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Let’s talk about gender politics – politicalbetting.com

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,861
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    New political questionnaire Klaxon. This one’s actually quite good and more sophisticated than the fun but rudimentary war compass one yesterday.

    https://votecompass.uk/

    I’m close to where I thought I’d be, a little bit further right economically than expected.


    Interesting, thanks - nice to do a more UK-focused compass. On the US one I come out as a raving left-winger! :open_mouth:

    I'm quite close to you, but apparently slightly more left and less progressive - slap bang on the economic centre line and 2/3 the way up the first square above the centre line on the progressive axis.

    Tactical Lab vote from me this election (not that it's likely needed) but puts me very close to the LD position. Pretty much where I would have put myself (although maybe I'd say slightly more progressive - I think that's because I didn't give very strong responses to many questions) if I was just pointing at the chart without doing the questions.

    ETA: As they have positioned the parties based on stated policies, it would be fascinating to see their party positioning on this over past elections and the position of the winning party.
    I'm right in the middle.

    Obviously indecisive !
    Also right in the middle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    How does this stuff go out of date so quickly?

    Is is just a paperwork thing or is there actual degradation of the material?

    I'd have taken a few gowns for painting the ceiling etc etc.
    Most of it is plastic surely? Lasts years and years as the world's oceans can testify!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145

    The top left quadrant is definitely where the cool kids are.

    Suppose I could vote Green - shouldn’t make a difference to Yvette Cooper despite Reform - but not sure if I’m ready to make that leap. Am I really that sickeningly right-on and, dare I say it, woke? It seems I am…


    This doesn't look correct to me.

    Reform are not coherent on economic policy but they are not further right than the Tories.

    The gap between Labour and Tories is bigger on social issues than economic ones.

    The median social view is not significantly more progressive than Labour.

  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121

    Well done Rishi, well done. That was absolutely the right way to play the issue. Take days and days of pain, send out ministers to fill the airways to defend the indefensible. Stick yourself to an absurd line ("I'm very angry") whilst not actually acting like you believe it.

    And then finally cave in and do what you needed to do at the start.

    That's his standard operating procedure surely?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    True but it would have been better to give it away than destroy it.
    A disposable plastic mask takes around 450 years to degrade outdoors; and it's not quite the same but my daughter's neoprene swim jacket has an expiration date of 2123 (Yes a hundred years) on the label after which it should be destroyed. Child car seats also have an expiration - but that's because they'll have been in use.
    Gowns, face-masks and so forth sealed up and away from sunlight, I have no idea how the expiration is seemingly so short. I'd have thought they would be in practicality good for at least a couple of decades.
    Is this an example of a likely <1% efficacy degradation being "too much" ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    Chris Cook
    @xtophercook
    Labour diverts activists away from Lib Dem target seats

    https://x.com/xtophercook/status/1805452516080918596
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    The top left quadrant is definitely where the cool kids are.

    Suppose I could vote Green - shouldn’t make a difference to Yvette Cooper despite Reform - but not sure if I’m ready to make that leap. Am I really that sickeningly right-on and, dare I say it, woke? It seems I am…


    This doesn't look correct to me.

    Reform are not coherent on economic policy but they are not further right than the Tories.

    The gap between Labour and Tories is bigger on social issues than economic ones.

    The median social view is not significantly more progressive than Labour.

    I agree. Labour should be Economically right next to the Tories. Rachel Reeves is going to make George Osborne look like Santa Claus.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,721

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    How does this stuff go out of date so quickly?

    Is is just a paperwork thing or is there actual degradation of the material?

    I'd have taken a few gowns for painting the ceiling etc etc.
    Most of it is plastic surely? Lasts years and years as the world's oceans can testify!
    Exactly. Perhaps it is just the sterility?

    It seems so wasteful.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,882

    Of the list before, I think 'appeasement tankie' is probably closest to my own tankie views, but it didn't go into much detail so I'm not sure. I am basically of the mind that the UK should give no more than moral, financial (with strict limits) refugee, and at most naval support to sides in territorial conflicts on the continent. Really I am an 18th century radical patriot tankie.

    3 hours late to the game, but I was looking back at the Tankie discussion earlier.

    The problem with that attitude is that the United Kingdom cannot sit in Splendid Isolation (TM) anymore, and certainly can't rely on our much diminished navy. To be fair, even if our navy was 10 times the size, ICBMs can just ignore HMS Thunder Child anyway.

    Russia under Putin (and indeed under most leaders) has and is a threat to the world.

    It's also quite telling, when I was reading Kle4 comments about tankies, how often you can find tankies in almost every country in the world, except one. They seem rather thin on the ground in Russia itself......
    Wonder why.....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    O/T As widely predicted:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/24/number-of-people-crossing-channel-in-small-boats-hits-new-high

    Could this be the real reason Sunak daren't delay the GE further?

    We have to start towing them back to France, if no one is prepared to do Rwanda
    Sorry, cannot accept that. I am not happy clappy, all people are legal, welcome them all in, open borders, like many in Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens are but you cannot risk a single persons life by doing that.

    You also have to have a proper process to allow people to apply to come here rather than risk their lives on boats and then just turn up and disappear into the black economy.
    Stop being such a flake

    Their lives are already being risked. They drown quite regularly. And hundreds drown in the Med

    If we tow them back they will stop coming so in the end you will save many more lives than might be lost. You just have to be quite ruthless at first

    Also, this is inevitable. In the end if you don’t do this voters will elect fascists that will do much much worse than this. See the recent European elex
    Don't you have a contradiction there. You say hundreds drown already. You also say they will stop coming if we tow them back so the extra risk of drowning will in the end save lives as it will stop them coming.

    Why will it stop them coming if they risk drowning already? They will still come in a hope of not being caught.

    Re you last sentence that is a genuine worry I agree.
    Because they won’t risk drowning if they know there is a 100% chance they will simply be towed back to France
    This is the canard that the right keeps repeating - "They won't risk it if they know [they'll be sent to Rwanda/towed back/made to read the Spectator]" (delete as appropriate).

    There's no evidence set out that the migrants would either know about such policies or care even if they did. Like any criminal who boasts they will get away with it, the smugglers will claim a secure route to take their money. You're just making assertions with no evidence.
    There is no reason why the British will be immune to the rightwards surge across the western world. We are NOT exceptional, merely behind the curve
    Actually I think we are ahead of the curve.

    We had our spleen venting moment in 2016. We did the Brexit. We got it out of our system.

    And now we regret it and we’re turning Centre-Left, and how.

    We are 10 years ahead of the rest of western Europe. Britain often has been ahead of the pack and it’s good to see. We will NOT succumb to the far right, however much you’d like it not to be the case.
    perhaps @Leon hopes we will be goosestepping with Farage and sucking up to Putin in ten years. Putin; a man Farage, when heavily pushed, uncomfortably described as "a bad man" which is how I might describe a local spiv, whereas most decent people, unlike Farage, would describe Putin for what he is; a murderous psychopathic despot. This is the person that Farage sees as a person he admires.
  • lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 59

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    lockhimup said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
    Only one has a of winning
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350
    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    I hope he fails on both fronts. The man is an absolute traitorous cnut.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,074
    lockhimup said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
    Seems unlikely the Conservatives were going to win either of these seats, though, so slightly academic. I don't think there's a world in which the Lib Dems are close to overtaking the Cons in terms of seats but also that the Cons hold Cardiff West and/or Bristol North West.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    That's not my point - rather that 'grasping the nettle' isn't going to be particularly effective at drawing any kind of line under this if stories continue to emerge.

    I already know what I think of the party; I'm more interested in the continuing electoral effects.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Cookie said:

    lockhimup said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
    Seems unlikely the Conservatives were going to win either of these seats, though, so slightly academic. I don't think there's a world in which the Lib Dems are close to overtaking the Cons in terms of seats but also that the Cons hold Cardiff West and/or Bristol North West.
    Williams is standing in Montgomeryshire
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited June 25

    Chris Cook
    @xtophercook
    Labour diverts activists away from Lib Dem target seats

    https://x.com/xtophercook/status/1805452516080918596

    What were they doing there in the first place?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    lockhimup said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
    And rishi could further humiliate himself by restoring the whip to overtake the LDs
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    We are due another YouGov today, right?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    lockhimup said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
    Good point, just don't mention it to any Tory MPs near a high street bookies.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    Well said
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    We are due another YouGov today, right?

    Depends on whether they are updating the MRP this week. If not, tonight at 5 is the usual Sky YG
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    Well done Rishi, well done. That was absolutely the right way to play the issue. Take days and days of pain, send out ministers to fill the airways to defend the indefensible. Stick yourself to an absurd line ("I'm very angry") whilst not actually acting like you believe it.

    And then finally cave in and do what you needed to do at the start.

    The hit from the suspensions, and the hit from taking too long to get there.

    It’s just insane.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    That's not my point - rather that 'grasping the nettle' isn't going to be particularly effective at drawing any kind of line under this if stories continue to emerge.

    I already know what I think of the party; I'm more interested in the continuing electoral effects.
    Bizarrely I think this scandal probably costs them fewer votes than having Rishi front and centre, whether enthusiastically talking about his record or weirdly attacking Labour in a manner that just reminds us all of his record.
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    People perhaps who unlike yourself havent done well from the last 14 years of printing money and mass immigration. Maybe they dont have the money to insulate themselves from the problems like you do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    ..The responses reveal that of the 2.02 billion items of PPE provided by Full Support, only 232 million items have been dispatched to the NHS or other care settings...

    The surplus was vast.
    And that's from one relatively reputable supplier.

    Why then did they need to buy from dodgier outfits like the Mone venture ?
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    TudorRose said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Tories suspend candidates in betting scandal!

    https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/1805535245590003850?s=46

    Another gift for Starmer ahead of the final debate…

    Always too little too late. #zeroseats
    Betting question; if a candidate is elected but has been suspended from their party (these are not the only cases) do they count as (in this case) Conservative or Independent?
    Depends on the context:
    - Definition of this must surely be in the T&Cs of any bet you made. Surely?
    - Were the Tories close to getting a similar number seats to Labour, suspendees wouldn't count as Tory when the Palace adds up the totals and calls the "winner" to come and discussing moving-in arrangements
    - If numbers on either side were similar and there were a motion of confidence in HMG, then the issue would be how the suspendees voted, not which label they'd be entitled to claim
    - Local Tory parties wouldn't be allowed to use Tory resources to support a suspendee as long as they remained suspended. If there were still a Tory party, of course.

    And all of this presupposes the suspendees get into Parliament. Which will be, at least marginally, less likely if not even the Tory party will touch them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    He’s more of an anti-Mosley when it comes to European integration though.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    True but it would have been better to give it away than destroy it.
    A disposable plastic mask takes around 450 years to degrade outdoors; and it's not quite the same but my daughter's neoprene swim jacket has an expiration date of 2123 (Yes a hundred years) on the label after which it should be destroyed. Child car seats also have an expiration - but that's because they'll have been in use.
    Gowns, face-masks and so forth sealed up and away from sunlight, I have no idea how the expiration is seemingly so short. I'd have thought they would be in practicality good for at least a couple of decades.
    Is this an example of a likely sub 1% efficacy degradation being "too much" ?
    We can't know that about the 450 years. Quite a few human generations, and a lot more for microbes to evolve to eat the things
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    ..The responses reveal that of the 2.02 billion items of PPE provided by Full Support, only 232 million items have been dispatched to the NHS or other care settings...

    The surplus was vast.
    And that's from one relatively reputable supplier.

    Why then did they need to buy from dodgier outfits like the Mone venture ?
    Perhaps there was vast uncertainty about amounts we could get, and the amounts we would need?

    Remember, Labour MPs were standing up in the Commons and asking why the government were not using certain suppliers of PPE; some of whom seemed rather dodgy themselves. How quickly they forget...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Heathener said:

    TimS said:

    The drift to the Left of women over the last 10-15 years, particularly Millennials and GenZ, is one of the most fascinating political trends there is.

    The theory that makes most sense to me is that women are on the whole more cautious, risk averse and therefore small-c conservative than men.

    When conservatism was about caution and the left was about radical change, women were therefore more conservative in voting patterns than men. Now most of the risk taking and radicalism is on the right the equation has changed.

    Since much of it is entirely performative and achieves nothing except pitching one group against each other the best thing to do is stop talking about it and focus on core economics and social issues that affect everyone.

    To quote @Leon, we rarely agree but on this we do.

    Absolutely spot on.
    Agreeing with yourself now, first sign of madness
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568

    My irony meter just died.

    Tommy Robinson arrested in Canada for ‘immigration offences’

    Video shows 41-year-old far-Right activist being handcuffed by two plain-clothed police officers


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/25/tommy-robinson-arrested-canada-suspected-immigration/

    My cliche-o-matic mega-cringe-dowsing twig just exploded all over a Breton crepe at the 9 trillionth use by a PB centrist dad of the phrase “irony meter”
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,389
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    O/T As widely predicted:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/24/number-of-people-crossing-channel-in-small-boats-hits-new-high

    Could this be the real reason Sunak daren't delay the GE further?

    We have to start towing them back to France, if no one is prepared to do Rwanda
    Sorry, cannot accept that. I am not happy clappy, all people are legal, welcome them all in, open borders, like many in Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens are but you cannot risk a single persons life by doing that.

    You also have to have a proper process to allow people to apply to come here rather than risk their lives on boats and then just turn up and disappear into the black economy.
    Stop being such a flake

    Their lives are already being risked. They drown quite regularly. And hundreds drown in the Med

    If we tow them back they will stop coming so in the end you will save many more lives than might be lost. You just have to be quite ruthless at first

    Also, this is inevitable. In the end if you don’t do this voters will elect fascists that will do much much worse than this. See the recent European elex
    Don't you have a contradiction there. You say hundreds drown already. You also say they will stop coming if we tow them back so the extra risk of drowning will in the end save lives as it will stop them coming.

    Why will it stop them coming if they risk drowning already? They will still come in a hope of not being caught.

    Re you last sentence that is a genuine worry I agree.
    Because they won’t risk drowning if they know there is a 100% chance they will simply be towed back to France
    This is the canard that the right keeps repeating - "They won't risk it if they know [they'll be sent to Rwanda/towed back/made to read the Spectator]" (delete as appropriate).

    There's no evidence set out that the migrants would either know about such policies or care even if they did. Like any criminal who boasts they will get away with it, the smugglers will claim a secure route to take their money. You're just making assertions with no evidence.
    1. Logic

    2. Australia

    But I tell you what, you just keep doing what you’re doing and then in the end the British will elect somebody much nastier than nigel Farage to get this done. See Europe passim

    I won’t be pleased - I’d far rather we weren’t governed by the extreme right - but I’m right wing so I’ll probably cope. I imagine it will be much less pleasant for you

    There is no reason why the British will be immune to the rightwards surge across the western world. We are NOT exceptional, merely behind the curve
    What rightwards surge across the world?

    We aren't a European PR-based country.

    Looking at comparable Common Law countries using the Westminster system, I see no rightwards surge to the extreme right.

    In Canada, Trudeau looks like losing to the Conservatives, but its regular pendulum swings and time for a change, not the extreme right taking charge.

    In Australia, the extreme right One Nation Party is still an insignificant dot in its polling and its the Liberal/National Coalition that represents the right as it has done for the past century.

    You are seeing what you want to see.
    I'm still struggling with this anachronistic use of terms "left" and "right". Trying to use 20th century political labelling to describe 21st century political movements and ideologies is ridiculous. The battle of the individual versus the State which was much of the 20th century has evolved with technology - we are more individual and yet the mechanisms to manage and control that unprecdented access to information are legion.

    Even terms like "conservative", "socialist", "liberal" and "social democrat" don't have the meaning they once did. "Green" for example has had its meaning so distorted as to be worthless as a political term.

    How then do we define politics in the 21st century?...
    You group people into groups dependent on who they vote with and associate with. I wrote an article about this.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/07/classification/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    True but it would have been better to give it away than destroy it.
    That is a problem for NHS procurement, not the company that supplied it, but who would they "give it away" to? Bart's answer covers the issue correctly.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,366
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    ..The responses reveal that of the 2.02 billion items of PPE provided by Full Support, only 232 million items have been dispatched to the NHS or other care settings...

    The surplus was vast.
    And that's from one relatively reputable supplier.

    Why then did they need to buy from dodgier outfits like the Mone venture ?
    Because people were complaining that there was a big shortage of PPE perhaps?

    If you're worried about a shortage, people tend to then overcompensate.

    Speaking at the time, external, Mrs Stoute said volumes of their product, shipped from China, increased from “eight sea freight containers every month to 800”.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Leon said:

    My irony meter just died.

    Tommy Robinson arrested in Canada for ‘immigration offences’

    Video shows 41-year-old far-Right activist being handcuffed by two plain-clothed police officers


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/25/tommy-robinson-arrested-canada-suspected-immigration/

    My cliche-o-matic mega-cringe-dowsing twig just exploded all over a Breton crepe at the 9 trillionth use by a PB centrist dad of the phrase “irony meter”
    Irony meter is sooo noom.
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    stodge said:

    Just seen this on X. Is something happening out there.

    Out there on X?

    Yes, X is very out there.

    Twitter and Britain are not the same thing, as true today as it was when Cameron said it in 2015.

    Back in the real world of the UK, the election result is going to see ~0 Reform MPs elected, not hundreds and PM Farage. 🤦‍♂️
    Neil Kinnock got huge cheering crowds in 1987 and 1992 for all the good it did him.
    It also got him millions of votes. If farage got a kinnock type vote he would be the official opposition.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,335
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    How does this stuff go out of date so quickly?

    Is is just a paperwork thing or is there actual degradation of the material?

    I'd have taken a few gowns for painting the ceiling etc etc.
    Most of it is plastic surely? Lasts years and years as the world's oceans can testify!
    Exactly. Perhaps it is just the sterility?

    It seems so wasteful.
    My guess is it'll be a very conservative estimate from the manufacturer (Why guarantee for longer than you absolutely must) which has no basis in science and is taken as a statement of manufacturing fact by the NHS because noone higher up the chain has the stones to say "Lets take a thousand gowns and gloves out every year from the stockpile and test for degradation instead of going on manufacturer's overcautious estimates". Obviously if something goes wrong we have no recourse to the manufacturer since it's all out of warranty but the NHS is big enough to internalise the lack of warranty for the sake of not destroying perfectly good PPE.
    That would require someone to take responsibility & as Malmesbury has made clear to us in the past, the main purpose of management in many organisations is to avoid taking responsibility for anything ever.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,074
    edited June 25
    This is my diagram - the fact that I am unenthusiastic about the Conservative Party shows the depths of their issues this election:



    Basically while I have problems with the Con position on dozens of issues (e.g. HS2), on a macro scale the Conservatives are roughly in the right place. For me, they don't need to be tacking right or tacking left. They need to be where they are, but much more competent.
    I would argue that the country has drifted leftwards, and that that is a result of an incompetent centre-right government who due to their incompetence are not able to do centre right things (again - on a macro scale: I concede that there are many examples of the Conservatives in fact doing the right thing, e.g. Ukraine.)

    I think we possibly have unrealistic expectations of the extent to which a party can represent our views. I landed pretty much bang on Con, though with only a 67% agreement with them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    True but it would have been better to give it away than destroy it.
    A disposable plastic mask takes around 450 years to degrade outdoors; and it's not quite the same but my daughter's neoprene swim jacket has an expiration date of 2123 (Yes a hundred years) on the label after which it should be destroyed. Child car seats also have an expiration - but that's because they'll have been in use.
    Gowns, face-masks and so forth sealed up and away from sunlight, I have no idea how the expiration is seemingly so short. I'd have thought they would be in practicality good for at least a couple of decades.
    Is this an example of a likely sub 1% efficacy degradation being "too much" ?
    We can't know that about the 450 years. Quite a few human generations, and a lot more for microbes to evolve to eat the things
    Yes but that's 450 years in the wild, probably most of it in the oceans. It's a very different environment from being sealed in a box in a warehouse next to say Junction 15 of the M1.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    lockhimup said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
    Good point, just don't mention it to any Tory MPs near a high street bookies.
    Or of course if they weren't elected at all! For Craig Williams, this must be a fairly fatal blow to his hopes of re-election in what was a tight race.

    (I'm a bit surprised to see Lab so clearly second there and LDs apparently not in contention, despite* Lembit Opik serving two-thirds of the area for several years)

    (*yeah, yeah.. or maybe because)
  • I often think it's comical – Fal, lal, la!
    How Nature always does contrive – Fal, lal, la!
    That every boy and every gal
    That’s born into the world alive
    Is either a little Liberal
    Or else a little Conservative!
    Fal, lal, la!

    Twas ever this and twill ever be thus. The fact (nearly) every politigal group has differing proportions of the two does not make it any the less true.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    ..The responses reveal that of the 2.02 billion items of PPE provided by Full Support, only 232 million items have been dispatched to the NHS or other care settings...

    The surplus was vast.
    And that's from one relatively reputable supplier.

    Why then did they need to buy from dodgier outfits like the Mone venture ?
    Perhaps there was vast uncertainty about amounts we could get, and the amounts we would need?

    Remember, Labour MPs were standing up in the Commons and asking why the government were not using certain suppliers of PPE; some of whom seemed rather dodgy themselves. How quickly they forget...
    There is continuing uncertainty about the detail of government contracts with PPE suppliers, because it's all hidden behind "commercial confidentiality".

    Based on the evidence which has emerged despite this official omertà, incompetence and grift seem every bit as likely an explanation.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 25

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
  • stodge said:

    Just seen this on X. Is something happening out there.

    Out there on X?

    Yes, X is very out there.

    Twitter and Britain are not the same thing, as true today as it was when Cameron said it in 2015.

    Back in the real world of the UK, the election result is going to see ~0 Reform MPs elected, not hundreds and PM Farage. 🤦‍♂️
    Neil Kinnock got huge cheering crowds in 1987 and 1992 for all the good it did him.
    It also got him millions of votes. If farage got a kinnock type vote he would be the official opposition.
    Corbyn is a better comparison and a more recent one. Could get millions of avid voters and be Leader of the Opposition but never stood a chance of making it to No 10
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177

    Leon said:

    My irony meter just died.

    Tommy Robinson arrested in Canada for ‘immigration offences’

    Video shows 41-year-old far-Right activist being handcuffed by two plain-clothed police officers


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/25/tommy-robinson-arrested-canada-suspected-immigration/

    My cliche-o-matic mega-cringe-dowsing twig just exploded all over a Breton crepe at the 9 trillionth use by a PB centrist dad of the phrase “irony meter”
    Irony meter is sooo noom.
    Sorry, noom is now a fash-curious dad cliche.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,366
    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    Yes, we are an outward looking, exceptional, global facing nation.

    Not a narrow-minded, parochial, mundane, European one.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 25

    My irony meter just died.

    Tommy Robinson arrested in Canada for ‘immigration offences’

    Leon said:

    My irony meter just died.

    Tommy Robinson arrested in Canada for ‘immigration offences’

    Video shows 41-year-old far-Right activist being handcuffed by two plain-clothed police officers


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/25/tommy-robinson-arrested-canada-suspected-immigration/

    My cliche-o-matic mega-cringe-dowsing twig just exploded all over a Breton crepe at the 9 trillionth use by a PB centrist dad of the phrase “irony meter”
    I guess you, an anti-migration migrant, find 'irony meter' a bit too close to the mark ...
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    You may love it but you don't understand it if you think Farage is "posh."
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    You may love it but you don't understand it if you think Farage is "posh."
    Educated at Dulwich College so yeah
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    Lock them all up and we can have an inquiry in 2039 to see which ones didn't do anything wrong.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,778

    lockhimup said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories suspend the gamblers

    The named gamblers.
    To be fair, would they even know the unnamed gamblers? Possibly informed by the GC but might not have happened yet, or might not happen at all.
    Could this have any implications for which party is the official opposition?
    If its close between Con and LD, taking the whip away from a couple of bettors who were elected could hand LOTO to Davey.
    Good point, just don't mention it to any Tory MPs near a high street bookies.
    They will have placed their bets before the official announcement.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Thanks Barty, I will never be able to remove the image of Farage suckling at a teet from my mind...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    eek said:

    I will post today's image now ready for 8:15 tonight when I will quote it.


    Funny, but sadly not correct. The best coach will pick a team to play how he wants, and that won't be the best 11 players he has. We spent years trying to shoehorn Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard into the same team and it didn't work. We are trying to do the same thing with the best player in Europe (Bellingham) and his understudy (Foden). I love Foden, he's great at Man City, although sometimes I wonder if you took almost any player and stick them with 10 other City players whether they would also look good.
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    You may love it but you don't understand it if you think Farage is "posh."
    Educated at Dulwich College so yeah
    Compared to the likes of Cameron he might as well be the help.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    You may love it but you don't understand it if you think Farage is "posh."
    Educated at Dulwich College so yeah
    Compared to the likes of Cameron he might as well be the help.
    That of course is true. And indeed Mosley himself.

    Nevertheless I’ll stick with it, thanks. He went to Dulwich College and is no working class bloke. It’s all a national front.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    O/T As widely predicted:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/24/number-of-people-crossing-channel-in-small-boats-hits-new-high

    Could this be the real reason Sunak daren't delay the GE further?

    We have to start towing them back to France, if no one is prepared to do Rwanda
    Sorry, cannot accept that. I am not happy clappy, all people are legal, welcome them all in, open borders, like many in Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens are but you cannot risk a single persons life by doing that.

    You also have to have a proper process to allow people to apply to come here rather than risk their lives on boats and then just turn up and disappear into the black economy.
    Stop being such a flake

    Their lives are already being risked. They drown quite regularly. And hundreds drown in the Med

    If we tow them back they will stop coming so in the end you will save many more lives than might be lost. You just have to be quite ruthless at first

    Also, this is inevitable. In the end if you don’t do this voters will elect fascists that will do much much worse than this. See the recent European elex
    Don't you have a contradiction there. You say hundreds drown already. You also say they will stop coming if we tow them back so the extra risk of drowning will in the end save lives as it will stop them coming.

    Why will it stop them coming if they risk drowning already? They will still come in a hope of not being caught.

    Re you last sentence that is a genuine worry I agree.
    Because they won’t risk drowning if they know there is a 100% chance they will simply be towed back to France
    This is the canard that the right keeps repeating - "They won't risk it if they know [they'll be sent to Rwanda/towed back/made to read the Spectator]" (delete as appropriate).

    There's no evidence set out that the migrants would either know about such policies or care even if they did. Like any criminal who boasts they will get away with it, the smugglers will claim a secure route to take their money. You're just making assertions with no evidence.
    There is no reason why the British will be immune to the rightwards surge across the western world. We are NOT exceptional, merely behind the curve
    Actually I think we are ahead of the curve.

    We had our spleen venting moment in 2016. We did the Brexit. We got it out of our system.

    And now we regret it and we’re turning Centre-Left, and how.

    We are 10 years ahead of the rest of western Europe. Britain often has been ahead of the pack and it’s good to see. We will NOT succumb to the far right, however much you’d like it not to be the case.
    It might seem like centre left, but a stonking Labour will energise the more left wing parts of labour too. In general the Liberal and Labour vote share is always greater than the Tory (or Tory plus UKIP/Reform etc) so the country as a whole favours just about left of centre.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,778
    Ghedebrav said:

    Tories suspend candidates in betting scandal!

    https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/1805535245590003850?s=46

    Another gift for Starmer ahead of the final debate…

    Once again stealing worse defeat from the jaws of normal defeat.
    Sunak's timing would seem to be near-perfect - if his goal was to keep this burning steadily through the period of postal voting and right up to polling day.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    Pedantic point: do/should the votes for suspended candidates count towards the popular vote total for the party in question?
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105
    Now this is interesting.

    LATE BREAKING: Several unconfirmed reports are now circulating that indicate Trump has selected Vivek Ramaswamy for VP..

    THOUGHTS?

    https://x.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1805471409839145015
  • I do think after today the Tories will be lucky to get 150 seats.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    MattW said:

    PPE story. Full Support Healthcare.

    £1.4bn of PPE destroyed. What interests me is that the we seem to be in hock for products we never received.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cll476qzm85o

    The article makes it clear these are products we did receive but never used, and now it's out of date.

    Realistically there's no alternative when demand surges then collapses. We were using 10 years worth of PPE in each week, then we weren't again, so when the music stops there's either going to be a case of running out of PPE and putting people's lives in greater jeopardy, or getting too much then never using it.
    How does this stuff go out of date so quickly?

    Is is just a paperwork thing or is there actual degradation of the material?

    I'd have taken a few gowns for painting the ceiling etc etc.
    I seem to recall that the NHS had no real notion of stock rotation of PPE - so a hospital would be regularly using fresh stock and there would be a huge stockpile somewhere else (for the infamous flu plan) that was never brought out, used and replaced. It seems we have done the same here.

    Elementary failures at a basic level.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240

    Chris Cook
    @xtophercook
    Labour diverts activists away from Lib Dem target seats

    https://x.com/xtophercook/status/1805452516080918596

    This does need a health warning though. The FT appears to have put a bunch of postcodes into the "where should I help?" tool for new activists on Labour's website. But existing Labour activists are continuing to campaign, often quite hard, in their own seats which happen to be LibDem targets. There are three in Oxfordshire where it's very plausible we'll see Con 1st, LD 2nd, Lab 3rd as a result of this.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,721
    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    This is definitely going down the 'I didn't really know what was going on' route.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited June 25

    Pedantic point: do/should the votes for suspended candidates count towards the popular vote total for the party in question?

    It does if it happens after the nominations close as the BBC and PA counts them for the party next to their name on the ballot paper.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468

    The top left quadrant is definitely where the cool kids are.

    Suppose I could vote Green - shouldn’t make a difference to Yvette Cooper despite Reform - but not sure if I’m ready to make that leap. Am I really that sickeningly right-on and, dare I say it, woke? It seems I am…


    You look fractionally closer to the LibDems. I'll put you down as a possible.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    He’s more of an anti-Mosley when it comes to European integration though.
    It would seem that a certain type of European integration under the Russian yoke might well be appealing for the traitorous members of "Reform".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568

    Now this is interesting.

    LATE BREAKING: Several unconfirmed reports are now circulating that indicate Trump has selected Vivek Ramaswamy for VP..

    THOUGHTS?

    https://x.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1805471409839145015

    A clever pick if true? He’s a gifted speaker and he also defuses some of the absurd “racist” allegations aimed so unfairly at Trump
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105

    I do think after today the Tories will be lucky to get 150 seats.

    You can get 7-1 on them reaching 150 seats now. So the odds say unlikely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177

    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    Lock them all up and we can have an inquiry in 2039 to see which ones didn't do anything wrong.
    The prisons are completely full, in case you'd forgotten ?
    Book them a small room at the Ecuadorean embassy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468

    Pedantic point: do/should the votes for suspended candidates count towards the popular vote total for the party in question?

    I think they're always included, perhaps because no-one can be bothered with the fiddly detail of excluding them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    You may love it but you don't understand it if you think Farage is "posh."
    Educated at Dulwich College so yeah
    Compared to the likes of Cameron he might as well be the help.
    That of course is true. And indeed Mosley himself.

    Nevertheless I’ll stick with it, thanks. He went to Dulwich College and is no working class bloke. It’s all a national front.
    Cameron isn’t posh either. His wife is
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177

    Now this is interesting.

    LATE BREAKING: Several unconfirmed reports are now circulating that indicate Trump has selected Vivek Ramaswamy for VP..

    THOUGHTS?...

    ... And prayers for those who had money on Doug Burgum.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350

    I do think after today the Tories will be lucky to get 150 seats.

    hello hello hello hello hello hello hello
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,240
    TimS said:

    New political questionnaire Klaxon. This one’s actually quite good and more sophisticated than the fun but rudimentary war compass one yesterday.

    https://votecompass.uk/

    I’m close to where I thought I’d be, a little bit further right economically than expected.


    Different quadrants for Scotland. I'm actually more Unionist than this:


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Sunak doesn't half know how to keep a story going :D
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Thanks Barty, I will never be able to remove the image of Farage suckling at a teet from my mind...
    Bitty
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,350
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    You may love it but you don't understand it if you think Farage is "posh."
    Educated at Dulwich College so yeah
    Compared to the likes of Cameron he might as well be the help.
    That of course is true. And indeed Mosley himself.

    Nevertheless I’ll stick with it, thanks. He went to Dulwich College and is no working class bloke. It’s all a national front.
    Cameron isn’t posh either. His wife is
    That maybe true. When I made love to her, she said "I'm arriving"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    edited June 25
    NY Times poll tracker launched today:


    "What do the polls say about the race for the White House?

    With less than five months to go, new poll averages from The New York Times, which debut today, show a very close race nationally and in the critical battleground states."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/upshot/introducing-2024-poll-tracker.html

    Basically tied.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,489
    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    I doubt that a piece of useful, non-trivial software that is completely devoid of bugs has ever been written. Bugs are just part of software. Nobody needs to "reveal" the existence of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Absolutely nothing to worry about. 🤔

    OpenAI just acquired this startup that basically lets someone remotely control your computer...
    https://x.com/itsandrewgao/status/1805264567548748151
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    This is why the Tories are about to get stepmommed.

    First-time buyers hit with 60pc increase in mortgage payments

    Asking prices and borrowing costs have rocketed since the last election


    First-time buyers are paying almost two thirds more in mortgage payments since the last election, new figures show.

    The monthly mortgage payment for an average first-time home has risen by 61pc, from £667 in December 2019 to £1,075, because of soaring interest rates, according to Rightmove.

    The rise had “significantly outpaced wage growth,” it said. Wages grew 27pc in the past five years.

    Average interest rates for five-year fixes with a 20pc deposit rose from 2.24pc in 2019 to 5.09pc in 2024, driven by successive rises to the Bank of England’s base rate. Last week, the Bank decided to hold rates at 5.25pc for the seventh time. Forecasters had predicted the Bank Rate would fall to 4.75pc by the end of 2024, but markets now expect them to be 5pc.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/mortgages/monthly-mortgage-payments-soar-61pc-for-first-time-buyers/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,389
    Cookie said:

    ...while I have problems with the Con position on dozens of issues (e.g. HS2), on a macro scale the Conservatives are roughly in the right place...

    If the Conservatives are "roughly in the right place", then the question arises as to why it has taken a position on dozens of issues that displease you. I would suggest two reasons
    • Mission creep and various bits from Malmesbury. Government has spread out into areas where Conservative thought can't really cope/agree with, and is therefore having to take positions on things it needn't
    • Divorce of principle from policy. Policies should derive from principle but do not, leading to a jumble
    This is why I think the Conservatives should go into opposition so they can reset, so to speak.


  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,721
    edited June 25

    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    I doubt that a piece of useful, non-trivial software that is completely devoid of bugs has ever been written. Bugs are just part of software. Nobody needs to "reveal" the existence of them.
    The law (wrongly) says that computers are reliable unless shown otherwise.

    So unless someone talked about bugs the court could only assume that there weren't any.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    TudorRose said:

    I hope "Reform" do badly in all seats including Clacton. Farage is the Oswald Mosely of the modern age. An absolute disgrace who provides succour to our enemies. How anyone who claims to be in the slightest bit patriotic could vote for him and his odious crew of weirdos, racists and misfits staggers me.

    It struck me that Farage's comments about Ukraine were aimed at a US audience. Maybe he's looking for a job because he already knows that the people of Clacton aren't giving him one.
    Lots of wondering for the motivation behind Farage's Putinist commentary. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is simply what he believes and that his brand would quickly fall apart if he tried to spin it. The raison d'etre for voting for him is he speaks his mind and will take on the failed establishment.
    It seems that for reasons unknown he speaks Putin's mind. Anyone that votes Reform is voting for a man that is a Putin lickspittle.
    He's fully paid up and suckling at the teet of MAGA loons in the USA - and they're team Putin.

    Nasty, vile man.
    Indeed.

    @Nigel_Foremain is right to make the comparison with Oswald Mosley, someone else from a posh background who tried to whip up support amongst the workers with tub thumping rhetoric.

    The British did NOT succumb to fascism then, unlike at least three of our European neighbours. And I am confident we will not do so again whatever @Leon claims otherwise.

    We are and always have been an outward-facing, seafaring, internationalist nation. And that is why I love Britain.
    You may love it but you don't understand it if you think Farage is "posh."
    Educated at Dulwich College so yeah
    Compared to the likes of Cameron he might as well be the help.
    That of course is true. And indeed Mosley himself.

    Nevertheless I’ll stick with it, thanks. He went to Dulwich College and is no working class bloke. It’s all a national front.
    Cameron isn’t posh either. His wife is
    Cameron is a cadet of the Locheil branch. Rees Mogg is minor squirearchy married to the Wentworth Woodhouse heiress.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177

    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    This is definitely going down the 'I didn't really know what was going on' route.
    Yep.
    Also, "I don't recall".

    ..Now we're hearing about the case of Lee Castleton, a sub-postmaster who was wrongly pursued in the civil courts by the Post Office for supposed losses at his branch.
    He always argued the Horizon system was to blame.
    The inquiry is shown a request from Post Office lawyers to Jenkins for evidence rebutting Castleton's claims about Horizon, setting out what was required of him and his duties to be truthful in court.
    Jenkins says he can't remember receiving the letter and only became aware of it when the police investigation into him began in 2020.
    Beer pauses to "help" Jenkins and warns him that discussing his conversations with solicitors could be read as him waiving privilege in those matters, meaning the inquiry would be entitled to ask about those conversations more broadly.
    The lawyers tells him he can waive that privilege if he wants to "but doesn't want him to do it by accident".
    "I don't want to do that either," Jenkins says, to some laughter from former sub-postmasters listening to the evidence...,/I>
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Nigelb said:

    Absolutely nothing to worry about. 🤔

    OpenAI just acquired this startup that basically lets someone remotely control your computer...
    https://x.com/itsandrewgao/status/1805264567548748151

    People are going to be able to get away with anything in the future:
    • Compromising video/audio: it's AI generated
    • Dodgy browsing history: AI on screenshare did it
    • Racist draft article: AI on screenshare/AI assistant wrote it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    edited June 25

    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    I doubt that a piece of useful, non-trivial software that is completely devoid of bugs has ever been written. Bugs are just part of software. Nobody needs to "reveal" the existence of them.
    They do if they're giving evidence in court, as an expert, that a system is entirely reliable.
    And when the law says that it is to be regarded as such, in the absence of anyone providing evidence to the contrary.

    The law also, of course, places a duty of disclosure on the prosecution.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,489

    Nigelb said:

    This is a remarkable claim from Jenkins.
    Quite possibly testable at some point, though.

    ..He says he never knew about the so-called Clarke advice until 2020, seven years after barrister Simon Clarke warned the Post Office that Jenkin’s role as an expert witness had been “fatally undermined” because he didn’t reveal the existence of bugs...

    I doubt that a piece of useful, non-trivial software that is completely devoid of bugs has ever been written. Bugs are just part of software. Nobody needs to "reveal" the existence of them.
    The law (wrongly) says that computers are reliable unless shown otherwise.

    So unless someone talked about bugs the court could only assume that there weren't any.
    It depends what you mean by reliable, I suppose. Most cars can be considered to be reliable these days, but that doesn't mean they never break down. Similarly, a computer system may be regarded as reliable, but that doesn't mean it's always right.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Selebian, not someone I always watch (more into history than science) but Kyle Hill* had an interesting video months ago about AI swamping the internet and people retreating to places like Discord where there's a better quality of communication. He also suggested the near future might see people register in person to confirm their identity for certain things to avoid the risk of AI impersonation.

    *think I got the name right.
This discussion has been closed.