Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Clacton is undoubtedly their best seat so it's strange Tice isn't standing there. Maybe because there was always an idea that Farage might slip in there.
Yes, and he will do the media rounds pretending that he’s answering an overwhelming number of calls to stand and playing the patriotic duty card. The MSM will swallow the bullshit wholesale and the GB News anchors will line up to metaphorically fellate him. Depressing and nauseating in equal measure.
Oh stop whining: Farage is playing politics. Its what politicians do. He’s just better at it than most
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Clacton is undoubtedly their best seat so it's strange Tice isn't standing there. Maybe because there was always an idea that Farage might slip in there.
Yes, and he will do the media rounds pretending that he’s answering an overwhelming number of calls to stand and playing the patriotic duty card. The MSM will swallow the bullshit wholesale and the GB News anchors will line up to metaphorically fellate him. Depressing and nauseating in equal measure.
I think the timing is to do with Reform's omittance from the various debates. Make a massive fuss in the media. Deep state etc etc
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Clacton is undoubtedly their best seat so it's strange Tice isn't standing there. Maybe because there was always an idea that Farage might slip in there.
Yes, and he will do the media rounds pretending that he’s answering an overwhelming number of calls to stand and playing the patriotic duty card. The MSM will swallow the bullshit wholesale and the GB News anchors will line up to metaphorically fellate him. Depressing and nauseating in equal measure.
Oh stop whining: Farage is playing politics. Its what politicians do. He’s just better at it than most
LOL Is that why he failed SEVEN times to get elected to Westminster?
It's not normally the case in General Elections that Farage/Brexit/UKIP or whoever has a sniff of a seat BUT I think Farage could have better than half a chance in Clacton so abysmal is the Conservative position. The circus that surrounds him would effectively turn it into a by-election and the demographics are nigh on perfect for Reform.
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Clacton is undoubtedly their best seat so it's strange Tice isn't standing there. Maybe because there was always an idea that Farage might slip in there.
Yes, and he will do the media rounds pretending that he’s answering an overwhelming number of calls to stand and playing the patriotic duty card. The MSM will swallow the bullshit wholesale and the GB News anchors will line up to metaphorically fellate him. Depressing and nauseating in equal measure.
Oh stop whining: Farage is playing politics. Its what politicians do. He’s just better at it than most
He is so good at it that he has never been elected as an MP
Both Starmer and Sunak have been to Bury North, why even bother??
It's a nonsense, but isn't the thinking that it'd look complacent/triumphant from Starmer if he went to the ACTUAL likely seats and defeatist/panic stricken from Rishi ?
So we'll probably get plenty of visits to stone cold Labour gains.
I will be making an Emergency General Election announcement at 4pm today.
The US presidential election is technically a general election. Would be even worse than the poll rampers.
"My good friend Donald has unfortunately had to stand down due to legal persecution and has nominated me to run in his place. Also, the United States will be annexing the UK with immediate effect to enable me to stand as a natural born US citizen."
Badenoch is also Minister for Women and Equalities. Thanks once again for highlighting Labour’s complacency and indifference towards the rights of half the electorate. Quote
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret 2h I’m sure the world of trade and business will take note that the actual Secretary of State for trade and business has decided that the biggest issue on her agenda on her first big election outing is the weaponisation of trans rights. Anyone might be tempted to think @KemiBadenoch has less interest in the general election than the internal ideological shitshow likely to follow it.
If you want to understand just how manufactured the transgender culture war is, less than 2 years ago Kemi Badenoch was celebrating the fact that it was becoming easier to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate
Technically easier, because it could be done online - no reduction in the legal requirements, which is what ScotGov proposed, ignoring all the issues that could create.
Not quite the gotcha, is it?
Just to be clear: if you’re on the left & you’re dismissing an Equality Act amendment to protect women’s rights you don’t understand as hateful on the basis of who’s proposing it you’re as guilty as anyone of culture wars rhetoric in a sensitive debate about a conflict of rights.
Another dreadful Tory no doubt. #checks notes# leader writer for the Observer
Making it practically easier to get a GRC seems to go against the whole "we know what a woman is and she can't have a penis", when the point of a GRC is that some people with a penis can get legal recognition as being a woman.
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
Redfield ramping their poll at 3pm, opinium have started the ramp trend for this GE. Apparently 'we won't want to miss this one!!' Tories minus 2 or some such.
I don't think you can actually poll a minus percentage, Woolie, but maybe Rishi intends to give it a go.
I think after today's polling rush they are going to realise just how buggered they are
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Well Clacton is the only contituency to ever elect a UKIP MP at a general election, Douglas Carswell in 2015.
If Nigel wants to break his Parliamentary duck, it’s as good a place as any to try.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
Many who may have been on the fence are now supporting it due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .
Whilst I think there is a reasonable argument to be made that Russia would have been less likely to invade Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes - I still don't see why the UK needs nukes when we clearly fall under Nato and are protected by enough nukes to destroy the entire planet multiple times over with the US. If the US left Nato and the UK didn't believe the US hegemon continued to include using their nuclear deterrent if we were threatened, having nukes of are own is not the number one problem...
As we enter week 3 of the general election campaign, here's what the Tories are still not talking about - the cost of living, the NHS, public services, housing, transport, defence, sewage in our rives and seas ...
They have nothing to say on them after 14 years in power.
So far, I haven't seen Labour say anything on them either, but that may just be because I've been busy.
The Liberal Democrats have been talking about sewage and doing press stunts.
This campaign really has been depressing for those wanting solutions to our problems.
Labour had a big NHS day, but it was somewhat overshadowed by the Diane Abbott farrago. They're banging on about defence today.
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Clacton is undoubtedly their best seat so it's strange Tice isn't standing there. Maybe because there was always an idea that Farage might slip in there.
Yes, and he will do the media rounds pretending that he’s answering an overwhelming number of calls to stand and playing the patriotic duty card. The MSM will swallow the bullshit wholesale and the GB News anchors will line up to metaphorically fellate him. Depressing and nauseating in equal measure.
Oh stop whining: Farage is playing politics. Its what politicians do. He’s just better at it than most
LOL Is that why he failed SEVEN times to get elected to Westminster?
Farage would have waltzed into Parliament if it wasn't for FPTP. So would a significant number of crazed Greens.
Once upon a time, you might have suggested that FPTP protected us from the loonies, but...
Redfield ramping their poll at 3pm, opinium have started the ramp trend for this GE. Apparently 'we won't want to miss this one!!' Tories minus 2 or some such.
I don't think you can actually poll a minus percentage, Woolie, but maybe Rishi intends to give it a go.
I think after today's polling rush they are going to realise just how buggered they are
Their private polling must be telling them that.
Yes but it was probably telling them that in 1997 but the exit poll and results still surprised them.
Redfield ramping their poll at 3pm, opinium have started the ramp trend for this GE. Apparently 'we won't want to miss this one!!' Tories minus 2 or some such.
I don't think you can actually poll a minus percentage, Woolie, but maybe Rishi intends to give it a go.
I think after today's polling rush they are going to realise just how buggered they are
Their private polling must be telling them that.
Their private polling is just a turd with a laughing clown head stuck in it I think
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I love grapefruit juice and marmalade, but I do love bitter and sour tastes.
I make my own marmalade and make it as bitter as possible. I try and get some caramelisation when cooking it by burning the bottom of the pan. Mine is pretty dark compared to the norm.
No shop marmalade is as good as homemade. same goes for pickled onions. I fill the vinegar with chills, peppercorns and coriander seeds and get a real punch.
The other thing homemade that beats shop bought is bread. I make most of my own bread. Love it. I could live on bread.
Yes, home made bread... We more or less stopped shop buying after we got a bread maker (maybe that's cheating, but hey, we're busy and lazy). Have never made marmalade, though we've made a number of jams. Will have to add it to the list. I remember by gran making marmalade in a big old copper pan on an old range... and the results😋
Grapefruit has been tarnished by the medical evidence about enzymes, even among the unmedicated because why take a risk about vitamin absorption? But I also think decades of bad breakfast buffet juices took their toll: not fresh, reused.
Reused?
"All of out grapefruit juice has been passed by the management"
Many who may have been on the fence are now supporting it due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .
Whilst I think there is a reasonable argument to be made that Russia would have been less likely to invade Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes - I still don't see why the UK needs nukes when we clearly fall under Nato and are protected by enough nukes to destroy the entire planet multiple times over with the US. If the US left Nato and the UK didn't believe the US hegemon continued to include using their nuclear deterrent if we were threatened, having nukes of are own is not the number one problem...
You're going to have to clarify that last sentence because it makes no sense.
I will be making an Emergency General Election announcement at 4pm today.
The US presidential election is technically a general election. Would be even worse than the poll rampers.
"My good friend Donald has unfortunately had to stand down due to legal persecution and has nominated me to run in his place. Also, the United States will be annexing the UK with immediate effect to enable me to stand as a natural born US citizen."
Nigel Fucking Farage previously said he would not stand in the UK Genny Lec as the US election was more important
Now that Donny Boy has been convicted, I guess his outlook has changed...
Daft question perhaps, but nowadays is there any local effect from visiting a parliamentary constituency if you are the leader of a big party? I can see the case for the smaller parties: reminding people that you are a viable choice in somewhere like Westmorland.
As we enter week 3 of the general election campaign, here's what the Tories are still not talking about - the cost of living, the NHS, public services, housing, transport, defence, sewage in our rives and seas ...
They have nothing to say on them after 14 years in power.
So far, I haven't seen Labour say anything on them either, but that may just be because I've been busy.
The Liberal Democrats have been talking about sewage and doing press stunts.
This campaign really has been depressing for those wanting solutions to our problems.
Labour had a big NHS day, but it was somewhat overshadowed by the Diane Abbott farrago. They're banging on about defence today.
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Well Clacton is the only contituency to ever elect a UKIP MP at a general election, Douglas Carswell in 2015.
If Nigel wants to break his Parliamentary duck, it’s as good a place as any to try.
Currently forecast to go Labour (51% vs 48% Conservatives). Probably Farage vs Labour if he gets the bandwagon rolling there. Mind you he might not go for it, he's got a history of marching to the top of the hill...
I will be making an Emergency General Election announcement at 4pm today.
The US presidential election is technically a general election. Would be even worse than the poll rampers.
"My good friend Donald has unfortunately had to stand down due to legal persecution and has nominated me to run in his place. Also, the United States will be annexing the UK with immediate effect to enable me to stand as a natural born US citizen."
Nigel Fucking Farage previously said he would not stand in the UK Genny Lec as the US election was more important
Now that Donny Boy has been convicted, I guess his outlook has changed...
I doubt it, he’s a grifter and he’s just spotted a lucrative means of expanding the grift.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
He isn’t going to save* the Tories, surely? That would leave him with significant egg on his face.
Many who may have been on the fence are now supporting it due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .
Whilst I think there is a reasonable argument to be made that Russia would have been less likely to invade Ukraine if Ukraine had nukes - I still don't see why the UK needs nukes when we clearly fall under Nato and are protected by enough nukes to destroy the entire planet multiple times over with the US. If the US left Nato and the UK didn't believe the US hegemon continued to include using their nuclear deterrent if we were threatened, having nukes of are own is not the number one problem...
Don't you also support Houthis killing innocent seamen?
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Well Clacton is the only contituency to ever elect a UKIP MP at a general election, Douglas Carswell in 2015.
If Nigel wants to break his Parliamentary duck, it’s as good a place as any to try.
The Fukkers don't have a candidate in Hartlegrad...
He'll up against Fash Slag but UKIP probably only have 20 quid in campaign funds.
According to Politico this morning, Kemi Badenoch "will play a more active role in the Conservative campaign" from now on.
But a senior Tory source tells HuffPost UK: "She needs to be locked in a fridge away from normal people."
The appeal of Bad Enoch is lost on me and, it seems, most of the public. She is a wooden, uninspiring performer and was entirely mute as Biz Sec for months/years. Can someone explain what she has that some see in her?
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
He isn’t going to save* the Tories, surely? That would leave him with significant egg on his face.
*in his mind, anyway
This is probably the best chance in the eyes of Reform to do serious damage to the Tories . I can’t see Farage agreeing a pact with them.
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I love grapefruit juice and marmalade, but I do love bitter and sour tastes.
I make my own marmalade and make it as bitter as possible. I try and get some caramelisation when cooking it by burning the bottom of the pan. Mine is pretty dark compared to the norm.
No shop marmalade is as good as homemade. same goes for pickled onions. I fill the vinegar with chills, peppercorns and coriander seeds and get a real punch.
The other thing homemade that beats shop bought is bread. I make most of my own bread. Love it. I could live on bread.
Yes, home made bread... We more or less stopped shop buying after we got a bread maker (maybe that's cheating, but hey, we're busy and lazy). Have never made marmalade, though we've made a number of jams. Will have to add it to the list. I remember by gran making marmalade in a big old copper pan on an old range... and the results😋
Nothing wrong with a bread maker. I use it just to make bread completely if I can't be bothered, but even if I am making the loaf I use a breadmaker for the first proof. I make a wide range of stuff. Granary and a white with cumin seeds often, but also pizza base, french loaf, ciabatta, malt loaf, panettone, etc.
Anyone wish to dissuade me from laying Trump some more at 1.99 bf? I can't believe price is this low.
Backing at 2.54 Biden to win is an alternative and possibly better bet if you agree that his health concerns are somewhat exaggerated.
I prefer backing Biden. On Trump he is ahead in the polls and incumbants are doing badly globally.
I'm following the US elections state by state, though only a few matter. The key states are: Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College Votes) Trump leads by average of 1.9% Michigan (16 ECV) Trump leads by 0.8% Wisconsin (10 ECV) Trump leads by 1.3%
There is a difference between Trump lead for AV surveys (i.e. All Voters), RV surveys (Registered Voters) and LV surveys (Likely Voters). Trumps lead reduces by 2-3% suggesting that Trump supporters are less likely to turn out to vote.
Allowing for that differential in turnout gives Biden the above three states and 273 ECV, to Trump's 265 ECV. A very narrow win for Biden.
So currently I put it at 50/50. However I think the trend is with Biden from recent surveys and the economy. But the June debate will be the deciding event and I think Biden will win it.
Trump looks increasingly deranged and unsteady, even ill, at times.
Grapefruit has been tarnished by the medical evidence about enzymes, even among the unmedicated because why take a risk about vitamin absorption? But I also think decades of bad breakfast buffet juices took their toll: not fresh, reused.
Reused?
"All of out grapefruit juice has been passed by the management"
Are you suggesting the owners were taking the piss out of the management?
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
He isn’t going to save* the Tories, surely? That would leave him with significant egg on his face.
*in his mind, anyway
This is probably the best chance in the eyes of Reform to do serious damage to the Tories . I can’t see Farage agreeing a pact with them.
Farage running would probably up the Reform vote a bit from what it would be with non entity Tice, & it'd make the Tories seat count worse than the counterfactual. I know Cameron won a majority in 2015 but he'd probably have got a bigger one without UKIP.
One other thing that I forgot to look at is average age:
Maidstone and Malling: 40.1 years Macclesfield: 45.3 years
Obviously there will be cases where older seats are less favourable to the Conservatives, but it is interesting to note that this is another metric that would appear to make Maidstone less favourable to the Conservatives (or Macclesfield more favourable to them).
Anyone wish to dissuade me from laying Trump some more at 1.99 bf? I can't believe price is this low.
Backing at 2.54 Biden to win is an alternative and possibly better bet if you agree that his health concerns are somewhat exaggerated.
I prefer backing Biden. On Trump he is ahead in the polls and incumbants are doing badly globally.
I'm following the US elections state by state, though only a few matter. The key states are: Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College Votes) Trump leads by average of 1.9% Michigan (16 ECV) Trump leads by 0.8% Wisconsin (10 ECV) Trump leads by 1.3%
There is a difference between Trump lead for AV surveys (i.e. All Voters), RV surveys (Registered Voters) and LV surveys (Likely Voters). Trumps lead reduces by 2-3% suggesting that Trump supporters are less likely to turn out to vote.
Allowing for that differential in turnout gives Biden the above three states and 273 ECV, to Trump's 265 ECV. A very narrow win for Biden.
So currently I put it at 50/50. However I think the trend is with Biden from recent surveys and the economy. But the June debate will be the deciding event and I think Biden will win it.
Trump looks increasingly deranged and unsteady, even ill, at times.
He looked ghastly at that post-trial press conference. Like a more emaciated version of Alec Douglas-Home.
SPECULATION Reform can't get 630 candidates properly vetted so Farage at four is a bullshit 'we must focus our resources on these 500 seats' yadda yadda yadda
Badenoch is also Minister for Women and Equalities. Thanks once again for highlighting Labour’s complacency and indifference towards the rights of half the electorate. Quote
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret 2h I’m sure the world of trade and business will take note that the actual Secretary of State for trade and business has decided that the biggest issue on her agenda on her first big election outing is the weaponisation of trans rights. Anyone might be tempted to think @KemiBadenoch has less interest in the general election than the internal ideological shitshow likely to follow it.
If you want to understand just how manufactured the transgender culture war is, less than 2 years ago Kemi Badenoch was celebrating the fact that it was becoming easier to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate
Technically easier, because it could be done online - no reduction in the legal requirements, which is what ScotGov proposed, ignoring all the issues that could create.
Not quite the gotcha, is it?
Just to be clear: if you’re on the left & you’re dismissing an Equality Act amendment to protect women’s rights you don’t understand as hateful on the basis of who’s proposing it you’re as guilty as anyone of culture wars rhetoric in a sensitive debate about a conflict of rights.
Another dreadful Tory no doubt. #checks notes# leader writer for the Observer
Making it practically easier to get a GRC seems to go against the whole "we know what a woman is and she can't have a penis", when the point of a GRC is that some people with a penis can get legal recognition as being a woman.
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
Badenoch is also Minister for Women and Equalities. Thanks once again for highlighting Labour’s complacency and indifference towards the rights of half the electorate. Quote
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret 2h I’m sure the world of trade and business will take note that the actual Secretary of State for trade and business has decided that the biggest issue on her agenda on her first big election outing is the weaponisation of trans rights. Anyone might be tempted to think @KemiBadenoch has less interest in the general election than the internal ideological shitshow likely to follow it.
If you want to understand just how manufactured the transgender culture war is, less than 2 years ago Kemi Badenoch was celebrating the fact that it was becoming easier to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate
Technically easier, because it could be done online - no reduction in the legal requirements, which is what ScotGov proposed, ignoring all the issues that could create.
Not quite the gotcha, is it?
Just to be clear: if you’re on the left & you’re dismissing an Equality Act amendment to protect women’s rights you don’t understand as hateful on the basis of who’s proposing it you’re as guilty as anyone of culture wars rhetoric in a sensitive debate about a conflict of rights.
Another dreadful Tory no doubt. #checks notes# leader writer for the Observer
Making it practically easier to get a GRC seems to go against the whole "we know what a woman is and she can't have a penis", when the point of a GRC is that some people with a penis can get legal recognition as being a woman.
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
Worth a read:
An overview of the proposal to clarify the meaning of sex in the Equality Act.
I think one of the traps people are falling into is substituting “theory” for Common Law case law - of which there is plenty. All the proposal does is clarify what applies where - and clarity extends protections to both women and trans people.
Apparently the emergency announcement is a joint one with Tice who before Farage surfaced from his ‘retirement’ was beginning to carve out a slight independent profile. However it’s now clear he’s only Nigel’s ventriloquist dummy.
One other thing that I forgot to look at is average age:
Maidstone and Malling: 40.1 years Macclesfield: 45.3 years
Obviously there will be cases where older seats are less favourable to the Conservatives, but it is interesting to note that this is another metric that would appear to make Maidstone less favourable to the Conservatives (or Macclesfield more favourable to them).
Not much difference, more significant is Maidstone was almost 60% Leave and Macclesfield was Remain (plus a few villages in the Mallings will offset Tory losses in Maidstone)
Apparently the emergency announcement is a joint one with Tice who before Farage surfaced from his ‘retirement’ was beginning to carve out a slight independent profile. However it’s now clear he’s only Nigel’s ventriloquist dummy.
They can't find 630 vetted candidates. They are 'targeting'. (In other words, a deal has been done.) Is my guess.
Apparently the emergency announcement is a joint one with Tice who before Farage surfaced from his ‘retirement’ was beginning to carve out a slight independent profile. However it’s now clear he’s only Nigel’s ventriloquist dummy.
Thought-provoking header from TLG86. What is the east-west divide?
The west is richer than the east. Imagine a line running down the middle of England through the Pennines then following the West Coast Mainline down to London, continuing through the middle of it and on to the south coast.
We talk about the north south divide a lot - and it does exist, but there’s an east west divide too.
Didn't C Northcote Parkinson light-heartedly suggest a dividing line from Chester to London? ISTR that with increasing prosperity one moved east and south to the metropolis acquiring wealth, power and influence, and later dissipated these throught drink, depravity and other excesses, returning west and north to your starting point where the cycle could begin again. Is the reverse now true?
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I love grapefruit juice and marmalade..
A slightly odd combination. How do you serve it ?
Grapefruit marmalade is also a thing of wonder 😋
To serve such a thing would be the gravest inSeville-ity.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
He isn’t going to save* the Tories, surely? That would leave him with significant egg on his face.
*in his mind, anyway
This is probably the best chance in the eyes of Reform to do serious damage to the Tories . I can’t see Farage agreeing a pact with them.
In 2019, Brexit party voters were pretty well aligned with what the Tories wanted, and were big fans of Johnson.
Now, they're apparently much less keen on them, which is probably why Farage has been reluctant to do a deal, as he doesn't have anything like as much clout. The election doesn't look to be anything like as close either, so there's a strong chance they'd be standing down/doing a deal with a party that still loses, and that's not a good look.
Probably better to pretend you could have been the kingmaker, but retained the "moral" high ground of refusing to do so.
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I love grapefruit juice and marmalade, but I do love bitter and sour tastes.
I make my own marmalade and make it as bitter as possible. I try and get some caramelisation when cooking it by burning the bottom of the pan. Mine is pretty dark compared to the norm.
No shop marmalade is as good as homemade. same goes for pickled onions. I fill the vinegar with chills, peppercorns and coriander seeds and get a real punch.
The other thing homemade that beats shop bought is bread. I make most of my own bread. Love it. I could live on bread.
Yes, home made bread... We more or less stopped shop buying after we got a bread maker (maybe that's cheating, but hey, we're busy and lazy). Have never made marmalade, though we've made a number of jams. Will have to add it to the list. I remember by gran making marmalade in a big old copper pan on an old range... and the results😋
Using a bread maker does not equate with making your own bread.
Apparently the emergency announcement is a joint one with Tice who before Farage surfaced from his ‘retirement’ was beginning to carve out a slight independent profile. However it’s now clear he’s only Nigel’s ventriloquist dummy.
They can't find 630 vetted candidates. They are 'targeting'. (In other words, a deal has been done.) Is my guess.
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I love grapefruit juice and marmalade, but I do love bitter and sour tastes.
I make my own marmalade and make it as bitter as possible. I try and get some caramelisation when cooking it by burning the bottom of the pan. Mine is pretty dark compared to the norm.
No shop marmalade is as good as homemade. same goes for pickled onions. I fill the vinegar with chills, peppercorns and coriander seeds and get a real punch.
The other thing homemade that beats shop bought is bread. I make most of my own bread. Love it. I could live on bread.
Yes, home made bread... We more or less stopped shop buying after we got a bread maker (maybe that's cheating, but hey, we're busy and lazy). Have never made marmalade, though we've made a number of jams. Will have to add it to the list. I remember by gran making marmalade in a big old copper pan on an old range... and the results😋
Using a bread maker does not equate with making your own bread.
An odd prejudice. Does it only count if you kneed the bread yourself? What about if you use a magimix or such like? Does that not count?
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
I know Christopher Hope and Christopher Chope are different people, but the similarity messes me up every time
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
He isn’t going to save* the Tories, surely? That would leave him with significant egg on his face.
*in his mind, anyway
This is probably the best chance in the eyes of Reform to do serious damage to the Tories . I can’t see Farage agreeing a pact with them.
In 2019, Brexit party voters were pretty well aligned with what the Tories wanted, and were big fans of Johnson.
Now, they're apparently much less keen on them, which is probably why Farage has been reluctant to do a deal, as he doesn't have anything like as much clout. The election doesn't look to be anything like as close either, so there's a strong chance they'd be standing down/doing a deal with a party that still loses, and that's not a good look.
Probably better to pretend you could have been the kingmaker, but retained the "moral" high ground of refusing to do so.
In one day Farage claimed to have offered a deal to the Cons while admitting that he couldn't actually deliver most of his voters. Unusually honest of him!
The Cons responded by ruling out any such deal. Instead of just ignoring the nonsense and denying Reform the publicity.
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I love grapefruit juice and marmalade..
A slightly odd combination. How do you serve it ?
Grapefruit marmalade is also a thing of wonder 😋
To serve such a thing would be the gravest inSeville-ity.
I've heard that marmalade is similarly going out of favour, as younger generations don't like the bitter taste
I expect another factor is that grapefruit has to be avoided by many people as it interacts negatively with a whole raft of different medications.
You could switch to eating grapefruit, which has the advantage of putting some fibre into your diet too
This is true; I’ve had to ditch grapefruit.
Suspect marmalade will make a comeback though; truly one of the most delicious substances ever wrought by human hands.
Me eldest two (6 and 4) are big into marmalade. Mostly lemon or lime, but the eldest has recently graduated to orange marmalade (I didn't like that as a kid, finding it too bitter). So there's hope*
Also, reminds me, I've not had a grapefruit for breakfast in ages. Will add it to the list.
*we need more Paddington films - and not only for marmalade promotion purposes!
I love grapefruit juice and marmalade, but I do love bitter and sour tastes.
I make my own marmalade and make it as bitter as possible. I try and get some caramelisation when cooking it by burning the bottom of the pan. Mine is pretty dark compared to the norm.
No shop marmalade is as good as homemade. same goes for pickled onions. I fill the vinegar with chills, peppercorns and coriander seeds and get a real punch.
The other thing homemade that beats shop bought is bread. I make most of my own bread. Love it. I could live on bread.
Yes, home made bread... We more or less stopped shop buying after we got a bread maker (maybe that's cheating, but hey, we're busy and lazy). Have never made marmalade, though we've made a number of jams. Will have to add it to the list. I remember by gran making marmalade in a big old copper pan on an old range... and the results😋
Using a bread maker does not equate with making your own bread.
Hey, I never claimed we make our own bread - merely that it's made in our home, which it is!
Apparently the emergency announcement is a joint one with Tice who before Farage surfaced from his ‘retirement’ was beginning to carve out a slight independent profile. However it’s now clear he’s only Nigel’s ventriloquist dummy.
They can't find 630 vetted candidates. They are 'targeting'. (In other words, a deal has been done.) Is my guess.
Wonder what awful grubby deal has been done?
Peerage for Farage in resignation honours?
Can't see it - It's way more in the Conservatives interests to do a deal than Farage's. Farage's best bet is for the MRP to come true, a sub 100 parliamentary rump would be far easier to takeover than a 97 type "triumph" (well it would be at this point ) for the Tories.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
He isn’t going to save* the Tories, surely? That would leave him with significant egg on his face.
*in his mind, anyway
This is probably the best chance in the eyes of Reform to do serious damage to the Tories . I can’t see Farage agreeing a pact with them.
I mean have you taken a look at the polls recently. Doing "serious damage to the Tories" - what would that mean? Lab with a 340 majority rather than the 336 maj that the EC MRP poll predicts?
Apparently the emergency announcement is a joint one with Tice who before Farage surfaced from his ‘retirement’ was beginning to carve out a slight independent profile. However it’s now clear he’s only Nigel’s ventriloquist dummy.
They can't find 630 vetted candidates. They are 'targeting'. (In other words, a deal has been done.) Is my guess.
Wonder what awful grubby deal has been done?
Peerage for Farage in resignation honours?
Peerage for the Nige, some sort of merger in the new world order, who knows? Maybe Tice will be offered up to do balloon animals at Tory MPs kids parties
Anyone wish to dissuade me from laying Trump some more at 1.99 bf? I can't believe price is this low.
Backing at 2.54 Biden to win is an alternative and possibly better bet if you agree that his health concerns are somewhat exaggerated.
I prefer backing Biden. On Trump he is ahead in the polls and incumbants are doing badly globally.
I'm following the US elections state by state, though only a few matter. The key states are: Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College Votes) Trump leads by average of 1.9% Michigan (16 ECV) Trump leads by 0.8% Wisconsin (10 ECV) Trump leads by 1.3%
There is a difference between Trump lead for AV surveys (i.e. All Voters), RV surveys (Registered Voters) and LV surveys (Likely Voters). Trumps lead reduces by 2-3% suggesting that Trump supporters are less likely to turn out to vote.
Allowing for that differential in turnout gives Biden the above three states and 273 ECV, to Trump's 265 ECV. A very narrow win for Biden.
So currently I put it at 50/50. However I think the trend is with Biden from recent surveys and the economy. But the June debate will be the deciding event and I think Biden will win it.
Trump looks increasingly deranged and unsteady, even ill, at times.
He looked ghastly at that post-trial press conference. Like a more emaciated version of Alec Douglas-Home.
There was piece in NY Times other day saying Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were key.
Biden absolutely has to take Penn in order to get across the threshold.
@KateEMcCann Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.
How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
I think she's bang-on with identity politics.
Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
I’d say that aspects of the analysis are correct, the solutions that are proposed are more problematic. I have no issues with ensuring that biological women have proper protection in single sex spaces but too often rather than treat the problem as bad actors in the trans space the likes of Kemi and her ilk give the impression that Trans people are nothing but bad actors. That’s wrong and won’t help anyone get to the right place on this issue.
I have remarkably little interest in the Trans issue, which I imagine is the same of most people.
It's the broader point of judging people and weighting their experiences/views by what identity group they're in that I think is a problem. Even talking about it too much can reinforce it.
I was watching a youtube Warhammer video the other day which, if you can believe it, started talking about identity politics in an interesting way, in the context of geek fandom.
Essentially, I think we're Donald Ducked. Social media, even back to the Usenet days, is a huge engine for creating identity-based groups. The pandemic gave a good kicking to in-person socialisation that would act to balance it.
Identity-based social grouping creates a sense of being an embattled and victimised minority, it damages broader social empathy, and creates an atomised society of mutually antagonistic identity groups.
Was this the Arbitor Ian one? If so I thought that was a genuinely excellent distillation of the broader culture war/identitarianism in the specific context of a single interest area.
Of course, if Farage gets himself into the Commons, it makes it a lot easier for him to cross the floor to the Tories to run as their leader, though I am not sure if the party constitution requires them to have been a member for a period of time before running?
Badenoch is also Minister for Women and Equalities. Thanks once again for highlighting Labour’s complacency and indifference towards the rights of half the electorate. Quote
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret 2h I’m sure the world of trade and business will take note that the actual Secretary of State for trade and business has decided that the biggest issue on her agenda on her first big election outing is the weaponisation of trans rights. Anyone might be tempted to think @KemiBadenoch has less interest in the general election than the internal ideological shitshow likely to follow it.
If you want to understand just how manufactured the transgender culture war is, less than 2 years ago Kemi Badenoch was celebrating the fact that it was becoming easier to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate
Technically easier, because it could be done online - no reduction in the legal requirements, which is what ScotGov proposed, ignoring all the issues that could create.
Not quite the gotcha, is it?
Just to be clear: if you’re on the left & you’re dismissing an Equality Act amendment to protect women’s rights you don’t understand as hateful on the basis of who’s proposing it you’re as guilty as anyone of culture wars rhetoric in a sensitive debate about a conflict of rights.
Another dreadful Tory no doubt. #checks notes# leader writer for the Observer
Making it practically easier to get a GRC seems to go against the whole "we know what a woman is and she can't have a penis", when the point of a GRC is that some people with a penis can get legal recognition as being a woman.
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
Badenoch is also Minister for Women and Equalities. Thanks once again for highlighting Labour’s complacency and indifference towards the rights of half the electorate. Quote
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret 2h I’m sure the world of trade and business will take note that the actual Secretary of State for trade and business has decided that the biggest issue on her agenda on her first big election outing is the weaponisation of trans rights. Anyone might be tempted to think @KemiBadenoch has less interest in the general election than the internal ideological shitshow likely to follow it.
If you want to understand just how manufactured the transgender culture war is, less than 2 years ago Kemi Badenoch was celebrating the fact that it was becoming easier to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate
Technically easier, because it could be done online - no reduction in the legal requirements, which is what ScotGov proposed, ignoring all the issues that could create.
Not quite the gotcha, is it?
Just to be clear: if you’re on the left & you’re dismissing an Equality Act amendment to protect women’s rights you don’t understand as hateful on the basis of who’s proposing it you’re as guilty as anyone of culture wars rhetoric in a sensitive debate about a conflict of rights.
Another dreadful Tory no doubt. #checks notes# leader writer for the Observer
Making it practically easier to get a GRC seems to go against the whole "we know what a woman is and she can't have a penis", when the point of a GRC is that some people with a penis can get legal recognition as being a woman.
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
Worth a read:
An overview of the proposal to clarify the meaning of sex in the Equality Act.
I think one of the traps people are falling into is substituting “theory” for Common Law case law - of which there is plenty. All the proposal does is clarify what applies where - and clarity extends protections to both women and trans people.
The protection it extends to trans people is to protect them from being treated as the opposite sex. A minor point admittedly, but it bears mentioning, 😀
In their current mood I wouldn't rule out the Cons making a pact with Reform. It will (continue to) horrify many erstwhile Cons voters but who's to say that it wouldn't redefine UK politics with a centre right party (Lab) and a properly right party (Cons/Reform).
I love grapefruit juice. Can confirm the difficulty in obtaining it, though.
I hadn't noticed. I like drinking it but not that often.
I learned only today that grapefruit juice doubles the effects of Viagra.
It interferes with drug metabolising enzymes in the intestine and liver (and the effects can last for 24hrs or so), which means much higher bioavailability for a given drug dosage. So it can seriously change the effective dosage of a large number of different drugs (occasionally fatally).
(It can also reduce bioavailability for 'pro-drugs' which only become effective via metabolism.)
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
If it's the latter, I almost feel sorry for Sunak.
Apparently the emergency announcement is a joint one with Tice who before Farage surfaced from his ‘retirement’ was beginning to carve out a slight independent profile. However it’s now clear he’s only Nigel’s ventriloquist dummy.
They can't find 630 vetted candidates. They are 'targeting'. (In other words, a deal has been done.) Is my guess.
Wonder what awful grubby deal has been done?
Peerage for Farage in resignation honours?
Peerage for the Nige, some sort of merger in the new world order, who knows? Maybe Tice will be offered up to do balloon animals at Tory MPs kids parties
If the answer to the question Cui Bono has to be Nigel Farage then I would imagine nothing short of a senior position in the Cons party with a safe (!) seat to boot would be acceptable.
Nige must look back on the last two decades of his unprecedented electoral success and wonder what he could do to top it. Standing for election in Fuckborough can surely not come close to defining the political destiny of a country to the extent that he was able to in 2016.
Suggestions he will replace their candidate in Clacton who is in trouble for letting the mask slip and posting things that were anti-Semitic. Of course Nige isn’t immune to the odd tiny bit of racism adjacent rabble rousing.
Clacton is undoubtedly their best seat so it's strange Tice isn't standing there. Maybe because there was always an idea that Farage might slip in there.
Yes, and he will do the media rounds pretending that he’s answering an overwhelming number of calls to stand and playing the patriotic duty card. The MSM will swallow the bullshit wholesale and the GB News anchors will line up to metaphorically fellate him. Depressing and nauseating in equal measure.
Oh stop whining: Farage is playing politics. Its what politicians do. He’s just better at it than most
LOL Is that why he failed SEVEN times to get elected to Westminster?
We Brexited because of Farage. He’s probably the most consequential British politician since thatcher. You may despise him and abhor his views - fair enough - but these claims he is some kind of failure are absurd. Its like the twattish claim upthread that Trump is a bad businessman and bad politician
That’s Trump, the billionaire businessman who became the most powerful politician in the world
Haven't we form with Reform 'emergency announcements' turning out to be solely aimed at getting a bit of publicity while announcing nothing of interest? I'd guess an immigration spiel as an uninformed guess.
Also - as with 2019 - any decision to pull out would not be followed by many of their candidates. These folk are true believers and were mostly self-funding their campaigns anyway. To pull out now would be the end of Reform UK
Anyone wish to dissuade me from laying Trump some more at 1.99 bf? I can't believe price is this low.
Backing at 2.54 Biden to win is an alternative and possibly better bet if you agree that his health concerns are somewhat exaggerated.
I prefer backing Biden. On Trump he is ahead in the polls and incumbants are doing badly globally.
I'm following the US elections state by state, though only a few matter. The key states are: Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College Votes) Trump leads by average of 1.9% Michigan (16 ECV) Trump leads by 0.8% Wisconsin (10 ECV) Trump leads by 1.3%
There is a difference between Trump lead for AV surveys (i.e. All Voters), RV surveys (Registered Voters) and LV surveys (Likely Voters). Trumps lead reduces by 2-3% suggesting that Trump supporters are less likely to turn out to vote.
Allowing for that differential in turnout gives Biden the above three states and 273 ECV, to Trump's 265 ECV. A very narrow win for Biden.
So currently I put it at 50/50. However I think the trend is with Biden from recent surveys and the economy. But the June debate will be the deciding event and I think Biden will win it.
Trump looks increasingly deranged and unsteady, even ill, at times.
He looked ghastly at that post-trial press conference. Like a more emaciated version of Alec Douglas-Home.
@Leon probably knows more goss on this than me, but I think he's on Ozempic. And rapid weight loss doesn't suit him.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
If it's the latter, I almost feel sorry for Sunak.
I think the former is worse. The mighty Conservatives, the natural party of government, forced into a pact with Nigel Farage and a party with zero seats.
If the answer to the question Cui Bono has to be Nigel Farage then I would imagine nothing short of a senior position in the Cons party with a safe (!) seat to boot would be acceptable.
Nige must look back on the last two decades of his unprecedented electoral success and wonder what he could do to top it. Standing for election in Fuckborough can surely not come close to defining the political destiny of a country to the extent that he was able to in 2016.
I see that Leon and I are of rare accord on this one. Anyone who thinks Farage is not one of the most successful or effective politicians of our age has no right to be commenting on PB.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
If it's the latter, I almost feel sorry for Sunak.
I think the former is worse. The mighty Conservatives, the natural party of government, forced into a pact with Nigel Farage and a party with zero seats.
Badenoch is also Minister for Women and Equalities. Thanks once again for highlighting Labour’s complacency and indifference towards the rights of half the electorate. Quote
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret 2h I’m sure the world of trade and business will take note that the actual Secretary of State for trade and business has decided that the biggest issue on her agenda on her first big election outing is the weaponisation of trans rights. Anyone might be tempted to think @KemiBadenoch has less interest in the general election than the internal ideological shitshow likely to follow it.
If you want to understand just how manufactured the transgender culture war is, less than 2 years ago Kemi Badenoch was celebrating the fact that it was becoming easier to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate
Technically easier, because it could be done online - no reduction in the legal requirements, which is what ScotGov proposed, ignoring all the issues that could create.
Not quite the gotcha, is it?
Just to be clear: if you’re on the left & you’re dismissing an Equality Act amendment to protect women’s rights you don’t understand as hateful on the basis of who’s proposing it you’re as guilty as anyone of culture wars rhetoric in a sensitive debate about a conflict of rights.
Another dreadful Tory no doubt. #checks notes# leader writer for the Observer
Making it practically easier to get a GRC seems to go against the whole "we know what a woman is and she can't have a penis", when the point of a GRC is that some people with a penis can get legal recognition as being a woman.
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
Law is not a perfect thing. There is no legal definition that meets every single case that it is meant to encompass. However, there are plenty of definitions of biological sex that will protect the fast majority of women. Case law can iron out any small exceptions.
@KateEMcCann Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.
How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
I think she's bang-on with identity politics.
Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
I’d say that aspects of the analysis are correct, the solutions that are proposed are more problematic. I have no issues with ensuring that biological women have proper protection in single sex spaces but too often rather than treat the problem as bad actors in the trans space the likes of Kemi and her ilk give the impression that Trans people are nothing but bad actors. That’s wrong and won’t help anyone get to the right place on this issue.
I have remarkably little interest in the Trans issue, which I imagine is the same of most people.
It's the broader point of judging people and weighting their experiences/views by what identity group they're in that I think is a problem. Even talking about it too much can reinforce it.
I was watching a youtube Warhammer video the other day which, if you can believe it, started talking about identity politics in an interesting way, in the context of geek fandom.
Essentially, I think we're Donald Ducked. Social media, even back to the Usenet days, is a huge engine for creating identity-based groups. The pandemic gave a good kicking to in-person socialisation that would act to balance it.
Identity-based social grouping creates a sense of being an embattled and victimised minority, it damages broader social empathy, and creates an atomised society of mutually antagonistic identity groups.
Albeit, social majorities acting in the name of unity and homogeneity have done the same, and worse. The twentieth century was riddled with atrocities done by those with that mindset. Treating people well seems like a better guideline than trying to live without any social identity, and a lot more strategically sustainable in case the bad guys really are trying to destroy your group.
Yeah. Clearly I can't get a perfect account of my nuanced position across in this format, and a balance between the two extremes is warranted. There have definitely been some genuinely marginalised minority groups that have benefited a lot from the internet's ability to allow people with niche interests and minority identities to find each other.
But if everyone's identity reduces down only to which minority identity groups they are a member of (me = cyclist, aspie, knitter, mathmo, wargamer, geek, ecosocialist, hiker), and no shared identity on a larger scale (me = English, British, Democrat, European, Human) then I think we have a serious problem.
In particular, if a lot of those minority identity groups have no history of meaningful victimisation, but create a feeling of victimisation through the online expression of that identity group, which is particularly the case with geek fandom, and, say, drivers.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
If it's the latter, I almost feel sorry for Sunak.
Only a few days ago:
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · May 29 Richard Tice is Leader of @reformparty_uk and there won’t be any deals with the Tory party. End of.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
If it's the latter, I almost feel sorry for Sunak.
I think the former is worse. The mighty Conservatives, the natural party of government, forced into a pact with Nigel Farage and a party with zero seats.
@christopherhope NEW A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning. Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm. One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely). The deadline for nominations is imminent. Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on @GBNEWS .
If it's the latter, I almost feel sorry for Sunak.
I think the former is worse. The mighty Conservatives, the natural party of government, forced into a pact with Nigel Farage and a party with zero seats.
Comments
So we'll probably get plenty of visits to stone cold Labour gains.
Many who may have been on the fence are now supporting it due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
If Nigel wants to break his Parliamentary duck, it’s as good a place as any to try.
NEW
A Farage sized stone has just dropped into the becalmed election pond on Monday morning.
Very senior figures in Reform UK have been blindsided by Nigel Farage's statement at 4pm.
One friend of Farage tells me it will either be an electoral pact with the Tories (unlikely) or an about-turn on standing at the electionn (more likely).
The deadline for nominations is imminent.
Farage himself is not answering his phone. Watch the drama play out at 4pm on
@GBNEWS
.
Once upon a time, you might have suggested that FPTP protected us from the loonies, but...
"All of out grapefruit juice has been passed by the management"
Now that Donny Boy has been convicted, I guess his outlook has changed...
Mind you he might not go for it, he's got a history of marching to the top of the hill...
*in his mind, anyway
He'll up against Fash Slag but UKIP probably only have 20 quid in campaign funds.
Maidstone and Malling: 40.1 years
Macclesfield: 45.3 years
Obviously there will be cases where older seats are less favourable to the Conservatives, but it is interesting to note that this is another metric that would appear to make Maidstone less favourable to the Conservatives (or Macclesfield more favourable to them).
Reform can't get 630 candidates properly vetted so Farage at four is a bullshit 'we must focus our resources on these 500 seats' yadda yadda yadda
An overview of the proposal to clarify the meaning of sex in the Equality Act.
https://x.com/michaelpforan/status/1797558913698582579
I think one of the traps people are falling into is substituting “theory” for Common Law case law - of which there is plenty. All the proposal does is clarify what applies where - and clarity extends protections to both women and trans people.
Biden Favourable 32% Unfavourable 54%
Trump Favourable 31% Unfavourable 56%
Biden must have said some extra prayers in the GOP primary as if Haley had been his opponent not Trump he would likely be toast!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Is my guess.
Now, they're apparently much less keen on them, which is probably why Farage has been reluctant to do a deal, as he doesn't have anything like as much clout. The election doesn't look to be anything like as close either, so there's a strong chance they'd be standing down/doing a deal with a party that still loses, and that's not a good look.
Probably better to pretend you could have been the kingmaker, but retained the "moral" high ground of refusing to do so.
Cooper highlighting their "blue flag" proposal.
Peerage for Farage in resignation honours?
The Cons responded by ruling out any such deal. Instead of just ignoring the nonsense and denying Reform the publicity.
Maybe Tice will be offered up to do balloon animals at Tory MPs kids parties
Biden absolutely has to take Penn in order to get across the threshold.
https://youtu.be/x4oW6CzIsIE
So it can seriously change the effective dosage of a large number of different drugs (occasionally fatally).
(It can also reduce bioavailability for 'pro-drugs' which only become effective via metabolism.)
Nige must look back on the last two decades of his unprecedented electoral success and wonder what he could do to top it. Standing for election in Fuckborough can surely not come close to defining the political destiny of a country to the extent that he was able to in 2016.
That’s Trump, the billionaire businessman who became the most powerful politician in the world
Also - as with 2019 - any decision to pull out would not be followed by many of their candidates. These folk are true believers and were mostly self-funding their campaigns anyway. To pull out now would be the end of Reform UK
But if everyone's identity reduces down only to which minority identity groups they are a member of (me = cyclist, aspie, knitter, mathmo, wargamer, geek, ecosocialist, hiker), and no shared identity on a larger scale (me = English, British, Democrat, European, Human) then I think we have a serious problem.
In particular, if a lot of those minority identity groups have no history of meaningful victimisation, but create a feeling of victimisation through the online expression of that identity group, which is particularly the case with geek fandom, and, say, drivers.
Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
·
May 29
Richard Tice is Leader of @reformparty_uk and there won’t be any deals with the Tory party. End of.
https://x.com/IsabelOakeshott
It is indeed associated with a significant political
figure. Remember it was found on a train….