It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
My view is that there are other reasons apart from energy prices to think that the next decade might be rather more benign than the last. Though I can't now remember what any of them are!
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
https://grid.iamkate.com/ gives the live figures. Currently 34.3% renewables (10.2% solar), 24.3% fossil fuels, 12.6% nuclear, 7.1% biomass, 10% from France, 1.1% pumped storage, etc.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
One reason in the UK for lower EV sales is the expected residue prices (i.e. at the end of the 2/3/4 year lease) are far lower than they were 3 years ago. So a Tesla on lease now costs way more than a lease from 2/3 years ago.
It's wind that currently dominates at 31.8%, more than any other single source. Followed by gas at 28.8%, then nuclear at 14.5%.
Although wind is more productive in the UK, the good thing about solar is that it tends to complement wind. That is, it's often sunny when the wind's not blowing, and vice versa.
Interestingly there's now more non Conservative MPs than Conservative MPs entitled (Adding Sinn Fein & the recently whip-lost Labour MPs here) to sit on the opposition benches...
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
If they are cheap enough the orientation doesn't matter.
Weight might be an issue with pre-existing warehouses; they are built to cope with the usual dead loads and live loads. Whilst solar panels and their peripherals don't weigh that much, over that sort of area the weight (and hence load) add up.
I do wonder how panels raised up off an existing roof affects the wind loading; if the wind gets behind them, they could act like a sail.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
One reason in the UK for lower EV sales is the expected residue prices (i.e. at the end of the 2/3/4 year lease) are far lower than they were 3 years ago. So a Tesla on lease now costs way more than a lease from 2/3 years ago.
Two issues.
1. Most EVs are sold new as company cars primarily for the tax breaks, and there’s very little second-hand market for them. 2. High interest rates are leading to more people keeping old cars or trading down.
One thing I have wondered about for some time: Would solar electricity be a good match for properly-designed energy-intensive manufacturing plants? For example, aluminum production. When the sun shines, make aluminum; when it doesn't, stop.
(I don't doubt that there have been studies of this idea, but I haven't seen anything, yet. In some deserts, it would be a fairly predictable day/night cycle, or so it seems to me.)
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
This is all true. But I am pretty pessimistic to be honest. Big chunks of our economy will be difficult to convert to renewables any time soon, especially while maintaining democratic consent for the cost impact. Then there’s international competitiveness on the harder to abate sectors. Personally I think net zero by 2035/40 etc… is a bust. And politicians need to start being a lot more honest with electorates about what that likely means.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
One reason in the UK for lower EV sales is the expected residue prices (i.e. at the end of the 2/3/4 year lease) are far lower than they were 3 years ago. So a Tesla on lease now costs way more than a lease from 2/3 years ago.
Two issues.
1. Most EVs are sold new as company cars primarily for the tax breaks, and there’s very little second-hand market for them. 2. High interest rates are leading to more people keeping old cars or trading down.
I'm not so sure about that even the small business owners I know have leased rather than bought their cars outright...
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
Not if we support the developing world to make the transition to solar, an energy production source that will work much better for them in multiple ways beyond its contribution to reducing CO2 output.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
This is all true. But I am pretty pessimistic to be honest. Big chunks of our economy will be difficult to convert to renewables any time soon, especially while maintaining democratic consent for the cost impact. Then there’s international competitiveness on the harder to abate sectors. Personally I think net zero by 2035/40 etc… is a bust. And politicians need to start being a lot more honest with electorates about what that likely means.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
Not if we support the developing world to make the transition to solar, an energy production source that will work much better for them in multiple ways beyond its contribution to reducing CO2 output.
What does that look like in practical policy terms?
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
One thing I have wondered about for some time: Would solar electricity be a good match for properly-designed energy-intensive manufacturing plants? For example, aluminum production. When the sun shines, make aluminum; when it doesn't, stop.
(I don't doubt that there have been studies of this idea, but I haven't seen anything, yet. In some deserts, it would be a fairly predictable day/night cycle, or so it seems to me.)
Chinese aluminium refining used to be based on or close to the coast. The local govt in western China then told all the producers that they could have essentially free (or very close to free) electricity if they moved their production there. The coal there is too low value to export to the coast but is abundant. So most of the plants in the west of the country were gradually decommissioned and shiny new ones built outside Urumqi, each with its own 1GW coal plant. Beijing waited until the plants had been built to sent its own people, who then tore up a good chunk of the environmental permits. Quite amusing.
But yes, at these PV prices, Australia should definitely be smelting and refining bauxite near the mines. Doubly so if combined with an international PR campaign to make dirty aluminium non regulatory compliant.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
One thing that was missed in our last debate our oil&gas licenses was what effect the massive tax relief available for O&G investment is having on the demand for those licences.
This is not my area so don't really understand how the incentives work in this part of the economy. When profit for O&G firms is taxed so heavily until 2029, surely that means it's optimal to invest heavily in new fields and wait for the tax rates to be cut from 2029 onward?
If they are cheap enough the orientation doesn't matter.
Weight might be an issue with pre-existing warehouses; they are built to cope with the usual dead loads and live loads. Whilst solar panels and their peripherals don't weigh that much, over that sort of area the weight (and hence load) add up.
I do wonder how panels raised up off an existing roof affects the wind loading; if the wind gets behind them, they could act like a sail.
Hmm, that's a fair point. I have always wondered about domestic solar panels in high winds although I have done damage surveys after wind incidents and I can't say I've seen any dramatic effects yet.
You can get flexible panels that install perfectly flat which could work well on a warehouse roof. On a domestic scale they are about 5kg / sq.m.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
One thing that was missed in our last debate our oil&gas licenses was what effect the massive tax relief available for O&G investment is having on the demand for those licences.
This is not my area so don't really understand how the incentives work in this part of the economy. When profit for O&G firms is taxed so heavily until 2029, surely that means it's optimal to invest heavily in new fields and wait for the tax rates to be cut from 2029 onward?
Also be interested to see how that compares with wind/solar.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
Interestingly* June CO2 was higher at Mauna Loa than May CO2, which was up on April CO2. It's only happened once before (In recorded history obvs) in 1979, though the CO2 uplift was ~ 1.2 ppm from 1978 for April, May, June last year. This year it's ~ 3.1 ppm from 2023. Obviously it won't (For many reasons) carry on long term (In the geological sense) like this but we'll look like a gnat's fart in earth's history compared to the actually impressively long dinosaur era if we carry on like this.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
This is all true. But I am pretty pessimistic to be honest. Big chunks of our economy will be difficult to convert to renewables any time soon, especially while maintaining democratic consent for the cost impact. Then there’s international competitiveness on the harder to abate sectors. Personally I think net zero by 2035/40 etc… is a bust. And politicians need to start being a lot more honest with electorates about what that likely means.
As Robert has laid out, there will be massive economic driving factors to clean much of the grid mix but also I think to electrify much of consumption. But it won’t be enough in the timeframe the scientists say is needed. Aviation is the big elephant in the room. You could throw the entirety of global UCO supplies (used cooking oil) at making SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), and that will happen quite fast. But it won’t do more than abate perhaps 2 years of global aviation growth. Maybe there are substitutes, artificially generated biofuel for example. Tolerating biofuel crops. But ultimately it’s the cost. It’s calculated that a 100% SAF fuelled flight would increase a trans Atlantic ticket cost 5X.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
One reason in the UK for lower EV sales is the expected residue prices (i.e. at the end of the 2/3/4 year lease) are far lower than they were 3 years ago. So a Tesla on lease now costs way more than a lease from 2/3 years ago.
Two issues.
1. Most EVs are sold new as company cars primarily for the tax breaks, and there’s very little second-hand market for them. 2. High interest rates are leading to more people keeping old cars or trading down.
I'm not so sure about that even the small business owners I know have leased rather than bought their cars outright...
1. The new sales are mostly to lease companies, rather than to businesses directly. 2. A whole load of business leases are being extended, and personal leases being bought out and refinanced.
One example, a friend of mine. He has a fancy car that was £80k list price three years ago. He paid £1k a month for a three year lease. The same car now is £100k and £2.5k a month to lease, and his £1k budget gets him the poverty-spec £40k version of the same car rather than the top-of-the-range spec. So he kept the car he has already and refinanced it instead of giving it back.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
Yes, grid storage suddenly doesn't look quite such a blue sky idea. I remarked on its sudden growth spurt a few days ago.
Trump's "drill baby drill" schtick - particularly when the US is already the world's largest fossil fuel producer, and has been self sufficient for a while - is utterly redundant.
You can't buck the market.
No, but you can do considerable damage to your country by trying.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
This is all true. But I am pretty pessimistic to be honest. Big chunks of our economy will be difficult to convert to renewables any time soon, especially while maintaining democratic consent for the cost impact. Then there’s international competitiveness on the harder to abate sectors. Personally I think net zero by 2035/40 etc… is a bust. And politicians need to start being a lot more honest with electorates about what that likely means.
As Robert has laid out, there will be massive economic driving factors to clean much of the grid mix but also I think to electrify much of consumption. But it won’t be enough in the timeframe the scientists say is needed. Aviation is the big elephant in the room. You could throw the entirety of global UCO supplies (used cooking oil) at making SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), and that will happen quite fast. But it won’t do more than abate perhaps 2 years of global aviation growth. Maybe there are substitutes, artificially generated biofuel for example. Tolerating biofuel crops. But ultimately it’s the cost. It’s calculated that a 100% SAF fuelled flight would increase a trans Atlantic ticket cost 5X.
SAF is just a daft idea. Especially trying to gasify waste to make FT fuels. Just apply CCS to EfW plants, and then the net negative emissions can offset the emissions from aviation burning conventional Jet-A1.
Wahay. This bodes well for a decade of national renewal under a changed Labour Party back in the service of working people.
"in the service of working people"
I'll just leave that there...
If we work part time do we get part time service? If we are contracted to work but are quite good at mostly avoiding doing any, are we still included as working people?
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
One reason in the UK for lower EV sales is the expected residue prices (i.e. at the end of the 2/3/4 year lease) are far lower than they were 3 years ago. So a Tesla on lease now costs way more than a lease from 2/3 years ago.
Two issues.
1. Most EVs are sold new as company cars primarily for the tax breaks, and there’s very little second-hand market for them. 2. High interest rates are leading to more people keeping old cars or trading down.
I'm not so sure about that even the small business owners I know have leased rather than bought their cars outright...
1. The new sales are mostly to lease companies, rather than to businesses directly. 2. A whole load of business leases are being extended, and personal leases being bought out and refinanced.
One example, a friend of mine. He has a fancy car that was £80k list price three years ago. He paid £1k a month for a three year lease. The same car now is £100k and £2.5k a month to lease, and his £1k budget gets him the poverty-spec £40k version of the same car rather than the top-of-the-range spec. So he kept the car he has already and refinanced it instead of giving it back.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
I'm talking about the fact that (for their own cars), they had much cheaper batteries than the competition because they made them in house very cheaply. Now their competitors are able to buy batteries cheaply, and that advantage has largely subsided.
If they are cheap enough the orientation doesn't matter.
Weight might be an issue with pre-existing warehouses; they are built to cope with the usual dead loads and live loads. Whilst solar panels and their peripherals don't weigh that much, over that sort of area the weight (and hence load) add up.
I do wonder how panels raised up off an existing roof affects the wind loading; if the wind gets behind them, they could act like a sail.
That's exactly what worries me about my house. It's perfectly angled to the prevailing gales for any panel with a space below to act as a lifting slat. I'm eyeing up the (new) timber shed but it's in just as bad a position - on a raised plinth where the gales are funnelled across its length. It's already screwed and strapped down to its plinth as i tis.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
I just wanted to memorialise the fact that after 25 years of Vodaphone , I have given them the inverted Winston Churchill salute. I hope my new provider will not let me down.
Was there an issue? Literally half way through setting up a new contract with them for mobile and broadband.
All this excited talk of solar panels while fibre and 5g is still infuriatingly inconsistent, even in a big city .
Remember the "correct price" for a SIM only plan should be about 7 to 8 pounds a month. Mobile telephony is one of the areas of the economy that has happily not been subject to the inflation the rest of it has.
I'm probably about to bin Samsung after 10 years for their health-and-safety-risk-to-visually-impaired-people Art Installation put up in the middle of the pavement at the tube station for the Moorfields Eye Hospital, so I am looking.
I pay about £8, and I have been an Apple-walled-garden refusenik since the 1980s, so I need to have a careful look around.
My view is that there are other reasons apart from energy prices to think that the next decade might be rather more benign than the last. Though I can't now remember what any of them are!
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
My view is that there are other reasons apart from energy prices to think that the next decade might be rather more benign than the last. Though I can't now remember what any of them are!
Hasn't @TSE just got married, so he'll be having fewer holidays?
As for stock markets surely this is very good news? Cheaper energy will be of benefit to all businesses who will do better than they were going to do?
Not discussed yet here is demand. We’re going to need a LOT of power as the energy economy transitions from fossil. And then there’s AI data centres.
I think the key change is that an increasing proportion of power is going to be delivered in the form of electricity (i.e. indirectly), rather than directly through the burning of fossil fuels.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
I just wanted to memorialise the fact that after 25 years of Vodaphone , I have given them the inverted Winston Churchill salute. I hope my new provider will not let me down.
Was there an issue? Literally half way through setting up a new contract with them for mobile and broadband.
All this excited talk of solar panels while fibre and 5g is still infuriatingly inconsistent, even in a big city .
Remember the "correct price" for a SIM only plan should be about 7 to 8 pounds a month. Mobile telephony is one of the areas of the economy that has happily not been subject to the inflation the rest of it has.
Yes, bagged that and used it to piggy back a current customer discount on the broadband.
I am currently paying EE £19 a month and they provide me with unlimited calls, data, and texts, uncapped speeds, and Apple Music which normally costs me £10.99 a month.
(2nd of 4 Yorkshiremen) Ee lad, I pay £4.90/month and that gives me unlimited calls, texts and all the data* I need.
*not a lot - 5GB maybe? But I'm rarely away from wifi for long - I've never got near the limit, anyway
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
One thing that was missed in our last debate our oil&gas licenses was what effect the massive tax relief available for O&G investment is having on the demand for those licences.
This is not my area so don't really understand how the incentives work in this part of the economy. When profit for O&G firms is taxed so heavily until 2029, surely that means it's optimal to invest heavily in new fields and wait for the tax rates to be cut from 2029 onward?
The Sunak/Hunt taxes meant many of the North Sea independents needed a soft restructure from their banks. Labour’s manifesto proposals have a drastic impact on the modelling forecasts, mainly due to the removal of investment allowances. We’ll no doubt see similar, the last remaining Oil and Gas banks rigging the assumptions in their lending models and hoping prices stay above $70-75 for the next 1-2 years to bail them out the problem until many of them phase out the sector. In short, it is not a friendly investment environment for Uk North Sea.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
One reason in the UK for lower EV sales is the expected residue prices (i.e. at the end of the 2/3/4 year lease) are far lower than they were 3 years ago. So a Tesla on lease now costs way more than a lease from 2/3 years ago.
Two issues.
1. Most EVs are sold new as company cars primarily for the tax breaks, and there’s very little second-hand market for them. 2. High interest rates are leading to more people keeping old cars or trading down.
I'm not so sure about that even the small business owners I know have leased rather than bought their cars outright...
1. The new sales are mostly to lease companies, rather than to businesses directly. 2. A whole load of business leases are being extended, and personal leases being bought out and refinanced.
One example, a friend of mine. He has a fancy car that was £80k list price three years ago. He paid £1k a month for a three year lease. The same car now is £100k and £2.5k a month to lease, and his £1k budget gets him the poverty-spec £40k version of the same car rather than the top-of-the-range spec. So he kept the car he has already and refinanced it instead of giving it back.
Refinancing a car !!!
Cripes.
Faced with replacing a top model with a bottom model of the same car, most of us would keep the fancy one and refinance it too.
The whole car finance market has been totally mad while interest rates were zero, and has now been knocked back to Earth with a massive bump.
It's fun when a throwaway comment causes you to massively reevaluate what age another poster is. I assumed Nigelb was in his early forties. I don't know why, and it's not as if you get many Nigels in their forties these days.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
I feel like there was an earlier study for a different shingles vaccine (or maybe chicken-pox - would be the same vaccines though, would it?) based on a roll-out in Ireland with similar conclusions - and that was, due to rollout being based on birth date, was able to do a causal analysis with regression discontinuity*.
I don't recall where I read this, may have been on here and posted by you.
*compares people just above and below the birth date cut off, who are effectively randomised across that cut-off as a few weeks/months either way shouldn't be linked to outcome other than through the vaccine cut off.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
If we buy fewer fossil fuels, that means that the price of fossil fuels declines, which is good for the developing world.
But it doesn't reduce the consumption of fossil fuels overall.
Thanks to China and the developed world fossil fuel consumption is already peaking: even BP thinks that 2025 is peak world oil demand.
In 2020 they said we had already passed peak oil demand, so their predictions need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Even if they are right, it still means that substantial emissions will continue.
The idea that we can substantially change the trajectory without making people poorer is a fantasy, even if we succeed in increasing the proportion of renewable energy.
It's fun when a throwaway comment causes you to massively reevaluate what age another poster is. I assumed Nigelb was in his early forties. I don't know why, and it's not as if you get many Nigels in their forties these days.
Nigel Farage is able to say "those of us in our sixties" since April. Coincidence? Hard to say...
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
It's fun when a throwaway comment causes you to massively reevaluate what age another poster is. I assumed Nigelb was in his early forties. I don't know why, and it's not as if you get many Nigels in their forties these days.
Nigel Farage is able to say "those of us in our sixties" since April. Coincidence? Hard to say...
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
The sooner we can get off fossil fuels, the better. So far, every month of this year has set a new record for the global average surface temperature for that month. We need to cut our use of fossil fuels pronto in order to mitigate the risk of climate catastrophe.
It can't be done in the short term without impoverishing the developing world because they are the reason fossil fuel consumption is still rising.
If we buy fewer fossil fuels, that means that the price of fossil fuels declines, which is good for the developing world.
But it doesn't reduce the consumption of fossil fuels overall.
Thanks to China and the developed world fossil fuel consumption is already peaking: even BP thinks that 2025 is peak world oil demand.
In 2020 they said we had already passed peak oil demand, so their predictions need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Even if they are right, it still means that substantial emissions will continue.
The idea that we can substantially change the trajectory without making people poorer is a fantasy, even if we succeed in increasing the proportion of renewable energy.
I note the strike price for Hinckley C is £92.50 (in 2012 prices - so presumably inflation linked Edit: Currently £128.09 /MWh*) - which looked shit, then amazing and now with falling energy prices looks utterly shit again !
I note the strike price for Hinckley C is £92.50 (in 2012 prices - so presumably inflation linked) - which looked shit, then amazing and now with falling energy prices looks utterly shit again !
Not only is it utterly shit, but that kind of inflexible energy supply is exactly what the country doesn't need.
If they are cheap enough the orientation doesn't matter.
Weight might be an issue with pre-existing warehouses; they are built to cope with the usual dead loads and live loads. Whilst solar panels and their peripherals don't weigh that much, over that sort of area the weight (and hence load) add up.
I do wonder how panels raised up off an existing roof affects the wind loading; if the wind gets behind them, they could act like a sail.
That's exactly what worries me about my house. It's perfectly angled to the prevailing gales for any panel with a space below to act as a lifting slat. I'm eyeing up the (new) timber shed but it's in just as bad a position - on a raised plinth where the gales are funnelled across its length. It's already screwed and strapped down to its plinth as i tis.
There are solutions around if you look, including ground mounting if you have space.
IIRC my Scottish Building Regs, roofs are strapped down rather than held down by their own mass as in England (?) - so it is about whether that provides enough reserve tiedown security for the extra wind load.
As an anecdata check, do roofs themselves often blow off in Scotland in Gaels' Gales? If not that often that would suggest robustness.
I'd have a drive around the area looking for similar installations that catch the wind, and knock to ask them about what they had done, and who did it.
Buildhub.co.uk (forum where I am a moderator) would also be able to answer. We have lots of Scots, and people who have fled there to be able build a house for less than a King's Ransom.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
A solar panel is not like a barrel of oil. A barrel of oil is consumed, and once it's consumed, you need to buy another one.
Once a solar panel is installed, it's producing energy... well... indefinitely. So, the makers of panels can "cut off" additional solar production capacity, but every day that becomes less of an issue because more panels are already installed.
I was already wondering after reading your earlier comments, what is the working life of a solar panel?
Well, in the first couple of years you'll lose 7-8% of production capacity as you get some surface oxidation. After that annual power losses are typically very small - say 0.25%-0.5% per year. So it'll take a long time before they become worth replacing.
Anecdotal evidence but here's the annual output from the 4 kW of panels we installed in 2013. No obvious drop-off here:
I just wanted to memorialise the fact that after 25 years of Vodaphone , I have given them the inverted Winston Churchill salute. I hope my new provider will not let me down.
Was there an issue? Literally half way through setting up a new contract with them for mobile and broadband.
All this excited talk of solar panels while fibre and 5g is still infuriatingly inconsistent, even in a big city .
Remember the "correct price" for a SIM only plan should be about 7 to 8 pounds a month. Mobile telephony is one of the areas of the economy that has happily not been subject to the inflation the rest of it has.
Yes, bagged that and used it to piggy back a current customer discount on the broadband.
I am currently paying EE £19 a month and they provide me with unlimited calls, data, and texts, uncapped speeds, and Apple Music which normally costs me £10.99 a month.
(2nd of 4 Yorkshiremen) Ee lad, I pay £4.90/month and that gives me unlimited calls, texts and all the data* I need.
*not a lot - 5GB maybe? But I'm rarely away from wifi for long - I've never got near the limit, anyway
I used to use around 400 GB a month.
I occasionally go past EE’s fair usage policy of 600 GB per month.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
A solar panel is not like a barrel of oil. A barrel of oil is consumed, and once it's consumed, you need to buy another one.
Once a solar panel is installed, it's producing energy... well... indefinitely. So, the makers of panels can "cut off" additional solar production capacity, but every day that becomes less of an issue because more panels are already installed.
I was already wondering after reading your earlier comments, what is the working life of a solar panel?
Well, in the first couple of years you'll lose 7-8% of production capacity as you get some surface oxidation. After that annual power losses are typically very small - say 0.25%-0.5% per year. So it'll take a long time before they become worth replacing.
Anecdotal evidence but here's the annual output from the 4 kW of panels we installed in 2013. No obvious drop-off here:
I feel like there was an earlier study for a different shingles vaccine (or maybe chicken-pox - would be the same vaccines though, would it?) based on a roll-out in Ireland with similar conclusions - and that was, due to rollout being based on birth date, was able to do a causal analysis with regression discontinuity*.
I don't recall where I read this, may have been on here and posted by you.
*compares people just above and below the birth date cut off, who are effectively randomised across that cut-off as a few weeks/months either way shouldn't be linked to outcome other than through the vaccine cut off.
Slightly surprising though that something apparently this significant has not apparently yet made it to full publication yet if the results hold up to scrutiny.
Due you have any figures for the current UK/world % of energy from solar/renewables and future projections for the same with timescales?
Also what will it mean for the future of petrol vehicles? Cheaper petrol and less oil dependence means petrol vehicles become cheaper to run and less likely to become redundant? Or Electric vehicles become so cheap to run that petrol vehicles are too expensive a choice comparatively? (Vested interest here. We are thinking of buying a diesel campervan soon.)
https://grid.iamkate.com/ gives the live figures. Currently 34.3% renewables (10.2% solar), 24.3% fossil fuels, 12.6% nuclear, 7.1% biomass, 10% from France, 1.1% pumped storage, etc.
I just wanted to memorialise the fact that after 25 years of Vodaphone , I have given them the inverted Winston Churchill salute. I hope my new provider will not let me down.
Was there an issue? Literally half way through setting up a new contract with them for mobile and broadband.
All this excited talk of solar panels while fibre and 5g is still infuriatingly inconsistent, even in a big city .
Remember the "correct price" for a SIM only plan should be about 7 to 8 pounds a month. Mobile telephony is one of the areas of the economy that has happily not been subject to the inflation the rest of it has.
Yes, bagged that and used it to piggy back a current customer discount on the broadband.
I am currently paying EE £19 a month and they provide me with unlimited calls, data, and texts, uncapped speeds, and Apple Music which normally costs me £10.99 a month.
(2nd of 4 Yorkshiremen) Ee lad, I pay £4.90/month and that gives me unlimited calls, texts and all the data* I need.
*not a lot - 5GB maybe? But I'm rarely away from wifi for long - I've never got near the limit, anyway
I used to use around 400 GB a month.
I occasionally go past EE’s fair usage policy of 600 GB per month.
I just wanted to memorialise the fact that after 25 years of Vodaphone , I have given them the inverted Winston Churchill salute. I hope my new provider will not let me down.
Was there an issue? Literally half way through setting up a new contract with them for mobile and broadband.
All this excited talk of solar panels while fibre and 5g is still infuriatingly inconsistent, even in a big city .
Remember the "correct price" for a SIM only plan should be about 7 to 8 pounds a month. Mobile telephony is one of the areas of the economy that has happily not been subject to the inflation the rest of it has.
Yes, bagged that and used it to piggy back a current customer discount on the broadband.
I am currently paying EE £19 a month and they provide me with unlimited calls, data, and texts, uncapped speeds, and Apple Music which normally costs me £10.99 a month.
(2nd of 4 Yorkshiremen) Ee lad, I pay £4.90/month and that gives me unlimited calls, texts and all the data* I need.
*not a lot - 5GB maybe? But I'm rarely away from wifi for long - I've never got near the limit, anyway
I used to use around 400 GB a month.
I occasionally go past EE’s fair usage policy of 600 GB per month.
Are you running your whole company’s pirate media server on that connection?
It's fun when a throwaway comment causes you to massively reevaluate what age another poster is. I assumed Nigelb was in his early forties. I don't know why, and it's not as if you get many Nigels in their forties these days.
XTC started to make plans for Nigel in 1979, so there are very few Nigels under 45 in the UK.
I just wanted to memorialise the fact that after 25 years of Vodaphone , I have given them the inverted Winston Churchill salute. I hope my new provider will not let me down.
Was there an issue? Literally half way through setting up a new contract with them for mobile and broadband.
All this excited talk of solar panels while fibre and 5g is still infuriatingly inconsistent, even in a big city .
Remember the "correct price" for a SIM only plan should be about 7 to 8 pounds a month. Mobile telephony is one of the areas of the economy that has happily not been subject to the inflation the rest of it has.
Yes, bagged that and used it to piggy back a current customer discount on the broadband.
I am currently paying EE £19 a month and they provide me with unlimited calls, data, and texts, uncapped speeds, and Apple Music which normally costs me £10.99 a month.
(2nd of 4 Yorkshiremen) Ee lad, I pay £4.90/month and that gives me unlimited calls, texts and all the data* I need.
*not a lot - 5GB maybe? But I'm rarely away from wifi for long - I've never got near the limit, anyway
I used to use around 400 GB a month.
I occasionally go past EE’s fair usage policy of 600 GB per month.
Are you running your whole company’s pirate media server on that connection?
If they are cheap enough the orientation doesn't matter.
Weight might be an issue with pre-existing warehouses; they are built to cope with the usual dead loads and live loads. Whilst solar panels and their peripherals don't weigh that much, over that sort of area the weight (and hence load) add up.
I do wonder how panels raised up off an existing roof affects the wind loading; if the wind gets behind them, they could act like a sail.
That's exactly what worries me about my house. It's perfectly angled to the prevailing gales for any panel with a space below to act as a lifting slat. I'm eyeing up the (new) timber shed but it's in just as bad a position - on a raised plinth where the gales are funnelled across its length. It's already screwed and strapped down to its plinth as i tis.
There are solutions around if you look, including ground mounting if you have space.
IIRC my Scottish Building Regs, roofs are strapped down rather than held down by their own mass as in England (?) - so it is about whether that provides enough reserve tiedown security for the extra wind load.
As an anecdata check, do roofs themselves often blow off in Scotland in Gaels' Gales? If not that often that would suggest robustness.
I'd have a drive around the area looking for similar installations that catch the wind, and knock to ask them about what they had done, and who did it.
Buildhub.co.uk (forum where I am a moderator) would also be able to answer. We have lots of Scots, and people who have fled there to be able build a house for less than a King's Ransom.
It's not so much the issue of it being mounted but the extra upthrust the mounting can enforce aerodynamically because of the space underneath. Mine is one of the houses that periodically gets ridge tiles missing. And none of the local installations on similar houses look that great. Mind, we haven't had a really bad storm for a few years!
I'd prefer ground mounting or combining it with a new shed etc if/when we move house to somewhere else.
I just wanted to memorialise the fact that after 25 years of Vodaphone , I have given them the inverted Winston Churchill salute. I hope my new provider will not let me down.
Was there an issue? Literally half way through setting up a new contract with them for mobile and broadband.
All this excited talk of solar panels while fibre and 5g is still infuriatingly inconsistent, even in a big city .
Remember the "correct price" for a SIM only plan should be about 7 to 8 pounds a month. Mobile telephony is one of the areas of the economy that has happily not been subject to the inflation the rest of it has.
Yes, bagged that and used it to piggy back a current customer discount on the broadband.
I am currently paying EE £19 a month and they provide me with unlimited calls, data, and texts, uncapped speeds, and Apple Music which normally costs me £10.99 a month.
(2nd of 4 Yorkshiremen) Ee lad, I pay £4.90/month and that gives me unlimited calls, texts and all the data* I need.
*not a lot - 5GB maybe? But I'm rarely away from wifi for long - I've never got near the limit, anyway
I used to use around 400 GB a month.
I occasionally go past EE’s fair usage policy of 600 GB per month.
Are you running your whole company’s pirate media server on that connection?
Nadine really laying into Sue Gray and spilling dirt on some of her colleagues on Twitter. Apparently more to come this evening. I’m not going to repost her nonsense but it isn’t pleasant.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
Here's a good summary
Solar panels have become cheap due to several factors
Improvements in the efficiency of converting sunlight to electricity. Cheaper manufacturing processes. China's solar panel industrial boom. Swanson's law, which states that as production and shipment of solar panels double, panel prices drop by 20 percent.
I think that were going through a similar process with electric car batteries
Battery prices have dropped 55% since the start of last year. Which is insane.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons why Tesla has struggled. They got out first with massive battery factories with dramatically lower prices. And then the rest of the world caught up, and they lost the biggest part of their cost advantage.
Hmm… their battery storage business has a gross margin of 19% and grew 84% last quarter, with a >doubling of production capacity near completion.
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
One reason in the UK for lower EV sales is the expected residue prices (i.e. at the end of the 2/3/4 year lease) are far lower than they were 3 years ago. So a Tesla on lease now costs way more than a lease from 2/3 years ago.
Two issues.
1. Most EVs are sold new as company cars primarily for the tax breaks, and there’s very little second-hand market for them. 2. High interest rates are leading to more people keeping old cars or trading down.
I'm not so sure about that even the small business owners I know have leased rather than bought their cars outright...
There's a big tax advantage in getting your employer to set up a salary sacrifice scheme for EVs. The big win is you will be paying the lease on your car out of your pre tax income - similar to your pension contributions. There's a 2% tax rate but it's nothing compared with the rates for ICEs. Your employer gets a smaller win in getting reduced Employer NICs. The downside is that your employer holds the lease on what is effectively your private vehicle. Which means you will need to give it up if you leave your employment, and there may be an early termination penalty to pay in that case.
It's quite something to see the fields around Edinburgh Airport, in deepest, darkest Scotland, starting to be covered in solar panels.
If it makes sense to do it up here...
We're redoing the frontage of our house, and our builder said to us "do you want me to cover the concrete blocks with solar panels, it's cheaper than wood?"
Our front doesn't get much direct sunlight, but if it's the cheapest building material, then I mean... why not?
Is there an underlying reason why they have become cheap, other than Chinese manufacturing going crazy? Are they making them at a loss? Is there a risk they could cut supply and crush western economic growth?
A solar panel is not like a barrel of oil. A barrel of oil is consumed, and once it's consumed, you need to buy another one.
Once a solar panel is installed, it's producing energy... well... indefinitely. So, the makers of panels can "cut off" additional solar production capacity, but every day that becomes less of an issue because more panels are already installed.
I was already wondering after reading your earlier comments, what is the working life of a solar panel?
Well, in the first couple of years you'll lose 7-8% of production capacity as you get some surface oxidation. After that annual power losses are typically very small - say 0.25%-0.5% per year. So it'll take a long time before they become worth replacing.
Anecdotal evidence but here's the annual output from the 4 kW of panels we installed in 2013. No obvious drop-off here:
Nadine really laying into Sue Gray and spilling dirt on some of her colleagues on Twitter. Apparently more to come this evening. I’m not going to repost her nonsense but it isn’t pleasant.
If it is nonsense is it spilling dirt or throwing muck? Presumably has to be true to be spilling dirt.
One thing I have wondered about for some time: Would solar electricity be a good match for properly-designed energy-intensive manufacturing plants? For example, aluminum production. When the sun shines, make aluminum; when it doesn't, stop.
(I don't doubt that there have been studies of this idea, but I haven't seen anything, yet. In some deserts, it would be a fairly predictable day/night cycle, or so it seems to me.)
As one who once long ago briefly worked in an aluminum plant, tending to the pots where massive amounts of electricity were deployed converting bauxite into metal, am skeptical that you could actually make the process work on such as start and stop then start again basis.
BUT my limited experience is now half century behind us. And the plant where I once worked, built in 1940s, is now gone, replaced by large concrete slabs.
The GOP come up with a better line than 'Cackling Kamala' yet?
They're going hard on one of the old faithfuls - "lyin" - Trump even spelt it out at his latest rally. All feels a bit of a strain. The well is running dry, I think.
One thing I have wondered about for some time: Would solar electricity be a good match for properly-designed energy-intensive manufacturing plants? For example, aluminum production. When the sun shines, make aluminum; when it doesn't, stop.
(I don't doubt that there have been studies of this idea, but I haven't seen anything, yet. In some deserts, it would be a fairly predictable day/night cycle, or so it seems to me.)
As one who once long ago briefly worked in an aluminum plant, tending to the pots where massive amounts of electricity were deployed converting bauxite into metal, am skeptical that you could actually make the process work on such as start and stop then start again basis.
BUT my limited experience is now half century behind us. And the plant where I once worked, built in 1940s, is now gone, replaced by large concrete slabs.
That's not a very polite way to refer to your governing elites.
After all, many large concrete slabs are brighter than Donald Trump.
Nadine really laying into Sue Gray and spilling dirt on some of her colleagues on Twitter. Apparently more to come this evening. I’m not going to repost her nonsense but it isn’t pleasant.
If it is nonsense is it spilling dirt or throwing muck? Presumably has to be true to be spilling dirt.
Nadine may be too stupid to resist posting something libellous...
Even IF you do NOT agree with Robert in toto (we're not in Kansas anymore?) his posting AND subsequent comments are yet again proof positive that genuine expertise trumps (!) ideological sophistry ANY day.
Even IF you do NOT agree with Robert in toto (we're not in Kansas anymore?) his posting AND subsequent comments are yet again proof positive that genuine expertise trumps (!) ideological sophistry ANY day.
Even IF you do NOT agree with Robert in toto (we're not in Kansas anymore?) his posting AND subsequent comments are yet again proof positive that genuine expertise trumps (!) ideological sophistry ANY day.
"Portuguese town beloved by Byron turning into ‘amusement park’
People living in Sintra — once hailed as the most delightful town in Europe — say mass tourism has turned it into a ‘tourist hell’ amid calls for ‘guerrilla action’"”
This is only going to get worse. Partly for the reasons mentioned in the threader. Wealthier consumers - worldwide - all wanting to travel
It’s why, professionally, I get excited by a place like Aveyron which is gorgeous and sunny and charming and yet barely touristed. And then I go and ruin it
And then you write about it and a shit ton of tourists turn up and turn it into a tourist shithole...when will you take responsibility for that
Question for Robert - Seeing as how you are a quasi-Arizonan, if Sen. Mark Kelly ends up running for Vice President, in your humble (or not) opinion, what impact is this likely to have on voting intentions and results in the Great Grand Canyon (and Salt River) State?
Comments
The slowdown in their EV sales has more been one of higher consumer interest rates (and insurance premiums) hasn’t it?
eg: https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.4830846,-1.102473,690m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu
If they are cheap enough the orientation doesn't matter.
My view is that there are other reasons apart from energy prices to think that the next decade might be rather more benign than the last. Though I can't now remember what any of them are!
38.1% renewables, of which 4.9% solar
It's wind that currently dominates at 31.8%, more than any other single source. Followed by gas at 28.8%, then nuclear at 14.5%.
Must be the first time ever.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/20/fossil-fuel-use-reaches-global-record-despite-clean-energy-growth
I do wonder how panels raised up off an existing roof affects the wind loading; if the wind gets behind them, they could act like a sail.
1. Most EVs are sold new as company cars primarily for the tax breaks, and there’s very little second-hand market for them.
2. High interest rates are leading to more people keeping old cars or trading down.
(I don't doubt that there have been studies of this idea, but I haven't seen anything, yet. In some deserts, it would be a fairly predictable day/night cycle, or so it seems to me.)
But yes, at these PV prices, Australia should definitely be smelting and refining bauxite near the mines. Doubly so if combined with an international PR campaign to make dirty aluminium non regulatory compliant.
This is not my area so don't really understand how the incentives work in this part of the economy. When profit for O&G firms is taxed so heavily until 2029, surely that means it's optimal to invest heavily in new fields and wait for the tax rates to be cut from 2029 onward?
You can get flexible panels that install perfectly flat which could work well on a warehouse roof. On a domestic scale they are about 5kg / sq.m.
2. A whole load of business leases are being extended, and personal leases being bought out and refinanced.
One example, a friend of mine. He has a fancy car that was £80k list price three years ago. He paid £1k a month for a three year lease. The same car now is £100k and £2.5k a month to lease, and his £1k budget gets him the poverty-spec £40k version of the same car rather than the top-of-the-range spec. So he kept the car he has already and refinanced it instead of giving it back.
In those circs, only an obvious sale price net benefit or other concrete upfront cost factor will swing it.
The last Govt would not accept the principle that regulatory requirements should be used to set a higher minimum standard.
I'll just leave that there...
Cripes.
I pay about £8, and I have been an Apple-walled-garden refusenik since the 1980s, so I need to have a careful look around.
Especially to those of us in our sixties.
Study raises hopes that shingles vaccine may delay onset of dementia
Shingrix linked to substantial reduction in diagnoses in the six years after people received the shot
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/25/shingles-vaccine-shingrix-may-delay-dementia-onset-study
Available on the NHS when you hit 65.
*not a lot - 5GB maybe? But I'm rarely away from wifi for long - I've never got near the limit, anyway
The whole car finance market has been totally mad while interest rates were zero, and has now been knocked back to Earth with a massive bump.
I don't recall where I read this, may have been on here and posted by you.
*compares people just above and below the birth date cut off, who are effectively randomised across that cut-off as a few weeks/months either way shouldn't be linked to outcome other than through the vaccine cut off.
The idea that we can substantially change the trajectory without making people poorer is a fantasy, even if we succeed in increasing the proportion of renewable energy.
This is simply that oil is being outcompeted by other - cheaper - sources of energy.
* Go back 15 years; the number of hysterical books (like the Battle for Barrels) over the expected oil shortage was extraordinary.
In one of their scenarios (Net Zero), they predict oil demand has peaked. But it was not their central scenario.
If you look at this year's Energy Outlook, it is significantly more pessimistic on oil demand than the 2020 piece.
* https://www.renewable-energy-industry.com/news/press-releases/pm-7986-hinkley-point-c-electricity-from-new-british-nuclear-power-plant-costs-over-15-cents-per-kilowatt-hour#:~:text=The latest data from the,(14.8 ct/kWh).
IIRC my Scottish Building Regs, roofs are strapped down rather than held down by their own mass as in England (?) - so it is about whether that provides enough reserve tiedown security for the extra wind load.
As an anecdata check, do roofs themselves often blow off in Scotland in Gaels' Gales? If not that often that would suggest robustness.
I'd have a drive around the area looking for similar installations that catch the wind, and knock to ask them about what they had done, and who did it.
Buildhub.co.uk (forum where I am a moderator) would also be able to answer. We have lots of Scots, and people who have fled there to be able build a house for less than a King's Ransom.
2014 - 4,383 kWh
2015 - 4,123 kWh
2016 - 4,032 kWh
2017 - 3,920 kWh
2018 - 4,215 kWh
2019 - 4,077 kWh
2020 - 4,411 kWh
2021 - 4,017 kWh
2022 - 4,399 kWh
2023 - 4,181 kWh
I occasionally go past EE’s fair usage policy of 600 GB per month.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10246135/
Slightly surprising though that something apparently this significant has not apparently yet made it to full publication yet if the results hold up to scrutiny.
https://ourworldindata.org/
I use around 400MB per month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51y99yrj49o
Streaming UHD is a joy.
I'd prefer ground mounting or combining it with a new shed etc if/when we move house to somewhere else.
2559 kWh so far here. Poor but not as bad as 2016 or 2017 at this stage of the year.
BUT my limited experience is now half century behind us. And the plant where I once worked, built in 1940s, is now gone, replaced by large concrete slabs.
After all, many large concrete slabs are brighter than Donald Trump.
Even IF you do NOT agree with Robert in toto (we're not in Kansas anymore?) his posting AND subsequent comments are yet again proof positive that genuine expertise trumps (!) ideological sophistry ANY day.
Or rather kicks its sorry ass.
Even IF you do NOT agree with Robert in toto (we're not in Kansas anymore?) his posting AND subsequent comments are yet again proof positive that genuine expertise trumps (!) ideological sophistry ANY day.
Or rather kicks its sorry ass.
Even IF you do NOT agree with Robert in toto (we're not in Kansas anymore?) his posting AND subsequent comments are yet again proof positive that genuine expertise trumps (!) ideological sophistry ANY day.
Or rather kicks its sorry ass.
#New General Election Poll
🔵 Harris 44% (+1)
🔴 Trump 43%
Last poll Trump vs Biden - 🔴 Trump +4
Change polls #C - 2137 RV - 7/22-24
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1816529169817436199
Let the good times roll, then?
“The problem with J.D. Vance is he has no convictions,” said Beshear. “But I guess his running mate has 34.”