From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
So thats 3 polls all showing basically no change for reform after putingate. The British are a fair people and whipping up hysteria and quoting people out of context doesnt play well with them.
Which is presumably why 85% of the public in that survey aren't voting Reform.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Surely Jesus rose on the third day, not after three days...
On the first day (Good Friday) he died, on the second day (Saturday) not much happened, on the third day (Easter Sunday) he rose again from the dead; he ascended into heaven, and is seated at the right hand of God the Father.
Interesting exchange in the Facebook comments under this video, between Tory candidate James Cracknell and one of his fans
"Who knows who will be leading the party come 5th July", Tory candidate Cracknell said — adding a winking smiley face
Loyalty famously used to be the Troies' "secret weapon".
It seems to have completely evaporated now.
Yes. I am a moderate loyal Tory from the egg, always voted for them in general elections as the better of the options available, since 1974, brought up in middle class, public service class, Telegraph reading London household. My loyalty to the Toryism I have inherited is demonstrated by the fact I am voting Labour this time, as are most of the Tories I know.
Then, you aren't real Tories.
Sorry. None would vote for a man who freely admits he is a socialist.
The 'not real Tories' thing echoes some pretty ghastly politics elsewhere.
You'd vote for a Socialist every time above a Trotskyist.
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
Oh dear. The morning of July 5th is going to be horrible for you isn't it? I guess that is when you discover that women are the majority of the electorate.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Surely Jesus rose on the third day, not after three days...
On the first day (Good Friday) he died, on the second day (Saturday) not much happened, on the third day (Easter Sunday) he rose again from the dead; he ascended into heaven, and is seated at the right hand of God the Father.
There's a well defined difference between 3 ays and 3 clear days in English law. Fecked if I remember how it works.
Le Fisher at Quiberon just down the way. I presume it is a chain then? If you identified the brand but not the place? It’s lush
Ah! I hadn't actually realised there was more than one of them. The one at Carnac Plage is similarly swish and scene-y. Enjoy your trip!
I had no idea southern Brittany is so…. Posh. Its like a kind of Atlantic Côte d’Azur but it’s better because its not full of retired British tampon ad executives (naming no names - but I mean @roger aka rogerdamus. Roger. That’s who I mean. Roger. But I’m staying shtum I won’t reveal that I mean roger)
Also, wtf is wrong with the frogs. I am increasingly obsessed with the disjunct between their cushy lives and their political anger. I’m in morbihan. I just checked the euro elex results here
Yep. Bardella won. Ok you could argue that’s a family vote as the le pens are from morbihan but much of Brittany went for le pen as indeed did much of France
What’s their problem? Do they want even nicer roundabouts?
It’s not like it’s all massively expensive either. It isn’t. 🤷🏼♂️
It is something of a mystery. The place just drips ‘quality of life’. The climate is, largely lovely, the towns pristine, the roads out of this world. Hmm.
I was in another small Breton town today and the high street was busy (well, would have been busy if it wasn't shut for Monday), clean and full of nice shops and stuff. I guess if you actually fight back against creeping corporatisation then you get to keep your nice independent boulangeries and bouchers.
The shopping in French towns puts us to shame. The difference really is stark.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
Wonder if Leon has ever had dinner with Princess Anne?
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
So what is in my mind is, what is the “fatal” seat number for the Conservatives to fall to? At what point does the Conservative Party of the last 2 centuries never come back quite the same? That whatever UK Conservatism is called in future, it’s more PopCon in character, shaped by a rightwing drift to the economics of Boris and Truss, it loses that USP for sound finance, and with less centre ground members and MPs too than it has always had historically, things open up for Labour to become the dominant force in UK politics, in a mirror of the last 100 years.
What sort of seat range proves fatal to coming back as a centre right force, rather than a pop right one?
It's a bloody good question. I'd say the tipping point is if the Tories end up with fewer seats than the LDs. (I doubt they will btw.)
But... Anything below 150 Tory seats is uncharted territory, so we really don't know what the impact will be. It could be that 150 seats is the start of the end, or that the Tories drop to 10 seats and still recover. We just don't know.
My guess is 100. Partly because of base ten counting. But also...
We know that 150ish is survivable (see Conservatives 1997) and that 50 isn't a major party (Lib Dems 1997), so the crossover is between the two.
Also, it's a rule of thumb that about 1 in 3 MPs are capable of front bench roles really. (1/3 too old, too silly; 1/3 too young, too callow). 100 seats just about gives 35 front benchers; below that, shadowing becomes messy.
And the hard job for the Conservatives will be staffing and resourcing themselves through the coming exile. If they're probably ten years from power, why dedicate time to working for them? Why donate money to them when they'll have no power to repay favours?
Opposition sucks. I suspect the Conservatives have forgotten how much.
I have not forgotten how much having Labour in power sucks, and freely admit the next, what, 5, 10, 15 years to be dully awful.
My expectation is for Con well under 100, but also for the Conservative Party not to go away. There will remain a significant body of opinion well to the right of Labour, and I don't see that Reform can ever fully represent that. The Tories will be back.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Surely Jesus rose on the third day, not after three days...
On the first day (Good Friday) he died, on the second day (Saturday) not much happened, on the third day (Easter Sunday) he rose again from the dead; he ascended into heaven, and is seated at the right hand of God the Father.
Interesting exchange in the Facebook comments under this video, between Tory candidate James Cracknell and one of his fans
"Who knows who will be leading the party come 5th July", Tory candidate Cracknell said — adding a winking smiley face
Loyalty famously used to be the Troies' "secret weapon".
It seems to have completely evaporated now.
Yes. I am a moderate loyal Tory from the egg, always voted for them in general elections as the better of the options available, since 1974, brought up in middle class, public service class, Telegraph reading London household. My loyalty to the Toryism I have inherited is demonstrated by the fact I am voting Labour this time, as are most of the Tories I know.
Then, you aren't real Tories.
Sorry. None would vote for a man who freely admits he is a socialist.
Freely lies that he is a socialist. See also: T Blair, E Miliband.
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
Putting up a blue one implies one is a penis! Some of the Cowbridge farmers' fields have replaced their Alun Cairns placards with barely readable Reform signs. Is that what Farage's bunch call themselves? The signs are almost illegible. Perhaps they were drawn with crayons.
Am personally something of a connoisseur (and snob) regarding political signage. Based on four decades of designing (along with actual graphic artist), budgeting, targeting, distributing, maintaining and otherwise schelpping around with yardsigns
Best signs are ones that stand out, indeed pop out, when seen even at a distance. For August 2024 primary here in WA State, best seen so far is for Semi Bird for Governor (not making this up, I swear) the African American MAGA Republican hopeful almost certain to come in a distant 3rd in our Top Two primary. Most likely to advance to general election are fellow Republican Dave Reichert along with Democrat Bob Ferguson; also running in open-seat race for gov are 25 others on the August ballot.
But his sign is a winner. Navy blue lettering on white background with bit of teal; main element is "BIRD" in big letters below much smaller "Semi" and above "Governor for All of Washington" which is not just about diversity, but even more about geography as in Eastern WA and also most of Western WA versus the wicked Emerald City of Seattle. Nice touch is using outline map of the state as the space inside the "D" in BIRD.
Am sure you can see this baby for maybe half-mile in your car headlights at night on a straight highway
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
By the time this agument is over it will be 10119 days about a week to go.
This reminds me of a legendary incident in 2008 when two two bodybuilders had a 5 page unironic argument about how many days there are in a week on a bodybuilding forum.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Surely Jesus rose on the third day, not after three days...
On the first day (Good Friday) he died, on the second day (Saturday) not much happened, on the third day (Easter Sunday) he rose again from the dead; he ascended into heaven, and is seated at the right hand of God the Father.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage's view is stoopid. Ukraine's mere existence gave Putin a pretext to invade; as his speeches have said since. In his perverted mind, Ukraine *is* Russia. But it did not want to be Russia, and therefore it had to suffer a punishment beating until it becomes Russia.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
I don't even understand the argument being made here. Farage is saying it was a pretext, ok, and that Putin was wrong to use it, fine.
But by definition a pretext is not the real reason for an action, so even if we say for sake of argument the EU expanding was a pretext Putin used (in reality he used lots of different ones), clearly that did not matter since, well, it was a pretext. He'd have found another one, that's why it was a pretext.
But that is not what Farage is doing. He is clearly trying to criticise the EU and the West for expanding East. And the only way that makes sense is if he thinks that expansion was not a pretext, but in fact a justification.
Yes, he does make sure to say Putin should not have done what he did. But it simply makes no sense to go 'Look, we gave Putin a pretext and that was wrong of us' since someone else creating a pretext is still not our, or the EU's, fault, but he is trying to say it (partly) was.
If it was anyone but Putin's fault, it's not a pretext but a justification. If it is a pretext, then it's not the EU's fault as he keeps trying to claim, even if in part.
Try explaining all that to the lads in the Blackpool pub with Farage. They just want the foreigners out.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
The word that dare not be spoken - but MoonRabbit is right. Look at the Ipsos and YouGov MRPs. The Lib Dems did much better in the latter and that is the difference between polling a well targeted 13% and polling a well targeted 10%. Cons go down like ninepins in some very remarkable constituencies. The LibDem GOTV next week will matter like never before.
So what is in my mind is, what is the “fatal” seat number for the Conservatives to fall to? At what point does the Conservative Party of the last 2 centuries never come back quite the same? That whatever UK Conservatism is called in future, it’s more PopCon in character, shaped by a rightwing drift to the economics of Boris and Truss, it loses that USP for sound finance, and with less centre ground members and MPs too than it has always had historically, things open up for Labour to become the dominant force in UK politics, in a mirror of the last 100 years.
What sort of seat range proves fatal to coming back as a centre right force, rather than a pop right one?
It's a bloody good question. I'd say the tipping point is if the Tories end up with fewer seats than the LDs. (I doubt they will btw.)
But... Anything below 150 Tory seats is uncharted territory, so we really don't know what the impact will be. It could be that 150 seats is the start of the end, or that the Tories drop to 10 seats and still recover. We just don't know.
My guess is 100. Partly because of base ten counting. But also...
We know that 150ish is survivable (see Conservatives 1997) and that 50 isn't a major party (Lib Dems 1997), so the crossover is between the two.
Also, it's a rule of thumb that about 1 in 3 MPs are capable of front bench roles really. (1/3 too old, too silly; 1/3 too young, too callow). 100 seats just about gives 35 front benchers; below that, shadowing becomes messy.
And the hard job for the Conservatives will be staffing and resourcing themselves through the coming exile. If they're probably ten years from power, why dedicate time to working for them? Why donate money to them when they'll have no power to repay favours?
Opposition sucks. I suspect the Conservatives have forgotten how much.
I have not forgotten how much having Labour in power sucks, and freely admit the next, what, 5, 10, 15 years to be dully awful.
My expectation is for Con well under 100, but also for the Conservative Party not to go away. There will remain a significant body of opinion well to the right of Labour, and I don't see that Reform can ever fully represent that. The Tories will be back.
My dad (a small businessman in construction) said that the first two or three years of Labour being in power were brilliant. Money being splurged everywhere; lots of work. Then came the hangover from the overindulgence.
Now that was sixties and seventies Labour, and I dare to ask him what he, as a retiree, thinks of this Conservative government...
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Surely Jesus rose on the third day, not after three days...
On the first day (Good Friday) he died, on the second day (Saturday) not much happened, on the third day (Easter Sunday) he rose again from the dead; he ascended into heaven, and is seated at the right hand of God the Father.
Actually if you believe all that, he rose on Easter Sunday but ascended only 40 days later on Ascension Day, also celebrated on a Sunday.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally write: Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
"In the next 12 days" includes today and the time after the polls close and Starmer becomes PM.
It is grammatically correct.
Why do the polls after polling day matter? It’s only nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a simple fact! Are you another LauraK counter?
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
Sadly, I've only ever met one royal, and on one occasion. So my stories would be rather limited.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally write: Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
"In the next 12 days" includes today and the time after the polls close and Starmer becomes PM.
It is grammatically correct.
Why do the polls after polling day matter? It’s only nine and a bit days until polling days. That is a simple fact! Are you another LauraK counter?
The only poll that matters is the one that comes out after voting closes.
Labour could win every poll between now and the election but if the poll that comes out after the polls close says the Tories won, then Sunak remains PM. It won't happen, but it absolutely matters!
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
By the time this agument is over it will be 10119 days about a week to go.
This reminds me of a legendary incident in 2008 when two two bodybuilders had a 5 page unironic argument about how many days there are in a week on a bodybuilding forum.
It makes some of the arguments on here look like a Socratic dialogue.
Ten if Napoleon had had his way.
Bollocks. Napoleon abolished the Republican calendar by imperial decree in 1805 and made sure that the good old fashioned Gregorian calendar started again on 1 January 1806. You knew where you were with Boney.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
More fundamentally, having just voted for the government, he’s posted that “he just wants Starmer in number ten”. Could any voter look more ridiculous?
It's been a while since I've been politically active.
Polling Day was not a day for campaigning or trying to change minds. It was all about checking who had voted and ensuring the vote you had identified as yours was going out and that was all you did from 6am to 9.30pm or later.
Delivering targeted "Good Morning" leaflets to telling to knocking up (ooer) was simply about getting the vote out.
We even worked with other parties to ensure all got the record of who had voted.
It's probably all different now.
I think there's plenty of camaraderie at volunteer level, it's the big knobs who are big knobs
Is it me or do I detect a tacit cooperation between Labour and the LDs? No sign whatsoever of the Labour candidate here, even though they came second in 2017. No Labour leaflets, no Labour submission for the local paper's slot for candidates to give their pitch.
I hear similar but opposite in Tory seats where Labour look to be the strongest challenger.
I just got an email from Imelda Staunton (seriously).
If the (late) Queen is supporting Labour, the Tories really are in trouble.
I'm amused by celebs screeching their support of *any* political party, and LOL at anyone whose vote is actually swayed by such an endorsement.
If a celeb say "Go out and vote; it's important!!"; that's great. Kudos to them. It's the idea that someone who once played Doctor Who (as a random example) may have a better idea than me about who is best to run the country...
Indeed. Are people voting on the celebrity’s say so because of a character they played? It’s unlikely to be anything to do with their real life behaviour as the public generally don’t have a clue what they are like in real life.
Like getting an email from Armie Hammer thinking “ooh he played that Lone Ranger so he must be one of the good guys so I will vote for whoever he’s voting for” not knowing the cannibalism fetish and the whole sexual assault allegations.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Counting is an ancient problem, and is mostly about exclusive and inclusive counting, and a bit of a puzzle for lawyers too.
Anciently, the tradition 'three days' from death to resurrection of Jesus is odd; death on Friday afternoon. Resurrected by early Sunday morning, is a day and a half to us.
Is a school half term (Mon-Fri) really 5 days, or is it really the Friday 3.30 to 8 am Monday, 10 days later?
Surely Jesus rose on the third day, not after three days...
On the first day (Good Friday) he died, on the second day (Saturday) not much happened, on the third day (Easter Sunday) he rose again from the dead; he ascended into heaven, and is seated at the right hand of God the Father.
Actually if you believe all that, he rose on Easter Sunday but ascended only 40 days later on Ascension Day, also celebrated on a Sunday.
Not any more it ain't. The leftist, pinko, liberal, Tablet reading (aka the Guardian at Prayer) practice of moving the Ascension to a Sunday was rescinded a few years back by the Bishops in a fit of reactionary zeal. Ditto Three Kings Day.
Poor old Corpus Christi didn't get a repreive though
In 2019 postal votes made up 21% of valid ballots counted . Even if there’s some late swing back to the Tories they’ll already be facing an uphill struggle.
Pollsters really should be asking now about postal votes .
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
There's a hell of a lot of penis-free households around the ultra-safe seat of North Dorset then.
Still yet to see an election poster or sign for anyone but the LDs, bizarrely.
The LDs aren't at their best. I find it quite incredible that they have managed to arrive at this election so ill prepared and with a leader who really isn't up to it. (I did think he did quite well on the QT debate though)
Their policies seem almost contradictory too. If you like one you're sure to hate another.
Very strange.
I realise you're the party's greatest critic but as the Conservatives are about to find out, it's a very long road back from a very big defeat. From 1970, it took 27 years for the Liberals, later the LDs to get above 40 seats. This time, they may get there after 9 years.
The party I joined and worked for died in the fires of the Coalition - this has been the birth (or rebirth) of a new and different party but they have recently rediscovered the community politics roots.
They will prosper picking over the carcass of the Conservative Party along with the other scavengers but it's what they do afterward that will be important. How to take the success beyond the core of seats into the large areas which see no LD activity fron one decade to the next - that's the real challenge, building a bigger national structure to be in a stronger position next time.
Defining a policy position against the Starmer "Big Tent" will evolve with time but that's the other challenge - to establish a distinctive voice which can become the genuine Opposition.
It's been a while since I've been politically active.
Polling Day was not a day for campaigning or trying to change minds. It was all about checking who had voted and ensuring the vote you had identified as yours was going out and that was all you did from 6am to 9.30pm or later.
Delivering targeted "Good Morning" leaflets to telling to knocking up (ooer) was simply about getting the vote out.
We even worked with other parties to ensure all got the record of who had voted.
It's probably all different now.
I think there's plenty of camaraderie at volunteer level, it's the big knobs who are big knobs
Is it me or do I detect a tacit cooperation between Labour and the LDs? No sign whatsoever of the Labour candidate here, even though they came second in 2017. No Labour leaflets, no Labour submission for the local paper's slot for candidates to give their pitch.
I hear similar but opposite in Tory seats where Labour look to be the strongest challenger.
I think its a non aggression pact unofficially for mutual benefit
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
More fundamentally, having just voted for the government, he’s posted that “he just wants Starmer in number ten”. Could any voter look more ridiculous?
Maybe he is trolling you? If so, very effectively.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage's view is stoopid. Ukraine's mere existence gave Putin a pretext to invade; as his speeches have said since. In his perverted mind, Ukraine *is* Russia. But it did not want to be Russia, and therefore it had to suffer a punishment beating until it becomes Russia.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
I don't even understand the argument being made here. Farage is saying it was a pretext, ok, and that Putin was wrong to use it, fine.
But by definition a pretext is not the real reason for an action, so even if we say for sake of argument the EU expanding was a pretext Putin used (in reality he used lots of different ones), clearly that did not matter since, well, it was a pretext. He'd have found another one, that's why it was a pretext.
But that is not what Farage is doing. He is clearly trying to criticise the EU and the West for expanding East. And the only way that makes sense is if he thinks that expansion was not a pretext, but in fact a justification.
Yes, he does make sure to say Putin should not have done what he did. But it simply makes no sense to go 'Look, we gave Putin a pretext and that was wrong of us' since someone else creating a pretext is still not our, or the EU's, fault, but he is trying to say it (partly) was.
If it was anyone but Putin's fault, it's not a pretext but a justification. If it is a pretext, then it's not the EU's fault as he keeps trying to claim, even if in part.
Try explaining all that to the lads in the Blackpool pub with Farage. They just want the foreigners out.
Indeed. That will be why Reform scored a mere 16.9% in the recent Blackpool South by-election, with Labour on 58.9%. Just not enough 'lads', I guess.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
Farage's view is stoopid. Ukraine's mere existence gave Putin a pretext to invade; as his speeches have said since. In his perverted mind, Ukraine *is* Russia. But it did not want to be Russia, and therefore it had to suffer a punishment beating until it becomes Russia.
It's f-all to do with NATO, or the EU. It's to do with Putin's ridiculous reading of history and an aggrandised view of his country's place in the world. And a rather weird view of self-determination and democracy.
I don't even understand the argument being made here. Farage is saying it was a pretext, ok, and that Putin was wrong to use it, fine.
But by definition a pretext is not the real reason for an action, so even if we say for sake of argument the EU expanding was a pretext Putin used (in reality he used lots of different ones), clearly that did not matter since, well, it was a pretext. He'd have found another one, that's why it was a pretext.
But that is not what Farage is doing. He is clearly trying to criticise the EU and the West for expanding East. And the only way that makes sense is if he thinks that expansion was not a pretext, but in fact a justification.
Yes, he does make sure to say Putin should not have done what he did. But it simply makes no sense to go 'Look, we gave Putin a pretext and that was wrong of us' since someone else creating a pretext is still not our, or the EU's, fault, but he is trying to say it (partly) was.
If it was anyone but Putin's fault, it's not a pretext but a justification. If it is a pretext, then it's not the EU's fault as he keeps trying to claim, even if in part.
Try explaining all that to the lads in the Blackpool pub with Farage. They just want the foreigners out.
Why are you obsessed with this fucking pub in Blackpool and the "lads" there? The knob didn't even cheer the right team. Seriously, you're an embarrassment to the good name of Russian bots everywhere. You're about as useful to the cause as tits on a fish.
In 2019 postal votes made up 21% of valid ballots counted . Even if there’s some late swing back to the Tories they’ll already be facing an uphill struggle.
Pollsters really should be asking now about postal votes .
They already are.
How does that work - can we see it in the pollsters' data tables?
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
Why not compromise in spirit of true PB amity/enmity and say it's about time needed for a longish Test Match?
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
There's a hell of a lot of penis-free households around the ultra-safe seat of North Dorset then.
Still yet to see an election poster or sign for anyone but the LDs, bizarrely.
The LDs aren't at their best. I find it quite incredible that they have managed to arrive at this election so ill prepared and with a leader who really isn't up to it. (I did think he did quite well on the QT debate though)
Their policies seem almost contradictory too. If you like one you're sure to hate another.
Very strange.
I realise you're the party's greatest critic but as the Conservatives are about to find out, it's a very long road back from a very big defeat. From 1970, it took 27 years for the Liberals, later the LDs to get above 40 seats. This time, they may get there after 9 years.
The party I joined and worked for died in the fires of the Coalition - this has been the birth (or rebirth) of a new and different party but they have recently rediscovered the community politics roots.
They will prosper picking over the carcass of the Conservative Party along with the other scavengers but it's what they do afterward that will be important. How to take the success beyond the core of seats into the large areas which see no LD activity fron one decade to the next - that's the real challenge, building a bigger national structure to be in a stronger position next time.
Defining a policy position against the Starmer "Big Tent" will evolve with time but that's the other challenge - to establish a distinctive voice which can become the genuine Opposition.
The future problem for the LDs is that they will have a sizeable group of MPs which FPTP will have gifted them mostly from relatively prosperous southern seats, yet as a parliamentary party their instinct will be to oppose Labour if not from the left, certainly not from the small-c conservative right. Holding a lot of those seats at a second election will depend heavily upon the Tories not having the sense to veer sharply back towards the pragmatic centre ground.
So maybe not so bad, then, at least in the short term?
And with the upside that in many of their gains there may be a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze when it comes to their re-election contest, when the tactical argument couldn’t be clearer.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
Wonder if Leon has ever had dinner with Princess Anne?
He's never walked 6,266.5 miles. Which was what I had to do for the dinner.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
Wonder if Leon has ever had dinner with Princess Anne?
He's never walked 6,266.5 miles. Which was what I had to do for the dinner.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Really?
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
Since its now 8pm I'll say 11.
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
It's been a while since I've been politically active.
Polling Day was not a day for campaigning or trying to change minds. It was all about checking who had voted and ensuring the vote you had identified as yours was going out and that was all you did from 6am to 9.30pm or later.
Delivering targeted "Good Morning" leaflets to telling to knocking up (ooer) was simply about getting the vote out.
We even worked with other parties to ensure all got the record of who had voted.
It's probably all different now.
I think there's plenty of camaraderie at volunteer level, it's the big knobs who are big knobs
Is it me or do I detect a tacit cooperation between Labour and the LDs? No sign whatsoever of the Labour candidate here, even though they came second in 2017. No Labour leaflets, no Labour submission for the local paper's slot for candidates to give their pitch.
I hear similar but opposite in Tory seats where Labour look to be the strongest challenger.
It varies! There are seats as you describe where one party is just going through the motions, and seats where "2019 plus 15%" puts Labour second or first, but the LibDems are defending 2nd place. Didcot and Wantage is a ckassic example of the latter. The LibDem response is to deny that Labour has any chance, with invented bar charts without numbers showing tiny Labour votes - it may work, but it's certainly disreputable.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
Why not compromise in spirit of true PB amity/enmity and say it's about time needed for a longish Test Match?
Like what they had in South Africa in the Good Old Days?
(No not those "good" old days, the good old days when South African Test Matches were unlimited time (although one was drawn after about twelve days as otherwise England would have missed the boat home).
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
By the time this agument is over it will be 10119 days about a week to go.
This reminds me of a legendary incident in 2008 when two two bodybuilders had a 5 page unironic argument about how many days there are in a week on a bodybuilding forum.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Yep, Dutch salute KLAXON
I never did grasp what the Dutch Salute was/is. Some of tactical voting strategy?
I just searched and ahem.......I was not expecting the urban dictionary meaning
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
If you say so though others may say so what - it is all rather silly a bit like having no cash
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
Why not compromise in spirit of true PB amity/enmity and say it's about time needed for a longish Test Match?
The last time a Test Match was allowed to continue that long they had to abandon it as a draw it because otherwise the England team would have missed the boat home from South Africa.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
Wonder if Leon has ever had dinner with Princess Anne?
He's never walked 6,266.5 miles. Which was what I had to do for the dinner.
The Proclaimers don't know they're born.
Yeah, like all Scotsmen, they were utterly lacking in ambition. The Proclaimers are lightweights in the walking stakes.
(Runs for cover).
When I started the walk, I was expecting to only do 5,500 miles (I extended it by not taking ferries). We walked down Leith Walk at the start singing : "And I would walk 5,500 miles..."
A happy memory. Or at least it would be, if it had not been for trying to find somewhere to have a pee after all the champagne we'd drunk at Edinburgh Castle esplanade.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
More fundamentally, having just voted for the government, he’s posted that “he just wants Starmer in number ten”. Could any voter look more ridiculous?
He’s far from unique in feeling divided between tribal loyalty and political reality
I have no such loyalty myself. But I know plenty of sensible people that do
Eg Labourites under Corbyn. Several of my leftier friends despised Corbyn and actually wanted “sensible” Theresa May to win, because they feared his anti Semitism, his pro IRA larks, and much else, but in the end - they admitted to me - in the polling booth they just couldn’t help it. A vote for Labour and Corbyn is what they did, even as they prayed for TMay to prevail, it is hard to change the emotional habit of a long lifetime. This is a human thing
You apparently don’t understand human things which is why you get on better with lower mammals
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
There's a hell of a lot of penis-free households around the ultra-safe seat of North Dorset then.
Still yet to see an election poster or sign for anyone but the LDs, bizarrely.
The LDs aren't at their best. I find it quite incredible that they have managed to arrive at this election so ill prepared and with a leader who really isn't up to it. (I did think he did quite well on the QT debate though)
Their policies seem almost contradictory too. If you like one you're sure to hate another.
Very strange.
I realise you're the party's greatest critic but as the Conservatives are about to find out, it's a very long road back from a very big defeat. From 1970, it took 27 years for the Liberals, later the LDs to get above 40 seats. This time, they may get there after 9 years.
The party I joined and worked for died in the fires of the Coalition - this has been the birth (or rebirth) of a new and different party but they have recently rediscovered the community politics roots.
They will prosper picking over the carcass of the Conservative Party along with the other scavengers but it's what they do afterward that will be important. How to take the success beyond the core of seats into the large areas which see no LD activity fron one decade to the next - that's the real challenge, building a bigger national structure to be in a stronger position next time.
Defining a policy position against the Starmer "Big Tent" will evolve with time but that's the other challenge - to establish a distinctive voice which can become the genuine Opposition.
I'm naturally a Tory, but left the party last year in general disgust. In my political life the vote I'd like to have been able to place was for a continuation of the coalition of 2010.
I have no idea how I'm going to vote - it's always been Tory and I imagine it will be again, but I'd like to have an alternative. The alternative should be the LDs, but I simply can't do that. Could I vote Labour? Yes - they're the most coherent, but I'm nearly sure I won't.
In 2019 postal votes made up 21% of valid ballots counted . Even if there’s some late swing back to the Tories they’ll already be facing an uphill struggle.
Pollsters really should be asking now about postal votes .
They already are.
How does that work - can we see it in the pollsters' data tables?
They don't separate them, they've adjusted the questions. The days tables I looked at most recently had the vote intention question as something like, "how do you intend to vote, or how have you already voted?"
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
More fundamentally, having just voted for the government, he’s posted that “he just wants Starmer in number ten”. Could any voter look more ridiculous?
Give it a rest - your personal animosity is pathetic
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Yep, Dutch salute KLAXON
I never did grasp what the Dutch Salute was/is. Some of tactical voting strategy?
I just searched and ahem.......I was not expecting the urban dictionary meaning
As a practicing psephologist MoonRabit is NOT shy about putting her best points forward in learned PB debate.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
More fundamentally, having just voted for the government, he’s posted that “he just wants Starmer in number ten”. Could any voter look more ridiculous?
Maybe he is trolling you? If so, very effectively.
Trolling via innumeracy would be a new one even on here. I can see why you might appreciate it though.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Yep, Dutch salute KLAXON
I never did grasp what the Dutch Salute was/is. Some of tactical voting strategy?
I just searched and ahem.......I was not expecting the urban dictionary meaning
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
If you say so though others may say so what - it is all rather silly a bit like having no cash
Having no cash isn't silly, it's just no fun at all.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
More fundamentally, having just voted for the government, he’s posted that “he just wants Starmer in number ten”. Could any voter look more ridiculous?
He’s far from unique in feeling divided between tribal loyalty and political reality
I have no such loyalty myself. But I know plenty of sensible people that do
Eg Labourites under Corbyn. Several of my leftier friends despised Corbyn and actually wanted “sensible” Theresa May to win, because they feared his anti Semitism, his pro IRA larks, and much else, but in the end - they admitted to me - in the polling booth they just couldn’t help it. A vote for Labour and Corbyn is what they did, even as they prayed for TMay to prevail, it is hard to change the emotional habit of a long lifetime. This is a human thing
You apparently don’t understand human things which is why you get on better with lower mammals
He has become very nasty and really is it necessary
His attitude has seen posters leave the site, but I am not giving him the pleasure and I am grateful that @Heathener and yourself with others have called him out
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
If you say so though others may say so what - it is all rather silly a bit like having no cash
Having no cash isn't silly, it's just no fun at all.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Really?
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
Since its now 8pm I'll say 11.
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
Yes. Those are two different contexts for use of the word day, as I explained earlier. This isn't unusual for English, why is that so difficult for you to understand?
If we assume the PM switch happens at 11am on July 5th then it's just over ten and a half days until PM Starmer, though typically people would say 11 days whatever time that question was asked today.
Thinking more about this, I think the old-fashioned way of saying something like this would be, "It's eleven days until the day we expect Starmer becomes PM."
But anyway, this is exactly analogous to counting steps on a flight of stairs, and surely you don't count a single step as two?
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
If you say so though others may say so what - it is all rather silly a bit like having no cash
Having no cash isn't silly, it's just no fun at all.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
More fundamentally, having just voted for the government, he’s posted that “he just wants Starmer in number ten”. Could any voter look more ridiculous?
He’s far from unique in feeling divided between tribal loyalty and political reality
I have no such loyalty myself. But I know plenty of sensible people that do
Eg Labourites under Corbyn. Several of my leftier friends despised Corbyn and actually wanted “sensible” Theresa May to win, because they feared his anti Semitism, his pro IRA larks, and much else, but in the end - they admitted to me - in the polling booth they just couldn’t help it. A vote for Labour and Corbyn is what they did, even as they prayed for TMay to prevail, it is hard to change the emotional habit of a long lifetime. This is a human thing
You apparently don’t understand human things which is why you get on better with lower mammals
He has become very nasty and really is it necessary
His attitude has seen posters leave the site, but I am not giving him the pleasure and I am grateful that @Heathener and yourself with others have called him out
No worries. He’s a dork with issues. Stay healthy! I enjoy your patriotic travel posts from North Wales, they remind me that Britain is not entirely rubbish…..
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Really?
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
Since its now 8pm I'll say 11.
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
Yes. Those are two different contexts for use of the word day, as I explained earlier. This isn't unusual for English, why is that so difficult for you to understand?
If we assume the PM switch happens at 11am on July 5th then it's just over ten and a half days until PM Starmer, though typically people would say 11 days whatever time that question was asked today.
Thinking more about this, I think the old-fashioned way of saying something like this would be, "It's eleven days until the day we expect Starmer becomes PM."
But anyway, this is exactly analogous to counting steps on a flight of stairs, and surely you don't count a single step as two?
You're right I don't count any step as 2, I count each as 1 - but you don't discount any either.
Just as I'd say my house has 2 stories in it, the ground floor and the top floor. You don't discount any either.
Looking at the days between now and when Starmer comes in, the total is 12.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
If you say so though others may say so what - it is all rather silly a bit like having no cash
Having no cash isn't silly, it's just no fun at all.
I need it for parking at various parking places
I've not heard that expression for a long time! Good to hear that you're fighting fit again!
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Because if an Independent Scotland said they are joining the EU, and will then allow EU snoop devices along the border with us, on their side, we would be completely in the WRONG to invade them. Would we not? Simples.
Nobody is saying that Putin wasn't wrong to invade Ukraine. Farage has suggested that the EU expanding into Ukraine gave Putin a pretext to invade. Putin being 'wrong' to do so is neither here nor there - we're not 5 years old.
I’m sorry, I thought he had gone further than saying “just a pretext”.
Now, it's rightwing Youtube, headbanging comments are to be expected, but with it being a Murdoch/pro Tory channel, might one expect 15%, 10%, even 5% of the commentors to be negative toward Farage's remarks? Where are these disgusted Redwall voters who will flock back to Sunak?
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
If you say so though others may say so what - it is all rather silly a bit like having no cash
Which the Tories will after this election.
(he's retiring)
As an aside. It is interesting how so many of the leading Tory Eurosceptics are Roman Catholic. Bill Cash, IDS, Moggster, Anne Widdicombe, Boris Johnson, Gove (allegedly), Sir Edward Leigh.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Today is a day, that is not debatable either.
Only on PB would we find people quibbling over how long it is until a fixed point in time happens.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Really?
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
Since its now 8pm I'll say 11.
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
Arrive at noon on Day 1, depart at noon on Day 5. You are there for 96 hours = 4 days.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Really?
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
Since its now 8pm I'll say 11.
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
Arrive at noon on Day 1, depart at noon on Day 5. You are there for 96 hours = 4 days.
5 days, the clue was in your names "day 1" and "day 5". With days 2, 3 and 4 in-between.
It may only be 4 full days, but 5 discrete days in total.
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
If you say so though others may say so what - it is all rather silly a bit like having no cash
Which the Tories will after this election.
(he's retiring)
As an aside. It is interesting how so many of the leading Tory Eurosceptics are Roman Catholic. Bill Cash, IDS, Moggster, Anne Widdicombe, Boris Johnson, Gove (allegedly), Sir Edward Leigh.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Clearly Farages comments arent hurting Reform. Quite a lot of people agree with him and I suppose if he changes the one sided conversation on Ukraine in the Uk with public support that may make our leaders decisions regarding extra support to ukraine more difficult.
It's probably not so much that people agree with his Putin comments as that they're more concerned with issues like migration, woke-ness, etc.
Yes thats definitely part of it. Farage also mentioned today Boris Johnson said something similar to him back in 2016.
Johnson made exactly the same remarks about the EU provoking Russia over Ukraine as Farage. He had the gumption to make those remarks before the recent invasion.
But yes. Farage and Johnson are two cheeks of the same.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
BigG literally wrote: “Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling in the next 12 days.”
I pointed out that it was only nine and a bit days until polling day, not 12. If you want to be really precise it is nine days, 11 hours and four minutes until polls open.
Why not compromise in spirit of true PB amity/enmity and say it's about time needed for a longish Test Match?
The last time a Test Match was allowed to continue that long they had to abandon it as a draw it because otherwise the England team would have missed the boat home from South Africa.
I love cricket and test cricket above all other forms, but even I might have found that a tad dull…
Peter Hitchens: "Yes, it was a lawless putsch. My inch-by-inch and line-by-line examination of the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's legitimate President in 2014 (swiftly condoned, to their lasting shame, by the Western democracies)". [Plus link to an article he wrote on the subject in April 23
Peter Hitchens confirms once again he's as thick as pigshit, thanks for the reminder.
Climate change denier too. Moron status confirmed.
Another issue where the three main parties and their fellow travellers have the same view, view anyone who dissents as a cretin and then wonder why people like Meloni, Le Pen and Farage start getting lots of votes and decide it is because they are thick and bigoted, in much the same way a Georgian Aristocrat regarded the peasants.
Anthropogenic climate change is happening - that is a fact. The main issue is how to tackle the issue. The neoliberals want to allow big business to thrive whilst also paying lip service to the idea of being environmentally friendly, so they move taxes onto consumers rather than producers of CO2 - the petrol hikes that many rural Europeans so despise because it makes rural living more expensive is a good example of this. The right / far right want to pretend climate change isn't happening and move on to a scarcity model of politics - there isn't enough left for the Volk, so we must kick out the foreigner (and the dissenters who aren't really people like us anyway). The left propose the only viable alternative - investment in renewable energy and a reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This will mean huge phase shifts (reduced plastic use, reduced usage of hydrocarbon based fertilisers, etc), but at least the left are willing to say what the problem is (excess production and consumption for the benefit of capital) and where to get the resources to tackle the issue (those who already hoard capital) without having to scapegoat immigrants.
There is another option and that's to value sustainability and ecological impact beside profit as a business motive. It's no good making money if you're destroying the world. Supporting businesses which are ecologically sustainable and seek to mitigate the impact of climate change would be sensible options for a more business-oriented Government and if that means companies who refuse to be sustainable go to the wall so be it.
There is a fine line but Govenrment can also be about influencing public behaviour and educating people as to what is happening, why it is happening and the consequences especially for those parts of the world where the impacts are more keenly and immediately felt.
We too face issues from rising sea levels and a climate with more frequent extremes of weather and that means sensible thinking on houses including not building housing developments on flood plains.
The problem with capitalistic growth is that it is ideologically wedded not only to profit, but ever growing profit, which demand ever more extraction and squeezing of labour, along with increasingly trying to foist externalities onto public coffers (or ignoring them completely) makes it really difficult. Already we have right wingers and big businesses saying there is too much green tape and regulation etc. We also know that consumption and CO2 production is skewwed heavily towards the extremely wealthy - both globally and within individual nations. The answer, more equitable distribution of resources and an overall decrease in consumption reliant on fossil fuels, doesn't really square with the continuation of the profit motive as it currently exists.
You don't believe in net zero, do you?
If we have net zero, why do we need "equitable distribution of resources" for climate reasons, considering we can scale up or down consumption/production and anything times zero equals zero.
If we don't have net zero, how do we stop climate change?
If you were serious about tackling climate change, you wouldn't believe any of the garbage you're spouting.
I mean, I don't think globally we're going to get to net zero because many of the people saying we will are hoping carbon capture works better than it currently does - atm efficiency is too low to depend on it. So to get to net zero it will not just be countries sequestering any carbon output to equal zero (as the tech to sequester is currently not good enough), it will require a reduction in emissions. Reduction in emissions will require a reduction in production and consumption. If the logic of growth for the average worker is "you get a smaller slice, but we'll grow the pie", the logic of static growth or even degrowth for the average worker should be "you get a bigger slice, but we're slowly shrinking the pie". That will have to come via wealth redistribution - those who have a huge amount will have to give up their hoarded resources for the benefits of those who have less or none.
So you don't give a fuck about the planet and want to trash the environment and keep emitting pollution then.
Pissing about with marginal reductions in "the size of the pie" will do bugger all to reduce emissions, since we'll still have billions of people making emissions globally and the rest of the world has no desire to shrink their size of the pie - quite rightly too.
Only investing in clean technology gets us to net zero and that requires no change in pie size. And clean technologies can be adopted by the rest of the planet too.
It doesn't take much scraping the green away to reveal the nasty anti-growth agenda beneath. Carbon capture needn't even be about 'storage technology' - it can be done by dressing UK fields with basalt, to the tune of 45% of Britain's overall net zero target, and the level of carbon uptake can be verified easily by testing of soils. Terrifying for the likes of 148grss because it doesn't involve the forced decimation of the economy, which is their actual goal.
It also remineralises the soil and makes it far more fertile.
I used SEER rockdust on my allotment and it was very effective.
Funny thing is they smear me as a climate denier but I grow my own veg travel mostly by public transport and drive very little (had the car since new the thick end of two decades ago and will keep it till it packs up (the greenest way possible of driving due to the carbon cost of construction and disposal). Probably one of the greenest here in terms of what I actually do.
If they actually believed what they say then the COP and WEF summits would be held by videoconference.
What they really mean is that they want a subsistence existence stuck in 15 minute cities for most so that there is unspoiled Lebensraum for them and they can air condition their mansions and fly their private jets without the earth running out of resources any time soon. Oil isn't infinite. Lets not let the plebs waste it, what?
If you don’t want to sound like a stark raving conspiracy theorist, perhaps drop the bit about the WEF and… well, the conspiracy theory bit.
Thing is there is a bit of a point about scientists sounding alarm bells about global travel and then all meeting up after travelling thousands of miles, usually by air. Now you and I both know that international conferences are vastly better for information exchange, project seeding etc than teams/zoom meetings etc. But it is all too easy for the lay person to look at that and think that if it were really serious* then the scientists would lead by example.
*It is.
Its not just international conferences that are vastly better in person, so is almost everything else people fly for too.
Which is why cutting flights is not a credible suggestion and is not going to happen. If it won't happen for these conferences, it won't happen anywhere else either.
What is a credible suggestion is developing net zero clean technologies for flights. Which will take longer to implement than say net zero clean technologies for cars, but should still happen ultimately.
It's not either/or. We can cut some flights, and should, and we should also be developing and implementing clean technologies.
The problem is so great that doing one of the things won't be enough. We need to do all of the things!
I disagree. The problem is so great we need to be doing clean technologies.
Cutting a few flights does piss all. If 99% of flights still take off, then reducing the flights by 1% does bugger all.
OTOH ensuring the flights that take off emit 10% less in one step, and then emit nothing eventually, transitions us to clean flights without cutting anything.
The latter is a serious, credible, scientific way to address the problem.
It would be if it was possible to achieve it with the laws of physics as we understand it.
Just the initial 10% involves switching to burning oil crops (as with E5 and E10 petrol) so reducing arable land needed for food and putting food prices up with particular impact on the global south, most of whom don't get to fly anywhere - ever.
There are other ways. Colleagues here are working on growing bio oils in algae. No need to agricultural land.
Yet. Yet.
I'm all for things like bio oils in algae. If so much money hadn't been spaffed away to spivs pushing wind turbines when there is not yet the technology to store what they generate, we might be further down that road.
There absolutely is the technology to store what they generate, its just not completely rolled out yet.
Within a decade it will be though. It will be on my driveway.
From what I recall, nowhere near enough energy storage in cars for that. Or in all transportation.
We typically use about 35GW of electricity nationwide.
33 million cars on the road. Assume an average of 80 kWh battery in each.
Equals 2,640 GWh. Or just over 3 days worth of 100% of our electricity.
Unless I've screwed up my maths, in which case I'm sure somebody on pedanticbetting will spot it.
Except moving to electric will also increase electricity demand; e.g. for those cars, and heating replacing gas boilers, etc, etc.
The ability to time shift a day or two of power has the effect of massively increasing generation capacity. Think night time rate electricity.
It's been a while since I've been politically active.
Polling Day was not a day for campaigning or trying to change minds. It was all about checking who had voted and ensuring the vote you had identified as yours was going out and that was all you did from 6am to 9.30pm or later.
Delivering targeted "Good Morning" leaflets to telling to knocking up (ooer) was simply about getting the vote out.
We even worked with other parties to ensure all got the record of who had voted.
It's probably all different now.
I think there's plenty of camaraderie at volunteer level, it's the big knobs who are big knobs
Is it me or do I detect a tacit cooperation between Labour and the LDs? No sign whatsoever of the Labour candidate here, even though they came second in 2017. No Labour leaflets, no Labour submission for the local paper's slot for candidates to give their pitch.
I hear similar but opposite in Tory seats where Labour look to be the strongest challenger.
It varies! There are seats as you describe where one party is just going through the motions, and seats where "2019 plus 15%" puts Labour second or first, but the LibDems are defending 2nd place. Didcot and Wantage is a ckassic example of the latter. The LibDem response is to deny that Labour has any chance, with invented bar charts without numbers showing tiny Labour votes - it may work, but it's certainly disreputable.
Our local Lab candidate had a bar chart all of his very own...
ANME update: I posted the wife's ballot paper (no dog poo bins were harmed in the casting of this ballot). Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me. Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
Reject the division of the Nationalists and vote for the Lib Dems.
If the Lib Dems are likeliest to win here, I will. Same with Labour.
I've made it clear for years now that my vote is going to be whatever I feel is best to shift the Tories out. I voted Lib Dem last time and I have no regrets even though they had no hope in that election in my seat. "Bollocks to Brexit" was the right message for me.
But this time it's a punishment vote. Tories out. Show me evidence that puts one party ahead of the others, and I'll listen.
Hi Farooq. Question is this - how will you feel on Friday week if you vote SNP and Seamus Logan is going around saying that you voted for independence? That you voted to blame Westminster for the state of public services whilst not actually doing anything to fix things?
I understand the desire to punish beat the Tories - I want ELE. But uniquely in our corner of Scotland we have this perverse choice, where one party of chaos, cuts and incompetence says you have to vote for them or you get the other party of incompetence, cuts and chaos.
I am the only candidate actually engaging with people on the issues being raised on the doorstep. The NHS. Schools. Energy, connectivity. With policies to match.
Can I win? Absolutely - if enough people vote for me. Remember that its less than a decade since parties were winning from 4th. And there is a mood in the constituency the like of which I've never seen before. Spoke to a lady in Pennan earlier who came up to me. "We're completely scunnered, and the other two don't get it". She's voting for me, a first time LibDem. She isn't alone...
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Really?
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
Since its now 8pm I'll say 11.
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
Yes. Those are two different contexts for use of the word day, as I explained earlier. This isn't unusual for English, why is that so difficult for you to understand?
If we assume the PM switch happens at 11am on July 5th then it's just over ten and a half days until PM Starmer, though typically people would say 11 days whatever time that question was asked today.
Thinking more about this, I think the old-fashioned way of saying something like this would be, "It's eleven days until the day we expect Starmer becomes PM."
But anyway, this is exactly analogous to counting steps on a flight of stairs, and surely you don't count a single step as two?
You're right I don't count any step as 2, I count each as 1 - but you don't discount any either.
Just as I'd say my house has 2 stories in it, the ground floor and the top floor. You don't discount any either.
Looking at the days between now and when Starmer comes in, the total is 12.
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
There's a hell of a lot of penis-free households around the ultra-safe seat of North Dorset then.
Still yet to see an election poster or sign for anyone but the LDs, bizarrely.
The LDs aren't at their best. I find it quite incredible that they have managed to arrive at this election so ill prepared and with a leader who really isn't up to it. (I did think he did quite well on the QT debate though)
Their policies seem almost contradictory too. If you like one you're sure to hate another.
Very strange.
I realise you're the party's greatest critic but as the Conservatives are about to find out, it's a very long road back from a very big defeat. From 1970, it took 27 years for the Liberals, later the LDs to get above 40 seats. This time, they may get there after 9 years.
The party I joined and worked for died in the fires of the Coalition - this has been the birth (or rebirth) of a new and different party but they have recently rediscovered the community politics roots.
They will prosper picking over the carcass of the Conservative Party along with the other scavengers but it's what they do afterward that will be important. How to take the success beyond the core of seats into the large areas which see no LD activity fron one decade to the next - that's the real challenge, building a bigger national structure to be in a stronger position next time.
Defining a policy position against the Starmer "Big Tent" will evolve with time but that's the other challenge - to establish a distinctive voice which can become the genuine Opposition.
I'm naturally a Tory, but left the party last year in general disgust. In my political life the vote I'd like to have been able to place was for a continuation of the coalition of 2010.
I have no idea how I'm going to vote - it's always been Tory and I imagine it will be again, but I'd like to have an alternative. The alternative should be the LDs, but I simply can't do that. Could I vote Labour? Yes - they're the most coherent, but I'm nearly sure I won't.
Its funny really. Even at the time there was stuff in the Coalition I was picking out which was decent. Way more of it was bad (NHS Lansley reforms as a prime example) so officially I was still on team red.
Now? Reminding people of the LibDem stable government, of raising the income tax threshhold, of the Triple Lock and Pupil Premium - these play really well on the doorstep. People want good government again...
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
Bear in mind my daughter was five at the time, and I think you may want to reconsider your answer. In 1 day from 8am on a day it will then be 8am on the next day. Tomorrow.
A flat floor is not a flight of stairs with 1 step.
1 day from 8am is 8am tomorrow, if we're going full 24 hour units, but today is a day which hasn't happened yet then too so if we're counting discrete days and not hours, then today ought to be counted.
So if we are going off discrete days the question becomes whether you round up, or round down, essentially.
Many years ago I worked in a business which very strictly operated on this principle for dating products. If a product was dated 8 days from now, then that would be a week today. Why? Because today always has to be counted was the rule. If it was dating products for 2 days, that would be today and tomorrow. If something was dated 1 day then that means by close of business today.
All day today and then all day tomorrow ≠ 1 day.
The context was the statement, "12 days until PM Starmer."
You may have whatever strange definitions you want for other contexts, but in that context, we are effectively counting the gaps between days, because we are counting a duration of time from one point, "now" to a specific point, "then", which will be some time relatively early on July 5th - not until the end of July 5th.
Today is a day.
Tomorrow is a day.
Today and tomorrow is two days.
The election is on day eleven, but the results come out overnight and in day 12 we will have PM Starmer.
If you want to count the gaps, then you can count the nights. 11 more nights. But like with a holiday you can get 5 days but 4 nights.
Really?
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
Since its now 8pm I'll say 11.
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
Yes. Those are two different contexts for use of the word day, as I explained earlier. This isn't unusual for English, why is that so difficult for you to understand?
If we assume the PM switch happens at 11am on July 5th then it's just over ten and a half days until PM Starmer, though typically people would say 11 days whatever time that question was asked today.
Thinking more about this, I think the old-fashioned way of saying something like this would be, "It's eleven days until the day we expect Starmer becomes PM."
But anyway, this is exactly analogous to counting steps on a flight of stairs, and surely you don't count a single step as two?
You're right I don't count any step as 2, I count each as 1 - but you don't discount any either.
Just as I'd say my house has 2 stories in it, the ground floor and the top floor. You don't discount any either.
Looking at the days between now and when Starmer comes in, the total is 12.
Putting up a Liberal Democrat orange diamond on your property is akin to publicly admitting you have no penis.
There's a hell of a lot of penis-free households around the ultra-safe seat of North Dorset then.
Still yet to see an election poster or sign for anyone but the LDs, bizarrely.
The LDs aren't at their best. I find it quite incredible that they have managed to arrive at this election so ill prepared and with a leader who really isn't up to it. (I did think he did quite well on the QT debate though)
Their policies seem almost contradictory too. If you like one you're sure to hate another.
Very strange.
I realise you're the party's greatest critic but as the Conservatives are about to find out, it's a very long road back from a very big defeat. From 1970, it took 27 years for the Liberals, later the LDs to get above 40 seats. This time, they may get there after 9 years.
The party I joined and worked for died in the fires of the Coalition - this has been the birth (or rebirth) of a new and different party but they have recently rediscovered the community politics roots.
They will prosper picking over the carcass of the Conservative Party along with the other scavengers but it's what they do afterward that will be important. How to take the success beyond the core of seats into the large areas which see no LD activity fron one decade to the next - that's the real challenge, building a bigger national structure to be in a stronger position next time.
Defining a policy position against the Starmer "Big Tent" will evolve with time but that's the other challenge - to establish a distinctive voice which can become the genuine Opposition.
I'm naturally a Tory, but left the party last year in general disgust. In my political life the vote I'd like to have been able to place was for a continuation of the coalition of 2010.
I have no idea how I'm going to vote - it's always been Tory and I imagine it will be again, but I'd like to have an alternative. The alternative should be the LDs, but I simply can't do that. Could I vote Labour? Yes - they're the most coherent, but I'm nearly sure I won't.
Its funny really. Even at the time there was stuff in the Coalition I was picking out which was decent. Way more of it was bad (NHS Lansley reforms as a prime example) so officially I was still on team red.
Now? Reminding people of the LibDem stable government, of raising the income tax threshhold, of the Triple Lock and Pupil Premium - these play really well on the doorstep. People want good government again...
"Triple Lock" and "good government" in the same sentence?
AP (via Seattle Times) - *US Supreme Court rejects challenge to new horse racing anti-doping rules
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a challenge from Republican-controlled states to a horse racing safety law that has led to national medication and anti-doping rules.
The justices left in place an appeals court ruling that upheld the law and rejected claims that Congress gave too much power to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the private entity that administers the rules.
Charles Scheeler, chairman of HISA’s board of directors, cited a 38% decline in equine fatalities for the first three months of this year in applauding the court’s decision.
“HISA’s uniform standards are having a material, positive impact on the health and well-being of horses,” he said in a statement.
Oklahoma, Louisiana and West Virginia sought to have the law struck down, joined by several racetracks. . . .
The anti-doping program, which took effect in the spring of 2023, is an attempt to centralize the drug testing of racehorses and manage the results, as well as dole out uniform penalties to horses and trainers instead of the previous patchwork rules in the 38 racing states. . . .
SSI - As long-time resident of both West Virginia and Louisiana (later being only state were I've ever been to any horse racetrack) strongly applaud SCOTUS for it's rare (in more ways than one) collective wisdom in this instance.
BTW (also FYI) yours truly did see the King & Queen making the classic entrance at Royal this weekend having just flipped on my humble TV. KCIII looked to be in decent shape for an active cancer patient, and was heartened to see that Camilla was wearing an actual hat NOT one of those awful "facinators" which personally find as fascinating as poo on my shoe.
A positive story surrounding royals and horses to balance the unfortunate news about Anne.
Oddly enough, when I had dinner with Princess Anne, we talked about her horse riding, and whether skill in riding a horse was nature or nurture. She also mentioned that one of her earliest memories was being on a pony.
(Have I ever mentioned I've had dinner with Princess Anne? )
I hope she recovers soon and well.
Be careful with your royal name dropping as you may get called Josias Witchell at this rate
He’s not old enough!
Have I ever mentioned that I had a piece of Princess Anne's wedding cake?
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
I’d hate to intrude, but if ballot boxes don’t close till 10pm, that day can’t be over at 7.
It is nine and a bit days until polling day. That is a matter of fact, not debate. BigG said twelve days, which is LauraK levels of innumeracy.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
You shouldn't count both today and the day when the "it" is happening. So something happening on Thursday is happening in 3 days (not 4).
That's definitive for me. It's not a matter of debate.
It is absolutely a matter of debate - and a matter of rounding.
The election runs until 10pm at night.
So if we were having the conversation at 8am on Wednesday 3rd July there would definitively be two days left of the campaign - the 3rd, and the 4th itself.
4th July is in 10 days so the election is in 10 days. Debating is not appropriate for this. You can only debate things that are debatable.
Today is a day, that is not debatable either.
Only on PB would we find people quibbling over how long it is until a fixed point in time happens.
ANME update: I posted the wife's ballot paper (no dog poo bins were harmed in the casting of this ballot). Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me. Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
Reject the division of the Nationalists and vote for the Lib Dems.
If the Lib Dems are likeliest to win here, I will. Same with Labour.
I've made it clear for years now that my vote is going to be whatever I feel is best to shift the Tories out. I voted Lib Dem last time and I have no regrets even though they had no hope in that election in my seat. "Bollocks to Brexit" was the right message for me.
But this time it's a punishment vote. Tories out. Show me evidence that puts one party ahead of the others, and I'll listen.
Hi Farooq. Question is this - how will you feel on Friday week if you vote SNP and Seamus Logan is going around saying that you voted for independence? That you voted to blame Westminster for the state of public services whilst not actually doing anything to fix things?
I understand the desire to punish beat the Tories - I want ELE. But uniquely in our corner of Scotland we have this perverse choice, where one party of chaos, cuts and incompetence says you have to vote for them or you get the other party of incompetence, cuts and chaos.
I am the only candidate actually engaging with people on the issues being raised on the doorstep. The NHS. Schools. Energy, connectivity. With policies to match.
Can I win? Absolutely - if enough people vote for me. Remember that its less than a decade since parties were winning from 4th. And there is a mood in the constituency the like of which I've never seen before. Spoke to a lady in Pennan earlier who came up to me. "We're completely scunnered, and the other two don't get it". She's voting for me, a first time LibDem. She isn't alone...
I knew there would be this point, where you would start to get high on your own “hopia”
Your publicity photo’s are still frightening my sheep.
I just got an email from Imelda Staunton (seriously).
If the (late) Queen is supporting Labour, the Tories really are in trouble.
I'm amused by celebs screeching their support of *any* political party, and LOL at anyone whose vote is actually swayed by such an endorsement.
If a celeb say "Go out and vote; it's important!!"; that's great. Kudos to them. It's the idea that someone who once played Doctor Who (as a random example) may have a better idea than me about who is best to run the country...
With the odd exception of people who own an issue - e.g. Feargal Sharkey or Martin Lewis - political parties that use celebs to try and persuade voters are fools. As Labour have found out to their cost in the past.
They do, however, work to drive engagement among existing supporters - you're far more likely to notice and respond to an email 'from' Imelda Staunton than a generic email from Labour HQ. If you can get them out canvassing or at a phonebank too more's the better - as it's rather a nice bonus that those who do some hard work get to meet a star while doing it.
ANME update: I posted the wife's ballot paper (no dog poo bins were harmed in the casting of this ballot). Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me. Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
Reject the division of the Nationalists and vote for the Lib Dems.
If the Lib Dems are likeliest to win here, I will. Same with Labour.
I've made it clear for years now that my vote is going to be whatever I feel is best to shift the Tories out. I voted Lib Dem last time and I have no regrets even though they had no hope in that election in my seat. "Bollocks to Brexit" was the right message for me.
But this time it's a punishment vote. Tories out. Show me evidence that puts one party ahead of the others, and I'll listen.
Hi Farooq. Question is this - how will you feel on Friday week if you vote SNP and Seamus Logan is going around saying that you voted for independence? That you voted to blame Westminster for the state of public services whilst not actually doing anything to fix things?
I understand the desire to punish beat the Tories - I want ELE. But uniquely in our corner of Scotland we have this perverse choice, where one party of chaos, cuts and incompetence says you have to vote for them or you get the other party of incompetence, cuts and chaos.
I am the only candidate actually engaging with people on the issues being raised on the doorstep. The NHS. Schools. Energy, connectivity. With policies to match.
Can I win? Absolutely - if enough people vote for me. Remember that its less than a decade since parties were winning from 4th. And there is a mood in the constituency the like of which I've never seen before. Spoke to a lady in Pennan earlier who came up to me. "We're completely scunnered, and the other two don't get it". She's voting for me, a first time LibDem. She isn't alone...
Well, as I've made clear I'm in the middle on independence. I could vote for it, or I could vote no. One thing the SNP is right about is that there should be mechanism for there to be another vote. That's democracy, but all avenues seem to be closed. That's not healthy. Whatever that mechanism is (and personally I favour the mechanism being that if Holyrood decides there should be one, there should be one) it should be made clear and everyone sticks to it.
However, I'm only talking about that because you asked. For me, it's not the main issue. I have used my various votes in recent years in quite a balanced way on indy/union parties because I don't want to come down hard on one side or another. What I really want, and I know you understand this, is for the Tories to not win here, and not win anywhere.
I set out my reasoning before. And your patter is nice and I get it, and if you knocked on my door I'd shake your hand and wish you luck. But I'm only going to vote for you if I think you're either coming first or second. But I don't think you are. But I've got a week and a bit to see some evidence. I'm going to hand my postal vote in since I'm not away with work, and I'm not in a hurry. I'll look at all the information available on the 3rd July, all the polls and MRPs and whatnot, and decide then.
Comments
On the first day (Good Friday) he died, on the second day (Saturday) not much happened, on the third day (Easter Sunday) he rose again from the dead; he ascended into heaven, and is seated at the right hand of God the Father.
You'd vote for a Socialist every time above a Trotskyist.
My expectation is for Con well under 100, but also for the Conservative Party not to go away. There will remain a significant body of opinion well to the right of Labour, and I don't see that Reform can ever fully represent that. The Tories will be back.
Best signs are ones that stand out, indeed pop out, when seen even at a distance. For August 2024 primary here in WA State, best seen so far is for Semi Bird for Governor (not making this up, I swear) the African American MAGA Republican hopeful almost certain to come in a distant 3rd in our Top Two primary. Most likely to advance to general election are fellow Republican Dave Reichert along with Democrat Bob Ferguson; also running in open-seat race for gov are 25 others on the August ballot.
But his sign is a winner. Navy blue lettering on white background with bit of teal; main element is "BIRD" in big letters below much smaller "Semi" and above "Governor for All of Washington" which is not just about diversity, but even more about geography as in Eastern WA and also most of Western WA versus the wicked Emerald City of Seattle. Nice touch is using outline map of the state as the space inside the "D" in BIRD.
Am sure you can see this baby for maybe half-mile in your car headlights at night on a straight highway
Now that was sixties and seventies Labour, and I dare to ask him what he, as a retiree, thinks of this Conservative government...
Oh, hang on, yes, that is rather like Witchell...
Labour could win every poll between now and the election but if the poll that comes out after the polls close says the Tories won, then Sunak remains PM. It won't happen, but it absolutely matters!
I hear similar but opposite in Tory seats where Labour look to be the strongest challenger.
Like getting an email from Armie Hammer thinking “ooh he played that Lone Ranger so he must be one of the good guys so I will vote for whoever he’s voting for” not knowing the cannibalism fetish and the whole sexual assault allegations.
Poor old Corpus Christi didn't get a repreive though
The party I joined and worked for died in the fires of the Coalition - this has been the birth (or rebirth) of a new and different party but they have recently rediscovered the community politics roots.
They will prosper picking over the carcass of the Conservative Party along with the other scavengers but it's what they do afterward that will be important. How to take the success beyond the core of seats into the large areas which see no LD activity fron one decade to the next - that's the real challenge, building a bigger national structure to be in a stronger position next time.
Defining a policy position against the Starmer "Big Tent" will evolve with time but that's the other challenge - to establish a distinctive voice which can become the genuine Opposition.
So maybe not so bad, then, at least in the short term?
And with the upside that in many of their gains there may be a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze when it comes to their re-election contest, when the tactical argument couldn’t be clearer.
How many days until PM Starmer?
What is your answer?
If you'd asked at 8am I'd say 12.
I'm looking at booking my holiday for next year, we're looking at booking a 5 day, 4 night break. I'd be pissed off if I only got 4 days there.
(No not those "good" old days, the good old days when South African Test Matches were unlimited time (although one was drawn after about twelve days as otherwise England would have missed the boat home).
(Runs for cover).
When I started the walk, I was expecting to only do 5,500 miles (I extended it by not taking ferries). We walked down Leith Walk at the start singing : "And I would walk 5,500 miles..."
A happy memory. Or at least it would be, if it had not been for trying to find somewhere to have a pee after all the champagne we'd drunk at Edinburgh Castle esplanade.
He’s far from unique in feeling divided between tribal loyalty and political reality
I have no such loyalty myself. But I know plenty of sensible people that do
Eg Labourites under Corbyn. Several of my leftier friends despised Corbyn and actually wanted “sensible” Theresa May to win, because they feared his anti Semitism, his pro IRA larks, and much else, but in the end - they admitted to me - in the polling booth they just couldn’t help it. A vote for Labour and Corbyn is what they did, even as they prayed for TMay to prevail, it is hard to change the emotional habit of a long lifetime. This is a human thing
You apparently don’t understand human things which is why you get on better with lower mammals
I have no idea how I'm going to vote - it's always been Tory and I imagine it will be again, but I'd like to have an alternative. The alternative should be the LDs, but I simply can't do that. Could I vote Labour? Yes - they're the most coherent, but I'm nearly sure I won't.
Time to grow up
depending on how well/badly some of the other parties do we could end up with
Lab
LibDem
Con
Ref
DUP
SNP
Admittedly it's more likely that the SNP will get more seats than the DUP and the Tories will get more than the LibDems.
NEW THREAD
His attitude has seen posters leave the site, but I am not giving him the pleasure and I am grateful that @Heathener and yourself with others have called him out
If we assume the PM switch happens at 11am on July 5th then it's just over ten and a half days until PM Starmer, though typically people would say 11 days whatever time that question was asked today.
Thinking more about this, I think the old-fashioned way of saying something like this would be, "It's eleven days until the day we expect Starmer becomes PM."
But anyway, this is exactly analogous to counting steps on a flight of stairs, and surely you don't count a single step as two?
Just as I'd say my house has 2 stories in it, the ground floor and the top floor. You don't discount any either.
Looking at the days between now and when Starmer comes in, the total is 12.
1: Today
2: Tomorrrow
3: 26th
4: 27th
5: 28th
6: 29th
7: 30th
8: 1st July
9: 2nd
10: 3rd
11: 4th
12: 5th
No double counting necessary, just single counting each day. Only way you get to less than 12 is by discounting either today or the 5th or both.
And whilst you're at it, here's TalkTV's voodoo Youtube question thing that popped up on my feed: http://youtube.com/post/UgkxPJs6ePq2pnDITgxgWVt-ToF8_oJeMlyE?si=LWKFEjzKNR6lrsPh
Now, it's rightwing Youtube, headbanging comments are to be expected, but with it being a Murdoch/pro Tory channel, might one expect 15%, 10%, even 5% of the commentors to be negative toward Farage's remarks? Where are these disgusted Redwall voters who will flock back to Sunak?
(he's retiring)
As an aside. It is interesting how so many of the leading Tory Eurosceptics are Roman Catholic. Bill Cash, IDS, Moggster, Anne Widdicombe, Boris Johnson, Gove (allegedly), Sir Edward Leigh.
It may only be 4 full days, but 5 discrete days in total.
But yes. Farage and Johnson are two cheeks of the same.
I understand the desire to punish beat the Tories - I want ELE. But uniquely in our corner of Scotland we have this perverse choice, where one party of chaos, cuts and incompetence says you have to vote for them or you get the other party of incompetence, cuts and chaos.
I am the only candidate actually engaging with people on the issues being raised on the doorstep. The NHS. Schools. Energy, connectivity. With policies to match.
Can I win? Absolutely - if enough people vote for me. Remember that its less than a decade since parties were winning from 4th. And there is a mood in the constituency the like of which I've never seen before. Spoke to a lady in Pennan earlier who came up to me. "We're completely scunnered, and the other two don't get it". She's voting for me, a first time LibDem. She isn't alone...
In your house you move one floor up to get from the ground floor to the upper floor. Not two.
We are counting the time between two days, not counting the days themselves. Do you not see?
Now? Reminding people of the LibDem stable government, of raising the income tax threshhold, of the Triple Lock and Pupil Premium - these play really well on the doorstep. People want good government again...
It had a currant in it.
Your publicity photo’s are still frightening my sheep.
They do, however, work to drive engagement among existing supporters - you're far more likely to notice and respond to an email 'from' Imelda Staunton than a generic email from Labour HQ. If you can get them out canvassing or at a phonebank too more's the better - as it's rather a nice bonus that those who do some hard work get to meet a star while doing it.