The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Dave is the best.
Certainly the best PM after Tony.
I know TSE loves Dave but anyone who has followed the Greenshill scandal would zip it on that front.
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
Shouldn't candidates be in their constituencies? How in holy hell will they get there?
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
I am not a candidate. I am however auditioning for the role of "Professor Sir John Curtice". As he is also auditioning for the same role I'm not optimistic, but you don't know until you try.
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
I'd have thought that's not very useful for the Tories. Most university towns are likely to vote Labour anyway, and students being distributed around the country to vote in their parents' constituencies will likely be mildly unhelpful for the blues on balance. There may be one or two blue university towns where it will help them a tiny bit - but I can't think of many that will be competitive this time.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
He only wants to have it here because it's called 'Excel'. His daughters Vlookup and Sumif may be present.
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
What a shambles everything is.
How much would a private cataract operation cost?
A friend had it done for £2,000
One or both?
Surely it's eye one, get one free?
Joking aside, the utter collapse of the NHS post Covid *is* going to have an effect on the Pensioner Vote, who you'd normally expect to vote Conservative. One or two people I know in their 70s have ended up going private for similar reasons, and while they aren't made of money, they are 'natural' Conservative voters. Not this time round, i suspect.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Dave is the best.
Certainly the best PM after Tony.
I know TSE loves Dave but anyone who has followed the Greenshill scandal would zip it on that front.
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
I'm not even aware of these allegations against Dave. And, just for the record, I have zero respect for Cameron and think he is wildly overrated, most of all by himself
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
@RochdalePioneers , you need to get your lot to do some proofreading. About half a dozen typos and one grammatical error on a very quick scan of that one webpage.
That's not counting "The candidate and campaign for the new constituency of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East will be ran by the Banffshire and Buchan Coast Liberal Democrats" - okay, the 'ran' could be excused as demotic but who will be controlling you, one wonders ...
But good luck. I can safely say I regret not being able to vote for you.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Dave is the best.
Certainly the best PM after Tony.
I know TSE loves Dave but anyone who has followed the Greenshill scandal would zip it on that front.
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
I'd have thought that's not very useful for the Tories. Most university towns are likely to vote Labour anyway, and students being distributed around the country to vote in their parents' constituencies will likely be mildly unhelpful for the blues on balance. There may be one or two blue university towns where it will help them a tiny bit - but I can't think of many that will be competitive this time.
Agree, but my thinking is that some Labour majorities may be smaller than expected as a result, and therefore money to be made . . .
Tomorrow's MASSIVE ANNOUNCEMENT from Reform at 11am tomorrow.
Farage to lead the campaign?
Yes? or No?
Farage could be the difference between the Tories getting 150+ seats, maybe even 200+. or actually going extinct with 50 or fewer
It must be tempting for him to destroy them, and it will likely be his last exercise of power
I seriously believe there is a path for him to take over the Conservative Party - the Canada option. Why wouldn't he try?
Laziness? Age? Likes the quiet life?
I certainly agree the Tories look ripe for a hard right takeover. They've tried being spinelessly Blairite and high tax/high spend with massive immigration, and look where it's ended for them
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Dave is the best.
Certainly the best PM after Tony.
I know TSE loves Dave but anyone who has followed the Greenshill scandal would zip it on that front.
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
Cameron must be pissed off that his jaunt as FOreign Secretary has come to a premature end
As a right wing voter I expect, based on all the reasonable evidence, that Labour will win and win well.
BUT..
You never know! 😈
Indeed. I hope for and expect a big Labour win but let's see.
Rain, Blair music etc, poor optics start for Rishi, but remember how Corbyn's ultimately stonking GE17 campaign kicked off with that chaotic manifesto launch.
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
I'd have thought that's not very useful for the Tories. Most university towns are likely to vote Labour anyway, and students being distributed around the country to vote in their parents' constituencies will likely be mildly unhelpful for the blues on balance. There may be one or two blue university towns where it will help them a tiny bit - but I can't think of many that will be competitive this time.
Yes, it's not going to be helpful for the Tories in my leafy suburb of a provincial city. While the Conservatives are unlikely to do so badly that Andrew Mitchell loses his seat, the presence of a large number of otherwise absent students makes it a little bit more likely.
I think calling the election for 4th July shows some realism is still alive in No.10.
Clearly they could see things would be getting worse for them as time goes by, so they had to go as early as possible, and so they picked the first date which still keeps the 'seecond half of the year' comments.
So they know they are losing, and will lose bigger overtime, and are putting the country first by not holding out any longer.
The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
That would be pretty hilarious - is there not a risk though that even where Tories are second to the SNP by some distance a Labour surge means they benefit (or prevents Tories benefiting)? It happened in 2017 the other way around (despite Labour actually going up elsewhere).
So the Sun accepts there are limitations on freedom of speech then?
Quite frankly it is an affront to any democracy when a deliberate act takes place to drown out any political speech
It would be true for Starmer and indeed Lammy when he was shouted down yesterday
It wasn't even that loud, and if Sunak is too stupid to think that with the weather and Labour's '97 anthem playing outside, it might have been a sensible move to do it inside, he deserves to be ridiculed.
"I have struggled in vain and I can bear it no longer. These past months have been a torment. I have fought against my better judgement, my family's expectations, the inferiority of the electorate's birth by rank and circumstance. All these things I am willing to put aside and ask you to end my agony."
"Do you think anything might tempt me to accept the election of the man who has ruined, perhaps for ever, the happiness of a most beloved country?"
As an American, allow me to say how touched (in more than one way?) and honored, that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, our own Mother Country, has just declared that the date of the 2024 general election is the 4th of July.
The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
That would be pretty hilarious - is there not a risk though that even where Tories are second to the SNP by some distance a Labour surge means they benefit (or prevents Tories benefiting)? It happened in 2017 the other way around (despite Labour actually going up elsewhere).
There's a very narrow window that the Tories end up with more seats in Scotland than the SNP.
The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
That would be pretty hilarious - is there not a risk though that even where Tories are second to the SNP by some distance a Labour surge means they benefit (or prevents Tories benefiting)? It happened in 2017 the other way around (despite Labour actually going up elsewhere).
There's a very narrow window that the Tories end up with more seats in Scotland than the SNP.
It may require that for the Tory party to retain 3rd largest party in Parliament.
So the Sun accepts there are limitations on freedom of speech then?
Quite frankly it is an affront to any democracy when a deliberate act takes place to drown out any political speech
It would be true for Starmer and indeed Lammy when he was shouted down yesterday
It wasn't even that loud, and if Sunak is too stupid to think that with the weather and Labour's '97 anthem playing outside, it might have been a sensible move to do it inside, he deserves to be ridiculed.
The argument it was an affront strikes me as similar to when parties moan about the ideologically opposed press being mean to them.
It happens, it's your job as politicians to overcome such a challenge. If you are defeated by a noisy heckler that's on you.
I think calling the election for 4th July shows some realism is still alive in No.10.
Clearly they could see things would be getting worse for them as time goes by, so they had to go as early as possible, and so they picked the first date which still keeps the 'seecond half of the year' comments.
So they know they are losing, and will lose bigger overtime, and are putting the country first by not holding out any longer.
I think the inflation figures this morning sealed it. A drop in interest rates is no longer as likely as it was. The logic behind holding on was that “things might get better”. This morning it was clear, at the least, that “things are less likely to get better”. So may as well get it over with in case they get worse.
It’s nothing to do with putting the country first.
The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
That would be pretty hilarious - is there not a risk though that even where Tories are second to the SNP by some distance a Labour surge means they benefit (or prevents Tories benefiting)? It happened in 2017 the other way around (despite Labour actually going up elsewhere).
There's a very narrow window that the Tories end up with more seats in Scotland than the SNP.
I'm pretty bullish on SNP prospects - they do face several challenges which could see a dramatic fall, but I think they'll avoid the worst possibilities.
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
I'd have thought that's not very useful for the Tories. Most university towns are likely to vote Labour anyway, and students being distributed around the country to vote in their parents' constituencies will likely be mildly unhelpful for the blues on balance. There may be one or two blue university towns where it will help them a tiny bit - but I can't think of many that will be competitive this time.
The word on the street in Canterbury was that it would go blue again last time because of the Christmas holidays. Made little difference in the end.
Tomorrow's MASSIVE ANNOUNCEMENT from Reform at 11am tomorrow.
Farage to lead the campaign?
Yes? or No?
Farage could be the difference between the Tories getting 150+ seats, maybe even 200+. or actually going extinct with 50 or fewer
It must be tempting for him to destroy them, and it will likely be his last exercise of power
And a July election leaves Nigel Farage time to get back across the Atlantic for some of that sweet, sweet American television money commenting on their election.
He'd have to miss the first election debate in June, though.
The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
That would be pretty hilarious - is there not a risk though that even where Tories are second to the SNP by some distance a Labour surge means they benefit (or prevents Tories benefiting)? It happened in 2017 the other way around (despite Labour actually going up elsewhere).
There's a very narrow window that the Tories end up with more seats in Scotland than the SNP.
I think calling the election for 4th July shows some realism is still alive in No.10.
Clearly they could see things would be getting worse for them as time goes by, so they had to go as early as possible, and so they picked the first date which still keeps the 'seecond half of the year' comments.
So they know they are losing, and will lose bigger overtime, and are putting the country first by not holding out any longer.
I think the inflation figures this morning sealed it. A drop in interest rates is no longer as likely as it was. The logic behind holding on was that “things might get better”. This morning it was clear, at the least, that “things are less likely to get better”. So may as well get it over with in case they get worse.
It’s nothing to do with putting the country first.
Also: wonder if there was a bit of pique at the Cabinet mixing his student plans.
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
I am not a candidate. I am however auditioning for the role of "Professor Sir John Curtice". As he is also auditioning for the same role I'm not optimistic, but you don't know until you try.
Good Luck
I found the just the idea stressful. ( I was a nominated candidate until a couple of months ago, but reasons )
Forward the light brigade! Was there a man dismayed? Not though the soldier knew Someone had blundered Theirs not to make reply Theirs not to reason why Theirs but to do and die Into the valley of death Rode the three hundred*
*After discounting retirees
It’s close but I am not so sure that the charge of the Light Brigade was as obviously suicidal as this.
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
Well I wasn't been serious! Someone needs to update the wiki page, and a) I can't be arsed and b) Even if I was, I don't know @RochdalePioneers real name
The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
That would be pretty hilarious - is there not a risk though that even where Tories are second to the SNP by some distance a Labour surge means they benefit (or prevents Tories benefiting)? It happened in 2017 the other way around (despite Labour actually going up elsewhere).
There's a very narrow window that the Tories end up with more seats in Scotland than the SNP.
Tomorrow's MASSIVE ANNOUNCEMENT from Reform at 11am tomorrow.
Farage to lead the campaign?
Yes? or No?
Farage could be the difference between the Tories getting 150+ seats, maybe even 200+. or actually going extinct with 50 or fewer
It must be tempting for him to destroy them, and it will likely be his last exercise of power
I seriously believe there is a path for him to take over the Conservative Party - the Canada option. Why wouldn't he try?
Laziness? Age? Likes the quiet life?
I certainly agree the Tories look ripe for a hard right takeover. They've tried being spinelessly Blairite and high tax/high spend with massive immigration, and look where it's ended for them
The more they attribute their loss to not being hard right enough, and if they perceive it is due to Farage/Reform that is highly likely, the more the party will seek to reshape into a Faragite form regardless of whether he personally seeks to join it or take it over.
From Farage's perspective he should absolutely stand and claim to want to play a big role in politics - he need not deliver on that, he just needs to show some leg to the Tories pining to vote for him and maximise the damage to the Tories, and either way his brand is increased, and best case scenario the Tories become Reform.
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
What a shambles everything is.
How much would a private cataract operation cost?
Ask her GP or optom to refer her to one of the private contractors doing NHS work and she will be done in weeks in most English regions.
Pretty obvious he just wants out. He knows he and his predecessors have made the country a pretty rubbish place to live so time to move on to somewhere more comfortable
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
I was one of the very few people - wasn't posting here then so you will have to take my word for it but I bet on a Hung Parliament - who said May would lose her majority.
I think a Hung Parliament is very possible - but that still means SKS as PM.
I think calling the election for 4th July shows some realism is still alive in No.10.
Clearly they could see things would be getting worse for them as time goes by, so they had to go as early as possible, and so they picked the first date which still keeps the 'seecond half of the year' comments.
So they know they are losing, and will lose bigger overtime, and are putting the country first by not holding out any longer.
I think the inflation figures this morning sealed it. A drop in interest rates is no longer as likely as it was. The logic behind holding on was that “things might get better”. This morning it was clear, at the least, that “things are less likely to get better”. So may as well get it over with in case they get worse.
It’s nothing to do with putting the country first.
Also: wonder if there was a bit of pique at the Cabinet mixing his student plans.
Maybe. There may also be some truth in the rumour that the magic number of letters to Old Lady Brady was imminent.
Labour could still lose this election but you wouldn’t think it watching him this evening.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
How often does that occur?
And with hindsight we can see the positives Corbyn had and negatives May had - what are the potential weakpoints for Labour that could be exploited, and what strengths have the Tories got to draw on?
Anyone who thinks you can just “move it inside” when “it” is a speech like this one has never done events with the media. Pressing on, and getting wet, is the least worst option. It gets called a damp squib anyway if you run away from the rain.
The error is not planning to do it indoors flanked by a million flags and cheering fans from the off, all because doing it outside Number 10 is tradition.
But really, they haven’t used the new briefing room enough. They could have made it synonymous with all PM briefings and made heckling a thing of the past. For reasons known only to them, they chose not to.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Dave is the best.
Certainly the best PM after Tony.
I know TSE loves Dave but anyone who has followed the Greenshill scandal would zip it on that front.
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
Cameron must be pissed off that his jaunt as FOreign Secretary has come to a premature end
Wes Streeting has let slip another of Labour's attack lines: if the Tories get back in it won't be Sunak as PM, it will be Braverman or Patel. Interesting strategy.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
There were some predictions she'd win a majority of more than 200. The campaign can change everything, of one is at least halfway decent and the other is catastrophically bad.
I couldn't tell you which campaign was more likely to be catastrophically bad, but it wouldn't surprise me either way. What if, this time, it's the party that starts twenty points behind that has the catastrophic campaign?
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Dave is the best.
Certainly the best PM after Tony.
I know TSE loves Dave but anyone who has followed the Greenshill scandal would zip it on that front.
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
Cameron must be pissed off that his jaunt as FOreign Secretary has come to a premature end
He's had time to refill his virtual rolodex, job done.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
Sure there can be swings in an election campaign, but they don't have to go the way of 2017. That was a swing against the party in power not to it, and largely because May was a dreadful campaigner. Sunak is possibly a worse one.
An extinction level event is more likely than a Tory victory.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
Time for some tight cropped photos of the crowds I think.
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
I'd have thought that's not very useful for the Tories. Most university towns are likely to vote Labour anyway, and students being distributed around the country to vote in their parents' constituencies will likely be mildly unhelpful for the blues on balance. There may be one or two blue university towns where it will help them a tiny bit - but I can't think of many that will be competitive this time.
Yes, it's not going to be helpful for the Tories in my leafy suburb of a provincial city. While the Conservatives are unlikely to do so badly that Andrew Mitchell loses his seat, the presence of a large number of otherwise absent students makes it a little bit more likely.
Indeed, and the key thing is that a lot of them will be coming back from Manchester or wherever, where Labour simply don't require the votes. There are a handful of blue seats with high term time student populations - Bournemouth West for example, and maybe it will help them a bit there. But it's unusual.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
NOW is time (high time!) to fund, acquire, equip, etc., etc. the long-awaited PB GE BATTLEBUS!!
Imagine cruising in comfort on the highways and byways of Britain, from one marginal to another, ensconced in your seat (or lashed to the roof depending on medical & road conditions) debating the merits & demerits of AI-drafted election manifestos and candidate addresses!
Please state YOUR psephological preferences re: target destinations and routing.
Personally enjoy witnessing a cabinet minister getting routed somewhere.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
There were some predictions she'd win a majority of more than 200. The campaign can change everything, of one is at least halfway decent and the other is catastrophically bad.
I couldn't tell you which campaign was more likely to be catastrophically bad, but it wouldn't surprise me either way. What if, this time, it's the party that starts twenty points behind that has the catastrophic campaign?
The media is desperate for a come back narrative. Will do anything to boost it.
Wes Streeting has let slip another of Labour's attack lines: if the Tories get back in it won't be Sunak as PM, it will be Braverman or Patel. Interesting strategy.
The kudos of winning from here wouldn't be insignificant, but given the Tory tribes a very, very real prospect.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
I suspect turnout will be well down for other reasons, so it may be hard to tell.
Could go lower than 2001, only needs to drop 8%, and I can see a lot of Tories staying home even if they don't vote Labour.
Wes Streeting has let slip another of Labour's attack lines: if the Tories get back in it won't be Sunak as PM, it will be Braverman or Patel. Interesting strategy.
It's a fairly obvious line. The Tories changed their leader twice in this Parliament, so completely reasonable to say "you're not voting for Sunak".
It does reveal, though, that Labour don't feel Sunak is a liability for the Tories, rather that the Tories are a liability for him. That makes some intuitive sense, but isn't entirely where the polls are.
Will be quite a few local parties needing to rush selections. Round my way, Lab have not selected for Bracknell and Con haven't selected to replace Tezza in Maidenhead.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Wes Streeting has let slip another of Labour's attack lines: if the Tories get back in it won't be Sunak as PM, it will be Braverman or Patel. Interesting strategy.
The kudos of winning from here wouldn't be insignificant, but given the Tory tribes a very, very real prospect.
Hopefully Labour are clever enough not to say “Boris will be back” and win the Tories votes…
That was fucking pathetic from Big Rish in the pissing rain. I fucking despise the little shit and wish him nothing but personal and professional ill fortune in the years ahead so we're off to a good start.
Shall we put you down as a Don't know?
I always thought "I'll put you down as a maybe." sounded funnier.
For a website that requires technical ability to use, it's staggering that nobody can figure out how to embed images.
OK, so how do you embed an image on your hard disk? Without having to upload it to a third-party site?
Why not just upload it to Google Drive, Apple iCloud and share it from there?
You do realise that by uploading the image from your hard drive you are uploading it to a third party site? Most likely an S3 bucket which all of the above use (or an equivalent of) anyway?
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
There were some predictions she'd win a majority of more than 200. The campaign can change everything, of one is at least halfway decent and the other is catastrophically bad.
I couldn't tell you which campaign was more likely to be catastrophically bad, but it wouldn't surprise me either way. What if, this time, it's the party that starts twenty points behind that has the catastrophic campaign?
The media is desperate for a come back narrative. Will do anything to boost it.
As we saw in London, however, the more the media try to claim it's a "close race", the less close it becomes. The only beneficiaries from a "close race" narrative will be Labour as they will be able to get their vote out. If it's a "foregone conclusion" as in 2001 for example, Labour voters may be complacent and stay at home.
Khan's victory was assured as soon as the media started claiming Hall had a chance of success.
I'm astonished Sunak has called an election now. I don't know what he's thinking other than he's just had enough.
I think he's given up to be honest, I actually feel quite sorry for him. His heart doesn't seem like it is in it. I've felt the same before leaving a couple of previous roles.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
Thete's a significant difference between a Government going into an election with a big lead and an Opposition going into an election with a big lead.
In 1997, the Conservatives turned a 21 point deficit into a 12.5 point deficit but polling then was much less sophisticated than it is now.
Until we get the results we don’t know how much the Conservatives can claw back, or if they slip further. The polls do suggest a pretty grim prospect for the government, and I suspect they will lose by some distance but I’m less convinced that the outcome will be epoch defining.
Wes Streeting has let slip another of Labour's attack lines: if the Tories get back in it won't be Sunak as PM, it will be Braverman or Patel. Interesting strategy.
It's a fairly obvious line. The Tories changed their leader twice in this Parliament, so completely reasonable to say "you're not voting for Sunak".
It does reveal, though, that Labour don't feel Sunak is a liability for the Tories, rather that the Tories are a liability for him. That makes some intuitive sense, but isn't entirely where the polls are.
Or at least that they don't think Sunak is the Tories' biggest liability.
They have a lot to choose from though, so it is hard to rank the liabilities.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
I don't believe your address is checked as part of the voter ID checks - just your face. IIRC your address is not on a Blue Badge which is a qualifying ID.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
How often does that occur?
And with hindsight we can see the positives Corbyn had and negatives May had - what are the potential weakpoints for Labour that could be exploited, and what strengths have the Tories got to draw on?
May lost because (among other things) there were two terrorist outrages during the campaign, after she had got rid of 10,000 police officers. The point is, black swans can happen.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
Comments
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
How in holy hell will they get there?
Boris: piss up at number 10
Liz: piss poor in number 10
Rishi: piss wet through outside number 10
Joking aside, the utter collapse of the NHS post Covid *is* going to have an effect on the Pensioner Vote, who you'd normally expect to vote Conservative. One or two people I know in their 70s have ended up going private for similar reasons, and while they aren't made of money, they are 'natural' Conservative voters. Not this time round, i suspect.
That's not counting "The candidate and campaign for the new constituency of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East will be ran by the Banffshire and Buchan Coast Liberal Democrats" - okay, the 'ran' could be excused as demotic but who will be controlling you, one wonders ...
But good luck. I can safely say I regret not being able to vote for you.
It would be true for Starmer and indeed Lammy when he was shouted down yesterday
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greensill_scandal
I certainly agree the Tories look ripe for a hard right takeover. They've tried being spinelessly Blairite and high tax/high spend with massive immigration, and look where it's ended for them
Well. Well done you.
Rain, Blair music etc, poor optics start for Rishi, but remember how Corbyn's ultimately stonking GE17 campaign kicked off with that chaotic manifesto launch.
Clearly they could see things would be getting worse for them as time goes by, so they had to go as early as possible, and so they picked the first date which still keeps the 'seecond half of the year' comments.
So they know they are losing, and will lose bigger overtime, and are putting the country first by not holding out any longer.
"I have struggled in vain and I can bear it no longer. These past months have been a torment. I have fought against my better judgement, my family's expectations, the inferiority of the electorate's birth by rank and circumstance. All these things I am willing to put aside and ask you to end my agony."
"Do you think anything might tempt me to accept the election of the man who has ruined, perhaps for ever, the happiness of a most beloved country?"
Happy Independence Day 2024!
It happens, it's your job as politicians to overcome such a challenge. If you are defeated by a noisy heckler that's on you.
It’s nothing to do with putting the country first.
I found the just the idea stressful.
( I was a nominated candidate until a couple of months ago, but reasons )
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered
Theirs not to make reply
Theirs not to reason why
Theirs but to do and die
Into the valley of death
Rode the three hundred*
*After discounting retirees
It’s close but I am not so sure that the charge of the Light Brigade was as obviously suicidal as this.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
From Farage's perspective he should absolutely stand and claim to want to play a big role in politics - he need not deliver on that, he just needs to show some leg to the Tories pining to vote for him and maximise the damage to the Tories, and either way his brand is increased, and best case scenario the Tories become Reform.
I think a Hung Parliament is very possible - but that still means SKS as PM.
Labour could still lose this election but you wouldn’t think it watching him this evening.
And with hindsight we can see the positives Corbyn had and negatives May had - what are the potential weakpoints for Labour that could be exploited, and what strengths have the Tories got to draw on?
The error is not planning to do it indoors flanked by a million flags and cheering fans from the off, all because doing it outside Number 10 is tradition.
But really, they haven’t used the new briefing room enough. They could have made it synonymous with all PM briefings and made heckling a thing of the past. For reasons known only to them, they chose not to.
I couldn't tell you which campaign was more likely to be catastrophically bad, but it wouldn't surprise me either way. What if, this time, it's the party that starts twenty points behind that has the catastrophic campaign?
In 1997, the Conservatives turned a 21 point deficit into a 12.5 point deficit but polling then was much less sophisticated than it is now.
An extinction level event is more likely than a Tory victory.
On no its a Kia
Fuck off and get in the sea.
As for Labour!
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
Imagine cruising in comfort on the highways and byways of Britain, from one marginal to another, ensconced in your seat (or lashed to the roof depending on medical & road conditions) debating the merits & demerits of AI-drafted election manifestos and candidate addresses!
Please state YOUR psephological preferences re: target destinations and routing.
Personally enjoy witnessing a cabinet minister getting routed somewhere.
As to the rest of the post…seek help.
Could go lower than 2001, only needs to drop 8%, and I can see a lot of Tories staying home even if they don't vote Labour. And probably lots of happy texts from Tory candidates for the 2025 local elections.
@RichJolly
Watford managers in Tory premierships in the last 14 years.
David Cameron: 9
Theresa May: 3
Boris Johnson: 9
Liz Truss: 2
Rishi Sunak: 4
It does reveal, though, that Labour don't feel Sunak is a liability for the Tories, rather that the Tories are a liability for him. That makes some intuitive sense, but isn't entirely where the polls are.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
I'm astonished Sunak has called an election now. I don't know what he's thinking other than he's just had enough.
David Cameron: 1
Theresa May: 1
Boris Johnson: 1
Liz Truss: 2
Rishi Sunak: 1
Puts it all in a very different light.
You do realise that by uploading the image from your hard drive you are uploading it to a third party site? Most likely an S3 bucket which all of the above use (or an equivalent of) anyway?
Khan's victory was assured as soon as the media started claiming Hall had a chance of success.
They have a lot to choose from though, so it is hard to rank the liabilities.