1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.
Tory majority nailed on now clearly.
I assumed your Sunak-bothering was a predilection you only exposed in the safe anonymity of PB.
I know a few people working polling stations in Leeds - ticking over but not particularly brisk so far they're saying on whatsapp.
I voted at dinner time - Labour, Yvette Cooper - polling station was quiet. Another bloke came in while I was there, passed another two on their way in as I Ieft.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
On the other hand Labour have only won majority governments with three (and soon to be four) leaders since the party was founded in 1900
Atlee Wilson Blair Starmar?
It's all swings and roundabouts...
No, times have changed, and so have people. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I don't see where the modern Conservative Party gets another convincing win like 2019 out of the electorate that we now have. The Brexit impasse isn't going to need solving again.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Why choose 1992 as your baseline. What about 1979. Or earlier.
I suppose I could go back to the time of Disraeli, Lord Liverpool, or perhaps the Marquess of Rockingham, but what would be the point? I think that nine elections is quite enough to demonstrate that the contemporary Conservative Party, as distinct from iterations that are now so far in the past that many First World War veterans were still alive at the time, struggles to win Parliamentary majorities. It's why so many Tories still seem so fixated on Maggie. She was their last reliable winner and there's no sign of a return to form in sight.
It's just an arbitrary anecdote to prove your point. If you are going to give time series then do it with some degree of rigour.
I'm trying to think of something that might cause a fit of conniption early in the drama tonight . 'Labour have requested a recount in Rushcliffe' or something like that We need that moment of existential dread early doors
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
I have just had the very surprising news that I have had my first ever involvement in a UK election by just being messaged by three family members living in Cheltenham that they switched from Lib Dem to Tory on the basis of voting for Alex Chalk (rather than the Tories as such) on my pleading and they are just back from the polling booth.
Tory majority nailed on now clearly.
I assumed your Sunak-bothering was a predilection you only exposed in the safe anonymity of PB.
Haha, my family know my weird tastes so it’s the one place in real life I can talk freely about my centrist Tory perversion.
I'm trying to think of something that might cause a fit of conniption early in the drama tonight . 'Labour have requested a recount in Rushcliffe' or something like that We need that moment of existential dread early doors
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
On the other hand Labour have only won majority governments with three (and soon to be four) leaders since the party was founded in 1900
Atlee Wilson Blair Starmar?
It's all swings and roundabouts...
No, times have changed, and so have people. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I don't see where the modern Conservative Party gets another convincing win like 2019 out of the electorate that we now have. The Brexit impasse isn't going to need solving again.
Conservatives or another party of the right, will get back in when Labour eventually run out of other peoples money.
I always thought the point of an analogy was that the reader (listener, viewer) can immediately see the read across to the real life situation and ideally gain extra insight into it by being prompted to view things in a new, imaginative way?
Can report dog was actively encouraged to go into the polling station and was made big fuss of by all the polling staff.
We are usually Lib Dems out of choice but both switched to Labour tactically this time.
Think the Tories will hold on here - Chester South and Eddisbury - but having said that there has been no sign of a Tory campaign and we passed 7 Labour canvassers on the way to the polling station.
Was the dog able to vote or was he refused for not having the correct ID?
If voters were microchipped like dogs then it would solve the problem of leaving your ID at home.
Not in the Labour manifesto, but not explicitly ruled out.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Yes I feel like a lot of people don’t get this.
Take the 2019 result. Tories 365 Labour 202.
Now assume that some people just lent the Tories their vote to get Brexit done.
Now assume that some people only voted Tory in the end because they were scared of Corbyn.
Now assume that some people only voted Tory because the Brexit/Reform Party weren’t standing in their seat, which they are now.
Now assume that some moderate Tories would have voted Lib Dem last time, but they couldn’t do it because of their Brexit stance - but now they can.
Straight away - before anything has happened, before you even consider the impact of anything that Boris, Truss, Sunak or Starmer have done in the last 5 years - the overall landscape looks much less favourable for the Tories than in 2019, and better for Labour.
Too many people make the mistake of automatically using the 2019 result as a yardstick - when as you say, it was the result of a lot of unique circumstances at the time
Point of order: every election is a set of unique circumstances which lead party coalitions to build or break. Now 2019 may have been a more unstable Tory voting coalition than at other times. But then so might the 2024 Labour coalition. We simply don’t know how events will pan out.
Even if the next election reverts to being a more ‘traditional’ sort of result, having to work from the base of today’s results is going to make the forecasting and analysis a lot more difficult.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
On the other hand Labour have only won majority governments with three (and soon to be four) leaders since the party was founded in 1900
Atlee Wilson Blair Starmar?
It's all swings and roundabouts...
No, times have changed, and so have people. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I don't see where the modern Conservative Party gets another convincing win like 2019 out of the electorate that we now have. The Brexit impasse isn't going to need solving again.
Conservatives or another party of the right, will get back in when Labour eventually run out of other peoples money.
As Labour governments always do...
Pre-Truss, I'd agree.
Post-Truss, I don't think so.
The brand is fucked. They now need to explain exactly how they're going to slash the state in order to win back power.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Why choose 1992 as your baseline. What about 1979. Or earlier.
I suppose I could go back to the time of Disraeli, Lord Liverpool, or perhaps the Marquess of Rockingham, but what would be the point? I think that nine elections is quite enough to demonstrate that the contemporary Conservative Party, as distinct from iterations that are now so far in the past that many First World War veterans were still alive at the time, struggles to win Parliamentary majorities. It's why so many Tories still seem so fixated on Maggie. She was their last reliable winner and there's no sign of a return to form in sight.
It's just an arbitrary anecdote to prove your point. If you are going to give time series then do it with some degree of rigour.
We shall agree to disagree then. Looking at everything that has happened since the end of the Thatcher Ministry is a perfectly reasonable timeframe. I'm not writing an essay on British electoral history since Sir Robert Walpole to satisfy pedantry.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
On the other hand Labour have only won majority governments with three (and soon to be four) leaders since the party was founded in 1900
Atlee Wilson Blair Starmar?
It's all swings and roundabouts...
No, times have changed, and so have people. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I don't see where the modern Conservative Party gets another convincing win like 2019 out of the electorate that we now have. The Brexit impasse isn't going to need solving again.
It is just impossible to say things like this. Parties adapt to changing times. The Tory Party of 2019 was very different from the Tory Party of 1987 or 1992, or the Tory Party of today even. The Labour Party of 2017 is incredibly different to the Labour Party of 2024.
Now could the Tory brand be so tainted that the party finds it difficult to recover? Certainly possible. But that’s a different equation.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
On the other hand Labour have only won majority governments with three (and soon to be four) leaders since the party was founded in 1900
Atlee Wilson Blair Starmar?
It's all swings and roundabouts...
No, times have changed, and so have people. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I don't see where the modern Conservative Party gets another convincing win like 2019 out of the electorate that we now have. The Brexit impasse isn't going to need solving again.
Conservatives or another party of the right, will get back in when Labour eventually run out of other peoples money.
As Labour governments always do...
Sunak ran out of other people's children and grandchildrens money too
Just heard from a friend who's been exit polled in the Hornsey constituency.
They seemed to be using a time-based sampling method, selecting one person every n minutes. Apparently it didn't feel very 'proper' (no booth, and the box was covered in TV company logos), but she's still pretty excited to have played a part in producing the 10pm announcement.
@Dumbosaurus Sorry, just seen your post. We got back from A break in Amsterdam this morning.
No I have not had the Truth about Luke Akehurst leaflet. There is a deranged stop Luke Akehurst twitter feed. Guess it must be them. Every post of his on social media attracts some bizarre replies.
They won’t be happy with me or my wife. We both voted labour. The Tories have been so poor although I have little expectation of labour I expect Starmer to be more competent.
See William Hill offering50-1 Lib Dems 30 or under. I think that is a good bet.
A very good value loser that one.
Bet365 have Cheltenham at 1-9 for the Lib Dems. All the models (And quite frankly a bit of common sense) show that is almost certainly yellow - and in the first 30 seats for them so you can cover your stake that way.
Seat 14, 18, 11, 3, 11, 15, 5, 12, 6.
1-9 is too long regardless of 50-1 < 30 seats. On a bad night for the Lib Dems they probably still take Cheltenham, so you could win both bets
Edit : Added a tab to show the top 30 LD seats by model if anyone fancies a riskier hedge !
It's on GE 2024 Full, Sheet 3
I can't see how they get more than 30 seats without Cheltenham, you never know I suppose
Of course there's no Ref candidate in Cheltenham, so the Tories might do slightly better than if there was one.
2 activists outside the polling station in Evington Rd opposite the Masjid, with posters for Shockat Adam (pro gaza independent) speaking to voters. I didn't think this allowed, though they didn't seem to be intimidating.
2 colleagues asking me what they should vote. Both in a marginal, so I think I tipped them the right TV.
On topic I voted about 7.15 this morning. Voting was …not brisk. During the time I was in I was the only voter. From what I could see on the sheet they had issued something like 8 voting strips that morning.
It was early but this is a commuter village and I have never seen the polling booths that quiet.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
On the other hand Labour have only won majority governments with three (and soon to be four) leaders since the party was founded in 1900
Atlee Wilson Blair Starmar?
It's all swings and roundabouts...
No, times have changed, and so have people. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I don't see where the modern Conservative Party gets another convincing win like 2019 out of the electorate that we now have. The Brexit impasse isn't going to need solving again.
It is just impossible to say things like this. Parties adapt to changing times. The Tory Party of 2019 was very different from the Tory Party of 1987 or 1992, or the Tory Party of today even. The Labour Party of 2017 is incredibly different to the Labour Party of 2024.
Now could the Tory brand be so tainted that the party finds it difficult to recover? Certainly possible. But that’s a different equation.
All political parties rise and fall. It would be weird to expect the Tory party to be different. It had a very good run in terms of its significance, but I think it is done. I think it has been so damaged as a brand that even people who agree with it want a different party - hence the rapid growth of Reform.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Your photo ID doesn’t have to be valid - old passports or licenses are allowed, provided the photo still looks like you
I'm trying to think of something that might cause a fit of conniption early in the drama tonight . 'Labour have requested a recount in Rushcliffe' or something like that We need that moment of existential dread early doors
Tory hold of 15,000 in Broxbourne will get Labour HQ shitting themselves.
I think wooliedyed was looking for something that might actually come to pass...
On topic I voted about 7.15 this morning. Voting was …not brisk. During the time I was in I was the only voter. From what I could see on the sheet they had issued something like 8 voting strips that morning.
It was early but this is a commuter village and I have never seen the polling booths that quiet.
I voted at 8.30 ish and it was about typical turnover. Peak voting for those on the way to work!
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
On the other hand Labour have only won majority governments with three (and soon to be four) leaders since the party was founded in 1900
Atlee Wilson Blair Starmar?
It's all swings and roundabouts...
No, times have changed, and so have people. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I don't see where the modern Conservative Party gets another convincing win like 2019 out of the electorate that we now have. The Brexit impasse isn't going to need solving again.
It is just impossible to say things like this. Parties adapt to changing times. The Tory Party of 2019 was very different from the Tory Party of 1987 or 1992, or the Tory Party of today even. The Labour Party of 2017 is incredibly different to the Labour Party of 2024.
Now could the Tory brand be so tainted that the party finds it difficult to recover? Certainly possible. But that’s a different equation.
All political parties rise and fall. It would be weird to expect the Tory party to be different. It had a very good run in terms of its significance, but I think it is done. I think it has been so damaged as a brand that even people who agree with it want a different party - hence the rapid growth of Reform.
I think it is entirely possible. Even if the party survives I think it could be as a result of a merger/rebrand. But we shall see.
Just heard from a friend who's been exit polled in the Hornsey constituency.
They seemed to be using a time-based sampling method, selecting one person every n minutes. Apparently it didn't feel very 'proper' (no booth, and the box was covered in TV company logos), but she's still pretty excited to have played a part in producing the 10pm announcement.
I trust she did her bit to make our election night viewing more interesting?
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
The NI rules were bought in as part of a massive overhaul of voting there.
Several hundred thousand voters were disenfranchised. Deliberately. Some said it was unfair to penalise voters for being dead or non-existent.....
Voted this morning in East Surrey with my four year old (He was most interested in getting back outside on his scooter than my garbled nursery school-related analogy of what voting was).
It was pretty quiet, and I went for a Lib Dem TV. Had a chat with the local Lib Dem councillor outside who didn't sound too positive about his lot getting too near Coutinho, but you never know
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Why choose 1992 as your baseline. What about 1979. Or earlier.
I suppose I could go back to the time of Disraeli, Lord Liverpool, or perhaps the Marquess of Rockingham, but what would be the point? I think that nine elections is quite enough to demonstrate that the contemporary Conservative Party, as distinct from iterations that are now so far in the past that many First World War veterans were still alive at the time, struggles to win Parliamentary majorities. It's why so many Tories still seem so fixated on Maggie. She was their last reliable winner and there's no sign of a return to form in sight.
In fairness Cameron in 2010 had an absolute mountain to climb following 1997 and made a net gain of 97 seats, still short of a majority but a fine effort given how far back the Tories started and how relatively popular Brown and Labour still were (versus the Tories in 97 or now).
He then got all the way over the line in 2015. So it could be said Cameron was a reliable vote winner at elections before, of course, he blew the Tories up with the referendum.
And then Boris, who won the London Mayoral twice and who gained the Tories a net gain of 48 seats in 2019 and a big majority.
Cameron started from the position left in 2005. 2010 was the end of 13 years of Labour that had featured unpopular wars and culminated in a financial crisis. He still couldn't muster a majority, and only just managed it five years later, even after destroying the Liberal Democrats.
The point being, as per the original post, that 2019 was a true outlier. The Conservatives struggle to win. There aren't enough votes anymore in either social conservatism or a small state and, whilst low taxes are usually popular, when they try to square those with the desire of much of their support base for ever higher spending on health and pensions, they discover they can't.
I can see the end of the street leading to the polling station from chateau Woolie. Relatively steady flow of voters since the working day began but no tsunami
2 activists outside the polling station in Evington Rd opposite the Masjid, with posters for Shockat Adam (pro gaza independent) speaking to voters. I didn't think this allowed, though they didn't seem to be intimidating.
2 colleagues asking me what they should vote. Both in a marginal, so I think I tipped them the right TV.
You can’t canvass voters inside the polling station precinct. Outside in the street isn’t illegal, but if they were taking the **** by being too close to it, or pestering people as they approached, they’d probably get warned off on the basis that they were impeding the poll.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
1992 - was very much a working majority. 336 and with being able to reasonably rely on the UUP. 2015 - same position. 331, but with Sinn Fein not turning up, and the DUP likely supporting.
Whilst the failures of FPTP are well known, a better measure might be (at least to assess popularity) vote share:
41.9%, 30.7%, 31.7%, 32.4%, 36.1%, 36.9%, 42.3% and 43.6%
I haven't done it, but it would be interesting to put this up against Labour. Their results, both seats and percentages have hardly been spectacular either (and indeed, have broadly been worse).
On topic I voted about 7.15 this morning. Voting was …not brisk. During the time I was in I was the only voter. From what I could see on the sheet they had issued something like 8 voting strips that morning.
It was early but this is a commuter village and I have never seen the polling booths that quiet.
That's interesting. Turnout was very brisk in St John's, Woking this morning. Lib Dem gain here, I reckon.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Why choose 1992 as your baseline. What about 1979. Or earlier.
I suppose I could go back to the time of Disraeli, Lord Liverpool, or perhaps the Marquess of Rockingham, but what would be the point? I think that nine elections is quite enough to demonstrate that the contemporary Conservative Party, as distinct from iterations that are now so far in the past that many First World War veterans were still alive at the time, struggles to win Parliamentary majorities. It's why so many Tories still seem so fixated on Maggie. She was their last reliable winner and there's no sign of a return to form in sight.
It's just an arbitrary anecdote to prove your point. If you are going to give time series then do it with some degree of rigour.
I don't think it's arbitrary - there was a clear ideological shift post Thatcher from both main parties, and indeed with the fall of the Berlin Wall and end of the USSR. We live in the era of "The End of History", after all. Maybe an argument could be made for starting with the advent of the internet age - so maybe '97 onwards, but I think it is not unreasonable to suggest the "modern era" of UK politics ended started with Major's premiership.
I went to vote and followed through on my intention to vote labour. It is lunchtime in quite a busy area and it was pretty quiet, 2 or 3 other voters in the room. The polling clerks were wearing rainbow lanyards. I guess that may have got Reform UK/Conservatives a few more votes.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
1992 - was very much a working majority. 336 and with being able to reasonably rely on the UUP. 2015 - same position. 331, but with Sinn Fein not turning up, and the DUP likely supporting.
Whilst the failures of FPTP are well known, a better measure might be (at least to assess popularity) vote share:
41.9%, 30.7%, 31.7%, 32.4%, 36.1%, 36.9%, 42.3% and 43.6%
I haven't done it, but it would be interesting to put this up against Labour. Their results, both seats and percentages have hardly been spectacular either (and indeed, have broadly been worse).
2015 was clearly not a working majority - it didn't really pass much in terms of legislation and was known for its parliamentary gridlock and the fact that Tory backbenchers thwarted much of May's legislative agenda.
See William Hill offering50-1 Lib Dems 30 or under. I think that is a good bet.
A very good value loser that one.
Bet365 have Cheltenham at 1-9 for the Lib Dems. All the models (And quite frankly a bit of common sense) show that is almost certainly yellow - and in the first 30 seats for them so you can cover your stake that way.
Seat 14, 18, 11, 3, 11, 15, 5, 12, 6.
1-9 is too long regardless of 50-1 < 30 seats. On a bad night for the Lib Dems they probably still take Cheltenham, so you could win both bets
Edit : Added a tab to show the top 30 LD seats by model if anyone fancies a riskier hedge !
It's on GE 2024 Full, Sheet 3
I can't see how they get more than 30 seats without Cheltenham, you never know I suppose
Of course there's no Ref candidate in Cheltenham, so the Tories might do slightly better than if there was one.
Does anyone know how many Tory MPs with a majority of under 1,000 clung on in 1997? I strongly suspect they can be counted on the fingers of no hands.
Seb Coe was possibly the MP who did best against the tide in that election - and even he saw his 3,000 majority turn to a 3,000 deficit. Doing better than average just won't cut it in this election in a seat like Cheltenham.
And, only two months ago the Lib Dems wiped out the last Tory councillors in the Borough, so it's not like there is a sign of surprising Tory resilience or Lib Dem weakness in the seat.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Why choose 1992 as your baseline. What about 1979. Or earlier.
I suppose I could go back to the time of Disraeli, Lord Liverpool, or perhaps the Marquess of Rockingham, but what would be the point? I think that nine elections is quite enough to demonstrate that the contemporary Conservative Party, as distinct from iterations that are now so far in the past that many First World War veterans were still alive at the time, struggles to win Parliamentary majorities. It's why so many Tories still seem so fixated on Maggie. She was their last reliable winner and there's no sign of a return to form in sight.
It's just an arbitrary anecdote to prove your point. If you are going to give time series then do it with some degree of rigour.
I don't think it's arbitrary - there was a clear ideological shift post Thatcher from both main parties, and indeed with the fall of the Berlin Wall and end of the USSR. We live in the era of "The End of History", after all. Maybe an argument could be made for starting with the advent of the internet age - so maybe '97 onwards, but I think it is not unreasonable to suggest the "modern era" of UK politics ended started with Major's premiership.
1979: majority 1984: majority 1987: majority 1992: majority 1997: defeat 2001: defeat 2005: defeat 2010: minority but formed stable government (best in recent times) 2015: majority 2017: minority 2019: majority 2024: TBD
I'm trying to think of something that might cause a fit of conniption early in the drama tonight . 'Labour have requested a recount in Rushcliffe' or something like that We need that moment of existential dread early doors
"We're hearing it's close in Holborn and St Pancras"
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Why choose 1992 as your baseline. What about 1979. Or earlier.
I suppose I could go back to the time of Disraeli, Lord Liverpool, or perhaps the Marquess of Rockingham, but what would be the point? I think that nine elections is quite enough to demonstrate that the contemporary Conservative Party, as distinct from iterations that are now so far in the past that many First World War veterans were still alive at the time, struggles to win Parliamentary majorities. It's why so many Tories still seem so fixated on Maggie. She was their last reliable winner and there's no sign of a return to form in sight.
It's just an arbitrary anecdote to prove your point. If you are going to give time series then do it with some degree of rigour.
I don't think it's arbitrary - there was a clear ideological shift post Thatcher from both main parties, and indeed with the fall of the Berlin Wall and end of the USSR. We live in the era of "The End of History", after all. Maybe an argument could be made for starting with the advent of the internet age - so maybe '97 onwards, but I think it is not unreasonable to suggest the "modern era" of UK politics ended started with Major's premiership.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
The NI rules were bought in as part of a massive overhaul of voting there.
Several hundred thousand voters were disenfranchised. Deliberately. Some said it was unfair to penalise voters for being dead or non-existent.....
On topic I voted about 7.15 this morning. Voting was …not brisk. During the time I was in I was the only voter. From what I could see on the sheet they had issued something like 8 voting strips that morning.
It was early but this is a commuter village and I have never seen the polling booths that quiet.
That's interesting. Turnout was very brisk in St John's, Woking this morning. Lib Dem gain here, I reckon.
I'm trying to think of something that might cause a fit of conniption early in the drama tonight . 'Labour have requested a recount in Rushcliffe' or something like that We need that moment of existential dread early doors
"We're hearing it's close in Holborn and St Pancras"
Andrew Feinstein's team say they think he has won it
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
Why choose 1992 as your baseline. What about 1979. Or earlier.
I suppose I could go back to the time of Disraeli, Lord Liverpool, or perhaps the Marquess of Rockingham, but what would be the point? I think that nine elections is quite enough to demonstrate that the contemporary Conservative Party, as distinct from iterations that are now so far in the past that many First World War veterans were still alive at the time, struggles to win Parliamentary majorities. It's why so many Tories still seem so fixated on Maggie. She was their last reliable winner and there's no sign of a return to form in sight.
It's just an arbitrary anecdote to prove your point. If you are going to give time series then do it with some degree of rigour.
I don't think it's arbitrary - there was a clear ideological shift post Thatcher from both main parties, and indeed with the fall of the Berlin Wall and end of the USSR. We live in the era of "The End of History", after all. Maybe an argument could be made for starting with the advent of the internet age - so maybe '97 onwards, but I think it is not unreasonable to suggest the "modern era" of UK politics ended started with Major's premiership.
1979: majority 1984: majority 1987: majority 1992: majority 1997: defeat 2001: defeat 2005: defeat 2010: minority but formed stable government (best in recent times) 2015: majority 2017: minority 2019: majority 2024: TBD
Is a fairer representation
Agreed. I think there is little evidence that their current woes represent terminal decline for the Tories.
It is possible that they are dying, but more likely they will reinvent themselves as they have done many times before.
What they reinvent themselves as is the more interesting question, in my opinion.
See William Hill offering50-1 Lib Dems 30 or under. I think that is a good bet.
A very good value loser that one.
Bet365 have Cheltenham at 1-9 for the Lib Dems. All the models (And quite frankly a bit of common sense) show that is almost certainly yellow - and in the first 30 seats for them so you can cover your stake that way.
Seat 14, 18, 11, 3, 11, 15, 5, 12, 6.
1-9 is too long regardless of 50-1 < 30 seats. On a bad night for the Lib Dems they probably still take Cheltenham, so you could win both bets
Edit : Added a tab to show the top 30 LD seats by model if anyone fancies a riskier hedge !
It's on GE 2024 Full, Sheet 3
I can't see how they get more than 30 seats without Cheltenham, you never know I suppose
Of course there's no Ref candidate in Cheltenham, so the Tories might do slightly better than if there was one.
Does anyone know how many Tory MPs with a majority of under 1,000 clung on in 1997? I strongly suspect they can be counted on the fingers of no hands.
Seb Coe was possibly the MP who did best against the tide in that election - and even he saw his 3,000 majority turn to a 3,000 deficit. Doing better than average just won't cut it in this election in a seat like Cheltenham.
And, only two months ago the Lib Dems wiped out the last Tory councillors in the Borough, so it's not like there is a sign of surprising Tory resilience or Lib Dem weakness in the seat.
i wasn't suggesting the Tories have any chance of holding Cheltenham, just that their vote share might not be down as much as seats with a Ref candidate which is most of them.
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
You sound like George Washington on the subject. Idealistic and unrealistic at the same time.
You can't get rid of parties in politics. What we should be doing is ensuring voters have a sufficiently diverse choice of parties so that there's some chance of actually voting goer something vaguely aligned with their political views. That means PR.
I disagree. We can massively reduce the power of the parties by introducing rules to limit the power of the whips. PR will guive more power to parties as it will legitamise them in the system.
Keir Starmer now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising wealth creators and challenging the NHS to reform, pro-green but putting fiscal prudence first. Where do the Tories find a gap?
The Tories will presumably think 2019 was the answer even though it isn't.
2019 was a freak result created by a combination of the Brexit impasse, Boris Johnson's ability to exploit it, and the widespread revulsion of Tory sympathetic voters for Jeremy Corbyn. Reminder: the Tory GE record since the last Thatcher victory in 1987 is as follows:
Nine elections, eight of which have failed to generate a decisive result in favour of the Conservatives. This whole "natural party of government" schtick is a falsehood; if there was ever any validity to it, Tony Blair and social change killed it off.
As we all, I think, appreciate, 2019 only happened through odd circumstances that brought the red and blue wall voters together in a marriage of convenience. Much of what has happened since has been a demonstration of how to try - very badly - to attempt to mollify two voter groups with sometimes opposing needs and values, and end up alienating both. The simultaneous splintering of up to half of the entire Tory vote in all directions at once is the consequence.
Where does the Conservative Party go from here? Probably spinning off into some populist right, conspiracist cul-de-sac as they chase the Reform vote, leaving homeless centre-right voters to sit on their hands or drift off to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There's always the terrifying possibility that there's enough of a MAGA Republican style vote in this country to get such an entity somewhere close to power, but I have to believe that's not true. American culture is more divided, much more violent and is full of really nasty religious bigots; Britain has an established history of here today, gone tomorrow hard and far right projects.
Just so long as British politics doesn't throw up another full slate of manifestly unsuitable Prime Ministerial options like it did in 2019, there's some reason to be hopeful that a populist hard right Tory party can be contained, until it gets its senses back or dwindles away to nothing. But that's a conversation for another time. First the Tories have to have their catfight and decide what they are now for - and, you never know, they might just surprise us and not pick the most extreme and repellant candidate they can find for their next leader. Stranger things have happened.
I agree; I feel the last couple of decades have been the death throes of the Tory party as Labour basically adopted their economic platform post Thatcher and social progress means the Tory party could no longer (openly) be the "nasty party". What I think people react to is the ideological hegemony that Conservatism has won in the modern era - Blair as an heir to Thatcher and then the harsh austerity that was applied (without a mandate of a big majority to do it) has meant that their politics have had an outsized impact to their vote share. The same with Brexit - the Leave wing of the Tory party didn't win an election until the referendum broke the dam, and Farage didn't need to be an MP to get the influence he had; so they again got to win without a parliamentary majority to back it up. (Those of you who want strong representatives rather than strong parties should really hate referenda for that reason).
I really do think the Tory party will die this election. They may hold on to seats, they will likely be the Opposition, but this is the last hurrah. Labour have their tanks parked on the lawn of Thatcher and Cameron, and Farage on the lawn of Enoch Powell. The Tory party can't really exist in the gap left between those two things. Maybe Farage will allow the Tory party to exist in name, but he'll demand his faction take over, even if electorally his party is the lesser partner. If the Tory party merges with Reform - it will be Reform that is the real party.
There are not enough voters financially comfortable with paid off houses for Cameron centrism to work. any more. People who are struggling will either want wealth redistribution ie Labour or to kick the immigrants out ie Reform.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
The NI rules were bought in as part of a massive overhaul of voting there.
Several hundred thousand voters were disenfranchised. Deliberately. Some said it was unfair to penalise voters for being dead or non-existent.....
Vote early, vote often...
There were times you felt like a 1976 Trade Union delegate - "I vote 1,435,543 votes ".
I like TLDR (the youtube channel, not the concept) but in cases like this they cannot have insider knowledge and so are reduced to repeating polls and adding "gut feeling". It's a bit rude of me to characterise them such, but I'm annoyed by the rise of podcasts - which just means two or more people talking bollocks and getting paid for it - and prefer scripted lectures designed to be delivered to an audience.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
Because it's being done in such a half-arsed way in GB, and does nothing to secure the vote. The system in NI is much more rigorous in just about every respect (two stage registration process, extremely limited postal and proxy voting, etc) so can't really be compared.
Take the "as long as the photo is you" requirement, which devolves to being a matter of opinion for the polling station workers.
Passport photos have a big hologram printed on top of them, making them hard to see properly except under controlled lighting. And many people don't look much like their photo - for example, I've got different hair length and colour, and normally wear glasses.
That's okay at the border because they rely on biometrics rather than manually comparing the photo, but at a polling station you're asking an untrained council worker in a dimly-lit school hall to squint at it and make a guess.
On top of that, there's no way for them to verify or validate the IDs that are presented - so the lowest grade of fake ID would be enough to fool them.
It's pure security theatre, and the only actual effect will be to dissuade some people from voting.
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
Constitutionally, but in reality - no we don't. And, if anything, PR will decrease the power of parties - because it will force parties to split up and work with each other, it will mean governments can't take huge swathes of the country for granted because geographically it will always vote one way or the other. The idea of a representative for a single geographic area when that individual representative likely gets less than 40% of the vote is silly. The system we have was designed specifically to be less democratic, not more. If you want less hegemonic powerful political parties the only way to do that is to get rid of FPTP - because that is what has been propping them up.
Nope, it will have exactly the opposite effect. If you are legally voting for a party rather than a candidate then the party 'owns' that seat for the duration and can pressure the MP to conform.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
I've voted now. After a lifetime of living in marginal seats, and very often voting against the candidate or party I liked least, I felt able to vote for the party I prefer this time - who will certainly lose badly. It was nice.
If everyone in what is now expected to be an ex-marginal seat does what I did and votes for who they prefer we may yet have some very weird vote totals tomorrow morning!
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
Because it's being done in such a half-arsed way in GB, and does nothing to secure the vote. The system in NI is much more rigorous in just about every respect (two stage registration process, extremely limited postal and proxy voting, etc) so can't really be compared.
Take the "as long as the photo is you" requirement, which devolves to being a matter of opinion for the polling station workers.
Passport photos have a big hologram printed on top of them, making them hard to see properly except under controlled lighting. And many people don't look much like their photo - for example, I've got different hair length and colour, and normally wear glasses.
That's okay at the border because they rely on biometrics rather than manually comparing the photo, but at a polling station you're asking an untrained council worker in a dimly-lit school hall to squint at it and make a guess.
On top of that, there's no way for them to verify or validate the IDs that are presented - so the lowest grade of fake ID would be enough to fool them.
It's pure security theatre, and the only actual effect will be to dissuade some people from voting.
When I voted the polling station worker seemed most dubious that my photo ID was actually of me (it was my passport photo, and I've never had a problem with it at an airport), but grudgingly let me vote anyway. I can imagine the requirement will put some people off voting - and I rather suspect that is what it is intended to do.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
Constitutionally, but in reality - no we don't. And, if anything, PR will decrease the power of parties - because it will force parties to split up and work with each other, it will mean governments can't take huge swathes of the country for granted because geographically it will always vote one way or the other. The idea of a representative for a single geographic area when that individual representative likely gets less than 40% of the vote is silly. The system we have was designed specifically to be less democratic, not more. If you want less hegemonic powerful political parties the only way to do that is to get rid of FPTP - because that is what has been propping them up.
Nope, it will have exactly the opposite effect. If you are legally voting for a party rather than a candidate then the party 'owns' that seat for the duration and can pressure the MP to conform.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
Yes, because there is currently no system that parties use to make their MPs conform now... And sure - making whipping and such verboten would be great; but that is much less likely to happen then voting reform. Currently the parties have a stranglehold on every MP within the system we have - why do you keeping that system will help?
Without FPTP, do you think John McDonnell and Keir Starmer would be in the same party? That David Cameron and Rees Mogg would be? I don't...
Looking at 1992 the year of the big poll failure even if we have that sort of failure it only pushes the tories up to 25 to 26% . And the polls have adjusted since to take account of shy tories.
This breakdown of the polls during the campaign, from Freedman’s outfit, is worth a look.
They also make the point that some of Labour’s apparent drop during the campaign arises from those pollsters that made changes to their methodology mid-campaign; a caveat to bear in mind.
For betting purposes, note that the biggest fall from 2019 for the Tories appears to be in the Midlands, and that in London Labour’s vote appears to be slightly down from last time as the campaign draws to a close, but with the Tories also down. Similarly Labour hasn’t made any progress with young people (but did have most of their votes anyway).
Does duckspeaking mean something similar to parroting? Haven't heard that expression before.
One of the newspeak neologisms coined by Orwell in Nineteen Eighty-Four. Basically spouting ill-thought or unthought opinions. Similar to what Chris Morris elicited in The Day To Day with 'Speak Your Brains'.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
The entitled British public have been dreadful this election From lobbing milkshakes to whining on Question Time, it’s been an unedifying look at modern Britain
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls.
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going up that MOUNTAIN.
Comments
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
I voted at dinner time - Labour, Yvette Cooper - polling station was quiet. Another bloke came in while I was there, passed another two on their way in as I Ieft.
I think Labour’s VI falling slightly is a result of this. Very efficient sorting.
I expect a lot of seats to fall the way of Labour and the LDs off some surprisingly ‘normal’ vote shares.
Wrong side of the Trent - a real Southerner.
As Labour governments always do...
Clearly I have gone wrong somewhere.
Not in the Labour manifesto, but not explicitly ruled out.
Post-Truss, I don't think so.
The brand is fucked. They now need to explain exactly how they're going to slash the state in order to win back power.
Now could the Tory brand be so tainted that the party finds it difficult to recover? Certainly possible. But that’s a different equation.
Change really is in the air....
They seemed to be using a time-based sampling method, selecting one person every n minutes. Apparently it didn't feel very 'proper' (no booth, and the box was covered in TV company logos), but she's still pretty excited to have played a part in producing the 10pm announcement.
No I have not had the Truth about Luke Akehurst leaflet. There is a deranged stop Luke Akehurst twitter feed. Guess it must be them. Every post of his on social media attracts some bizarre replies.
They won’t be happy with me or my wife. We both voted labour. The Tories have been so poor although I have little expectation of labour I expect Starmer to be more competent.
A lot of the early seats to declare are likely to have good Reform %s, Reform coming 2nd in seats etc.
This might lead to a swathe of money on Reform related bets - even if the actual %s in them suggest that Reform are underperforming.
Could present an opportunity but YMMV.
I'm sure there have been some with people resident overseas, possibly at a Euros.
2 activists outside the polling station in Evington Rd opposite the Masjid, with posters for Shockat Adam (pro gaza independent) speaking to voters. I didn't think this allowed, though they didn't seem to be intimidating.
2 colleagues asking me what they should vote. Both in a marginal, so I think I tipped them the right TV.
It was early but this is a commuter village and I have never seen the polling booths that quiet.
Several hundred thousand voters were disenfranchised. Deliberately. Some said it was unfair to penalise voters for being dead or non-existent.....
It was pretty quiet, and I went for a Lib Dem TV. Had a chat with the local Lib Dem councillor outside who didn't sound too positive about his lot getting too near Coutinho, but you never know
No tellers at the polling station
Turnout, lively...
The point being, as per the original post, that 2019 was a true outlier. The Conservatives struggle to win. There aren't enough votes anymore in either social conservatism or a small state and, whilst low taxes are usually popular, when they try to square those with the desire of much of their support base for ever higher spending on health and pensions, they discover they can't.
Or even confirmations?
1992 - was very much a working majority. 336 and with being able to reasonably rely on the UUP.
2015 - same position. 331, but with Sinn Fein not turning up, and the DUP likely supporting.
Whilst the failures of FPTP are well known, a better measure might be (at least to assess popularity) vote share:
41.9%, 30.7%, 31.7%, 32.4%, 36.1%, 36.9%, 42.3% and 43.6%
I haven't done it, but it would be interesting to put this up against Labour. Their results, both seats and percentages have hardly been spectacular either (and indeed, have broadly been worse).
https://x.com/staylorish/status/1808788667562947026
Nicola Sturgeon announces the de facto referendum. (28th June 2022)
I suppose there’s as much chance of them recognising the result of this “de facto referendum” as the last one….
Words fail me ! Seen this
https://x.com/erectiongeneral/status/1799491609374982538?s=61
Westminster Voting Intention
LAB: 41% (-1)
CON: 23% (-12)
RFM: 13% (+11)
LDM: 11% (+3)
GRN: 7% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-3)
Via @NCPoliticsUK, 3 Jul.
Changes w/ 21-28 Feb 2022.
The polling clerks were wearing rainbow lanyards. I guess that may have got Reform UK/Conservatives a few more votes.
What are the changes from, BTW? Con -12%
Seb Coe was possibly the MP who did best against the tide in that election - and even he saw his 3,000 majority turn to a 3,000 deficit. Doing better than average just won't cut it in this election in a seat like Cheltenham.
And, only two months ago the Lib Dems wiped out the last Tory councillors in the Borough, so it's not like there is a sign of surprising Tory resilience or Lib Dem weakness in the seat.
Probably...
1984: majority
1987: majority
1992: majority
1997: defeat
2001: defeat
2005: defeat
2010: minority but formed stable government (best in recent times)
2015: majority
2017: minority
2019: majority
2024: TBD
Is a fairer representation
HubrisHistory...It is possible that they are dying, but more likely they will reinvent themselves as they have done many times before.
What they reinvent themselves as is the more interesting question, in my opinion.
It's pretty much my forecast too.
I like TLDR (the youtube channel, not the concept) but in cases like this they cannot have insider knowledge and so are reduced to repeating polls and adding "gut feeling". It's a bit rude of me to characterise them such, but I'm annoyed by the rise of podcasts - which just means two or more people talking bollocks and getting paid for it - and prefer scripted lectures designed to be delivered to an audience.
Take the "as long as the photo is you" requirement, which devolves to being a matter of opinion for the polling station workers.
Passport photos have a big hologram printed on top of them, making them hard to see properly except under controlled lighting. And many people don't look much like their photo - for example, I've got different hair length and colour, and normally wear glasses.
That's okay at the border because they rely on biometrics rather than manually comparing the photo, but at a polling station you're asking an untrained council worker in a dimly-lit school hall to squint at it and make a guess.
On top of that, there's no way for them to verify or validate the IDs that are presented - so the lowest grade of fake ID would be enough to fool them.
It's pure security theatre, and the only actual effect will be to dissuade some people from voting.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’.
No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside.
Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
Without FPTP, do you think John McDonnell and Keir Starmer would be in the same party? That David Cameron and Rees Mogg would be? I don't...
They also make the point that some of Labour’s apparent drop during the campaign arises from those pollsters that made changes to their methodology mid-campaign; a caveat to bear in mind.
For betting purposes, note that the biggest fall from 2019 for the Tories appears to be in the Midlands, and that in London Labour’s vote appears to be slightly down from last time as the campaign draws to a close, but with the Tories also down. Similarly Labour hasn’t made any progress with young people (but did have most of their votes anyway).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWWzFwDTVz4
The entitled British public have been dreadful this election
From lobbing milkshakes to whining on Question Time, it’s been an unedifying look at modern Britain
ROBERT TAYLOR
4 July 2024 • 11:44am
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going up that MOUNTAIN.