Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
'Now. George Osborne. Probable hung parliament with Labour the largest party. Why did the opinion polls all get it so spectacularly wrong?'
Which raises the election day question of what is the minimum that has to happen for there to be a sane, unionist, non Tory government.
SFAICS as long as Lab and LD get c320 between them (taking account of SF absence), we have the makings of a government. This would seem to require something like: Labour gain 20 from SNP LD gain 30 from Tories Labour gain 60 from Tories Lab approx 280. LD approx 40.
On those outcomes the Tories would still have about 270-275 seats, but nowhere close to government, and they + the other MPs could not possibly unite against the 320.
So I think we can go to bed at 10pm safe in our beds.
I think you can go to bed now knowing who will be PM tomorrow!
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
Because it's being done in such a half-arsed way in GB, and does nothing to secure the vote. The system in NI is much more rigorous in just about every respect (two stage registration process, extremely limited postal and proxy voting, etc) so can't really be compared.
Take the "as long as the photo is you" requirement, which devolves to being a matter of opinion for the polling station workers.
Passport photos have a big hologram printed on top of them, making them hard to see properly except under controlled lighting. And many people don't look much like their photo - for example, I've got different hair length and colour, and normally wear glasses.
That's okay at the border because they rely on biometrics rather than manually comparing the photo, but at a polling station you're asking an untrained council worker in a dimly-lit school hall to squint at it and make a guess.
On top of that, there's no way for them to verify or validate the IDs that are presented - so the lowest grade of fake ID would be enough to fool them.
It's pure security theatre, and the only actual effect will be to dissuade some people from voting.
I agree with restricted postal voting - it should be the exception not the norm. I cannot agree re ID though. The caveat that I always say is that you should either hand in your polling card OR prove who you are.
There is very little security around polling cards. I don't see the point in a system that accepts possession of a polling card as proof of ID.
Before the introduction of the ID requirement, possession of a polling card was not taken as proof of ID - indeed, you didn't need to bring it. Saying "I am Sir Norfolk Passmore, and I am here to vote", was taken as perfectly sufficient. As, indeed, giving your name is perfectly sufficient for a range of circumstances.
Personation was always vanishingly rare because it's very hard to get away with - ID requirement or not. A lot of places have CCTV, and you ran a huge risk of polling staff or other in the queue saying "Hang on a moment, that ain't Sir Norfolk..."
The ID requirement was a bureaucratic nonsense designed to marginally reduce turnout by people who are fairly unlikely to vote Tory. It was an expensive solution to a problem that nobody at any point could show existed.
Agreed. I'm fine with how things were.
And I'm fine with polling cards being a thing that helps voters know where to go. That's all they're meant to be.
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Extremely unlikely but hilarious scenario Labour 400 seats but lose Phillipson and Cooper to a Reform red wall surge Debonnaire to the Greens Streeting to Leanne Mohammed
Leanne Mohamad is ahead on my Ilford North poster count but as I saw none for Wes Streeting, I'm assuming it is so safe they did not bother.
Nonetheless, Labour to face its own Portillo moments is an interesting idea.
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Will it be like the EU Ref when remainers "forgot to vote" ?
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
Constitutionally, but in reality - no we don't. And, if anything, PR will decrease the power of parties - because it will force parties to split up and work with each other, it will mean governments can't take huge swathes of the country for granted because geographically it will always vote one way or the other. The idea of a representative for a single geographic area when that individual representative likely gets less than 40% of the vote is silly. The system we have was designed specifically to be less democratic, not more. If you want less hegemonic powerful political parties the only way to do that is to get rid of FPTP - because that is what has been propping them up.
Nope, it will have exactly the opposite effect. If you are legally voting for a party rather than a candidate then the party 'owns' that seat for the duration and can pressure the MP to conform.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
Yes, because there is currently no system that parties use to make their MPs conform now... And sure - making whipping and such verboten would be great; but that is much less likely to happen then voting reform. Currently the parties have a stranglehold on every MP within the system we have - why do you keeping that system will help?
Without FPTP, do you think John McDonnell and Keir Starmer would be in the same party? That David Cameron and Rees Mogg would be? I don't...
Richard appears to favour a system of democracy which would require someone like him as dictator to enforce the rules he suggests. They're just not realistic.
The reason I made the U.S. comparison is they set up an entire constitution designed to inhibit the influence of 'faction' (ie parties). Something on which most of the framers agreed.
In that respect it was a miserable failure.
On the other hand the German constitution, or Basic Law, was written with the overriding aim of hindering the rise of another dictator. And it enshrines the role of political parties Article 21 begins:
"Political parties shall participate in the formation of the political will of the people. They may be freely established. Their internal organisation must conform to democratic principles."
More here (in English) including a legal definition of a political party:
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
It's competitive apathy all round:
Tories: "There's no reason to give us a kicking. We're already down and out." Labour: "There's no reason to be afraid of us. We're not going to do anything." Lib Dems: "There's no reason to laugh at us. We're not taking it seriously anyway."
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
No, it won't. Labour are going to win big. We don't know whether it's going to be big, BIG or BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG yet, but we will at 10:01.
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Will it be like the EU Ref when remainers "forgot to vote" ?
I'm sure we've all done this already, but just in case.
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
I reckon turnout could be highest in the southwest. Lib Dems always have an excellent GOTV in their target seats and it's full of pensioner voting Tories too. I expect the NE to be dire with both Labour voters sitting it out and Reformers forgetting too.
'Now. George Osborne. Probable hung parliament with Labour the largest party. Why did the opinion polls all get it so spectacularly wrong?'
Where did you get that from? Osborne yesterday was suggesting the Conservatives weren't going anywhere and today he's working on ITV. Are you sure he isn't just wargaming options for tonight's ITV programme?
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
SeanF suggested Con 330 seats? Is this a joke?
Yes. Especially if John Curtice then went on to say, "just a bit of fun."
Anyhow I’ve walked about 7.5 miles today so I’m going to have a shower and then see if I can sleep for a couple of hours to get me ready for tonight.
I was sitting in RHS cafe talking with my friend about the election, quietly I thought, when a couple of people joined in our convo and had a right go at Nigel Farage. I felt fairly safe in talking about Labour.
I did have a sense of coming change out and about today but that could be projection.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sporting of you. Genetics, chance, and occupation all have their go. Lots of elderly miners where I come from, for instance. And some folk were never able to do so.
Interesting implications for people who might otherwise be forced to leave their homes or even communities.
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
SeanF suggested Con 330 seats? Is this a joke?
Yes. Especially if John Curtice then went on to say, "just a bit of fun."
With his Betfair account set up to make a fortune on the misinfo
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
No, it won't. Labour are going to win big. We don't know whether it's going to be big, BIG or BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG yet, but we will at 10:01.
Betting money is still on Con just over 100 seats so unless Reform match it, not remotely close!
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
That's really interesting - broadens one's horizons, and here I'm talking (also) about the politically aware who might not have thought about the implications of public or corporate policies. Like cash and banks and so on, it's all too easy for the middle aged better off male dominated PB to miss this sort of issue.
The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
Constitutionally, but in reality - no we don't. And, if anything, PR will decrease the power of parties - because it will force parties to split up and work with each other, it will mean governments can't take huge swathes of the country for granted because geographically it will always vote one way or the other. The idea of a representative for a single geographic area when that individual representative likely gets less than 40% of the vote is silly. The system we have was designed specifically to be less democratic, not more. If you want less hegemonic powerful political parties the only way to do that is to get rid of FPTP - because that is what has been propping them up.
Nope, it will have exactly the opposite effect. If you are legally voting for a party rather than a candidate then the party 'owns' that seat for the duration and can pressure the MP to conform.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
Yes, because there is currently no system that parties use to make their MPs conform now... And sure - making whipping and such verboten would be great; but that is much less likely to happen then voting reform. Currently the parties have a stranglehold on every MP within the system we have - why do you keeping that system will help?
Without FPTP, do you think John McDonnell and Keir Starmer would be in the same party? That David Cameron and Rees Mogg would be? I don't...
Richard appears to favour a system of democracy which would require someone like him as dictator to enforce the rules he suggests. They're just not realistic.
The reason I made the U.S. comparison is they set up an entire constitution designed to inhibit the influence of 'faction' (ie parties). Something on which most of the framers agreed.
In that respect it was a miserable failure.
On the other hand the German constitution, or Basic Law, was written with the overriding aim of hindering the rise of another dictator. And it enshrines the role of political parties Article 21 begins:
"Political parties shall participate in the formation of the political will of the people. They may be freely established. Their internal organisation must conform to democratic principles."
More here (in English) including a legal definition of a political party:
'Now. George Osborne. Probable hung parliament with Labour the largest party. Why did the opinion polls all get it so spectacularly wrong?'
Where did you get that from? Osborne yesterday was suggesting the Conservatives weren't going anywhere and today he's working on ITV. Are you sure he isn't just wargaming options for tonight's ITV programme?
I was just daydreaming about what we might hear later tonight.
I'm sure we've all done this already, but just in case.
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
I'm sure we've all done this already, but just in case.
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
'Now. George Osborne. Probable hung parliament with Labour the largest party. Why did the opinion polls all get it so spectacularly wrong?'
Where did you get that from? Osborne yesterday was suggesting the Conservatives weren't going anywhere and today he's working on ITV. Are you sure he isn't just wargaming options for tonight's ITV programme?
I was just daydreaming about what we might hear later tonight.
I could do without all these jokes and imagined scenarios!!!! You sent me scurrying off to Osborne’s twitter feed to check
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
No, it won't. Labour are going to win big. We don't know whether it's going to be big, BIG or BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG yet, but we will at 10:01.
It will be a teeeerible night for the Tories, as Anthony King liked to say. The question is whether it's 100 - 170 seats terrible, or third place terrible.
'Now. George Osborne. Probable hung parliament with Labour the largest party. Why did the opinion polls all get it so spectacularly wrong?'
Where did you get that from? Osborne yesterday was suggesting the Conservatives weren't going anywhere and today he's working on ITV. Are you sure he isn't just wargaming options for tonight's ITV programme?
I was just daydreaming about what we might hear later tonight.
Do you realise I have just had to change my trousers?
I'm sure we've all done this already, but just in case.
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
If Reform has a breakthrough today, we will know about it pretty quickly. Our model predicts Reform 22% in Blyth and Ashington (declares ~11.30), 27% in Houghton and Sunderland South (~11.45) and 21% in Basildon and Billericay (~12.15).
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Will it be like the EU Ref when remainers "forgot to vote" ?
I remember referendum day. Mid afternoon there were loads of unfounded rumours that remain had won by a landslide - 60%+. Betting markets were going long on remain vote. Boris was spotted looking tired and emotional on the tube.
I voted, of course, but I remember settling in to watch the coverage with a very comfortable feeling that it would be fine. After all that's what had happened with the Sindyref. And I knew virtually nobody who had voted leave.
Oh God, more fashbacks are not what I needed today.
See William Hill offering50-1 Lib Dems 30 or under. I think that is a good bet.
Now into 14/1 at Hills but still 66/1 at Bet365 who have the next bands up at 31-35 at 33/1 and 36-40 16/1 for all you LD-sceptics. Arguably you are better off on the spreads for this sort of bet unless you are sure which narrow bands you are targeting.
'Now. George Osborne. Probable hung parliament with Labour the largest party. Why did the opinion polls all get it so spectacularly wrong?'
Where did you get that from? Osborne yesterday was suggesting the Conservatives weren't going anywhere and today he's working on ITV. Are you sure he isn't just wargaming options for tonight's ITV programme?
I was just daydreaming about what we might hear later tonight.
I could do without all these jokes and imagined scenarios!!!! You sent me scurrying off to Osborne’s twitter feed to check
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Will it be like the EU Ref when remainers "forgot to vote" ?
I remember referendum day. Mid afternoon there were loads of unfounded rumours that remain had won by a landslide - 60%+. Betting markets were going long on remain vote. Boris was spotted looking tired and emotional on the tube.
I voted, of course, but I remember settling in to watch the coverage with a very comfortable feeling that it would be fine. After all that's what had happened with the Sindyref. And I knew virtually nobody who had voted leave.
Oh God, more fashbacks are not what I needed today.
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
Constitutionally, but in reality - no we don't. And, if anything, PR will decrease the power of parties - because it will force parties to split up and work with each other, it will mean governments can't take huge swathes of the country for granted because geographically it will always vote one way or the other. The idea of a representative for a single geographic area when that individual representative likely gets less than 40% of the vote is silly. The system we have was designed specifically to be less democratic, not more. If you want less hegemonic powerful political parties the only way to do that is to get rid of FPTP - because that is what has been propping them up.
Nope, it will have exactly the opposite effect. If you are legally voting for a party rather than a candidate then the party 'owns' that seat for the duration and can pressure the MP to conform.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
Yes, because there is currently no system that parties use to make their MPs conform now... And sure - making whipping and such verboten would be great; but that is much less likely to happen then voting reform. Currently the parties have a stranglehold on every MP within the system we have - why do you keeping that system will help?
Without FPTP, do you think John McDonnell and Keir Starmer would be in the same party? That David Cameron and Rees Mogg would be? I don't...
Richard appears to favour a system of democracy which would require someone like him as dictator to enforce the rules he suggests. They're just not realistic.
The reason I made the U.S. comparison is they set up an entire constitution designed to inhibit the influence of 'faction' (ie parties). Something on which most of the framers agreed.
In that respect it was a miserable failure.
On the other hand the German constitution, or Basic Law, was written with the overriding aim of hindering the rise of another dictator. And it enshrines the role of political parties Article 21 begins:
"Political parties shall participate in the formation of the political will of the people. They may be freely established. Their internal organisation must conform to democratic principles."
More here (in English) including a legal definition of a political party:
I think STV is a good fit for the UK, it's surprising it hasn't been adopted in more countries. But every system has its pros and cons.
I doubt whether there is a democracy anywhere that doesn't have political parties.
When our local town council was first established, there were hopes that it would be filled with independents. Fat chance. While a couple of independents were elected at the beginning, it quickly became another party political forum.
I'm sure we've all done this already, but just in case.
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Will it be like the EU Ref when remainers "forgot to vote" ?
I remember referendum day. Mid afternoon there were loads of unfounded rumours that remain had won by a landslide - 60%+. Betting markets were going long on remain vote. Boris was spotted looking tired and emotional on the tube.
I voted, of course, but I remember settling in to watch the coverage with a very comfortable feeling that it would be fine. After all that's what had happened with the Sindyref. And I knew virtually nobody who had voted leave.
Oh God, more fashbacks are not what I needed today.
Boris was probably looking like that because he thought leave was going to win
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
I find it interesting that over on Guido after all the Reform ramping and salivating the members of that team are predicting 2-3 seats for Reform and 124-148 for the Tories, which is higher than many others.
Guido may be right in that similar way to Leon: pinning the tail on the donkey you’re bound to get the right spot 1 time in 100.
But, let’s be frank, Guido is so full of shit that I wouldn’t take the slightest notice of anything he posts today
Hi Heathener
My best wishes to you.
Today is your day. You have been forecasting what is coming long before it was trendy by following the polls.
Who does low turnover favour? In theory the blue rinse brigade always turn out - but will they this time?
I would expect low turnout to be bad for reform.
Low turnout when, though?
Rule of thumb is those who vote early morning and after 6-ish are working age people who are less likely to be Tory. Those going 10-3 sort of time are oldies and more likely to be Tory. So I'm always encouraged by a brisk start and end, with slow going at lunchtime - and Tories no doubt feel the opposite. That varies from place to place of course, and is only a finger in the air.
On the national level and across the election as a whole, I don't think there's any real evidence that low turnout overall favours a particular party as a general rule. The highest turnout in (relatively) recent years was the Conservatives' famous win in 1992... but the lowest was their crushing defeat in 2001.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
I think it’s more in their own hands this time. But that does not mean “yes”, necessarily.
Poll administrators wanting some rationalisation of the law and some sensib le changes.
Hadn't realised the plug seems to have been pulled on dual nationals (depending on the details that come out).
I'm a dual national and I got my vote. God I'd have been pissed if I hadn't!
I'd have thought we'd have heard before if it was a big issue. But it is something that needs to be looked at, especially as the explanation given was said to be 'system error'.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
On the absence of tellers:
The party I support had, for the first time in at least a quarter of a century, no tellers at our own polling station today. Because for all of that quarter-century till today, our seat was the only one in our District with the slightest chance we might win (though we practically always came a gallant second). But today, because of boundary changes, demographic shifts and the near-universal collapse in support for Tories, the District has three seats we might win, our winning likelihood is less here than in the other two - and if we don't win here, the Tories will still probably lose the seat to an anti-Tory candidate we could live with. .
Telling doesn't just need tellers (though our seat has about 80 polling stations): it needs a manned committee room and a full Get Out The Vote operation. We used to have enough activists in the District to support all that for our one prospect - but there just aren't enough to man three, and adjacent seats for at least a 50 mile radius share the same problem.
Any glance at the MRPs shows hundreds of other marginal seats (and often once-safe seats becoming three-way marginals) - which means a boom in demand for activists to man GOTV ops, in a world where there are lots of other things for the traditional GOTV demographics to do, at a time of year so many of them are away. And only a few weeks after we'd had to call on them all for our local elections.
Don't ascribe a lack of tellers to apathy. In our case, it's the result of more demand for tellers' work than any of us can remember.
I'm sure we've all done this already, but just in case.
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
That's got to be a big advantage to the Tories. Rishi's last ditch supermajority gambit looks like it is working. What a load of rubbish that he's going to lose his seat when Osborne is suggesting hung Parliament and SeanF on Con 330.
David Herdson replies that postal vote returns are highish.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Will it be like the EU Ref when remainers "forgot to vote" ?
I remember referendum day. Mid afternoon there were loads of unfounded rumours that remain had won by a landslide - 60%+. Betting markets were going long on remain vote. Boris was spotted looking tired and emotional on the tube.
I voted, of course, but I remember settling in to watch the coverage with a very comfortable feeling that it would be fine. After all that's what had happened with the Sindyref. And I knew virtually nobody who had voted leave.
Oh God, more fashbacks are not what I needed today.
Boris was probably looking like that because he thought leave was going to win
Or because his default state is dishevelled and possibly drunk.
I reckon turnout could be highest in the southwest. Lib Dems always have an excellent GOTV in their target seats and it's full of pensioner voting Tories too. I expect the NE to be dire with both Labour voters sitting it out and Reformers forgetting too.
My ward in Durham North (voted labour @Anabobazina, so, please lay off the ‘life long voter snark’) at lunchtime had had very few voters they were saying. In our close of 30 houses we were the first voters.
I'm sure we've all done this already, but just in case.
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Everything's more volatile, and everyone has higher expectations of the state, with lower average willingness to contribute. So yes, there is a path that is shorter (1 election), but many that aren't.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
I think it’s more in their own hands this time. But that does not mean “yes”, necessarily.
The Brand is so spectacularly trashed.... far worse than '97 esp among younger voters which does not bode well.
I reckon turnout could be highest in the southwest. Lib Dems always have an excellent GOTV in their target seats and it's full of pensioner voting Tories too. I expect the NE to be dire with both Labour voters sitting it out and Reformers forgetting too.
My ward in Durham North (voted labour @Anabobazina, so, please lay off the ‘life long voter snark’) at lunchtime had had very few voters they were saying. In our close of 30 houses we were the first voters.
That's one of the unknowns of this election, how many people will actually vote?
In this household all 4 of us have voted but I know my parents aren't going to bother and they usually do vote.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yes. It only needs to prove who you are, not that you are still OK to drive or go abroad, so expired licences and passports are acceptable provided the photo looks all right.
Tories could lose 4.5m votes as they did in 97. Or more.
Lots of Tories will sit on their hands.
I’m more interested in if labour lose votes compared to 2019 and lose share and how their vote efficiency improves moving from Corbyn to Starmer. Labours polling has been falling from low forties to late thirties over the last week.
A thumping labour majority on a smaller vote and smaller percentage vote than they got in 2019 would make for a good argument for PR.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
With Labour in power at Westminster, the Senedd, and likely Holyrood in due course, the excuse to blame Westminster is removed from these devolved nations and I really do believe they think Labour will turn on the taps and solve their finances
Similarly the unions, especially the doctors, nurses, and train drivers, but then with inflation at 2% above inflation wage increases in 2025 seem unlikely and that will be a fairly early test of Starmer and Reeves fiscal rules
I have no idea when or if the conservatives will return to power but just as Johnson had an 80 seat majority, so in 5 years that has vanished through terrible government and events outside any governments control including covid and war in Ukraine
I read an article earlier that said no government in power during covid has survived, or will survive, the fallout going forward
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
I think it’s more in their own hands this time. But that does not mean “yes”, necessarily.
The Brand is so spectacularly trashed.... far worse than '97 esp among younger voters which does not bode well.
Yes. It really is. This is why they might welcome a merger with reform. The “Conservative Party” is over
They need a new brand. New Conservative. National reform. Something
I reckon turnout could be highest in the southwest. Lib Dems always have an excellent GOTV in their target seats and it's full of pensioner voting Tories too. I expect the NE to be dire with both Labour voters sitting it out and Reformers forgetting too.
My ward in Durham North (voted labour @Anabobazina, so, please lay off the ‘life long voter snark’) at lunchtime had had very few voters they were saying. In our close of 30 houses we were the first voters.
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
I know parties tend to renege on changing the voting system when in power - but if the election results are as badly skewed as they look to be, with Labour potentially getting >60% of seats on 40%> of votes, and all the other parties getting much less representation than their vote share - will everyone but Labour end up supporting PR?
Apart from the smallest parties, the certain result of AV PR would be fragmentation of parties. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
But if the future looks like votes are going to be more distributed anyway (Reform and Greens not being squeezed enough) then we could start having very strange results under FPTP that don't help parties - it would all depend on vote efficiency. And, for factions within parties, PR could be helpful. New Labour types could jettison the much hated left wing and aim for a government with other centre right parties, and Reform and the Moggs of the Tories could merge without fear. I think the era of big tent political parties is over - and I think Farage, if Ref get 15+% of the vote and only a handful of MPs, will make a HUGE fuss on the issue; and when the right wing care about something the system is more willing to change, alas.
It shouldn't be about helping parties. We vote for individual constituency candidates and we should be doing everything we can to reduce the power of parties not incrrease it.
Constitutionally, but in reality - no we don't. And, if anything, PR will decrease the power of parties - because it will force parties to split up and work with each other, it will mean governments can't take huge swathes of the country for granted because geographically it will always vote one way or the other. The idea of a representative for a single geographic area when that individual representative likely gets less than 40% of the vote is silly. The system we have was designed specifically to be less democratic, not more. If you want less hegemonic powerful political parties the only way to do that is to get rid of FPTP - because that is what has been propping them up.
Nope, it will have exactly the opposite effect. If you are legally voting for a party rather than a candidate then the party 'owns' that seat for the duration and can pressure the MP to conform.
I would go much further and make every vote in Parliamentary free vote and make party bribery and threats illegal just as they are for anyone outside of Parliament seeeking to influence MPs.
Yes, because there is currently no system that parties use to make their MPs conform now... And sure - making whipping and such verboten would be great; but that is much less likely to happen then voting reform. Currently the parties have a stranglehold on every MP within the system we have - why do you keeping that system will help?
Without FPTP, do you think John McDonnell and Keir Starmer would be in the same party? That David Cameron and Rees Mogg would be? I don't...
Richard appears to favour a system of democracy which would require someone like him as dictator to enforce the rules he suggests. They're just not realistic.
The reason I made the U.S. comparison is they set up an entire constitution designed to inhibit the influence of 'faction' (ie parties). Something on which most of the framers agreed.
In that respect it was a miserable failure.
On the other hand the German constitution, or Basic Law, was written with the overriding aim of hindering the rise of another dictator. And it enshrines the role of political parties Article 21 begins:
"Political parties shall participate in the formation of the political will of the people. They may be freely established. Their internal organisation must conform to democratic principles."
More here (in English) including a legal definition of a political party:
I think STV is a good fit for the UK, it's surprising it hasn't been adopted in more countries. But every system has its pros and cons.
I doubt whether there is a democracy anywhere that doesn't have political parties.
When our local town council was first established, there were hopes that it would be filled with independents. Fat chance. While a couple of independents were elected at the beginning, it quickly became another party political forum.
Something else I think I would address. No party affiliations on anything to do with parish, town or district councils. County and equivalent councils fine but anything below that the whole process should be apolitical (or rather a-party political)
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Mrs C and I have just been to vote. Rode my electric scooter into the hall, elderly picture on bus pass acceptable. Mrs C still looks like hers, so no problem. Very straightforward, no pressure, people about but wouldn’t describe it as ‘brisk’. No tellers, no-one canvassing in the street outside. Since there’s a small (IMHO) chance that Priti Patel might lose, we both voted tactically for Labour. Otherwise it might well have been Green, as nothing from the LibDems.
If you get a "Tramper", as used for visitor loans at National Trust properties, they are specced for 1 in 4 hills and I think 30 degree crossfalls. Top Gear middle-aged Just WIlliams eat your heart out. The genuine (ie not Hoon or Hairdresser version) Land Rover of Mobility Scooters. I'll make it my piccie for the day, the first one of which is allowed to be non-election. This is fairly mild terrain:
Very useful for: You must make THAT public footpath with a gap in the fence not a style because a person riding THIS has a right to use it, and is capable of going over those HILLS.
Cost just under £10k, mind.
On the absence of tellers:
The party I support had, for the first time in at least a quarter of a century, no tellers at our own polling station today. Because for all of that quarter-century till today, our seat was the only one in our District with the slightest chance we might win (though we practically always came a gallant second). But today, because of boundary changes, demographic shifts and the near-universal collapse in support for Tories, the District has three seats we might win, our winning likelihood is less here than in the other two - and if we don't win here, the Tories will still probably lose the seat to an anti-Tory candidate we could live with. .
Telling doesn't just need tellers (though our seat has about 80 polling stations): it needs a manned committee room and a full Get Out The Vote operation. We used to have enough activists in the District to support all that for our one prospect - but there just aren't enough to man three, and adjacent seats for at least a 50 mile radius share the same problem.
Any glance at the MRPs shows hundreds of other marginal seats (and often once-safe seats becoming three-way marginals) - which means a boom in demand for activists to man GOTV ops, in a world where there are lots of other things for the traditional GOTV demographics to do, at a time of year so many of them are away. And only a few weeks after we'd had to call on them all for our local elections.
Don't ascribe a lack of tellers to apathy. In our case, it's the result of more demand for tellers' work than any of us can remember.
I haven't seen a teller for decades; and today was no different.
Rod Liddle could have the best result in the country for the SDP in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Their leader William Clouston is standing in Hexham but hardly anyone knows who he is.
Not sure folk knowing who Rod Liddle is will be a positive.
Well it explains to me what the 'SDP' is, so there's that.
They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
They're completely bonkers is what they are, I detected no underlying thread behind the policies in their manifesto (which was at least better designed than the others).
The biggest thing about them is they are really anti-immigrant.
Well they must disagree with Farage on quite a lot, otherwise they'd simply support him.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Tiktok is to young men what Facebook and WhatsApp is to the oldies
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
1 - Short queue of 4 or 5. Staff say it has been busy.
2 - ID checks not perfect - they accepted an old driving license I had taken by mistake. (I'm on 3 year medical licenses.)
3 - I'm calling Ashfield for Lee Anderson *, having seen his name easily at the top of the ballot paper, and his only competitor 4th out of 6 - buried in the noise. And have tweaked my Reform betting position slightly.
Anderson has maintained his position on the markets, and the Tories are invisible - which means that many of their votes will have gone his way, especially given that Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents is up before the Crown Court in 2025 on criminal charges and it is well known.
Anderson has also held on to his vote better than I hoped, and has gradually strengthened in the markets. He's now just under evens, with the Labour candidate just over.
* DYOR. My record is not stellar.
Out of date ID is expressly ok under the rules
That's interesting. Including a driving license that expired in 2022.
Yep. As long as the photo is you. I discovered today that Photo ID has been a requirement in NI for 20 years. Why the big hoohaa over here? Will those who are up in arms about proving who you are be as upset about children being given the vote?
You're not that NI SoS who did not know about the different parties, are you? Personation was once a big problem in Northern Ireland (vote early, vote often; although even there it was tied to registration fraud) but not on the mainland where photo ID is just a gerrymander. And I'm pretty sure the main reason for votes at 16 is also a perceived party advantage.
Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
Voting brisk in the Lib Dem heartland of St Albans.
Some WFH'ers voting at lunchtime. May be less of a evening peak?
I’ll be interested in the Reform vote share. I know Snorbs is considered very LD post Brexit with our Remain vote share, but Park Street and London Colney are very Leavey… will they go Reform, will they go Lab or Tory? I’m hoping we Greens can keep our deposit at least!
Here's a question, despite the almost certainly worse seat count than 1997 is the path back to power quicker for the Tories than it was last time round ?
Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which that will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
The young like reform and Farage so this is the counsel of a lunatic
Polling evidence, versus anecdote sample of one from the private members club class.
Comments
The sun will still rise in the east tomorrow. Set yourself some nice things to do over the next week or so and you will find that life still ticks on.
And I'm fine with polling cards being a thing that helps voters know where to go. That's all they're meant to be.
If the Tory oldsters are still all voting by post, but Labour voters think it's a foregone conclusion and don't bother, might be a long night.
Nonetheless, Labour to face its own Portillo moments is an interesting idea.
"Political parties shall participate in the formation of the political will of the people. They may be freely established. Their internal organisation must conform to democratic principles."
More here (in English) including a legal definition of a political party:
https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/parteien.html#2980f38e-f6a8-499a-bfe7-edd361fdf6ea
I think STV is a good fit for the UK, it's surprising it hasn't been adopted in more countries. But every system has its pros and cons.
Tories: "There's no reason to give us a kicking. We're already down and out."
Labour: "There's no reason to be afraid of us. We're not going to do anything."
Lib Dems: "There's no reason to laugh at us. We're not taking it seriously anyway."
Gamechanging...and pretty convincing
"Very interesting and concerning analysis from a US based pollster, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, who warns that there has been a significant undercounting of shy Tory voters and Reform to Tory defectors. It could indicate a big polling miss."
https://x.com/Menkvi/status/1808645357854658566
I was sitting in RHS cafe talking with my friend about the election, quietly I thought, when a couple of people joined in our convo and had a right go at Nigel Farage. I felt fairly safe in talking about Labour.
I did have a sense of coming change out and about today but that could be projection.
Interesting implications for people who might otherwise be forced to leave their homes or even communities.
Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
Edit - LOL very good.
Owen Winter
@OwenWntr
If Reform has a breakthrough today, we will know about it pretty quickly. Our model predicts Reform 22% in Blyth and Ashington (declares ~11.30), 27% in Houghton and Sunderland South (~11.45) and 21% in Basildon and Billericay (~12.15).
I voted, of course, but I remember settling in to watch the coverage with a very comfortable feeling that it would be fine. After all that's what had happened with the Sindyref. And I knew virtually nobody who had voted leave.
Oh God, more fashbacks are not what I needed today.
Forgive me but I think that is quite funny
Absolutely no need for any panic by anyone in the labour camp, not so sure about the conservatives or SNP
When our local town council was first established, there were hopes that it would be filled with independents. Fat chance. While a couple of independents were elected at the beginning, it quickly became another party political forum.
Poll administrators wanting some rationalisation of the law and some sensib le changes.
Hadn't realised the plug seems to have been pulled on dual nationals (depending on the details that come out).
My best wishes to you.
Today is your day. You have been forecasting what is coming long before it was trendy by following the polls.
Vindication will be yours I suspect.
Rule of thumb is those who vote early morning and after 6-ish are working age people who are less likely to be Tory. Those going 10-3 sort of time are oldies and more likely to be Tory. So I'm always encouraged by a brisk start and end, with slow going at lunchtime - and Tories no doubt feel the opposite. That varies from place to place of course, and is only a finger in the air.
On the national level and across the election as a whole, I don't think there's any real evidence that low turnout overall favours a particular party as a general rule. The highest turnout in (relatively) recent years was the Conservatives' famous win in 1992... but the lowest was their crushing defeat in 2001.
The party I support had, for the first time in at least a quarter of a century, no tellers at our own polling station today. Because for all of that quarter-century till today, our seat was the only one in our District with the slightest chance we might win (though we practically always came a gallant second). But today, because of boundary changes, demographic shifts and the near-universal collapse in support for Tories, the District has three seats we might win, our winning likelihood is less here than in the other two - and if we don't win here, the Tories will still probably lose the seat to an anti-Tory candidate we could live with. .
Telling doesn't just need tellers (though our seat has about 80 polling stations): it needs a manned committee room and a full Get Out The Vote operation. We used to have enough activists in the District to support all that for our one prospect - but there just aren't enough to man three, and adjacent seats for at least a 50 mile radius share the same problem.
Any glance at the MRPs shows hundreds of other marginal seats (and often once-safe seats becoming three-way marginals) - which means a boom in demand for activists to man GOTV ops, in a world where there are lots of other things for the traditional GOTV demographics to do, at a time of year so many of them are away. And only a few weeks after we'd had to call on them all for our local elections.
Don't ascribe a lack of tellers to apathy. In our case, it's the result of more demand for tellers' work than any of us can remember.
Some WFH'ers voting at lunchtime. May be less of a evening peak?
Also the club white is brilliant now
Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it
Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time
One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17
In this household all 4 of us have voted but I know my parents aren't going to bother and they usually do vote.
Voted for Chaos with Ed Miliband.
On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.
The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
I’m more interested in if labour lose votes compared to 2019 and lose share and how their vote efficiency improves moving from Corbyn to Starmer. Labours polling has been falling from low forties to late thirties over the last week.
A thumping labour majority on a smaller vote and smaller percentage vote than they got in 2019 would make for a good argument for PR.
Similarly the unions, especially the doctors, nurses, and train drivers, but then with inflation at 2% above inflation wage increases in 2025 seem unlikely and that will be a fairly early test of Starmer and Reeves fiscal rules
I have no idea when or if the conservatives will return to power but just as Johnson had an 80 seat majority, so in 5 years that has vanished through terrible government and events outside any governments control including covid and war in Ukraine
I read an article earlier that said no government in power during covid has survived, or will survive, the fallout going forward
They need a new brand. New Conservative. National reform. Something
I almost felt honour bound to help push them over the line.
Oddly my french daughter in law did vote by post as shes' now a UK citizen and used to live in London.
Reform have 30%. Tories? Nowhere
*Tactical in the sense of a bulwark against anti-Tory tactical voting and the disproportionately unrepresentative outcome it threatens.