I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
The point is you want us to be soft and cuddly with a nasty party of racists and bigots and Putin apologists, that somehow found many quite literal fascists as candidates, rather than call them what they are - extremists.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
As for the rest of this tripe, it's the standard 'nasty party of racist bigots' that gets chucked at every right wing party that dares to challenge the prevailing consensus. It's a pathetic spectacle to see an avowed libertarian free marketeer chucking around such terms, but hey, you do you.
I’m calling you out over this.
Farage and Reform are extreme on the majority of people’s political barometer. If you tell yourself that they’re not that says more about you. Stop trying to pretend to us otherwise. It’s a classic tactic of extremists throughout history that they try to make out that they are decent people and not extreme at all.
If you are going to counter argue at least not substitute (presumably deliberate) extreme for racist bigots - you dont fool anyone with trying to match the two like that - many people are extreme (do we really want everybody to have the same establishment led position on things?) ,far less is what one poster on here hysterically refers to as racist bigots
Looks like one of the engines on that Mig-29 is in serious need of maintenance.
Ukranians doing well to keep these things in the air though - I guess there are enough spare airframes left in the rest of the world to scavenge parts from?
This is apparently a shitty old Mig in Russian airspace (close to the border, granted). Which is interesting.
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
In reality that's surely a Lib Dem gain.
Well its a constituency poll, no reason for either Lab or LD to back off
MRPs and council elections suggest to me it'll be a Lib Dem gain.
YG and Focaldata MRPs very very close to the LD and Con shares but Ref doing MUCH worse and Lab much better
The constituency that has Bicester village at it's heart doesn't strike me as particularly fertile Reform ground ! Prime Lib Dem Gain territory to my mind.
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Well yes: I think that's inevitable when the LibDems are essentially flat nationally, while Labour is up.
It means there is a fair chance that a fair number of Conservative MPs will be saved by a split opposition. (I'd also note that Reform is only on 3% there. That's quite surprising. And encouraging for them. It suggests they aren't going to suffer too much from Alliance 1983 disease.)
Looks like one of the engines on that Mig-29 is in serious need of maintenance.
Ukranians doing well to keep these things in the air though - I guess there are enough spare airframes left in the rest of the world to scavenge parts from?
This is apparently a shitty old Mig in Russian airspace (close to the border, granted). Which is interesting.
Roll on the F16s.
It also suggests that Russia's S-300 shield is no longer working as well as it was.
While recording for @novaramedia in Chichester I came across groups of teenagers saying they support Nigel Farage and Reform.
One of them, a mixed heritage guy doing his A-levels, said immigrants should be sent back.
A really extraordinary encounter. Watch.
The BBC had a similar experience with a Latvian lady....it broke their group think, they literally said but but but you can't be against immigration, you are one....she wasn't haven't any of it. Obviously she came legally and works like 3 jobs, so wasn't very impressed at the thought of people coming illegally and claiming benefits (that's her take).
Who would have thought that immigrants have multiple aspects to their personality, beyond the fact that they were born in another country?
The interviewers must have led pretty sheltered lives not to have come across these views before.
All immigrants are made, identically, in the immigrant factory.
Anyone who doesn’t hold the right views is obviously a Fascist Gammon White Man.
Has anyone seen any constituency polls on Southend east, and Southend West, bookies have Labour marginal favourites in Southend West, and strong favourites in Southend East. If the Torys lose both of them, they will be in for a torrid night next week, in the Blair years Labour never came within a sniff of coming anywhere near winning in Southend, I'm not totally convinced they will this time
But this time there is a right wing alternative that will take big chunks of the tory vote in both seats.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Well yes: I think that's inevitable when the LibDems are essentially flat nationally, while Labour is up.
It means there is a fair chance that a fair number of Conservative MPs will be saved by a split opposition. (I'd also note that Reform is only on 3% there. That's quite surprising. And encouraging for them. It suggests they aren't going to suffer too much from Alliance 1983 disease.)
yes the Reform vote may be more efficient that is being credited for - skybet had them at 2/1 to win 7 or more seats yesterday
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
There's so much packed into one poll! Tories, on the one hand, threatened on two fronts, on the other in with a shout of defending about the 200th safest seat. Reform nowhere compared to MRPs - does this mean their vote is clumpy and wins seats? Or non existant? Big Lab gain in a non target seat - anti gov vote like the pre election polling? LDs can win but not a big vote gain showing, is there a cap on their ambitions?? 18.5% swing. Thrilling stuff
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
Personally I prefer Ruby... Matz's attitude of optimising for programmer happiness makes me Fittier, Happier and More Productive.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Has anyone seen any constituency polls on Southend east, and Southend West, bookies have Labour marginal favourites in Southend West, and strong favourites in Southend East. If the Torys lose both of them, they will be in for a torrid night next week, in the Blair years Labour never came within a sniff of coming anywhere near winning in Southend, I'm not totally convinced they will this time
But this time there is a right wing alternative that will take big chunks of the tory vote in both seats.
We shall see, I'm thinking of backing the Blues in Southend West, just because of historical results, but wouldn't have a clue what the news is on the ground
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
Less danger of "Oh shit I've accidentally created a memory worm that just knocked over our development server".
Reform 20%+ vote share is unjustifiably short on Betfair in my view (3.1), given they're yet to touch it in a poll and fringe party votes usually tighten. Considering the lay
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Labour run the risk of letting the Cons through. Hopefully the lack of ground campaign tells and the LDs can secure.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
Personally I prefer Ruby... Matz's attitude of optimising for programmer happiness makes me Fittier, Happier and More Productive.
Reform 20%+ vote share is unjustifiably short on Betfair in my view (3.1), given they're yet to touch it in a poll and fringe party votes usually tighten. Considering the lay
I would agree but think better to back under 17.5% with ladbrokes at around evens. Reform will poll less overall votes but get ore seats than predicted I think
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
The problem as I have said in the past is that it is ever easier to run businesses in countries you don't even live in, and some countries know this and making it very attractive offers.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Project Fear.
There is some truth to it, though, isn’t there? Or is it just truthy?
I am myself - if not a tax exile - an opportunity exile.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Reform 20%+ vote share is unjustifiably short on Betfair in my view (3.1), given they're yet to touch it in a poll and fringe party votes usually tighten. Considering the lay
Its probably a lay. But if there is a "shy" vote out there it will surely be Reform.
Reform 20%+ vote share is unjustifiably short on Betfair in my view (3.1), given they're yet to touch it in a poll and fringe party votes usually tighten. Considering the lay
I would agree but think better to back under 17.5% with ladbrokes at around evens. Reform will poll less overall votes but get ore seats than predicted I think
I'm not surprised Reform are going to lose their deposit in leafy Oxfordshire, Jaywick sands and Bicester village are very different places.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
And both parties have pledged to hit non-doms of course.
Hard to feel massive sympathy, but one imagines they generate a decent contribution to the overall economy. They are, by definition, rootless.
This isn't a team blue or red good / bad. They are both bad in this respect. Same as the nonsense nanny state ciggies, energy drink and phone bans. And its not just non-doms, it ever easier to run businesses remotely. Loads of people are leaving for UAE for instance. You can get also fairly easily setup in a Portugal or Estonia if you want to stay closer to home.
Its a really tricky problem. How to capture those taking the piss, while not making it so oppressive that those with wealth just leave.
Same as turn-over taxes are absolutely terrible for businesses that are small and trying to grow, but large businesses can play the globalised game and too easily escape taxes on profits. Squaring that circle is really tricky.
This guy makes lots of interest points and some sensible ideas.
Reform 20%+ vote share is unjustifiably short on Betfair in my view (3.1), given they're yet to touch it in a poll and fringe party votes usually tighten. Considering the lay
Its probably a lay. But if there is a "shy" vote out there it will surely be Reform.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
The point is you want us to be soft and cuddly with a nasty party of racists and bigots and Putin apologists, that somehow found many quite literal fascists as candidates, rather than call them what they are - extremists.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
As for the rest of this tripe, it's the standard 'nasty party of racist bigots' that gets chucked at every right wing party that dares to challenge the prevailing consensus. It's a pathetic spectacle to see an avowed libertarian free marketeer chucking around such terms, but hey, you do you.
I’m calling you out over this.
Farage and Reform are extreme on the majority of people’s political barometer. If you tell yourself that they’re not that says more about you. Stop trying to pretend to us otherwise. It’s a classic tactic of extremists throughout history that they try to make out that they are decent people and not extreme at all.
I only partially agree.
Much of what Reform have been saying for mos of this year has been for at least 50% of the population fairly uncontroversial - immigration is too high, taxes are too high, work is not being rewarded. The sorts of things you'd expect a Conservative opposition party to be saying, and unsurprising given the historically high levels of immigration and tax we currently have. Not likely to win much support in Islington, but not surprising opinions to hear in Surrey or Devon, I would have thought. Well within the Overton window; if that is extremist, much of the country is extremist.
And then Farage came along and inserted himself as leader. Farage isn't to everyone's tastes and certainly not to mine, but until recently I wouldn't have described him as an extremist.
But then: a) Farage was challenged on the Putin issue. He could easily have tacked back to the mainstream on this, but didn't. I'd argue that therefore, yes, he is an extremist on Russia (along with Corbyn and Galloway), and as that is one of the most important issues facing government today, yes, he is an extremist. and b) almost incredibly, Reform candidates appeared to be falling over themselves to join him.
So while I don't think it's the case that having a lot of views which tally with the kinds of themes Reform were pushing is extremist, it does appear to be the case that there are quite a lot of extremists among Reform candidates. Including, perhaps, its current leader.
Once again, I can't help thinking Reform would have been better off sticking with Richard Tice.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Has anyone seen any constituency polls on Southend east, and Southend West, bookies have Labour marginal favourites in Southend West, and strong favourites in Southend East. If the Torys lose both of them, they will be in for a torrid night next week, in the Blair years Labour never came within a sniff of coming anywhere near winning in Southend, I'm not totally convinced they will this time
Used to be ‘sort of’ involved there in my (relative) youth. Boundaries in the East have been changed, but it was always less safe than the West. One-time schoolmate of mine came very close for the Alliance back in the day. Southend West…… must have a strong Reform and/or LibDem challenge.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
Could be worse - in my industry I've just spent a day trying to correct a Microsoft MVP who is claiming there is nothing wrong having unmanaged releases in a production environment.
Now you can do that - but it's really not recommended and hasn't been for over 12 years...
I finally shut him up by pointing at that for the system to be certifiable it would need a full manual regression test for ever release where were things done correctly it's test the changes and spot checks elsewhere..
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
Ordinal numbers can be misleading and the quote is not meaningful unless:
it is accompanied by the absolute number of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the percentage of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the distribution of millionaires that are leaving their native country
It's also ignoring that an awful lot of people who own a half decent house in the South East are paper millionaires.
If you watch the video, this is talking about people who are liquid millionaires without property, not Sid from Essex whose detached house that they paid £5k over 40 years ago for is worth a million quid now and is off to the South of Spain to retire.
Patrick Boyle is a serious person, who lectures at King College London.
Has anyone seen any constituency polls on Southend east, and Southend West, bookies have Labour marginal favourites in Southend West, and strong favourites in Southend East. If the Torys lose both of them, they will be in for a torrid night next week, in the Blair years Labour never came within a sniff of coming anywhere near winning in Southend, I'm not totally convinced they will this time
But this time there is a right wing alternative that will take big chunks of the tory vote in both seats.
If 2019 was about the North aligning more with the South in terms of the kind of places that can go Tory, 2024 is about the South returning the complement in terms of the types of places that can go Labour.
yes all those who advocate no negotiations on here should realise that a lot of young men are dying horribly - Its not a video game .Its why Farage did not really makes a mistake when he talked about the war as at least the number of people voting for Reform agree with him
You do realise you are agreeing with another of our Saturday morning Russobots don't you? We only tolerate him because he is funny and we are seeing how longbhe can last before he trips Robert's troll metre devise.
We now assign our bots posting schedules? When did that start?
They do it themselves. Normally turn up on Friday night or Saturday morning. It is great fun as we can bet on how long it will be before they are banned and who will be the first to spot them.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
I went from VHDL/SystemVerilog to Python at my current role, which means my code follows conventions of a strongly typed language right down to my personal paranoia about variable names. Two weeks trying to find a bug caused by a miscapitalization was enough thanks. However, since I never really worked in software object oriented languages it isn't very "Pythonic".
Can't believe it took Python so long to introduce a bloody case statement though.
The funny bit is, six weeks ago, it really did look like the Russians might be winning. Sure, they were taking horrendous casualties, but they were advancing on all fronts.
But in the last month, the Russian advance has totally stalled. So much so, that the Russians are bringing in troops from one of the poorest countries in the world to try and bolster their numbers.
It's hard to see how a bunch of starving, ill equipped North Korean conscripts will tip the tide for the Russians. And the fact that it is clearly increasingly hard for Russia to get enough troops from the provinces to fight is a sign of just how thinly stretched they are right now.
Putin is desperately hanging on and hoping for a Trump victory that will, he hopes, force Ukraine to the negotiating table so he can claim victory.
But I'm increasingly confident that Ukraine will hang on irrespective of what happens in the US. And I'm enormously relieved that Starmer is likely to continue to fully support Ukraine. I just hope that other European countries are as steadfast.
I wonder how much Kim is charging Vlad for his new source of cannon fodder?
Russia must be really desperate if they’re reduced to scraping up the dregs from NK in order to find more warm bodies to throw at the front.
There’s quite the opportunity for the Ukrainians to pick up hundreds of defectors in the next few weeks. No way the NorKs have any loyalty to Putin, and they can be offered citizenship of a Western Ukraine for the rebuilding of the country. They could be though of in the same way that the UK thinks of the Gurkhas.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
I went from VHDL/SystemVerilog to Python at my current role, which means my code follows conventions of a strongly typed language right down to my personal paranoia about variable names. Two weeks trying to find a bug caused by a miscapitalization was enough thanks. However, since I never really worked in software object oriented languages it isn't very "Pythonic".
That reminds me of 2 days back in 2011 where 2 of us tried to spot a typo in some historic Java code...
when you have external parameter names of Variable and internal names of variable a single case is fine to find..
While recording for @novaramedia in Chichester I came across groups of teenagers saying they support Nigel Farage and Reform.
One of them, a mixed heritage guy doing his A-levels, said immigrants should be sent back.
A really extraordinary encounter. Watch.
The BBC had a similar experience with a Latvian lady....it broke their group think, they literally said but but but you can't be against immigration, you are one....she wasn't haven't any of it. Obviously she came legally and works like 3 jobs, so wasn't very impressed at the thought of people coming illegally and claiming benefits (that's her take).
You are misrepresenting the BBC clip quite significantly. It was far more nuanced than your caricature.
It was from a Newsnight piece from Peterborough with multiple vox pops from multiple people, both native born and migrant, including asylum seekers.
The whole piece was about the variations and differences expressed by both native Britons and migrants, which covered the entire spectrum of views. The point of it was very much not that all immigrants are alike and that there were many different responses.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
Ordinal numbers can be misleading and the quote is not meaningful unless:
it is accompanied by the absolute number of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the percentage of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the distribution of millionaires that are leaving their native country
It's also ignoring that an awful lot of people who own a half decent house in the South East are paper millionaires.
If you watch the video, this is talking about people who are liquid millionaires without property, not Sid from Essex whose detached house that they paid £5k over 40 years ago for is worth a million quid now and is off to the South of Spain to retire.
Patrick Boyle is a serious person, who lectures at King College London.
Sid comes out of that lot with $1m net liquid investables.
"A woman has emailed @TimesRadio to say she is planning to *knit* the election result - row by row, colour by colour, for every seat declared - and I honestly cannot think of anything more wonderfully British and fitting for this election.
Truly, an inspiration to all"
she wont need that second ball of blue wool though.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
Ordinal numbers can be misleading and the quote is not meaningful unless:
it is accompanied by the absolute number of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the percentage of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the distribution of millionaires that are leaving their native country
It's also ignoring that an awful lot of people who own a half decent house in the South East are paper millionaires.
If you watch the video, this is talking about people who are liquid millionaires without property, not Sid from Essex whose detached house that they paid £5k over 40 years ago for is worth a million quid now and is off to the South of Spain to retire.
Patrick Boyle is a serious person, who lectures at King College London.
Sid comes out of that lot with $1m net liquid investables.
Has anyone seen any constituency polls on Southend east, and Southend West, bookies have Labour marginal favourites in Southend West, and strong favourites in Southend East. If the Torys lose both of them, they will be in for a torrid night next week, in the Blair years Labour never came within a sniff of coming anywhere near winning in Southend, I'm not totally convinced they will this time
But this time there is a right wing alternative that will take big chunks of the tory vote in both seats.
If 2019 was about the North aligning more with the South in terms of the kind of places that can go Tory, 2024 is about the South returning the complement in terms of the types of places that can go Labour.
Its why I think this election will be fascinating, seats that have never been anywhere near Labour, turning Red next week, there will be a lot of people waking up on Friday, if the polls are to be believed, saying jesus we have got a Labour MP
The funny bit is, six weeks ago, it really did look like the Russians might be winning. Sure, they were taking horrendous casualties, but they were advancing on all fronts.
But in the last month, the Russian advance has totally stalled. So much so, that the Russians are bringing in troops from one of the poorest countries in the world to try and bolster their numbers.
It's hard to see how a bunch of starving, ill equipped North Korean conscripts will tip the tide for the Russians. And the fact that it is clearly increasingly hard for Russia to get enough troops from the provinces to fight is a sign of just how thinly stretched they are right now.
Putin is desperately hanging on and hoping for a Trump victory that will, he hopes, force Ukraine to the negotiating table so he can claim victory.
But I'm increasingly confident that Ukraine will hang on irrespective of what happens in the US. And I'm enormously relieved that Starmer is likely to continue to fully support Ukraine. I just hope that other European countries are as steadfast.
I wonder how much Kim is charging Vlad for his new source of cannon fodder?
Russia must be really desperate if they’re reduced to scraping up the dregs from NK in order to find more warm bodies to throw at the front.
There’s quite the opportunity for the Ukrainians to pick up hundreds of defectors in the next few weeks. No way the NorKs have any loyalty to Putin, and they can be offered citizenship of a Western Ukraine for the rebuilding of the country. They could be though of in the same way that the UK thinks of the Gurkhas.
There is a curious and longstanding Ukranian community of Koreans I believe, deported by Stalin to Ukraine from the Soviet Far East because of suspect loyalties so he didn't want them near the border with Japanese occupied Korea and Manchuria.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
The point is you want us to be soft and cuddly with a nasty party of racists and bigots and Putin apologists, that somehow found many quite literal fascists as candidates, rather than call them what they are - extremists.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
As for the rest of this tripe, it's the standard 'nasty party of racist bigots' that gets chucked at every right wing party that dares to challenge the prevailing consensus. It's a pathetic spectacle to see an avowed libertarian free marketeer chucking around such terms, but hey, you do you.
I’m calling you out over this.
Farage and Reform are extreme on the majority of people’s political barometer. If you tell yourself that they’re not that says more about you. Stop trying to pretend to us otherwise. It’s a classic tactic of extremists throughout history that they try to make out that they are decent people and not extreme at all.
I only partially agree.
Much of what Reform have been saying for mos of this year has been for at least 50% of the population fairly uncontroversial - immigration is too high, taxes are too high, work is not being rewarded. The sorts of things you'd expect a Conservative opposition party to be saying, and unsurprising given the historically high levels of immigration and tax we currently have. Not likely to win much support in Islington, but not surprising opinions to hear in Surrey or Devon, I would have thought. Well within the Overton window; if that is extremist, much of the country is extremist.
And then Farage came along and inserted himself as leader. Farage isn't to everyone's tastes and certainly not to mine, but until recently I wouldn't have described him as an extremist.
But then: a) Farage was challenged on the Putin issue. He could easily have tacked back to the mainstream on this, but didn't. I'd argue that therefore, yes, he is an extremist on Russia (along with Corbyn and Galloway), and as that is one of the most important issues facing government today, yes, he is an extremist. and b) almost incredibly, Reform candidates appeared to be falling over themselves to join him.
So while I don't think it's the case that having a lot of views which tally with the kinds of themes Reform were pushing is extremist, it does appear to be the case that there are quite a lot of extremists among Reform candidates. Including, perhaps, its current leader.
Once again, I can't help thinking Reform would have been better off sticking with Richard Tice.
Nope. It was Farage that energised them. Their problem, if such it be, is their reliance on his one-man-brand. If something happened to Nige they may just fizzle out. Maybe.
While recording for @novaramedia in Chichester I came across groups of teenagers saying they support Nigel Farage and Reform.
One of them, a mixed heritage guy doing his A-levels, said immigrants should be sent back.
A really extraordinary encounter. Watch.
The BBC had a similar experience with a Latvian lady....it broke their group think, they literally said but but but you can't be against immigration, you are one....she wasn't haven't any of it. Obviously she came legally and works like 3 jobs, so wasn't very impressed at the thought of people coming illegally and claiming benefits (that's her take).
You are misrepresenting the BBC clip quite significantly. It was far more nuanced than your caricature.
It was from a Newsnight piece from Peterborough with multiple vox pops from multiple people, both native born and migrant, including asylum seekers.
The whole piece was about the variations and differences expressed by both native Britons and migrants, which covered the entire spectrum of views. The point of it was very much not that all immigrants are alike and that there were many different responses.
Just outside Parca, we find Irena delivering parcels. She’s originally from Latvia and says she works up to 60 hours a week. I jokingly ask what she would do if she were the next prime minister. “I would close the borders!” she says. It’s not the answer we expected.
Irena arrived here 15 years ago, when the UK was part of the EU, and she’s now a British citizen and planning to vote in the general election.
It becomes clear her issue is illegal immigration. “I don't understand why France doesn't close the borders, why they let people risk their lives and cross the channel. If they say the first safe country is OK, why do you pass several safe countries and then England in the end. Why?”
Does she see any conflict between her own journey and her views now? “I'm working. I'm all the time working,” she says, adding that she never asked the state for anything.
While recording for @novaramedia in Chichester I came across groups of teenagers saying they support Nigel Farage and Reform.
One of them, a mixed heritage guy doing his A-levels, said immigrants should be sent back.
A really extraordinary encounter. Watch.
The BBC had a similar experience with a Latvian lady....it broke their group think, they literally said but but but you can't be against immigration, you are one....she wasn't haven't any of it. Obviously she came legally and works like 3 jobs, so wasn't very impressed at the thought of people coming illegally and claiming benefits (that's her take).
You are misrepresenting the BBC clip quite significantly. It was far more nuanced than your caricature.
It was from a Newsnight piece from Peterborough with multiple vox pops from multiple people, both native born and migrant, including asylum seekers.
The whole piece was about the variations and differences expressed by both native Britons and migrants, which covered the entire spectrum of views. The point of it was very much not that all immigrants are alike and that there were many different responses.
Just outside Parca, we find Irena delivering parcels. She’s originally from Latvia and says she works up to 60 hours a week. I jokingly ask what she would do if she were the next prime minister. “I would close the borders!” she says. It’s not the answer we expected.
Irena arrived here 15 years ago, when the UK was part of the EU, and she’s now a British citizen and planning to vote in the general election.
It becomes clear her issue is illegal immigration. “I don't understand why France doesn't close the borders, why they let people risk their lives and cross the channel. If they say the first safe country is OK, why do you pass several safe countries and then England in the end. Why?”
Does she see any conflict between her own journey and her views now? “I'm working. I'm all the time working,” she says, adding that she never asked the state for anything.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
I went from VHDL/SystemVerilog to Python at my current role, which means my code follows conventions of a strongly typed language right down to my personal paranoia about variable names. Two weeks trying to find a bug caused by a miscapitalization was enough thanks. However, since I never really worked in software object oriented languages it isn't very "Pythonic".
That reminds me of 2 days back in 2011 where 2 of us tried to spot a typo in some historic Java code...
when you have external parameter names of Variable and internal names of variable a single case is fine to find..
This one was particularly perplexing because it was a synthesizer - simulator mismatch. When you're writing HDL for deployment to a gate array you test on a simulation engine before doing the long, tedious synth and retime step. I'd written some code which linked up a state machine to a trigger output which was meant to fire when the control software gave a transmit command. That worked fine in sim, but when I ran it on the hardware I couldn't get the system to transmit to save me. I sat with a logic analyser, scope and probes for two days, generating multiple builds with test outputs so I could see what was going on inside the system. I couldn't figure out what was wrong because it was all working fine, but the output was still driving zeroes. Eventually I pulled up the generated schematic and went through it panel by panel and worked out that the output had been tied zero by the synthesizer. Took me about another day to spot that instead of thisVariable, I'd typed ThisVariable instead. The synthesiser should have caught that and replicated the behaviour but didn't. Given this software is meant to be aerospace safety compliant and one of the strictest criteria is that simulations must faithfully represent the operation of the hardware I was not happy.
Has anyone seen any constituency polls on Southend east, and Southend West, bookies have Labour marginal favourites in Southend West, and strong favourites in Southend East. If the Torys lose both of them, they will be in for a torrid night next week, in the Blair years Labour never came within a sniff of coming anywhere near winning in Southend, I'm not totally convinced they will this time
But this time there is a right wing alternative that will take big chunks of the tory vote in both seats.
If 2019 was about the North aligning more with the South in terms of the kind of places that can go Tory, 2024 is about the South returning the complement in terms of the types of places that can go Labour.
Its why I think this election will be fascinating, seats that have never been anywhere near Labour, turning Red next week, there will be a lot of people waking up on Friday, if the polls are to be believed, saying jesus we have got a Labour MP
Jesus will just look round, shrug, and reply: “What good is it for someone to gain the whole world, yet forfeit their soul?"
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
The funny bit is, six weeks ago, it really did look like the Russians might be winning. Sure, they were taking horrendous casualties, but they were advancing on all fronts.
But in the last month, the Russian advance has totally stalled. So much so, that the Russians are bringing in troops from one of the poorest countries in the world to try and bolster their numbers.
It's hard to see how a bunch of starving, ill equipped North Korean conscripts will tip the tide for the Russians. And the fact that it is clearly increasingly hard for Russia to get enough troops from the provinces to fight is a sign of just how thinly stretched they are right now.
Putin is desperately hanging on and hoping for a Trump victory that will, he hopes, force Ukraine to the negotiating table so he can claim victory.
But I'm increasingly confident that Ukraine will hang on irrespective of what happens in the US. And I'm enormously relieved that Starmer is likely to continue to fully support Ukraine. I just hope that other European countries are as steadfast.
I wonder how much Kim is charging Vlad for his new source of cannon fodder?
Russia must be really desperate if they’re reduced to scraping up the dregs from NK in order to find more warm bodies to throw at the front.
There’s quite the opportunity for the Ukrainians to pick up hundreds of defectors in the next few weeks. No way the NorKs have any loyalty to Putin, and they can be offered citizenship of a Western Ukraine for the rebuilding of the country. They could be though of in the same way that the UK thinks of the Gurkhas.
There is a curious and longstanding Ukranian community of Koreans I believe, deported by Stalin to Ukraine from the Soviet Far East because of suspect loyalties so he didn't want them near the border with Japanese occupied Korea and Manchuria.
Until the war, didn't North Korea used to send state sponsored workers to places like Ukraine. They were cheap labour for these Eastern European countries to replace the Ukrainians going to Poland, the Poles going to Germany / UK. And obvious they are run by gang masters and all the wages get sent back to North Korean government.
While recording for @novaramedia in Chichester I came across groups of teenagers saying they support Nigel Farage and Reform.
One of them, a mixed heritage guy doing his A-levels, said immigrants should be sent back.
A really extraordinary encounter. Watch.
The BBC had a similar experience with a Latvian lady....it broke their group think, they literally said but but but you can't be against immigration, you are one....she wasn't haven't any of it. Obviously she came legally and works like 3 jobs, so wasn't very impressed at the thought of people coming illegally and claiming benefits (that's her take).
You are misrepresenting the BBC clip quite significantly. It was far more nuanced than your caricature.
It was from a Newsnight piece from Peterborough with multiple vox pops from multiple people, both native born and migrant, including asylum seekers.
The whole piece was about the variations and differences expressed by both native Britons and migrants, which covered the entire spectrum of views. The point of it was very much not that all immigrants are alike and that there were many different responses.
Just outside Parca, we find Irena delivering parcels. She’s originally from Latvia and says she works up to 60 hours a week. I jokingly ask what she would do if she were the next prime minister. “I would close the borders!” she says. It’s not the answer we expected.
Irena arrived here 15 years ago, when the UK was part of the EU, and she’s now a British citizen and planning to vote in the general election.
It becomes clear her issue is illegal immigration. “I don't understand why France doesn't close the borders, why they let people risk their lives and cross the channel. If they say the first safe country is OK, why do you pass several safe countries and then England in the end. Why?”
Does she see any conflict between her own journey and her views now? “I'm working. I'm all the time working,” she says, adding that she never asked the state for anything.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
Luxury.
My last job involved working on a 30-year old ERM C++ code base initially written by a self-taught guy and developed organically over the years. It was a complete mess of spaghetti with little discernible encapsulation. Documentation? Tests? Yeah, right. Any change you made to the code would normally cause it to fail somewhere else completely. Strings would be converted from one type to another at least half a dozen times on their progress from creation to display. Running a static code analysis revealed that at least 50% of the code was unreachable.
To add insult to injury, the lead developer didn't believe in whitespace, so everything would be scrunched up as much as the language syntax would allow. Just trying to read the code gave you a headache, let alone understand it. It was no wonder they struggled to retain developers. I managed a year and a half before leaving to preserve my sanity.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Incisive but slightly pompous. My guess is Christopher Hitchens but my mental quote library isn't well furnished.
EDIT after looking up the answer: Ah, interesting. Not someone whose work I've encountered much.
While recording for @novaramedia in Chichester I came across groups of teenagers saying they support Nigel Farage and Reform.
One of them, a mixed heritage guy doing his A-levels, said immigrants should be sent back.
A really extraordinary encounter. Watch.
The BBC had a similar experience with a Latvian lady....it broke their group think, they literally said but but but you can't be against immigration, you are one....she wasn't haven't any of it. Obviously she came legally and works like 3 jobs, so wasn't very impressed at the thought of people coming illegally and claiming benefits (that's her take).
You are misrepresenting the BBC clip quite significantly. It was far more nuanced than your caricature.
It was from a Newsnight piece from Peterborough with multiple vox pops from multiple people, both native born and migrant, including asylum seekers.
The whole piece was about the variations and differences expressed by both native Britons and migrants, which covered the entire spectrum of views. The point of it was very much not that all immigrants are alike and that there were many different responses.
Just outside Parca, we find Irena delivering parcels. She’s originally from Latvia and says she works up to 60 hours a week. I jokingly ask what she would do if she were the next prime minister. “I would close the borders!” she says. It’s not the answer we expected.
Irena arrived here 15 years ago, when the UK was part of the EU, and she’s now a British citizen and planning to vote in the general election.
It becomes clear her issue is illegal immigration. “I don't understand why France doesn't close the borders, why they let people risk their lives and cross the channel. If they say the first safe country is OK, why do you pass several safe countries and then England in the end. Why?”
Does she see any conflict between her own journey and her views now? “I'm working. I'm all the time working,” she says, adding that she never asked the state for anything.
The betting markets on election night could be quite volatile if the exit poll puts Labour materially below their polling figures. They could get 33-4% of the vote but still win a huge majority.
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
There was a young lady from Bicester Who was Isabel Oakeshott's kid sister There was a strong rumour That posh Oakeshott Junior Was a wannabe Labourite hipster
While recording for @novaramedia in Chichester I came across groups of teenagers saying they support Nigel Farage and Reform.
One of them, a mixed heritage guy doing his A-levels, said immigrants should be sent back.
A really extraordinary encounter. Watch.
The BBC had a similar experience with a Latvian lady....it broke their group think, they literally said but but but you can't be against immigration, you are one....she wasn't haven't any of it. Obviously she came legally and works like 3 jobs, so wasn't very impressed at the thought of people coming illegally and claiming benefits (that's her take).
You are misrepresenting the BBC clip quite significantly. It was far more nuanced than your caricature.
It was from a Newsnight piece from Peterborough with multiple vox pops from multiple people, both native born and migrant, including asylum seekers.
The whole piece was about the variations and differences expressed by both native Britons and migrants, which covered the entire spectrum of views. The point of it was very much not that all immigrants are alike and that there were many different responses.
Just outside Parca, we find Irena delivering parcels. She’s originally from Latvia and says she works up to 60 hours a week. I jokingly ask what she would do if she were the next prime minister. “I would close the borders!” she says. It’s not the answer we expected.
Irena arrived here 15 years ago, when the UK was part of the EU, and she’s now a British citizen and planning to vote in the general election.
It becomes clear her issue is illegal immigration. “I don't understand why France doesn't close the borders, why they let people risk their lives and cross the channel. If they say the first safe country is OK, why do you pass several safe countries and then England in the end. Why?”
Does she see any conflict between her own journey and her views now? “I'm working. I'm all the time working,” she says, adding that she never asked the state for anything.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Incisive but slightly pompous. My guess is Christopher Hitchens but my mental quote library isn't well furnished.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
Is indeed the correct answer. And I like the way you didn't spell out the whole title. You get a bonus point that could be crucial.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Project Fear.
Or given it's the whinge brigade who'll be going ... the pain drain.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
The point is you want us to be soft and cuddly with a nasty party of racists and bigots and Putin apologists, that somehow found many quite literal fascists as candidates, rather than call them what they are - extremists.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
As for the rest of this tripe, it's the standard 'nasty party of racist bigots' that gets chucked at every right wing party that dares to challenge the prevailing consensus. It's a pathetic spectacle to see an avowed libertarian free marketeer chucking around such terms, but hey, you do you.
I’m calling you out over this.
Farage and Reform are extreme on the majority of people’s political barometer. If you tell yourself that they’re not that says more about you. Stop trying to pretend to us otherwise. It’s a classic tactic of extremists throughout history that they try to make out that they are decent people and not extreme at all.
I only partially agree.
Much of what Reform have been saying for mos of this year has been for at least 50% of the population fairly uncontroversial - immigration is too high, taxes are too high, work is not being rewarded. The sorts of things you'd expect a Conservative opposition party to be saying, and unsurprising given the historically high levels of immigration and tax we currently have. Not likely to win much support in Islington, but not surprising opinions to hear in Surrey or Devon, I would have thought. Well within the Overton window; if that is extremist, much of the country is extremist.
And then Farage came along and inserted himself as leader. Farage isn't to everyone's tastes and certainly not to mine, but until recently I wouldn't have described him as an extremist.
But then: a) Farage was challenged on the Putin issue. He could easily have tacked back to the mainstream on this, but didn't. I'd argue that therefore, yes, he is an extremist on Russia (along with Corbyn and Galloway), and as that is one of the most important issues facing government today, yes, he is an extremist. and b) almost incredibly, Reform candidates appeared to be falling over themselves to join him.
So while I don't think it's the case that having a lot of views which tally with the kinds of themes Reform were pushing is extremist, it does appear to be the case that there are quite a lot of extremists among Reform candidates. Including, perhaps, its current leader.
Once again, I can't help thinking Reform would have been better off sticking with Richard Tice.
Nope. It was Farage that energised them. Their problem, if such it be, is their reliance on his one-man-brand. If something happened to Nige they may just fizzle out. Maybe.
Farage both energises and holds back the populist right. He has a loyal following and an uncanny knack of getting himself into the news. But he is a known quantity and a lot of what people know of him they don’t like.
That’s not to say (worryingly) I think he could never challenge for power, it’s just that I think he makes it less likely. If you look at figures like Meloni, Le Pen, etc, their brand has all been about softening the image of the ‘hard/far/populist/whatever’ right. Their goal (in the case of MLP, one that has been going on for decades at this point) is to get to a place where people say - they’re not scary or extreme anymore, I can give these people a go. Does Nige have that knack? For some, yes. But for an electoral coalition to challenge for power - I’m not quite sure.
A Counterpoint: Wilders in the Netherlands. Very much a known quantity and very much considered on the extreme fringes, but the PVV now doing very well. So perhaps there is hope for Nige.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Project Fear.
Or given it's the whinge brigade who'll be going ... the pain drain.
Its not who are the people claiming they be will be going. The question is the size, wealth and education of those who have already gone. Its at record levels. 250k UK ex-pats in Dubai alone now from basically nothing 10 years ago. And on the whole they are high net worth and / or highly skilled individuals.
The questions are why, what amount of taxation is the UK losing and what policies could make it worse.
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Labour run the risk of letting the Cons through. Hopefully the lack of ground campaign tells and the LDs can secure.
Oxon is a mess. Similar nonsense is going on in Didcot & Wantage where @NickPalmer is refusing to back off. Could let the Tories through the middle there too!!
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Well yes: I think that's inevitable when the LibDems are essentially flat nationally, while Labour is up.
It means there is a fair chance that a fair number of Conservative MPs will be saved by a split opposition. (I'd also note that Reform is only on 3% there. That's quite surprising. And encouraging for them. It suggests they aren't going to suffer too much from Alliance 1983 disease.)
Do we really know where Reform support is?
A constituency forecast popped up on twitter feed which stated that Dan Jarvis's seat (Barnsley Central) was Too Close To Call. Reform at his heels. I don't believe that for a second, but I can believe that their support is highly concentrated in WWC seats and that ultimately if they don't implode they could become a threat to Labour in a way that not even Boris was in his prime. They just don't have the Tory brand baggage. But in traditional Tory middle-class seats - a very low ceiling I would have thought.
I should say that up here - SNP/Tory marginal - Reform are totally non-existent, no-one mentions them, and the Tory vote seems remarkably resilient. No sign of the haemorrhaging elsewhere. They just all hate the SNP so much. The reluctant regard that folk had for Sturgeon in 2019 seems to have gone totally. A different dynamic altogether.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
Is indeed the correct answer. And I like the way you didn't spell out the whole title. You get a bonus point that could be crucial.
I really need to read more Neal Stephenson. I've not even read Cryptonomicon.
I just walked into a bar on the island and the proprietor looked frankly outraged that I, a seeker of beer, expect him, a known seller of beer, in a place which notoriously sells beer, to sell me a beer
Last time I was in France about a year ago I thought I'd got away without any rude occurrences, but on the final day, in Lille, I got shouted at by a man in the street for no apparent reason when he realised I was English.
The betting markets on election night could be quite volatile if the exit poll puts Labour materially below their polling figures. They could get 33-4% of the vote but still win a huge majority.
The Bicester constituency poll is suggestive of a large number of seats being won by fine margins on low shares of the vote.
This is something I've mentioned before. Labour's vote is predicted to be very efficient. But a very efficient vote is very close to being very inefficient.
This could lead to the exit poll, in terms of seat numbers, being unexpectedly inaccurate. Election night could be a real rollercoaster. The result in large numbers of seats could still be in the balance.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
Ordinal numbers can be misleading and the quote is not meaningful unless:
it is accompanied by the absolute number of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the percentage of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the distribution of millionaires that are leaving their native country
It's also ignoring that an awful lot of people who own a half decent house in the South East are paper millionaires.
If you watch the video, this is talking about people who are liquid millionaires without property, not Sid from Essex whose detached house that they paid £5k over 40 years ago for is worth a million quid now and is off to the South of Spain to retire.
Patrick Boyle is a serious person, who lectures at King College London.
Sid comes out of that lot with $1m net liquid investables.
They aren't talking about those people.
Well why do they say they are then? The group they say they are talking about is liquid dollar equivalent millionaires.
I'm a bit worried because I was a bit harsh about Python yesterday and I am not sure which offense is worse...
There are plenty of reasons to be critical of Python.
But there's also a reason (well many reasons) why it is so popular. In particular: chips are cheap and humans are expensive.
Yeah, if you have an OK Computer then Python's fine. If you're Lucky there are No Surprises running Python, unlike C++ it's Just easy to get Everything in Its Right Place and less danger of 2+2=5, even if one is a Scatterbrain or some script KidA.
The real problem with Python, apart from the Deep Satanism of using spaces for structure, is that too many learn it by scripting in it.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
Luxury.
My last job involved working on a 30-year old ERM C++ code base initially written by a self-taught guy and developed organically over the years. It was a complete mess of spaghetti with little discernible encapsulation. Documentation? Tests? Yeah, right. Any change you made to the code would normally cause it to fail somewhere else completely. Strings would be converted from one type to another at least half a dozen times on their progress from creation to display. Running a static code analysis revealed that at least 50% of the code was unreachable.
To add insult to injury, the lead developer didn't believe in whitespace, so everything would be scrunched up as much as the language syntax would allow. Just trying to read the code gave you a headache, let alone understand it. It was no wonder they struggled to retain developers. I managed a year and a half before leaving to preserve my sanity.
Could be worse - the last lot of historic code I was given to maintain (the one I mentioned earlier) had comments that contradicted what the code did
and I'm sure I've told you this before a bug within it where the Stackoverflow fix was written by the developer's mate who at the time was the other person working on the project. The bug (supposedly fixed a year earlier) wasn't fixed and the fix didn't help...
The betting markets on election night could be quite volatile if the exit poll puts Labour materially below their polling figures. They could get 33-4% of the vote but still win a huge majority.
Spotting early results that point to flaws in the exit poll’s ‘votes into seats’ algorithm could also be profitable,
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Well yes: I think that's inevitable when the LibDems are essentially flat nationally, while Labour is up.
It means there is a fair chance that a fair number of Conservative MPs will be saved by a split opposition. (I'd also note that Reform is only on 3% there. That's quite surprising. And encouraging for them. It suggests they aren't going to suffer too much from Alliance 1983 disease.)
Do we really know where Reform support is?
A constituency forecast popped up on twitter feed which stated that Dan Jarvis's seat (Barnsley Central) was Too Close To Call. Reform at his heels. I don't believe that for a second, but I can believe that their support is highly concentrated in WWC seats and that ultimately if they don't implode they could become a threat to Labour in a way that not even Boris was in his prime. They just don't have the Tory brand baggage. But in traditional Tory middle-class seats - a very low ceiling I would have thought.
I should say that up here - SNP/Tory marginal - Reform are totally non-existent, no-one mentions them, and the Tory vote seems remarkably resilient. No sign of the haemorrhaging elsewhere. They just all hate the SNP so much. The reluctant regard that folk had for Sturgeon in 2019 seems to have gone totally. A different dynamic altogether.
I've had a punt on Barnsley south. Brexit were close there last time and it looks just about he right collection of villages outside Barnsley proper to pull a decent Reform haul in to me.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
Is indeed the correct answer. And I like the way you didn't spell out the whole title. You get a bonus point that could be crucial.
A gem of an answer ?
I like the quote attributed to Aristotle - 'It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.'
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
Ordinal numbers can be misleading and the quote is not meaningful unless:
it is accompanied by the absolute number of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the percentage of UK millionaires that are leaving
it is accompanied by the distribution of millionaires that are leaving their native country
It's also ignoring that an awful lot of people who own a half decent house in the South East are paper millionaires.
If you watch the video, this is talking about people who are liquid millionaires without property, not Sid from Essex whose detached house that they paid £5k over 40 years ago for is worth a million quid now and is off to the South of Spain to retire.
Patrick Boyle is a serious person, who lectures at King College London.
Sid comes out of that lot with $1m net liquid investables.
They aren't talking about those people.
Well why do they say they are then? The group they say they are talking about is liquid dollar equivalent millionaires.
I haven't got time to go and look up the citation, but from memory number of millionaires in the UK (including the likes of Sid) are down 6% over the past few years. Which is quite incredible if you think of the house price inflation we have had.
I don't think it bodes ill for Reform. Reform have a lot of favourable people to get through before Farage's unfavourability become an issue. And the controversial nature of Farage and his negative coverage in sections of the press suggests if you're favourable to him, you're very favourable.
I don’t think anti-Reform tactical voting (though eventually it will come about) is likely to be a big feature in this GE either.
I'm quite hopeful it will and that FPTP works its magic at keeping the extremists out of Parliament.
Eight time loser Nigel Farage has a good ring to it, at the risk of coming across all Kevin Keegan, I'd love it if it comes true.
The use of extremists to refer to a party on the right that you happen to dislike is all sorts of pathetic. As well as being foolish - there are plenty of people who would love to label your views on economic issues as 'extremist' and will try it, and you'll have no leg to stand on having done the same thing to Reform, just (as far as I can see) to earn yourself some cringey trendy vicar cool points.
Left or right has nothing to do with it, the use of extremists to refer to any party that are extremists who pander to our enemy in Vladimir Putin is entirely appropriate.
Corbyn was an extremist and panders to Putin. Same with Farage.
I get why you don't see it as extreme, but it is and thankfully approximately three quarters of the country agrees which is not a helpful thing for your extremists under FPTP.
PS I rightly acknowledge that many of my own personal views on topics varying from economics to abolishing planning are considered extreme. I'm OK with that and not ashamed of that. I'd rather be extreme for backing liberalism and letting people do what they want with their own land, than be extreme for hating foreigners apart from Vladimir Putin.
I don't like to resort to personal invective. But your unending capacity to miss the point makes it somewhat of a challenge.
The point is you want us to be soft and cuddly with a nasty party of racists and bigots and Putin apologists, that somehow found many quite literal fascists as candidates, rather than call them what they are - extremists.
No thanks. I prefer honesty, even if it upsets your mores.
As for the rest of this tripe, it's the standard 'nasty party of racist bigots' that gets chucked at every right wing party that dares to challenge the prevailing consensus. It's a pathetic spectacle to see an avowed libertarian free marketeer chucking around such terms, but hey, you do you.
I’m calling you out over this.
Farage and Reform are extreme on the majority of people’s political barometer. If you tell yourself that they’re not that says more about you. Stop trying to pretend to us otherwise. It’s a classic tactic of extremists throughout history that they try to make out that they are decent people and not extreme at all.
I only partially agree.
Much of what Reform have been saying for mos of this year has been for at least 50% of the population fairly uncontroversial - immigration is too high, taxes are too high, work is not being rewarded. The sorts of things you'd expect a Conservative opposition party to be saying, and unsurprising given the historically high levels of immigration and tax we currently have. Not likely to win much support in Islington, but not surprising opinions to hear in Surrey or Devon, I would have thought. Well within the Overton window; if that is extremist, much of the country is extremist.
And then Farage came along and inserted himself as leader. Farage isn't to everyone's tastes and certainly not to mine, but until recently I wouldn't have described him as an extremist.
But then: a) Farage was challenged on the Putin issue. He could easily have tacked back to the mainstream on this, but didn't. I'd argue that therefore, yes, he is an extremist on Russia (along with Corbyn and Galloway), and as that is one of the most important issues facing government today, yes, he is an extremist. and b) almost incredibly, Reform candidates appeared to be falling over themselves to join him.
So while I don't think it's the case that having a lot of views which tally with the kinds of themes Reform were pushing is extremist, it does appear to be the case that there are quite a lot of extremists among Reform candidates. Including, perhaps, its current leader.
Once again, I can't help thinking Reform would have been better off sticking with Richard Tice.
Nope. It was Farage that energised them. Their problem, if such it be, is their reliance on his one-man-brand. If something happened to Nige they may just fizzle out. Maybe.
Farage both energises and holds back the populist right. He has a loyal following and an uncanny knack of getting himself into the news. But he is a known quantity and a lot of what people know of him they don’t like.
That’s not to say (worryingly) I think he could never challenge for power, it’s just that I think he makes it less likely. If you look at figures like Meloni, Le Pen, etc, their brand has all been about softening the image of the ‘hard/far/populist/whatever’ right. Their goal (in the case of MLP, one that has been going on for decades at this point) is to get to a place where people say - they’re not scary or extreme anymore, I can give these people a go. Does Nige have that knack? For some, yes. But for an electoral coalition to challenge for power - I’m not quite sure.
A Counterpoint: Wilders in the Netherlands. Very much a known quantity and very much considered on the extreme fringes, but the PVV now doing very well. So perhaps there is hope for Nige.
Re MLP, that is absolutely correct.
In fact, she's tacked so far to the center, that Zemmour has appeared off her right flank as she's no longer able to attract the hard core anti-semites.
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
Going to miss my bus now because of the degenerate lefties descending on Glastonbury have held up the train in front.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
Stereotyping, naughty and rather out of date.
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
The problem as I have said in the past is that it is ever easier to run businesses in countries you don't even live in, and some countries know this and making it very attractive offers.
I've spent the last couple of weeks eyeing up my options, should my tax bill double. There are some ridiculously cheap ways of leaving the country for example the D7 visa for Portugal only requires a passive income of €705 a month and comes with substantial tax breaks for the first decade of living there.
45% of capital gains taxes are raised on disposals of greater than £5m, so leaving to avoid the difference in a 20% rate (fairly average) vs a 45% rate (one of the highest in the world) makes sense to almost half the tax base currently paying the tax. 20% of £5m is £1m, but 45% of it is £2.25m, and there are places round the world you can pay 0%. Heck, you can pay 0% on the Isle of Man if you're really determined. But Dubai etc will welcome you with open arms.
While there's been no research done on 20% -> 45% HMRC's own forecasts have suggested that a 10% raise in the higher rate (28%) would be net negative to the treasury by £1.1bn in 2025-2026 and negative £2.1bn the year after.
For these reasons I hope Rachel Reeves will be sensible and avoid the calls from within her own party to tax CGT as income. However I suspect with a supermajority, the clarion call to bash the rich will be too great to resist. It will end up harming both the country, and the economy.
“The difference between stupid and intelligent people -- and this is true whether or not they are well-educated -- is that intelligent people can handle subtlety. They are not baffled by ambigous or even contradictory situations -- in fact, they expect them and are apt to become suspicious when things seem overly straightforward.”
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
Must be TSE?
a Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
An apt one for PBers (I had to look up the exact quote) :
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
I need to reread that one.
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
The System of the World is three extremely prolix books which contain within them one excellent one.
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I never made it through to the end of the System of the World!
Via @wethinkpolling, 6-24 Jun. Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. Yum yum
Yikes.
That's fascinating. Not much Labour organisation in the seat at all (though a very keen candidate, Isabel Oakeshott's sister). LibDem posters and leaflets everywhere. And yet the above.
If it's accurate then the Blue Wall starts getting very messy.
Well yes: I think that's inevitable when the LibDems are essentially flat nationally, while Labour is up.
It means there is a fair chance that a fair number of Conservative MPs will be saved by a split opposition. (I'd also note that Reform is only on 3% there. That's quite surprising. And encouraging for them. It suggests they aren't going to suffer too much from Alliance 1983 disease.)
Do we really know where Reform support is?
A constituency forecast popped up on twitter feed which stated that Dan Jarvis's seat (Barnsley Central) was Too Close To Call. Reform at his heels. I don't believe that for a second, but I can believe that their support is highly concentrated in WWC seats and that ultimately if they don't implode they could become a threat to Labour in a way that not even Boris was in his prime. They just don't have the Tory brand baggage. But in traditional Tory middle-class seats - a very low ceiling I would have thought.
I should say that up here - SNP/Tory marginal - Reform are totally non-existent, no-one mentions them, and the Tory vote seems remarkably resilient. No sign of the haemorrhaging elsewhere. They just all hate the SNP so much. The reluctant regard that folk had for Sturgeon in 2019 seems to have gone totally. A different dynamic altogether.
I've had a punt on Barnsley south. Brexit were close there last time and it looks just about he right collection of villages outside Barnsley proper to pull a decent Reform haul in to me.
Comments
Which is interesting.
Roll on the F16s.
It means there is a fair chance that a fair number of Conservative MPs will be saved by a split opposition. (I'd also note that Reform is only on 3% there. That's quite surprising. And encouraging for them. It suggests they aren't going to suffer too much from Alliance 1983 disease.)
Anyone who doesn’t hold the right views is obviously a Fascist Gammon White Man.
Tories, on the one hand, threatened on two fronts, on the other in with a shout of defending about the 200th safest seat. Reform nowhere compared to MRPs - does this mean their vote is clumpy and wins seats? Or non existant? Big Lab gain in a non target seat - anti gov vote like the pre election polling? LDs can win but not a big vote gain showing, is there a cap on their ambitions?? 18.5% swing.
Thrilling stuff
https://x.com/aimendean/status/1806266093457023061?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
This is our tax base disappearing. This is a catastrophe - and I very much doubt that Labour will fix it
And of course all the lefties on here will yelp: “let them go we don’t need them”. Or the alternative: “no they won’t go. They’re lying” even as they go
Ask how I know.
Hopefully the lack of ground campaign tells and the LDs can secure.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6DSENMFVmg&
Who would have thought high taxes, end to non-dom status, high levels of shitty crime in London etc would be a turn off.
The problem as I have said in the past is that it is ever easier to run businesses in countries you don't even live in, and some countries know this and making it very attractive offers.
Or is it just truthy?
I am myself - if not a tax exile - an opportunity exile.
If another quant gives me a stream of consciousness python app, complete with no testing and no discernible comments or useful variable/function names… then when it break in production, asks why they can’t just put their latest version straight there without testing….
Hard to feel massive sympathy, but one imagines they generate a decent contribution to the overall economy.
They are, by definition, rootless.
Its a really tricky problem. How to capture those taking the piss, while not making it so oppressive that those with wealth just leave.
Same as turn-over taxes are absolutely terrible for businesses that are small and trying to grow, but large businesses can play the globalised game and too easily escape taxes on profits. Squaring that circle is really tricky.
This guy makes lots of interest points and some sensible ideas.
if I was in Government, I'd do this for Business...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQKzSeM6zB0
Much of what Reform have been saying for mos of this year has been for at least 50% of the population fairly uncontroversial - immigration is too high, taxes are too high, work is not being rewarded. The sorts of things you'd expect a Conservative opposition party to be saying, and unsurprising given the historically high levels of immigration and tax we currently have. Not likely to win much support in Islington, but not surprising opinions to hear in Surrey or Devon, I would have thought. Well within the Overton window; if that is extremist, much of the country is extremist.
And then Farage came along and inserted himself as leader. Farage isn't to everyone's tastes and certainly not to mine, but until recently I wouldn't have described him as an extremist.
But then:
a) Farage was challenged on the Putin issue. He could easily have tacked back to the mainstream on this, but didn't. I'd argue that therefore, yes, he is an extremist on Russia (along with Corbyn and Galloway), and as that is one of the most important issues facing government today, yes, he is an extremist.
and b) almost incredibly, Reform candidates appeared to be falling over themselves to join him.
So while I don't think it's the case that having a lot of views which tally with the kinds of themes Reform were pushing is extremist, it does appear to be the case that there are quite a lot of extremists among Reform candidates. Including, perhaps, its current leader.
Once again, I can't help thinking Reform would have been better off sticking with Richard Tice.
Southend West…… must have a strong Reform and/or LibDem challenge.
Now you can do that - but it's really not recommended and hasn't been for over 12 years...
I finally shut him up by pointing at that for the system to be certifiable it would need a full manual regression test for ever release where were things done correctly it's test the changes and spot checks elsewhere..
Patrick Boyle is a serious person, who lectures at King College London.
Can't believe it took Python so long to introduce a bloody case statement though.
when you have external parameter names of Variable and internal names of variable a single case is fine to find..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVm7eghNx3E
It was from a Newsnight piece from Peterborough with multiple vox pops from multiple people, both native born and migrant, including asylum seekers.
The whole piece was about the variations and differences expressed by both native Britons and migrants, which covered the entire spectrum of views. The point of it was very much not that all immigrants are alike and that there were many different responses.
Irena arrived here 15 years ago, when the UK was part of the EU, and she’s now a British citizen and planning to vote in the general election.
It becomes clear her issue is illegal immigration. “I don't understand why France doesn't close the borders, why they let people risk their lives and cross the channel. If they say the first safe country is OK, why do you pass several safe countries and then England in the end. Why?”
Does she see any conflict between her own journey and her views now? “I'm working. I'm all the time working,” she says, adding that she never asked the state for anything.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw00yg9z0dgo
How is that mispresenting?
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1806296595060707464
No Googling. And there are several PBers I expect to get it without difficulty.
My last job involved working on a 30-year old ERM C++ code base initially written by a self-taught guy and developed organically over the years. It was a complete mess of spaghetti with little discernible encapsulation. Documentation? Tests? Yeah, right. Any change you made to the code would normally cause it to fail somewhere else completely. Strings would be converted from one type to another at least half a dozen times on their progress from creation to display. Running a static code analysis revealed that at least 50% of the code was unreachable.
To add insult to injury, the lead developer didn't believe in whitespace, so everything would be scrunched up as much as the language syntax would allow. Just trying to read the code gave you a headache, let alone understand it. It was no wonder they struggled to retain developers. I managed a year and a half before leaving to preserve my sanity.
EDIT after looking up the answer: Ah, interesting. Not someone whose work I've encountered much.
Who was Isabel Oakeshott's kid sister
There was a strong rumour
That posh Oakeshott Junior
Was a wannabe Labourite hipster
If it's any help, it's from a work of fiction,
That’s not to say (worryingly) I think he could never challenge for power, it’s just that I think he makes it less likely. If you look at figures like Meloni, Le Pen, etc, their brand has all been about softening the image of the ‘hard/far/populist/whatever’ right. Their goal (in the case of MLP, one that has been going on for decades at this point) is to get to a place where people say - they’re not scary or extreme anymore, I can give these people a go. Does Nige have that knack? For some, yes. But for an electoral coalition to challenge for power - I’m not quite sure.
A Counterpoint: Wilders in the Netherlands. Very much a known quantity and very much considered on the extreme fringes, but the PVV now doing very well. So perhaps there is hope for Nige.
The questions are why, what amount of taxation is the UK losing and what policies could make it worse.
"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
A constituency forecast popped up on twitter feed which stated that Dan Jarvis's seat (Barnsley Central) was Too Close To Call. Reform at his heels. I don't believe that for a second, but I can believe that their support is highly concentrated in WWC seats and that ultimately if they don't implode they could become a threat to Labour in a way that not even Boris was in his prime. They just don't have the Tory brand baggage. But in traditional Tory middle-class seats - a very low ceiling I would have thought.
I should say that up here - SNP/Tory marginal - Reform are totally non-existent, no-one mentions them, and the Tory vote seems remarkably resilient. No sign of the haemorrhaging elsewhere. They just all hate the SNP so much. The reluctant regard that folk had for Sturgeon in 2019 seems to have gone totally. A different dynamic altogether.
This is something I've mentioned before. Labour's vote is predicted to be very efficient. But a very efficient vote is very close to being very inefficient.
This could lead to the exit poll, in terms of seat numbers, being unexpectedly inaccurate. Election night could be a real rollercoaster. The result in large numbers of seats could still be in the balance.
and I'm sure I've told you this before a bug within it where the Stackoverflow fix was written by the developer's mate who at the time was the other person working on the project. The bug (supposedly fixed a year earlier) wasn't fixed and the fix didn't help...
I like the quote attributed to Aristotle - 'It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.'
Two of my very best friends both have Stephenson books as their all time favourites: one loves Cryptonomicon and the other is a massive fan of The System of the World series.
While I love Stephenson, I'm more of a Christopher Brookmyre fan: particularly the first two Angelique de Xavier books which I must have read a dozen times apiece.
We need 15 minute cities. With big walls and exit visas to get out. Oh yes.
The state pension is worth £250k at current annuity rates all by itself, although people tend to omit this from their “personal” wealth.
In fact, she's tacked so far to the center, that Zemmour has appeared off her right flank as she's no longer able to attract the hard core anti-semites.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/confused-voter-says-wont-vote-33118960
“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.
“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.
“‘We’re taxing non-doms, not condoms,’ I said. ‘Oh,’ he said. ‘Like the prime minister’s wife? Ah.’ He calls out: ‘Margaret: they’re taxing non-doms, not condoms.’”
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/27/were-taxing-non-doms-not-condoms-labour-strives-to-reconnect-with-disengaged-voters
The problem is you have to read the whole damn thing to find the good bits.
Cryptonomicon was fun though.
I see a regular comment pattern on here where someone will disregard recent polling, and say “I think it will be more like LAB 400 CON 150 LIB 50…” - followed by another poster agreeing and saying “Yeah, that feels more right”
Of course, the above scenario is possible.
However, isn’t a lot of this thinking based on people wanting to stay within their instinctive comfort zone?
Rather than making a call based on evidence, is it not making one based on the assumption that large swings cannot happen, because they usually tend not to?
But if this is the year when a large swing does happen, then is that past cautiousness worth much at all?
If you were sent back in a Time Machine to the 1931 election, and had some kind of magic MRP data in your possession, would you also say that MacDonald’s National Government was heading for a comparatively smaller majority, simply because the swing would be smaller?
Now, absolutely fair enough if you want to say “I think X% of Reform voters will actually vote Tory on the day” or “I think Y% of Labour voters won’t turn up” or “I think this pollster’s methodology is more reliable, and they show a smaller Labour majority.”
But if you just think it will be a smaller majority simply because that *feels* more right - then is there any evidence that would make you change your mind, beyond seeing the actual exit poll / final result?
An interesting thought exercise to be had. And to be clear I am sympathetic to the idea that the Tories may do slightly better than the extinction projections.
Labour leads the Conservatives by 23%.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (26-27 June):
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 19% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 21-24 June
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
The morning of the Brexit result loud cheers broke out in various parts of the fields - perfectly true I can assure you. Partly given the price of the tickets now, it’s really no longer an epicentre of leftism.
45% of capital gains taxes are raised on disposals of greater than £5m, so leaving to avoid the difference in a 20% rate (fairly average) vs a 45% rate (one of the highest in the world) makes sense to almost half the tax base currently paying the tax. 20% of £5m is £1m, but 45% of it is £2.25m, and there are places round the world you can pay 0%. Heck, you can pay 0% on the Isle of Man if you're really determined. But Dubai etc will welcome you with open arms.
While there's been no research done on 20% -> 45% HMRC's own forecasts have suggested that a 10% raise in the higher rate (28%) would be net negative to the treasury by £1.1bn in 2025-2026 and negative £2.1bn the year after.
For these reasons I hope Rachel Reeves will be sensible and avoid the calls from within her own party to tax CGT as income. However I suspect with a supermajority, the clarion call to bash the rich will be too great to resist. It will end up harming both the country, and the economy.