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Is France about to surrender to the far right? – politicalbetting.com
Is France about to surrender to the far right? – politicalbetting.com
??Political earthquake in France. Le Pen’s hard-right party and allies have won a massive lead in first-round parliamentary voting. Early results from @IpsosFrance give the RN 34%. This means it could, possibly, win a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly on July 7th 1/ pic.twitter.com/9GRpD8f6G7
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Finbarr Saunders would be proud...
And this is how they repay us?
because I cannot handle three massive elections at the same time.
Fun fact, at university I was given the nickname Finbarr, which has stuck with me ever since.
Bring on the Toblerones...
2-1
Projected on turnout numbers.
65-85 elected on first round.
150-170 head-to-heads in second round.
285-315 three-way contests.
Projected to qualify.
RN 390-430
NFP 370-410
Ensemble 290-330
LR/DVD 70-90.
Just saying.
Reform UK’s chairman Richard Tice claimed Reform candidates were being offered jobs and inducements “to persuade them to talk badly of Reform, stand down and then endorse the Tory candidate".
He said there were “dark forces at play by desperate Tories”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgk44k4mzxo
They need to get in government first.
Which they haven't yet done.
Then have many decades in power.
… asked what his greatest accomplishment in the Senate is, Vance cites funding for the Great Lakes that was part of the infrastructure bill he voted against..
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1807428972579315897
I closed out my VP bet on him for a profit.
Doug ‘Boring’ Burgum is the current, short odds favourite.
We will see.
It's 289 for a majority, and I suspect RN will end up on about 250-260, with 160-170 for the Popular Front and 80-90 for En Marche. And the remainder being a few Les Republicans, far leftists and the like.
It's *possible* that RN + LR is 289, but Les Republicans could easily end up with a dozen seats or less. In which case, I really can't see any coalition that gets to 289.
And, as @foxy correctly noted earlier today, she’s isn’t even far right, really. More like UKIP or Reform but a bit tougher on migration and with extra socialist economic policies
If you want French far right you can certainly get it. Zemmour
Dark dark forces at play
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46z0obe-Tig
Starts at 8pm. Don't say you weren't warned. Or that all historians are bonkers.
And a reminder to one and all that Mr Leon would have sacked Southgate and Kane. The chutzpah of the guy knows no bounds.
Where she is "Far Right" is her historic support for Putin.
Time for some football.
Georgia v Spain.
Until the last year - when he decided he wanted to become the Republican Presidential nominee - he was notably moderate, particularly on social issues, where he vetoed a number of his own parties bills on transgender issues.
Whereas:
The Popular Front has promised to scrap the pension and immigration reforms passed by the current government, to set up a rescue agency for undocumented migrants and to facilitate visa applications.
It also wants to put caps on basic goods to combat the cost of living crisis and raise the minimum wage.
Would likely be worse than Le Pen economically.
France now has the problem that a large majority now support some form of extremism.
England were unbeaten at Euro 2024 under the Tories.
Her previous finishes first round and (second)
2012 17.9 (NA)
2017 21.3 (33.9)
2022 23.2 (41.5)
https://www.liberation.fr/resultats-elections/
The worst possible outcome for him was arguably a win for RN but not big enough for RN to be the government - just a massive pain in the arse stopping macron doing anything
Then at the next presidential election Le Pen can claim “we need real power, not this mess” - the nation agrees and she wins easily
"We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it."
Juncker.
1) Have a strong chance of becoming President within four years
2) Have a strong chance of being GOP candidate in 2028
Grrr!
One of Thatchers finest moments was when she lost a ruling in the (Judicial) House of Laws, reacting by promptly passing primary legislation to overthrow the ruling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
I think people have proposed weird convolutions such as a former president being made vice-president somehow and then succeeed the presidency later. Trump himself has certainly 'joked' about such things.
Trump would be older than Biden is now if he was up for a third term, and he's unstable now, even his fans comparing him to Jesus might begin to have second thoughts.
That is their democratic choice. Trying to foil it with games and duplicity cannot work forever and is probably now counter productive
England still haven't faced a side with more than 10% of England's population yet. Squeezing past Slovakia is not a triumph.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dyzgDj5h9g
The far left in France is fucking nuts
So where do I go? Dinard for the beauty or Cancale for the oysters? I adore oysters so I think I should make a pilgrimage to the oyster capital of the world BUT Dinard is said to be lovely…
That is the shining example of how unelected judges creatively twisting a constitution to overrule elected assemblies poisons the country.
Had parliament failed to pass the 1967 Act, then had it imposed by the ECJ or ECHR over parliaments head, we would have seen far more poisonous culture wars than we have had.
Someone should ask Trump if he agrees that he has been elected to the office of President twice.
IANAE but maybe the laws/regulations were not drafted very well? When drafting laws/regulations if you want to exclude or include a particular rational interpretation you need to use clear language.