The Starmergeddon is coming for the Tories if the MRPs are right – politicalbetting.com

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The Starmergeddon is coming for the Tories if the MRPs are right – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Penultimate MRP Update.Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland.Probabilistic seat count:LAB 470CON 85LD 56SNP 12RFM 4PC 3GRN 223,364 interviews conducted online and on the telephoneFwk 15th – 27th Junehttps://t.co/4vB1oOH2Uy

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Heathener

1st like Labour in Newton Abbot

At least according to Survation’s latest MRP




@IanB2 and @ClippP take note May not be right of course. No longer sure who to believe but obvious it is not.

eek

Second as the Lib Dems will be (on seats) next week.

eek

FPT but on topic

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:

Survation mrp is out
https://x.com/Survation/status/1806742442429088203?s=19

They have Exmouth going to RefUK.

They also have Ripon and Skipton with Reform at 9% going to either Tory / Labour.

MisterBedfordshire

FPT.

Luckyguy1983 said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

PedestrianRock said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Nunu5 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

PedestrianRock said:

Nunu5 said:

Omg this poll is in line with pp
Lab: 38%
Ref: 21%
Con: 18%
LD: 11%

No idea if the Daily Express pollster is any good.

But Baxtered it gives something like

LABOUR 453
LD 74
CON 50
REF 29 (!)
GREEN 3
SNP 18

The Tories have voters everywhere. Reform have voters everywhere. Reform are relatively unpopular in Scotland (8%), London, and fairly unpopular in the leafy shires. All those places probably have more Tories living in them as a percentage of their voter tallies than Reform do. So where does the inefficiency of the Reform vote lie? Where are they stacking up all these voters in unwinnable seats to beat the Tories soundly but still lose so heavily on seat count? Yes the Tories have ground game and incumbency, but that would surely be accounted for in the topline figures? Surely the RefUK vote actually has the potential to be quite efficient?

Yes I don't understand how the Reform vote is more inefficient than the tory one? Perhaps REFORM are building up votes in very safe Labour seats in the north especially in the North East.

We will know at about 11pm on Thursday when Sunderland South result is up.

I think Bridget Philipsson will help them be okay there. However Washington and Gateshead South might have more of a chance. If that goes to Reform early on, I could very well see people panicking on the Exchange etc.

Not expecting Reform to win Sunderland South, but if a large storm is inccoming, Reform second place and how much they squeeze Labours majority is going to be the distant flashes of lightning on the horizon as the breeze starts to pick up.

It was is very interesting to hear how much leg Sir Kier 'Send the Bangladeshis home' Starmer is flashing in the direction of perceived Reform voters at the moment - perhaps their private polling is telling them that their position in the red wall isn't as safe as they'd like to think. There's definitely more Tory vote for Reform to squeeze, and Labour voters aren't that convinced either.

The problem with Bangladeshgate, is that if 3/5th of 2019 voters have broken for reform and 1/5 for Labour as @rcs1000 suggests, Labour will win, providing a trance of their core voters don't vote for Gorgeous George which Bangladeshgate might ensure.

bobbob

I’ve noticed Con mps have started sending out begging letters focused on local issues with anti-starmer/reform messages with little conservative branding to try to appeal to personal vote

These are whst used to be safe Conservative seats (15k+ maj)

See if it it works for last minute swingback

Roger

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

eek

bobbob said:

I’ve noticed Con mps have started sending out begging letters focused on local issues with anti-starmer/reform messages with little conservative branding to try to appeal to personal vote

These are whst used to be safe Conservative seats (15k+ maj)

See if it it works for last minute swingback

Oh I got on of those yesterday - claiming only by voting Tory would we have someone keeping an eye on the Labour council. Slight downside my vote was sent off last week..

Carnyx

bobbob said:

I’ve noticed Con mps have started sending out begging letters focused on local issues with anti-starmer/reform messages with little conservative branding to try to appeal to personal vote

These are whst used to be safe Conservative seats (15k+ maj)

See if it it works for last minute swingback

The Ruth Davidson Says No to Independence strategy.

PedestrianRock

rcs1000 said:

PedestrianRock said:

Nunu5 said:

I predict REFORM will get 21% (+/- 3%). Labour 38 % (+/- 3). Let's see.

REFUK to beat Cons on vote share is 4.8 on the Exchange.

People will poo poo it but given just how many polls we have seen now where they are neck and neck, or Reform is ahead, it still looks value to me.

I have money on at 13-1 on Reform being second ex-Labour. I think that's the bet to go for. Not likely, but a lot better than a 13 to 1 shot.

FPT

@rcs1000 is that seats or vote share? I can’t find the latter as a bet. I’m on the seats one.

MisterBedfordshire

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Peter_the_Punter

eek said:

FPT but on topic

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:

Survation mrp is out
https://x.com/Survation/status/1806742442429088203?s=19

They have Exmouth going to RefUK.

They also have Ripon and Skipton with Reform at 9% going to either Tory / Labour.

Most importantly, they have Tewkesbury going LD by 0.1%.

Followers of my tip will be reassured to note that the bookies have finally noticed that it is the LDs, not Labour, who are the challengers to incumbent Tory, Laurence Robertson. If you are not on yet there is still value to be had in the 3/1 on the Yellow Peril, and if you want to secure a small but safe profit you could dutch it with the 1/2 on the Blue Meany. I wouldn't bother though. The recent sunshine seems to have brought out a host of yellow diamonds. I have seen one Labour window sticker, and one Green placard. Yet to spot my first Blue.

Looks like it's gonna be close....and I'm not talking about the weather, folks.

boulay

Roger said:

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

“But”

You knob. Nobody in this county should be calling anyone a “f-ing p”. There are no “buts”. If he or his cabinet had been calling people racist names it still wouldn’t excuse anyone calling him that.

SteveS

@Pulpstar. Thx for Barnsley south tip. Have had a flutter and partially arb’ed on betfair.

wooliedyed

Survation continues the model of MRPs having higher Con Vote shares than regular polling

Leon

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

williamglenn

https://x.com/joebiden/status/1806739920255320347

I don’t know what you did last night, but I spent 90 minutes debating a guy with the morals of an alley cat.

state_go_away

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

EPG

On the previous thread, I mentioned that your chances of winning a seat on 30% are not much better than if on 10% (i.e. zero). I checked the maths for GB general elections since 2010. Around 1.5% of candidates on 30% won a seat. For context, in 2015, Ukip beat 30% in eight constituencies. (The LDs, on a lower national vote, beat 30% in 23 constituencies.) A local vote of 35% is where you start to win a more meaningful share of the time, but even a lot of these were in Scotland and Wales. (This is kind of common sense if we start off with a country with a lot of two-party contests, where you begin to win your first seats by overtaking two parties that are tied pretty close together. One third of the vote is pretty much your cost of entry.)

MJW

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage doesn't reprove racist language though - he's used enough himself.

Obviously he doesn't subscribe to the tenets of fascism, or a programme that could look like it (e.g. some of Trump's worst bloviations people are hoping he doesn't mean). But I've no doubt he would - or support those who did - if he calculated it was to his advantage.

He's a rabble rouser and huckster. Lyle Lanley - the monorail guy from The Simpsons - might be the apposite comparison. Someone who is very effective at telling an audience what they want to hear then moving on and leaving others to clean up the mess made by that.

Andy_JS

edit

TheScreamingEagles

Andy_JS said:

An actor who supports Reform, even a part-time one?

Wait until you hear about Laurence Fox.

TimS

It strikes me the UK election is the final hurrah, the last supper, the stag or hen do, for the social democratic and liberal ascendency in the West. The exception that proves the rule.

A populist right wing party is about to be kicked out of office in potentially spectacular style (don’t @ me, they are populist right wing: heavy on the divisive rhetoric, light on policy, economically centrist, elements of statism, classic populist - see Orban, Erdogan, Putin etc).

The rest of the West is going into its populist phase. America is getting Trump back. He may well fix the system so his people are in forever. Le Pen’s people are going to be running France. India is already captured, Germany is rediscovering its fashy heritage. But here in Britain we have a few years of Keir before PM Farage in 2029. Meanwhile the world’s burning up and China’s deciding when to press the Taiwan button.

So we should embrace it, right and left. Celebrate the fin de siècle before the descent into hell and the possible nuclear holocaust.

I am considering an ultra woke fancy dress party for election night, celebrating our short lived supremacy before the republic of Gilead descends.

boulay

Andy_JS said:

An actor who supports Reform, even a part-time one?

Lozza Fox went to the audition but got turned down as not being able to act twattish enough.

williamglenn

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/hillary-clinton-2024/index.html

rottenborough

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

Trump wins the 2024 election this weekend unless Biden stands aside.

As I think the polling will tell us over next three or four days.

Omnium

Andy_JS said:

An actor who supports Reform, even a part-time one?

A combination of the Brian Blessed mould with Basil Brush?

MartinVegas

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/joebiden/status/1806739920255320347

I don’t know what you did last night, but I spent 90 minutes debating a guy with the morals of an alley cat.

Jeez. That was a terrible line last night, literally all Biden could say about January 6. And they're doubling down on it.

I'm getting sick of hearing about how Biden is surrounded by smart person. Maybe that's right in his government, but his campaign team could give Sunak a run for its money.

Peter_the_Punter

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

Leon, it is disturbing me how often I am liking your posts these days.

Please let me know if it bothers you too and I will desist.

carnforth

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/joebiden/status/1806739920255320347

I don’t know what you did last night, but I spent 90 minutes debating a guy with the morals of an alley cat.

As if he remembers last night.

SeaShantyIrish2

Andy_JS said:

An actor who supports Reform, even a part-time one?

Reform is WAY too Woke for likes of Laurence Fox, methinks. Though LF's not even part-time these days?

Omnium

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

boulay

williamglenn said:

https://www.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/28/politics/hillary-clinton-2024

I hope so, just for the memes.

CatMan

Has anyone commented on the debate being yet another thing The Simpsons predicted?

TheScreamingEagles

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

OnboardG1

Peter_the_Punter said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

Leon, it is disturbing me how often I am liking your posts these days.

Please let me know if it bothers you too and I will desist.

I know, it's quite disturbing. That said, it's why I stick around on PB. Just occasionally, people who utterly exasperate me much of the time say things that make me genuinely pause for thought.

solarflare

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Is it mandated that you have to read "unlimited power" in a Palpatine voice?

wooliedyed

CatMan said:

Has anyone commented on the debate being yet another thing The Simpsons predicted?

That was just a parody of the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon debate when radio listeners gave it to Tricky Dicky but on TV he was sweating with a cold and looked shifty because of it so the TV audience went heavily for JFK

Luckyguy1983

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

His response to 'racistgate' is worth watching. I like his line at the end that Sunak to Starmer isn't a change of Government, it's a change of management.

https://youtu.be/90vvZ3ybj9I?si=-zCKW2Ltt4O-_L06

And it really is just Sunak's luck to respond to a horribly damaging (to the guilty party) racist attack on him only to have it exposed like this.

MisterBedfordshire

Have we had this poll here yet?

Conservatives: 18% (-1)

Labour: 38% (-1)

Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

Reform UK: 21% (+1)

Greens: 7% (+1)

SNP: 2% (-1)

Other: 3% (+2)

Whitestone Insight interviewed 2,012 adults in Britain online on June 26 and 27 (Changes with June 19 and 20).

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-poll-tories-behind-reform-33130599

TimS

Purge

TheScreamingEagles

solarflare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Is it mandated that you have to read "unlimited power" in a Palpatine voice?

Yes.

TheScreamingEagles

MisterBedfordshire said:

Have we had this poll here yet?

Conservatives: 18% (-1)

Labour: 38% (-1)

Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

Reform UK: 21% (+1)

Greens: 7% (+1)

SNP: 2% (-1)

Other: 3% (+2)

Whitestone Insight interviewed 2,012 adults in Britain online on June 26 and 27 (Changes with June 19 and 20).

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-poll-tories-behind-reform-33130599

Yes.

Luckyguy1983

Luckyguy1983 said:

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

His response to 'racistgate' is worth watching. I like his line at the end that Sunak to Starmer isn't a change of Government, it's a change of management.

https://youtu.be/90vvZ3ybj9I?si=-zCKW2Ltt4O-_L06

And it really is just Sunak's luck to respond to a horribly damaging (to the guilty party) racist attack on him only to have it exposed like this.

Also, the chosen backdrop (fairly oppulent office space, no British flags) is interesting.

OnboardG1

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Are the conservatives promising me nice things they can't deliver again?

Leon

Omnium said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

Who how and when?

Ideally Biden would 1 retire tomorrow, 2 Harris would also bow out, and 3 the Dems would magic up a fine and pleasing candidate who appeals to swing voters

1. Not gonna happen
2. Not gonna happen
3. Doesn’t exist

So they will begrudgingly struggle on with Biden

However I could be wrong.

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

numbertwelve

CatMan said:

Has anyone commented on the debate being yet another thing The Simpsons predicted?

Wasn’t that a sendup of Kennedy/Nixon?

Edit: I see @wooliedyed got there before me!

TimS

MisterBedfordshire said:

Have we had this poll here yet?

Conservatives: 18% (-1)

Labour: 38% (-1)

Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

Reform UK: 21% (+1)

Greens: 7% (+1)

SNP: 2% (-1)

Other: 3% (+2)

Whitestone Insight interviewed 2,012 adults in Britain online on June 26 and 27 (Changes with June 19 and 20).

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-poll-tories-behind-reform-33130599

Yes we have. Labour could really do with 40%+ to shut the Corbynistas up. It’s like batting averages. 40+ good, less than than a bit mediocre.

Lib Dems really really need to get 12%+

DougSeal

Roger said:

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

“…but…”

You are a fuckend of the first order. A disgraceful so-called progressive. There are no “buts” when it comes to racism. Knob.

wooliedyed

numbertwelve said:

CatMan said:

Has anyone commented on the debate being yet another thing The Simpsons predicted?

Wasn’t that a sendup of Kennedy/Nixon?

Edit: I see @wooliedyed got there before me!

Speedy Woolie

Roger

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

If you watch Ch4 News again tonight you might get some idea of how grotesque it is to be called names like that. Farage is mired in it and totally responsible for it. If that's how 'a patriot' and his followers behave God help us.

MisterBedfordshire

Tice:

"Note Ch 4 do not deny Mr Parker is an actor

They’ve made most serious allegations, relying on an actor, using his acting voice not normal voice, not telling truth about his profession

Laughable, desperate, shocking

Ch 4 expect voters to believe them🤔


https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1806670576133500933?t=gKFko1lXYG-Rz-AenprOWg&s=19

TheScreamingEagles

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

Why do you think I now think the Tories winning 100 MPs is doubtful?

Luckyguy1983

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

Who how and when?

Ideally Biden would 1 retire tomorrow, 2 Harris would also bow out, and 3 the Dems would magic up a fine and pleasing candidate who appeals to swing voters

1. Not gonna happen
2. Not gonna happen
3. Doesn’t exist

So they will begrudgingly struggle on with Biden

However I could be wrong.

I can't watch the poor man. They had a clip of him at a rally - that was meant to be him at his fiery best. It was really awful. Let him retire for goodness sake.

Clutch_Brompton

On topic - one thing all the MRPs agree on is that an unusual number of seats will be decided by small or very small margins. That means GOTV is going to be absolutely crucial in determining spread bets on seat totals. Can Lab get their people to the polls? Does Reform have a GOTV effort and does it need it? Will the LibDem juggernaut roll over demoralised Con stragglers? Will the Green strategy pay off? Can the once-mighty Con electoral machine stave off total disaster?

Still six bedtimes when Sir Ed can dream of being LOTO!

GarethoftheVale2

bobbob said:

I’ve noticed Con mps have started sending out begging letters focused on local issues with anti-starmer/reform messages with little conservative branding to try to appeal to personal vote

These are whst used to be safe Conservative seats (15k+ maj)

See if it it works for last minute swingback

We had one last week in light yellow colour with blue font. 3 pages about the MP's local achievements with photos then 1 page on the national stuff with 1 picture of Rishi (in shadow and partially covered by text)

TimS

Roger said:

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

If you watch Ch4 News again tonight you might get some idea of how grotesque it is to be called names like that. Farage is mired in it and totally responsible for it. If that's how 'a patriot' and his followers behave God help us.

This is lucky general central though.

Reform damaged enough not to surge on the back of total Tory collapse. But not damaged enough to disappear and add a cool 15% to the Tory vote count.

carnforth

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

The effect of this supermajority stuff is potentially twofold:

A. get out the base; and
B. suppress the Labour vote

Leon

Luckyguy1983 said:

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

Who how and when?

Ideally Biden would 1 retire tomorrow, 2 Harris would also bow out, and 3 the Dems would magic up a fine and pleasing candidate who appeals to swing voters

1. Not gonna happen
2. Not gonna happen
3. Doesn’t exist

So they will begrudgingly struggle on with Biden

However I could be wrong.

I can't watch the poor man. They had a clip of him at a rally - that was meant to be him at his fiery best. It was really awful. Let him retire for goodness sake.

I’ve been glancing back at prior pb debates on Biden’s senility. Despite much derision, abuse and mockery you have been consistently and politely pointing out that Biden is a cognitively declining liability, and even if people don’t like hearing it, that is the case

You are vindicated. Pour yourself a drink

Benpointer

None of the last 10 polls posted on wiki show the Tories reaching 100 seats when plugged into EC, and 8 of those polls show the LDs winning more seats than the Tories. Just saying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

MartinVegas

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

Who how and when?

Ideally Biden would 1 retire tomorrow, 2 Harris would also bow out, and 3 the Dems would magic up a fine and pleasing candidate who appeals to swing voters

1. Not gonna happen
2. Not gonna happen
3. Doesn’t exist

So they will begrudgingly struggle on with Biden

However I could be wrong.

3 does exist. Gretchen Whitmer for one.

It was interesting listening to Pod Save America this morning. Ex-Obama staffers, huge influence. They have been consistently saying until today that Biden is the nominee, we have to deal with it. They're still saying that Biden has to make the decision (so I'm not disagreeing with you) BUT that (a) he has to have that conversation right now with his team and (b) he absolutely should go.

SeaShantyIrish2

carnforth said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

The effect of this supermajority stuff is potentially twofold:

A. get out the base; and
B. suppress the Labour vote

C. save a few Tories in formerly true Blue constituencies with sizable share of BigG_Wales voters.

OnboardG1

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

Who how and when?

Ideally Biden would 1 retire tomorrow, 2 Harris would also bow out, and 3 the Dems would magic up a fine and pleasing candidate who appeals to swing voters

1. Not gonna happen
2. Not gonna happen
3. Doesn’t exist

So they will begrudgingly struggle on with Biden

However I could be wrong.

Pete Butitiggeggegeege might be a good alternative. Or Gretchen Whitmer if she's feeling combative. Youth or femaleness would be a good counter to Trump I think. Michelle Obama is a meme pick but she doesn't want to do it. Complete outside pick would be to draft a red-state dem like John Bel Edwards, though I doubt his social views would carry him to a nomination.

Omnium

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

Who how and when?

Ideally Biden would 1 retire tomorrow, 2 Harris would also bow out, and 3 the Dems would magic up a fine and pleasing candidate who appeals to swing voters

1. Not gonna happen
2. Not gonna happen
3. Doesn’t exist

So they will begrudgingly struggle on with Biden

However I could be wrong.

Biden will just run out of steam. The debate performance of last night is very likely to be the best that Joe Biden can currently deliver. It was quite hopeless, and worse in large part.

Trump was awful too - but that doesn't excuse Biden.

The Dems are hanging on to Biden as some sort of witch-charm that can defeat Trump. Almost anything other than this voodoo mentality will see them sail home against such a man.

My money is firmly on Harris now.

(Caveat - I have a terrible record on USA political betting)

Luckyguy1983

TimS said:

Roger said:

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

If you watch Ch4 News again tonight you might get some idea of how grotesque it is to be called names like that. Farage is mired in it and totally responsible for it. If that's how 'a patriot' and his followers behave God help us.

This is lucky general central though.

Reform damaged enough not to surge on the back of total Tory collapse. But not damaged enough to disappear and add a cool 15% to the Tory vote count.

They're really not going to be damaged by racistgate.

Benpointer

carnforth said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

The effect of this supermajority stuff is potentially twofold:

A. get out the base; and
B. suppress the Labour vote

C. widely derided by erstwhile Conservative supporters who think 'just f*ck off'.

Luckyguy1983

Leon said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

As I predicted, Biden is staying. It’s too hard to dislodge him and there’s no obvious replacement who doesn’t bring even more problems

And that might actually be the Dems’ best bet. They have left it far too late to admit what everyone knows, he’s a senile old man

Moreover, voters might not care. Just as Trumpites don’t care that Trump is now a felon, people that want Biden don’t care that he’s demented, all they care about is that he’s Not Trump. And the last few years have shown that the team around Biden actually run the country quite effectively, so who cares if the King is mad if his chamberlains are competent

So it’s Same as it ever was. Tho I do think this shifts the dial SLIGHTLY towards a Trump victory

I think you may have predicted he was leaving too! Anyway this time I think you're wrong. I think he's not going to manage to stumble into a second term.

He's going to prove easy to dislodge when the Dems get the courage to try.

Who how and when?

Ideally Biden would 1 retire tomorrow, 2 Harris would also bow out, and 3 the Dems would magic up a fine and pleasing candidate who appeals to swing voters

1. Not gonna happen
2. Not gonna happen
3. Doesn’t exist

So they will begrudgingly struggle on with Biden

However I could be wrong.

I can't watch the poor man. They had a clip of him at a rally - that was meant to be him at his fiery best. It was really awful. Let him retire for goodness sake.

I’ve been glancing back at prior pb debates on Biden’s senility. Despite much derision, abuse and mockery you have been consistently and politely pointing out that Biden is a cognitively declining liability, and even if people don’t like hearing it, that is the case

You are vindicated. Pour yourself a drink

Thanks! As it happens I have some 19 crimes to do just that.

carnforth

Benpointer said:

carnforth said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

The effect of this supermajority stuff is potentially twofold:

A. get out the base; and
B. suppress the Labour vote

C. widely derided by erstwhile Conservative supporters who think 'just f*ck off'.

But they weren't going to vote Tory anyway.

wooliedyed

TimS said:

Roger said:

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

If you watch Ch4 News again tonight you might get some idea of how grotesque it is to be called names like that. Farage is mired in it and totally responsible for it. If that's how 'a patriot' and his followers behave God help us.

This is lucky general central though.

Reform damaged enough not to surge on the back of total Tory collapse. But not damaged enough to disappear and add a cool 15% to the Tory vote count.

The Tories would be looking at tonights Survation MRP thinking '2% swingback from Reform over this and we are hanging on '97 styley'
I'm still not sure if it's 50 or 175 seats they end up with or points between. Reform's uncertain voteshare and turnout is making predicting so hard

MisterBedfordshire

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Roger said:

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

If you watch Ch4 News again tonight you might get some idea of how grotesque it is to be called names like that. Farage is mired in it and totally responsible for it. If that's how 'a patriot' and his followers behave God help us.

This is lucky general central though.

Reform damaged enough not to surge on the back of total Tory collapse. But not damaged enough to disappear and add a cool 15% to the Tory vote count.

They're really not going to be damaged by racistgate.

Quite the opposite now that it is credible that the whole thing was a set up involving an actor.

Not so much racistgate as channel4gate.

Benpointer

TimS said:

Roger said:

state_go_away said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

darkage said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

darkage said:

It is quite entertaining to observe how Nigel Farage has the ability to drive people in to a total incoherant frenzy. He manages to make his opponents mad without actually doing anything significant. It isn't like he is calling his opponents 'scum', or saying that all debate should be stopped as it is 'hatred', as left wing politicians have done in the past few years. Regarding Reform supporters, it isn't like they are pulling down statues, vandalising ancient monuments, blocking ambulances etc. This all feels like the usual thing of a free pass for the far left but impossibly high standards applied to anyone on the 'far right'.

I loath the far left, but it may need pointing out to you that the far right,even just in this country, has set rather a lot more dangerous historical precedents than just pulling down statues. Fascism needs calling out. Yes there are lots of idiots who want to pretend that label doesn't apply to Farage, but the cap fits him very well.

Farage sees himself as doing a public service for democracy by representing a swathe of public opinion that the elite find repulsive. He brings it in to the political mainstream. That is what he did with Brexit and that is what he is doing now. Ultimately you have to choose between this and an actual far right/fascist situation. I would say though in addition that 'fascism' has really lost its meaning, it seems more like a rhetorical tool for debating purposes, if you can be branded a fascist then it is a red card, you are out of the game in disgrace. It all gets a bit tiring.

Not really, it has a meaning.

And Farage is one.

There is nothing wrong with honesty and it is free speech to call him what he is.

Free speech but hyperbolic and makes the word meaningless if done often enough.

Not hyperbolic at all, unless you believe that the insurrectionist election denying Trump should not be described as such. Farage is a Trump supporting Putin apologist with a penchant for far right leaders including Marine La Penn. He is called out as a racist by the original founder of UKIP and was described as a fascist by his independent school house master.

Anyone that doesn't recognise Farage as a fascist is politically naïve, blind or a fellow traveller.

I honestly don't think Farage is fascist. He would not wear brown shirts and turn his nose up at some of the things fascists would have to do - he would see such things are distinctly unEnglish (leaving aside Moseley, Canning et al). IMO he also does not fit the fascist definition,

If anything, he's worse. He's no fool, and he appeals to the fascist instincts in people to further his own ends. He will appeal to the worst in people to get votes, and look for simplistic answer to problems that are always, invariably, "it's someone else's fault!"

Comparisons of Farage with Hitler, Musso, Franco etc are just silly.

If you want to compare him with historic figures then Ian Smith is a better comparison. Thatcherite Right Wing economically, Socially Conservsative and ran a rather right wing outfit that was more paternalistically right wing and rejected apartheid.

He would personally reprove anyone in his government using racist language but was leader of a government which had some geniunely hardline right wingers (Desmond Lardner Burke) and fruitcakes (PK Van Der Byl).

In later years he spoke out against racism (boot was on the other foot by tben, but formed friendships with Abel Muzorewa and Joshua Nkomo much like Mcguinness and Paisley

Farage is a patriot not a fascist (Farage is supportive of the ordinary man not the state as such) and what is termed a Little Englander - Whilst that is used as an insult by the metro liberal class , he revels in it knowing that a large percentage of the population are as well. They like their country pubs ,village churches and British history.
Farage has only got this opportunity because of the arrogance , incompetence and wokeness of the establishment which is now infested with the same sort of woke , middle class ,entitled person

If you watch Ch4 News again tonight you might get some idea of how grotesque it is to be called names like that. Farage is mired in it and totally responsible for it. If that's how 'a patriot' and his followers behave God help us.

This is lucky general central though.

Reform damaged enough not to surge on the back of total Tory collapse. But not damaged enough to disappear and add a cool 15% to the Tory vote count.

Davey is the Lucky General then. Starmer is PM whatever happens now; the effect you have described turns a landslide loss for the Tories into 3rd place behind the LDs.

Cookie

Roger said:

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

= "If you take a political position I disagree with you are fair game."

MightyAlex

DougSeal said:

Roger said:

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

“…but…”

You are a fuckend of the first order. A disgraceful so-called progressive. There are no “buts” when it comes to racism. Knob.

If you court the nativist right-wing for two years, can you complain when you get abused by nativist right-wingers?

boulay

Clutch_Brompton said:

On topic - one thing all the MRPs agree on is that an unusual number of seats will be decided by small or very small margins. That means GOTV is going to be absolutely crucial in determining spread bets on seat totals. Can Lab get their people to the polls? Does Reform have a GOTV effort and does it need it? Will the LibDem juggernaut roll over demoralised Con stragglers? Will the Green strategy pay off? Can the once-mighty Con electoral machine stave off total disaster?

Still six bedtimes when Sir Ed can dream of being LOTO!

I’m looking forward to the next euromillions ad after the election where a camera crew come up to Sir Ed.

“congratulations Sir Ed, you’re the Lotto winner”

An excited Sir Ed “I’m the LOTO winner, amazing, I never believed it could happen”

“So how will you spend the £15 million?

“What do you mean, I won money and didn’t come second in the election?”

Voiceover “National Lottery - don’t wait for someone to tick your box to be a winner, tick our boxes.”

biggles

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/joebiden/status/1806739920255320347

I don’t know what you did last night, but I spent 90 minutes debating a guy with the morals of an alley cat.

Who was he debating him with?

Sorry, it’s just one of my most hated American bastardisations of the language.

state_go_away

Benpointer said:

None of the last 10 polls posted on wiki show the Tories reaching 100 seats when plugged into EC, and 8 of those polls show the LDs winning more seats than the Tories. Just saying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

The only thing in favour of the tories getting to 100 (or at least beating the lib dems ) is the shy or angry indecisive vote for them - its easy in an opinion polls to diss the tories enough in your own mind and state you will be voting for somebody else but in the actual vote , the sheer established tradition of voting tory to many will overide some of that -- I think the LD coming second is just value at around 3/1 but not a no brainer bet. Recent local by election results also point to the tories doing better than the polls suggest

Luckyguy1983

MightyAlex said:

DougSeal said:

Roger said:

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

“…but…”

You are a fuckend of the first order. A disgraceful so-called progressive. There are no “buts” when it comes to racism. Knob.

If you court the nativist right-wing for two years, can you complain when you get abused by nativist right-wingers?

Or even by a bad actor doing an impression of Alf Garnett in an attempted stitch up?

rcs1000

Let's talk Biden.

Could he step down?

Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.

(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.

(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.

So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.

But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.

In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.

The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,

Benpointer

carnforth said:

Benpointer said:

carnforth said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

The effect of this supermajority stuff is potentially twofold:

A. get out the base; and
B. suppress the Labour vote

C. widely derided by erstwhile Conservative supporters who think 'just f*ck off'.

But they weren't going to vote Tory anyway.

They are, or at least were, a big part of 'the base'.

HYUFD

The Starmergeddon with Labour on 41% of the vote ie below 1997 New Labour levels.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

Let's talk Biden.

Could he step down?

Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.

(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.

(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.

So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.

But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.

In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.

The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,

Biden in a coma is better than Harris as nominee, he may as well stay then

rcs1000

MisterBedfordshire said:

Tice:

"Note Ch 4 do not deny Mr Parker is an actor

They’ve made most serious allegations, relying on an actor, using his acting voice not normal voice, not telling truth about his profession

Laughable, desperate, shocking

Ch 4 expect voters to believe them🤔


https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1806670576133500933?t=gKFko1lXYG-Rz-AenprOWg&s=19

Wait: so Lawrence Fox isn't sincere in his protestations, and is just being an actor?

biggles

I just can’t believe any of the seat modellers can cope with these Tory/Reform/LibDem splits in any seat other than the ones Labour is going to walk (380-400 of them).

It might split such that Labour gets 700 seats in the 650 seat chamber, but I can’t help feeling that at some point the Tory collapse helps Reform get lots of seats just like the Liberals.

There must be a way for a pollster to gather more data. Something around tweaking the categorisation in the MRPs to not make certain baked in assumptions that rely on a broadly similar split.

state_go_away

rcs1000 said:

Let's talk Biden.

Could he step down?

Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.

(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.

(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.

So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.

But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.

In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.

The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,

To be a candidate surely you have to be convincing in your health that you can at least do 4 years . Is anyone seriously suggesting Biden in another 4 years will be coherent enough to be President? It is most odd that he has become the Democratic candidate

MattW

I'm sticking to my projection !!!

100 Tories plus or minus 100.

HYUFD

MisterBedfordshire said:

Have we had this poll here yet?

Conservatives: 18% (-1)

Labour: 38% (-1)

Lib Dems: 11% (-1)

Reform UK: 21% (+1)

Greens: 7% (+1)

SNP: 2% (-1)

Other: 3% (+2)

Whitestone Insight interviewed 2,012 adults in Britain online on June 26 and 27 (Changes with June 19 and 20).

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-poll-tories-behind-reform-33130599

Massive contrast to Survation which tonight has the Tories on 25% and Reform tied with the LDs on just 11%
https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-update-labour-set-to-become-the-largest-party-in-scotland/

Sean_F

This is actually a marginal improvement for the Conservatives on the last Survation MRP poll.

The big increase in the Labour seat number comes from the SNP collapse.

OnboardG1

rcs1000 said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Tice:

"Note Ch 4 do not deny Mr Parker is an actor

They’ve made most serious allegations, relying on an actor, using his acting voice not normal voice, not telling truth about his profession

Laughable, desperate, shocking

Ch 4 expect voters to believe them🤔


https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1806670576133500933?t=gKFko1lXYG-Rz-AenprOWg&s=19

Wait: so Lawrence Fox isn't sincere in his protestations, and is just being an actor?

Ah, so we've moved on from "Isn't it bad that the person we totally didn't recruit to lead parts of our campaign is racist, nothing to do with us guv" to "It wuz a stitchup".

EPG

So Reform are either on 11% or 21%. Great.

boulay

rcs1000 said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Tice:

"Note Ch 4 do not deny Mr Parker is an actor

They’ve made most serious allegations, relying on an actor, using his acting voice not normal voice, not telling truth about his profession

Laughable, desperate, shocking

Ch 4 expect voters to believe them🤔


https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1806670576133500933?t=gKFko1lXYG-Rz-AenprOWg&s=19

Wait: so Lawrence Fox isn't sincere in his protestations, and is just being an actor?

Requires new analysis on Reagan’s presidency I suppose.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/hillary-clinton-2024/index.html

Do the Democrats literally want to give Trump the biggest early Christmas present in history?

MisterBedfordshire

Luckyguy1983 said:

MightyAlex said:

DougSeal said:

Roger said:

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

“…but…”

You are a fuckend of the first order. A disgraceful so-called progressive. There are no “buts” when it comes to racism. Knob.

If you court the nativist right-wing for two years, can you complain when you get abused by nativist right-wingers?

Or even by a bad actor doing an impression of Alf Garnett in an attempted stitch up?

Poor old Sunak now looks a bit like Cherie Blair would if she had launched an attack on Warren Mitchell for calling her father a Scouse Git.

MightyAlex

Luckyguy1983 said:

MightyAlex said:

DougSeal said:

Roger said:

Not nice being called racist names by one of Faragists outriders but I'm finding it difficult to be too outraged when Sunak was responsible for Rwanda and employing Braverman and Patel as successive Home Secretaries. If you live close to the edge you encourage these sort of people.

“…but…”

You are a fuckend of the first order. A disgraceful so-called progressive. There are no “buts” when it comes to racism. Knob.

If you court the nativist right-wing for two years, can you complain when you get abused by nativist right-wingers?

Or even by a bad actor doing an impression of Alf Garnett in an attempted stitch up?

I struggle to believe many people would want to play the horrible bastard on the national news. And doubt it would it take Ch4 very long to find a few more Reformists with horrible views.

bigjohnowls

Deleted

kyf_100

wooliedyed said:

CatMan said:

Has anyone commented on the debate being yet another thing The Simpsons predicted?

That was just a parody of the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon debate when radio listeners gave it to Tricky Dicky but on TV he was sweating with a cold and looked shifty because of it so the TV audience went heavily for JFK

Sadly, Biden looked awful last night. He seemed to be at times frail and disoriented, at other times just staring off into space with that rictus grin. He also looked completely out of it while his wife was congratulating him afterwards, as you would a toddler.

Leon posted an attack vid a few weeks ago with Biden stumbling over what I described as autocue fails - I stand by that, I've had to read off autocue a few times and have made similar errors especially if the text size / speed isn't matched to my usual reading pace.

What I also said at the time was that the weird, staring off into space, glassy eyed thing Biden had started doing recently was far more damaging. To me, that's the killer. There's no way he can last a campaign doing stuff like that, and for the good of the US he should stand aside - it's that or hand Trump the keys to the White House now.

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories just upped the ante in a new political election broadcast

Labour could be in power for "the rest of your life"🤷‍♂️... "unlimited power"... "dangerous" super-majority... could be 100+ left-wing MPs "working" for Angela Rayner

Turning it up to 11

https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1806752902444134895

Bloody hell, that's really desperate, innit?

Why do you think I now think the Tories winning 100 MPs is doubtful?

Not at all doubtful, young man. It's 4/7 with Betfair and pretty decent value at that, imo.

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

The Starmergeddon with Labour on 41% of the vote ie below 1997 New Labour levels.

Because FPTP is a crap system.

Beibheirli_C

rcs1000 said:

Let's talk Biden.

Could he step down?

Yes, he could. But either (a) there has to be an actual health event that threatens his ability to continue; or (b) he has to choose not to continue. There is no mechanism to push him out, and the delegates at the convention are bound to him unless released.

(a) is perfectly possible. And he appears to be at that stage when things start to go down hill pretty fast. There's probably a 10-15% chance of that happening.

(b) requires his wife to say "Joe, it's time for a younger generation to take over", and for him to listen. I think that is a similarly low probability event.

So, sadly, I think that Biden is probably the nominee.

But let's imagine that (a) happened. In which case (especially if it's serious and he is unable to recommend someone), then all those delegates are now free to choose whoever they like at the convention. Essentially, the couple of thousands delegates are going to hear pitches from four or five candidates. And it'll be a mess. A glorious mess. But a mess. I don't know who would win (not Clinton!), but it could be anyone.

In the case of (b), it's a little different. Because in this scenario, he would essentially instruct his delegates to pick someone, and they probably would fall in line. Which requires a back room deal. Someone who is connected in the Democratic party, not Hillary Clinton, and is seen by Biden as a logical successor. And that's probably Harris. Yes, she'd probably lose to Trump. But she is the path of least resistance, and would - after all - become President in the far from unlikely event that Biden were to become incapacitated in office.

The bet to make, therefore, is on Harris as next President. She's the path of least resistance candidate, no matter how poor a candidate she would be,

Surely the sensible move is to get Biden to step down and promote Harris to POTUS and let her choose her running mate as her VP. That respects the way that the system is supposed to work and makes a simple mechanism for being the first female President, thus getting over what seems to be a mental hurdle in the US of elevating a woman to the highest office.

She could also stand as an incumbent and I would like to think that she would make mincemeat of Trump in further debates (assuming he is not in jail)

It also shoot's Trump's "Biden Crime Family" fox out from under him and the Hunter Biden issues become moot.

johnt

Clutch_Brompton said:

On topic - one thing all the MRPs agree on is that an unusual number of seats will be decided by small or very small margins. That means GOTV is going to be absolutely crucial in determining spread bets on seat totals. Can Lab get their people to the polls? Does Reform have a GOTV effort and does it need it? Will the LibDem juggernaut roll over demoralised Con stragglers? Will the Green strategy pay off? Can the once-mighty Con electoral machine stave off total disaster?

Still six bedtimes when Sir Ed can dream of being LOTO!

It’s a great point and I would expect the Lib Dem’s to be the ones to benefit the most. They have been pouring resources into a very targeted number of seats and will, I am sure, repeat that next Thursday. Both Labour and the Tories have been campaigning across a larger group of targets and I suspect will find it more difficult to target. But reform are likely to struggle the most. They seem to have almost no ground operation and very little data. It is one of the reasons I am not convinced by some of their seat estimates.

MisterBedfordshire

rcs1000 said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Tice:

"Note Ch 4 do not deny Mr Parker is an actor

They’ve made most serious allegations, relying on an actor, using his acting voice not normal voice, not telling truth about his profession

Laughable, desperate, shocking

Ch 4 expect voters to believe them🤔


https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1806670576133500933?t=gKFko1lXYG-Rz-AenprOWg&s=19

Wait: so Lawrence Fox isn't sincere in his protestations, and is just being an actor?

He dosent make a habit of campaigning in character of Seargeant Hathaway then denying he is an actor when the press first take an interest.