Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
Presumably inspired by this masterpiece from 1983,
Moral: If you want to cosplay Maggie, you need some of her strength and success. Otherwise, you end up looking silly.
I would suggest that the problem is SPADs knocking these things up in Photoshop and putting them out without understanding the basics of political marketing (which was more or less invented in the 1980s).
You can't "make up" a political message. You have to understand what your audience are *already thinking* and condense that into a memorable phrase that can be repeated. Ideally you avoided evoking adjacent but unhelpful ideas.
Hence the "arms" poster is "okay" (though it lacks pithy memorability, it does have some humour and reflected the general view on Labour defence policy post-Falklands) but the "surrender" one is a total non-starter.
Although everyone takes the piss out of the 97 "demon eyes" poster, it *was* pithy, memorable and played to a residual fear that may have swayed a few Tory deserters. The fact was: it didn't. So it is remembered as a failure.
It won't be SPADs, they advise Ministers, it will be CCHQ interns
Interns now versus professional ad agencies then would certainly explain a lot.
Seems like the whole election campaign is being ran by interns.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
It's as great as the Labour will take you back to 2010 attempt...
You mean an era before Austerity where Sure start existed, councils had money for things beyond social care and where I could afford to go out more often?
However 2010 was like the bit after Christmas. You’ve had the fun (the spending) but the credit card bill hasn’t hit yet. Whoever was in power in 2010 had to face the consequences of the GFC. It wasn’t fair to blame global events on Brown/Labour in 2010, nor is it fair to Blame Sunak/Conservatives for Covid and Ukraine, but theme the breaks.
Yes. Worth remembering for a lot of people 2008-2010 wasn’t plain sailing and felt quite crap. Unemployment up, young people finding it hard to get into work, a sense of a really bad hangover from the night (decade) before.
There’s a reason why people were fed up with Labour in 2010. I was one of them. And I think the coalition did a good job 2010-2015. A pity it all went downhill since then. So while I’m not doubting that the country is in a real state right now, and probably worse overall than it was in 2010, it wasn’t some nirvana either.
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
That one's not too bad, actually.
It actually plays half-well to the fears of lots of centre-right voters.
I think its shocking and disgraceful personally.
As a parent I think the idea of a kid being posed in a surrender position, let alone the others, is absolutely appalling. Pathetic is too kind of a word for it.
Its the same kind of juvenile crap as sending out an email from Keir Starmer (not really but its what he thinks) and the rest of it.
Certainly not coming across as serious people with a long term economic plan.
The Graun was quoting Brendan Cox (spouse of the late Jo Cox MP) on their feed. He is not impressed, either.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Why hasn't he (or she I suppose) been charged with theft as well? I know that it says alleged theft, but if the theft isn't proved then presumably it isn't misconduct either? Or am I misunderstanding something?
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
He should have tried Welsh. Or is he not in Bretagne any more? (Bit hazy about the geography.) A Glaswegian colleague of mine does that in Wales (and much else: he is fluent, if still with the Glasgow overtones, which confuses them ...)
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
I can't imagine why anyone doubtful of Labour would switch their votes to the Conservatives after seeing that poster.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
Presumably inspired by this masterpiece from 1983,
Moral: If you want to cosplay Maggie, you need some of her strength and success. Otherwise, you end up looking silly.
The current Tory Party geniuses haven't clocked the difference between calling your opposition as craven sand suggesting people you want to get to your side as the kind of people who surrender
Is someone trying to rob the people in the poster?
I dunno. It made me think the Tories are suggesting Labour will be lining people up against a wall. To coin a phrase, 'it's not funny and it's not clever'.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
Presumably inspired by this masterpiece from 1983,
Moral: If you want to cosplay Maggie, you need some of her strength and success. Otherwise, you end up looking silly.
I would suggest that the problem is SPADs knocking these things up in Photoshop and putting them out without understanding the basics of political marketing (which was more or less invented in the 1980s).
You can't "make up" a political message. You have to understand what your audience are *already thinking* and condense that into a memorable phrase that can be repeated. Ideally you avoided evoking adjacent but unhelpful ideas.
Hence the "arms" poster is "okay" (though it lacks pithy memorability, it does have some humour and reflected the general view on Labour defence policy post-Falklands) but the "surrender" one is a total non-starter.
Although everyone takes the piss out of the 97 "demon eyes" poster, it *was* pithy, memorable and played to a residual fear that may have swayed a few Tory deserters. The fact was: it didn't. So it is remembered as a failure.
It won't be SPADs, they advise Ministers, it will be CCHQ interns
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
It looks like a hostage situation to be honest.
"Hello? Yes, that's right, I have three hostages in here with me so don't even think of trying something because I swear to God I'll shoot them. I have a list of demands: 1. £10,000,000 IN SMALL DENOMINATION NON-SEQUENTIAL NOTES 2. THE IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF THE POLITICAL PRISONER JACKIE WEAVER AND THE DISSOLUTION OF HANDFORTH PARISH COUNCIL 3. DON'T SURRENDER OUR FUTURE TO LABOUR 4. A 12" THIN-CRUST HAWAIIAN PIZZA"
[Police cut the power and start playing Radiohead on a bank of speakers] [hostage taker shoots himself]
This sounds like the it's a robbery scene in Pulp fiction? Do we have a similar flim taste?
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
It'd be remarkable if that debate swung it - everyone was watching the footy.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
I can't imagine why anyone doubtful of Labour would switch their votes to the Conservatives after seeing that poster.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
Presumably inspired by this masterpiece from 1983,
Moral: If you want to cosplay Maggie, you need some of her strength and success. Otherwise, you end up looking silly.
The current Tory Party geniuses haven't clocked the difference between calling your opposition as craven sand suggesting people you want to get to your side as the kind of people who surrender
Is someone trying to rob the people in the poster?
I dunno. It made me think the Tories are suggesting Labour will be lining people up against a wall. To coin a phrase, 'it's not funny and it's not clever'.
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
That one's not too bad, actually.
It actually plays half-well to the fears of lots of centre-right voters.
I think its shocking and disgraceful personally.
As a parent I think the idea of a kid being posed in a surrender position, let alone the others, is absolutely appalling. Pathetic is too kind of a word for it.
Its the same kind of juvenile crap as sending out an email from Keir Starmer (not really but its what he thinks) and the rest of it.
Certainly not coming across as serious people with a long term economic plan.
The Graun was quoting Brendan Cox (spouse of the late Jo Cox MP) on their feed. He is not impressed, either.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
By the same logic the Greens could get 41% of the vote.
there is a decent possibility Britain will go down the same hard right road as France Holland Sweden and Italy
From the man who brought you ‘Liz Truss is a true star, the diamond in the rough, the one who will sort out Britain and defeat Keir Starmer.’
You have been warned ...
I also warned you about Covid in January 2020 and about lab leak and the necklace and UNMENTIONABLE and Ukraine’s failing counterattack and actual UFO hearings in Congress and Nordstream and and and
Indeed I predicted in about 2009 that if the powers-that-be kept ignoring anger about the EU then it would all blow up very very badly in the end
I’m a good extrapolator. Better than most on here. What I’m not good at is turning that into money and I’m also bad at timings because I extrapolate too fast and over estimate the speed of changes
So Britain will probably be hard right in 2031 not 2028
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
It'd be remarkable if that debate swung it - everyone was watching the footy.
No they weren't, 3 million watched the debate which is the same number who watch Eastenders most nights now on the BBC.
Just 6 million watched the footie which is about the same number who watch Coronation Street now on ITV.
Both Eastenders and Corrie are normally still in the most watched 10 programmes each week though if no major sports event on
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Every member of the force Has a watch and chain ... of course
I still remember the guy doing the visa stamping at Lagos airport. His Rolex had diamonds on the gold on the diamonds. It would have been rejected by Liberace as a bit bling.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
It looks like a hostage situation to be honest.
"Hello? Yes, that's right, I have three hostages in here with me so don't even think of trying something because I swear to God I'll shoot them. I have a list of demands: 1. £10,000,000 IN SMALL DENOMINATION NON-SEQUENTIAL NOTES 2. THE IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF THE POLITICAL PRISONER JACKIE WEAVER AND THE DISSOLUTION OF HANDFORTH PARISH COUNCIL 3. DON'T SURRENDER OUR FUTURE TO LABOUR 4. A 12" THIN-CRUST HAWAIIAN PIZZA"
[Police cut the power and start playing Radiohead on a bank of speakers] [hostage taker shoots himself]
This sounds like the it's a robbery scene in Pulp fiction? Do we have a similar flim taste?
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Why hasn't he (or she I suppose) been charged with theft as well? I know that it says alleged theft, but if the theft isn't proved then presumably it isn't misconduct either? Or am I misunderstanding something?
Misconduct in a public office can carry a much more severe sentence than theft.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
I can't imagine why anyone doubtful of Labour would switch their votes to the Conservatives after seeing that poster.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
Presumably inspired by this masterpiece from 1983,
Moral: If you want to cosplay Maggie, you need some of her strength and success. Otherwise, you end up looking silly.
The current Tory Party geniuses haven't clocked the difference between calling your opposition as craven sand suggesting people you want to get to your side as the kind of people who surrender
Is someone trying to rob the people in the poster?
I dunno. It made me think the Tories are suggesting Labour will be lining people up against a wall. To coin a phrase, 'it's not funny and it's not clever'.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Every member of the force Has a watch and chain ... of course
I still remember the guy doing the visa stamping at Lagos airport. His Rolex had diamonds on the gold on the diamonds. It would have been rejected by Liberace as a bit bling.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Why hasn't he (or she I suppose) been charged with theft as well? I know that it says alleged theft, but if the theft isn't proved then presumably it isn't misconduct either? Or am I misunderstanding something?
Misconduct in a public office can carry a much more severe sentence than theft.
Up to Life.
I considered complaining to the police about the actions of a person related to the campaign I am involved in. I took advice from a prosecuting barrister. They told me what to do, but suggested that to get much action the police/CPS like to see dead bodies e.g. Hillsborough type events.
Those Tory adverts (I don't want to quote as the images will be repeted).... The 80's ad is a soldier seen from infront surendering implies a war situation: not nice but goes with the territory of being a soldier.
The latest ad is a family in everyday clothes photographed from behind. The implication is a 7th October style terrorist attack, and is deeply unsettling.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
I can't imagine why anyone doubtful of Labour would switch their votes to the Conservatives after seeing that poster.
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
PATHETIC!
Presumably inspired by this masterpiece from 1983,
Moral: If you want to cosplay Maggie, you need some of her strength and success. Otherwise, you end up looking silly.
The current Tory Party geniuses haven't clocked the difference between calling your opposition as craven sand suggesting people you want to get to your side as the kind of people who surrender
Is someone trying to rob the people in the poster?
I dunno. It made me think the Tories are suggesting Labour will be lining people up against a wall. To coin a phrase, 'it's not funny and it's not clever'.
Even so, I din't think it's going to persuade DuraAce to vote for them.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
It's a wacky place. The rudeness is actually getting better. I think it is a performance in a number of places now - the tourists expect it.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
Hopecasting is an excellent word! We have all been caught out by it at various times. Over the last few weeks I have seen quite a few on PB hoping that the actual votes cast won't be as bad as the polls suggest.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
Even for the French.
I worked for a French company for 18 years and used to teach in Paris. Whenever I meet French vistors to the UK and conversation gets round to the fact I used to work in France they always ask where. When I say Paris the answer is always the same. Paris is not France. If we think there is a lot of dislike directed at London by the rest of the UK, it is nothing compared to how much the French regions hate Paris and the Parisians.
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
It's as great as the Labour will take you back to 2010 attempt...
You mean an era before Austerity where Sure start existed, councils had money for things beyond social care and where I could afford to go out more often?
However 2010 was like the bit after Christmas. You’ve had the fun (the spending) but the credit card bill hasn’t hit yet. Whoever was in power in 2010 had to face the consequences of the GFC. It wasn’t fair to blame global events on Brown/Labour in 2010, nor is it fair to Blame Sunak/Conservatives for Covid and Ukraine, but theme the breaks.
Yes. Worth remembering for a lot of people 2008-2010 wasn’t plain sailing and felt quite crap. Unemployment up, young people finding it hard to get into work, a sense of a really bad hangover from the night (decade) before.
There’s a reason why people were fed up with Labour in 2010. I was one of them. And I think the coalition did a good job 2010-2015. A pity it all went downhill since then. So while I’m not doubting that the country is in a real state right now, and probably worse overall than it was in 2010, it wasn’t some nirvana either.
The govt of 2010 - 2015 did well and it felt like good govt. It was also the last time I voted Conservative.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
By the same logic the Greens could get 41% of the vote.
Nah
Saying you have a favourable view of the greens is like saying you “prefer clean rivers” and “please don’t chop down lovely trees”. Who has an issue with any of that? Most people aren’t aware the greens are now insane Woke Marxists
By contrast everyone knows Farage is basically Hitler and yet he has 27% favourability? I know PB doesn’t like hearing this but there is a decent possibility Britain will go down the same hard right road as France Holland Sweden and Italy
Looking forward to Insane Woke Marxist’s slot on the Glade stage on Saturday. Just before Fatboy Slim.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
By the same logic the Greens could get 41% of the vote.
Nah
Saying you have a favourable view of the greens is like saying you “prefer clean rivers” and “please don’t chop down lovely trees”. Who has an issue with any of that? Most people aren’t aware the greens are now insane Woke Marxists
By contrast everyone knows Farage is basically Hitler and yet he has 27% favourability? I know PB doesn’t like hearing this but there is a decent possibility Britain will go down the same hard right road as France Holland Sweden and Italy
It's a fear for sure. 27% though - even FPTP would make it hard to win power on that.
Edit: And this is why it's much better to give RFM a few dozen seats with STV when they are on 10-15% of the vote, then to potentially let FPTP give them the keys to Number 10 on barely a quarter of the vote.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
It's a wacky place. The rudeness is actually getting better. I think it is a performance in a number of places now - the tourists expect it.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
Yes. Things like that happen there. The place is pleasant and the people are quirky at best.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
It'd be remarkable if that debate swung it - everyone was watching the footy.
No they weren't, 3 million watched the debate which is the same number who watch Eastenders most nights now on the BBC.
Just 6 million watched the footie which is about the same number who watch Coronation Street now on ITV.
Both Eastenders and Corrie are normally still in the most watched 10 programmes each week though if no major sports event on
Remember the start of June where everyone thought Sunak’s decent debate performance would help mitigate Tory losses?
He did alright yesterday but I think it won’t be any different this time. People have made their minds up.
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
Having read his article, it reads like the impending wipeout is being done to the Conservatives. Heath fails to realise that whatever happens will be because of the Conservatives total inability to govern.
They have done this to themselves. People are not voting for Starmer. This is an Augean Stable clearout
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
Even for the French.
I worked for a French company for 18 years and used to teach in Paris. Whenever I meet French vistors to the UK and conversation gets round to the fact I used to work in France they always ask where. When I say Paris the answer is always the same. Paris is not France. If we think there is a lot of dislike directed at London by the rest of the UK, it is nothing compared to how much the French regions hate Paris and the Parisians.
I completely agree with that. I have been told by the French up and down the country that they are not fans of Parisians. Nice place though!
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
Labour will be in power on July 5th Le Pen will be taking over on July 15th after the second round.
We then have the olympics from the 26th which means I think Paris is going to be on holiday from the 15th / 22nd rather than the traditional August off.
A Metropolitan police officer has been charged with misconduct in public office over the alleged theft of money from a man who died after collapsing, the force has said.
Why hasn't he (or she I suppose) been charged with theft as well? I know that it says alleged theft, but if the theft isn't proved then presumably it isn't misconduct either? Or am I misunderstanding something?
Misconduct in a public office can carry a much more severe sentence than theft.
Up to Life.
I considered complaining to the police about the actions of a person related to the campaign I am involved in. I took advice from a prosecuting barrister. They told me what to do, but suggested that to get much action the police/CPS like to see dead bodies e.g. Hillsborough type events.
A friend had a watch stolen...
He was walking home from working in a pub. A car came round a corner to fast and knocked down.
A policeman came along a bit later and found a long hair youth, moaning in the gutter. Smelling of the beer from the pub. So he did the obvious. Kicked him a few times, then arrested him for drunk and disorderly.
The fly in the ointment was that the bank up the road had installed CCTV (a bit new then). Which showed the entire sequence of events.
Because the technology was new, it was actually a bit overspec'd - the resolution was sharp enough to show the watch on his wrist as he was hauled away, semi-conscious in the police van. Not recorded when they brought him to the station....
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
By the same logic the Greens could get 41% of the vote.
Nah
Saying you have a favourable view of the greens is like saying you “prefer clean rivers” and “please don’t chop down lovely trees”. Who has an issue with any of that? Most people aren’t aware the greens are now insane Woke Marxists
By contrast everyone knows Farage is basically Hitler and yet he has 27% favourability? I know PB doesn’t like hearing this but there is a decent possibility Britain will go down the same hard right road as France Holland Sweden and Italy
It's a fear for sure. 27% though - even FPTP would make it hard to win power on that.
Edit: And this is why it's much better to give RFM a few dozen seats with STV when they are on 10-15% of the vote, then to potentially let FPTP give them the keys to Number 10 on barely a quarter of the vote.
Good to see my heavily odds on Labour bet still in the Lab Gain from Con in amongst that lot.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
Even for the French.
I worked for a French company for 18 years and used to teach in Paris. Whenever I meet French vistors to the UK and conversation gets round to the fact I used to work in France they always ask where. When I say Paris the answer is always the same. Paris is not France. If we think there is a lot of dislike directed at London by the rest of the UK, it is nothing compared to how much the French regions hate Paris and the Parisians.
C’est vrait
This hatred of Paris is one driver of Le Pen’s support
I think this is a further casus belli. Starmer's first act PM should be to declare war on France.
Le Pen threatens Britain’s economy, Bank of England warns
Global financial stability at risk from looming elections around world, officials fear
The looming French election poses a threat to global financial stability and the British economy, the Bank of England has warned.
Officials at Threadneedle Street warned of potential market turmoil after president Emmanuel Macron called a snap poll that could hand a majority to Marine Le Pen’s anti-migration National Rally party.
Ms Le Pen favours increased borrowing, meaning a victory would risk driving up France’s already high debt levels.
The report focuses on worst-case scenarios, and markets may not react as violently as some analysts fear. Bank of England officials did not refer to Ms Le Pen directly, and stressed that there are risks across much of the world in a year of widespread general elections.
Alternatively the forthcoming election and the parlous state of the paper has turned a once sensible journal into a schizophrenic peddler of nonsense.
I got the briefieng directly from the BoE.
It sounds as if the BoE would prefer there not to be widespread general elections. Next up the CBI on the case for 30 year parliaments because Business Hates Uncertainty.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
It's a wacky place. The rudeness is actually getting better. I think it is a performance in a number of places now - the tourists expect it.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
Yes. Things like that happen there. The place is pleasant and the people are quirky at best.
A London version.
I was walking home, by Tower Bridge, about 1am. Nearly no-one about.
A couple were walking on the other side of the road near the old Royal Mint building.
An unmarked van zoomed up, x armed police boiled out. Full regalia. Had the couple zipped tied and face down in seconds. Lots of shouting. After few seconds, the police boiled back into their van. Last moment cut the zip ties and put the couple back on their feet. Then zoomed off.
The whole thing lasted maybe 30 seconds. The couple looked utterly bewildered. My flatmate and I checked with each other that we had just seen what we had seen.
Those Tory adverts (I don't want to quote as the images will be repeted).... The 80's ad is a soldier seen from infront surendering implies a war situation: not nice but goes with the territory of being a soldier.
The latest ad is a family in everyday clothes photographed from behind. The implication is a 7th October style terrorist attack, and is deeply unsettling.
The old Saatchi ads were effective - and made more sense; arms/arms meaning etc. plus it had a specificity that played into people's worries about what a Labour government would do.
TBH the whole 'surrender' word use is odd; it's obviously come from some focus group or other as effective, but it feels shoehorned and weird. I don't know why they aren't just hammering tax, tax, tax at this point. It's specific and it's a stereotypical floating voter concern about Labour.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
It's a wacky place. The rudeness is actually getting better. I think it is a performance in a number of places now - the tourists expect it.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
Yes. Things like that happen there. The place is pleasant and the people are quirky at best.
A London version.
I was walking home, by Tower Bridge, about 1am. Nearly no-one about.
A couple were walking on the other side of the road near the old Royal Mint building.
An unmarked van zoomed up, x armed police boiled out. Full regalia. Had the couple zipped tied and face down in seconds. Lots of shouting. After few seconds, the police boiled back into their van. Last moment cut the zip ties and put the couple back on their feet. Then zoomed off.
The whole thing lasted maybe 30 seconds. The couple looked utterly bewildered. My flatmate and I checked with each other that we had just seen what we had seen.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
Even for the French.
I worked for a French company for 18 years and used to teach in Paris. Whenever I meet French vistors to the UK and conversation gets round to the fact I used to work in France they always ask where. When I say Paris the answer is always the same. Paris is not France. If we think there is a lot of dislike directed at London by the rest of the UK, it is nothing compared to how much the French regions hate Paris and the Parisians.
C’est vrait
This hatred of Paris is one driver of Le Pen’s support
Those Tory adverts (I don't want to quote as the images will be repeted).... The 80's ad is a soldier seen from infront surendering implies a war situation: not nice but goes with the territory of being a soldier.
The latest ad is a family in everyday clothes photographed from behind. The implication is a 7th October style terrorist attack, and is deeply unsettling.
The old Saatchi ads were effective - and made more sense; arms/arms meaning etc. plus it had a specificity that played into people's worries about what a Labour government would do.
TBH the whole 'surrender' word use is odd; it's obviously come from some focus group or other as effective, but it feels shoehorned and weird. I don't know why they aren't just hammering tax, tax, tax at this point. It's specific and it's a stereotypical floating voter concern about Labour.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
The point is you want us to be soft and cuddly with a nasty party of racists and bigots and Putin apologists, that somehow found many quite literal fascists as candidates, rather than call them what they are - extremists.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
Having read his article, it reads like the impending wipeout is being done to the Conservatives. Heath fails to realise that whatever happens will be because of the Conservatives total inability to govern.
They have done this to themselves. People are not voting for Starmer. This is an Augean Stable clearout
I agree. It's even slightly heart warming to see the progressive forces getting together to make sure that the really nasty forces of Suella Patel Mogg Johnson Truss Sunak and are not only soundly beaten but mauled.
Let's put them all on a flight to Rwanda without any chance of being allowed back to the UK as was their wish for others
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
It's a wacky place. The rudeness is actually getting better. I think it is a performance in a number of places now - the tourists expect it.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
Yes. Things like that happen there. The place is pleasant and the people are quirky at best.
A London version.
I was walking home, by Tower Bridge, about 1am. Nearly no-one about.
A couple were walking on the other side of the road near the old Royal Mint building.
An unmarked van zoomed up, x armed police boiled out. Full regalia. Had the couple zipped tied and face down in seconds. Lots of shouting. After few seconds, the police boiled back into their van. Last moment cut the zip ties and put the couple back on their feet. Then zoomed off.
The whole thing lasted maybe 30 seconds. The couple looked utterly bewildered. My flatmate and I checked with each other that we had just seen what we had seen.
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
Having read his article, it reads like the impending wipeout is being done to the Conservatives. Heath fails to realise that whatever happens will be because of the Conservatives total inability to govern.
They have done this to themselves. People are not voting for Starmer. This is an Augean Stable clearout
I agree. It's even slightly heart warming to see the progressive forces getting together to make sure that the really nasty forces of Suella Patel Mogg Johnson Truss Sunak and are not only soundly beaten but mauled.
Let's put them all on a flight to Rwanda without any chance of being allowed back to the UK as was their wish for others
Those Tory adverts (I don't want to quote as the images will be repeted).... The 80's ad is a soldier seen from infront surendering implies a war situation: not nice but goes with the territory of being a soldier.
The latest ad is a family in everyday clothes photographed from behind. The implication is a 7th October style terrorist attack, and is deeply unsettling.
The old Saatchi ads were effective - and made more sense; arms/arms meaning etc. plus it had a specificity that played into people's worries about what a Labour government would do.
TBH the whole 'surrender' word use is odd; it's obviously come from some focus group or other as effective, but it feels shoehorned and weird. I don't know why they aren't just hammering tax, tax, tax at this point. It's specific and it's a stereotypical floating voter concern about Labour.
We’re not seeing all of it though are we? These are presumably being heavily targeted at voters they think they can shift for particular reasons. I assume the media see some because they all have highly political social media feeds.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
It'd be remarkable if that debate swung it - everyone was watching the footy.
No they weren't, 3 million watched the debate which is the same number who watch Eastenders most nights now on the BBC.
Just 6 million watched the footie which is about the same number who watch Coronation Street now on ITV.
Both Eastenders and Corrie are normally still in the most watched 10 programmes each week though if no major sports event on
Corrie attracts twice as many viewers as Eastenders? Can't say I watch either, but what's the reason for this vast difference? I thought both were flagship programmes.
A Liberal Democrat candidate has apologised after being caught on a doorbell camera making an anti-Liverpool slur while canvassing for votes.
Lisa Smart was knocking on doors in Hazel Grove, in Stockport, when shemet a woman from Liverpool visiting her family.
After the woman explained she was registered to vote in Liverpool, Ms Smart replied: "Ah, understood – so you've just been nicking stuff while you're here."
Shocked, she told her relative who was horrified to watch the insult recorded on his doorbell camera.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
It'd be remarkable if that debate swung it - everyone was watching the footy.
No they weren't, 3 million watched the debate which is the same number who watch Eastenders most nights now on the BBC.
Just 6 million watched the footie which is about the same number who watch Coronation Street now on ITV.
Both Eastenders and Corrie are normally still in the most watched 10 programmes each week though if no major sports event on
Remember the start of June where everyone thought Sunak’s decent debate performance would help mitigate Tory losses?
He did alright yesterday but I think it won’t be any different this time. People have made their minds up.
It will provided he avoids another D Day gaffe as he did after his good performance in debate 1
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
It looks like a hostage situation to be honest.
"Hello? Yes, that's right, I have three hostages in here with me so don't even think of trying something because I swear to God I'll shoot them. I have a list of demands: 1. £10,000,000 IN SMALL DENOMINATION NON-SEQUENTIAL NOTES 2. THE IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF THE POLITICAL PRISONER JACKIE WEAVER AND THE DISSOLUTION OF HANDFORTH PARISH COUNCIL 3. DON'T SURRENDER OUR FUTURE TO LABOUR 4. A 12" THIN-CRUST HAWAIIAN PIZZA"
[Police cut the power and start playing Radiohead on a bank of speakers] [hostage taker shoots himself]
This sounds like the it's a robbery scene in Pulp fiction? Do we have a similar flim taste?
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
Even for the French.
I worked for a French company for 18 years and used to teach in Paris. Whenever I meet French vistors to the UK and conversation gets round to the fact I used to work in France they always ask where. When I say Paris the answer is always the same. Paris is not France. If we think there is a lot of dislike directed at London by the rest of the UK, it is nothing compared to how much the French regions hate Paris and the Parisians.
C’est vrait
This hatred of Paris is one driver of Le Pen’s support
Macron to be fair to him is quite regal in style and gets on well with King Charles and Camilla.
If you wanted a leader who would be manning the barricades and leading a storm of the Bastille it would be Le Pen or Melenchon, Macron would be an aristocrat trying to avoid the guillotine.
Culturally London has more in common with Paris than the provincial UK and vice versa
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
It's a wacky place. The rudeness is actually getting better. I think it is a performance in a number of places now - the tourists expect it.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
Yes. Things like that happen there. The place is pleasant and the people are quirky at best.
A London version.
I was walking home, by Tower Bridge, about 1am. Nearly no-one about.
A couple were walking on the other side of the road near the old Royal Mint building.
An unmarked van zoomed up, x armed police boiled out. Full regalia. Had the couple zipped tied and face down in seconds. Lots of shouting. After few seconds, the police boiled back into their van. Last moment cut the zip ties and put the couple back on their feet. Then zoomed off.
The whole thing lasted maybe 30 seconds. The couple looked utterly bewildered. My flatmate and I checked with each other that we had just seen what we had seen.
That's an easy one.
They wanted to use their phone to place a bet with Ladbrokes.
A Liberal Democrat candidate has apologised after being caught on a doorbell camera making an anti-Liverpool slur while canvassing for votes.
Lisa Smart was knocking on doors in Hazel Grove, in Stockport, when shemet a woman from Liverpool visiting her family.
After the woman explained she was registered to vote in Liverpool, Ms Smart replied: "Ah, understood – so you've just been nicking stuff while you're here."
Shocked, she told her relative who was horrified to watch the insult recorded on his doorbell camera.
Don't think that'll lose her too many votes in Greater Manchester, mind you.
Those Tory adverts (I don't want to quote as the images will be repeted).... The 80's ad is a soldier seen from infront surendering implies a war situation: not nice but goes with the territory of being a soldier.
The latest ad is a family in everyday clothes photographed from behind. The implication is a 7th October style terrorist attack, and is deeply unsettling.
I just assumed it was a way of avoiding paying usage fees
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
As an experienced traveller, Leon, you must remember that the French get extremely cross and upset if you do not speak to them in impeccable French. I expect you got a gender wrong, or something...
If it is not perfect they say no understand. Then use English. It might work or they walk away and leave.
That's my experience.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else. 2) They smile and often reply in English. 3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
I agree with you. Paris can be hard going.
It's a wacky place. The rudeness is actually getting better. I think it is a performance in a number of places now - the tourists expect it.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
Yes. Things like that happen there. The place is pleasant and the people are quirky at best.
A London version.
I was walking home, by Tower Bridge, about 1am. Nearly no-one about.
A couple were walking on the other side of the road near the old Royal Mint building.
An unmarked van zoomed up, x armed police boiled out. Full regalia. Had the couple zipped tied and face down in seconds. Lots of shouting. After few seconds, the police boiled back into their van. Last moment cut the zip ties and put the couple back on their feet. Then zoomed off.
The whole thing lasted maybe 30 seconds. The couple looked utterly bewildered. My flatmate and I checked with each other that we had just seen what we had seen.
I told this story here when it happened. Outside of the Southwold Post Office were half of the Suffolk Police force. Cars everywhere and a police van and 4 policemen were interrogating the obviously deadly terrorist.
So she was about 80 and pulling one of those little shopping trolleys that old ladies have. The trolley made its way into the police van and out again at least a couple of times.
I had no idea what was going on, but it got quite a crowd. Even the shop assistants stopped to watch as everyone was outside watching so no shopping was happening. I got bored after a while and left as whatever was happening wasn't ending quickly.
Still none the wiser. I suspect for Southwold littering is a big story. If the criminal fraternity of Suffolk knew what was going on they could have been ransacking the rest of Suffolk.
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
I think they shot that fox. Reform needed to have overtaken the Tories in most polls this week and then squeeze Tory voters further as the main alternative to Labour.
They didn't and Farage made his Putin gaffe so the Tories retain second and like Australia, Germany, Spain and New Zealand the centre right will remain ahead of the hard right, whereas Farage clearly wanted the UK to become like France or Sweden or Italy or Canada 1993 where the hard right overtook the centre right (the US in between, the GOP still the main party of the right but effectively so infected with Trumpism and led by Trump now for the moment it is a hard nationalist right party)
Maybe. But I detect hopecasting
We will see, if we had PR or second ballot then yes more likely Reform would overtake the Tories on seats and votes as the hard right has overtaken the centre right in France and Italy with those systems.
However under FPTP Farage really needed to destroy the Tories Canada 1993 style this election as their Reform destroyed the incumbent Tories as they went down to landslide defeat. He hasn't and so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right, well ahead of Reform on seats and best placed to pick up the FPTP protest vote on swing of the pendulum once in opposition
"so the Tories will remain the main opposition party of the right"
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
After last night's good debate perfomance by Sunak yes. I think they will get 150-200 seats now in the end
It'd be remarkable if that debate swung it - everyone was watching the footy.
No they weren't, 3 million watched the debate which is the same number who watch Eastenders most nights now on the BBC.
Just 6 million watched the footie which is about the same number who watch Coronation Street now on ITV.
Both Eastenders and Corrie are normally still in the most watched 10 programmes each week though if no major sports event on
And how many of those 3 million were undecided swing voters?
And how many of those 3 million were people like us who are interested in politics and already made our minds up.
A Liberal Democrat candidate has apologised after being caught on a doorbell camera making an anti-Liverpool slur while canvassing for votes.
Lisa Smart was knocking on doors in Hazel Grove, in Stockport, when shemet a woman from Liverpool visiting her family.
After the woman explained she was registered to vote in Liverpool, Ms Smart replied: "Ah, understood – so you've just been nicking stuff while you're here."
Shocked, she told her relative who was horrified to watch the insult recorded on his doorbell camera.
Don't think that'll lose her too many votes in Greater Manchester, mind you.
No, probably not; and the local Merseyside candidates can just disassociate themselves from it and everyone's a winner.......
Even after Putin-piffle, 27% of Brits have a favourable view of Farage (and 8% neutral) and the exact same proportion support Reform. 27%
That suggests they could get 27% at an election and easily overtake the Tories. They have the potential to be the opposition party in 2029 by which time they need to recruit better candidates and more talent and tack slightly to the centre (like Meloni and Le Pen) and then they could actually win (like Meloni and maybe Le Pen)
By the same logic the Greens could get 41% of the vote.
Nah
Saying you have a favourable view of the greens is like saying you “prefer clean rivers” and “please don’t chop down lovely trees”. Who has an issue with any of that? Most people aren’t aware the greens are now insane Woke Marxists
By contrast everyone knows Farage is basically Hitler and yet he has 27% favourability? I know PB doesn’t like hearing this but there is a decent possibility Britain will go down the same hard right road as France Holland Sweden and Italy
It's a fear for sure. 27% though - even FPTP would make it hard to win power on that.
Edit: And this is why it's much better to give RFM a few dozen seats with STV when they are on 10-15% of the vote, then to potentially let FPTP give them the keys to Number 10 on barely a quarter of the vote.
On that result even Tories like me would end up in liberal opposition to a hard right Farage government it would be left to Leon and LuckyGuy to champion. Farage would only need to get confidence and supply from the DUP
Sunak was much closer to Starmer in the post debate poll last night, this poll was pre debate
Oh HY, I almost feel sorry for you. You want so much for it to all turn out not so bad after all but I fear you are in for a terrible disappointment.
I doubt if more than a few thousand at most will be swayed by that debate. Against which the Tory propaganda machine continues it's relentless efforts to boost the Labour vote with the Ange PR piece and this shocker that will convince absolutely no one to vote Tory:
It looks like a hostage situation to be honest.
"Hello? Yes, that's right, I have three hostages in here with me so don't even think of trying something because I swear to God I'll shoot them. I have a list of demands: 1. £10,000,000 IN SMALL DENOMINATION NON-SEQUENTIAL NOTES 2. THE IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF THE POLITICAL PRISONER JACKIE WEAVER AND THE DISSOLUTION OF HANDFORTH PARISH COUNCIL 3. DON'T SURRENDER OUR FUTURE TO LABOUR 4. A 12" THIN-CRUST HAWAIIAN PIZZA"
[Police cut the power and start playing Radiohead on a bank of speakers] [hostage taker shoots himself]
This sounds like the it's a robbery scene in Pulp fiction? Do we have a similar flim taste?
Radiohead. Brillant. Paranoid Android. Wonderful.
Careful! That’s banning talk, that is.
Criticising Radiohead is a banning offence, claiming they are brilliant isn't - because RCS1000 doesn't believe in sarcasm...
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
Having read his article, it reads like the impending wipeout is being done to the Conservatives. Heath fails to realise that whatever happens will be because of the Conservatives total inability to govern.
They have done this to themselves. People are not voting for Starmer. This is an Augean Stable clearout
I agree. It's even slightly heart warming to see the progressive forces getting together to make sure that the really nasty forces of Suella Patel Mogg Johnson Truss Sunak and are not only soundly beaten but mauled.
Let's put them all on a flight to Rwanda without any chance of being allowed back to the UK as was their wish for others
I think you may be fooling yourself there @Roger To me it does not look as if some Progressive Masterplan is finally coming to fruition. I think it is much simpler than that.
I think that a lot of people simply hate the Tories.
This sort of thing must be enjoyable for lefties to read.
"Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again Right-wing Britain faces meltdown, with the almost total elimination of any power over the UK’s destiny Allister Heath"
Having read his article, it reads like the impending wipeout is being done to the Conservatives. Heath fails to realise that whatever happens will be because of the Conservatives total inability to govern.
They have done this to themselves. People are not voting for Starmer. This is an Augean Stable clearout
I'm voting fot Starmer, and last time i looked i was a person
Emergency Ilford North poster update. Five more Leanne's and three for Tipu of George Galloway's mob who is actually standing in Ilford South. Tricky things, maps.
Comments
Seems like the whole election campaign is being ran by interns.
An interesting qualification. Are you confident they will be the official opposition next Friday
There’s a reason why people were fed up with Labour in 2010. I was one of them. And I think the coalition did a good job 2010-2015. A pity it all went downhill since then. So while I’m not doubting that the country is in a real state right now, and probably worse overall than it was in 2010, it wasn’t some nirvana either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTRKCXC0JFg&t=8s
Has a watch and chain ... of course
Somehow I don't see it.
1) Try in French. Put lots of politeness in, if nothing else.
2) They smile and often reply in English.
3) Stuff happens.
Forget step 1) and it doesn't work.
The only place this didn't work was, it turned out, a cafe in Paris that *the locals* gave reviews describing the staff as rude and stupid.
https://x.com/MilkmanMeme/status/1805741863078420762
Because it's not big and it's not clever.
Utterly shocking report. You can't steal from the dead. The theft was from the guy's executors or administrators.
Indeed I predicted in about 2009 that if the powers-that-be kept ignoring anger about the EU then it would all blow up very very badly in the end
I’m a good extrapolator. Better than most on here. What I’m not good at is turning that into money and I’m also bad at timings because I extrapolate too fast and over estimate the speed of changes
So Britain will probably be hard right in 2031 not 2028
Just 6 million watched the footie which is about the same number who watch Coronation Street now on ITV.
Both Eastenders and Corrie are normally still in the most watched 10 programmes each week though if no major sports event on
This is going to be glorious.
Yes yes yes I can see the irony
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
I considered complaining to the police about the actions of a person related to the campaign I am involved in. I took advice from a prosecuting barrister. They told me what to do, but suggested that to get much action the police/CPS like to see dead bodies e.g. Hillsborough type events.
The 80's ad is a soldier seen from infront surendering implies a war situation: not nice but goes with the territory of being a soldier.
The latest ad is a family in everyday clothes photographed from behind. The implication is a 7th October style terrorist attack, and is deeply unsettling.
My favourite memory, recently. Went out at 7am for croissant/pastries for family breakfast. Filled a bag, sat down for a coffee.
A black Mercedes with blacked out windows was stopped at a traffic light ahead. A very small, battered white hatched back zoomed, backwards, out of a side road to block any progress.
Two huge armed policemen jumped out, dressed in full SAS-Ninja style, grenades hanging off the body armour, waving assault rifles. All the tattoos and piercings as well. Two more jumped out of the rears seats a moment later.
Then the boot opened and a fifth giant commando unfurled himself. The sum of the volume of the commandos was greater than the volume of the car - no possible doubt.
No one else seemed bothered, so I finished the coffee and left. Walked back along a section of elevated railway that had been converted to a linear garden/walking route.
I worked for a French company for 18 years and used to teach in Paris. Whenever I meet French vistors to the UK and conversation gets round to the fact I used to work in France they always ask where. When I say Paris the answer is always the same. Paris is not France. If we think there is a lot of dislike directed at London by the rest of the UK, it is nothing compared to how much the French regions hate Paris and the Parisians.
IMO, Gordon Brown was a rubbish PM
RFM 27% (322 seats)
LAB 23% (157)
LDM 20% (86)
CON 14% (32)
GRN 11% (7)
NAT/NI/OTH (46 seats)
Edit: And this is why it's much better to give RFM a few dozen seats with STV when they are on 10-15% of the vote, then to potentially let FPTP give them the keys to Number 10 on barely a quarter of the vote.
He did alright yesterday but I think it won’t be any different this time. People have made their minds up.
They have done this to themselves. People are not voting for Starmer. This is an Augean Stable clearout
1 issue here is timing -
Labour will be in power on July 5th
Le Pen will be taking over on July 15th after the second round.
We then have the olympics from the 26th which means I think Paris is going to be on holiday from the 15th / 22nd rather than the traditional August off.
He was walking home from working in a pub. A car came round a corner to fast and knocked down.
A policeman came along a bit later and found a long hair youth, moaning in the gutter. Smelling of the beer from the pub. So he did the obvious. Kicked him a few times, then arrested him for drunk and disorderly.
The fly in the ointment was that the bank up the road had installed CCTV (a bit new then). Which showed the entire sequence of events.
Because the technology was new, it was actually a bit overspec'd - the resolution was sharp enough to show the watch on his wrist as he was hauled away, semi-conscious in the police van. Not recorded when they brought him to the station....
🚨🚨 PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨🚨
If you're looking for a list of UK electoral seats ordered by Conservative majority so you can play along with the election ....
.... over 9 pages for a wall collage ...
you're welcome
https://x.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1806265106411536584
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
This hatred of Paris is one driver of Le Pen’s support
I was walking home, by Tower Bridge, about 1am. Nearly no-one about.
A couple were walking on the other side of the road near the old Royal Mint building.
An unmarked van zoomed up, x armed police boiled out. Full regalia. Had the couple zipped tied and face down in seconds. Lots of shouting. After few seconds, the police boiled back into their van. Last moment cut the zip ties and put the couple back on their feet. Then zoomed off.
The whole thing lasted maybe 30 seconds. The couple looked utterly bewildered. My flatmate and I checked with each other that we had just seen what we had seen.
TBH the whole 'surrender' word use is odd; it's obviously come from some focus group or other as effective, but it feels shoehorned and weird. I don't know why they aren't just hammering tax, tax, tax at this point. It's specific and it's a stereotypical floating voter concern about Labour.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
Let's put them all on a flight to Rwanda without any chance of being allowed back to the UK as was their wish for others
https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2024-06-26/lib-dem-candidate-asks-liverpool-woman-if-shed-been-nicking-stuff
A Liberal Democrat candidate has apologised after being caught on a doorbell camera making an anti-Liverpool slur while canvassing for votes.
Lisa Smart was knocking on doors in Hazel Grove, in Stockport, when shemet a woman from Liverpool visiting her family.
After the woman explained she was registered to vote in Liverpool, Ms Smart replied: "Ah, understood – so you've just been nicking stuff while you're here."
Shocked, she told her relative who was horrified to watch the insult recorded on his doorbell camera.
I blame autocorrect.
If you wanted a leader who would be manning the barricades and leading a storm of the Bastille it would be Le Pen or Melenchon, Macron would be an aristocrat trying to avoid the guillotine.
Culturally London has more in common with Paris than the provincial UK and vice versa
They wanted to use their phone to place a bet with Ladbrokes.
So she was about 80 and pulling one of those little shopping trolleys that old ladies have. The trolley made its way into the police van and out again at least a couple of times.
I had no idea what was going on, but it got quite a crowd. Even the shop assistants stopped to watch as everyone was outside watching so no shopping was happening. I got bored after a while and left as whatever was happening wasn't ending quickly.
Still none the wiser. I suspect for Southwold littering is a big story. If the criminal fraternity of Suffolk knew what was going on they could have been ransacking the rest of Suffolk.
And how many of those 3 million were people like us who are interested in politics and already made our minds up.
Sorry HYUFD, the die is cast.
I think that a lot of people simply hate the Tories.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/26/india-manipulating-t20-world-cup-draw-made-it-farce/