Mr Biden made another gaffe over the weekend as he sought to calm the nerves of anxious donors at a campaign reception in New York. The US president claimed Trump referred to America’s war dead as “losers” and “suckers” when he cancelled a visit to Aisne-Marne American Cemetery, near Paris, in 2018. Mr Biden mistakenly said the cemetery was located in Italy
It is clear the Democrats are going to keep going with these stories about Trump which have dubious evidence for being true. I would stick to the mountain of definitely true shit you can throw at him.
"Kelly came under fire for his criticism of the Florida Democrat in 2017 after a released video showed he misrepresented her remarks from a FBI building dedication in 2015."
Trump claims he has many witnesses that say it was a lie. He could be bullshitting, but Biden also went with the "fine people on both sides" which is another misrepresentation what he actually said (even Snopes debunked that one).
Like I say, its not like there is a shortage of stuff to chuck at Trump. He lied repeatedly during the debate live on tv. They could easily hammer him with that rather than disputed stories about things said in private.
I think the French result will embolden some Tories to vote for Reform.
The idea that a voter of country A gives a shit about country B is nonsense. It's like pretending people voted Trump because of Brexit.
Not really. The headlines are going to be "far right makes big gains in France" and voters will see that. I'm not saying they care about France but I think humans are encouraged to roll the dice when they see others doing the same.
Mr Biden made another gaffe over the weekend as he sought to calm the nerves of anxious donors at a campaign reception in New York. The US president claimed Trump referred to America’s war dead as “losers” and “suckers” when he cancelled a visit to Aisne-Marne American Cemetery, near Paris, in 2018. Mr Biden mistakenly said the cemetery was located in Italy
It is clear the Democrats are going to keep going with these stories about Trump which have dubious evidence for being true. I would stick to the mountain of definitely true shit you can throw at him.
"Kelly came under fire for his criticism of the Florida Democrat in 2017 after a released video showed he misrepresented her remarks from a FBI building dedication in 2015."
Trump claims he has many witnesses that say it was a lie.
Could I perhaps hear it from the witnesses, rather than from DJT?
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
I don't think we should fear RN winning a majority and/or the French Presidency, even for those of us that are liberals that oppose Le Pen's policies. Democracy is about countries trying out new ideas and seeing if they work in practice. Given France's recent history of quickly learning to hate whoever is in power, I'd be amazed if things didn't swing back before long. And I don't think she is a threat to democracy in the way Trump is.
My one point of real concern is RN's previous friendliness to Putin. France probably has the best military in the EU and is influential on such matters. A softening of the pro-Ukraine position would be very unhelpful in a world where Europe needs to step up to fill the gap left by a Trump presidency. Maybe Le Pen has learnt her lesson there. We'll see.
In any case, we can definitively conclude that Macron's election gamble is going about as well as Sunak's, except much much worse given he had no need to call it for three years.
That’s where I am too. I don’t care about their domestic influence, so long as they remain all mouth and no trousers and don’t start doing kristallnachts. Meloni is a reassuring precedent. But the Putin thing is more worrying.
Meloni was an anti-mafia conservative catholic and protegee of Berlusconi so I never quite got the fear. From a distance she seems to have done okay controlling her dodgier coalition allies.
I think the French result will embolden some Tories to vote for Reform.
The idea that a voter of country A gives a shit about country B is nonsense. It's like pretending people voted Trump because of Brexit.
Not really. The headlines are going to be "far right makes big gains in France" and voters will see that. I'm not saying they care about France but I think humans are encouraged to roll the dice when they see others doing the same.
I don't think Reform voters think they are far right.
I think the French result will embolden some Tories to vote for Reform.
The idea that a voter of country A gives a shit about country B is nonsense. It's like pretending people voted Trump because of Brexit.
Not really. The headlines are going to be "far right makes big gains in France" and voters will see that. I'm not saying they care about France but I think humans are encouraged to roll the dice when they see others doing the same.
I don't think Reform voters think they are far right.
I agree but they are aware that the "MSM" thinks they are.
Stacked Regression and Poststratification (SRP) and Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) differ in the way they make predictions. The main difference is that the former uses more than one model, including but not limited to Multilevel Regression, to make predictions whilst the latter relies solely on the Multilevel Regression model. The second major difference is that SRP uses non-parametric Machine Learning Models as part of its architecture which offers advantages over parametric alternatives.
The use of stacking, combining estimates from many models into a single final estimate, underpins algorithms like Random Forests and Neural Networks. The main advantage of this kind of stacking is that we can use different models to probe different parts of the data giving a more holistic set of predictions that consider many different facets of the data. This includes models that are superior at unpicking the constituency level predictors whilst other models can investigate the individual level effects in much more detail. Some models, like Multilevel Regression, can analyse both the individual level and constituency level data simultaneously. The combination of these models then produces estimates that more accurately represent the nuances in the underlying data.
The majority of models used in our stacking procedure are “non-parametric”. One of the major inputs that goes into any MRP is the underlying structure of the model that link the predictors chosen by the modeller to the vote intention of individuals. This underlying structure is ultimately arbitrary and there are theoretically many trillions of possible underlying models that could be used. This is what makes MRP parametric – the modeller decides the interactions and relationship. Furthermore, MRP is inherently linear (unless otherwise specified) which can ignore more complex relationships in the data. A non-parametric model, like a random forest, can approximate the true underlying relationship that links the predictor variables to vote intention without input from the modeller. All the modeller does is select the variables used for prediction.
This offers obvious advantages. It reduces the number of assumptions that the modeller has to make in terms of selecting the parameterisation of the model whilst also allowing the model to find the best possible, arbitrary, combination of parameters.
The inclusion of multiple non-parametric models offers advantages to making seat estimates as it hugely reduces the effect of modeller-based decisions. It also offers improved accuracy in terms of fitting the underlying data and uses the most up-to-date methods for classification problems.
Mr Biden made another gaffe over the weekend as he sought to calm the nerves of anxious donors at a campaign reception in New York. The US president claimed Trump referred to America’s war dead as “losers” and “suckers” when he cancelled a visit to Aisne-Marne American Cemetery, near Paris, in 2018. Mr Biden mistakenly said the cemetery was located in Italy
It is clear the Democrats are going to keep going with these stories about Trump which have dubious evidence for being true. I would stick to the mountain of definitely true shit you can throw at him.
"Kelly came under fire for his criticism of the Florida Democrat in 2017 after a released video showed he misrepresented her remarks from a FBI building dedication in 2015."
Trump claims he has many witnesses that say it was a lie.
Could I perhaps hear it from the witnesses, rather than from DJT?
As I say, I wouldn't even play that game. Also, you can then get into the tit for tat of the nonsense fake stories Biden loves to tell.
If I was the democrats I would stick to the 100s of hours of Trump on camera lying rather than getting into he said / she said stuff or the twisting of things he said. There is just so many things you can get him on you don't need to stretch the elastic at all. In fact you give him an out as he plays the "they lie about me, they always lie about me".
Hold on. That map seems to show that where our roving reporter, @Leon, has spent all week breathlessly reporting from sports bars that it is LePen all the way, actually support the Left.
What are you fucking talking about you dull twat
I spoke about ONE town. Called Guingamp. Go check the map. It voted Le Pen
Ok. Fair point. But only just. Looks quite split to me.
And I may be a twat but I'm not dull.
Hah. Fair play you were polite in response to my sourness. I just get weary of being mischaracterised. Apologies for snapping
I really do try to report honestly what I see - and Guingamp was fascinating. You are quite right it is wildly divided - I saw that there: far left posters ripped down then far right graffiti then further left wing graffiti over that etc etc
Elsewhere in France the election has been invisible this week. But not in that town
Sadly, despite what will happen here next week, I fear this kind of deep division is where we are headed in say a decade's time.
We are unless our government can connect with the people and reform our society.
We all have to hope Labour are up to it. I have my doubts, but I hope I am wrong. I will nevertheless give them a chance and I hope that they run a successful government.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
I find myself in the invidious position of wishing hurricane-induced devastation onto the Cayman Islands, because it would justify the decision of my in-laws to abandon their 9-day long sojourn there on the basis of my reading of the forecast for Hurricane Beryl. Of course, I don't really want to see trees uprooted, hotels flooded, and foolhardy tourists sobbing their guts out to the BBC. I just want to appreciate the impressive technical feat of numerical models forecasting a hurricane track many days in advance.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
I find it staggering that four police officers took their own lives in the aftermath of the riot.
And even if we say no one died on the day or as a result of it for sake of argument, an attempt to violently prevent the peaceful transfer of power would not be called a sit in if it was done by the left.
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Actually, I'd turn it around slightly.
France is deeply fucked, because 34% of people want Le Pen, 28% of people want crazy Left Wingers (just five percentage points below Le Pen), and only about a third of people want someone else. And even this other third include people who want other crazies.
Now, I'm not particularly scared by Ms Le Pen being a crazy right winger, largely because her policies aren't particularly crazy or right wing.
But I do worry about the French economy if someone gets in charge whose prescription for economic issues is rather Jeremy Corbyn. France under Mme Le Pen would be all about subsidies to French "champions", rather than about competition and innovation. It's like someone suffering from liver disease, and thinking the solution is more alcohol.
France now basically has its largest party a more statist version of Farage's Reform party but still as anti immigrant, the opposition led by the French Corbyn with the French Tories and LDs trailing in a distant third and trying to cobble together a deal to contain the top 2
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
I find it staggering that four police officers took their own lives in the aftermath of the riot.
And even if we say no one died on the day or as a result of it for sake of argument, an attempt to violiently prevent the peaceful transfer of power would not be called a sit in if it was done by the left.
And this is why Biden can't be the candidate. Trump needs to be defeated - Biden won't be the person to do it.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
I find it staggering that four police officers took their own lives in the aftermath of the riot.
And even if we say no one died on the day or as a result of it for sake of argument, an attempt to violiently prevent the peaceful transfer of power would not be called a sit in if it was done by the left.
Certainly not by Fox News, but I think it would have been excused as such by the Left.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
Its like the BBC had an election night and it featured George Galloway and Owen jones and Gordon brown and maybe Rory Stewart at best on a night when reform won the election and they all discussed how they could sabotage the reform victory, encouraged by the bbc journos
65.5% doesn't seem like that high a turnout. It's lower than the last UK election.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
I find it staggering that four police officers took their own lives in the aftermath of the riot.
And even if we say no one died on the day or as a result of it for sake of argument, an attempt to violiently prevent the peaceful transfer of power would not be called a sit in if it was done by the left.
Certainly not by Fox News, but I think it would have been excused as such by the Left.
We may well find out next year if Trump wins re-election. But in absence of it happening to date, what worth is the speculation?
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
Its like the BBC had an election night and it featured George Galloway and Owen jones and Gordon brown and maybe Rory Stewart at best on a night when reform won the election and they all discussed how they could sabotage the reform victory, encouraged by the bbc journos
65.5% doesn't seem like that high a turnout. It's lower than the last UK election.
It's very high for them (though apparently that may be due to not taking place after a presidential election like previous ones).
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
Sure, but that's still an insane suicide rate in a short period of time, for what is a very small number of police officers.
Being suddenly thrust into the limelight and going *viral* in some sense is, I would guess, strongly correlated with suicide.
Us humans, we're not made for fame.
Also, Police culture in the US is pretty rightwing. Friends/family/Facebook acquaintances etc would probably have been on the other side of the argument for many/most of the officers.
The immediate, public, social ostracism must have been immense, which is one of the key predictors of suicide.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
I find it staggering that four police officers took their own lives in the aftermath of the riot.
And even if we say no one died on the day or as a result of it for sake of argument, an attempt to violiently prevent the peaceful transfer of power would not be called a sit in if it was done by the left.
And this is why Biden can't be the candidate. Trump needs to be defeated - Biden won't be the person to do it.
He did it in 2020, the post debate polls still show it near tied
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
I think it's evidenced, he's utterly obsessed with talking points of the far right and has been for some time. So yes, he would have happily worked for Hitler just as he is happily cheering on the fascists in France.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
That man is an embarrassment to the enterprise of academia.
Today's essay question for the fresh faced, undergraduate, Matthew Goodwin, is.....
Define Woke/Wokeism.
Mark Scheme;
1. Answers that boil down to *a collection of things I don't like* are not acceptable. 0/100 2. Answers that conflate a dislike of Islamism with a dislike of Pride/Homosexuality/LGBTQ people, without teasing out the nuances, are not acceptable either. 0/100
I could go on.
Instead, I shall make this prediction;
Among Matthew Goodwin's twitter/social media followers is the next David Copeland.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
The only problem with this analysis is that there was also record support (28%), for a party who wants to completely open the doors to all asylum seekers.
How do politicians "address wokeism" which exists as a stick to beat those said politicians with? Goodwin's honest answer to this should be that he wants people to vote for Farage style parties that promise to slash the state with supremacism as the compensation, Mississippi style.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
That man is an embarrassment to the enterprise of academia.
Today's essay question for the fresh faced, undergraduate, Matthew Goodwin, is.....
Define Woke/Wokeism.
Mark Scheme;
1. Answers that boil down to *a collection of things I don't like* are not acceptable. 0/100 2. Answers that conflate a dislike of Islamism with a dislike of Pride/Homosexuality/LGBTQ people, without teasing out the nuances, are not acceptable either. 0/100
I could go on.
Instead, I shall make this prediction;
Among Matthew Goodwin's twitter/social media followers is the next David Copeland.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
The only problem with this analysis is that there was also record support (28%), for a party who wants to completely open the doors to all asylum seekers.
"The only problem with the analysis that the French electorate want to restrict migration is the party which wants to increase migration lost to the party which wants to restrict migration" . Great stuff!!
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
That man is an embarrassment to the enterprise of academia.
Today's essay question for the fresh faced, undergraduate, Matthew Goodwin, is.....
Define Woke/Wokeism.
Mark Scheme;
1. Answers that boil down to *a collection of things I don't like* are not acceptable. 0/100 2. Answers that conflate a dislike of Islamism with a dislike of Pride/Homosexuality/LGBTQ people, without teasing out the nuances, are not acceptable either. 0/100
I could go on.
Instead, I shall make this prediction;
Among Matthew Goodwin's twitter/social media followers is the next David Copeland.
Also, I don't understand why Matthew Goodwin has exempted the Jews from his *Amalgamation of people/groups/things that good old fashioned conservatives, like him, don't like*
It's only very recently that they've become the fashionable in-group, mainly because muslims are the fashionable outgroup, and, y'know, the enemies enemy etc etc.
I'm just a bit disappointed in him. The next, more successful incarnation of Matthew Goodwin will surely find a way to weave - at least subtle - antisemitism into his worldview.
The French election has made me think about voting Labour for the first time.
My hope (note: not prediction) is that the British right emerges from this unhappy episode of governmental failure, in a healthier position, putting forward a, ahem, forward looking agenda for our country in 5 years time.
If it can happen anywhere, it can happen here.
Indeed, I think it's odds-on that the world's next Thatcher/Reagan will pop up in Britain, as opposed to anywhere else. The Le Pen's and Milei's are false prophets.
Not with the Thatcher/Reagan agenda, obviously, but the obvious successor to it. Which won't be obvious to any of us, until it emerges.
Someone, somewhere on the right is doing some deep thinking right now.
Incredibly unlikely adjunct: That person is probably trans*
The French election has made me think about voting Labour for the first time.
My hope (note: not prediction) is that the British right emerges from this unhappy episode of governmental failure, in a healthier position, putting forward a, ahem, forward looking agenda for our country in 5 years time.
If it can happen anywhere, it can happen here.
Indeed, I think it's odds-on that the world's next Thatcher/Reagan will pop up in Britain, as opposed to anywhere else. The Le Pen's and Milei's are false prophets.
Not with the Thatcher/Reagan agenda, obviously, but the obvious successor to it. Which won't be obvious to any of us, until it emerges.
Someone, somewhere on the right is doing some deep thinking right now.
Incredibly unlikely adjunct: That person is probably trans*
I keep throwing copies of Anarchy, State and Utopia at my trans friends in the hope of converting them. To me the idea of individual rights and not being told what to do by the state or other people and being trans seems like an obvious match, but they are all a bunch of leftie greens, alas.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
The only problem with this analysis is that there was also record support (28%), for a party who wants to completely open the doors to all asylum seekers.
"The only problem with the analysis that the French electorate want to restrict migration is the party which wants to increase migration lost to the party which wants to restrict migration" . Great stuff!!
I perhaps put it poorly. Support for the extremes - Don't Let Anyone In! And Let Everyone In! - have risen to record levels. Just like in America, with Trump, there is a reflexive "anti everything they support" thing.
I'd also note that last legislative elections in France, Goodwin was pointing not to the fact that EM did well, but to the fact that support for the (then called) FN had risen to a record.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
ooh interesting. Dailymail.co.uk now sponsored by reform.
Someone's got deep pockets.
Interesting it's not the Conservatives.
Zia Yusuf gave them a big donation and Tice is super wealthy. Nobody is giving the Tories any money, I don't think they have even got their usual big bung from the likes of JCB.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
The only problem with this analysis is that there was also record support (28%), for a party who wants to completely open the doors to all asylum seekers.
"The only problem with the analysis that the French electorate want to restrict migration is the party which wants to increase migration lost to the party which wants to restrict migration" . Great stuff!!
I perhaps put it poorly. Support for the extremes - Don't Let Anyone In! And Let Everyone In! - have risen to record levels. Just like in America, with Trump, there is a reflexive "anti everything they support" thing.
I'd also note that last legislative elections in France, Goodwin was pointing not to the fact that EM did well, but to the fact that support for the (then called) FN had risen to a record.
The sad thing here is that the assumption is that addressing issues is, itself, extreme.
Heywood & Middleton North is the only seat in England/Wales where the Greens aren't standing.
Useless election fact.
So who are their donors, to have come up with £300k in deposits?
I think Dale Vince gives Green Party money as well as Labour. Also lots of the marxist loving eco-fascist overthrow the system mob are actually very wealthy (it why they can spend all day lying down on roads and splattering paintings in art galleries rather than having to be at a job).
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
Its like the BBC had an election night and it featured George Galloway and Owen jones and Gordon brown and maybe Rory Stewart at best on a night when reform won the election and they all discussed how they could sabotage the reform victory, encouraged by the bbc journos
65.5% doesn't seem like that high a turnout. It's lower than the last UK election.
This is a good point. Not being at all familiar with the French system, I wondered if low turnout in the first round was down to a lot of voters not bothering to appear until the second - but in the previous Parliamentary poll turnout was similar (and below 50%) in both rounds.
French voters appear to care more about the presidency, albeit that turnout in presidential elections has been in decline for some time.
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
This is an under appreciated element in Biden 's decision making about his future, I suspect.
I think the punditocracy might have carried more weight with this admin had they ever called for Trump to leave, ever seriously examined his mental health, ever credited Biden with accomplishments or ever treated his VP fairly. He not unreasonably thinks they are full of it.. https://x.com/JRubinBlogger/status/1807619789239587269
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
Can't really comment without looking up which seats.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Actually, I'd turn it around slightly.
France is deeply fucked, because 34% of people want Le Pen, 28% of people want crazy Left Wingers (just five percentage points below Le Pen), and only about a third of people want someone else. And even this other third include people who want other crazies.
Now, I'm not particularly scared by Ms Le Pen being a crazy right winger, largely because her policies aren't particularly crazy or right wing.
But I do worry about the French economy if someone gets in charge whose prescription for economic issues is rather Jeremy Corbyn. France under Mme Le Pen would be all about subsidies to French "champions", rather than about competition and innovation. It's like someone suffering from liver disease, and thinking the solution is more alcohol.
France now basically has its largest party a more statist version of Farage's Reform party but still as anti immigrant, the opposition led by the French Corbyn with the French Tories and LDs trailing in a distant third and trying to cobble together a deal to contain the top 2
Which is much what we are likely to see in 2029, unless Starmer can pull off a miracle.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
The only problem with this analysis is that there was also record support (28%), for a party who wants to completely open the doors to all asylum seekers.
"The only problem with the analysis that the French electorate want to restrict migration is the party which wants to increase migration lost to the party which wants to restrict migration" . Great stuff!!
I perhaps put it poorly. Support for the extremes - Don't Let Anyone In! And Let Everyone In! - have risen to record levels. Just like in America, with Trump, there is a reflexive "anti everything they support" thing.
I'd also note that last legislative elections in France, Goodwin was pointing not to the fact that EM did well, but to the fact that support for the (then called) FN had risen to a record.
When financially incontinent people get booted out of their house and end up in a bedsit as they have run out of money and got into debt, they generally blame two lots of people.
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Actually, I'd turn it around slightly.
France is deeply fucked, because 34% of people want Le Pen, 28% of people want crazy Left Wingers (just five percentage points below Le Pen), and only about a third of people want someone else. And even this other third include people who want other crazies.
Now, I'm not particularly scared by Ms Le Pen being a crazy right winger, largely because her policies aren't particularly crazy or right wing.
But I do worry about the French economy if someone gets in charge whose prescription for economic issues is rather Jeremy Corbyn. France under Mme Le Pen would be all about subsidies to French "champions", rather than about competition and innovation. It's like someone suffering from liver disease, and thinking the solution is more alcohol.
France now basically has its largest party a more statist version of Farage's Reform party but still as anti immigrant, the opposition led by the French Corbyn with the French Tories and LDs trailing in a distant third and trying to cobble together a deal to contain the top 2
Which is much what we are likely to see in 2029, unless Starmer can pull off a miracle.
Rubbish. The RN/FN has always been bigger than Farage, and while Le Pen has been more open about the support from Russia she has received, Farage has the albatross of Brexit around his neck, which will continue to place a ceiling upon his electoral ambitions.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Except that most Tory candidates these days are on the right of their party and there are few to nine that could be described as Lib Dem manque
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
Can't really comment without looking up which seats.
Blake Stephenson is certainly not a Shoo in. Mid Beds currently has a Labour MP who has aquitted himself well since Nadine went off in a huff.
He is standing in Hitchen this time as boundary tweaks put his home in that constitiency but Dorries may well have poisoned the mid beds challenge for a generation.
I would add Chris Loder in West Dorset to your shoo in list
Omg Francois Hollande the ultimate pathetic loser doing a big speech all about how important he is and how he was brilliant
Surely D J Trump was the ultimate pathetic loser in 2020?
Hiliary Clinton refusing to give a concession speech in 2016 because she couldn't pull herself together beats that easily.
Nah, the attack on Capitol Hill in 2021 Trumps that even more easily.
I confess I have not read the court transcripts, so I can't say where it stood on the scale from sit-in to coup. But if it were leftists, it would have been called a sit-in.
A mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, and people died. No it wouldn't have.
All manner of speculation about what could have happened could occur, but what happened, happened.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Hey, you've just Godwined Goodwin.
(that was not actually a comment on your comment beyond the fact I found the alliteration amusing)
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Actually, I'd turn it around slightly.
France is deeply fucked, because 34% of people want Le Pen, 28% of people want crazy Left Wingers (just five percentage points below Le Pen), and only about a third of people want someone else. And even this other third include people who want other crazies.
Now, I'm not particularly scared by Ms Le Pen being a crazy right winger, largely because her policies aren't particularly crazy or right wing.
But I do worry about the French economy if someone gets in charge whose prescription for economic issues is rather Jeremy Corbyn. France under Mme Le Pen would be all about subsidies to French "champions", rather than about competition and innovation. It's like someone suffering from liver disease, and thinking the solution is more alcohol.
France now basically has its largest party a more statist version of Farage's Reform party but still as anti immigrant, the opposition led by the French Corbyn with the French Tories and LDs trailing in a distant third and trying to cobble together a deal to contain the top 2
Which is much what we are likely to see in 2029, unless Starmer can pull off a miracle.
Rubbish. The RN/FN has always been bigger than Farage, and while Le Pen has been more open about the support from Russia she has received, Farage has the albatross of Brexit around his neck, which will continue to place a ceiling upon his electoral ambitions.
It will not be under Farage, but there may well come a day when Reform, a variant or offshoot thereof considers taking us back into the European polity wholesale. I think it is a long way down the road but the pieces within the EU could line up to make it a possibility one day. Europe and Britain will align on immigration over time imv and the long term trend will not be to the left.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Blair got a majority of 66 on a vote of 21% of the electorate in 2005. (35.2% on 61.4% turnout).
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Unfortunately in they won over 33% of the vote. That's one in three voters.
Pretending non voters are voters is just . . . Lying.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
Can't really comment without looking up which seats.
Blake Stephenson is certainly not a Shoo in. Mid Beds currently has a Labour MP who has aquitted himself well since Nadine went off in a huff.
He is standing in Hitchen this time as boundary tweaks put his home in that constitiency but Dorries may well have poisoned the mid beds challenge for a generation.
I would add Chris Loder in West Dorset to your shoo in list
You'd better get down the bookies asap my friend, 11-4 for a 'shoo in' is an astonishing price
By the way, in other French news, yesterday French riders won back-to-back stages in Le Tour de France (men’s) for the first time in 45 years.
Thought I’d mention it. Lots of sport around at the moment, with Wimbledon starting today. Yay!
The drugs some of the riders are on this year is looking like top quality shit. 4hrs in a break away in scorching heat and absolutely no problem flying up a hill climb with gradients of as high as 20%, twice, at such a rate the peloton couldn't catch them. Maybe they should give Biden some.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I’ve watched you over the past fortnight hopping closer and closer to that rabbit hole. Getting close now.
Keep going and you’ll be joining Laurence Fox and Sean Thomas down there.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Unfortunately in they won over 33% of the vote. That's one in three voters.
Yah but my point is that turnout wasn’t as high as some UK elections and the fact is that they ‘only’ secured 1 in 5 of the French electorate in the first round. Re-read what I wrote.
This is an important point in an age of hyperbole so don’t trivialise it. Ta. xx
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Or on the other hand, if you had a brain you might think: "Do I want to vote for a party that appears to be filled with racists and loons?" and pick the Lib Dems instead of either the Tories or Reform.
By the way, in other French news, yesterday French riders won back-to-back stages in Le Tour de France (men’s) for the first time in 45 years.
Thought I’d mention it. Lots of sport around at the moment, with Wimbledon starting today. Yay!
The drugs some of the riders are on this year is looking like top quality shit. 4hrs in a break away in scorching heat and absolutely no problem flying up a hill climb with gradients of as high as 20%, twice, at such a rate the peloton couldn't catch them. Maybe they should give Biden some.
There was a very amusing line (ho ho) by Gary Imlach in the highlights introduction that 'this year’s Tour gets higher in the first week than any previous tour, at least legally.'
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I can't help notice that you've chosen not to include Putin's role.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Or on the other hand, if you had a brain you might think: "Do I want to vote for a party that appears to be filled with racists and loons?" and pick the Lib Dems instead of either the Tories or Reform.
Sure, but that's already priced in. There cannot be many shy Lib Dems in the group currently polling as Tories. Why would they not have disclosed the fact? There are plenty of Reform-curious amongst them though.
The US response to France leaving Nato in 1968 can be contrasted with The Soviet Union's response to Czechoslovakia leaving the Warsaw pact in the same year.
In the end we all know it as North Korea that attacked the South and North Vietnam that attacked the South with Chinese and Soviet support respectively.
North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Actually, I'd turn it around slightly.
France is deeply fucked, because 34% of people want Le Pen, 28% of people want crazy Left Wingers (just five percentage points below Le Pen), and only about a third of people want someone else. And even this other third include people who want other crazies.
Now, I'm not particularly scared by Ms Le Pen being a crazy right winger, largely because her policies aren't particularly crazy or right wing.
But I do worry about the French economy if someone gets in charge whose prescription for economic issues is rather Jeremy Corbyn. France under Mme Le Pen would be all about subsidies to French "champions", rather than about competition and innovation. It's like someone suffering from liver disease, and thinking the solution is more alcohol.
France now basically has its largest party a more statist version of Farage's Reform party but still as anti immigrant, the opposition led by the French Corbyn with the French Tories and LDs trailing in a distant third and trying to cobble together a deal to contain the top 2
Which is much what we are likely to see in 2029, unless Starmer can pull off a miracle.
No chance.
The destruction of the Tory party by a moderate left wing party on Thursday is not a harbinger of the triumph of the hard right in Britain. Indeed they are about to become supremely irrelevant.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Did the middle classes have their entire life savings wiped out by rampant hyper-inflation while I was sleeping?
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Blair got a majority of 66 on a vote of 21% of the electorate in 2005. (35.2% on 61.4% turnout).
This argument is usually rolled out when the loser wants to cast aspersions on the mandate of the victor.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
Yes. The Conservatives have made it worse for themselves but the German SPD and Canadian Liberals are in similar positions.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Or on the other hand, if you had a brain you might think: "Do I want to vote for a party that appears to be filled with racists and loons?" and pick the Lib Dems instead of either the Tories or Reform.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
Well, yes: if you fail on the economy, immigration and ethics in office - expect a beating.
If Labour had been in office (yes, I know, I know) over the last 4 years they wouldn't be on course for a majority now.
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Actually, I'd turn it around slightly.
France is deeply fucked, because 34% of people want Le Pen, 28% of people want crazy Left Wingers (just five percentage points below Le Pen), and only about a third of people want someone else. And even this other third include people who want other crazies.
Now, I'm not particularly scared by Ms Le Pen being a crazy right winger, largely because her policies aren't particularly crazy or right wing.
But I do worry about the French economy if someone gets in charge whose prescription for economic issues is rather Jeremy Corbyn. France under Mme Le Pen would be all about subsidies to French "champions", rather than about competition and innovation. It's like someone suffering from liver disease, and thinking the solution is more alcohol.
France now basically has its largest party a more statist version of Farage's Reform party but still as anti immigrant, the opposition led by the French Corbyn with the French Tories and LDs trailing in a distant third and trying to cobble together a deal to contain the top 2
Which is much what we are likely to see in 2029, unless Starmer can pull off a miracle.
Rubbish. The RN/FN has always been bigger than Farage, and while Le Pen has been more open about the support from Russia she has received, Farage has the albatross of Brexit around his neck, which will continue to place a ceiling upon his electoral ambitions.
You are quite brilliant on Ukraine and Russia and essentially a tool on everything else.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I can't help notice that you've chosen not to include Putin's role.
Putin stole the virus and released it at with wet market?
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Prediction: If Labour win a huge majority on a derisory share of the vote, only slightly higher than the 34% for Le Pen in France (say 36%) then Leon will make much of the nearly two-thirds who didn't vote Labour - "The British DIDN'T want this."
Comments
Trump claims he has many witnesses that say it was a lie. He could be bullshitting, but Biden also went with the "fine people on both sides" which is another misrepresentation what he actually said (even Snopes debunked that one).
Like I say, its not like there is a shortage of stuff to chuck at Trump. He lied repeatedly during the debate live on tv. They could easily hammer him with that rather than disputed stories about things said in private.
If I was the democrats I would stick to the 100s of hours of Trump on camera lying rather than getting into he said / she said stuff or the twisting of things he said. There is just so many things you can get him on you don't need to stretch the elastic at all. In fact you give him an out as he plays the "they lie about me, they always lie about me".
We all have to hope Labour are up to it. I have my doubts, but I hope I am wrong. I will nevertheless give them a chance and I hope that they run a successful government.
Useless election fact.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8056254/
Us humans, we're not made for fame.
Also, Police culture in the US is pretty rightwing. Friends/family/Facebook acquaintances etc would probably have been on the other side of the argument for many/most of the officers.
The immediate, public, social ostracism must have been immense, which is one of the key predictors of suicide.
'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies'
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Today's essay question for the fresh faced, undergraduate, Matthew Goodwin, is.....
Define Woke/Wokeism.
Mark Scheme;
1. Answers that boil down to *a collection of things I don't like* are not acceptable. 0/100
2. Answers that conflate a dislike of Islamism with a dislike of Pride/Homosexuality/LGBTQ people, without teasing out the nuances, are not acceptable either. 0/100
I could go on.
Instead, I shall make this prediction;
Among Matthew Goodwin's twitter/social media followers is the next David Copeland.
Discuss....
It's only very recently that they've become the fashionable in-group, mainly because muslims are the fashionable outgroup, and, y'know, the enemies enemy etc etc.
I'm just a bit disappointed in him. The next, more successful incarnation of Matthew Goodwin will surely find a way to weave - at least subtle - antisemitism into his worldview.
If it can happen anywhere, it can happen here.
Indeed, I think it's odds-on that the world's next Thatcher/Reagan will pop up in Britain, as opposed to anywhere else. The Le Pen's and Milei's are false prophets.
Not with the Thatcher/Reagan agenda, obviously, but the obvious successor to it. Which won't be obvious to any of us, until it emerges.
Someone, somewhere on the right is doing some deep thinking right now.
Incredibly unlikely adjunct: That person is probably trans*
I'd also note that last legislative elections in France, Goodwin was pointing not to the fact that EM did well, but to the fact that support for the (then called) FN had risen to a record.
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths,
Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst,
Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner,
Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul,
Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox,
Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
Someone's got deep pockets.
Interesting it's not the Conservatives.
The extremism is in the answers.
Come up with answers that are not extreme.
French voters appear to care more about the presidency, albeit that turnout in presidential elections has been in decline for some time.
I think the punditocracy might have carried more weight with this admin had they ever called for Trump to leave, ever seriously examined his mental health, ever credited Biden with accomplishments or ever treated his VP fairly. He not unreasonably thinks they are full of it..
https://x.com/JRubinBlogger/status/1807619789239587269
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/01/labour-plan-replace-nhs-england-chair-richard-meddings-general-election
1) The state for not giving them enough money.
2) Those around them for stitching them up.
Thats France, that is.
He is standing in Hitchen this time as boundary tweaks put his home in that constitiency but Dorries may well have poisoned the mid beds challenge for a generation.
I would add Chris Loder in West Dorset to your shoo in list
(that was not actually a comment on your comment beyond the fact I found the alliteration amusing)
Europe and Britain will align on immigration over time imv and the long term trend will not be to the left.
Thought I’d mention it. Lots of sport around at the moment, with Wimbledon starting today. Yay!
Pretending non voters are voters is just . . . Lying.
Keep going and you’ll be joining Laurence Fox and Sean Thomas down there.
This is an important point in an age of hyperbole so don’t trivialise it. Ta. xx
The destruction of the Tory party by a moderate left wing party on Thursday is not a harbinger of the triumph of the hard right in Britain. Indeed they are about to become supremely irrelevant.
Might do it myself on Friday.
I do wish people would rein in this nonsense.
Aldi and Lidl take American Express.
If Labour had been in office (yes, I know, I know) over the last 4 years they wouldn't be on course for a majority now.
Like a demi-Roger. No, a semi-Roger.