gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
Except of course he'd have been recalled and lost his seat in Uxbridge, if he hadn't resigned first. Minor detail.
This is a fantasy. Do you really think the sitting PM would have been forced out of parliament?
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
Except of course he'd have been recalled and lost his seat in Uxbridge, if he hadn't resigned first. Minor detail.
And the fact he had enough support to have challenged Sunak and won after Truss. But he bottled. Which rather belies his political genius status.
.. For those answering “it’s easy, follow ur oath & don’t obey illegal orders,” I’d respond “yes, that is the correct response.”
The question is a hypothetical: what are implications AFTER the order is given by someone not bound by rule of law & it’s refused? What’s next?
Has anyone ever refused an order to, in the words of Hillary Clinton, "drone this guy"?
IIUC the status quo until yesterday was that US presidents were able to legally drone-strike foreign nationals outside US territory. So a hypothetical President Hillary Clinton could tell the military to kill Assange on his way to Belmarsh, but she couldn't legally target Justice Roberts or Monica Lewinsky.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Indeed - Biden is now falling to her level.
Still no point in replacing the guy who will lose with the gal who will lose.
I think Biden will continue to get worse.
“On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
Of course he will. The question is how much the decline exponentiates in the next 6 weeks/4 months.
Fuck me, Wurzel Gummidge has let himself go and hit the sauce pretty hard. Sad to see.
Shakespeare comes to mind…
We must not make a scarecrow of the law, Setting it up to fear the birds of prey, And let it keep one shape, till custom make it Their perch and not their terror.
I cannot help but think this is a mistake. Boris is no longer the terror that the Tories believe he to be.
.. For those answering “it’s easy, follow ur oath & don’t obey illegal orders,” I’d respond “yes, that is the correct response.”
The question is a hypothetical: what are implications AFTER the order is given by someone not bound by rule of law & it’s refused? What’s next?
Whatever happens on Nov 5th it now looks like a crisis is all but certain.
Trump wins, total bloody catastrophe.
Biden wins, Trump contests it, MAGA loonies do all kinds of crazy stuff, and Biden plainly isn't fit.
The Biden replacement wins, probably the same as above and people also question the legitmacy of the replacement.
There doesn't appear to be a good outcome left, just a range of bad alternatives.
It's becoming possible that Trump will win in a landslide, which might actually be the best outcome if you're thinking in terms of avoiding political instability.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
That is a curious definition of 'getting better'. "Not getting worse as quickly" is another possible phrasing.
It was put to me by a noted, and super left wing economist, that he saw why Rishi called the election when he did - precisely because some of the economic aggregates were ticking up. Interest rates was the big one that didn't improve/signal better at that particular time, but they have since.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
Most of the folk I talk to are more on the "A year or two ago I could afford X. Now I can't." I'm not sure showing them a graph of economic aggregates ticking up would make them think "w00t!". Most of them can only dream of even getting a mortgage so just have to hope their rent doesn't go up so much they have to cut back on food.
Fair enough. What bit of the economy do they think the Cons have mismanaged such that things are more expensive.
I don't think they especially give thought to bits of the economy. "Voted for X, 4-5 years later I feel poorer, won't vote for X this time". X might be Cons, Labour, Reform, SNP, LibDem, ....
@RobDotHutton In an unfortunate oversight, Johnson forgot the page in his speech praising Rishi Sunak.
Johnson's campaign speech? He came to "support" Rishi, but he has spent his entire speech blowing his own trumpet and man-alive is it bollocks? He is calling Starmer a Putinista. Other than that I think he might be pissed.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
I’m sad at the decline in outground cricket. Hampshire used to play at the united services ground in Portsmouth and Dean Park in Bournemouth. I saw Somerset at Weston Super Mare. But I think it’s less common now, at least for the championship games.
.. For those answering “it’s easy, follow ur oath & don’t obey illegal orders,” I’d respond “yes, that is the correct response.”
The question is a hypothetical: what are implications AFTER the order is given by someone not bound by rule of law & it’s refused? What’s next?
Whatever happens on Nov 5th it now looks like a crisis is all but certain.
Trump wins, total bloody catastrophe.
Biden wins, Trump contests it, MAGA loonies do all kinds of crazy stuff, and Biden plainly isn't fit.
The Biden replacement wins, probably the same as above and people also question the legitmacy of the replacement.
There doesn't appear to be a good outcome left, just a range of bad alternatives.
What if Trump dies?
Obviously that would stop him becoming President. But even if his family came out and said "it was a heart attack" I would fear that his crazy followers would still go nuts and claim a conspiracy.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
Except of course he'd have been recalled and lost his seat in Uxbridge, if he hadn't resigned first. Minor detail.
This is a fantasy. Do you really think the sitting PM would have been forced out of parliament?
Exactly and the Tories won the Uxbridge by election.
If Sunak land Hunt lose by a landslide Boris will be the Prince across the Water for many Tories and if Trump comes back after losing office in 2020 Boris may well think, why not me too? Especially if the Starmer government loses popularity but the LOTO is a dud.
Churchill came back after losing office of course too and is his hero
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Her numbers are not far off meaningless imho at this stage until she actually becomes nominee and takes on the fight.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
Harris makes Hillary look electable, even I would vote for Trump over Harris
I would vote for the shit my cat just did over Trump. I can't think of any Democrat politician I wouldn't pick over Trump. I mean, even someone like Al Franken or Corinne Brown aren't as bad as Trump. Franken admitted to sexual misconduct, but he didn't also commit fraud. Brown committed fraud, but didn't also commit sexual misconduct. Trump did both, and tried to overthrow the election result. Maybe you could make a case that Jesse Bright was worse (expelled from the Senate for treason in 1861).
What are the rules about negative campaigning during the election? I don't mean one candidate setting out to slag off another candidate, but a group that has been specifically set up solely to oppose one candidate.
Today I got this rather bizarre leaflet through the door. Apparently I shouldn't vote for my Labour candidate because Gaza and also he's from down south.
It has the "promoted by" and so on stuff on it that you see on a normal electoral leaflet. Is this just operating as a "thing" not covered by any electoral laws at all (and hence the promoted by stuff irrelevant) or are there rules about this sort of thing, and if so what?
One of my prouder political achievements was: 1) Getting suspended by the Labour Party because a staffer complained that I called Laura Pidcock "Laura Pillock", followed by 2) Getting the Regional Director to lift my suspension, then 3) Smiling sweetly at the person who tried to get me out when I next saw her
Lets be honest. Who is likely to be behind an anti-Akehurst anti-Labour hierarchy anti-Israel leaflet? Its the Pillockite faction formerly of the Labour Party.
I live in the town/village where she did as MP. Her former house now has a Bentley Continental outside. Just a random titbit.
@RobDotHutton In an unfortunate oversight, Johnson forgot the page in his speech praising Rishi Sunak.
Johnson's campaign speech? He came to "support" Rishi, but he has spent his entire speech blowing his own trumpet and man-alive is it bollocks? He is calling Starmer a Putinista. Other than that I think he might be pissed.
Must be galling to find that the general public no longer buys your cavalcade of crap. That the Tory faithful lapped it up speaks volumes of that Party's fitness to govern.
.. For those answering “it’s easy, follow ur oath & don’t obey illegal orders,” I’d respond “yes, that is the correct response.”
The question is a hypothetical: what are implications AFTER the order is given by someone not bound by rule of law & it’s refused? What’s next?
Whatever happens on Nov 5th it now looks like a crisis is all but certain.
Trump wins, total bloody catastrophe.
Biden wins, Trump contests it, MAGA loonies do all kinds of crazy stuff, and Biden plainly isn't fit.
The Biden replacement wins, probably the same as above and people also question the legitmacy of the replacement.
There doesn't appear to be a good outcome left, just a range of bad alternatives.
What if Trump dies?
Obviously that would stop him becoming President. But even if his family came out and said "it was a heart attack" I would fear that his crazy followers would still go nuts and claim a conspiracy.
Haven't you been paying attention to this timeline?
I think Sunak has lost the plot completely. Why on earth wheel out Johnson. Or did Johnson force this move so he could jet in from his holiday and pretend to give a damn about the party’s fortunes. As an aside he looks awful.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
Nope, Ipsos tonight has it Biden 40% Trump 40% but Harris 42% Trump 43%.
Trump beats Whitmer too 41% to 36%, Trump beats Newsom too 42% to 39%.
I think the movement towards Harris has been massive in the last 24 hours. I placed a good amount on her during the debate at 80-90 to win the next election and have now managed to trade out a chunk at 12. Have entirely moved out of Biden. So green everywhere and money only left on Trump and Harris.
Whereas for the last few days it seemed the Dems would rally around Biden - today is the day where it looks like the tide has truly turned. Lots of small telltale signs are there.
I also think that Biden will stay on until the end of his Presidency. For one thing, if Kamala ascends, the Republican House might not confirm her VP. Also - as long as Biden continues to look reasonably competent enough in office - they might actually be able to sell it as 'let Biden focus on the day to day job, and Kamala focus on the next 4 years.'
Do I think Kamala beats Trump? Not at the moment. But I do think she'll be the nominee now.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
I thought Chelmsford was still looking likely Tory, so the imaginatively named county ground (Essex)?
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would not have called an election on the 4th of July. His PPB channeling Love Actually is still one of the best ever screened. He would have found a way to say sorry for all the fuckups, made people feel sorry they questioned him, and still made it feel like a vote for him is a vote for us.
What pity that the lying chancer couldn't hold it together when it was needed...
He was a terrible PM. That he is a good campaigner shouldn’t be a reason to want him back.
I think many forget (not least the participants themselves) that these people are supposed to actually run the country for five years. The sizzle has eaten the steak.
Positioning herself as "unite the right" candidate, and hoping nobody will think too much about how she's a useless communicator who has repeatedly been sacked for disloyalty and dishonesty.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
I’m sad at the decline in outground cricket. Hampshire used to play at the united services ground in Portsmouth and Dean Park in Bournemouth. I saw Somerset at Weston Super Mare. But I think it’s less common now, at least for the championship games.
Apart from Worcestershire, of course, who are obliged to seek refuge at an outground every time it rains in mid-Wales.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
Nope, Ipsos tonight has it Biden 40% Trump 40% but Harris 42% Trump 43%.
Trump beats Whitmer too 41% to 36%, Trump beats Newsom too 42% to 39%.
The poll that everyone in the USA Politics sphere seems to be excitedly sharing online is this new NBC one that has Trump 49 Biden 43, but Trump 47 Harris 45.
Again, I also have doubts about Harris - but just pointing out that there seems to have been a sea change today in momentum towards her and away from Biden.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
The Rose Bowl is probably the Lib Dems best shot at gaining a main county ground - and a Test ground as well - and I think there's maybe a chance that the Lib Dems might take enough outgrounds to nose ahead of Labour in the outgrounds. They should fancy their chances at winning Cheltenham and Guildford for starters.
Not a team player. I think we can expect her to defect in the hope others follow and a forced merger happens with Reform. I suspect that will fail. Either way she is finished in front line politics
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
But, you already agree with Trump about Muslims, neo-Nazis, etc.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
That argument might (*might*) have made sense prior to the Supreme Court immunity ruling, but now no, now Trump is handed carte blanche the opportunity to do whatever he likes if he wins again. Biden might not be up to the job, but he wouldn't actively be using all the advantages given to him to subvert it.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
Except of course he'd have been recalled and lost his seat in Uxbridge, if he hadn't resigned first. Minor detail.
This is a fantasy. Do you really think the sitting PM would have been forced out of parliament?
Mind you I played that one poorly. They didn't trade. What did trade was the 1.42ish I had backed and the 1.50ish I laid to scurry away with my tail between my legs. Exact numbers available on request.
But it was looking eminently possible at point this campaign. It's still not a crazy idea now, at least according to the market.
Surely most prospective Dem voters now realise that if they vote for Biden they are getting Harris anyway and probably sooner rather than later.
But they don't do they, unless Biden actually DIES then maybe he will go on til the end, when he is actually vomiting blood and wearing a Donald Duck headpiece. After all, the Democrats have failed to move on Biden, yet, so why should they move in 2025 or 2027?
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 39m who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
It's the final humiliation of Sunak, having to beg the leader he knifed to come back and sprinkle a touch of glitter on his turd of a campaign.
And absolute delight for Boris, having Rishi beg him to come back to help campaign and try and save a few redwall seats and Leave voting marginals.
If Boris was still leader the Tories would get at least 200 seats on Thursday even if he would likely still have lost
Boris would have gone far enough right to eliminate the chance of a Farage comeback. He might have even given Farage the US ambassadorship to get him out of the country. And he wouldn't have called a GE now. He'd be going in 6 months. And you wouldn't bet against him winning the thing. That's Boris.
Except of course he'd have been recalled and lost his seat in Uxbridge, if he hadn't resigned first. Minor detail.
And the fact he had enough support to have challenged Sunak and won after Truss. But he bottled. Which rather belies his political genius status.
Despite what I said about Boris's electoral chances, had Bojo snatched the leadership back after Truss, Sunak's centrist backstabbers would have been briefing against his 2nd administration from the very beginning. The party would have been uncontrollable until they got their man in. In the long run, this is better. Let the centrist decline managers run the party right into the ground, and visit upon them the full electoral consequences of their policies.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
I think we can reasonably infer that some of Biden's decisions over the last few years might have been taken by Harris / his team / Jill - as has been the case for other Presidents in the past who have been incapacitated in some way.
So I doubt a 'demented Biden' would have his words listened to as you fear.
On the other side, I believe Trump's team would be much less able to stop him from doing certain things.
I think the movement towards Harris has been massive in the last 24 hours. I placed a good amount on her during the debate at 80-90 to win the next election and have now managed to trade out a chunk at 12. Have entirely moved out of Biden. So green everywhere and money only left on Trump and Harris.
Whereas for the last few days it seemed the Dems would rally around Biden - today is the day where it looks like the tide has truly turned. Lots of small telltale signs are there.
I also think that Biden will stay on until the end of his Presidency. For one thing, if Kamala ascends, the Republican House might not confirm her VP. Also - as long as Biden continues to look reasonably competent enough in office - they might actually be able to sell it as 'let Biden focus on the day to day job, and Kamala focus on the next 4 years.'
Why do they care whether they confirm her VP? She picks someone popular, they look bad blocking that person.
If I was a hypothetical Joe Biden looking to maximize the chances of a Dem win I don't think I'd pick Kamala but stay on as president. As far as we can tell from the polling she'd still be behind, so the Dems need to roll the dice. If the candidate will be Kamala, go on Joe Rogan, do a long interview, right after you make a really good point stage a heart attack, and give President Harris a chance to do some presidential things and set her own narrative.
.. For those answering “it’s easy, follow ur oath & don’t obey illegal orders,” I’d respond “yes, that is the correct response.”
The question is a hypothetical: what are implications AFTER the order is given by someone not bound by rule of law & it’s refused? What’s next?
Whatever happens on Nov 5th it now looks like a crisis is all but certain.
Trump wins, total bloody catastrophe.
Biden wins, Trump contests it, MAGA loonies do all kinds of crazy stuff, and Biden plainly isn't fit.
The Biden replacement wins, probably the same as above and people also question the legitmacy of the replacement.
There doesn't appear to be a good outcome left, just a range of bad alternatives.
Why would people "question the legitimacy of the replacement" if they won the general education ? And why would you take notice of anyone who did ?
Because to replace Biden now and get most of the party on board with it without doing some backroom dealing is going to be bloody tricky. It will likely require some sort of fix. Which will taint the candidate even if Democrats still back them over Trump in the election. You've already got 3 or more camps in the Democratic Party squabbling about what to do as it is. It would have been far easier if Biden had decided not to run last year.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
That argument might (*might*) have made sense prior to the Supreme Court immunity ruling, but now no, now Trump is handed carte blanche the opportunity to do whatever he likes if he wins again. Biden might not be up to the job, but he wouldn't actively be using all the advantages given to him to subvert it.
Post immunity, giving Trump the presidency would be like giving a bonobo a wanking machine.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
I’m sad at the decline in outground cricket. Hampshire used to play at the united services ground in Portsmouth and Dean Park in Bournemouth. I saw Somerset at Weston Super Mare. But I think it’s less common now, at least for the championship games.
Apart from Worcestershire, of course, who are obliged to seek refuge at an outground every time it rains in mid-Wales.
Which is a shame because Worcester is a rather nice ground.
I didn't do this. And it was for an entirely irrational reason financially. It's another one of those things where if I was managing someone else's money I would have taken some off the table.
But I know if I laid off some of my 46s I'd be guaranteed to regret it. If she became nominee, then I'd be seriously angry about having not let them ride. And if she doesn't, then I'd be angry about having not laid it all off.
And my anger would be in proportion to my PnL.
So I'm better off letting it ride.
If it had been other people's money I was managing objectively I'd fosho have taken quite a bit off around 10/11
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
That argument might (*might*) have made sense prior to the Supreme Court immunity ruling, but now no, now Trump is handed carte blanche the opportunity to do whatever he likes if he wins again. Biden might not be up to the job, but he wouldn't actively be using all the advantages given to him to subvert it.
Voting for Trump a second time is voting for the mob, essentially. It’s getting Pablo Escobar or Frank Costello into the White House.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
No he isn't. And here's why. Biden. Or the folks who control him have chosen sensible folk to run the day-to-day business of government. A comatose President. The country carries on. There's been a distinct lack of scandal, incompetence and impropiety. Trump chooses only on the basis of loyalty. Any old grifter, loon and psycho can get their mitts on the levers of influence proportionate to their willingness to rim him. Pop his belly button out and you're a billionaire, or on the Supreme Court. Or owt else that you're fixated on, however bizarre. And whatever your personal morality or competence.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
What does the US stand to gain from a president who "won't go to war'?
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Personally I'd cut my foot off with a hacksaw before I used Strava, but this is my favourite use of it.
Used by a mountain biker and friends in the Lake District as part of the evidence to demonstrate 20 years of unopposed use of a route, which got it upgraded to a bridleway. They only did when the National Trust whacked a "no cycling" sign on it, and refused to engage.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Her numbers are not far off meaningless imho at this stage until she actually becomes nominee and takes on the fight.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
Harris makes Hillary look electable, even I would vote for Trump over Harris
You say "even you" as if you're some kind of centrist paragon, rather than, for instance, someone who's expressed admiration for General Franco.
Even General Franco refused to formally join the Axis.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
I’m sad at the decline in outground cricket. Hampshire used to play at the united services ground in Portsmouth and Dean Park in Bournemouth. I saw Somerset at Weston Super Mare. But I think it’s less common now, at least for the championship games.
One problem is that there are fewer first-class games. 14 now for each team, which makes for only 7 home games each. Some of the counties have given up on outgrounds almost completely. For Durham, Northants, Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire I didn't identify any outgrounds currently in use for first-class cricket, though I know Durham sometimes still play one-day games up in Newcastle.
Other counties are much more committed to taking cricket around their county (or country in the case of Glamorgan).
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
What does the US stand to gain from a president who "won't go to war'?
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
What does the US stand to gain from a president who "won't go to war'?
Trump would go to war but only for the direct benefit of America rather than on behalf of a concept.
Johnson: "I want to be clear that I was glad when the PM asked me for help"
Quietly skewering Sunak.
Subtle class from Boris.
Subtle as a two hundred pound tub of lard.
So no change there then.
Seriously, what were the campaign people thinking? Even if Rishi had little to do with it, picking the worst option that annoys everyone is very on-brand.
It shouldn't have been that difficult for the Conservatives to move on from Boris: "great figure, great achievements, but he brought this disgrace on himself, shocked at how badly he behaved (take a deep breath of eau de oignon)...". The man resigned in disgrace, remember. After all, we're not America and our leaders can't just do whatever they damn well please. Thank goodness.
Surely most prospective Dem voters now realise that if they vote for Biden they are getting Harris anyway and probably sooner rather than later.
But they don't do they, unless Biden actually DIES then maybe he will go on til the end, when he is actually vomiting blood and wearing a Donald Duck headpiece. After all, the Democrats have failed to move on Biden, yet, so why should they move in 2025 or 2027?
I was assuming he will die quite soon or, au moins, be so completely fucked that there can be no obfuscation of it with spray tan and boosterism from Dr Jill.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
Latest poll
Both on 45% to Trump's 48%
Her numbers are not far off meaningless imho at this stage until she actually becomes nominee and takes on the fight.
Roll the fucking dice Dems, 'cos at the moment you are putting the red carpet out to Trump 2.0
Harris makes Hillary look electable, even I would vote for Trump over Harris
You say "even you" as if you're some kind of centrist paragon, rather than, for instance, someone who's expressed admiration for General Franco.
Even General Franco refused to formally join the Axis.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Biden should NOT stand down for Harris under any circumstances, even Biden in a coma is more electable than Harris in the rustbelt
The polling now has Harris ahead of Biden, so far has Biden fallen. It would now - officially - be a step up.
The poll that everyone in the USA Politics sphere seems to be excitedly sharing online is this new NBC one that has Trump 49 Biden 43, but Trump 47 Harris 45.
Again, I also have doubts about Harris - but just pointing out that there seems to have been a sea change today in momentum towards her and away from Biden.
Ipsos as I also posted has Biden doing better than Harris still and was taken yesterday and today, only Michelle Obama beats Biden v Trump
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
I’m sad at the decline in outground cricket. Hampshire used to play at the united services ground in Portsmouth and Dean Park in Bournemouth. I saw Somerset at Weston Super Mare. But I think it’s less common now, at least for the championship games.
One problem is that there are fewer first-class games. 14 now for each team, which makes for only 7 home games each. Some of the counties have given up on outgrounds almost completely. For Durham, Northants, Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire I didn't identify any outgrounds currently in use for first-class cricket, though I know Durham sometimes still play one-day games up in Newcastle.
Other counties are much more committed to taking cricket around their county (or country in the case of Glamorgan).
I don't follow cricket, but locally I've noticed the young S.Asian lads being out in the local park playing cricket come rain or shine. Mums and aunties providing (I suspect) a very decent lunch. So hope is not lost round here at least.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
I don’t like this person - so he’s stupid I don’t like this poll - therefore it’s wrong I don’t want this to happen - so it won’t
It’s really quite a poor show
Also: Trump is awful - therefore it can't even be suggested that any Dem candidate is anything less than great.
Yes it’s really low grade thinking and it is oddly common on a supposedly educated website
People are complaining about a charge not made. Least not by me. There are lots on here who have pointed out Joe Biden's palpable negatives. But only a small select band merit the description PBTrumpers. For that you need to be someone who will be rooting for him to win in November. There's half a dozen of these. The Dirty Half Dozen. But it's good. We mustn't be an echo chamber.
In all seriousness, are you OK?
I was gonna make some snarky riposte here, but.... I won't
You've been much more absent of late and your comments lack their usual cogency and eloquence. You appear distracted....
You're of an age when shit goes wrong (as am I) - either with oneself or with rellies and friends. And this is an especially compelling electon when I would expect you to be exultantly treading the PB stage, soliloquizing your triumph. Yet you don't
Whassup bro? If you assure me you are OK, I will happily go back to calling you a moron, etc
Surely most prospective Dem voters now realise that if they vote for Biden they are getting Harris anyway and probably sooner rather than later.
But they don't do they, unless Biden actually DIES then maybe he will go on til the end, when he is actually vomiting blood and wearing a Donald Duck headpiece. After all, the Democrats have failed to move on Biden, yet, so why should they move in 2025 or 2027?
45-50% of Americans would prefer a dead President Biden to a live President Trump now
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
I thought Chelmsford was still looking likely Tory, so the imaginatively named county ground (Essex)?
I have Chelmsford in my head as a possible Lib Dem gain. They were behind by only 46-37 in 2010, and there was a fairly chunky 14% UKIP vote in 2015, so I'm assuming that Reform will take a large number of votes this time, and the Lib Dems should be able to convince the 2019 Labour voters to vote tactically, because the boundaries haven't changed much (only losing the outlying village of Galleywood to the south).
The Reform phenomenon was predictable, avoidable and is entirely our own fault. This simple fact seems to be lost on my colleagues who have driven our party’s bus off the side of the cliff, while angrily blaming those of us who kept pointing at the obvious signs saying: “Cliff Edge Dead Ahead, Bad for Buses”.
If only the Conservative party had someone who knew about buses.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
Someone remarked earlier that Le Pen is more serious and ideological whereas Farage is a charlatan. For Le Pen the cause is more than the individual.
I think Braverman is a Le Pen. Which makes her simultaneously more and less scary than Farage.
She is a poor man's Priti Patel.
She's not as telegenic, but she's a better and more convincing speaker. You pays your money and you takes your choice.
Convincing in the sense of can barely do a coherent sentence? I've seen her speak a few times and she has been woeful. About as convincing as Liz Truss at her worst.
Surely most prospective Dem voters now realise that if they vote for Biden they are getting Harris anyway and probably sooner rather than later.
But they don't do they, unless Biden actually DIES then maybe he will go on til the end, when he is actually vomiting blood and wearing a Donald Duck headpiece. After all, the Democrats have failed to move on Biden, yet, so why should they move in 2025 or 2027?
45-50% of Americans would prefer a dead President Biden to a live President Trump now
The Reform phenomenon was predictable, avoidable and is entirely our own fault. This simple fact seems to be lost on my colleagues who have driven our party’s bus off the side of the cliff, while angrily blaming those of us who kept pointing at the obvious signs saying: “Cliff Edge Dead Ahead, Bad for Buses”.
If only the Conservative party had someone who knew about buses.
Well. They may soon do. As the Ministerial drivers won't last 60 hours.
.. For those answering “it’s easy, follow ur oath & don’t obey illegal orders,” I’d respond “yes, that is the correct response.”
The question is a hypothetical: what are implications AFTER the order is given by someone not bound by rule of law & it’s refused? What’s next?
Whatever happens on Nov 5th it now looks like a crisis is all but certain.
Trump wins, total bloody catastrophe.
Biden wins, Trump contests it, MAGA loonies do all kinds of crazy stuff, and Biden plainly isn't fit.
The Biden replacement wins, probably the same as above and people also question the legitmacy of the replacement.
There doesn't appear to be a good outcome left, just a range of bad alternatives.
Why would people "question the legitimacy of the replacement" if they won the general education ? And why would you take notice of anyone who did ?
Because to replace Biden now and get most of the party on board with it without doing some backroom dealing is going to be bloody tricky. It will likely require some sort of fix. Which will taint the candidate even if Democrats still back them over Trump in the election. You've already got 3 or more camps in the Democratic Party squabbling about what to do as it is. It would have been far easier if Biden had decided not to run last year.
That stuff might matter before the election but once you win a general election nobody will care how you got nominated. OK, a few disgruntled leftists might but they already think they woz robbed because all the moderates dropped out after SC instead of splitting the field so that Bernie Sanders could win.
I wonder if the Sunak ‘supermajority’ stuff is actually becoming counterproductive, particularly in the yellow wall. It is pretty clear that the Tory party is in disarray. The only thing they are able to oppose at the moment is each other. There will be a bloodbath after the election and the recriminations will be long, difficult and leave the party unable to function. I think plenty of people have reached the stage where they are saying so what if the Tories are reduced to 3rd, 4th or even 5th place in parliament. The Lib Dem’s, Reform, the SNP even the Greens are much more aligned around what they believe than the Tories seem to be, so what does the country have to lose by not electing a single Tory MP? In the end if the country has decided politics is not working for the people one of the two parties of government will need to be eliminated for a new future to grow. If I was Starmer that would be what worried me most. Because the Labour Party needs the Tories. If the Tories do end up ripping themselves apart labour will probably follow.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
Good work Password. Feel free to spam the thread with any amount of detail on this. I'm interested, at the very least.
I’m sad at the decline in outground cricket. Hampshire used to play at the united services ground in Portsmouth and Dean Park in Bournemouth. I saw Somerset at Weston Super Mare. But I think it’s less common now, at least for the championship games.
One problem is that there are fewer first-class games. 14 now for each team, which makes for only 7 home games each. Some of the counties have given up on outgrounds almost completely. For Durham, Northants, Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire I didn't identify any outgrounds currently in use for first-class cricket, though I know Durham sometimes still play one-day games up in Newcastle.
Other counties are much more committed to taking cricket around their county (or country in the case of Glamorgan).
I don't follow cricket, but locally I've noticed the young S.Asian lads being out in the local park playing cricket come rain or shine. Mums and aunties providing (I suspect) a very decent lunch. So hope is not lost round here at least.
Well one thing that I found interesting about trying to work out which constituency some of the outgrounds are in is that some areas still have several cricket grounds in a relatively small area. So I was encouraged by the number of cricket grounds still being actively used. It takes a fair bit of work to keep a cricket pitch.
Someone remarked earlier that Le Pen is more serious and ideological whereas Farage is a charlatan. For Le Pen the cause is more than the individual.
I think Braverman is a Le Pen. Which makes her simultaneously more and less scary than Farage.
She is a poor man's Priti Patel.
She's not as telegenic, but she's a better and more convincing speaker. You pays your money and you takes your choice.
Convincing in the sense of can barely do a coherent sentence? I've seen her speak a few times and she has been woeful. About as convincing as Liz Truss at her worst.
I wonder if the Sunak ‘supermajority’ stuff is actually becoming counterproductive, particularly in the yellow wall. It is pretty clear that the Tory party is in disarray. The only thing they are able to oppose at the moment is each other. There will be a bloodbath after the election and the recriminations will be long, difficult and leave the party unable to function. I think plenty of people have reached the stage where they are saying so what if the Tories are reduced to 3rd, 4th or even 5th place in parliament. The Lib Dem’s, Reform, the SNP even the Greens are much more aligned around what they believe than the Tories seem to be, so what does the country have to lose by not electing a single Tory MP? In the end if the country has decided politics is not working for the people one of the two parties of government will need to be eliminated for a new future to grow. If I was Starmer that would be what worried me most. Because the Labour Party needs the Tories. If the Tories do end up ripping themselves apart labour will probably follow.
Polls show 2019 Tories are somewhat wary of a Labour supermajority, Tories still polling 20-25% so will still win seats even in a Labour landslide and likely stay second
Surely most prospective Dem voters now realise that if they vote for Biden they are getting Harris anyway and probably sooner rather than later.
But they don't do they, unless Biden actually DIES then maybe he will go on til the end, when he is actually vomiting blood and wearing a Donald Duck headpiece. After all, the Democrats have failed to move on Biden, yet, so why should they move in 2025 or 2027?
45-50% of Americans would prefer a dead President Biden to a live President Trump now
I reckon it's more like 40-43% of Americans would prefer a dead-but-occasionally-revived-corpse-of-Biden over Trump
And that means Biden loses very very heavily, to Trump
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
Of the 18 main grounds for the first-class counties, 11 are in constituencies won by Labour at GE2019, and 7 won by the Conservatives. I have identified 24 outgrounds used reasonably recently (this millennium, and with a plausible* expectation of a future return) for first-class cricket, of which the Tories won 19, Labour 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2 at GE2019.
I'm not seeing any obvious prospects for Green or Reform gains of cricket grounds, but Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty of targets, and I'd think the Tories could be reasonably confident of four or five holds among the outgrounds, at least.
The most likely Tory hold among the main county cricket grounds may be a surprise to some. Anyone care to guess?
* As judged by me.
I thought Chelmsford was still looking likely Tory, so the imaginatively named county ground (Essex)?
I have Chelmsford in my head as a possible Lib Dem gain. They were behind by only 46-37 in 2010, and there was a fairly chunky 14% UKIP vote in 2015, so I'm assuming that Reform will take a large number of votes this time, and the Lib Dems should be able to convince the 2019 Labour voters to vote tactically, because the boundaries haven't changed much (only losing the outlying village of Galleywood to the south).
Ford could scrape home via a split opposition vote
It would actually be BETTER for America if Biden was DEAD, and president, and wheeled into meetings like the necrotically preserved corpse of Jeremy Bentham in UCL, still marked as "present" in University Senate meetings
Because then you would know the actual decisions are surely being made by wise and physically breathing advisors, you would be nervous who is choosing them, but the evidence of 2020-24 is that they are sane...
Much worse is the idea that Biden is alive but mad, and at any moment, as his dementia worsens, he might leap from his commode and say BOMB MALAYSIA and everyone will have to agree, and off we go to WW3
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
I wonder if the Sunak ‘supermajority’ stuff is actually becoming counterproductive, particularly in the yellow wall. It is pretty clear that the Tory party is in disarray. The only thing they are able to oppose at the moment is each other. There will be a bloodbath after the election and the recriminations will be long, difficult and leave the party unable to function. I think plenty of people have reached the stage where they are saying so what if the Tories are reduced to 3rd, 4th or even 5th place in parliament. The Lib Dem’s, Reform, the SNP even the Greens are much more aligned around what they believe than the Tories seem to be, so what does the country have to lose by not electing a single Tory MP? In the end if the country has decided politics is not working for the people one of the two parties of government will need to be eliminated for a new future to grow. If I was Starmer that would be what worried me most. Because the Labour Party needs the Tories. If the Tories do end up ripping themselves apart labour will probably follow.
Polls show 2019 Tories are somewhat wary of a Labour supermajority, Tories still polling 20-25% so will still win seats even in a Labour landslide and likely stay second
Bloody hell HY can we please not start normalising the totally meaningless American word “supermajority”? At least put inverted commas around it.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
36 is pretty bad, facing this clownshow of Tories and their terrible campaign
It would actually be BETTER for America if Biden was DEAD, and president, and wheeled into meetings like the necrotically preserved corpse of Jeremy Bentham in UCL, still marked as "present" in University Senate meetings
Because then you would know the actual decisions are surely being made by wise and physically breathing advisors, you would be nervous who is choosing them, but the evidence of 2020-24 is that they are sane...
Much worse is the idea that Biden is alive but mad, and at any moment, as his dementia worsens, he might leap from his commode and say BOMB MALAYSIA and everyone will have to agree, and off we go to WW3
It would probably have been best for America if the January 6th mob had killed Mike Pence, ensuring that Trump was impeached, and therefore could not stand for President.
Comments
But he bottled.
Which rather belies his political genius status.
Of course he will. The question is how much the decline exponentiates in the next 6 weeks/4 months.
We must not make a scarecrow of the law,
Setting it up to fear the birds of prey,
And let it keep one shape, till custom make it
Their perch and not their terror.
I cannot help but think this is a mistake. Boris is no longer the terror that the Tories believe he to be.
And why would you take notice of anyone who did ?
https://news.sky.com/story/election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-lib-dem-12593360
If Sunak land Hunt lose by a landslide Boris will be the Prince across the Water for many Tories and if Trump comes back after losing office in 2020 Boris may well think, why not me too? Especially if the Starmer government loses popularity but the LOTO is a dud.
Churchill came back after losing office of course too and is his hero
My party was happy to take money from Frank Hester. Remarks about hating black women were glossed over in the name of filling our coffers
SUELLA BRAVERMAN"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/02/tories-in-no-position-to-attack-farage/
That the Tory faithful lapped it up speaks volumes of that Party's fitness to govern.
Whereas for the last few days it seemed the Dems would rally around Biden - today is the day where it looks like the tide has truly turned. Lots of small telltale signs are there.
I also think that Biden will stay on until the end of his Presidency. For one thing, if Kamala ascends, the Republican House might not confirm her VP. Also - as long as Biden continues to look reasonably competent enough in office - they might actually be able to sell it as 'let Biden focus on the day to day job, and Kamala focus on the next 4 years.'
Do I think Kamala beats Trump? Not at the moment. But I do think she'll be the nominee now.
I think many forget (not least the participants themselves) that these people are supposed to actually run the country for five years. The sizzle has eaten the steak.
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
You'll be heartily sick of it soon enough.
The poll that everyone in the USA Politics sphere seems to be excitedly sharing online is this new NBC one that has Trump 49 Biden 43, but Trump 47 Harris 45.
Again, I also have doubts about Harris - but just pointing out that there seems to have been a sea change today in momentum towards her and away from Biden.
Mind you I played that one poorly. They didn't trade. What did trade was the 1.42ish I had backed and the 1.50ish I laid to scurry away with my tail between my legs. Exact numbers available on request.
But it was looking eminently possible at point this campaign. It's still not a crazy idea now, at least according to the market.
Its true.
Someone remarked earlier that Le Pen is more serious and ideological whereas Farage is a charlatan. For Le Pen the cause is more than the individual.
I think Braverman is a Le Pen. Which makes her simultaneously more and less scary than Farage.
So I doubt a 'demented Biden' would have his words listened to as you fear.
On the other side, I believe Trump's team would be much less able to stop him from doing certain things.
If I was a hypothetical Joe Biden looking to maximize the chances of a Dem win I don't think I'd pick Kamala but stay on as president. As far as we can tell from the polling she'd still be behind, so the Dems need to roll the dice. If the candidate will be Kamala, go on Joe Rogan, do a long interview, right after you make a really good point stage a heart attack, and give President Harris a chance to do some presidential things and set her own narrative.
@Samfr
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24m
If you were wondering, we're now at the red ink stage of mad panicked headlines.
But I know if I laid off some of my 46s I'd be guaranteed to regret it. If she became nominee, then I'd be seriously angry about having not let them ride. And if she doesn't, then I'd be angry about having not laid it all off.
And my anger would be in proportion to my PnL.
So I'm better off letting it ride.
If it had been other people's money I was managing objectively I'd fosho have taken quite a bit off around 10/11
And here's why.
Biden. Or the folks who control him have chosen sensible folk to run the day-to-day business of government. A comatose President. The country carries on. There's been a distinct lack of scandal, incompetence and impropiety.
Trump chooses only on the basis of loyalty. Any old grifter, loon and psycho can get their mitts on the levers of influence proportionate to their willingness to rim him.
Pop his belly button out and you're a billionaire, or on the Supreme Court. Or owt else that you're fixated on, however bizarre. And whatever your personal morality or competence.
(I may not be entirely impartial.)
Other counties are much more committed to taking cricket around their county (or country in the case of Glamorgan).
Seriously, what were the campaign people thinking? Even if Rishi had little to do with it, picking the worst option that annoys everyone is very on-brand.
It shouldn't have been that difficult for the Conservatives to move on from Boris: "great figure, great achievements, but he brought this disgrace on himself, shocked at how badly he behaved (take a deep breath of eau de oignon)...". The man resigned in disgrace, remember. After all, we're not America and our leaders can't just do whatever they damn well please. Thank goodness.
But so far, they can't do it.
Biden 40% Trump 40%
Harris 42% Trump 43%
M Obama 50% Trump 39%
Newsom 39% Trump 42%
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/
I was gonna make some snarky riposte here, but.... I won't
You've been much more absent of late and your comments lack their usual cogency and eloquence. You appear distracted....
You're of an age when shit goes wrong (as am I) - either with oneself or with rellies and friends. And this is an especially compelling electon when I would expect you to be exultantly treading the PB stage, soliloquizing your triumph. Yet you don't
Whassup bro? If you assure me you are OK, I will happily go back to calling you a moron, etc
If only the Conservative party had someone who knew about buses.
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
https://x.com/rncresearch/status/1736468129528602811
And that means Biden loses very very heavily, to Trump
Gotta hand it to him - he's bloody good at presentational politics a lot of the time.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 36% (-2)
CON: 21% (=)
RFM: 16% (=)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @VerianGroup, 28 Jun - 1 Jul.
Changes w/ 21-24 Jun.
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1808257792073257082?s=46
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
Because then you would know the actual decisions are surely being made by wise and physically breathing advisors, you would be nervous who is choosing them, but the evidence of 2020-24 is that they are sane...
Much worse is the idea that Biden is alive but mad, and at any moment, as his dementia worsens, he might leap from his commode and say BOMB MALAYSIA and everyone will have to agree, and off we go to WW3
And now?
I don't know how to feel.
A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen.
But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon.
But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted.
Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent?
I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling.
Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Disturbing, but true.