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Will David Cameron have a better vote share than Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

Things that might cause 'surprises' relative to polling. 11% refused is quite alot and if that has become politicsed (for example via Farage's attacks on pollsters) then they may not be random missing data. https://t.co/jRpufChj4t
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@Pulpstar - thank you for a wonderful resource - I think, exit polls, then bed & get up 3.30ish to see constituencies of interest come in.
From previous election coverage, who do PBers think will have the quickest results?
Much as I'd enjoy watching Sturgeon chewing wasps all evening IIRC SKY were quickest off the mark last time?
8:30 am Keir Starmer walks to his local polling station with his wife
11:30 am Ed Davey parachutes into his local polling station...
As it is, the big leads have meant that ming vase is the thing. Say nothing to offend. If the Cons had been catching up substantially then Starmer would have needed to do something a bit more positive, if he was able, even at the risk of alienating some voters.
I'm a bit young to really remember 1997 - I watched the election night coverage with great interest, but I didn't really have that much of a sense of the build up and saw it through a pro-Tory lens anyway. Was Blair much more positive or was he all safety-first, too?
Labour 400 seats but lose
Phillipson and Cooper to a Reform red wall surge
Debonnaire to the Greens
Streeting to Leanne Mohammed
Everyone bar the blue team is rooting for the red team yet many of us won't vote for them.
Apparently short naps best for most, although oldies can better get away with a longer snooze and not feel too crap on waking up.
Also notes (abridged, not direct quoting):
"Even one night without sleep alters the brain’s ability to process information and emotions. Classic signs are increased irritability and anxiety, and a loss of empathy. Frustration is also a classic, as well as increased impulsivity.
You might be thrilled with the result and be disinhibited, or less than happy and more reactive to being provoked"
I suggest we all avoid poking CR if things go as expected
A bit less busy at 11am than at the same time a couple of months ago for the Mayoral election - maybe 6 people inside at the same time as me, with one of them needing to do the paperwork to drop their postal vote in. No ID problems this time, as far as I could see.
A couple of Corbyn campaigners at the gates, handing out stickers - I didn't see anyone refusing (apart from me!) Lots of people in the streets with Corbyn stickers, too.
The only Labour campaigner in evidence was helping an elderly man, I think he'd been giving him a lift.
Tomorrow looks dire. I hope Starmer’s aides have stocked up on umbrellas.
If Sunak's campaign had been any good, you'd have seen both the Green and Reform vote squeezed more by the main parties. The same logic applies for why May did so well against Corbyn.
FWIW, my gut tells me that Lab-Con-LD will all do better than what the polls suggest, reverting to the pre-campaign trend, and account for more than 80% of total vote share.
There are various explanations feeding into that prediction.
Tory majority nailed on now clearly.
What if their vote just fails to turn up?
https://www.theguardian.com/film/article/2024/jul/04/the-conversation-review-gene-hackman-is-unforgettable-in-coppolas-paranoid-classic
Great movie.
Watch out for Harrison Ford, then unknown, in a minor role.
Will have the shortest wait of any of youse to know the result.
Not sure about Cameron but Jezza and May will definitely unless the Polls are underestimating SKS
Con seats 250-299 is 400.0 on BF Exchange now
LOESS smoothing is tail-sensitive, so this produced a major effect on the chart you posted.
Since then, there've been 13 other polls published - all but one has had a higher lead (17.7 pp on average).
Deja vu is a wonderful thing...
A double digit lead plus the main opposition party vote split between two parties = winning biggly
Non-political Work History of the Labour Front Bench and future UK cabinet.
Leader - Senior Lawyer.
Deputy Leader - Care worker and union rep.
Exchequer - Junior banking analyst.
Education - Junior in local government.
Home Secretary - None.
Health - Public Sector consultant.
Energy - None.
Foreign Office - Minor US Attorney.
Dutchy of Lancaster - None.
Minister without portfolio - Junior Lawyer
Paymaster - None.
Justice - Junior Lawyer.
Business and Trade - None.
DWP - None.
Defence - Journalist.
Transport - Volunteer Special Constable.
Culture - Cellist, Author.
Party Chair - Public Policy lecturer.
Environment - Publisher.
Science - Aid Worker.
Northern Ireland - None.
Scotland - Events and TV Management.
Wales - HR.
Attorney General - Lawyer
International Development - None.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Data Privacy Lawyer.
Campaign Coordinator - None.
Leader of the House of Commons - None.
https://x.com/mavenpolitic/status/1808458546217963703?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Labour 38.9%
Conservative 21.2%
Reform 16.0%
Lib Dem 11.1%.
The Conservatives are down about 2% on the start of the campaign, Labour down about 5%, the Lib Dems up about 1%, and Reform up about 5%.
IMHO, Reform have taken both from people planning to vote Conservative pre-campaign, and from Con-Lab switchers.
Labour have - in places - gone tactically to the Lib Dems, but also to left wing alternatives, knowing that victory is certain.
FPT:
LibDems were 20/1 with Bet365 to win Tewkesbury 24th May, I bet a tenner.
We are usually Lib Dems out of choice but both switched to Labour tactically this time.
Think the Tories will hold on here - Chester South and Eddisbury - but having said that there has been no sign of a Tory campaign and we passed 7 Labour canvassers on the way to the polling station.
Butd that's partly the weird voting system, perhaps.
https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1808754800550354952
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
Can you please not "close" a discussion immediately as I was editing my answer to Farooq's compo and it's gone into the ether.
<<<</<<<<<
And yet. The other side of the zero sum applies too. Labour are doing well because most people think they are better than the others, by a big margin. I think Starmer can take credit for that.
An anecdote on this. I don't plan to vote Labour myself but reviewing the various leaflets that came though my door, only the Labour one made any sense. They are very serious people. That seriousness comes from Starmer
Better late than never.
I've stopped it closing old threads 10 mins after a new one is published.
Well I live in a seat with a Conservative 15,000 majority, they appear to have been and still are doing nothing. No leaflets, no canvassing, no posters, and no-one in my circle has received a phone call. They seem dead in the water, becalmed and drifting with the light breeze wherever that may end up.
The seat has been handed to Labour on a plate.
A result something like this wouldn't surprise me: Labour 425 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 52, SNP 19, Reform UK 5, Plaid Cymru 3, and Green 2
(That's my personal feeling, not the official UK-Elect forecast, which remains unchanged at: Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 204. It's at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240703ForecastUKFinal.html )
For the record I think it will be within 2,000 votes either way.
It's really notable how dark and nervous the mood is over the main opposition parties today, completely at odds with the polling seat predictions. I think there's a sense the electorate are jumpy, they may or may not bother to vote, they may experiment with Reform or the Greens or they may not, they may vote tactically or they may think the election's a done deal and vote with their heart, and they may just decide to give the Tories one last go.
Does anyone know if there is a record anywhere (or can be collated easily) of the number of seats that changed hands at each GE. I don't mean just from Losing party to Winning Party but actually overall including between other parties. I am just interested to see what the records are.
https://www.stjulian.com/store/sweet-revenge
(never tried, I just idly wondered and then googled whether there was a wine called revenge, to be served cold)
https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1808594524760948833
But the effect will, I think, be the same as there are so many seats where only two parties could win, either Lab or Con. The increase in LD seats will be 95-100% at the expense of Tory seats, it won't lose them for Labour.
There will be a few oddities where Tories scrape in by tactical votes not working but the general effect will be a Labour landslide on a lowish vote.
"Events management"
"Public policy lecturer"
"Data privacy lawyer"
As someone on TwiX has quippped, "The B Ark in Hithchiker's Guide to the Galaxy has just unloaded"
I despise these people
I thought for a minute that you were being socially irresponsible, but we do need 50 or 60 of them to make it and better the sane ones than the loonies....
Labour average 39%, compared to 44% at the start. But, that's quite sufficient to win big.
Yesterday I got a canvassing call from the Tories, in what should be an incredibly safe seat. It's never happened before. I did warn them in 2019....
See below: In Wycombe Steve Baker was 1/200 to win in 2010. Now he is 7/1.
"A £3,000 bet on Mr Baker stands to gain just £15 – while Labour and Lib Dem supporters have as much chance of winning as the Ivory Coast have of lifting the World Cup."
https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/4999377.long-odds-on-labour-or-lib-dem-election-win-in-wycombe-buckinghamshire/
Will people *please* not vote for Reform as I am on at all prices below 14%.
I know for some of you this will be hard eg @kinabalu, who I'm sure won't alter his vote especially if it means me losing money over it but I am imploring you all.
tia
You may be right, but why would the electorate make a conscious decision to give the "Tories one last go" unless they bought the tax bombshell, the supermajority fear and Labour having been the government for the last 14 years and they must be removed.
Under a different system I've no doubt the patterns would be very different.