I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
The point is you want us to be soft and cuddly with a nasty party of racists and bigots and Putin apologists, that somehow found many quite literal fascists as candidates, rather than call them what they are - extremists.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
As for the rest of this tripe, it's the standard 'nasty party of racist bigots' that gets chucked at every right wing party that dares to challenge the prevailing consensus. It's a pathetic spectacle to see an avowed libertarian free marketeer chucking around such terms, but hey, you do you.
I’m calling you out over this.
Farage and Reform are extreme on the majority of people’s political barometer. If you tell yourself that they’re not that says more about you. Stop trying to pretend to us otherwise. It’s a classic tactic of extremists throughout history that they try to make out that they are decent people and not extreme at all.
I only partially agree.
Much of what Reform have been saying for mos of this year has been for at least 50% of the population fairly uncontroversial - immigration is too high, taxes are too high, work is not being rewarded. The sorts of things you'd expect a Conservative opposition party to be saying, and unsurprising given the historically high levels of immigration and tax we currently have. Not likely to win much support in Islington, but not surprising opinions to hear in Surrey or Devon, I would have thought. Well within the Overton window; if that is extremist, much of the country is extremist.
And then Farage came along and inserted himself as leader. Farage isn't to everyone's tastes and certainly not to mine, but until recently I wouldn't have described him as an extremist.
But then: a) Farage was challenged on the Putin issue. He could easily have tacked back to the mainstream on this, but didn't. I'd argue that therefore, yes, he is an extremist on Russia (along with Corbyn and Galloway), and as that is one of the most important issues facing government today, yes, he is an extremist. and b) almost incredibly, Reform candidates appeared to be falling over themselves to join him.
So while I don't think it's the case that having a lot of views which tally with the kinds of themes Reform were pushing is extremist, it does appear to be the case that there are quite a lot of extremists among Reform candidates. Including, perhaps, its current leader.
Once again, I can't help thinking Reform would have been better off sticking with Richard Tice.
Nope. It was Farage that energised them. Their problem, if such it be, is their reliance on his one-man-brand. If something happened to Nige they may just fizzle out. Maybe.
Farage both energises and holds back the populist right. He has a loyal following and an uncanny knack of getting himself into the news. But he is a known quantity and a lot of what people know of him they don’t like.
That’s not to say (worryingly) I think he could never challenge for power, it’s just that I think he makes it less likely. If you look at figures like Meloni, Le Pen, etc, their brand has all been about softening the image of the ‘hard/far/populist/whatever’ right. Their goal (in the case of MLP, one that has been going on for decades at this point) is to get to a place where people say - they’re not scary or extreme anymore, I can give these people a go. Does Nige have that knack? For some, yes. But for an electoral coalition to challenge for power - I’m not quite sure.
A Counterpoint: Wilders in the Netherlands. Very much a known quantity and very much considered on the extreme fringes, but the PVV now doing very well. So perhaps there is hope for Nige.
Re MLP, that is absolutely correct.
In fact, she's tacked so far to the center, that Zemmour has appeared off her right flank as she's no longer able to attract the hard core anti-semites.
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
Is indeed the correct answer. And I like the way you didn't spell out the whole title. You get a bonus point that could be crucial.
A gem of an answer ?
I like the quote attributed to Aristotle - 'It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.'
I like that. The best thinkers are the ones who, in a debate, can fairly summarise their opponents' views in a way that their opponent will find acceptable, and still take them apart. That requires a theory of mind and the ability to listen. Something that a remarkable number of people here lack.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
The problem as I have said in the past is that it is ever easier to run businesses in countries you don't even live in, and some countries know this and making it very attractive offers.
I've spent the last couple of weeks eyeing up my options, should my tax bill double. There are some ridiculously cheap ways of leaving the country for example the D7 visa for Portugal only requires a passive income of €705 a month and comes with substantial tax breaks for the first decade of living there.
45% of capital gains taxes are raised on disposals of greater than £5m, so leaving to avoid the difference in a 20% rate (fairly average) vs a 45% rate (one of the highest in the world) makes sense to almost half the tax base currently paying the tax. 20% of £5m is £1m, but 45% of it is £2.25m, and there are places round the world you can pay 0%. Heck, you can pay 0% on the Isle of Man if you're really determined. But Dubai etc will welcome you with open arms.
While there's been no research done on 20% -> 45% HMRC's own forecasts have suggested that a 10% raise in the higher rate (28%) would be net negative to the treasury by £1.1bn in 2025-2026 and negative £2.1bn the year after.
For these reasons I hope Rachel Reeves will be sensible and avoid the calls from within her own party to tax CGT as income. However I suspect with a supermajority, the clarion call to bash the rich will be too great to resist. It will end up harming both the country, and the economy.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I never made it through to the end of the System of the World!
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Well yes: I think that's inevitable when the LibDems are essentially flat nationally, while Labour is up.
It means there is a fair chance that a fair number of Conservative MPs will be saved by a split opposition. (I'd also note that Reform is only on 3% there. That's quite surprising. And encouraging for them. It suggests they aren't going to suffer too much from Alliance 1983 disease.)
Do we really know where Reform support is?
A constituency forecast popped up on twitter feed which stated that Dan Jarvis's seat (Barnsley Central) was Too Close To Call. Reform at his heels. I don't believe that for a second, but I can believe that their support is highly concentrated in WWC seats and that ultimately if they don't implode they could become a threat to Labour in a way that not even Boris was in his prime. They just don't have the Tory brand baggage. But in traditional Tory middle-class seats - a very low ceiling I would have thought.
I should say that up here - SNP/Tory marginal - Reform are totally non-existent, no-one mentions them, and the Tory vote seems remarkably resilient. No sign of the haemorrhaging elsewhere. They just all hate the SNP so much. The reluctant regard that folk had for Sturgeon in 2019 seems to have gone totally. A different dynamic altogether.
I've had a punt on Barnsley south. Brexit were close there last time and it looks just about he right collection of villages outside Barnsley proper to pull a decent Reform haul in to me.
The betting markets on election night could be quite volatile if the exit poll puts Labour materially below their polling figures. They could get 33-4% of the vote but still win a huge majority.
The exit poll doesn’t give vote shares just seats.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
I went from VHDL/SystemVerilog to Python at my current role, which means my code follows conventions of a strongly typed language right down to my personal paranoia about variable names. Two weeks trying to find a bug caused by a miscapitalization was enough thanks. However, since I never really worked in software object oriented languages it isn't very "Pythonic".
That reminds me of 2 days back in 2011 where 2 of us tried to spot a typo in some historic Java code...
when you have external parameter names of Variable and internal names of variable a single case is fine to find..
This one was particularly perplexing because it was a synthesizer - simulator mismatch. When you're writing HDL for deployment to a gate array you test on a simulation engine before doing the long, tedious synth and retime step. I'd written some code which linked up a state machine to a trigger output which was meant to fire when the control software gave a transmit command. That worked fine in sim, but when I ran it on the hardware I couldn't get the system to transmit to save me. I sat with a logic analyser, scope and probes for two days, generating multiple builds with test outputs so I could see what was going on inside the system. I couldn't figure out what was wrong because it was all working fine, but the output was still driving zeroes. Eventually I pulled up the generated schematic and went through it panel by panel and worked out that the output had been tied zero by the synthesizer. Took me about another day to spot that instead of thisVariable, I'd typed ThisVariable instead. The synthesiser should have caught that and replicated the behaviour but didn't. Given this software is meant to be aerospace safety compliant and one of the strictest criteria is that simulations must faithfully represent the operation of the hardware I was not happy.
FPGA synthesiser / compilers are notoriously awful: What is it about hardware companies that makes them completely incapable of producing high quality software?
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
Ordinal numbers can be misleading and the quote is not meaningful unless:
it is accompanied by the absolute number of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the percentage of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the distribution of millionaires that are leaving their native country
It's also ignoring that an awful lot of people who own a half decent house in the South East are paper millionaires.
Add up the house & pension for a middle-class person in this country & you’ll hit a £million for a sizable chunk of them.
The state pension is worth £250k at current annuity rates all by itself, although people tend to omit this from their “personal” wealth.
Damn. You've just reminded me I need to find an IFA to discuss my pension & savings before the month is out. The place I'd intended to use seems to have closed.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I never made it through to the end of the System of the World!
It can be a bit of a chore. I feel like it was worth reading once, but as Phil says there's not three books worth of stuff.
I feel that way about A Requiem for Homo Sapiens as well.
Honestly one of the best book series I've read in recent years (3 books in at least) was Harry Turtledove's Darkness series, basically a fantasy series WW2. Very different to anything else I'd seen in the genre, and very well done.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
I went from VHDL/SystemVerilog to Python at my current role, which means my code follows conventions of a strongly typed language right down to my personal paranoia about variable names. Two weeks trying to find a bug caused by a miscapitalization was enough thanks. However, since I never really worked in software object oriented languages it isn't very "Pythonic".
That reminds me of 2 days back in 2011 where 2 of us tried to spot a typo in some historic Java code...
when you have external parameter names of Variable and internal names of variable a single case is fine to find..
This one was particularly perplexing because it was a synthesizer - simulator mismatch. When you're writing HDL for deployment to a gate array you test on a simulation engine before doing the long, tedious synth and retime step. I'd written some code which linked up a state machine to a trigger output which was meant to fire when the control software gave a transmit command. That worked fine in sim, but when I ran it on the hardware I couldn't get the system to transmit to save me. I sat with a logic analyser, scope and probes for two days, generating multiple builds with test outputs so I could see what was going on inside the system. I couldn't figure out what was wrong because it was all working fine, but the output was still driving zeroes. Eventually I pulled up the generated schematic and went through it panel by panel and worked out that the output had been tied zero by the synthesizer. Took me about another day to spot that instead of thisVariable, I'd typed ThisVariable instead. The synthesiser should have caught that and replicated the behaviour but didn't. Given this software is meant to be aerospace safety compliant and one of the strictest criteria is that simulations must faithfully represent the operation of the hardware I was not happy.
FPGA synthesiser / compilers are notoriously awful: What is it about hardware companies that makes them completely incapable of producing high quality software?
It was ModelSim that was the culprit there, but yes I had to become an expert in incomprehensible error codes to do my job.
The funny bit is, six weeks ago, it really did look like the Russians might be winning. Sure, they were taking horrendous casualties, but they were advancing on all fronts.
But in the last month, the Russian advance has totally stalled. So much so, that the Russians are bringing in troops from one of the poorest countries in the world to try and bolster their numbers.
It's hard to see how a bunch of starving, ill equipped North Korean conscripts will tip the tide for the Russians. And the fact that it is clearly increasingly hard for Russia to get enough troops from the provinces to fight is a sign of just how thinly stretched they are right now.
Putin is desperately hanging on and hoping for a Trump victory that will, he hopes, force Ukraine to the negotiating table so he can claim victory.
But I'm increasingly confident that Ukraine will hang on irrespective of what happens in the US. And I'm enormously relieved that Starmer is likely to continue to fully support Ukraine. I just hope that other European countries are as steadfast.
I wonder how much Kim is charging Vlad for his new source of cannon fodder?
Russia must be really desperate if they’re reduced to scraping up the dregs from NK in order to find more warm bodies to throw at the front.
There’s quite the opportunity for the Ukrainians to pick up hundreds of defectors in the next few weeks. No way the NorKs have any loyalty to Putin, and they can be offered citizenship of a Western Ukraine for the rebuilding of the country. They could be though of in the same way that the UK thinks of the Gurkhas.
Are you mad. Defecting from N Korea gets your parents grandparents, wife and kids deported to a concentration camp for life.
And ask zimbabwe what it is like having North Korean Army trained military let loose among you.
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
I'm slightly sceptical of this. I don't think a voter so confused would so readily be aware that the PM's wife was a non-dom. I think 9 out of 10 people would look at you blankly if you told them.
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Looking at the data tables for this (available from here), the raw numbers are: LAB 160 LDM 64 CON 130 GRN 20 RFM 26
So there's some hefty weighting going on to arrive at the percentages above. Can anybody who understands these things take a look at the supplementary questions asked, and work out what has motivated the weighting? (It's not just "likelihood to vote" - I looked at that myself.)
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
Ordinal numbers can be misleading and the quote is not meaningful unless:
it is accompanied by the absolute number of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the percentage of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the distribution of millionaires that are leaving their native country
It's also ignoring that an awful lot of people who own a half decent house in the South East are paper millionaires.
Add up the house & pension for a middle-class person in this country & you’ll hit a £million for a sizable chunk of them.
The state pension is worth £250k at current annuity rates all by itself, although people tend to omit this from their “personal” wealth.
OTOH there are issues with 'transporting' the state pension abroad, with curious anomalies.
Yes, this is definitely a “take advice” or at least do some proper research first scenario. I think you’re generally OK emigrating to the EEA or USA, but anywhere else can be a bit fraught.
In particular you lose the RPI annual increases if you emigrate to a sizable chunk of the world, which makes the downside risk of a £ devaluation during your retired future exceptionally painful.
Has anyone seen any constituency polls on Southend east, and Southend West, bookies have Labour marginal favourites in Southend West, and strong favourites in Southend East. If the Torys lose both of them, they will be in for a torrid night next week, in the Blair years Labour never came within a sniff of coming anywhere near winning in Southend, I'm not totally convinced they will this time
But this time there is a right wing alternative that will take big chunks of the tory vote in both seats.
If 2019 was about the North aligning more with the South in terms of the kind of places that can go Tory, 2024 is about the South returning the complement in terms of the types of places that can go Labour.
Its why I think this election will be fascinating, seats that have never been anywhere near Labour, turning Red next week, there will be a lot of people waking up on Friday, if the polls are to be believed, saying jesus we have got a Labour MP
Including a few new Labour MPs, who thought they were going to be paper candidates.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I find that after a Diamond Age - the one thing Neal Stephenson needed was a decent editor - but he got to the point as with JK Rowling where the editor can't say - can you make it 100,000 words shorter...
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
What impresses me was this random guy knew what nondoms were, and c ould instantly name an admittedly prominent example of the species.
Labour has been banging on about non-doms for years, and Jeremy Hunt either agrees or more likely was cynically shooting Labour's fox when he abolished non-dom tax breaks in his last budget.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Summer music festivals are a significant drain on productivity with the massive traffic congestion they cause. Mind you, so are Highways England with their long overrunning "improvement" schemes such as M6 J23-26.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
Would be so much better if the S&DRly line was reopened including the station at West Pennard. The trains of cattle trucks could get off the LSWR line at Templecombe.
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
I think the problem is most, nay, all, people will not have a view or handle on all the evidence, they will not agree or understand on the significance of all that evidence that they are aware of, so even the more evidence based assertions are, outside of extreme academic circles, ultimately advanced gut feelings to some degree.
So I'm sympathetic to people taking a simple feeling about things when predicting, so long as they can explain why they think such evidence they are aware of is wrong or not a significant as other factors.
Personally I think the evidence we do have is Tories are looking at sub 100, but I'm prepared to believe if things go well it could rise to 150.
Anything above that and I'll have extreme egg on my face.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
Personally I prefer Ruby... Matz's attitude of optimising for programmer happiness makes me Fittier, Happier and More Productive.
Is ruby still a thing? I have a ruby book in my pile of books to throw away but our one customer who was going to use ruby on rails, didn't.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I never made it through to the end of the System of the World!
Sensible man. I did & on reflection it wasn’t worth it despite some standout moments.
The Bond-style heist on the Royal Mint was a highlight. But not worth wading through all the rest for.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
Did you have to walk intoi Taunton? They used to have a bus stop outside the station for the Levels towns such as Glastonbury, but inexplicably scrapped that some years ago. Acute pain in the fundament.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I find that after a Diamond Age - the one thing Neal Stephenson needed was a decent editor - but he got to the point as with JK Rowling where the editor can't say - can you make it 100,000 words shorter...
It's interesting as there are innumerable examples of artistic works which can be pointed to as examples of whetere things were improved by editors or producers. Plenty that may be ruined by interference too, but authors themselves are often aware of how it can improve them.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Summer music festivals are a significant drain on productivity with the massive traffic congestion they cause. Mind you, so are Highways England with their long overrunning "improvement" schemes such as M6 J23-26.
And green nutters who have launched more vexatious litigation delaying the A303 stonehenge tunnel again
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
Is indeed the correct answer. And I like the way you didn't spell out the whole title. You get a bonus point that could be crucial.
I really need to read more Neal Stephenson. I've not even read Cryptonomicon.
I read it in around 2010, in the post-laptop pre-tablet days, when you had to read books over lunch. It was one of the few books in the office where I worked so I read it avidly, spread over many days. At the time food was a pleasure not a list, and I had gloopy salads in plastic trays in one hand whilst turning the pages with the other. It's a brick, and one of his better ones before he let size get the better of him. It took me a few weeks. I laughed in "Silicon Valley" when HR told Gulfoyle this:
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
I think the problem is most, nay, all, people will not have a view or handle on all the evidence, they will not agree or understand on the significance of all that evidence that they are aware of, so even the more evidence based assertions are, outside of extreme academic circles, ultimately advanced gut feelings to some degree.
So I'm sympathetic to people taking a simple feeling about things when predicting, so long as they can explain why they think such evidence they are aware of is wrong or not a significant as other factors.
Personally I think the evidence we do have is Tories are looking at sub 100, but I'm prepared to believe if things go well it could rise to 150.
Anything above that and I'll have extreme egg on my face.
Nigel Farage forgetting which side of the Atlantic he was on when opining on the SMO has not gone down well according to various reports, which might help Conservatives.
There's a quote from once-fashionable polling guru Nate Silver: When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I find that after a Diamond Age - the one thing Neal Stephenson needed was a decent editor - but he got to the point as with JK Rowling where the editor can't say - can you make it 100,000 words shorter...
Agreed - Diamond Age wonderful. I'm a massive Stephenson fan (my favourite is Anathem - profound things to say about deep time, knowledge and what lasts even if it goes a bit batshit at the end). I've also read 'Fall, or Dodge in Hell' (profound things to say about what might happen when we actually get to to upload consciousness into the cloud and essentially achieve immortality - although Greg Bear and dozens of others were there first - Cory Doctorow good on this in 'walkaway') and in both those books there is the moment around page 300 where you know you are in for 'the slog'...
In his book 'Reamde' I never made it past page 300 even though the set-up was brilliant.
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
I think the problem is most, nay, all, people will not have a view or handle on all the evidence, they will not agree or understand on the significance of all that evidence that they are aware of, so even the more evidence based assertions are, outside of extreme academic circles, ultimately advanced gut feelings to some degree.
So I'm sympathetic to people taking a simple feeling about things when predicting, so long as they can explain why they think such evidence they are aware of is wrong or not a significant as other factors.
Personally I think the evidence we do have is Tories are looking at sub 100, but I'm prepared to believe if things go well it could rise to 150.
Anything above that and I'll have extreme egg on my face.
As I've pointed out here before I seriously don't know the result. I know that Labour will win and have a majority but it may be 50 or 250.
Equally the Tories may have 20 seats or 170 - it's going to be on the tightest of margins and very much based on how many people go out and vote Tory on the day.
And yes it's a stupidly broad ranged but it's down to efficiency of voting and Labour / anti-Tory votes are obvious. will right wing voters turn up and vote Tory or will they vote Reform or will they simply sit at home. I don't know and I don't think anyone else knows either.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
The problem as I have said in the past is that it is ever easier to run businesses in countries you don't even live in, and some countries know this and making it very attractive offers.
I've spent the last couple of weeks eyeing up my options, should my tax bill double. There are some ridiculously cheap ways of leaving the country for example the D7 visa for Portugal only requires a passive income of €705 a month and comes with substantial tax breaks for the first decade of living there.
45% of capital gains taxes are raised on disposals of greater than £5m, so leaving to avoid the difference in a 20% rate (fairly average) vs a 45% rate (one of the highest in the world) makes sense to almost half the tax base currently paying the tax. 20% of £5m is £1m, but 45% of it is £2.25m, and there are places round the world you can pay 0%. Heck, you can pay 0% on the Isle of Man if you're really determined. But Dubai etc will welcome you with open arms.
While there's been no research done on 20% -> 45% HMRC's own forecasts have suggested that a 10% raise in the higher rate (28%) would be net negative to the treasury by £1.1bn in 2025-2026 and negative £2.1bn the year after.
For these reasons I hope Rachel Reeves will be sensible and avoid the calls from within her own party to tax CGT as income. However I suspect with a supermajority, the clarion call to bash the rich will be too great to resist. It will end up harming both the country, and the economy.
Avoiding the difference between 20% and a hypothetical new 45% rate by messing about with domicile is not an option. Anyone sitting on a big gain taxable at 20% in my view wants their head feeling if they don't sell at least a big chunk now. CGT is going up, very possibly in an emergency budget To Save The NHS before end July, and it is not coming down till next time there's a con majority with a thriving economy and the deficit under control 2095?
It's too late anyway to be clever about this. You have to bugger off and be resident abroad and *then* sell your asset, and anyone now resident in the UK is resident here till next April cos da man at da revenue doesn't recognise part years. So even if there's no budget till autumn that doesn't really help
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
I've been to Glastonbury twice - 1997 and 1998. 1997 was the muddiest year for a generation. 1998 was the wettest since 1997.
I didn't go after that. And there was always an element of me praying for rain to justify my decision.
That said, I don't really get Glastonbury any more. And I know I'm in my late 40s now and shouldn't get it. But I do get it. The acts there have aged faster than I have. Bloody Elton John and Madonna and the like, watched by balding men called Clive and Nigel from the Cotswolds and South West London, and their wives. It's become the One Show in a field.
Still surprised at Heathener's report that Brexit was welcomed though. You still don't get many pensioners from the Lincolnshire Coast or truck drivers from Essex. Or maybe you do. As I say, I haven't been for 24 years.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
Personally I prefer Ruby... Matz's attitude of optimising for programmer happiness makes me Fittier, Happier and More Productive.
Is ruby still a thing? I have a ruby book in my pile of books to throw away but our one customer who was going to use ruby on rails, didn't.
Still very much a thing but a poor second to Python in popularity these days. It's a lovely language - the only language I've ever encountered where I feel I'm working with it rather than fighting against it.
(I'm not a fan of Rails, though... far too much magick. Whenever you encounter someone who's had a bad experience with Ruby it's inevitably a Rails thing.)
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
What impresses me was this random guy knew what nondoms were, and c ould instantly name an admittedly prominent example of the species.
I'd assume it a case of being able to know that non-doms are some dodgy financial thing that rich people take advantage of, and that's the extent of their knowledge on the subject.
It's usually enough. There are probably schemes that exist which are good in theory, this may be one of them for all I know, but you won't normally go that wrong in assuming the system is set up to help rich people keep more of their money than poor people can afford to do.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
Did you have to walk intoi Taunton? They used to have a bus stop outside the station for the Levels towns such as Glastonbury, but inexplicably scrapped that some years ago. Acute pain in the fundament.
They have a lovely bus station at the railway station formed from the old Chard Branch bay platform, complete with original canopy. Perfect interchange,.
Unfortunately b***er all stops there and you have to walk a mile into the town centre to get a bus to places like Chard.
Despite both train and bus being operated by first group.
As I said. An outrage that cries out to heaven for venegance (this view may not be entirely impartial).
So I'm going to sit in Greggs and sulk for half an hour.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I never made it through to the end of the System of the World!
I enjoyed it greatly - but I quite like long books. And unlike the futurism stuff, it doesn't really date.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
Don't know Brookmyre, will have to look him up. Haven't read any Stephenson for ages, either. Funny how some quotes stay with you though.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
Glasto is great. You’ve clearly never been. I have a number of times and your ignorance on the subject does you no credit.
I’ve been there in heavy rain and mud and it’s tough going. Don’t be so flaming nasty. That’s emblematic of why your Party is about to get dropped into the equivalent of one of the infamous Glastonbury toilets: because you became The Nasty Party again. No care for the people of this country and what they like.
But I hope you get back okay. Maybe don’t come back that way on Sunday evening or Monday.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
How many here (other than perhaps DuraAce) have heard Seventeen ?
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I never made it through to the end of the System of the World!
It can be a bit of a chore. I feel like it was worth reading once, but as Phil says there's not three books worth of stuff.
I feel that way about A Requiem for Homo Sapiens as well.
Honestly one of the best book series I've read in recent years (3 books in at least) was Harry Turtledove's Darkness series, basically a fantasy series WW2. Very different to anything else I'd seen in the genre, and very well done.
Ooh. Don't know this author. Three Miles Down sounds right up my street...
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
I think the problem is most, nay, all, people will not have a view or handle on all the evidence, they will not agree or understand on the significance of all that evidence that they are aware of, so even the more evidence based assertions are, outside of extreme academic circles, ultimately advanced gut feelings to some degree.
So I'm sympathetic to people taking a simple feeling about things when predicting, so long as they can explain why they think such evidence they are aware of is wrong or not a significant as other factors.
Personally I think the evidence we do have is Tories are looking at sub 100, but I'm prepared to believe if things go well it could rise to 150.
Anything above that and I'll have extreme egg on my face.
As I've pointed out here before I seriously don't know the result. I know that Labour will win and have a majority but it may be 50 or 250.
Equally the Tories may have 20 seats or 170 - it's going to be on the tightest of margins and very much based on how many people go out and vote Tory on the day.
And yes it's a stupidly broad ranged but it's down to efficiency of voting and Labour / anti-Tory votes are obvious. will right wing voters turn up and vote Tory or will they vote Reform or will they simply sit at home. I don't know and I don't think anyone else knows either.
I'm still expecting Tories sub-100 and Lab pushing 500, even with Lab with a lower vote share than Corbyn 2017. But I am now getting a nagging feeling that there may be quite a lot of swingback to come as people weigh up the awfulness of the Tories against the awfulness of the alternatives they were considering and possibly decide to stick with what they know. I'll be genuinely surprised at Tories anywhere over 150 though.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I find that after a Diamond Age - the one thing Neal Stephenson needed was a decent editor - but he got to the point as with JK Rowling where the editor can't say - can you make it 100,000 words shorter...
I wouldn't want cryptonomicon any shorter. Or Anathem.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
How many here (other than perhaps DuraAce) have heard Seventeen ?
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
I've been to Glastonbury twice - 1997 and 1998. 1997 was the muddiest year for a generation. 1998 was the wettest since 1997.
I didn't go after that. And there was always an element of me praying for rain to justify my decision.
That said, I don't really get Glastonbury any more. And I know I'm in my late 40s now and shouldn't get it. But I do get it. The acts there have aged faster than I have. Bloody Elton John and Madonna and the like, watched by balding men called Clive and Nigel from the Cotswolds and South West London, and their wives. It's become the One Show in a field.
Still surprised at Heathener's report that Brexit was welcomed though. You still don't get many pensioners from the Lincolnshire Coast or truck drivers from Essex. Or maybe you do. As I say, I haven't been for 24 years.
Did you see the epic Radiohead set at Glastonbury 1997? The one gig I wished I could travel back in time to watch but I suspect the in-audience experience wasn't as great as history remembers it...
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
I'm slightly sceptical of this. I don't think a voter so confused would so readily be aware that the PM's wife was a non-dom. I think 9 out of 10 people would look at you blankly if you told them.
As I suggested earlier today, it's probably a story TSE made up for gullible journalists.
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
Feelings can be helpful. They can also betray you. It’s trying to sort them out into the right camps that’s the tricky part.
The other thing to say is that precedent is not always a bad thing to rely on. Much has been written here about how maybe too much reliance is being placed on the fact that some of the forecast results are just so bonkers off-the-charts that they simply can’t happen. I agree with the sentiment, but it is good to remind ourselves from time to time that (a) polls can be wrong and (b) it is hard to model for elections that are producing these kinds of swings and change in sentiment. You only need look at the variance in the polls to see that at the moment (unless we get some rapid herding next week) someone is going to be professionally embarrassed.
So, I have a feeling that the gap between Labour and the Tories is going to be a little closer than suggested when the actual vote comes around. And from a seat perspective, I think they’ll cling on in at least 100, perhaps even get up to a 1997 seat count though I think that’s at the very top end of my expectations. But I have been revising my view downward all campaign. I could change my mind.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
There’s also the inverse, about which we’ll hear nothing.
Friend/customer of mine out here, hedge fund manager, likely earns $10m or thereabouts, every year looks at possibly relocating somewhere else. Recently went to London and was shocked at the crime. Add that to taxes going up under Labour, and he’s staying in the sandpit for another few years.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
Last time I was in France about a year ago I thought I'd got away without any rude occurrences, but on the final day, in Lille, I got shouted at by a man in the street for no apparent reason when he realised I was English.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
Glasto is great. You’ve clearly never been. I have a number of times and your ignorance on the subject does you no credit.
I’ve been there in heavy rain and mud and it’s tough going. Don’t be so flaming nasty. That’s emblematic of why your Party is about to get dropped into the equivalent of one of the infamous Glastonbury toilets: because you became The Nasty Party again. No care for the people of this country and what they like.
But I hope you get back okay. Maybe don’t come back that way on Sunday evening or Monday.
Both of my visits were in very wet years. I have never seen it in the dry! I have been to other festivals and enjoyed them much more because getting around the huge site of Glastonbury in the mud is exhausting (and time-consuming). But, in the sunshine, I'm sure it is wonderful fun.
MrEd/MisterBefordshire is simply jealous. His weirdo, angry persona is that of a leather-gloved reactionary who has Never Been Young.
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Looking at the data tables for this (available from here), the raw numbers are: LAB 160 LDM 64 CON 130 GRN 20 RFM 26
So there's some hefty weighting going on to arrive at the percentages above. Can anybody who understands these things take a look at the supplementary questions asked, and work out what has motivated the weighting? (It's not just "likelihood to vote" - I looked at that myself.)
No, not really and I'm not sure where you are seeing those figures.
The interesting tables are 13, 14 and 15. 13 is the baseline so all those sampled and it comes out Lab 95, LD 95, Con 93. Table 14 then looks at the likely voters and has LD 94, Lab 92, Con 89 with 11% Don't Knows who would be critical. Table 15 strips out the Don't Knows and Won't Voters to supply the percentages but the top three are the same as in table 13.
Conclusion - the LDs are very slightly more likely to vote than Labour or the Conservatives but the 11% DKs will be critical.
The notional swing from Conservative to Labour is 18.5% and from Conservative to Liberal Democrat of 13.5%. It's the 177th most marginal Conservative seat.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
I've been to Glastonbury twice - 1997 and 1998. 1997 was the muddiest year for a generation. 1998 was the wettest since 1997.
I didn't go after that. And there was always an element of me praying for rain to justify my decision.
That said, I don't really get Glastonbury any more. And I know I'm in my late 40s now and shouldn't get it. But I do get it. The acts there have aged faster than I have. Bloody Elton John and Madonna and the like, watched by balding men called Clive and Nigel from the Cotswolds and South West London, and their wives. It's become the One Show in a field.
Still surprised at Heathener's report that Brexit was welcomed though. You still don't get many pensioners from the Lincolnshire Coast or truck drivers from Essex. Or maybe you do. As I say, I haven't been for 24 years.
I went in 1992. It didn't rain a drop. In fact, IIRC, they started to run out of water at one point.
Perhaps understandably, there’s not much chat on here about the French elections.
As it stands, Le Pen’s mob (RN) are close to getting an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
If they DON’T get an absolute majority, which I still suspect is the most likely outcome, then we can expect some fragile minority coalition of Macron’s party and the rump centre-right.
But if they DO get a majority, not only are the promising to do a Truss (ie ballooning the deficit), they are also promising a complete about-turn in the French position on Ukraine. Le Pen has reminded voters that it is the PM not the President that controls the military budget, and Bardella has signalled that France wouldn’t supply Ukraine with long-range missiles. Several RN candidates have proven financial links with Moscow.
This election is a major European event, with significant implications for the UK.
If RN don't get a majority then Melenchon's leftist block would likely be second on seats, just ahead of the combined Macron and centre right blocks.
So none of them would have a majority but Macron would likely still appoint the RN leader PM
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
I've been to Glastonbury twice - 1997 and 1998. 1997 was the muddiest year for a generation. 1998 was the wettest since 1997.
I didn't go after that. And there was always an element of me praying for rain to justify my decision.
That said, I don't really get Glastonbury any more. And I know I'm in my late 40s now and shouldn't get it. But I do get it. The acts there have aged faster than I have. Bloody Elton John and Madonna and the like, watched by balding men called Clive and Nigel from the Cotswolds and South West London, and their wives. It's become the One Show in a field.
Still surprised at Heathener's report that Brexit was welcomed though. You still don't get many pensioners from the Lincolnshire Coast or truck drivers from Essex. Or maybe you do. As I say, I haven't been for 24 years.
Surely you haven't been for 26 years, unless this is a whole new breed of counting that we haven't yet covered here on Counting.com ?
P.S. I also went in 1997. Massive Attack were good on the Jazz Stage on the Friday afternoon.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
How many here (other than perhaps DuraAce) have heard Seventeen ?
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
If its accurate the Tories may hold seats like Witney, Tunbridge Wells, Chelsea and Fulham, Surrey Heath, Chelmsford and Wokingham and Chippenham which are in the latter part of the LD target list merely because the rise in the Labour vote is bigger than the rise in the LD vote. Similar happened in 1997 where the LDs got a lower swing to them than Labour in Tory held seats
Uncrossover with Redfield Labour leads the Conservatives by 23%.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (26-27 June):
Labour 42% (–) Conservative 19% (+1) Reform UK 18% (-1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 5% (-1) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 21-24 June
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
So now the Tories are ahead of Reform with virtually every pollster, Farage has blown his chance
Blown his chance at what? Eclipsing the Tory vote share? Maybe, but will that really matter in the grand scheme of things. 19% Tory share 21 behind Labour would not lead to a vastly different outcome if the Reform/Tory vote was reversed. Or even if Reform was on, say, 12 instead.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
Not as naughty as GWR letting 20 minutes late stopping trains to Paignton full of them out of the Westbury Station in front of a Crack Penzance Express speeding round the Westbury Avoiding line which then has to sit behind it at Castle Cary while they all get out at the pace of Brian the snail, no doubt addled with pot.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
Oh come come. I use both routes regularly (Castle Cary and Honiton) and I’ve been on trains many times before, during, and after the festival. As well as going to the Festival several times myself. The Glasto trains are usually packed so they have to get festival goers off safely especially given that CC is a small station.
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
I'm just p***ed off at missing my bus and being stuck in Taunton for an hour waiting for a bus.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
Glasto is great. You’ve clearly never been. I have a number of times and your ignorance on the subject does you no credit.
I’ve been there in heavy rain and mud and it’s tough going. Don’t be so flaming nasty. That’s emblematic of why your Party is about to get dropped into the equivalent of one of the infamous Glastonbury toilets: because you became The Nasty Party again. No care for the people of this country and what they like.
But I hope you get back okay. Maybe don’t come back that way on Sunday evening or Monday.
Music for people who dislike music. Open air means shit acoustics. Trudging about in mud is miserable. Going Ooh look at us eccentric English in our wellies what are we like doesn't make it not miserable.
The betting markets on election night could be quite volatile if the exit poll puts Labour materially below their polling figures. They could get 33-4% of the vote but still win a huge majority.
Only if Redfield is right and the Tories get 19% and Reform 18%.
If however JL Partners is right and the Tories are back up to 25%, then 33-34% for Labour could mean a hung parliament
Perhaps understandably, there’s not much chat on here about the French elections.
As it stands, Le Pen’s mob (RN) are close to getting an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
If they DON’T get an absolute majority, which I still suspect is the most likely outcome, then we can expect some fragile minority coalition of Macron’s party and the rump centre-right.
But if they DO get a majority, not only are the promising to do a Truss (ie ballooning the deficit), they are also promising a complete about-turn in the French position on Ukraine. Le Pen has reminded voters that it is the PM not the President that controls the military budget, and Bardella has signalled that France wouldn’t supply Ukraine with long-range missiles. Several RN candidates have proven financial links with Moscow.
This election is a major European event, with significant implications for the UK.
The RN are also promising a u-turn on France's policy towards recognising the state of Palestine, which will put them in conflict with Starmer's Labour.
. . . in case you missed this story from the Great White North . . .
CBC News - Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result Stunning result raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future
Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, a stunning result that raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future.
Stewart's victory is shocking because the seat has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years — even through the party's past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.
Before Monday's vote, a Conservative candidate hadn't been competitive in Toronto–St. Paul's since the 1980s. The party hadn't won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election. . . .
. . . Stewart, a consultant, claimed victory with about 42 per cent of the vote against Church, a former Parliament Hill staffer and lawyer, who took roughly 40 per cent of the ballots cast.
The Liberals' poor showing in a stronghold like this could prompt some soul-searching for Trudeau, who has seen his popularity plummet as inflation, the cost of living crisis, high home prices and surging immigration levels drive voter discontent.
This Conservative upset is likely to lead to some anxiety in the Liberal caucus because such a dramatic vote swing could put other supposedly "safe" seats in play for the Conservatives in the next general election. . . .
The betting markets on election night could be quite volatile if the exit poll puts Labour materially below their polling figures. They could get 33-4% of the vote but still win a huge majority.
Only if Redfield is right and the Tories get 19% and Reform 18%.
If however JL Partners is right and the Tories are back up to 25%, then 33-34% for Labour could mean a hung parliament
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
There’s also the inverse, about which we’ll hear nothing.
Friend/customer of mine out here, hedge fund manager, likely earns $10m or thereabouts, every year looks at possibly relocating somewhere else. Recently went to London and was shocked at the crime. Add that to taxes going up under Labour, and he’s staying in the sandpit for another few years.
Your anecdote is backed up with the video I linked down below. Rise in rich people leaving UK, fall in rich people relocating to UK.
. . . in case you missed this story from the Great White North . . .
CBC News - Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result Stunning result raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future
Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, a stunning result that raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future.
Stewart's victory is shocking because the seat has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years — even through the party's past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.
Before Monday's vote, a Conservative candidate hadn't been competitive in Toronto–St. Paul's since the 1980s. The party hadn't won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election. . . .
. . . Stewart, a consultant, claimed victory with about 42 per cent of the vote against Church, a former Parliament Hill staffer and lawyer, who took roughly 40 per cent of the ballots cast.
The Liberals' poor showing in a stronghold like this could prompt some soul-searching for Trudeau, who has seen his popularity plummet as inflation, the cost of living crisis, high home prices and surging immigration levels drive voter discontent.
This Conservative upset is likely to lead to some anxiety in the Liberal caucus because such a dramatic vote swing could put other supposedly "safe" seats in play for the Conservatives in the next general election. . . .
The betting markets on election night could be quite volatile if the exit poll puts Labour materially below their polling figures. They could get 33-4% of the vote but still win a huge majority.
Only if Redfield is right and the Tories get 19% and Reform 18%.
If however JL Partners is right and the Tories are back up to 25%, then 33-34% for Labour could mean a hung parliament
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Looking at the data tables for this (available from here), the raw numbers are: LAB 160 LDM 64 CON 130 GRN 20 RFM 26
So there's some hefty weighting going on to arrive at the percentages above. Can anybody who understands these things take a look at the supplementary questions asked, and work out what has motivated the weighting? (It's not just "likelihood to vote" - I looked at that myself.)
No, not really and I'm not sure where you are seeing those figures.
The interesting tables are 13, 14 and 15. 13 is the baseline so all those sampled and it comes out Lab 95, LD 95, Con 93.
But in table 13, 95/95/93 is the weighted base - the unweighted figures are 160/64/130. My question is, on what criteria has the weighting been done ie if they only found 64 people actually saying they would vote LD, what caused them to up-weight that number (and down-weight the others)?
Comments
In fact, she's tacked so far to the center, that Zemmour has appeared off her right flank as she's no longer able to attract the hard core anti-semites.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/confused-voter-says-wont-vote-33118960
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
“‘We’re taxing non-doms, not condoms,’ I said. ‘Oh,’ he said. ‘Like the prime minister’s wife? Ah.’ He calls out: ‘Margaret: they’re taxing non-doms, not condoms.’”
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/27/were-taxing-non-doms-not-condoms-labour-strives-to-reconnect-with-disengaged-voters
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
Labour leads the Conservatives by 23%.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (26-27 June):
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 19% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 21-24 June
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
45% of capital gains taxes are raised on disposals of greater than £5m, so leaving to avoid the difference in a 20% rate (fairly average) vs a 45% rate (one of the highest in the world) makes sense to almost half the tax base currently paying the tax. 20% of £5m is £1m, but 45% of it is £2.25m, and there are places round the world you can pay 0%. Heck, you can pay 0% on the Isle of Man if you're really determined. But Dubai etc will welcome you with open arms.
While there's been no research done on 20% -> 45% HMRC's own forecasts have suggested that a 10% raise in the higher rate (28%) would be net negative to the treasury by £1.1bn in 2025-2026 and negative £2.1bn the year after.
For these reasons I hope Rachel Reeves will be sensible and avoid the calls from within her own party to tax CGT as income. However I suspect with a supermajority, the clarion call to bash the rich will be too great to resist. It will end up harming both the country, and the economy.
Which cries out to heaven for venegance. Outrage Outrage Outrage.
I feel that way about A Requiem for Homo Sapiens as well.
Honestly one of the best book series I've read in recent years (3 books in at least) was Harry Turtledove's Darkness series, basically a fantasy series WW2. Very different to anything else I'd seen in the genre, and very well done.
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-keir-starmer-says-there-is-no-evidence-private-schools-will-have-to-close-due-to-labours-plans-13160025
And I wouldn’t take pot into the festival these days even if I still did it (which I don’t). Or at least I’d think very carefully about it. Sniffer dogs everywhere.
If you really disliked the delay you surely knew months ago about the Festival and could have adjusted your timings or route?
And ask zimbabwe what it is like having North Korean Army trained military let loose among you.
LAB 160
LDM 64
CON 130
GRN 20
RFM 26
So there's some hefty weighting going on to arrive at the percentages above. Can anybody who understands these things take a look at the supplementary questions asked, and work out what has motivated the weighting? (It's not just "likelihood to vote" - I looked at that myself.)
In particular you lose the RPI annual increases if you emigrate to a sizable chunk of the world, which makes the downside risk of a £ devaluation during your retired future exceptionally painful.
So channeling my inner Leon.
And praying for epic, biblical, levels flooding rain.it's the only language they understand.
Summer music festivals are a significant drain on productivity with the massive traffic congestion they cause. Mind you, so are Highways England with their long overrunning "improvement" schemes such as M6 J23-26.
So I'm sympathetic to people taking a simple feeling about things when predicting, so long as they can explain why they think such evidence they are aware of is wrong or not a significant as other factors.
Personally I think the evidence we do have is Tories are looking at sub 100, but I'm prepared to believe if things go well it could rise to 150.
Anything above that and I'll have extreme egg on my face.
The Bond-style heist on the Royal Mint was a highlight. But not worth wading through all the rest for.
HR: Oh, you're "that guy".
Gilfoyle: What "guy" exactly?
HR: The brooding, arrogant guy who refuses to take orders? Self-taught coder who looks down on anyone who's taken a class. You're probably an atheist or something more contrarian. You claim to be an anarcho-capitalist, but you work here and pay taxes. You've probably read half of Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon, and it's about 50/50 whether you own a snake.
It was two, possibly three languages ago and I don't own a snake. The Diamond Age is better.
There's a quote from once-fashionable polling guru Nate Silver: When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction.
In his book 'Reamde' I never made it past page 300 even though the set-up was brilliant.
Equally the Tories may have 20 seats or 170 - it's going to be on the tightest of margins and very much based on how many people go out and vote Tory on the day.
And yes it's a stupidly broad ranged but it's down to efficiency of voting and Labour / anti-Tory votes are obvious. will right wing voters turn up and vote Tory or will they vote Reform or will they simply sit at home. I don't know and I don't think anyone else knows either.
2095?
It's too late anyway to be clever about this. You have to bugger off and be resident abroad and *then* sell your asset, and anyone now resident in the UK is resident here till next April cos da man at da revenue doesn't recognise part years. So even if there's no budget till autumn that doesn't really help
1997 was the muddiest year for a generation.
1998 was the wettest since 1997.
I didn't go after that. And there was always an element of me praying for rain to justify my decision.
That said, I don't really get Glastonbury any more.
And I know I'm in my late 40s now and shouldn't get it. But I do get it. The acts there have aged faster than I have. Bloody Elton John and Madonna and the like, watched by balding men called Clive and Nigel from the Cotswolds and South West London, and their wives. It's become the One Show in a field.
Still surprised at Heathener's report that Brexit was welcomed though. You still don't get many pensioners from the Lincolnshire Coast or truck drivers from Essex. Or maybe you do. As I say, I haven't been for 24 years.
(I'm not a fan of Rails, though... far too much magick. Whenever you encounter someone who's had a bad experience with Ruby it's inevitably a Rails thing.)
It's usually enough. There are probably schemes that exist which are good in theory, this may be one of them for all I know, but you won't normally go that wrong in assuming the system is set up to help rich people keep more of their money than poor people can afford to do.
Unfortunately b***er all stops there and you have to walk a mile into the town centre to get a bus to places like Chard.
Despite both train and bus being operated by first group.
As I said. An outrage that cries out to heaven for venegance (this view may not be entirely impartial).
So I'm going to sit in Greggs and sulk for half an hour.
And unlike the futurism stuff, it doesn't really date.
You Gov:
Lib Dem 33
Con 29
Reform 17
Labour 17
Electoral Calculus:
Lib Dem 42
Con 22
Reform 15
Labour 14
Perhaps "We Think" have not thought enough!!
Somebody will have egg on their face.
I’ve been there in heavy rain and mud and it’s tough going. Don’t be so flaming nasty. That’s emblematic of why your Party is about to get dropped into the equivalent of one of the infamous Glastonbury toilets: because you became The Nasty Party again. No care for the people of this country and what they like.
But I hope you get back okay. Maybe don’t come back that way on Sunday evening or Monday.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/article/2024/jun/26/seventeen-who-are-the-first-k-pop-act-to-appear-on-glastonburys-main-stage
I'll be genuinely surprised at Tories anywhere over 150 though.
I’m so cool
According to
@inglesp
's aggregated predictions, these are the only seats that every major pollster has predicted will stay Tory 👇
(compared to 337 seats which every pollster has predicted Labour to win)
https://x.com/zoenora6/status/1806357397973176360
I agree with @fencesitter2 upthread that the WeThink raw tables are genuinely weird here. I don't know what to make of it.
The other thing to say is that precedent is not always a bad thing to rely on. Much has been written here about how maybe too much reliance is being placed on the fact that some of the forecast results are just so bonkers off-the-charts that they simply can’t happen. I agree with the sentiment, but it is good to remind ourselves from time to time that (a) polls can be wrong and (b) it is hard to model for elections that are producing these kinds of swings and change in sentiment. You only need look at the variance in the polls to see that at the moment (unless we get some rapid herding next week) someone is going to be professionally embarrassed.
So, I have a feeling that the gap between Labour and the Tories is going to be a little closer than suggested when the actual vote comes around. And from a seat perspective, I think they’ll cling on in at least 100, perhaps even get up to a 1997 seat count though I think that’s at the very top end of my expectations. But I have been revising my view downward all campaign. I could change my mind.
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (26-27 June):
Approve: 43% (+2)
Disapprove: 27% (-3)
Net: +16% (+5)
Changes +/- 21-24 June
https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1806364537542582563
SKS goes into the final week actually fairly popular by recent (Labour) leader standards. Another uptick in his approval.
He’s himself seeing something of a Corbyn 2017 effect.
Friend/customer of mine out here, hedge fund manager, likely earns $10m or thereabouts, every year looks at possibly relocating somewhere else. Recently went to London and was shocked at the crime. Add that to taxes going up under Labour, and he’s staying in the sandpit for another few years.
MrEd/MisterBefordshire is simply jealous. His weirdo, angry persona is that of a leather-gloved reactionary who has Never Been Young.
The interesting tables are 13, 14 and 15. 13 is the baseline so all those sampled and it comes out Lab 95, LD 95, Con 93. Table 14 then looks at the likely voters and has LD 94, Lab 92, Con 89 with 11% Don't Knows who would be critical. Table 15 strips out the Don't Knows and Won't Voters to supply the percentages but the top three are the same as in table 13.
Conclusion - the LDs are very slightly more likely to vote than Labour or the Conservatives but the 11% DKs will be critical.
The notional swing from Conservative to Labour is 18.5% and from Conservative to Liberal Democrat of 13.5%. It's the 177th most marginal Conservative seat.
So none of them would have a majority but Macron would likely still appoint the RN leader PM
P.S. I also went in 1997. Massive Attack were good on the Jazz Stage on the Friday afternoon.
MRP projection for Islington North:
⚪️ Corbyn 37% (+37)
🔴 LAB 33% (-31)
🔵 CON 12% (+2)
🟢 GRN 8% (-)
Via
@ElectCalculus
/
@FindoutnowUK
, 14-24 June
Seems I've demostrated the validity of Poe's law again.
If however JL Partners is right and the Tories are back up to 25%, then 33-34% for Labour could mean a hung parliament
CBC News - Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result
Stunning result raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future
Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, a stunning result that raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future.
Stewart's victory is shocking because the seat has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years — even through the party's past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.
Before Monday's vote, a Conservative candidate hadn't been competitive in Toronto–St. Paul's since the 1980s. The party hadn't won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election. . . .
. . . Stewart, a consultant, claimed victory with about 42 per cent of the vote against Church, a former Parliament Hill staffer and lawyer, who took roughly 40 per cent of the ballots cast.
The Liberals' poor showing in a stronghold like this could prompt some soul-searching for Trudeau, who has seen his popularity plummet as inflation, the cost of living crisis, high home prices and surging immigration levels drive voter discontent.
This Conservative upset is likely to lead to some anxiety in the Liberal caucus because such a dramatic vote swing could put other supposedly "safe" seats in play for the Conservatives in the next general election. . . .
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/byelection-polls-liberal-conservative-ballot-vote-1.7243748
The infamy.
Why can't we have properly integrated bus and rail services like they have in enlightened places like Northern Ireland.
What is intriguing me more is the weighting from raw numbers of 160/64/130 to percentages of 31%/31%/30% (LAB/LD/CON).
I've looked harder at the data tables now and I can't see what has caused it. But in table 13, 95/95/93 is the weighted base - the unweighted figures are 160/64/130. My question is, on what criteria has the weighting been done ie if they only found 64 people actually saying they would vote LD, what caused them to up-weight that number (and down-weight the others)?