Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".
The timing is odd. Unless Rishi knows something, what he has done is give his own side six fewer monthly pay cheques, and brought forward a Labour government, which by definition his side thinks is a bad thing.
If nothing else, I respect Sunak for diddling a bunch of lazy morons six months pay for doing practically nowt.
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
Which was the crazier decision. The snap election or announcing it in the rain with the pillock with the PA?
The latter by a country mile. Sunak had to have an election within the next 7 months and he was rapidly running out of choice - every date is pretty much as bad as every other.
Choosing to do the announcement out in the rain with a very audible protest going on was crass ineptitude.
Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.
For July or July 4? The demise of KC3 would push it to July 18th as the only black Swan that's possible I think
For July. £6,255 available at 1.01 which is actually rising, which is probably due to profit-taking (or someone very clever knows of an incoming comet).
Why oh why oh why did they announce it now. Here. Outside?
All the "you don't know what you'll get with Labour" stuff was rather let down by his own failure to look at a short-term weather forecast...
Or control the aural environment.
Bray is an irritating pillock, but that's not the point. If you can't deal with something as entirely predictable as that, then you're just politically incompetent.
A decent directional microphone would have cut the background noise out.
Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".
The timing is odd. Unless Rishi knows something, what he has done is give his own side six fewer monthly pay cheques, and brought forward a Labour government, which by definition his side thinks is a bad thing.
Rumour is that the threshold of No Confidence was close. BBC or Sky News mentioned this earlier.
Suspect that rumour is a case of Tory rebels embiggening their role. That is, I suspect, going to be an issue for Sunak in the campaign - the Five Families will be positioning themselves for a different election.
Fuck me it is STILL raining. Literally non stop for 48 hours
We had a glorious music festival in Dartmouth. Sort of thought about drizzling for 10 minutes. Didn't even need a brolly.
Rest of the time it was quite magnificent. Sunday especially, every act on the main stage was on top of their game. One burly late-middle aged guy from Essex came off stage, gave me a big hug, then blubbed. It was THAT beautiful.
Probably one of the best music festivals anywhere. And all free.
Still 1.01 on Betfair but presumably it ties up money for a month.
For July or July 4? The demise of KC3 would push it to July 18th as the only black Swan that's possible I think
For July. £6,255 available at 1.01 which is actually rising, which is probably due to profit-taking (or someone very clever knows of an incoming comet).
Rory Campbell (with Alistair Campbell) is doing a live podcast and says the texts he's getting from MPs and ministers are very much "We have no idea why he's doing this. Maybe he's worried about Farage coming back". They're all "Totally astonished".
The timing is odd. Unless Rishi knows something, what he has done is give his own side six fewer monthly pay cheques, and brought forward a Labour government, which by definition his side thinks is a bad thing.
Rumour is that the threshold of No Confidence was close. BBC or Sky News mentioned this earlier.
Suspect that rumour is a case of Tory rebels embiggening their role. That is, I suspect, going to be an issue for Sunak in the campaign - the Five Families will be positioning themselves for a different election.
You're probably correct about the embiggening - nevertheless it remains one of the more plausible theories for a remarkable decision.
So I'm assuming Survation have brought forward their Friday poll release to today so maybe they will now run a post announcement one? Still, I think Monday onwards we start to get the idea where the land lies with date certainty applied
Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.
And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:
And for those who like a bit of focus:
How did you do that?! I need to sharpen up.
Tis easy
Here's a picture quiz. A pint of election porter for anyone who can guess the name of this building, where I was recently. Nada googlissimo
Hmmm...a hangover from the Islamic toehold in Sicily? I think you've been there lately?
Close but not quite. But close!
It is - without exaggeration - one of the most astonishing buildings I have ever visited. And barely known?!
It is 900 years old, and it looks eerily new (as all great buildings do: they are ageless). It is pretty much perfect. The only buildings that match it for perfection - in my eyes - are Salisbury Cathedral and the Pantheon
It has occult associations, and it is visible for many miles around. It seems to serve no defensive purpose, and the spiral stairs go the wrong way if you want to fight an incoming enemy
Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.
It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful
His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
Very good analogy! Indeed perfect
Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run
We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh
Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
Polyblank? Really? I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name. Is it Cornish, I wonder?
I just checked. Apparently it could be derived from Old French for "white hair"
We also had a Mr Snoswell who taught Physics
We didn't have any amusingly named teachers that I remember. But some had an amusing appearance. Particularly together. The physics department had a man who was absurdly tall, thin, and ginger, a man who looked like a garden gnome, and a man who was the spit of Bruce Grobelaar. Seeing the three of them together never failed to be arresting.
My grandfather once had to have a friendly conversation with a young and rather naive man who thought he was going to teach at Telford Secretary Modern with the name of Ernest Pee.
He added an 'l' to that name...and as the bank manager, that made it all nice and official.
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
Personally I think it’s quite funny that Labour’s 1997 winning election song was playing.
And I’m afraid the headlines have been stolen from Sunak. Here’s the Telegraph:
And for those who like a bit of focus:
How did you do that?! I need to sharpen up.
Tis easy
Here's a picture quiz. A pint of election porter for anyone who can guess the name of this building, where I was recently. Nada googlissimo
Hmmm...a hangover from the Islamic toehold in Sicily? I think you've been there lately?
Name of the Rose it was on the Italian Euro coins
You are close enough without mentioning the name. Yes, it was on the 1 euro Italian coin. It is Castel del Monte in northern Puglia, Mindblowing place, one of the great buildings of the world, yet barely known outside Italy
Built by Frederick II, the Holy Roman Emperor and "Stupor Mundi". It has Muslim, Norman, Byzantine elements, arguments rage as to its purpose
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
What a shambles everything is.
How much would a private cataract operation cost?
Phone up a private hospital near your mum (or near wherever she will stay the following week) and ask them.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
That was fucking pathetic from Big Rish in the pissing rain. I fucking despise the little shit and wish him nothing but personal and professional ill fortune in the years ahead so we're off to a good start.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
That was fucking pathetic from Big Rish in the pissing rain. I fucking despise the little shit and wish him nothing but personal and professional ill fortune in the years ahead so we're off to a good start.
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
What a shambles everything is.
How much would a private cataract operation cost?
I’ve got to say that as far as my wife and myself are concerned the NHS is working well.
Sky saying inflation higher than expected, no prospect of interest rate cut for some time.
I reckon that, coupled with borrowing above forecast which likely means no room for tax cuts in Autumn Statement, is what has driven the date.
Finally, maybe, they know they can get a flight to Rwanda during the campaign?
Even if some Court says No, maybe they just send the flight anyway given they won't be in office to deal with whatever later happens.
If a flight does go and Starmer still then says he will cancel the scheme that is the sort of thing that could be a Black Swan.
I think it is much simpler.
Rishi was always waiting for inflation to come down, it didn't come down enough in April otherwise he'd have called it then. I think he concluded long ago it wasn't going to get any better.
I understand that the Tory Party are complaining to Ofcom that GB News covered Sunak's speech in full which gave an unfair advantage to the Labour Party
Opening polling salvo for the 2024 UK general election...
I got on Labour vote share 48-50% on BFE at 22/1 a while back with the intention of trading out when there was a bit more liquidity. Now I'm thinking of holding on to it as a shot to nothing.
Still don't think it will actually happen but I think this is one of those elections where the more we see of Sunak, the less people are going to like him. He's awkward and gaffe prone, and I think there will be a lot of tactical voting in Labour's favour.
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
Opening polling salvo for the 2024 UK general election...
I got on Labour vote share 48-50% on BFE at 22/1 a while back with the intention of trading out when there was a bit more liquidity. Now I'm thinking of holding on to it as a shot to nothing.
Still don't think it will actually happen but I think this is one of those elections where the more we see of Sunak, the less people are going to like him. He's awkward and gaffe prone, and I think there will be a lot of tactical voting in Labour's favour.
I think the strategy will be Labour saying as little as possible and being as dull as possible. They will bore us to death. Sunak will hang himself.
In his way he was actually worse than Johnson and Truss. Johnson was actually a genuine politician if a sociopath while Truss was madly entertaining with emphasis on mad. Sunak was a twice over-promoted spreadsheet wanker who should not have been let anywhere near real people.
Predictions: # 1 Labour 39%, Tories 34%. Labour short of a majority.
Given the collapse in living standards over the past couple of years, the lack of any positive reason to vote for the Conservatives, Rishi's disastrous approval ratings, SKS's bland, inoffensive centrism, the fact that they are trying for a fifth term and the four inch height differential in SKS's favour, that would be a stunning achievement by the government. If Labour can't win convincingly now, when can they?
I'd guesstimate a 10-14 point differential in the vote myself: Lab 43% Con 31% or so.
Tomorrow's MASSIVE ANNOUNCEMENT from Reform at 11am tomorrow.
Farage to lead the campaign?
Yes? or No?
Farage could be the difference between the Tories getting 150+ seats, maybe even 200+. or actually going extinct with 50 or fewer
It must be tempting for him to destroy them, and it will likely be his last exercise of power
And a July election leaves Nigel Farage time to get back across the Atlantic for some of that sweet, sweet American television money commenting on their election.
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
In his way he was actually worse than Johnson and Truss. Johnson was actually a genuine politician if a sociopath while Truss was madly entertaining with emphasis on mad. Sunak was a twice over-promoted spreadsheet wanker who should not have been let anywhere near real people.
Is "overpromoted" really worse than "crooked" or "bonkers"?
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
In his way he was actually worse than Johnson and Truss. Johnson was actually a genuine politician if a sociopath while Truss was madly entertaining with emphasis on mad. Sunak was a twice over-promoted spreadsheet wanker who should not have been let anywhere near real people.
In a way it appears to be more of a vanity escapade than Johnson's. Unless he knew he was about to be kebabbed by backbench Cons MPs it for all the world looks like he flounced in, wasn't up to the job, and flounced out again. At least BoJo really wanted the job rather than took it because it was passing.
I mean Plato did have a point about not paying the Guardians for running the state.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
Comments
And you're not on the wiki page, so the only possible explanation is that you're lying
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeenshire_North_and_Moray_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Choosing to do the announcement out in the rain with a very audible protest going on was crass ineptitude.
Someone decided not to use one.
Rest of the time it was quite magnificent. Sunday especially, every act on the main stage was on top of their game. One burly late-middle aged guy from Essex came off stage, gave me a big hug, then blubbed. It was THAT beautiful.
Probably one of the best music festivals anywhere. And all free.
A school holiday election should help the Scottish Tories, as pensioners don’t tend to take their holidays when the schools are on holiday.
The contrast was obvious.
Still, I think Monday onwards we start to get the idea where the land lies with date certainty applied
It is - without exaggeration - one of the most astonishing buildings I have ever visited. And barely known?!
It is 900 years old, and it looks eerily new (as all great buildings do: they are ageless). It is pretty much perfect. The only buildings that match it for perfection - in my eyes - are Salisbury Cathedral and the Pantheon
It has occult associations, and it is visible for many miles around. It seems to serve no defensive purpose, and the spiral stairs go the wrong way if you want to fight an incoming enemy
It’s time to get the buggers out. Move heaven and Earth, hold your nose if you have to, but they have to go.
Rory Stewart: "Surprise! I am 20 points behind and I am going to lose."
ROFL
He added an 'l' to that name...and as the bank manager, that made it all nice and official.
You'd never get away with that today though.
Post direct thus to avoid this issue:
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
What a shambles everything is.
How much would a private cataract operation cost?
Even this morning I thought there was no chance of this
Built by Frederick II, the Holy Roman Emperor and "Stupor Mundi". It has Muslim, Norman, Byzantine elements, arguments rage as to its purpose
https://www.italia.it/en/puglia/barletta-andria-trani/things-to-do/castel-del-monte-unesco
Farage to lead the campaign?
Yes?
or
No?
I reckon that, coupled with borrowing above forecast which likely means no room for tax cuts in Autumn Statement, is what has driven the date.
Finally, maybe, they know they can get a flight to Rwanda during the campaign?
Even if some Court says No, maybe they just send the flight anyway given they won't be in office to deal with whatever later happens.
If a flight does go and Starmer still then says he will cancel the scheme that is the sort of thing that could be a Black Swan.
WHY did he think this was a good idea
Is it because I lied when I was seventeen points behind in the polls?"
BUT..
You never know! 😈
We’re not voting for Rishi, though.
Rishi was always waiting for inflation to come down, it didn't come down enough in April otherwise he'd have called it then. I think he concluded long ago it wasn't going to get any better.
It must be tempting for him to destroy them, and it will likely be his last exercise of power
https://x.com/nick5michaels/status/1793328027201311197
Now the Tories care about GBeebies
I found it quite funny how upset he is
Still don't think it will actually happen but I think this is one of those elections where the more we see of Sunak, the less people are going to like him. He's awkward and gaffe prone, and I think there will be a lot of tactical voting in Labour's favour.
https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1793318392985768268
These minor things WILL MAKE NO DIFFERENCE
I didn't expect that.
I'd guesstimate a 10-14 point differential in the vote myself: Lab 43% Con 31% or so.
But the electorate is of course pretty volatile.
https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1793315605728129289
So the Sun accepts there are limitations on freedom of speech then?
will it be crazed fun or dead?
Do I go?
(Hint: copy image address)
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
I mean Plato did have a point about not paying the Guardians for running the state.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer