@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Did the middle classes have their entire life savings wiped out by rampant hyper-inflation while I was sleeping?
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Blair got a majority of 66 on a vote of 21% of the electorate in 2005. (35.2% on 61.4% turnout).
This argument is usually rolled out when the loser wants to cast aspersions on the mandate of the victor.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
Yes. The Conservatives have made it worse for themselves but the German SPD and Canadian Liberals are in similar positions.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Or on the other hand, if you had a brain you might think: "Do I want to vote for a party that appears to be filled with racists and loons?" and pick the Lib Dems instead of either the Tories or Reform.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
Well, yes: if you fail on the economy, immigration and ethics in office - expect a beating.
If Labour had been in office (yes, I know, I know) over the last 4 years they wouldn't be on course for a majority now.
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Actually, I'd turn it around slightly.
France is deeply fucked, because 34% of people want Le Pen, 28% of people want crazy Left Wingers (just five percentage points below Le Pen), and only about a third of people want someone else. And even this other third include people who want other crazies.
Now, I'm not particularly scared by Ms Le Pen being a crazy right winger, largely because her policies aren't particularly crazy or right wing.
But I do worry about the French economy if someone gets in charge whose prescription for economic issues is rather Jeremy Corbyn. France under Mme Le Pen would be all about subsidies to French "champions", rather than about competition and innovation. It's like someone suffering from liver disease, and thinking the solution is more alcohol.
France now basically has its largest party a more statist version of Farage's Reform party but still as anti immigrant, the opposition led by the French Corbyn with the French Tories and LDs trailing in a distant third and trying to cobble together a deal to contain the top 2
Which is much what we are likely to see in 2029, unless Starmer can pull off a miracle.
Rubbish. The RN/FN has always been bigger than Farage, and while Le Pen has been more open about the support from Russia she has received, Farage has the albatross of Brexit around his neck, which will continue to place a ceiling upon his electoral ambitions.
You are quite brilliant on Ukraine and Russia and essentially a tool on everything else.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I can't help notice that you've chosen not to include Putin's role.
Putin stole the virus and released it at with wet market?
Obviously the French election results indicate a pretty dramatic shift. But I'm not as convinced as others that they are that seismic - it's not as if Le Pen/RN have swept the board. I know it's stating the obvious, but they won just over a third of the votes on a high turnout; two thirds didn't vote for them, and the left was only six points behind. It just doesn't indicate to me a huge passion for RN across all France.
lol! They’ve gone from 10% to 34% in a few years And this new triumph is on a relatively huge turnout
The French WANT this
Prediction: If Labour win a huge majority on a derisory share of the vote, only slightly higher than the 34% for Le Pen in France (say 36%) then Leon will make much of the nearly two-thirds who didn't vote Labour - "The British DIDN'T want this."
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Unfortunately in they won over 33% of the vote. That's one in three voters.
Yah but my point is that turnout wasn’t as high as some UK elections and the fact is that they ‘only’ secured 1 in 5 of the French electorate in the first round. Re-read what I wrote.
This is an important point in an age of hyperbole so don’t trivialise it. Ta. xx
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Unfortunately in they won over 33% of the vote. That's one in three voters.
Yah but my point is that turnout wasn’t as high as some UK elections and the fact is that they ‘only’ secured 1 in 5 of the French electorate in the first round. Re-read what I wrote.
This is an important point in an age of hyperbole so don’t trivialise it. Ta. xx
The likelihood is that RN will pick up additional voters in Round 2, from other right wing voters, in seats where the Left is the main challenger to them. And some LFI voters so loathe Macron that they’d vote RN where the run off is between EN and RN.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
Well, yes: if you fail on the economy, immigration and ethics in office - expect a beating.
If Labour had been in office (yes, I know, I know) over the last 4 years they wouldn't be on course for a majority now.
A financial shock in 2008 gave the Tories an advantage in 2010. Financial shocks happen and incumbent governments are punished.
The difference this time around was in addition to circumstantial financial shocks your government created their own out of thin air. The Truss/Kwarteng (according to the Mail) best budget ever.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Your much vaunted turn to the Left that you want to tout isn't going to be that impressive if the turnout on Thursday is disappointingly low. Will be interesting to see whether you present the Labour share of the vote in the same way.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Unfortunately in they won over 33% of the vote. That's one in three voters.
Yah but my point is that turnout wasn’t as high as some UK elections and the fact is that they ‘only’ secured 1 in 5 of the French electorate in the first round. Re-read what I wrote.
This is an important point in an age of hyperbole so don’t trivialise it. Ta. xx
However turnout this time seems to have been far higher than the last time around - the numbers may be below 20% of the total population but their voters have actually gone out and voted this time round.
I suspect the turnout is going to be all important next Sunday
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Nobody is advocating violence, or an end to democracy. So not really.
Heywood & Middleton North is the only seat in England/Wales where the Greens aren't standing.
Useless election fact.
There are no useless facts, only ones whose relevance is not immediately obvious. And that is no bad things.
I learned a "useless" fact at the weekend. Aldi and Lidl take American Express.
Here's a genuinely useless fact:
In Germany there are 2 separate Aldis. Aldi Süd, and Aldi Nord. They have divided the rest of the world between them. The UK belongs to Aldi Süd.
btw Aldi Süd have recently (maybe last year) introduced a great innovation in checkout technology (at least I first saw it at Aldi Süd). Not only do they have dividers where people pack their shopping, but they have 2 extra card machines at the ends so cashiers can swipe through the next customer's shopping before the first customer has actually paid (unless they want to use CASH)
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Did the middle classes have their entire life savings wiped out by rampant hyper-inflation while I was sleeping?
The grievances may have been different but the political response is similar. Siren voices, channelling blame.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Nobody is advocating violence, or an end to democracy. So not really.
Yet, although America appeared to be getting there.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I’ve watched you over the past fortnight hopping closer and closer to that rabbit hole. Getting close now.
Keep going and you’ll be joining Laurence Fox and Sean Thomas down there.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I can't help notice that you've chosen not to include Putin's role.
Putin stole the virus and released it at with wet market?
You don't think Putin's invasion of Ukraine caused higher inflation? Well, I respect your unique understanding.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Or on the other hand, if you had a brain you might think: "Do I want to vote for a party that appears to be filled with racists and loons?" and pick the Lib Dems instead of either the Tories or Reform.
Sure, but that's already priced in. There cannot be many shy Lib Dems in the group currently polling as Tories. Why would they not have disclosed the fact? There are plenty of Reform-curious amongst them though.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
14.8 million estimated excess deaths from a 'nasty cold bug'? If you had been making the decisions during the pandemic (no masks, no distancing, go to parties) things would have been far worse, I guess you didn't study science. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_deaths
The US response to France leaving Nato in 1968 can be contrasted with The Soviet Union's response to Czechoslovakia leaving the Warsaw pact in the same year.
In the end we all know it as North Korea that attacked the South and North Vietnam that attacked the South with Chinese and Soviet support respectively.
North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
It's a bit more complicated than that.
But setting aside the many nuances, on of Mao's principle motivations for getting involved was to build a modern army with Russian technology and military aid.
From his pov, the massive losses in manpower in Korea were a price well worth paying, even if the gamble of full scale invasion didn't pay off.
The US, too, ended up reaping a great (though much more long term) dividend on their own massive investment.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
I agree with Gallowgate. You're a pissed off right wing Tory. You've all but decided to vote yet again for your crappy Lib Dem in a blue rosette candidate parachuted in by CCHQ, just to keep Labour out. You hear the news that the far right has swept to power in France. The thought of voting Tory in a vain attempt to hang on to Rishi Sunak just looks faintly risible in that context. Blow it, you think, I'll vote Reform.
Or on the other hand, if you had a brain you might think: "Do I want to vote for a party that appears to be filled with racists and loons?" and pick the Lib Dems instead of either the Tories or Reform.
I’d only ever vote Lib Dem to keep out the SNP.
I'm probably going to vote LD for the following reasons:
*) All the local candidates are meh. In fact, the current Conservative incumbent is probably the 'best'. *) But there's no way I can vote for a candidate of the current Conservative party iteration. *) Labour is going to get a landslide, but I'm not sold on Starmer or his project, and I don't like any party having a massive majority. *) The Lib Dems stand a good chance in this constituency, and I like some of their policies. *) Having a stronger LD presence in parliament may help break the longstanding duopoly here in England.
Yes, some of those reasons are wishy-washy; but I've never found an 'ideal' candidate or party in any election I've voted in. It's a case of voting for the candidate/party that best fits my views and desire for the country's future.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
Well, yes: if you fail on the economy, immigration and ethics in office - expect a beating.
If Labour had been in office (yes, I know, I know) over the last 4 years they wouldn't be on course for a majority now.
A financial shock in 2008 gave the Tories an advantage in 2010. Financial shocks happen and incumbent governments are punished.
The difference this time around was in addition to circumstantial financial shocks your government created their own out of thin air. The Truss/Kwarteng (according to the Mail) best budget ever.
Which I didn't vote for.
I don't think the members should chose the PM when there's a change in office, still less claim some sort of policy "mandate" for it.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
These are the 26 new Tory MPs who are likely to be elected on Thursday imo:
Gareth Williams, Katie Lam, Bradley Thomas, Mhairi Fraser, Alison Griffiths, Aphra Brandreth, Andrew Snowden, Mark Brooks, Sarah Bool, Charlie Dewhurst, Lewis Cocking, David Reed, Jack Rankin, Peter Fortune, Will Tanner, Patrick Spence, Rebecca Smith, Nikki da Costa, John Cooper, Rebecca Paul, Peter Bedford, Blake Stephenson, Nick Timothy, Nathan Gamester, Ashley Fox, Harriet Cross.
There's also Tania Mathias, who was previously MP for Vince Cable's seat of Twickenham between 2015 and 2017.
Can't really comment without looking up which seats.
Blake Stephenson is certainly not a Shoo in. Mid Beds currently has a Labour MP who has aquitted himself well since Nadine went off in a huff.
He is standing in Hitchen this time as boundary tweaks put his home in that constitiency but Dorries may well have poisoned the mid beds challenge for a generation.
I would add Chris Loder in West Dorset to your shoo in list
You'd better get down the bookies asap my friend, 11-4 for a 'shoo in' is an astonishing price
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I’ve watched you over the past fortnight hopping closer and closer to that rabbit hole. Getting close now.
Keep going and you’ll be joining Laurence Fox and Sean Thomas down there.
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Nobody is advocating violence, or an end to democracy. So not really.
Far-right these days is used to mean someone who's serious about stopping immigration all the way up to actual Nazis.
Since it's most often used on those who are serious about stopping immigration, because both the parties and the votes are more numerous for this, people have simply become desensitised to it and ignore it.
The US response to France leaving Nato in 1968 can be contrasted with The Soviet Union's response to Czechoslovakia leaving the Warsaw pact in the same year.
In the end we all know it as North Korea that attacked the South and North Vietnam that attacked the South with Chinese and Soviet support respectively.
North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
The South Korean Dictatorship at the time was far nastier and more bloodthirsty than the north and the North Korean invasion was in response to the Souths openly stated aim to invade and conquer it with US aid.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I can't help notice that you've chosen not to include Putin's role.
He didn't have a role. He didn't stop selling his oil and has, we (Europe) refused to buy it
(well not directly, just laundered via places like India at a much higher price).
My village in the Mâconnais is becoming increasingly like the fortress of Sedan as the advancing waves of Le Pen votes lap up closer and closer with each election.
RN are still in third in St Vincent des Pres on 18%. Ensemble won with 45%, then the left with 35%.
But this time Cluny narrowly had RN ahead, 34 to 30. Contented, arty, cosmopolitan Cluny. Now fallen, another Bakhmut or Mariupol on the long road to the Le Pen supremacy.
EDIT: those were initial counts but I’m relieved to see that on the final numbers RN were second in Cluny behind the left, 37 to 28. Phew!
@GoodwinMJ 'What you're witnessing in France tonight is the onward march of national populism. As I've said for years, it will only get stronger until elites ADDRESS concerns about mass immigration, Islamism, weak borders, wokeism & the erosion of Western societies' https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1807479195313836117
Matthew Goodwin would have happily worked for Hitler.
Do you want to risk getting sued by Goodwin?
When you look into the rise of the National Socialist party it’s not that hard to draw parallels between the sense of grievance and need to ‘other’ among the artisans and small town professionals of 1920s Germany and what we see in the media of the right today.
Did the middle classes have their entire life savings wiped out by rampant hyper-inflation while I was sleeping?
Not yet, ask again in 10 years and you might get a very different answer.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Unfortunately in they won over 33% of the vote. That's one in three voters.
Yah but my point is that turnout wasn’t as high as some UK elections and the fact is that they ‘only’ secured 1 in 5 of the French electorate in the first round. Re-read what I wrote.
This is an important point in an age of hyperbole so don’t trivialise it. Ta. xx
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Unfortunately in they won over 33% of the vote. That's one in three voters.
Yah but my point is that turnout wasn’t as high as some UK elections and the fact is that they ‘only’ secured 1 in 5 of the French electorate in the first round. Re-read what I wrote.
This is an important point in an age of hyperbole so don’t trivialise it. Ta. xx
The likelihood is that RN will pick up additional voters in Round 2, from other right wing voters, in seats where the Left is the main challenger to them. And some LFI voters so loathe Macron that they’d vote RN where the run off is between EN and RN.
I’ve mentioned previously that I think the UK got the right-wing phase out of its system with Brexit in 2016, confirmed in 2019.
We are ahead of the curve on this and are about to swing back to a large Centre-Left majority.
Leading the way for the western world. Once other EU countries have had their justifiable say about centralised elitism and mass migration, they will follow.
We’ve a great opportunity now and I expect Lab-LibDem-SNP-Green to seize it
The Centre-Left will be in power in Britain for a long time.
Maybe. Maybe it’s simpler than that: whoever was in power during a period of high inflation gets voted out.
High inflation caused by putting the entire population under house arrest for a couple of years off and on and forcing them to wear useless face nappies in public, in response to a nasty cold bug that primarily impacts people over 80 and those with other comorbidities.
I can't help notice that you've chosen not to include Putin's role.
He didn't have a role. He didn't stop selling his oil and has, we (Europe) refused to buy it
(well not directly, just laundered via places like India at a much higher price).
Err, India and China are paying a much *lower* price for Putin’s oil than the international price, because they’re the only ones prepared to buy it.
The US response to France leaving Nato in 1968 can be contrasted with The Soviet Union's response to Czechoslovakia leaving the Warsaw pact in the same year.
In the end we all know it as North Korea that attacked the South and North Vietnam that attacked the South with Chinese and Soviet support respectively.
North Korea was supported by the Soviets, not China, at the time of the invasion. China joined later when MacArthur started threatening to invade them as well.
The South Korean Dictatorship at the time was far nastier and more bloodthirsty than the north and the North Korean invasion was in response to the Souths openly stated aim to invade and conquer it with US aid.
Without wishing in any way to defend Syngman Rhee, if you think he was worse than Kim Il Sung you know precisely fuck all about Korea.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Blair got a majority of 66 on a vote of 21% of the electorate in 2005. (35.2% on 61.4% turnout).
This argument is usually rolled out when the loser wants to cast aspersions on the mandate of the victor.
Might do it myself on Friday.
It’s thought that the people that don’t vote have the same views as those that do. And in about the same proportion.
One more point: France 24 English HAS got a politician from La France Insoumise the almost openly anti Semitic and quasi Marxist corbynite alliance and she is getting a lot of time to talk
But no one from the party which just won the election on an historic turnout
LePen’s Far Right party attained roughly 20% of the electorate in the first round of voting. 4 out of every 5 French voters did not cast their vote for her party. As ever, your anarchism is hyperbole.
Furthermore they haven’t ‘won’ anything yet and commentators doubt she will gain a majority next week.
As ever, the Far Right in France flatter to deceive.
Blair got a majority of 66 on a vote of 21% of the electorate in 2005. (35.2% on 61.4% turnout).
This argument is usually rolled out when the loser wants to cast aspersions on the mandate of the victor.
Might do it myself on Friday.
It’s thought that the people that don’t vote have the same views as those that do. And in about the same proportion.
Seems pretty implausible given the age and demographic splits.
Comments
Might do it myself on Friday.
I do wish people would rein in this nonsense.
Aldi and Lidl take American Express.
If Labour had been in office (yes, I know, I know) over the last 4 years they wouldn't be on course for a majority now.
Like a demi-Roger. No, a semi-Roger.
RN are on the brink of an overall majority.
F1: that was quite a race. Astounded there was no safety car. Excellent result for Haas. Hulkenberg beat Perez on merit.
The difference this time around was in addition to circumstantial financial shocks your government created their own out of thin air. The Truss/Kwarteng (according to the Mail) best budget ever.
I suspect the turnout is going to be all important next Sunday
In Germany there are 2 separate Aldis. Aldi Süd, and Aldi Nord. They have divided the rest of the world between them. The UK belongs to Aldi Süd.
btw Aldi Süd have recently (maybe last year) introduced a great innovation in checkout technology (at least I first saw it at Aldi Süd). Not only do they have dividers where people pack their shopping, but they have 2 extra card machines at the ends so cashiers can swipe through the next customer's shopping before the first customer has actually paid (unless they want to use CASH)
Here, I've found an article with a picture.
https://www.aldi-sued.de/de/newsroom/alle-pressemitteilungen/unternehmen/2023/ALDI-Sued-rollt-Neuerungen-im-Kassenbereich-aus.html
If you had been making the decisions during the pandemic (no masks, no distancing, go to parties) things would have been far worse, I guess you didn't study science.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_deaths
But setting aside the many nuances, on of Mao's principle motivations for getting involved was to build a modern army with Russian technology and military aid.
From his pov, the massive losses in manpower in Korea were a price well worth paying, even if the gamble of full scale invasion didn't pay off.
The US, too, ended up reaping a great (though much more long term) dividend on their own massive investment.
*) All the local candidates are meh. In fact, the current Conservative incumbent is probably the 'best'.
*) But there's no way I can vote for a candidate of the current Conservative party iteration.
*) Labour is going to get a landslide, but I'm not sold on Starmer or his project, and I don't like any party having a massive majority.
*) The Lib Dems stand a good chance in this constituency, and I like some of their policies.
*) Having a stronger LD presence in parliament may help break the longstanding duopoly here in England.
Yes, some of those reasons are wishy-washy; but I've never found an 'ideal' candidate or party in any election I've voted in. It's a case of voting for the candidate/party that best fits my views and desire for the country's future.
NEW THREAD
I don't think the members should chose the PM when there's a change in office, still less claim some sort of policy "mandate" for it.
Since it's most often used on those who are serious about stopping immigration, because both the parties and the votes are more numerous for this, people have simply become desensitised to it and ignore it.
(well not directly, just laundered via places like India at a much higher price).
RN are still in third in St Vincent des Pres on 18%. Ensemble won with 45%, then the left with 35%.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/resultats/saone-et-loire_71/saint-vincent-des-pres_71250
But this time Cluny narrowly had RN ahead, 34 to 30. Contented, arty, cosmopolitan Cluny. Now fallen, another Bakhmut or Mariupol on the long road to the Le Pen supremacy.
EDIT: those were initial counts but I’m relieved to see that on the final numbers RN were second in Cluny behind the left, 37 to 28. Phew!