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This bodes ill for the Tories & Reform – politicalbetting.com
This bodes ill for the Tories & Reform – politicalbetting.com
Latest YouGov party leader favourability ratings (25-26 June)Rishi Sunak: -56Keir Starmer: -20Nigel Farage: -39Ed Davey: -8 (40% "don't know")Carla Denyer: -8 (71% "don't know")Adrian Ramsay: -11 (78% "don't know")https://t.co/YDTxRRR405 pic.twitter.com/0qVtLYR9NP
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"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again
Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny
Allister Heath"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/26/triumphant-labour-will-unleash-worst-demons-of-left/
Today's example is this https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155
Telling people that Labour will ban fire and rehire and zero hour contracts is going to encourage exactly what demographic to vote Tory?
It's even worse than the ULEZ adverts from earlier today given that a lot of people have compliant cars...
The headline offers hope for the growing share of the population that thinks Brexit was a mistake
I don’t think “Britain will never be the same again” is quite the burn he thinks it is
https://x.com/JohnHilson/status/1806245270373433389
Sunak is asked multiple times whether he told his aide Craig Williams about the date of the election before he put a bet on it
The PM refuses to answer - saying he can't comment during 'ongoing investigations'
https://x.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1806297019310309405
The sad thing about it is that there’s been precious little debate on policy and direction and more a series of rather dull and dutiful Labour announcements and the Tories flailing around screaming TAX in everyone’s faces.
I have long since resigned myself to the fact that political discourse in this country is rubbish. But I did expect a little more. Some more interesting policies from Labour. An actual Tory campaign. You know, the basic stuff.
Every day of this campaign brings new joy.
My advice to CR would be to find the company / project you want to work on and then use that as a basis to work out where you will end up..
Great favourability ratings. Gaza. Climate change. Complacent lefties. Maybe a decent vote share?
This election might end up all about the smaller parties. Labour's support might be an inch deep - but support for the left looks solid.
Ed Davey has confirmed that he placed a winning bet on the outcome of the North Shropshire by-election in 2021, but this morning repeatedly refused to tell me how much money he’s made betting on elections. Said he ‘doesn’t think’ more than £1000 but ‘may have made a little bit’
How do you know that they are not the party faithful, journalists, and political nerds?
You mean an era before Austerity where Sure start existed, councils had money for things beyond social care and where I could afford to go out more often?
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
Yeah, ok, you fucking speccy twat, we'll do just that.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
Saying you have a favourable view of the greens is like saying you “prefer clean rivers” and “please don’t chop down lovely trees”. Who has an issue with any of that? Most people aren’t aware the greens are now insane Woke Marxists
By contrast everyone knows Farage is basically Hitler and yet he has 27% favourability? I know PB doesn’t like hearing this but there is a decent possibility Britain will go down the same hard right road as France Holland Sweden and Italy
Obviously it’s a Labour win, but the rest….? Modelling the splits is a challenge to say the least.
Many of us on here bet on politics and some may well have excellent sources of information (I wouldn't know). If that information gives them a better chance I'm struggling to see the problem.
There's a fear (I think) betting moves influence how people vote - if we took that line we'd ban opinion polls.
If I saw Ed Davey or Allister Jack in a betting shop having a bet would it influence my vote? No. If I saw Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer in my local Paddy Power having a bet would it influence my vote? Again, no.
Moral: If you want to cosplay Maggie, you need some of her strength and success. Otherwise, you end up looking silly.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
G-R-A-Y.
Still so bad it could be fake, but the amount of times he said surrender last night ... where the hell has that come from and who on earth thinks that's a good or appropriate way to be speaking.
Sunak is truly the worst possible person who could lead the Tories into this election.
And to be fair his wife rolled his eyes at his attitude and then politely served me
Also I’m a FRIEND OF THE FUCKING MAYOR WHO TOLD ME ABOUT THE U-BOAT so he can fuck off the stupid cheese eating tittywank
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/
It actually plays half-well to the fears of lots of centre-right voters.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1806284826158198795
It reminds me of the campaign when Blair was simultaneously Bambi and Demon Eyes.
You have been warned ...
By 2007 to 2010 that was well out of the question already.
I need to do the bit where I get pissed with Krebs and Burgdorf first.
Still looking forward to that bit 👌
Please provide it, thanks.
xx
...and a lot more people were still watching then.
I thought quite mad doom and gloom was his stock in trade.
Farage is not appearing in any further debates with other leaders, the manifestos have been done and D Day anniversary has been and gone
The current Tory Party geniuses haven't clocked the difference between calling your opposition as craven sand suggesting people you want to get to your side as the kind of people who surrender
Had we kept a small budget surplus as he had in 2002, when the GFC hit we'd have been fine and no need for austerity.
At least with Covid when it hit we'd had 9 years of the deficit coming down as a proportion of GDP, not going up, so we were less exposed than we could have been otherwise.
This is not a Tory talking point, I'm voting Labour next week, but I'm hopeful that Labour learns some lessons from Brown's mistakes. The key to being better is to be reflective and learn lessons from your own mistakes, not pretend you've never made any - and the Labour fans who still insist Brown did nothing wrong give me pause for concern.
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/27/met-police-officer-charged-misconduct-alleged-theft-from-man-who-died
https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/best-ads-50-years-economist-poster-defined-brand-agency/1519024
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
As a parent I think the idea of a kid being posed in a surrender position, let alone the others, is absolutely appalling. Pathetic is too kind of a word for it.
Its the same kind of juvenile crap as sending out an email from Keir Starmer (not really but its what he thinks) and the rest of it.
Certainly not coming across as serious people with a long term economic plan.
You can't "make up" a political message. You have to understand what your audience are *already thinking* and condense that into a memorable phrase that can be repeated. Ideally you avoided evoking adjacent but unhelpful ideas.
Hence the "arms" poster is "okay" (though it lacks pithy memorability, it does have some humour and reflected the general view on Labour defence policy post-Falklands) but the "surrender" one is a total non-starter.
Although everyone takes the piss out of the 97 "demon eyes" poster, it *was* pithy, memorable and played to a residual fear that may have swayed a few Tory deserters. The fact was: it didn't. So it is remembered as a failure.
Keep him off politics.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/27/french-election-poses-risk-to-uk-economy-world-stability/