Will David Cameron have a better vote share than Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

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Will David Cameron have a better vote share than Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

Things that might cause 'surprises' relative to polling. 11% refused is quite alot and if that has become politicsed (for example via Farage's attacks on pollsters) then they may not be random missing data. https://t.co/jRpufChj4t

Read the full story here

Simon_Peach

Maybe… and like Labour in Skipton and Ripon a first?

CarlottaVance

Curse of the new thread - repost:

@Pulpstar - thank you for a wonderful resource - I think, exit polls, then bed & get up 3.30ish to see constituencies of interest come in.

From previous election coverage, who do PBers think will have the quickest results?

Much as I'd enjoy watching Sturgeon chewing wasps all evening IIRC SKY were quickest off the mark last time?

Scott_xP

7:30 am Rishi Sunak walks to his local polling station with his wife

8:30 am Keir Starmer walks to his local polling station with his wife

11:30 am Ed Davey parachutes into his local polling station...

Mexicanpete

Mirror image BJO, is that you?

BatteryCorrectHorse

I think Labour will get around 40%.

Selebian

If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

TimS

Selebian said:

If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.

wooliedyed

Extremely unlikely but hilarious scenario
Labour 400 seats but lose
Phillipson and Cooper to a Reform red wall surge
Debonnaire to the Greens
Streeting to Leanne Mohammed

IanB2

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

Selebian

CarlottaVance said:

Curse of the new thread - repost:

@Pulpstar - thank you for a wonderful resource - I think, exit polls, then bed & get up 3.30ish to see constituencies of interest come in.

From previous election coverage, who do PBers think will have the quickest results?

Much as I'd enjoy watching Sturgeon chewing wasps all evening IIRC SKY were quickest off the mark last time?

The BBC has a sleep guide: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c047gr9mgxxo

Apparently short naps best for most, although oldies can better get away with a longer snooze and not feel too crap on waking up.

Also notes (abridged, not direct quoting):

"Even one night without sleep alters the brain’s ability to process information and emotions. Classic signs are increased irritability and anxiety, and a loss of empathy. Frustration is also a classic, as well as increased impulsivity.
You might be thrilled with the result and be disinhibited, or less than happy and more reactive to being provoked"

I suggest we all avoid poking CR if things go as expected 🤯

AlsoLei

Just voted in Islington North.

A bit less busy at 11am than at the same time a couple of months ago for the Mayoral election - maybe 6 people inside at the same time as me, with one of them needing to do the paperwork to drop their postal vote in. No ID problems this time, as far as I could see.

A couple of Corbyn campaigners at the gates, handing out stickers - I didn't see anyone refusing (apart from me!) Lots of people in the streets with Corbyn stickers, too.

The only Labour campaigner in evidence was helping an elderly man, I think he'd been giving him a lift.

wooliedyed

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

Christmas after the bombs fell awaits us

Selebian

TimS said:

Selebian said:

If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.

Yeah, "I'll try to slow down things getting shitter and be nicer and more competent about it" is a harder sell, isn't it?

TimS

Weather wise, reasonable for Labour and Lib Dems today I think. Bright and breezy, quite optimistic conditions.

Tomorrow looks dire. I hope Starmer’s aides have stocked up on umbrellas.

Eabhal

The difference with 2010 is the strength of the smaller parties. In 2010, Lab-Con-LD accounted for 88% of the vote. This poll suggests 67%.

If Sunak's campaign had been any good, you'd have seen both the Green and Reform vote squeezed more by the main parties. The same logic applies for why May did so well against Corbyn.

FWIW, my gut tells me that Lab-Con-LD will all do better than what the polls suggest, reverting to the pre-campaign trend, and account for more than 80% of total vote share.

WildernessPt2

Are we allowed to talk about postal vote observations, in the abstract yet? It can't really change anything. If no constituencies are mentioned or candidates?

turbotubbs

TimS said:

Weather wise, reasonable for Labour and Lib Dems today I think. Bright and breezy, quite optimistic conditions.

Tomorrow looks dire. I hope Starmer’s aides have stocked up on umbrellas.

They'd be mad (or recently hired from Conservative Head Office) not to be ready for the rain!

FF43

My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

Selebian

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

It's a bit like the FA cup final. You dislike the Blues, but you also have some bad memories of the Reds, so it's more about the Blues losing than real enthusiasm for the Reds.

boulay

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

wooliedyed

Selebian said:

TimS said:

Selebian said:

If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.

Yeah, "I'll try to slow down things getting shitter and be nicer and more competent about it" is a harder sell, isn't it?

Decade of national renewal is not so much jam tomorrow as jam when your infant school kids take their A levels

williamglenn

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

Nigelb

For film buffs, The Conversation is getting a cinematic re-release:
https://www.theguardian.com/film/article/2024/jul/04/the-conversation-review-gene-hackman-is-unforgettable-in-coppolas-paranoid-classic

Great movie.
Watch out for Harrison Ford, then unknown, in a minor role.

Selebian

wooliedyed said:

Selebian said:

TimS said:

Selebian said:

If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.

Yeah, "I'll try to slow down things getting shitter and be nicer and more competent about it" is a harder sell, isn't it?

Decade of national renewal is not so much jam tomorrow as jam when your infant school kids take their A levels

With a hefty sugar tax applied and a layer of mould grown on top?

148grss

I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

glw

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

The lack of enthusiasm is one thing, but this election also feels less important to me. I don't really mind who wins here, I'm much more worried about what happens in the US.

dixiedean

Just voted in Blyth and Ashington. Very quiet. No sign of any Party people whatsoever.
Will have the shortest wait of any of youse to know the result.

wooliedyed

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

Voter strike in safe seats = some very odd results

TheScreamingEagles

FF43 said:

My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.

Sandpit

TimS said:

Selebian said:

If Sunak had run a better campaign, would Starmer have done so too? Or would he be incapable?

As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.

I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?

Blair was pretty safety first too. There was a different mood in the country though, ironically because the economy was doing much better than it is now. So people could dream of things getting better.

Blair’s first term was rather conservative, with a small ‘c’. It was after 2001 that the spending taps were properly turned on.

Mexicanpete

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

They lose the election.

bigjohnowls

On Topic

Not sure about Cameron but Jezza and May will definitely unless the Polls are underestimating SKS

PedestrianRock

For @Mexicanpete and others who are inexpicably bullish on the Tories

Con seats 250-299 is 400.0 on BF Exchange now

AlsoLei

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

A slightly misleading image, as it was produced at 1937 on Monday, just after a clutch of polls had been released from the least Labour-friendly pollsters all showing a 15 pp lead.

LOESS smoothing is tail-sensitive, so this produced a major effect on the chart you posted.

Since then, there've been 13 other polls published - all but one has had a higher lead (17.7 pp on average).

Beibheirli_C

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

Then it is 1992 all over again!

Deja vu is a wonderful thing...

Malmesbury

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

They lose the election.

The chances of that happening are very, very low.

A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly

Leon

God help us. Look

Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

Leader - Senior Lawyer.
Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
Education - Junior in local government.
Home Secretary - None.
Health - Public Sector consultant.
Energy - None.
Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
Paymaster - None.
Justice - Junior Lawyer.
Business and Trade - None.
DWP - None.
Defence - Journalist.
Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
Culture - Cellist, Author.
Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
Environment - Publisher.
Science - Aid Worker.
Northern Ireland - None.
Scotland - Events and TV Management.
Wales - HR.
Attorney General - Lawyer
International Development - None.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
Campaign Coordinator - None.
Leader of the House of Commons - None.

https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Sean_F

Averaging the last 21 polls (including MRP) gives:

Labour 38.9%
Conservative 21.2%
Reform 16.0%
Lib Dem 11.1%.

The Conservatives are down about 2% on the start of the campaign, Labour down about 5%, the Lib Dems up about 1%, and Reform up about 5%.

IMHO, Reform have taken both from people planning to vote Conservative pre-campaign, and from Con-Lab switchers.

Labour have - in places - gone tactically to the Lib Dems, but also to left wing alternatives, knowing that victory is certain.

BatteryCorrectHorse

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

Hi William Glenn, perhaps we should ask William Glenn but have you seen SKS's own ratings during this time? It is not because Labour has got more unpopular.

Beibheirli_C

boulay said:

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!

Cicero

boulay said:

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

Chalk is locally very popular. With only 11% nationally, I fear that several Lib Dem targets may end up being missed. It is why their targeting needed to be so disciplined.

148grss

TheScreamingEagles said:

FF43 said:

My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.

I think it really depends on what Labour do in government. If they govern as they've campaigned, the honeymoon will be very short indeed. I think some people will give them the benefit of the doubt if the line is "we can't fix 15 years of Tory wrecking overnight", but if some things don't improve quickly I think they're buggered. This is why I hope they don't do a Macron and start banging on about immigration - because it will only make Reform more popular if they do. They can decide to meet people's needs and reduce the blown up grievances people have towards immigrants - it's just will they? It was clear the Tories never would - the only thing they were willing to try was hitting the big "government does harm to outsiders" button. Labour need to use the "government actually helps people" lever.

Malmesbury

148grss said:

I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.

Stocky

@Peter_the_Punter

FPT:

LibDems were 20/1 with Bet365 to win Tewkesbury 24th May, I bet a tenner.

Beibheirli_C

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later

OllyT

Can report dog was actively encouraged to go into the polling station and was made big fuss of by all the polling staff.

We are usually Lib Dems out of choice but both switched to Labour tactically this time.

Think the Tories will hold on here - Chester South and Eddisbury - but having said that there has been no sign of a Tory campaign and we passed 7 Labour canvassers on the way to the polling station.

Mexicanpete

...

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

They lose the election.

The chances of that happening are very, very low.

A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly

I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?

Carnyx

Malmesbury said:

148grss said:

I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.

Hasn't happened in Scotland, if anything a bit of a reduction overall (Scottish Socialists now kaput, were bigger than Alba is now).

Butd that's partly the weird voting system, perhaps.

boulay

Beibheirli_C said:

boulay said:

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!

It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?

https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1808754800550354952

The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.

Mexicanpete

...

Leon said:

God help us. Look

Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

Leader - Senior Lawyer.
Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
Education - Junior in local government.
Home Secretary - None.
Health - Public Sector consultant.
Energy - None.
Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
Paymaster - None.
Justice - Junior Lawyer.
Business and Trade - None.
DWP - None.
Defence - Journalist.
Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
Culture - Cellist, Author.
Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
Environment - Publisher.
Science - Aid Worker.
Northern Ireland - None.
Scotland - Events and TV Management.
Wales - HR.
Attorney General - Lawyer
International Development - None.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
Campaign Coordinator - None.
Leader of the House of Commons - None.

https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Not enough journalists and columnists?

BatteryCorrectHorse

Mexicanpete said:

...

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

They lose the election.

The chances of that happening are very, very low.

A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly

I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?

Nah wasn't the other William Glenn trolling?

Pulpstar

MODERATORS

Can you please not "close" a discussion immediately as I was editing my answer to Farooq's compo and it's gone into the ether.
<<<</<<<<<

FF43

TheScreamingEagles said:

FF43 said:

My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.

The adage applies that no-one wins elections, you only lose them. Elections are zero sum. Labour is doing extraordinarily well only because the Tories are doing extraordinarily badly.

And yet. The other side of the zero sum applies too. Labour are doing well because most people think they are better than the others, by a big margin. I think Starmer can take credit for that.

An anecdote on this. I don't plan to vote Labour myself but reviewing the various leaflets that came though my door, only the Labour one made any sense. They are very serious people. That seriousness comes from Starmer

148grss

Malmesbury said:

148grss said:

I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.

But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.

BatteryCorrectHorse

The moderators these days eat tripe for breakfast.

OllyT

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

Agreed but it will mean Starmer has a level of goodwill, at least initially, that goes well beyond Labour's own vote. I really think 80% of the country just wants rid of the current version of the Conservative Party. Including some like BigG who have even ended up voting for it.

BartholomewRoberts

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FF43 said:

My prediction is the extremely unpopular Keir Starmer - consensus view at the end of the last thread - will win the biggest majority ever.

There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.

He's relatively unpopular for a LOTO to about to take power they key thing is Sunak/The Tories are the most unpopular PM/government in history.

The adage applies that no-one wins elections, you only lose them. Elections are zero sum. Labour is doing extraordinarily well only because the Tories are doing extraordinarily badly.

And yet. The other side of the zero sum applies too. Labour are doing well because most people think they are better than the others, by a big margin. I think Starmer can take credit for that.

Starmer deserves credit for taking on, eventually, the Corbynistas and Hamas apologists that infected the party previously.

Better late than never.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

MODERATORS

Can you please not "close" a discussion immediately as I was editing my answer to Farooq's compo and it's gone into the ether.

Vanilla glitch.

I've stopped it closing old threads 10 mins after a new one is published.

theakes

I keep seeing these ridiculous headlines "Tories battle for seats to keep loss down to 100 etc"
Well I live in a seat with a Conservative 15,000 majority, they appear to have been and still are doing nothing. No leaflets, no canvassing, no posters, and no-one in my circle has received a phone call. They seem dead in the water, becalmed and drifting with the light breeze wherever that may end up.
The seat has been handed to Labour on a plate.

ukelect

I'm inclined to think the Conservative vote today might be a bit higher, and the Reform vote a tiny bit lower, than the final polls suggested.

A result something like this wouldn't surprise me: Labour 425 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 52, SNP 19, Reform UK 5, Plaid Cymru 3, and Green 2

(That's my personal feeling, not the official UK-Elect forecast, which remains unchanged at: Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 204. It's at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240703ForecastUKFinal.html )

Eabhal

Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations

Mexicanpete

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

They lose the election.

The chances of that happening are very, very low.

A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly

I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?

Nah wasn't the other William Glenn trolling?

I can never keep track of which is Euro Federalist William Glenn and which is full fat Trumpster William Glenn.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

They lose the election.

The chances of that happening are very, very low.

A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly

I know William Glenn is trolling. Did we not expect a swingback against Labour anyway, only we also expected the Tories to be the net beneficiaries of that?

Nah wasn't the other William Glenn trolling?

I can never keep track of which is Euro Federalist William Glenn and which is full fat Trumpster William Glenn.

Nah those were the other William Glenns.

Peter_the_Punter

Stocky said:

@Peter_the_Punter

FPT:

LibDems were 20/1 with Bet365 to win Tewkesbury 24th May, I bet a tenner.

That is ace punting, whatever the result.

For the record I think it will be within 2,000 votes either way.

TimS

boulay said:

Beibheirli_C said:

boulay said:

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!

It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.

There will be many more though. BigGs and their wives, Heathener's Surrey Tory.

It's really notable how dark and nervous the mood is over the main opposition parties today, completely at odds with the polling seat predictions. I think there's a sense the electorate are jumpy, they may or may not bother to vote, they may experiment with Reform or the Greens or they may not, they may vote tactically or they may think the election's a done deal and vote with their heart, and they may just decide to give the Tories one last go.

Richard_Tyndall

Kind of an off the wall question so apologies.

Does anyone know if there is a record anywhere (or can be collated easily) of the number of seats that changed hands at each GE. I don't mean just from Losing party to Winning Party but actually overall including between other parties. I am just interested to see what the records are.

Selebian

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later

Revenge, best served cold?
https://www.stjulian.com/store/sweet-revenge

(never tried, I just idly wondered and then googled whether there was a wine called revenge, to be served cold)

Sandpit

Offtopic, but this is an interesting story, that of a Russian soldier who defected to the West. He doesn’t seem too happy about the war, and neither do many of his former colleagues.

https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1808594524760948833

IanB2

WildernessPt2 said:

Are we allowed to talk about postal vote observations, in the abstract yet? It can't really change anything. If no constituencies are mentioned or candidates?

They’re all worthless

IanB2

Selebian said:

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

It's a bit like the FA cup final. You dislike the Blues, but you also have some bad memories of the Reds, so it's more about the Blues losing than real enthusiasm for the Reds.

I was thinking similar. We’re like Scotland fans cheering for Slovakia, in the game where Slovakia actually wins.

Peter_the_Punter

Mexicanpete said:

...

Leon said:

God help us. Look

Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

Leader - Senior Lawyer.
Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
Education - Junior in local government.
Home Secretary - None.
Health - Public Sector consultant.
Energy - None.
Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
Paymaster - None.
Justice - Junior Lawyer.
Business and Trade - None.
DWP - None.
Defence - Journalist.
Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
Culture - Cellist, Author.
Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
Environment - Publisher.
Science - Aid Worker.
Northern Ireland - None.
Scotland - Events and TV Management.
Wales - HR.
Attorney General - Lawyer
International Development - None.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
Campaign Coordinator - None.
Leader of the House of Commons - None.

https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Not enough journalists and columnists?

Not a single bloody flintknapper amongst them. What chance have we got?

Richard_Tyndall

148grss said:

Malmesbury said:

148grss said:

I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?

Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.

But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.

It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.

Beibheirli_C

Selebian said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later

Revenge, best served cold?
https://www.stjulian.com/store/sweet-revenge

(never tried, I just idly wondered and then googled whether there was a wine called revenge, to be served cold)

I like it. I may just make a label to stick over the existing bottle!

algarkirk

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

We have never really been here before. 80% of the voters (probably including a few Tory voters) want the Tories out. SFAICS that is by far the most important driver of today's pattern - the % of voters who will vote so as to get the Tories out; much more important than getting Labour in.

But the effect will, I think, be the same as there are so many seats where only two parties could win, either Lab or Con. The increase in LD seats will be 95-100% at the expense of Tory seats, it won't lose them for Labour.

There will be a few oddities where Tories scrape in by tactical votes not working but the general effect will be a Labour landslide on a lowish vote.

Leon

Mexicanpete said:

...

Leon said:

God help us. Look

Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.

Leader - Senior Lawyer.
Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
Education - Junior in local government.
Home Secretary - None.
Health - Public Sector consultant.
Energy - None.
Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
Paymaster - None.
Justice - Junior Lawyer.
Business and Trade - None.
DWP - None.
Defence - Journalist.
Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
Culture - Cellist, Author.
Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
Environment - Publisher.
Science - Aid Worker.
Northern Ireland - None.
Scotland - Events and TV Management.
Wales - HR.
Attorney General - Lawyer
International Development - None.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
Campaign Coordinator - None.
Leader of the House of Commons - None.

https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Not enough journalists and columnists?

At least an experienced journalist would have wide knowledge of the world, meeting all kinds of people, from businessmen to hoi polloi, from politicians to celebs to murderers

"Events management"

"Public policy lecturer"

"Data privacy lawyer"

As someone on TwiX has quippped, "The B Ark in Hithchiker's Guide to the Galaxy has just unloaded"

I despise these people

MattW

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later

My pheasant is gently warming for later. From freezer to fridge last night when I found it.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Hold on the SNP are on 6% in the newest IPSOS poll?

Beibheirli_C

boulay said:

Beibheirli_C said:

boulay said:

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!

It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.

That's fair!

I thought for a minute that you were being socially irresponsible, but we do need 50 or 60 of them to make it and better the sane ones than the loonies....

algarkirk

Eabhal said:

Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations

They have come out solidly for Reform, and are eating the Greens for lunch.

Sean_F

AlsoLei said:

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

A slightly misleading image, as it was produced at 1937 on Monday, just after a clutch of polls had been released from the least Labour-friendly pollsters all showing a 15 pp lead.

LOESS smoothing is tail-sensitive, so this produced a major effect on the chart you posted.

Since then, there've been 13 other polls published - all but one has had a higher lead (17.7 pp on average).

William has posted the most recent graphic.

Labour average 39%, compared to 44% at the start. But, that's quite sufficient to win big.

viewcode

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Hold on the SNP are on 6% in the newest IPSOS poll?

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-holds-18-point-lead-over-conservatives-final-ipsos-election-poll

Richard_Nabavi

Afternoon all. I'm still around but have been too busy to post here, and haven't had time to do anything much on the betting side either. My only punt is a sell of the Conservatives on the spreads at 115. Fingers crossed on that one.

Yesterday I got a canvassing call from the Tories, in what should be an incredibly safe seat. It's never happened before. I did warn them in 2019....

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

Afternoon all. I'm still around but have been too busy to post here, and haven't had time to do anything much on the betting side either. My only punt is a sell of the Conservatives on the spreads at 115. Fingers crossed on that one.

Yesterday I got a canvassing call from the Tories, in what should be an incredibly safe seat. It's never happened before. I did warn them in 2019....

Afternoon Richard. Really good to hear from you. I was just thinking about you yesterday with regard to those people I have ever had bets with on here. Honours Even so far

Casino_Royale

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

No-ones talking about that because, due to splitting, they're going to win a massive majority anyway, but it's very noticeable all the same.

Gaussian

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Hold on the SNP are on 6% in the newest IPSOS poll?

The John Swinney effect!

Cicero

Beibheirli_C said:

boulay said:

Beibheirli_C said:

boulay said:

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!

It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.

That's fair!

I thought for a minute that you were being socially irresponsible, but we do need 50 or 60 of them to make it and better the sane ones than the loonies....

When you end up with 220 Tories I will remind you of your "socially responsible" voting.

Stocky

My, how things have changed.

See below: In Wycombe Steve Baker was 1/200 to win in 2010. Now he is 7/1.

"A £3,000 bet on Mr Baker stands to gain just £15 – while Labour and Lib Dem supporters have as much chance of winning as the Ivory Coast have of lifting the World Cup."

https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/4999377.long-odds-on-labour-or-lib-dem-election-win-in-wycombe-buckinghamshire/

Richard_Tyndall

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations

They have come out solidly for Reform, and are eating the Greens for lunch.

Vegetarian Bullies?

TOPPING

Looking at my bf book can I make a plea:

Will people *please* not vote for Reform as I am on at all prices below 14%.

I know for some of you this will be hard eg @kinabalu, who I'm sure won't alter his vote especially if it means me losing money over it but I am imploring you all.

tia

CarlottaVance

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later

I’ve probably cursed any chance of a Tory revival by not having a bottle of pink champagne on ice as I did in 1992….

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

Afternoon all. I'm still around but have been too busy to post here, and haven't had time to do anything much on the betting side either. My only punt is a sell of the Conservatives on the spreads at 115. Fingers crossed on that one.

Yesterday I got a canvassing call from the Tories, in what should be an incredibly safe seat. It's never happened before. I did warn them in 2019....

Too busy looking through the Farr's sale, I'll warrant.

Beibheirli_C

CarlottaVance said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

There's surely never been an election where the result is both so eagerly awaited and yet unenthusiastically greeted?

Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.

My wine bottle is gently cooling for either celebration or commiseration later

I’ve probably cursed any chance of a Tory revival by not having a bottle of pink champagne on ice as I did in 1992….

Stylish! I like it

Stocky

Peter_the_Punter said:

Stocky said:

@Peter_the_Punter

FPT:

LibDems were 20/1 with Bet365 to win Tewkesbury 24th May, I bet a tenner.

That is ace punting, whatever the result.

For the record I think it will be within 2,000 votes either way.

I've got 30 constituency bets and overall they are looking very good indeed - but this good work will negated bigly if just one bet goes the wrong way (Corbyn wins Islington North).

BatteryCorrectHorse

The polling for the leaders is either wrong or the polls are showing tactical voting. Whilst SKS's ratings go up - and in many places have reached net positive or all time highs - Labour's polling has dropped.

Leon

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

Labour's polling drop during the campaign is almost as steep as the Tories' after Liz Truss's budget.

What if their vote just fails to turn up?

No-ones talking about that because, due to splitting, they're going to win a massive majority anyway, but it's very noticeable all the same.

Another week or two and REF would be well ahead of CON

Carnyx

Richard_Tyndall said:

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

Keeping an eye on #XLBulliesatpollingstations

They have come out solidly for Reform, and are eating the Greens for lunch.

Vegetarian Bullies?

More like constipated. Standard canine remedy.

Mexicanpete

...

TimS said:

boulay said:

Beibheirli_C said:

boulay said:

I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.

Tory majority nailed on now clearly.

You persuaded them to vote Tory? You will be awarded the Casino Gold Medal of Endeavour!

It was definitely a vote for him not the party tbh. He’s the sort of Tory we need lots of in the rump that remains if it’s to revive its fortunes.

There will be many more though. BigGs and their wives, Heathener's Surrey Tory.

It's really notable how dark and nervous the mood is over the main opposition parties today, completely at odds with the polling seat predictions. I think there's a sense the electorate are jumpy, they may or may not bother to vote, they may experiment with Reform or the Greens or they may not, they may vote tactically or they may think the election's a done deal and vote with their heart, and they may just decide to give the Tories one last go.

The Tories are bullish because they seldom lose, and the rest of us nervous because we are often in the category of close but no cigar.

You may be right, but why would the electorate make a conscious decision to give the "Tories one last go" unless they bought the tax bombshell, the supermajority fear and Labour having been the government for the last 14 years and they must be removed.

johnt

Looking through the declaration times, and for anyone who does not trust the exit poll, I don't think there will be long to wait and we will get a pretty clear idea of how bad (or good) a night it is for the Tories shortly after midnight when Basildon is due to declare. Currently EC has it going to Labour (comfortably) despite the fact that it had a large Tory majority. If it does go easily then I don't see the Tories getting 100 seats or more. After that I am trying to work out what will be the first key seat for the Tory/Lib Dem battleground in the south to declare. Maybe Torbay at 2 am? That battleground was critical to Cameron in 2015 and if it unwinds to any great extent it could cap a very bad night for them.

ManchesterKurt

Isn't a strong reason for Labour vote being down so much but the seat total being so high due to people deciding through the campaign as to what's the best way to vote tactically in to get rid of the Tories under FPTP.

Under a different system I've no doubt the patterns would be very different.