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The Starmergeddon is coming for the Tories if the MRPs are right – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
  • nico679 said:

    I cannot imagine why Mister Bedfordshire doesn't focus on this Reformer?

    So @Nigel_Farage has decided to simply ignore this.

    Leslie Lilley remains a Reform party candidate and no action has been taken.

    Reform are happy to have a man in their ranks who says:

    He would "slaughter migrants then have their family taken out"

    Please don't let this pass.


    https://x.com/Otto_English/status/1806372623435370733

    Why didn’t the BBC highlight this. Bruce mentioned other comments from different candidates but these were jaw dropping .
    Because the BBC want Reform to do well. Conflict means more people watch BBC News. It’s why they also support Trump, Putin and Le Pen, as much as they can get away with.
    Paxman on Newnight was the best the beeb offered.
    I wonder what his honest opinion of Kuenssberg, Peston, et. al. Is?
    I would love to know. I miss him.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,785

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Racism hurts. There's a sort of anger that you want to smash their heads with a cricket bat but you realise you have to be better than them.
    It does. I genuinely wonder why PB tolerates it from repeat offenders.
    I like messing with their minds.

    As somebody once put it, I wind up racists by existing.

    Every time you hear - Muslims don't integrate, Muslims have no understanding of British history etc then they have to deal with me.
    I wish you could be the editor of the Daily Mail. The steam from readers’ ears could power the country for a year.
  • ...

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    I don't want Reform to make any headway but you are wrong here. They are a very, very long way from being anything like NF.
    They look like them.
    Only if you never had the 'pleasure' of experiencing the NF first hand.
    I was chased by a group of them with a friend of mine. He is black. We were walking threw Bristol city centre in the late seventies. We had a 300 yard start on them. They started screaming at us after we walked past them. Luckily for us they started to run after they shouted abuse. We legged it. We could do the 1500 metres in 5.00 minutes in those days so we lost them.
    In which case you should know not to make comparisons with Reform. And you were luckier than I was. I ended up in hospital after my run ins with them. And once in the cells as well.
    A horrid experience for you. I have met a few Reform type people. I am not a fan of them. I find them depressing, negative and ignorant. I admit I do not want to meet loads of them and analyse why they are the way they are. Just give them a wide birth and try and avoid them as much as possible. It take all sorts to make a world. Fair enough.
    Not as easy for some as for others.

    Richard has previously outlined his unavoidable run ins with one particular NF grandee. His understanding and commentary is to be respected.
    I take that on board.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,957

    A married accountant is being sued for £1.1 million by his former bosses for allegedly spending tens of thousands of pounds of company money on escorts.

    Father-of-two Mohammed Asif Khan, 45, is accused of “stealing” about £1.1 million of company money while working for North of England Coachworks, the North East’s biggest vehicle bodyshop.

    The company says “self-styled director of finance” Mr Khan splashed out about £160,000 on payments to escorts – including £56,000 to £1,000-an-hour call girl and porn star Gemma Massey.

    But while the married father admitted his “shame” after using company money to pay prostitutes, he insisted he did nothing wrong as his bosses knew how he was spending the money and were happy with the arrangement.

    ”I was ashamed of the things that happened – for my wife,” he told the High Court, but added: “The company didn’t care what I spent that money on.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/28/accountant-sued-spending-company-cash-prostitutes/

    £1,000 per hour? What exactly did she do?

    (Feel free to exceed your picture quota if it helps your answer.)
    The porn star experience is what some escorts offer.

    That's all I am saying on the subject.
    Do we have to await your memoirs for the full story?
    One of my dearest female friends worked as an [redacted], thanks to her I became friends with a few [redacted] and got to hear their stories.

    Being a man of innocent virtues, I was shocked by their stories.
    She may have an Instagram and an Only Fans if the enquirer is interested.

    I'm sure that Channel 5 did some documentaries.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,555
    edited June 28

    Obama weighs in:

    https://x.com/barackobama/status/1806758633230709017

    Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.

    I don’t know what will happen, but I know that, if you’re on the campaign, you have to pretend you’re sticking with Biden until the announcement that he’s going, so Obama saying this isn’t really evidence of anything. What Obama is saying behind closed doors is more important, and we don’t know what that is. But I’m sure Biden and Harris will both listen to him.
    If there is a move it won't be Obama that makes it first.

    It will start, as it has done already, with the media commentariat and grassroots. Then it will start to filter through to minor elected representatives. Then a couple of more important figures in the party will start to prevaricate/sound non-committal in public. Finally you'll get the big guns - the cabinet, the Clintons, the Obamas, weighing in - but likely behind the scenes.

    No-one will want to be seen to be the one who dealt the fatal blow. If it happens, it will be incredibly similar to Thatcher's downfall. Of course we'll back you to the ends of the Earth Joe, you've been terrific and you're such a good friend, but as a good friend I need to tell you you will lose. Isn't it time to think about the Party? Haven't you earned that retirement?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,873

    A married accountant is being sued for £1.1 million by his former bosses for allegedly spending tens of thousands of pounds of company money on escorts.

    Father-of-two Mohammed Asif Khan, 45, is accused of “stealing” about £1.1 million of company money while working for North of England Coachworks, the North East’s biggest vehicle bodyshop.

    The company says “self-styled director of finance” Mr Khan splashed out about £160,000 on payments to escorts – including £56,000 to £1,000-an-hour call girl and porn star Gemma Massey.

    But while the married father admitted his “shame” after using company money to pay prostitutes, he insisted he did nothing wrong as his bosses knew how he was spending the money and were happy with the arrangement.

    ”I was ashamed of the things that happened – for my wife,” he told the High Court, but added: “The company didn’t care what I spent that money on.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/28/accountant-sued-spending-company-cash-prostitutes/

    £1,000 per hour? What exactly did she do?

    (Feel free to exceed your picture quota if it helps your answer.)
    For £1,000 an hour I would assume that she was providing legal advice.

    Anyway, if she charges by the minute, fifty quid's worth would be enough for most blokes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,637

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Racism hurts. There's a sort of anger that you want to smash their heads with a cricket bat but you realise you have to be better than them.
    It does. I genuinely wonder why PB tolerates it from repeat offenders.
    I like messing with their minds.

    As somebody once put it, I wind up racists by existing.

    Every time you hear - Muslims don't integrate, Muslims have no understanding of British history etc then they have to deal with me.
    I wish you could be the editor of the Daily Mail. The steam from readers’ ears could power the country for a year.
    Can you imagine the innuendo laden headlines in the Mail?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,383
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    Yes of course, plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage, and credit to them.

    But my contention is that quite a few erstwhile Tory voters will vote for Farage. Sadly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,131
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Anybody who claims the a tide of political opinion in the medium or distant future going inevitably this way or that is talking out of their arse. There are no tides, there is no whig history or a bastard cousin thereof.

    Anybody who wishcasts their own views as inevitable under the flimsy disguise of regret is trying to demoralise political opponents into inaction or anticipatory obedience: fight back against that shit.

    Anybody who has to claim they are "extreme good at this" is trying to convince themselves as much as anyone else.

    Of course, such news is unwelcome to those who spend their lives writing stories, but real life isn't a story. It's not an arc you plot out and tell. It's a bunch of stuff that happens. You can think you spot a trend and then it all goes to shit because events, dear boy.

    The future isn't written. If you believe it is, you have to undo the whole of not just philosophy but physics too.

    And even if it was, only someone who literally thought himself a god could possibly predict it.

    Once more, when people talk about something years off in politics being "inevitable", they are lying to you.
    I can't see what you are responding to, but don't be silly. There's whole schools of philosophy called things like determinism and predeterminism and actualism which precisely claim that the future is written. As for physics the many worlds theory of quantum mechanics says pretty much that the futures are all written. Don't exaggerate.
    I suspect @Farooq is more referring to the historic determinism derided by Popper in The Poverty of Historicism.
    My reaction to Popper is always Crazy name, crazy guy.
    I always thought he and Hari Seldon would have an interesting conversation.
    "What do you think of the new series?"
    "It's shit"
    "Yup"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,557
    viewcode said:

    Here’s an interesting one.

    Say Biden resigns and Harris becomes President. The Vice Presidency is vacant. Harris is allowed to nominate her replacement, but Congress blocks it (the GOP playing silly b*gets in the House).

    Who presides over the electoral vote count in January if no Vice President is seated at that time?

    The Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, I think.

    It was in an article about the January 6th insurrection and what would have happened if the Trumpers had executed Mike Pence.
    Isn't it the President pro tempore of the Senate ?

    Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he would preside over the U.S. Senate debate surrounding disputes of the 2020 election results if Vice President Mike Pence does not show up.

    He suggested Pence was not expected to attend but Grassley’s staff later said that was a “misinterpretation” and that Pence was expected to be there.

    On Wednesday, Congress will meet to formally count the Electoral College votes after they were certified by states last month. At least 12 GOP senators and dozens of House Republicans say they intend to object to the Electoral College results as those votes are read, state by state, in a joint session that begins at noon CT Wednesday.

    During an exchange with reporters on Tuesday, Grassley was asked how he plans to vote.

    “Well, first of all, I will be — if the Vice President isn’t there and we don’t expect him to be there, I will be presiding over the Senate,” according to a transcript of his remarks sent by a spokesperson.

    Grassley serves as the president pro tempore of the Senate and will preside over any portion of the debate that Pence does not attend. But Grassley expects Pence to be present on Wednesday, according to his spokesperson.


    https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2021/01/05/grassley-suggests-he-may-preside-over-senate-debate-on-electoral-college-votes/

    Interesting that there were suggestions beforehand that Pence might not show up.
    He had a bit of a crisis of conscience. He had to talk to Dan Quayle to resolve it. Yes, that Dan Quayle.
    You say potato, I say potatoe. Potato, potatoe.
    Let's call the whole thing off.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,785
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    JohnO is voting Tory.
    Nigel_Foremain too
    If we had PR, they could cast their second votes for Plaid Cymru.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,703
    edited June 28

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I know there’s a lot else going on, but meanwhile in the Excited States the wheels are coming off the gender abattoir, as inevitably they ended up in the courts. Discovery is a wonderful thing…

    Thread: (WPATH = World Professional Association for Transgender Health)

    This summarizes the Alabama Attorney General's assessment of @WPATH, based on a trove of subpoenaed internal communications that have been unsealed this week, plus more yet to be unsealed: "In short, neither the Court nor Alabama need treat WPATH as anything other than the activist interest group it has shown itself to be. The Constitution allows States to reject WPATH’s model of “care” and protect vulnerable minors from life-altering transitioning “treatments.” The Court should grant Defendants summary judgment."

    https://x.com/benryanwriter/status/1806753486102724986

    I really wish you could actually meet a trans person.
    What has that got to do with a “Professional” (sic) association suppressing evidence and ignoring financial conflicts of interest in their advice on children?

    Read the thread - the evidence is from their own files…
    Absolutely nothing.

    What you're talking about is some kind of clever gotcha, what I'm talking about is actually knowing and being friends with trans people in real life, who are kind, and sweet, and just want to be left alone.

    FWIW, most trans people consider WPATH to be actually *hostile* to them by medicalising their condition, much as homosexuality has been medicalised in the past. But you wouldn't know that. Because you've never sat down and had a cup of coffee with a trans person - mtf or ftm - and just chatted to them about life.

    If you could actually do that, you'd realise they're much the same as you and I, and just as autonomous, and just as capable of making up their own minds about how they want to live their lives.

    I could spend the next x hours arguing this with you, or sending you links to stuff that shows how trans teen suicides rose after availability of healthcare services were cut. But I'm not here to debate that.

    Trans people are lovely and kind. They are also assholes, and ignorant. They are happy and sad, they are artists and designers, they are economists and business owners - they are just human beings like the rest of us. I know this, because I count several as my friends.

    If you want to keep on banging the drum you want to keep banging, that's your choice. But I highly suggest you just sit down and talk with a couple of the people whose lives you're actually talking about, before you judge them.
    My criticism has been directed at WPATH and Trans activists not Trans people - they are who they are and good luck to them.

    The treatment of confused children has been a scandal and is now being exposed.

    Sounds like we agree on WPATH?

    I don't personally have a take on WPATH. The trans people I know think it's nonsense, and actively harmful to them, because it restricts them from the care they need.

    As far as confused children go, if you're ever in London I could ask a couple of people to talk to you, say, a trans friend who's mtf who knew at age 12 who is my age and transitioned in their teens. Or a ftm who transitioned in their 30s but wishes the tools and resources had been available to them to come out when they were a teenager.

    Gentleness is a virtue, and the trans people I know tend to say "I knew from much younger, I wish I could have done it sooner, but I was afraid to come out because of all the hatred I'd get".

    Be kind. That's all I can say. That's all there is worth saying in this world, at the end of the day.
    The issue, as Cass identified, is that clinicians simply don’t know which children will persist in their gender distress, and which will not - with ~80% turning out to be same sex attracted or bi. With the recent significant growth in transition medication I suspect we will see growing numbers of now young adults regretting their choices. This is not about trans rights - this is about medical malpractice on vulnerable children.
    On this narrow subject, I don't disagree with you.

    There's good evidence to suggest that some children do suffer gender distress but go on to identify differently as they grow older. But then again, there's plenty of people who identify as gay or bi in their youth who consider themselves straight as they grow older. Sexuality isn't static, nor is gender identity - or at least that's my take.

    I would argue that if your'e old enough to have sex - say 16 - you're old enough to decide your gender identity. If you have issues or distress before that, then puberty blockers are a possible answer before you become old enough to decide.

    I am neither an absolutist nor an activist, just a liberal metropolitan type with a live and let live attitude. If someone says they are trans, I believe them. If they're underage, then I'm not averse to them being given a drug that delays physical puberty in order for them to make up their mind, and maybe grow out of their identity and discover their adult self.

    The evidence, however, suggests that most don't. What's fascinating is that far more ftms decide they don't want to be men than mtfs decide they don't want to be women...
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 954

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    A paid actor. But a racist for free
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,450
    edited June 28
    This might surprise some people.

    "Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    Correct. And remember they are seeing initial batches of postal votes.
    Quote
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    One thing to remember about the analysis as we move forward. Both sides are starting to see evidence of actual voting from postal vote returns."

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    37m
    Postal votes are opened in advance and parties are allowed to be present. They're not allowed to record a tally but usually can get a decent sense of whether they're on track.


    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1806785772042809684
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,801
    Nunu5 said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    A paid actor. But a racist for free
    Meh. We don't know what the arrangement was.
  • Nunu5 said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    A paid actor. But a racist for free
    Was he in Z cars or The Bill?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,785

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Racism hurts. There's a sort of anger that you want to smash their heads with a cricket bat but you realise you have to be better than them.
    It does. I genuinely wonder why PB tolerates it from repeat offenders.
    I like messing with their minds.

    As somebody once put it, I wind up racists by existing.

    Every time you hear - Muslims don't integrate, Muslims have no understanding of British history etc then they have to deal with me.
    I wish you could be the editor of the Daily Mail. The steam from readers’ ears could power the country for a year.
    Can you imagine the innuendo laden headlines in the Mail?

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Racism hurts. There's a sort of anger that you want to smash their heads with a cricket bat but you realise you have to be better than them.
    It does. I genuinely wonder why PB tolerates it from repeat offenders.
    I like messing with their minds.

    As somebody once put it, I wind up racists by existing.

    Every time you hear - Muslims don't integrate, Muslims have no understanding of British history etc then they have to deal with me.
    I wish you could be the editor of the Daily Mail. The steam from readers’ ears could power the country for a year.
    Can you imagine the innuendo laden headlines in the Mail?
    I can imagine the circulation war between the Mail and Playboy.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,282
    BBC News (Essex): Party broke Farage's promise to repay expenses – ex-Reform candidate

    Nigel Farage offered Reform UK's former candidate in Clacton a "very big role" in his campaign team, a salaried job in the constituency and repayment of thousands of pounds of expenses in return for his endorsement, the BBC has been told.

    But Tony Mack, who was asked to step aside for Mr Farage, said none of what was promised has been delivered. He said he had spent £6,000 on his campaign and had not yet seen "a penny" reimbursed.

    Reform UK's spokesperson said the situation was "very sad" and the party "operated in good faith". . . .

    SSI - At his announcement in Clacton, Farage made a point of thanking "Tony McIntyre".
  • Nunu5 said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    A paid actor. But a racist for free
    Was he in Z cars or The Bill?
    No Eastenders in the old days. A Nick Cotton type.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,383
    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Anybody who claims the a tide of political opinion in the medium or distant future going inevitably this way or that is talking out of their arse. There are no tides, there is no whig history or a bastard cousin thereof.

    Anybody who wishcasts their own views as inevitable under the flimsy disguise of regret is trying to demoralise political opponents into inaction or anticipatory obedience: fight back against that shit.

    Anybody who has to claim they are "extreme good at this" is trying to convince themselves as much as anyone else.

    Of course, such news is unwelcome to those who spend their lives writing stories, but real life isn't a story. It's not an arc you plot out and tell. It's a bunch of stuff that happens. You can think you spot a trend and then it all goes to shit because events, dear boy.

    The future isn't written. If you believe it is, you have to undo the whole of not just philosophy but physics too.

    And even if it was, only someone who literally thought himself a god could possibly predict it.

    Once more, when people talk about something years off in politics being "inevitable", they are lying to you.
    I can't see what you are responding to, but don't be silly. There's whole schools of philosophy called things like determinism and predeterminism and actualism which precisely claim that the future is written. As for physics the many worlds theory of quantum mechanics says pretty much that the futures are all written. Don't exaggerate.
    I suspect @Farooq is more referring to the historic determinism derided by Popper in The Poverty of Historicism.
    My reaction to Popper is always Crazy name, crazy guy.
    I always thought he and Hari Seldon would have an interesting conversation.
    "What do you think of the new series?"
    "It's shit"
    "Yup"
    I've only seen a little of it but from what I have seen I would concur.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,822

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?

    Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,562
    Andy_JS said:

    This might surprise some people.

    "Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    Correct. And remember they are seeing initial batches of postal votes.
    Quote
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    One thing to remember about the analysis as we move forward. Both sides are starting to see evidence of actual voting from postal vote returns."

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    37m
    Postal votes are opened in advance and parties are allowed to be present. They're not allowed to record a tally but usually can get a decent sense of whether they're on track.


    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1806785772042809684

    The fact that the Tory majority price has slid out to 280 - two hundred and bloody eighty for crying out loud! - might be related to the postal vote returns.
  • I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    Bojo should parachute into that picture.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,801
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?

    Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
    How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,562

    MAIL: Boris: Britain CAN still sweeve Starmergeddon #TomorrowsPapersToday



    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806785690174206446/photo/1

    Things that make me even more likely to vote for SKS...
    Starmergeddon sounds quite cool.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,584

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    Bojo should parachute into that picture.
    Always a mistake to crow before the actual victory.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,557
    My son has received a letter from the Vale of Glamorgan Council to say that he will get his postal vote pack on Monday. His response is what was the point of the letter? He is working away in Wrexham from Sunday but is back Thursday. Is it the procedure that he can hand the completed postal vote pack into the polling station on Thursday?

    Probably cock up rather than conspiracy, but doesn't it sum up this shambolic administration?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521
    edited June 28
    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,383
    Andy_JS said:

    This might surprise some people.

    "Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    Correct. And remember they are seeing initial batches of postal votes.
    Quote
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    One thing to remember about the analysis as we move forward. Both sides are starting to see evidence of actual voting from postal vote returns."

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    37m
    Postal votes are opened in advance and parties are allowed to be present. They're not allowed to record a tally but usually can get a decent sense of whether they're on track.


    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1806785772042809684

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    This is how it works:
    Tim (totally unremarkable)
    @forwardnotback

    PSA: Agents/others know how many PVs have been issued
    They have a good idea how many PVs their candidate has been promised
    They get daily tallies of PVs returned
    Then they can do the maths
    They do not see which way individual PVs have been cast

    No one is actually counting votes

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1806788618306076945
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,822

    BBC News (Essex): Party broke Farage's promise to repay expenses – ex-Reform candidate

    Nigel Farage offered Reform UK's former candidate in Clacton a "very big role" in his campaign team, a salaried job in the constituency and repayment of thousands of pounds of expenses in return for his endorsement, the BBC has been told.

    But Tony Mack, who was asked to step aside for Mr Farage, said none of what was promised has been delivered. He said he had spent £6,000 on his campaign and had not yet seen "a penny" reimbursed.

    Reform UK's spokesperson said the situation was "very sad" and the party "operated in good faith". . . .

    SSI - At his announcement in Clacton, Farage made a point of thanking "Tony McIntyre".

    Farage has learned his lessons well at the feet of his guru Trump.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,468

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    Bojo should parachute into that picture.
    He's there already.

    Who's the gent between Mr Hancock and Lady Thatcher?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,536

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    Yes of course, plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage, and credit to them.

    But my contention is that quite a few erstwhile Tory voters will vote for Farage. Sadly.
    Not enough for him to ever win. Thankfully!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521
    Ok I accept if there are several polls like that, then Biden will be forced to quit. He’ll get crushed in the election
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,555

    MAIL: Boris: Britain CAN still sweeve Starmergeddon #TomorrowsPapersToday



    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806785690174206446/photo/1

    Things that make me even more likely to vote for SKS...
    Starmergeddon sounds quite cool.
    As long as it doesn't feature Bruce Willis and that horrific Aerosmith song...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,562

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    Bojo should parachute into that picture.
    Always a mistake to crow before the actual victory.
    I thought that. Stupid front cover.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,383

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    Bojo should parachute into that picture.
    He's there just behind Sunak
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    Yes of course, plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage, and credit to them.

    But my contention is that quite a few erstwhile Tory voters will vote for Farage. Sadly.
    Not enough for him to ever win. Thankfully!
    If it ended up a merged Tory and Reform Party were the main Opposition to a Labour government, I can assure you under FPTP swing of the pendulum would ensure eventually the former beat the latter.

    As has been pointed out now on the other side even Corbyn would probably win this election for Labour now, again on swing of the pendulum with FPTP
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,822

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?

    Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
    How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
    Fake identity is the whole point of acting!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,517
    viewcode said:

    Here’s an interesting one.

    Say Biden resigns and Harris becomes President. The Vice Presidency is vacant. Harris is allowed to nominate her replacement, but Congress blocks it (the GOP playing silly b*gets in the House).

    Who presides over the electoral vote count in January if no Vice President is seated at that time?

    The Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, I think.

    It was in an article about the January 6th insurrection and what would have happened if the Trumpers had executed Mike Pence.
    Isn't it the President pro tempore of the Senate ?

    Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he would preside over the U.S. Senate debate surrounding disputes of the 2020 election results if Vice President Mike Pence does not show up.

    He suggested Pence was not expected to attend but Grassley’s staff later said that was a “misinterpretation” and that Pence was expected to be there.

    On Wednesday, Congress will meet to formally count the Electoral College votes after they were certified by states last month. At least 12 GOP senators and dozens of House Republicans say they intend to object to the Electoral College results as those votes are read, state by state, in a joint session that begins at noon CT Wednesday.

    During an exchange with reporters on Tuesday, Grassley was asked how he plans to vote.

    “Well, first of all, I will be — if the Vice President isn’t there and we don’t expect him to be there, I will be presiding over the Senate,” according to a transcript of his remarks sent by a spokesperson.

    Grassley serves as the president pro tempore of the Senate and will preside over any portion of the debate that Pence does not attend. But Grassley expects Pence to be present on Wednesday, according to his spokesperson.


    https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2021/01/05/grassley-suggests-he-may-preside-over-senate-debate-on-electoral-college-votes/

    Interesting that there were suggestions beforehand that Pence might not show up.
    He had a bit of a crisis of conscience. He had to talk to Dan Quayle to resolve it. Yes, that Dan Quayle.
    Arguably Dan Quayle saved the day and the Republic.

    When he became VP, no one predicted that Dan Quayle would become a New Founding Father.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521
    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Guys LOOK AT THE POLL
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,555
    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,536
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
  • Carnyx said:

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    Bojo should parachute into that picture.
    He's there already.

    Who's the gent between Mr Hancock and Lady Thatcher?
    True. He is. Him falling on top of them would have been priceless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    edited June 28
    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Could have been worse, even now Trump can't get over 50%. Biden voteshare basically unchanged, just 1% down
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,562

    Andy_JS said:

    This might surprise some people.

    "Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    Correct. And remember they are seeing initial batches of postal votes.
    Quote
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    One thing to remember about the analysis as we move forward. Both sides are starting to see evidence of actual voting from postal vote returns."

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    37m
    Postal votes are opened in advance and parties are allowed to be present. They're not allowed to record a tally but usually can get a decent sense of whether they're on track.


    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1806785772042809684

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    This is how it works:
    Tim (totally unremarkable)
    @forwardnotback

    PSA: Agents/others know how many PVs have been issued
    They have a good idea how many PVs their candidate has been promised
    They get daily tallies of PVs returned
    Then they can do the maths
    They do not see which way individual PVs have been cast

    No one is actually counting votes

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1806788618306076945
    Are they PVs verified by ward? That’s what usually gives the game away in the States.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    A wankmag for the #FBPE crowd
  • I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    Bojo should parachute into that picture.
    He's there just behind Sunak
    Yes. Instead of him standing there falling on top of them would have been hysterical.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,703

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    "You've always been the caretaker PM, Rishi..."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,801
    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?

    Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
    How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
    Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
    Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,557
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Guys LOOK AT THE POLL
    You've been like a dog with a bone today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Not now and not while the Tories are still main opposition to Labour no.

    If Farage's party was the main opposition to Labour though and you lived in a seat where Labour and Farage's party were the main 2 contenders with the LDs a poor 3rd many would. As if you didn't vote for Farage you get a Labour government and Labour MP
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228

    I love this internal Tory notion that the real issue was/is the timing of the election. I can't really see why it'd have gone much different had it been a, say, Sept/Oct election.

    It wouldn't, but it would have kept the wolves from the door for a bit longer.

    Sunak should have cockblocked for as long as he could.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Ahem. I think I have made it be clear that I will never vote for a party that has Farage as a member, let alone leader. No doubt there are many more.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    Me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,800

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    A wankmag for the #FBPE crowd
    It looks like they've just taken a photo of their readership (assuming that the New European has a readership).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
    We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,383
    edited June 28

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    A wankmag for the #FBPE crowd
    I might buy my first copy, this one could become a collector's item ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    Me.
    For now, if the Tories merged with Reform though and Farage was Leader of the Opposition to a Labour government?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,763

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    It’s perfectly possible to be a racist actor you know…. There’s no evidence this is a stitch up except under the tin foil hats of the needy right
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,873
    This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.

    The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,383
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Not now and not while the Tories are still main opposition to Labour no.

    If Farage's party was the main opposition to Labour though and you lived in a seat where Labour and Farage's party were the main 2 contenders with the LDs a poor 3rd many would. As if you didn't vote for Farage you get a Labour government and Labour MP
    ... both of which would surely be preferable to a RefUK government and a RefUK MP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    edited June 28
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
    We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
    If it was in October maybe but this is July. Trump would have needed to have got to 55-60% for the debate to have decided it, 50% still refusing to vote for Trump even now? Biden can work on that at the convention and beyond and especially in targeted ads in swing states he won in 2020
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,562

    I love this internal Tory notion that the real issue was/is the timing of the election. I can't really see why it'd have gone much different had it been a, say, Sept/Oct election.

    It wouldn't, but it would have kept the wolves from the door for a bit longer.

    Sunak should have cockblocked for as long as he could.
    Did we ever ascertain why Rishi chose 4 July? To me that remains the greatest
    mystery of this campaign.
  • I hope more people will vote than in the Trump Clinton election. 52.0%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228
    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    I spoke to a colleague at work today who's an ex-policy analyst and modeller at HM Treasury. I didn't prompt him but we got onto the election and he volunteered that he worked with him a few years back and said that he's a really sharp and smart guy, and a really nice guy too.

    He doesn't recognise how he's being portrayed in the media.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,468

    This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.

    The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.

    Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg might have an extra telegraph line installed into the local village post office, and another telegraph boy laid on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    edited June 28

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Not now and not while the Tories are still main opposition to Labour no.

    If Farage's party was the main opposition to Labour though and you lived in a seat where Labour and Farage's party were the main 2 contenders with the LDs a poor 3rd many would. As if you didn't vote for Farage you get a Labour government and Labour MP
    ... both of which would surely be preferable to a RefUK government and a RefUK MP.
    Not for most Tories, not for me either
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
    We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
    If it was in October maybe but this is July. Trump would have needed to have got to 55-60% for the debate to have decided it, 50% still refusing to vote for Trump even now? Biden can work on that at the convention and beyond and especially in targeted ads in swing states he won in 2020
    If the debate produces several polls like this then Biden may be forced to step aside. And at that point the debate will have decided the election in - at least - eliminating a sitting president
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,822

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?

    Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
    How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
    Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
    Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
    I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.

    Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?

    What was the point of doing that?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,555

    I love this internal Tory notion that the real issue was/is the timing of the election. I can't really see why it'd have gone much different had it been a, say, Sept/Oct election.

    It wouldn't, but it would have kept the wolves from the door for a bit longer.

    Sunak should have cockblocked for as long as he could.
    Did we ever ascertain why Rishi chose 4 July? To me that remains the greatest
    mystery of this campaign.
    I thought the rumours that he was trying to avoid Mr Brady's mail round were a bit fanciful, but now I am starting to wonder.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,584
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
    We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
    If it was in October maybe but this is July. Trump would have needed to have got to 55-60% for the debate to have decided it, 50% still refusing to vote for Trump even now? Biden can work on that at the convention and beyond and especially in targeted ads in swing states he won in 2020
    No he can't.

    I have stuck with Biden, hoped and wished and crossed fingers for months like most of the NY Times writers.

    But it is time to accept reality. He lost 2024 last night and nothing will get that back.

    This is turning into a fucking Shakespearean tragedy.

    It is time for him to leave the bloody stage.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,873
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Not now and not while the Tories are still main opposition to Labour no.

    If Farage's party was the main opposition to Labour though and you lived in a seat where Labour and Farage's party were the main 2 contenders with the LDs a poor 3rd many would. As if you didn't vote for Farage you get a Labour government and Labour MP
    You prefer fascists to democratic socialists. Fair enough.

    Your previous cheerleading for the Falange was a big clue.
  • MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    I spoke to a colleague at work today who's an ex-policy analyst and modeller at HM Treasury. I didn't prompt him but we got onto the election and he volunteered that he worked with him a few years back and said that he's a really sharp and smart guy, and a really nice guy too.

    He doesn't recognise how he's being portrayed in the media.
    He does get a lot if stick. He seems all right to me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380

    This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.

    The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.

    Both of them?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,555
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
    We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
    If it was in October maybe but this is July. Trump would have needed to have got to 55-60% for the debate to have decided it, 50% still refusing to vote for Trump even now? Biden can work on that at the convention and beyond and especially in targeted ads in swing states he won in 2020
    If the debate produces several polls like this then Biden may be forced to step aside. And at that point the debate will have decided the election in - at least - eliminating a sitting president
    Likely the first US presidential debate of real consequence since Ford/Carter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521

    I love this internal Tory notion that the real issue was/is the timing of the election. I can't really see why it'd have gone much different had it been a, say, Sept/Oct election.

    It wouldn't, but it would have kept the wolves from the door for a bit longer.

    Sunak should have cockblocked for as long as he could.
    Did we ever ascertain why Rishi chose 4 July? To me that remains the greatest
    mystery of this campaign.
    Indeed. There is no good answer, yet

    And nothing I’ve read really fits
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Not now and not while the Tories are still main opposition to Labour no.

    If Farage's party was the main opposition to Labour though and you lived in a seat where Labour and Farage's party were the main 2 contenders with the LDs a poor 3rd many would. As if you didn't vote for Farage you get a Labour government and Labour MP
    You prefer fascists to democratic socialists. Fair enough.

    Your previous cheerleading for the Falange was a big clue.
    Farage is a hard right nationalist conservative, not a Fascist, leftwingers like you calling him a Fascist will just make even more rightwingers vote for him
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,993
    Leon said:

    I love this internal Tory notion that the real issue was/is the timing of the election. I can't really see why it'd have gone much different had it been a, say, Sept/Oct election.

    It wouldn't, but it would have kept the wolves from the door for a bit longer.

    Sunak should have cockblocked for as long as he could.
    Did we ever ascertain why Rishi chose 4 July? To me that remains the greatest
    mystery of this campaign.
    Indeed. There is no good answer, yet

    And nothing I’ve read really fits
    Aak HYUFD again
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,564
    Nunu5 said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    A paid actor. But a racist for free
    Well we don't know. I have to admit it's a fascinating one. Here's a supposed video of him doing his schtick

    https://x.com/jamesks92/status/1806635327605400052
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
    We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
    If it was in October maybe but this is July. Trump would have needed to have got to 55-60% for the debate to have decided it, 50% still refusing to vote for Trump even now? Biden can work on that at the convention and beyond and especially in targeted ads in swing states he won in 2020
    No he can't.

    I have stuck with Biden, hoped and wished and crossed fingers for months like most of the NY Times writers.

    But it is time to accept reality. He lost 2024 last night and nothing will get that back.

    This is turning into a fucking Shakespearean tragedy.

    It is time for him to leave the bloody stage.
    For who? Show me the polls where another Democrat does better v Trump
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,584

    This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.

    The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.

    Dunno.

    There's a lot of chat about trying to delay leadership vote for a few months so that everyone can calm down and take stock etc etc.

    I am on Fox at 160/1

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,801
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?

    Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
    How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
    Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
    Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
    I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.

    Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?

    What was the point of doing that?
    You really are being quite terrifyingly dense. If this was set up as a hit piece to discredit Reform, deliberately conceived as a media scandal, HOW COULD HE POSSIBLY HAVE USED A FALSE NAME?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228
    Sean_F said:

    I see the New European is showing reverence and respect for the Conservative Party with a special commemorative issue:

    image

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1806091462947348530

    A wankmag for the #FBPE crowd
    It looks like they've just taken a photo of their readership (assuming that the New European has a readership).
    They claim they sell 30,000 copies a week, and I keep seeing a handful in most newsagents most weeks.

    But, I've never seen anyone ever buy one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,468
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    Pity he chose to do it about the words of a paid actor doing 'secret filming work'. One wonders if he'll have to apologise.
    If he was a "paid actor" playing the part of a rough racist in order to discredit Reform and Farage then why was he using his own name?

    Surely if he was playing a part then he would assume a name that fit his character rather than use his own name.
    How could he possibly have done that? A fake identity would have been rumbled in seconds!
    Yes, RefUK's vetting procedures are famously watertiii... wait
    Not before the event - he was allowed to go out canvassing without even being a party member. I mean after it. The papers know your identity, social media, Onlyfans account etc. as soon as you do so much as throw a milkshake. He could never have used "Racey McRacistface" - to do this he was always going to have to be him. He just didn't cover his tracks as a jobbing actor nearly well enough.
    I am really struggling to get to grips with your version of this conspiracy theory.

    Are you suggesting that he used his own name deliberately as he was certain to be exposed as an actor?

    What was the point of doing that?
    Also, LG's hypothesis has the clear corollary that about half a dozen other actors are involved. Maybe he could find their websites as well.
  • This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.

    The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.

    Dunno.

    There's a lot of chat about trying to delay leadership vote for a few months so that everyone can calm down and take stock etc etc.

    I am on Fox at 160/1

    Liam. He should retire.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380
    Carnyx said:

    This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.

    The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.

    Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg might have an extra telegraph line installed into the local village post office, and another telegraph boy laid on.
    I didn't think he was that way inclined.
  • Genuinely to still vote Tory now is insane. My Dad is abstaining.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,584
    edited June 28

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Guys LOOK AT THE POLL
    You've been like a dog with a bone today.
    Leon's right.

    This is done.

    Dems: get this sorted. It will be like a tooth extraction. Horrific at the time but pleasurable relief to follow.

    Biden told us he was the bridge to the next generation.

    Well the bridge has been given two months before it falls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    New Leger national poll

    Pre-debate 6/22-6/24
    🟦 Biden 43%
    🟥 Trump 41%

    Post-debate
    🟥 Trump 50%
    🟦 Biden 42%


    https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1806786996704043009?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Yup. I think in time it'll settle back to a 2-3 point deficit. But the damage is done.
    We’re always told debates don’t really decide elections. This one might
    If it was in October maybe but this is July. Trump would have needed to have got to 55-60% for the debate to have decided it, 50% still refusing to vote for Trump even now? Biden can work on that at the convention and beyond and especially in targeted ads in swing states he won in 2020
    If the debate produces several polls like this then Biden may be forced to step aside. And at that point the debate will have decided the election in - at least - eliminating a sitting president
    Biden can't be forced to step aside, he has the majority of delegates at the Dem convention already.

    He might step down but correctly will refuse to do so until some polls show other candidates doing better v Trump than he is
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,873
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Not now and not while the Tories are still main opposition to Labour no.

    If Farage's party was the main opposition to Labour though and you lived in a seat where Labour and Farage's party were the main 2 contenders with the LDs a poor 3rd many would. As if you didn't vote for Farage you get a Labour government and Labour MP
    ... both of which would surely be preferable to a RefUK government and a RefUK MP.
    Not for most Tories, not for me either
    Sad.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,562

    I love this internal Tory notion that the real issue was/is the timing of the election. I can't really see why it'd have gone much different had it been a, say, Sept/Oct election.

    It wouldn't, but it would have kept the wolves from the door for a bit longer.

    Sunak should have cockblocked for as long as he could.
    Did we ever ascertain why Rishi chose 4 July? To me that remains the greatest
    mystery of this campaign.
    I thought the rumours that he was trying to avoid Mr Brady's mail round were a bit fanciful, but now I am starting to wonder.
    I assume you mean Sir Mrs Brady Old Lady? Yes, I suppose that could be it. The inside story book of this campaign could be a corker!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,228
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    Me.
    For now, if the Tories merged with Reform though and Farage was Leader of the Opposition to a Labour government?
    Laying Farage for next Conservative leader at 12/1 seems a great bet to me.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,536
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB consensus is that Reform will underperfom on the night.

    And... I tend to agree. I suspect that they will end up on roughly the same vote share as the LibDems (i.e. 13%) on the night. I suspect that they'll win Ashfield and Clacton, and a couple of other seats, but that they will suffer from being -effectively- the official opposition to Labour in the North, and to the Conservatives in the East.

    My view is that Reform draws principally from the same pool as UKIP 2015 and from people who voted Leave, but don't normally vote. I think there is going to be some negative impact from the lack of Councillors, voting records, posters, leaflets, tellers, knocker-uppers, etc. Now, sure, these things aren't essential. But if you're in the mid-teens, they can make the difference between an efficiently and an inefficiently distributed vote. I would point out that the LibDems (and their predecessors) only broke through at the national level after they'd built up enough local strength to convince people that they aren't likely to be a wasted voted.

    Now, I could be wrong. It is possible that you see the Conservative vote collapse towards Reform, as happened in Canada in 1993. But I think Farage is a pretty divisive figure, and that puts a ceiling on his support.

    I'd like to point out too that although Farage named his new Party after the Canadian precedent in an attempt to get this sort of comparison, the two could not be further apart.

    Reform (CA) was founded due to extremely legitimate concerns from the Western provinces that had been overlooked, taken for granted and treated badly compared to Ottawa which was looking after itself with the Western provinces money and Quebec which was getting treated much better due to it's threatening independence.

    Reform (NF) is the National Front.
    Redfield has Reform on 18% in their latest poll, Reform Canada got 18% in 1993, polling wise Reform is closer to their Canadian cousins now than NF got anywhere near ever
    Redfield are wrong.

    And even if they do get 18% (they won't) the difference is Canada's Conservatives and and Canada's Reform could address by resolving the policy divide of the issues the Western Provinces rightly objected to.

    Reform (CA) were more like Cameroon Conservatives than Nigel Farage, with the whole in Salmond's pocket etc being what Reform were objecting to.

    Tories won't vote for the National Front whatever NF call themselves.
    Depends on your definition of 'Tories', surely?

    People voting Tory this time? Well of course you're right by definition but it's a meaningless assertion.
    People who voted Tory in 2019? I think all the evidence suggest about 1/3/ have switched to Reform.
    Tory members? Hard to tell but many seem to prefer Reform-style populist policies.
    How many Tories here are still voting for the party but would never vote for Farage?

    TSE? MarqueeMark? BigG? Probably more I've forgot.

    Plenty of Tories will never vote for Farage.
    I am voting Tory and always will as long as it exists as an independent party, if it merged with Reform though I suppose I would follow suit and vote for Farage. I could never vote Labour and the choice for PM would end up being Farage or the Labour leader then
    Yes, I knew that.

    There's a reason you weren't included in this list of loyal and decent Tories who will still vote Tory even this year but would never vote Farage.

    So we have TSE, Mark, BigG, JohnO and NigelForemaine too I should add.

    If it weren't for Tory housing policy costing my vote this year I'd be on that list too.

    Farage is toxic. Not to you, but to others. I suspect there's more loyal Tories on this site who would NOT vote for him than who would.
    Ahem. I think I have made it be clear that I will never vote for a party that has Farage as a member, let alone leader. No doubt there are many more.
    Sorry David, I wasn't sure if you were still Tory this year.

    Just a very disappointed one I think.

    CR should have included you too. :)

    I'm sure there's many, many more I've missed too. Point is a considerable number of loyal Tories would never vote Farage to Parliament. 👍
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380
    Leon said:

    I love this internal Tory notion that the real issue was/is the timing of the election. I can't really see why it'd have gone much different had it been a, say, Sept/Oct election.

    It wouldn't, but it would have kept the wolves from the door for a bit longer.

    Sunak should have cockblocked for as long as he could.
    Did we ever ascertain why Rishi chose 4 July? To me that remains the greatest
    mystery of this campaign.
    Indeed. There is no good answer, yet

    And nothing I’ve read really fits
    The most likely explanation that I have heard is that he thought he was going to be subject to a leadership challenge and forced the election through before that could happen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,468
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    This time next week, the Tory leadership hopefuls who have clung on to their seats will be having the telephone lines installed.

    The excitement of another election to entertain us over the summer.

    Maybe Mr Rees-Mogg might have an extra telegraph line installed into the local village post office, and another telegraph boy laid on.
    I didn't think he was that way inclined.
    Oops! I obviously don't have a dirty mind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,822
    edited June 28

    MattW said:

    I've finally listened to Rishi Sunak's comments in reply to the RefUK slurs.

    TBH I think it's the most straightforward and genuine thing I have seen from him all campaign.

    I spoke to a colleague at work today who's an ex-policy analyst and modeller at HM Treasury. I didn't prompt him but we got onto the election and he volunteered that he worked with him a few years back and said that he's a really sharp and smart guy, and a really nice guy too.

    He doesn't recognise how he's being portrayed in the media.
    I don't think he is a bad guy. He is just in the wrong job, where his skillset doesn't fit. For another 6 nights anyway...

    Sunak doesn't inspire the same loathing as Johnson or Farage, more pity for someone so out of their depth.
This discussion has been closed.