7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
How often does that occur?
And with hindsight we can see the positives Corbyn had and negatives May had - what are the potential weakpoints for Labour that could be exploited, and what strengths have the Tories got to draw on?
May lost because (among other things there were two terrorist outrages during the campaign, after she had got rid of 10,000 police officers. The point is, black swans can happen.
But the circumstances still need to be right for them to have significant effect, and the parties able to take advantage.
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
Are satirical shows off for election periods? Genuine question, but I didn't think they were. They'd probably not have a politician on one, but they are comedy programmes (intermittently for HIGNFY, but still) rather than news so the fundamental broadcasting rules don't change.
In practical terms they are harder to do as pre-recorded so you're quickly behind the news cycle.
7 years ago, Theresa May was going into an election expecting anything up to a 100 seat majority.
The campaign killed that.
How often does that occur?
And with hindsight we can see the positives Corbyn had and negatives May had - what are the potential weakpoints for Labour that could be exploited, and what strengths have the Tories got to draw on?
May lost because (among other things there were two terrorist outrages during the campaign, after she had got rid of 10,000 police officers. The point is, black swans can happen.
I think Starmer will be dreadful in a campaign. I also think Sunak is likely to be worse. Voters will be choosing the tallest dwarf.
The campaign is when the Tories will miss Boris (might tell us something about the leadership contest) and the beginning of the end for Starmer.
Good evening everyone. Not been on here much lately as been very busy IRL, but had to comment to say how shocked I am that we now know the date of the countries Independence Day from the Tories. I was convinced it wouldn't be before October, if not before January, but I guess Sunak decided he'd rather spend the summer in America than Downing Street.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
Well, they'll have to hang together or they'll hang separately. Personal votes don't count in an election like this.
As an American, allow me to say how touched (in more than one way?) and honored, that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, our own Mother Country, has just declared that the date of the 2024 general election is the 4th of July.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
I don't believe your address is checked as part of the voter ID checks - just your face. IIRC your address is not on a Blue Badge which is a qualifying ID.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
He only wants to have it here because it's called 'Excel'. His daughters Vlookup and Sumif may be present.
The fact that we call him a spreadsheet nerd and a post about him and spreadsheets gets eight likes shows who the real nerds are.
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
Brighton Pavilion is a largely working class (council estate) area with a large student population and former MP with a personal vote. Labour have picked a local candidate and the Greens a London carpetbagger prominent national figure.
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
That's why i am hoping they both fail miserably, time we broke the consensus
Tomorrow's MASSIVE ANNOUNCEMENT from Reform at 11am tomorrow.
Farage to lead the campaign?
Yes? or No?
Farage could be the difference between the Tories getting 150+ seats, maybe even 200+. or actually going extinct with 50 or fewer
It must be tempting for him to destroy them, and it will likely be his last exercise of power
I seriously believe there is a path for him to take over the Conservative Party - the Canada option. Why wouldn't he try?
Laziness? Age? Likes the quiet life?
I certainly agree the Tories look ripe for a hard right takeover. They've tried being spinelessly Blairite and high tax/high spend with massive immigration, and look where it's ended for them
The more they attribute their loss to not being hard right enough, and if they perceive it is due to Farage/Reform that is highly likely, the more the party will seek to reshape into a Faragite form regardless of whether he personally seeks to join it or take it over.
From Farage's perspective he should absolutely stand and claim to want to play a big role in politics - he need not deliver on that, he just needs to show some leg to the Tories pining to vote for him and maximise the damage to the Tories, and either way his brand is increased, and best case scenario the Tories become Reform.
What odds on the Leeanderthal Man being next Tory leader?
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
Brighton Pavilion is a largely working class (council estate) area with a large student population and former MP with a personal vote. Labour have picked a local candidate and the Greens a London carpetbagger prominent national figure.
So your suggestion is the fact it's outside term time will help Labour there? I suspect you're right. Berry not being local presumably won't bother students that much (neither are they) and Greens making a hash of running the Council will similarly have passed them by.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
That's why i am hoping they both fail miserably, time we broke the consensus
It didn’t go so well when we had a Coalition last time. At least for the junior party.
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
That's why i am hoping they both fail miserably, time we broke the consensus
It didn’t go so well when we had a Coalition last time. At least for the junior party.
I dont want either of them, or the Greens or LDs. They are all appalling.
Any polls published today wouldn't reflect the election being called, I think. Tories will hope Sunak gets a bit of credit for being front foot. I'm not sure, but I do know they'd need to have asked the question after 5pm today - anything before that is just the same as a poll yesterday.
Blimey, what a relief. I thought we were stuck with this lot until Christmas.
There are some moments when Bostrom's argument that we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation seem not only plausible but the only possible explanation for the politics we see in front of our eyes. Rishi's speech was one of those moments.
As an American, allow me to say how touched (in more than one way?) and honored, that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, our own Mother Country, has just declared that the date of the 2024 general election is the 4th of July.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
If it is a 2001 result (that is, a landslide but on low turnout), that might still be seen as positive from the Tories as it means they need to just get people to show up in 4-5 years to get a decent result, and would be doing better than 1997.
If it is a 2005 result I think the Tories will be ecstatic.
So what odds on leaving the ECHR (or offering a referendum) being in the Tory manifesto?
Very high. They need something to promise, what else sounds compelling? Tax cuts when it can be afforded or whatever is nice, but nothing new as a promise.
I expect just about every polling company started a new poll at 5pm today with a new question related to the specific 4 July date.
I'm not sure who is quick enough to publish today. But I assume we'll get a flurry by the weekend.
How will firms that adjust for swingback, e.g. assuming don't knows follow 2019 vote, adjust their methodology over the course of the campaign? I see no reason to change tomorrow but I would on the eve of the vote.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
He only wants to have it here because it's called 'Excel'. His daughters Vlookup and Sumif may be present.
The fact that we call him a spreadsheet nerd and a post about him and spreadsheets gets eight likes shows who the real nerds are.
People debating politics on the internet are nerds shocker.
Next bear shits in the woods shocker.
Now since its a slow news day, shall we talk about our favourite sci fi show instead?
The commentariat is scathing in its assessment of Sunak's performance today. The D:Ream 1997 song, Sunak drenched and pathetic, the speech sounded like a resignation, tory MP whatsapp groups denouncing the PM, swathes of MPs are going to step down. Consensus is: the tories are in no state to run a meaningful campaign. According to the times podcast sunak looks like "a fool".... wow.
As far as I am concerned Sunak has done the right thing, and Starmer is about to face real scrutiny
As for Sunak's reasons I would suggest his party was ill disciplined and disintegrating, with further defections on the cards, and by calling the election this ends as indeed I suspect will Reforms chances
Time for the conservatives to go into opposition and decide just who they are, while labour take on extraordinary challenges which will test just how many unpopular decisions they are going to have to make
Any polls published today wouldn't reflect the election being called, I think. Tories will hope Sunak gets a bit of credit for being front foot. I'm not sure, but I do know they'd need to have asked the question after 5pm today - anything before that is just the same as a poll yesterday.
Fridays Techne and WeThink will be Fieldwork tomorrow I believe
Edit- Techne straddles today tomorrow, WeThink will be after election called Tomorrow's YouGov will be yesterday and today I think
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
That's why i am hoping they both fail miserably, time we broke the consensus
It didn’t go so well when we had a Coalition last time. At least for the junior party.
I dont want either of them, or the Greens or LDs. They are all appalling.
To be honest, I've had you pinned as a Galloway chap for a while now wooliedyed.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
I don't believe your address is checked as part of the voter ID checks - just your face. IIRC your address is not on a Blue Badge which is a qualifying ID.
Correct. There's no address on my ancient person's bus pass, which counts as valid ID.
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
Well I wasn't been serious! Someone needs to update the wiki page, and a) I can't be arsed and b) Even if I was, I don't know @RochdalePioneers real name
It will be sorted! I don't do Wiki. Or the web page. Has caught us on the hop TBH.
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
That's why i am hoping they both fail miserably, time we broke the consensus
It didn’t go so well when we had a Coalition last time. At least for the junior party.
I dont want either of them, or the Greens or LDs. They are all appalling.
Round here we have no other choices. No-one’s talking about bringing back the Wulfingas(?).
University terms end mid to late June. Election held when most students have returned home.
Can those wiser than me speculate on likely impact on (lack of) student vote in university towns? Possible betting implications?
Brighton Pavilion is a largely working class (council estate) area with a large student population and former MP with a personal vote. Labour have picked a local candidate and the Greens a London carpetbagger prominent national figure.
So your suggestion is the fact it's outside term time will help Labour there? I suspect you're right. Berry not being local presumably won't bother students that much (neither are they) and Greens making a hash of running the Council will similarly have passed them by.
The local residents are well aware of the hash the Greens made of the local council and turfed them out - with a majority Labour council for the first time in nigh on a quarter of a century. They’ve got off to an ok start which will help.
I think Starmer will be dreadful in a campaign. I also think Sunak is likely to be worse. Voters will be choosing the tallest dwarf.
Interesting parallels with the US election in that respect.
I find Starmer fairly unobjectionable, and Sunak a bit irritating, but I am curious about in what specific ways people think each will be bad. Eg Do you think Starmer will be too robotically on message, or fail to connect with the electorate etc?
Anyone who thinks you can just “move it inside” when “it” is a speech like this one has never done events with the media. Pressing on, and getting wet, is the least worst option. It gets called a damp squib anyway if you run away from the rain.
The error is not planning to do it indoors flanked by a million flags and cheering fans from the off, all because doing it outside Number 10 is tradition.
But really, they haven’t used the new briefing room enough. They could have made it synonymous with all PM briefings and made heckling a thing of the past. For reasons known only to them, they chose not to.
Mostly they really want the image of the door of Number 10 in the background. That's the thing that lends gravitas to the occasion.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
It doesn't even do that!
There's no way for anyone at the polling station to verify or validate the ID. It's completely useless, but doing anything better would increase the cost of running an election by a factor of ten (or more).
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
Can anyone get a handle on the legislative washup, yet?
What are we losing and what are we keeping?
I make it they have perhaps just over 2 weeks still to run at most, since there are 43 days to election date.
Thanks for the header, @TSE - the D:ream one is delightful. Why did he name a band after 500 envelopes?
Parliament prorogued the day after tomorrow and dissolved a week tomorrow.
jack pannell @jack_pannnell So Sunak has called a general election for July 4. Below are the bills still in parliament that will have to pass by dissolution on May 30. Some have quite a way to go, and some will prove very contentious. We may see quite a few dropped in the coming days. #generalelection
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
It doesn't even do that!
There's no way for anyone at the polling stage to verify or validate the ID. It's completely useless, but doing anything better would increase the cost of running an election by a factor of ten (or more).
Does the proof of address not come in at Registration stage?
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
That's why i am hoping they both fail miserably, time we broke the consensus
It didn’t go so well when we had a Coalition last time. At least for the junior party.
I dont want either of them, or the Greens or LDs. They are all appalling.
Round here we have no other choices. No-one’s talking about bringing back the Wulfingas(?).
I'll see who else stands here and the best manifesto gets my vote. If no option but the 4 I will put in a write in
So what odds on leaving the ECHR (or offering a referendum) being in the Tory manifesto?
Long - why would you choose to run on a cause that was difficult, something of a long-term liability, and has very limited support.
Think of it like the relatively successful Susan Hall campaign in London. Pick something that's pure party id; doesn't matter that it's not practical because you're going to lose, so you'll never have to do it for real. But you keep the core vote together. The result is a disaster, but not fatal.
The commentariat is scathing in its assessment of Sunak's performance today. The D:Ream 1997 song, Sunak drenched and pathetic, the speech sounded like a resignation, tory MP whatsapp groups denouncing the PM, swathes of MPs are going to step down. Consensus is: the tories are in no state to run a meaningful campaign. According to the times podcast sunak looks like "a fool".... wow.
I can only imagine Rishi has one eye on sales of his memoirs, which we must now all buy to find out why he called the election for this date and in this way.
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
I see your “our private polls say something different” and raise you a “there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day”.
I think Starmer will be dreadful in a campaign. I also think Sunak is likely to be worse. Voters will be choosing the tallest dwarf.
Interesting parallels with the US election in that respect.
The comparison with the US only goes so far. Whatever you think of them, Biden is a seasoned politician with decades of campaigning experience, and Trump is one of the great personalities of the century.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
He only wants to have it here because it's called 'Excel'. His daughters Vlookup and Sumif may be present.
The fact that we call him a spreadsheet nerd and a post about him and spreadsheets gets eight likes shows who the real nerds are.
People debating politics on the internet are nerds shocker.
Next bear shits in the woods shocker.
Now since its a slow news day, shall we talk about our favourite sci fi show instead?
I think Starmer will be dreadful in a campaign. I also think Sunak is likely to be worse. Voters will be choosing the tallest dwarf.
Interesting parallels with the US election in that respect.
I find Starmer fairly unobjectionable, and Sunak a bit irritating, but I am curious about in what specific ways people think each will be bad. Eg Do you think Starmer will be too robotically on message, or fail to connect with the electorate etc?
Listening to the public interviewed post the election announcement they seem to suggest a plague on all your houses
I really do believe that our politicians are at rock bottom in the publics eyes
I think Starmer will be dreadful in a campaign. I also think Sunak is likely to be worse. Voters will be choosing the tallest dwarf.
Interesting parallels with the US election in that respect.
I find Starmer fairly unobjectionable, and Sunak a bit irritating, but I am curious about in what specific ways people think each will be bad. Eg Do you think Starmer will be too robotically on message, or fail to connect with the electorate etc?
The main concern with Starmer is the Labour party, and the principal worry with Sunak is the Tory party.
In both cases they are more than simple placeholders, but a great attraction to their parties in having them up front is that they are neutral figureheads.
At least the Tories 'starve the PIP claimants' shit won't go anywhere now
Leaving aside the possibility of the Tories winning, Labour won't be much better, and could potentially be worse. They were the ones who introduced ATOS after all.
That's why i am hoping they both fail miserably, time we broke the consensus
It didn’t go so well when we had a Coalition last time. At least for the junior party.
I dont want either of them, or the Greens or LDs. They are all appalling.
To be honest, I've had you pinned as a Galloway chap for a while now wooliedyed.
The last time I met Call Me Dave™ was on a day even wetter than today, at an unveiling on a village green in the constituency. He looked absolutely unflappable. A complete contrast to Sunak looking like a drowned rat outside number 10.
Dave is the best.
Certainly the best PM after Tony.
I know TSE loves Dave but anyone who has followed the Greenshill scandal would zip it on that front.
Awful man. And a nasty piece of work when it came to trying to shut down free speech about it.
Funny innit? Leon and others object to a guy with a megaphone but don’t mind when a privileged Etonian tries to gag publication of a book exposing what a devious and dodgy person he has been over Greenshill.
Not the kind and gentle hoody hugger of his Steve Hilton years. I think he just follows the latest influencer he comes into contact with. Seems like the latest was a night out with Ben Gvir and Bibi
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
I see your “our private polls say something different” and raise you a “there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day”.
At some point in the campaign the LibDems will brief journalists that "our private polling shows we're only a few points behind in key seats".
At another point activists will get very excited about "decapitating" high-profile Tories and a story to that effect will run in the Guardian.
Looking at drowned-puppy Rishi in the presentation, I do think it would have been interesting had he made his speech from just inside the porch or front door, whilst the media were out in the rain.
I'm now proactively upgrading his moniker to Rishi Sunk-Without-Trace.
Spare a thought for my mate at foreign office Albania. Months spent planning Call me Dave's visit and he turns up and then goes straight back home again!
Trying to be objective, bringing inflation down from 11.1% to 2.3% with a “recession” that amounted to 0.1% (and will almost certainly be smoothed away in due course) was a pretty remarkable piece of economic management. Traditionally, we would have expected a much bigger recession and a sharp rise in unemployment to achieve that.
But no one gives a toss. We are sick to death of them and that’s an end to it.
On students, the real concern for Labour and the Greens is that so many 18-22 year-olds will be abroad on July 4. A levels have finished, and university terms ended, so they'll be in Ibiza or wherever. That's more of a problem than them being in their 'home' town. I expect to see the left-wing parties put a real effort into ensuring that those not in the country can still vote.
Spare a thought for my mate at foreign office Albania. Months spent planning Call me Dave's visit and he turns up and then goes straight back home again!
That'd be hell - imagine all that caviar and champagne that'll be surplus to needs.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
You've been sold a Pup.
Only a Fokker would make such a bad pun.
My reputation as a punner is a veritable Albatros aroudn my neck.
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
I see your “our private polls say something different” and raise you a “there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day”.
At some point in the campaign the LibDems will brief journalists that "our private polling shows we're only a few points behind in key seats".
At another point activists will get very excited about "decapitating" high-profile Tories and a story to that effect will run in the Guardian.
None of this will have any basis in reality.
One random poll the week before the election will show the Tories within ten points. 10000 posts on here later, it will mean nothing.
Sunak will do better in the debates than we think, assuming Starmer allows there to be any. Davey will not.
Labour won’t have vetted all their candidates properly for a campaign during a war in Gaza.
On students, the real concern for Labour and the Greens is that so many 18-22 year-olds will be abroad on July 4. A levels have finished, and university terms ended, so they'll be in Ibiza or wherever. That's more of a problem than them being in their 'home' town. I expect to see the left-wing parties put a real effort into ensuring that those not in the country can still vote.
Ironically, that would of course negate the need for polling ID anyway...
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
I see your “our private polls say something different” and raise you a “there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day”.
At some point in the campaign the LibDems will brief journalists that "our private polling shows we're only a few points behind in key seats".
At another point activists will get very excited about "decapitating" high-profile Tories and a story to that effect will run in the Guardian.
None of this will have any basis in reality.
One random poll the week before the election will show the Tories within ten points. 10000 posts on here later, it will mean nothing.
Sunak will do better in the debates than we think, assuming Starmer allows there to be any. Davey will not.
Labour won’t have vetted all their candidates properly for a campaign during a war in Gaza.
Galloway might get a moment in the sun.
Is somebody at last going to fire him into the heart of it?
I think Starmer will be dreadful in a campaign. I also think Sunak is likely to be worse. Voters will be choosing the tallest dwarf.
Interesting parallels with the US election in that respect.
I find Starmer fairly unobjectionable, and Sunak a bit irritating, but I am curious about in what specific ways people think each will be bad. Eg Do you think Starmer will be too robotically on message, or fail to connect with the electorate etc?
Listening to the public interviewed post the election announcement they seem to suggest a plague on all your houses
I really do believe that our politicians are at rock bottom in the publics eyes
I do think we are too harsh in general on politicians, seeing all of them as the worst of them, and that generates a sort of feedback loop where they behave in ever more shifty and scummy ways, further justifying our negative views of them.
I don't know how we break that loop, since we need political leaders to deserve to our positive attention, yet they have little incentive to even try because it is not necessary for them.
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
I see your “our private polls say something different” and raise you a “there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day”.
At some point in the campaign the LibDems will brief journalists that "our private polling shows we're only a few points behind in key seats".
At another point activists will get very excited about "decapitating" high-profile Tories and a story to that effect will run in the Guardian.
None of this will have any basis in reality.
One random poll the week before the election will show the Tories within ten points. 10000 posts on here later, it will mean nothing.
Sunak will do better in the debates than we think, assuming Starmer allows there to be any. Davey will not.
Labour won’t have vetted all their candidates properly for a campaign during a war in Gaza.
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
I see your “our private polls say something different” and raise you a “there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day”.
At some point in the campaign the LibDems will brief journalists that "our private polling shows we're only a few points behind in key seats".
At another point activists will get very excited about "decapitating" high-profile Tories and a story to that effect will run in the Guardian.
None of this will have any basis in reality.
One random poll the week before the election will show the Tories within ten points. 10000 posts on here later, it will mean nothing.
Sunak will do better in the debates than we think, assuming Starmer allows there to be any. Davey will not.
Labour won’t have vetted all their candidates properly for a campaign during a war in Gaza.
Galloway might get a moment in the sun.
Mr Sunak remaining vertical and not having his underpants on his head would be doing better than we think on here.
Can anyone get a handle on the legislative washup, yet?
What are we losing and what are we keeping?
I make it they have perhaps just over 2 weeks still to run at most, since there are 43 days to election date.
Thanks for the header, @TSE - the D:ream one is delightful. Why did he name a band after 500 envelopes?
Parliament prorogued the day after tomorrow and dissolved a week tomorrow.
jack pannell @jack_pannnell So Sunak has called a general election for July 4. Below are the bills still in parliament that will have to pass by dissolution on May 30. Some have quite a way to go, and some will prove very contentious. We may see quite a few dropped in the coming days. #generalelection
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
You've been sold a Pup.
Only a Fokker would make such a bad pun.
My reputation as a punner is a veritable Albatros aroudn my neck.
I shall SE no more.
Hanover bad pun will Rumpler feathers. Gotha go for it.
I'm going to get out in front of an inevitable claim during the election period and say the 'Private polling shows the Tories doing better than the public polls'. As if that makes it more credible.
I see your “our private polls say something different” and raise you a “there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day”.
At some point in the campaign the LibDems will brief journalists that "our private polling shows we're only a few points behind in key seats".
At another point activists will get very excited about "decapitating" high-profile Tories and a story to that effect will run in the Guardian.
None of this will have any basis in reality.
One random poll the week before the election will show the Tories within ten points. 10000 posts on here later, it will mean nothing.
Sunak will do better in the debates than we think, assuming Starmer allows there to be any. Davey will not.
Labour won’t have vetted all their candidates properly for a campaign during a war in Gaza.
Can anyone get a handle on the legislative washup, yet?
What are we losing and what are we keeping?
I make it they have perhaps just over 2 weeks still to run at most, since there are 43 days to election date.
Thanks for the header, @TSE - the D:ream one is delightful. Why did he name a band after 500 envelopes?
Parliament prorogued the day after tomorrow and dissolved a week tomorrow.
jack pannell @jack_pannnell So Sunak has called a general election for July 4. Below are the bills still in parliament that will have to pass by dissolution on May 30. Some have quite a way to go, and some will prove very contentious. We may see quite a few dropped in the coming days. #generalelection
If it is a 2001 result (that is, a landslide but on low turnout), that might still be seen as positive from the Tories as it means they need to just get people to show up in 4-5 years to get a decent result, and would be doing better than 1997.
If it is a 2005 result I think the Tories will be ecstatic.
So what odds on leaving the ECHR (or offering a referendum) being in the Tory manifesto?
Very high. They need something to promise, what else sounds compelling? Tax cuts when it can be afforded or whatever is nice, but nothing new as a promise.
I assume that the contents of the manifesto will be viciously fought over by the various factions - it'll be more important to them (and their positioning for the future) than it will be to any voter. We might well see them producing something that becomes as infamous as the 1983 Labour one.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
You've been sold a Pup.
Only a Fokker would make such a bad pun.
My reputation as a punner is a veritable Albatros aroudn my neck.
I shall SE no more.
Hanover bad pun will Rumpler feathers. Gotha go for it.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
You've been sold a Pup.
Only a Fokker would make such a bad pun.
My reputation as a punner is a veritable Albatros aroudn my neck.
I shall SE no more.
Hanover bad pun will Rumpler feathers. Gotha go for it.
I have been absolutely snowed under with work and just coming up for air.
Why is Rishi doing this now? Can someone explain the strategy?
Is Farage coming back to the Tory fold? That is all I can think of.
He is just executing his plan: - Stop the boats with the Rwanda scheme - Get the credit for better economic news - Announce a snap election in the late spring sunshine - Win an unexpected victory
So far he has ticked off points 1, 2 and 3 from his plan.
Risky move by Sunak, he could have waited to give the tighter visa requirements more time to reduce immigration and for interest rates to fall and July will be as holidays start. However I expect he saw today's inflation fall as a move to go on the economy, anyway unless something dramatic changes looks like PM Starmer by the autumn with the main question the size of his majority
On students, the real concern for Labour and the Greens is that so many 18-22 year-olds will be abroad on July 4. A levels have finished, and university terms ended, so they'll be in Ibiza or wherever. That's more of a problem than them being in their 'home' town. I expect to see the left-wing parties put a real effort into ensuring that those not in the country can still vote.
Ironically, that would of course negate the need for polling ID anyway...
Doubly ironic as those students are the ones with passports.
Trying to be objective, bringing inflation down from 11.1% to 2.3% with a “recession” that amounted to 0.1% (and will almost certainly be smoothed away in due course) was a pretty remarkable piece of economic management. Traditionally, we would have expected a much bigger recession and a sharp rise in unemployment to achieve that.
But no one gives a toss. We are sick to death of them and that’s an end to it.
There's a strong argument that whoever was left holding the can when interest rates finally rose, was never going to get re-elected.
All else is noise.
On some level, I think, Sunak understood this simple truth.
On a less positive note (we don’t want Sunk to get complacent after all) the PSBR figures this morning, which got a lot less attention than the inflation data, were truly terrible. After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month. This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
Comments
In practical terms they are harder to do as pre-recorded so you're quickly behind the news cycle.
Email sent at 5:20pm
https://x.com/wonkypolicywonk/status/1793323232155627705
The campaign is when the Tories will miss Boris (might tell us something about the leadership contest) and the beginning of the end for Starmer.
What are we losing and what are we keeping?
I make it they have perhaps just over 2 weeks still to run at most, since there are 43 days to election date.
Thanks for the header, @TSE - the D:ream one is delightful. Why did he name a band after 500 envelopes?
I expect them to ignore that advice entirely.
Good luck with that.
I don't see anything in the polls or real election results to suggest SKS won't get his majority. This time.
I think Starmer will be dreadful in a campaign. I also think Sunak is likely to be worse. Voters will be choosing the tallest dwarf.
Interesting parallels with the US election in that respect.
Requires LibDem success and Reform collapse. Hmmm.
We shall see.
Blimey, what a relief. I thought we were stuck with this lot until Christmas.
There are some moments when Bostrom's argument that we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation seem not only plausible but the only possible explanation for the politics we see in front of our eyes. Rishi's speech was one of those moments.
If it is a 2005 result I think the Tories will be ecstatic. Very high. They need something to promise, what else sounds compelling? Tax cuts when it can be afforded or whatever is nice, but nothing new as a promise.
I'm not sure who is quick enough to publish today. But I assume we'll get a flurry by the weekend.
How will firms that adjust for swingback, e.g. assuming don't knows follow 2019 vote, adjust their methodology over the course of the campaign? I see no reason to change tomorrow but I would on the eve of the vote.
Next bear shits in the woods shocker.
Now since its a slow news day, shall we talk about our favourite sci fi show instead?
As for Sunak's reasons I would suggest his party was ill disciplined and disintegrating, with further defections on the cards, and by calling the election this ends as indeed I suspect will Reforms chances
Time for the conservatives to go into opposition and decide just who they are, while labour take on extraordinary challenges which will test just how many unpopular decisions they are going to have to make
Edit- Techne straddles today tomorrow, WeThink will be after election called
Tomorrow's YouGov will be yesterday and today I think
There's no way for anyone at the polling station to verify or validate the ID. It's completely useless, but doing anything better would increase the cost of running an election by a factor of ten (or more).
jack pannell
@jack_pannnell
So Sunak has called a general election for July 4. Below are the bills still in parliament that will have to pass by dissolution on May 30. Some have quite a way to go, and some will prove very contentious. We may see quite a few dropped in the coming days.
#generalelection
https://x.com/jack_pannnell/status/1793317127673221380
Or maybe Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur.
I really do believe that our politicians are at rock bottom in the publics eyes
In both cases they are more than simple placeholders, but a great attraction to their parties in having them up front is that they are neutral figureheads.
At another point activists will get very excited about "decapitating" high-profile Tories and a story to that effect will run in the Guardian.
None of this will have any basis in reality.
I'm now proactively upgrading his moniker to Rishi Sunk-Without-Trace.
But no one gives a toss. We are sick to death of them and that’s an end to it.
I expect to see the left-wing parties put a real effort into ensuring that those not in the country can still vote.
I shall SE no more.
Sunak will do better in the debates than we think, assuming Starmer allows there to be any. Davey will not.
Labour won’t have vetted all their candidates properly for a campaign during a war in Gaza.
Galloway might get a moment in the sun.
That said the Post Office scandal has still never received the public outrage it should have had, cross party.
I don't know how we break that loop, since we need political leaders to deserve to our positive attention, yet they have little incentive to even try because it is not necessary for them.
Why is Rishi doing this now? Can someone explain the strategy?
Is Farage coming back to the Tory fold? That is all I can think of.
Paula Vennells.
Aldershot
Amber Valley
Ashford
Aylesbury
Banbury
Basingstoke
Bracknell
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Bromley and Biggin Hill
Buckingham and Bletchley
Burton and Uttoxeter
Chester South and Eddisbury
Chippenham
Croydon South
Didcot and Wantage
Epsom and Ewell
Forest of Dean
Great Yarmouth
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Harrow East
Henley and Thame
Horsham
Isle of Wight West
Kettering
Lowestoft
Mansfield
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Newark
Newbury
Newcastle-under-Lyme
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Somerset
North West Cambridgeshire
North West Leicestershire
Redditch
Ribble Valley
Romford
Rugby
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Sherwood Forest
Stafford
Staffordshire Moorlands
Tamworth
Thornbury and Yate
Tunbridge Wells
Wellingborough and Rushden
Weston-Super-Mare
York Outer
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-general-election-key-constituencies-betting-33295556
Sorry, I’ve gone interwar.
- Stop the boats with the Rwanda scheme
- Get the credit for better economic news
- Announce a snap election in the late spring sunshine
- Win an unexpected victory
So far he has ticked off points 1, 2 and 3 from his plan.
All else is noise.
On some level, I think, Sunak understood this simple truth.
He was smart, but perhaps, not smart enough.
After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month.
This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.