Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
I realise it falls under "nice problem to have" but a mahoosive Labour majority is going to create an opposition problem which will be awkward even for SKS Fans.
If the official opposition is 100 Tories then it is, probably, not the brightest and best of them. And they're not going to be doing a lot of opposing, at least for the first two years while they're in full-on recrimination mode with and choosing a new leader.
Or if the official opposition is 60 LibDems then it's going to be genuinely difficult to fill all the shadow minister posts, especially given that most of them will have no experience of being an MP.
Both of these sound good for Labour, but the media - understandably - seeks out conflict. And if the opposition isn't generating those stories, reporters are going to start looking for conflict within Labour. (Gotta fill those pages somehow.) All of a sudden, Jared O'Trotsky, the incompletely vetted surprise Labour MP for Lower Stinchcombe on Thames, has a megaphone he wasn't expecting.
I'm sure Sue Gray has been wargaming this for weeks, but Labour on 500 seats is not an easy situation for anyone.
O/T: How does the curtis exit poll deal with postal votes?
You know, I was just wondering exactly that too.
Answers on a postcard?
It’s a potential weakness, but the simple answer is that they try to use the same polling stations each time and hope that any shift in the polling station voters is mirrored amongst those voting by post. In other words, the change in votes since the previous election, compared to the previous result in that seat, is more important than the absolute numbers.
I looked at the MRP averages vs the same pollsters normal polls (a sample of 5)
So, here are the national MRP averages and how they compare with the ordinary polls MRP averages: Con 24.4 (+3.0 compared with normal polls) Lab 42.0 (+1.6) LD 11.2 (0) SNP 3.2 (+0.2) Grn 5.6 (-0.6) Ref 12.0 (-2.0) Others Inc PC 1.6 (-2.2)
There's a small discrepancy because Survation quote UK not GB on their normal polls, but even allowing for that it looks like there is about a 4-5% transfer of votes from challenger parties to incumbent parties overall inherent in the MRP process.
How do you get Reform on just 14% with normal polls?
Just an average of 5 polls including an aged 9% from IPSOS (but their MRP itself isn't the newest). I'm betting their next poll won't be 9%.
I have the overall 18 pollster (18!) average for Reform as 16%.
I realise it falls under "nice problem to have" but a mahoosive Labour majority is going to create an opposition problem which will be awkward even for SKS Fans.
If the official opposition is 100 Tories then it is, probably, not the brightest and best of them. And they're not going to be doing a lot of opposing, at least for the first two years while they're in full-on recrimination mode with and choosing a new leader.
Or if the official opposition is 60 LibDems then it's going to be genuinely difficult to fill all the shadow minister posts, especially given that most of them will have no experience of being an MP.
Both of these sound good for Labour, but the media - understandably - seeks out conflict. And if the opposition isn't generating those stories, reporters are going to start looking for conflict within Labour. (Gotta fill those pages somehow.) All of a sudden, Jared O'Trotsky, the incompletely vetted surprise Labour MP for Lower Stinchcombe on Thames, has a megaphone he wasn't expecting.
I'm sure Sue Gray has been wargaming this for weeks, but Labour on 500 seats is not an easy situation for anyone.
How many Labour coop MPs are there? Genuinely don’t know but might it be more than 100?
Labour are obviously going to win the election and probably with a record landslide but if they do poll in the 30s on election day it probably spells trouble for them in government, especially when you consider SKS has always been a relatively unpopular LOTO and certainly isn't coming to power on a wave of goodwill.
Sorry. I like a lot of what you post but this is utter rubbish.
I don't get the press going for the 'flurry of bets' data. Its millions of pounds. Are we seriously to believe the Tories managed to tell hundreds of punters but nobody in the press knew? Surely it was off the back of that press report about the planning meeting for a snap election the week before? Obviously the individuals under investigation are another matter.......
Posting on here obscures the fact that betting on politics is quite niche. A small number of bets has an outsized effect.
I realise it falls under "nice problem to have" but a mahoosive Labour majority is going to create an opposition problem which will be awkward even for SKS Fans.
If the official opposition is 100 Tories then it is, probably, not the brightest and best of them. And they're not going to be doing a lot of opposing, at least for the first two years while they're in full-on recrimination mode with and choosing a new leader.
Or if the official opposition is 60 LibDems then it's going to be genuinely difficult to fill all the shadow minister posts, especially given that most of them will have no experience of being an MP.
Both of these sound good for Labour, but the media - understandably - seeks out conflict. And if the opposition isn't generating those stories, reporters are going to start looking for conflict within Labour. (Gotta fill those pages somehow.) All of a sudden, Jared O'Trotsky, the incompletely vetted surprise Labour MP for Lower Stinchcombe on Thames, has a megaphone he wasn't expecting.
I'm sure Sue Gray has been wargaming this for weeks, but Labour on 500 seats is not an easy situation for anyone.
How many Labour coop MPs are there? Genuinely don’t know but might it be more than 100?
26, says Wiki - or rather, there *were* to be pedantic. Surprised it's so few myself.
Depending on how well they do vis-a-vis the LDs and SNP, there might be a temptation ...
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
I realise it falls under "nice problem to have" but a mahoosive Labour majority is going to create an opposition problem which will be awkward even for SKS Fans.
If the official opposition is 100 Tories then it is, probably, not the brightest and best of them. And they're not going to be doing a lot of opposing, at least for the first two years while they're in full-on recrimination mode with and choosing a new leader.
Or if the official opposition is 60 LibDems then it's going to be genuinely difficult to fill all the shadow minister posts, especially given that most of them will have no experience of being an MP.
Both of these sound good for Labour, but the media - understandably - seeks out conflict. And if the opposition isn't generating those stories, reporters are going to start looking for conflict within Labour. (Gotta fill those pages somehow.) All of a sudden, Jared O'Trotsky, the incompletely vetted surprise Labour MP for Lower Stinchcombe on Thames, has a megaphone he wasn't expecting.
I'm sure Sue Gray has been wargaming this for weeks, but Labour on 500 seats is not an easy situation for anyone.
How many Labour coop MPs are there? Genuinely don’t know but might it be more than 100?
They are usually sensible types, but I'm sure there'll be a divvy amongst them.
Labour are obviously going to win the election and probably with a record landslide but if they do poll in the 30s on election day it probably spells trouble for them in government, especially when you consider SKS has always been a relatively unpopular LOTO and certainly isn't coming to power on a wave of goodwill.
Sorry. I like a lot of what you post but this is utter rubbish.
Talking of things that aren’t rubbish, I trust you have taken a look at the YouGov MRP for Newton Abbot, which is based upon combining the responses from its panel members in each seat with its national model. Labour is vying for third or fourth place with Reform.
Labour are obviously going to win the election and probably with a record landslide but if they do poll in the 30s on election day it probably spells trouble for them in government, especially when you consider SKS has always been a relatively unpopular LOTO and certainly isn't coming to power on a wave of goodwill.
The same shit is coming for Starmer, he's just 2-3 years behind the curve.
Counterpoint would be 2010 & 2015 and Cameron and Osborne. Lots of us who don't like Tory governments thought they were likely to be one and done given again, weren't overly popular and rode in on "Time for a change" and splits on the left as opposed to the right. The person whose Starmer's leadership ratings have most resembled over the years - Cameron's.
They never were particularly popular, but won another election, largely based on the idea that they'd had a tough inheritance and needed to be given the chance to "finish the job" of fixing things (though didn't fix much and did a lot that eventually turned out to be counterproductive).
Starmer and Reeves won't necessarily have to solve the problems they inherit. Just show progress to the public and a few wins for supporters. Low expectations may even help, as any surprises on the upside (even if they have little to do with decisions they've made) will be greeted more positively than might've been if people expected the world. Similarly, any crisis handled with a measure of competence will compare favourably to recent chaos.
They'll get some grace for doing the worst messes and low hanging fruit but, as with C & O the real danger will likely be in a second term when people bank whatever successes they have and start pulling in different directions and demanding the big stuff they want that agreed to initially defer.
But then if things haven't changed for the better in 10 years will deserve to go.
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Well, we have a few constituency polls for the Red Wall, such as the Hartlepool one, and they show the Labour vote well up on 2019.
Here's the thing: let's assume that Labour does no better in those seats than four and a half years ago (which looks very unlikely), and let's assume that 90% of the Conservative + all of the Brexit Party vote goes to Reform... well, you still end up with a large number of Labour gains.
Right now, the Left has got tactical voting, as they did in 1997. While the Right is suffering from Alliance 1983 disease.
First seat to declare - Ashington and Blyth followed by Houghton then Sunderland Central and Washington ?
Ooh. Is Blyth and Ashington going for first? It's my new seat. Will feel like a winner! Come on. Should give a steer for Reform strength/Tory weakness.
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Yet again, England sat back after scoring. They don't seem able to do anything else
They lack a killer instinct, the follow up punch, the knee in the jaw after the punch in the stomach
They will qualify simply because it is so hard to not qualify but they will go out in the quarters, ad always, and thus Southgate's pathetic loser-y leadership will come to a dismal close
I looked at the MRP averages vs the same pollsters normal polls (a sample of 5)
So, here are the national MRP averages and how they compare with the ordinary polls MRP averages: Con 24.4 (+3.0 compared with normal polls) Lab 42.0 (+1.6) LD 11.2 (0) SNP 3.2 (+0.2) Grn 5.6 (-0.6) Ref 12.0 (-2.0) Others Inc PC 1.6 (-2.2)
There's a small discrepancy because Survation quote UK not GB on their normal polls, but even allowing for that it looks like there is about a 4-5% transfer of votes from challenger parties to incumbent parties overall inherent in the MRP process.
How do you get Reform on just 14% with normal polls?
Just an average of 5 polls including an aged 9% from IPSOS (but their MRP itself isn't the newest). I'm betting their next poll won't be 9%.
I have the overall 18 pollster (18!) average for Reform as 16%.
Are you including polls that are more than about 10 days old? Because I think that's a bit dodgy during an election campaign.
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Well, we have a few constituency polls for the Red Wall, such as the Hartlepool one, and they show the Labour vote well up on 2019.
Here's the thing: let's assume that Labour does no better in those seats than four and a half years ago (which looks very unlikely), and let's assume that 90% of the Conservative + all of the Brexit Party vote goes to Reform... well, you still end up with a large number of Labour gains.
Right now, the Left has got tactical voting, as they did in 1997. While the Right is suffering from Alliance 1983 disease.
Still amazes me that the Tories won places like Blyth in the first place.
O/T: How does the curtis exit poll deal with postal votes?
"What about postal voting?
People who vote by post are not included in exit polls. This is potentially a source of bias, if the pattern of vote-changing among postal voters differs appreciably from the vote-changing behaviour of those who use a polling station. This does not seem to have been a major problem yet for prediction from exit polls, but if registration to vote by post continues to increase it could become so. For a bit more detail on how postal voting is accounted for, see Sec 2.2 of Curtice and Firth (2008)."
The problem of selecting polling locations for an exit poll in Britain is long standing, but in 2005 a new problem presented a potentially more fundamental challenge. Exit polls can of course only acquire information from those who actually attend a polling station to vote. If a significant proportion do not vote in person but rather vote, say, by post, then it may no longer be the case that those who vote in person are representative of all those who vote at that station."
IF there any basic similarity re: postal voting in UK and absentee voting in USA, then might assume that in dear Old Blighty, the average gone-postal voter is older than non-postals.
In WA State, where every election is all-vote-by-mail, albeit with many voters returning their ballots via drop boxes rather than by USPS, those who return their ballots EARLY in the process are definitely older than those who wait until just before Election Day.
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Absolutely nowt is going on in Blyth and Ashington, election wise. But all pollsters are picking up big swings to Labour in the Northeast. Important to note. Blyth Valley, which went Tory last time does not exist. B+A consists of the Labour half of BV, and the Labour half of Wansbeck (which doesn't exist either).
🔺 EXCLUSIVE: The SNP is being investigated by parliamentary authorities over the alleged inappropriate use of public money to fund the party’s general election campaign
It follows claims that stamps paid for by expenses have been passed to SNP candidates to distribute leaflets to constituents
The complaint, which appears to have been made by an SNP staff member, was sent to Alison Johnstone, Holyrood’s presiding officer, alongside a screenshot of an internal discussion between some of the party’s office managers
The leaked screenshot depicts a snapshot of a conversation of a WhatsApp group, called “Office Manager Chat”, which appears to have a timer for messages to be automatically deleted
One individual, who is named as “Paul” in the conversation, posted a message that read: “Guys, the new stamps. Can they be traced?”
Asked by a staff member who works in the office of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, whether he was referring to “who purchased them and what they’re being used for”, the person who wrote the first message responded: “Can they be traced back to who purchased them?”
A member of SNP deputy leader Keith Brown’s office said she had “asked Rab in the mailroom and he said no”
Another staff member said they were not aware of the stamps being traceable. Someone from the office of Shirley-Anne Somerville, the social justice secretary, replied: “If they can then a few people may be up in front of corporate body…”
Holyrood’s corporate body is a small cross-party group that oversees the running of the parliament and the enforcement of rules, including around expenses
MSPs are allowed to spend up to £5,500 a year on postage and stationery. The parliament’s rules state that they “must be used only for parliamentary duties and must not be used for any other purpose, including party political purposes”
It is understood that Holyrood officials are examining the claims and are likely to question those linked to the allegations
I realise it falls under "nice problem to have" but a mahoosive Labour majority is going to create an opposition problem which will be awkward even for SKS Fans.
If the official opposition is 100 Tories then it is, probably, not the brightest and best of them. And they're not going to be doing a lot of opposing, at least for the first two years while they're in full-on recrimination mode with and choosing a new leader.
Or if the official opposition is 60 LibDems then it's going to be genuinely difficult to fill all the shadow minister posts, especially given that most of them will have no experience of being an MP.
Both of these sound good for Labour, but the media - understandably - seeks out conflict. And if the opposition isn't generating those stories, reporters are going to start looking for conflict within Labour. (Gotta fill those pages somehow.) All of a sudden, Jared O'Trotsky, the incompletely vetted surprise Labour MP for Lower Stinchcombe on Thames, has a megaphone he wasn't expecting.
I'm sure Sue Gray has been wargaming this for weeks, but Labour on 500 seats is not an easy situation for anyone.
How many Labour coop MPs are there? Genuinely don’t know but might it be more than 100?
26 MPs in Westminster 11 Members of Scottish Parliament 16 Welsh Parliament Members 5 Metro Mayors
Labour are obviously going to win the election and probably with a record landslide but if they do poll in the 30s on election day it probably spells trouble for them in government, especially when you consider SKS has always been a relatively unpopular LOTO and certainly isn't coming to power on a wave of goodwill.
The same shit is coming for Starmer, he's just 2-3 years behind the curve.
As well as having the largest gains, given his lack of connection with the elctorate, Starmer could also hold the record for the biggest losses come the next election.
You Righties really are like spoilt kids, Lost, stomping your feet, crying life the electoral system isn't fair, believing in fairy tales. Mummy tells you that one day the bogeyman will take away nasty Mr Starmer and the nightmare will be over. Stick the dummy in and go back to sleep.
England will be lucky to scrape a draw here, but I suspect a defeat
2-1
You hate this country
That doesn't make sense. England is my favourite place in the world, but I'm not blind to its faults. And an underachieving football team staffed by some.of the least likeable people in the country is one of them. It's no more unpatriotic to complain about the football team than to complain about the trains.
🔺 EXCLUSIVE: The SNP is being investigated by parliamentary authorities over the alleged inappropriate use of public money to fund the party’s general election campaign
It follows claims that stamps paid for by expenses have been passed to SNP candidates to distribute leaflets to constituents
The complaint, which appears to have been made by an SNP staff member, was sent to Alison Johnstone, Holyrood’s presiding officer, alongside a screenshot of an internal discussion between some of the party’s office managers
The leaked screenshot depicts a snapshot of a conversation of a WhatsApp group, called “Office Manager Chat”, which appears to have a timer for messages to be automatically deleted
One individual, who is named as “Paul” in the conversation, posted a message that read: “Guys, the new stamps. Can they be traced?”
Asked by a staff member who works in the office of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, whether he was referring to “who purchased them and what they’re being used for”, the person who wrote the first message responded: “Can they be traced back to who purchased them?”
A member of SNP deputy leader Keith Brown’s office said she had “asked Rab in the mailroom and he said no”
Another staff member said they were not aware of the stamps being traceable. Someone from the office of Shirley-Anne Somerville, the social justice secretary, replied: “If they can then a few people may be up in front of corporate body…”
Holyrood’s corporate body is a small cross-party group that oversees the running of the parliament and the enforcement of rules, including around expenses
MSPs are allowed to spend up to £5,500 a year on postage and stationery. The parliament’s rules state that they “must be used only for parliamentary duties and must not be used for any other purpose, including party political purposes”
It is understood that Holyrood officials are examining the claims and are likely to question those linked to the allegations
With all the focus on the Faragists trying to do a reverse takeover of the Tories after the election, maybe we are overlooking the possibility of the Cameroons trying to do a reverse takeover of the Lib Dems.
As long as we get the Leftier Lib Dems doing a reverse takeover of Labour and the Corbynites doing a reverse takeover of Reform so a nice circular movement of half of each party one step to the left leaving Reform as some sort of new-fangled nationalist but socialist party - just might work.
🔺 EXCLUSIVE: The SNP is being investigated by parliamentary authorities over the alleged inappropriate use of public money to fund the party’s general election campaign
One individual, who is named as “Paul” in the conversation, posted a message that read: “Guys, the new stamps. Can they be traced?”
The stupidity amazes me. You might as well write I am cheating in six foot high red letters on Stonehenge and sign it with your full address as write it on whatsapp (or any other electric media).
Mind you. Having gone from constant phones ringing in an office to rare phones ringing and a deluge of emails , half of them unnecessary cc's, one advantage is that having emailed, the bu**ers cant deny saying it like they could with a phone call.
🔺 EXCLUSIVE: The SNP is being investigated by parliamentary authorities over the alleged inappropriate use of public money to fund the party’s general election campaign
It follows claims that stamps paid for by expenses have been passed to SNP candidates to distribute leaflets to constituents
The complaint, which appears to have been made by an SNP staff member, was sent to Alison Johnstone, Holyrood’s presiding officer, alongside a screenshot of an internal discussion between some of the party’s office managers
The leaked screenshot depicts a snapshot of a conversation of a WhatsApp group, called “Office Manager Chat”, which appears to have a timer for messages to be automatically deleted
One individual, who is named as “Paul” in the conversation, posted a message that read: “Guys, the new stamps. Can they be traced?”
Asked by a staff member who works in the office of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, whether he was referring to “who purchased them and what they’re being used for”, the person who wrote the first message responded: “Can they be traced back to who purchased them?”
A member of SNP deputy leader Keith Brown’s office said she had “asked Rab in the mailroom and he said no”
Another staff member said they were not aware of the stamps being traceable. Someone from the office of Shirley-Anne Somerville, the social justice secretary, replied: “If they can then a few people may be up in front of corporate body…”
Holyrood’s corporate body is a small cross-party group that oversees the running of the parliament and the enforcement of rules, including around expenses
MSPs are allowed to spend up to £5,500 a year on postage and stationery. The parliament’s rules state that they “must be used only for parliamentary duties and must not be used for any other purpose, including party political purposes”
It is understood that Holyrood officials are examining the claims and are likely to question those linked to the allegations
I’m a lifelong fan of SKS and it pains me to say this, any other leader would be 20 points ahead of the worst government of all time, he simply must go!
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Absolutely nowt is going on in Blyth and Ashington, election wise. But all pollsters are picking up big swings to Labour in the Northeast. Important to note. Blyth Valley, which went Tory last time does not exist. B+A consists of the Labour half of BV, and the Labour half of Wansbeck (which doesn't exist either).
It's not just the Tory activists being pulled back to the safest of seats. I know that Lab have called for canvassing in Rutland and Stamford which on some measures is the 10th safest Tory seat in the country.
@Sandpit might well have 10 000 reasons to be nervous, but to me it seems a bit out of reach for Labour. I think they are deliberately stretching the invisible Tory machine.
Imagine that. You have Rice, Trent, foden, Kane, Bellingham all in the same 10 metre share area and there is no space and no options to play out. Kane needs to drop the hero complex and stay up as the outlet. Foden is wasted and they need Gordon on the wing stretching it and running at pace. I’m so gutted Southgate won’t be going to Man Utd after this.
Presumably betting on himself for a future event in the hands of the voters, rather than an event in which he was in the room when the outcome was decided?
It never ceases to amaze that these guys can score hat tricks, run at defences and defend for their lives in the Premier League, yet put them in an England shirt and they lose all their talents.
It never ceases to amaze that these guys can score hat tricks, run at defences and defend for their lives in the Premier League, yet put them in an England shirt and they lose all their talents.
Have they really defaced the Brandenburg Gate with a giant goalpost?
Last time I was there it had cars driving through it and if you walked to Potsdammer Platz you could pick up wall chippings off the road where the wall that ran down the middle of it had been knocked down but they hadn't got round to resurfacing it yet.
Potsdamer Platz waz like a grass field with a somewhat uneven and bendy road tarmaced from one side to the other.
Sky told by a gambling commission source that more names likely to be released over betting but aside from the protection officer the police are not at this stage involved
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Well, we have a few constituency polls for the Red Wall, such as the Hartlepool one, and they show the Labour vote well up on 2019.
Here's the thing: let's assume that Labour does no better in those seats than four and a half years ago (which looks very unlikely), and let's assume that 90% of the Conservative + all of the Brexit Party vote goes to Reform... well, you still end up with a large number of Labour gains.
Right now, the Left has got tactical voting, as they did in 1997. While the Right is suffering from Alliance 1983 disease.
Still amazes me that the Tories won places like Blyth in the first place.
Blyth today is very different to Blyth 30 years ago. Lots of new private houses. But still - I agree.
It never ceases to amaze that these guys can score hat tricks, run at defences and defend for their lives in the Premier League, yet put them in an England shirt and they lose all their talents.
Because the manager isn’t up to it
It's not just Southgate though, it is always a tragedy when England score first as they then try to defend a one goal advantage for the rest of the game rather than seek a second.
Or maybe I should say I PERSONALLY find it a little boring, now (tho this election is fun)
You have one life, it's a wonderful world out there, I am paid to explore it, I love it
For sure, travel usually broadens the mind.
Why you are so immune, remains a mystery.
Maybe because wandering around an airport looking for some driver on minimum wage holding up a piece of cardboard with “Sean Twat” written on it isn’t really proper travel.
Fact remains, most PB’ers can see that your desire to become a global nomad and escape your homeland has very little to do with our weather.
Finally the BBC panel turns on Southgate. After about a decade
It's his teams, his coaching, his sit-back-on-the lead shit
I have absolutely no idea why we stick with Southgate. Tactically inept. Boring.
Just awful
Because he's a "fundamentally decent guy" and he used to wear a waistcoat and taking the knee and all that shite
I mean, he probably is a lovely chap. He also earns several trillion quid. As soon as they re-appointed him after the World Cup I knew we had no chance at the euros, despite having Bellingham and Kane!!!!
Fack it. I'm off to the Thames for a riverside pint in the lovely sun
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Absolutely nowt is going on in Blyth and Ashington, election wise. But all pollsters are picking up big swings to Labour in the Northeast. Important to note. Blyth Valley, which went Tory last time does not exist. B+A consists of the Labour half of BV, and the Labour half of Wansbeck (which doesn't exist either).
It's not just the Tory activists being pulled back to the safest of seats. I know that Lab have called for canvassing in Rutland and Stamford which on some measures is the 10th safest story seat in the country.
@Sandpit might well have 10 000 reasons to be nervous, but to me it seems a bit out of reach for Labour. I think they are deliberately stretching the invisible Tory machine.
Labour? Rutland & Stamford?!
In 10+ years of living in Rutland I only remember seeing a Labour poster in a window once. And that was the vicar.
Finally the BBC panel turns on Southgate. After about a decade
It's his teams, his coaching, his sit-back-on-the lead shit
I have absolutely no idea why we stick with Southgate. Tactically inept. Boring.
Just awful
Because he's a "fundamentally decent guy" and he used to wear a waistcoat and taking the knee and all that shite
I mean, he probably is a lovely chap. He also earns several trillion quid. As soon as they re-appointed him after the World Cup I knew we had no chance at the euros, despite having Bellingham and Kane!!!!
Fack it. I'm off to the Thames for a riverside pint in the lovely sun
Do we have any data on how "lumpy" the Reform vote is?
10-20% of the vote could get them anywhere from 0-70 seats depending on this factor.
Be a massive shame if it was all in the red wall/Midlands and Labour massively underachieve
That is an interesting possibility. If Labour get 33-35%, Libdems win a batch of Tory southern seats, Reform win a batch of Redwall seats and a few brexity Labour ones in places like Sunderland, plus SNP do a bit better than expected, you could end up with a hung parliament.
I think that's extremely unlikely.
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Agree unlikely, but if Labour keep dropping to the mid 30s, might be worth a punt.
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
Absolutely nowt is going on in Blyth and Ashington, election wise. But all pollsters are picking up big swings to Labour in the Northeast. Important to note. Blyth Valley, which went Tory last time does not exist. B+A consists of the Labour half of BV, and the Labour half of Wansbeck (which doesn't exist either).
It's not just the Tory activists being pulled back to the safest of seats. I know that Lab have called for canvassing in Rutland and Stamford which on some measures is the 10th safest Tory seat in the country.
@Sandpit might well have 10 000 reasons to be nervous, but to me it seems a bit out of reach for Labour. I think they are deliberately stretching the invisible Tory machine.
Smart move by Starmer. Less winnable seats have local parties not infested by momentotrots so choose good candidates quite often as Mid Beds did with Alistair Strathern.
The more of these Starmer can get elected the more he can ignore the residual far left loons who get elected in safe seats.
Finally the BBC panel turns on Southgate. After about a decade
It's his teams, his coaching, his sit-back-on-the lead shit
I have absolutely no idea why we stick with Southgate. Tactically inept. Boring.
Just awful
Because he's a "fundamentally decent guy" and he used to wear a waistcoat and taking the knee and all that shite
I mean, he probably is a lovely chap. He also earns several trillion quid. As soon as they re-appointed him after the World Cup I knew we had no chance at the euros, despite having Bellingham and Kane!!!!
Fack it. I'm off to the Thames for a riverside pint in the lovely sun
The Knee is the biggest black mark against Southgate.
Disgrace he got sucked into that cultural Marxism.
I looked at the MRP averages vs the same pollsters normal polls (a sample of 5)
So, here are the national MRP averages and how they compare with the ordinary polls MRP averages: Con 24.4 (+3.0 compared with normal polls) Lab 42.0 (+1.6) LD 11.2 (0) SNP 3.2 (+0.2) Grn 5.6 (-0.6) Ref 12.0 (-2.0) Others Inc PC 1.6 (-2.2)
There's a small discrepancy because Survation quote UK not GB on their normal polls, but even allowing for that it looks like there is about a 4-5% transfer of votes from challenger parties to incumbent parties overall inherent in the MRP process.
How do you get Reform on just 14% with normal polls?
Just an average of 5 polls including an aged 9% from IPSOS (but their MRP itself isn't the newest). I'm betting their next poll won't be 9%.
I have the overall 18 pollster (18!) average for Reform as 16%.
Are you including polls that are more than about 10 days old? Because I think that's a bit dodgy during an election campaign.
MRPs are rarer, and I've excluded Find Out Now who haven't run a traditional poll for comparison. In fact without IPSOS, whose MRP rated Reform 3 points higher than their traditional poll, the MRP effect in giving a lower Reform value would be even greater.
Comments
The biggest impact of splitting the right wing vote between the Conservatives and Reform is more Labour seats.
Honestly, my ZX Spectrum back in 1981 could do better tweets than Rishi Sunak's TwiX account
If the official opposition is 100 Tories then it is, probably, not the brightest and best of them. And they're not going to be doing a lot of opposing, at least for the first two years while they're in full-on recrimination mode with and choosing a new leader.
Or if the official opposition is 60 LibDems then it's going to be genuinely difficult to fill all the shadow minister posts, especially given that most of them will have no experience of being an MP.
Both of these sound good for Labour, but the media - understandably - seeks out conflict. And if the opposition isn't generating those stories, reporters are going to start looking for conflict within Labour. (Gotta fill those pages somehow.) All of a sudden, Jared O'Trotsky, the incompletely vetted surprise Labour MP for Lower Stinchcombe on Thames, has a megaphone he wasn't expecting.
I'm sure Sue Gray has been wargaming this for weeks, but Labour on 500 seats is not an easy situation for anyone.
I have the overall 18 pollster (18!) average for Reform as 16%.
Depending on how well they do vis-a-vis the LDs and SNP, there might be a temptation ...
Would be useful to know what is going on in places like Blyth and Sunderland. Not much more to go on at the moment than a tweet from Galloway, which is not much to go on.
They never were particularly popular, but won another election, largely based on the idea that they'd had a tough inheritance and needed to be given the chance to "finish the job" of fixing things (though didn't fix much and did a lot that eventually turned out to be counterproductive).
Starmer and Reeves won't necessarily have to solve the problems they inherit. Just show progress to the public and a few wins for supporters. Low expectations may even help, as any surprises on the upside (even if they have little to do with decisions they've made) will be greeted more positively than might've been if people expected the world. Similarly, any crisis handled with a measure of competence will compare favourably to recent chaos.
They'll get some grace for doing the worst messes and low hanging fruit but, as with C & O the real danger will likely be in a second term when people bank whatever successes they have and start pulling in different directions and demanding the big stuff they want that agreed to initially defer.
But then if things haven't changed for the better in 10 years will deserve to go.
Here's the thing: let's assume that Labour does no better in those seats than four and a half years ago (which looks very unlikely), and let's assume that 90% of the Conservative + all of the Brexit Party vote goes to Reform... well, you still end up with a large number of Labour gains.
Right now, the Left has got tactical voting, as they did in 1997. While the Right is suffering from Alliance 1983 disease.
2-1
So tedious
It's my new seat. Will feel like a winner! Come on.
Should give a steer for Reform strength/Tory weakness.
They lack a killer instinct, the follow up punch, the knee in the jaw after the punch in the stomach
They will qualify simply because it is so hard to not qualify but they will go out in the quarters, ad always, and thus Southgate's pathetic loser-y leadership will come to a dismal close
In WA State, where every election is all-vote-by-mail, albeit with many voters returning their ballots via drop boxes rather than by USPS, those who return their ballots EARLY in the process are definitely older than those who wait until just before Election Day.
But all pollsters are picking up big swings to Labour in the Northeast.
Important to note. Blyth Valley, which went Tory last time does not exist. B+A consists of the Labour half of BV, and the Labour half of Wansbeck (which doesn't exist either).
🔺 EXCLUSIVE: The SNP is being investigated by parliamentary authorities over the alleged inappropriate use of public money to fund the party’s general election campaign
It follows claims that stamps paid for by expenses have been passed to SNP candidates to distribute leaflets to constituents
The complaint, which appears to have been made by an SNP staff member, was sent to Alison Johnstone, Holyrood’s presiding officer, alongside a screenshot of an internal discussion between some of the party’s office managers
The leaked screenshot depicts a snapshot of a conversation of a WhatsApp group, called “Office Manager Chat”, which appears to have a timer for messages to be automatically deleted
One individual, who is named as “Paul” in the conversation, posted a message that read: “Guys, the new stamps. Can they be traced?”
Asked by a staff member who works in the office of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, whether he was referring to “who purchased them and what they’re being used for”, the person who wrote the first message responded: “Can they be traced back to who purchased them?”
A member of SNP deputy leader Keith Brown’s office said she had “asked Rab in the mailroom and he said no”
Another staff member said they were not aware of the stamps being traceable. Someone from the office of Shirley-Anne Somerville, the social justice secretary, replied: “If they can then a few people may be up in front of corporate body…”
Holyrood’s corporate body is a small cross-party group that oversees the running of the parliament and the enforcement of rules, including around expenses
MSPs are allowed to spend up to £5,500 a year on postage and stationery. The parliament’s rules state that they “must be used only for parliamentary duties and must not be used for any other purpose, including party political purposes”
It is understood that Holyrood officials are examining the claims and are likely to question those linked to the allegations
https://x.com/timesscotland/status/1803829013040771126
11 Members of Scottish Parliament
16 Welsh Parliament Members
5 Metro Mayors
and
900+ Councillors across the UK
https://party.coop/about/
lifethe electoral system isn't fair, believing in fairy tales. Mummy tells you that one day the bogeyman will take away nasty Mr Starmer and the nightmare will be over. Stick the dummy in and go back to sleep.It's no more unpatriotic to complain about the football team than to complain about the trains.
The future looks black the future is Reform, hell
It hasn't escaped to go and live with @RochdalePioneers by any chance?
I'll take that.
2019: Farage in StarSports: https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/brexit-party-leader-nigel-farage-walks-past-a-screen-in-a-news-photo/1136410507
Partly it's boredom. Britain is..... uh, ah, sorry - boring?
Or maybe I should say I PERSONALLY find it a little boring, now (tho this election is fun)
You have one life, it's a wonderful world out there, I am paid to explore it, I love it
Mind you. Having gone from constant phones ringing in an office to rare phones ringing and a deluge of emails , half of them unnecessary cc's, one advantage is that having emailed, the bu**ers cant deny saying it like they could with a phone call.
Just need for Nicola Sturgeon to be charged in the next fortnight and we'll know that genie is real.
It's his teams, his coaching, his sit-back-on-the lead shit
It is the complete opposite. Southgate has taken a group of outstanding individuals and made an average team.
EVERY SINGLE 3 LIONS FAN KNOWS THIS, YOU MORON.
I’m a lifelong fan of SKS and it pains me to say this, any other leader would be 20 points ahead of the worst government of all time, he simply must go!
@Sandpit might well have 10 000 reasons to be nervous, but to me it seems a bit out of reach for Labour. I think they are deliberately stretching the invisible Tory machine.
Unweighted. Ergo, nonsense.
Just awful
The other, ie today's, is a traditional VI poll using the adjustments in line with the MRP assumptions.
Last time I was there it had cars driving through it and if you walked to Potsdammer Platz you could pick up wall chippings off the road where the wall that ran down the middle of it had been knocked down but they hadn't got round to resurfacing it yet.
Potsdamer Platz waz like a grass field with a somewhat uneven and bendy road tarmaced from one side to the other.
Another world.
At the next World Cup, that line “30 years of hurt” will be 30 years old.
Southgate that is not SKS
But still - I agree.
Why you are so immune, remains a mystery.
Maybe because wandering around an airport looking for some driver on minimum wage holding up a piece of cardboard with “Sean Twat” written on it isn’t really proper travel.
Fact remains, most PB’ers can see that your desire to become a global nomad and escape your homeland has very little to do with our weather.
I mean, he probably is a lovely chap. He also earns several trillion quid. As soon as they re-appointed him after the World Cup I knew we had no chance at the euros, despite having Bellingham and Kane!!!!
Fack it. I'm off to the Thames for a riverside pint in the lovely sun
In 10+ years of living in Rutland I only remember seeing a Labour poster in a window once. And that was the vicar.
The more of these Starmer can get elected the more he can ignore the residual far left loons who get elected in safe seats.
Looking good for Labour right now
Lab 42%
Con 19%
Ref 19%
LibDem 9%
Green 7%
SNP 3%
Sample 1627, fieldwork 18-19 June
I call it capitalism betting.
Disgrace he got sucked into that cultural Marxism.