massively safer than they're 30 years ago as they're designed to absorb/slow some of the impact. Cars today are quite differently designed to cars 30 years ago and a lot of work has gone into those safety features both at a manufacturers level and through regulations from the EU and elsewhere.
Where you have much less chance is if you're a pedestrian hit by a bus, which is still pretty much like being hit by a moving brick wall.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
Indeed, some of this discussion is silly.
The responsibility of Ofwat should surely be to ensure that the water firms meet their legal responsibilities. Clean water flows. Sewerage is processed etc, etc
Ensuring bondholders can be repaid is the responsibility of the bondholders and shareholders doing their own due diligence.
You don't get to outsource your own due diligence to a regulator. That's your job and if you lose your own money as you've done a bad job, then that's your own damned fault and you have nobody to blame but yourself for your own bad decision making.
Water is a monopoly product that everyone has to use and pay for. The main interest of the water company is to charge to the max and spend as little as possible on keeping the water clean in direct opposition to the public interest. OFWAT gets involved the company's business because it has to mitigate that profit seeking motive, while ensuring water supply is visible. The system is collapsing under its own contradictions because privatised water companies are a fundamentally flawed concept. That was a political decision.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Very strong agree. But with two caveats:
* It is no longer 2016 (1) and the Democrats will have learned a lot of campaigning lessons since then in terms of where to focus resources. The Clinton campaign was disastrously poor in its targeting.
* It is no longer 2016 (2) and Independents have seen Trump in office, have seen his support for insurrection, have seen the Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade and grant Trump (for it is him only) next to total immunity for actions he commits in office.
Trump's entire electoral strategy was predicated on Joe Biden being his opponent. He is struggling pivot his campaign to facing the mentally and physically agile Harris. His base is absolutely secure but it is not enough. He needs to find a way back to independents. Despite the caveats, I would not bet against him.
Yes, I'd agree with this.
I'd add that Vance seems to be a complete prat (though his casual misogyny may get the Andrew Tate supporter type vote, I'm fairly sure they were voting Trump anyway).
And all the project 2025 stuff, combined with issues like Roe vs Wade and Trump's support for insurrectionists on Jan 6th, means this isn't a rehash of 2016. Democracy *is* at state this tie.
My biggest caveat to Kamala rampers on here and in the media is that incumbents are getting a kicking worldwide right now for the last four years of inflation and economic malaise. Trump's protectionism and perceived plan to bring jobs back to America is something that is going to resonate, uh, bigly, with a lot of disaffected voters. Like his policy to make tips tax free. This is a pitch aimed squarely at the working classes while also being backed by big bucks libertarians like Thiel. Plus a nudge nudge wink wink approach to courting the conservative right, the Project 2025ers. I don't believe Trump's support is as narrow as it initially appears, just from listening to his unhinged rambles.
In a head to head debate he clearly comes off worse than Kamala, but people are voting for what he represents as much as his perceived competence in office.
2024 feels like a coin toss to me, and I'm sad I'm no longer doing focus groups in America so have less of an ear to the ground now.
Kamala Harris was definitely value at 3.3 last week, I think she's still value at 2.3 today but I'd be hesitant to back her around evens. She's better than Biden, but her electoral path to victory looks narrow tbh.
2.3 sounds about right, definitely as a trading bet if you’re not already on at higher prices. She’s definitely got momentum in the past week, and that’s likely to continue through August as the DNC does this vote next week and their conference is in a fortnight, so the coverage is likely to be positive.
The real campaign starts after Labor Day (2nd September this year), by which time we will likely have a whole load of swing state polling (hopefully also including Kennedy), which will determine where the candidates focus their energies in the last few weeks. As always with US elections, it could come down to which way a couple of knife-edge states go on the day.
The 'real' campaign has already started. The Harris campaign dropped 50 million dollars on ads in the last week.
26% reduction in road casualities 23% in killed / seriously injured 55% drop in people killed 27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
The thing that convinced me that this speed reduction policy was a good idea was the stat that vehicles are getting heavier.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
That is patently false and not represented by the data whatsoever.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
Modern cars are much less likely to cause serious injury because the emphasis on fuel consumption and wind tunnels have resulted in far more rounded shapes which means the force of the impact is spread over a longer period of time reducing the force of the collusion. You are much less likely to be pinged into the air and the way of oncoming traffic. Of course this helps very little if you are hit by a bus or a lorry with a flat front.
Indeed.
All of this, plus features like automatic braking, mean both cars and pedestrians are measurably miles safer than they were in the past.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I think you and Mister Bedfordshire seem to miss the obvious difference.
Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
That would be the Fox who fired Tucker Carlson and are now seen to be as infected with the woke liberal virus as the rest of them?
I see your comment is rooted as in much reality as most of your other posts.
Seems to me that the one consistent feature of his posts is their being rooted in talking points coming out of Moscow.
One of the wonderful things about conversations here is that Putinbots are briefly toyed with then squashed like a bug. Makes a chap proud to be British.
Out there, they have been allowed to infest the internet. And none of us know how much shit we're swallowing. With the consequences we have seen across the Atlantic.
Yes, but I don't think MisterBedfordshire is a Putinbot? He's been here under various guises for years hasn't he? You can't just say someone who you think is a bit right wing is a Putinbot.
The word "Putinbot" feels like an intellectually impoverished and often inaccurate shortcut. I'm sure some of them must be wumao. Others might just be the emotionally bereft who are radicalised on Facebook or whatever who feel like they are contributing the Quase.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
You don't have to be an expert to note on a gross scale how badly regulators have got it wrong. The ministers with responsibility could very easily have noted how much cash was going out as dividends. compared to what was being spent on infrastructure. If they'd thought to ask.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
What absolute tosh. Macquarrie first came on the scene under Blair and were allowed to do what they did, All UK parties were happy to let the fiasco continue because they has "independent regulators. The regulator spent most of their time on box ticking nonsense rather than worrying about the fundamentals.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
Although TBF they acquired 80% of it under the Tories.
How they are still allowed to operate in this country at all given their track record is beyond me, but no party has clean hands.
Correct nobody can claim theyre clean- certainly not Thames catchment area. However while all are focusing on Thames the situation in the other Watercos isnt much better. Southern and South East are dead men walking. Welsh Water -disaster, but top prize must go to NI water who have polluted Lough Neagh to the point of killing it and who cant run basic services. In their defence this is mostly due to politicians who wont raise water charges for investment. But it will go beyond the point of recovery if they dont.
NI water the worst of the lot? But NI water are nationalised and always have been, so that is a WICKED RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY LIE
I dont think they are the worst of the lot, that honour goes to Uisce in the Republic. In the wettest country in Europe you can run out of water because you pipes leak so much
It is a valid reminder that Nationalisation is not a panacea either and that privatisation came about because the nationalised water companies needed so much money spent on them to bring them up to modern standards (and EU directives) that the treasury couldn't afford it...
Looking at the amount of money that was extracted from them in the first decade and a half after privatisation (most of which went overseas), the Treasury probably could have afforded it, though. And if it was about spending money on infrastructure, then the newly floated companies would have been far more strictly regulated.
The truth is that Mrs Thatcher's administration made a complete hash of that particular privatisation, and none of her successors did much better.
Picking up "lidos with views of cathedrals", it's a bit of a challenge as cathedrals tend to be urban. Wild swimming with views may be a better option. The best option may be the seaside in the South, or pleasant churches which are not cathedrals next to rivers.
I can do you a castle, at St Andrews, and a tidal pool. But that's the North sea off Scotland, so it will freeze your balls off (1). Lots more castles (2). Hathersage Lido may have views of Peak District hills - @TSE can advise.
For cathedrals - Salisbury and the Avon, perhaps? Or use of Cathedral Schools pools in the summer - Salisbury school has an outdoor one.
The best would be the Minster Pool at Lichfield - they are running "Lichfield Beach" this summer, so that's a surprise. Local authority missed a trick.
I really can't see why urban open water swimming is so restricted.
My favourite would be Melbourne Poole, Derbyshire, near one of the top Norman Churches in the country, with Sheela-na-Gig. But Melbourne is a very Nimby sort of place; also the only place I have *ever* been asked not to inject insulin in a restaurant.
As things stand, try the Anchor Church, on the Rover Trent nr Ingleby. My photo for the day:
For more, I think there is a fighting chance that access legislation in England may get overhauled now the Landowners' Party are out, and that may include a universal-with-limitations right to navigate rivers as Scotland, including lake / reservoir access. Re-regulation of water companies may help.
THe sort of access right the Landowners' Party tried to extinguish completely on land and water in Scotland rather than allow the codification of the open access enjoyed immemorial?
That's a very interesting suggestion - good luck down there.
I hope there's been a sea change. Nulab did a lot, but got quite bogged down.
One notorious move was around the Right to Claim Rights of Way due to historic usage, where an agreement had been reached between NFU type bodies and Ramblers type bodies, and Theresa Coffey the Minister threw it out and just abolished it on her own say so at 5 days notice.
That was later reversed, but it's indicative of the basic assumptions - which have now changed to at least some degree. I'm not sure how far it goes.
But Theresa Coffey and friends are now largely reduced to a tinny wibbling noise emerging from the dustbin of history. That is, a sunk cost - and we start from here.
One thing we do have are that creating and upgrading footpaths etc are now in Sustainable Farming Payments, which is an opportunity. That is a Boris Johnson thing worked through this spring - so credit to the Tories for that. I'd like to see Ukraine style field margins with a national network of active travel routes through them.
How long can Thames Water hold out ? Yet another debt downgrade.
"Environment Secretary Steve Reed last week said the group remained “financially viable” and would not need to be nationalised.
Mr Reed added that there was “no need to have undue concerns at the moment”.
I cant help but think that will bite his arse in the coming months and Reeves will do he blame everyone but herself routine as she suddenly has to find a few billion more.
And while she does have a point on the behaviour the various owners, it does rather raise the question of why she's letting MaQuarie one of the villains of the piece take control of the nations gas grid. Clearly she hasnt been "learning the lessons"
Thames Water has looked doomed ever since interest rates went over about 1%. They were used as a source of capital and cheap debt by the owners as a way of monetising the income flow that came from their customers like they were gilts. The problem is that they got too greedy and the regulator was too stupid to spot the obvious risk, that that income flow was fixed by the margin they were allowed on their services, not by the rate of interest. As soon as the rate of interest increased the sustainable debt fell and the owners refused to pay it back, trying to blackmail the regulator into allowing additional charges instead.
It is a classic example of inept and incompetent regulation. Whether that is simply incompetence in the regulator or incompetence on the part of the people who set up the structure is a bit complicated but it is clear neither were fit for purpose.
Them and many many others.
The oil price is rocketing with the latest middle east goings on. You can forget interest rate cuts any time soon.
In fact with the Tory inflationary actions like double digit minimum wage rises and Ldbour inflationary actions like doctors 22% pensionsble pay rises, the next interest rate change may well be up.
I'm trying to remember which financial guru (not the Sage of Omaha, but similar) said that interest rates going up was like the tide going out at the beach - people are revealed to be naked.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
Indeed, some of this discussion is silly.
The responsibility of Ofwat should surely be to ensure that the water firms meet their legal responsibilities. Clean water flows. Sewerage is processed etc, etc
Ensuring bondholders can be repaid is the responsibility of the bondholders and shareholders doing their own due diligence.
You don't get to outsource your own due diligence to a regulator. That's your job and if you lose your own money as you've done a bad job, then that's your own damned fault and you have nobody to blame but yourself for your own bad decision making.
Water is a monopoly product that everyone has to use and pay for. The main interest of the water company is to charge to the max and spend as little as possible on keeping the water clean in direct opposition to the public interest. OFWAT gets involved the company's business because it has to mitigate that profit seeking motive, while ensuring water supply is visible. The system is collapsing under its own contradictions because privatised water companies are a fundamentally flawed concept. That was a political decision.
Not quite correct.
The water quality of the rivers like the Thames and our beaches was disgusting in the 1980s pre-privatisation and the water quality is much, much better than it used to be. Even if there are issues today, they're nothing like the pre-privatisation issues.
The problem is that fines mean nothing to a nationalised firm. Breaking regulations and getting fined notionally means utterly nothing to you if there's no profit motive.
By introducing the profit motive combined with ensuring there are serious fines for pollution, it means the water company has every incentive to keep its fines to a minimum. Which means if spending more to keep water clean reduces fines by even more, then the profit motive says to do that.
Ofwat needs serious teeth to fine firms that pollute. That was its entire purpose and it worked at cleaning up rivers and beaches in leaps and bounds in the 1990s. We should be looking to give it extra teeth now to go further, not turn back the clock.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Yes, the US is horribly divided at the moment, and there’s at least 40% of voters who are for one side or the other, and never going to change their minds between now and the election.
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
I've pointed out a few times that this website is well inside the 'liberal mainstream' hive/bubble. If you switch to the other bubble, IE even just by reading Elon Musk's posts on Twitter, the world appears very different.
The main problem is that people have whipped themselves up in to total repulsion and disgust at Trump to such a degree that they give the liberals a total free pass over anything. So whatever the left does or tolerates (terrorism, rioting, discrimination, racism) it is all basically ok because there is a greater enemy to be defeated.
If given the choice I would probably vote for Harris as the 'less worse' option, not because I agree in any way with the dominant analysis (as set out above). The deal breaker is that Trump has proved to be an existential danger to democracy, whereas Harris is not.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
You don't have to be an expert to note on a gross scale how badly regulators have got it wrong. The ministers with responsibility could very easily have noted how much cash was going out as dividends. compared to what was being spent on infrastructure. If they'd thought to ask.
We aren't arguing over minutiae.
Why is that the regulators responsibility?
The regulators responsibility is to ensure water is clean. That happened, in leaps and bounds, post-privatisation.
It is shareholders/bondholders responsibility to look after their interests. It is not the regulators responsibility to look after bondholders, it is the regulators responsibility to look after the public.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Yes, the US is horribly divided at the moment, and there’s at least 40% of voters who are for one side or the other, and never going to change their minds between now and the election.
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
I've pointed out a few times that this website is well inside the 'liberal mainstream' hive/bubble. If you switch to the other bubble, IE even just by reading Elon Musk's posts on Twitter, the world appears very different.
The age bubble is also an issue. Media consuption in the under 34s is now so radically different to media consuption in the over 44s that they might as well be different countries.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
You don't have to be an expert to note on a gross scale how badly regulators have got it wrong. The ministers with responsibility could very easily have noted how much cash was going out as dividends. compared to what was being spent on infrastructure. If they'd thought to ask.
We aren't arguing over minutiae.
I think part of the problem is that the state is too big and does far too much so it is impossible for any government to keep up the plate spinning.
Especially with modern micromanaging and knee jerk to media excitement.
Persunally I think a huge mistake was made by Atlees government.
These things (untilities, health) should be under local authority control and the local authorites should have the powers and independence of 1940s local authorities.
The problem then was that while the big counties were competent (London (LCC) already all but had an "NHS" for example), the smaller and more rural counties were too small.
Local government reform into LCC size counties was needed. Instead they went for nationalisation and conficscated assets that had been paid for by generations of ratepayers without a penny of compensation with control and accountability removed from county hall to a megalith hundreds of miles away.
On the assumption that trump won’t be running in 2028, I wonder what direction the Republican Party will go in by then? Eventually the uk Labour Party stopped picking people like Michael Foot and Kinnock and went with a slick centrist. Or do they pick an heir to trump who’s a bit less gaffe prone and without the baggage.
It took 3 consecutive general election defeats for Foot and Kinnock to get to Blair.
Of course part of the reason Trump got the nomination in the first place is the GOP had picked centrists twice in a row, McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 and both had lost. Trump then surprisingly won in 2016 and although he lost in 2020 it would likely take defeats for both him in November and Vance or De Santis in 2028 (one of whom is the likely next GOP nominee) for them to pick a centrist like Haley again
Was it here that we were having the discussion a while back about whether weight actually makes a difference to injuries or am I thinking of somewhere else? As I understood the argument that it doesn't, what hurts you if you get hit by a car is that you're suddenly accelerated by a hard surface. If you're also in a car, the weight of your car will reduce the speed at which it accelerates you and proportionally decelerate the other car. But if you're a pedestrian and you're not a massive lard-arse, the car is already many times heavier than you so you will have basically no power in decelerating it. In that case doubling the weight of the car that hit you will hardly make any difference.
There's also a lot of stuff about heavier vehicles hitting the torso or the head, rather than the legs, so causing more serious injuries - in addition to poorer visibility, less stability etc, and that a heavy vehicle vs a smaller vehicle has greater consequences.
For peds, compare a big crew cab pick up, currently with tax breaks that were reintroduced by Ministers in the spring for electoral reasons after the HMRC were proposing to remove them, with the 4x4 Subaru estate or similar many had 2 decades ago.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Yes, the US is horribly divided at the moment, and there’s at least 40% of voters who are for one side or the other, and never going to change their minds between now and the election.
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
I've pointed out a few times that this website is well inside the 'liberal mainstream' hive/bubble. If you switch to the other bubble, IE even just by reading Elon Musk's posts on Twitter, the world appears very different.
The main problem is that people have whipped themselves up in to total repulsion and disgust at Trump to such a degree that they give the liberals a total free pass over anything. So whatever the left does or tolerates (terrorism, rioting, discrimination, racism) it is all basically ok because there is a greater enemy to be defeated.
If given the choice I would probably vote for Harris as the 'less worse' option, not because I agree in any way with the dominant analysis (as set out above). The deal breaker is that Trump has proved to be an existential danger to democracy, whereas Harris is not.
Are you taking the absolute piss? With MrbEd, Leon, Pagan2, HYUFD, Max… I could go on. The site is full of right wing late middle aged blokes who think they are edgy and will create outrage when, in truth, their views are well aired in both the mainstream and alternative news. The liberal left is in a distinct minority on here. Rightist views dominate.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians are in charge of OFWAT, and set their regulatory boundaries.
The incompetence and greed of the last government was not just over privatised utilities of course.
This country is going to need a lot of fixing. I am yet to be convinced that Labour are up to the job, but even they are a massive step up.
It's not just the politicians. Note that the permanent structure of government is still adamantly opposed to letting Thames Water go bust.
When it doesn't, the lawsuits will last for decades. Every decision by the regulators will be reviewed.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
You don't have to be an expert to note on a gross scale how badly regulators have got it wrong. The ministers with responsibility could very easily have noted how much cash was going out as dividends. compared to what was being spent on infrastructure. If they'd thought to ask.
We aren't arguing over minutiae.
Why is that the regulators responsibility?
The regulators responsibility is to ensure water is clean. That happened, in leaps and bounds, post-privatisation.
It is shareholders/bondholders responsibility to look after their interests. It is not the regulators responsibility to look after bondholders, it is the regulators responsibility to look after the public.
Ofwat have a quite wide brief. They have to approve pricing and investment plans for the utilities on a 5 year basis. They also have to ensure the basic financial stability of the Water cos which is why TW now finds itself breaking its covenants to the regulator and hence more pressure on itself and HMG.
The industry is a regulated industry, it's just the regulator is crap.
I honestly think that the crossover is going to come very soon, possibly even today. The latest polls show Harris between 3 and 7(!) points ahead. Trump is imploding, his choice of VP has gone down very badly and Harris looks competent, comparatively young and sane.
I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
I would like to think so, but America is a weird place, so being weird is not a bar to support. The pussy grabbing, riot provoking bigot still has nearly half of America supporting him. Astonishing but true.
Whereas we elected a Prime Minister who had been sacked from multiple jobs for lying and doesn't know how many children he has. That ended well.
Thames Water is just one of many examples of pisspoor administration by the last government. So focused on Brexit, stoking Culture War and graft to bother with the mundanities of competent administration.
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Why do you put the blame for Thames Water on politicians as opposed to Ofwat whose actual purpose is to regulate the water companies.
Because the politicians have let Ofwat do a piss (other words for effluent can be substituted) poor job...
So you want a minister for regulating regulators or perhaps a regulator for regulating regulators, Ofof.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
Indeed, some of this discussion is silly.
The responsibility of Ofwat should surely be to ensure that the water firms meet their legal responsibilities. Clean water flows. Sewerage is processed etc, etc
Ensuring bondholders can be repaid is the responsibility of the bondholders and shareholders doing their own due diligence.
You don't get to outsource your own due diligence to a regulator. That's your job and if you lose your own money as you've done a bad job, then that's your own damned fault and you have nobody to blame but yourself for your own bad decision making.
So you are suggesting that people with voluntarily assumed legal responsibility be held legally responsible for the legal responsibilities they are responsible for?
That would collapse the entire basis of the NU10K!
On topic - this is the Access Hollywood tape redux. It won’t make a shred of difference and Trump will win, perhaps not as convincingly as he would have done against Biden, but handsomely enough. Nothing can stop that.
At the risk of pointing out the obvious, success scales to polls. TrumpvBiden was increasingly a slam-dunk as Biden's numbers cratered. TrumpvHarris is a different ball-game as her polling numbers are considerably better and are going up. She may mess it up with the VP pick (I think Shapiro will be a drag on the ticket?) but if she doesn't, the momentum is with her.
I'm beginning to think that the odds on Ms Harris are looking attractive.
Been saying it for ages. Once the media turns on Trump, this becomes a trainwreck. He will be increasingly ridiculed.
The media turned on Trump in 2016, and it didn’t help them much.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her. https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090 ^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
I remember the SNL sketch after Trump's first debate against Hillary in 2016 where they cut 'live' to 'Hillary's campaign HQ' with everybody dancing and partying.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
Yes, the US is horribly divided at the moment, and there’s at least 40% of voters who are for one side or the other, and never going to change their minds between now and the election.
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
I've pointed out a few times that this website is well inside the 'liberal mainstream' hive/bubble. If you switch to the other bubble, IE even just by reading Elon Musk's posts on Twitter, the world appears very different.
The main problem is that people have whipped themselves up in to total repulsion and disgust at Trump to such a degree that they give the liberals a total free pass over anything. So whatever the left does or tolerates (terrorism, rioting, discrimination, racism) it is all basically ok because there is a greater enemy to be defeated.
If given the choice I would probably vote for Harris as the 'less worse' option, not because I agree in any way with the dominant analysis (as set out above). The deal breaker is that Trump has proved to be an existential danger to democracy, whereas Harris is not.
Are you taking the absolute piss? With MrbEd, Leon, Pagan2, HYUFD, Max… I could go on. The site is full of right wing late middle aged blokes who think they are edgy and will create outrage when, in truth, their views are well aired in both the mainstream and alternative news. The liberal left is in a distinct minority on here. Rightist views dominate.
That isn't really true, 38% of UK voters voted Tory or Reform on 4th July, I would guess less than 38% of PBers did.
This site is largely liberal centrist and always has been, I would expect more PBers than the UK average vote LD in particular
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And when I look at that chart compared to this time last year the price is following a similar pattern for this time of year.
Hence I don't see anything out of the ordinary at the moment. Now that may change but I would need to look in a weeks time..
That's a very interesting suggestion - good luck down there.
And if there are disputes between the supply company, the regulator, the regulators regulator and the 'here today gone next year' politician who is supposed to be 'the expert' ?
Remember 'experts' ? Those people politicians are always condemned for not paying attention to.
Out there, they have been allowed to infest the internet. And none of us know how much shit we're swallowing. With the consequences we have seen across the Atlantic.
I'd add that Vance seems to be a complete prat (though his casual misogyny may get the Andrew Tate supporter type vote, I'm fairly sure they were voting Trump anyway).
And all the project 2025 stuff, combined with issues like Roe vs Wade and Trump's support for insurrectionists on Jan 6th, means this isn't a rehash of 2016. Democracy *is* at state this tie.
My biggest caveat to Kamala rampers on here and in the media is that incumbents are getting a kicking worldwide right now for the last four years of inflation and economic malaise. Trump's protectionism and perceived plan to bring jobs back to America is something that is going to resonate, uh, bigly, with a lot of disaffected voters. Like his policy to make tips tax free. This is a pitch aimed squarely at the working classes while also being backed by big bucks libertarians like Thiel. Plus a nudge nudge wink wink approach to courting the conservative right, the Project 2025ers. I don't believe Trump's support is as narrow as it initially appears, just from listening to his unhinged rambles.
In a head to head debate he clearly comes off worse than Kamala, but people are voting for what he represents as much as his perceived competence in office.
2024 feels like a coin toss to me, and I'm sad I'm no longer doing focus groups in America so have less of an ear to the ground now.
If we use Wikipedia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election), then 5 of 9 polls that started sampling on 26 July onwards have Harris ahead. 3 have Trump ahead and 1 tied. On average thY puts Harris 1pt ahead nationally, which is a long way from RealClearPolling at +2pt for Trump.
I strongly suspect both polling averages and the betting market will see crossover soon.
As you say public ownership can be as bad as private.
24 fewer deaths
68 fewer serious injuries
440 fewer slight injuries
may or may not be good estimates for the annual figures...
The media is even more divided, with most of the mainstream falling heavily for Harris and most of the alternative media behind Trump. Personally I try and watch both, to try and understand what each side is saying. Mostly they’re talking straight past each other.
For example, here’s Don Lemon from CNN arguing about Harris’s right to call herself African American - from four years ago. https://x.com/jackposobiec/status/1815235666717954274
Here’s an MSM article from when Harris was running for a DA job in California, describing herself as Asian with no mention of Black - which supports Trump’s position that she changed her identity at some point. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1818719005089448294
And here’s a group of Black men reacting to Trump’s interview last night, positively for Trump.
https://x.com/alexstein69420/status/1818832578863931833 (language warning on this one).
It was quoted by a couple of bored judges in some court cases that I came across when they were on the point of giving up trying to ascribe meaning to a particularly asinine piece of legislation.
The responsibility of Ofwat should surely be to ensure that the water firms meet their legal responsibilities. Clean water flows. Sewerage is processed etc, etc
Ensuring bondholders can be repaid is the responsibility of the bondholders and shareholders doing their own due diligence.
You don't get to outsource your own due diligence to a regulator. That's your job and if you lose your own money as you've done a bad job, then that's your own damned fault and you have nobody to blame but yourself for your own bad decision making.
Serious question: do you have information on how many 30mph limit sections are being re-introduced, which was a possibility in the scheme from the start, and what % of road miles it applies to?
I have not seen numbers on that, and politicians seem sensibly to have left it deliberately ambiguous. I'd expect rollback to affect a fairly small amount of road miles. For me the key thing is that the default has changed, so it is the higher limit that requires effort to impose.
I think the benefit that should lock this in for the soft-opponent group will be insurance premiums.
France has the tax sur la masse when you buy a new car which seems like a good idea. €10/kg over 1,600kg and €30/kg over 2,100kg.
Decades of technological and safety improvements, including crash test designs and iterations, mean you are far, far, far less likely to die today than decades ago. Which includes pedestrians.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-kellyanne-conway-jd-vance-b2589293.html
Perhaps rather than having a speed limit we should have a momentum limit?
But it should be called OFPFAFF.
Both sets of parents vetoed the idea. I have family who live on the other side of the river (and a dad who remembers the old chain ferry across the Trent at Twyford), and I have often driven past the caves.
Yet I have still not been. I must have walked or run virtually every other road and path in the area, but I've never been there. It's sort-of developed a mythical reputation in my family as being an anti-me magnet. whenever I set out to go there, something develops; floods, heavy rain, a traffic accident.
Donald Trump made campaign donations to Kamala Harris in 2011 & 2013. His 2020 campaign said the donations are proof he's not racist against Black people. So Trump knew she was Black in 2011 but now says he thought she was Indian.
https://cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-kamala-harris-campaign-donation-racism/
That's the shareholders/bondholder's responsibility, not Ofwat's.
They're possibly unfit for purpose for the amount of pollution being allowed to go into rivers etc - although if its true that the amount hasn't changed and we're just detecting it better then that could be them being fit for purpose.
It is Thames Water and its shareholder's responsibility to ensure they are profitable and operate well.
It is Ofwat's responsibility to ensure the laws are followed and regulated services operate.
If Thames Water is failing to meet its regulated responsibilities then Ofwat's duty would be to fine Thames Water for failing to meet its obligations - and if that fine is the straw that breaks the camels back and Thames Water goes bust, so be it. Ofwat have a duty to ensure services are met, not bond payment schedules.
He'll have a few days or hours a year to check that the regulator is competently regulating and that the supply companies and competently supplying. And how would he know if they weren't ? Because you can be sure that none of them will openly admit it.
Ultimately he's going to rely on civil servants with the knowledge and experience.
BT, the first one, was purely for that reason due to the need to wholly reequip for digital exchanges. After the inital success the ideologues jumped on the bandwagon.
I guess this is the downside of having a cult. He used to be much more in touch with ordinary people; He was famous but he'd go to MacDonalds and meet people who weren't part of his fanbase.
He's got all the disadvantages of incumbency where you end up committed to an ever-increasing burden of weird talking points that you have to defend, without actually being the incumbent.
Its a bit silly and the Ad-hom elements are pathetic and childish.
Sure I come out with Bollocks sometimes, usually from going from memory not detailed research (this is a web forum not a seminar at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers). However it is possible to criticise the issue not gratitously smear the person.
I wish they would stick to policy not people. This all feeds into the discussion about people like Carlotta and Cyclefree leaving.
He runs an anti-Trump PAC called "PsychoPAC" which positions Trump as a psychopath.
She is a long-term adviser to Mr Trump aiui.
Is she going to be the latest person to blame for Mr Trump?
Contrary to the received wisdom that most American voters (especially Trump supporters) are low IQ, low information types, I think people like the ones you shared there are actually pretty switched on and provide a counterbalance to the mainstream news narrative. I was lucky to be on a focus group tour of the US during 2016 so I got to see a lot of those conversations between ordinary voters play out. They will be playing out, again, away from the mainstream media in 2024, and we discount them at our peril.
Both due to improved safety features, better brakes, as well as features like automatic braking which reduce reaction times.
If anything we should be looking to increase speed limits not decrease them if we want to compare to the past.
They won't have very many of them until next year, and where they are based will be closely guarded information.
The real campaign starts after Labor Day (2nd September this year), by which time we will likely have a whole load of swing state polling (hopefully also including Kennedy), which will determine where the candidates focus their energies in the last few weeks. As always with US elections, it could come down to which way a couple of knife-edge states go on the day.
Your lack of interest in grid ownership until Labour went into government doesn't say much for your actual concern about the issue.
My personal dog in this fight is that a successful policy, both for safer roads and for a suitable level of through-roads * at 30mph, in Wales will help win the argument more strategically for England.
* This also revolves around a policy to split through and local traffic, and separate travel modes, which is a different but parallel question.
The idea being that they’re never parked anywhere in Ukraine for more than a few minutes, knowing how valuable they are to the enemy.
We may be less lethally violent than Americans but otherwise we're definitely inside the glasshouse when it comes to a terrible political class.
I'm thinking more of the way that there's loads of falsely-labelled shit out there, and the SM algorithms ensure that, if you interact with some shit (whether hard left, hard right or obsessively smug centrist dad) you will be fed more often the same.
It's very easy for all of us to end up in a hall of mirrors and shit and confuse it tor reality.
And if it was about spending money on infrastructure, then the newly floated companies would have been far more strictly regulated.
The truth is that Mrs Thatcher's administration made a complete hash of that particular privatisation, and none of her successors did much better.
However since I know you love my posts, Ill put your inability to recall what I said to your advancing years.
Where you have much less chance is if you're a pedestrian hit by a bus, which is still pretty much like being hit by a moving brick wall.
The Harris campaign dropped 50 million dollars on ads in the last week.
All of this, plus features like automatic braking, mean both cars and pedestrians are measurably miles safer than they were in the past.
We aren't arguing over minutiae.
Liz Truss still makes me laugh.
One notorious move was around the Right to Claim Rights of Way due to historic usage, where an agreement had been reached between NFU type bodies and Ramblers type bodies, and Theresa Coffey the Minister threw it out and just abolished it on her own say so at 5 days notice.
That was later reversed, but it's indicative of the basic assumptions - which have now changed to at least some degree. I'm not sure how far it goes.
But Theresa Coffey and friends are now largely reduced to a tinny wibbling noise emerging from the dustbin of history. That is, a sunk cost - and we start from here.
One thing we do have are that creating and upgrading footpaths etc are now in Sustainable Farming Payments, which is an opportunity. That is a Boris Johnson thing worked through this spring - so credit to the Tories for that. I'd like to see Ukraine style field margins with a national network of active travel routes through them.
https://x.com/jeffstorobinsky/status/1818722254542590012
Activote Trump 46% Harris 44% Kennedy 10%
https://www.activote.net/trump-extends-lead-over-harris/
HarrisX Harris 48% Trump 52%
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HHP_July2024_KeyResults.pdf
McLaughlin Trump 42% Harris 41% Kennedy 8%
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/National-July-Presentation-RELEASE-7-30-24.pdf
The water quality of the rivers like the Thames and our beaches was disgusting in the 1980s pre-privatisation and the water quality is much, much better than it used to be. Even if there are issues today, they're nothing like the pre-privatisation issues.
The problem is that fines mean nothing to a nationalised firm. Breaking regulations and getting fined notionally means utterly nothing to you if there's no profit motive.
By introducing the profit motive combined with ensuring there are serious fines for pollution, it means the water company has every incentive to keep its fines to a minimum. Which means if spending more to keep water clean reduces fines by even more, then the profit motive says to do that.
Ofwat needs serious teeth to fine firms that pollute. That was its entire purpose and it worked at cleaning up rivers and beaches in leaps and bounds in the 1990s. We should be looking to give it extra teeth now to go further, not turn back the clock.
The main problem is that people have whipped themselves up in to total repulsion and disgust at Trump to such a degree that they give the liberals a total free pass over anything. So whatever the left does or tolerates (terrorism, rioting, discrimination, racism) it is all basically ok because there is a greater enemy to be defeated.
If given the choice I would probably vote for Harris as the 'less worse' option, not because I agree in any way with the dominant analysis (as set out above). The deal breaker is that Trump has proved to be an existential danger to democracy, whereas Harris is not.
"This was a train wreck that derailed into the ocean where it was attacked by a shark and electrocuted before being hit by an asteroid."
But did the shark waterski up a ramp and over another shark?
The regulators responsibility is to ensure water is clean. That happened, in leaps and bounds, post-privatisation.
It is shareholders/bondholders responsibility to look after their interests. It is not the regulators responsibility to look after bondholders, it is the regulators responsibility to look after the public.
Especially with modern micromanaging and knee jerk to media excitement.
Persunally I think a huge mistake was made by Atlees government.
These things (untilities, health) should be under local authority control and the local authorites should have the powers and independence of 1940s local authorities.
The problem then was that while the big counties were competent (London (LCC) already all but had an "NHS" for example), the smaller and more rural counties were too small.
Local government reform into LCC size counties was needed. Instead they went for nationalisation and conficscated assets that had been paid for by generations of ratepayers without a penny of compensation with control and accountability removed from county hall to a megalith hundreds of miles away.
Of course part of the reason Trump got the nomination in the first place is the GOP had picked centrists twice in a row, McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 and both had lost. Trump then surprisingly won in 2016 and although he lost in 2020 it would likely take defeats for both him in November and Vance or De Santis in 2028 (one of whom is the likely next GOP nominee) for them to pick a centrist like Haley again
For peds, compare a big crew cab pick up, currently with tax breaks that were reintroduced by Ministers in the spring for electoral reasons after the HMRC were proposing to remove them, with the 4x4 Subaru estate or similar many had 2 decades ago.
alternative news. The liberal left is in a distinct minority on here. Rightist views dominate.
When it doesn't, the lawsuits will last for decades. Every decision by the regulators will be reviewed.
"Solihull Project"
The industry is a regulated industry, it's just the regulator is crap.
That would collapse the entire basis of the NU10K!
This site is largely liberal centrist and always has been, I would expect more PBers than the UK average vote LD in particular