Definite signs of being an approximately normal human being, a rare and precious thing in the Tory party. Isn't she Nabavi's MP? Assume he'll still be voting for her.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
Yes in 1997 the final polls were correct for the tories but overestimated labour though this didnt help the tories much on the night.
I know she's not widely liked, but I've not seen anything from Kamala Harris to suggest she wouldn't be a better President than a mentally declining Biden or an incredibly concerning Trump.
Admittedly, there's probably around 100 million Americans that pass both those tests, but still.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
I wonder if the Sunak ‘supermajority’ stuff is actually becoming counterproductive, particularly in the yellow wall. It is pretty clear that the Tory party is in disarray. The only thing they are able to oppose at the moment is each other. There will be a bloodbath after the election and the recriminations will be long, difficult and leave the party unable to function. I think plenty of people have reached the stage where they are saying so what if the Tories are reduced to 3rd, 4th or even 5th place in parliament. The Lib Dem’s, Reform, the SNP even the Greens are much more aligned around what they believe than the Tories seem to be, so what does the country have to lose by not electing a single Tory MP? In the end if the country has decided politics is not working for the people one of the two parties of government will need to be eliminated for a new future to grow. If I was Starmer that would be what worried me most. Because the Labour Party needs the Tories. If the Tories do end up ripping themselves apart labour will probably follow.
Polls show 2019 Tories are somewhat wary of a Labour supermajority, Tories still polling 20-25% so will still win seats even in a Labour landslide and likely stay second
Bloody hell HY can we please not start normalising the totally meaningless American word “supermajority”? At least put inverted commas around it.
If Survation are right, we're already in hypermajority territory.
It would actually be BETTER for America if Biden was DEAD, and president, and wheeled into meetings like the necrotically preserved corpse of Jeremy Bentham in UCL, still marked as "present" in University Senate meetings
Because then you would know the actual decisions are surely being made by wise and physically breathing advisors, you would be nervous who is choosing them, but the evidence of 2020-24 is that they are sane...
Much worse is the idea that Biden is alive but mad, and at any moment, as his dementia worsens, he might leap from his commode and say BOMB MALAYSIA and everyone will have to agree, and off we go to WW3
Since there is no Joe Biden Cult of Personality, his cabinet will immediately invoke the 25 Amendment if Joe Biden says BOMB MALAYSIA. Technically the military are probably supposed to act immediately so the cabinet wouldn't have time to do that but as we saw in the final days of the Trump administration they are highly proficient at operational stalling.
I wonder if the Sunak ‘supermajority’ stuff is actually becoming counterproductive, particularly in the yellow wall. It is pretty clear that the Tory party is in disarray. The only thing they are able to oppose at the moment is each other. There will be a bloodbath after the election and the recriminations will be long, difficult and leave the party unable to function. I think plenty of people have reached the stage where they are saying so what if the Tories are reduced to 3rd, 4th or even 5th place in parliament. The Lib Dem’s, Reform, the SNP even the Greens are much more aligned around what they believe than the Tories seem to be, so what does the country have to lose by not electing a single Tory MP? In the end if the country has decided politics is not working for the people one of the two parties of government will need to be eliminated for a new future to grow. If I was Starmer that would be what worried me most. Because the Labour Party needs the Tories. If the Tories do end up ripping themselves apart labour will probably follow.
Polls show 2019 Tories are somewhat wary of a Labour supermajority, Tories still polling 20-25% so will still win seats even in a Labour landslide and likely stay second
Time will tell, we don’t have long to wait. My point was about the balance. The claim might scare a few back to the Tories and that might save a few seats. But the admission of the fact that the Tories are heading for catastrophic defeat might also persuade those where the choice is SNP, Lib Dem or Reform that voting Tory is pointless and they might as well have an MP from a different party. How is the prospect of a large Labour win going to persuade someone to elect a Tory not a Lib Dem MP in the southwest? As a strategy it seems to me, like everything else the Tories have done, to be poorly thought through.
It would actually be BETTER for America if Biden was DEAD, and president, and wheeled into meetings like the necrotically preserved corpse of Jeremy Bentham in UCL, still marked as "present" in University Senate meetings
Because then you would know the actual decisions are surely being made by wise and physically breathing advisors, you would be nervous who is choosing them, but the evidence of 2020-24 is that they are sane...
Much worse is the idea that Biden is alive but mad, and at any moment, as his dementia worsens, he might leap from his commode and say BOMB MALAYSIA and everyone will have to agree, and off we go to WW3
It would probably have been best for America if the January 6th mob had killed Mike Pence, ensuring that Trump was impeached, and therefore could not stand for President.
Disturbing, but true.
Or Pelosi which I think was also one of their aims. Just how low ranking a dead lawmaker could have been covered up as sighseeing that got out of hand?
It would actually be BETTER for America if Biden was DEAD, and president, and wheeled into meetings like the necrotically preserved corpse of Jeremy Bentham in UCL, still marked as "present" in University Senate meetings
Because then you would know the actual decisions are surely being made by wise and physically breathing advisors, you would be nervous who is choosing them, but the evidence of 2020-24 is that they are sane...
Much worse is the idea that Biden is alive but mad, and at any moment, as his dementia worsens, he might leap from his commode and say BOMB MALAYSIA and everyone will have to agree, and off we go to WW3
Since there is no Joe Biden Cult of Personality, his cabinet will immediately invoke the 25 Amendment if Joe Biden says BOMB MALAYSIA. Technically the military are probably supposed to act immediately so the cabinet wouldn't have time to do that but as we saw in the final days of the Trump administration they are highly proficient at operational stalling.
No they fucking won't because they haven't invoked the 25th YET even tho Biden is clearly unfit. Indeed we now have evidence of them hiding this for at least a year. Why should Jill "love the motorcades" Biden suddenly change her mind?
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
What are the rules about negative campaigning during the election? I don't mean one candidate setting out to slag off another candidate, but a group that has been specifically set up solely to oppose one candidate.
Today I got this rather bizarre leaflet through the door. Apparently I shouldn't vote for my Labour candidate because Gaza and also he's from down south.
It has the "promoted by" and so on stuff on it that you see on a normal electoral leaflet. Is this just operating as a "thing" not covered by any electoral laws at all (and hence the promoted by stuff irrelevant) or are there rules about this sort of thing, and if so what?
I appreciated the "colour" around this from @RochdalePioneers who I suggest we start calling Mr 66/1 now, just on offchance he wins and it can stick.
Nevertheless it didn't actually answer the question I asked so just gonna bump it on chance anyone knows. If not, I may try it again earlier tomorrow when soberer and sensible types with detailed knowledge of this sort of thing like @IanB2 know.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
Will a pollster put Labour under 35% in one of their Eve Of Poll polls tomorrow?
I wonder if the Sunak ‘supermajority’ stuff is actually becoming counterproductive, particularly in the yellow wall. It is pretty clear that the Tory party is in disarray. The only thing they are able to oppose at the moment is each other. There will be a bloodbath after the election and the recriminations will be long, difficult and leave the party unable to function. I think plenty of people have reached the stage where they are saying so what if the Tories are reduced to 3rd, 4th or even 5th place in parliament. The Lib Dem’s, Reform, the SNP even the Greens are much more aligned around what they believe than the Tories seem to be, so what does the country have to lose by not electing a single Tory MP? In the end if the country has decided politics is not working for the people one of the two parties of government will need to be eliminated for a new future to grow. If I was Starmer that would be what worried me most. Because the Labour Party needs the Tories. If the Tories do end up ripping themselves apart labour will probably follow.
Polls show 2019 Tories are somewhat wary of a Labour supermajority, Tories still polling 20-25% so will still win seats even in a Labour landslide and likely stay second
Bloody hell HY can we please not start normalising the totally meaningless American word “supermajority”? At least put inverted commas around it.
If Survation are right, we're already in hypermajority territory.
Tricky. I would go super-mega-hyper-ultra in that order of progression.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
What do you think the result is going to be? At least one of the William Glenns is decent at forecasting big elections. I’m trying to nail the Tory seats bracket and finding it fiendishly difficult.
(I am massively green on anything other than a Labour majority - emotional insurance).
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
Will a pollster put Labour under 35% in one of their Eve Of Poll polls tomorrow?
It's possible LAB might get 33 or 34% in a big poll to be conducted on Thursday. It will still be enough to give them a huge majority though.
It would actually be BETTER for America if Biden was DEAD, and president, and wheeled into meetings like the necrotically preserved corpse of Jeremy Bentham in UCL, still marked as "present" in University Senate meetings
Because then you would know the actual decisions are surely being made by wise and physically breathing advisors, you would be nervous who is choosing them, but the evidence of 2020-24 is that they are sane...
Much worse is the idea that Biden is alive but mad, and at any moment, as his dementia worsens, he might leap from his commode and say BOMB MALAYSIA and everyone will have to agree, and off we go to WW3
Since there is no Joe Biden Cult of Personality, his cabinet will immediately invoke the 25 Amendment if Joe Biden says BOMB MALAYSIA. Technically the military are probably supposed to act immediately so the cabinet wouldn't have time to do that but as we saw in the final days of the Trump administration they are highly proficient at operational stalling.
No they fucking won't because they haven't invoked the 25th YET even tho Biden is clearly unfit. Indeed we now have evidence of them hiding this for at least a year. Why should Jill "love the motorcades" Biden suddenly change her mind? Next
"Clearly unfit" here consists of sometimes losing his train of thought. The cabinet doesn't care if he does that, except to the extent that it's going to lose the election. That's not the kind of thing they need to invoke the 25 Amendment over. They'd invoke it if he started making reckless decisions or clearly didn't understand the decisions he was making, which as far as we know hasn't happened (and if it did somebody would leak it).
Jill Biden doesn't have a veto on the 25th Amendment.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
That Verian poll started 13 days later than tonight's Survation MRP started and finished the same day as Survation so may pick up more of a decline in the Labour vote. Also has Reform and LDs higher than Survation
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
What do you think the result is going to be? At least one of the William Glenns is decent at forecasting big elections. I’m trying to nail the Tory seats bracket and finding it fiendishly difficult.
(I am massively green on anything other than a Labour majority - emotional insurance).
I'm not really sure but I'd go with something like this:
Worse for Labour in vote share than expected but still a big majority and better than expected for the Lib Dems. Tory seats above 100.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
Fair enough. I draw the line at Demented Joe. I think he is ALSO a clear and present danger to American democracy and, worse, a danger to the western world - far more than Trump. If Biden is re-elected despite being obviously incapable - that is when Xi will pounce on Taiwan
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
Don't you think they should have brought the documents case? If anyone else had taken highly sensitive documents, refused to give them back, lied about what they'd got and stored them in a country club they would no longer have access to daylight.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
What do you think the result is going to be? At least one of the William Glenns is decent at forecasting big elections. I’m trying to nail the Tory seats bracket and finding it fiendishly difficult.
(I am massively green on anything other than a Labour majority - emotional insurance).
I'm not really sure but I'd go with something like this:
Worse for Labour in vote share than expected but still a big majority and better than expected for the Lib Dems. Tory seats above 100.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
What do you think the result is going to be? At least one of the William Glenns is decent at forecasting big elections. I’m trying to nail the Tory seats bracket and finding it fiendishly difficult.
(I am massively green on anything other than a Labour majority - emotional insurance).
I'm not really sure but I'd go with something like this:
Worse for Labour in vote share than expected but still a big majority and better than expected for the Lib Dems. Tory seats above 100.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
What do you think the result is going to be? At least one of the William Glenns is decent at forecasting big elections. I’m trying to nail the Tory seats bracket and finding it fiendishly difficult.
(I am massively green on anything other than a Labour majority - emotional insurance).
I'm not really sure but I'd go with something like this:
Worse for Labour in vote share than expected but still a big majority and better than expected for the Lib Dems. Tory seats above 100.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
A Labour slide feels correct to me. They haven't given people many positive reasons to vote for them but have given some people a reason not to.
In fact I would go with OGH's golden rule to take the worst polling figure for Labour as being the most accurate.
What do you think the result is going to be? At least one of the William Glenns is decent at forecasting big elections. I’m trying to nail the Tory seats bracket and finding it fiendishly difficult.
(I am massively green on anything other than a Labour majority - emotional insurance).
I'm not really sure but I'd go with something like this:
Worse for Labour in vote share than expected but still a big majority and better than expected for the Lib Dems. Tory seats above 100.
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
Don't you think they should have brought the documents case? If anyone else had taken highly sensitive documents, refused to give them back, lied about what they'd got and stored them in a country club they would no longer have access to daylight.
The documents case is more about obstruction than documents, of course. But - candidly - you should only ever bring the strongest cases. And "had some documents he shouldn't" looks political, even though it is an example of Trump's belief he is above the law.
Great spot from Andy - I hadn't noticed this. Survation have adjusted for mortality.
Wonder if this might have something to do with why Survation's MRP had the combined Reform + Con vote (35%) lower than most polls have it (~37-38% or so).
Predictions from the model are post-stratified using a post-stratification frame which is built on the most recent census data (2021 for England and Wales, 2011 for Scotland). Past vote was imputed and then adjusted to match notional 2019 results for each constituency. We applied mortality adjustments to the post-stratification frame to account for differential mortality between supporters of different parties who vary in their average age.
Does this explain why Survation differs to other pollsters?
Do other pollsters do this too?
Seems to me - since Dec 2019 it's been 4.5 years, and we've had COVID. The vast majority of those aged 70+ in Dec 2019 voted Tory. If other pollsters don't account for this it could be a big reason for poll disparities?
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
Fair enough. I draw the line at Demented Joe. I think he is ALSO a clear and present danger to American democracy and, worse, a danger to the western world - far more than Trump. If Biden is re-elected despite being obviously incapable - that is when Xi will pounce on Taiwan
I get the impression you are desperate for someone to worship.
Xi isnt pouncing on Taiwan in a hurry because the Chinese military has a limited ability to launch maritime based expeditionary warfare, even over a short distance and, as it stands, the Chinese military know that, which is why its still trying to build that capacity up.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
Fair enough. I draw the line at Demented Joe. I think he is ALSO a clear and present danger to American democracy and, worse, a danger to the western world - far more than Trump. If Biden is re-elected despite being obviously incapable - that is when Xi will pounce on Taiwan
I get the impression you are desperate for someone to worship.
Xi isnt pouncing on Taiwan in a hurry because the Chinese military has a limited ability to launch maritime based expeditionary warfare, even over a short distance and, as it stands, the Chinese military know that, which is why its still trying to build that capacity up.
An amphibious assault on Taiwan would make Russia's invasion of Ukraine look like a walk in the park.
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
Don't you think they should have brought the documents case? If anyone else had taken highly sensitive documents, refused to give them back, lied about what they'd got and stored them in a country club they would no longer have access to daylight.
The documents case is more about obstruction than documents, of course. But - candidly - you should only ever bring the strongest cases. And "had some documents he shouldn't" looks political, even though it is an example of Trump's belief he is above the law.
I think the documents case was the most slam-dunk of all of them (apart from the fact that got lumbered with a hack judge). It's very simple and very clearly criminal. I also think "took top-secret documents, stored them in a country club bathroom and refused to give them back" is very simple to explain, even compared to the Fake Electors case where a lot of what he's doing is incitement and he's still in office when he's doing it.
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
Don't you think they should have brought the documents case? If anyone else had taken highly sensitive documents, refused to give them back, lied about what they'd got and stored them in a country club they would no longer have access to daylight.
The documents case is more about obstruction than documents, of course. But - candidly - you should only ever bring the strongest cases. And "had some documents he shouldn't" looks political, even though it is an example of Trump's belief he is above the law.
I think the documents case was the most slam-dunk of all of them (apart from the fact that got lumbered with a hack judge). It's very simple and very clearly criminal. I also think "took top-secret documents, stored them in a country club bathroom and refused to give them back" is very simple to explain, even compared to the Fake Electors case where a lot of what he's doing is incitement and he's still in office when he's doing it.
But once it landed on Judge Cannon's desk, it became dead in the water.
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
Don't you think they should have brought the documents case? If anyone else had taken highly sensitive documents, refused to give them back, lied about what they'd got and stored them in a country club they would no longer have access to daylight.
The documents case is more about obstruction than documents, of course. But - candidly - you should only ever bring the strongest cases. And "had some documents he shouldn't" looks political, even though it is an example of Trump's belief he is above the law.
Especially when Biden got pinged for something rather similar and let off with because he is goo goo.
Its not like with Trump there is a shortage of dodgy stuff.
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
Don't you think they should have brought the documents case? If anyone else had taken highly sensitive documents, refused to give them back, lied about what they'd got and stored them in a country club they would no longer have access to daylight.
The documents case is more about obstruction than documents, of course. But - candidly - you should only ever bring the strongest cases. And "had some documents he shouldn't" looks political, even though it is an example of Trump's belief he is above the law.
I think the documents case was the most slam-dunk of all of them (apart from the fact that got lumbered with a hack judge). It's very simple and very clearly criminal. I also think "took top-secret documents, stored them in a country club bathroom and refused to give them back" is very simple to explain, even compared to the Fake Electors case where a lot of what he's doing is incitement and he's still in office when he's doing it.
Yes, I think rcs1000 is being oddly obtuse on that one - when the details are looked at it's not only clear cut, but his behaviour ridiculous, and I think that would have worried him had it proceeded at pace. It's the most inexplicable case as he really did just need to hand the documents back, but he acts like a toddler about them. So it is actually a very strong case, in being easy to explain and prove, the delays have all been about legal theories and minor procedural matters.
Fuck me, Wurzel Gummidge has let himself go and hit the sauce pretty hard. Sad to see.
He is increasingly resembling that character it has to be said.
The guy is shambolic, an embarrassment. I remember Angela Rayner asking what would people think of her if she turned up having not even bothered to brush her hair and wearing a scruffy dress that didn’t fit her. But entitled poshos like Boris live by their own rules.
Fuck me, Wurzel Gummidge has let himself go and hit the sauce pretty hard. Sad to see.
He is increasingly resembling that character it has to be said.
The guy is shambolic, an embarrassment. I remember Angela Rayner asking what would people think of her if she turned up having not even bothered to brush her hair and wearing a scruffy dress that didn’t fit her. But entitled poshos like Boris live by their own rules.
David Cameron says his mother would tell Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson to "put on a proper suit"
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
This poll is moving nicely towards my forecast from 2 weeks ago.
Quick note on what’s coming from Survation tomorrow.
Good Morning Britain Poll 4/4: Tomorrow morning is the publication of our final telephone tracker poll for @gmb live on @itv from 6am (fieldwork ended yesterday).
Final Call: To make our standard final polling call on GB voting intention, we’ve continued to conduct telephone interviews, focusing efforts on England, Wales & Scotland as separate projects and then bringing those together for you after calling finishes at 9pm.
MRP Finally, we will review the final captured data, run the model and update seat estimates *if* the model is stable and also informative.
Well it looks like people who thought the Survation MRP was invalid because the data was too old will be satisfied later today!
Counted stakeboards again (different route): 16 LD, 0 Lab, 0 Con, 0 Green. But did see 5 Labour canvassers in a team, led by one (1) Nick Palmer.
Stopped for a brief an congenial chat, wished each other luck (both of us with crossed fingers, naturally), and continued on.
Definite LD gain imo.
It was nice to run into Andy! We had 10 canvassers out (two teams), but my best guess is that the Tories will come third in what would normally be a safe Tory seat.
Do you expect the Tories to hold any seats in Oxfordshire?
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
This poll is moving nicely towards my forecast from 2 weeks ago.
Weighting to the result of a near decade-old election (2016 referendum) which had a significant age gradient & relying on recalled vote when so much time has passed and public opinion has shifted is not a choice I would make.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
Fair enough. I draw the line at Demented Joe. I think he is ALSO a clear and present danger to American democracy and, worse, a danger to the western world - far more than Trump. If Biden is re-elected despite being obviously incapable - that is when Xi will pounce on Taiwan
The safest way for Taiwan to defend itself is to get nukes, Trump would not send US forces and carriers to defend it anymore than Biden would. Japan yes, S Korea yes, Taiwan no.
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
Fair enough. I draw the line at Demented Joe. I think he is ALSO a clear and present danger to American democracy and, worse, a danger to the western world - far more than Trump. If Biden is re-elected despite being obviously incapable - that is when Xi will pounce on Taiwan
The safest way for Taiwan to defend itself is to get nukes, Trump would not send US forces and carriers to defend it anymore than Biden would. Japan yes, S Korea yes, Taiwan no.
That's a notch or two up from English tanks on the Golden Mile.
Weighting to the result of a near decade-old election (2016 referendum) which had a significant age gradient & relying on recalled vote when so much time has passed and public opinion has shifted is not a choice I would make.
That does seem a bit of a suspect methodology...
That's very helpful.
If this turns out to be the most accurate it is essentially down to guesswork.
Does anyone believe a 318 seat Labour majority could really happen on Thursday? Just seems a bit high.
Could? Absolutely. My betting position will be best if it happens as I've been (mostly) on kick Tories in face for a while.
I don't think it will happen though. But only cause it's radio rental. Objectively most of the indicators are pointing to it other than that. And I'm happy with my position.
Does anyone believe a 318 seat Labour majority could really happen on Thursday? Just seems a bit high.
No. It is outlandish. By the way there are some bizarre results in their seat by seat predictions. Have Labour clinching Epping Forest and the Tories winning Sutton & Cheam.
I've not looked at them properly so I am in no way endorsing any of them but I do think there's a possibility there'll be an exciting mispricing there as they've probably been priced by junior staff. If anyone wants to have a looksie.
For example "Grant Shapps to Win Welwyn Hatfield & Labour to Win Henley and Thame" at 90/1 certainly SOUNDED like value to me. Until I remember it was the Lib Dems that were the challenger in the latter, not Labour. So a mugs bet.
Secondly, "Grant Shapps to Win Welwyn Hatfied, Conservative to Win St Albans & Labour Win Newcastle-under-Lyme & Sherwood Forest" at 80/1... well no chance of Tories winning St Albans but if they actually *were* in a position to then the other two results would probably be happening. So not totally insane but still looking at all the other odds combined yet another mugs bet.
Nevertheless there could well be something there. Quite a lot of the bets seem to involve Grant Shapps actually. Someone who's already known to enjoy get internet rich quick schemes. Just saying.
Don't believe this for a second. 87% of 18-24 year olds watching TV at all during a week doesn't ring true, never mind when wfh
Anyway I'm intensely relaxed about wasting a pile of time doing things working from home, as I am about my team. I care about results and certainly in my job as with many others it isn't the hours "working" that matter.
I did take this week off work though (as much as I am able, already got my phone being lit up by CEO for shite). Visiting nurseries and election. Couldn't possibly pretend to work on Thursday or Friday.
Don't believe this for a second. 87% of 18-24 year olds watching TV at all during a week doesn't ring true, never mind when wfh
Anyway I'm intensely relaxed about wasting a pile of time doing things working from home, as I am about my team. I care about results and certainly in my job as with many others it isn't the hours "working" that matter.
I did take this week off work though (as much as I am able, already got my phone being lit up by CEO for shite). Visiting nurseries and election. Couldn't possibly pretend to work on Thursday or Friday.
Watching YouTube, etc, and watching daytime TV are pretty much the same thing.
6.7 million postal votes returned so far, according to the Electoral Commission. Source = Radio 4 radio news.
Out of how many issued?
Not sure exactly but it says 25% vote by post these days. At the last election 32 million people voted altogether so 8 million, but turnout might be down slightly at this election. So maybe 6.7 million out of 7.5 million, or something like that.
Labour consistently sliding across pretty much all pollsters. More mixed picture for Lib Dem and Reform. LLG 56 isn’t that bad considering the Labour headline figure, but RefCon 37 is highish.
This poll is moving nicely towards my forecast from 2 weeks ago.
What was that?
Lab 37%, Con 25%, Ref 17%, LD 14%, Grn 5%. (Although after Farage's Putin comments I dropped Ref to 16% and put the other parties all up fractionally).
Don't believe this for a second. 87% of 18-24 year olds watching TV at all during a week doesn't ring true, never mind when wfh
Anyway I'm intensely relaxed about wasting a pile of time doing things working from home, as I am about my team. I care about results and certainly in my job as with many others it isn't the hours "working" that matter.
I did take this week off work though (as much as I am able, already got my phone being lit up by CEO for shite). Visiting nurseries and election. Couldn't possibly pretend to work on Thursday or Friday.
Watching YouTube, etc, and watching daytime TV are pretty much the same thing.
I disagree. My only real encounters with daytime TV are in medical waiting rooms and they're always about making less than the risk free rate of return trading crappy antiques. Now that Jeremy Kyle's gone anyway. He was awesome.
(I get that WFHers may be skiving and watching YouTube. But I don't believe it's that scale, at least in my industry. Indeed in my industry it's more likely to be a phenomena known as overemployed where miscreants take on a couple of jobs from different employers simultaneously (harder to do in the UK than certain other countries due to PAYE if not a contractor).
Still I genuinely don't care as long as the work is done..
This has the potential to derail a potential Kemi Badenoch leadership challenge.
"Around 2,600 postal votes have been sent out late by Uttlesford District Council due to human error, the council's chief executive has said. Chief executive Peter Holt told the BBC he was "mortified" but added that he believed most of the ballots would be returned in time for the general election. The blunder has left the council scrambling to deliver its postal votes to residents in the North West Essex constituency. The constituency area covers Writtle, Broomfield and the Walthams, Boreham and the Leighs and Chelmsford Rural West. Kemi Badenoch, the Secretary of State for Trade and Business, is standing for the seat against Labour candidate, Issy Waite and Liberal Democrat candidate Smita Rajesh. Holt told the BBC that if 50% or less of the delayed ballots were not counted in time, compared to some 75% of those dispatched the previous week, this could prompt a challenge from a losing candidate in a close result."
"Peter Holt, chief executive of Uttlesford District Council, spoke to BBC Essex on Friday morning. When asked why they didn’t go out he replied: “Human error our end. “Each constituency across the whole country, has been slightly changed in shape by the boundary commission and following that process, the quarter of the 80-odd thousands electors in this constituency who live in Chelmsford rather than the rest who live in Uttlesford, when we took those two lists and merged them together with our printers to send out the postal votes, just under thirteen thousands of those, the Chelmsford ones got subsumed underneath the rest the list and didn’t go out. “That’s just an unacceptable human error, I’m mortified, I take full responsibility for it and I cannot apologise too much but I am making sure what all my team are doing is catching up, is getting those out to people. "It is a big mess and I am not trying to gloss over that or minimise it.” When asked if he needs to consider his position he answered: “Honestly yes, but I am going to do that after the election day - because the last thing any of the voters in this constituency need between now and the election is fewer people with their hands to the pump fixing the issue. "That’s a very fair challenge and ask me that again after the election and that’s exactly what I am going to have to do."
I find it helps to have low-quality TV on for some kinds of work. If you're doing stuff where you have to wait for things, for example you have a long compilation step or you're waiting for chat responses, it's better to watch garbage TV for a minute until it's done than have your brain go searching for something more interesting on the internet, which is then harder to switch back from.
I find it helps to have low-quality TV on for some kinds of work. If you're doing stuff where you have to wait for things, for example you have a long compilation step or you're waiting for chat responses, it's better to watch garbage TV for a minute until it's done than have your brain go searching for something more interesting on the internet, which is then harder to switch back from.
The 'low-quality TV' bit was what I used to use PB for before/when I first came on here. Start a build or a test run, read PB for a bit, then wait for the results...
Here's a much more interesting question than @kinabalu's low IQ drivel
If you were American, and if the Democrats persist in forcing you to choose between the wanker Trump or the demented Biden, then which would you choose?
I have said many times I do NOT want Trump to win. But if given that stark choice, between D J Trump or an actually mad president, I would go for Trump, I reckon he is the lesser threat to American security and wider western interests. Trump is predictably vain, and will do his weird shit as he did in 2016-2020, but he won't go to war. An actually mad president like Biden might do - or allow - anything, and will also be seized upon by Xi and Putin
That's how bad a demented Biden is, Trump is actually better
Trump isn't sleepwalking us into WW3 like Biden so unless you actually live in the USA then the main impact of Trump47 is that he is considerably less warry than Biden and his handlers.
Yes, Exactly. If you're American and the choice is Demented Joe versus Fuckface Donald, then it's Donald all the way. Trump will do and say embarrassing things. and maybe persecute a few Democrats (just as they have jailed republicans like Steve Bannnon). Trump won't take shit from Vlad or Xi if it actually threatens America, whereas Crazy Joe might launch nukes against Greenland when he's wearing a nappy and then try and blow up Washington to distract everyone from Hunter's crack habit
If you're a Yank, you choose Trump
Wasn't Bannon convicted of setting up a charity to "Build the Wall", raising millions of dollars, and then spending it all on himself, and exactly none on the wall?
I mean, you can call that persecution if you like. But I suspect the more accurate phrase is "fraud".
Sure, but - nonetheless- combine it with some of the "reachier" law cases against Trump and you can see why the GOP might feel the law is being weaponised against them
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
The only case that should have been brought against Trump was the Fake Electors one. The problem is that it appears that attempting to rig an election is covered by Presidential Immunity.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
The documents case should absolutely have been brought. He stole America's war plans and nuclear secrets. And didn't even keep them secure. That he won't have been prosecuted on this matter before the election is down to a banana republic level of judicial cronyism. Cannon, as a Trump-appointed judge, should never have been allowed to take this trial. It is an utterly egregious conflict of interest. As has been amply demonstrated.
..that he had posed with a barbecued dog while on a trip to Korea...
Vanity Fair reporter Joe Hagen, who previously wrote a profile of Mr Kennedy for the magazine, said the photo was evidence of Mr Kennedy “simultaneously mocking Korean culture, reveling in animal cruelty, and needlessly risking his reputation and that of his family”.
Of all the nutty stuff around this bloke, this is one of the notable things....no wonder nobody wants to run for elected office, if you ever taken a photo ever about anything, somebody 20 years later might use it in a hit piece against you.
Hold on he spent 6-7 days at Camp David prepping for this....he couldn't have been more rested. And he only came back from Europe to the East coast, its hardly Australia to UK. I have done 48hr turn around on that sort of trip and you know still be able to actually speak...words....
Good morning all. I see that the late-night tories have been out in force, happily picking and choosing their favourite poll whilst ignoring all the others, and then fiddling around further with the figures to produce their more desired outcome. And then have the chutzpah to invoke Mike’s Golden Rule as if in support.
Meanwhile, jet lag can hit for at least two weeks especially the older you get. Not that I’d use this excuse for the debate performance.
Good morning all. I see that the late-night tories have been out in force, happily picking and choosing their favourite poll whilst ignoring all the others, and then fiddling around further with the figures to produce their more desired outcome. And then have the chutzpah to invoke Mike’s Golden Rule as if in support.
Meanwhile, jet lag can hit for at least two weeks especially the older you get. Not that I’d use this excuse for the debate performance.
If it has that effect on him he is ruled out. You can't be potus purely on zoom.
Do we know what opinion polls and MRPs are due today? I know that there’s the final IPSOS-MORI tomorrow morning in the Evening Standard but what pollster delights lie in store today please?
Good morning all. I see that the late-night tories have been out in force, happily picking and choosing their favourite poll whilst ignoring all the others, and then fiddling around further with the figures to produce their more desired outcome. And then have the chutzpah to invoke Mike’s Golden Rule as if in support.
Meanwhile, jet lag can hit for at least two weeks especially the older you get. Not that I’d use this excuse for the debate performance.
If it has that effect on him he is ruled out. You can't be potus purely on zoom.
We have gone from has a cold, to jet lag, ....about as believable as Trump defence he hasn't paid adult actresses to do the nasty with him.
Do we know what opinion polls and MRPs are due today? I know that there’s the final IPSOS-MORI tomorrow morning in the Evening Standard but what pollster delights lie in store today please?
More importantly what is the Unknown Stuntman's big finale....
I expect a Labour government. I always want one. I've been hoping for and confidently counting down the hours for 2 and a bit years. And now? I don't know how to feel. A little nervous. I'll be crushed if it doesn't happen. But I don't really know how I'll mark it. I have no great expectations of change. At least not soon. But not having to listen to Boris, Braverman, Truss, JRM, Sunak, the Telegraph and the Mail, and take them seriously, because they have the power to affect my life will be a relief and a weight lifted. Maybe I'd sleep for a week if I didn't have to work to pay my outrageous rent? I think perhaps that's how the 40% of the country voting Labour are feeling. Just fucking exhausted by your constant Tory drama about all kinds of shit that simply doesn't matter to folk who work hard and just want to have a bit left over to spend.
The guidelines from Starmer is that you should simply go to work as usual, but you are allowed an extra biscuit with your tea, by way of celebration. Just for Friday, obvs.
Do we know what opinion polls and MRPs are due today? I know that there’s the final IPSOS-MORI tomorrow morning in the Evening Standard but what pollster delights lie in store today please?
Comments
Kamala: Nom 24%, Pres 12%, ie 50% chance of winning if nominated
Biden: Nom 61%, Pres 15%, ie 24.6% chance of winning if nominated
https://x.com/Nus_Ghani/status/1808195385417929101
Admittedly, there's probably around 100 million Americans that pass both those tests, but still.
Trouble is, the Dems can say the same, SCOTUS is now acting as a cudgel brandished by the GOP
You live in America. If you were given the choice between Demented Joe and Fuckface Biden, which would you pick? (I do not envy your choice)
As a strategy it seems to me, like everything else the Tories have done, to be poorly thought through.
Just how low ranking a dead lawmaker could have been covered up as sighseeing that got out of hand?
Next question
Nevertheless it didn't actually answer the question I asked so just gonna bump it on chance anyone knows. If not, I may try it again earlier tomorrow when soberer and sensible types with detailed knowledge of this sort of thing like @IanB2 know.
(I am massively green on anything other than a Labour majority - emotional insurance).
Jill Biden doesn't have a veto on the 25th Amendment.
The other problem is that prosecutors in the US are elected. How do you stop it being in the interests of the New York Attorney General's political career to prosecute Donald Trump?
Well, my first choice would be a Democratic candidate without dementia, say that nice Mr Buttigieg or Ossoff or Whitmer. How they are currently polling is irrelevant, as they would get a good bump from being alive and able to speak without slurring.
If I can't get that, I'll take Harris.
And failing that Joe.
And last of all Donald Trump. Because I believe he is a clear and present danger to US democracy.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/28919841/boris-johnson-labour-starmergeddon-keir-starmer-rishi-sunak/
Worse for Labour in vote share than expected but still a big majority and better than expected for the Lib Dems. Tory seats above 100.
LAB: 34%
CON: 23%
RFM: 17%
LDM: 16%
GRN: 5%
SNP: 3%
https://x.com/BidenHQ/status/1808270449609953524
Great spot from Andy - I hadn't noticed this. Survation have adjusted for mortality.
Wonder if this might have something to do with why Survation's MRP had the combined Reform + Con vote (35%) lower than most polls have it (~37-38% or so).
Predictions from the model are post-stratified using a post-stratification frame which is built on the most recent census data (2021 for England and Wales, 2011 for Scotland). Past vote was imputed and then adjusted to match notional 2019 results for each constituency. We applied mortality adjustments to the post-stratification frame to account for differential mortality between supporters of different parties who vary in their average age.
Does this explain why Survation differs to other pollsters?
Do other pollsters do this too?
Seems to me - since Dec 2019 it's been 4.5 years, and we've had COVID. The vast majority of those aged 70+ in Dec 2019 voted Tory. If other pollsters don't account for this it could be a big reason for poll disparities?
Xi isnt pouncing on Taiwan in a hurry because the Chinese military has a limited ability to launch maritime based expeditionary warfare, even over a short distance and, as it stands, the Chinese military know that, which is why its still trying to build that capacity up.
Its not like with Trump there is a shortage of dodgy stuff.
Jeremy CorbynBoris Johnson to "put on a proper suit"Quick note on what’s coming from Survation tomorrow.
Good Morning Britain Poll 4/4:
Tomorrow morning is the publication of our final telephone tracker poll for @gmb live on @itv from 6am (fieldwork ended yesterday).
Final Call:
To make our standard final polling call on GB voting intention, we’ve continued to conduct telephone interviews, focusing efforts on England, Wales & Scotland as separate projects and then bringing those together for you after calling finishes at 9pm.
MRP
Finally, we will review the final captured data, run the model and update seat estimates *if* the model is stable and also informative.
Well it looks like people who thought the Survation MRP was invalid because the data was too old will be satisfied later today!
https://x.com/patrickjfl/status/1808266690116882696?s=46
Weighting to the result of a near decade-old election (2016 referendum) which had a significant age gradient & relying on recalled vote when so much time has passed and public opinion has shifted is not a choice I would make.
That does seem a bit of a suspect methodology...
If this turns out to be the most accurate it is essentially down to guesswork.
https://x.com/ballotboxscot/status/1808282454643339520
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-puts-snp-ahead-of-labour-on-eve-of-election-as-battle-becomes-significantly-closer-4688415
I don't think it will happen though. But only cause it's radio rental. Objectively most of the indicators are pointing to it other than that. And I'm happy with my position.
There is a "WhatOddsPaddy" thing where Paddy Power lay custom bets. You can see the politics ones here:
https://www.paddypower.com/politics
I've not looked at them properly so I am in no way endorsing any of them but I do think there's a possibility there'll be an exciting mispricing there as they've probably been priced by junior staff. If anyone wants to have a looksie.
For example "Grant Shapps to Win Welwyn Hatfield & Labour to Win Henley and Thame" at 90/1 certainly SOUNDED like value to me. Until I remember it was the Lib Dems that were the challenger in the latter, not Labour. So a mugs bet.
Secondly, "Grant Shapps to Win Welwyn Hatfied, Conservative to Win St Albans & Labour Win Newcastle-under-Lyme & Sherwood Forest" at 80/1... well no chance of Tories winning St Albans but if they actually *were* in a position to then the other two results would probably be happening. So not totally insane but still looking at all the other odds combined yet another mugs bet.
Nevertheless there could well be something there. Quite a lot of the bets seem to involve Grant Shapps actually. Someone who's already known to enjoy get internet rich quick schemes. Just saying.
Four in five admit to watching daytime TV while working from home. The average worker spends two hours and one minute each day watching the box
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/02/four-in-five-admit-watching-daytime-tv-working-from-home/
Anyway I'm intensely relaxed about wasting a pile of time doing things working from home, as I am about my team. I care about results and certainly in my job as with many others it isn't the hours "working" that matter.
I did take this week off work though (as much as I am able, already got my phone being lit up by CEO for shite). Visiting nurseries and election. Couldn't possibly pretend to work on Thursday or Friday.
https://x.com/joebiden/status/1808217098105028767
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpwdlg079z2o
(I get that WFHers may be skiving and watching YouTube. But I don't believe it's that scale, at least in my industry. Indeed in my industry it's more likely to be a phenomena known as overemployed where miscreants take on a couple of jobs from different employers simultaneously (harder to do in the UK than certain other countries due to PAYE if not a contractor).
Still I genuinely don't care as long as the work is done..
"Around 2,600 postal votes have been sent out late by Uttlesford District Council due to human error, the council's chief executive has said. Chief executive Peter Holt told the BBC he was "mortified" but added that he believed most of the ballots would be returned in time for the general election. The blunder has left the council scrambling to deliver its postal votes to residents in the North West Essex constituency. The constituency area covers Writtle, Broomfield and the Walthams, Boreham and the Leighs and Chelmsford Rural West. Kemi Badenoch, the Secretary of State for Trade and Business, is standing for the seat against Labour candidate, Issy Waite and Liberal Democrat candidate Smita Rajesh. Holt told the BBC that if 50% or less of the delayed ballots were not counted in time, compared to some 75% of those dispatched the previous week, this could prompt a challenge from a losing candidate in a close result."
https://www.localgovernmentlawyer.co.uk/governance/396-governance-news/57811-essex-council-scrambles-to-send-out-postal-votes-after-delay
More on this:
"Peter Holt, chief executive of Uttlesford District Council, spoke to BBC Essex on Friday morning. When asked why they didn’t go out he replied: “Human error our end. “Each constituency across the whole country, has been slightly changed in shape by the boundary commission and following that process, the quarter of the 80-odd thousands electors in this constituency who live in Chelmsford rather than the rest who live in Uttlesford, when we took those two lists and merged them together with our printers to send out the postal votes, just under thirteen thousands of those, the Chelmsford ones got subsumed underneath the rest the list and didn’t go out. “That’s just an unacceptable human error, I’m mortified, I take full responsibility for it and I cannot apologise too much but I am making sure what all my team are doing is catching up, is getting those out to people. "It is a big mess and I am not trying to gloss over that or minimise it.” When asked if he needs to consider his position he answered: “Honestly yes, but I am going to do that after the election day - because the last thing any of the voters in this constituency need between now and the election is fewer people with their hands to the pump fixing the issue. "That’s a very fair challenge and ask me that again after the election and that’s exactly what I am going to have to do."
https://www.saffronwaldenreporter.co.uk/news/24423335.uttlesford-thousands-postal-votes-sent-late-due-error/
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/postal-vote-delays-could-bar-badenoch-from-tory-leadership-race-wxqxpqfpd
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6p27evjz49o
The main allegation is obviously serious, but...
..that he had posed with a barbecued dog while on a trip to Korea...
Vanity Fair reporter Joe Hagen, who previously wrote a profile of Mr Kennedy for the magazine, said the photo was evidence of Mr Kennedy “simultaneously mocking Korean culture, reveling in animal cruelty, and needlessly risking his reputation and that of his family”.
Of all the nutty stuff around this bloke, this is one of the notable things....no wonder nobody wants to run for elected office, if you ever taken a photo ever about anything, somebody 20 years later might use it in a hit piece against you.
Meanwhile, jet lag can hit for at least two weeks especially the older you get. Not that I’d use this excuse for the debate performance.