On students, the real concern for Labour and the Greens is that so many 18-22 year-olds will be abroad on July 4. A levels have finished, and university terms ended, so they'll be in Ibiza or wherever. That's more of a problem than them being in their 'home' town. I expect to see the left-wing parties put a real effort into ensuring that those not in the country can still vote.
Yes my eldest will be abroad post A levels but only turns 18 two weeks after the election anyway...
If it is a 2001 result (that is, a landslide but on low turnout), that might still be seen as positive from the Tories as it means they need to just get people to show up in 4-5 years to get a decent result, and would be doing better than 1997.
If it is a 2005 result I think the Tories will be ecstatic.
So what odds on leaving the ECHR (or offering a referendum) being in the Tory manifesto?
Very high. They need something to promise, what else sounds compelling? Tax cuts when it can be afforded or whatever is nice, but nothing new as a promise.
I assume that the contents of the manifesto will be viciously fought over by the various factions - it'll be more important to them (and their positioning for the future) than it will be to any voter. We might well see them producing something that becomes as infamous as the 1983 Labour one.
Barebones manifesto full of platitudes, or overstuffed manifesto with every minor thought any Tory MP has had to try to appeal to every grievance of party members?
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
Tbf A shitload of Brexiteers seem to think they stormed Gold and Sword beaches.
On a less positive note (we don’t want Sunk to get complacent after all) the PSBR figures this morning, which got a lot less attention than the inflation data, were truly terrible. After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month. This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.
We'll see if any outgoing Minister leaves a "I'm sorry, but this time there really is no money" note.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
Tbf A shitload of Brexiteers seem to think they stormed Gold and Sword beaches.
I have been absolutely snowed under with work and just coming up for air.
Why is Rishi doing this now? Can someone explain the strategy?
Is Farage coming back to the Tory fold? That is all I can think of.
He is just executing his plan: - Stop the boats with the Rwanda scheme - Get the credit for better economic news - Announce a snap election in the late spring sunshine - Win an unexpected victory
So far he has ticked off points 1, 2 and 3 from his plan.
Funny he didn't mention today that he'd stopped the boats.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
He only wants to have it here because it's called 'Excel'. His daughters Vlookup and Sumif may be present.
The fact that we call him a spreadsheet nerd and a post about him and spreadsheets gets eight likes shows who the real nerds are.
People debating politics on the internet are nerds shocker.
Next bear shits in the woods shocker.
Now since its a slow news day, shall we talk about our favourite sci fi show instead?
Star Cops.
Or maybe Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur.
It tends to deteriorate into which version of Star Trek is the best. Some poor souls still insist on the lightsaber franchise, but I just whisper "The Last Jedi" and that ends that.
Although if the rumours about the upcoming "Star Trek" movie are true. I may rather sadly withdraw my affections. And I speak as a defender of "Star Trek: Discovery"...
Labour quick off the mark. Email sent out from Starmer to all members at 17.14, while Sunak was still being drenched, setting out campaign priorities and, of course, asking for money.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
Tbf A shitload of Brexiteers seem to think they stormed Gold and Sword beaches.
Saving Private Anderson
You think Jimmy’s imminent retirement played a role? Well, it makes as much sense as anything else.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
You've been sold a Pup.
Only a Fokker would make such a bad pun.
My reputation as a punner is a veritable Albatros aroudn my neck.
I shall SE no more.
Hanover bad pun will Rumpler feathers. Gotha go for it.
On a less positive note (we don’t want Sunk to get complacent after all) the PSBR figures this morning, which got a lot less attention than the inflation data, were truly terrible. After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month. This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.
Or worse: they won’t do either of those things. Welcome to Italy.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
He only wants to have it here because it's called 'Excel'. His daughters Vlookup and Sumif may be present.
The fact that we call him a spreadsheet nerd and a post about him and spreadsheets gets eight likes shows who the real nerds are.
People debating politics on the internet are nerds shocker.
Next bear shits in the woods shocker.
Now since its a slow news day, shall we talk about our favourite sci fi show instead?
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
You've been sold a Pup.
Only a Fokker would make such a bad pun.
My reputation as a punner is a veritable Albatros aroudn my neck.
Just spoke to my mother to catch up with what she thought about the election announcement.
Found out that she's struggling to get the NHS to agree to put her on the waiting list for a cataract operation for her left eye, and now thinks her right eye has started to develop one too. She's going to be functionally blind and in need of expensive care before the NHS manage to perform a relatively routine operation.
What a shambles everything is.
How much would a private cataract operation cost?
Ask her GP or optom to refer her to one of the private contractors doing NHS work and she will be done in weeks in most English regions.
earlier last year my aunt was quoted from £2.300 by Spa Healthcare and when the eye was examined in person £4.300 then her GP coughed up for it. it took a few months.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
My grandad voted Labour in 1945 and I think he regretted it for the rest of his life.
On students, the real concern for Labour and the Greens is that so many 18-22 year-olds will be abroad on July 4. A levels have finished, and university terms ended, so they'll be in Ibiza or wherever. That's more of a problem than them being in their 'home' town. I expect to see the left-wing parties put a real effort into ensuring that those not in the country can still vote.
Yes my eldest will be abroad post A levels but only turns 18 two weeks after the election anyway...
I have been absolutely snowed under with work and just coming up for air.
Why is Rishi doing this now? Can someone explain the strategy?
Is Farage coming back to the Tory fold? That is all I can think of.
Farage has monstered him on social media already 'he has chosen suicide' 'empty speech in the rain' etc
Okay. Thanks for the update! Appreciate it genuinely – I have been so busy at work I haven't bene able to keep up. Haven't even been on PB today until 5.30pm which says it all!!
I have been absolutely snowed under with work and just coming up for air.
Why is Rishi doing this now? Can someone explain the strategy?
Is Farage coming back to the Tory fold? That is all I can think of.
He is just executing his plan: - Stop the boats with the Rwanda scheme - Get the credit for better economic news - Announce a snap election in the late spring torrential rain - Win an unexpected victory
So far he has ticked off points 1, 2 and 3 from his plan.
On a less positive note (we don’t want Sunk to get complacent after all) the PSBR figures this morning, which got a lot less attention than the inflation data, were truly terrible. After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month. This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.
Labour quick off the mark. Email sent out from Starmer to all members at 17.14, while Sunak was still being drenched, setting out campaign priorities and, of course, asking for money.
Impressive! We were slow off the mark - only 17:23...
What are the implications of having a lame-duck PM for the duration of the campaign?
First, since we don't know who'll be leading the Tories after the election, the "you don't know what you'll get under Labour" attack will be blunted.
Second, the starting gun for the leadership contest has been fired. Sunak will very quickly become seen as yesterday's man, to the point that I wonder if we'll see him being more or less completely edged out of the campaign by those who hope to succeed him.
Third, some of the potential leadership candidates might do better if the party loses heavily - a bad result would guarantee that Mordaunt wouldn't be a candidate, for example. Depending on how cynical some of the likely survivors are, this might become a factor later in the campaign.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
My grandad voted Labour in 1945 and I think he regretted it for the rest of his life.
Predictions: Starmer and Sunak are both judged to have had a better than expected campaign. The polls are pretty static for most of the campaign but there are signs of a late swing to the Tories, who do better than the polls suggest, limiting Labour's majority to double figures. Galloway gets a seat. Labour overtakes the SNP in Scotland. Labour does well in the North and South of England but less so in the Midlands and outer London. Reform do badly. The Tories choose a more centrist than expected leader after the election, but the party is left bitterly divided.
On a less positive note (we don’t want Sunk to get complacent after all) the PSBR figures this morning, which got a lot less attention than the inflation data, were truly terrible. After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month. This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.
We'll see if any outgoing Minister leaves a "I'm sorry, but this time there really is no money" note.
I think that they will be under very strict instructions not to standing the number of thousands of times the Tories used that.
On a less positive note (we don’t want Sunk to get complacent after all) the PSBR figures this morning, which got a lot less attention than the inflation data, were truly terrible. After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month. This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.
On a less positive note (we don’t want Sunk to get complacent after all) the PSBR figures this morning, which got a lot less attention than the inflation data, were truly terrible. After a strong quarter of economic growth, following the shallowest recession on record, with the costs of the gas cap coming off the books we borrowed £20.1bn in a single month. This is completely unsustainable. The Labour government is going to inherit a nightmare on the fiscal front forcing both serious cuts and substantial tax rises within months. No wonder the Shadow Chancellor looks so bloody miserable all the time.
Tax cuts in such a context are offensive. Just send the bill to our children.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
It doesn't even do that!
There's no way for anyone at the polling stage to verify or validate the ID. It's completely useless, but doing anything better would increase the cost of running an election by a factor of ten (or more).
Does the proof of address not come in at Registration stage?
Yes, it does - but in exactly the same way it did before the voter ID requirements.
If the govt had wanted to do this properly, they'd have gone down the route of having a separate voter ID card, with a simple validation system available on people's phones.
The current system, but multiple different passports and driving licences from a variety of countries would be an absolute nightmare to validate properly. Even if they just limited it to UK Passports and GB and NI driving licences, that would require live links into HMPO, DVLA, and DVA(NI) - just doing that would be more difficult and more expensive than coming up with a lightweight single-purpose system.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
Tbf A shitload of Brexiteers seem to think they stormed Gold and Sword beaches.
I assume your voter ID has to match your registered address. GE turnout levels, and dislocated students, may be the first real test of this Jim Crow law.
No, photo ID doesn't have to include an address. A passport for example.
The students do need to get registered sharpish though.
Blimey, it’s worse than I thought. So all that time and money wasted for narrow, perceived political advantage, and all I have to prove is that I am A “Mr Biggles” not THE “Mr Biggles of Sopwith Lane”.
You've been sold a Pup.
Only a Fokker would make such a bad pun.
My reputation as a punner is a veritable Albatros aroudn my neck.
I shall SE no more.
Hanover bad pun will Rumpler feathers. Gotha go for it.
Dare I suggest that Starmer will get a 266 majority?
Labour quick off the mark. Email sent out from Starmer to all members at 17.14, while Sunak was still being drenched, setting out campaign priorities and, of course, asking for money.
I got one from Ed Davey at 1724, Green Party at 1734.
Labour quick off the mark. Email sent out from Starmer to all members at 17.14, while Sunak was still being drenched, setting out campaign priorities and, of course, asking for money.
I got one from Ed Davey at 1724, Green Party at 1734.
Looks like everyone is ready to go.
According to LBC except the Tories who still have some vacancies where sitting MPs are stepping down.
Labour quick off the mark. Email sent out from Starmer to all members at 17.14, while Sunak was still being drenched, setting out campaign priorities and, of course, asking for money.
I got one from Ed Davey at 1724, Green Party at 1734.
Looks like everyone is ready to go.
According to LBC except the Tories who still have some vacancies where sitting MPs are stepping down.
What a strange day
One of the indications of whether this has been entirely though through is if there's an avalanche of Conservative MPs throwing in the towel to rather than quietly doing it over the next few months.
The other thing I want to see is what angle on the swingometer the Conservatives decide to defend.
Tory MPs and candidates have been asked to assemble at the Excel centre for a rally with Sunak at 8pm this evening, where the PM will “speak for 15 mins”. Fair to say not all of them regard this as an enticing offer
He only wants to have it here because it's called 'Excel'. His daughters Vlookup and Sumif may be present.
The fact that we call him a spreadsheet nerd and a post about him and spreadsheets gets eight likes shows who the real nerds are.
People debating politics on the internet are nerds shocker.
Next bear shits in the woods shocker.
Now since its a slow news day, shall we talk about our favourite sci fi show instead?
Star Cops.
Or maybe Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur.
It tends to deteriorate into which version of Star Trek is the best. Some poor souls still insist on the lightsaber franchise, but I just whisper "The Last Jedi" and that ends that.
Although if the rumours about the upcoming "Star Trek" movie are true. I may rather sadly withdraw my affections. And I speak as a defender of "Star Trek: Discovery"...
Can't go wrong with the lightsaber franchise, though Gate was better than both Wars and Trek.
I am enjoying though the 'last July vote was 1945 and Labour won a landslide!' Stuff though. Many of those voters turning out this time?? I mean they'd only be minimum 99 years old
Interesting parallels though 1945 Churchill’s Tories had won the war but Labour were trusted to deliver the peace. 2024 Johnson’s Tories got Bwexit done but Labour will be trusted with rebuilding the bridges.
Predictions: Starmer and Sunak are both judged to have had a better than expected campaign. The polls are pretty static for most of the campaign but there are signs of a late swing to the Tories, who do better than the polls suggest, limiting Labour's majority to double figures. Galloway gets a seat. Labour overtakes the SNP in Scotland. Labour does well in the North and South of England but less so in the Midlands and outer London. Reform do badly. The Tories choose a more centrist than expected leader after the election, but the party is left bitterly divided.
I've been wondering about Rotherham. 18% majority, and we can rely on a sectarian campaign.
Chris Williams XMP is still deputy leader of the WRP.
As most of you know I am the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Anyone else want to out themselves as candidates? For any party in any constituency?
Well I wasn't been serious! Someone needs to update the wiki page, and a) I can't be arsed and b) Even if I was, I don't know @RochdalePioneers real name
It will be sorted! I don't do Wiki. Or the web page. Has caught us on the hop TBH.
Comments
Best explanation on here is that, by August, inflation will be back up close to 4%, and this is the best window of opportunity he has left.
Although if the rumours about the upcoming "Star Trek" movie are true. I may rather sadly withdraw my affections. And I speak as a defender of "Star Trek: Discovery"...
and when the eye was examined in person £4.300
then her GP coughed up for it.
it took a few months.
NEW THREAD
(FTFY)
First, since we don't know who'll be leading the Tories after the election, the "you don't know what you'll get under Labour" attack will be blunted.
Second, the starting gun for the leadership contest has been fired. Sunak will very quickly become seen as yesterday's man, to the point that I wonder if we'll see him being more or less completely edged out of the campaign by those who hope to succeed him.
Third, some of the potential leadership candidates might do better if the party loses heavily - a bad result would guarantee that Mordaunt wouldn't be a candidate, for example. Depending on how cynical some of the likely survivors are, this might become a factor later in the campaign.
The polls are pretty static for most of the campaign but there are signs of a late swing to the Tories, who do better than the polls suggest, limiting Labour's majority to double figures.
Galloway gets a seat.
Labour overtakes the SNP in Scotland.
Labour does well in the North and South of England but less so in the Midlands and outer London.
Reform do badly.
The Tories choose a more centrist than expected leader after the election, but the party is left bitterly divided.
If the govt had wanted to do this properly, they'd have gone down the route of having a separate voter ID card, with a simple validation system available on people's phones.
The current system, but multiple different passports and driving licences from a variety of countries would be an absolute nightmare to validate properly. Even if they just limited it to UK Passports and GB and NI driving licences, that would require live links into HMPO, DVLA, and DVA(NI) - just doing that would be more difficult and more expensive than coming up with a lightweight single-purpose system.
Looks like everyone is ready to go.
What a strange day
The other thing I want to see is what angle on the swingometer the Conservatives decide to defend.
More similar than you might think.
Chris Williams XMP is still deputy leader of the WRP.
Join a union.
https://x.com/The_TUC/status/1793327489709641843
A Sky News reporter is forcibly kicked out of Rishi Sunak’s first Tory election campaign rally
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793359914137464960