Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
I think teenage boys play a small role in general elections.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.
See William Hill offering50-1 Lib Dems 30 or under. I think that is a good bet.
A very good value loser that one.
Bet365 have Cheltenham at 1-9 for the Lib Dems. All the models (And quite frankly a bit of common sense) show that is almost certainly yellow - and in the first 30 seats for them so you can cover your stake that way.
Seat 14, 18, 11, 3, 11, 15, 5, 12, 6.
1-9 is too long regardless of 50-1 < 30 seats. On a bad night for the Lib Dems they probably still take Cheltenham, so you could win both bets
Edit : Added a tab to show the top 30 LD seats by model if anyone fancies a riskier hedge !
It's on GE 2024 Full, Sheet 3
I can't see how they get more than 30 seats without Cheltenham, you never know I suppose
Of course there's no Ref candidate in Cheltenham, so the Tories might do slightly better than if there was one.
Does anyone know how many Tory MPs with a majority of under 1,000 clung on in 1997? I strongly suspect they can be counted on the fingers of no hands.
Seb Coe was possibly the MP who did best against the tide in that election - and even he saw his 3,000 majority turn to a 3,000 deficit. Doing better than average just won't cut it in this election in a seat like Cheltenham.
And, only two months ago the Lib Dems wiped out the last Tory councillors in the Borough, so it's not like there is a sign of surprising Tory resilience or Lib Dem weakness in the seat.
The best Tory defence in 1997 was Wells IIRC
Checking the figures: Wells had a Tory maj of 6,649 (11.6%) in 1992 and they held it by 528 (0.9%) in 1997, perhaps because Michael Eavis, who founded the Glastonbury festival, was the Lab candidate and got 10,204 votes, thus preventing tactical votes.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
I think teenage boys play a small role in general elections.
lol at the pb lefties ignoring “the voters of tomorrow”
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
That only benefits Starmer. I fail to see the logic in the Tories fighting Reform for seats they havent a hope of winning but Reform has. Better to cut a deal and go on the attack against a weak government.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance. I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
I think teenage boys play a small role in general elections.
lol at the pb lefties ignoring “the voters of tomorrow”
Tomorrow they won't be in their mum's bedroom, they will have jobs and will meet girls / boys / other.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance. I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
There should be plenty soon as physiotherapy becomes one of the few jobs left
I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
I always assumed that Dart and Boulter were of roughly equal attractiveness, but watching them play each other, it's not even close. Boulter is fitter by magnitudes.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour. Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.
She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.
So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.
I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.
I always assumed that Dart and Boulter were of roughly equal attractiveness, but watching them play each other, it's not even close. Boulter is fitter by magnitudes.
Good to see we're discussing the most important aspect of women's tennis. 😊
I reckon turnout could be highest in the southwest. Lib Dems always have an excellent GOTV in their target seats and it's full of pensioner voting Tories too. I expect the NE to be dire with both Labour voters sitting it out and Reformers forgetting too.
My ward in Durham North (voted labour @Anabobazina, so, please lay off the ‘life long voter snark’) at lunchtime had had very few voters they were saying. In our close of 30 houses we were the first voters.
That's one of the unknowns of this election, how many people will actually vote?
In this household all 4 of us have voted but I know my parents aren't going to bother and they usually do vote.
Round here there is no buzz at all. No posters, no signs, nothing that would let you know an election was ongoing. I’m expecting a low turnout and a good amount of sub 50% seats.
Broad shape possibly but given how tight some of the races might end up, he may have quite a lot more work to do than in previous years with a lot more opportunity to undermine his reputation if things aren’t as clearly defined as in previous years.
I find it interesting that over on Guido after all the Reform ramping and salivating the members of that team are predicting 2-3 seats for Reform and 124-148 for the Tories, which is higher than many others.
Guido may be right in that similar way to Leon: pinning the tail on the donkey you’re bound to get the right spot 1 time in 100.
But, let’s be frank, Guido is so full of shit that I wouldn’t take the slightest notice of anything he posts today
Hi Heathener
My best wishes to you.
Today is your day. You have been forecasting what is coming long before it was trendy by following the polls.
Vindication will be yours I suspect.
Yes, if the Torys do get an absolute thumping, Heathener called it over a year ago, I must admit I certainly didn't believe her then, and I'm not 100% sure I do now
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
That only benefits Starmer. I fail to see the logic in the Tories fighting Reform for seats they havent a hope of winning but Reform has. Better to cut a deal and go on the attack against a weak government.
I just don't believe Con will ever win a general election pandering to a Putin sympathizer like Farage.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.
There is no other party like it.
I will be voting for them after work.
Worst of all worlds to me. (Well, on a par with the combination of economically left-wing and socially woke, I suppose).
I just wish there was a party to vote for that was economically right-wing and socially liberal. But can't see it happening any time soon...
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour. Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
Except:
“Here’s what you need to know about Nigel Farage’s mastery of TikTok”
I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.
She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.
So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.
I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.
Any comments?
Your address isn’t on your passport so I can’t see how it is relevant on your driving licence.
No bar charts from the LDs for me in this election, no bar charts from anyone in fact, but even though in Local Election terms the LDs are a strong second and Labour nowhere they didn't even attempt to push that angle.
Yet Labour, in an leaflet dropped today, do say 'Only Labour can beat the Tories here'. And the source?
ElectoralCalculus.com 4th June 2024 predicting LDs dropping 5% and Labour up 20%.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour. Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
Except:
“Here’s what you need to know about Nigel Farage’s mastery of TikTok”
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
That only benefits Starmer. I fail to see the logic in the Tories fighting Reform for seats they havent a hope of winning but Reform has. Better to cut a deal and go on the attack against a weak government.
I just don't believe Con will ever win a general election pandering to a Putin sympathizer like Farage.
The British people are far too sensible.
Then they will lose lots of elecions. We see it today in the Red Wall Blue wall split. Southern Tories dont travel well much beyond the prosperous South. In the less well off parts of the country being a Tory is a disadvantage.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.
There is no other party like it.
I will be voting for them after work.
Worst of all worlds to me. (Well, on a par with the combination of economically left-wing and socially woke, I suppose).
I just wish there was a party to vote for that was economically right-wing and socially liberal. But can't see it happening any time soon...
We've had precisely what you want since 1997, if by "economically right wing" you mean neo-liberal. And the country is not in a particularly amazing state for all that....
My mates the conspiracy theorists are going nuts because of pencils provided in polling booths. They're all smugly telling me I'm a fecking idiot and they take their own (green wax crayons) biros in with them. I got abused because I told them if I was counting the votes, I'd be slinging their ink smeared ballots in the bin if they voted the wrong way, and say they were spoiled papers. I'm a WEF shill, in the pay of Bill Gates or something.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
I think teenage boys play a small role in general elections.
lol at the pb lefties ignoring “the voters of tomorrow”
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance. I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
There should be plenty soon as physiotherapy becomes one of the few jobs left
I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
Thanks. Means my travelling days are done, I think. As the song says “I’ve never seen an arma dill a’dillowing in his arma. And I ‘spect I never will.” I’ve cruised down the Upper Mekong, though. And I’ve dived on the Great Barrier Reef. Among others. So I’ve not done too badly.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour. Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
It would be unwise to totally discount it, but it's completely out of line with other age stratified polls including those on issues like immigration and climate change.
More importantly, and not mentioned in the breathless coverage, the combined boy-girl sample size was 201 of which 98 were boys. So they're deriving a Reform percentage literally from an actual "cent" of respondents. The error bars on that sort of sample are...KLAXON-worthy.
I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.
She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.
So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.
I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.
Any comments?
Your address isn’t on your passport so I can’t see how it is relevant on your driving licence.
The tellers are wrong. Your ID doesn't need to have an up to date address. Indeed your ID doesn't itself need to be up to date either. It just needs to be a likeness.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.
There is no other party like it.
I will be voting for them after work.
That's what I wrote originally, believe it or not. They're not standing in my constituency, they have 122 candidates altogether. In all the Sheffield seats they're standing instead of Reform UK in some sort of informal deal.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour. Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?
Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM
My mates the conspiracy theorists are going nuts because of pencils provided in polling booths. They're all smugly telling me I'm a fecking idiot and they take their own (green wax crayons) biros in with them. I got abused because I told them if I was counting the votes, I'd be slinging their ink smeared ballots in the bin if they voted the wrong way, and say they were spoiled papers. I'm a WEF shill, in the pay of Bill Gates or something.
People make themselves the main character in life, perfectly naturally, and I think it shows with the pencil conspiracy theory, because imagine trying to scale up a fraud rubbing out legitimate votes and replacing the pencil mark, in sufficient numbers to change the results.
You'd need a lot of people, and you'd have to be slow and thorough about it, because you actually have to rub out quite a bit to remove evidence of the original vote such that people could not spot it. You'd need to co-opt so many people in the process to get at the ballots in the first place, especially since any delay to verification would be picked up quickly.
If you were going to cheat an election there have to be better ways, stuffing, just faking the numbers etc, but 'They will cross out MY vote' plays more personally.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
That only benefits Starmer. I fail to see the logic in the Tories fighting Reform for seats they havent a hope of winning but Reform has. Better to cut a deal and go on the attack against a weak government.
I just don't believe Con will ever win a general election pandering to a Putin sympathizer like Farage.
The British people are far too sensible.
Then they will lose lots of elecions. We see it today in the Red Wall Blue wall split. Southern Tories dont travel well much beyond the prosperous South. In the less well off parts of the country being a Tory is a disadvantage.
Well anyway, what Con do next is an argument for tomorrow and if they fall under 100 seats or lose Official Opposition status it's all a mute point as they'll be effectively finished.
Their fate is now in the hands of the British public...
Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
I don’t always agree with you on here but 100% agree about the improvement of the food at the Groucho under Mark Hicks. The new owners seem to be a bit stingier with the free booze and food at events but it’s an acceptable trade off for the improvements.
Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?
Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM
At the hustings I attended only one person suggested brownfield first and stuffing town centre plots with housing might not be enough on its own, or that vague platitudes about building more affordable homes (where, who knows?) was the answer.
Oddly enough it was the Green. But they were not the actual candidate, who is from Bristol Central, so was just there on behalf of the party generally I guess so perhaps off message.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
If you'll forgive me, that's too ambiguous as a comment imo, and confuses categories, and some of us may not be picking up quite what you intend to say. Unfit people is one thing, and we need to distinguish between "electric mobility scooters" (which are regulated mobility aids) and "electric scooters" (which are objects of hatred and anti-social behaviour) in the minds of some people.
As one point that is not well known, for many push-scooters - or a normal pushbike - are their most effective and most suitable mobility aid.
For many people becoming mobility impaired is not something they have been able to control - my condition Type 1 diabetes, for example, is essentially random (me: stomach bug killed my pancreas at age 34). And you then have to live with all the complications of managing the condition, and accept that there is a chance that you may end up with damage or blind eyes, no feeling in your hands or feet, and eventually amputations.
For me that has affected major decisions, from my decision to change pension arrangements because the official line was an expected life expectancy reduction of 15 years, to my decision to live within walking distance of everything necessary as I could end up with no driving license if I have ONE hypo episode that requires third-party assistance. With many, many more along the way.
There is also that much of our infrastructure is difficult or impossible to use for walking and wheeling; it's a standard experience for disabled people to be tipped out of their wheelchairs or tricycles by unsafe access ramps, or because some unthinking oaf has blocked it with their motor "because I need to - cant you wait or go in the road?", and they are left stranded.
Had that 8 weeks ago at the main pedestrian access to my local hospital, and all the people wheeling had to go 200m back down the pavement and wheel up the carriageway of the main drive which has 5000-6000 vehicle movements per day. Just because one selfish prat couldn't be bothered to put his Mercedes in a free parking space 20m further away. On gentle challenge it went from "but I need to" to "but I'm not causing a problem" to "fuck off, you prat".
I'm not challenging you in person particularly, but there's a deep cultural ignorance to be addressed.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour. Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.
There is no other party like it.
I will be voting for them after work.
Worst of all worlds to me. (Well, on a par with the combination of economically left-wing and socially woke, I suppose).
I just wish there was a party to vote for that was economically right-wing and socially liberal. But can't see it happening any time soon...
We've had precisely what you want since 1997, if by "economically right wing" you mean neo-liberal. And the country is not in a particularly amazing state for all that....
I don't think that's true. Perhaps rightish principles have been hinted at, but we've not seen anything approaching a move towards a smaller state and less regulation.
Is it possible to bet anywhere on the Labour lead over Tory being X %? I think it's going to be closer than the polls show (without affecting seats). Betfair Exchange doesn't seem to have this option.
Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.
Councils did have plenty of dead wood and have weathered cuts quite well since 2010, so I don't think enough people realise how precarious many are right now, and whilst the parties have mentioned it a bit in relation to Planning, I don't think the common people have any concept of what is going on. When planning departments are in local news people default to casual accusations of corruption and a belief the purpose of planning systems is to stop things, not deliver things in a good way.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
I don’t always agree with you on here but 100% agree about the improvement of the food at the Groucho under Mark Hicks. The new owners seem to be a bit stingier with the free booze and food at events but it’s an acceptable trade off for the improvements.
Finally some real consensus on PB on amajor issue of the day
The food at the Groucho under Mark Hix is a vast improvement
Now maybe we can move on to more areas where the is room for accord. Like: Business Class in Eva Air keeps on getting better, or the Whitsundays are the best place for helisurfing
Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?
Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM
There's a new constituency of Kingswinford and South Staffordshire. Dudley South and North become just Dudley.
Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?
Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM
He has a notional majority of nearly 30,000 in the new seat, he's the 7th safest Tory
I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.
She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.
So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.
I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.
Any comments?
As others have said, this is sheer nonsense. ID is, as the name suggests, to confirm your identity, not your address.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
I don’t always agree with you on here but 100% agree about the improvement of the food at the Groucho under Mark Hicks. The new owners seem to be a bit stingier with the free booze and food at events but it’s an acceptable trade off for the improvements.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour. Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
Except:
“Here’s what you need to know about Nigel Farage’s mastery of TikTok”
I assumed the answer was bot farms pushing him on the algorithm?
No, he is genuinely popular. The Guardian - presumably through gritted teeth - has actually run a series of articles on this: the real popularity of Farage - and other European populists - on social media, and they dexterity in using it
Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.
Councils did have plenty of dead wood and have weathered cuts quite well since 2010, so I don't think enough people realise how precarious many are right now, and whilst the parties have mentioned it a bit in relation to Planning, I don't think the common people have any concept of what is going on. When planning departments are in local news people default to casual accusations of corruption and a belief the purpose of planning systems is to stop things, not deliver things in a good way.
At the moment the councils that have effectively gone bust, like Brum, Notts and Woking, are down to their own incompetence over many years.
I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
Looking at betting moves the conservative 100 to 149 and 50 to 99 seat bands now show as equally likely. But the main move is conservative vs reform most votes where reform have come in dramtically to 3/1 now. I think they were about 8/1 yesterday. This shows reform may well be overperforming.
Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.
Councils did have plenty of dead wood and have weathered cuts quite well since 2010, so I don't think enough people realise how precarious many are right now, and whilst the parties have mentioned it a bit in relation to Planning, I don't think the common people have any concept of what is going on. When planning departments are in local news people default to casual accusations of corruption and a belief the purpose of planning systems is to stop things, not deliver things in a good way.
At the moment the councils that have effectively gone bust, like Brum, Notts and Woking, are down to their own incompetence over many years.
I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
Yes, things are close to a tipping point but the big stories are the egregious councils.
The ‘Most seats without Labour’ market was about 4.5 for the Lib Dems for weeks.
In the last few days, it had drifted out to 7.5.
Today it’s started creeping back up. Currently 5.1.
Probably just noise, but still.
I have some long term trading bets on this. Have decided to stick with it until the end and just hope I get lucky. Anecdotally I’m hearing from tons of friends and acquaintances voting Lib Dem for the first time today.
The election post-mortem might attribute a lot of Lib Dem seats to Starmer's refusal to pander to EU-philes.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance. I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
There should be plenty soon as physiotherapy becomes one of the few jobs left
I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
Thanks. Means my travelling days are done, I think. As the song says “I’ve never seen an arma dill a’dillowing in his arma. And I ‘spect I never will.” I’ve cruised down the Upper Mekong, though. And I’ve dived on the Great Barrier Reef. Among others. So I’ve not done too badly.
As a note (which may or may not help), do you have other channels to get a physio?
If I need one I can get X sessions a year through my health cash plan, for example.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
I don’t always agree with you on here but 100% agree about the improvement of the food at the Groucho under Mark Hicks. The new owners seem to be a bit stingier with the free booze and food at events but it’s an acceptable trade off for the improvements.
Is it open to everyone or members only?
It's a members club but Hix has other restaurants open to all, eg in Lyme Regis
Anthony Scaramucci on the Rest is Politics US believes that Biden will resign this month so that Kamala Harris can become president before the election.
Will that rob the voters of their ability to make her the first woman President? They will just be rubber stamping it.
It would rob voters of their ability to make Kamala Harris the 47th president, although they knew there was a chance this would happen when they voted to make Joe Biden the 46th. Same with LBJ after JFK was assassinated.
Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?
Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM
He has a notional majority of nearly 30,000 in the new seat, he's the 7th safest Tory
Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.
Councils did have plenty of dead wood and have weathered cuts quite well since 2010, so I don't think enough people realise how precarious many are right now, and whilst the parties have mentioned it a bit in relation to Planning, I don't think the common people have any concept of what is going on. When planning departments are in local news people default to casual accusations of corruption and a belief the purpose of planning systems is to stop things, not deliver things in a good way.
At the moment the councils that have effectively gone bust, like Brum, Notts and Woking, are down to their own incompetence over many years.
I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
Notts council isn't bust. Nottingham is, but you can't abbreviate it to Notts to my mind.
Tories could lose 4.5m votes as they did in 97. Or more.
Lots of Tories will sit on their hands.
I’m more interested in if labour lose votes compared to 2019 and lose share and how their vote efficiency improves moving from Corbyn to Starmer. Labours polling has been falling from low forties to late thirties over the last week.
A thumping labour majority on a smaller vote and smaller percentage vote than they got in 2019 would make for a good argument for PR.
The ‘Most seats without Labour’ market was about 4.5 for the Lib Dems for weeks.
In the last few days, it had drifted out to 7.5.
Today it’s started creeping back up. Currently 5.1.
Probably just noise, but still.
I have some long term trading bets on this. Have decided to stick with it until the end and just hope I get lucky. Anecdotally I’m hearing from tons of friends and acquaintances voting Lib Dem for the first time today.
The election post-mortem might attribute a lot of Lib Dem seats to Starmer's refusal to pander to EU-philes.
Yes I think Starmer will totally 180 on Europe post election, once the majority is secured. But would be funny if his comments yesterday on not rejoining in his lifetime, mean that the Lib Dems and Labour both pincer the Tories in seats more effectively somehow.
Been to vote in Flatland Central. Pointless really - the Red Team will accumulate > 50%. I have still not seen a single election poster in the constituency and voting was anything but brisk.
Our soon to be new MP was previously a prison officer but it seems to be a union connection that got her the job which is not particularly encouraging.
I don't really want to be responsible for what comes next so I voted Con because their candidate isn't terrible and the Lib Dems are absent.
Reform are likely to be competing for second with the Tories in any case and with the longer term in mind I'd rather they were beaten into third (this is probably a forlorn hope).
If it was a marginal seat I'd have had a much more difficult choice.
If Starmer surprises on the upside I'll be as pleased as anyone but I can't say I want him to have a 250 seat majority on 38% of the vote.
Given the dramatic shortening of Reform most seats vs conservatives im going to have a bet on them at 3/1. Someone may know something or it may be noise we will find out soon enough.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance. I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
There should be plenty soon as physiotherapy becomes one of the few jobs left
I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
Thanks. Means my travelling days are done, I think. As the song says “I’ve never seen an arma dill a’dillowing in his arma. And I ‘spect I never will.” I’ve cruised down the Upper Mekong, though. And I’ve dived on the Great Barrier Reef. Among others. So I’ve not done too badly.
As a note (which may or may not help), do you have other channels to get a physio?
If I need one I can get X sessions a year through my health cash plan, for example.
Thanks; there's an excellent local private physio practice, but last time I talked to him he was reluctant to get involved, since he mainly deals in sport and other activity related problems. Been thinking of giving him another call, though, since the situation is slowly improving.
Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.
Councils did have plenty of dead wood and have weathered cuts quite well since 2010, so I don't think enough people realise how precarious many are right now, and whilst the parties have mentioned it a bit in relation to Planning, I don't think the common people have any concept of what is going on. When planning departments are in local news people default to casual accusations of corruption and a belief the purpose of planning systems is to stop things, not deliver things in a good way.
At the moment the councils that have effectively gone bust, like Brum, Notts and Woking, are down to their own incompetence over many years.
I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
Notts council isn't bust. Nottingham is, but you can't abbreviate it to Notts to my mind.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance. I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
There should be plenty soon as physiotherapy becomes one of the few jobs left
I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
Thanks. Means my travelling days are done, I think. As the song says “I’ve never seen an arma dill a’dillowing in his arma. And I ‘spect I never will.” I’ve cruised down the Upper Mekong, though. And I’ve dived on the Great Barrier Reef. Among others. So I’ve not done too badly.
As a note (which may or may not help), do you have other channels to get a physio?
If I need one I can get X sessions a year through my health cash plan, for example.
Thanks; there's an excellent local private physio practice, but last time I talked to him he was reluctant to get involved, since he mainly deals in sport and other activity related problems. Been thinking of giving him another call, though, since the situation is slowly improving.
For your circs, your local branch of Age UK may be a good source of advice to find local non-sports-focused physios.
They may have a staffer or two based in the local hospital who's core role is likely to be advising on adaptations, but who may be able to signpost you usefully in a short telephone call.
I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.
She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.
So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.
I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.
Any comments?
As others have said, this is sheer nonsense. ID is, as the name suggests, to confirm your identity, not your address.
It's worrying that the tellers gave an incorrect response.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.
There is no other party like it.
I will be voting for them after work.
Worst of all worlds to me. (Well, on a par with the combination of economically left-wing and socially woke, I suppose).
I just wish there was a party to vote for that was economically right-wing and socially liberal. But can't see it happening any time soon...
We've had precisely what you want since 1997, if by "economically right wing" you mean neo-liberal. And the country is not in a particularly amazing state for all that....
I don't think that's true. Perhaps rightish principles have been hinted at, but we've not seen anything approaching a move towards a smaller state and less regulation.
Quite. The closest we came to it was Coalition 'Austerity' (which barely scratched the surface in reality) and other ideas from that time like streamlining quangos and abolishing two pieces of legislation for every new one drafted, which were quietly forgotten.
The state is bigger than its ever been, tax take is higher than ever, and the system is more complicated and unwieldy than at any point in history.
Evidence for genuine economic libertarianism is scant at best and merely calling something 'right wing' doesn't make it so, whatever the left choose to believe...
It's a bit unfortunate to have 2 British competitors playing against each other atm on court number one with Dart v Boulter, when we have so few top players to begin with.
Could Wimbledon really not have sorted this out with some British seeding?
Are you for real? Seeding is done based on ranking points coming in. Unseeded players are then drawn out of a hat, with the route to the final determined at the start (unlike say the FA Cup in football which redraws each round).
Personally I do not like seeding at all - I'd rather a random draw, but seeding is better for keeping the top players apart until the second week.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
Because it's being done in such a half-arsed way in GB, and does nothing to secure the vote. The system in NI is much more rigorous in just about every respect (two stage registration process, extremely limited postal and proxy voting, etc) so can't really be compared.
Take the "as long as the photo is you" requirement, which devolves to being a matter of opinion for the polling station workers.
Passport photos have a big hologram printed on top of them, making them hard to see properly except under controlled lighting. And many people don't look much like their photo - for example, I've got different hair length and colour, and normally wear glasses.
That's okay at the border because they rely on biometrics rather than manually comparing the photo, but at a polling station you're asking an untrained council worker in a dimly-lit school hall to squint at it and make a guess.
On top of that, there's no way for them to verify or validate the IDs that are presented - so the lowest grade of fake ID would be enough to fool them.
It's pure security theatre, and the only actual effect will be to dissuade some people from voting.
I agree with restricted postal voting - it should be the exception not the norm. I cannot agree re ID though. The caveat that I always say is that you should either hand in your polling card OR prove who you are.
There is very little security around polling cards. I don't see the point in a system that accepts possession of a polling card as proof of ID.
Before the introduction of the ID requirement, possession of a polling card was not taken as proof of ID - indeed, you didn't need to bring it. Saying "I am Sir Norfolk Passmore, and I am here to vote", was taken as perfectly sufficient. As, indeed, giving your name is perfectly sufficient for a range of circumstances.
Personation was always vanishingly rare because it's very hard to get away with - ID requirement or not. A lot of places have CCTV, and you ran a huge risk of polling staff or other in the queue saying "Hang on a moment, that ain't Sir Norfolk..."
The ID requirement was a bureaucratic nonsense designed to marginally reduce turnout by people who are fairly unlikely to vote Tory. It was an expensive solution to a problem that nobody at any point could show existed.
And yet many if not most other countries use voter ID. I think for something as important as the vote, you should have to at least do as much as when you pick up mail from the post office. As long as access to said ID is easy, then what is the issue? If someone is so disengaged that they don't understand the need for ID, then frankly I'm not sure we want their vote (many will disagree).
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
Constitutionally, but in reality - no we don't. And, if anything, PR will decrease the power of parties - because it will force parties to split up and work with each other, it will mean governments can't take huge swathes of the country for granted because geographically it will always vote one way or the other. The idea of a representative for a single geographic area when that individual representative likely gets less than 40% of the vote is silly. The system we have was designed specifically to be less democratic, not more. If you want less hegemonic powerful political parties the only way to do that is to get rid of FPTP - because that is what has been propping them up.
Nope, it will have exactly the opposite effect. If you are legally voting for a party rather than a candidate then the party 'owns' that seat for the duration and can pressure the MP to conform.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
I quite like the German system whereby about half of the MPs are elected directly by their constituents, while the other half of the MPs are "top-ups" from party lists to make the total numbers roughly proportional. This means that a direct link is retained between constituencies and their representative, while minority parties (and hence viewpoints) also get proper representation. After all, we are, these days, identified as least as much by our worldviews as our geographical locations.
And you can see such a system in operation for the London Assembly
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
They're completely bonkers is what they are, I detected no underlying thread behind the policies in their manifesto (which was at least better designed than the others).
The biggest thing about them is they are really anti-immigrant.
It was just a brand lying about in the gutter, which someone has picked up and turned into something else.
Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.
There is so much misinformation about local government and planning it is painful. The idea that senior planning officers have been made redundant as the result of austerity is not consistent with the fact they can be paid up to £150k per year working as contractors with near unlimited demand from Councils, even more for managers/senior managers. That is a reflection of the fact that the government have made the job so impossible with their insane policies and laws along with toxic politics that few people have the skills/patience to do it anymore. Recruiting 300 more will change little because many will leave the profession and you can't force them to stay. The actual problem is probably that many are just retiring because they are old and they are not being replaced because the job is so grim.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
Because it's being done in such a half-arsed way in GB, and does nothing to secure the vote. The system in NI is much more rigorous in just about every respect (two stage registration process, extremely limited postal and proxy voting, etc) so can't really be compared.
Take the "as long as the photo is you" requirement, which devolves to being a matter of opinion for the polling station workers.
Passport photos have a big hologram printed on top of them, making them hard to see properly except under controlled lighting. And many people don't look much like their photo - for example, I've got different hair length and colour, and normally wear glasses.
That's okay at the border because they rely on biometrics rather than manually comparing the photo, but at a polling station you're asking an untrained council worker in a dimly-lit school hall to squint at it and make a guess.
On top of that, there's no way for them to verify or validate the IDs that are presented - so the lowest grade of fake ID would be enough to fool them.
It's pure security theatre, and the only actual effect will be to dissuade some people from voting.
I agree with restricted postal voting - it should be the exception not the norm. I cannot agree re ID though. The caveat that I always say is that you should either hand in your polling card OR prove who you are.
There is very little security around polling cards. I don't see the point in a system that accepts possession of a polling card as proof of ID.
Before the introduction of the ID requirement, possession of a polling card was not taken as proof of ID - indeed, you didn't need to bring it. Saying "I am Sir Norfolk Passmore, and I am here to vote", was taken as perfectly sufficient. As, indeed, giving your name is perfectly sufficient for a range of circumstances.
Personation was always vanishingly rare because it's very hard to get away with - ID requirement or not. A lot of places have CCTV, and you ran a huge risk of polling staff or other in the queue saying "Hang on a moment, that ain't Sir Norfolk..."
The ID requirement was a bureaucratic nonsense designed to marginally reduce turnout by people who are fairly unlikely to vote Tory. It was an expensive solution to a problem that nobody at any point could show existed.
And yet many if not most other countries use voter ID. I think for something as important as the vote, you should have to at least do as much as when you pick up mail from the post office. As long as access to said ID is easy, then what is the issue? If someone is so disengaged that they don't understand the need for ID, then frankly I'm not sure we want their vote (many will disagree).
A year ago, Jacob Rees-Mogg publicly accepted that the photo ID rules were simple gerrymandering. And possibly worse: they were counterproductive because they suppressed the votes of the wrong people.
It's absurd to defend a self-defeating stunt now under attack from one of the shower introducing it. And as for this claptrap about "other countries use it".... As my old mum (RIP) used to put it "if everyone else stuck their hand in a fire, would you?"
Voted a couple of hours ago here in Ilford North, and it seemed really quiet. Pretty certain SKY news were outside my polling station in the morning (caption just called it "East London"), but they had long gone by the time I turned up!
I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.
She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.
So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.
I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.
Any comments?
As others have said, this is sheer nonsense. ID is, as the name suggests, to confirm your identity, not your address.
It's worrying that the tellers gave an incorrect response.
Why, they are jsut some dork picked up off the street for a days work, probably had 30 minutes training on very basics.
Comments
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1808848239241617482
There is no other party like it.
I will be voting for them after work.
Checking the figures: Wells had a Tory maj of 6,649 (11.6%) in 1992 and they held it by 528 (0.9%) in 1997, perhaps because Michael Eavis, who founded the Glastonbury festival, was the Lab candidate and got 10,204 votes, thus preventing tactical votes.
I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour.
Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.
She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.
So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.
I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.
Any comments?
The British people are far too sensible.
Worst of all worlds to me. (Well, on a par with the combination of economically left-wing and socially woke, I suppose).
I just wish there was a party to vote for that was economically right-wing and socially liberal. But can't see it happening any time soon...
“Here’s what you need to know about Nigel Farage’s mastery of TikTok”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/02/nigel-farage-tiktok-stardom-reform-uk-leader-content-creator
Yet Labour, in an leaflet dropped today, do say 'Only Labour can beat the Tories here'. And the source?
ElectoralCalculus.com 4th June 2024 predicting LDs dropping 5% and Labour up 20%.
What a dickhead.
I’ve cruised down the Upper Mekong, though. And I’ve dived on the Great Barrier Reef. Among others. So I’ve not done too badly.
More importantly, and not mentioned in the breathless coverage, the combined boy-girl sample size was 201 of which 98 were boys. So they're deriving a Reform percentage literally from an actual "cent" of respondents. The error bars on that sort of sample are...KLAXON-worthy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM
You'd need a lot of people, and you'd have to be slow and thorough about it, because you actually have to rub out quite a bit to remove evidence of the original vote such that people could not spot it. You'd need to co-opt so many people in the process to get at the ballots in the first place, especially since any delay to verification would be picked up quickly.
If you were going to cheat an election there have to be better ways, stuffing, just faking the numbers etc, but 'They will cross out MY vote' plays more personally.
Their fate is now in the hands of the British public...
Simple. Effective.
https://twitter.com/uklabour/status/1808848243373322488
Works especially well if your device autoplays sound. Less well if you automute, like I do.
https://x.com/jonneale/status/1808537940395765980?s=61
Oddly enough it was the Green. But they were not the actual candidate, who is from Bristol Central, so was just there on behalf of the party generally I guess so perhaps off message.
As one point that is not well known, for many push-scooters - or a normal pushbike - are their most effective and most suitable mobility aid.
For many people becoming mobility impaired is not something they have been able to control - my condition Type 1 diabetes, for example, is essentially random (me: stomach bug killed my pancreas at age 34). And you then have to live with all the complications of managing the condition, and accept that there is a chance that you may end up with damage or blind eyes, no feeling in your hands or feet, and eventually amputations.
For me that has affected major decisions, from my decision to change pension arrangements because the official line was an expected life expectancy reduction of 15 years, to my decision to live within walking distance of everything necessary as I could end up with no driving license if I have ONE hypo episode that requires third-party assistance. With many, many more along the way.
There is also that much of our infrastructure is difficult or impossible to use for walking and wheeling; it's a standard experience for disabled people to be tipped out of their wheelchairs or tricycles by unsafe access ramps, or because some unthinking oaf has blocked it with their motor "because I need to - cant you wait or go in the road?", and they are left stranded.
Had that 8 weeks ago at the main pedestrian access to my local hospital, and all the people wheeling had to go 200m back down the pavement and wheel up the carriageway of the main drive which has 5000-6000 vehicle movements per day. Just because one selfish prat couldn't be bothered to put his Mercedes in a free parking space 20m further away. On gentle challenge it went from "but I need to" to "but I'm not causing a problem" to "fuck off, you prat".
I'm not challenging you in person particularly, but there's a deep cultural ignorance to be addressed.
The food at the Groucho under Mark Hix is a vast improvement
Now maybe we can move on to more areas where the is room for accord. Like: Business Class in Eva Air keeps on getting better, or the Whitsundays are the best place for helisurfing
I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
In the last few days, it had drifted out to 7.5.
Today it’s started creeping back up. Currently 5.1.
Probably just noise, but still. Anecdotally I’m hearing from tons of friends and acquaintances voting Lib Dem for the first time today.
I have some long term trading bets on this. Have decided to stick with it until the end and just hope I get lucky, instead of trading some out.
1983: 67.0%
1987: 70.8%
1992: 71.2%
1997: 68.7%
2001: 54.4%
2005: 56.6%
2010: 59.8%
Maybe there's always been a certain sense of political disillusionment in that area.
But the main move is conservative vs reform most votes where reform have come in dramtically to 3/1 now. I think they were about 8/1 yesterday. This shows reform may well be overperforming.
If I need one I can get X sessions a year through my health cash plan, for example.
https://theoysterandfishhouse.co.uk/
He's really good with fish.
NEW THREAD
Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5
Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4
Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4
ANME SNP £25 13/8
Our soon to be new MP was previously a prison officer but it seems to be a union connection that got her the job which is not particularly encouraging.
I don't really want to be responsible for what comes next so I voted Con because their candidate isn't terrible and the Lib Dems are absent.
Reform are likely to be competing for second with the Tories in any case and with the longer term in mind I'd rather they were beaten into third (this is probably a forlorn hope).
If it was a marginal seat I'd have had a much more difficult choice.
If Starmer surprises on the upside I'll be as pleased as anyone but I can't say I want him to have a 250 seat majority on 38% of the vote.
Been thinking of giving him another call, though, since the situation is slowly improving.
They may have a staffer or two based in the local hospital who's core role is likely to be advising on adaptations, but who may be able to signpost you usefully in a short telephone call.
But it's all quite tactical.
The state is bigger than its ever been, tax take is higher than ever, and the system is more complicated and unwieldy than at any point in history.
Evidence for genuine economic libertarianism is scant at best and merely calling something 'right wing' doesn't make it so, whatever the left choose to believe...
Personally I do not like seeding at all - I'd rather a random draw, but seeding is better for keeping the top players apart until the second week.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-is-a-gerrymandering-scheme-admits-jacob-rees-mogg/
It's absurd to defend a self-defeating stunt now under attack from one of the shower introducing it. And as for this claptrap about "other countries use it".... As my old mum (RIP) used to put it "if everyone else stuck their hand in a fire, would you?"