If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Alot of Tories think the Reform vote will come rocking back, because it always does. Except I don’t see it this time. UKIP was about pressure on Europe. Reform is a howl of rage, and most of those backing it would rather not vote thsn vote for the current Tory offer. It’s not happening.
It is what I love about the English language is the sheer number of words and phrases which means none of us know every word/phrase and it brings joy when we learn a new word/phrase.
Follow this lady and you won't regret it.
Word of the day is 'ultra-crepidate' (19th century): to comment at length on a subject you know virtually nothing about.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
I'm sorry to say, but this is bad.
Firstly, aesthetics: it's too busy. Text all over the place, bad colour choices (here you're constrained somewhat but the red and green arrows are an unforced error). The weird triangle thing make it look like Con and SNP are squashing you. You need more negative space and less of a spilled paintbox palette. You'd have been better off having Lib Dem taking up the middle half of the page and desaturating the rival parties' colours. You've got their symbols and their names, that's more than enough. Quite often political ads that use images of rival politicians make their pictures greyscale. You need the eye to come to YOU. In this design, there is no real focal point. Maybe the tip of the triangle, but that's no use.
Secondly, the message is confusing. You've got the Scottish Conservatives starting on 365 seats? That's... disconcerting. It made me stop and think twice. Same with the Scottish Lib Dems. You ain't winning 61 seats, I guarantee it!
Lastly, the tactics. This might just scare the shit out of Tory voters and have them scurry back into the fold. I get the idea that you want to portray momentum, it's normally a very effective message But we're way past that. The risk is that they go back to shore up their ailing party instead of voting for you. Similar with the SNP, but less important since I'm guessing Tory voters are more fruitful switchers, so scaring a Tory voter back probably counts double compared to an SNP stay-at-home vote.
Sorry, but I think this is a bad effort. I would have strongly advised against doing it like this.
Survation is showing the Greens taking West Worcestershire, but not Bristol Central, Waveney Valley or indeed North Herefordshire. That's... unexpected.
I've never seen 'utter bullshit' spelled that way before.
It is what I love about the English language is the sheer number of words and phrases which means none of us know every word/phrase and it brings joy when we learn a new word/phrase.
Follow this lady and you won't regret it.
Word of the day is 'ultra-crepidate' (19th century): to comment at length on a subject you know virtually nothing about.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Alot of Tories think the Reform vote will come rocking back, because it always does. Except I don’t see it this time. UKIP was about pressure on Europe. Reform is a howl of rage, and most of those backing it would rather not vote thsn vote for the current Tory offer. It’s not happening.
That is true and it's had its effect via the opinion polls but I take the converse view. UKIP was successful because it was for something. Reform is against everything and I'm not sure that that is a solid platform for electoral success. We have all noted what a body blow it would be for Nigel to end up as Clacton's MP having to field complaints about potholes every Friday afternoon, and we all have images of UKIP MEPs causing havoc in the European Parliament.
I just don't think that as many people as their showing in the polls will embrace that vision for a major political party.
Short comment on Lucy Letby trial now both trials are over and appeal ended and published today. The Court of Appeal judgement runs to 60 closely argued pages. There is one massively compelling fact about the trial. The defence didn't call any expert evidence at all. None. This will not be for want of trying. It is not relevant to the appeal, though the CA mentions the fact, but actually tells you all you need to know.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
I think that's nonsense really. There are so many missteps that aren't anything to do with Brexit that have caused the Tories demise. Boris doesn't party, the Tories were still polling fine. Then they pick Truss, who goes for mental approach out the gate and ratners Tory brand for at least doing economic management ok, then they go for Sunak, who is far worse than anybody expected.
Even now, he runs a half decent campaign from the start, Farage doesn't appear, the Tories probably get over 30%. Instead they went absolute mental bullshit stuff and Farage saw an opportunity.
But without Brexit, Johnson would never have got to the top. And the rest is history.
Plus, Brexit built them an unstable coalition that was never going to hang together, and drove a wedge between the Tories and their traditional educated, middle class, business-friendly base which, with luck, is about to lose them a shedload of seats in the Home Counties.
There is a lot of leaps there....I think it is true it has effected the Tory voter base etc, but I don't think you can go from 0 to 100 like that tweet. Its more complicated.
I also think we are seeing across Europe a fracturing of traditional voting coalitions. We are seeing ever bigger splits between rural and urban, the university educated and not. In the US, we have seen blue collar always voted Democrat union workers voting Trump, non-whites voting Trump etc.
Fair enough. But the whole EU issue is where the Tories stopped being pragmatic, and became ideological, putting their beliefs in front of ‘what works’. A compromise ‘Norway for now’ might have avoided this, but not the path actually taken. That and the associated ‘f*** business’ destroyed a large part of their USP.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Alot of Tories think the Reform vote will come rocking back, because it always does. Except I don’t see it this time. UKIP was about pressure on Europe. Reform is a howl of rage, and most of those backing it would rather not vote thsn vote for the current Tory offer. It’s not happening.
It’s already happening, as seen in multiple polls the last 2 days.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Perhaps Biden's just ordered Hunter to shoot Trump, Thomas and Alito.
Would make sense politically and would solve a great many problems constitutionally.
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
She seems ok-ish to me but apparently dumb as fuck
I don’t think Vice President is the right role for her. You need to either be a foil, or a fixer.
Harris is neither. She doesn’t do the casual, relaxy, pally, jokey stuff well - she comes across as forced and awkward. And the impression I get is that instead of letting her build her own power base and strength in the administration Biden has been satisfied to give her hospital-pass briefs and keep her at arms length.
However, as a senator she could be clear, sharp and incisive. There is a reason she was considered a rising star in the Democratic Party.
I happen to think she’d actually do OK as President. The danger is that Americans like their personable, folksy Presidents and they don’t really like the serious administrators (Hillary says hi).
But in opposition to Trump and a Supreme Court off the rails? I think she could take the fight to the GOP, which is what is needed and what Biden can’t offer now - he is too diminished, too feeble. America needs someone to stand up and put it all on the line. In that role, I think she might be quite effective.
It is what I love about the English language is the sheer number of words and phrases which means none of us know every word/phrase and it brings joy when we learn a new word/phrase.
Follow this lady and you won't regret it.
Word of the day is 'ultra-crepidate' (19th century): to comment at length on a subject you know virtually nothing about.
Whether the Survation Panel is from this date to that, is it that relevent. What is worrying is that it is sending a message today, just before polling that the Lib Dems are only 3 seats behind the Conservatives, probably two if you also phase in North Shropshire which appears to be going Lib Dem, This could, I say could all result in late switches in tight Con/Lib Dem marginal seats giving the Lib Dems the edge, particularly tactically from Labour.. But what do I know? We will all know on Friday morning unless there are a number of crucial recounts going into Friday afternoon. Whatever happens the result will still be a shocker and historic. It will be a question in GCE papers for decades to come. Is it still called GCE?
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
She's a good betting outcome for me too. Let's hope it happens.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Alot of Tories think the Reform vote will come rocking back, because it always does. Except I don’t see it this time. UKIP was about pressure on Europe. Reform is a howl of rage, and most of those backing it would rather not vote thsn vote for the current Tory offer. It’s not happening.
That is true and it's had its effect via the opinion polls but I take the converse view. UKIP was successful because it was for something. Reform is against everything and I'm not sure that that is a solid platform for electoral success. We have all noted what a body blow it would be for Nigel to end up as Clacton's MP having to field complaints about potholes every Friday afternoon, and we all have images of UKIP MEPs causing havoc in the European Parliament.
I just don't think that as many people as their showing in the polls will embrace that vision for a major political party.
And I still think bf prices of Reform below 13.99% are stonking good value to back and over 14% to lay. 16-17.99% voteshare is favourite ffs.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
I'm sorry to say, but this is bad.
Firstly, aesthetics: it's too busy. Text all over the place, bad colour choices (here you're constrained somewhat but the red and green arrows are an unforced error). The weird triangle thing make it look like Con and SNP are squashing you. You need more negative space and less of a spilled paintbox palette. You'd have been better off having Lib Dem taking up the middle half of the page and desaturating the rival parties' colours. You've got their symbols and their names, that's more than enough. Quite often political ads that use images of rival politicians make their pictures greyscale. You need the eye to come to YOU. In this design, there is no real focal point. Maybe the tip of the triangle, but that's no use.
Secondly, the message is confusing. You've got the Scottish Conservatives starting on 365 seats? That's... disconcerting. It made me stop and think twice. Same with the Scottish Lib Dems. You ain't winning 61 seats, I guarantee it!
Lastly, the tactics. This might just scare the shit out of Tory voters and have them scurry back into the fold. I get the idea that you want to portray momentum, it's normally a very effective message But we're way past that. The risk is that they go back to shore up their ailing party instead of voting for you. Similar with the SNP, but less important since I'm guessing Tory voters are more fruitful switchers, so scaring a Tory voter back probably counts double compared to an SNP stay-at-home vote.
Sorry, but I think this is a bad effort. I would have strongly advised against doing it like this.
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
That probably happens quite often, and it could have been said about Pence and his snowy white born again-ness. Of course now only an eejit would say he isn't a moral colossus compared to his prez.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
I’m old enough to remember the story that the UK election would be timed to take place a distance in time from the U.S. one, so that there wouldn’t be the uncertainty of two new senior NATO power govts in quick succession (one of whom is trump). And now look where we are. Shock summer changes of govt in France, Britain and now the US.
It is what I love about the English language is the sheer number of words and phrases which means none of us know every word/phrase and it brings joy when we learn a new word/phrase.
Follow this lady and you won't regret it.
Word of the day is 'ultra-crepidate' (19th century): to comment at length on a subject you know virtually nothing about.
Short comment on Lucy Letby trial now both trials are over and appeal ended and published today. The Court of Appeal judgement runs to 60 closely argued pages. There is one massively compelling fact about the trial. The defence didn't call any expert evidence at all. None. This will not be for want of trying. It is not relevant to the appeal, though the CA mentions the fact, but actually tells you all you need to know.
The lack of expert evidence from the defence in either trial is something I keep coming back to when I hear questions about the safety of the conviction. If there was exculpatory expert evidence then why was it not called?
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
Who are the PB Trumpers? I’m not sure we have any
Top of head with apologies to those missed:
Glenn Sandpit You Brooke Ed KitchCab Darkage
I must be missing stuff. I have yet to read a reasoned account on PB defending or affirming Trump and his approach to government, language, 6th January, social media, politics, truth, law, women or anything else.
Could someone put the rest of us right on all this? It would be good to think the rational case can be made that he is generally a sound egg and a good chap.
Farage is a damn fool. Without his Putin shite he could have overtaken the Tories. They were there - ready to be replaced - idiot
Anyone who previously doubted that he is deeply average-to-poor in the brains department should have been set straight by this campaign.
He’s smart - especially at campaigning - hence his many successes. But that was a huge misstep for sure. He totally misread the public mood over Ukraine
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Or it’s just his family gathering around him as he makes the toughest decision of his career. Which is hardly surreal.
And aren’t you a self declared convict and ex user ? That doesn’t invalidate your right to weigh in here one jot.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
If this turns out to be the case, many thanks to @rcs1000 and I think someone else who together said something on Friday that convinced me to back Kamala for president at 46.
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
Short comment on Lucy Letby trial now both trials are over and appeal ended and published today. The Court of Appeal judgement runs to 60 closely argued pages. There is one massively compelling fact about the trial. The defence didn't call any expert evidence at all. None. This will not be for want of trying. It is not relevant to the appeal, though the CA mentions the fact, but actually tells you all you need to know.
The lack of expert evidence from the defence in either trial is something I keep coming back to when I hear questions about the safety of the conviction. If there was exculpatory expert evidence then why was it not called?
They should have called Leon's expert friend, who believes Letby is 'probably innocent'. Bit of an oversight there!
Farage is a damn fool. Without his Putin shite he could have overtaken the Tories. They were there - ready to be replaced - idiot
Anyone who previously doubted that he is deeply average-to-poor in the brains department should have been set straight by this campaign.
He’s smart - especially at campaigning - hence his many successes. But that was a huge misstep for sure. He totally misread the public mood over Ukraine
I think he read the mood of his backers on the subject perfectly.
It's just appeasing a few dozen shady financiers aren't enough for a successful populist movement.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
I'm sorry to say, but this is bad.
Firstly, aesthetics: it's too busy. Text all over the place, bad colour choices (here you're constrained somewhat but the red and green arrows are an unforced error). The weird triangle thing make it look like Con and SNP are squashing you. You need more negative space and less of a spilled paintbox palette. You'd have been better off having Lib Dem taking up the middle half of the page and desaturating the rival parties' colours. You've got their symbols and their names, that's more than enough. Quite often political ads that use images of rival politicians make their pictures greyscale. You need the eye to come to YOU. In this design, there is no real focal point. Maybe the tip of the triangle, but that's no use.
Secondly, the message is confusing. You've got the Scottish Conservatives starting on 365 seats? That's... disconcerting. It made me stop and think twice. Same with the Scottish Lib Dems. You ain't winning 61 seats, I guarantee it!
Lastly, the tactics. This might just scare the shit out of Tory voters and have them scurry back into the fold. I get the idea that you want to portray momentum, it's normally a very effective message But we're way past that. The risk is that they go back to shore up their ailing party instead of voting for you. Similar with the SNP, but less important since I'm guessing Tory voters are more fruitful switchers, so scaring a Tory voter back probably counts double compared to an SNP stay-at-home vote.
Sorry, but I think this is a bad effort. I would have strongly advised against doing it like this.
Feedback is a gift - appreciated. I'm not a graphic designer (can you tell) and its been done at speed to adapt yesterday's one to the new news. Anyway, is a LD chart not supposed to be comedic?
On the strategy / tactics I hear you, but politely disagree based on what we're hearing from voters - and from what the Tories and SNP are hearing. The key thing we need to do is to push the undecideds over the line. There is a *significant* pool of Con/SNP last time votes up for grabs. They say they need permission to jump, a reason to switch.
The need to go back because the Tory/SNP need them is the thing that Swinney and Sunak have been desperately pushing to little effect. My graphic won't be the thing to push them back. But the notion of the massive change election is resonating...
who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
Short comment on Lucy Letby trial now both trials are over and appeal ended and published today. The Court of Appeal judgement runs to 60 closely argued pages. There is one massively compelling fact about the trial. The defence didn't call any expert evidence at all. None. This will not be for want of trying. It is not relevant to the appeal, though the CA mentions the fact, but actually tells you all you need to know.
The lack of expert evidence from the defence in either trial is something I keep coming back to when I hear questions about the safety of the conviction. If there was exculpatory expert evidence then why was it not called?
That's why it is the one thing that really matters. The prosecution brought loads of independent expert evidence. The defence will have tried hard to get any amount of stuff in rebuttal. The conclusion is obvious, sadly. It could not be done. The CA refer to its absence on page 1 of the judgment, even though in law it's of no relevance.
Farage is a damn fool. Without his Putin shite he could have overtaken the Tories. They were there - ready to be replaced - idiot
Anyone who previously doubted that he is deeply average-to-poor in the brains department should have been set straight by this campaign.
He’s smart - especially at campaigning - hence his many successes. But that was a huge misstep for sure. He totally misread the public mood over Ukraine
He’s superficially very charming, which accounts for his campaign success, but that is an indicator of psychopathy more than IQ.
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
Ok but identity is always more important than ability when completing the ticket. Eg Pence for the evangelicals, LBJ for the South, Obama needed some white etc etc. It's American politics. It's not like recruiting a new chief actuary for an insurance company, it's about demographics and votes.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
oh God
Yesterday's version just had the Blue and Yellow halves comparing their identical claims against each other. I couldn't resist converting it to ramp this new MRP.
Does explain a lot though about today's SNP pleading for votes. The Tories are also pleading - with Reform who I think could take several thousand votes minimum off DRoss.
I think finding comparison between SNP and Conservative would have been a much more fruitful message. You want to demoralise supporters of both by comparing the two to each other. Then, your "Change" message hits a sweet spot.
I can't post the image as I've used my one for the day. But what you described is literally yesterday's graphic so I entirely agree with you!
Maybe I should have stuck to my beliefs two years ago that the tories were viscerally loathed by large swathes of Britain.
Clearly been spending too long lately in leafy Surrey. Although they’re not popular here either, if you can hear the voices over the din of the leaf blowers.
If I have this correct, a lot of PBers are more engaged with the issue of Tory possible wipeout than lots of Labour seats.
It seems to me this is right and captures the zeitgeist. The utterly distinctive feel of this election is Get Tories Smashed not Get Labour In - that was 1997.
Which is why, I think, Survation are about right. 75-80% of voters are ganging up in effect to ensure the Tories are decimated and both conscious and unconscious tactical voting will be enormous. In a sense I am an invisible example. I shall vote Labour. If I voted in one of the Tory/LD seats I would transfer to LD without thinking at all, and wouldn't even reckon I was voting tactically.
This could well prove to be the post of the campaign.
I’m going to lose money if they go under 100 seats
Yes - I'm thoroughly green on Tories above 100 seats, and I'm looking for an option for below 100 just to protect (maybe part of) my stakes.
The best I can see is Tories 50-99 on 5/4 (surely they won't go under 50?) or Tories under 100 at about evens (10/11).
Both will make a smallish hole in my profits but probably worth it.
What we need is lots more swingback for 12 hours .
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
Farage is a damn fool. Without his Putin shite he could have overtaken the Tories. They were there - ready to be replaced - idiot
Anyone who previously doubted that he is deeply average-to-poor in the brains department should have been set straight by this campaign.
He’s smart - especially at campaigning - hence his many successes. But that was a huge misstep for sure. He totally misread the public mood over Ukraine
There's. IDK, 10-15% who agree with him on it, but many of those are on the Galloway/Corbyn side of politics, whilst he's hoping to break into 20s and replace the Tories, it was a needless error.
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
That probably happens quite often, and it could have been said about Pence and his snowy white born again-ness. Of course now only an eejit would say he isn't a moral colossus compared to his prez.
Lyndon Johnson was chosen to help carry the south for Kennedy.
Nixon was picked for his record as an anti-Communist.
Cheney was picked to appeal to big business.
Biden himself was picked to plug gaps in Obama's foreign policy knowledge.
Pence was designed to ease evangelicals' consciences over voting for a serial womaniser and fraudster.
Harris isn't unusual. What I do find surprising is how she seems to have been so low profile. You would have expected her to be front and centre of every campaign given Biden's age, her vast experience of legal matters and the attacks on women the Republicans have been making, but I've not picked up on it if she has.
More of a manager than a leader is my assessment. Not at all a bad thing in a deputy, maybe not ideal in a President.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
I think that's nonsense really. There are so many missteps that aren't anything to do with Brexit that have caused the Tories demise. Boris doesn't party, the Tories were still polling fine. Then they pick Truss, who goes for mental approach out the gate and ratners Tory brand for at least doing economic management ok, then they go for Sunak, who is far worse than anybody expected.
Even now, he runs a half decent campaign from the start, Farage doesn't appear, the Tories probably get over 30%. Instead they went absolute mental bullshit stuff and Farage saw an opportunity.
But without Brexit, Johnson would never have got to the top. And the rest is history.
Plus, Brexit built them an unstable coalition that was never going to hang together, and drove a wedge between the Tories and their traditional educated, middle class, business-friendly base which, with luck, is about to lose them a shedload of seats in the Home Counties. Without Brexit, do you really think we’d even be talking about the LibDems sweeping Surrey, or Labour having a long shot chance in Wealden?
As well as annoying people who were OK with the EU, actually doing Brexit meant annoying most people who supported it. There are exceptions, mostly those who like Brexit as an abstract concept, because concepts can never be found wanting. But people who supported it as a means to an end... Some of them are let down because the actual Brexit didn't go down the pathway they had hoped for (Lexiteers, or Atlanticist deregulators, for example). Others are let down because Brexit couldn't sustain the hopes pinned on it.
Boris was like that Roman bloke, the one who would have been the perfect emperor, had he never become emperor. Brexit would have been the perfect policy, had it never happened. Dom Cummings insisted on blowing the bloody doors off, and took the Conservatives with it.
I don’t like this person - so he’s stupid I don’t like this poll - therefore it’s wrong I don’t want this to happen - so it won’t
It’s really quite a poor show
Not sure about the second one. Don’t most of us think “I like this poll - therefore it’s wrong”? Or am I the only paranoid reverse psychologist on here?
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
Ok but identity is always more important than ability when completing the ticket. Eg Pence for the evangelicals, LBJ for the South, Obama needed some white etc etc. It's American politics. It's not like recruiting a new chief actuary for an insurance company, it's about demographics and votes.
My comment on the Trumpite Evangelicals is that they aren't Evangelicals any more; they have become Pharisees in the sense of the New Testament or - as it was put in the parable - 'whitewashed tombs, full of rotting bones'.
Farage is a damn fool. Without his Putin shite he could have overtaken the Tories. They were there - ready to be replaced - idiot
Anyone who previously doubted that he is deeply average-to-poor in the brains department should have been set straight by this campaign.
He’s smart - especially at campaigning - hence his many successes. But that was a huge misstep for sure. He totally misread the public mood over Ukraine
I think he read the mood of his backers on the subject perfectly.
It's just appeasing a few dozen shady financiers aren't enough for a successful populist movement.
The great majority of populists are perfectly nice people, just don't let them lose on running the country. The malign actors behind the scenes and the QAnon conspiracy theorists are insufficient in number to turn elections (in the UK - USA is another story). So the Putin thing was either bonkers and harmless or (more likely) there are some bad alliances out there with actual strings.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Alot of Tories think the Reform vote will come rocking back, because it always does. Except I don’t see it this time. UKIP was about pressure on Europe. Reform is a howl of rage, and most of those backing it would rather not vote thsn vote for the current Tory offer. It’s not happening.
It’s already happening, as seen in multiple polls the last 2 days.
No, it isn’t, to any great degree. I wouldn’t be surprised if some pollsters have models that automatically factor in swingback. Reform will get 14-15%, which is where they’ve been all along.
Farage is a damn fool. Without his Putin shite he could have overtaken the Tories. They were there - ready to be replaced - idiot
Anyone who previously doubted that he is deeply average-to-poor in the brains department should have been set straight by this campaign.
He’s smart - especially at campaigning - hence his many successes. But that was a huge misstep for sure. He totally misread the public mood over Ukraine
He’s superficially very charming, which accounts for his campaign success, but that is an indicator of psychopathy more than IQ.
I don’t find him charming, particularly. A bit too much smarm and bogus bonhomie
What he is usually good at is focusing on the stuff that annoys lots of people that politer politicians don’t mention - he will say what they won’t say! He thinks what you’re thinking!
But no one was thinking “I wish the EU and NATO hasn’t expanded so rapidly thereby making Vladimir Putin feel menaced”. It was one of the turning points of the campaign and screwed his chances of overtaking the Tories
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Short comment on Lucy Letby trial now both trials are over and appeal ended and published today. The Court of Appeal judgement runs to 60 closely argued pages. There is one massively compelling fact about the trial. The defence didn't call any expert evidence at all. None. This will not be for want of trying. It is not relevant to the appeal, though the CA mentions the fact, but actually tells you all you need to know.
The lack of expert evidence from the defence in either trial is something I keep coming back to when I hear questions about the safety of the conviction. If there was exculpatory expert evidence then why was it not called?
That's why it is the one thing that really matters. The prosecution brought loads of independent expert evidence. The defence will have tried hard to get any amount of stuff in rebuttal. The conclusion is obvious, sadly. It could not be done. The CA refer to its absence on page 1 of the judgment, even though in law it's of no relevance.
Defence lawyers can fuck up…but rarely that badly.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
Maybe she’s got an unavoidable dentist appointment?
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
Kamala’s numbers have always been worse than Biden’s. Nothing has changed there. Which is a major reason why there isnt a big call for Biden to go.
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
Who are the PB Trumpers? I’m not sure we have any
Top of head with apologies to those missed:
Glenn Sandpit You Brooke Ed KitchCab Darkage
I must be missing stuff. I have yet to read a reasoned account on PB defending or affirming Trump and his approach to government, language, 6th January, social media, politics, truth, law, women or anything else.
Could someone put the rest of us right on all this? It would be good to think the rational case can be made that he is generally a sound egg and a good chap.
We don't tend to see that because it's not possible. However we have posters who, come the first Tuesday in November, will be rooting for Trump to win. They are who I mean by "PBTrumpers".
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
Ok but identity is always more important than ability when completing the ticket. Eg Pence for the evangelicals, LBJ for the South, Obama needed some white etc etc. It's American politics. It's not like recruiting a new chief actuary for an insurance company, it's about demographics and votes.
My comment on the Trumpite Evangelicals is that they aren't Evangelicals any more; they have become Pharisees in the sense of the New Testament or - as it was put in the parable - 'whitewashed tombs, full of rotting bones'.
Yes, I am not an evangelical at all but on the whole UK evangelicals make the UK a better place, more full of decent people who want to do their bit even though they can have odd views, they are remarkably well intentioned and kind. OTOH something has gone terribly wrong with USA evangelicalism, which is more like a weird cult, very detached from that very fine and admirable 1st century Galilean.
Farage is a damn fool. Without his Putin shite he could have overtaken the Tories. They were there - ready to be replaced - idiot
Anyone who previously doubted that he is deeply average-to-poor in the brains department should have been set straight by this campaign.
He’s smart - especially at campaigning - hence his many successes. But that was a huge misstep for sure. He totally misread the public mood over Ukraine
He’s superficially very charming, which accounts for his campaign success, but that is an indicator of psychopathy more than IQ.
I don’t find him charming, particularly. A bit too much smarm and bogus bonhomie
What he is usually good at is focusing on the stuff that annoys lots of people that politer politicians don’t mention - he will say what they won’t say! He thinks what you’re thinking!
But no one was thinking “I wish the EU and NATO hasn’t expanded so rapidly thereby making Vladimir Putin feel menaced”. It was one of the turning points of the campaign and screwed his chances of overtaking the Tories
I think he is. As you say, he’s the sort of person who makes a certain type of voter think “he’s on my wavelength, he gets me” which is, in politics as in romance, charm. Superficial charm but charm nonetheless.
The Survation MRP is saying the LDs will only get 1% in Bury St Edmunds, presumably because they didn't stand there last time in favour of the Greens, but it still looks a bit strange.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Alot of Tories think the Reform vote will come rocking back, because it always does. Except I don’t see it this time. UKIP was about pressure on Europe. Reform is a howl of rage, and most of those backing it would rather not vote thsn vote for the current Tory offer. It’s not happening.
I held my nose and Voted for Nadine in 2019 to get Brexit over the line.
This time I'm voting for who I want to vote for.
I'm more worried that it will let the "wet" the tories have chosen win, than Starmer getting a huge majority.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
I think that's nonsense really. There are so many missteps that aren't anything to do with Brexit that have caused the Tories demise. Boris doesn't party, the Tories were still polling fine. Then they pick Truss, who goes for mental approach out the gate and ratners Tory brand for at least doing economic management ok, then they go for Sunak, who is far worse than anybody expected.
Even now, he runs a half decent campaign from the start, Farage doesn't appear, the Tories probably get over 30%. Instead they went absolute mental bullshit stuff and Farage saw an opportunity.
But without Brexit, Johnson would never have got to the top. And the rest is history.
Plus, Brexit built them an unstable coalition that was never going to hang together, and drove a wedge between the Tories and their traditional educated, middle class, business-friendly base which, with luck, is about to lose them a shedload of seats in the Home Counties. Without Brexit, do you really think we’d even be talking about the LibDems sweeping Surrey, or Labour having a long shot chance in Wealden?
Nope. Johnson was going to get that top spot no matter what. It was why he was always going to back Leave. If they won then he was the man that won it and if they lost he was perfectly placed for when the Tories ripped themselves apart over (non) Brexit after the event. The last 7 years have all been about Johnson in one way or another. The Tories were doomed no matter what.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
I'm sorry to say, but this is bad.
Firstly, aesthetics: it's too busy. Text all over the place, bad colour choices (here you're constrained somewhat but the red and green arrows are an unforced error). The weird triangle thing make it look like Con and SNP are squashing you. You need more negative space and less of a spilled paintbox palette. You'd have been better off having Lib Dem taking up the middle half of the page and desaturating the rival parties' colours. You've got their symbols and their names, that's more than enough. Quite often political ads that use images of rival politicians make their pictures greyscale. You need the eye to come to YOU. In this design, there is no real focal point. Maybe the tip of the triangle, but that's no use.
Secondly, the message is confusing. You've got the Scottish Conservatives starting on 365 seats? That's... disconcerting. It made me stop and think twice. Same with the Scottish Lib Dems. You ain't winning 61 seats, I guarantee it!
Lastly, the tactics. This might just scare the shit out of Tory voters and have them scurry back into the fold. I get the idea that you want to portray momentum, it's normally a very effective message But we're way past that. The risk is that they go back to shore up their ailing party instead of voting for you. Similar with the SNP, but less important since I'm guessing Tory voters are more fruitful switchers, so scaring a Tory voter back probably counts double compared to an SNP stay-at-home vote.
Sorry, but I think this is a bad effort. I would have strongly advised against doing it like this.
Feedback is a gift - appreciated. I'm not a graphic designer (can you tell) and its been done at speed to adapt yesterday's one to the new news. Anyway, is a LD chart not supposed to be comedic?
On the strategy / tactics I hear you, but politely disagree based on what we're hearing from voters - and from what the Tories and SNP are hearing. The key thing we need to do is to push the undecideds over the line. There is a *significant* pool of Con/SNP last time votes up for grabs. They say they need permission to jump, a reason to switch.
The need to go back because the Tory/SNP need them is the thing that Swinney and Sunak have been desperately pushing to little effect. My graphic won't be the thing to push them back. But the notion of the massive change election is resonating...
Oh I agree there are two huge pools of former Tory and SNP votes to be won.
As for LD charts being comedic: it's a fun trope for use pol nerds but probably not a hugely well known thing for the the hoi polloi. The charts seem effective because they're usually clear, bold, and striking. Don't cringe from a good bar chart and don't worry if it's "lightly sandpapered" as Boris Johnson would say.
Out canvassing on Sunday one resident, a newly eligible to vote Chinese woman, told me she had found the piles of Lib Dem leaflets arriving through her door really informative (she pointed to them all arranged on her hall table). She’d had 10x as many from us as anyone else.
And she really found the bar chart on the back useful to understand who the competitive parties are in Sutton and Cheam.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Your point being that Kamala makes it hard for you to KOM?
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
That probably happens quite often, and it could have been said about Pence and his snowy white born again-ness. Of course now only an eejit would say he isn't a moral colossus compared to his prez.
That's a fair enough point. Often the Veep is chosen in order to help win a particular state. It's hard to know why Pence was chosen - it felt at the time like pretty much every other senior republican had fallen out with Trump or was wary of working with him so the field wasn't great. And for that reason the veep isn't a paricularly good candidate for president.
Though ironically if you look at Biden back in the Obama era - gosh, if only they could find a candidate like that now.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
I'm sorry to say, but this is bad.
Firstly, aesthetics: it's too busy. Text all over the place, bad colour choices (here you're constrained somewhat but the red and green arrows are an unforced error). The weird triangle thing make it look like Con and SNP are squashing you. You need more negative space and less of a spilled paintbox palette. You'd have been better off having Lib Dem taking up the middle half of the page and desaturating the rival parties' colours. You've got their symbols and their names, that's more than enough. Quite often political ads that use images of rival politicians make their pictures greyscale. You need the eye to come to YOU. In this design, there is no real focal point. Maybe the tip of the triangle, but that's no use.
Secondly, the message is confusing. You've got the Scottish Conservatives starting on 365 seats? That's... disconcerting. It made me stop and think twice. Same with the Scottish Lib Dems. You ain't winning 61 seats, I guarantee it!
Lastly, the tactics. This might just scare the shit out of Tory voters and have them scurry back into the fold. I get the idea that you want to portray momentum, it's normally a very effective message But we're way past that. The risk is that they go back to shore up their ailing party instead of voting for you. Similar with the SNP, but less important since I'm guessing Tory voters are more fruitful switchers, so scaring a Tory voter back probably counts double compared to an SNP stay-at-home vote.
Sorry, but I think this is a bad effort. I would have strongly advised against doing it like this.
Feedback is a gift - appreciated. I'm not a graphic designer (can you tell) and its been done at speed to adapt yesterday's one to the new news. Anyway, is a LD chart not supposed to be comedic?
On the strategy / tactics I hear you, but politely disagree based on what we're hearing from voters - and from what the Tories and SNP are hearing. The key thing we need to do is to push the undecideds over the line. There is a *significant* pool of Con/SNP last time votes up for grabs. They say they need permission to jump, a reason to switch.
The need to go back because the Tory/SNP need them is the thing that Swinney and Sunak have been desperately pushing to little effect. My graphic won't be the thing to push them back. But the notion of the massive change election is resonating...
Oh I agree there are two huge pools of former Tory and SNP votes to be won.
As for LD charts being comedic: it's a fun trope for use pol nerds but probably not a hugely well known thing for the the hoi polloi. The charts seem effective because they're usually clear, bold, and striking. Don't cringe from a good bar chart and don't worry if it's "lightly sandpapered" as Boris Johnson would say.
Out canvassing on Sunday one resident, a newly eligible to vote Chinese woman, told me she had found the piles of Lib Dem leaflets arriving through her door really informative (she pointed to them all arranged on her hall table). She’d had 10x as many from us as anyone else.
And she really found the bar chart on the back useful to understand who the competitive parties are in Sutton and Cheam.
The voters who read all your leaflets, keep and file them in order, and can quote bits back to you, are the scary ones, for sure.
On the subject of the US Presidential race, Kamala has (very unusually) been at home in Los Angeles for at least a week. This is by far the longest period she's spent here since becoming Vice President.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
This has an irritatingly negative impact on my cycling: my nearest Strava category 3 climb goes right past Kamala's house and the street is currently closed by the Secret Service. I can do a detour around it, but then it annoyingly decides I haven't done a category anything climb.
Your point being that Kamala makes it hard for you to KOM?
I'm not going to KOM round here because professional cyclists knock out insane times. My favorite ride - which does not involve Kamala's house, but it does involve Sunset, which I hate - has the following KOM times:
These guys weigh nothing, and then knock out 400+W for 15 minutes and then don't even look tired.
Comments
Not that far off a Biden/Kamala crossover in price now. I can't figure out if someone knows something or this is crypto bros that think they do.
ANY FONT
BUT PICK ONE
PLEASE
https://x.com/milkmanmeme/status/1808098280401760696?s=46
I just don't think that as many people as their showing in the polls will embrace that vision for a major political party.
CA judgment here:
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240702-R-v-Letby-conviction-application.pdf
Hopefully he’s clean. Seems a nice guy and I love this rivalry with Vingegaard.
Would make sense politically and would solve a great many problems constitutionally.
Harris is neither. She doesn’t do the casual, relaxy, pally, jokey stuff well - she comes across as forced and awkward. And the impression I get is that instead of letting her build her own power base and strength in the administration Biden has been satisfied to give her hospital-pass briefs and keep her at arms length.
However, as a senator she could be clear, sharp and incisive. There is a reason she was considered a rising star in the Democratic Party.
I happen to think she’d actually do OK as President. The danger is that Americans like their personable, folksy Presidents and they don’t really like the serious administrators (Hillary says hi).
But in opposition to Trump and a Supreme Court off the rails? I think she could take the fight to the GOP, which is what is needed and what Biden can’t offer now - he is too diminished, too feeble. America needs someone to stand up and put it all on the line. In that role, I think she might be quite effective.
But what do I know? We will all know on Friday morning unless there are a number of crucial recounts going into Friday afternoon.
Whatever happens the result will still be a shocker and historic. It will be a question in GCE papers for decades to come. Is it still called GCE?
Yesterday’s win by Girmay was also wonderful to see. The first black African to win a stage of the Tour.
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/summer/cycling/biniam-girmay-first-black-african-tour-de-france-stage-win-1.7251965
Could someone put the rest of us right on all this? It would be good to think the rational case can be made that he is generally a sound egg and a good chap.
Hertsmere, Ruislip, Beaconsfield, Droitwich, Richmond & Northallerton,
Brentwood, Rutland, Sevenoaks, Chelsea & Fulham, Aberdeenshire North,
Braintree, Berwickshire, NW Hants, Maldon, Witham,
East Wiltshire, Broadland & Fakenham, Fareham & Waterlooville, Hamble Valley, Tonbridge,
South Holland & the Deepings, Chelmsford, Gainsborough, Windsor, NE Cambs,
NW Essex, Skipton & Ripon, Havant, Broxbourne, Boston & Skegness,
Faversham & Mid Kent, Runnymede & Weybridge, West Suffolk, Dumfriesshire, Wokingham,
NE Hants, Sleaford, Dumfries, East Surrey, Arundel,
North Devon, New Forest East, SW Herts, Farnham & Bordon, North Herefordshire,
Melksham & Devizes, Bury St Edmunds, North Cotswolds, West Aberdeenshire, Christchurch,
New Forest West, South Shropshire, Sutton & Cheam
Also not having to hear Danny Murphy’s inane drone is by itself a bit of a treat.
Commentators and pundits don’t usually get under my skin but he really winds me up.
And aren’t you a self declared convict and ex user ?
That doesn’t invalidate your right to weigh in here one jot.
It's just appeasing a few dozen shady financiers aren't enough for a successful populist movement.
On the strategy / tactics I hear you, but politely disagree based on what we're hearing from voters - and from what the Tories and SNP are hearing. The key thing we need to do is to push the undecideds over the line. There is a *significant* pool of Con/SNP last time votes up for grabs. They say they need permission to jump, a reason to switch.
The need to go back because the Tory/SNP need them is the thing that Swinney and Sunak have been desperately pushing to little effect. My graphic won't be the thing to push them back. But the notion of the massive change election is resonating...
who thought getting Boris to do the practically-eve-of-election rally was going to help? All he's doing is reminding part of the Tory vote they'd rather have him as leader & reminding much of the rest of the country why they're not voting Tory
I don’t like this person - so he’s stupid
I don’t like this poll - therefore it’s wrong
I don’t want this to happen - so it won’t
It’s really quite a poor show
https://sociopathicstyle.com/psychopathic-traits/
Maybe they were saving up for a big push in the final 48 hours?
https://twitter.com/ianincyaak/status/1807891319576318337
The best I can see is Tories 50-99 on 5/4 (surely they won't go under 50?) or Tories under 100 at about evens (10/11).
Both will make a smallish hole in my profits but probably worth it.
What we need is lots more swingback for 12 hours
Any ideas or suggestions are welcome.
One thing she has certainly not done is to fly to the East Coast to offer Joe Biden her full support.
Nixon was picked for his record as an anti-Communist.
Cheney was picked to appeal to big business.
Biden himself was picked to plug gaps in Obama's foreign policy knowledge.
Pence was designed to ease evangelicals' consciences over voting for a serial womaniser and fraudster.
Harris isn't unusual. What I do find surprising is how she seems to have been so low profile. You would have expected her to be front and centre of every campaign given Biden's age, her vast experience of legal matters and the attacks on women the Republicans have been making, but I've not picked up on it if she has.
More of a manager than a leader is my assessment. Not at all a bad thing in a deputy, maybe not ideal in a President.
Boris was like that Roman bloke, the one who would have been the perfect emperor, had he never become emperor. Brexit would have been the perfect policy, had it never happened. Dom Cummings insisted on blowing the bloody doors off, and took the Conservatives with it.
This seems totally on brand for the LibDems to me (FWIW).
'I am an expert on AI and you're all so thick, then uses an app not realising it is an AI app.'
What he is usually good at is focusing on the stuff that annoys lots of people that politer politicians don’t mention - he will say what they won’t say! He thinks what you’re thinking!
But no one was thinking “I wish the EU and NATO hasn’t expanded so rapidly thereby making Vladimir Putin feel menaced”. It was one of the turning points of the campaign and screwed his chances of overtaking the Tories
hospital bedshoes.He is currently leader of the ScotCons. He fancies a bigger role...
Anything is possible in Euro 2024!
Anything is possible on Thursday night??
A fail for the brand
Even in the black community her support is low. There are a bunch of cases, from when she was DA, that don’t sit well there.
This time I'm voting for who I want to vote for.
I'm more worried that it will let the "wet" the tories have chosen win, than Starmer getting a huge majority.
And she really found the bar chart on the back useful to understand who the competitive parties are in Sutton and Cheam.
Two people today gave me Boris Johnson as a key driver as to why they have switched Con to LD. So yeah, Boris! Boris! Boris!
And for that reason the veep isn't a paricularly good candidate for president.
Though ironically if you look at Biden back in the Obama era - gosh, if only they could find a candidate like that now.
Car driving down the street... don't vote LibDem
Lost my glasses again... don't vote LibDem
A pint of bitter... don't mind if I... don't vote LibDem
In an unfortunate oversight, Johnson forgot the page in his speech praising Rishi Sunak.
👀 notice Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak didn’t share the stage between their speeches - one man out, next one in.
These guys weigh nothing, and then knock out 400+W for 15 minutes and then don't even look tired.