Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
It is rumoured (yes it is a conspiracy theory - sue me) that the Obamas are the effective Presidential figures of the Biden administration, the way that Lord Cameron appears to have come in lately to run the Sunak Government. At the very least, we know that they have not left Washington to settle elsewhere as has been the convention - they seem to remain powerful players, with Obama visiting the UK recently.
If it's true, that situation (rather than Harris being the real power behind the throne as might be expected) must surely make a Michelle run a stronger likelihood than nil. Why run things through Harris when she appears less popular and less capable than Michelle anyway?
I just can’t believe any of the seat modellers can cope with these Tory/Reform/LibDem splits in any seat other than the ones Labour is going to walk (380-400 of them).
It might split such that Labour gets 700 seats in the 650 seat chamber, but I can’t help feeling that at some point the Tory collapse helps Reform get lots of seats just like the Liberals.
There must be a way for a pollster to gather more data. Something around tweaking the categorisation in the MRPs to not make certain baked in assumptions that rely on a broadly similar split.
Labour won't be walking 400 seats if they dip under 40 to 38 or so on the day, they'll win most of them but they'll be vulnerable to failing in some and challenges from Reform, Galloway etc in others as vote efficiency declines. We may well find some very weird holds and crazy gains. Survation, for example, has Orpington and Romford going red but Chelsea staying blue
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
To be a candidate surely you have to be convincing in your health that you can at least do 4 years . Is anyone seriously suggesting Biden in another 4 years will be coherent enough to be President? It is most odd that he has become the Democratic candidate
Well, I'm not sure Biden can manage four months, let alone four years.
But it's the power of incumbency. There was no mechanism for removing Biden without challenging him in the Primaries. And it was incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters to go after a sitting President.
Biden should have announced he was stepping down last October, and let the Democrats have a proper Primary. But he didn't, and now they are in a serious pickle.
Personally, I think they only option they have - should they want to get rid of Biden - is Harris. And while she's pretty shit, she's also compis mentis. And compis mentis and shit beats senile, especially when the senility gets worse by the day.
(Note also, if Biden keels over, then Harris takes over as President. That means she essentially inherits the nomination. She's a clear buy for next President.)
The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast
Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
It is rumoured (yes it is a conspiracy theory - sue me) that the Obamas are the effective Presidential figures of the Biden administration, the way that Lord Cameron appears to have come in lately to run the Sunak Government. At the very least, we know that they have not left Washington to settle elsewhere as has been the convention - they seem to remain powerful players, with Obama visiting the UK recently.
If it's true, that situation (rather than Harris being the real power behind the throne as might be expected) must surely make a Michelle run a stronger likelihood than nil. Why run things through Harris when she appears less popular and less capable than Michelle anyway?
I wish that were true, because the Obama White House, while I wasn't that keen on its policy positions, was full of serious people like Jen Pataki and Rahm Emanuel. That's not true this time around.
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
To be a candidate surely you have to be convincing in your health that you can at least do 4 years . Is anyone seriously suggesting Biden in another 4 years will be coherent enough to be President? It is most odd that he has become the Democratic candidate
Well, I'm not sure Biden can manage four months, let alone four years.
But it's the power of incumbency. There was no mechanism for removing Biden without challenging him in the Primaries. And it was incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters to go after a sitting President.
Biden should have announced he was stepping down last October, and let the Democrats have a proper Primary. But he didn't, and now they are in a serious pickle.
Personally, I think they only option they have - should they want to get rid of Biden - is Harris. And while she's pretty shit, she's also compis mentis. And compis mentis and shit beats senile, especially when the senility gets worse by the day.
(Note also, if Biden keels over, then Harris takes over as President. That means she essentially inherits the nomination. She's a clear buy for next President.)
The question is, who benefits from the President being cognitively challenged and having to have someone else be a secret Prime Minister doing all the work and decisions behind the scenes?
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
Sorry but if we accept Obama's characterisation of the main players, it is still preferable for America to elect a shit than someone medically incapapable. They're essentially asking the public to vote in a vegetable because he's nicer.
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
To be a candidate surely you have to be convincing in your health that you can at least do 4 years . Is anyone seriously suggesting Biden in another 4 years will be coherent enough to be President? It is most odd that he has become the Democratic candidate
Well, I'm not sure Biden can manage four months, let alone four years.
But it's the power of incumbency. There was no mechanism for removing Biden without challenging him in the Primaries. And it was incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters to go after a sitting President.
Biden should have announced he was stepping down last October, and let the Democrats have a proper Primary. But he didn't, and now they are in a serious pickle.
Personally, I think they only option they have - should they want to get rid of Biden - is Harris. And while she's pretty shit, she's also compis mentis. And compis mentis and shit beats senile, especially when the senility gets worse by the day.
(Note also, if Biden keels over, then Harris takes over as President. That means she essentially inherits the nomination. She's a clear buy for next President.)
The question is, who benefits from the President being cognitively challenged and having to have someone else be a secret Prime Minister doing all the work and decisions behind the scenes?
Never attribute to malice that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
It is rumoured (yes it is a conspiracy theory - sue me) that the Obamas are the effective Presidential figures of the Biden administration, the way that Lord Cameron appears to have come in lately to run the Sunak Government. At the very least, we know that they have not left Washington to settle elsewhere as has been the convention - they seem to remain powerful players, with Obama visiting the UK recently.
If it's true, that situation (rather than Harris being the real power behind the throne as might be expected) must surely make a Michelle run a stronger likelihood than nil. Why run things through Harris when she appears less popular and less capable than Michelle anyway?
I wish that were true, because the Obama White House, while I wasn't that keen on its policy positions, was full of serious people like Jen Pataki and Rahm Emanuel. That's not true this time around.
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
To be a candidate surely you have to be convincing in your health that you can at least do 4 years . Is anyone seriously suggesting Biden in another 4 years will be coherent enough to be President? It is most odd that he has become the Democratic candidate
Well, I'm not sure Biden can manage four months, let alone four years.
But it's the power of incumbency. There was no mechanism for removing Biden without challenging him in the Primaries. And it was incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters to go after a sitting President.
Biden should have announced he was stepping down last October, and let the Democrats have a proper Primary. But he didn't, and now they are in a serious pickle.
Personally, I think they only option they have - should they want to get rid of Biden - is Harris. And while she's pretty shit, she's also compis mentis. And compis mentis and shit beats senile, especially when the senility gets worse by the day.
(Note also, if Biden keels over, then Harris takes over as President. That means she essentially inherits the nomination. She's a clear buy for next President.)
Will be interesting if there is a load of polling to see if, given the choice, people would vote for senile Biden or a functioning Harris. If it was marginal or massively one way or another then it gives the Dems the answer I guess.
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
That’s pretty much it, isn’t it? Biden is the NOM
Stupid, lying Democrat fucks. It is very hard to feel sorry for any of them. They lied about lab leak, they lied about Hunter Biden, they lied about Biden’s fitness for office. They are scum and they are habitual scum
They are barely better than Trump, it really is getting quite hard to justify why BIDEN is better than Trump as the next president, can someone please remind me
The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast
Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner
It was never going to be the case that Biden was suddenly going to come out and stand down immediately after the debate. But notice the shift in Democratic-leaning circles now. It’s gone from cautious support of Biden to outright calls for him to exit the stage.
That is a groundswell that I think will continue to grow.
I do not think the Democratic establishment will let this wait until the convention. Yes the decision is Biden’s, but if the party tells him he has to go, I think he will.
The rubicon has been crossed. The die has been cast. The Democrats now know they face defeat with Biden or they can try to spin the wheel. This is not going to get better for them until that choice is made. Certain defeat, or a possible way out.
The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast
Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
To be a candidate surely you have to be convincing in your health that you can at least do 4 years . Is anyone seriously suggesting Biden in another 4 years will be coherent enough to be President? It is most odd that he has become the Democratic candidate
Well, I'm not sure Biden can manage four months, let alone four years.
But it's the power of incumbency. There was no mechanism for removing Biden without challenging him in the Primaries. And it was incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters to go after a sitting President.
Biden should have announced he was stepping down last October, and let the Democrats have a proper Primary. But he didn't, and now they are in a serious pickle.
Personally, I think they only option they have - should they want to get rid of Biden - is Harris. And while she's pretty shit, she's also compis mentis. And compis mentis and shit beats senile, especially when the senility gets worse by the day.
(Note also, if Biden keels over, then Harris takes over as President. That means she essentially inherits the nomination. She's a clear buy for next President.)
The question is, who benefits from the President being cognitively challenged and having to have someone else be a secret Prime Minister doing all the work and decisions behind the scenes?
Never attribute to malice that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.
True, but whilst we should probably accept that circumstances not design have led us here (how would they force Biden to have dementia) it is very valid to ask who is the real President and why isn't he standing for election as such. It's like voting a 12 year old into office. Who are you actually voting for, and how do you hold them to account?
The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast
Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast
Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
That’s pretty much it, isn’t it? Biden is the NOM
Stupid, lying Democrat fucks. It is very hard to feel sorry for any of them. They lied about lab leak, they lied about Hunter Biden, they lied about Biden’s fitness for office. They are scum and they are habitual scum
They are barely better than Trump, it really is getting quite hard to justify why BIDEN is better than Trump as the next president, can someone please remind me
Fuck it. Civil War. Sort it out with guns
Have you seen the movie, Civil War, that came out this year?
The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast
Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
Sorry but if we accept Obama's characterisation of the main players, it is still preferable for America to elect a shit than someone medically incapapable. They're essentially asking the public to vote in a vegetable because he's nicer.
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
That’s pretty much it, isn’t it? Biden is the NOM
Stupid, lying Democrat fucks. It is very hard to feel sorry for any of them. They lied about lab leak, they lied about Hunter Biden, they lied about Biden’s fitness for office. They are scum and they are habitual scum
They are barely better than Trump, it really is getting quite hard to justify why BIDEN is better than Trump as the next president, can someone please remind me
Fuck it. Civil War. Sort it out with guns
Obama! He is right! Shame we cannot have him back!
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
There are some pretty big differences between the polls.
Incidentally this Breton trip reaffirms my now long held conviction about French food
Stick to absolute basics - things they can’t fuck up - good croissants, oysters, moules frites, it’s still very pleasant. As soon as the chefs get “creative” it is actively BAD. Repetitive, nervous, slightly weird, and they all do the same things, A kind of herding
You’d be pissed off if you got this crap in a London gastropub
Yes we have. Labour could really do with 40%+ to shut the Corbynistas up. It’s like batting averages. 40+ good, less than than a bit mediocre.
Lib Dems really really need to get 12%+
For the LibDems to finish second, the likes of Electoral Calculus and others appear to indicate that the Orange team do indeed require to secure at least 12% of the vote and limit the Tories to a maximum of around 19%. Clearly how well or otherwise Labour and Reform each performs also impacts to a greater or lesser extent.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
MiC much closer to Survation then, with Reform and Labour down and the Tories and LDs up
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
Sorry but if we accept Obama's characterisation of the main players, it is still preferable for America to elect a shit than someone medically incapapable. They're essentially asking the public to vote in a vegetable because he's nicer.
Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.
(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.
(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.
So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.
But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.
In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.
The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,
To be a candidate surely you have to be convincing in your health that you can at least do 4 years . Is anyone seriously suggesting Biden in another 4 years will be coherent enough to be President? It is most odd that he has become the Democratic candidate
Well, I'm not sure Biden can manage four months, let alone four years.
But it's the power of incumbency. There was no mechanism for removing Biden without challenging him in the Primaries. And it was incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters to go after a sitting President.
Biden should have announced he was stepping down last October, and let the Democrats have a proper Primary. But he didn't, and now they are in a serious pickle.
Personally, I think they only option they have - should they want to get rid of Biden - is Harris. And while she's pretty shit, she's also compis mentis. And compis mentis and shit beats senile, especially when the senility gets worse by the day.
(Note also, if Biden keels over, then Harris takes over as President. That means she essentially inherits the nomination. She's a clear buy for next President.)
The question is, who benefits from the President being cognitively challenged and having to have someone else be a secret Prime Minister doing all the work and decisions behind the scenes?
Never attribute to malice that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.
True, but whilst we should probably accept that circumstances not design have led us here (how would they force Biden to have dementia) it is very valid to ask who is the real President and why isn't he standing for election as such. It's like voting a 12 year old into office. Who are you actually voting for, and how do you hold them to account?
The world is an ad-hocracy.
At any moment in time, millions of people take the path of least resistance, what is easiest, what gets them into least trouble right now.
And that's true in the White House and Number 10 and pretty much everywhere else.
It was true under Trump, and it's true under Biden, and it'll be true under whoever is next.
Obama isn't pulling the strings of people in the White House, because that doesn't benefit person A right now in their desire to get through today in one piece.
Biden is the nominee, senile as he is, for exactly that reason. It's because it's the path of least resistance not to try and get rid of the nominee.
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
Sorry but if we accept Obama's characterisation of the main players, it is still preferable for America to elect a shit than someone medically incapapable. They're essentially asking the public to vote in a vegetable because he's nicer.
I just can’t believe any of the seat modellers can cope with these Tory/Reform/LibDem splits in any seat other than the ones Labour is going to walk (380-400 of them).
It might split such that Labour gets 700 seats in the 650 seat chamber, but I can’t help feeling that at some point the Tory collapse helps Reform get lots of seats just like the Liberals.
There must be a way for a pollster to gather more data. Something around tweaking the categorisation in the MRPs to not make certain baked in assumptions that rely on a broadly similar split.
Labour won't be walking 400 seats if they dip under 40 to 38 or so on the day, they'll win most of them but they'll be vulnerable to failing in some and challenges from Reform, Galloway etc in others as vote efficiency declines. We may well find some very weird holds and crazy gains. Survation, for example, has Orpington and Romford going red but Chelsea staying blue
I am quietly hopeful this will be another one where we’ll be in the money on here as the numbers play out. Some media “surprises” will be predictable with the right data.
Incidentally this Breton trip reaffirms my now long held conviction about French food
Stick to absolute basics - things they can’t fuck up - good croissants, oysters, moules frites, it’s still very pleasant. As soon as the chefs get “creative” it is actively BAD. Repetitive, nervous, slightly weird, and they all do the same things, A kind of herding
You’d be pissed off if you got this crap in a London gastropub
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
2010 was 36.1% to 29.7% and a hung parliament of course. Not hugely different compared to this poll.
At the start of the campaign I thought that the inefficiency in the Tories' vote would hurt them. By inefficiency I mean seats like those in my original home patch of Worcestershire which were won with 55% of the vote in 1983 but won with 65% in 2019. Now I think it will save them from some of the worst case scenarios in that they will at least be holding these kind of seats.
Wells is an interesting seat in that there's a local councillor who has been running a campaign for a long time, will be very interesting to see what purchase she can get. Wonder if she could do a Claire Wright and depress the LD vote enough to let the Tories slip through?
I think Reform will quite significantly underperform their polling on the night.
I agree - I think their vote has materialised a lot over the past few weeks, but we're talking 5% to maybe 12%. If so I will be drinking well until the next GE.
From the Telegraph's reporting of the Tory broadcast:
“They’ll unleash all sorts, nuclear disarmament, French style, union laws, open borders with Europe”
Is that a stray comma, or are we all going to have to dress très chic from now on?
I hope they don't unleash French style too quickly, my beret and breton tee-shirt are at the cleaners.
Worse than that it’s French style, super-Mario tache Ange.
French style weather though. That would be nice. Choice of everything between apocalyptic Provençal heat and depressing Pas de Calais grisaille, via thunderstorms in the centre.
At the start of the campaign I thought that the inefficiency in the Tories' vote would hurt them. By inefficiency I mean seats like those in my original home patch of Worcestershire which were won with 55% of the vote in 1983 but won with 65% in 2019. Now I think it will save them from some of the worst case scenarios in that they will at least be holding these kind of seats.
I just can’t believe any of the seat modellers can cope with these Tory/Reform/LibDem splits in any seat other than the ones Labour is going to walk (380-400 of them).
It might split such that Labour gets 700 seats in the 650 seat chamber, but I can’t help feeling that at some point the Tory collapse helps Reform get lots of seats just like the Liberals.
There must be a way for a pollster to gather more data. Something around tweaking the categorisation in the MRPs to not make certain baked in assumptions that rely on a broadly similar split.
Labour won't be walking 400 seats if they dip under 40 to 38 or so on the day, they'll win most of them but they'll be vulnerable to failing in some and challenges from Reform, Galloway etc in others as vote efficiency declines. We may well find some very weird holds and crazy gains. Survation, for example, has Orpington and Romford going red but Chelsea staying blue
I am quietly hopeful this will be another one where we’ll be in the money on here as the numbers play out. Some media “surprises” will be predictable with the right data.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 50m YORKSHIRE POST: Sunak pledges to stay on as MP if he wins seat #TomorrowsPapersToday
Just a genuine and total laugh out loud.
Is it not about the third or fourth time he's pledged that?
It might be that he's trying extra hard to persuade his constituents to turn out and make sure they get rid of him. Then he'll be free to sell up and move to Los Angeles.
I think Reform will quite significantly underperform their polling on the night.
I *know* they will. That gives the Tories at least 3-4%, possibly 5-6%, but I think it also gives Labour 1%. The Greens have to cease their gravity defying 7-8% ratings at some point and will yield 2-3% to Labour and 1% to the Lib Dems too.
The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast
Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
2010 was 36.1% to 29.7% and a hung parliament of course. Not hugely different compared to this poll.
Correction: hugely different to this poll. The only similarity is scores starting with a 3 and a 2.
I just can’t believe any of the seat modellers can cope with these Tory/Reform/LibDem splits in any seat other than the ones Labour is going to walk (380-400 of them).
It might split such that Labour gets 700 seats in the 650 seat chamber, but I can’t help feeling that at some point the Tory collapse helps Reform get lots of seats just like the Liberals.
There must be a way for a pollster to gather more data. Something around tweaking the categorisation in the MRPs to not make certain baked in assumptions that rely on a broadly similar split.
Labour won't be walking 400 seats if they dip under 40 to 38 or so on the day, they'll win most of them but they'll be vulnerable to failing in some and challenges from Reform, Galloway etc in others as vote efficiency declines. We may well find some very weird holds and crazy gains. Survation, for example, has Orpington and Romford going red but Chelsea staying blue
I am quietly hopeful this will be another one where we’ll be in the money on here as the numbers play out. Some media “surprises” will be predictable with the right data.
I'm hoping to put together a spreadsheet to give us indications from early decs which seats downstream are likely to differ to the markets' wisdom. No promises but if I do, I'll share.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
2010 was 36.1% to 29.7% and a hung parliament of course. Not hugely different compared to this poll.
Given my legacy NOM position on Betfair, if that happens I apologise in advance for the levels of pure joy I will be feeling.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
That's close to what I am expecting - a few more off Reform and a couple more to the Tories by polling day.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
That's close to what I am expecting - a few more off Reform and a couple more to the Tories by polling day.
Reform have an ugly stench around them now on racism, Putinism and Farage strops.
I can't see too many sensible British people going for them on the day, in reality.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
That's close to what I am expecting - a few more off Reform and a couple more to the Tories by polling day.
Reform have an ugly stench around them now on racism, Putinism and Farage strops.
I can't see too many sensible British people going for them on the day, in reality.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
That's close to what I am expecting - a few more off Reform and a couple more to the Tories by polling day.
Reform have an ugly stench around them now on racism, Putinism and Farage strops.
I can't see too many sensible British people going for them on the day, in reality.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
2010 was 36.1% to 29.7% and a hung parliament of course. Not hugely different compared to this poll.
The difference being approximately that between leads of six and fifteen points.
I think Reform will quite significantly underperform their polling on the night.
Reports of the death of the Tory party are exaggerated. But they certainly need to be punished and brought down a peg or two hundred.
The worry would be that if they don't get the hammering of a lifetime there's little incentive to change the things badly wrong with the Conservative Party, and the media/policy ecosystem that surrounds it - which has also been disastrous for the country.
Anything above the 1997 result and they'll go "well we had a good run, and lost votes to Reform so it wasn't that bad, we'll be back in when the public turn on Labour". Then carry on being the performatively dumb, offensive circus they've become.
The Augean Stables need cleaning and large parts of the Tory Party and its hangers on need a lesson they never forget, that forces them to fundamentally rethink how they do things.
Is the “drinking tears thing” that bad though? A friend and I were considering setting someone up in a micro brewery. We had decided to call it the Peirson Brewery after the English Major who was killed by the French here in the last battle on British soil in 1781 and I was determined that the IPA was going to be called “French Tears”.
I also wanted to make a Stout called “Pompey’s revenge” after Peirson’s black man servant as depicted in the ridiculously huge painting of the battle in the Tate.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
That's close to what I am expecting - a few more off Reform and a couple more to the Tories by polling day.
Reform have an ugly stench around them now on racism, Putinism and Farage strops.
I can't see too many sensible British people going for them on the day, in reality.
PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.
And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.
My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.
Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.
MiC with a new one 🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15. 🔵CON 24 (+1) 🔴LAB 39 (-1) 🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2) 🟣REF UK 13 (-1) 🟢GRN 5 (-) 🟡SNP 3 (-) Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
That's close to what I am expecting - a few more off Reform and a couple more to the Tories by polling day.
Reform have an ugly stench around them now on racism, Putinism and Farage strops.
I can't see too many sensible British people going for them on the day, in reality.
I just can’t believe any of the seat modellers can cope with these Tory/Reform/LibDem splits in any seat other than the ones Labour is going to walk (380-400 of them).
It might split such that Labour gets 700 seats in the 650 seat chamber, but I can’t help feeling that at some point the Tory collapse helps Reform get lots of seats just like the Liberals.
There must be a way for a pollster to gather more data. Something around tweaking the categorisation in the MRPs to not make certain baked in assumptions that rely on a broadly similar split.
Labour won't be walking 400 seats if they dip under 40 to 38 or so on the day, they'll win most of them but they'll be vulnerable to failing in some and challenges from Reform, Galloway etc in others as vote efficiency declines. We may well find some very weird holds and crazy gains. Survation, for example, has Orpington and Romford going red but Chelsea staying blue
I am quietly hopeful this will be another one where we’ll be in the money on here as the numbers play out. Some media “surprises” will be predictable with the right data.
I'm hoping to put together a spreadsheet to give us indications from early decs which seats downstream are likely to differ to the markets' wisdom. No promises but if I do, I'll share.
Just to add - I'm very bitter I missed out on election date betting, because I clearly have superpowers. I have had 1 day of annual leave in the past 177 days. I booked next week off 8 months ago.
Comments
https://x.com/barackobama/status/1806758633230709017
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
If it's true, that situation (rather than Harris being the real power behind the throne as might be expected) must surely make a Michelle run a stronger likelihood than nil. Why run things through Harris when she appears less popular and less capable than Michelle anyway?
It’s been a scorcher of a week ☀️ Our latest Voter Intention scores are in with Labour’s vote share down by one to 42. Reform UK's vote share is +3.
🔴 Lab 42% (-1)
🔵 Con 20% (-2)
⚪ Ref 16% (+3)
🟠 LD 10% (NC)
🟢 Green 7% (NC)
🟡 SNP 3% (NC)
🟣 Ind 2% (NC)
https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1806719530925711447
Survation, for example, has Orpington and Romford going red but Chelsea staying blue
But it's the power of incumbency. There was no mechanism for removing Biden without challenging him in the Primaries. And it was incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters to go after a sitting President.
Biden should have announced he was stepping down last October, and let the Democrats have a proper Primary. But he didn't, and now they are in a serious pickle.
Personally, I think they only option they have - should they want to get rid of Biden - is Harris. And while she's pretty shit, she's also compis mentis. And compis mentis and shit beats senile, especially when the senility gets worse by the day.
(Note also, if Biden keels over, then Harris takes over as President. That means she essentially inherits the nomination. She's a clear buy for next President.)
1 - Reform performance. a) Down or out? b) Particularly, will the Nigel win?
2 - Is there any realistic prospect of LibDems being the Opposition?
My view - 1a Down. 1b No idea. 2 Quite unlikely ,but I can hope.
£1 available.
Over recent days modest semi-arbs have been available on ~15% upwards. I bet someone here is on it.
I have a cheeky fiver on 10-12% at about 20.
Stupid, lying Democrat fucks. It is very hard to feel sorry for any of them. They lied about lab leak, they lied about Hunter Biden, they lied about Biden’s fitness for office. They are scum and they are habitual scum
They are barely better than Trump, it really is getting quite hard to justify why BIDEN is better than Trump as the next president, can someone please remind me
Fuck it. Civil War. Sort it out with guns
That is a groundswell that I think will continue to grow.
I do not think the Democratic establishment will let this wait until the convention. Yes the decision is Biden’s, but if the party tells him he has to go, I think he will.
The rubicon has been crossed. The die has been cast. The Democrats now know they face defeat with Biden or they can try to spin the wheel. This is not going to get better for them until that choice is made. Certain defeat, or a possible way out.
🚨New @Moreincommon_ voting intention finds a tie for third place and a Lib Dem campaign high. Labour lead by 15.
🔵CON 24 (+1)
🔴LAB 39 (-1)
🟠LIB DEM 13 (+2)
🟣REF UK 13 (-1)
🟢GRN 5 (-)
🟡SNP 3 (-)
Dates: 26-28/6 N: 3,361 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
Pretty bleak.
“If you thought the debate was bad, wait until you see the swimsuit competition.”
“They’ll unleash all sorts, nuclear disarmament, French style, union laws, open borders with Europe”
Is that a stray comma, or are we all going to have to dress très chic from now on?
Stick to absolute basics - things they can’t fuck up - good croissants, oysters, moules frites, it’s still very pleasant. As soon as the chefs get “creative” it is actively BAD. Repetitive, nervous, slightly weird, and they all do the same things, A kind of herding
You’d be pissed off if you got this crap in a London gastropub
@hendopolis
·
50m
YORKSHIRE POST: Sunak pledges to stay on as MP if he wins seat #TomorrowsPapersToday
Just a genuine and total laugh out loud.
At any moment in time, millions of people take the path of least resistance, what is easiest, what gets them into least trouble right now.
And that's true in the White House and Number 10 and pretty much everywhere else.
It was true under Trump, and it's true under Biden, and it'll be true under whoever is next.
Obama isn't pulling the strings of people in the White House, because that doesn't benefit person A right now in their desire to get through today in one piece.
Biden is the nominee, senile as he is, for exactly that reason. It's because it's the path of least resistance not to try and get rid of the nominee.
"Going into 2020 I’m going to continue to be vocal about how to tackle racism and the fact I drink white man tears on a regular basis"
That will go down well with the Clacton electorate.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/farage-clacton-labour-candidate-election-b2562143.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gw6xvq0zxo
Now I think it will save them from some of the worst case scenarios in that they will at least be holding these kind of seats.
French style weather though. That would be nice. Choice of everything between apocalyptic Provençal heat and depressing Pas de Calais grisaille, via thunderstorms in the centre.
I think that's terrific value.
*as in speculate based on, you know, vibes
And we have nearly 2 years of evidence that that's precisely what happens in real elections.
I can't see too many sensible British people going for them on the day, in reality.
Anything above the 1997 result and they'll go "well we had a good run, and lost votes to Reform so it wasn't that bad, we'll be back in when the public turn on Labour". Then carry on being the performatively dumb, offensive circus they've become.
The Augean Stables need cleaning and large parts of the Tory Party and its hangers on need a lesson they never forget, that forces them to fundamentally rethink how they do things.
I also wanted to make a Stout called “Pompey’s revenge” after Peirson’s black man servant as depicted in the ridiculously huge painting of the battle in the Tate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_Major_Peirson,_6_January_1781
Business plan didn’t work sadly.
And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.
My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.
Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.