It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
But this poll isn’t especially outlying
Look at the variations in the numbers. His surveys are all over the shop.
As much variation as Dua Lipa’s wardrobe changes in this Glastonbury set? #downwivthekidz
Is it very centrist grandad to admit they until this evening I had literally never heard of Ms Lipa?
However, I am now aware how little she wears on stage.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Looks like the Tories are going to lose a 15,000 majority in Gillingham & Rainham according to all of the forecasts. The new Labour MP would be Naushabah Khan, who was Labour's candidate back at the Rochester and Strood by-election in 2014 when the Traitorous Pig Dog was elected.
I'm totally past it. As we saw last night. But at least I'm not a liar.
Yeh. That'll bring the swing voters of Nevada back home to Dems.
Unfortunately so. I'd argue it's still the better choice, lacking practical alternatives, but it doesn't look likely the deciding voters will, bearing in mind how ridiculously close some of those key states were last time, in the range of mere 10s of thousands.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
I know you have a soft spot for Trump, but his winning the Presidency would be really, really bad for the Conservative Party in Epping Forest.
Not really, half the Tories here love Trump (though I would still go for Biden as below)
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
But this poll isn’t especially outlying
Look at the variations in the numbers. His surveys are all over the shop.
As much variation as Dua Lipa’s wardrobe changes in this Glastonbury set? #downwivthekidz
Is it very centrist grandad to admit they until this evening I had literally never heard of Ms Lipa?
However, I am now aware how little she wears on stage.
She went to school round the corner from me. Got to support a local lass.
Looks like the Tories are going to lose a 15,000 majority in Gillingham & Rainham according to all of the forecasts. The new Labour MP would be Naushabah Khan, who was Labour's candidate back at the Rochester and Strood by-election in 2014 when the Traitorous Pig Dog was elected.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Say Biden resigns and Harris becomes President. The Vice Presidency is vacant. Harris is allowed to nominate her replacement, but Congress blocks it (the GOP playing silly b*gets in the House).
Who presides over the electoral vote count in January if no Vice President is seated at that time?
Harris as she would remain VP as well as taking office as President until a replacement is chosen
I don't think that's right. I believe the responsibilities of VP (of which there are few but officiating over electoral vote count is one) would pass to Mike Johnson as Speaker.
However, I doubt they'd refuse to confirm any reasonable choice. The House GOP is increasingly extreme but there are enough who'd either confirm or abstain.
No they wouldn't, the VP would remain as elected by the Congress in 2020, the Constitution only says the Speaker fills the role of President if both the President and VP are dead or incapacitated. If the VP is still alive and kicking they retain the role, the Speaker doesn't fill it
I’m sorry to say you’re wrong on this. The Vice Presidency would become vacant immediately upon Harris assuming the Presidency.
To understand why, you need to look at Article II of the Constitution (which addresses the Electoral College).
Notwithstanding the changes to Electoral College ushered in under the 12th Amendment, Article II mandates that the President and the Vice President shall not be from the same state. Although the Article II in this instance does not relate specifically to Presidential Succession, it does create an obstacle given the role of the Vice President (and not the President) in the certification of the Electoral College votes.
Harris would not be permitted to hold both offices by virtue of being from a single state. Having sworn the Presidential Oath of Office and assumed said responsibilities, the Vice Presidency falls away (or sits in remainder) until such time that a successor is nominated and approved by both the House and the Senate.
The responsibilities and roles of the Vice President within the Legislature (as articulated in the Constitution) devolve to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. The Vice President has no responsibilities and roles within the Executive (as articulated in the Constitution) so the point is moot.
In this scenario, with no VP, does the House Speaker - Mega MAGA Mike - get any extra responsibilities?
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
I know you have a soft spot for Trump, but his winning the Presidency would be really, really bad for the Conservative Party in Epping Forest.
Not really, half the Tories here love Trump (though I would still go for Biden as below)
That doesn't mean that a Trump presidency wouldn't be bad for them. Face-eating leopards are bafflingly popular even among people who really, really don't want their face eaten by leopards.
Most wouldn't be bothered if Farage led their party either
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
I'm totally past it. As we saw last night. But at least I'm not a liar.
Yeh. That'll bring the swing voters of Nevada back home to Dems.
Unfortunately so. I'd argue it's still the better choice, lacking practical alternatives, but it doesn't look likely the deciding voters will, bearing in mind how ridiculously close some of those key states were last time, in the range of mere 10s of thousands.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
But it's the same pattern. You seem susceptible to picking up on and passing on maskirovka.
Not that I think I owe you an explanation for my views, but I haven't read a Russian media source since they closed RT.
Maskirovka in the general sense. I opted for that word out of politeness because "disinformation" sounds like you're accusing someone of just being a mug. Maskirovka sounds cleverer, easier to slip into. I think most people fall victim to it some of the time. But some more than others. It's one of the things I do here. I check a lot of stuff people say. Sometimes people say things wrong because they're talking out of their hat. Sometimes it's because they've misunderstood. And sometimes they seem to hit the maskirovka vibe quite often. That last one is very you (but not just you). I don't know why that is. I'd be intrigued to know where you get your ideas on news and politics. My suspicion is you follow a few conspiracy-minded twitts, but I can't know that. It's a feeling like your playing around on some quite weird fringes of the internet. Which can be fun to visit but I wouldn't dwell there.
Well, this is the weirdest fringe of the internet that I hang around in. But I am conspiracy-minded. Politics is a very high stakes business. Very large sums of money are involved. The idea that everyone plays by Queensbury rules seems ridiculously quaint to me.
As for people being wrong, I am frequently schooled here, and I am always the first to acknowledge when it happens. But more often than not, I'm right, and the reason is that far too many people here see their job as to 'add value' or 'fight the good fight' as they see it, rather than tell the truth. It's been obvious for months (years?) that Biden was a wreck for instance. Every person on PB knew this to be true, but they chose to fight the good fight and argue otherwise.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
I know you have a soft spot for Trump, but his winning the Presidency would be really, really bad for the Conservative Party in Epping Forest.
Not really, half the Tories here love Trump (though I would still go for Biden as below)
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Hypothetical polls are not worth the paper they are not written on.
South West Norfolk: Liz Truss 6/5 Richmond: Rishi Sunak 4/9 Fareham and Waterlooville: Suella Braverman 1/2 North West Essex: Kemi Badenoch 1/9 Witham: Priti Patel 1/6 Godalming: Jeremy Hunt 10/3 Tonbridge: Tom Tugendhat 1/5 Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt 7/4 Louth and Horncastle: Victoria Atkins 1/3 Newark: Robert Jenrick 6/4 Melksham and Devizes: Danny Kruger 1/2 Hertsmere: Oliver Dowden 2/5
Excellent list.
If PBers had to choose only one who would crawl out of the wreckage to lead their tiny party whom would it be??
I kinda of think Kruger would the most interesting and set the possible direction of the country off in a new way. He's like Blue Labour sleeps with deep green/conservationism/Christian values.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Whitmer!
Show me the poll then?
Thee hasn’t been much polling of the sort you want, and the polling on a hypothetical now isn’t that good a prediction of wha that the polling would be were someone, e.g. Whitmer, became the candidate. I think the fundamentals look good for Whitmer. I don’t think it’s very likely she will be chosen.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Presumably there are people, Whitmer(?), who would likely beat Trump if given national exposure.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
But it's the same pattern. You seem susceptible to picking up on and passing on maskirovka.
Not that I think I owe you an explanation for my views, but I haven't read a Russian media source since they closed RT.
Maskirovka in the general sense. I opted for that word out of politeness because "disinformation" sounds like you're accusing someone of just being a mug. Maskirovka sounds cleverer, easier to slip into. I think most people fall victim to it some of the time. But some more than others. It's one of the things I do here. I check a lot of stuff people say. Sometimes people say things wrong because they're talking out of their hat. Sometimes it's because they've misunderstood. And sometimes they seem to hit the maskirovka vibe quite often. That last one is very you (but not just you). I don't know why that is. I'd be intrigued to know where you get your ideas on news and politics. My suspicion is you follow a few conspiracy-minded twitts, but I can't know that. It's a feeling like your playing around on some quite weird fringes of the internet. Which can be fun to visit but I wouldn't dwell there.
Well, this is the weirdest fringe of the internet that I hang around in. But I am conspiracy-minded. Politics is a very high stakes business. Very large sums of money are involved. The idea that everyone plays by Queensbury rules seems ridiculously quaint to me.
As for people being wrong, I am frequently schooled here, and I am always the first to acknowledge when it happens. But more often than not, I'm right, and the reason is that far too many people here see their job as to 'add value' or 'fight the good fight' as they see it, rather than tell the truth. It's been obvious for months (years?) that Biden was a wreck for instance. Every person on PB knew this to be true, but they chose to fight the good fight and argue otherwise.
If you’re always the first to acknowledge when you’re wrong, why won’t you admit you swallowed Russian propaganda hook, line and sinker over supposed Ukrainian bioweapon labs?
Fascinating that we're less than 6 days until the UK exit poll; and only a few days more until final French parliamentary elections where a party to the right of Reform may win a majority; yet a gaffe in a US presidential debate that happens in over 5 months is dominating the headlines and debate on here.
Don't get me wrong - US politics this year is more important than how badly the Tories are screwed next week, but it's very telling the extent to which it dominates our political discourse when there are far more immediate events happening closer to home.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
If they do force him to step down, it opens up the question of who's really been running the government for the last couple of years. Lots of people have been complicit in covering up for Biden.
Oh puh'lease.
The same could be said of the last years of Reagan, when he clearly was down the dementia train.
The reality is that - just like in the UK - the PM / President doesn't actually make that many decisions. And where they do get made, they are largely in rooms with people and with minutes.
A President with dementia just means that recommendations made by junior staffers get waved through without proper oversight. It doesn't mean someone else is really President.
Fascinating that we're less than 6 days until the UK exit poll; and only a few days more until final French parliamentary elections where a party to the right of Reform may win a majority; yet a gaffe in a US presidential debate that happens in over 5 months is dominating the headlines and debate on here.
Don't get me wrong - US politics this year is more important than how badly the Tories are screwed next week, but it's very telling the extent to which it dominates our political discourse when there are far more immediate events happening closer to home.
Is the RFR to the Right of Reform? Really? How are their policies any different to Johnsonian Conservatism?
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Well, I think one just has to look at the post debate poll that showed a change from Biden +1 to Trump +8 might show another Democrat doing better.
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
Was it also you who believed in Ukrainian bioweapon labs? Or was that someone else?
The acknowledged labs, doing research into acknowledged biological weapons, but that we aren't supposed to call bioweapon labs? Yes, that is absolutely me. I remember the good old days when we were still denying their presence completely - a more innocent time.
Ah, yes. So, your MH17 mistake wasn’t a one-off. You will swallow any nonsense, then.
Well, I have some standards - I've never been credulous enough to believe anything you've written for example.
By the way, from your article:
In reality, the Ukrainian Ministry of Health and the U.S. Department of Defense signed an agreement in 2005 to prevent the spread of technologies and pathogens that might be used in the development of biological weapons.[32] New laboratories were established to secure and dismantle the remnants of the Soviet biological weapons program, and since then have been used to monitor and prevent new epidemics. The laboratories are publicly listed, not secret, and are owned and operated by host countries such as Ukraine, not by the US.[31][32] The Ukrainian-owned threat reduction labs, which are listed by the U.S. Embassy, also send academics to international scientific conferences who publicize their work.
So there absolutely were Bioweapons labs, funded by the US Department of Defense, in Ukraine. Their spin is that they're sinister, dangerous, world-threatening bioweapons labs - our spin is that they're happy, friendly peace-promoting bioweapons labs. But bioweapons labs is exactly what this article says they are.
There is a fine line sometimes. There was another happy clappy Biolab in Wuhan after all.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
If they do force him to step down, it opens up the question of who's really been running the government for the last couple of years. Lots of people have been complicit in covering up for Biden.
Oh puh'lease.
The same could be said of the last years of Reagan, when he clearly was down the dementia train.
The reality is that - just like in the UK - the PM / President doesn't actually make that many decisions. And where they do get made, they are largely in rooms with people and with minutes.
A President with dementia just means that recommendations made by junior staffers get waved through without proper oversight. It doesn't mean someone else is really President.
No. Sorry but that’s naive. Presidents and PMs mostly make decisions based on recommendations and in large and supportive groups; but sometimes they don’t. Sometimes they have to make fast decisions and those are the ones that matter.
“Sir you have to decide in next 45 seconds whether or not to shoot down an aircraft, because after that it will already be too late and it will be over a populated area. The limited facts we have are xyz. Do we fire”?
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
If they do force him to step down, it opens up the question of who's really been running the government for the last couple of years. Lots of people have been complicit in covering up for Biden.
Oh puh'lease.
The same could be said of the last years of Reagan, when he clearly was down the dementia train.
The reality is that - just like in the UK - the PM / President doesn't actually make that many decisions. And where they do get made, they are largely in rooms with people and with minutes.
A President with dementia just means that recommendations made by junior staffers get waved through without proper oversight. It doesn't mean someone else is really President.
Was the Reagan dementia public knowledge/rumour prior to the second term?
@HYUFD Perhaps a better way to phrase it would be the “functions” of the VP. The use of “role” suggests a promotion to VP when it really isn’t that at all.
@david_herdson The Carl Albert example is hysterically funny. I had reason to consult his papers in Oklahoma for research. The Watergate era was outside of my period of interest but you don’t waste the opportunity to have a read. The panic that set in when it was realised he could end up as Acting President was palpable in the memos and correspondence. They expedited Ford’s confirmation to resolve the situation. Of course, a few months later he found himself next in line again when Nixon stepped down. He wrote a letter to Ford (once he became President) pleading with him to pick a VP sharpish.
@MattW No. Don’t bookmark that. I know I’ll have overlooked something somewhere!
Reform aren't racist It wasn't a real Reform activist Ok, there were several Reform activists saying racist and homophobic stuff but all parties have that --- you are here --- Sure the tape of Farage horsewhipping the small Black lad looked bad out of context but... Can't stop to chat I'm off to get fitted for my boots
Reform are not racist It wasn't a real Reform activist I have never suggested that nobody supporting or even working for Reform is racist - that would be utterly absurd I haven't remotely shifted in any of my opinions regarding Reform, either today, or at any time during the campaign.
MH17
As part of a very heated discussion in the immediate aftermath of the MH17 downing, I claimed based on a Russian media source that the plane could not have been shot down by Russia, and must have been hit by Ukraine. It soon transpired that I (and the piece of media I got my information from) was completely wrong - impossibly so. I got flamed thoroughly, and admitted without reservation that I'd been in the wrong.
Following that incident, a certain member, who appears to me to have very profound issues, has used this incident as a persistent refrain whenever I mention anything relating to Russia, or frankly any other issues. He pretends, or perhaps has forgotten, that I had acknowledged my mistake (as very few people here actually do), and have never repeated my claims. I choose not to remind him because I don't think it would do any good, and because I think his repeated attacks say far more about him than they do about me.
I'm catching you up out of courtesy - you're not terribly pleasant a great deal of the time, but I don't have you down as a thorough-going nutjob.
But it's the same pattern. You seem susceptible to picking up on and passing on maskirovka.
Not that I think I owe you an explanation for my views, but I haven't read a Russian media source since they closed RT.
Maskirovka in the general sense. I opted for that word out of politeness because "disinformation" sounds like you're accusing someone of just being a mug. Maskirovka sounds cleverer, easier to slip into. I think most people fall victim to it some of the time. But some more than others. It's one of the things I do here. I check a lot of stuff people say. Sometimes people say things wrong because they're talking out of their hat. Sometimes it's because they've misunderstood. And sometimes they seem to hit the maskirovka vibe quite often. That last one is very you (but not just you). I don't know why that is. I'd be intrigued to know where you get your ideas on news and politics. My suspicion is you follow a few conspiracy-minded twitts, but I can't know that. It's a feeling like your playing around on some quite weird fringes of the internet. Which can be fun to visit but I wouldn't dwell there.
Well, this is the weirdest fringe of the internet that I hang around in. But I am conspiracy-minded. Politics is a very high stakes business. Very large sums of money are involved. The idea that everyone plays by Queensbury rules seems ridiculously quaint to me.
As for people being wrong, I am frequently schooled here, and I am always the first to acknowledge when it happens. But more often than not, I'm right, and the reason is that far too many people here see their job as to 'add value' or 'fight the good fight' as they see it, rather than tell the truth. It's been obvious for months (years?) that Biden was a wreck for instance. Every person on PB knew this to be true, but they chose to fight the good fight and argue otherwise.
If you’re always the first to acknowledge when you’re wrong, why won’t you admit you swallowed Russian propaganda hook, line and sinker over supposed Ukrainian bioweapon labs?
Because I didn't. The article you've just posted acknowledges their existence, you utter tool.
I'm really struggling to accept that some of the latest Survation MRP seat projections are even remotely plausible.
For example, Shropshire North. A seat currently held by LD MP Helen Morgan, with minor boundary changes only, after the 2021 by election with result LD 47, Con 32, Lab 10, Green 5, Reform 4. In those circumstances, even I have to admit that it's absolutely nailed on that the anti-Tory tactical vote will stay with the LDs. Yet Survation have the Conservatives regaining the seat with the LDs going from 1st to 4th place: Con 36, Lab 30, Reform 15, LD 10.
That's utter nonsense. Reality is reflected in the fact that you can't get better odds than 4/9 on for the LDs to win the seat.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Well, I think one just has to look at the post debate poll that showed a change from Biden +1 to Trump +8 might show another Democrat doing better.
It might but even that poll also had Biden's voteshare only down 1% and Trump still not over 50%
Thoughts and prayers for all those Tories who want to leave the ECHR but hate Labour's attack on private schools.
FWIW - I think Lord Pannick is wrong.
Sir Keir Starmer’s planned VAT raid on private schools is likely to breach human rights law, The Telegraph can reveal.
The Labour leader risks falling foul of European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) law over his party’s flagship policy, one of Britain’s top constitutional and human rights lawyers has warned.
Lord Pannick, who has taken on some of the UK’s most high-profile court cases, backed legal advice warning that making private schools subject to VAT was likely to breach ECHR law.
He told The Telegraph: “It would be strongly arguable that for a new government to impose VAT on independent schools would breach the right to education.
I’m surprised Pannick has this view . The child can go to a state school . The Labour policy isn’t stopping the child’s education.
Though people do have a right to choose.
Are any other educational materials or facilities subject to VAT?
I don't believe educational books are, I believe they're exempt?
If all educational stuff is exempt except one thing, then there's a case to be argued.
All books are zero-rated aren't they?
Yes. All written materials. Newspapers, magazines, books.
Actually I thought books designed to be written in were VAT rated, except for educational materials? May be wrong on that though.
Not sure what you mean by 'designed to be written' (genuinely, I don't understand the phrase).
All books are VAT exempt. Novels, text books, basically any book you can buy that is actually printed is exempt from VAT. Same goes for newsapers and magazines. Ebooks were subject to VAT until 2020 when they were included in the exemption.
Thoughts and prayers for all those Tories who want to leave the ECHR but hate Labour's attack on private schools.
FWIW - I think Lord Pannick is wrong.
Sir Keir Starmer’s planned VAT raid on private schools is likely to breach human rights law, The Telegraph can reveal.
The Labour leader risks falling foul of European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) law over his party’s flagship policy, one of Britain’s top constitutional and human rights lawyers has warned.
Lord Pannick, who has taken on some of the UK’s most high-profile court cases, backed legal advice warning that making private schools subject to VAT was likely to breach ECHR law.
He told The Telegraph: “It would be strongly arguable that for a new government to impose VAT on independent schools would breach the right to education.
I agree with you that I think he's wrong. Strikes me as, if I may describe it this... Peak lawyer brain. Now Pannick is an excellent silk, employed by iirc Man City and Bozza recently. But the connection he's made there is one only a lawyer would ever conceivably dream up. Legislation A + Act in fact B = 465.765
The interesting point is that it is not just his opinion but one that has apparently been held by a whole series of senior legal figures going back to the 80s. According to the article it was one advanced by Law Lords back in the 80s and 90s against Labour plans to either abolish or change the tax status of private schools. Now I have no idea if they are right but it seems that this is a principle that has been well established amongst the legal fraternity going back over 4 decades rather than something just dreamt up by Lord Pannick.
I very much doubt whether Pannick believes any such thing. The great thing which gets in the way of the rights of every child from a back street in Accrington or Rochdale to attend Winchester or Eton is fees the schools charge, not VAT.
The argument that the right to an education = the right of the right sort to go to Eton will delight the judges of the ECHR.
Well he has believed it enough to give the same legal advice for the last 40 years, along with a number of other senior legal experts.
PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.
And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.
My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.
Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.
I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.
Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.
Reform (NF) is the National Front.
Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
Redfield are wrong.
And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.
Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.
Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
I don't want Reform to make any headway but you are wrong here. They are a very, very long way from being anything like NF.
They look like them.
Only if you never had the 'pleasure' of experiencing the NF first hand.
I was chased by a group of them with a friend of mine. He is black. We were walking threw Bristol city centre in the late seventies. We had a 300 yard start on them. They started screaming at us after we walked past them. Luckily for us they started to run after they shouted abuse. We legged it. We could do the 1500 metres in 5.00 minutes in those days so we lost them.
In which case you should know not to make comparisons with Reform. And you were luckier than I was. I ended up in hospital after my run ins with them. And once in the cells as well.
If you're saying you once lamped a fascist, may I offer you my heartiest thanks and congratulations.
Indeed. And also got all my fingers broken by them. As some of the older posters on here are aware I took it all rather personally.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Whitmer!
Show me the poll then?
Thee hasn’t been much polling of the sort you want, and the polling on a hypothetical now isn’t that good a prediction of wha that the polling would be were someone, e.g. Whitmer, became the candidate. I think the fundamentals look good for Whitmer. I don’t think it’s very likely she will be chosen.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
Show me ONE poll showing any other Democrat doing better v Trump than Biden, who actually DID beat Trump in 2020 is?
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
Presumably there are people, Whitmer(?), who would likely beat Trump if given national exposure.
"who actually DID beat Trump in 2020"
That was 4 years ago and Biden is not up to it now. Jeez - watch the videos.
I am as guilty as anyone of falling for the 'Biden is the guy, democracy saviour, he did it last time, he is Scranton - decent America, claw hammer on the hip/picket fence/pass me another corn dog/Elizabeth Montgomery etc'
Reluctantly.
As all of the NY Times huge list of opinion writers are.
Also there's *Michigan* polling with Whitmer beating Trump 49-45 while Biden loses 39-47. Obviously that's her own state so it won't be representative of all the swing states but it's definitely a good one to have in the bag.
I know nobody cares about betting posts here any more but someone is concertedly trying to bring the Corbyn price down. I'm getting matched on my lays at evens over and over again, while backing at well above that with the bookies.
I know nobody cares about betting posts here any more but someone is concertedly trying to bring the Corbyn price down. I'm getting matched on my lays at evens over and over again, while backing at well above that with the bookies.
I'd say "someone knows something", but then why not lay Labour? Weird behaviour.
I'm sure you are all dying to hear more about trans in Scotland as it's so rarely discussed 😀
In the kerfuffle of the last few days, nobody noticed that Scotland released its trans census data. Scotland, never missing a chance to be a bit awkward, decided to have its census later, release it later, and use a different trans question (England asked about gender identity, so did Wales but in Welsh also, Scotland asked "are you trans", and NI stayed *well* out of it). The E&W census came up with 0.5%, the GC group "Sex Matters" disputed it and came up with 0.4%, and the Scots number is (drum roll) 0.44% of the whole pop'n and ~0.47% of those who answered. And I'm sure that'll please everybody. 😀
The centres of trans population are Dundee 1st, then Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen, the latter of which at 0.58% is presumably of interest to our ANME candidate. It's most popular in the 20-24 age bands at around 1.6%.
Also there's *Michigan* polling with Whitmer beating Trump 49-45 while Biden loses 39-47. Obviously that's her own state so it won't be representative of all the swing states but it's definitely a good one to have in the bag.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
If they do force him to step down, it opens up the question of who's really been running the government for the last couple of years. Lots of people have been complicit in covering up for Biden.
Oh puh'lease.
The same could be said of the last years of Reagan, when he clearly was down the dementia train.
The reality is that - just like in the UK - the PM / President doesn't actually make that many decisions. And where they do get made, they are largely in rooms with people and with minutes.
A President with dementia just means that recommendations made by junior staffers get waved through without proper oversight. It doesn't mean someone else is really President.
Was the Reagan dementia public knowledge/rumour prior to the second term?
Rumoured? Yes, and frequently. But that was just everyday banter. There's a difference between satire and "here's the diagnosis". That wasn't the case.
And - as I have been saying loudly - there's no comparison between Reagan's demeanor in 1984 and Biden's in 2024. Reagan was a bit rambly. Biden looks like a dementia patient whose dog just died.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
As they know Biden has proved he can beat Trump, other Democrats haven't (as Hillary knows only too well).
It will be a stage managed Dem convention I expect with Obama and Bill Clinton speaking on successive nights laying into Trump and backing Biden. It being after the GOP convention likely takes any poll bounce longer into September. Biden is also better now scripted than off the cuff, his speech at the NC rally today was fiery and passionate, far better than last night.
None of this matters. These are good and decent people. They know he's not up to four more years.
Trump is supposed to be the biggest liar to ever run for president.
But surely this is becoming a bigger lie?
Biden is not fit to be president. There is no fucking way around this.
All the rest is malarky as he would say.
If they do force him to step down, it opens up the question of who's really been running the government for the last couple of years. Lots of people have been complicit in covering up for Biden.
Oh puh'lease.
The same could be said of the last years of Reagan, when he clearly was down the dementia train.
The reality is that - just like in the UK - the PM / President doesn't actually make that many decisions. And where they do get made, they are largely in rooms with people and with minutes.
A President with dementia just means that recommendations made by junior staffers get waved through without proper oversight. It doesn't mean someone else is really President.
Was the Reagan dementia public knowledge/rumour prior to the second term?
Rumoured? Yes, and frequently. But that was just everyday banter. There's a difference between satire and "here's the diagnosis". That wasn't the case.
And - as I have been saying loudly - there's no comparison between Reagan's demeanor in 1984 and Biden's in 2024. Reagan was a bit rambly. Biden looks like a dementia patient whose dog just died.
On Jill Biden’s social media they cut him out of the shot:
Just seen Andrew George is running for the LDs in St Ives - he's stood there in every election for 32 years (plus I imagine a good few years of groundwork), and only been MP for 18 of them. Remarkable dedication, and it'll be good to see him back on the benches.
PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.
And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.
My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.
Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.
Honestly I think the nagging drip drip of reports of proper racists in the Reform ranks will give waverers pause.
The vast majority of Britons do not consider themselves to be racist and don’t want to associate themselves with a party they perceive to be so.
That said: my contention has always been that a lot of reform polling will not translate to actual votes on the day, mostly down to apathy. Reform = NOTA above for many, I feel.
South West Norfolk: Liz Truss 6/5 Richmond: Rishi Sunak 4/9 Fareham and Waterlooville: Suella Braverman 1/2 North West Essex: Kemi Badenoch 1/9 Witham: Priti Patel 1/6 Godalming: Jeremy Hunt 10/3 Tonbridge: Tom Tugendhat 1/5 Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt 7/4 Louth and Horncastle: Victoria Atkins 1/3 Newark: Robert Jenrick 6/4 Melksham and Devizes: Danny Kruger 1/2 Hertsmere: Oliver Dowden 2/5
Excellent list.
If PBers had to choose only one who would crawl out of the wreckage to lead their tiny party whom would it be??
I kinda of think Kruger would the most interesting and set the possible direction of the country off in a new way. He's like Blue Labour sleeps with deep green/conservationism/Christian values.
Kruger would quite possibly be the worst of all of the ones on that list, excepting maybe Suella and on par with Jenrick. Disastrous for the Tories.
He’s not on the list but Cleverly would be their best bet imvho.
Also there's *Michigan* polling with Whitmer beating Trump 49-45 while Biden loses 39-47. Obviously that's her own state so it won't be representative of all the swing states but it's definitely a good one to have in the bag.
Because the Dems are teary-eyed and feeling loyalty and emotion and solidarity and so on and on.
But Biden keeps telling us that democrcay is on the ballot.
So what could be more important? Stand aside and let the Dems decide a new candidate from a new generation
No, I think it's genuinely fucking difficult.
Biden is about tied into the polling which isn't a terrible deficit, this may or may not look different in a week. He's good with boomers and blue-collar guys who other Dems can't reach. It's technically easy to switch to Kamala but she has no history of successful campaigns outside California and what data there is says she'd lose. Or you try to elbow her out of the way to get someone else, and that person is untested at the national level and may bollocks it up. Plus, you can't force Biden to drop out if he doesn't want to, all you can do is try to damage him enough that he gives up, and if that fails you've made things worse.
If he's definitely going to lose then you obviously want to do something high-variance, but that's not quite clear yet.
Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult, as they say in your country.
I'm sure you are all dying to hear more about trans in Scotland as it's so rarely discussed 😀
In the kerfuffle of the last few days, nobody noticed that Scotland released its trans census data. Scotland, never missing a chance to be a bit awkward, decided to have its census later, release it later, and use a different trans question (England asked about gender identity, so did Wales but in Welsh also, Scotland asked "are you trans", and NI stayed *well* out of it). The E&W census came up with 0.5%, the GC group "Sex Matters" disputed it and came up with 0.4%, and the Scots number is (drum roll) 0.44% of the whole pop'n and ~0.47% of those who answered. And I'm sure that'll please everybody. 😀
The centres of trans population are Dundee 1st, then Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen, the latter of which at 0.58% is presumably of interest to our ANME candidate. It's most popular in the 20-24 age bands at around 1.6%.
So, for the purposes of public debate, 1 out of every 200 of my fellow compatriots are trans*.
Now, a podcast series I listened to some time ago (I posted a link on here) - referencing anecdata from the Tavistock clinic, indicated that, while it used to be 2/3 natal males referred for gender counselling, these days it was 2/3 natal females.
Now you're good at statistics, @viewcode - so, what is the correct, current, fraction of trans* natal males vs females?
South West Norfolk: Liz Truss 6/5 Richmond: Rishi Sunak 4/9 Fareham and Waterlooville: Suella Braverman 1/2 North West Essex: Kemi Badenoch 1/9 Witham: Priti Patel 1/6 Godalming: Jeremy Hunt 10/3 Tonbridge: Tom Tugendhat 1/5 Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt 7/4 Louth and Horncastle: Victoria Atkins 1/3 Newark: Robert Jenrick 6/4 Melksham and Devizes: Danny Kruger 1/2 Hertsmere: Oliver Dowden 2/5
Excellent list.
If PBers had to choose only one who would crawl out of the wreckage to lead their tiny party whom would it be??
I kinda of think Kruger would the most interesting and set the possible direction of the country off in a new way. He's like Blue Labour sleeps with deep green/conservationism/Christian values.
Kruger would quite possibly be the worst of all of the ones on that list, excepting maybe Suella and on par with Jenrick. Disastrous for the Tories.
He’s not on the list but Cleverly would be their best bet imvho.
Tugendhat would be interesting - a bit wet for many on the Right, and Jewish which would be a triumph for diversity esp as it continues the trend of Tories leading on the diversity of their PM's (3 women and a Hindu to date) he's a bit dull (a la John Major) which is perhaps what they need at present
Just seen Andrew George is running for the LDs in St Ives - he's stood there in every election for 32 years (plus I imagine a good few years of groundwork), and only been MP for 18 of them. Remarkable dedication, and it'll be good to see him back on the benches.
I believe Andrew George opened his maiden speech in Cornish language, he's well regarded. Trouble with St Ives (the seat) is that it is terribly gentrified (esp in last decade) and has real pockets of poverty so a Labour surge may cause issues in his vote share.... with luck he'll do it, Labour havent made much effort and the Reform candidate is shamelessly chasing the older voter, the sort of seat the Tories really wish didnt have a Reform challenge
I'm really struggling to accept that some of the latest Survation MRP seat projections are even remotely plausible.
For example, Shropshire North. A seat currently held by LD MP Helen Morgan, with minor boundary changes only, after the 2021 by election with result LD 47, Con 32, Lab 10, Green 5, Reform 4. In those circumstances, even I have to admit that it's absolutely nailed on that the anti-Tory tactical vote will stay with the LDs. Yet Survation have the Conservatives regaining the seat with the LDs going from 1st to 4th place: Con 36, Lab 30, Reform 15, LD 10.
That's utter nonsense. Reality is reflected in the fact that you can't get better odds than 4/9 on for the LDs to win the seat.
It could be that MRP is good when voting blocs are essentially demographically binary, and based around Leave/Remain as they were in GE2017 and GE2019, but otherwise somewhat limited and unable to deal with a complex election like this.
I'm really struggling to accept that some of the latest Survation MRP seat projections are even remotely plausible.
For example, Shropshire North. A seat currently held by LD MP Helen Morgan, with minor boundary changes only, after the 2021 by election with result LD 47, Con 32, Lab 10, Green 5, Reform 4. In those circumstances, even I have to admit that it's absolutely nailed on that the anti-Tory tactical vote will stay with the LDs. Yet Survation have the Conservatives regaining the seat with the LDs going from 1st to 4th place: Con 36, Lab 30, Reform 15, LD 10.
That's utter nonsense. Reality is reflected in the fact that you can't get better odds than 4/9 on for the LDs to win the seat.
A fine case of why applying demographic modelling simply cannot take account of local political factors. All it is telling you is that a next door seat with similar demography might vote differently.
Thoughts and prayers for all those Tories who want to leave the ECHR but hate Labour's attack on private schools.
FWIW - I think Lord Pannick is wrong.
Sir Keir Starmer’s planned VAT raid on private schools is likely to breach human rights law, The Telegraph can reveal.
The Labour leader risks falling foul of European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) law over his party’s flagship policy, one of Britain’s top constitutional and human rights lawyers has warned.
Lord Pannick, who has taken on some of the UK’s most high-profile court cases, backed legal advice warning that making private schools subject to VAT was likely to breach ECHR law.
He told The Telegraph: “It would be strongly arguable that for a new government to impose VAT on independent schools would breach the right to education.
I’m surprised Pannick has this view . The child can go to a state school . The Labour policy isn’t stopping the child’s education.
Though people do have a right to choose.
Are any other educational materials or facilities subject to VAT?
I don't believe educational books are, I believe they're exempt?
If all educational stuff is exempt except one thing, then there's a case to be argued.
All books are zero-rated aren't they?
Yes. All written materials. Newspapers, magazines, books.
Actually I thought books designed to be written in were VAT rated, except for educational materials? May be wrong on that though.
Not sure what you mean by 'designed to be written' (genuinely, I don't understand the phrase).
All books are VAT exempt. Novels, text books, basically any book you can buy that is actually printed is exempt from VAT. Same goes for newsapers and magazines. Ebooks were subject to VAT until 2020 when they were included in the exemption.
Books designed to be written in - means notebooks / diaries on which VAT has to be charged.
Just seen Andrew George is running for the LDs in St Ives - he's stood there in every election for 32 years (plus I imagine a good few years of groundwork), and only been MP for 18 of them. Remarkable dedication, and it'll be good to see him back on the benches.
I believe Andrew George opened his maiden speech in Cornish language, he's well regarded. Trouble with St Ives (the seat) is that it is terribly gentrified (esp in last decade) and has real pockets of poverty so a Labour surge may cause issues in his vote share.... with luck he'll do it, Labour havent made much effort and the Reform candidate is shamelessly chasing the older voter, the sort of seat the Tories really wish didnt have a Reform challenge
Andrew George is one of the few MPs I've met, and I didn't find him particularly nice or personable.
(Also memorable as it was on the day of the Challenger disaster.)
Just seen Andrew George is running for the LDs in St Ives - he's stood there in every election for 32 years (plus I imagine a good few years of groundwork), and only been MP for 18 of them. Remarkable dedication, and it'll be good to see him back on the benches.
I believe Andrew George opened his maiden speech in Cornish language, he's well regarded. Trouble with St Ives (the seat) is that it is terribly gentrified (esp in last decade) and has real pockets of poverty so a Labour surge may cause issues in his vote share.... with luck he'll do it, Labour havent made much effort and the Reform candidate is shamelessly chasing the older voter, the sort of seat the Tories really wish didnt have a Reform challenge
Andrew George is one of the few MPs I've met, and I didn't find him particularly nice or personable.
(Also memorable as it was on the day of the Challenger disaster.)
Breaking: Rishi Sunak abandoned his “legacy” policy to ban smoking for future generations amid a backlash from the tobacco industry in the form of legal threats, lobbying and a charm offensive aimed at Conservative MPs, an investigation reveals.
The UK had been on course to become the first country to ban smoking for future generations, via the tobacco and vaping bill, which Downing Street hoped would help define Sunak’s place in British political history.
An investigation by the Guardian and the Examination, a non-profit newsroom that investigates global health threats, has uncovered how the UK’s largest cigarette companies fought against the policy, which would have raised the smoking age by one year every year.
South West Norfolk: Liz Truss 6/5 Richmond: Rishi Sunak 4/9 Fareham and Waterlooville: Suella Braverman 1/2 North West Essex: Kemi Badenoch 1/9 Witham: Priti Patel 1/6 Godalming: Jeremy Hunt 10/3 Tonbridge: Tom Tugendhat 1/5 Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt 7/4 Louth and Horncastle: Victoria Atkins 1/3 Newark: Robert Jenrick 6/4 Melksham and Devizes: Danny Kruger 1/2 Hertsmere: Oliver Dowden 2/5
Excellent list.
If PBers had to choose only one who would crawl out of the wreckage to lead their tiny party whom would it be??
I kinda of think Kruger would the most interesting and set the possible direction of the country off in a new way. He's like Blue Labour sleeps with deep green/conservationism/Christian values.
Kruger would quite possibly be the worst of all of the ones on that list, excepting maybe Suella and on par with Jenrick. Disastrous for the Tories.
He’s not on the list but Cleverly would be their best bet imvho.
Surely it is Dowden from that list?
Btw, Tonbridge looks a decent bet for an LD gain. I like Tugendhat, but I think he is struggling to hold the seat.
Breaking: Rishi Sunak abandoned his “legacy” policy to ban smoking for future generations amid a backlash from the tobacco industry in the form of legal threats, lobbying and a charm offensive aimed at Conservative MPs, an investigation reveals.
The UK had been on course to become the first country to ban smoking for future generations, via the tobacco and vaping bill, which Downing Street hoped would help define Sunak’s place in British political history.
An investigation by the Guardian and the Examination, a non-profit newsroom that investigates global health threats, has uncovered how the UK’s largest cigarette companies fought against the policy, which would have raised the smoking age by one year every year.
In this context, "abandoned" means "excluded from the 'wash-up' process", so that it wasn't passed before the dissolution of parliament.
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
But this poll isn’t especially outlying
Look at the variations in the numbers. His surveys are all over the shop.
As much variation as Dua Lipa’s wardrobe changes in this Glastonbury set? #downwivthekidz
Is it very centrist grandad to admit they until this evening I had literally never heard of Ms Lipa?
However, I am now aware how little she wears on stage.
She went to school round the corner from me. Got to support a local lass.
One of the biggest musical stars in the world right now with multiple awards, so a big export earner for the UK.
Her parents were refugees from Kosovo. She seems to have integrated well into British culture.
“A foreword to the opinion written in 1991 by Lord Scarman, who served as a Law Lord in the precursor to the Supreme Court, said it would “encourage a challenge which could be mounted by taking the argument to the [ECHR]… if ever a government should seek to abolish or discriminate against [private schools]”.
“The opinion was jointly written by Lord Lester and Lord Pannick as advice for the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and later published in its journal. Lord Pannick confirmed his belief that the argument still stands today.
“It has been suggested previous Labour proposals to impose VAT on private schools under Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot’s leadership of the party were dropped following an earlier legal warning in 1982.
“Writing in The Times in 2019, Lord Lester said: “In 1982 [Lord] David Pannick and I advised the school governing bodies that Labour’s plan would violate the European Convention on Human Rights and its first protocol. Our opinion was published. No one disputed our advice and the policy was dropped.”
“The policy failed to appear in Labour’s next manifesto at the June 1987 election under Neil Kinnock’s leadership. The legal opinion was given in April of that year.”
Breaking: Rishi Sunak abandoned his “legacy” policy to ban smoking for future generations amid a backlash from the tobacco industry in the form of legal threats, lobbying and a charm offensive aimed at Conservative MPs, an investigation reveals.
The UK had been on course to become the first country to ban smoking for future generations, via the tobacco and vaping bill, which Downing Street hoped would help define Sunak’s place in British political history.
An investigation by the Guardian and the Examination, a non-profit newsroom that investigates global health threats, has uncovered how the UK’s largest cigarette companies fought against the policy, which would have raised the smoking age by one year every year.
In this context, "abandoned" means "excluded from the 'wash-up' process", so that it wasn't passed before the dissolution of parliament.
Kind of weird that Sunak wanted it to be his legacy and then let it go so easily. Genuinely would have been a great legacy for generations to come.
Could Obama et. al. coming out in support of Biden be the orchestrated first step in preparing the way for Biden to step down gracefully with honour on his "own terms", rather than being hounded in a chorus of derision after a bad performance.
HY is often a wise psephologist but I’m not sure he’s right on the impact of the debate.
If anything, this poll could show that it has been bad for both leaders (which is what I’d have taken from it) though it’s MoE stuff really.
The big dial movers have been: D-Day; Farage; betting.
But the dial hasn't moved much. The main development has been a small drop in support for the biggest two parties and an increase for Reform and to a lesser extent LD and Green.
This to me is consistent with the growing belief amongst the electorate that the result of the election is widely assumed to be known, and traditional supporters of the big two feel increasingly safe about the idea of voting for another, whether it be for tactical reasons or because it more closely approximates their true political convictions.
If I am right, the trend will continue until polling day. Support for Labour and Conservatice will continue to fray at the edges. Reform/LDs/Green will not fall back and may even improve. On the whole this will not do much damage to Labour. Starmer will win a big majority. (For some reason I have the figure of 254 in mind but can't think why! ) The Tories will be badly hurt, and are unlikely to break 100. They may even drop below 50. Reform might win a busload, but probably won't because their ground game is poor. LDs will be above 50, and may become the Official opposition.
Greens will do well. I'm thinking of buying them on the Spreads. You sure as hell can't lose much.
“A foreword to the opinion written in 1991 by Lord Scarman, who served as a Law Lord in the precursor to the Supreme Court, said it would “encourage a challenge which could be mounted by taking the argument to the [ECHR]… if ever a government should seek to abolish or discriminate against [private schools]”.
“The opinion was jointly written by Lord Lester and Lord Pannick as advice for the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and later published in its journal. Lord Pannick confirmed his belief that the argument still stands today.
“It has been suggested previous Labour proposals to impose VAT on private schools under Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot’s leadership of the party were dropped following an earlier legal warning in 1982.
“Writing in The Times in 2019, Lord Lester said: “In 1982 [Lord] David Pannick and I advised the school governing bodies that Labour’s plan would violate the European Convention on Human Rights and its first protocol. Our opinion was published. No one disputed our advice and the policy was dropped.”
“The policy failed to appear in Labour’s next manifesto at the June 1987 election under Neil Kinnock’s leadership. The legal opinion was given in April of that year.”
It's bizarre to me how many laws seem to overreach into other areas. How on earth could there be a human right to a private school free of VAT?
“A foreword to the opinion written in 1991 by Lord Scarman, who served as a Law Lord in the precursor to the Supreme Court, said it would “encourage a challenge which could be mounted by taking the argument to the [ECHR]… if ever a government should seek to abolish or discriminate against [private schools]”.
“The opinion was jointly written by Lord Lester and Lord Pannick as advice for the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and later published in its journal. Lord Pannick confirmed his belief that the argument still stands today.
“It has been suggested previous Labour proposals to impose VAT on private schools under Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot’s leadership of the party were dropped following an earlier legal warning in 1982.
“Writing in The Times in 2019, Lord Lester said: “In 1982 [Lord] David Pannick and I advised the school governing bodies that Labour’s plan would violate the European Convention on Human Rights and its first protocol. Our opinion was published. No one disputed our advice and the policy was dropped.”
“The policy failed to appear in Labour’s next manifesto at the June 1987 election under Neil Kinnock’s leadership. The legal opinion was given in April of that year.”
The fact that Finland is a party to the ECHR and doesn't allow private schools to charge at all, suggests that charging VAT on private school fees would not be illegal.
@BarackObama 'Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November' https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
@BillClinton 'I’ll leave the debate rating to the pundits, but here’s what I know: facts and history matter. Joe Biden has given us 3 years of solid leadership, steadying us after the pandemic, creating a record number of new jobs, making real progress solving the climate crisis, and launching a successful effort in reducing inflation, all while pulling us out of the quagmire Donald Trump left us in. That’s what’s really at stake in November.' https://x.com/BillClinton/status/1806793781070729466
@HillaryClinton 'The choice in this election remains very simple.
It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.
Keep silent. Keep your peace at least over this weekend and see what the wider party thinks. FFS.
What matters is what they're saying to him privately.
They'd be saying exactly what they're saying now if they meant it - but also if they were looking to provide him with a gracious way out, where he can stand down of his own accord.
Now, it may well be that he won't take that opportunity, in which case the Democrats will need to decide whether they stick with him and lose, or try to force him out by withdrawing confidence and making his candidature unviable. But that option can be put off for a week or two, though not longer.
Maybe Bill is the one person who can reach him?
Or maybe Michelle can speak to his wife?
The world is waiting. This is far too important to be left to drift.
The Atlantic on the mechanism to change from Biden.
South West Norfolk: Liz Truss 6/5 Richmond: Rishi Sunak 4/9 Fareham and Waterlooville: Suella Braverman 1/2 North West Essex: Kemi Badenoch 1/9 Witham: Priti Patel 1/6 Godalming: Jeremy Hunt 10/3 Tonbridge: Tom Tugendhat 1/5 Portsmouth North: Penny Mordaunt 7/4 Louth and Horncastle: Victoria Atkins 1/3 Newark: Robert Jenrick 6/4 Melksham and Devizes: Danny Kruger 1/2 Hertsmere: Oliver Dowden 2/5
Excellent list.
If PBers had to choose only one who would crawl out of the wreckage to lead their tiny party whom would it be??
I kinda of think Kruger would the most interesting and set the possible direction of the country off in a new way. He's like Blue Labour sleeps with deep green/conservationism/Christian values.
Kruger would quite possibly be the worst of all of the ones on that list, excepting maybe Suella and on par with Jenrick. Disastrous for the Tories.
He’s not on the list but Cleverly would be their best bet imvho.
Surely it is Dowden from that list?
Btw, Tonbridge looks a decent bet for an LD gain. I like Tugendhat, but I think he is struggling to hold the seat.
“A foreword to the opinion written in 1991 by Lord Scarman, who served as a Law Lord in the precursor to the Supreme Court, said it would “encourage a challenge which could be mounted by taking the argument to the [ECHR]… if ever a government should seek to abolish or discriminate against [private schools]”.
“The opinion was jointly written by Lord Lester and Lord Pannick as advice for the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and later published in its journal. Lord Pannick confirmed his belief that the argument still stands today.
“It has been suggested previous Labour proposals to impose VAT on private schools under Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot’s leadership of the party were dropped following an earlier legal warning in 1982.
“Writing in The Times in 2019, Lord Lester said: “In 1982 [Lord] David Pannick and I advised the school governing bodies that Labour’s plan would violate the European Convention on Human Rights and its first protocol. Our opinion was published. No one disputed our advice and the policy was dropped.”
“The policy failed to appear in Labour’s next manifesto at the June 1987 election under Neil Kinnock’s leadership. The legal opinion was given in April of that year.”
It's bizarre to me how many laws seem to overreach into other areas. How on earth could there be a human right to a private school free of VAT?
It’s part of the recent trend to pass what amount to constitutional laws, that have an impact on other legislation. The Human Right Act is probably the most famous example, but various Equality Acts and Enviroment Acts are the same. The come from a point of view that they’re trying to make the world and the country a better place, but the reality is that they constrain government’s ability to legislate as they see fit.
That Labour have tried to impose VAT on school fees before, and been told by eminent lawyers not to go down that legislative minefield, is perhaps instructive.
Perhaps the result will be cross-party agreement that ECHR withdrawal is good for the country.
It was widely assumed on here that there would be the customary reduction in the gap between the Big Two once the Election was called and we closed in on the actual election date. The assumption was understandable. It has tended to happen in the past, and past form is always the best guide to future performance.
Swingback is not an iron law, however. It comes with no guarantee. If things are different, the usual pattern does not necessarily apply. What's different this time?
Well, it's the first time in my experience that the answer to the Big Question is widely known, more so even than it was in 1997. The electorate is more sophisticated now. Polling has advanced, even though it will never be precise. We can be certain however that it is not 20 points out.
So no need to fear that your vote is going to let in The Blue Meanies again, or The Red Menace, nor even the somewhat unlikely and unthreatening Yellow Peril. No reason at all not to vote for who you want.
In these circumstances I see no reason for Swingback to apply. You may even see some Swingaway.
HY is often a wise psephologist but I’m not sure he’s right on the impact of the debate.
If anything, this poll could show that it has been bad for both leaders (which is what I’d have taken from it) though it’s MoE stuff really.
The big dial movers have been: D-Day; Farage; betting.
But the dial hasn't moved much. The main development has been a small drop in support for the biggest two parties and an increase for Reform and to a lesser extent LD and Green.
This to me is consistent with the growing belief amongst the electorate that the result of the election is widely assumed to be known, and traditional supporters of the big two feel increasingly safe about the idea of voting for another, whether it be for tactical reasons or because it more closely approximates their true political convictions.
If I am right, the trend will continue until polling day. Support for Labour and Conservatice will continue to fray at the edges. Reform/LDs/Green will not fall back and may even improve. On the whole this will not do much damage to Labour. Starmer will win a big majority. (For some reason I have the figure of 254 in mind but can't think why! ) The Tories will be badly hurt, and are unlikely to break 100. They may even drop below 50. Reform might win a busload, but probably won't because their ground game is poor. LDs will be above 50, and may become the Official opposition.
Greens will do well. I'm thinking of buying them on the Spreads. You sure as hell can't lose much.
Oh, and Swingback ain't happening.
Some election anecdata:
I was out for a work leaving do last night for one of our managers, and chatted to a few of my colleagues about the election. One didn't know there was an election next week, though being Egyptian cannot vote anyway. A further one wanted to vote out the Tory in Hinckley and Bosworth, but wasn't keen on Labour because of school fees. I might have persuaded her for the LDs who some MRP have as the challenger in that seat. A third will be voting Tory as she likes Sunak and dislikes Starmer, she didn't mention policy at all. She doesn't know which constituency she is in.
“A foreword to the opinion written in 1991 by Lord Scarman, who served as a Law Lord in the precursor to the Supreme Court, said it would “encourage a challenge which could be mounted by taking the argument to the [ECHR]… if ever a government should seek to abolish or discriminate against [private schools]”.
“The opinion was jointly written by Lord Lester and Lord Pannick as advice for the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and later published in its journal. Lord Pannick confirmed his belief that the argument still stands today.
“It has been suggested previous Labour proposals to impose VAT on private schools under Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot’s leadership of the party were dropped following an earlier legal warning in 1982.
“Writing in The Times in 2019, Lord Lester said: “In 1982 [Lord] David Pannick and I advised the school governing bodies that Labour’s plan would violate the European Convention on Human Rights and its first protocol. Our opinion was published. No one disputed our advice and the policy was dropped.”
“The policy failed to appear in Labour’s next manifesto at the June 1987 election under Neil Kinnock’s leadership. The legal opinion was given in April of that year.”
It’s complete bullshit designed to generate legal fees for cases without a hope in hell of working. It’s the typical false hope I’ve seen being offered when it comes to anything connected to tax.
I could go into more details but just search for Dan Neidle’s twitter thread from yesterday where he pulls it apart
A long line of Democrat strategists and media are ‘encouraging’ the party to swap out Mr Biden for someone younger at their Convention, after his poor debate performance on Thursday night:
“A foreword to the opinion written in 1991 by Lord Scarman, who served as a Law Lord in the precursor to the Supreme Court, said it would “encourage a challenge which could be mounted by taking the argument to the [ECHR]… if ever a government should seek to abolish or discriminate against [private schools]”.
“The opinion was jointly written by Lord Lester and Lord Pannick as advice for the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and later published in its journal. Lord Pannick confirmed his belief that the argument still stands today.
“It has been suggested previous Labour proposals to impose VAT on private schools under Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot’s leadership of the party were dropped following an earlier legal warning in 1982.
“Writing in The Times in 2019, Lord Lester said: “In 1982 [Lord] David Pannick and I advised the school governing bodies that Labour’s plan would violate the European Convention on Human Rights and its first protocol. Our opinion was published. No one disputed our advice and the policy was dropped.”
“The policy failed to appear in Labour’s next manifesto at the June 1987 election under Neil Kinnock’s leadership. The legal opinion was given in April of that year.”
It's bizarre to me how many laws seem to overreach into other areas. How on earth could there be a human right to a private school free of VAT?
It’s part of the recent trend to pass what amount to constitutional laws, that have an impact on other legislation. The Human Right Act is probably the most famous example, but various Equality Acts and Enviroment Acts are the same. The come from a point of view that they’re trying to make the world and the country a better place, but the reality is that they constrain government’s ability to legislate as they see fit.
That Labour have tried to impose VAT on school fees before, and been told by eminent lawyers not to go down that legislative minefield, is perhaps instructive.
Perhaps the result will be cross-party agreement that ECHR withdrawal is good for the country.
Nope it’s bullshit. a combination of crap legal advice on tax and the (reversed) good law project claim (no chance of succeeding, but right wing rather than left wing politics).
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
It was widely assumed on here that there would be the customary reduction in the gap between the Big Two once the Election was called and we closed in on the actual election date. The assumption was understandable. It has tended to happen in the past, and past form is always the best guide to future performance.
Swingback is not an iron law, however. It comes with no guarantee. If things are different, the usual pattern does not necessarily apply. What's different this time?
Well, it's the first time in my experience that the answer to the Big Question is widely known, more so even than it was in 1997. The electorate is more sophisticated now. Polling has advanced, even though it will never be precise. We can be certain however that it is not 20 points out.
So no need to fear that your vote is going to let in The Blue Meanies again, or The Red Menace, nor even the somewhat unlikely and unthreatening Yellow Peril. No reason at all not to vote for who you want.
In these circumstances I see no reason for Swingback to apply. You may even see some Swingaway.
The other side of that is with victory so likely will Labour voters actually go out and vote.
I’d say 10% of Labour voters don’t turn out hat may drop the Labour vote from 41% to say 38% but increase the Tories from 19% to 21/22% and with that a fair number of extra seats.
It’s why I say the end result (Labour majority) is obvious but little else is
HY is often a wise psephologist but I’m not sure he’s right on the impact of the debate.
If anything, this poll could show that it has been bad for both leaders (which is what I’d have taken from it) though it’s MoE stuff really.
The big dial movers have been: D-Day; Farage; betting.
But the dial hasn't moved much. The main development has been a small drop in support for the biggest two parties and an increase for Reform and to a lesser extent LD and Green.
This to me is consistent with the growing belief amongst the electorate that the result of the election is widely assumed to be known, and traditional supporters of the big two feel increasingly safe about the idea of voting for another, whether it be for tactical reasons or because it more closely approximates their true political convictions.
If I am right, the trend will continue until polling day. Support for Labour and Conservatice will continue to fray at the edges. Reform/LDs/Green will not fall back and may even improve. On the whole this will not do much damage to Labour. Starmer will win a big majority. (For some reason I have the figure of 254 in mind but can't think why! ) The Tories will be badly hurt, and are unlikely to break 100. They may even drop below 50. Reform might win a busload, but probably won't because their ground game is poor. LDs will be above 50, and may become the Official opposition.
Greens will do well. I'm thinking of buying them on the Spreads. You sure as hell can't lose much.
Oh, and Swingback ain't happening.
Some election anecdata:
I was out for a work leaving do last night for one of our managers, and chatted to a few of my colleagues about the election. One didn't know there was an election next week, though being Egyptian cannot vote anyway. A further one wanted to vote out the Tory in Hinckley and Bosworth, but wasn't keen on Labour because of school fees. I might have persuaded her for the LDs who some MRP have as the challenger in that seat. A third will be voting Tory as she likes Sunak and dislikes Starmer, she didn't mention policy at all. She doesn't know which constituency she is in.
Lol! Such encounters are always salutary and often instructive.
Long ago I met voter who normally voted Labour but couldn't bring himself to vote for Kinnock because he had red hair. He was perfectly normal in every other respect. (The voter, that is.)
It’s Goodwin. His polls are designed to generate headlines and nothing more. Note that this poll shows LAB +5. No other poll shows anything like that. The guy is a clown.
But actually this poll is much more in line with other polls - it’s less of an outlier
Also I don’t buy that Goodwin is a “clown”. He’s not making shit up or lying. I’m sure he’s doing dedicated polling as best as he can - yes he clearly has a party position but his reputation also rests on his being reliable and truthful with stuff like this
An unknown bias creeping into his data? Perhaps. It happens. But actually clownish falsehoods? No
Moreover other polls are equally quirky. Some have reform down on 13% some on 21%. I wonder if the pollsters are having problems modelling such a weird and unique election
You are “sure he is doing dedicated polling as best he can”? Really? I remind you that he is the only BPC pollster we are allowed to question on here. And with good reason.
But this poll isn’t especially outlying
Look at the variations in the numbers. His surveys are all over the shop.
As much variation as Dua Lipa’s wardrobe changes in this Glastonbury set? #downwivthekidz
Is it very centrist grandad to admit they until this evening I had literally never heard of Ms Lipa?
However, I am now aware how little she wears on stage.
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
We will be studying this election for decades. The stupid election. The election where the powers that be didn’t even manage to get postal votes sent out, which piled on top of the chaos from start to finish just made the result even more appalling for the former party of government
It was widely assumed on here that there would be the customary reduction in the gap between the Big Two once the Election was called and we closed in on the actual election date. The assumption was understandable. It has tended to happen in the past, and past form is always the best guide to future performance.
Swingback is not an iron law, however. It comes with no guarantee. If things are different, the usual pattern does not necessarily apply. What's different this time?
Well, it's the first time in my experience that the answer to the Big Question is widely known, more so even than it was in 1997. The electorate is more sophisticated now. Polling has advanced, even though it will never be precise. We can be certain however that it is not 20 points out.
So no need to fear that your vote is going to let in The Blue Meanies again, or The Red Menace, nor even the somewhat unlikely and unthreatening Yellow Peril. No reason at all not to vote for who you want.
In these circumstances I see no reason for Swingback to apply. You may even see some Swingaway.
The other side of that is with victory so likely will Labour voters actually go out and vote.
I’d say 10% of Labour voters don’t turn out hat may drop the Labour vote from 41% to say 38% but increase the Tories from 19% to 21/22% and with that a fair number of extra seats.
It’s why I say the end result (Labour majority) is obvious but little else is
Please see my other longwinded post this morning.
Yes, I can easily see the Labour vote dropping by the amount you suggest, but why would it go to the Tories?
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
Paul Heaton - as good as ever especially with Fat Boy Slim making an appearance Seventeen - interesting, cameras didn’t know what to focus on though. expect to see BTS next year PJ Harvey - still PJ Harvey
And as you say Dua Lipa slick, enjoyable, but missing something
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
We will be studying this election for decades. The stupid election. The election where the powers that be didn’t even manage to get postal votes sent out, which piled on top of the chaos from start to finish just made the result even more appalling for the former party of government
And which was called during the summer when people were going off on holidays, and was unexpected and therefore took the government by surprise.
Future generations will study the fiasco and scratch their heads in disbelief.
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
Paul Heaton - as good as ever especially with Fat Boy Slim making an appearance Seventeen - interesting, cameras didn’t know what to focus on though. expect to see BTS next year PJ Harvey - still PJ Harvey
And as you say Dua Lipa slick, enjoyable, but missing something
It was widely assumed on here that there would be the customary reduction in the gap between the Big Two once the Election was called and we closed in on the actual election date. The assumption was understandable. It has tended to happen in the past, and past form is always the best guide to future performance.
Swingback is not an iron law, however. It comes with no guarantee. If things are different, the usual pattern does not necessarily apply. What's different this time?
Well, it's the first time in my experience that the answer to the Big Question is widely known, more so even than it was in 1997. The electorate is more sophisticated now. Polling has advanced, even though it will never be precise. We can be certain however that it is not 20 points out.
So no need to fear that your vote is going to let in The Blue Meanies again, or The Red Menace, nor even the somewhat unlikely and unthreatening Yellow Peril. No reason at all not to vote for who you want.
In these circumstances I see no reason for Swingback to apply. You may even see some Swingaway.
The other side of that is with victory so likely will Labour voters actually go out and vote.
I’d say 10% of Labour voters don’t turn out hat may drop the Labour vote from 41% to say 38% but increase the Tories from 19% to 21/22% and with that a fair number of extra seats.
It’s why I say the end result (Labour majority) is obvious but little else is
Please see my other longwinded post this morning.
Yes, I can easily see the Labour vote dropping by the amount you suggest, but why would it go to the Tories?
You've drunk the Swingback kool-aid, haven't you.
50000 voters 20,000 vote Labour 40% share, 10000 Tory votes 20% share 4000 Labour votes don’t turn out so only 46000 people vote Those 10000 Tory voters are now 22% of the vote not 20% and no swing back has occurred
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
Paul Heaton - as good as ever especially with Fat Boy Slim making an appearance Seventeen - interesting, cameras didn’t know what to focus on though. expect to see BTS next year PJ Harvey - still PJ Harvey
And as you say Dua Lipa slick, enjoyable, but missing something
Agreed. I’ll try and catch up on Paul Heaton. Apparently Olivia Dean was really good too.
And yes PJ Harvey! I did watch some of hers.
I’m toooooo busy though at the mo’ argh.
p.s. as you probably know Fatboy Slim aka Norman Cook took violin lessons with … Keir Starmer
We've just seen a hedgehog in the garden; the first I've seen in the twelve years we've been here. It's moving about a little, and seems to be trying to hide (rather unsuccessfully) under a bush to sleep.
I was well used to seeing hedgehogs as a kid (both my childhood homes had regular visitors, and one had hedgehogs living in the small area of wasteland at the bottom of the garden.), but it still feels quite magical.
It's the first hedgehog my son's seen in the wild. And we saw it during his birthday breakfast!
(Sadly, he does not believe i arranged it for him as a birthday treat..)
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
Paul Heaton - as good as ever especially with Fat Boy Slim making an appearance Seventeen - interesting, cameras didn’t know what to focus on though. expect to see BTS next year PJ Harvey - still PJ Harvey
And as you say Dua Lipa slick, enjoyable, but missing something
It was widely assumed on here that there would be the customary reduction in the gap between the Big Two once the Election was called and we closed in on the actual election date. The assumption was understandable. It has tended to happen in the past, and past form is always the best guide to future performance.
Swingback is not an iron law, however. It comes with no guarantee. If things are different, the usual pattern does not necessarily apply. What's different this time?
Well, it's the first time in my experience that the answer to the Big Question is widely known, more so even than it was in 1997. The electorate is more sophisticated now. Polling has advanced, even though it will never be precise. We can be certain however that it is not 20 points out.
So no need to fear that your vote is going to let in The Blue Meanies again, or The Red Menace, nor even the somewhat unlikely and unthreatening Yellow Peril. No reason at all not to vote for who you want.
In these circumstances I see no reason for Swingback to apply. You may even see some Swingaway.
The other side of that is with victory so likely will Labour voters actually go out and vote.
I’d say 10% of Labour voters don’t turn out hat may drop the Labour vote from 41% to say 38% but increase the Tories from 19% to 21/22% and with that a fair number of extra seats.
It’s why I say the end result (Labour majority) is obvious but little else is
Please see my other longwinded post this morning.
Yes, I can easily see the Labour vote dropping by the amount you suggest, but why would it go to the Tories?
You've drunk the Swingback kool-aid, haven't you.
Is your 10% based on evidence or just 'i'd say' i would have thoought many more would be enthused by the prospect of kicking the tories out!
Good morning all. Managed to catch some bits of Glasto y’day but a busy day.
Kenya Grace - great The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun. Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
We will be studying this election for decades. The stupid election. The election where the powers that be didn’t even manage to get postal votes sent out, which piled on top of the chaos from start to finish just made the result even more appalling for the former party of government
I suspect councils have got postal votes automated and organised - so this is the election where it was revealed the royal mail can’t deliver post anymore
Comments
However, I am now aware how little she wears on stage.
Until then Biden not only can but must stay in the race as he remains the best the Democrats have got to beat Trump in the rustbelt
https://www.naushabahkhan.com/
There is nothing to lose.
He is not going to win a 2nd term.
As for people being wrong, I am frequently schooled here, and I am always the first to acknowledge when it happens. But more often than not, I'm right, and the reason is that far too many people here see their job as to 'add value' or 'fight the good fight' as they see it, rather than tell the truth. It's been obvious for months (years?) that Biden was a wreck for instance. Every person on PB knew this to be true, but they chose to fight the good fight and argue otherwise.
If PBers had to choose only one who would crawl out of the wreckage to lead their tiny party whom would it be??
I kinda of think Kruger would the most interesting and set the possible direction of the country off in a new way. He's like Blue Labour sleeps with deep green/conservationism/Christian values.
Don't get me wrong - US politics this year is more important than how badly the Tories are screwed next week, but it's very telling the extent to which it dominates our political discourse when there are far more immediate events happening closer to home.
The same could be said of the last years of Reagan, when he clearly was down the dementia train.
The reality is that - just like in the UK - the PM / President doesn't actually make that many decisions. And where they do get made, they are largely in rooms with people and with minutes.
A President with dementia just means that recommendations made by junior staffers get waved through without proper oversight. It doesn't mean someone else is really President.
Even better than The economist one earlier in the week
https://x.com/PopBase/status/1806807284934484417
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/28/tata-confirms-somerset-battery-factory-bridgwater
Having visited the town, it could certainly do with it. In theory it's in a good position on the M5, but it's been in decline for decades.
By the way, from your article:
So there absolutely were Bioweapons labs, funded by the US Department of Defense, in Ukraine. Their spin is that they're sinister, dangerous, world-threatening bioweapons labs - our spin is that they're happy, friendly peace-promoting bioweapons labs. But bioweapons labs is exactly what this article says they are.
There is a fine line sometimes. There was another happy clappy Biolab in Wuhan after all.
“Sir you have to decide in next 45 seconds whether or not to shoot down an aircraft, because after that it will already be too late and it will be over a populated area. The limited facts we have are xyz. Do we fire”?
@david_herdson The Carl Albert example is hysterically funny. I had reason to consult his papers in Oklahoma for research. The Watergate era was outside of my period of interest but you don’t waste the opportunity to have a read. The panic that set in when it was realised he could end up as Acting President was palpable in the memos and correspondence. They expedited Ford’s confirmation to resolve the situation. Of course, a few months later he found himself next in line again when Nixon stepped down. He wrote a letter to Ford (once he became President) pleading with him to pick a VP sharpish.
@MattW No. Don’t bookmark that. I know I’ll have overlooked something somewhere!
For example, Shropshire North. A seat currently held by LD MP Helen Morgan, with minor boundary changes only, after the 2021 by election with result LD 47, Con 32, Lab 10, Green 5, Reform 4. In those circumstances, even I have to admit that it's absolutely nailed on that the anti-Tory tactical vote will stay with the LDs. Yet Survation have the Conservatives regaining the seat with the LDs going from 1st to 4th place: Con 36, Lab 30, Reform 15, LD 10.
That's utter nonsense. Reality is reflected in the fact that you can't get better odds than 4/9 on for the LDs to win the seat.
There are no comparable US polls showing any Democrat polling any better than Biden v Trump
All books are VAT exempt. Novels, text books, basically any book you can buy that is actually printed is exempt from VAT. Same goes for newsapers and magazines. Ebooks were subject to VAT until 2020 when they were included in the exemption.
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-support-trump-hits-62-gop-primary
Margins vs Trump:
Harris -5
Biden -4
Newsom -4
Whitmer -2
Manchin -1
That was 4 years ago and Biden is not up to it now. Jeez - watch the videos.
I am as guilty as anyone of falling for the 'Biden is the guy, democracy saviour, he did it last time, he is Scranton - decent America, claw hammer on the hip/picket fence/pass me another corn dog/Elizabeth Montgomery etc'
Reluctantly.
As all of the NY Times huge list of opinion writers are.
This is over.
Move aside.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/09/michigan-poll-trump-biden-whitmer-00134672
In the kerfuffle of the last few days, nobody noticed that Scotland released its trans census data. Scotland, never missing a chance to be a bit awkward, decided to have its census later, release it later, and use a different trans question (England asked about gender identity, so did Wales but in Welsh also, Scotland asked "are you trans", and NI stayed *well* out of it). The E&W census came up with 0.5%, the GC group "Sex Matters" disputed it and came up with 0.4%, and the Scots number is (drum roll) 0.44% of the whole pop'n and ~0.47% of those who answered. And I'm sure that'll please everybody. 😀
The centres of trans population are Dundee 1st, then Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen, the latter of which at 0.58% is presumably of interest to our ANME candidate. It's most popular in the 20-24 age bands at around 1.6%.
Anyhoo, the data are here, so enjoy:
https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/2022-results/scotland-s-census-2022-sexual-orientation-and-trans-status-or-history/
Because the Dems are teary-eyed and feeling loyalty and emotion and solidarity and so on and on.
But Biden keeps telling us that democrcay is on the ballot.
So what could be more important? Stand aside and let the Dems decide a new candidate from a new generation
And - as I have been saying loudly - there's no comparison between Reagan's demeanor in 1984 and Biden's in 2024. Reagan was a bit rambly. Biden looks like a dementia patient whose dog just died.
"Kamala Harris Could Win This Election. Let Her."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/kamala-harris-biden-debate.html
https://x.com/drbiden/status/1806748252080927019
Because he looked like this:
https://x.com/rncresearch/status/1806737770070626640
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2024/06/biden-trump-debate-cnn
"Joe Biden’s last debate
After his disastrous performance against Donald Trump, the Democrats need a new nominee. Urgently.
By Katie Stallard"
If anything, this poll could show that it has been bad for both leaders (which is what I’d have taken from it) though it’s MoE stuff really.
The big dial movers have been: D-Day; Farage; betting.
The vast majority of Britons do not consider themselves to be racist and don’t want to associate themselves with a party they perceive to be so.
That said: my contention has always been that a lot of reform polling will not translate to actual votes on the day, mostly down to apathy. Reform = NOTA above for many, I feel.
He’s not on the list but Cleverly would be their best bet imvho.
No, I think it's genuinely fucking difficult.
Biden is about tied into the polling which isn't a terrible deficit, this may or may not look different in a week. He's good with boomers and blue-collar guys who other Dems can't reach. It's technically easy to switch to Kamala but she has no history of successful campaigns outside California and what data there is says she'd lose. Or you try to elbow her out of the way to get someone else, and that person is untested at the national level and may bollocks it up. Plus, you can't force Biden to drop out if he doesn't want to, all you can do is try to damage him enough that he gives up, and if that fails you've made things worse.
If he's definitely going to lose then you obviously want to do something high-variance, but that's not quite clear yet.
Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult, as they say in your country.
So, for the purposes of public debate, 1 out of every 200 of my fellow compatriots are trans*.
Now, a podcast series I listened to some time ago (I posted a link on here) - referencing anecdata from the Tavistock clinic, indicated that, while it used to be 2/3 natal males referred for gender counselling, these days it was 2/3 natal females.
Now you're good at statistics, @viewcode - so, what is the correct, current, fraction of trans* natal males vs females?
Is it;
1/300 Natal Males
1/150 Natal Females
Or am I shit at stats?
This time, I'm taking them with a pinch of salt.
https://www.galloways.co.uk/resources/guides/vat-on-printing/# has the gory details
(Also memorable as it was on the day of the Challenger disaster.)
The UK had been on course to become the first country to ban smoking for future generations, via the tobacco and vaping bill, which Downing Street hoped would help define Sunak’s place in British political history.
An investigation by the Guardian and the Examination, a non-profit newsroom that investigates global health threats, has uncovered how the UK’s largest cigarette companies fought against the policy, which would have raised the smoking age by one year every year.
Btw, Tonbridge looks a decent bet for an LD gain. I like Tugendhat, but I think he is struggling to hold the seat.
Her parents were refugees from Kosovo. She seems to have integrated well into British culture.
Labour’s private school tax raid ‘likely illegal’
Keir Starmer’s flagship policy could breach human rights law, top lawyers warn
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/labour-private-school-tax-raid-likely-illegal/
“A foreword to the opinion written in 1991 by Lord Scarman, who served as a Law Lord in the precursor to the Supreme Court, said it would “encourage a challenge which could be mounted by taking the argument to the [ECHR]… if ever a government should seek to abolish or discriminate against [private schools]”.
“The opinion was jointly written by Lord Lester and Lord Pannick as advice for the Independent Schools Council (ISC) and later published in its journal. Lord Pannick confirmed his belief that the argument still stands today.
“It has been suggested previous Labour proposals to impose VAT on private schools under Neil Kinnock and Michael Foot’s leadership of the party were dropped following an earlier legal warning in 1982.
“Writing in The Times in 2019, Lord Lester said: “In 1982 [Lord] David Pannick and I advised the school governing bodies that Labour’s plan would violate the European Convention on Human Rights and its first protocol. Our opinion was published. No one disputed our advice and the policy was dropped.”
“The policy failed to appear in Labour’s next manifesto at the June 1987 election under Neil Kinnock’s leadership. The legal opinion was given in April of that year.”
This to me is consistent with the growing belief amongst the electorate that the result of the election is widely assumed to be known, and traditional supporters of the big two feel increasingly safe about the idea of voting for another, whether it be for tactical reasons or because it more closely approximates their true political convictions.
If I am right, the trend will continue until polling day. Support for Labour and Conservatice will continue to fray at the edges. Reform/LDs/Green will not fall back and may even improve. On the whole this will not do much damage to Labour. Starmer will win a big majority. (For some reason I have the figure of 254 in mind but can't think why!
Greens will do well. I'm thinking of buying them on the Spreads. You sure as hell can't lose much.
Oh, and Swingback ain't happening.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/?gift=Q2xxhS27Csx4yHsp7QhJge-5aT3piEaYunhNwnhEiYQ&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
That Labour have tried to impose VAT on school fees before, and been told by eminent lawyers not to go down that legislative minefield, is perhaps instructive.
Perhaps the result will be cross-party agreement that ECHR withdrawal is good for the country.
It was widely assumed on here that there would be the customary reduction in the gap between the Big Two once the Election was called and we closed in on the actual election date. The assumption was understandable. It has tended to happen in the past, and past form is always the best guide to future performance.
Swingback is not an iron law, however. It comes with no guarantee. If things are different, the usual pattern does not necessarily apply. What's different this time?
Well, it's the first time in my experience that the answer to the Big Question is widely known, more so even than it was in 1997. The electorate is more sophisticated now. Polling has advanced, even though it will never be precise. We can be certain however that it is not 20 points out.
So no need to fear that your vote is going to let in The Blue Meanies again, or The Red Menace, nor even the somewhat unlikely and unthreatening Yellow Peril. No reason at all not to vote for who you want.
In these circumstances I see no reason for Swingback to apply. You may even see some Swingaway.
I was out for a work leaving do last night for one of our managers, and chatted to a few of my colleagues about the election. One didn't know there was an election next week, though being Egyptian cannot vote anyway. A further one wanted to vote out the Tory in Hinckley and Bosworth, but wasn't keen on Labour because of school fees. I might have persuaded her for the LDs who some MRP have as the challenger in that seat. A third will be voting Tory as she likes Sunak and dislikes Starmer, she didn't mention policy at all. She doesn't know which constituency she is in.
I could go into more details but just search for Dan Neidle’s twitter thread from yesterday where he pulls it apart
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/
Are the images all caricatures of real people? I only recognised a few.
Kenya Grace - great
The Vaccines - they still have it. Young crowd. Great fun.
Dua Lipa - very slick pop performance, highly choreographed. But slightly presentational imho. Still love her though.
Will try and catch up on some more
I will send off my postal vote today. There are widespread reports of issues. Personally I think sending out postal votes less than 2 weeks before the day is quite bad because for many people the whole point is to cover the fact that you may be away. The “Chaos” (their word) has made the front page of today’s Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/general-election-postal-votes-marginal-seats/
They’re even suggesting some results could be challenged. Eeek.
I’d say 10% of Labour voters don’t turn out hat may drop the Labour vote from 41% to say 38% but increase the Tories from 19% to 21/22% and with that a fair number of extra seats.
It’s why I say the end result (Labour majority) is obvious but little else is
Long ago I met voter who normally voted Labour but couldn't bring himself to vote for Kinnock because he had red hair. He was perfectly normal in every other respect. (The voter, that is.)
Yes, I can easily see the Labour vote dropping by the amount you suggest, but why would it go to the Tories?
You've drunk the Swingback kool-aid, haven't you.
Seventeen - interesting, cameras didn’t know what to focus on though. expect to see BTS next year
PJ Harvey - still PJ Harvey
And as you say Dua Lipa slick, enjoyable, but missing something
Future generations will study the fiasco and scratch their heads in disbelief.
20,000 vote Labour 40% share, 10000 Tory votes 20% share
4000 Labour votes don’t turn out so only 46000 people vote
Those 10000 Tory voters are now 22% of the vote not 20% and no swing back has occurred
And yes PJ Harvey! I did watch some of hers.
I’m toooooo busy though at the mo’ argh.
p.s. as you probably know Fatboy Slim aka Norman Cook took violin lessons with … Keir Starmer
We've just seen a hedgehog in the garden; the first I've seen in the twelve years we've been here. It's moving about a little, and seems to be trying to hide (rather unsuccessfully) under a bush to sleep.
I was well used to seeing hedgehogs as a kid (both my childhood homes had regular visitors, and one had hedgehogs living in the small area of wasteland at the bottom of the garden.), but it still feels quite magical.
It's the first hedgehog my son's seen in the wild. And we saw it during his birthday breakfast!
(Sadly, he does not believe i arranged it for him as a birthday treat..)
Dua Lipa slick but soulless.