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Will David Cameron have a better vote share than Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 7 in General
imageWill David Cameron have a better vote share than Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

Things that might cause 'surprises' relative to polling. 11% refused is quite alot and if that has become politicsed (for example via Farage's attacks on pollsters) then they may not be random missing data. https://t.co/jRpufChj4t

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 421
    edited July 4
    Maybe… and like Labour in Skipton and Ripon a first?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Curse of the new thread - repost:

    @Pulpstar - thank you for a wonderful resource - I think, exit polls, then bed & get up 3.30ish to see constituencies of interest come in.

    From previous election coverage, who do PBers think will have the quickest results?

    Much as I'd enjoy watching Sturgeon chewing wasps all evening IIRC SKY were quickest off the mark last time?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Mirror image BJO, is that you?
  • Options
    I think Labour will get around 40%.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

    As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

    I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Extremely unlikely but hilarious scenario
    Labour 400 seats but lose
    Phillipson and Cooper to a Reform red wall surge
    Debonnaire to the Greens
    Streeting to Leanne Mohammed
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 4
    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Just voted in Islington North.

    A bit less busy at 11am than at the same time a couple of months ago for the Mayoral election - maybe 6 people inside at the same time as me, with one of them needing to do the paperwork to drop their postal vote in. No ID problems this time, as far as I could see.

    A couple of Corbyn campaigners at the gates, handing out stickers - I didn't see anyone refusing (apart from me!) Lots of people in the streets with Corbyn stickers, too.

    The only Labour campaigner in evidence was helping an elderly man, I think he'd been giving him a lift.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    Christmas after the bombs fell awaits us
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

    As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

    I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

    Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.
    Yeah, "I'll try to slow down things getting shitter and be nicer and more competent about it" is a harder sell, isn't it?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Weather wise, reasonable for Labour and Lib Dems today I think. Bright and breezy, quite optimistic conditions.

    Tomorrow looks dire. I hope Starmer’s aides have stocked up on umbrellas.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    edited July 4
    The difference with 2010 is the strength of the smaller parties. In 2010, Lab-Con-LD accounted for 88% of the vote. This poll suggests 67%.

    If Sunak's campaign had been any good, you'd have seen both the Green and Reform vote squeezed more by the main parties. The same logic applies for why May did so well against Corbyn.

    FWIW, my gut tells me that Lab-Con-LD will all do better than what the polls suggest, reverting to the pre-campaign trend, and account for more than 80% of total vote share.
  • Options
    WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 150
    Are we allowed to talk about postal vote observations, in the abstract yet? It can't really change anything. If no constituencies are mentioned or candidates?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,458
    TimS said:

    Weather wise, reasonable for Labour and Lib Dems today I think. Bright and breezy, quite optimistic conditions.

    Tomorrow looks dire. I hope Starmer’s aides have stocked up on umbrellas.

    They'd be mad (or recently hired from Conservative Head Office) not to be ready for the rain!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

    There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    It's a bit like the FA cup final. You dislike the Blues, but you also have some bad memories of the Reds, so it's more about the Blues losing than real enthusiasm for the Reds.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    edited July 4
    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

    As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

    I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

    Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.
    Yeah, "I'll try to slow down things getting shitter and be nicer and more competent about it" is a harder sell, isn't it?
    Decade of national renewal is not so much jam tomorrow as jam when your infant school kids take their A levels
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    edited July 4
    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    For film buffs, The Conversation is getting a cinematic re-release:
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/article/2024/jul/04/the-conversation-review-gene-hackman-is-unforgettable-in-coppolas-paranoid-classic

    Great movie.
    Watch out for Harrison Ford, then unknown, in a minor role.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

    As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

    I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

    Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.
    Yeah, "I'll try to slow down things getting shitter and be nicer and more competent about it" is a harder sell, isn't it?
    Decade of national renewal is not so much jam tomorrow as jam when your infant school kids take their A levels
    With a hefty sugar tax applied and a layer of mould grown on top? :wink:
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    The lack of enthusiasm is one thing, but this election also feels less important to me. I don't really mind who wins here, I'm much more worried about what happens in the US.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Just voted in Blyth and Ashington. Very quiet. No sign of any Party people whatsoever.
    Will have the shortest wait of any of youse to know the result.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    Voter strike in safe seats = some very odd results
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    FF43 said:

    My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

    There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

    He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

    As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

    I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

    Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.
    Blair’s first term was rather conservative, with a small ‘c’. It was after 2001 that the spending taps were properly turned on.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    They lose the election.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    On Topic

    Not sure about Cameron but Jezza and May will definitely unless the Polls are underestimating SKS
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    For @Mexicanpete and others who are inexpicably bullish on the Tories

    Con seats 250-299 is 400.0 on BF Exchange now
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    A slightly misleading image, as it was produced at 1937 on Monday, just after a clutch of polls had been released from the least Labour-friendly pollsters all showing a 15 pp lead.

    LOESS smoothing is tail-sensitive, so this produced a major effect on the chart you posted.

    Since then, there've been 13 other polls published - all but one has had a higher lead (17.7 pp on average).
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    Then it is 1992 all over again!

    Deja vu is a wonderful thing...
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    They lose the election.
    The chances of that happening are very, very low.

    A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    God help us. Look

    Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

    Leader - Senior Lawyer.
    Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
    Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
    Education - Junior in local government.
    Home Secretary - None.
    Health - Public Sector consultant.
    Energy - None.
    Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
    Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
    Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
    Paymaster - None.
    Justice - Junior Lawyer.
    Business and Trade - None.
    DWP - None.
    Defence - Journalist.
    Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
    Culture - Cellist, Author.
    Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
    Environment - Publisher.
    Science - Aid Worker.
    Northern Ireland - None.
    Scotland - Events and TV Management.
    Wales - HR.
    Attorney General - Lawyer
    International Development - None.
    Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
    Campaign Coordinator - None.
    Leader of the House of Commons - None.

    https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    edited July 4
    Averaging the last 21 polls (including MRP) gives:

    Labour 38.9%
    Conservative 21.2%
    Reform 16.0%
    Lib Dem 11.1%.

    The Conservatives are down about 2% on the start of the campaign, Labour down about 5%, the Lib Dems up about 1%, and Reform up about 5%.

    IMHO, Reform have taken both from people planning to vote Conservative pre-campaign, and from Con-Lab switchers.

    Labour have - in places - gone tactically to the Lib Dems, but also to left wing alternatives, knowing that victory is certain.

  • Options

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    Hi William Glenn, perhaps we should ask William Glenn but have you seen SKS's own ratings during this time? It is not because Labour has got more unpopular.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    boulay said:

    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

    You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    FF43 said:

    My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

    There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

    He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.
    I think it really depends on what Labour do in government. If they govern as they've campaigned, the honeymoon will be very short indeed. I think some people will give them the benefit of the doubt if the line is "we can't fix 15 years of Tory wrecking overnight", but if some things don't improve quickly I think they're buggered. This is why I hope they don't do a Macron and start banging on about immigration - because it will only make Reform more popular if they do. They can decide to meet people's needs and reduce the blown up grievances people have towards immigrants - it's just will they? It was clear the Tories never would - the only thing they were willing to try was hitting the big "government does harm to outsiders" button. Labour need to use the "government actually helps people" lever.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    edited July 4
    boulay said:

    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

    Chalk is locally very popular. With only 11% nationally, I fear that several Lib Dem targets may end up being missed. It is why their targeting needed to be so disciplined.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    148grss said:

    I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

    Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909
    @Peter_the_Punter

    FPT:

    LibDems were 20/1 with Bet365 to win Tewkesbury 24th May, I bet a tenner.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later :D
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Can report dog was actively encouraged to go into the polling station and was made big fuss of by all the polling staff.

    We are usually Lib Dems out of choice but both switched to Labour tactically this time.

    Think the Tories will hold on here - Chester South and Eddisbury - but having said that there has been no sign of a Tory campaign and we passed 7 Labour canvassers on the way to the polling station.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited July 4
    ...

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    They lose the election.
    The chances of that happening are very, very low.

    A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly
    I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited July 4

    148grss said:

    I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

    Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
    Hasn't happened in Scotland, if anything a bit of a reduction overall (Scottish Socialists now kaput, were bigger than Alba is now).

    Butd that's partly the weird voting system, perhaps.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    boulay said:

    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

    You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!
    It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.
  • Options
    Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?

    https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1808754800550354952

    The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...
    Leon said:

    God help us. Look

    Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

    Leader - Senior Lawyer.
    Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
    Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
    Education - Junior in local government.
    Home Secretary - None.
    Health - Public Sector consultant.
    Energy - None.
    Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
    Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
    Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
    Paymaster - None.
    Justice - Junior Lawyer.
    Business and Trade - None.
    DWP - None.
    Defence - Journalist.
    Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
    Culture - Cellist, Author.
    Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
    Environment - Publisher.
    Science - Aid Worker.
    Northern Ireland - None.
    Scotland - Events and TV Management.
    Wales - HR.
    Attorney General - Lawyer
    International Development - None.
    Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
    Campaign Coordinator - None.
    Leader of the House of Commons - None.

    https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Not enough journalists and columnists?
  • Options

    ...

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    They lose the election.
    The chances of that happening are very, very low.

    A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly
    I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?
    Nah wasn't the other William Glenn trolling?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    MODERATORS

    Can you please not "close" a discussion immediately as I was editing my answer to Farooq's compo and it's gone into the ether.
    <<<</<<<<<
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    edited July 4

    FF43 said:

    My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

    There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

    He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.
    The adage applies that no-one wins elections, you only lose them. Elections are zero sum. Labour is doing extraordinarily well only because the Tories are doing extraordinarily badly.

    And yet. The other side of the zero sum applies too. Labour are doing well because most people think they are better than the others, by a big margin. I think Starmer can take credit for that.

    An anecdote on this. I don't plan to vote Labour myself but reviewing the various leaflets that came though my door, only the Labour one made any sense. They are very serious people. That seriousness comes from Starmer
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

    Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
    But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
  • Options
    The moderators these days eat tripe for breakfast.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    Agreed but it will mean Starmer has a level of goodwill, at least initially, that goes well beyond Labour's own vote. I really think 80% of the country just wants rid of the current version of the Conservative Party. Including some like BigG who have even ended up voting for it.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

    There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

    He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.
    The adage applies that no-one wins elections, you only lose them. Elections are zero sum. Labour is doing extraordinarily well only because the Tories are doing extraordinarily badly.

    And yet. The other side of the zero sum applies too. Labour are doing well because most people think they are better than the others, by a big margin. I think Starmer can take credit for that.
    Starmer deserves credit for taking on, eventually, the Corbynistas and Hamas apologists that infected the party previously.

    Better late than never.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Pulpstar said:

    MODERATORS

    Can you please not "close" a discussion immediately as I was editing my answer to Farooq's compo and it's gone into the ether.

    Vanilla glitch.

    I've stopped it closing old threads 10 mins after a new one is published.
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    ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    I'm inclined to think the Conservative vote today might be a bit higher, and the Reform vote a tiny bit lower, than the final polls suggested.

    A result something like this wouldn't surprise me: Labour 425 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 52, SNP 19, Reform UK 5, Plaid Cymru 3, and Green 2

    (That's my personal feeling, not the official UK-Elect forecast, which remains unchanged at: Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 204. It's at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240703ForecastUKFinal.html )
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    ...

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    They lose the election.
    The chances of that happening are very, very low.

    A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly
    I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?
    Nah wasn't the other William Glenn trolling?
    I can never keep track of which is Euro Federalist William Glenn and which is full fat Trumpster William Glenn.
  • Options

    ...

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    They lose the election.
    The chances of that happening are very, very low.

    A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly
    I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?
    Nah wasn't the other William Glenn trolling?
    I can never keep track of which is Euro Federalist William Glenn and which is full fat Trumpster William Glenn.
    Nah those were the other William Glenns.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    Stocky said:

    @Peter_the_Punter

    FPT:

    LibDems were 20/1 with Bet365 to win Tewkesbury 24th May, I bet a tenner.

    That is ace punting, whatever the result.

    For the record I think it will be within 2,000 votes either way.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

    You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!
    It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.
    There will be many more though. BigGs and their wives, Heathener's Surrey Tory.

    It's really notable how dark and nervous the mood is over the main opposition parties today, completely at odds with the polling seat predictions. I think there's a sense the electorate are jumpy, they may or may not bother to vote, they may experiment with Reform or the Greens or they may not, they may vote tactically or they may think the election's a done deal and vote with their heart, and they may just decide to give the Tories one last go.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770
    Kind of an off the wall question so apologies.

    Does anyone know if there is a record anywhere (or can be collated easily) of the number of seats that changed hands at each GE. I don't mean just from Losing party to Winning Party but actually overall including between other parties. I am just interested to see what the records are.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later :D
    Revenge, best served cold? :wink:
    https://www.stjulian.com/store/sweet-revenge

    (never tried, I just idly wondered and then googled whether there was a wine called revenge, to be served cold)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Offtopic, but this is an interesting story, that of a Russian soldier who defected to the West. He doesn’t seem too happy about the war, and neither do many of his former colleagues.

    https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1808594524760948833
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    Are we allowed to talk about postal vote observations, in the abstract yet? It can't really change anything. If no constituencies are mentioned or candidates?

    They’re all worthless
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 4
    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    It's a bit like the FA cup final. You dislike the Blues, but you also have some bad memories of the Reds, so it's more about the Blues losing than real enthusiasm for the Reds.
    I was thinking similar. We’re like Scotland fans cheering for Slovakia, in the game where Slovakia actually wins.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    ...

    Leon said:

    God help us. Look

    Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

    Leader - Senior Lawyer.
    Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
    Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
    Education - Junior in local government.
    Home Secretary - None.
    Health - Public Sector consultant.
    Energy - None.
    Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
    Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
    Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
    Paymaster - None.
    Justice - Junior Lawyer.
    Business and Trade - None.
    DWP - None.
    Defence - Journalist.
    Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
    Culture - Cellist, Author.
    Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
    Environment - Publisher.
    Science - Aid Worker.
    Northern Ireland - None.
    Scotland - Events and TV Management.
    Wales - HR.
    Attorney General - Lawyer
    International Development - None.
    Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
    Campaign Coordinator - None.
    Leader of the House of Commons - None.

    https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Not enough journalists and columnists?
    Not a single bloody flintknapper amongst them. What chance have we got?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

    Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
    But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
    It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later :D
    Revenge, best served cold? :wink:
    https://www.stjulian.com/store/sweet-revenge

    (never tried, I just idly wondered and then googled whether there was a wine called revenge, to be served cold)
    I like it. I may just make a label to stick over the existing bottle!
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    We have never really been here before. 80% of the voters (probably including a few Tory voters) want the Tories out. SFAICS that is by far the most important driver of today's pattern - the % of voters who will vote so as to get the Tories out; much more important than getting Labour in.

    But the effect will, I think, be the same as there are so many seats where only two parties could win, either Lab or Con. The increase in LD seats will be 95-100% at the expense of Tory seats, it won't lose them for Labour.

    There will be a few oddities where Tories scrape in by tactical votes not working but the general effect will be a Labour landslide on a lowish vote.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 4

    ...

    Leon said:

    God help us. Look

    Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

    Leader - Senior Lawyer.
    Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
    Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
    Education - Junior in local government.
    Home Secretary - None.
    Health - Public Sector consultant.
    Energy - None.
    Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
    Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
    Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
    Paymaster - None.
    Justice - Junior Lawyer.
    Business and Trade - None.
    DWP - None.
    Defence - Journalist.
    Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
    Culture - Cellist, Author.
    Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
    Environment - Publisher.
    Science - Aid Worker.
    Northern Ireland - None.
    Scotland - Events and TV Management.
    Wales - HR.
    Attorney General - Lawyer
    International Development - None.
    Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
    Campaign Coordinator - None.
    Leader of the House of Commons - None.

    https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Not enough journalists and columnists?
    At least an experienced journalist would have wide knowledge of the world, meeting all kinds of people, from businessmen to hoi polloi, from politicians to celebs to murderers

    "Events management"

    "Public policy lecturer"

    "Data privacy lawyer"

    As someone on TwiX has quippped, "The B Ark in Hithchiker's Guide to the Galaxy has just unloaded"

    I despise these people
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483

    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later :D
    My pheasant is gently warming for later. From freezer to fridge last night when I found it.
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    Hold on the SNP are on 6% in the newest IPSOS poll?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Eabhal said:

    Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations

    They have come out solidly for Reform, and are eating the Greens for lunch.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

    You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!
    It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.
    That's fair!

    I thought for a minute that you were being socially irresponsible, but we do need 50 or 60 of them to make it and better the sane ones than the loonies....
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    AlsoLei said:

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    A slightly misleading image, as it was produced at 1937 on Monday, just after a clutch of polls had been released from the least Labour-friendly pollsters all showing a 15 pp lead.

    LOESS smoothing is tail-sensitive, so this produced a major effect on the chart you posted.

    Since then, there've been 13 other polls published - all but one has had a higher lead (17.7 pp on average).
    William has posted the most recent graphic.

    Labour average 39%, compared to 44% at the start. But, that's quite sufficient to win big.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770

    Afternoon all. I'm still around but have been too busy to post here, and haven't had time to do anything much on the betting side either. My only punt is a sell of the Conservatives on the spreads at 115. Fingers crossed on that one.

    Yesterday I got a canvassing call from the Tories, in what should be an incredibly safe seat. It's never happened before. I did warn them in 2019....

    Afternoon Richard. Really good to hear from you. I was just thinking about you yesterday with regard to those people I have ever had bets with on here. Honours Even so far ;)
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    No-ones talking about that because, due to splitting, they're going to win a massive majority anyway, but it's very noticeable all the same.
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 822

    Hold on the SNP are on 6% in the newest IPSOS poll?

    The John Swinney effect!
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

    You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!
    It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.
    That's fair!

    I thought for a minute that you were being socially irresponsible, but we do need 50 or 60 of them to make it and better the sane ones than the loonies....
    When you end up with 220 Tories I will remind you of your "socially responsible" voting.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909
    edited July 4
    My, how things have changed.

    See below: In Wycombe Steve Baker was 1/200 to win in 2010. Now he is 7/1.

    "A £3,000 bet on Mr Baker stands to gain just £15 – while Labour and Lib Dem supporters have as much chance of winning as the Ivory Coast have of lifting the World Cup."

    https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/4999377.long-odds-on-labour-or-lib-dem-election-win-in-wycombe-buckinghamshire/
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770
    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations

    They have come out solidly for Reform, and are eating the Greens for lunch.
    Vegetarian Bullies?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    Looking at my bf book can I make a plea:

    Will people *please* not vote for Reform as I am on at all prices below 14%.

    I know for some of you this will be hard eg @kinabalu, who I'm sure won't alter his vote especially if it means me losing money over it but I am imploring you all.

    tia
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later :D
    I’ve probably cursed any chance of a Tory revival by not having a bottle of pink champagne on ice as I did in 1992….
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    Afternoon all. I'm still around but have been too busy to post here, and haven't had time to do anything much on the betting side either. My only punt is a sell of the Conservatives on the spreads at 115. Fingers crossed on that one.

    Yesterday I got a canvassing call from the Tories, in what should be an incredibly safe seat. It's never happened before. I did warn them in 2019....

    Too busy looking through the Farr's sale, I'll warrant.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    IanB2 said:

    There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

    Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

    My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later :D
    I’ve probably cursed any chance of a Tory revival by not having a bottle of pink champagne on ice as I did in 1992….
    Stylish! I like it :+1:
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909
    edited July 4

    Stocky said:

    @Peter_the_Punter

    FPT:

    LibDems were 20/1 with Bet365 to win Tewkesbury 24th May, I bet a tenner.

    That is ace punting, whatever the result.

    For the record I think it will be within 2,000 votes either way.
    I've got 30 constituency bets and overall they are looking very good indeed - but this good work will negated bigly if just one bet goes the wrong way (Corbyn wins Islington North).
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    The polling for the leaders is either wrong or the polls are showing tactical voting. Whilst SKS's ratings go up - and in many places have reached net positive or all time highs - Labour's polling has dropped.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

    What if their vote just fails to turn up?

    image

    No-ones talking about that because, due to splitting, they're going to win a massive majority anyway, but it's very noticeable all the same.
    Another week or two and REF would be well ahead of CON
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations

    They have come out solidly for Reform, and are eating the Greens for lunch.
    Vegetarian Bullies?
    More like constipated. Standard canine remedy.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...
    TimS said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

    Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

    You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!
    It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.
    There will be many more though. BigGs and their wives, Heathener's Surrey Tory.

    It's really notable how dark and nervous the mood is over the main opposition parties today, completely at odds with the polling seat predictions. I think there's a sense the electorate are jumpy, they may or may not bother to vote, they may experiment with Reform or the Greens or they may not, they may vote tactically or they may think the election's a done deal and vote with their heart, and they may just decide to give the Tories one last go.
    The Tories are bullish because they seldom lose, and the rest of us nervous because we are often in the category of close but no cigar.

    You may be right, but why would the electorate make a conscious decision to give the "Tories one last go" unless they bought the tax bombshell, the supermajority fear and Labour having been the government for the last 14 years and they must be removed.
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    johntjohnt Posts: 166
    Looking through the declaration times, and for anyone who does not trust the exit poll, I don't think there will be long to wait and we will get a pretty clear idea of how bad (or good) a night it is for the Tories shortly after midnight when Basildon is due to declare. Currently EC has it going to Labour (comfortably) despite the fact that it had a large Tory majority. If it does go easily then I don't see the Tories getting 100 seats or more. After that I am trying to work out what will be the first key seat for the Tory/Lib Dem battleground in the south to declare. Maybe Torbay at 2 am? That battleground was critical to Cameron in 2015 and if it unwinds to any great extent it could cap a very bad night for them.
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    ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 913
    Isn't a strong reason for Labour vote being down so much but the seat total being so high due to people deciding through the campaign as to what's the best way to vote tactically in to get rid of the Tories under FPTP.

    Under a different system I've no doubt the patterns would be very different.
This discussion has been closed.