🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
Presumably, this would see the LibDems become the official opposition. Can you imagine it?
The Tories would oppose most of it in principle, whereas with the LibDems that will only come into play when Labour’s authoritarian control freakery is on display. Otherwise the LDs will be urging Labour to be bolder and do more, which would certainly be a different type of opposition.
I do wonder if Ed would actually be up for the doing the LOTO role full time.
Yes, he did a great job as SoS for Energy, and is a fine leader of the party in its current form. But he's not a particularly great Commons performer, and I suspect he might struggle to make an impact at PMQs and the Budget response etc.
Perhaps we might see at Lib Dem leadership election a year or two into the next parliament?
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
Is this something you've made up in your head, or is this something in their manifesto?
Criticising any religion is free speech.
I mean New Labour introduced a religious hatred law
Which does not cover criticising any religion, which is still legally protected free speech.
I can say I dislike Islam, or the Catholic Church, or Christianity in general, or Judaism, or any other belief and it is free speech and not a crime.
Really not straightforward when religion is 99% coextensive with race. People who dislike Judaism are not in reality saying that they have conceptual difficulties with the Pentateuch. There are vanishingly few white Anglo Saxon Muslims. Etc.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
There are at least 20% of the population who agree with him though , just because this place is an echo chamber on the subject , not all think like PB "left/right of centre" geeks
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
There are at least 20% of the population who agree with him though , just because this place is an echo chamber on the subject , not all think like PB "left/right of centre" geeks
True.
Last nite I was in a car with a couple of Reform voters who were 100% behind Nige.
Some of you peeps need to get out more.
Is there any polling data that supports stategoaway’s “at least 20%” assertion ?
Presumably, this would see the LibDems become the official opposition. Can you imagine it?
The Tories would oppose most of it in principle, whereas with the LibDems that will only come into play when Labour’s authoritarian control freakery is on display. Otherwise the LDs will be urging Labour to be bolder and do more, which would certainly be a different type of opposition.
Not that different, its exactly how SKS treated being Opposition Leader during lockdown.
Be bolder in locking down for longer, do more lockdowns etc
LOLOL, this is the general election that keeps on giving.
The Commies reject JK Rowling's endorsement.
Concern has been expressed about a tweet issued by 'For Women Scotland' on 22 June 2024 and re-tweeted by J.K. Rowling. The tweet reproduces an unofficial summary of Communist Party policy, namely that:
"We [the CP] oppose all forms of conversion therapy applied to lesbian and gay people and we oppose including trans identities in such a ban."
The Communist Party does indeed oppose all forms of conversion therapy applied to lesbian and gay people. We also support banning regressive conversion therapy targeting trans people.
For the avoidance of doubt, the Communist Party supports the right of trans people to medically transition, to have access to healthcare and live equal, full and meaningful lives, socially, economically and politically. We believe that such liberation will only be possible under socialism.
Wherever possible, corrections to this effect have been sought where this inaccuracy has been reproduced.
ANME update: I posted the wife's ballot paper (no dog poo bins were harmed in the casting of this ballot). Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me. Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
Take over what ?
Even he manages to become a more important loudmouth that's not equal to being in government.
I think he means a reverse take over of what is left of the Conservative brand. Remember as Farage and Tommy Ten Names enter from the right a shedload of one nation Tories leave stage left.
What happens if the Conservatives don't let him in ?
There's no shortage of wannabe big shots among Conservative politicians who would not want to take orders from Farage and his rabble.
I guess it depends on who is left standing if it is indeed a rout (which I doubt).
If the rump is full of Suellas, Jenricks and Christopher Chopes they'd bite his hand off. If that comes to pass Henley on Thames goes LD next time.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
I’m sorry, I thought he had gone further than saying “just a pretext”.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Le Fisher at Quiberon just down the way. I presume it is a chain then? If you identified the brand but not the place? It’s lush
Ah! I hadn't actually realised there was more than one of them. The one at Carnac Plage is similarly swish and scene-y. Enjoy your trip!
I had no idea southern Brittany is so…. Posh. Its like a kind of Atlantic Côte d’Azur but it’s better because its not full of retired British tampon ad executives (naming no names - but I mean @roger aka rogerdamus. Roger. That’s who I mean. Roger. But I’m staying shtum I won’t reveal that I mean roger)
Also, wtf is wrong with the frogs. I am increasingly obsessed with the disjunct between their cushy lives and their political anger. I’m in morbihan. I just checked the euro elex results here
Yep. Bardella won. Ok you could argue that’s a family vote as the le pens are from morbihan but much of Brittany went for le pen as indeed did much of France
What’s their problem? Do they want even nicer roundabouts?
It’s not like it’s all massively expensive either. It isn’t. 🤷🏼♂️
It is something of a mystery. The place just drips ‘quality of life’. The climate is, largely lovely, the towns pristine, the roads out of this world. Hmm.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
My conflict coordinates are 75% Palestine, 80.56% Ukraine. I don't think that's wrong, but I'm not certain about the value of this test. I tried to answer questions in the abstract, but it was very obvious which questions related to what Israeli/Palestinian/Russian/Ukrainian claims.
Indeed, I thought similar. I agree with where I ended up and will use my image of the day on it, but not sure how meaningful it is.
Fun test though, thank you TimS for sharing it.
I've come out as completely neutral on Russia / Ukraine and halfway into the Palestinian half of the field. That is way out
Trouble with general principles is that, for example, yes, some of the things Russia say they are doing can in some circumstances be legitimate, except for the fact they are talking total rubbish, and answering for the general principle doesn't say whether you believe that principle applies in a given circumstance.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
As I understand it Baxter is essentially UNS with a few tweaks, including a tactical voting model.
But this time, everyone is appalled by the Tories and hence the swing will be more proportional than uniform, as those areas where there are more Tory voters will have the bigger swings away.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Today is a day, that is not debatable either.
Really is this such an issue
India beating Australia is far more interesting
Its a shame that we face India in the Semi-Final though, the Final would be far more scintillating for that match.
The irony is that for 38 years the Scots sang songs about Maradona and wore Argentina shirts and it’s an Argie ref who stiffs them for a stonewall penalty. Absolute theatre last night 😂😂😂 #EURo2024
I don't think it was stonewall penalty. I wanted it given, but objectively speaking it wasn't a terrible decision not to give it.
I do think there was a question off offside on the Hungary goal, but honestly that only made a difference to them, not us. A draw wasn't enough. Good luck to Hungary. We were 4th best in the group overall, so there's no use moaning about the result.
It was a very poor decision not to have a look at VAR. (In the view of this football ignoramus.)
The feckers rushed to VAR for everything else, absolute crap as was the referee to both teams, where do they find these amateurs.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage's view is stoopid. Ukraine's mere existence gave Putin a pretext to invade; as his speeches have said since. In his perverted mind, Ukraine *is* Russia. But it did not want to be Russia, and therefore it had to suffer a punishment beating until it becomes Russia.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
Presumably, this would see the LibDems become the official opposition. Can you imagine it?
The Tories would oppose most of it in principle, whereas with the LibDems that will only come into play when Labour’s authoritarian control freakery is on display. Otherwise the LDs will be urging Labour to be bolder and do more, which would certainly be a different type of opposition.
Not that different, its exactly how SKS treated being Opposition Leader during lockdown.
Be bolder in locking down for longer, do more lockdowns etc
Interesting exchange in the Facebook comments under this video, between Tory candidate James Cracknell and one of his fans
"Who knows who will be leading the party come 5th July", Tory candidate Cracknell said — adding a winking smiley face
Loyalty famously used to be the Troies' "secret weapon".
It seems to have completely evaporated now.
Yes. I am a moderate loyal Tory from the egg, always voted for them in general elections as the better of the options available, since 1974, brought up in middle class, public service class, Telegraph reading London household. My loyalty to the Toryism I have inherited is demonstrated by the fact I am voting Labour this time, as are most of the Tories I know.
you could have just said you were a selfish total arsehole and saved some time
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Today is a day, that is not debatable either.
Yes it is. Good note to end on. Debate avoided since not necessary.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
But is that "this Thursday" or "next Thursday"?
For me "this". But that is just slightly debatable.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Macron is telling the french they will descend in to a civil war if they dont vote for him.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Macron is telling the french they will descend in to a civil war if they dont vote for him.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Macron is telling the french they willdescend in to a civil war if they dont vote for him.
I find that a touch debatable
If he believed that, he wouldn't/shouldn't have called an early election.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Yep, Dutch salute KLAXON
I never did grasp what the Dutch Salute was/is. Some of tactical voting strategy?
Committed an assault and documented it? Not the brightest.
A right to roam in England will be difficult.
There is a lot more land next to urban sprawl and plenty of anti-social behaviour to go with it.
There is also a right of way network which doesn't really exist in Scotland and we already have access land in some suitable places.
Extend Access Land? - yes. A blanket right to roam? - a recipe for trouble.
Yep - I agree it's a can or worms, which I think is why New Labour only went so far.
AIUI the Scottish setup has been quite effective, so that is a good, but maybe partial due to population density etc, model.
The RoW network is very badly neglected, with some bizarre general practices such as newly created publicly funded multiuser paths not being dedicated as RoWs. The current Govt has been as chaotic about this, as they are about everything else - with for example Theresa Coffey being a patsy for the landowner lobby.
My preference is for the role of LHAs to be broadened to be Public Highway bodies, rather than "Roads" Bodies with nods to other things, and public highway policing to become a statutory responsibility of police forces.
Access land in England is a mess - there are hundreds of areas of access land everywhere which cannot be reached without trespassing to get there. There's a good video by Paul Whitewick on that issue here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0GiPtOHI7U
It all seems ripe for a tidy up, and it will be popular with pretty much all of Sir Keir Starmer's support base. I don't see a political downside for him.
Agree, a tidy up would be good.
I'm not averse to a bit of trespass myself depending on the circumstances but I always do so responsibly.
A number of RoWs round here are impassible to sane people (very high vegetation, rutted and swampy) but also have very rare plants on them which would not benefit from them being cleared and surfaced.
We were asked to collect some seeds for Kew from one.
Poor maintainance of signage and stiles / gates is endemic, though, and that could be fixed with a few quid.
One of my favourite bloggers at present is Kate Ashbrook, who was a Ramblers' trustee for about 30 years - the kind of Englishwoman who writes about organising ~100 path-check volunteers for a couple of decades in Buckinghamshire in her spare time, as if it was like boiling an egg. She was the protagonist in the Hoogstraten case, and resolving it involved minor things such as getting new clauses in the CROW Act 2000.
You and others might enjoy; I'm slowly working my way through 14 years of ~3-weekly blogging.
Since we have been on access, here's a short piece she wrote about a walk designed to show Richard Benyon the Minister about problems with access land in England:
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
So what is in my mind is, what is the “fatal” seat number for the Conservatives to fall to? At what point does the Conservative Party of the last 2 centuries never come back quite the same? That whatever UK Conservatism is called in future, it’s more PopCon in character, shaped by a rightwing drift to the economics of Boris and Truss, it loses that USP for sound finance, and with less centre ground members and MPs too than it has always had historically, things open up for Labour to become the dominant force in UK politics, in a mirror of the last 100 years.
What sort of seat range proves fatal to coming back as a centre right force, rather than a pop right one?
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Well, that's an interesting poll to a point. Much better for the LDs but if we're seeing a tactical vote shift much worse for the Conservatives.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
There's your difference.
Been telling you - door-knocking shows the oldies and crumblies are still backing Team Tories.
Not to the extent they did in 2019 and we only have your anecdotal evidence of what is going on in your part of the world.
In 2019, the over 65s went 64% Conservative, 17% Labour - if it's now 40.5% Conservative, 25% Labour that's a 16% swing which isn't too shabby. Among younger age groups the swing will be much larger.
We also have plenty of evidence older voters back Reform so some of your erstwhile Tories (whatever they may tell you on the doorstep) might support Farage.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
It goes even further back than that. Next Thursday will see then end of a psychodrama within the Conservative Party that began in 1992, when I was 18, over Europe. People thought it ended in 2019 but the side that “won” following that year’s purge, the Eurosceptics, may go down in history as having destroyed the party they took control of.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage's view is stoopid. Ukraine's mere existence gave Putin a pretext to invade; as his speeches have said since. In his perverted mind, Ukraine *is* Russia. But it did not want to be Russia, and therefore it had to suffer a punishment beating until it becomes Russia.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
I don't even understand the argument being made here. Farage is saying it was a pretext, ok, and that Putin was wrong to use it, fine.
But by definition a pretext is not the real reason for an action, so even if we say for sake of argument the EU expanding was a pretext Putin used (in reality he used lots of different ones), clearly that did not matter since, well, it was a pretext. He'd have found another one, that's why it was a pretext.
But that is not what Farage is doing. He is clearly trying to criticise the EU and the West for expanding East. And the only way that makes sense is if he thinks that expansion was not a pretext, but in fact a justification.
Yes, he does make sure to say Putin should not have done what he did. But it simply makes no sense to go 'Look, we gave Putin a pretext and that was wrong of us' since someone else creating a pretext is still not our, or the EU's, fault, but he is trying to say it (partly) was.
If it was anyone but Putin's fault, it's not a pretext but a justification. If it is a pretext, then it's not the EU's fault as he keeps trying to claim, even if in part.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage: “ As I have made clear on multiple occasions since then, if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds.”
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
In 2019 postal votes made up 21% of valid ballots counted . Even if there’s some late swing back to the Tories they’ll already be facing an uphill struggle.
Pollsters really should be asking now about postal votes .
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage: “ As I have made clear on multiple occasions since then, if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds.”
Big on the victim blaming, your Nige.
Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
No, we're not, that's why that doesn't make any sense!
It relies on a universe where other reasons have not been given, and where 'giving' a pretext to someone is something to be criticised for, even though a pretext is a fake reason and so it doesn't matter if you give one or not.
Made up reasons have also been given as pretexts, I wonder how those are the EU's fault too.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage's view is stoopid. Ukraine's mere existence gave Putin a pretext to invade; as his speeches have said since. In his perverted mind, Ukraine *is* Russia. But it did not want to be Russia, and therefore it had to suffer a punishment beating until it becomes Russia.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
I don't even understand the argument being made here. Farage is saying it was a pretext, ok, and that Putin was wrong to use it, fine.
But by definition a pretext is not the real reason for an action, so even if we say for sake of argument the EU expanding was a pretext Putin used (in reality he used lots of different ones), clearly that did not matter since, well, it was a pretext. He'd have found another one, that's why it was a pretext.
But that is not what Farage is doing. He is clearly trying to criticise the EU and the West for expanding East. And the only way that makes sense is if he thinks that expansion was not a pretext, but in fact a justification.
Yes, he does make sure to say Putin should not have done what he did. But it simply makes no sense to go 'Look, we gave Putin a pretext and that was wrong of us' since someone else creating a pretext is still not our, or the EU's, fault, but he is trying to say it (partly) was.
If it was anyone but Putin's fault, it's not a pretext but a justification. If it is a pretext, then it's not the EU's fault as he keeps trying to claim, even if in part.
Of course but I don't think you will find either conspiracy theorists or older members of Clacton bowls club are listening to the finer points.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
In 2019 postal votes made up 21% of valid ballots counted . Even if there’s some late swing back to the Tories they’ll already be facing an uphill struggle.
Pollsters really should be asking now about postal votes .
Had to complain to Ashford BC about the good lady's not arriving yet.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
It goes even further back than that. Next Thursday will see then end of a psychodrama within the Conservative Party that began in 1992, when I was 18, over Europe. People thought it ended in 2019 but the side that “won” following that year’s purge, the Eurosceptics, may go down in history as having destroyed the party they took control of.
They will, but why would that be the end of the psychodrama. The argument post July 4th will continue to be whether they needed to go harder on every issue - Brexit, Immigration, whatever - or go softer.
Every indication is the Members will believe they should have gone harder, but not all of them will, so the drama will continue.
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
Putting up a blue one implies one is a penis! Some of the Cowbridge farmers' fields have replaced their Alun Cairns placards with barely readable Reform signs. Is that what Farage's bunch call themselves? The signs are almost illegible. Perhaps they were drawn with crayons.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
So what is in my mind is, what is the “fatal” seat number for the Conservatives to fall to? At what point does the Conservative Party of the last 2 centuries never come back quite the same? That whatever UK Conservatism is called in future, it’s more PopCon in character, shaped by a rightwing drift to the economics of Boris and Truss, it loses that USP for sound finance, and with less centre ground members and MPs too than it has always had historically, things open up for Labour to become the dominant force in UK politics, in a mirror of the last 100 years.
What sort of seat range proves fatal to coming back as a centre right force, rather than a pop right one?
It's a bloody good question. I'd say the tipping point is if the Tories end up with fewer seats than the LDs. (I doubt they will btw.)
But... Anything below 150 Tory seats is uncharted territory, so we really don't know what the impact will be. It could be that 150 seats is the start of the end, or that the Tories drop to 10 seats and still recover. We just don't know.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Well, that's an interesting poll to a point. Much better for the LDs but if we're seeing a tactical vote shift much worse for the Conservatives.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
There's your difference.
Been telling you - door-knocking shows the oldies and crumblies are still backing Team Tories.
Not to the extent they did in 2019 and we only have your anecdotal evidence of what is going on in your part of the world.
In 2019, the over 65s went 64% Conservative, 17% Labour - if it's now 40.5% Conservative, 25% Labour that's a 16% swing which isn't too shabby. Among younger age groups the swing will be much larger.
We also have plenty of evidence older voters back Reform so some of your erstwhile Tories (whatever they may tell you on the doorstep) might support Farage.
Are you subsampling there though?
Yes of course but so is @MarqueeMark. Nobody polls 10,000 or 50,000 people over 65 so we don't really know what is going to happen. The 64-17 was the split from 2019 but I quoted the More In Common sub sample which is much better for the Conservatives than the Redfield & Wilton more to try to identify the difference between one polling the Conservatives at 18% and the other having them at 25%.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
It goes even further back than that. Next Thursday will see then end of a psychodrama within the Conservative Party that began in 1992, when I was 18, over Europe. People thought it ended in 2019 but the side that “won” following that year’s purge, the Eurosceptics, may go down in history as having destroyed the party they took control of.
They will, but why would that be the end of the psychodrama. The argument post July 4th will continue to be whether they needed to go harder on every issue - Brexit, Immigration, whatever - or go softer.
Every indication is the Members will believe they should have gone harder, but not all of them will, so the drama will continue.
If the Tories suffer an ELE it won't be a psychodrama that matters one jot to anyone else anymore.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Picture I saw on the web somewhere, pictured the Princess Royal wearing a rather nice, and actual, hat. Nice light yet deep shade of blue (some good news for Rishi?) with a very angular design that was well-designed.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
It goes even further back than that. Next Thursday will see then end of a psychodrama within the Conservative Party that began in 1992, when I was 18, over Europe. People thought it ended in 2019 but the side that “won” following that year’s purge, the Eurosceptics, may go down in history as having destroyed the party they took control of.
They will, but why would that be the end of the psychodrama. The argument post July 4th will continue to be whether they needed to go harder on every issue - Brexit, Immigration, whatever - or go softer.
Every indication is the Members will believe they should have gone harder, but not all of them will, so the drama will continue.
They didn't need to go harder. They needed to go more competently.
Le Fisher at Quiberon just down the way. I presume it is a chain then? If you identified the brand but not the place? It’s lush
Ah! I hadn't actually realised there was more than one of them. The one at Carnac Plage is similarly swish and scene-y. Enjoy your trip!
I had no idea southern Brittany is so…. Posh. Its like a kind of Atlantic Côte d’Azur but it’s better because its not full of retired British tampon ad executives (naming no names - but I mean @roger aka rogerdamus. Roger. That’s who I mean. Roger. But I’m staying shtum I won’t reveal that I mean roger)
Also, wtf is wrong with the frogs. I am increasingly obsessed with the disjunct between their cushy lives and their political anger. I’m in morbihan. I just checked the euro elex results here
Yep. Bardella won. Ok you could argue that’s a family vote as the le pens are from morbihan but much of Brittany went for le pen as indeed did much of France
What’s their problem? Do they want even nicer roundabouts?
It’s not like it’s all massively expensive either. It isn’t. 🤷🏼♂️
It is something of a mystery. The place just drips ‘quality of life’. The climate is, largely lovely, the towns pristine, the roads out of this world. Hmm.
I was in another small Breton town today and the high street was busy (well, would have been busy if it wasn't shut for Monday), clean and full of nice shops and stuff. I guess if you actually fight back against creeping corporatisation then you get to keep your nice independent boulangeries and bouchers.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
It goes even further back than that. Next Thursday will see then end of a psychodrama within the Conservative Party that began in 1992, when I was 18, over Europe. People thought it ended in 2019 but the side that “won” following that year’s purge, the Eurosceptics, may go down in history as having destroyed the party they took control of.
They will, but why would that be the end of the psychodrama. The argument post July 4th will continue to be whether they needed to go harder on every issue - Brexit, Immigration, whatever - or go softer.
Every indication is the Members will believe they should have gone harder, but not all of them will, so the drama will continue.
If the Tories suffer an ELE it won't be a psychodrama that matters one jot to anyone else anymore.
It will matter just in a different way.
Like the Labour Party's psychodrama and ongoing divisions over who would control the NEC etc under Corbyn.
The cycle will eventually turn and when the Tories start caring more about the voters than themselves once more, they might be fit for office again. Hopefully that's before its become clear Labour needs to be turfed out.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
So what is in my mind is, what is the “fatal” seat number for the Conservatives to fall to? At what point does the Conservative Party of the last 2 centuries never come back quite the same? That whatever UK Conservatism is called in future, it’s more PopCon in character, shaped by a rightwing drift to the economics of Boris and Truss, it loses that USP for sound finance, and with less centre ground members and MPs too than it has always had historically, things open up for Labour to become the dominant force in UK politics, in a mirror of the last 100 years.
What sort of seat range proves fatal to coming back as a centre right force, rather than a pop right one?
Not sure there is any meaningful answer to your question, Moon, but it will be a dramatic turn of events if they are no longer the Official Opposition.
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
Putting up a blue one implies one is a penis! Some of the Cowbridge farmers' fields have replaced their Alun Cairns placards with barely readable Reform signs. Is that what Farage's bunch call themselves? The signs are almost illegible. Perhaps they were drawn with crayons.
When I was up in Norfolk the other week there were rather a lot of party placards dotted about, including some Reform ones.
One of those had been crayoned. Some wag had given the candidate's portrait a Hitler moustache. Sometimes the old jokes are best.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage's view is stoopid. Ukraine's mere existence gave Putin a pretext to invade; as his speeches have said since. In his perverted mind, Ukraine *is* Russia. But it did not want to be Russia, and therefore it had to suffer a punishment beating until it becomes Russia.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
I don't even understand the argument being made here. Farage is saying it was a pretext, ok, and that Putin was wrong to use it, fine.
But by definition a pretext is not the real reason for an action, so even if we say for sake of argument the EU expanding was a pretext Putin used (in reality he used lots of different ones), clearly that did not matter since, well, it was a pretext. He'd have found another one, that's why it was a pretext.
But that is not what Farage is doing. He is clearly trying to criticise the EU and the West for expanding East. And the only way that makes sense is if he thinks that expansion was not a pretext, but in fact a justification.
Yes, he does make sure to say Putin should not have done what he did. But it simply makes no sense to go 'Look, we gave Putin a pretext and that was wrong of us' since someone else creating a pretext is still not our, or the EU's, fault, but he is trying to say it (partly) was.
If it was anyone but Putin's fault, it's not a pretext but a justification. If it is a pretext, then it's not the EU's fault as he keeps trying to claim, even if in part.
Of course but I don't think you will find either conspiracy theorists or older members of Clacton bowls club are listening to the finer points.
Sure, but it is not a fine point, it's defending him on the basis of describing something as a pretext, even though using that word undermines the very criticism he is trying to make!
A professional politician of such long standing surely knows that if you combine two points together you can hardly moan if people assosciate them. It's like he's saying "A is a false reason for B. And that is why C was so wrong to do A, it was outrageous what C was doing, A was a disgarceful thing to do. What? No, I'm not justifying B, I told you I totally believe A is a false reason. But let me tell you more about how bad A is"
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Picture I saw on the web somewhere, pictured the Princess Royal wearing a rather nice, and actual, hat. Nice light yet deep shade of blue (some good news for Rishi?) with a very angular design that was well-designed.
What - in hospital? She got kicked in the head by a horse earlier. She's laid up in the Bristol Infirmary.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
This is of course the real reason why we both entered into union with them in the first place and why we pay a large amount of tribute to maintain the Union. Eliminates the possibility of a hostile power getting a hold on the Island.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Today is a day, that is not debatable either.
The word "day" in English, has different meanings depending on context. The context being used means we count today if you say, "days before," in which case you don't count the target day, and you don't count today if you say, "days until," in which case you do count the target day.
If you want some construction where you count both today, and the future day in question, then you would have a different formulation that referred to activity on those days, target than time between them, e.g., there are x days remaining in the election campaign, or y days of product shelf-life remaining.
Then the context is different, and so the meaning of days is also subtly different.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
It goes even further back than that. Next Thursday will see then end of a psychodrama within the Conservative Party that began in 1992, when I was 18, over Europe. People thought it ended in 2019 but the side that “won” following that year’s purge, the Eurosceptics, may go down in history as having destroyed the party they took control of.
They will, but why would that be the end of the psychodrama. The argument post July 4th will continue to be whether they needed to go harder on every issue - Brexit, Immigration, whatever - or go softer.
Every indication is the Members will believe they should have gone harder, but not all of them will, so the drama will continue.
If the Tories suffer an ELE it won't be a psychodrama that matters one jot to anyone else anymore.
Essentially the Tories are going be offering a bit of peripheral entertainment, the next five years. After that depends on them.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Indeed. Counting is a modern problem too, if you are Laura K or Big G.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
By the time this agument is over it will be 10119 days about a week to go.
It's been a while since I've been politically active.
Polling Day was not a day for campaigning or trying to change minds. It was all about checking who had voted and ensuring the vote you had identified as yours was going out and that was all you did from 6am to 9.30pm or later.
Delivering targeted "Good Morning" leaflets to telling to knocking up (ooer) was simply about getting the vote out.
We even worked with other parties to ensure all got the record of who had voted.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
So what is in my mind is, what is the “fatal” seat number for the Conservatives to fall to? At what point does the Conservative Party of the last 2 centuries never come back quite the same? That whatever UK Conservatism is called in future, it’s more PopCon in character, shaped by a rightwing drift to the economics of Boris and Truss, it loses that USP for sound finance, and with less centre ground members and MPs too than it has always had historically, things open up for Labour to become the dominant force in UK politics, in a mirror of the last 100 years.
What sort of seat range proves fatal to coming back as a centre right force, rather than a pop right one?
It's a bloody good question. I'd say the tipping point is if the Tories end up with fewer seats than the LDs. (I doubt they will btw.)
But... Anything below 150 Tory seats is uncharted territory, so we really don't know what the impact will be. It could be that 150 seats is the start of the end, or that the Tories drop to 10 seats and still recover. We just don't know.
My guess is 100. Partly because of base ten counting. But also...
We know that 150ish is survivable (see Conservatives 1997) and that 50 isn't a major party (Lib Dems 1997), so the crossover is between the two.
Also, it's a rule of thumb that about 1 in 3 MPs are capable of front bench roles really. (1/3 too old, too silly; 1/3 too young, too callow). 100 seats just about gives 35 front benchers; below that, shadowing becomes messy.
And the hard job for the Conservatives will be staffing and resourcing themselves through the coming exile. If they're probably ten years from power, why dedicate time to working for them? Why donate money to them when they'll have no power to repay favours?
Opposition sucks. I suspect the Conservatives have forgotten how much.
Interesting exchange in the Facebook comments under this video, between Tory candidate James Cracknell and one of his fans
"Who knows who will be leading the party come 5th July", Tory candidate Cracknell said — adding a winking smiley face
Loyalty famously used to be the Troies' "secret weapon".
It seems to have completely evaporated now.
Yes. I am a moderate loyal Tory from the egg, always voted for them in general elections as the better of the options available, since 1974, brought up in middle class, public service class, Telegraph reading London household. My loyalty to the Toryism I have inherited is demonstrated by the fact I am voting Labour this time, as are most of the Tories I know.
Then, you aren't real Tories.
Sorry. None would vote for a man who freely admits he is a socialist.
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
There's a hell of a lot of penis-free households around the ultra-safe seat of North Dorset then.
Still yet to see an election poster or sign for anyone but the LDs, bizarrely.
The LDs aren't at their best. I find it quite incredible that they have managed to arrive at this election so ill prepared and with a leader who really isn't up to it. (I did think he did quite well on the QT debate though)
Their policies seem almost contradictory too. If you like one you're sure to hate another.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
So thats 3 polls all showing basically no change for reform after putingate. The British are a fair people and whipping up hysteria and quoting people out of context doesnt play well with them.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
By the time this agument is over it will be 10119 days about a week to go.
This reminds me of a legendary incident in 2008 when two two bodybuilders had a 5 page unironic argument about how many days there are in a week on a bodybuilding forum.
I just got an email from Imelda Staunton (seriously).
If the (late) Queen is supporting Labour, the Tories really are in trouble.
I'm amused by celebs screeching their support of *any* political party, and LOL at anyone whose vote is actually swayed by such an endorsement.
If a celeb say "Go out and vote; it's important!!"; that's great. Kudos to them. It's the idea that someone who once played Doctor Who (as a random example) may have a better idea than me about who is best to run the country...
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally write: Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
"In the next 12 days" includes today and the time after the polls close and Starmer becomes PM.
It's been a while since I've been politically active.
Polling Day was not a day for campaigning or trying to change minds. It was all about checking who had voted and ensuring the vote you had identified as yours was going out and that was all you did from 6am to 9.30pm or later.
Delivering targeted "Good Morning" leaflets to telling to knocking up (ooer) was simply about getting the vote out.
We even worked with other parties to ensure all got the record of who had voted.
It's probably all different now.
I think there's plenty of camaraderie at volunteer level, it's the big knobs who are big knobs
Comments
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
Yes, he did a great job as SoS for Energy, and is a fine leader of the party in its current form. But he's not a particularly great Commons performer, and I suspect he might struggle to make an impact at PMQs and the Budget response etc.
Perhaps we might see at Lib Dem leadership election a year or two into the next parliament?
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
The Commies reject JK Rowling's endorsement.
Concern has been expressed about a tweet issued by 'For Women Scotland' on 22 June 2024 and re-tweeted by J.K. Rowling. The tweet reproduces an unofficial summary of Communist Party policy, namely that:
"We [the CP] oppose all forms of conversion therapy applied to lesbian and gay people and we oppose including trans identities in such a ban."
The Communist Party does indeed oppose all forms of conversion therapy applied to lesbian and gay people. We also support banning regressive conversion therapy targeting trans people.
For the avoidance of doubt, the Communist Party supports the right of trans people to medically transition, to have access to healthcare and live equal, full and meaningful lives, socially, economically and politically. We believe that such liberation will only be possible under socialism.
Wherever possible, corrections to this effect have been sought where this inaccuracy has been reproduced.
https://x.com/CPBritain/status/1805010532065226860
It seems something has changed ......
If the rump is full of Suellas, Jenricks and Christopher Chopes they'd bite his hand off. If that comes to pass Henley on Thames goes LD next time.
Sadly it was just a request for me to go canvassing.
India beating Australia is far more interesting
My wife donated to the Democrats yeas ago, and still gets similar emails.
But this time, everyone is appalled by the Tories and hence the swing will be more proportional than uniform, as those areas where there are more Tory voters will have the bigger swings away.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
I find that a touch debatable
What a prat.
What sort of seat range proves fatal to coming back as a centre right force, rather than a pop right one?
But by definition a pretext is not the real reason for an action, so even if we say for sake of argument the EU expanding was a pretext Putin used (in reality he used lots of different ones), clearly that did not matter since, well, it was a pretext. He'd have found another one, that's why it was a pretext.
But that is not what Farage is doing. He is clearly trying to criticise the EU and the West for expanding East. And the only way that makes sense is if he thinks that expansion was not a pretext, but in fact a justification.
Yes, he does make sure to say Putin should not have done what he did. But it simply makes no sense to go 'Look, we gave Putin a pretext and that was wrong of us' since someone else creating a pretext is still not our, or the EU's, fault, but he is trying to say it (partly) was.
If it was anyone but Putin's fault, it's not a pretext but a justification. If it is a pretext, then it's not the EU's fault as he keeps trying to claim, even if in part.
“ As I have made clear on multiple occasions since then, if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds.”
Big on the victim blaming, your Nige.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Pollsters really should be asking now about postal votes .
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
No, we're not, that's why that doesn't make any sense!
It relies on a universe where other reasons have not been given, and where 'giving' a pretext to someone is something to be criticised for, even though a pretext is a fake reason and so it doesn't matter if you give one or not.
Made up reasons have also been given as pretexts, I wonder how those are the EU's fault too.
Every indication is the Members will believe they should have gone harder, but not all of them will, so the drama will continue.
But... Anything below 150 Tory seats is uncharted territory, so we really don't know what the impact will be. It could be that 150 seats is the start of the end, or that the Tories drop to 10 seats and still recover. We just don't know.
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Like the Labour Party's psychodrama and ongoing divisions over who would control the NEC etc under Corbyn.
The cycle will eventually turn and when the Tories start caring more about the voters than themselves once more, they might be fit for office again. Hopefully that's before its become clear Labour needs to be turfed out.
One of those had been crayoned. Some wag had given the candidate's portrait a Hitler moustache. Sometimes the old jokes are best.
A professional politician of such long standing surely knows that if you combine two points together you can hardly moan if people assosciate them. It's like he's saying "A is a false reason for B. And that is why C was so wrong to do A, it was outrageous what C was doing, A was a disgarceful thing to do. What? No, I'm not justifying B, I told you I totally believe A is a false reason. But let me tell you more about how bad A is"
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Remember "Strong and Stable"? I regret to inform you the horse has bolted.
Still yet to see an election poster or sign for anyone but the LDs, bizarrely.
If you want some construction where you count both today, and the future day in question, then you would have a different formulation that referred to activity on those days, target than time between them, e.g., there are x days remaining in the election campaign, or y days of product shelf-life remaining.
Then the context is different, and so the meaning of days is also subtly different.
Remarkable as it sounds, Casino is likely to be in the sane wing of the tories, post-defeat.
We need to encourage him to stick around in the party.
If the (late) Queen is supporting Labour, the Tories really are in trouble.
Polling Day was not a day for campaigning or trying to change minds. It was all about checking who had voted and ensuring the vote you had identified as yours was going out and that was all you did from 6am to 9.30pm or later.
Delivering targeted "Good Morning" leaflets to telling to knocking up (ooer) was simply about getting the vote out.
We even worked with other parties to ensure all got the record of who had voted.
It's probably all different now.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne?
I hope she recovers soon and well.
We know that 150ish is survivable (see Conservatives 1997) and that 50 isn't a major party (Lib Dems 1997), so the crossover is between the two.
Also, it's a rule of thumb that about 1 in 3 MPs are capable of front bench roles really. (1/3 too old, too silly; 1/3 too young, too callow). 100 seats just about gives 35 front benchers; below that, shadowing becomes messy.
And the hard job for the Conservatives will be staffing and resourcing themselves through the coming exile. If they're probably ten years from power, why dedicate time to working for them? Why donate money to them when they'll have no power to repay favours?
Opposition sucks. I suspect the Conservatives have forgotten how much.
Sorry. None would vote for a man who freely admits he is a socialist.
Their policies seem almost contradictory too. If you like one you're sure to hate another.
Very strange.
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=107926751&page=1
It makes some of the arguments on here look like a Socratic dialogue.
If a celeb say "Go out and vote; it's important!!"; that's great. Kudos to them. It's the idea that someone who once played Doctor Who (as a random example) may have a better idea than me about who is best to run the country...
It is grammatically correct.