I remember when Osborne or Cameron said to much scoffing from those that follow polls that they thought they’d get a majority in 2015. While unlikely, it’s not completely completely inconceivable that there may be a huge shock coming Thursday night and it is more like hung parliament territory.
I keep saying till I am blue in the face that, whatever the polls say, getting a majority of 1 when you have to win ~120 seats (140 including boundary changes) in two countries where most seats are currently held by two separate parties, is no easy task.
Hiroshima is still standing, because destroying a city with a single bomb is no easy task
The other thing that is interesting about the data is the current leader for each constitutency
Labour are currently leading in 498 Lib Dems are leading in 65 Tories are leading in 53 SNP are leading in 8 Green are leading in 2 Plaid are leading in 2 Reform are leading in 1
Wow... that would be pretty meaningful
Carol Vorderman says there are only 13 seats where all pollsters show a tory lead.
Saw a spreadsheet this wkend showing recent polling for each constituency from all major pollsters
Guess approx number of seats the Tory is predicted to win by ALL pollsters?
It’s a shocker!!
Only 13 SEATS where all the pollsters said a Tory win!!
#MondayMotivation Last edited 9:29 AM · Jul 1, 2024 · 295.2K Views
This is the same Voderman that was saying she had insider knowledge that Sunak was definitely getting replaced 2 days into the campaign. She has turned into left wing Plato (formerly of this parish). All tweets require fact checking now.
Yeah, Vorders has gone off the deep end. Would love to know what the story is behind her bitterness?
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
If Biden had bowed out last year they’d have had a competitive primary process and the chance to find a different candidate. As it is, they are too close to November, with primary season done, to really reinvent the wheel. So it’s Kamala.
The President being commander in chief is a constitutional described power, so yes. On the Court’s ruling, absolute immunity for any such order.
And he could pardon anyone charged for obeying it. Which the Court has said they can’t question.
Don't worry though, no one would actually do such a thing. What do they think this is, a place where a violent mob storms the Capitol and elected officials openly talk about rejecting any outcome they do not like, even when courts have not found any fault?
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
The oil price is spiking again though which will impact inflation.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
My numbers are a few percentage points away from current polls with the biggest difference being that I don't think Reform will poll as well as they have, er, been polling. Come the Big One, that is.
Sadly I will miss the epic reactions when the exit poll drops on Thursday night, but I expect it to be glorious no matter what it shows.
I may go to bed early. I'm not overfond of the incoming Lab, and whilst I'm pleased to see Con out I'd be a fool not to concede that there are a lot of good Cons people who will be hurt by this. Nothing except a battle lost is sadder than a battle won, and a' that.
I'd planned to go to bed early, but have since taken Friday off. The temptation to stay up and see just one of my 'yep - you're an ass' ministers get kicked out was too strong.
Survation is showing the Greens taking West Worcestershire, but not Bristol Central, Waveney Valley or indeed North Herefordshire. That's... unexpected.
That is bad news for my book. What is Green about West Worcestershire that isn't Green about Brizzle Middle?
I wonder why there is such disbelief on here this evening. The polls have been showing a huge Labour victory and the Lib Dem’s and the Tories being neck and neck for second place all the way through. Why are people surprised nothing has changed? The polls may be wrong of course, but pretending this is somehow a surprise is strange. It is just more of the same.
Normalcy bias
Well that´s a bit glib. ;-)
There are several problems, not least the age of the data and the contrast with the headline poll numbers and trends. There is also the very narrow gap in several constituencies which makes for quite wide margins for error in seat number forecasts. The MRP methods are also rather untested, so it is hard to see if there is any systematic bias in the stratification.
Yes Labour are going to win big. However the questions remains open as to how the seats break between Tory and Lib Dem. That is where several of these polls are going to stand or fall. It would be easier if the Tories were in free fall, but so far the evidence is that they may have found a floor. The question is with tactical voting, targetting and local swing, is that floor 140 or 50.
Survation says closer to 50, It is brave call, but if it is accurate then MRP is vindicated.
But FPTP would be totally discredited when if gets 75% of the seats on 40% of the vote. the Tories are third in seats, despite coming second in votes, the Lib Dems are second is seats but fourth in votes, and RefUk gets 16% and not much to show for it.
The voting system is basically indefensible on these numbers. Would SKS have the courage to take that bull by the horns?
The FPTP voting system is defensible, but it takes subtler stuff than maths to do it. FWIW the only desirable change is to employ AV, so that newbies can build a base and there doesn't have to be 'wasted vote' syndrome. (However we said no recently).
FPTP is generally great. To form a government you have to come first in 325/6 races out of 650 and in every race everyone is allowed to do everything they can to beat you in an ungloved cage fight. You have to be organised and you have to be good. You have to be better than the best of the rest. And it is hugely enjoyable.
And if we feel like it we can suddenly, on a whim, say 'There's no such thing as a safe Tory seat'. And we do.
I wonder why there is such disbelief on here this evening. The polls have been showing a huge Labour victory and the Lib Dem’s and the Tories being neck and neck for second place all the way through. Why are people surprised nothing has changed? The polls may be wrong of course, but pretending this is somehow a surprise is strange. It is just more of the same.
Normalcy bias
Well that´s a bit glib. ;-)
There are several problems, not least the age of the data and the contrast with the headline poll numbers and trends. There is also the very narrow gap in several constituencies which makes for quite wide margins for error in seat number forecasts. The MRP methods are also rather untested, so it is hard to see if there is any systematic bias in the stratification.
Yes Labour are going to win big. However the questions remains open as to how the seats break between Tory and Lib Dem. That is where several of these polls are going to stand or fall. It would be easier if the Tories were in free fall, but so far the evidence is that they may have found a floor. The question is with tactical voting, targetting and local swing, is that floor 140 or 50.
Survation says closer to 50, It is brave call, but if it is accurate then MRP is vindicated.
But FPTP would be totally discredited when if gets 75% of the seats on 40% of the vote. the Tories are third in seats, despite coming second in votes, the Lib Dems are second is seats but fourth in votes, and RefUk gets 16% and not much to show for it.
The voting system is basically indefensible on these numbers. Would SKS have the courage to take that bull by the horns?
FPTP has been discredited for the last 50 years. It produces hugely unrepresentative outcomes and always has. It also forces people to vote for things they don’t really want but are ‘not as bad’ as the alternative. Why is it that just because the system might, in this one election, have turned against its architects they are suddenly going on about how unfair and unjust it is as if we did not already know.
Starmer has been this evening to Cannock Chase constituency.
Tory majority of 19,879
Blimey.
They wouldn’t be doing it at this stage just for lols. These ’safe' tory seats are evidently in play.
They may think they are in play and be wrong, parties internal predictions are no more likely to be right than any publicly known ones, but they appear to have decent reason to think they are in play.
Strangely, most of the seats with mid-sized majorities, where Labour are expected now to win, aren't showing up on their canvassing website. They're still asking for volunteers in the tightest marginals, like Bury North and South, which will definitely go Labour, but not in places like Fylde or Tatton, which most MRPs have going Labour, but are much closer.
That’s their strategy to make sure of the working majority, and treat the rest as windfall. Just as the LibDems are (or should be) focusing on getting to 30-40, and hopefully recover third party status, and not getting carried away sending money and people to long shots, like they did last time.
AIUI the Lib Dems are targeting eighty seats, and that might be the grand total inclusive of what they already hold. That doesn't seem excessive if you're trying to get to around 50 and assuming that not nearly everything will come off.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
That is a curious definition of 'getting better'. "Not getting worse as quickly" is another possible phrasing.
It was put to me by a noted, and super left wing economist, that he saw why Rishi called the election when he did - precisely because some of the economic aggregates were ticking up. Interest rates was the big one that didn't improve/signal better at that particular time, but they have since.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
I wonder why there is such disbelief on here this evening. The polls have been showing a huge Labour victory and the Lib Dem’s and the Tories being neck and neck for second place all the way through. Why are people surprised nothing has changed? The polls may be wrong of course, but pretending this is somehow a surprise is strange. It is just more of the same.
Normalcy bias
Well that´s a bit glib. ;-)
There are several problems, not least the age of the data and the contrast with the headline poll numbers and trends. There is also the very narrow gap in several constituencies which makes for quite wide margins for error in seat number forecasts. The MRP methods are also rather untested, so it is hard to see if there is any systematic bias in the stratification.
Yes Labour are going to win big. However the questions remains open as to how the seats break between Tory and Lib Dem. That is where several of these polls are going to stand or fall. It would be easier if the Tories were in free fall, but so far the evidence is that they may have found a floor. The question is with tactical voting, targetting and local swing, is that floor 140 or 50.
Survation says closer to 50, It is brave call, but if it is accurate then MRP is vindicated.
But FPTP would be totally discredited when if gets 75% of the seats on 40% of the vote. the Tories are third in seats, despite coming second in votes, the Lib Dems are second is seats but fourth in votes, and RefUk gets 16% and not much to show for it.
The voting system is basically indefensible on these numbers. Would SKS have the courage to take that bull by the horns?
The FPTP voting system is defensible, but it takes subtler stuff than maths to do it. FWIW the only desirable change is to employ AV, so that newbies can build a base and there doesn't have to be 'wasted vote' syndrome. (However we said no recently).
FPTP is generally great. To form a government you have to come first in 325/6 races out of 650 and in every race everyone is allowed to do everything they can to beat you in an ungloved cage fight. You have to be organised and you have to be good. You have to be better than the best of the rest. And it is hugely enjoyable.
And if we feel like it we can suddenly, on a whim, say 'There's no such thing as a safe Tory seat'. And we do.
Pretty ridiculous - that's the one case that didn't involve any official acts, but at most he happened to be President when signed some checks for his personal lawyer.
Do lawyers every miss an opportunity to drag things out ?
I wonder why there is such disbelief on here this evening. The polls have been showing a huge Labour victory and the Lib Dem’s and the Tories being neck and neck for second place all the way through. Why are people surprised nothing has changed? The polls may be wrong of course, but pretending this is somehow a surprise is strange. It is just more of the same.
Normalcy bias
Well that´s a bit glib. ;-)
There are several problems, not least the age of the data and the contrast with the headline poll numbers and trends. There is also the very narrow gap in several constituencies which makes for quite wide margins for error in seat number forecasts. The MRP methods are also rather untested, so it is hard to see if there is any systematic bias in the stratification.
Yes Labour are going to win big. However the questions remains open as to how the seats break between Tory and Lib Dem. That is where several of these polls are going to stand or fall. It would be easier if the Tories were in free fall, but so far the evidence is that they may have found a floor. The question is with tactical voting, targetting and local swing, is that floor 140 or 50.
Survation says closer to 50, It is brave call, but if it is accurate then MRP is vindicated.
But FPTP would be totally discredited when if gets 75% of the seats on 40% of the vote. the Tories are third in seats, despite coming second in votes, the Lib Dems are second is seats but fourth in votes, and RefUk gets 16% and not much to show for it.
The voting system is basically indefensible on these numbers. Would SKS have the courage to take that bull by the horns?
FPTP has been discredited for the last 50 years. It produces hugely unrepresentative outcomes and always has. It also forces people to vote for things they don’t really want but are ‘not as bad’ as the alternative. Why is it that just because the system might, in this one election, have turned against its architects they are suddenly going on about how unfair and unjust it is as if we did not already know.
PB’ers will be pleased to know that HY has come out in favour of PR on ConHome.
JOVAN OWUSU-Nepaul, the Labour party candidate who is standing in Clacton against Nigel Farage was left “broken”, in tears and “intimidated” after being told by party leaders being told to stop campaigning the constituency according to a member of his campaign team.
Tracy Lewis, a lifelong Labour voter who campaigned alongside Owusu-Nepaul resigned in fury from the Clacton Labour party after the party’s demand that Owusu-Nepaul “never come back” to constituency as first reported in the Guardian.
I remember when Osborne or Cameron said to much scoffing from those that follow polls that they thought they’d get a majority in 2015. While unlikely, it’s not completely completely inconceivable that there may be a huge shock coming Thursday night and it is more like hung parliament territory.
I keep saying till I am blue in the face that, whatever the polls say, getting a majority of 1 when you have to win ~120 seats (140 including boundary changes) in two countries where most seats are currently held by two separate parties, is no easy task.
Hiroshima is still standing, because destroying a city with a single bomb is no easy task
Mayor of H 8.8.45
They had the trams running again the day after your Mayors Quote.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
So you are predicting a massive polling failure, one of the biggest we’ve seen in decades? You might be right, but thats bold
As far as I see now the tory core vote is down to wealthy socially liberal but fiscally dry pensioners plus some of the top 5% with kids in private schools. Thats it.
No, the Tory core is down to “wealthy socially liberal but fiscally dry pensioners who like massive amounts of immigration and dinghy people”
They dislike immigration so much they are about to vote in Lab whose immigration policy will be....
The other thing that is interesting about the data is the current leader for each constitutency
Labour are currently leading in 498 Lib Dems are leading in 65 Tories are leading in 53 SNP are leading in 8 Green are leading in 2 Plaid are leading in 2 Reform are leading in 1
Wow... that would be pretty meaningful
Carol Vorderman says there are only 13 seats where all pollsters show a tory lead.
Saw a spreadsheet this wkend showing recent polling for each constituency from all major pollsters
Guess approx number of seats the Tory is predicted to win by ALL pollsters?
It’s a shocker!!
Only 13 SEATS where all the pollsters said a Tory win!!
#MondayMotivation Last edited 9:29 AM · Jul 1, 2024 · 295.2K Views
This is the same Voderman that was saying she had insider knowledge that Sunak was definitely getting replaced 2 days into the campaign. She has turned into left wing Plato (formerly of this parish). All tweets require fact checking now.
Yeah, Vorders has gone off the deep end. Would love to know what the story is behind her bitterness?
Its the new midlife crisis for some (formerly) mildly famous people. We can reel of a decent list of those people from the left and the right, who are on the tw@tters all the time, in their echo chambers going deeper and deeper down the rabbit hole.
I remember when Osborne or Cameron said to much scoffing from those that follow polls that they thought they’d get a majority in 2015. While unlikely, it’s not completely completely inconceivable that there may be a huge shock coming Thursday night and it is more like hung parliament territory.
I keep saying till I am blue in the face that, whatever the polls say, getting a majority of 1 when you have to win ~120 seats (140 including boundary changes) in two countries where most seats are currently held by two separate parties, is no easy task.
Hiroshima is still standing, because destroying a city with a single bomb is no easy task
Mayor of H 8.8.45
They had the trams running again the day after your Mayors Quote.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
Is there an elephant conspicuously absent from the room you describe? Who is this Bailey guy anyway?
Ian B posts on this very forum.
But not me. Many years ago, the site told me that IanB was taken, so I joined up with the 2. Maybe Mr Bailey got there first, but if he did, I never saw him using the tag here.
On VI the wizards are Opinium, Survation and Verian (ex-Kantar) who have been in the closest 4 in the last three GEs. Ipsos also have a good record. Everyone else either have to prove themselves or have to improve on their recent efforts.
I'll also suggest that the three above firms won't be herding because they don't need to. Survation, of course, got their fingers burned doing that in 2015! I think they are coinfident in their own methods.
MRPs are very different. Firms have so many different variables involved that they can and do vary wildly. We vary from Lab majorities of 382 (Savanta) and 318 (Survation) to 200 (YouGov) and 162 (MIC). Con seats from 53 (Savanta) or 64 (Survation) to 115 (Ipsos) and 155 (MIC). Its likely the result will be somewhere in or close to that range with 9 different firms in action.
If the Cons win 200 seats then MRP after an underwhelming performance in 2019 can probably be ignored. If the Cons win 30% and get within 10% of Lab then we can just dump the polls altogether and all go buy crystal balls
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
Surely you are smarter than this? I am saying Senile Joe because I want someone capable of beating Trump. It is actually possible and usually desirable to state facts as one perceives them rather than as one would like them to be.
Do you think Joe is not senile?
"Senile" is arguable but he's certainly not up to running again or serving a 2nd term. Anyway, ok, so you'll be for Harris then, will you? If so, I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about those who'll just switch to saying she's "too woke" or "there because she's a black woman" or "slept her way to the top", you know, all of that nonsense that certain types of right wingers will doubtless come out with to make out it's a tough choice for America.
JOVAN OWUSU-Nepaul, the Labour party candidate who is standing in Clacton against Nigel Farage was left “broken”, in tears and “intimidated” after being told by party leaders being told to stop campaigning the constituency according to a member of his campaign team.
Tracy Lewis, a lifelong Labour voter who campaigned alongside Owusu-Nepaul resigned in fury from the Clacton Labour party after the party’s demand that Owusu-Nepaul “never come back” to constituency as first reported in the Guardian.
JOVAN OWUSU-Nepaul, the Labour party candidate who is standing in Clacton against Nigel Farage was left “broken”, in tears and “intimidated” after being told by party leaders being told to stop campaigning the constituency according to a member of his campaign team.
Tracy Lewis, a lifelong Labour voter who campaigned alongside Owusu-Nepaul resigned in fury from the Clacton Labour party after the party’s demand that Owusu-Nepaul “never come back” to constituency as first reported in the Guardian.
Labour snowflakes. Do they want to see Farage win?
I wonder why there is such disbelief on here this evening. The polls have been showing a huge Labour victory and the Lib Dem’s and the Tories being neck and neck for second place all the way through. Why are people surprised nothing has changed? The polls may be wrong of course, but pretending this is somehow a surprise is strange. It is just more of the same.
Normalcy bias
Well that´s a bit glib. ;-)
There are several problems, not least the age of the data and the contrast with the headline poll numbers and trends. There is also the very narrow gap in several constituencies which makes for quite wide margins for error in seat number forecasts. The MRP methods are also rather untested, so it is hard to see if there is any systematic bias in the stratification.
Yes Labour are going to win big. However the questions remains open as to how the seats break between Tory and Lib Dem. That is where several of these polls are going to stand or fall. It would be easier if the Tories were in free fall, but so far the evidence is that they may have found a floor. The question is with tactical voting, targetting and local swing, is that floor 140 or 50.
Survation says closer to 50, It is brave call, but if it is accurate then MRP is vindicated.
But FPTP would be totally discredited when if gets 75% of the seats on 40% of the vote. the Tories are third in seats, despite coming second in votes, the Lib Dems are second is seats but fourth in votes, and RefUk gets 16% and not much to show for it.
The voting system is basically indefensible on these numbers. Would SKS have the courage to take that bull by the horns?
The FPTP voting system is defensible, but it takes subtler stuff than maths to do it. FWIW the only desirable change is to employ AV, so that newbies can build a base and there doesn't have to be 'wasted vote' syndrome. (However we said no recently).
FPTP is generally great. To form a government you have to come first in 325/6 races out of 650 and in every race everyone is allowed to do everything they can to beat you in an ungloved cage fight. You have to be organised and you have to be good. You have to be better than the best of the rest. And it is hugely enjoyable.
And if we feel like it we can suddenly, on a whim, say 'There's no such thing as a safe Tory seat'. And we do.
JOVAN OWUSU-Nepaul, the Labour party candidate who is standing in Clacton against Nigel Farage was left “broken”, in tears and “intimidated” after being told by party leaders being told to stop campaigning the constituency according to a member of his campaign team.
Tracy Lewis, a lifelong Labour voter who campaigned alongside Owusu-Nepaul resigned in fury from the Clacton Labour party after the party’s demand that Owusu-Nepaul “never come back” to constituency as first reported in the Guardian.
Didn't he make some rather dodgy comments?
His favourite drink is "white tears" or something. More juvenile than actually racist, but yes.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
That is a curious definition of 'getting better'. "Not getting worse as quickly" is another possible phrasing.
It was put to me by a noted, and super left wing economist, that he saw why Rishi called the election when he did - precisely because some of the economic aggregates were ticking up. Interest rates was the big one that didn't improve/signal better at that particular time, but they have since.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
Most of the folk I talk to are more on the "A year or two ago I could afford X. Now I can't." I'm not sure showing them a graph of economic aggregates ticking up would make them think "w00t!". Most of them can only dream of even getting a mortgage so just have to hope their rent doesn't go up so much they have to cut back on food.
I wonder why there is such disbelief on here this evening. The polls have been showing a huge Labour victory and the Lib Dem’s and the Tories being neck and neck for second place all the way through. Why are people surprised nothing has changed? The polls may be wrong of course, but pretending this is somehow a surprise is strange. It is just more of the same.
Normalcy bias
Well that´s a bit glib. ;-)
There are several problems, not least the age of the data and the contrast with the headline poll numbers and trends. There is also the very narrow gap in several constituencies which makes for quite wide margins for error in seat number forecasts. The MRP methods are also rather untested, so it is hard to see if there is any systematic bias in the stratification.
Yes Labour are going to win big. However the questions remains open as to how the seats break between Tory and Lib Dem. That is where several of these polls are going to stand or fall. It would be easier if the Tories were in free fall, but so far the evidence is that they may have found a floor. The question is with tactical voting, targetting and local swing, is that floor 140 or 50.
Survation says closer to 50, It is brave call, but if it is accurate then MRP is vindicated.
But FPTP would be totally discredited when if gets 75% of the seats on 40% of the vote. the Tories are third in seats, despite coming second in votes, the Lib Dems are second is seats but fourth in votes, and RefUk gets 16% and not much to show for it.
The voting system is basically indefensible on these numbers. Would SKS have the courage to take that bull by the horns?
FPTP has been discredited for the last 50 years. It produces hugely unrepresentative outcomes and always has. It also forces people to vote for things they don’t really want but are ‘not as bad’ as the alternative. Why is it that just because the system might, in this one election, have turned against its architects they are suddenly going on about how unfair and unjust it is as if we did not already know.
PB’ers will be pleased to know that HY has come out in favour of PR on ConHome.
Well it would be to the advantage of his party of choice these days- Plaid Cymru.
JOVAN OWUSU-Nepaul, the Labour party candidate who is standing in Clacton against Nigel Farage was left “broken”, in tears and “intimidated” after being told by party leaders being told to stop campaigning the constituency according to a member of his campaign team.
Tracy Lewis, a lifelong Labour voter who campaigned alongside Owusu-Nepaul resigned in fury from the Clacton Labour party after the party’s demand that Owusu-Nepaul “never come back” to constituency as first reported in the Guardian.
Didn't he make some rather dodgy comments?
His favourite drink is "white tears" or something. More juvenile than actually racist, but yes.
If you make comments like that, you can't really then start turning the water works on with the woe is me stuff.
JOVAN OWUSU-Nepaul, the Labour party candidate who is standing in Clacton against Nigel Farage was left “broken”, in tears and “intimidated” after being told by party leaders being told to stop campaigning the constituency according to a member of his campaign team.
Tracy Lewis, a lifelong Labour voter who campaigned alongside Owusu-Nepaul resigned in fury from the Clacton Labour party after the party’s demand that Owusu-Nepaul “never come back” to constituency as first reported in the Guardian.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
Plenty of people were hurting in 1997 as well - but perhaps different groups.
Oldies are much better off, young graduates much worse off, young non-graduates class better off in the north but worse off in the south.
Generally speaking of course and with lots of individual exceptions.
I wonder how PBers are financially compared with 1997 ?
I'm certainly far, far better off but is that because of governments, my own efforts or merely the natural progress through time.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
That is a curious definition of 'getting better'. "Not getting worse as quickly" is another possible phrasing.
It was put to me by a noted, and super left wing economist, that he saw why Rishi called the election when he did - precisely because some of the economic aggregates were ticking up. Interest rates was the big one that didn't improve/signal better at that particular time, but they have since.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
Most of the folk I talk to are more on the "A year or two ago I could afford X. Now I can't." I'm not sure showing them a graph of economic aggregates ticking up would make them think "w00t!". Most of them can only dream of even getting a mortgage so just have to hope their rent doesn't go up so much they have to cut back on food.
Fair enough. What bit of the economy do they think the Cons have mismanaged such that things are more expensive.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
That is a curious definition of 'getting better'. "Not getting worse as quickly" is another possible phrasing.
It was put to me by a noted, and super left wing economist, that he saw why Rishi called the election when he did - precisely because some of the economic aggregates were ticking up. Interest rates was the big one that didn't improve/signal better at that particular time, but they have since.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
A rise in inflation in the next few months is pretty much baked into the figures already, and if you look more closely things like inflation in service sector is still very high. But then after day 1, nobody has talked about inflation at 2% anyway, because it doesn't work like that in the real world. We have had 2 years of high inflation, way above wage growth. It takes time for people to feel changes.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
At these numbers, do the official opposition have enough members to fill all the posts?
The LDs show the way, you only need a dozen to fill out necessary posts in opposition, the rest is just titles for titles sake to look important.
And if necessary you plug lots of gaps in the more junior positions with peers.
Anyway, the importance of the Opposition in the Commons to any Government with a substantial majority is overstated. So long as the Prime Minister avoids major rebellions, he can do what he likes.
You need about 120-130 MPs to run a full opposition from the commons, shadowing every minister plus whips, a deputy speaker, and a few ctte chairs. But that would be very tight, since there's always a number who would be better kept on the backbenches (likely to grow over the course of a parliament as people become disaffected etc).
So, on current polling, it seems very likely that the role of opposition will have to be slimmed down compared to what we've been used to in recent decades.
Sussex Weald also goes Labour, which I can't believe. Also Kingswinford and South Staffs, one of the safest Tory seats in the country.
Why hard to believe? Nus Ghani got 60% last time. The Conservatives are polling half their 2019 total. She's going to struggle to retain the seat on 30% of the vote
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
Survation thinks every seat in Scotland's Central Belt will go Labour, except Edinburgh West that is already Lib Dem. Not a single SNP MP.
That might be the most remarkable prediction of all.
John Duncan 🇺🇦 @livvyjohn After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
At these numbers, do the official opposition have enough members to fill all the posts?
The LDs show the way, you only need a dozen to fill out necessary posts in opposition, the rest is just titles for titles sake to look important.
And if necessary you plug lots of gaps in the more junior positions with peers.
Anyway, the importance of the Opposition in the Commons to any Government with a substantial majority is overstated. So long as the Prime Minister avoids major rebellions, he can do what he likes.
You need about 120-130 MPs to run a full opposition from the commons, shadowing every minister plus whips, a deputy speaker, and a few ctte chairs. But that would be very tight, since there's always a number who would be better kept on the backbenches (likely to grow over the course of a parliament as people become disaffected etc).
So, on current polling, it seems very likely that the role of opposition will have to be slimmed down compared to what we've been used to in recent decades.
On the Survation numbers they basically all need to band together to form an Opposition of National Unity.
Survation is showing the Greens taking West Worcestershire, but not Bristol Central, Waveney Valley or indeed North Herefordshire. That's... unexpected.
That is bad news for my book. What is Green about West Worcestershire that isn't Green about Brizzle Middle?
Survation thinks every seat in Scotland's Central Belt will go Labour, except Edinburgh West that is already Lib Dem. Not a single SNP MP.
That might be the most remarkable prediction of all.
John Duncan 🇺🇦 @livvyjohn After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
Why can't Survation add up? I had consierable difficulty locating the share of the vote percentages from Survation's latest poll and when eventually I did so, they totalled only 98% I accept the "missing" 2% may have resulted from rounding differences, but clearly other pollsters somehow overcome this problem. Baxterising the figures as they stand produces slightly but important seat total differences. For example, the Tories and LibDems finish on precisely the same total of 68 seats. The polling industry faces an ewnormous challenge in this election. To have any real credibility, I believe they should be within 15%-20% of ultimately forecasting the correct number of seats won by eack of the 3 main parties and within 30%-50% of the correct in respect of the smaller parties. Frankly if they can't hit such targets consistently, they could be considered to be something of a waste of time and money.
Survation is showing the Greens taking West Worcestershire, but not Bristol Central, Waveney Valley or indeed North Herefordshire. That's... unexpected.
That is bad news for my book. What is Green about West Worcestershire that isn't Green about Brizzle Middle?
Malvern Hills DC has the Greens as minority coalition partners, together with the usual Marches flavour of Independents. (Ok, I know counting the Malverns as Marches is pushing it. But you know what I mean.)
But getting from there to a GE gain is a very long shot and I don't see it. Especially because if you're a Green activist there you'll presumably be campaigning either in North Herefordshire, or even a few miles down the road in Worcester where a decent third is quite possible.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
I think that's nonsense really. There are so many missteps that aren't anything to do with Brexit that have caused the Tories demise. Boris doesn't party, the Tories were still polling fine. He is still vastly flawed, probably ends up with a hung parliaments. Then they pick Truss, who goes for mental approach out the gate and Ratners Tory brand for at least doing economic management ok, then they go for Sunak, who is far worse than anybody expected.
Also the high inflation, leads to high interest rates, which leads to expensive mortgages (and rent increases). You are fucked when that happens. No COVID, no Ukraine, and we don't get the absolute shell shock of crazy money printing to fund that.
Even now, he runs a half decent campaign from the start, Farage doesn't appear, the Tories probably get over 30%. Instead they went absolute mental bullshit stuff and Farage saw an opportunity.
It is what I love about the English language is the sheer number of words and phrases which means none of us know every word/phrase and it brings joy when we learn a new word/phrase.
Follow this lady and you won't regret it.
Word of the day is 'ultra-crepidate' (19th century): to comment at length on a subject you know virtually nothing about.
I think in all the trivial questions about polls, betting and even who is going to form the next government the real important issue is being missed. Have we ever had a LOTO who is known to bungee jump, fall off a paddle board and ride a roller coaster? Certainly PMQs would be more interesting.
The upside for Davey, who was prior to the campaign seen as another anonymous grey eminence along with Starmer, is that he has got his personality and life story across and that will stick with him whether the result is merely decent, or amazing, which appears to be the range. If they can secure at least the third party spot, that will see him well for the remainder of his leadership.
The downside for the party is that the ability to catch public attention through imaginative stunts is probably a trick with diminishing returns, and if the party doesn’t recover a higher national profile from the election, the next leader will have to think of something else.
The good thing is there will be more MPs to draw contributions from.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
That is a curious definition of 'getting better'. "Not getting worse as quickly" is another possible phrasing.
It was put to me by a noted, and super left wing economist, that he saw why Rishi called the election when he did - precisely because some of the economic aggregates were ticking up. Interest rates was the big one that didn't improve/signal better at that particular time, but they have since.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
Most of the folk I talk to are more on the "A year or two ago I could afford X. Now I can't." I'm not sure showing them a graph of economic aggregates ticking up would make them think "w00t!". Most of them can only dream of even getting a mortgage so just have to hope their rent doesn't go up so much they have to cut back on food.
And many of those folk are exaggerating.
They notice something has increased significantly in price, say by 60%, they think its has doubled in price, they then think everything has doubled in price and then they claim their earnings haven't increased either.
The big determinant in spending ability is how housing costs has varied.
That has certainly hit many people hard and those people deserve sympathy.
But many of those complaining the loudest have been the beneficiaries of a dozen years of ZIRP.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
oh God
Yesterday's version just had the Blue and Yellow halves comparing their identical claims against each other. I couldn't resist converting it to ramp this new MRP.
Does explain a lot though about today's SNP pleading for votes. The Tories are also pleading - with Reform who I think could take several thousand votes minimum off DRoss.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
I think that's nonsense really. There are so many missteps that aren't anything to do with Brexit that have caused the Tories demise. Boris doesn't party, the Tories were still polling fine. Then they pick Truss, who goes for mental approach out the gate and ratners Tory brand for at least doing economic management ok, then they go for Sunak, who is far worse than anybody expected.
Even now, he runs a half decent campaign from the start, Farage doesn't appear, the Tories probably get over 30%. Instead they went absolute mental bullshit stuff and Farage saw an opportunity.
But without Brexit, Johnson would never have got to the top. And the rest is history.
Plus, Brexit built them an unstable coalition that was never going to hang together, and drove a wedge between the Tories and their traditional educated, middle class, business-friendly base which, with luck, is about to lose them a shedload of seats in the Home Counties. Without Brexit, do you really think we’d even be talking about the LibDems sweeping Surrey, or Labour having a long shot chance in Wealden?
A senior Dem has gone public. It's feels like it's on that frontier where rumour breaks quite quickly into fact.
I hope so anyway.
You’re right. The fact that Hunter “convicted crackhead” Biden has now joined the tight team of aides advising the demented President feels like the last surreal scene of this tragic farce - the unbelievable denouement that is nonetheless real
Removes your cover for Trump support, doesn't it. Looking forward to how you adjust the bullshit delivery technique to keep it going.
lol. You’re a clown. If Kamala gets the gig I will favour her to win over Trump
Sorry to disappoint you
That wouldn't disappoint me. Quite the opposite. In fact, if you support Kamala vs Trump I don't even mind you voting Labour.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
Correct except that it is the casualty not of Brexit but of successive UK governments' failure to consult the people by referenda as we went along and the creation of an EU which the people of the UK wish, to this day, to neither join nor leave. It is the stuff of tragedy and a hopeless failure of statecraft.
To be fair, the spelling appears to be American in origin. When I was editing magazines 10ish years ago we had the "standfirst" and then the "intro". You'd sometimes hear "lead para", but I genuinely never came across "lede" in 25 years of writing the things.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
Is there an elephant conspicuously absent from the room you describe? Who is this Bailey guy anyway?
Ian B posts on this very forum.
But not me. Many years ago, the site told me that IanB was taken, so I joined up with the 2. Maybe Mr Bailey got there first, but if he did, I never saw him using the tag here.
Not me sir. I Never use my name on public forums. Though have rather obviously doxxed myself all over this fine forum.
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
I don't like to say I told you so, but...
I have been saying since 2016 that Brexit is the toxin that was killing the Conservative and Unionist Party
And now even the Telegraph has worked it out (Some PBers are slower on the uptake)
From the FT: As Tories stare into the electoral abyss, facing dissent, doom-laden opinion polls and now the return of Nigel Farage as leader of the nativist Reform UK to further drain their support, the more reflective among them will be forced to acknowledge a simple truth. The Conservative party has become the last casualty of Brexit.
I think that's nonsense really. There are so many missteps that aren't anything to do with Brexit that have caused the Tories demise. Boris doesn't party, the Tories were still polling fine. Then they pick Truss, who goes for mental approach out the gate and ratners Tory brand for at least doing economic management ok, then they go for Sunak, who is far worse than anybody expected.
Even now, he runs a half decent campaign from the start, Farage doesn't appear, the Tories probably get over 30%. Instead they went absolute mental bullshit stuff and Farage saw an opportunity.
But without Brexit, Johnson would never have got to the top. And the rest is history.
Plus, Brexit built them an unstable coalition that was never going to hang together, and drove a wedge between the Tories and their traditional educated, middle class, business-friendly base which, with luck, is about to lose them a shedload of seats in the Home Counties.
There is a lot of leaps there....I think it is true it has effected the Tory voter base etc, but I don't think you can go from 0 to 100 like that tweet. Its more complicated.
I also think we are seeing across Europe a fracturing of traditional voting coalitions. We are seeing ever bigger splits between rural and urban, the university educated and not. In the US, we have seen blue collar always voted Democrat union workers voting Trump, non-whites voting Trump etc.
Survation thinks every seat in Scotland's Central Belt will go Labour, except Edinburgh West that is already Lib Dem. Not a single SNP MP.
That might be the most remarkable prediction of all.
John Duncan 🇺🇦 @livvyjohn After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
Or they’re taking nothing for granted. Every election we indulge in speculation about politicians campaigning in very safe seats or very stretching targets and it always turns out to be nonsense.
The SNP and Tories are both going to be getting major swingback. They are the establishment in their two electorates and have loyal bases that spend years flirting with other parties only to return to the fold come the big election.
As others have pointed out Survation today is misleading because it’s an old poll and won’t we catching this week’s swingback.
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
Is there an elephant conspicuously absent from the room you describe? Who is this Bailey guy anyway?
Ian B posts on this very forum.
And Survation give him a very exact 0% chance of winning his seat. But the race is not always to the swift, and it's the taking part that counts....
I'm 66/1 - a long shot. But I can cite various examples of people who won with longer odds and from further back. In a chaos election all kinds of unexpected results happen.
That isn't me doing a Jo Swinson. I am realistic. But zero? There are no polls up here, and the models don't really adapt well to the LD/Con cat fight here in the NE, and certainly don't cope with one-off issue seats.
So I go off the observable actions of my competitors. Labour never got started - he was only ever a paper candidate and got kyboshed. Reform got kyboshed and is campaigning in other NE seats and not here. Tories are desperately trying to appeal to their 2019 vote not to go to Reform or LD to stop the SNP. And the SNP are demanding fealty from Labour and LD voters to stop the Tories...
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Starmer has been this evening to Cannock Chase constituency.
Tory majority of 19,879
I haven't seen him.
However, a few points:
Cannock Chase and its predecessor seats have voted for the winning party in every election since 1964 except for 1992 when Labour narrowly won it;
That said, it has rapidly gentrified in the last 15 years due to large numbers of people moving out of Birmingham and even London in the hope of owning their own home in a place that isn't an overpriced and overcrowded shithole.
So it should be a prime target for Labour historically, but demography has been moving against them.
Even so, I would hesitate to call it a 'safe Tory seat.' Labour could - and should x have won it in 2015 had the then candidate Janos Toth not blown both his feet off by campaigning on Labour's record on the NHS...
Survation thinks every seat in Scotland's Central Belt will go Labour, except Edinburgh West that is already Lib Dem. Not a single SNP MP.
That might be the most remarkable prediction of all.
John Duncan 🇺🇦 @livvyjohn After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
Or they’re taking nothing for granted. Every election we indulge in speculation about politicians campaigning in very safe seats or very stretching targets and it always turns out to be nonsense.
The SNP and Tories are both going to be getting major swingback. They are the establishment in their two electorates and have loyal bases that spend years flirting with other parties only to return to the fold come the big election.
As others have pointed out Survation today is misleading because it’s an old poll and won’t we catching this week’s swingback.
The great advantage Labour have in Scotland is they are neither the Conservatives or SNP and are a plausible establishment alternative if you want to avoid either of those parties.
I think that normalcy bias can lead people astray when it comes to black swan events where there is precious little precedent in living memory.
But what we are talking about here is the population of the UK many of whom will suffer from normalcy bias and hence may well make the prophecy of a "more normal" result come true. Because with such a large population the scope for extreme events is vastly restricted.
Hence I stick by my guesstimate of Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
But don't take my word for it, there is a forthcoming poll shortly which will confirm/disprove my hypothesis.
The difference is much of the population is hurting financially in a way they werent in 1997.
That is very true. No one is listening but things are actually getting better. Inflation down, interest rates signalling down, growth improving, unemployment down...Rishi could go on. But people have also been hit with humungous new mortgage bills, many of them this year and recently, and everything is baseline more expensive than it was a few years ago. Neither are people prepared to listen to the 2x exogenous shock arguments.
I also understand the "Tories must be destroyed" vibe. But I don't think that will be the motivating factor for as many people as certainly PB believes. I think many people might ponder the certain tax rises and how that will affect their pockets and maybe even take a glance at those economic aggregates before they vote. But I appreciate this may make me the most ridiculous PB poster, come 10:00:00:576 on Thursday night.
That is a curious definition of 'getting better'. "Not getting worse as quickly" is another possible phrasing.
It was put to me by a noted, and super left wing economist, that he saw why Rishi called the election when he did - precisely because some of the economic aggregates were ticking up. Interest rates was the big one that didn't improve/signal better at that particular time, but they have since.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
if you have a mortgage you are hurting
Not all mortgage holders.
Anyone one took out a mortgage before 2010 should have been among the big winners since then.
I'll use my only photo of the day to show off my sort-of barchart, which I am now boosting the crap out of on Facebook.
Is there an elephant conspicuously absent from the room you describe? Who is this Bailey guy anyway?
Ian B posts on this very forum.
But not me. Many years ago, the site told me that IanB was taken, so I joined up with the 2. Maybe Mr Bailey got there first, but if he did, I never saw him using the tag here.
If so our PB Trumpers will have to come up with something other than "senile Joe!" as their figleaf for rooting for him.
How about 'useless Kamala who is only there for her identity rather than her ability'? Still preferable to Trump, obvs. And Biden, given his condition. But can they not find someone good? It's a nation of 300 million. They appear to be starting from the least suitable of all and working slowly upwards from there.
As if you have a clue about her.
Sorry, bit sharp, rephrase:
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
Of course, I don't know her personally! But all I've read about her is that the Dems have been trying to hide her away because she is, and I paraphrase, useless and everything she touches turns to shit and ahe polls very badly. And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people. I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability. But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.
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Mayor of H 8.8.45
According to wikipedia the party colour is Yellow, though I'd call it Orange.
Remember the Libs shock. They seemed a slam dunk to win hordes of seats based on the opinion polls. In fact they lost 5.
FPTP is generally great. To form a government you have to come first in 325/6 races out of 650 and in every race everyone is allowed to do everything they can to beat you in an ungloved cage fight. You have to be organised and you have to be good. You have to be better than the best of the rest. And it is hugely enjoyable.
And if we feel like it we can suddenly, on a whim, say 'There's no such thing as a safe Tory seat'. And we do.
Gladdening as I have 2 quid on RP at about 50000/1.
Not that anyone is listening to the economic aggregates and yes absolutely, if you have a mortgage you are hurting. And not that anyone is listening (2) but that can partially be explained by exogenous shocks.
JOVAN OWUSU-Nepaul, the Labour party candidate who is standing in Clacton against Nigel Farage was left “broken”, in tears and “intimidated” after being told by party leaders being told to stop campaigning the constituency according to a member of his campaign team.
Tracy Lewis, a lifelong Labour voter who campaigned alongside Owusu-Nepaul resigned in fury from the Clacton Labour party after the party’s demand that Owusu-Nepaul “never come back” to constituency as first reported in the Guardian.
But the race is not always to the swift, and it's the taking part that counts....
On VI the wizards are Opinium, Survation and Verian (ex-Kantar) who have been in the closest 4 in the last three GEs. Ipsos also have a good record. Everyone else either have to prove themselves or have to improve on their recent efforts.
I'll also suggest that the three above firms won't be herding because they don't need to. Survation, of course, got their fingers burned doing that in 2015! I think they are coinfident in their own methods.
MRPs are very different. Firms have so many different variables involved that they can and do vary wildly. We vary from Lab majorities of 382 (Savanta) and 318 (Survation) to 200 (YouGov) and 162 (MIC). Con seats from 53 (Savanta) or 64 (Survation) to 115 (Ipsos) and 155 (MIC). Its likely the result will be somewhere in or close to that range with 9 different firms in action.
If the Cons win 200 seats then MRP after an underwhelming performance in 2019 can probably be ignored. If the Cons win 30% and get within 10% of Lab then we can just dump the polls altogether and all go buy crystal balls
Oldies are much better off, young graduates much worse off, young non-graduates class better off in the north but worse off in the south.
Generally speaking of course and with lots of individual exceptions.
I wonder how PBers are financially compared with 1997 ?
I'm certainly far, far better off but is that because of governments, my own efforts or merely the natural progress through time.
So, on current polling, it seems very likely that the role of opposition will have to be slimmed down compared to what we've been used to in recent decades.
Nus Ghani got 60% last time. The Conservatives are polling half their 2019 total.
She's going to struggle to retain the seat on 30% of the vote
Dowden backs Atkins as potential new Tory leader
(Telegraph)
Feels a bit like Admiral Donitz getting the big job after you-know-who
@livvyjohn
After Falkirk yesterday (SNP majority 15,000), on the last sunday before polling day John Swinney is campaigning in North Ayrshire and Arran, a seat with an 11,000 majority. Blimey, their internal numbers must be grim indeed.
Sorry to disappoint you
I accept the "missing" 2% may have resulted from rounding differences, but clearly other pollsters somehow overcome this problem.
Baxterising the figures as they stand produces slightly but important seat total differences. For example, the Tories and LibDems finish on precisely the same total of 68 seats.
The polling industry faces an ewnormous challenge in this election. To have any real credibility, I believe they should be within 15%-20% of ultimately forecasting the correct number of seats won by eack of the 3 main parties and within 30%-50% of the correct in respect of the smaller parties. Frankly if they can't hit such targets consistently, they could be considered to be something of a waste of time and money.
But getting from there to a GE gain is a very long shot and I don't see it. Especially because if you're a Green activist there you'll presumably be campaigning either in North Herefordshire, or even a few miles down the road in Worcester where a decent third is quite possible.
Also the high inflation, leads to high interest rates, which leads to expensive mortgages (and rent increases). You are fucked when that happens. No COVID, no Ukraine, and we don't get the absolute shell shock of crazy money printing to fund that.
Even now, he runs a half decent campaign from the start, Farage doesn't appear, the Tories probably get over 30%. Instead they went absolute mental bullshit stuff and Farage saw an opportunity.
It is what I love about the English language is the sheer number of words and phrases which means none of us know every word/phrase and it brings joy when we learn a new word/phrase.
Follow this lady and you won't regret it.
Word of the day is 'ultra-crepidate' (19th century): to comment at length on a subject you know virtually nothing about.
https://x.com/susie_dent/status/1808064649578893589
On the language front, do the French has a word(s) for double entendre?
They notice something has increased significantly in price, say by 60%, they think its has doubled in price, they then think everything has doubled in price and then they claim their earnings haven't increased either.
The big determinant in spending ability is how housing costs has varied.
That has certainly hit many people hard and those people deserve sympathy.
But many of those complaining the loudest have been the beneficiaries of a dozen years of ZIRP.
Does explain a lot though about today's SNP pleading for votes. The Tories are also pleading - with Reform who I think could take several thousand votes minimum off DRoss.
Plus, Brexit built them an unstable coalition that was never going to hang together, and drove a wedge between the Tories and their traditional educated, middle class, business-friendly base which, with luck, is about to lose them a shedload of seats in the Home Counties. Without Brexit, do you really think we’d even be talking about the LibDems sweeping Surrey, or Labour having a long shot chance in Wealden?
I have been saying since 2016 that Brexit is the toxin that was killing the Conservative and Unionist Party
And now even the Telegraph has worked it out (Some PBers are slower on the uptake)
I also think we are seeing across Europe a fracturing of traditional voting coalitions. We are seeing ever bigger splits between rural and urban, the university educated and not. In the US, we have seen blue collar always voted Democrat union workers voting Trump, non-whites voting Trump etc.
The SNP and Tories are both going to be getting major swingback. They are the establishment in their two electorates and have loyal bases that spend years flirting with other parties only to return to the fold come the big election.
As others have pointed out Survation today is misleading because it’s an old poll and won’t we catching this week’s swingback.
Where are you getting this very low opinion of Kamala Harris from?
@Cookie
Rumours swirling that Boris Johnson could appear at one of the PM's final rallies in London this evening...
👀
That isn't me doing a Jo Swinson. I am realistic. But zero? There are no polls up here, and the models don't really adapt well to the LD/Con cat fight here in the NE, and certainly don't cope with one-off issue seats.
So I go off the observable actions of my competitors. Labour never got started - he was only ever a paper candidate and got kyboshed. Reform got kyboshed and is campaigning in other NE seats and not here. Tories are desperately trying to appeal to their 2019 vote not to go to Reform or LD to stop the SNP. And the SNP are demanding fealty from Labour and LD voters to stop the Tories...
She seems ok-ish to me but apparently dumb as fuck
However, a few points:
Cannock Chase and its predecessor seats have voted for the winning party in every election since 1964 except for 1992 when Labour narrowly won it;
That said, it has rapidly gentrified in the last 15 years due to large numbers of people moving out of Birmingham and even London in the hope of owning their own home in a place that isn't an overpriced and overcrowded shithole.
So it should be a prime target for Labour historically, but demography has been moving against them.
Even so, I would hesitate to call it a 'safe Tory seat.' Labour could - and should x have won it in 2015 had the then candidate Janos Toth not blown both his feet off by campaigning on Labour's record on the NHS...
Glenn
Sandpit
You
Brooke
Ed
KitchCab
Darkage
Not all mortgage holders.
Anyone one took out a mortgage before 2010 should have been among the big winners since then.
That wont stop many complaining though.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/IanB
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And she has apparently let it be known tbat if ahe is not selected to succeed Biden it will be an insult to all black people.
I think it's fairly uncontroversial that she was chosen as veep for her identity rather than her ability.
But I concede this is a view based solely on UK media and I have not actually been to the USA since Obama's first term.