🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
That's it. Seen enough. Nothing is changing. What you see is what you get.
You can pick any pollster you like now and you get a landslide of varying degrees of size, but landslide it is.
I'm closing my book.
The real question is where people who don’t want a Labour victory will go. If Reform do enough, they'll be the beneficiary of swing back.
Here in Lewisham we got the usual one-off dump of leaflets today via the postman. So in total we have
Vicky Foxcroft (Labour). Slick, standardised and professionally produced Labour leaflet. Little tick-box questionnaire about what we'd like Labour to do in the constituency. 8/10 for the leaflet, only 4/10 for actually being visible or active between elections.
Two from Jean Branch (Lib Dem). Why 2 leaflets, Jean? This is Lewisham North, Labour rosette on donkey territory. Spend your time helping Bobby Dean in Carshalton & Wallington. OK, reasonably personal leaflets but message isn't clear. 6/10
Wrong leaflet from Reform (Marian Newton, Lewisham W and W Dulwich. Should be Edward Powell Lewisham North). Slick turquoise one pager with Nigel and Richard. Stop the boats etc. I'll begrudgingly have to give this 8/10 but with a 2 point deduction to 6 for getting the constituency wrong
[Big] John [Owls] Lloyd (Alliance for green socialism). Quaintly homemade vibe. Classic old trot photo, looking miserable. "John considers Starmer to be as bad as the Tories. The same right wing policies at home....failure to condemn Israeli war crimes in Palestine". SKS fans please explain.
Gwenton Dennis (Workers Party of GB). Another one going to the wrong constituency - he's Lewisham West & West Dulwich too. Maybe the royal mail messed it up. Similar content to John Lloyd but much slicker production values. No mention here of the traditionalist themes Galloway used in Rochdale. Rather touching dedication and picture of candidate's late mum and sister on the back. 7/10
No Green (surprising, must be on the way) or Conservative leaflets yet.
It would be hilarious if I'd (accidentally) done that. But he doesn't live in our neck of the woods and he's not to my knowledge standing for parliament.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Clearly Farages comments arent hurting Reform. Quite a lot of people agree with him and I suppose if he changes the one sided conversation on Ukraine in the Uk with public support that may make our leaders decisions regarding extra support to ukraine more difficult.
It's probably not so much that people agree with his Putin comments as that they're more concerned with issues like migration, woke-ness, etc.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Clearly Farages comments arent hurting Reform. Quite a lot of people agree with him and I suppose if he changes the one sided conversation on Ukraine in the Uk with public support that may make our leaders decisions regarding extra support to ukraine more difficult.
It's probably not so much that people agree with his Putin comments as that they're more concerned with issues like migration, woke-ness, etc.
Sounds to me like people who would tend to agree with Putin!
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Clearly Farages comments arent hurting Reform. Quite a lot of people agree with him and I suppose if he changes the one sided conversation on Ukraine in the Uk with public support that may make our leaders decisions regarding extra support to ukraine more difficult.
It's probably not so much that people agree with his Putin comments as that they're more concerned with issues like migration, woke-ness, etc.
Yes thats definitely part of it. Farage also mentioned today Boris Johnson said something similar to him back in 2016.
There is a consistent and thread of polls which Baxter to a Tory wipeout - 30-60 seats, Labour towards 500. If it happens we can't say there was no evidence and we weren't warned. I certainly don't think it can't happen.
I realise you know this already, but that could just as well be an artefact of Electoral Calculus as a genuine likely outcome.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
This looks more realistic.
How many other pollsters have Con on 25, or even within MOE of 25, and gap just 14 in their last one? So for what reason is this the realistic one?
The realism is Farage coming back changed the polling (maybe not actual votes, we need to wait till exit poll). And Farage coming back hit Con polling much the hardest.
As long as the Tories stay second at this GE then any further voter volatility would benefit them best under FPTP if say Labour perform poorly on the economy. For even Labour votes lost to the Greens narrow the Labour lead over the Tories and even if the Conservatives get a more rightwing leader as long as they gain more votes from Reform than any lost to the LDs that is still a net gain for them.
Same as now the biggest beneficiaries from Tory voters going Reform are Labour as they could get an even bigger landslide under FPTP than Blair did despite a lower voteshare than the 43% New Labour got in 1997
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
That's it. Seen enough. Nothing is changing. What you see is what you get.
You can pick any pollster you like now and you get a landslide of varying degrees of size, but landslide it is.
I'm closing my book.
The real question is where people who don’t want a Labour victory will go. If Reform do enough, they'll be the beneficiary of swing back.
I think the danger is more swing-everywhere than swingback, i.e. people feel they have a free hit because the election is a foregone conclusion.
Swingback is classically motivated by devil-you-know and playing safe when faced with the actual election. Which I think in this election, if it happened (but there's no evidence yet) might favour Labour as much as anyone.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
We all expect the polls to narrow, and yet, we’ve seen this is enough different polls now to make me think that Labour 500+ seats at 13.5 is overpriced.
I’m not saying it will happen - I expect something more like 430 for Labour - but 500+ doesn’t feel a 13.5 shot. With enough tactical voting efficiency, Labour don’t really need *that* many stars to align for it.
Yes I have a few quid on that at (I think) 15. Bizarre that that can feel like value but it does.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
That's it. Seen enough. Nothing is changing. What you see is what you get.
You can pick any pollster you like now and you get a landslide of varying degrees of size, but landslide it is.
I'm closing my book.
The real question is where people who don’t want a Labour victory will go. If Reform do enough, they'll be the beneficiary of swing back.
Thats sort of one of my problems with Baxter this year. The traditional two party face off has become something of a cage fight this year. Labour clearly ahead but after that it's anyone's game.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
That's it. Seen enough. Nothing is changing. What you see is what you get.
You can pick any pollster you like now and you get a landslide of varying degrees of size, but landslide it is.
I'm closing my book.
The real question is where people who don’t want a Labour victory will go. If Reform do enough, they'll be the beneficiary of swing back.
Picture youself as a WWC voter who is shifting away from Labour. Who do you vote for pint in the pub tell it as it is Farage or that weird rich clever clogs Sunak.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd with MoreinCommon is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
Not this time. People used to avoid Labour and vote Tory because of fear of future change. This time people are afraid of the status quo. Completely different feel to this election than any I can remember. Even in 1997 the economy was doing well.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Which is still better than losing and rebuilding behind the LDs on seats and behind Reform on votes
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
That's it. Seen enough. Nothing is changing. What you see is what you get.
You can pick any pollster you like now and you get a landslide of varying degrees of size, but landslide it is.
I'm closing my book.
The real question is where people who don’t want a Labour victory will go. If Reform do enough, they'll be the beneficiary of swing back.
Picture youself as a WWC voter who is shifting away from Labour. Who do you vote for pint in the pub tell it as it is Farage or that weird rich clever clogs Sunak.
The WWC aren't leaving Labour though, they are leaving the Tories.
The only one who could ever reach them was the son of a toolmaker man.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
That's it. Seen enough. Nothing is changing. What you see is what you get.
You can pick any pollster you like now and you get a landslide of varying degrees of size, but landslide it is.
I'm closing my book.
The real question is where people who don’t want a Labour victory will go. If Reform do enough, they'll be the beneficiary of swing back.
I think the danger is more swing-everywhere than swingback, i.e. people feel they have a free hit because the election is a foregone conclusion.
Swingback is classically motivated by devil-you-know and playing safe when faced with the actual election. Which I think in this election, if it happened (but there's no evidence yet) might favour Labour as much as anyone.
Swingback is not an iron law. We've seen as much Swingaway this time round. Your reasoning is as good as anybody's.
Baxter puts Con seats at 130. It doesn't take account of tactical voting, and MIC is one of the better pollsters for the Tories, so I'd have to judge that 130 is pretty much a max. Minimum shouldn't be lower than 80 though.
28% of 2019 Tories voting for Reform, despite fieldwork spanning Putingate?
Wow.
Yes the media and the tories threw everything at this and nothing stuck. Peoples minds are made up and likely many reform voters secretly agreed with Farage. Clearly Farage aims to change the debate on Ukraine.
Yes, and I wonder who has paid him to try to change the debate?
Because the reality is very different from the fiction he is seeding.
Is not the source of Farage-Reform funding a very significant, unanswered question?
Run it passed me one more time, as I must have been off school the week they done this.
How does nobody go down, and 3 go up?
Rounding errors.
So if (and I totally don't know this is what happened) Labour went from 42.4 to 41.6, there would be a fair bit of decline but the nearest whole number reading would still be 42.
Similarly, the Lib Dem rise could have been from 11.4 (so 11 to a whole number) to 11.6 (rounding up to 12).
Maths is great. Rishi was right- do maths, everyone.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
Not this time. People used to avoid Labour and vote Tory because of fear of future change. This time people are afraid of the status quo. Completely different feel to this election than any I can remember. Even in 1997 the economy was doing well.
On what planet is Labour offering change ? They are offering Pepsi instead of Coke. Theyre not offering Beer or Gin.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Which is still better than losing and rebuilding behind the LDs on seats and behind Reform on votes
The seats show nothing. They have a civil war to fight first unlike the LDs or Ref.
Run it passed me one more time, as I must have been off school the week they done this.
How does nobody go down, and 3 go up?
Rounding errors.
So if (and I totally don't know this is what happened) Labour went from 42.4 to 41.6, there would be a fair bit of decline but the nearest whole number reading would still be 42.
Similarly, the Lib Dem rise could have been from 11.4 (so 11 to a whole number) to 11.6 (rounding up to 12).
Maths is great. Rishi was right- do maths, everyone.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd with MoreinCommon is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
I would just like to say @HYUFD, you are certainly fighting the conservative corner v Farage and the nasty right and good on you
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
He hasnt taken Putins side has he though. Hes explained the historical context in his eyes. He has condemned Putins invasion. My guess this has been a 48 hr media phenomenom that has now blown over.
Given Eric Clapton's skepticism over the vaccine, and his rather robustly right wing stance on immigration, if Farage has lost that demographic, he's really in trouble.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
Run it passed me one more time, as I must have been off school the week they done this.
How does nobody go down, and 3 go up?
Rounding errors.
So if (and I totally don't know this is what happened) Labour went from 42.4 to 41.6, there would be a fair bit of decline but the nearest whole number reading would still be 42.
Similarly, the Lib Dem rise could have been from 11.4 (so 11 to a whole number) to 11.6 (rounding up to 12).
Maths is great. Rishi was right- do maths, everyone.
The new figures sum to 102. The old poll summed to 99. Is it really that complicated?
Which makes him a twat for keeping it going with Bojo.
He should be talking about cost of living.
You said he'd fucked it. On this evidence you were wrong.
He has fucked it. Appealing to a limited audience supporting a murderer and thief is not going to carry the country. This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
But when you promise little then you’re likely to end up delivering even less. For surely the danger is that, in its caution, it has penned itself into an intellectual, organisational and electoral corner? After the flip from Corbynism, it will have won as New Starmer and will feel compelled to govern as New Starmer.
This country isn’t conservative, it is chronically insecure, rampantly volatile and open to the lure of national populism if any new government doesn’t succeed. Look to France,
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
Run it passed me one more time, as I must have been off school the week they done this.
How does nobody go down, and 3 go up?
Rounding errors.
So if (and I totally don't know this is what happened) Labour went from 42.4 to 41.6, there would be a fair bit of decline but the nearest whole number reading would still be 42.
Similarly, the Lib Dem rise could have been from 11.4 (so 11 to a whole number) to 11.6 (rounding up to 12).
Maths is great. Rishi was right- do maths, everyone.
Yuk.
Next lesson:* a variable such as the price of a shopping-basket full; its first and second order differentials; and why one must never muddle them in political discourse.
*Not aimed at you, o selenian cuniculine, but Mr Sunak & Co.
" We have Reform UK on 29% in Clacton, but losing out to the Conservatives on 38%. However, our probabilistic seat counts suggest Reform UK are likely to win at least one seat across the country come July 4th. Given the direction of the data, we expect this to tick up - potentially significantly - in our final update in election week."
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
It's all very well talking about "British voters", but really you need to talk about Reform voters.
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
Not this time. People used to avoid Labour and vote Tory because of fear of future change. This time people are afraid of the status quo. Completely different feel to this election than any I can remember. Even in 1997 the economy was doing well.
On what planet is Labour offering change ? They are offering Pepsi instead of Coke. Theyre not offering Beer or Gin.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
Not this time. People used to avoid Labour and vote Tory because of fear of future change. This time people are afraid of the status quo. Completely different feel to this election than any I can remember. Even in 1997 the economy was doing well.
On what planet is Labour offering change ? They are offering Pepsi instead of Coke. Theyre not offering Beer or Gin.
They’re offering adults to replace children.
You mean mass immigration in preference to a rising birth rate ?
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
You didn’t vote for that, though. I want to see the end of this incarnation of the Tories, and I’m torn. After seeing and hearing all our local candidates yesterday my heart says LibDem but my head says Labour.
As you suggest, I’ll have a ‘hovering pen’ on Election Day.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
" We have Reform UK on 29% in Clacton, but losing out to the Conservatives on 38%. However, our probabilistic seat counts suggest Reform UK are likely to win at least one seat across the country come July 4th. Given the direction of the data, we expect this to tick up - potentially significantly - in our final update in election week."
According to another pollster, Farage is at 48% - who are Focaldata?
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Biggest swing ever in 2024 followed by biggest loss ever in 2029.
The implied national vote shares are Labour on 41.4%, Conservatives on 23.0%, Reform UK on 15.5%, Liberal Democrats on 11.3%, Green on 5.2%, SNP on 2.5%, Plaid Cymru 0.4% and other on 0.6%
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
You didn’t vote for that, though. I want to see the end of this incarnation of the Tories, and I’m torn. After seeing and hearing all our local candidates yesterday my heart says LibDem but my head says Labour.
As you suggest, I’ll have a ‘hovering pen’ on Election Day.
Le Fisher at Quiberon just down the way. I presume it is a chain then? If you identified the brand but not the place? It’s lush
Ah! I hadn't actually realised there was more than one of them. The one at Carnac Plage is similarly swish and scene-y. Enjoy your trip!
I had no idea southern Brittany is so…. Posh. Its like a kind of Atlantic Côte d’Azur but it’s better because its not full of retired British tampon ad executives (naming no names - but I mean @roger aka rogerdamus. Roger. That’s who I mean. Roger. But I’m staying shtum I won’t reveal that I mean roger)
Also, wtf is wrong with the frogs. I am increasingly obsessed with the disjunct between their cushy lives and their political anger. I’m in morbihan. I just checked the euro elex results here
Yep. Bardella won. Ok you could argue that’s a family vote as the le pens are from morbihan but much of Brittany went for le pen as indeed did much of France
What’s their problem? Do they want even nicer roundabouts?
It’s not like it’s all massively expensive either. It isn’t. 🤷🏼♂️
I've just been out delivering copies of of the local magazine and I've seen my first local poster for Reform and the first for Greens. Both in the next road. Ironically, the Green poster is in a house where they have tarmaced over 90 per cent of the front garden to provide a forecourt for their four vehicles.
Funny thread header bringing in Russian appeasers from left field like that - Bit obsessive and debate closing down on an important topic of course that affects all our lives
The mail went hard on it all weekend. Still its circulation has collapsed now.
How can you measure the circulation metrics of a newspaper (let alone a Sunday newspaper) in 48 hours you Putin cock polishing fuckwit. We’ve a long noble line of Russian paid bots on here and you’re disgracing their efforts with these efforts that have all the persuasive power of a small fart in a cyclone. Try harder or fuck off.
With post-election fun and games in mind, Farage's description of Johnson as the worst ever PM today was pretty interesting. Not sure that's a strategy to unite the right.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
You didn’t vote for that, though. I want to see the end of this incarnation of the Tories, and I’m torn. After seeing and hearing all our local candidates yesterday my heart says LibDem but my head says Labour.
As you suggest, I’ll have a ‘hovering pen’ on Election Day.
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
7 Months ago it was 'The Tories always swingback in the 6 months before an election' then it was 'There'll be swing back to the government once the date is anounced.' Then it was 'There'll be swing back once the manifestos are published'.
Now it's 'There'll be swing back in the voting booths'.
The mail went hard on it all weekend. Still its circulation has collapsed now.
How can you measure the circulation metrics of a newspaper (let alone a Sunday newspaper) in 48 hours you Putin cock polishing fuckwit. We’ve a long noble line of Russian paid bots on here and you’re disgracing their efforts with these efforts that have all the persuasive power of a small fart in a cyclone. Try harder or fuck off.
Comments
Good analytical write up of their poll.
But for fun, MiC has 4 parties in the 20s in the South West. Chaos!
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1805148058218332531
The realism is Farage coming back changed the polling (maybe not actual votes, we need to wait till exit poll). And Farage coming back hit Con polling much the hardest.
Same as now the biggest beneficiaries from Tory voters going Reform are Labour as they could get an even bigger landslide under FPTP than Blair did despite a lower voteshare than the 43% New Labour got in 1997
Swingback is classically motivated by devil-you-know and playing safe when faced with the actual election. Which I think in this election, if it happened (but there's no evidence yet) might favour Labour as much as anyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wujXeI6rj6U
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1805277749717643633
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1803831703107940857
He should be talking about cost of living.
Run it passed me one more time, as I must have been off school the week they done this.
How does nobody go down, and 3 go up?
The only one who could ever reach them was the son of a toolmaker man.
Baxter puts Con seats at 130. It doesn't take account of tactical voting, and MIC is one of the better pollsters for the Tories, so I'd have to judge that 130 is pretty much a max. Minimum shouldn't be lower than 80 though.
Sandpit's bet is safe.
Labour are more trusted than the Conservatives on EVERY policy issue prompted.
Which party do voters trust most on...?
(Labour | Conservative)
NHS (43% | 15%)
Education (41% | 17%)
Economy (38% | 23%)
Immigration (33% | 18%)
🇺🇦 (31% | 22%)
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1805279807443222830
Meanwhile outre Manche things are hotting up. RN and FP squeezing Macron with RN possibly having an absolute majority.
Macron squealing like a Prima Donna and his party in a state of gloom.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/en-direct-legislatives-a-j-6-du-premier-tour-bardella-presente-le-programme-du-rn-20240624
Though it might please Putin's appeasers like yourself
So if (and I totally don't know this is what happened) Labour went from 42.4 to 41.6, there would be a fair bit of decline but the nearest whole number reading would still be 42.
Similarly, the Lib Dem rise could have been from 11.4 (so 11 to a whole number) to 11.6 (rounding up to 12).
Maths is great. Rishi was right- do maths, everyone.
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
https://x.com/mij_europe/status/1805265593525776759
Plus c'est la même chose, Mr Wilton.
HOWEVER is not Nigel Farage's fundamental imperative & prime directive, keeping Donald J. Trump happy?
Le Fisher at Quiberon just down the way. I presume it is a chain then? If you identified the brand but not the place? It’s lush
Even more so that us USers!
Is it really that complicated?
This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
This country isn’t conservative, it is chronically insecure, rampantly volatile and open to the lure of national populism if any new government doesn’t succeed. Look to France,
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/23/strategy-keir-starmer-no-10-labour
*Not aimed at you, o selenian cuniculine, but Mr Sunak & Co.
"The Immigration Election: only Reform UK will freeze immigration.
Immigration needs reform"
It's subtle, but I got it, like Labour's "Change" manifesto.
Nick Clegg's old seat throws up a litany of surprises
Daniel Timms"
https://unherd.com/2024/06/sheffield-britains-weirdest-constituency/
https://nfarage.com/
But pasting an MRP model onto such an outlier seat must be tricky.
Question is whether seeing Farage close-up makes him more electable or less so.
That is not a typical sample by any means.
I want to see the end of this incarnation of the Tories, and I’m torn. After seeing and hearing all our local candidates yesterday my heart says LibDem but my head says Labour.
As you suggest, I’ll have a ‘hovering pen’ on Election Day.
It's just the mathematics.
The implied national vote shares are Labour on 41.4%, Conservatives on 23.0%, Reform UK on 15.5%, Liberal Democrats on 11.3%, Green on 5.2%, SNP on 2.5%, Plaid Cymru 0.4% and other on 0.6%
Also, wtf is wrong with the frogs. I am increasingly obsessed with the disjunct between their cushy lives and their political anger. I’m in morbihan. I just checked the euro elex results here
Yep. Bardella won. Ok you could argue that’s a family vote as the le pens are from morbihan but much of Brittany went for le pen as indeed did much of France
What’s their problem? Do they want even nicer roundabouts?
It’s not like it’s all massively expensive either. It isn’t. 🤷🏼♂️
of a newspaper (let alone a Sunday newspaper) in 48 hours you Putin cock polishing fuckwit. We’ve a long noble line of Russian paid bots on here and you’re disgracing their efforts with these efforts that have all the persuasive power of a small fart in a cyclone. Try harder or fuck off.
Now it's 'There'll be swing back in the voting booths'.
The straws keep on getting thinner...