Eurovision banned in this household due to it being for utter imbeciles. DYOR.
Its come back into fashion in the tubbs household last few years. Helped by 2022 and the UK 'winning', with an act that did the graft, was known in Europe and cared. Just a bit of camp fun, not to be taken seriously.
I don't do camp. I shall protest it by standing shirtless in the street, holding back a slavering dog.
Eurovision banned in this household due to it being for utter imbeciles. DYOR.
Its come back into fashion in the tubbs household last few years. Helped by 2022 and the UK 'winning', with an act that did the graft, was known in Europe and cared. Just a bit of camp fun, not to be taken seriously.
I don't do camp. I shall protest it by standing shirtless in the street, holding back a slavering dog.
F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
Ferrari have a press conference at midday UK time. The Twitter rumour is that Adrian Newey is going to appear in a red shirt.
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
Apparently teams are currently lobbying the FIA to push the 2026 regs change back to 2028 now that the championship is finally becoming competitive, I think it would be a good idea and it gives Mercedes a chance to catch up more and for McLaren and Ferrari to catch RBR completely so we have a three way title race next season and for the following two seasons rather than hoping the teams have all got fairly even 2026 concepts for decent racing on track.
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
Ferrari have a press conference at midday UK time. The Twitter rumour is that Adrian Newey is going to appear in a red shirt.
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
Apparently teams are currently lobbying the FIA to push the 2026 regs change back to 2028 now that the championship is finally becoming competitive, I think it would be a good idea and it gives Mercedes a chance to catch up more and for McLaren and Ferrari to catch RBR completely so we have a three way title race next season and for the following two seasons rather than hoping the teams have all got fairly even 2026 concepts for decent racing on track.
Not heard that one, but it makes sense. The problem is the serious money being invested already in the 2026 engine concepts, which would have to be continued for two years more.
Meanwhile, the US Congress are getting quite upset about the refusal of F1 (FOM/Liberty) to admit Andretti, after the FIA gave them approval, and have subpoenaed emails and documents related to the decision, which looks from the outside as an organisation acting as a cartel to refuse a new entrant against their own written rules. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24653590-file_8867
(Sits huddled in the corner, gently sobbing about humanity...)
I would like to say this is one of the weirder conspiracy theories out there but to be honest it is mild compared to some. Still complete la-la land. As a conspiracy theory it does seem far more widespread over the last few years though.
Ahead of the Eurovision final on Saturday, he looked at what bookmakers were saying about his chances of winning the contest.
"My odds for winning are at one per cent," laughs the singer.
"But that’s fine. It’s better than zero."
There's a wee bit of arb between Smarkets and Betfair on some of the acts (e.g. Olly lay at 300 on Smarkets and back 340 on BF, but only £7 @ 300 on Smarkets - still essentially a no-risk bet on Olly to win is possible). Don't have time to check in detail at the moment - working! - but might be worth checking across all the entries in case there's anything juicier.
So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!
They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.
FFS Starmer asked what his target is for small boat crossings. No number, he wants to reduce it 'materially' What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
As opposed to materially increasing it presumably, as with the current lot.
Whether Starmer does reduce crossings remains to be seen, but Sunak saying he will stop the boats only to increase them feels somewhat empty.
Survation NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. LAB 44 (-) CON 24 (-2) LD 10 (+1) GRN 7 (+4) RFM 8 (-2) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.
That's very good news for the LLGers. The bloc is up 5, which is close to being beyond MoE. LLG 61 RefCon 32.
I think the pattern that we'd expected after the locals - Greens and Lib Dems up, Reform down - is starting to show itself in polling. Several now with Ref declines, and a few with LD increases (Greens more patchy).
Ahead of the Eurovision final on Saturday, he looked at what bookmakers were saying about his chances of winning the contest.
"My odds for winning are at one per cent," laughs the singer.
"But that’s fine. It’s better than zero."
There's a wee bit of arb between Smarkets and Betfair on some of the acts (e.g. Olly lay at 300 on Smarkets and back 340 on BF, but only £7 @ 300 on Smarkets - still essentially a no-risk bet on Olly to win is possible). Don't have time to check in detail at the moment - working! - but might be worth checking across all the entries in case there's anything juicier.
Europe still has cuckoos. Reminds me of my childhood. Where did English cuckoos go,?
I can often hear a cuckoo at my vineyard in Rosie Duffield land, so they're not completely gone. But I agree hearing them generally is a bit of a rarity. I think they only really enjoy properly deep countryside.
Singing one of the two most famous cuckoo-related madrigals next week in my choir's next concert. Not Sumer is icumen in, but the Chant des Oyseaulx by Janequin, which is one of the most fiendishly difficult pieces to perform because of the speed of French bird noise words that make the whole thing like a tongue-twister. The easiest bit is the several bars of us just intoning "CouCou".
F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
Ferrari have a press conference at midday UK time. The Twitter rumour is that Adrian Newey is going to appear in a red shirt.
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
Apparently teams are currently lobbying the FIA to push the 2026 regs change back to 2028 now that the championship is finally becoming competitive, I think it would be a good idea and it gives Mercedes a chance to catch up more and for McLaren and Ferrari to catch RBR completely so we have a three way title race next season and for the following two seasons rather than hoping the teams have all got fairly even 2026 concepts for decent racing on track.
Not heard that one, but it makes sense. The problem is the serious money being invested already in the 2026 engine concepts, which would have to be continued for two years more.
Meanwhile, the US Congress are getting quite upset about the refusal of F1 (FOM/Liberty) to admit Andretti, after the FIA gave them approval, and have subpoenaed emails and documents related to the decision, which looks from the outside as an organisation acting as a cartel to refuse a new entrant against their own written rules. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24653590-file_8867
Yes and it would hold up Audi for another two years who are only interested in coming for the new regs. Even so it makes sense do it, we've finally got to a place where the championship race might not be a foregone conclusion with Ferrari and McLaren actually close to being on even terms with RBR, we can't throw that away after just 1.5 seasons.
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Israel is now into 3.6 (or 5/2) on Betfair, 3/1 in a place with the books. Squeaky bum time for those who laid Israel at 66/1 or more just yesterday. Is this an over-correction though? Even if there is. as you suggest, a pro-Israeli plot amongst the public in every country in Eurovision-land, remember there is the jury vote too.
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
FFS Starmer asked what his target is for small boat crossings. No number, he wants to reduce it 'materially' What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
As opposed to materially increasing it presumably, as with the current lot.
Whether Starmer does reduce crossings remains to be seen, but Sunak saying he will stop the boats only to increase them feels somewhat empty.
He's meant to offer something better than the current disaster. He isn't. It's all meaningless waffle. 'Replace gimmicks with graft' is just 'replace policy with slogan' it's 'decade of national renewal' bollocks We are faced with the most appalling set of options Are we expected to believe Europe isn't already pursuing these gangs??
Europe still has cuckoos. Reminds me of my childhood. Where did English cuckoos go,?
I heard two Scottish cuckoos on Wednesday evening, singing from different parts of the woods above us. Do English cuckoos retire to Scotland like English pensioners?
F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
Ferrari have a press conference at midday UK time. The Twitter rumour is that Adrian Newey is going to appear in a red shirt.
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
Apparently teams are currently lobbying the FIA to push the 2026 regs change back to 2028 now that the championship is finally becoming competitive, I think it would be a good idea and it gives Mercedes a chance to catch up more and for McLaren and Ferrari to catch RBR completely so we have a three way title race next season and for the following two seasons rather than hoping the teams have all got fairly even 2026 concepts for decent racing on track.
Not heard that one, but it makes sense. The problem is the serious money being invested already in the 2026 engine concepts, which would have to be continued for two years more.
Meanwhile, the US Congress are getting quite upset about the refusal of F1 (FOM/Liberty) to admit Andretti, after the FIA gave them approval, and have subpoenaed emails and documents related to the decision, which looks from the outside as an organisation acting as a cartel to refuse a new entrant against their own written rules. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24653590-file_8867
Joe Saward pointed out that the list of congressmen campaigning ties into the location of large GM plants
Also we are talking billions of dollars so it’s very strange that political pressure is being applied but no court case triggered
FFS Starmer asked what his target is for small boat crossings. No number, he wants to reduce it 'materially' What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
As opposed to materially increasing it presumably, as with the current lot.
Whether Starmer does reduce crossings remains to be seen, but Sunak saying he will stop the boats only to increase them feels somewhat empty.
He's meant to offer something better than the current disaster. He isn't. It's all meaningless waffle. 'Replace gimmicks with graft' is just 'replace policy with slogan' it's 'decade of national renewal' bollocks We are faced with the most appalling set of options Are we expected to believe Europe isn't already pursuing these gangs??
Starmer just sounds vacuous, his only upside is he;s not Yvette Cooper.
Survation NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. LAB 44 (-) CON 24 (-2) LD 10 (+1) GRN 7 (+4) RFM 8 (-2) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.
That's very good news for the LLGers. The bloc is up 5, which is close to being beyond MoE. LLG 61 RefCon 32.
I think the pattern that we'd expected after the locals - Greens and Lib Dems up, Reform down - is starting to show itself in polling. Several now with Ref declines, and a few with LD increases (Greens more patchy).
Yes Reform decline is looking a reality, LDs getting a 'performance' bump as are Greens Stabilisation over the next couple of weeks to a new baseline imo which is something like 43 24 10 10/11 6 SNP 2 or 3 others 3 to 5 Lab, Con, Ref, LD, Green
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
FFS Starmer asked what his target is for small boat crossings. No number, he wants to reduce it 'materially' What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
As opposed to materially increasing it presumably, as with the current lot.
Whether Starmer does reduce crossings remains to be seen, but Sunak saying he will stop the boats only to increase them feels somewhat empty.
Besides, the amount of grief caused by Dave saying "tens of thousands" (when was that? before the 2010 election?) has hopefully taught some politicians a lesson.
Europe still has cuckoos. Reminds me of my childhood. Where did English cuckoos go,?
I heard two Scottish cuckoos on Wednesday evening, singing from different parts of the woods above us. Do English cuckoos retire to Scotland like English pensioners?
Heard my first Cuckoo this year on 28 April on Puttenham Common (near Godalming). Since then have heard them on Thursley and Hankley commons too -- they usally seem fairly widepsred around Surrey in my experience.
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
+ whooping cough
The same UK economy, that despite all the official doomsters, grew 0.6 % in the last three months? That economy? The NHS is slowly recovering from Covid, as are other health systems round the world. Some schools have issues in their buildings, many do not. Water companies has become an issue partly due to better monitoring and reporting - we now know about the problems.
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Israel is now into 3.6 (or 5/2) on Betfair, 3/1 in a place with the books. Squeaky bum time for those who laid Israel at 66/1 or more just yesterday. Is this an over-correction though? Even if there is. as you suggest, a pro-Israeli plot amongst the public in every country in Eurovision-land, remember there is the jury vote too.
66 yesterday? Very sorry I missed that!
Even now the money is still piling on Israel. 5/2 with the books is fast disappearing and Betfair is already shorter.
ETA my mole on the Betfair forum reckons the Italian televote numbers were leaked, and gave 40 per cent to Israel, which is massive.
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
FFS Starmer asked what his target is for small boat crossings. No number, he wants to reduce it 'materially' What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
As opposed to materially increasing it presumably, as with the current lot.
Whether Starmer does reduce crossings remains to be seen, but Sunak saying he will stop the boats only to increase them feels somewhat empty.
Besides, the amount of grief caused by Dave saying "tens of thousands" (when was that? before the 2010 election?) has hopefully taught some politicians a lesson.
Unfortunately it taught them the wrong one. Instead of setting numerical or SMART targets that they can be judged against, they now indulge in meaningless waffle that they can't be judged against. It's good for their emotional well-being but that's not what we employ them for.
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
+ whooping cough
The same UK economy, that despite all the official doomsters, grew 0.6 % in the last three months? That economy? The NHS is slowly recovering from Covid, as are other health systems round the world. Some schools have issues in their buildings, many do not. Water companies has become an issue partly due to better monitoring and reporting - we now know about the problems.
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
It would be a mistake for Sunak to go around trying to re-frame it like that.
"It's not that bad."
Indeed, "UK officially out of recession" just reminds people that we were, at least notionally, in a recession. I'd forgotten.
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
+ whooping cough
The same UK economy, that despite all the official doomsters, grew 0.6 % in the last three months? That economy? The NHS is slowly recovering from Covid, as are other health systems round the world. Some schools have issues in their buildings, many do not. Water companies has become an issue partly due to better monitoring and reporting - we now know about the problems.
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
It would be a mistake for Sunak to go around trying to re-frame it like that.
"It's not that bad."
Indeed, "UK officially out of recession" just reminds people that we were, at least notionally, in a recession. I'd forgotten.
Rishi will go for boundless optimism and everything is on its way to being great, all thanks to me. Will resonate well with 15% and piss off 50%.
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
Wasn't the original Naqba when the Palestinians "ethnically cleansed" themselves from the region, to allow the invading Arab armies to exterminate all of the Jews?
Survation NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. LAB 44 (-) CON 24 (-2) LD 10 (+1) GRN 7 (+4) RFM 8 (-2) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.
That's very good news for the LLGers. The bloc is up 5, which is close to being beyond MoE. LLG 61 RefCon 32.
I think the pattern that we'd expected after the locals - Greens and Lib Dems up, Reform down - is starting to show itself in polling. Several now with Ref declines, and a few with LD increases (Greens more patchy).
Yes Reform decline is looking a reality, LDs getting a 'performance' bump as are Greens Stabilisation over the next couple of weeks to a new baseline imo which is something like 43 24 10 10/11 6 SNP 2 or 3 others 3 to 5 Lab, Con, Ref, LD, Green
I've noticed a shift in wind direction this week though, which may spell an unsettled period for Labour. Starmer's decision to accept Natalie Elphicke and the mountain Gaza rebellion on the left are just starting to pick away at the carefully curated image of Labour unity. The trouble with disunity is it can be like a dam bursting, as the Tories have found repeatedly. Starmer and his team need to be very careful about this. They need to start paying a bit more attention to some of their more agitated, but non-Corbynista, backbenchers like Rosie Duffield.
And journalists are really starting to scrutinise Labour policy. Yvette Cooper on Today this morning was getting quite a hard time over small boats plans, more akin to what they might expect in an election campaign. Now the locals are over and the media expects Labour to win, this is only going to increase.
What will that do for polling? Probably not much to start with, but over time I think I can start to sense the seeds being sown for some Tory swingback ahead of the election. Another reason Sunak is probably right to go long on election date.
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
+ whooping cough
The same UK economy, that despite all the official doomsters, grew 0.6 % in the last three months? That economy? The NHS is slowly recovering from Covid, as are other health systems round the world. Some schools have issues in their buildings, many do not. Water companies has become an issue partly due to better monitoring and reporting - we now know about the problems.
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
It would be a mistake for Sunak to go around trying to re-frame it like that.
"It's not that bad."
Indeed, "UK officially out of recession" just reminds people that we were, at least notionally, in a recession. I'd forgotten.
Rishi will go for boundless optimism and everything is on its way to being great, all thanks to me. Will resonate well with 15% and piss off 50%.
It will shore up the core wrinklies a bit for sure but triumphalism won't wash. Labour's 'no growth to low growth' is also silly, we can now call Reeves a failure every time she is under 0.5% in a quarter. 0.6% is a respectable figure, they should all be rather more measured in presenting it
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
@PickardJE Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.
first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation
What a disgrace.
A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.
First they came for the lawyers and I said nothing...
Good morning all.
Makes a nice change from "first all the lawyers came for me".
(See the Ghost of George Carman and the nearest blonde or Carter-F*ck passim.)
"The deadline for the Defence was mistakenly missed, and we heard nothing further from the Claimant (including any notice of their default judgment application) until we received the Order from the Court”.
Alternatively phrased: “Please judge, we are smol bean uwu lawyers & the mean claimant didn’t tell us we were forfeiting the case.”
Not surprised the judge was unimpressed, but I guess they had to try.
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
It's supposed to run through Mont St Michel and Monte Sant’Angelo, probably through the Sanctuary but I'd have to look it up. Unfortunately some writers don't even know spherical trigonometry, let alone the spheroidal model. (Give them any two points in Somerset and they will probably say they're on a line that goes through Uluru or Giza.) I followed the Mont to Monte line down and it seems to go near (but not through) Medina. You might pick up on an alignment locally across Gargano. Mont St Michel is on a bearing of ~305 degrees from where you are.
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
+ whooping cough
The same UK economy, that despite all the official doomsters, grew 0.6 % in the last three months? That economy? The NHS is slowly recovering from Covid, as are other health systems round the world. Some schools have issues in their buildings, many do not. Water companies has become an issue partly due to better monitoring and reporting - we now know about the problems.
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
It would be a mistake for Sunak to go around trying to re-frame it like that.
"It's not that bad."
Indeed, "UK officially out of recession" just reminds people that we were, at least notionally, in a recession. I'd forgotten.
People have short memories. Give it 6 months and an interest rate cut and things will look different. Starmer hasnt said anything much in terms of how he'd do things better.
I was in Aberdeen yesterday and the property guys were sounding bullish. Oil and gas is on the up. So if the mood starts to turn so will the polls.
Survation NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. LAB 44 (-) CON 24 (-2) LD 10 (+1) GRN 7 (+4) RFM 8 (-2) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.
That's very good news for the LLGers. The bloc is up 5, which is close to being beyond MoE. LLG 61 RefCon 32.
I think the pattern that we'd expected after the locals - Greens and Lib Dems up, Reform down - is starting to show itself in polling. Several now with Ref declines, and a few with LD increases (Greens more patchy).
Yes Reform decline is looking a reality, LDs getting a 'performance' bump as are Greens Stabilisation over the next couple of weeks to a new baseline imo which is something like 43 24 10 10/11 6 SNP 2 or 3 others 3 to 5 Lab, Con, Ref, LD, Green
I've noticed a shift in wind direction this week though, which may spell an unsettled period for Labour. Starmer's decision to accept Natalie Elphicke and the mountain Gaza rebellion on the left are just starting to pick away at the carefully curated image of Labour unity. The trouble with disunity is it can be like a dam bursting, as the Tories have found repeatedly. Starmer and his team need to be very careful about this. They need to start paying a bit more attention to some of their more agitated, but non-Corbynista, backbenchers like Rosie Duffield.
And journalists are really starting to scrutinise Labour policy. Yvette Cooper on Today this morning was getting quite a hard time over small boats plans, more akin to what they might expect in an election campaign. Now the locals are over and the media expects Labour to win, this is only going to increase.
What will that do for polling? Probably not much to start with, but over time I think I can start to sense the seeds being sown for some Tory swingback ahead of the election. Another reason Sunak is probably right to go long on election date.
Survation NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. LAB 44 (-) CON 24 (-2) LD 10 (+1) GRN 7 (+4) RFM 8 (-2) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.
That's very good news for the LLGers. The bloc is up 5, which is close to being beyond MoE. LLG 61 RefCon 32.
I think the pattern that we'd expected after the locals - Greens and Lib Dems up, Reform down - is starting to show itself in polling. Several now with Ref declines, and a few with LD increases (Greens more patchy).
Yes Reform decline is looking a reality, LDs getting a 'performance' bump as are Greens Stabilisation over the next couple of weeks to a new baseline imo which is something like 43 24 10 10/11 6 SNP 2 or 3 others 3 to 5 Lab, Con, Ref, LD, Green
I've noticed a shift in wind direction this week though, which may spell an unsettled period for Labour. Starmer's decision to accept Natalie Elphicke and the mountain Gaza rebellion on the left are just starting to pick away at the carefully curated image of Labour unity. The trouble with disunity is it can be like a dam bursting, as the Tories have found repeatedly. Starmer and his team need to be very careful about this. They need to start paying a bit more attention to some of their more agitated, but non-Corbynista, backbenchers like Rosie Duffield.
And journalists are really starting to scrutinise Labour policy. Yvette Cooper on Today this morning was getting quite a hard time over small boats plans, more akin to what they might expect in an election campaign. Now the locals are over and the media expects Labour to win, this is only going to increase.
What will that do for polling? Probably not much to start with, but over time I think I can start to sense the seeds being sown for some Tory swingback ahead of the election. Another reason Sunak is probably right to go long on election date.
We've seen in GE 2005 what happens when Labour loses the lads in beards and keffiyehs who campaign to shut down local pubs and shout Allahu akbar at election counts. Not much.
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
Wasn't the original Naqba when the Palestinians "ethnically cleansed" themselves from the region, to allow the invading Arab armies to exterminate all of the Jews?
That wasn't a genocide either
With 15k Palestinians killed, ethnically cleansing themselves must have been a risky business. A lot of trip hazards I expect.
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Israel is now into 3.6 (or 5/2) on Betfair, 3/1 in a place with the books. Squeaky bum time for those who laid Israel at 66/1 or more just yesterday. Is this an over-correction though? Even if there is. as you suggest, a pro-Israeli plot amongst the public in every country in Eurovision-land, remember there is the jury vote too.
66 yesterday? Very sorry I missed that!
Even now the money is still piling on Israel. 5/2 with the books is fast disappearing and Betfair is already shorter.
ETA my mole on the Betfair forum reckons the Italian televote numbers were leaked, and gave 40 per cent to Israel, which is massive.
Israel getting a landslide win, as Ukraine got a couple of years ago, would be hillarious on so many levels.
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
+ whooping cough
The same UK economy, that despite all the official doomsters, grew 0.6 % in the last three months? That economy? The NHS is slowly recovering from Covid, as are other health systems round the world. Some schools have issues in their buildings, many do not. Water companies has become an issue partly due to better monitoring and reporting - we now know about the problems.
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
It would be a mistake for Sunak to go around trying to re-frame it like that.
"It's not that bad."
Indeed, "UK officially out of recession" just reminds people that we were, at least notionally, in a recession. I'd forgotten.
People have short memories. Give it 6 months and an interest rate cut and things will look different. Starmer hasnt said anything much in terms of how he'd do things better.
I was in Aberdeen yesterday and the property guys were sounding bullish. Oil and gas is on the up. So if the mood starts to turn so will the polls.
Possible. But then I think Sunak starts to be a real drag on the Conservatives. I don't see his personal ratings changing, even if the economy improves.
Europe still has cuckoos. Reminds me of my childhood. Where did English cuckoos go,?
I can often hear a cuckoo at my vineyard in Rosie Duffield land, so they're not completely gone. But I agree hearing them generally is a bit of a rarity. I think they only really enjoy properly deep countryside.
Singing one of the two most famous cuckoo-related madrigals next week in my choir's next concert. Not Sumer is icumen in, but the Chant des Oyseaulx by Janequin, which is one of the most fiendishly difficult pieces to perform because of the speed of French bird noise words that make the whole thing like a tongue-twister. The easiest bit is the several bars of us just intoning "CouCou".
In contrast, I see that you are performing 4'33' by John Cage.
Result of the Kilwinning by election (North Ayrshire Council) Ian Charles Gibson Scottish Family Party – Putting Families First 136 3.4%
Sheila Gibson Scottish National Party (SNP) 916 22.9%
Mary Hume Scottish Labour Party 2,171 54.3%
Ruby Kirkwood Scottish Liberal Democrats 154 3.9%
Chris Lawler Scottish Conservative and Unionist 619 15.5%
By election caused by death of Conservative councillor who was elected as 4th councillor in 2022. Labour elected 1st and 3rd. SNP elected 2nd. This is a strong labour ward in a unionist (orange) town. Home of masonic lodge no.0 and an orange lodge. Nevertheless, a big swing from SNP to Labour.
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Sunak should be sending people on secret missions to France to slash the inflatable boats. That would guarantee a fall in numbers even if not caused by the Rwanda policy.
JUST FOR FUN....... Applying the same swing across Ayshire sees SNP retain North and Arran but Drop Central and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock to.... the Tories. In reality I think those two seats will be interesting three way fights with any combination of results possible. Incumbency may well be enough for the Nats though.
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
Wasn't the original Naqba when the Palestinians "ethnically cleansed" themselves from the region, to allow the invading Arab armies to exterminate all of the Jews?
That wasn't a genocide either
If your view gets any more contorted, you'll end up saying the massacre at Deir Yassin and the "cleansing" of Haifa were fake news with crisis actors, just as some people who don't know right from wrong spread it about that the murder of Muhammad al-Durrah was a hoax or even a Palestinian snuff film. But to answer the question, no, the Naqba of 1948 in which at least 750000 Palestinians were displaced by Zionist terror wasn't when Palestinians ethnically cleansed themselves.
PS Many are paying attention to Rafah and the south, which is good, but we mustn't forget the north of Gaza which is where right now there are the worst food shortages - hundreds of thousands of civilians on the brink of starvation, a position that only sickos will make jokes about.
On Eurovision, I think our 2015 entry by Electro Velvet was underappreciated.
FPT:
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
The one time we’ve done well recently was with Sam Ryder who would have won if it hadn’t been for the pesky Russians invading Ukraine. He had become massively popular organically over tik tok during the pandemic and was being invited onto radio stations all over Europe well before Eurovision. His song was also different and uplifting and he had a ridiculously strong voice and presence.
Last year they went back to type and used an industry plant someone wanted to break through who couldn’t sing an ordinary song. This year it’s another insider who was good with his band Years and Years (their song King would have done well at Eurovision) he’s loved in media circles as a gay actor and singer and so he has been given the nod with an insipid song that sounds like a pet shop boys B-side at best and has no oomph.
The selectors just don’t get it - Eurovision isn’t about what their industry mates think is working on algorithms but is about edge and weirdness or banging performances. It also needs to catch on in Europe well before the show.
Unfortunately it’s just the UK media sector looking inwards as usual and agents pulling favours - a great example was Paddy Mcguiness getting radio 2 gigs when he’s an absolute bore. One of the bosses of R2 was a big booster of his career in her previous job and his agency was allegedly pushing him for jobs and holding out their other clients for appearances or pulling them if they did not get what they wanted.
They are too convinced that the UK and the US are the top when it comes to music but they aren’t listening to European radio stations where there are a lot of huge acts that pass them by - like Manneskin for example who were huge in Europe and then in the UK after Eurovision it’s as if they were a lucky breakout band and they should be honoured to perform in the UK.
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Israel is now into 3.6 (or 5/2) on Betfair, 3/1 in a place with the books. Squeaky bum time for those who laid Israel at 66/1 or more just yesterday. Is this an over-correction though? Even if there is. as you suggest, a pro-Israeli plot amongst the public in every country in Eurovision-land, remember there is the jury vote too.
66 yesterday? Very sorry I missed that!
Even now the money is still piling on Israel. 5/2 with the books is fast disappearing and Betfair is already shorter.
ETA my mole on the Betfair forum reckons the Italian televote numbers were leaked, and gave 40 per cent to Israel, which is massive.
Israel getting a landslide win, as Ukraine got a couple of years ago, would be hillarious on so many levels.
Mossad plot, Jews control the media, you can hear the conspiracy theories now. Mind you, has anyone actually said Israel's is the best song?
JUST FOR FUN....... Applying the same swing across Ayshire sees SNP retain North and Arran but Drop Central and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock to.... the Tories. In reality I think those two seats will be interesting three way fights with any combination of results possible. Incumbency may well be enough for the Nats though.
The town of Kilwinning is split between North and Central Ayrshire constituencies. North has the more prosperous bits, with a huge private housing estate. It is a commuter town, with an excellent train service to Glasgow.
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
+ whooping cough
The same UK economy, that despite all the official doomsters, grew 0.6 % in the last three months? That economy? The NHS is slowly recovering from Covid, as are other health systems round the world. Some schools have issues in their buildings, many do not. Water companies has become an issue partly due to better monitoring and reporting - we now know about the problems.
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
It would be a mistake for Sunak to go around trying to re-frame it like that.
"It's not that bad."
Indeed, "UK officially out of recession" just reminds people that we were, at least notionally, in a recession. I'd forgotten.
People have short memories. Give it 6 months and an interest rate cut and things will look different. Starmer hasnt said anything much in terms of how he'd do things better.
I was in Aberdeen yesterday and the property guys were sounding bullish. Oil and gas is on the up. So if the mood starts to turn so will the polls.
Possible. But then I think Sunak starts to be a real drag on the Conservatives. I don't see his personal ratings changing, even if the economy improves.
Sunaks hardly inspirational, but then neither is Starmer, Whats the point of SKS, he has no principles, no policies, no plan. His raison d'etre seems to be Im not Sunak.
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
Wasn't the original Naqba when the Palestinians "ethnically cleansed" themselves from the region, to allow the invading Arab armies to exterminate all of the Jews?
That wasn't a genocide either
With 15k Palestinians killed, ethnically cleansing themselves must have been a risky business. A lot of trip hazards I expect.
And yet they still didn't learn the lesson to not try to exterminate all of the Jews
On Eurovision, I think our 2015 entry by Electro Velvet was underappreciated.
FPT:
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
Sophie Ellis-Bextor always had a big fanbase in Russia and I think she was fairly big in France too.
The closest I can think of that fits your criteria is Shampoo: "Uh ok, we're in trouble..." But they're probably way past it now.
Just Stop Oil says two protesters in their 80s have broken the glass around the Magna Carta at the British Library.
The climate activist group said Reverend Dr Sue Parfitt, 82, and Judy Bruce, an 85-year-old retired biology teacher, entered the library and smashed the glass enclosure around the historic document.
According to Just Stop Oil, the pair then glued themselves to the enclosure holding a sign which read "the government is breaking the law", and could be heard saying: "Is the government above the law?"
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Labour could indeed self-destruct in months but they'd still be the government for the rest of this decade.
Just Stop Oil says two protesters in their 80s have broken the glass around the Magna Carta at the British Library.
The climate activist group said Reverend Dr Sue Parfitt, 82, and Judy Bruce, an 85-year-old retired biology teacher, entered the library and smashed the glass enclosure around the historic document.
According to Just Stop Oil, the pair then glued themselves to the enclosure holding a sign which read "the government is breaking the law", and could be heard saying: "Is the government above the law?"
The irony of these wanky old twats attacking, as a “protest”, one of the key documents that gives them that right to protest. It’s probably lost on them
Death penalty for anybody who tries to ruin the original Magna Carta.
More like - shoot them on sight
given its the same bunch of nutters on the protests, when theyre out stopping traffic we need to run a counter protest inside their houses and spray everything orange,
On Eurovision, I think our 2015 entry by Electro Velvet was underappreciated.
FPT:
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
Sophie Ellis-Bextor always had a big fanbase in Russia and I think she was fairly big in France too.
The closest I can think of that fits your criteria is Shampoo: "Uh ok, we're in trouble..." But they're probably way past it now.
She also didn’t write Murder on the Dance floor, it was written by the guy from the Brand New Radicals who did “you only get what you give” and they were going to release MOTD themselves but it ended up being passed on to her so even if she did front it she would need a great songwriter.
Maybe a supergroup of Elton John, Ed Sheeran, Brian May, Ringo Starr and Paul MacCartney would be amusing but chances are they would still lose to a crazy trans death metal opera song sung in Sami language.
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Why would he scrap it in the event that it works? Just because he said he fucking wouldn't?
Just Stop Oil says two protesters in their 80s have broken the glass around the Magna Carta at the British Library.
The climate activist group said Reverend Dr Sue Parfitt, 82, and Judy Bruce, an 85-year-old retired biology teacher, entered the library and smashed the glass enclosure around the historic document.
According to Just Stop Oil, the pair then glued themselves to the enclosure holding a sign which read "the government is breaking the law", and could be heard saying: "Is the government above the law?"
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
Wasn't the original Naqba when the Palestinians "ethnically cleansed" themselves from the region, to allow the invading Arab armies to exterminate all of the Jews?
That wasn't a genocide either
With 15k Palestinians killed, ethnically cleansing themselves must have been a risky business. A lot of trip hazards I expect.
And yet they still didn't learn the lesson to not try to exterminate all of the Jews
And they still haven't. Will they ever?
Yeah, why oh why won't people learn the lessons from thousands of them being killed? I guess Israel will be learning the lesson of October 7th and treating Palestinians like shit for decades any day now.
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Labour could indeed self-destruct in months but they'd still be the government for the rest of this decade.
All bets are off for the election after this one. Starmer could be the British Olaf Scholz.
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Why would he scrap it in the event that it works? Just because he said he fucking wouldn't?
I thought he'd said the opposite - i.e. that he'd scrap it whatever?
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Thing is, what they should be comparing is numbers with Rwanda vs hypothetical numbers without Rwanda. Rather than numbers this year vs last year. It's quite possible absolute numbers rise this summer compared with 2023 when there was an Albania-deal based reduction, but are still lower due to deterrent effect. But Labour would be able to say Rwanda had no effect. Arguing numbers are lower vs a hypothetical alternate reality is exactly the same challenge as faces remainers arguing there's been an economic hit from Brexit.
I'm glad I'm not in Starmer's shoes though. I object to the scheme on humanitarian grounds because it's us abrogating our responsibilities under the UN refugee convention while not opening any safe and legal routes. But as a politician I would know that sort of argument doesn't work with many voters.
On Eurovision, I think our 2015 entry by Electro Velvet was underappreciated.
FPT:
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
Sophie Ellis-Bextor always had a big fanbase in Russia and I think she was fairly big in France too.
The closest I can think of that fits your criteria is Shampoo: "Uh ok, we're in trouble..." But they're probably way past it now.
She also didn’t write Murder on the Dance floor, it was written by the guy from the Brand New Radicals who did “you only get what you give” and they were going to release MOTD themselves but it ended up being passed on to her so even if she did front it she would need a great songwriter.
Maybe a supergroup of Elton John, Ed Sheeran, Brian May, Ringo Starr and Paul MacCartney would be amusing but chances are they would still lose to a crazy trans death metal opera song sung in Sami language.
Still, France’s is worse than ours.
One of the reassuring certainties of Eurovision is that the French entry will always be roughly as bad as the UK one.
Just Stop Oil says two protesters in their 80s have broken the glass around the Magna Carta at the British Library.
The climate activist group said Reverend Dr Sue Parfitt, 82, and Judy Bruce, an 85-year-old retired biology teacher, entered the library and smashed the glass enclosure around the historic document.
According to Just Stop Oil, the pair then glued themselves to the enclosure holding a sign which read "the government is breaking the law", and could be heard saying: "Is the government above the law?"
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Thing is, what they should be comparing is numbers with Rwanda vs hypothetical numbers without Rwanda. Rather than numbers this year vs last year. It's quite possible absolute numbers rise this summer compared with 2023 when there was an Albania-deal based reduction, but are still lower due to deterrent effect. But Labour would be able to say Rwanda had no effect. Arguing numbers are lower vs a hypothetical alternate reality is exactly the same challenge as faces remainers arguing there's been an economic hit from Brexit.
I'm glad I'm not in Starmer's shoes though. I object to the scheme on humanitarian grounds because it's us abrogating our responsibilities under the UN refugee convention while not opening any safe and legal routes. But as a politician I would know that sort of argument doesn't work with many voters.
When Blair was in government it seemed to have been accepted by everybody that our obligations under the convention were unsustainable in the era of globalisation. Why has this been collectively forgotten?
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
Wasn't the original Naqba when the Palestinians "ethnically cleansed" themselves from the region, to allow the invading Arab armies to exterminate all of the Jews?
That wasn't a genocide either
With 15k Palestinians killed, ethnically cleansing themselves must have been a risky business. A lot of trip hazards I expect.
And yet they still didn't learn the lesson to not try to exterminate all of the Jews
And they still haven't. Will they ever?
Yeah, why oh why won't people learn the lessons from thousands of them being killed? I guess Israel will be learning the lesson of October 7th and treating Palestinians like shit for decades any day now.
October 7th: the singular achievement for their people claimed by the Hamas 'government'
Just Stop Oil says two protesters in their 80s have broken the glass around the Magna Carta at the British Library.
The climate activist group said Reverend Dr Sue Parfitt, 82, and Judy Bruce, an 85-year-old retired biology teacher, entered the library and smashed the glass enclosure around the historic document.
According to Just Stop Oil, the pair then glued themselves to the enclosure holding a sign which read "the government is breaking the law", and could be heard saying: "Is the government above the law?"
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Thing is, what they should be comparing is numbers with Rwanda vs hypothetical numbers without Rwanda. Rather than numbers this year vs last year. It's quite possible absolute numbers rise this summer compared with 2023 when there was an Albania-deal based reduction, but are still lower due to deterrent effect. But Labour would be able to say Rwanda had no effect. Arguing numbers are lower vs a hypothetical alternate reality is exactly the same challenge as faces remainers arguing there's been an economic hit from Brexit.
I'm glad I'm not in Starmer's shoes though. I object to the scheme on humanitarian grounds because it's us abrogating our responsibilities under the UN refugee convention while not opening any safe and legal routes. But as a politician I would know that sort of argument doesn't work with many voters.
Easiest is probably going to be to say "it's ruinously expensive and we can't afford it". Nix it with a bullet point on page fifteen of the 2025 Spending Review.
Just Stop Oil says two protesters in their 80s have broken the glass around the Magna Carta at the British Library.
The climate activist group said Reverend Dr Sue Parfitt, 82, and Judy Bruce, an 85-year-old retired biology teacher, entered the library and smashed the glass enclosure around the historic document.
According to Just Stop Oil, the pair then glued themselves to the enclosure holding a sign which read "the government is breaking the law", and could be heard saying: "Is the government above the law?"
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Thing is, what they should be comparing is numbers with Rwanda vs hypothetical numbers without Rwanda. Rather than numbers this year vs last year. It's quite possible absolute numbers rise this summer compared with 2023 when there was an Albania-deal based reduction, but are still lower due to deterrent effect. But Labour would be able to say Rwanda had no effect. Arguing numbers are lower vs a hypothetical alternate reality is exactly the same challenge as faces remainers arguing there's been an economic hit from Brexit.
I'm glad I'm not in Starmer's shoes though. I object to the scheme on humanitarian grounds because it's us abrogating our responsibilities under the UN refugee convention while not opening any safe and legal routes. But as a politician I would know that sort of argument doesn't work with many voters.
When Blair was in government it seemed to have been accepted by everybody that our obligations under the convention were unsustainable in the era of globalisation. Why has this been collectively forgotten?
"Seemed to have been accepted by everybody". Speak for yourself.
The irony of these wanky old twats attacking, as a “protest”, one of the key documents that gives them that right to protest. It’s probably lost on them
Though on the other side there are those wanky old twats who revere Magna Carta that gives folk the right to protest yet want these protestors shot.
Key takeaway: there are a load of wanky old twats about.
There’s an opportunity for the Tories medium term here
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Yes he is relying on the flights not reducing the boats. If the policy even looks like starting to work saying you'd scrap it and put Sniffer of the Yard on the case is going to be a net negative. If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
Thing is, what they should be comparing is numbers with Rwanda vs hypothetical numbers without Rwanda. Rather than numbers this year vs last year. It's quite possible absolute numbers rise this summer compared with 2023 when there was an Albania-deal based reduction, but are still lower due to deterrent effect. But Labour would be able to say Rwanda had no effect. Arguing numbers are lower vs a hypothetical alternate reality is exactly the same challenge as faces remainers arguing there's been an economic hit from Brexit.
I'm glad I'm not in Starmer's shoes though. I object to the scheme on humanitarian grounds because it's us abrogating our responsibilities under the UN refugee convention while not opening any safe and legal routes. But as a politician I would know that sort of argument doesn't work with many voters.
When Blair was in government it seemed to have been accepted by everybody that our obligations under the convention were unsustainable in the era of globalisation. Why has this been collectively forgotten?
"Seemed to have been accepted by everybody". Speak for yourself.
Blair’s rhetoric about the abuse of the asylum system was fairly uncontroversial at the time.
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
Bibi is gearing up for a second Nakba. It isn't genocide but it is definitely ethnic cleansing.
Wasn't the original Naqba when the Palestinians "ethnically cleansed" themselves from the region, to allow the invading Arab armies to exterminate all of the Jews?
That wasn't a genocide either
With 15k Palestinians killed, ethnically cleansing themselves must have been a risky business. A lot of trip hazards I expect.
And yet they still didn't learn the lesson to not try to exterminate all of the Jews
And they still haven't. Will they ever?
"We killed 15,000 of you last time. Learn your lesson or we will slaughter you again" isn't the moral high ground you think it is.
And then Israelis try to turn around and pretend they are a beacon of liberal democratic values.
I would love to see a reboot of “The trip” but with Joey Barton and Lawrence Fox travelling around together winding each other up into more and more nutty positions.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vgtp0wh8UE
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention.
LAB 44 (-)
CON 24 (-2)
LD 10 (+1)
GRN 7 (+4)
RFM 8 (-2)
SNP 2 (-1)
OTH 5 (-)F/w 9th - 10th May. Changes vs. 29th April 2024.
Meanwhile, the US Congress are getting quite upset about the refusal of F1 (FOM/Liberty) to admit Andretti, after the FIA gave them approval, and have subpoenaed emails and documents related to the decision, which looks from the outside as an organisation acting as a cartel to refuse a new entrant against their own written rules.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24653590-file_8867
just saying
Whether Starmer does reduce crossings remains to be seen, but Sunak saying he will stop the boats only to increase them feels somewhat empty.
I think the pattern that we'd expected after the locals - Greens and Lib Dems up, Reform down - is starting to show itself in polling. Several now with Ref declines, and a few with LD increases (Greens more patchy).
Singing one of the two most famous cuckoo-related madrigals next week in my choir's next concert. Not Sumer is icumen in, but the Chant des Oyseaulx by Janequin, which is one of the most fiendishly difficult pieces to perform because of the speed of French bird noise words that make the whole thing like a tongue-twister. The easiest bit is the several bars of us just intoning "CouCou".
as I believe I am. Across gargano?
But they have a noom issue as virtually all buildings get replaced regularly due to earthquakes and then fires
I ended up going for sausage, bacon, eggs and chips after two beers. I'm now enjoying that for brunch with a couple of copas de vino tinto
I love Basque world, where morning boozing is entirely unremarkable!
We are faced with the most appalling set of options
Are we expected to believe Europe isn't already pursuing these gangs??
Also we are talking billions of dollars so it’s very strange that political pressure is being applied but no court case triggered
Stabilisation over the next couple of weeks to a new baseline imo which is something like 43 24 10 10/11 6 SNP 2 or 3 others 3 to 5 Lab, Con, Ref, LD, Green
Life isn't all rosy in the UK, far from it, but its not as bad as some like to paint it.
ETA my mole on the Betfair forum reckons the Italian televote numbers were leaked, and gave 40 per cent to Israel, which is massive.
"It's not that bad."
Indeed, "UK officially out of recession" just reminds people that we were, at least notionally, in a recession. I'd forgotten.
'The shadow foreign secretary was addressing US Republicans during a speech in Washington'
Twat.
That wasn't a genocide either
And journalists are really starting to scrutinise Labour policy. Yvette Cooper on Today this morning was getting quite a hard time over small boats plans, more akin to what they might expect in an election campaign. Now the locals are over and the media expects Labour to win, this is only going to increase.
What will that do for polling? Probably not much to start with, but over time I think I can start to sense the seeds being sown for some Tory swingback ahead of the election. Another reason Sunak is probably right to go long on election date.
Labour's 'no growth to low growth' is also silly, we can now call Reeves a failure every time she is under 0.5% in a quarter. 0.6% is a respectable figure, they should all be rather more measured in presenting it
“Not to nitpick but @Keir_Starmer's Small Boats Command seems to be essentially identical to the existing Small Boats Operational Command, which launched last year with the same people doing the same thing... gov.uk/government/new…
https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1788839285266792857?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
If Rwanda starts to work and deter boats and send people to Ireland - as is possible - is starmer really going to cancel it after the election? He will surely have to as he is now so committed to doing so
Imagine he does - cancels an effective policy - and then the boats return to present levels or even increase
Labour could self destruct in months
Alternatively phrased: “Please judge, we are smol bean uwu lawyers & the mean claimant didn’t tell us we were forfeiting the case.”
Not surprised the judge was unimpressed, but I guess they had to try.
If, of course, flights do not reduce boats then he's ok
I was in Aberdeen yesterday and the property guys were sounding bullish. Oil and gas is on the up. So if the mood starts to turn so will the polls.
Ian Charles Gibson
Scottish Family Party – Putting Families First
136
3.4%
Sheila Gibson
Scottish National Party (SNP)
916
22.9%
Mary Hume
Scottish Labour Party
2,171
54.3%
Ruby Kirkwood
Scottish Liberal Democrats
154
3.9%
Chris Lawler
Scottish Conservative and Unionist
619
15.5%
By election caused by death of Conservative councillor who was elected as 4th councillor in 2022. Labour elected 1st and 3rd. SNP elected 2nd. This is a strong labour ward in a unionist (orange) town. Home of masonic lodge no.0 and an orange lodge. Nevertheless, a big swing from SNP to Labour.
Labour: 2171 (54.3%, +8.3)
SNP: 916 (22.9%, -12)
Conservative: 619 (15.5%, -0.1)
Lib Dem: 154 (3.9%, +0.4)
Family: 136 (3.4%, new)
Labour elected on first preferences.
JUST FOR FUN.......
Applying the same swing across Ayshire sees SNP retain North and Arran but Drop Central and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock to.... the Tories.
In reality I think those two seats will be interesting three way fights with any combination of results possible. Incumbency may well be enough for the Nats though.
PS Many are paying attention to Rafah and the south, which is good, but we mustn't forget the north of Gaza which is where right now there are the worst food shortages - hundreds of thousands of civilians on the brink of starvation, a position that only sickos will make jokes about.
Last year they went back to type and used an industry plant someone wanted to break through who couldn’t sing an ordinary song. This year it’s another insider who was good with his band Years and Years (their song King would have done well at Eurovision) he’s loved in media circles as a gay actor and singer and so he has been given the nod with an insipid song that sounds like a pet shop boys B-side at best and has no oomph.
The selectors just don’t get it - Eurovision isn’t about what their industry mates think is working on algorithms but is about edge and weirdness or banging performances. It also needs to catch on in Europe well before the show.
Unfortunately it’s just the UK media sector looking inwards as usual and agents pulling favours - a great example was Paddy Mcguiness getting radio 2 gigs when he’s an absolute bore. One of the bosses of R2 was a big booster of his career in her previous job and his agency was allegedly pushing him for jobs and holding out their other clients for appearances or pulling them if they did not get what they wanted.
They are too convinced that the UK and the US are the top when it comes to music but they aren’t listening to European radio stations where there are a lot of huge acts that pass them by - like Manneskin for example who were huge in Europe and then in the UK after Eurovision it’s as if they were a lucky breakout band and they should be honoured to perform in the UK.
John Swinney drops the SNP's ill-conceived proposals to introduce gender self-ID into law. Not before time.
https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1788888123784524155
And they still haven't. Will they ever?
The closest I can think of that fits your criteria is Shampoo: "Uh ok, we're in trouble..." But they're probably way past it now.
Just Stop Oil says two protesters in their 80s have broken the glass around the Magna Carta at the British Library.
The climate activist group said Reverend Dr Sue Parfitt, 82, and Judy Bruce, an 85-year-old retired biology teacher, entered the library and smashed the glass enclosure around the historic document.
According to Just Stop Oil, the pair then glued themselves to the enclosure holding a sign which read "the government is breaking the law", and could be heard saying: "Is the government above the law?"
https://news.sky.com/story/just-stop-oil-protesters-in-their-80s-target-magna-carta-13132732
Maybe a supergroup of Elton John, Ed Sheeran, Brian May, Ringo Starr and Paul MacCartney would be amusing but chances are they would still lose to a crazy trans death metal opera song sung in Sami language.
Still, France’s is worse than ours.
LAB: 44% (=)
CON: 24% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
RFM: 8% (-2)
GRN: 7% (+3)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @survation, 9-10 May.
Changes w/ 23-25 Apr.
The Magna Carta?
I guess Israel will be learning the lesson of October 7th and treating Palestinians like shit for decades any day now.
I'm glad I'm not in Starmer's shoes though. I object to the scheme on humanitarian grounds because it's us abrogating our responsibilities under the UN refugee convention while not opening any safe and legal routes. But as a politician I would know that sort of argument doesn't work with many voters.
Key takeaway: there are a load of wanky old twats about.
I have not followed this greatly but seen a few tweets.
I suspect this may cost Mr Barton a few quid.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/jeremy-vine-labelled-a-nonce-as-part-of-sustained-attack-by-joey-barton/ar-BB1m6SvO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=656f7e3936f54c00a199742714c96c07&ei=16
And then Israelis try to turn around and pretend they are a beacon of liberal democratic values.