I'm with @Mexicanpete and think there's value on a smallish Tory majority. Going to be off the board for the rest of the afternoon as I have a splitting headache after being kicked in the head by a horse earlier.
I'm less convinced than I was. Although the constant Labour landslide narrative could keep the anti -Tory vote split or at home, so there is always an outside chance. The odds are nonetheless spectacular.
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I'm starting to suspect it's the other way round. Reform picks up 50 or so seats, the Conservatives pick up 40. Rump Con then has to merge with Reform and bend the knee. Especially if the Lib Dems pick up 51 seats or more, because it's the only way they'll be the main opposition.
That's only if the Reform narrative continues to pick up pace over the next couple of weeks, though. Otherwise the outcome will likely be the one you suggest.
I can't see Reform winning 50 seats.
That Goodwin poll, Baxtered, would put the Tories on 45 seats and Reform on 51, with the Lib Dems at 64.
So that poll would need to be replicated - at the moment it looks like an outlier. But if that's the direction of travel over the next couple of weeks, and we do end up on a result like that, I think you end up with a reverse takeover with Rump Con being folded into Reform.
The Tories thinking they might lose Sunak's seat in Richmond and Northallerton is proper ravens leaving the tower stuff. Their private polling must be indicating total meltdown.
On the last point, I suspect that's journalistic license based on the Savanta poll. There's no way anyone at CCHQ is admitting that to a journalist.
If this election has shown us anything, it is that there no depth to the stupidity of people at CCHQ.
Setting aside the campaign gaffes, calling the election now is just plain daft. Hard to know why they didnt go long.
- inflation down again -will be followed ( eventually ) by unterest rates and lower mortgages - economy creeping back to life - by October Farage would be too heavily ensconced in USA
1) Inflation will be up again in September / October as the energy price cuts in summer 2023 are now a year old. 2)If your previous mortgage was at 2% the fact the remortgage offer is now 4.3% rather than 4.6% doesn't solve anything (and that 4.3% is only back to the rate Eek twin A got in February). 3) not what I'm seeing - a lot of IT projects are on hold / being scaled back... 4) only upside but remember Farage was wrongfooted by the announcement.
Also we have 5) possible royal funeral with pause...
Excl: Here's what happens if you scrape Betfair data for bets on a July election.
This graph cuts off at the end of 21 May, the day before Sunak announced the election.
There's a flood of bets that day - before Rishi formally told the cabinet and stood in Downing Street.
I suspect this story is going to be even worse than the Tories might think.
Obviously it’s not on the scale of expenses (nowhere near) BUT I think it needles the same part of the psyche around fair play and abuse of power. It cuts through to people.
Truly, from the announcement in the rain through D-Day, the naughty flutters and the underpinning drumbeat of Rishi looking a tit in various situations, this is an omnishambles campaign for the ages.
If we discount Goodwin for now, Labour's 36 with YouGov is the lowest since July 2022 and the second lowest Lab VI since Con last led in the polls....... Good job Farage is about
I'm with @Mexicanpete and think there's value on a smallish Tory majority. Going to be off the board for the rest of the afternoon as I have a splitting headache after being kicked in the head by a horse earlier.
If we discount Goodwin for now, Labour's 36 with YouGov is the lowest since July 2022 and the second lowest Lab VI since Con last led in the polls....... Good job Farage is about
Different methodology – this poll uses MRP methodology so can't be compared.
Excl: Here's what happens if you scrape Betfair data for bets on a July election.
This graph cuts off at the end of 21 May, the day before Sunak announced the election.
There's a flood of bets that day - before Rishi formally told the cabinet and stood in Downing Street.
Thanks William.
I lost about £200 on that market. Now as a seasoned punter I'm obviously prepared for that kind of thing and certainly don't expect anyone to feel sorry for me, but if it turns out that political insiders were using privileged positions for personal financial gain, I should say that is a little bit beyond the pale.
Wait, you didn’t follow my tip in March on a July election at 20s?
Labour just 3 points up on last time. Obviously losing a lot of support in some of their safe seats.
Labour down 4% on even Corbyn's 40% in 2017 now and miles behind Blair's 43% in 1997 if Yougov is correct. Starmer now doing no better than Cameron did in 2010 on voteshare but will win more seats due to the Tories only being just ahead of Reform.
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I'm starting to suspect it's the other way round. Reform picks up 50 or so seats, the Conservatives pick up 40. Rump Con then has to merge with Reform and bend the knee. Especially if the Lib Dems pick up 51 seats or more, because it's the only way they'll be the main opposition.
That's only if the Reform narrative continues to pick up pace over the next couple of weeks, though. Otherwise the outcome will likely be the one you suggest.
I can't see Reform winning 50 seats.
That Goodwin poll, Baxtered, would put the Tories on 45 seats and Reform on 51, with the Lib Dems at 64.
So that poll would need to be replicated - at the moment it looks like an outlier. But if that's the direction of travel over the next couple of weeks, and we do end up on a result like that, I think you end up with a reverse takeover with Rump Con being folded into Reform.
The Tories thinking they might lose Sunak's seat in Richmond and Northallerton is proper ravens leaving the tower stuff. Their private polling must be indicating total meltdown.
On the last point, I suspect that's journalistic license based on the Savanta poll. There's no way anyone at CCHQ is admitting that to a journalist.
If this election has shown us anything, it is that there no depth to the stupidity of people at CCHQ.
Setting aside the campaign gaffes, calling the election now is just plain daft. Hard to know why they didnt go long.
- inflation down again -will be followed ( eventually ) by unterest rates and lower mortgages - economy creeping back to life - by October Farage would be too heavily ensconced in USA
I genuinely think the best available explanation is that the King asked him to, in order to avoid the risk of the succession and a Monarch's funeral happening during the election campaign. Otherwise it would have been Nov-Dec.
July is worse in every way than May. CCHQ weren't ready. All the other explanations rely on Sunak being a completely selfish bellend, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
It's going to come down to vote efficiency, though. And at the moment there is a reason to imagine that the Tory / Reform vote will be highly inefficient, whereas the anti-Tory vote will be efficient (I imagine the Labour vote will be quite inefficient but will still allow them to win stupid number of seats).
Like electoral calculus, if tactical voting was 100% across the parties (obviously won't happen), puts this poll with 114 Tories, 417 Lab, 70 LDs, 3 Ref and 1 Green. Make it so more Labour and LD voters are tactically voting than Tories and Ref - let's say 33% for Lab, LD and Green and only 10% for Ref and Tories, and Lab get another 15 odd seats and Tories are below 100. I don't know what we think the level of tactical voting will be, but it won't favour the Tories.
If we discount Goodwin for now, Labour's 36 with YouGov is the lowest since July 2022 and the second lowest Lab VI since Con last led in the polls....... Good job Farage is about
Different methodology – this poll uses MRP methodology so can't be compared.
Compared to what? It's their lowest score in any poll (pp aside) since July 2022, they all have 'a methodology'
FWIW, I think Reform will end up with less than 10 seats - with Conservative getting around 120. Farage will offer to fold Reform into Conservatives which will be named the Conservative Reform Alliance Party. Nobody at CCHQ will notice the acronym.
It's going to come down to vote efficiency, though. And at the moment there is a reason to imagine that the Tory / Reform vote will be highly inefficient, whereas the anti-Tory vote will be efficient (I imagine the Labour vote will be quite inefficient but will still allow them to win stupid number of seats).
Like electoral calculus, if tactical voting was 100% across the parties (obviously won't happen), puts this poll with 114 Tories, 417 Lab, 70 LDs, 3 Ref and 1 Green. Make it so more Labour and LD voters are tactically voting than Tories and Ref - let's say 33% for Lab, LD and Green and only 10% for Ref and Tories, and Lab get another 15 odd seats and Tories are below 100. I don't know what we think the level of tactical voting will be, but it won't favour the Tories.
Yes agreed. All available evidence suggests the anti-Tory vote is far far more efficient than before
O/T but not great to have attention on this NHS (England, I think only?) policy just now for the Gmt, if this issue gains traction, with at least one NHS body pretending they are pukka physicians:
'I’m talking about the Department of Health and Social Care’s project to rapidly expand so-called medical associate professions (MAPs), the largest group of which are termed physician associates (PAs). None of these groups have a medical degree, nor postgraduate medical training. But their deployment in our health service is billed as “essential” workforce planning – the only way to address rising patient demand and a desperate shortage of trained medics.'
WE NEED TO START TRAINING LOCALLY. AAARGH!
Remarkably the government has contrived to create a shortage of doctors and a shortage of jobs for doctors at the same time.
Why are doctors struggling to find jobs in an NHS so short of clinicians? Deficiencies in workforce planning have meant a mismatch between trainee numbers and posts https://www.bmj.com/content/385/bmj.q1072
One assumes they've enough canvassing data that even the dimwits at CCHQ know where they are in general terms - 50, 100, 150 or 200. With the exception of the odd London or Scottish seat, defending 10,000 majorities seems pointless, 15,000 draws a line at about '1997' levels and 20,000 is basically a 100 seat strategy. Let's see where the resource goes in, but in this much of a shellacking they might easily overestimate chances still
The problem is, there comes a point where admitting how fucked they are could fuck them further. If they think they are sub 100 seats, for example, then letting that get out will embolden more people to abandon them - people don't like backing a loser and if Reform is on the up and up getting in whilst they're still new and exciting will be preferable for many people. I think the Tories need to walk this line quite delicately - admitting they're losing to try and get people to stay on the sinking ship to help bail out the water to sail again another day is needed, but if people think the boat can't be salvaged they'll abandon ship even quicker.
And this would be Labour's worst nightmare. If you could hypothetically drive the Tory vote down to zero, the political map would suddenly look like a sea of light blue and yellow.
I can assure you that Labour supporters have several worse nightmares than the near-extinction of the Tory party.
Farage as leader of the opposition of a Reform Party with over 200 seats taking over a rump Tory party of less than 10 seats and challenging for PM in 2029 as the economy under the Starmer government collapses with high taxes, high inflation and strikes?
NO, don´t sniff the same stuff as Leon... Its bad for you.
If we discount Goodwin for now, Labour's 36 with YouGov is the lowest since July 2022 and the second lowest Lab VI since Con last led in the polls....... Good job Farage is about
Well - to a point. The biggest winners from the campaign are the LD’s IMHO. In September 2023 they had 1 R&W poll at 14%. Prior to that and since they were hovering at 11% or so. This is an F the Tories election and that means the LD’s will benefit where it counts. There’s no great enthusiasm for anything except inflicting a punishment beating and for many voters the LDs are the nearest stick to hand. It’s no longer fanciful to see them as the Official Opposition - that’s how far they’ve come as a result.
Labour just 3 points up on last time. Obviously losing a lot of support in some of their safe seats.
Labour down 4% on even Corbyn's 40% in 2017 now and miles behind Blair's 43% in 1997 if Yougov is correct. Starmer now doing no better than Cameron did in 2010 on voteshare but will win more seats due to the Tories only being just ahead of Reform.
Labour just 3 points up on the last election. Obviously losing a lot of support in some of their safe seats.
36% is similar to the 35% of PP........the PP honestly doesn't look like THAT much of an outlier
That’s an interesting point. It’s the Tory/Reform switcharoo that we really need to know much more about. How many will ‘go home’ on polling day?
As far as I know, there isn’t a Tory/Reform tactical website equivalent? ‘Worst for Britain’ maybe…
Appreciate that many Reform voters actually prefer Labour to the Tories currently! And that it would be much harder to make a Tory/Reform tactical voting website dynamic enough.
But if Reform voters could become more efficient that could have a big big impact. Probably very hard though.
Excl: Here's what happens if you scrape Betfair data for bets on a July election.
This graph cuts off at the end of 21 May, the day before Sunak announced the election.
There's a flood of bets that day - before Rishi formally told the cabinet and stood in Downing Street.
Thanks William.
I lost about £200 on that market. Now as a seasoned punter I'm obviously prepared for that kind of thing and certainly don't expect anyone to feel sorry for me, but if it turns out that political insiders were using privileged positions for personal financial gain, I should say that is a little bit beyond the pale.
Wait, you didn’t follow my tip in March on a July election at 20s?
If we do see a result like the polls are indicating then we really do need to move to PR but with Labour sitting on a majority of 200 seats or more, the chances of that are somewhere between none and zero lol!
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I think this is likely - except for the "Tories have 150 seats" part. One of the problems for Farage may be that FPTP actually prevents a Tory/RefUK merger making him LOTO if the LDs do well enough. I don't think he will have the same incentives or ability to force himself on the Tory party if he doesn't also get to be LOTO. He will have much more of an incentive to claim Reform slew the Conservatives In Name Only dragon and that Reform should be the next logical party for the right.
Of course this is an interesting issue. But there are questions which Goodwin, Leon and Farage would have to face from someone as and when a merger is proposed between the Rump Tories and Reform.
A populist party is different in kind from a real one. Real ones, even though everyone makes allowance for lies and distortions, have to have policies and practices in some conformity with the laws of complex reality.
So take four sample questions for Reform which would require actual answers:
Where do you stand in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Give a coherent account of your tax, spending, debt, borrowing and deficit policy in the immediate 10 year term after running it past the IFS
Is Trump a liar, a fraud, a crook and one who sought to subvert an election illegally?
Is there any truth in the QAnon type conspiracy theories?
It wouldn't surprise me if the Labour score of 36% is broadly accurate. It doesn't take much to explain - if we take 45% as the recent baseline, where have the 9% gone? I'd guess: - 3% seduced by Farage - 3% turned off by lack of socialism and policy on Gaza - gone largely to Greens and independents/WPB - 3% accounted for by tactical voting - would still vote Labour, but aren't doing so due to circumstances in their particular constituency.
O/T but not great to have attention on this NHS (England, I think only?) policy just now for the Gmt, if this issue gains traction, with at least one NHS body pretending they are pukka physicians:
'I’m talking about the Department of Health and Social Care’s project to rapidly expand so-called medical associate professions (MAPs), the largest group of which are termed physician associates (PAs). None of these groups have a medical degree, nor postgraduate medical training. But their deployment in our health service is billed as “essential” workforce planning – the only way to address rising patient demand and a desperate shortage of trained medics.'
WE NEED TO START TRAINING LOCALLY. AAARGH!
Remarkably the government has contrived to create a shortage of doctors and a shortage of jobs for doctors at the same time.
Why are doctors struggling to find jobs in an NHS so short of clinicians? Deficiencies in workforce planning have meant a mismatch between trainee numbers and posts https://www.bmj.com/content/385/bmj.q1072
It may resemble it, but at least we can now be pretty sure this will not be a Carry On.
What do we think is causing Labour to gradually slip from the 40s into the 30s?
Labour > Lib/Green ? Labour to Ref in the red wall? The fact Starmer has never done better than Kinnock in terms of his personal ratings and people are seeing a lot more of him now?
Labour just 3 points up on last time. Obviously losing a lot of support in some of their safe seats.
Labour down 4% on even Corbyn's 40% in 2017 now and miles behind Blair's 43% in 1997 if Yougov is correct. Starmer now doing no better than Cameron did in 2010 on voteshare but will win more seats due to the Tories only being just ahead of Reform.
Won't happen. IF Labour get 36% on polling day they will not have a 200 odd seat majority. or even a even a 150 seat one. The forces of nature will bring them back down one way or another
What do we think is causing Labour to gradually slip from the 40s into the 30s?
Labour > Lib/Green ? Labour to Ref in the red wall? The fact Starmer has never done better than Kinnock in terms of his personal ratings and people are seeing a lot more of him now?
YouGov like a lot of pollsters is giving the respondents their exact ballot paper for their constituency so we can see some tactical voters shifting to the Lib Dems.
If we discount Goodwin for now, Labour's 36 with YouGov is the lowest since July 2022 and the second lowest Lab VI since Con last led in the polls....... Good job Farage is about
Well - to a point. The biggest winners from the campaign are the LD’s IMHO. In September 2023 they had 1 R&W poll at 14%. Prior to that and since they were hovering at 11% or so. This is an F the Tories election and that means the LD’s will benefit where it counts. There’s no great enthusiasm for anything except inflicting a punishment beating and for many voters the LDs are the nearest stick to hand. It’s no longer fanciful to see them as the Official Opposition - that’s how far they’ve come as a result.
The next few years may be a golden opportunity for the Lib Dems to make the leap to the big time. If they can find a charismatic leader who is prepared to move the party a little to the right, they could provide a home for defectors from the left wing of the disintegrating Tories (while the remainder is absorbed by Reform) and become the new main centre-right party. They may be supplemented by defectors (of members and voters) from the right wing of Labour as the party inevitably loses popularity during government. Perhaps there is money to be made on betting on the Lib Dems as forming the next but one government.
What do we think is causing Labour to gradually slip from the 40s into the 30s?
Labour > Lib/Green ? Labour to Ref in the red wall? The fact Starmer has never done better than Kinnock in terms of his personal ratings and people are seeing a lot more of him now?
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I think this is likely - except for the "Tories have 150 seats" part. One of the problems for Farage may be that FPTP actually prevents a Tory/RefUK merger making him LOTO if the LDs do well enough. I don't think he will have the same incentives or ability to force himself on the Tory party if he doesn't also get to be LOTO. He will have much more of an incentive to claim Reform slew the Conservatives In Name Only dragon and that Reform should be the next logical party for the right.
Of course this is an interesting issue. But there are questions which Goodwin, Leon and Farage would have to face from someone as and when a merger is proposed between the Rump Tories and Reform.
A populist party is different in kind from a real one. Real ones, even though everyone makes allowance for lies and distortions, have to have policies and practices in some conformity with the laws of complex reality.
So take four sample questions for Reform which would require actual answers:
Where do you stand in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Give a coherent account of your tax, spending, debt, borrowing and deficit policy in the immediate 10 year term after running it past the IFS
Is Trump a liar, a fraud, a crook and one who sought to subvert an election illegally?
Is there any truth in the QAnon type conspiracy theories?
If Reform receive the votes of 20% of voters, regardless of their insane answers to those questions then the question is to the Conservative Party. Are you willing to abase yourself to these views to win these votes?
We all know the choice that most GOP politicians made.
The Labour VI in the (non-MRP) YouGovs since the methodology change at the start of the month has been 40%, 41%, 38%, 37% and 36%.
The LD VI in the same series has been 10%, 11%, 15%, 14% and 14%. I will leave it to others more competent than me to agree but that looks like an anti-Tory tactical swing to me.
Labour just 3 points up on last time. Obviously losing a lot of support in some of their safe seats.
Labour down 4% on even Corbyn's 40% in 2017 now and miles behind Blair's 43% in 1997 if Yougov is correct. Starmer now doing no better than Cameron did in 2010 on voteshare but will win more seats due to the Tories only being just ahead of Reform.
Won't happen. IF Labour get 36% on polling day they will not have a 200 odd seat majority. or even a even a 150 seat one. The forces of nature will bring them back down one way or another
If they receive about twice as many votes as any other party then FPTP does all the rest.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Labour score of 36% is broadly accurate. It doesn't take much to explain - if we take 45% as the recent baseline, where have the 9% gone? I'd guess: - 3% seduced by Farage - 3% turned off by lack of socialism and policy on Gaza - gone largely to Greens and independents/WPB - 3% accounted for by tactical voting - would still vote Labour, but aren't doing so due to circumstances in their particular constituency.
The latter may be cancelled out by those Lib Dems, such as myself, who will be voting tactically for labour this time round.
Trying to compare like with like here - there was a YouGov poll fieldwork 12-13 June.
However, the MRP produced last night was fieldwork from 11-18 June. If this new poll is based on the new MRP, we should compare it with the last MRP in which case it's Labour -3, Conservative -2, Liberal Democrat +2 and Reform +3.
If this is a new poll, the fieldwork for this was 17-18 June and you can compare it with the 12-13 June if it is of a similar type. In any case, the moves in this poll will be well within Margin of Error.
It's the first poll for a good while which has seen a rise (albeit small) in the Conservative VI and the last YouGov was the "crossover" poll which got some people over-excited. We'll need to see if We Think, Techne and Redfield & Wilton show similar movement or whether the polls will be herding around Labour in the high 30s, Conservative around 20%, Reform in the high teens, LDs in the low to mid teens.
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I'm starting to suspect it's the other way round. Reform picks up 50 or so seats, the Conservatives pick up 40. Rump Con then has to merge with Reform and bend the knee. Especially if the Lib Dems pick up 51 seats or more, because it's the only way they'll be the main opposition.
That's only if the Reform narrative continues to pick up pace over the next couple of weeks, though. Otherwise the outcome will likely be the one you suggest.
I can't see Reform winning 50 seats.
That Goodwin poll, Baxtered, would put the Tories on 45 seats and Reform on 51, with the Lib Dems at 64.
So that poll would need to be replicated - at the moment it looks like an outlier. But if that's the direction of travel over the next couple of weeks, and we do end up on a result like that, I think you end up with a reverse takeover with Rump Con being folded into Reform.
The Tories thinking they might lose Sunak's seat in Richmond and Northallerton is proper ravens leaving the tower stuff. Their private polling must be indicating total meltdown.
On the last point, I suspect that's journalistic license based on the Savanta poll. There's no way anyone at CCHQ is admitting that to a journalist.
If this election has shown us anything, it is that there no depth to the stupidity of people at CCHQ.
Setting aside the campaign gaffes, calling the election now is just plain daft. Hard to know why they didnt go long.
- inflation down again -will be followed ( eventually ) by unterest rates and lower mortgages - economy creeping back to life - by October Farage would be too heavily ensconced in USA
I genuinely think the best available explanation is that the King asked him to, in order to avoid the risk of the succession and a Monarch's funeral happening during the election campaign. Otherwise it would have been Nov-Dec.
July is worse in every way than May. CCHQ weren't ready. All the other explanations rely on Sunak being a completely selfish bellend, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Charles looked OK on Saturday, it was actually as Braverman was near the numbers for a VONC in Sunak was the rumour
Labour on 36% with a triumphant epoch making victory would be exactly 3 percentage points higher than Jezza in his catastrophic disaster from which there could be no return in 2019.
Labour just 3 points up on last time. Obviously losing a lot of support in some of their safe seats.
Labour down 4% on even Corbyn's 40% in 2017 now and miles behind Blair's 43% in 1997 if Yougov is correct. Starmer now doing no better than Cameron did in 2010 on voteshare but will win more seats due to the Tories only being just ahead of Reform.
Won't happen. IF Labour get 36% on polling day they will not have a 200 odd seat majority. or even a even a 150 seat one. The forces of nature will bring them back down one way or another
Why?
You’re saying this because 36% has historically not been enough for a big majority.
And that would be right if it weren’t for the fact that the same poll has the Tories on 20%.
With the emergence of Reform the previous maxims about what % you need for what seats don’t count for much.
Labour on 36% with a triumphant epoch making victory would be exactly 3 percentage points higher than Jezza in his catastrophic disaster from which there could be no return in 2019.
Funny old game politics.
More notably, it would be 5 points down on Corbyn in 2017, (because he got 41% in GB).
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I think this is likely - except for the "Tories have 150 seats" part. One of the problems for Farage may be that FPTP actually prevents a Tory/RefUK merger making him LOTO if the LDs do well enough. I don't think he will have the same incentives or ability to force himself on the Tory party if he doesn't also get to be LOTO. He will have much more of an incentive to claim Reform slew the Conservatives In Name Only dragon and that Reform should be the next logical party for the right.
Of course this is an interesting issue. But there are questions which Goodwin, Leon and Farage would have to face from someone as and when a merger is proposed between the Rump Tories and Reform.
A populist party is different in kind from a real one. Real ones, even though everyone makes allowance for lies and distortions, have to have policies and practices in some conformity with the laws of complex reality.
So take four sample questions for Reform which would require actual answers:
Where do you stand in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Give a coherent account of your tax, spending, debt, borrowing and deficit policy in the immediate 10 year term after running it past the IFS
Is Trump a liar, a fraud, a crook and one who sought to subvert an election illegally?
Is there any truth in the QAnon type conspiracy theories?
If Reform receive the votes of 20% of voters, regardless of their insane answers to those questions then the question is to the Conservative Party. Are you willing to abase yourself to these views to win these votes?
We all know the choice that most GOP politicians made.
Of course that element of political life would be around, but the element I am drawing attention to would not be absent; it would become urgently impossible to ignore in any country with a sentient free press (which we still are, just about).
FWIW, I think Reform will end up with less than 10 seats - with Conservative getting around 120. Farage will offer to fold Reform into Conservatives which will be named the Conservative Reform Alliance Party. Nobody at CCHQ will notice the acronym.
I'd heard it was going to be the Farage Unionist Conservative (Keir's Enemies) Reform Squad.
Labour on 36% with a triumphant epoch making victory would be exactly 3 percentage points higher than Jezza in his catastrophic disaster from which there could be no return in 2019.
Funny old game politics.
That is simply FPTP... It really is time to change this archaic voting system.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Labour score of 36% is broadly accurate. It doesn't take much to explain - if we take 45% as the recent baseline, where have the 9% gone? I'd guess: - 3% seduced by Farage - 3% turned off by lack of socialism and policy on Gaza - gone largely to Greens and independents/WPB - 3% accounted for by tactical voting - would still vote Labour, but aren't doing so due to circumstances in their particular constituency.
The latter may be cancelled out by those Lib Dems, such as myself, who will be voting tactically for labour this time round.
Yes, but I don't think that cancels it out, because if 5% of Labour voters and 5% of Lib Dem voters decide to vote tactically, the volume of Labour voters is much, much higher than the volume of Lib Dem voters, isn't it?
What do we think is causing Labour to gradually slip from the 40s into the 30s?
Labour > Lib/Green ? Labour to Ref in the red wall? The fact Starmer has never done better than Kinnock in terms of his personal ratings and people are seeing a lot more of him now?
Their campaign is essentially defensive, avoiding any gaffes and steering clear of offering much that is interesting or inspiring. Hence the drift away to the smaller parties all of whom, in their different ways, are being more bold.
FWIW, I think Reform will end up with less than 10 seats - with Conservative getting around 120. Farage will offer to fold Reform into Conservatives which will be named the Conservative Reform Alliance Party. Nobody at CCHQ will notice the acronym.
I'd heard it was going to be the Farage Unionist Conservative (Keir's Enemies) Reform Squad.
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I'm starting to suspect it's the other way round. Reform picks up 50 or so seats, the Conservatives pick up 40. Rump Con then has to merge with Reform and bend the knee. Especially if the Lib Dems pick up 51 seats or more, because it's the only way they'll be the main opposition.
That's only if the Reform narrative continues to pick up pace over the next couple of weeks, though. Otherwise the outcome will likely be the one you suggest.
I can't see Reform winning 50 seats.
That Goodwin poll, Baxtered, would put the Tories on 45 seats and Reform on 51, with the Lib Dems at 64.
So that poll would need to be replicated - at the moment it looks like an outlier. But if that's the direction of travel over the next couple of weeks, and we do end up on a result like that, I think you end up with a reverse takeover with Rump Con being folded into Reform.
The Tories thinking they might lose Sunak's seat in Richmond and Northallerton is proper ravens leaving the tower stuff. Their private polling must be indicating total meltdown.
On the last point, I suspect that's journalistic license based on the Savanta poll. There's no way anyone at CCHQ is admitting that to a journalist.
If this election has shown us anything, it is that there no depth to the stupidity of people at CCHQ.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Labour score of 36% is broadly accurate. It doesn't take much to explain - if we take 45% as the recent baseline, where have the 9% gone? I'd guess: - 3% seduced by Farage - 3% turned off by lack of socialism and policy on Gaza - gone largely to Greens and independents/WPB - 3% accounted for by tactical voting - would still vote Labour, but aren't doing so due to circumstances in their particular constituency.
The latter may be cancelled out by those Lib Dems, such as myself, who will be voting tactically for labour this time round.
Yes, but I don't think that cancels it out, because if 5% of Labour voters and 5% of Lib Dem voters decide to vote tactically, the volume of Labour voters is much, much higher than the volume of Lib Dem voters, isn't it?
I'm not sure you can assume that those percentages will be equal. I'd have thought that a higher proportion of Lib Dems will find themselves in marginal Lab/Con constituencies that the proportion of Labour voters in LD/Con marginals. But I appreciate the point.
I'm with @Mexicanpete and think there's value on a smallish Tory majority. Going to be off the board for the rest of the afternoon as I have a splitting headache after being kicked in the head by a horse earlier.
I'm less convinced than I was. Although the constant Labour landslide narrative could keep the anti -Tory vote split or at home, so there is always an outside chance. The odds are nonetheless spectacular.
What is your current forecast of the result?
Anything from a moderate Labour majority (no landslide) to a small Conservative majority and all points in between. The Conservative majority is less likely than I once thought but don't rule it out.
"I don’t think Rishi Sunak has the skillset to fight a general election campaign which is impacting my thoughts."
You think?
Sunak........very smart but very dumb at the same time
He's no doubt an intelligent fellow, but totally lacks the 'common touch ' and as a result comes across as inauthentic. He also has rubbish advisor's, hence the multiple missteps.
Labour on 36% with a triumphant epoch making victory would be exactly 3 percentage points higher than Jezza in his catastrophic disaster from which there could be no return in 2019.
Funny old game politics.
That is simply FPTP... It really is time to change this archaic voting system.
The Labour VI in the (non-MRP) YouGovs since the methodology change at the start of the month has been 40%, 41%, 38%, 37% and 36%.
The LD VI in the same series has been 10%, 11%, 15%, 14% and 14%. I will leave it to others more competent than me to agree but that looks like an anti-Tory tactical swing to me.
Or, heaven forfend, an actual swing from Labour to the LDs?
It wouldn't surprise me if the Labour score of 36% is broadly accurate. It doesn't take much to explain - if we take 45% as the recent baseline, where have the 9% gone? I'd guess: - 3% seduced by Farage - 3% turned off by lack of socialism and policy on Gaza - gone largely to Greens and independents/WPB - 3% accounted for by tactical voting - would still vote Labour, but aren't doing so due to circumstances in their particular constituency.
The latter may be cancelled out by those Lib Dems, such as myself, who will be voting tactically for labour this time round.
Yes, but I don't think that cancels it out, because if 5% of Labour voters and 5% of Lib Dem voters decide to vote tactically, the volume of Labour voters is much, much higher than the volume of Lib Dem voters, isn't it?
But the number of seats where the obvious tactical vote is for Labour is higher than for those where the tactical vote is for the Lib Dems, which is why Labour are on course for more than 200 gains and the Lib Dems maybe 70, at best.
I'm with @Mexicanpete and think there's value on a smallish Tory majority. Going to be off the board for the rest of the afternoon as I have a splitting headache after being kicked in the head by a horse earlier.
I'm less convinced than I was. Although the constant Labour landslide narrative could keep the anti -Tory vote split or at home, so there is always an outside chance. The odds are nonetheless spectacular.
What is your current forecast of the result?
Anything from a moderate Labour majority (no landslide) to a small Conservative majority and all points in between. The Conservative majority is less likely than I once thought but don't rule it out.
I've never understood your view of the Tory party as the Terminator. Look at 2017. That applies to Labour as well but you're absolutely fixated on 1992.
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I'm starting to suspect it's the other way round. Reform picks up 50 or so seats, the Conservatives pick up 40. Rump Con then has to merge with Reform and bend the knee. Especially if the Lib Dems pick up 51 seats or more, because it's the only way they'll be the main opposition.
That's only if the Reform narrative continues to pick up pace over the next couple of weeks, though. Otherwise the outcome will likely be the one you suggest.
I can't see Reform winning 50 seats.
That Goodwin poll, Baxtered, would put the Tories on 45 seats and Reform on 51, with the Lib Dems at 64.
So that poll would need to be replicated - at the moment it looks like an outlier. But if that's the direction of travel over the next couple of weeks, and we do end up on a result like that, I think you end up with a reverse takeover with Rump Con being folded into Reform.
The Tories thinking they might lose Sunak's seat in Richmond and Northallerton is proper ravens leaving the tower stuff. Their private polling must be indicating total meltdown.
On the last point, I suspect that's journalistic license based on the Savanta poll. There's no way anyone at CCHQ is admitting that to a journalist.
If this election has shown us anything, it is that there no depth to the stupidity of people at CCHQ.
Has a Downfall parody been made of this yet?
They are still searching for the Downfall clip where all the Nazi generals nip out to the betting shop.
Labour on 36% with a triumphant epoch making victory would be exactly 3 percentage points higher than Jezza in his catastrophic disaster from which there could be no return in 2019.
Funny old game politics.
More notably, it would be 5 points down on Corbyn in 2017, (because he got 41% in GB).
But both results would, frankly, get the "feel" of the country about right. Somewhere deep in the workings of FPTP there's a mechanism that converts vibes into seats reasonably accurately. It's something to do with the willingness of voters to vote tactically. What made Labour's 2019 performance so bad was not just that 33% is an objectively poor score, but also that the other 67% were in broad agreement that Labour had to be stopped.
Thinking about 2017 from the other side, May got a considerably higher share of the vote than Cameron got in 2015 (42% up from 37%). But her seat count went down, and that was pretty well justified.
The Labour VI in the (non-MRP) YouGovs since the methodology change at the start of the month has been 40%, 41%, 38%, 37% and 36%.
The LD VI in the same series has been 10%, 11%, 15%, 14% and 14%. I will leave it to others more competent than me to agree but that looks like an anti-Tory tactical swing to me.
Or, heaven forfend, an actual swing from Labour to the LDs?
Indeed. The LibDems often increase in polling during an election campaign because they get more attention than usual.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Labour score of 36% is broadly accurate. It doesn't take much to explain - if we take 45% as the recent baseline, where have the 9% gone? I'd guess: - 3% seduced by Farage - 3% turned off by lack of socialism and policy on Gaza - gone largely to Greens and independents/WPB - 3% accounted for by tactical voting - would still vote Labour, but aren't doing so due to circumstances in their particular constituency.
The latter may be cancelled out by those Lib Dems, such as myself, who will be voting tactically for labour this time round.
The change may actually be due to the opposite - people who were prepared to vote Labour tactically when the contest looked too early to call, but who now feel able to return to their first preference now that the Tory campaign has so spectacularly failed? Coupled with people seeing that if Labour is heading for a huge majority, electing yet another Labour MP isn't particularly critical, or even desirable.
"I don’t think Rishi Sunak has the skillset to fight a general election campaign which is impacting my thoughts."
You think?
Sunak........very smart but very dumb at the same time
I'm at the stage where Conservative candidates should all be junked unless they've all been comprehensively reselected, they have excellent careers, they've all been on weeks of training and due diligence has been done on all of them.
My guess is after the election Nigel Farage MP makes a generous and open offer to dissolve Reform UK, a party he owns, and join the Tory party along with his handful of MPs. Hard for the Tories to refuse, I would have thought. Reuniting the right will be an imperative. Say he has 5 MPs and the Tories have 150. He will put himself forward for the leadership of the party, and every Tory MP will find themselves under huge pressure from local Conservative Associations and constituents to make sure his name is in the final two offered to members. If it is, Farage will be Tory leader. If it isn't, he will claim an establishment stitch up and exit the party at a time of his choosing, bringing with him far more MPs than the five he had before. Sound plausible?
I'm starting to suspect it's the other way round. Reform picks up 50 or so seats, the Conservatives pick up 40. Rump Con then has to merge with Reform and bend the knee. Especially if the Lib Dems pick up 51 seats or more, because it's the only way they'll be the main opposition.
That's only if the Reform narrative continues to pick up pace over the next couple of weeks, though. Otherwise the outcome will likely be the one you suggest.
I can't see Reform winning 50 seats.
That Goodwin poll, Baxtered, would put the Tories on 45 seats and Reform on 51, with the Lib Dems at 64.
So that poll would need to be replicated - at the moment it looks like an outlier. But if that's the direction of travel over the next couple of weeks, and we do end up on a result like that, I think you end up with a reverse takeover with Rump Con being folded into Reform.
The Tories thinking they might lose Sunak's seat in Richmond and Northallerton is proper ravens leaving the tower stuff. Their private polling must be indicating total meltdown.
On the last point, I suspect that's journalistic license based on the Savanta poll. There's no way anyone at CCHQ is admitting that to a journalist.
If this election has shown us anything, it is that there no depth to the stupidity of people at CCHQ.
Has a Downfall parody been made of this yet?
They are still searching for the film clip where all the Nazi generals nip out to the betting shop.
It's the map: I am placing out of bounds the betting shops here, here and here
Mein fuhrer ... We are all on July with Betfair exchange at 25...
Largest order in company history: Rheinmetall receives framework contract for 155mm artillery ammunition for the Bundeswehr with a total gross value of up to €8.5 billion
Deliveries are to begin at the start of 2025. The primary purchaser will be the Federal Republic of Germany, which will provide part of the supplies to the Ukraine. Additionally, the partner countries of the Netherlands, Estonia and Denmark are also participating in the order.
At the same time, an initial call-off from the framework contract was contracted to ensure the capacity utilisation of the new factory being built in Unterluess (Lower Saxony) in Germany during the start-up phase. This order also comprises the delivery of 155mm calibre projectiles in different versions with a gross order value of around €880m. Deliveries are also scheduled to begin in 2025. Further increased call-offs are also expected in the coming years.
Armin Papperger, Chairman of the Executive Board of Rheinmetall AG: “We are delighted about the largest order in our company’s recent history. This large-volume framework contract underlines Rheinmetall’s leading role as an ammunition supplier in Germany and our position as the world’s largest manufacturer of artillery ammunition. We highly appreciate the great trust that is expressed in this long-term order as part of the security provision of the Federal Republic of Germany and its allies.”
“The Federal Government is keeping its word. This framework contract will ensure the necessary capacity utilisation of the new factory that we are building at our Unterluess site in Lower Saxony to supply our armed forces with ammunition. The Federal Chancellor assured us of this during his visit on the occasion of the ground-breaking ceremony on 12 February 2024,” Papperger continued.
Rheinmetall will produce the entire value chain for artillery ammunition in Unterluess, Lower Saxony, in order to be able to offer the “full shot” by a single source: the projectile, the fuse, the explosive charge and the propellant charge that propels the projectile out of the barrel when fired. An annual capacity of 100,000 projectiles will be achieved on site from the second year of production, increasing up to 200,000 p.a...
I'm with @Mexicanpete and think there's value on a smallish Tory majority. Going to be off the board for the rest of the afternoon as I have a splitting headache after being kicked in the head by a horse earlier.
I'm less convinced than I was. Although the constant Labour landslide narrative could keep the anti -Tory vote split or at home, so there is always an outside chance. The odds are nonetheless spectacular.
What is your current forecast of the result?
Anything from a moderate Labour majority (no landslide) to a small Conservative majority and all points in between. The Conservative majority is less likely than I once thought but don't rule it out.
Tory majority trading at 130 on Betfair. I assume you have put everything on that bet? You can also get 27 on NOM.
"I don’t think Rishi Sunak has the skillset to fight a general election campaign which is impacting my thoughts."
You think?
Sunak........very smart but very dumb at the same time
I'm at the stage where Conservative candidates should all be junked unless they've all been comprehensively reselected, they have excellent careers, they've all been on weeks of training and due diligence has been done on all of them.
The quality. Oh my word.
if you'd like suggestions, I know of a company that can do some unconscious bias training
Thanks for the tip! Maybe you should join me; they say it's great for those who are unaware they need it the most.
The Labour VI in the (non-MRP) YouGovs since the methodology change at the start of the month has been 40%, 41%, 38%, 37% and 36%.
The LD VI in the same series has been 10%, 11%, 15%, 14% and 14%. I will leave it to others more competent than me to agree but that looks like an anti-Tory tactical swing to me.
Or, heaven forfend, an actual swing from Labour to the LDs?
Indeed. The LibDems often increase in polling during an election campaign because they get more attention than usual.
It's probably worth looking at all rural Tory seats now and seeing where the LDs might be able to take from a very long way back.
Whether the real votes follow the predictions is an open question, but in stated preference at least it's clear Reform are not about to collapse, and historic Tory voters do not care if the party is destroyed.
I'm changing my prediction to Tories to be sub 100 seats.
Comments
2)If your previous mortgage was at 2% the fact the remortgage offer is now 4.3% rather than 4.6% doesn't solve anything (and that 4.3% is only back to the rate Eek twin A got in February).
3) not what I'm seeing - a lot of IT projects are on hold / being scaled back...
4) only upside but remember Farage was wrongfooted by the announcement.
Also we have 5) possible royal funeral with pause...
Obviously it’s not on the scale of expenses (nowhere near) BUT I think it needles the same part of the psyche around fair play and abuse of power. It cuts through to people.
Truly, from the announcement in the rain through D-Day, the naughty flutters and the underpinning drumbeat of Rishi looking a tit in various situations, this is an omnishambles campaign for the ages.
Good job Farage is about
Also note that Reform are falling too*
*Actually it's all MOE on their last MRP-based survey.
For shame.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/03/27/we-may-need-to-revise-our-summer-plans/
In seats it gives Labour 428, Tories 106 and LDs 64, SNP 21, Reform 4 and Greens 2
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=20&LAB=36&LIB=14&Reform=18&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.2&SCOTLAB=36.7&SCOTLIB=6.9&SCOTReform=3.2&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
July is worse in every way than May. CCHQ weren't ready. All the other explanations rely on Sunak being a completely selfish bellend, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Testing
Acceptance
https://www.mortons-solicitors.co.uk/the-offence-of-cheating-using-inside-information-to-place-a-bet/
...THE OFFENCE OF CHEATING
Section 42 of the Gambling Act 2005 makes it an offence to cheat at gambling.
To cheat [and defraud] is to act with deliberate dishonesty to the prejudice of another person’s proprietary right, which in the context of gambling means defeating the element of chance...
https://assets.ctfassets.net/j16ev64qyf6l/4KPgzbWpVpd5ZPsE444S9F/f4c8a91df1d3e578d698a6fbd24c5a55/Misuse-of-inside-information.pdf
...There may be some limited circumstances where criminal enforcement action may be undertaken. For example, the Commission may take direct action in high-impact cases, where there is a history of previous behaviour known to the Commission, or where there is a need to establish legal precedent...
Like electoral calculus, if tactical voting was 100% across the parties (obviously won't happen), puts this poll with 114 Tories, 417 Lab, 70 LDs, 3 Ref and 1 Green. Make it so more Labour and LD voters are tactically voting than Tories and Ref - let's say 33% for Lab, LD and Green and only 10% for Ref and Tories, and Lab get another 15 odd seats and Tories are below 100. I don't know what we think the level of tactical voting will be, but it won't favour the Tories.
36% for Labour though is poor.
Why are doctors struggling to find jobs in an NHS so short of clinicians?
Deficiencies in workforce planning have meant a mismatch between trainee numbers and posts
https://www.bmj.com/content/385/bmj.q1072
As far as I know, there isn’t a Tory/Reform tactical website equivalent? ‘Worst for Britain’ maybe…
Appreciate that many Reform voters actually prefer Labour to the Tories currently! And that it would be much harder to make a Tory/Reform tactical voting website dynamic enough.
But if Reform voters could become more efficient that could have a big big impact. Probably very hard though.
A populist party is different in kind from a real one. Real ones, even though everyone makes allowance for lies and distortions, have to have policies and practices in some conformity with the laws of complex reality.
So take four sample questions for Reform which would require actual answers:
Where do you stand in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Give a coherent account of your tax, spending, debt, borrowing and deficit policy in the immediate 10 year term after running it past the IFS
Is Trump a liar, a fraud, a crook and one who sought to subvert an election illegally?
Is there any truth in the QAnon type conspiracy theories?
- 3% seduced by Farage
- 3% turned off by lack of socialism and policy on Gaza - gone largely to Greens and independents/WPB
- 3% accounted for by tactical voting - would still vote Labour, but aren't doing so due to circumstances in their particular constituency.
Labour > Lib/Green ? Labour to Ref in the red wall? The fact Starmer has never done better than Kinnock in terms of his personal ratings and people are seeing a lot more of him now?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223276482
this may be lost on most here
We all know the choice that most GOP politicians made.
The LD VI in the same series has been 10%, 11%, 15%, 14% and 14%. I will leave it to others more competent than me to agree but that looks like an anti-Tory tactical swing to me.
I'm looking forward to election night.
Trying to compare like with like here - there was a YouGov poll fieldwork 12-13 June.
However, the MRP produced last night was fieldwork from 11-18 June. If this new poll is based on the new MRP, we should compare it with the last MRP in which case it's Labour -3, Conservative -2, Liberal Democrat +2 and Reform +3.
If this is a new poll, the fieldwork for this was 17-18 June and you can compare it with the 12-13 June if it is of a similar type. In any case, the moves in this poll will be well within Margin of Error.
It's the first poll for a good while which has seen a rise (albeit small) in the Conservative VI and the last YouGov was the "crossover" poll which got some people over-excited. We'll need to see if We Think, Techne and Redfield & Wilton show similar movement or whether the polls will be herding around Labour in the high 30s, Conservative around 20%, Reform in the high teens, LDs in the low to mid teens.
Funny old game politics.
You think?
You’re saying this because 36% has historically not been enough for a big majority.
And that would be right if it weren’t for the fact that the same poll has the Tories on 20%.
With the emergence of Reform the previous maxims about what % you need for what seats don’t count for much.
Lower than Cameron got in 2010.
Sunak appearing with a herd of sheep ignoring him?
Thinking about 2017 from the other side, May got a considerably higher share of the vote than Cameron got in 2015 (42% up from 37%). But her seat count went down, and that was pretty well justified.
The quality. Oh my word.
Mein fuhrer ... We are all on July with Betfair exchange at 25...
Heading for 2 million votes less than they got under Jezza in 2017. I think I predicted 36% in the PB GE 2024 competition.
Am going to be miles out on the Con % though.
Highest Reform %.
Tied-lowest Conservative %.
🇬🇧 Westminster VI (19-20 June):
Labour 42% (-1)
Reform 19% (+1)
Conservative 18% (–)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 14-17 June
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1803812553069383879
Also, you supported Johnson, you said you'd like to have him re-elected.
The corrupt Tories are now fully exposed by this betting data. Reform must replace them.
https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/06/2024-06-20-rheinmetall-receives-framework-contract-for-155mm-ammunition
..An existing framework contract has been expanded considerably. The main purpose of the order is to replenish the stocks held by the Bundeswehr and its allies, as well as to provide support to the Ukraine in its defence campaign.
Deliveries are to begin at the start of 2025. The primary purchaser will be the Federal Republic of Germany, which will provide part of the supplies to the Ukraine. Additionally, the partner countries of the Netherlands, Estonia and Denmark are also participating in the order.
At the same time, an initial call-off from the framework contract was contracted to ensure the capacity utilisation of the new factory being built in Unterluess (Lower Saxony) in Germany during the start-up phase. This order also comprises the delivery of 155mm calibre projectiles in different versions with a gross order value of around €880m. Deliveries are also scheduled to begin in 2025. Further increased call-offs are also expected in the coming years.
Armin Papperger, Chairman of the Executive Board of Rheinmetall AG: “We are delighted about the largest order in our company’s recent history. This large-volume framework contract underlines Rheinmetall’s leading role as an ammunition supplier in Germany and our position as the world’s largest manufacturer of artillery ammunition. We highly appreciate the great trust that is expressed in this long-term order as part of the security provision of the Federal Republic of Germany and its allies.”
“The Federal Government is keeping its word. This framework contract will ensure the necessary capacity utilisation of the new factory that we are building at our Unterluess site in Lower Saxony to supply our armed forces with ammunition. The Federal Chancellor assured us of this during his visit on the occasion of the ground-breaking ceremony on 12 February 2024,” Papperger continued.
Rheinmetall will produce the entire value chain for artillery ammunition in Unterluess, Lower Saxony, in order to be able to offer the “full shot” by a single source: the projectile, the fuse, the explosive charge and the propellant charge that propels the projectile out of the barrel when fired. An annual capacity of 100,000 projectiles will be achieved on site from the second year of production, increasing up to 200,000 p.a...
Either that or you are just trollcasting. Again.
I'm changing my prediction to Tories to be sub 100 seats.