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Trump had another totally normal day yesterday – politicalbetting.com
Trump had another totally normal day yesterday – politicalbetting.com
This was a train wreck that derailed into the ocean where it was attacked by a shark and electrocuted before being hit by an asteroid. https://t.co/77LrX4ffXO
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I don't see the current odds lasting long.
Of course there is a long way to go but Trump is the unhinged old man of this contest now.
FPT
DavidL said:
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Thames Water has looked doomed ever since interest rates went over about 1%. They were used as a source of capital and cheap debt by the owners as a way of monetising the income flow that came from their customers like they were gilts. The problem is that they got too greedy and the regulator was too stupid to spot the obvious risk, that that income flow was fixed by the margin they were allowed on their services, not by the rate of interest. As soon as the rate of interest increased the sustainable debt fell and the owners refused to pay it back, trying to blackmail the regulator into allowing additional charges instead.
It is a classic example of inept and incompetent regulation. Whether that is simply incompetence in the regulator or incompetence on the part of the people who set up the structure is a bit complicated but it is clear neither were fit for purpose.
What does the Chancellor do about it? Well, she should start by making it clear that McQuarie do not get to repeat their efforts in another part of our infrastructure. The shareholders must be completely wiped out. The bond holders are going to have to suffer too so that people no longer treat our infrastructure like gilts when they are not. The special administrator should sue for at least the last dividend paid on the basis the business does not have distributable funds. All of this will help but if the water and sewage of a large part of the country is to continue to flow this is going to cost public money.
I cant see any other way but HMG will have to put its hand in its pocket. And while everyone is focussing on TW, lets not forget it has a large supply chain which is essential to keeping water flowing. TW has outsourced lots of key skills such as maintenance and cannot function if its suppliers are dragged down too. On the other hand those same suppliers of they survive will be ramming their prices up and demanding pro forma payment. Somebody is going to have to stump up the cash.
The oil price is rocketing with the latest middle east goings on. You can forget interest rate cuts any time soon.
In fact with the Tory inflationary actions like double digit minimum wage rises and Ldbour inflationary actions like doctors 22% pensionsble pay rises, the next interest rate change may well be up.
Tory incompetence will be overtaken by Labour incompetence
They don't care how many random people they don't knows pussies are grabbed if it means the state won't steal their spoons or teach their kid that Fred can become Freda and Freda become Fred.
One of the new stadiums would be in the futuristic city of Neom, built 350m in the air and serviced by driverless vehicles and high-speed lifts.
https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/article/neom-stadium-to-be-built-in-350m-above-ground-for-saudi-world-cup-kxr2fz6z5
Mr. Eagles, it's wrong to say Saudi Arabia are to build 11 stadiums. It's 11 stadia. And I'll believe the 'Neom' stadium when I see it.
"Oil prices extend gains on Israel-Hamas fears, OPEC+ awaited.
Investing.com-- Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Thursday, extending a sharp rebound from the prior session as the killing of Hamas’ leader in Iran kept fears of a bigger Middle East war largely in play.
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-extend-gains-on-israelhamas-fears-opec-awaited-3623745.
Feel free to say I am wrong but comments like "Utter bullshit which 2 seconds of research would tell you" are just ad-hom macho hyperbole and don't help to, for example, encourage female or timid posters to stick their head above the parapet.
https://x.com/WillHayCardiff/status/1818675049726964120
26% reduction in road casualities
23% in killed / seriously injured
55% drop in people killed
27% drop in slight injuries
And insurance claims down 20%.
My stance has always been that the Welsh "20mph default limit in urban areas with some exceptions" policy is a no-brainer.
It's good to see more evidence piling up.
Meanwhile, much of the alternative media is turning on Harris. Here’s Joe Rogan and Michael Malice taking the piss out of the mainstream media for their total u-turn on her.
https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1818354746526499090
^^^ this interview will get tens of millions of views, more than all of the mainstream news combined, especially among the younger demographics.
Interest rates will fall but not by much, maybe 1% over the next year. The days of free money are over and thank goodness for that, the distortions it was causing in our economy were severe.
The economic prospects are for modest growth but this will not generate the additional tax income the government wants to spend. They inherited borrowing at 6% of GDP, roughly 3x the growth rate. That gap has to be plugged before there is any more money to spend. Rather than wittering on about "black holes" the Chancellor would be better to focus on the deficit. It is her major problem and her major constraint.
It's still stadia.
Should extend the 20 to the M4, A40, and A55, which will save even more accidents.
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Even Fox News are ripping into Trump.
Motorways are perhaps our safest roads, since there are no on carriageway junctions, vulnerable road users, or traffic going the other way (usually) - so dozy driving is relatively safe. But I think you know that
There is no dispute that 20mph zones work when applied properly and indeed have widescale support
Anyway it really has ceased to be an issue due to the Welsh government's own actions
[I think it's a valid view that the long term use/Anglicisation, if you like, means adding an S is ok but it's contrary to the Latin and, worse, sounds bloody ugly. Stadia is clearly better. But that is a subjective view].
Picking up "lidos with views of cathedrals", it's a bit of a challenge as cathedrals tend to be urban. Wild swimming with views may be a better option. The best option may be the seaside in the South, or pleasant churches which are not cathedrals next to rivers.
I can do you a castle, at St Andrews, and a tidal pool. But that's the North sea off Scotland, so it will freeze your balls off (1). Lots more castles (2). Hathersage Lido may have views of Peak District hills - @TSE can advise.
For cathedrals - Salisbury and the Avon, perhaps? Or use of Cathedral Schools pools in the summer - Salisbury school has an outdoor one.
The best would be the Minster Pool at Lichfield - they are running "Lichfield Beach" this summer, so that's a surprise. Local authority missed a trick.
I really can't see why urban open water swimming is so restricted.
My favourite would be Melbourne Poole, Derbyshire, near one of the top Norman Churches in the country, with Sheela-na-Gig. But Melbourne is a very Nimby sort of place; also the only place I have *ever* been asked not to inject insulin in a restaurant.
As things stand, try the Anchor Church, on the Rover Trent nr Ingleby. My photo for the day:
For more, I think there is a fighting chance that access legislation in England may get overhauled now the Landowners' Party are out, and that may include a universal-with-limitations right to navigate rivers as Scotland, including lake / reservoir access. Re-regulation of water companies may help.
(1) https://www.google.com/maps/place//@56.3402712,-2.7908208,197a,35y,44.95t/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1?entry=ttu
(2)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/outdoorswimmingsociety/posts/10158494149857830/
Bad inflation is inflation in commodity and transportation prices as a result of scarcity. It makes everyone except farmers, miners and shipbuilders poorer.
Good inflation is inflation in services prices driven by pay growth. It reflects people being richer and having more money to spend on discretionary items.
We’ve seen recent deflation across a number of commodities but stubborn service sector price rises. This seems to worry the central banks but they should relax a bit. A bit of consumption driven service sector inflation is OK.
Getting hit at 20mph now is likely to be worse than being hit at 30mph some twenty/thirty years ago.
Until very recently, he had an aura of invincibility, thanks, inter alia, to a legal system where he's fixed the ultimate court of appeal.
The media, along with the rest of the country's institutions - and our own foreign secretary - felt obliged to treat his toxic nonsense with a seriousness it has never deserved.
That hasn't yet gone completely.
The poison he's injected into the country's politics will take some time to dissipate, even if/when Harris ends his political career.
I was at the time conducting focus groups in the US where the issue of Trump was being brought up unprompted again and again by America's equivalent of our own working class. The idea that he was for them, while the media was for the elites.
To me, Trump's rants come off a bit like the deranged ramblings of your drunken uncle at the family get-together. But they clearly resonate with a significant portion of US society. Whereas the Kamala ramping reminds me of Milifandom - attempting to make something pretty stodgy seem cool. 'Kamala is brat'. Really? ...Really?
I think Kamala will look clear, insightful and intellectual when placed against Trump. But it only takes one comment, say, Hilary's 'basket of deplorables' to completely alienate an entire segment of voters. Plus the RCS point that incumbent governments round the world are getting a kicking due to the last few years of economic malaise and inflation.
Kamala is a massive improvement on Biden and I would be voting for her if I lived in the US. I also think the odds of her winning are closer to 50/50, so the current odds on offer are value. But it is definitely not a slam dunk as some posters on here are making out.
If the Welsh Government wish to allow speeds to be increased then that's up to them, but as those stats and TSE's comment makes clear - the speed reduction isn't a bad idea...
Plus doubie VED and an excise duty on electricity used to charge as more wear on the roads.
Oh Yes
You then have to establish how many road casualties is too many. No decision is without cost. You could reduce the casualties to zero by abolishing road transport. Since that is (I assume) not an option, then there must be an acceptable level of casualties. When that is known, we can put those numbers in context.
Politics in general would proceed better if these points were more widely applied, I feel. ☹️
They deserve an eternity on the Opposition benches.
Both forms are, of course, valid. But unless you're an Oxford classicist, the Latinate form is a tad affected, these days.
(and I’ll decide between a Lotus Elise and a Caterham Seven).
The actual fix would be to restrict EVs to 60mph (i.e. the same speed as lorries) which a lot of EV drivers do anyway...
I remember how I could predict imminent thunderstorms at middle school by the amount of lunchtime playground fights that broke out.
“It is extremely important that there should be no reporting, commentary, or sharing of information online which could in any way prejudice these proceedings.”
Sadly, good luck with that. Are they going to turn the Internet off?
The thing I find hysterical is his love of family values but also loves the pussy grabber.
Now Labour are letting Macquarrie take control of our gas grid. I cant see that ending well.
One of the most frightening drives I ever had was observing the permanent 30mph speed limit on the 3 lane each way A13 "expressway"
Had not driven down it before so didn't know where the cameras were.
Firstly watching the speedo all the time was a distraction.
Secondly looking in the rear mirror was terrifying as vehicles roared up brhind me then braked sharply and swerved.
Similar in 50mph roadworks limits on motorways where trucks drive on their EU mandated 56mph limiters and tailgate you.
How they are still allowed to operate in this country at all given their track record is beyond me, but no party has clean hands.
It's an example of pisspoor administration since Thatcher privatised it.
* It is no longer 2016 (1) and the Democrats will have learned a lot of campaigning lessons since then in terms of where to focus resources. The Clinton campaign was disastrously poor in its targeting.
* It is no longer 2016 (2) and Independents have seen Trump in office, have seen his support for insurrection, have seen the Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade and grant Trump (for it is him only) next to total immunity for actions he commits in office.
Trump's entire electoral strategy was predicated on Joe Biden being his opponent. He is struggling pivot his campaign to facing the mentally and physically agile Harris. His base is absolutely secure but it is not enough. He needs to find a way back to independents. Despite the caveats, I would not bet against him.
6 fewer deaths
17 fewer serious injuries
110 fewer slight injuries
His libido has given us a really fun F1 season and more importantly led to Max Verstappen's meltdown in Hungary.
I thought Sir Lewis winning his first F1 title in extraordinary circumstances in 2008 would be my favourite ever F1 memory, nope it was Verstappen moaning like a whore in Hungary 2024 and getting told to (effectively) STFU by his engineer.
Firstly it has had a major effect on bus timetables and the cancellation of some services.
Also the Welsh government would not have changed the guidance with some 30mph roads being reinstated in September
I recently drove extensively in Gwynedd and their 20mph policy is far more sensible and noticeably so than Conwy and Denbighshire
I would just say most commentators on the Welsh policy rarely if ever have actually travelled on the roads affected in Wales and experienced driving on them
I would also say the policy is not evil but sensible when applied appropriately
So it wasn't impossible, after all.
Compared with recent evenings, it's an oasis of calm.
Privatise the gains, privatise the losses.
If they go bust, they go bust. They enter bankruptcy, the services continue but with the shareholders wiped out and the bondholders taking a haircut. They should have done better due diligence before investing, that's not the taxpayers responsibility.
Drop the interest payments and there's a sustainable business there, so post bondholder wipeout the business can continue operating, without taxpayers shouldering the costs.
The incompetence and greed of the last government was not just over privatised utilities of course.
This country is going to need a lot of fixing. I am yet to be convinced that Labour are up to the job, but even they are a massive step up.
They are literally losing their shit over Harris.