Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Absolutely nowt is going on in Blyth and Ashington, election wise. But all pollsters are picking up big swings to Labour in the Northeast. Important to note. Blyth Valley, which went Tory last time does not exist. B+A consists of the Labour half of BV, and the Labour half of Wansbeck (which doesn't exist either).
It's not just the Tory activists being pulled back to the safest of seats. I know that Lab have called for canvassing in Rutland and Stamford which on some measures is the 10th safest Tory seat in the country.
@Sandpit might well have 10 000 reasons to be nervous, but to me it seems a bit out of reach for Labour. I think they are deliberately stretching the invisible Tory machine.
My parents live in that constituency, let’s hope it’s a pretty safe return if only for a split opposition.
According to the pitch side people the heat and humidity and the pitch cutting up is affecting England. Those swarthy Mediterranean types from Denmark do of course have the advantage of living in a tropical climate and playing in hot leagues like the, er Premier League, but they are also advantaged by not running on the pitch so not affected by the crappy turf unlike brave England.
Or maybe I should say I PERSONALLY find it a little boring, now (tho this election is fun)
You have one life, it's a wonderful world out there, I am paid to explore it, I love it
For sure, travel usually broadens the mind.
Why you are so immune, remains a mystery.
Maybe because wandering around an airport looking for some driver on minimum wage holding up a piece of cardboard with “Sean Twat” written on it isn’t really proper travel.
Fact remains, most PB’ers can see that your desire to become a global nomad and escape your homeland has very little to do with our weather.
Yes, he can be a bit of a nob at times: he can bore for Britain and he's massively self-obsessed. Sometimes, he also gets a bit personal, and it's not necessary. But, when not, or shitting his pants, he's actually quite a shrewd and insightful observer of people and trends, and quite funny to boot. And he can hold a debate.
According to the pitch side people the heat and humidity and the pitch cutting up is affecting England. Those swarthy Mediterranean types from Denmark do of course have the advantage of living in a tropical climate and playing in hot leagues like the, er Premier League, but they are also advantaged by not running on the pitch so not affected by the crappy turf unlike brave England.
Finally the BBC panel turns on Southgate. After about a decade
It's his teams, his coaching, his sit-back-on-the lead shit
I have absolutely no idea why we stick with Southgate. Tactically inept. Boring.
Just awful
Because he's a "fundamentally decent guy" and he used to wear a waistcoat and taking the knee and all that shite
I mean, he probably is a lovely chap. He also earns several trillion quid. As soon as they re-appointed him after the World Cup I knew we had no chance at the euros, despite having Bellingham and Kane!!!!
Fack it. I'm off to the Thames for a riverside pint in the lovely sun
The Knee is the biggest black mark against Southgate.
Disgrace he got sucked into that cultural Marxism.
Unfortunate wording there in the first sentence ...
I realise it falls under "nice problem to have" but a mahoosive Labour majority is going to create an opposition problem which will be awkward even for SKS Fans.
If the official opposition is 100 Tories then it is, probably, not the brightest and best of them. And they're not going to be doing a lot of opposing, at least for the first two years while they're in full-on recrimination mode with and choosing a new leader.
Or if the official opposition is 60 LibDems then it's going to be genuinely difficult to fill all the shadow minister posts, especially given that most of them will have no experience of being an MP.
Both of these sound good for Labour, but the media - understandably - seeks out conflict. And if the opposition isn't generating those stories, reporters are going to start looking for conflict within Labour. (Gotta fill those pages somehow.) All of a sudden, Jared O'Trotsky, the incompletely vetted surprise Labour MP for Lower Stinchcombe on Thames, has a megaphone he wasn't expecting.
I'm sure Sue Gray has been wargaming this for weeks, but Labour on 500 seats is not an easy situation for anyone.
How many Labour coop MPs are there? Genuinely don’t know but might it be more than 100?
26, says Wiki - or rather, there *were* to be pedantic. Surprised it's so few myself.
Depending on how well they do vis-a-vis the LDs and SNP, there might be a temptation ...
Thanks (and also to viewcode). So lots of defections needed to become the official opposition?
🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll shows a small drop in the Labour vote, now leading the Conservatives by 14. 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 39% (-2) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (-) 🟣 REF UK 14% (-) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 3%(+1) Dates 17-19/6, N=2035 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… More in Common going against the tide https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803835335928852843?s=19
Or maybe I should say I PERSONALLY find it a little boring, now (tho this election is fun)
You have one life, it's a wonderful world out there, I am paid to explore it, I love it
For sure, travel usually broadens the mind.
Why you are so immune, remains a mystery.
Maybe because wandering around an airport looking for some driver on minimum wage holding up a piece of cardboard with “Sean Twat” written on it isn’t really proper travel.
Fact remains, most PB’ers can see that your desire to become a global nomad and escape your homeland has very little to do with our weather.
Yes, he can be a bit of a nob at times: he can bore for Britain and he's massively self-obsessed. Sometimes, he also gets a bit personal, and it's not necessary. But, when not, or shitting his pants, he's actually quite a shrewd and insightful observer of people and trends, and quite funny to boot. And he can hold a debate.
Asset to the site.
Really, he’s not. Compare the quality of the discussion on the nights when he’s comatose on his hotel room floor.
🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll shows a small drop in the Labour vote, now leading the Conservatives by 14. 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 39% (-2) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (-) 🟣 REF UK 14% (-) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 3%(+1) Dates 17-19/6, N=2035 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… More in Common going against the tide https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803835335928852843?s=19
This poll is out of step with all the others, except that Labour are down into the 30s.
What Cons need is PROPORTIONAL representation much better than moaning all the time, join the campaign.
Don't blame me, I voted for AV!
That's not proportional...
I actually quite like the French system. vote for who you want initially and then make a proper choice a week later. (plus two elections for the price of one)
Tories still comfortably ahead of Reform on seats though, albeit LDs second on seats. Gives Labour 506, LDs 56, Tories 35, SNP 21, Reform 5 and Greens 2.
This should be peak Farage, post Reform's populist right manifesto and after his debate win late last week.
As long as the Tories stay ahead of Reform on seats and on votes in most polls then Rishi can squeeze them back a bit at his head to head final debate with Starmer next Wednesday from which Farage is excluded
Trust you’ve had time to review the YouGov Newton Abbot projection?
No. Been out all day. Is it a new MRP? You and I both took heed of the caveats about MRP’s for individual constituencies.
YouGov at least has a base of local voters in its panel. So it’s not all demographic modelling. Take a look - on the YouGov website. Labour is tussling with Reform for third and fourth place,
🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll shows a small drop in the Labour vote, now leading the Conservatives by 14. 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 39% (-2) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (-) 🟣 REF UK 14% (-) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 3%(+1) Dates 17-19/6, N=2035 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… More in Common going against the tide https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803835335928852843?s=19
Finally the BBC panel turns on Southgate. After about a decade
It's his teams, his coaching, his sit-back-on-the lead shit
I have absolutely no idea why we stick with Southgate. Tactically inept. Boring.
Just awful
Because he's a "fundamentally decent guy" and he used to wear a waistcoat and taking the knee and all that shite
I mean, he probably is a lovely chap. He also earns several trillion quid. As soon as they re-appointed him after the World Cup I knew we had no chance at the euros, despite having Bellingham and Kane!!!!
Fack it. I'm off to the Thames for a riverside pint in the lovely sun
More because there's no truly 'elite' English managers who'd take the role out of patriotism, and the very best coaches who'd be a certain improvement would rather be managing superclubs as you get paid more and can build a team.
From there, they're always going to stick with the guy who had initial success by changing the 'vibes' around the team and getting rid of some of the egos and poison that screwed England up for years. Rather than getting rid for a coach who probably doesn't see it as a dream job and may well have similar limitations to Southgate when presented with international football.
What are the odds on Gareth Southgate being sacked or 'resigning' after Euro 2024? I reckon 1/2 is about right which says he's gone by 30 Sept 2024. It could be sooner but could be delayed a while by the shortage of suitable candidates.
Tories still comfortably ahead of Reform on seats though, albeit LDs second on seats. Gives Labour 506, LDs 56, Tories 35, SNP 21, Reform 5 and Greens 2.
This should be peak Farage, post Reform's populist right manifesto and after his debate win late last week.
As long as the Tories stay ahead of Reform on seats and on votes in most polls then Rishi can squeeze them back a bit at his head to head final debate with Starmer next Wednesday from which Farage is excluded
It'll be quite the scene if Con and Ref conspire to leave a massive Lab majority with Lib Dems as the main opposition, probably pushing from the left on some policy areas.
I looked at the MRP averages vs the same pollsters normal polls (a sample of 5)
So, here are the national MRP averages and how they compare with the ordinary polls MRP averages: Con 24.4 (+3.0 compared with normal polls) Lab 42.0 (+1.6) LD 11.2 (0) SNP 3.2 (+0.2) Grn 5.6 (-0.6) Ref 12.0 (-2.0) Others Inc PC 1.6 (-2.2)
There's a small discrepancy because Survation quote UK not GB on their normal polls, but even allowing for that it looks like there is about a 4-5% transfer of votes from challenger parties to incumbent parties overall inherent in the MRP process.
How do you get Reform on just 14% with normal polls?
Just an average of 5 polls including an aged 9% from IPSOS (but their MRP itself isn't the newest). I'm betting their next poll won't be 9%.
I have the overall 18 pollster (18!) average for Reform as 16%.
Are you including polls that are more than about 10 days old? Because I think that's a bit dodgy during an election campaign.
MRPs are rarer, and I've excluded Find Out Now who haven't run a traditional poll for comparison. In fact without IPSOS, whose MRP rated Reform 3 points higher than their traditional poll, the MRP effect in giving a lower Reform value would be even greater.
Thought. I'm doing comparisons here between most recent MRPs and most recent polls. I'll have a look with a bit more care on the date overlaps and see what I find. The correspondences aren't too bad, but could be better.
Or maybe I should say I PERSONALLY find it a little boring, now (tho this election is fun)
You have one life, it's a wonderful world out there, I am paid to explore it, I love it
For sure, travel usually broadens the mind.
Why you are so immune, remains a mystery.
Maybe because wandering around an airport looking for some driver on minimum wage holding up a piece of cardboard with “Sean Twat” written on it isn’t really proper travel.
Fact remains, most PB’ers can see that your desire to become a global nomad and escape your homeland has very little to do with our weather.
Yes, he can be a bit of a nob at times: he can bore for Britain and he's massively self-obsessed. Sometimes, he also gets a bit personal, and it's not necessary. But, when not, or shitting his pants, he's actually quite a shrewd and insightful observer of people and trends, and quite funny to boot. And he can hold a debate.
Asset to the site.
Really, he’s not. Compare the quality of the discussion on the nights when he’s comatose on his hotel room floor.
Tories still comfortably ahead of Reform on seats though, albeit LDs second on seats. Gives Labour 506, LDs 56, Tories 35, SNP 21, Reform 5 and Greens 2.
This should be peak Farage, post Reform's populist right manifesto and after his debate win late last week.
As long as the Tories stay ahead of Reform on seats and on votes in most polls then Rishi can squeeze them back a bit at his head to head final debate with Starmer next Wednesday from which Farage is excluded
It'll be quite the scene if Con and Ref conspire to leave a massive Lab majority with Lib Dems as the main opposition, probably pushing from the left on some policy areas.
I suspect provided the Tories are still ahead of Reform in most polls by polling day, Reform will fall back to UKIP 2015 levels and about 12% with most of their lost vote returning to the Tories who will end up on about 25% or so and 100-150 seats and stay main opposition
Pushing it a bit imo, especially for the copper. I suppose the MP and campaign manager may well have been involved in choosing the date which might be analogous to stacking the deck. IANAL.
🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll shows a small drop in the Labour vote, now leading the Conservatives by 14. 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 39% (-2) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (-) 🟣 REF UK 14% (-) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 3%(+1) Dates 17-19/6, N=2035 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… More in Common going against the tide https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803835335928852843?s=19
This poll is out of step with all the others, except that Labour are down into the 30s.
There's definitely no herding re Reform vote share!
Either More in Common or Matt Goodwin is going to look very stupid on election day.
If we do end up in the ELE, losing the popular vote to Reform, LDs as main oppo scenario, you wonder who will lead the recriminations/investigations in the Tory party.
They will still have hundreds of Lords, thousands of councillors. Presumably tens of thousands of members and millions of people who have hitherto routinely voted Blue in elections.
The rightward lurch, RefMerge or whatever will be tempting but they have to look at what has made the Conservatives the natural party of government for centuries.
For the sake of a functioning democracy I hope sanity prevails.
🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll shows a small drop in the Labour vote, now leading the Conservatives by 14. 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 39% (-2) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (-) 🟣 REF UK 14% (-) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 3%(+1) Dates 17-19/6, N=2035 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… More in Common going against the tide https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803835335928852843?s=19
"Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate being investigated by the Gambling Commission over election date betting allegations, has issued a statement saying she is cooperating with the inquiry. She also says she might sue the BBC over infringement of her privacy rights.
"In a statement released on Saunders’ behalf, Nama Zarroug, a solicitor at Astraea Linskills, said:
"[...] The publication of the BBC’s story is premature and is a clear infringement of Ms Saunders’ privacy rights. She is considering legal action against the BBC and any other publishers who infringe her privacy rights."
I believe the technical term is "good luck with that".
I'm not sure that is punnable. It's basically a single entendre. Or arguably there are two meanings, both filthy. A pun kind of needs an innocent explanation.
I'm not sure that is punnable. It's basically a single entendre. Or arguably there are two meanings, both filthy. A pun kind of needs an innocent explanation.
Reminds me of the old, what’s the difference between a piano and a fish; you can tuna a piano [etc.]
Pushing it a bit imo, especially for the copper. I suppose the MP and campaign manager may well have been involved in choosing the date which might be analogous to stacking the deck. IANAL.
There's still chance involved until KCIII has actually given the nod. My sense is you are probably in the clear if Sunak has let's say cancelled all leave till July 5, less so if you have had an email saying in terms it's on July 4. This is not really about law or even morality, though, it's about being a frivolous arse. Exactly the mindset behind the lockdown parties. How hard was it to learn the lessons of that mistake?
How much of a turnover was there at CCHQ when Rishi displaced Liz or Liz displaced Boris? There was a pre-election quote from one of the campaign experts along the lines of "the packet of crisps doesn't get to decide the marketing strategy".
The observation that winning elections isn't the important thing, it's the only thing is a good bit of Tory wisdom. But when the party machine is more powerful than the actual politicians... that's bad, isn't it?
Pushing it a bit imo, especially for the copper. I suppose the MP and campaign manager may well have been involved in choosing the date which might be analogous to stacking the deck. IANAL.
There's still chance involved until KCIII has actually given the nod. My sense is you are probably in the clear if Sunak has let's say cancelled all leave till July 5, less so if you have had an email saying in terms it's on July 4. This is not really about law or even morality, though, it's about being a frivolous arse. Exactly the mindset behind the lockdown parties. How hard was it to learn the lessons of that mistake?
Being told by someone is fine. What’s not fine is being involved in the decision-making process, having either already bet on a certain date, or doing so immediately after the decision was made.
Or maybe I should say I PERSONALLY find it a little boring, now (tho this election is fun)
You have one life, it's a wonderful world out there, I am paid to explore it, I love it
For sure, travel usually broadens the mind.
Why you are so immune, remains a mystery.
Maybe because wandering around an airport looking for some driver on minimum wage holding up a piece of cardboard with “Sean Twat” written on it isn’t really proper travel.
Fact remains, most PB’ers can see that your desire to become a global nomad and escape your homeland has very little to do with our weather.
Yes, he can be a bit of a nob at times: he can bore for Britain and he's massively self-obsessed. Sometimes, he also gets a bit personal, and it's not necessary. But, when not, or shitting his pants, he's actually quite a shrewd and insightful observer of people and trends, and quite funny to boot. And he can hold a debate.
Asset to the site.
We're in agreement on this, as you are an asset, even if we like to piss on each other's chips! People moaning about other posters and wanting them sanctioned and banned or telling them to shut up. They're the feckers who want banning!
If we do end up in the ELE, losing the popular vote to Reform, LDs as main oppo scenario, you wonder who will lead the recriminations/investigations in the Tory party.
They will still have hundreds of Lords, thousands of councillors. Presumably tens of thousands of members and millions of people who have hitherto routinely voted Blue in elections.
The rightward lurch, RefMerge or whatever will be tempting but they have to look at what has made the Conservatives the natural party of government for centuries.
For the sake of a functioning democracy I hope sanity prevails.
Functioning democracy rests primarily on voters. As long as there is even only one party standing for competent government in a policy setting within the fairly narrow Overton window the voter has someone to vote for. If the Tory party were to be (!) lost to grown up politics the Labour and LD parties currently are not. And it would create a very natural gap in the market.
Pushing it a bit imo, especially for the copper. I suppose the MP and campaign manager may well have been involved in choosing the date which might be analogous to stacking the deck. IANAL.
There's still chance involved until KCIII has actually given the nod. My sense is you are probably in the clear if Sunak has let's say cancelled all leave till July 5, less so if you have had an email saying in terms it's on July 4. This is not really about law or even morality, though, it's about being a frivolous arse. Exactly the mindset behind the lockdown parties. How hard was it to learn the lessons of that mistake?
Yup.. illegal or not, it's not a great look when your administration came in on an "integrity" ticket, and absolutely in the public interest for it to come out.
"Deliberate dishonesty" implies that they were deliberately dishonest. As the bookmaker did not seek any info from the gambler concerning the bet, no dishonesty was involved, deliberate or otherwise
The element of chance always exists in a future event. The PM may have changed his mind after the bet was placed. No certainty did or could exist.
Given that a July election had been leaked by/to Lord Finkelstein, this information was in the public domain.
As I hope I've made clear, I am pissed off at this.
Pushing it a bit imo, especially for the copper. I suppose the MP and campaign manager may well have been involved in choosing the date which might be analogous to stacking the deck. IANAL.
There's still chance involved until KCIII has actually given the nod. My sense is you are probably in the clear if Sunak has let's say cancelled all leave till July 5, less so if you have had an email saying in terms it's on July 4. This is not really about law or even morality, though, it's about being a frivolous arse. Exactly the mindset behind the lockdown parties. How hard was it to learn the lessons of that mistake?
Being told by someone is fine. What’s not fine is being involved in the decision-making process, having either already bet on a certain date, or doing so immediately after the decision was made.
Tbh I don’t think politically it matters hugely how legal it was or wasn’t. Per Tweedledee it’s frivolous, as well as immoral and maybe illegal. In short: Bad Form. It’s the sort of person who, working for a political party, immediately thinks ‘how can this benefit *me*?’.
I usually keep a state of amused detachment from politics but it has really made me quite cross.
It is ironic though, given from Boris onwards this has been a party obsessed with optics over action.
"NEW polling suggests the Conservatives could lose up to 300 seats, including these long-standing enclaves of delusional loathing:
"Pantalon-le-Rouge, Oxfordshire
"This cradle of the rich, the wealthy and those who look down on them as mere peasants has been solidly Tory since 1865. But, irked by the town centre fountain being sold to China and turned into an open-air sewage reprocessing facility, the locals have turned against their local MP who last visited them in 2020, for a lockdown photoshoot."
Finally the BBC panel turns on Southgate. After about a decade
It's his teams, his coaching, his sit-back-on-the lead shit
I have absolutely no idea why we stick with Southgate. Tactically inept. Boring.
Just awful
Because he's a "fundamentally decent guy" and he used to wear a waistcoat and taking the knee and all that shite
I mean, he probably is a lovely chap. He also earns several trillion quid. As soon as they re-appointed him after the World Cup I knew we had no chance at the euros, despite having Bellingham and Kane!!!!
Fack it. I'm off to the Thames for a riverside pint in the lovely sun
The Knee is the biggest black mark against Southgate.
Disgrace he got sucked into that cultural Marxism.
I haven't seen any of the footy. I can't legally watch it but I'm not interested in it anyway. I fell out of love with it during the generation of Gerrard, Terry, Lampard and the like and never went back. It's weird because all my family, mates and neighbours are going mad for it. I'd rather watch mountain biking and surfing. Must be the midlife crisis hippy coming out in me!
"NEW polling suggests the Conservatives could lose up to 300 seats, including these long-standing enclaves of delusional loathing:
"Pantalon-le-Rouge, Oxfordshire
"This cradle of the rich, the wealthy and those who look down on them as mere peasants has been solidly Tory since 1865. But, irked by the town centre fountain being sold to China and turned into an open-air sewage reprocessing facility, the locals have turned against their local MP who last visited them in 2020, for a lockdown photoshoot."
"Growth-on-Growth, Lincolnshire
This community of low-tax zealots, a Conservative citadel since 1802, is home to more than half of the Daily Telegraph’s opinion writers and economic illiterates. Unable to forgive the betrayal of Liz Truss, still worshipped locally as a fiscal God, they will punish the Tories at the ballot box in the hope their cult can achieve total destruction of the world."
Comments
📊 Latest VI poll for @theipaper 📊
➡️ Reform tied (!) with Conservatives. 23 point Lab lead.
📉 Gap between Labour and Conservatives is up 5 points over course of campaign.
LAB: 42% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
RFM: 19% (+5)
LDM: 9% (-3)
GRN: 7% (+1)
SNP: 3% (-)
18-19th June. Changes with 11-12th June. Full results and write up 👇
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
And if when they lose, you win anyway.
Yes, he can be a bit of a nob at times: he can bore for Britain and he's massively self-obsessed. Sometimes, he also gets a bit personal, and it's not necessary. But, when not, or shitting his pants, he's actually quite a shrewd and insightful observer of people and trends, and quite funny to boot. And he can hold a debate.
Asset to the site.
🔵 CON 25% (-)
🔴 LAB 39% (-2)
🟠 LIB DEM 11% (-)
🟣 REF UK 14% (-)
🟢 GRN 5% (-)
🟡 SNP 3%(+1)
Dates 17-19/6, N=2035 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
More in Common going against the tide
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803835335928852843?s=19
I actually quite like the French system. vote for who you want initially and then make a proper choice a week later. (plus two elections for the price of one)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=18&LAB=42&LIB=11&Reform=19&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.2&SCOTLAB=36.7&SCOTLIB=6.9&SCOTReform=3.2&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
This should be peak Farage, post Reform's populist right manifesto and after his debate win late last week.
As long as the Tories stay ahead of Reform on seats and on votes in most polls then Rishi can squeeze them back a bit at his head to head final debate with Starmer next Wednesday from which Farage is excluded
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/20/huge-spike-in-bets-on-day-before-sunak-announced-election/
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=25&LAB=39&LIB=11&Reform=14&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.2&SCOTLAB=36.7&SCOTLIB=6.9&SCOTReform=3.2&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
From there, they're always going to stick with the guy who had initial success by changing the 'vibes' around the team and getting rid of some of the egos and poison that screwed England up for years. Rather than getting rid for a coach who probably doesn't see it as a dream job and may well have similar limitations to Southgate when presented with international football.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=19&LAB=42&LIB=9&Reform=19&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.2&SCOTLAB=36.7&SCOTLIB=6.9&SCOTReform=3.2&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
I reckon 1/2 is about right which says he's gone by 30 Sept 2024. It could be sooner but could be delayed a while by the shortage of suitable candidates.
To lay rather than back, obviously.
The Conservatives could be in big trouble over this. The last straw?
And just when you think the above is clear cut you get the More in Common.
This is genuinely this young lady’s name. Blimey. Insert your own filthy puns.
And she’s standing for election!
https://www.citystudents.co.uk/elections/manifesto/4714/
Not a wishy washy fine or suspended sentence - actually go to prison.
https://www.bfi.org.uk/sight-and-sound/greatest-films-all-time
Either More in Common or Matt Goodwin is going to look very stupid on election day.
Second reaction Nah, y axis goes down to zero. LDs in the clear.
They will still have hundreds of Lords, thousands of councillors. Presumably tens of thousands of members and millions of people who have hitherto routinely voted Blue in elections.
The rightward lurch, RefMerge or whatever will be tempting but they have to look at what has made the Conservatives the natural party of government for centuries.
For the sake of a functioning democracy I hope sanity prevails.
SKS will be in the 30s I think.
"Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate being investigated by the Gambling Commission over election date betting allegations, has issued a statement saying she is cooperating with the inquiry. She also says she might sue the BBC over infringement of her privacy rights.
"In a statement released on Saunders’ behalf, Nama Zarroug, a solicitor at Astraea Linskills, said:
"[...] The publication of the BBC’s story is premature and is a clear infringement of Ms Saunders’ privacy rights. She is considering legal action against the BBC and any other publishers who infringe her privacy rights."
I believe the technical term is "good luck with that".
https://x.com/realkiefer/status/1803837822677225581?s=61
I’m genuinely curious as to what you think has “driven me away from Britain” if it’s not the weather
Because I can assure you a great part of it is the weather. And it’s getting worse (tho today is lovely so I’m off to Richmond for a drink)
So you clearly think there is some other deeper emotional motive. What is it?
Or arguably there are two meanings, both filthy.
A pun kind of needs an innocent explanation.
The observation that winning elections isn't the important thing, it's the only thing is a good bit of Tory wisdom. But when the party machine is more powerful than the actual politicians... that's bad, isn't it?
RIP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mlr6m2AWskg
People moaning about other posters and wanting them sanctioned and banned or telling them to shut up. They're the feckers who want banning!
- "Deliberate dishonesty" implies that they were deliberately dishonest. As the bookmaker did not seek any info from the gambler concerning the bet, no dishonesty was involved, deliberate or otherwise
- The element of chance always exists in a future event. The PM may have changed his mind after the bet was placed. No certainty did or could exist.
- Given that a July election had been leaked by/to Lord Finkelstein, this information was in the public domain.
As I hope I've made clear, I am pissed off at this.I usually keep a state of amused detachment from politics but it has really made me quite cross.
It is ironic though, given from Boris onwards this has been a party obsessed with optics over action.
It has saved me much angst and sadness ever since. I don’t emotionally invest
England rugby can still wind me up
"NEW polling suggests the Conservatives could lose up to 300 seats, including these long-standing enclaves of delusional loathing:
"Pantalon-le-Rouge, Oxfordshire
"This cradle of the rich, the wealthy and those who look down on them as mere peasants has been solidly Tory since 1865. But, irked by the town centre fountain being sold to China and turned into an open-air sewage reprocessing facility, the locals have turned against their local MP who last visited them in 2020, for a lockdown photoshoot."
He’s been one of the best players of the season .
"Dishy Rishi" Sunak gets a Stone Cold Starmer from the Camden Rattlesnake at the Polling Day Pay-Per-Vote on July 4th.
Negative vibes, man.
"Hunger Games actor", as he's described in various headlines, really doesn't do him justice.
Great actor.
They also have independents moving bigly to Biden following Trumps conviction. Trump was +2% with independents, now they have Biden +9% with them.
This is Fox News.
Fox!!
/S
Fortunately I've had an appointment to go to and missed the entire thing.
This community of low-tax zealots, a Conservative citadel since 1802, is home to more than half of the Daily Telegraph’s opinion writers and economic illiterates. Unable to forgive the betrayal of Liz Truss, still worshipped locally as a fiscal God, they will punish the Tories at the ballot box in the hope their cult can achieve total destruction of the world."