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Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited May 25
    OnboardG1 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
    Are you signing up Capt. Mainwaring?
    That is extremely unfair Mr Mexican. You're slandering a brave, patriotic and decent fellow who is just trying to do the best to help his country in its hour of need. And he's a rather sympathetic bank manager too.
    For bank manager, read tank manager.

    To be fair, recruitment for the services is a(nother) shitshow after being contracted out.

    As is Pilot Training I think, after David Cameron iirc tied it down to an as-cheap-as-possible model locking in exactly what we needed THEN, which now cannot be expanded without extreme difficulty.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Apparently the Commission that Rishi will setup for this policy will examine non-criminal sanctions for those that refuse to volunteer.

    So basically, it's a tax on being young.

    You mean, a tax on being young and poor? He might wish to study the outcomes of the New York City Draft Riots to see how well that sort of policy goes...
  • GIN1138 said:

    Someone should point out to Rishi that 18 year olds did their national service when they spent a year in lockdown as 14 and 15 years old.

    I pointed this out already but was told this was not right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    kyf_100 said:

    kle4 said:

    This whole affair is giving me flashbacks to my last playthrough of Suzerain, where despite my valiant efforts to modernise the economy of my ficitonal nation and bring peace to the region, I had botched education policy and caused debt to spiral on failed infrastructure projects, and my own spouse told me I shouldn't run for re-election because I was so crap at being President.

    It will probably hurt Rishi more when Akshata says the same thing to him.

    +1 for this.

    The new DLC is also excellent.
    Despite being effectively a visual novel one of the most absorbing games I've played in years. I'm such a wonk the fact a major plank of the story/gameplay is internal party management in order to pass a series of constitutional changes is just delightful to me. Can't wait to go through Rizia.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    OnboardG1 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
    Ah but you're discussing it with noted military historian and expert Leon, master of manoeuvre, a tactician on par with Rommel, a strategist on par with Napoleon, a logistician greater than Zhukhov and truly madder than all three.
    I'm sorry, but I have to call you to order here. I'm not just a strategist on a par with Napoleon, I am actually and literally the reincarnation of him, or - more accurately - he was a somewhat pallid, prior incarnation of me. This shit is important, it may seem trivial to some, but it is significant

    Why did he choose that name? NapoLEON. He knew. He knew deep inside
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    £2.5bn, couldn't that go on like, tuition fees

    £2.5bn for the full-timers, another £4bn for the 700k part-timer "volunteers", plus another couple of billion to feed, water, and manage them. Likely another billion or so to actually create volunteering opportunities for them and provide tools & materials etc. Call it £10bn in total.

    Cost of abolishing tuition fees whilst maintaining student numbers: £10.38 bn (according to London Economics for UCU earlier this month)

    So, pretty much a wash.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701
    edited May 25
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
    Doubling income tax raises an additional £300billion for the armed forces.

    I think we might be able to arm-twist a few more professional and long-term recruits with that.

    We agree i think on the ends - we have to bulk our military because Russia is planning total war and Trump isn't going to save europe. We are disagreeing over whether Sunak's barely thought out plan is the answer.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    Paging Morris Dancer

    @tc1415
    This is a totally moronic policy and whoever has decided it should be in our manifesto should be fired out of a cannon.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited May 25
    OT: Roland Rat in the steering wheel of a Ford Focus, which came from I know not where today.

    You will never unsee it.

    Good job all PBers ride Triumph Motorcycles or drive prestige German.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    MattW said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
    Are you signing up Capt. Mainwaring?
    That is extremely unfair Mr Mexican. You're slandering a brave, patriotic and decent fellow who is just trying to do the best to help his country in its hour of need. And he's a rather sympathetic bank manager too.
    For bank manager, read tank manager.

    To be fair, recruitment for the services is a(nother) shitshow after being contracted out.

    As is Pilot Training I think, after David Cameron iirc tied it down to an as-cheap-as-possible model locking in exactly what we needed THEN, which now cannot be expanded without extreme difficulty.
    We could probably use that 2.5bn to get more people into the armed services than this wild ass idea by bringing recruitment back in house and making it work properly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    @gabyhinsliff

    This sounds like policy made by AI trained exclusively on copies of the Daily Telegrah. but worst of all it costs £2.5bn, I repeat £2.5bn, for most 18yos to do a glorified Duke of Edinburgh award?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,644
    MattW said:

    OT: Roland Rat in the steering wheel of a Ford Focus, which came from I know not where today.

    You will never unsee it.

    You've just ruined my car.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak allies insist the national service plan has been worked on for weeks, is “extremely detailed” and is only one of a raft of proposals that underpin the election slogan “bold action”. One said:

    “This has not been put together in a rush, rather been considerable work over a long period of time”.

    Another said: “policy work on this is extremely detailed. Three weeks ago the short was 35 pages.”


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1794499476041720202

    Maybe announce it with the detail and context in a speech, and not drip it out at 10pm on a Saturday then, you bloody idiot.

    Even people who like national service as an idea - and I'm not intrinsically opposed - will hate this.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
    Ah but you're discussing it with noted military historian and expert Leon, master of manoeuvre, a tactician on par with Rommel, a strategist on par with Napoleon, a logistician greater than Zhukhov and truly madder than all three.
    I'm sorry, but I have to call you to order here. I'm not just a strategist on a par with Napoleon, I am actually and literally the reincarnation of him, or - more accurately - he was a somewhat pallid, prior incarnation of me. This shit is important, it may seem trivial to some, but it is significant

    Why did he choose that name? NapoLEON. He knew. He knew deep inside
    Having seen the Napoleon film, I will agree that you bear many similarities to the depiction of the man.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274

    GIN1138 said:

    Someone should point out to Rishi that 18 year olds did their national service when they spent a year in lockdown as 14 and 15 years old.

    I pointed this out already but was told this was not right.
    Didn't see the comment, but I think you're right. This generation of kids spent a year shut away from school and their friends to try and prevent deaths in the elderly from a virus that for most of them would have been no worse than a cold.

    Politicians should be working on policies to reward this generation of youngsters for their service and sacrifices during lockdown, not coming up with ways to punish them further...

    All in my opinion, of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    This whole affair is giving me flashbacks to my last playthrough of Suzerain, where despite my valiant efforts to modernise the economy of my ficitonal nation and bring peace to the region, I had botched education policy and caused debt to spiral on failed infrastructure projects, and my own spouse told me I shouldn't run for re-election because I was so crap at being President.

    It will probably hurt Rishi more when Akshata says the same thing to him.

    I liberalized the country, joined NATO, crushed Akshata's version of Theresa May in the primaries and then announced a shock retirement to live in the pseudo-US as a tech millionaire. I think I got the good ending?
    I did manage to end the constitutional quagmire of the 'special region' and even get the previous dictator convicted, but it must have taken too much out of me. I should play it again to feel more sympathy for Rishi, running a country is hard!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    Eabhal said:

    Well, we can't complain that the campaign is boring.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A lorry driver killed a cyclist in Glasgow and got 100.

    25 days. Presume 8 hour work days. That's 200 hours.

    Which is still more than the lorry driver.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,644
    Eabhal said:

    Well, we can't complain that the campaign is boring.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A lorry driver killed a cyclist in Glasgow and got 100.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A child rapist* from Midlothian got 270.

    *Conviction overturned on appeal, but had it stood...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978

    Eabhal said:

    Well, we can't complain that the campaign is boring.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A lorry driver killed a cyclist in Glasgow and got 100.

    25 days. Presume 8 hour work days. That's 200 hours.

    Which is still more than the lorry driver.
    Yeah but we all know how much of a shit most 18 year olds are ;-)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Never seen so many comments on PB after 11pm, (excepting election/referendum nights).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    See. The whole thrust of this policy is that the state of the country is the fault of feckless young people.
    It's actually my generation and above.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ....

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    It is Leon, but first as a political leader you engage with the voting public. You explain how dangerous Putin is and you develop a conversation to explain that in order to secure a free United Kingdom for our children and our children's children we need to look at certain difficult options.

    You don't ponder "how do we attract crazy ape- bonkers Reform voters? I know send their sons, daughters and grandchildren to Deepcut for 12 months. That should do the trick".
    But that’s not the policy. It’s compulsory community service with an exception for people who join the military.
    Oh for goodness sake, that is not how it will be perceived by voters.

    The options are not exactly equal though are they? A year on patrol in a warzone or a few bob-a-job weekends?

    And someone liked your post!!!!
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    kle4 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    This whole affair is giving me flashbacks to my last playthrough of Suzerain, where despite my valiant efforts to modernise the economy of my ficitonal nation and bring peace to the region, I had botched education policy and caused debt to spiral on failed infrastructure projects, and my own spouse told me I shouldn't run for re-election because I was so crap at being President.

    It will probably hurt Rishi more when Akshata says the same thing to him.

    I liberalized the country, joined NATO, crushed Akshata's version of Theresa May in the primaries and then announced a shock retirement to live in the pseudo-US as a tech millionaire. I think I got the good ending?
    I did manage to end the constitutional quagmire of the 'special region' and even get the previous dictator convicted, but it must have taken too much out of me. I should play it again to feel more sympathy for Rishi, running a country is hard!
    I think I sent him into internal exile since I didn't want to completely blow up the entire party. He came in to do a speech at some point and metaphorically died on his arse so I count that as a success.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    So is an actual last thought - will any media come out and back this idea?

    Rishi needs help to sell this as not a disaster, and if Guido is any indication he won't find it among the Reform minded alternative media, so will any traditional media go to bat for him on this to reassure the old fogeys it is to appeal to?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    Sunak's "National Service" plan requires a Royal Commission and 5 years to implement - meanwhile our armed forces have the lowest morale and satisfaction rates for decades: pay them well, honour their service and incentivise reserve participation ... you can't fly an F-35 one weekend a month!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    How do you handle safeguarding? How do you check which 18 year olds you don't want working in the NHS or police?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    So is an actual last thought - will any media come out and back this idea?

    Rishi needs help to sell this as not a disaster, and if Guido is any indication he won't find it among the Reform minded alternative media, so will any traditional media go to bat for him on this to reassure the old fogeys it is to appeal to?

    GB News?

    Even among the papers, Sunak is pretty much down to the Telegraph and even they gave a nice write up of Starmer today.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    How do you handle safeguarding? How do you check which 18 year olds you don't want working in the NHS or police?

    Apparently a Royal Commission will spend five years looking into this and other aspects.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Farooq said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
    Ah but you're discussing it with noted military historian and expert Leon, master of manoeuvre, a tactician on par with Rommel, a strategist on par with Napoleon, a logistician greater than Zhukhov and truly madder than all three.
    I'm sorry, but I have to call you to order here. I'm not just a strategist on a par with Napoleon, I am actually and literally the reincarnation of him, or - more accurately - he was a somewhat pallid, prior incarnation of me. This shit is important, it may seem trivial to some, but it is significant

    Why did he choose that name? NapoLEON. He knew. He knew deep inside
    Having seen the Napoleon film, I will agree that you bear many similarities to the depiction of the man.
    More like Trotsky, imo
    Sadly we can't follow Lenin's example on that one:

    "Trotsky has sent a silly letter, we will neither print it nor reply"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited May 25


    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    Sunak's "National Service" plan requires a Royal Commission and 5 years to implement - meanwhile our armed forces have the lowest morale and satisfaction rates for decades: pay them well, honour their service and incentivise reserve participation ... you can't fly an F-35 one weekend a month!

    He has obviously never heard of Microsoft Flight Simulator....
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589


    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    Sunak's "National Service" plan requires a Royal Commission and 5 years to implement - meanwhile our armed forces have the lowest morale and satisfaction rates for decades: pay them well, honour their service and incentivise reserve participation ... you can't fly an F-35 one weekend a month!

    Spicehead is a cretin but he isn't wrong.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,644
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Well, we can't complain that the campaign is boring.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A lorry driver killed a cyclist in Glasgow and got 100.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A child rapist* from Midlothian got 270.

    *Conviction overturned on appeal, but had it stood...
    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A child abuser (for 29 years!) from Bridge of Weir got 300.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701
    kle4 said:

    So is an actual last thought - will any media come out and back this idea?

    Rishi needs help to sell this as not a disaster, and if Guido is any indication he won't find it among the Reform minded alternative media, so will any traditional media go to bat for him on this to reassure the old fogeys it is to appeal to?

    All the usual suspects have it as "EXCLUSIVE" news.

    Not sure about the Comment pages yet.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589


    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    Sunak's "National Service" plan requires a Royal Commission and 5 years to implement - meanwhile our armed forces have the lowest morale and satisfaction rates for decades: pay them well, honour their service and incentivise reserve participation ... you can't fly an F-35 one weekend a month!

    He has obviously never heard of Microsoft Flight Simulator....
    I did have a good laugh tbf at that Bradley driver who knocked out a T-90 because he knew the weakpoints in the armour layout from playing War Thunder.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978

    How do you handle safeguarding? How do you check which 18 year olds you don't want working in the NHS or police?

    Apparently a Royal Commission will spend five years looking into this and other aspects.
    It just gets worse. Its not even decisive action, it would be 5 years of circle jerking at the tax payer expense to work out that it doesn't work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Well, we can't complain that the campaign is boring.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A lorry driver killed a cyclist in Glasgow and got 100.

    800 hours of "compulsory volunteering" for young people. A child rapist* from Midlothian got 270.

    *Conviction overturned on appeal, but had it stood...
    Though you can be sent to prison if you fail to comply with a community service order for a few months. That is unlikely to apply in this case for school leavers
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    How do you handle safeguarding? How do you check which 18 year olds you don't want working in the NHS or police?

    Same as OFSTED.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    OnboardG1 said:


    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    Sunak's "National Service" plan requires a Royal Commission and 5 years to implement - meanwhile our armed forces have the lowest morale and satisfaction rates for decades: pay them well, honour their service and incentivise reserve participation ... you can't fly an F-35 one weekend a month!

    He has obviously never heard of Microsoft Flight Simulator....
    I did have a good laugh tbf at that Bradley driver who knocked out a T-90 because he knew the weakpoints in the armour layout from playing War Thunder.
    Was it War Thunder where a player wrote to the devs to say you have such and such a tank wrong, and they said how do you know, and they were actually a tank driver and had a set of military documents. The devs then put that in the game.

    Edit - It was Challenger 2. Apparently the turret was the wrong thickness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Well, at least next week Trump is going to be convicted/acquitted/hung juried, so that will take up a lot of media attention to give Rishi some breathing room.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak allies insist the national service plan has been worked on for weeks, is “extremely detailed” and is only one of a raft of proposals that underpin the election slogan “bold action”. One said:

    “This has not been put together in a rush, rather been considerable work over a long period of time”.

    Another said: “policy work on this is extremely detailed. Three weeks ago the short was 35 pages.”


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1794499476041720202

    Bold Action is going to be a series of whacko policies one after the other isn't it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978

    Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak allies insist the national service plan has been worked on for weeks, is “extremely detailed” and is only one of a raft of proposals that underpin the election slogan “bold action”. One said:

    “This has not been put together in a rush, rather been considerable work over a long period of time”.

    Another said: “policy work on this is extremely detailed. Three weeks ago the short was 35 pages.”


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1794499476041720202

    Bold Action is going to be a series of whacko policies one after the other isn't it?
    Free Owls for all...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak allies insist the national service plan has been worked on for weeks, is “extremely detailed” and is only one of a raft of proposals that underpin the election slogan “bold action”. One said:

    “This has not been put together in a rush, rather been considerable work over a long period of time”.

    Another said: “policy work on this is extremely detailed. Three weeks ago the short was 35 pages.”


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1794499476041720202

    Bold Action is going to be a series of whacko policies one after the other isn't it?
    I think what he somehow learned from Truss was to do more bold policies without checking party backing for the idea first.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701
    Grammar schools on Monday?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,294
    Andy_JS said:

    Never seen so many comments on PB after 11pm, (excepting election/referendum nights).

    If anyone has ideas on getting an 18month old to sleep I'm all ears...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    So is an actual last thought - will any media come out and back this idea?

    Rishi needs help to sell this as not a disaster, and if Guido is any indication he won't find it among the Reform minded alternative media, so will any traditional media go to bat for him on this to reassure the old fogeys it is to appeal to?

    The Daily Express wrote the policy, (to paraphrase David Brent. 😊 )
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    So is an actual last thought - will any media come out and back this idea?

    Rishi needs help to sell this as not a disaster, and if Guido is any indication he won't find it among the Reform minded alternative media, so will any traditional media go to bat for him on this to reassure the old fogeys it is to appeal to?

    Oh the Telegraph will go out to bat for any old shit from the blue side.
    Sure, but in a lukewarm, obligatory kind of way. We'll be able to tell if their heart is really in it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    1h
    As
    @BloombergUK
    reported 2 days ago the Sunak strategy is to go very hard after Reform votes in the first 2 weeks to narrow the gap with Labour — that’s what the National Service policy is about — whether it works is another question

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1794480686566437113
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
    Ah but you're discussing it with noted military historian and expert Leon, master of manoeuvre, a tactician on par with Rommel, a strategist on par with Napoleon, a logistician greater than Zhukhov and truly madder than all three.
    I'm sorry, but I have to call you to order here. I'm not just a strategist on a par with Napoleon, I am actually and literally the reincarnation of him, or - more accurately - he was a somewhat pallid, prior incarnation of me. This shit is important, it may seem trivial to some, but it is significant

    Why did he choose that name? NapoLEON. He knew. He knew deep inside
    What do the Foreign Legion see and do when you open your coat and say "Go on then, shoot me!" ?

    But isn't this actually a claim to be related to Miss @Cyclefree and her 17 co-owners of whatever that picture was?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    rkrkrk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Never seen so many comments on PB after 11pm, (excepting election/referendum nights).

    If anyone has ideas on getting an 18month old to sleep I'm all ears...
    Play Starmer speeches to them?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    How do you handle safeguarding? How do you check which 18 year olds you don't want working in the NHS or police?

    Finding suitable roles for 700,000 18 year olds is going to be a gargantuan task all by itself. Will they be given training? Will their performance be monitored? Will they be insured? Can they claim travel expenses? Who's going to administer it all?

    Krishna Sunak is13. If this scheme is to go into operation in 5 years, she'll be in the first cohort. What does she think about it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978

    Grammar schools on Monday?

    IHT to £1 million threshold....
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,644
    edited May 25
    It's not just us - the comments on the Daily Mail article are nearly as scathing

    "there goes my vote for the Tories. As a mum of 3 - I do not want my kids being forced to do that"

    "So our young do national service, while illegal migrants get housed and given benefits."

    "The final nail in the coffin. I am one of the ‘anyone but Labour’ voters. Was seriously considering a Tory vote, but this latest policy will direct my vote to Reform."

    "6000 ex British servicemen are living on the streets in the uk today while we feed and house illegals, how about looking after them, I wouldn’t fight for this country again. "
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    OnboardG1 said:


    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    Sunak's "National Service" plan requires a Royal Commission and 5 years to implement - meanwhile our armed forces have the lowest morale and satisfaction rates for decades: pay them well, honour their service and incentivise reserve participation ... you can't fly an F-35 one weekend a month!

    He has obviously never heard of Microsoft Flight Simulator....
    I did have a good laugh tbf at that Bradley driver who knocked out a T-90 because he knew the weakpoints in the armour layout from playing War Thunder.
    Was it War Thunder where a player wrote to the devs to say you have such and such a tank wrong, and they said how do you know, and they were actually a tank driver and had a set of military documents. The devs then put that in the game.

    Edit - It was Challenger 2. Apparently the turret was the wrong thickness.
    Not quite. There have been... seven I think incidents of classified documents posted on the WT forums from France, the US, UK, and China including certain bits of Challenger 2 documentation. The mods nuke those posts from orbit because they're a Russian company at the end of the chain and they don't want to risk their largest markets banning them over security leaks. What you're thinking of is a public access source that was submitted as a bug report over an incorrect model and they updated that last patch (but not correctly so there was a lot of blowback from Teaboos on the forums and reddit).

    I only play WW2 era stuff because the playerbase that dick around in the modern tiers are truly horrendous human beings.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    edited May 25
    Well if it's about Reform voters.

    It will be ECHR and death penalty almost certainly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047

    Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak allies insist the national service plan has been worked on for weeks, is “extremely detailed” and is only one of a raft of proposals that underpin the election slogan “bold action”. One said:

    “This has not been put together in a rush, rather been considerable work over a long period of time”.

    Another said: “policy work on this is extremely detailed. Three weeks ago the short was 35 pages.”


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1794499476041720202

    Bold Action is going to be a series of whacko policies one after the other isn't it?
    Free Owls for all...
    Don't they give everyone in the US a free owl? A really good owl? A superb owl? I'm sure there's a day every year when they go on about it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    Apparently the Commission that Rishi will setup for this policy will examine non-criminal sanctions for those that refuse to volunteer.

    So basically, it's a tax on being young.

    Authoritarian little shit. "Non-criminal sanctions" my arse. If you are going to do something that involves enforcement, enough of this nudge rubbish, pass actual laws via actual debate in an actual Parliament. It's a democracy you [rudeword][badman].
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    May must be laughing her face off tonight.

    Makes her campaign look like New Labour 1997.

    She's not laughing though, she's running through fields of wheat.
  • Eabhal said:

    It's not just us - the comments on the Daily Mail article are nearly as scathing

    I refuse to give them clicks, can you post a sample?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    edited May 25
    rkrkrk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Never seen so many comments on PB after 11pm, (excepting election/referendum nights).

    If anyone has ideas on getting an 18month old to sleep I'm all ears...
    Turn on the hoover

    (seriously, it worked for us, apparently it mimics the amniotic whoosh of the womb)

    I've heard that putting the bambino in the back of a car can do the same
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701
    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Moldova isn't in NATO. Sadly for them.

    If he invades Finland he'll know about it.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    Well if it's about Reform voters.

    It will be ECHR and death penalty almost certainly.

    Lefty former supreme court judge Jonathan Sumption is in favour of us leaving the ECHR.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Eabhal said:

    It's not just us - the comments on the Daily Mail article are nearly as scathing

    "there goes my vote for the Tories. As a mum of 3 - I do not want my kids being forced to do that"

    I don't have a hazmat suit rated for that task so fair play.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    viewcode said:

    Apparently the Commission that Rishi will setup for this policy will examine non-criminal sanctions for those that refuse to volunteer.

    So basically, it's a tax on being young.

    Authoritarian little shit. "Non-criminal sanctions" my arse. If you are going to do something that involves enforcement, enough of this nudge rubbish, pass actual laws via actual debate in an actual Parliament. It's a democracy you [rudeword][badman].
    I don't think there's any suggestion that this wouldn't go through Parliament. Indeed, Sunak isn't actually proposing a policy. He's proposing setting up a Royal Commission to consider the issue.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701
    rkrkrk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Never seen so many comments on PB after 11pm, (excepting election/referendum nights).

    If anyone has ideas on getting an 18month old to sleep I'm all ears...
    Tell him/her to get some sleep now because in 16 years and a bit they'll be in a trench volunteering.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited May 25
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    OT: Roland Rat in the steering wheel of a Ford Focus, which came from I know not where today.

    You will never unsee it.

    You've just ruined my car.
    If it's any consolation, I came across quite a cool Raleigh advert that I had not seen before. A small resistance to the IDS culture war (which will end abruptly on July 5th).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oltX2dxHYDE
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Never seen so many comments on PB after 11pm, (excepting election/referendum nights).

    If anyone has ideas on getting an 18month old to sleep I'm all ears...
    Tell him/her to get some sleep now because in 16 years and a bit they'll be in a trench volunteering.
    Fighting the Russian and Chinese...

    Reminds me of that classic Peter Kay John Smiths sketch about the cupboard monsters.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,644

    Eabhal said:

    It's not just us - the comments on the Daily Mail article are nearly as scathing

    I refuse to give them clicks, can you post a sample?
    See above - edited the post
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    Grammar schools on Monday?

    IHT to £1 million threshold....
    £2 million
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258

    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Moldova isn't in NATO. Sadly for them.

    If he invades Finland he'll know about it.

    So you would send British troops to defend Finland? Where do these troops come from?

    Or you would immedately nuke Smolensk? Seriously, what is it? Because these are no longer sad reveries, they are real dilemmas. Putin is prepared to invade neighbouring states and he has turned Russia into a martial country whose only purpose can be conquest, and which makes no sense economically without further war
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    1h
    As
    @BloombergUK
    reported 2 days ago the Sunak strategy is to go very hard after Reform votes in the first 2 weeks to narrow the gap with Labour — that’s what the National Service policy is about — whether it works is another question

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1794480686566437113

    Well Yougov did show most Leavers backed restoring National Service
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories are still short of 190 candidates

    @jamiesont

    Eighteen year olds get to choose between 12months in the army or 6weeks as a Tory election candidate

    A snap announcement certainly wrong footed those in charge of political party machinery. Genius! Wait, did you say the Tories are 190 candidates short? Oh...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited May 25
    The problem with Rishi going hard right to woo REFORM voters is that nobody believes it.

    If this was coming from Sue-Ellen, then fair enough, people would probably buy it, but from Rishi? Nobody really believes he believes in this shit.

    Rishi's best (only) strategy was to go for quiet, mild mannered competence, but he blew that long ago. Now he's just doubling down on all his mistakes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,953
    edited May 25
    .

    Scarpia said:

    EPG said:

    People about to start FE or uni don't necessarily have free time. Most 68 year olds do.

    So does this mean that HMG/MoD will be issuing ammunition boots with the flap over Velcro to save bending down and tying shoelaces before presenting for 7.00am drill practice?
    Armoured Zimmers.
    Zimmered armour..


  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited May 25
    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Hmmm.

    Ignoring the bits after words 1-6, how is Putin going to get to Moldova?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,644
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    OT: Roland Rat in the steering wheel of a Ford Focus, which came from I know not where today.

    You will never unsee it.

    You've just ruined my car.
    If it's any consolation, I came across quite a cool Raleigh advert that I had not seen before. A small resistance to the IDS culture war.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oltX2dxHYDE
    Ah that's excellent!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Oh god - I feel like I’m going to step into the firing line here, but I don’t think the idea is necessarily that.., bad?

    Dont get me wrong, it won’t make me vote Tory. Do I think the idea is worthwhile? Potentially. Do I think it’s a bit performative? Possibly. But do I think giving young people access to practical service/volunteering opportunities is a bad idea! Not really.

    I remain at your disposal to castigate at will.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,644
    edited May 25

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories are still short of 190 candidates

    @jamiesont

    Eighteen year olds get to choose between 12months in the army or 6weeks as a Tory election candidate

    A snap announcement certainly wrong footed those in charge of political party machinery. Genius! Wait, did you say the Tories are 190 candidates short? Oh...
    If the Tories are struggling to get 190 candidates, not sure how they will persuade half a million 18 year olds to join the army or do a bit of "volunteering"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Andy_JS said:

    Well if it's about Reform voters.

    It will be ECHR and death penalty almost certainly.

    Lefty former supreme court judge Jonathan Sumption is in favour of us leaving the ECHR.
    Lefty?!
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    GIN1138 said:

    The problem with Rishi going hard right to woo REFORM voters is that nobody believes it.

    If this was coming from Sue-Ellen, then fair enough, people would probably buy it but from Rishi? Nobody really believes he believes in this shit.

    Rishi's best (only) strategy was to go for quiet, mild mannered competence, but he blew that long ago. Now he's just doubling down on all his mistakes.

    This is the sort of thing that probably won't matter in most Labour-Tory marginals because the economic picture is so bad that the average Red Waller is just sick of Team Blue. The Lib Dems now, they'll be singing to the rafters on this one. Oppose a silly policy and get free real estate in the Home Counties. "Joquasta will be sent to Kharkiv if you vote for the Tories".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Hmmm.

    Ignoring the bits after words 1-6, how is Putin going to get to Moldova?
    Transdniestr

    What we really need is a PB-er willing to go to this mad part of the world, and report back honestly
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    viewcode said:

    Apparently the Commission that Rishi will setup for this policy will examine non-criminal sanctions for those that refuse to volunteer.

    So basically, it's a tax on being young.

    Authoritarian little shit. "Non-criminal sanctions" my arse. If you are going to do something that involves enforcement, enough of this nudge rubbish, pass actual laws via actual debate in an actual Parliament. It's a democracy you [rudeword][badman].
    I don't think there's any suggestion that this wouldn't go through Parliament. Indeed, Sunak isn't actually proposing a policy. He's proposing setting up a Royal Commission to consider the issue.
    This is how we know that there hasn't really been "extremely detailed, actually" work going on for weeks on this policy.

    There have only been three Royal Commissions set up since the end of the 1970s - the most recent was The Royal Commission on the Reform of the House of Lords in 1999.

    So the whole "we'll set up a Royal Commission" thing shows us that it's an idea that's been farted out at the last minute without checking what the words and phrases being used actually mean.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/LLN-2020-0094/Royal-commissions-appointed-since-1945.pdf
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Oh god - I feel like I’m going to step into the firing line here, but I don’t think the idea is necessarily that.., bad?

    Dont get me wrong, it won’t make me vote Tory. Do I think the idea is worthwhile? Potentially. Do I think it’s a bit performative? Possibly. But do I think giving young people access to practical service/volunteering opportunities is a bad idea! Not really.

    I remain at your disposal to castigate at will.

    But do you think it politically savvy to announce it now in this way?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    Well if it's about Reform voters.

    It will be ECHR and death penalty almost certainly.

    Lefty former supreme court judge Jonathan Sumption is in favour of us leaving the ECHR.
    Can we have a citation please?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    Daily Mail have the exclusive Sunak statement on this (incredibly it says William Hague was involved).

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13460033/prime-minister-military-service-school-leavers-12-months-general-election.html
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    OT: Roland Rat in the steering wheel of a Ford Focus, which came from I know not where today.

    You will never unsee it.

    You've just ruined my car.
    If it's any consolation, I came across quite a cool Raleigh advert that I had not seen before. A small resistance to the IDS culture war.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oltX2dxHYDE
    Ah that's excellent!
    Not enough cycles as mobility aid, and too many helmets. But very very good.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,605
    kle4 said:

    Oh god - I feel like I’m going to step into the firing line here, but I don’t think the idea is necessarily that.., bad?

    Dont get me wrong, it won’t make me vote Tory. Do I think the idea is worthwhile? Potentially. Do I think it’s a bit performative? Possibly. But do I think giving young people access to practical service/volunteering opportunities is a bad idea! Not really.

    I remain at your disposal to castigate at will.

    But do you think it politically savvy to announce it now in this way?
    Potentially yes, because it will inevitably lead to Labour spokespeople denouncing it in hysterical terms that will strike some of their own voters as weird.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    I wish I'd done national service for 12 months instead of sitting at home watching bowls, darts and snooker.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    kle4 said:

    Oh god - I feel like I’m going to step into the firing line here, but I don’t think the idea is necessarily that.., bad?

    Dont get me wrong, it won’t make me vote Tory. Do I think the idea is worthwhile? Potentially. Do I think it’s a bit performative? Possibly. But do I think giving young people access to practical service/volunteering opportunities is a bad idea! Not really.

    I remain at your disposal to castigate at will.

    But do you think it politically savvy to announce it now in this way?
    Questionable. Likely to put off some people but attract others. If I’m honest I suspect it’s electorally neutral (at least when it comes to a core vote strategy). But it’s a tough one.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Oh god - I feel like I’m going to step into the firing line here, but I don’t think the idea is necessarily that.., bad?

    Dont get me wrong, it won’t make me vote Tory. Do I think the idea is worthwhile? Potentially. Do I think it’s a bit performative? Possibly. But do I think giving young people access to practical service/volunteering opportunities is a bad idea! Not really.

    I remain at your disposal to castigate at will.

    I think you're right about the last bit, but this policy is quite a bad way to do it. Firstly, it's ruinously expensive to make it mandatory. You have to set up enforcement mechanisms, you need to track and organise deployment of that manpower and you need to equip the people to do the job you've parachuted them into. Secondly, raw manpower is often not what is needed, certainly not untrained manpower that will do one day a week and then bugger off. That's more likely to be a hindrance than a help. In my particular little part of the public sector we would have zero use for that. We need trained specialists, not a work experience boy or girl. Finally you need to be serious about sanctions or it becomes a joke, and if you're serious about sanctions and fairness that needs to go beyond a token monetary sum or it just becomes a poverty draft. How well is that likely to go down?

    I'm leaving the army bit aside because bluntly, the UK military is not set up for conscription and we'd be better off using the money to enhance the regular army, navy and air force significantly with better kit, conditions and recruitment. Basically reverse everything Cameron did since 2010 and most of what Blair/Brown did after 2005.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Moldova isn't in NATO. Sadly for them.

    If he invades Finland he'll know about it.

    So you would send British troops to defend Finland? Where do these troops come from?

    Or you would immedately nuke Smolensk? Seriously, what is it? Because these are no longer sad reveries, they are real dilemmas. Putin is prepared to invade neighbouring states and he has turned Russia into a martial country whose only purpose can be conquest, and which makes no sense economically without further war
    The face of warfare is constantly changing, but the one thing that's proven really ineffective in Ukraine is pouring endless amounts of kids into the meat grinder, as has been pointed out downthread. In the game of rock, paper, scissors, infantry get smooshed to bits by mines, artillery, drones, tanks, everything really. So conscripting a bunch of teens who will be lucky to be taught how to point and shoot a rifle and dropping them into a war zone will be sub-optimal. Both for the war effort, and the country's demographics.

    There are no easy answers, but conscription isn't it. We'd be better off spending the money on a factory building knock off Boston Dynamics dog robots and sticking flamethrowers on their heads. Or air power. Massive, massive air power. Who knows. Just anything other than sending a bunch of badly trained infantry conscripts out to die.

    There are conversations to be had about what to do to contain Russian aggression, but Rishi's policy seems entirely designed to contain the aggression of reform voting pensioners. Nothing to do with what's actually in the best interests of national security.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    kle4 said:

    Oh god - I feel like I’m going to step into the firing line here, but I don’t think the idea is necessarily that.., bad?

    Dont get me wrong, it won’t make me vote Tory. Do I think the idea is worthwhile? Potentially. Do I think it’s a bit performative? Possibly. But do I think giving young people access to practical service/volunteering opportunities is a bad idea! Not really.

    I remain at your disposal to castigate at will.

    But do you think it politically savvy to announce it now in this way?
    Questionable. Likely to put off some people but attract others. If I’m honest I suspect it’s electorally neutral (at least when it comes to a core vote strategy). But it’s a tough one.
    I give the policy a week before it's removed.

    Sorry, reclarified.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Hmmm.

    Ignoring the bits after words 1-6, how is Putin going to get to Moldova?
    Transdniestr

    What we really need is a PB-er willing to go to this mad part of the world, and report back honestly
    To get to any part of Moldova you have to go through either Ukraine or Romania.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    GIN1138 said:

    The problem with Rishi going hard right to woo REFORM voters is that nobody believes it.

    If this was coming from Sue-Ellen, then fair enough, people would probably buy it, but from Rishi? Nobody really believes he believes in this shit.

    Rishi's best (only) strategy was to go for quiet, mild mannered competence, but he blew that long ago. Now he's just doubling down on all his mistakes.

    He got inflation down to just 2% last week
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    OT: Roland Rat in the steering wheel of a Ford Focus, which came from I know not where today.

    You will never unsee it.

    You've just ruined my car.
    If it's any consolation, I came across quite a cool Raleigh advert that I had not seen before. A small resistance to the IDS culture war.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oltX2dxHYDE
    Ah that's excellent!
    Whilst I've got you, I also came across this excellent video today for a campaign to Mind the Gaps in the Dumfries Cycle Network.

    Quite innovative, though I hope they have nobbled some insiders first.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdfw4Ofw_b8
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    Andy_JS said:

    Well if it's about Reform voters.

    It will be ECHR and death penalty almost certainly.

    Lefty former supreme court judge Jonathan Sumption is in favour of us leaving the ECHR.
    Can we have a citation please?
    There's a piece in Spectator but I don't have the link.

    iirc he said that very reluctantly he had come to conclusion that the overreach was now so unreformable that leaving was sadly only way.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Moldova isn't in NATO. Sadly for them.

    If he invades Finland he'll know about it.

    So you would send British troops to defend Finland? Where do these troops come from?

    Or you would immedately nuke Smolensk? Seriously, what is it? Because these are no longer sad reveries, they are real dilemmas. Putin is prepared to invade neighbouring states and he has turned Russia into a martial country whose only purpose can be conquest, and which makes no sense economically without further war
    The face of warfare is constantly changing, but the one thing that's proven really ineffective in Ukraine is pouring endless amounts of kids into the meat grinder, as has been pointed out downthread. In the game of rock, paper, scissors, infantry get smooshed to bits by mines, artillery, drones, tanks, everything really. So conscripting a bunch of teens who will be lucky to be taught how to point and shoot a rifle and dropping them into a war zone will be sub-optimal. Both for the war effort, and the country's demographics.

    There are no easy answers, but conscription isn't it. We'd be better off spending the money on a factory building knock off Boston Dynamics dog robots and sticking flamethrowers on their heads. Or air power. Massive, massive air power. Who knows. Just anything other than sending a bunch of badly trained infantry conscripts out to die.

    There are conversations to be had about what to do to contain Russian aggression, but Rishi's policy seems entirely designed to contain the aggression of reform voting pensioners. Nothing to do with what's actually in the best interests of national security.
    Building up the industrial base is also a necessity for a stronger military.

    As was achieved in the late 1930s:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_shadow_factories

    Its a lesson governments have forgotten even after the reminder of ppe and vaccine shortages during covid.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited May 25
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    OK PB, if Putin invades Moldova, what do we do? Sit tight and let them fend for themselves?

    Or send troops? I can see an argument for doing nothing, but that leads to.....

    What about Putin invading Finland or the Baltics or Romania?

    Again, sit tight, rely on our nukes?

    Arguable, but it gets a bit hairier, doesn't it?

    What about Poland, or Slovakia, or Croatia, or Austria, where do we say, OK we're not going to nuke Moscow, but we will send British troops?

    If we are entirely relying on our nuclear deterrent, that means


    1. We are withdrawing from NATO
    2. We need to spend BILLIONS on our nukes so we can make and maintain them ourselves and we don't have to rely on a newly unreliable America
    3. We can bid goodbye to any co-operation with mainland Europe, forever

    The alternative is we develop our conventional warfaring capability, and absent a huge increase in income tax to buy soldiers, that means some kind of national service. So Sunak has bizarrely alighted on the right policy, despite being a terrible electioneer, he's just punting it out in desperation, which looks bad

    Hmmm.

    Ignoring the bits after words 1-6, how is Putin going to get to Moldova?
    Transdniestr

    What we really need is a PB-er willing to go to this mad part of the world, and report back honestly
    The difficulty there is that there are only 1500 Russian troops in transdniestr.

    And iirc Moldova restricted previous rights for flights in and out, which have to go through an airport in Moldova (because Ukraine etc.).

    And the huge ammunition storage facility, with 20,000 tons of Soviet era munitions, is in the village of Cobasna (I looked up the name) under 2.5km from the Ukraine border.

    And he can't exactly use his Black See Fleet troop transports to bring in reinforcements via Romania or up the Danube, since most of them are now submarines. And the last few miles of the river are in Ukraine anyway.

This discussion has been closed.