I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
You guys have never set physical type, have you? Typeface is not font. 10 pt frutiger sans is a different font from 11 pt frutiger sans, but the same typeface.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
I think the Tories and SNP will win a few more seats than Survation suggests, given Survation has Labour higher than other pollsters. However I think Labour will still get over 400 seats and match 1997 landslide levels, helped by the split on the right under FPTP between Tories and Reform
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
As I haven’t posted any pictures today, here’s a picture I found on t’internet.
That Bailey bloke gets everywhere.
An aside. This is my first GE as candidate, and I've largely been able to build the strategy and the narrative as I see fit. I have a list of things we will do better next time, several things I won't talk about until its all over, and still a "pinch me" that I get to campaign somewhere as fabulous as ANME - and its my home.
But like all candidates there are highs and lows. I have had The Fear which Jarvis Cocker once sang about. And have buzzed my tits off being comfortable being uncomfortable. And had to work more than I would have liked because some idiot said "no election" then called it anyway.
I've finally started getting Conservative ads on Facebook. For the seat I'm currently in and my home seat. Reform ads gone.
Maybe they were saving up for a big push in the final 48 hours?
Too little too late, I think. Pretty hard to change the mood music now. If BoJo does turn up at a closing rally, it would also suggest the CCHQ Munchkins have decided they don't need the internship on their CV.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
Around here the LibDem slogan is "Demand Better", which is rather catchy.
That would make me think don't vote lib dem then
Dude, with you it's an automatic reflex:
Car driving down the street... don't vote LibDem
Lost my glasses again... don't vote LibDem
A pint of bitter... don't mind if I... don't vote LibDem
My dislike of the lib dems has solid roots, they campaigned in my local council area many years ago centred on not approving an incinerator project that the labour majority were planning on approving. They got elected....first week they green lighted the project despite their opposition being the reason they got the votes.
They will say whatever will get them votes and then do the opposite once they have them, the same happened when they actually got in national governement, they are mendacious janus faced poltroons and a pustulent buboe on the political landscape
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
You guys have never set physical type, have you? Typeface is not font. 10 pt frutiger sans is a different font from 11 pt frutiger sans, but the same typeface.
Finally, the font quiz round we've all been waiting for.
No sight more likely to win it for Labour. This is the man who spaffed his 80-seat majority on a sightseeing trip to Barnard Castle, and was evicted because he started a poll descent that turned into a doomloop.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
You guys have never set physical type, have you? Typeface is not font. 10 pt frutiger sans is a different font from 11 pt frutiger sans, but the same typeface.
Finally, the font quiz round we've all been waiting for.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
Around here the LibDem slogan is "Demand Better", which is rather catchy.
That would make me think don't vote lib dem then
Dude, with you it's an automatic reflex:
Car driving down the street... don't vote LibDem
Lost my glasses again... don't vote LibDem
A pint of bitter... don't mind if I... don't vote LibDem
My dislike of the lib dems has solid roots, they campaigned in my local council area many years ago centred on not approving an incinerator project that the labour majority were planning on approving. They got elected....first week they green lighted the project despite their opposition being the reason they got the votes.
They will say whatever will get them votes and then do the opposite once they have them, the same happened when they actually got in national governement, they are mendacious janus faced poltroons and a pustulent buboe on the political landscape
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Ooh, cycling: happy to report a coming of age type incident in my cycling career at the weekend: in a lonely field in Derbyshire at the weekend, I got a puncture. I didn't swear or despair, but got out the repair kit I've been carrying around with me for the past three years and, improbably, 20 minutes later had fixed it and was on my way. I know this is nothing to the experienced cyclist but it was very gratifying to go from "I know what to do in theory though I also know I am a mechanical klutz" to "gosh, I've actually done it."
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
You guys have never set physical type, have you? Typeface is not font. 10 pt frutiger sans is a different font from 11 pt frutiger sans, but the same typeface.
Finally, the font quiz round we've all been waiting for.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
Around here the LibDem slogan is "Demand Better", which is rather catchy.
That would make me think don't vote lib dem then
Dude, with you it's an automatic reflex:
Car driving down the street... don't vote LibDem
Lost my glasses again... don't vote LibDem
A pint of bitter... don't mind if I... don't vote LibDem
My dislike of the lib dems has solid roots, they campaigned in my local council area many years ago centred on not approving an incinerator project that the labour majority were planning on approving. They got elected....first week they green lighted the project despite their opposition being the reason they got the votes.
They will say whatever will get them votes and then do the opposite once they have them, the same happened when they actually got in national governement, they are mendacious janus faced poltroons and a pustulent buboe on the political landscape
...I was right, a Libdem definitely ran over your cat...
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
You guys have never set physical type, have you? Typeface is not font. 10 pt frutiger sans is a different font from 11 pt frutiger sans, but the same typeface.
Finally, the font quiz round we've all been waiting for.
I've finally started getting Conservative ads on Facebook. For the seat I'm currently in and my home seat. Reform ads gone.
Maybe they were saving up for a big push in the final 48 hours?
Too little too late, I think. Pretty hard to change the mood music now. If BoJo does turn up at a closing rally, it would also suggest the CCHQ Munchkins have decided they don't need the internship on their CV.
One thing’s for sure watching him on News @10 - he’s not on Ozempic.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
I'm sorry to say, but this is bad.
Firstly, aesthetics: it's too busy. Text all over the place, bad colour choices (here you're constrained somewhat but the red and green arrows are an unforced error). The weird triangle thing make it look like Con and SNP are squashing you. You need more negative space and less of a spilled paintbox palette. You'd have been better off having Lib Dem taking up the middle half of the page and desaturating the rival parties' colours. You've got their symbols and their names, that's more than enough. Quite often political ads that use images of rival politicians make their pictures greyscale. You need the eye to come to YOU. In this design, there is no real focal point. Maybe the tip of the triangle, but that's no use.
Secondly, the message is confusing. You've got the Scottish Conservatives starting on 365 seats? That's... disconcerting. It made me stop and think twice. Same with the Scottish Lib Dems. You ain't winning 61 seats, I guarantee it!
Lastly, the tactics. This might just scare the shit out of Tory voters and have them scurry back into the fold. I get the idea that you want to portray momentum, it's normally a very effective message But we're way past that. The risk is that they go back to shore up their ailing party instead of voting for you. Similar with the SNP, but less important since I'm guessing Tory voters are more fruitful switchers, so scaring a Tory voter back probably counts double compared to an SNP stay-at-home vote.
Sorry, but I think this is a bad effort. I would have strongly advised against doing it like this.
Feedback is a gift - appreciated. I'm not a graphic designer (can you tell) and its been done at speed to adapt yesterday's one to the new news. Anyway, is a LD chart not supposed to be comedic?
On the strategy / tactics I hear you, but politely disagree based on what we're hearing from voters - and from what the Tories and SNP are hearing. The key thing we need to do is to push the undecideds over the line. There is a *significant* pool of Con/SNP last time votes up for grabs. They say they need permission to jump, a reason to switch.
The need to go back because the Tory/SNP need them is the thing that Swinney and Sunak have been desperately pushing to little effect. My graphic won't be the thing to push them back. But the notion of the massive change election is resonating...
Oh I agree there are two huge pools of former Tory and SNP votes to be won.
As for LD charts being comedic: it's a fun trope for use pol nerds but probably not a hugely well known thing for the the hoi polloi. The charts seem effective because they're usually clear, bold, and striking. Don't cringe from a good bar chart and don't worry if it's "lightly sandpapered" as Boris Johnson would say.
Out canvassing on Sunday one resident, a newly eligible to vote Chinese woman, told me she had found the piles of Lib Dem leaflets arriving through her door really informative (she pointed to them all arranged on her hall table). She’d had 10x as many from us as anyone else.
And she really found the bar chart on the back useful to understand who the competitive parties are in Sutton and Cheam.
The voters who read all your leaflets, keep and file them in order, and can quote bits back to you, are the scary ones, for sure.
We couldn't have the plate of biscuits and tea at my Dad's cousin's until we had been shown the spelling and grammar errors on the Labour and Tory leaflets.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
Extraordinary, the most corrupt US President of all time looks like he’ll escape any punishment for his catalogue of crimes .
The Dems need to dump Biden and find a candidate who can stop Trump . The Dems need to understand this is now the last chance to save what’s left of US democracy .
Something needs to be done about the Supreme Court which is out of control.
No, the sentencing just moved to September 18th ie as the final campaign periods begins.
The Judge clearly despises Trump as seen by his trial comments but has to say he will consider if sentencing is still required etc for legal reasons post SC verdict but the fact he already has put the sentencing date in the diary suggests he intends to go ahead.
Given Trump's complete absence of remorse I would now say it is about a 50% chance Judge Merchan jails him, for at least 6 months
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
The 53 Tory seats with Survation MRP individual constituency forecasts:
Hertsmere, Ruislip, Beaconsfield, Droitwich, Richmond & Northallerton, Brentwood, Rutland, Sevenoaks, Chelsea & Fulham, Aberdeenshire North, Braintree, Berwickshire, NW Hants, Maldon, Witham, East Wiltshire, Broadland & Fakenham, Fareham & Waterlooville, Hamble Valley, Tonbridge, South Holland & the Deepings, Chelmsford, Gainsborough, Windsor, NE Cambs, NW Essex, Skipton & Ripon, Havant, Broxbourne, Boston & Skegness, Faversham & Mid Kent, Runnymede & Weybridge, West Suffolk, Dumfriesshire, Wokingham, NE Hants, Sleaford, Dumfries, East Surrey, Arundel, North Devon, New Forest East, SW Herts, Farnham & Bordon, North Herefordshire, Melksham & Devizes, Bury St Edmunds, North Cotswolds, West Aberdeenshire, Christchurch, New Forest West, South Shropshire, Sutton & Cheam
64 should be?
If I understand Survation rightly - very doubtful - I can only find two seats where they think the Tories have + 90% chance of winning. These are Richmond (Sunak's of course) 99% and Sevenoaks 94%. I have not counted but appear to be literally hundreds of 100% chance Labour seats.
The 53 Tory seats with Survation MRP individual constituency forecasts:
Hertsmere, Ruislip, Beaconsfield, Droitwich, Richmond & Northallerton, Brentwood, Rutland, Sevenoaks, Chelsea & Fulham, Aberdeenshire North, Braintree, Berwickshire, NW Hants, Maldon, Witham, East Wiltshire, Broadland & Fakenham, Fareham & Waterlooville, Hamble Valley, Tonbridge, South Holland & the Deepings, Chelmsford, Gainsborough, Windsor, NE Cambs, NW Essex, Skipton & Ripon, Havant, Broxbourne, Boston & Skegness, Faversham & Mid Kent, Runnymede & Weybridge, West Suffolk, Dumfriesshire, Wokingham, NE Hants, Sleaford, Dumfries, East Surrey, Arundel, North Devon, New Forest East, SW Herts, Farnham & Bordon, North Herefordshire, Melksham & Devizes, Bury St Edmunds, North Cotswolds, West Aberdeenshire, Christchurch, New Forest West, South Shropshire, Sutton & Cheam
64 should be?
No because one of the oddities of MRP studies seems to be that they come up with two seat figures, one overall and one by constituency, and the two aren't usually the same. You'd have to ask a statistician for a detailed explanation.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Personally I'd cut my foot off with a hacksaw before I used Strava, but this is my favourite use of it.
Used by a mountain biker and friends in the Lake District as part of the evidence to demonstrate 20 years of unopposed use of a route, which got it upgraded to a bridleway. They only did when the National Trust whacked a "no cycling" sign on it, and refused to engage.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
You guys have never set physical type, have you? Typeface is not font. 10 pt frutiger sans is a different font from 11 pt frutiger sans, but the same typeface.
Finally, the font quiz round we've all been waiting for.
Physical type surely is antique tech?
I see what you did there, proof that you are on good forme.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Ooh, cycling: happy to report a coming of age type incident in my cycling career at the weekend: in a lonely field in Derbyshire at the weekend, I got a puncture. I didn't swear or despair, but got out the repair kit I've been carrying around with me for the past three years and, improbably, 20 minutes later had fixed it and was on my way. I know this is nothing to the experienced cyclist but it was very gratifying to go from "I know what to do in theory though I also know I am a mechanical klutz" to "gosh, I've actually done it."
Mate, go tubeless with inserts. I've been down all sorts of gnarly, janky shite and not had a puncture in years. Worth every penny.
The 53 Tory seats with Survation MRP individual constituency forecasts:
Hertsmere, Ruislip, Beaconsfield, Droitwich, Richmond & Northallerton, Brentwood, Rutland, Sevenoaks, Chelsea & Fulham, Aberdeenshire North, Braintree, Berwickshire, NW Hants, Maldon, Witham, East Wiltshire, Broadland & Fakenham, Fareham & Waterlooville, Hamble Valley, Tonbridge, South Holland & the Deepings, Chelmsford, Gainsborough, Windsor, NE Cambs, NW Essex, Skipton & Ripon, Havant, Broxbourne, Boston & Skegness, Faversham & Mid Kent, Runnymede & Weybridge, West Suffolk, Dumfriesshire, Wokingham, NE Hants, Sleaford, Dumfries, East Surrey, Arundel, North Devon, New Forest East, SW Herts, Farnham & Bordon, North Herefordshire, Melksham & Devizes, Bury St Edmunds, North Cotswolds, West Aberdeenshire, Christchurch, New Forest West, South Shropshire, Sutton & Cheam
64 should be?
No because one of the oddities of MRP studies seems to be that they come up with two seat figures, one overall and one by constituency, and the two aren't usually the same. You'd have to ask a statistician for a detailed explanation.
Not really. And it isn't odd at all. Say there are 4 seats where Labour is the Party most likely to win, but with only a 50% chance in each. That's 4 by constituency, but only 2 overall.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Her numbers are not far off meaningless imho at this stage until she actually becomes nominee and takes on the fight.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
Ok but identity is always more important than ability when completing the ticket. Eg Pence for the evangelicals, LBJ for the South, Obama needed some white etc etc. It's American politics. It's not like recruiting a new chief actuary for an insurance company, it's about demographics and votes.
Yes, but as I said to TUD, what makes a good veep (the ability to deliver North Carolina, say) is very different from the ability to be a good president or even win a presidential election. Though as I also said - if you look at film of Bden from the Obama era - if only we had a candiate like that now.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
Biden is not more electable.
He was.
But Thursday finished that. He set up the whole thing. A very early debate to prove he was fit for the campaign and four more years. And he wasn't.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Her numbers are not far off meaningless imho at this stage until she actually becomes nominee and takes on the fight.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
Harris makes Hillary look electable, even I would vote for Trump over Harris
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Ooh, cycling: happy to report a coming of age type incident in my cycling career at the weekend: in a lonely field in Derbyshire at the weekend, I got a puncture. I didn't swear or despair, but got out the repair kit I've been carrying around with me for the past three years and, improbably, 20 minutes later had fixed it and was on my way. I know this is nothing to the experienced cyclist but it was very gratifying to go from "I know what to do in theory though I also know I am a mechanical klutz" to "gosh, I've actually done it."
Have you seen the videos from "Brooksey The Emtb Explorer" who is a man about our age from Derby who goes everywhere, records and edits his rides, and published GPS routes for every ride. https://www.youtube.com/@brooksey234
My other favourite is Peak Routes; Dead Read is a walker and other things, who lives on your side of the Peaks. https://peakroutesblog.wordpress.com/
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Reminds me of the fact that I had a walk through the Adams Morgan area of Washington DC in March this year in the hope of seeing some famous politicians, but didn't spot any.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Alot of Tories think the Reform vote will come rocking back, because it always does. Except I don’t see it this time. UKIP was about pressure on Europe. Reform is a howl of rage, and most of those backing it would rather not vote thsn vote for the current Tory offer. It’s not happening.
That is true and it's had its effect via the opinion polls but I take the converse view. UKIP was successful because it was for something. Reform is against everything and I'm not sure that that is a solid platform for electoral success. We have all noted what a body blow it would be for Nigel to end up as Clacton's MP having to field complaints about potholes every Friday afternoon, and we all have images of UKIP MEPs causing havoc in the European Parliament.
I just don't think that as many people as their showing in the polls will embrace that vision for a major political party.
And I still think bf prices of Reform below 13.99% are stonking good value to back and over 14% to lay. 16-17.99% voteshare is favourite ffs.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
That's the same hypothetical polling that said republicans would desert Trump in droves if he was convicted...
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Reminds me of the fact that I had a walk through the Adams Morgan area of Washington DC in March this year in the hope of seeing some famous politicians, but didn't spot any.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Personally I'd cut my foot off with a hacksaw before I used Strava, but this is my favourite use of it.
Used by a mountain biker and friends in the Lake District as part of the evidence to demonstrate 20 years of unopposed use of a route, which got it upgraded to a bridleway. They only did when the National Trust whacked a "no cycling" sign on it, and refused to engage.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
Nope, Ipsos tonight has it Biden 40% Trump 40% but Harris 42% Trump 43%.
Trump beats Whitmer too 41% to 36%, Trump beats Newsom too 42% to 39%.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
As I haven’t posted any pictures today, here’s a picture I found on t’internet.
That Bailey bloke gets everywhere.
An aside. This is my first GE as candidate, and I've largely been able to build the strategy and the narrative as I see fit. I have a list of things we will do better next time, several things I won't talk about until its all over, and still a "pinch me" that I get to campaign somewhere as fabulous as ANME - and its my home.
But like all candidates there are highs and lows. I have had The Fear which Jarvis Cocker once sang about. And have buzzed my tits off being comfortable being uncomfortable. And had to work more than I would have liked because some idiot said "no election" then called it anyway.
Will write a thread header on the other side.
How I Fochabered the opposition. Buckieing the trend. Beating the MacDuffers. Gamrie fighting my corner.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Trent Bridge (Rushcliffe) ? Would also be a tory hold in the Premier League with Nottingham Forest
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
Biden is not more electable.
He was.
But Thursday finished that. He set up the whole thing. A very early debate to prove he was fit for the campaign and four more years. And he wasn't.
End of.
Why can't the Democratic party see this?
The majority of Democrats can see that.
What they want, however, is for Joe Biden to voluntarily step down. They don't want a damaging Democrat civil war.
Whether that happens or not is another matter altogether. I suspect that Biden will only go after a month of extremely damaging bickering.
What are the rules about negative campaigning during the election? I don't mean one candidate setting out to slag off another candidate, but a group that has been specifically set up solely to oppose one candidate.
Today I got this rather bizarre leaflet through the door. Apparently I shouldn't vote for my Labour candidate because Gaza and also he's from down south.
It has the "promoted by" and so on stuff on it that you see on a normal electoral leaflet. Is this just operating as a "thing" not covered by any electoral laws at all (and hence the promoted by stuff irrelevant) or are there rules about this sort of thing, and if so what?
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
Maybe she’s got an unavoidable dentist appointment?
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Ooh, cycling: happy to report a coming of age type incident in my cycling career at the weekend: in a lonely field in Derbyshire at the weekend, I got a puncture. I didn't swear or despair, but got out the repair kit I've been carrying around with me for the past three years and, improbably, 20 minutes later had fixed it and was on my way. I know this is nothing to the experienced cyclist but it was very gratifying to go from "I know what to do in theory though I also know I am a mechanical klutz" to "gosh, I've actually done it."
Have you seen the videos from "Brooksey The Emtb Explorer" who is a man about our age from Derby who goes everywhere, records and edits his rides, and published GPS routes for every ride. https://www.youtube.com/@brooksey234
My other favourite is Peak Routes; Dead Read is a walker and other things, who lives on your side of the Peaks. https://peakroutesblog.wordpress.com/
Nice. My route was Kirk Ireton-Ashbourne-Tissington Trail-High Peak Trail -Wirksworth-Kirk Ireton. I inadvisedly cut the corner from Tissington to High Peak near Biggin along a very stony route (though marked as a cycle route - 568, from memory). Met a motorcylist at the top who told me he'd just come back from three weeks riding in the Sahara Desert and was now trying to persuade his wife to move out there with him. Came to grief on the way down. A dog walker and three cyclists offered help but by that time improbably I was nearly done.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Personally I'd cut my foot off with a hacksaw before I used Strava, but this is my favourite use of it.
Used by a mountain biker and friends in the Lake District as part of the evidence to demonstrate 20 years of unopposed use of a route, which got it upgraded to a bridleway. They only did when the National Trust whacked a "no cycling" sign on it, and refused to engage.
Strava is great just as a record of how many miles you have put on on which bike. And it is free if that's all you want.
Generally that genuinely doesn't interest me - I get a good enough idea anyway. A light service once a year does the job.
I'd tend to go more for something like Komoot or Ride with GPS.
What I would like is a more straighforward way of semi-auto uploading issues to something like Cycle Streets or Fill that Hole. When surveying a path there can be a lot of issue, and it swallows time.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
Maybe she’s got an unavoidable dentist appointment?
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Her numbers are not far off meaningless imho at this stage until she actually becomes nominee and takes on the fight.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
Harris makes Hillary look electable, even I would vote for Trump over Harris
You say "even you" as if you're some kind of centrist paragon, rather than, for instance, someone who's expressed admiration for General Franco.
In US tems though I am centrist, the last Republican I would have voted for for President would have been Bush in 2000 (albeit I would have voted GOP a few times for Congress)
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Bringing Boris back here makes no sense. The redwall is lost and hes toxic in the bluewall.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Indeed - Biden is now falling to her level.
Still no point in replacing the guy who will lose with the gal who will lose.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
That's the same hypothetical polling that said republicans would desert Trump in droves if he was convicted...
No it said some independents might and Trump is still doing no better with them than he did in 2020, just Biden worse
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
As I haven’t posted any pictures today, here’s a picture I found on t’internet.
That Bailey bloke gets everywhere.
An aside. This is my first GE as candidate, and I've largely been able to build the strategy and the narrative as I see fit. I have a list of things we will do better next time, several things I won't talk about until its all over, and still a "pinch me" that I get to campaign somewhere as fabulous as ANME - and its my home.
But like all candidates there are highs and lows. I have had The Fear which Jarvis Cocker once sang about. And have buzzed my tits off being comfortable being uncomfortable. And had to work more than I would have liked because some idiot said "no election" then called it anyway.
Will write a thread header on the other side.
How I Fochabered the opposition. Buckieing the trend. Beating the MacDuffers. Gamrie fighting my corner.
I had a long term slightly distant friend who ran a framing shop called the Fochabers Framer in Elgin - now retired for some years.
What are the rules about negative campaigning during the election? I don't mean one candidate setting out to slag off another candidate, but a group that has been specifically set up solely to oppose one candidate.
Today I got this rather bizarre leaflet through the door. Apparently I shouldn't vote for my Labour candidate because Gaza and also he's from down south.
It has the "promoted by" and so on stuff on it that you see on a normal electoral leaflet. Is this just operating as a "thing" not covered by any electoral laws at all (and hence the promoted by stuff irrelevant) or are there rules about this sort of thing, and if so what?
One of my prouder political achievements was: 1) Getting suspended by the Labour Party because a staffer complained that I called Laura Pidcock "Laura Pillock", followed by 2) Getting the Regional Director to lift my suspension, then 3) Smiling sweetly at the person who tried to get me out when I next saw her
Lets be honest. Who is likely to be behind an anti-Akehurst anti-Labour hierarchy anti-Israel leaflet? Its the Pillockite faction formerly of the Labour Party.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
As I haven’t posted any pictures today, here’s a picture I found on t’internet.
That Bailey bloke gets everywhere.
An aside. This is my first GE as candidate, and I've largely been able to build the strategy and the narrative as I see fit. I have a list of things we will do better next time, several things I won't talk about until its all over, and still a "pinch me" that I get to campaign somewhere as fabulous as ANME - and its my home.
But like all candidates there are highs and lows. I have had The Fear which Jarvis Cocker once sang about. And have buzzed my tits off being comfortable being uncomfortable. And had to work more than I would have liked because some idiot said "no election" then called it anyway.
Will write a thread header on the other side.
Has your election agent not explained to you that the candidate for an election is just a legal requirement?
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Bringing Boris back here makes no sense. The redwall is lost and hes toxic in the bluewall.
On tonight's Survation Sunak has lost the bluewall AND the redwall, so Boris might at least help him firm up the former (and to be fair to Boris in 2019 he won the bluewall too)
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Indeed - Biden is now falling to her level.
Still no point in replacing the guy who will lose with the gal who will lose.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
PICK A FONT ANY FONT BUT PICK ONE PLEASE
Absolutely not. This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
Anyway, only 2 fonts on display...
As I haven’t posted any pictures today, here’s a picture I found on t’internet.
That Bailey bloke gets everywhere.
An aside. This is my first GE as candidate, and I've largely been able to build the strategy and the narrative as I see fit. I have a list of things we will do better next time, several things I won't talk about until its all over, and still a "pinch me" that I get to campaign somewhere as fabulous as ANME - and its my home.
But like all candidates there are highs and lows. I have had The Fear which Jarvis Cocker once sang about. And have buzzed my tits off being comfortable being uncomfortable. And had to work more than I would have liked because some idiot said "no election" then called it anyway.
Will write a thread header on the other side.
How I Fochabered the opposition. Buckieing the trend. Beating the MacDuffers. Gamrie fighting my corner.
I don’t like this person - so he’s stupid I don’t like this poll - therefore it’s wrong I don’t want this to happen - so it won’t
It’s really quite a poor show
Also: Trump is awful - therefore it can't even be suggested that any Dem candidate is anything less than great.
Yes it’s really low grade thinking and it is oddly common on a supposedly educated website
People are complaining about a charge not made. Least not by me. There are lots on here who have pointed out Joe Biden's palpable negatives. But only a small select band merit the description PBTrumpers. For that you need to be someone who will be rooting for him to win in November. There's half a dozen of these. The Dirty Half Dozen. But it's good. We mustn't be an echo chamber.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
Nope, Ipsos tonight has it Biden 40% Trump 40% but Harris 42% Trump 43%.
Trump beats Whitmer too 41% to 36%, Trump beats Newsom too 42% to 39%.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Indeed - Biden is now falling to her level.
Still no point in replacing the guy who will lose with the gal who will lose.
I think Biden will continue to get worse.
It's inevitable, and the rate of decline is more likely to accelerate than slow down.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Trent Bridge (Rushcliffe) ?
Oh okay. Surprising to me then.
Nottingham is like that - one side of Trent Bridge (ie Nottingham South ) is as red as you can get outside Liverpool maybe and the other side is nice middle class Rushcliffe which has the cricket ground and also Nottingham Forest
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Trent Bridge (Rushcliffe) ?
Oh okay. Surprising to me then.
Perhaps Nottingham Forest may also be the only Premier League club with a Tory MP too, then? Fulham and Chelsea possibles. As are Bournemouth?
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would not have called an election on the 4th of July. His PPB channeling Love Actually is still one of the best ever screened. He would have found a way to say sorry for all the fuckups, made people feel sorry they questioned him, and still made it feel like a vote for him is a vote for us.
What pity that the lying chancer couldn't hold it together when it was needed...
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
Except of course he'd have been recalled and lost his seat in Uxbridge, if he hadn't resigned first. Minor detail.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Her numbers are not far off meaningless imho at this stage until she actually becomes nominee and takes on the fight.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
Harris makes Hillary look electable, even I would vote for Trump over Harris
You say "even you" as if you're some kind of centrist paragon, rather than, for instance, someone who's expressed admiration for General Franco.
Even General Franco refused to formally join the Axis.
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/02/tories-in-no-position-to-attack-farage/
Surely even the Conservatives can’t forgive this 36 hours before the polls open?
You'd feature in the Telegraph as doing 763 mph.
An aside. This is my first GE as candidate, and I've largely been able to build the strategy and the narrative as I see fit. I have a list of things we will do better next time, several things I won't talk about until its all over, and still a "pinch me" that I get to campaign somewhere as fabulous as ANME - and its my home.
But like all candidates there are highs and lows. I have had The Fear which Jarvis Cocker once sang about. And have buzzed my tits off being comfortable being uncomfortable. And had to work more than I would have liked because some idiot said "no election" then called it anyway.
Will write a thread header on the other side.
I'm rarely not disappointed.
They will say whatever will get them votes and then do the opposite once they have them, the same happened when they actually got in national governement, they are mendacious janus faced poltroons and a pustulent buboe on the political landscape
No sight more likely to win it for Labour. This is the man who spaffed his 80-seat majority on a sightseeing trip to Barnard Castle, and was evicted because he started a poll descent that turned into a doomloop.
I know this is nothing to the experienced cyclist but it was very gratifying to go from "I know what to do in theory though I also know I am a mechanical klutz" to "gosh, I've actually done it."
It was the one inviolable rule.
The Judge clearly despises Trump as seen by his trial comments but has to say he will consider if sentencing is still required etc for legal reasons post SC verdict but the fact he already has put the sentencing date in the diary suggests he intends to go ahead.
Given Trump's complete absence of remorse I would now say it is about a 50% chance Judge Merchan jails him, for at least 6 months
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Used by a mountain biker and friends in the Lake District as part of the evidence to demonstrate 20 years of unopposed use of a route, which got it upgraded to a bridleway. They only did when the National Trust whacked a "no cycling" sign on it, and refused to engage.
It's a really interesting account:
https://www.cyclinguk.org/blog/success-lake-district-mountain-bikers-new-bridleway-walla-crag
And it isn't odd at all.
Say there are 4 seats where Labour is the Party most likely to win, but with only a 50% chance in each. That's 4 by constituency, but only 2 overall.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
Though as I also said - if you look at film of Bden from the Obama era - if only we had a candiate like that now.
He was.
But Thursday finished that. He set up the whole thing. A very early debate to prove he was fit for the campaign and four more years. And he wasn't.
End of.
Why can't the Democratic party see this?
https://www.youtube.com/@brooksey234
My other favourite is Peak Routes; Dead Read is a walker and other things, who lives on your side of the Peaks.
https://peakroutesblog.wordpress.com/
Trump beats Whitmer too 41% to 36%, Trump beats Newsom too 42% to 39%.
However there is one candidate who does better than Biden.......Michelle Obama beats Trump 50% to 39%
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/
gabyhinsliff
@gabyhinsliff
·
39m
who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
👀
@Savanta_UK’s final Scotland-only Westminster voting intention will be published in tomorrow’s @TheScotsman
.
Johnson: "I want to be clear that I was glad when the PM asked me for help"
Quietly skewering Sunak.
Subtle class from Boris.
What they want, however, is for Joe Biden to voluntarily step down. They don't want a damaging Democrat civil war.
Whether that happens or not is another matter altogether. I suspect that Biden will only go after a month of extremely damaging bickering.
Endorsements coming thick and fast now.
Today I got this rather bizarre leaflet through the door. Apparently I shouldn't vote for my Labour candidate because Gaza and also he's from down south.
It has the "promoted by" and so on stuff on it that you see on a normal electoral leaflet. Is this just operating as a "thing" not covered by any electoral laws at all (and hence the promoted by stuff irrelevant) or are there rules about this sort of thing, and if so what?
My route was Kirk Ireton-Ashbourne-Tissington Trail-High Peak Trail -Wirksworth-Kirk Ireton. I inadvisedly cut the corner from Tissington to High Peak near Biggin along a very stony route (though marked as a cycle route - 568, from memory). Met a motorcylist at the top who told me he'd just come back from three weeks riding in the Sahara Desert and was now trying to persuade his wife to move out there with him. Came to grief on the way down. A dog walker and three cyclists offered help but by that time improbably I was nearly done.
I'd tend to go more for something like Komoot or Ride with GPS.
What I would like is a more straighforward way of semi-auto uploading issues to something like Cycle Streets or Fill that Hole. When surveying a path there can be a lot of issue, and it swallows time.
I, for one, welcome our new dustbin overlords.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
https://x.com/MarkHertling/status/1807909716175057003
As a former military guy, I’m trying to figure out how a commander can refuse an illegal order from someone who is issuing it as an official act…
.. For those answering “it’s easy, follow ur oath & don’t obey illegal orders,” I’d respond “yes, that is the correct response.”
The question is a hypothetical: what are implications AFTER the order is given by someone not bound by rule of law & it’s refused? What’s next?
Fuck me, Wurzel Gummidge has let himself go and hit the sauce pretty hard. Sad to see.
Still no point in replacing the guy who will lose with the gal who will lose.
1) Getting suspended by the Labour Party because a staffer complained that I called Laura Pidcock "Laura Pillock", followed by
2) Getting the Regional Director to lift my suspension, then
3) Smiling sweetly at the person who tried to get me out when I next saw her
Lets be honest. Who is likely to be behind an anti-Akehurst anti-Labour hierarchy anti-Israel leaflet? Its the Pillockite faction formerly of the Labour Party.
Trump wins, total bloody catastrophe.
Biden wins, Trump contests it, MAGA loonies do all kinds of crazy stuff, and Biden plainly isn't fit.
The Biden replacement wins, probably the same as above and people also question the legitmacy of the replacement.
There doesn't appear to be a good outcome left, just a range of bad alternatives.
Fulham and Chelsea possibles. As are Bournemouth?
What pity that the lying chancer couldn't hold it together when it was needed...