So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!
They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.
Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast
Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!
The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.
Yes it's noticeable how the target has moved. That said GPD per capita is a stupid measure as well, as Ireland amply demonstrates. For how we are really doing as a population looking at income distribution and growth is much better.
Amazed that the SNP are on 35%. I'd have assumed lots of nationalists would have switched to the Greens or Alba given the circumstances.
It's swinneymania!
Though bringing in Forbes is a positive healing move.
The SNP vote is very sticky despite everything.
It’s about publicity. Alba get very little publicity, apart from continuing smear stories regarding Alex Salmond. The Greens get lots of publicity, although it won’t necessarily encourage voters to switch to them rather than Labour, as much of it is not related to the environment. SNP voters also tend not to take much notice of the media, as it has been overwhelmingly anti SNP for decades, as in crying wolf syndrome.
Nonetheless that’s 61% for NO parties and under 40% for YES parties
The Union is safe for a decade at least; the right time has come and gone
So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!
They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.
Meanwhile, scooching around the Graun this morning they always put this plea up to get people to pay. I mean no wonder CIF is populated by a bunch of loons given they must all be secure in their tinfoil hats cowering under the settee.
"Teams of lawyers from the rich and powerful trying to stop us publishing stories they don’t want you to see.
Lobby groups with opaque funding who are determined to undermine facts about the climate emergency and other established science.
Authoritarian states with no regard for the freedom of the press.
Bad actors spreading disinformation online to undermine democracy.
If you can, please support us on a monthly basis. It takes less than a minute to set up, and you can rest assured that you’re making a big impact every single month in support of open, independent journalism. Thank you."
'Bad actors' - is that a dig at Laurence Fox? Or other celebs talking shit?
(Sits huddled in the corner, gently sobbing about humanity...)
I would like to say this is one of the weirder conspiracy theories out there but to be honest it is mild compared to some. Still complete la-la land. As a conspiracy theory it does seem far more widespread over the last few years though.
Amazed that the SNP are on 35%. I'd have assumed lots of nationalists would have switched to the Greens or Alba given the circumstances.
It's swinneymania!
Though bringing in Forbes is a positive healing move.
The SNP vote is very sticky despite everything.
It’s about publicity. Alba get very little publicity, apart from continuing smear stories regarding Alex Salmond. The Greens get lots of publicity, although it won’t necessarily encourage voters to switch to them rather than Labour, as much of it is not related to the environment. SNP voters also tend not to take much notice of the media, as it has been overwhelmingly anti SNP for decades, as in crying wolf syndrome.
Nonetheless that’s 61% for NO parties and under 40% for YES parties
The Union is safe for a decade at least; the right time has come and gone
Yes. As pro independence voters realise they are not going to get independence via the SNP any time soon, some are moving back to their previous parties - usually Labour. It doesn’t mean they are no longer pro independence, though.
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.
Coincidence?
I think not.
It's hilarious we still have the likes of the OECD and IMF saying we should be the slowest and definitely will be next year.
Still obsessed by Brexit.
Its remarkable that these idiots get any air time.
I have no problem with forecasters getting air time, but I do wish that they had to answer for their record more often. The media rarely goes back and assesses whether or not forescasts were any cop, all too often forecasts are treated as facts.
Its like have a racing tipster who gets it wrong all the time but still being seen as an expert.
The Bank of England knows its forecasts are rubbish and blames computers.
I still suspect that the "recession" at the end of last year will eventually be eased out of the history books by revisions of the figures. I am also suspicious that the ONS once again has construction in recession in Q1. I still remember when they had it in recession and had to revise that to 4% growth. It seems a particularly difficult sector to monitor and my guess is that the adverse weather effects will have been overstated.
The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.
The last 2 years, however, have been awful with next to no growth at all. The cost of gas and consequential broader inflation really hurt. It will take more than one good quarter to give the Tories anything to boast about.
I think that Q2 will be similar to Q1, at least out in the real world people are buzzing about in a way I've not seen in ages. Plus there's a huge real terms pay rise at the bottom with minimum wage rises, that alone will be worth a few basis points. I think the government will hold the election around a week or after the expected Q3 GDP figures. By then the recession will have become a statistical phantom, we will have seen 3 consecutive quarters of reasonably good growth and there will be feel good factor heading into Christmas for the first time in ages.
I think that depends on your definition of real people. There is definitely serious action at the top end. But I don't see it among most people in most parts of the country. Life still feels tough and public infrastructure is creaking to the point of collapse.
However, I also think that the next election is not one to lose. Growth is going to be better than expected and that will trickle down. Given how low the Tories have set the bar, Labour has a real opportunity to cement itself in power. It will not take much to look much better than the previous incumbents.
(Sits huddled in the corner, gently sobbing about humanity...)
I would like to say this is one of the weirder conspiracy theories out there but to be honest it is mild compared to some. Still complete la-la land. As a conspiracy theory it does seem far more widespread over the last few years though.
It's a new one on me (just Googled, so I'll no doubt get plenty of conspiracy loon ads etc over the next few days )
It would be a supremely imprecise way of spreading spreading anything at ground level, wouldn't it?
Now, we do need to talk about the government-sanctioned devices actually releasing highly toxic gases at ground level
Morning, I’d totally forgotten about the True and Fair party. I’m probably in very good company. I very much doubt anyone has lost sleep worrying about Gina Miller’s ego project.
Morning, I’d totally forgotten about the True and Fair party. I’m probably in very good company. I very much doubt anyone has lost sleep worrying about Gina Miller’s ego project.
Ladbrokes have clearly had a brainstorming session to come up with some new bets to extract some stake money from political betting mugs.
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
You pair do realise we have a Peak District in this country, and that red wine can be purchased in any supermarket, even before breakfast (except Sundays iirc)?
Those odds are generally very ungenerous. The Tories only at 100-1 to increase their majority is nowhere near tempting enough even for a Hail Mary bet, surely.
Morning, I’d totally forgotten about the True and Fair party. I’m probably in very good company. I very much doubt anyone has lost sleep worrying about Gina Miller’s ego project.
Well, Maybe Ms Miller herself
I think there's a market for an honest party, not named as such, but something like The Shysters and Chancers but Let's Be Honest We're No Worse Than The Others Party. Or we could have a law that, each year, parties are officially renamed according to focus group findings. So we'd have, at present, something like the Useless Nasty Party versus the Boring Principle-Free Party at the next election, with - in England - the Who Are They? Party and the Watermelon Party as also-rans.
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
You pair do realise we have a Peak District in this country, and that red wine can be purchased in any supermarket, even before breakfast (except Sundays iirc)?
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
I am on some high grazing land the Japanese created amongst tropical forest to breed Oxen for ploughing.
There are now water buffalo instead. When charged, one hides behind a set of three poles, if they can be located in time:
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
I'm very glad that I've inspired you to put a bit more walk into your work. I'm sure that you'll find it more fulfilling
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
I can see a lot of very safe inner city Labour seats having reduced majorities at the next general election. Corbyn may also now win as an independent in Islington North. I doubt it will have a huge impact on the overall result, though.
Those odds are generally very ungenerous. The Tories only at 100-1 to increase their majority is nowhere near tempting enough even for a Hail Mary bet, surely.
Depending on the pace of defections, increasing the Conservative majority might be... no, you are probably right.
Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.
Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.
Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
That's just the point: it's all politics.
Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.
Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
Yes, I like to think I'm relaxed about paying tax and I'd cheerfully affect a rise in the higher rate to, say, 42%, but I put a chunk into my work pension fund last year to stay under the £100K mark as an effective marginal rate of nearly 60% just seems unreasonable, when people earning twice as much are paying a lower percentage. It's not a cunning Conservative plot to assist high earners, just an indefensible anomaly.
Didn't you vote in favour of allowance withdrawal in 2009, Nick? Seems more than a bit hypocritical for you to avoid it now.
Morning, I’d totally forgotten about the True and Fair party. I’m probably in very good company. I very much doubt anyone has lost sleep worrying about Gina Miller’s ego project.
Dominic Cummings also looking to start another populist anti-establishment pro-Putinist party.
So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!
They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.
Brilliant point. Politicians listening to those with differing opinions or not following the power of the rosette blindly with true devotion can only lead to disaster.
John Swinney said in a BBC int yesterday that the UK Supreme Court halted Holyrood's gender self-ID Bill. He repeated this on Sky News today despite being picked up for it last night
Scotland's Court of Session upheld the UK Gov veto. Scot Gov did NOT appeal to UK Supreme Court
UNRWA (which as a reminder is the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees) has shut its HQ in East Jerusalem after an arson attack by a group of Israelis, some of them armed, chanted "Burn down the United Nations" before setting the building on fire.
Meanwhile the Karem Abu Salem crossing in the south (also known as Kerem Shalom) has "officially" been reopened but apparently no actual supplies are coming in through it because of security fears. We can argue about the meaning of the word "open", but this doesn't help people who need those supplies.
You are such a rebellious Old Wok. Time to grow up now though.
Never mind the cooking pan, antique or otherwise.
1. The attack on the UN building in East Jerusalem is important information for those who wish to perform a Bayesian update on the possibility of a red heifer sacrifice.
Will the Netanyahu government condemn, hunt, or arrest the perpetrators of the violence against the UN? If the answer is "no", I wonder how long the British Consulate General in Jerusalem will be allowed to exist? Bear in mind that the RAF has been airdropping aid, including food, to northern Gaza. (Remember the USS Liberty.)
Hopefully James Bond will save the world by putting his jacket on the poor animal's back, thereby flattening a few hairs and rendering it unsuitable for the wicked knife ritual. Even an Old Etonian can render the world a service, albeit without knowing how to fetch a woman a chair.
2. As for the south, a similar narrative of ostensibly para-state violence orchestrated together with the army violence ("hybrid warfare" in mezzobrow-speak?) seems to be coming together there too. Israeli "settlers" have blocked a road to stop aid getting into Gaza through the Karem Abu Salem crossing.
@PickardJE Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.
first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation
What a disgrace.
A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.
First they came for the lawyers and I said nothing...
Good morning all.
Makes a nice change from "first all the lawyers came for me".
(See the Ghost of George Carman and the nearest blonde or Carter-F*ck passim.)
Morning, I’d totally forgotten about the True and Fair party. I’m probably in very good company. I very much doubt anyone has lost sleep worrying about Gina Miller’s ego project.
Dominic Cummings also looking to start another populist anti-establishment pro-Putinist party.
Cummings is a pillock, an intelligent pillock, but still a pillock. His biggest issue is a fatal lack of humility, he is aware he’s intelligent he just assumes that means everyone else is stupid. He’s entirely incapable of understanding that other people might have ideas that are equally worthy of consideration to anything he dreams up whilst chugging on his ideological crack pipe.
Those odds are generally very ungenerous. The Tories only at 100-1 to increase their majority is nowhere near tempting enough even for a Hail Mary bet, surely.
You can get no overall Tory seat loss for 210 at Betfair.
Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.
Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.
Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
It i sstill a bitch if you are trapped in it
I'm not trapped in it, but can one not give that top chunk of post-tax income to charity and smugly enjoy the Government adding more on top than your initial donation?
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
...Why don’t reporters pick pols up on this stuff?...
The concept of a "reporter" as somebody who goes out, interviews people, ascertains facts, sorts them into some sort of order, then reports it, is gradually disappearing. The infrastructure that sustained them (local newspapers for local stuff/training and national newspapers with larger budgets) is fading away, and papers are being replaced by online gossip sites (for want of a better word) that have a physical paper as a loss-leader. "Reporters" are being replaced by "commentators" chatting or interviewing people online, which is more about producing "content" instead of "analysis". If we now expect reportage, we're going to have to do it ourselves...
Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast
Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!
Meanwhile, scooching around the Graun this morning they always put this plea up to get people to pay. I mean no wonder CIF is populated by a bunch of loons given they must all be secure in their tinfoil hats cowering under the settee.
"Teams of lawyers from the rich and powerful trying to stop us publishing stories they don’t want you to see.
Lobby groups with opaque funding who are determined to undermine facts about the climate emergency and other established science.
Authoritarian states with no regard for the freedom of the press.
Bad actors spreading disinformation online to undermine democracy.
If you can, please support us on a monthly basis. It takes less than a minute to set up, and you can rest assured that you’re making a big impact every single month in support of open, independent journalism. Thank you."
Agree.
I'm sceptical about those aspects of the Graun, especially as the financial structure was set up deliberately to avoid tax (around 1931?) and now sits on an endowment of (last time I looked) a billion or so.
Plus items such as sales of subsidiaries via tax havens to 'avoid' UK tax.
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
I'm very glad that I've inspired you to put a bit more walk into your work. I'm sure that you'll find it more fulfilling
lol ta. Only teasing - I greatly enjoy your travelogues
And yes I am really enjoying the walking - you have inspired me. When it gets boring I put on an audiobook
Those odds are generally very ungenerous. The Tories only at 100-1 to increase their majority is nowhere near tempting enough even for a Hail Mary bet, surely.
You can get no overall Tory seat loss for 210 at Betfair.
Is that numbers, or seats. For instance if the Tories were to solely lose Burnley and gain Perth & Kinroshire would the bet win ?
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Interesting thought. It’s the FPTP effect in song contest voting. But the voting isn’t quite FPTP because each country awards points to multiple entries. So you could see Israel regularly getting a few points from each but not enough douzes.
My word, and expert in financial service compliance/regulations and irony, he sounds familiar.
A former Locke Lord partner has been jailed for 15 years for his part in two frauds totalling £25m.
Jonathan Denton worked in the London office of US firm Locke Lord from 2012 to 2015, as an expert in FSA compliance regulations, and presumably irony. During his time he was paid around £21m from investors into the firm's client account, but with no verifiable returns going to the investors.
Locke Lord was fined £500k by the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal in 2017, for failing to prevent Denton from involving himself and the firm in transactions "that bore the hallmarks of dubious financial arrangements or investment schemes" and failing to "properly supervise" the lawyer. At the time it was the largest fine handed down to a firm by the SDT, but has since been matched.
Denton was struck off in 2018 and ordered to pay £70,000 after the tribunal found his conduct was "a flagrant breach of the trust placed in him by his clients and investors who relied on his status as a solicitor" and he "had caused significant harm to individual investors".
Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast
Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!
So real French "Zincs" still exist.
I was only in France for a few hours, and only had one (not nice, and expensive) beer there
There were no rooms within 25km of Saint Jean. Apparently there's some big, long distance running race starting there today
I had to get a cab to the nearest hotel I could find, back in Basque land. The old Basque boys start early; I've been inspired/corrupted and am looking for a shaded place to get a beer. It's 30⁰C here already and I've got two hours to wait from my bus
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
@PickardJE Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.
first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation
What a disgrace.
A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.
First they came for the lawyers and I said nothing...
Good morning all.
Makes a nice change from "first all the lawyers came for me".
(See the Ghost of George Carman and the nearest blonde or Carter-F*ck passim.)
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
Morning, I’d totally forgotten about the True and Fair party. I’m probably in very good company. I very much doubt anyone has lost sleep worrying about Gina Miller’s ego project.
Dominic Cummings also looking to start another populist anti-establishment pro-Putinist party.
Cummings is a pillock, an intelligent pillock, but still a pillock. His biggest issue is a fatal lack of humility, he is aware he’s intelligent he just assumes that means everyone else is stupid. He’s entirely incapable of understanding that other people might have ideas that are equally worthy of consideration to anything he dreams up whilst chugging on his ideological crack pipe.
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Interesting thought. It’s the FPTP effect in song contest voting. But the voting isn’t quite FPTP because each country awards points to multiple entries. So you could see Israel regularly getting a few points from each but not enough douzes.
You also need to allow that half the votes come from each countries Juries. These are not likely to go to Israel as it was a pretty unremarkable song, and no decent gimmick.
Israel maybe top 5 but it isn't going to win.
I suspect the EBU doesn't want to do the show from Tel Aviv either. Not that it is ever rigged!
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Interesting thought. It’s the FPTP effect in song contest voting. But the voting isn’t quite FPTP because each country awards points to multiple entries. So you could see Israel regularly getting a few points from each but not enough douzes.
You also need to allow that half the votes come from each countries Juries. These are not likely to go to Israel as it was a pretty unremarkable song, and no decent gimmick.
Israel maybe top 5 but it isn't going to win.
I suspect the EBU doesn't want to do the show from Tel Aviv either. Not that it is ever rigged!
Tel Aviv? They'll be put in occupied Jerusalem or a settlement in the West Bank as a f-you to the world.
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
I can see a lot of very safe inner city Labour seats having reduced majorities at the next general election. Corbyn may also now win as an independent in Islington North. I doubt it will have a huge impact on the overall result, though.
I think there will be an impact here and Labour will drop some unexpected seats because of it.
But, I come at this from the perspective of a Kirklees resident, Kirklees being the other council, aside from Oldham, that Labour lost control of due to pro-Palestinian voting and I'm keen to understand the extent.
So, Kirklees covers 4 and a bit parliamentary seats on the new boundaries and they voted as follows:
- Colne Valley and Ossett and Denby Dale: retained fairly comfortable Labour pluralities of approximately 10% with little effect from Gaza voting. These are pretty rural and small town/village constituencies, and have been ripped away from or have had ripped away any wards where pro-Palestinian voting could be significant. Labour should be confident here. Formally 2 x Lab gains from GE19. - Huddersfield: Labour narrowly retained a plurality of about 1% in the constituency, over the Green party, suffering over 10% swing against in the process. Worth noting that Green strength here is not entirely dependent on Gaza and they were second in the LEs last year. There is established Green / Labour cross voting and Labour should be safe in a GE, Greens more likely to be challenging Con for second, but there will be an influence. - Spen Valley: taking many of the posher bits of Batley & Spen and Dewsbury, this is now the most favourable Conservative prospect in the whole of West Yorkshire afaict. There is one ward, Heckmondwike, with a pro-Palestine vote, and as a result Conservative gained plurality from Labour on a 2% swing. I cannot immediately think of too many seats nationally where Palestine voting could tip a Labour / Conservative marginal but this is one. But the GE is a separate contest and Kim Leadbeater is contesting who has some base with LD and even Tory LE voters, so it very much feels like groundhog day from her by-election performance to me. But it is a little more marginal than it might be. - Dewsbury & Batley: Independents comfortably mullered Labour at the locals large swings of 30% plus in places. If that repeats, and I think that is possible, a very comfortable Labour hold looks in a lot of doubt.
All in all, there is a realistic prospect of Labour coming up 2 MPs short in these 5 contests.
I also looked at Ashton-under-Lyne which was far closer than last year on a substantial pro-Palestine swing, but Labour did seem to hold the plurality. Rayner should win, but maybe less comfortably than might have been supposed even after WPB stated they were gunning for her (as an aside, all the candidates doing the damage were Ind, WPB only stood in one ward in Tameside, Hyde Newton, and got 12% (I think they targeted slightly wrong as well, they'd have had more influence on the result in Hyde Godley tbh)).
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
? Those who wish to vote against Israel will vote for Croatia surely. (Not that I know anything about the voting system.)
Anyway WTF has this legacy "Eurovision" been worth since the Eurovision concert planned by Laibach (Europe's greatest contemporary band) in Kiev in 2022 got cancelled?
Similar to the usual market on what words will appear in a budget speech, there should be a market on whether Lilith will change any of the words in "Hurricane".
Maybe she'll take some words from the original "October Rain". E.g. "Never again. I'm still wet from this October rain."
PS Does Eden Golan have that name on her birth certificate?
So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!
They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.
Other side of the mountains - Marche. Rest of the walk so far has been in a wood.
Sensational. Italy is amazing. Possibly even lovelier than France - they must be the two prettiest countries on earth. I’m listening to Zamoyski’s Napoleon as I walk - Boney has just reminded his soldiers that “they conquered the most beautiful place in the world - Italy”
Italy is also a lot better than France for Noom - but neither is as good as the UK
F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
Ferrari have a press conference at midday UK time. The Twitter rumour is that Adrian Newey is going to appear in a red shirt.
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
Other side of the mountains - Marche. Rest of the walk so far has been in a wood.
Sensational. Italy is amazing. Possibly even lovelier than France - they must be the two prettiest countries on earth. I’m listening to Zamoyski’s Napoleon as I walk - Boney has just reminded his soldiers that “they conquered the most beautiful place in the world - Italy”
Italy is also a lot better than France for Noom - but neither is as good as the UK
Blinken has said that he opposes the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. He said this to the Egyptian foreign minister, but there are only two crossings from Gaza to Egypt and the Israelis have shut them both. They are forcing people not south to Sinai in Egypt, but north. More than 100,000 have already fled eastern Rafah to the north in the last few days. I still reckon the plan is to throw survivors out on ships (probably paid for by the US), but we shall see. Certainly Blinken is mentioning forced relocation and AFAIAA this is new.
F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
Ferrari have a press conference at midday UK time. The Twitter rumour is that Adrian Newey is going to appear in a red shirt.
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
Can they do that whilst he remains not just contracted to but an active member of staff for RedBull?
FFS Starmer asked what his target is for small boat crossings. No number, he wants to reduce it 'materially' What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
Other side of the mountains - Marche. Rest of the walk so far has been in a wood.
One of those little accidents of geography that the landscapes of the 3 “marches” share quite a lot of attributes: La Marche in France (now mainly in Creuse and Haute Vienne), the Welsh Marches, and Le Marche in Italy. Green rolling hills running down to flat plains. And in all cases somewhat forgotten, hidden regions.
F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
Ferrari have a press conference at midday UK time. The Twitter rumour is that Adrian Newey is going to appear in a red shirt.
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
Can they do that whilst he remains not just contracted to but an active member of staff for RedBull?
What are Red Bull going to do, sue him and see all of the Horny allegations come out in court? The suggestion is that the lady involved in that situation is/was the EA to both gentlemen.
FFS Starmer asked what his target is for small boat crossings. No number, he wants to reduce it 'materially' What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
Empty vessels are exactly what he’s hoping for.
Sensible not to put a number on something that you cannot control.
Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.
Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.
Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
That's just the point: it's all politics.
Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.
Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
Yeah I stepped down a tier to get a job at the 90k ish level now I've got a stupidly large pension pot after years trying to manage the cliffedge *humblebrag*
It looks like there will be pro-Gaza activists standing against them, I posted an article about one standing against veteran Labour MP Steve McCabe at the next election.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
It's not only Muslims. It looks unfair. Abbott has quite a back story and could quickly develop a following. If a grouping stand against every Labour 'Friend of Israel' It could be quite significant. What are Labour 'Friends of Israel' for anyway? Just freeloaders or something else? Why not 'Friends'of somewhere where they might do some good?
We could end up with a whole load of unexpected Tory holds, or even a random gain or two, if the “friends of the proscribed terrorist organisation” put up a load of candidates. How awesome!
The UK economy is buggered, we have a housing crisis, unsustainable (legal) immigration, lack of infrastructure, schools (literally) falling apart, NHS wait times getting worse and worse, trapped leaseholders getting screwed by property developers, water companies pumping raw sewerage everywhere *and* by the looks of things getting bailed out for doing so.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
On Eurovision, I think our 2015 entry by Electro Velvet was underappreciated.
FPT:
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
Other side of the mountains - Marche. Rest of the walk so far has been in a wood.
One of those little accidents of geography that the landscapes of the 3 “marches” share quite a lot of attributes: La Marche in France (now mainly in Creuse and Haute Vienne), the Welsh Marches, and Le Marche in Italy. Green rolling hills running down to flat plains. And in all cases somewhat forgotten, hidden regions.
I first came here twenty five years ago when Umbria was becoming the next Tuscany and Marche was supposed to be the next Umbria. It's still trying. You can drive for an hour on winding, rutted narrow roads and only be five or ten miles in a straight line from where you started.
In the woods back there we found a hunters' refuge, and now I am taking a break next to a memorial from a family grateful for their son's return from the Libyan War, erected in 1913. Given subsequent events one wonders what happened to him after.
On Eurovision, I think our 2015 entry by Electro Velvet was underappreciated.
FPT:
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.
Yes it's noticeable how the target has moved. That said GPD per capita is a stupid measure as well, as Ireland amply demonstrates. For how we are really doing as a population looking at income distribution and growth is much better.
Quick Betting Post on Eurovision: With Gaza front and centre atm geopolitics will probably dominate the voting (as it did when Ukraine won in 22). Where will the geopolitical vote go this time? Easy on the pro-Israeli side. To Israel. They're there in the final. Palestine and the Palestinians, otoh, are not represented, meaning their support needs to unite around some other country, which is not happening - we'd have heard if such a plan was being hatched.
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
Israel is now into 3.6 (or 5/2) on Betfair, 3/1 in a place with the books. Squeaky bum time for those who laid Israel at 66/1 or more just yesterday. Is this an over-correction though? Even if there is. as you suggest, a pro-Israeli plot amongst the public in every country in Eurovision-land, remember there is the jury vote too.
Other side of the mountains - Marche. Rest of the walk so far has been in a wood.
One of those little accidents of geography that the landscapes of the 3 “marches” share quite a lot of attributes: La Marche in France (now mainly in Creuse and Haute Vienne), the Welsh Marches, and Le Marche in Italy. Green rolling hills running down to flat plains. And in all cases somewhat forgotten, hidden regions.
I used to work in La Creuse. It's populated by lunatics.
On Eurovision, I think our 2015 entry by Electro Velvet was underappreciated.
FPT:
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
Just pay the spanner countries to vote for us. Bribery is the way. Or Mr Blobby. Get him in.
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
Eurovision banned in this household due to it being for utter imbeciles. DYOR.
Its come back into fashion in the tubbs household last few years. Helped by 2022 and the UK 'winning', with an act that did the graft, was known in Europe and cared. Just a bit of camp fun, not to be taken seriously.
Eurovision banned in this household due to it being for utter imbeciles. DYOR.
You're just annoyed you did not take the 66/1 against Israel yesterday, and now they are a best-priced 3/1 second-favourite.
Last time I watched it was because I had a massive crush on Jessica Garlick
Tbh I've never watched Eurovision but find the betting fascinating. Like much specials betting, it is partly a Keynesian beauty contest, with in this case the jury vote and separate audience vote.
Eurovision banned in this household due to it being for utter imbeciles. DYOR.
Its come back into fashion in the tubbs household last few years. Helped by 2022 and the UK 'winning', with an act that did the graft, was known in Europe and cared. Just a bit of camp fun, not to be taken seriously.
Laughed this morning when radio 4 said it was sometimes called the gay Olympics.
Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.
Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.
Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
That's just the point: it's all politics.
Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.
Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
Yes, I like to think I'm relaxed about paying tax and I'd cheerfully affect a rise in the higher rate to, say, 42%, but I put a chunk into my work pension fund last year to stay under the £100K mark as an effective marginal rate of nearly 60% just seems unreasonable, when people earning twice as much are paying a lower percentage. It's not a cunning Conservative plot to assist high earners, just an indefensible anomaly.
Didn't you vote in favour of allowance withdrawal in 2009, Nick? Seems more than a bit hypocritical for you to avoid it now.
Oooh. Bit of noom. Deep in tangled woods I can hear the noonday bells of the shrine of Monte Sant Angelo across the garganian valley. A shrine so old (with possible prehistoric antecedents) it INSPIRED mont st michel
Comments
The Union is safe for a decade at least; the right time has come and gone
I’ve emerged from The Great Shadowy Forest and I’m now on the “pilgrim trail of Monte Sant Angelo”. I’m perched on a dry stone wall looking out over rolling woods and meadows and hills
I can see poppies and orchids. Cyclamens and wild roses. There’s a cuckoo softly hooting in the distance and I haven’t seen a human, let alone a car, for an hour. It’s like the Peak District but in Africa. Fabuloso
Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review
In July 2023 the Court of the Bank of England announced that Dr Ben Bernanke would lead an independent review into the Bank’s forecasting and related processes during times of significant uncertainty. That Review, published on 12 April, provides a thorough assessment of the Bank’s current forecasting approach, and the relationship between the forecast, monetary policy decisions, and their communication
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/independent-evaluation-office/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review?ref=thestack.technology
Response of the Bank of England to the Bernanke review of forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/independent-evaluation-office/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review/response-forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/fiona-bruce-hits-out-at-labour-double-standards-in-diane-abbott-row-on-bbc-question-time/ar-BB1m7sg8?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=5df43ebd74b54bc983cdc1375a3b8bf4&ei=18
However, I also think that the next election is not one to lose. Growth is going to be better than expected and that will trickle down. Given how low the Tories have set the bar, Labour has a real opportunity to cement itself in power. It will not take much to look much better than the previous incumbents.
It would be a supremely imprecise way of spreading spreading anything at ground level, wouldn't it?
Now, we do need to talk about the government-sanctioned devices actually releasing highly toxic gases at ground level
I think there's a market for an honest party, not named as such, but something like The Shysters and Chancers but Let's Be Honest We're No Worse Than The Others Party. Or we could have a law that, each year, parties are officially renamed according to focus group findings. So we'd have, at present, something like the Useless Nasty Party versus the Boring Principle-Free Party at the next election, with - in England - the Who Are They? Party and the Watermelon Party as also-rans.
Labour are definitely changing their tone from being avowedly pro-Israel to a more nuanced position. However I doubt it will be enough for some.
I did raise this as an issue when the conflict arose and the view was it would not really cost labour due to how few seats had a large Muslim element. However it won't only be Muslims who vote for these candidates.
I am on some high grazing land the Japanese created amongst tropical forest to breed Oxen for ploughing.
There are now water buffalo instead. When charged, one hides behind a set of three poles, if they can be located in time:
Although some momentum types in Labour and the Novara lot were unhappy at the new Labour MP for Dover, she has helped labour in the polls.
SKS knows his onions.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/natalie-elphicke-effect-adds-two-points-to-labour-poll-lead-over-tories/ar-BB1m8v0V?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c8cb0abf4b9f4a8eb09817f6d3e936f7&ei=25
John Swinney said in a BBC int yesterday that the UK Supreme Court halted Holyrood's gender self-ID Bill. He repeated this on Sky News today despite being picked up for it last night
Scotland's Court of Session upheld the UK Gov veto. Scot Gov did NOT appeal to UK Supreme Court
https://x.com/chrismusson/status/1788857226037268968
Why don’t reporters pick pols up on this stuff?
1. The attack on the UN building in East Jerusalem is important information for those who wish to perform a Bayesian update on the possibility of a red heifer sacrifice.
Will the Netanyahu government condemn, hunt, or arrest the perpetrators of the violence against the UN? If the answer is "no", I wonder how long the British Consulate General in Jerusalem will be allowed to exist? Bear in mind that the RAF has been airdropping aid, including food, to northern Gaza. (Remember the USS Liberty.)
Hopefully James Bond will save the world by putting his jacket on the poor animal's back, thereby flattening a few hairs and rendering it unsuitable for the wicked knife ritual. Even an Old Etonian can render the world a service, albeit without knowing how to fetch a woman a chair.
2. As for the south, a similar narrative of ostensibly para-state violence orchestrated together with the army violence ("hybrid warfare" in mezzobrow-speak?) seems to be coming together there too. Israeli "settlers" have blocked a road to stop aid getting into Gaza through the Karem Abu Salem crossing.
Makes a nice change from "first all the lawyers came for me".
(See the Ghost of George Carman and the nearest blonde or Carter-F*ck passim.)
On Saturday night we are therefore looking at a consolidated pro-Israeli vote vs nothing on the other side - since you can't vote against Israel remember. It's a dynamic that steers to an Israeli victory - not in Gaza (no winners there) but in the Eurovision Song Contest. Last I checked they (Israel) were available at 5 on the exchange. DYOR etc but I reckon that's value.
I'm sceptical about those aspects of the Graun, especially as the financial structure was set up deliberately to avoid tax (around 1931?) and now sits on an endowment of (last time I looked) a billion or so.
Plus items such as sales of subsidiaries via tax havens to 'avoid' UK tax.
And yes I am really enjoying the walking - you have inspired me. When it gets boring I put on an audiobook
Which forest we know is most like Mirkwood?
Your view beats mine. Umbria?
A former Locke Lord partner has been jailed for 15 years for his part in two frauds totalling £25m.
Jonathan Denton worked in the London office of US firm Locke Lord from 2012 to 2015, as an expert in FSA compliance regulations, and presumably irony. During his time he was paid around £21m from investors into the firm's client account, but with no verifiable returns going to the investors.
Locke Lord was fined £500k by the Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal in 2017, for failing to prevent Denton from involving himself and the firm in transactions "that bore the hallmarks of dubious financial arrangements or investment schemes" and failing to "properly supervise" the lawyer. At the time it was the largest fine handed down to a firm by the SDT, but has since been matched.
Denton was struck off in 2018 and ordered to pay £70,000 after the tribunal found his conduct was "a flagrant breach of the trust placed in him by his clients and investors who relied on his status as a solicitor" and he "had caused significant harm to individual investors".
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/ex-locke-lord-partner-sentenced-15-years-prison
There were no rooms within 25km of Saint Jean. Apparently there's some big, long distance running race starting there today
I had to get a cab to the nearest hotel I could find, back in Basque land. The old Basque boys start early; I've been inspired/corrupted and am looking for a shaded place to get a beer. It's 30⁰C here already and I've got two hours to wait from my bus
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/carter-ruck-mucks-kevin-spacey-case
Israel maybe top 5 but it isn't going to win.
I suspect the EBU doesn't want to do the show from Tel Aviv either. Not that it is ever rigged!
But, I come at this from the perspective of a
Kirklees resident, Kirklees being the other council, aside from Oldham, that Labour lost control of due to pro-Palestinian voting and I'm keen to understand the extent.
So, Kirklees covers 4 and a bit parliamentary seats on the new boundaries and they voted as follows:
- Colne Valley and Ossett and Denby Dale: retained fairly comfortable Labour pluralities of approximately 10% with little effect from Gaza voting. These are pretty rural and small town/village constituencies, and have been ripped away from or have had ripped away any wards where pro-Palestinian voting could be significant. Labour should be confident here. Formally 2 x Lab gains from GE19.
- Huddersfield: Labour narrowly retained a plurality of about 1% in the constituency, over the Green party, suffering over 10% swing against in the process. Worth noting that Green strength here is not entirely dependent on Gaza and they were second in the LEs last year. There is established Green / Labour cross voting and Labour should be safe in a GE, Greens more likely to be challenging Con for second, but there will be an influence.
- Spen Valley: taking many of the posher bits of Batley & Spen and Dewsbury, this is now the most favourable Conservative prospect in the whole of West Yorkshire afaict. There is one ward, Heckmondwike, with a pro-Palestine vote, and as a result Conservative gained plurality from Labour on a 2% swing. I cannot immediately think of too many seats nationally where Palestine voting could tip a Labour / Conservative marginal but this is one. But the GE is a separate contest and Kim Leadbeater is contesting who has some base with LD and even Tory LE voters, so it very much feels like groundhog day from her by-election performance to me. But it is a little more marginal than it might be.
- Dewsbury & Batley: Independents comfortably mullered Labour at the locals large swings of 30% plus in places. If that repeats, and I think that is possible, a very comfortable Labour hold looks in a lot of doubt.
All in all, there is a realistic prospect of Labour coming up 2 MPs short in these 5 contests.
I also looked at Ashton-under-Lyne which was far closer than last year on a substantial pro-Palestine swing, but Labour did seem to hold the plurality. Rayner should win, but maybe less comfortably than might have been supposed even after WPB stated they were gunning for her (as an aside, all the candidates doing the damage were Ind, WPB only stood in one ward in Tameside, Hyde Newton, and got 12% (I think they targeted slightly wrong as well, they'd have had more influence on the result in Hyde Godley tbh)).
Anyway WTF has this legacy "Eurovision" been worth since the Eurovision concert planned by Laibach (Europe's greatest contemporary band) in Kiev in 2022 got cancelled?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOffk1G6OX8
Similar to the usual market on what words will appear in a budget speech, there should be a market on whether Lilith will change any of the words in "Hurricane".
Maybe she'll take some words from the original "October Rain". E.g. "Never again. I'm still wet from this October rain."
PS Does Eden Golan have that name on her birth certificate?
Italy is also a lot better than France for Noom - but neither is as good as the UK
McLaren’s upgrade definitely appears to have made them a clear 2nd, it will be interesting to see how close they are to the RB at a more traditional circuit such as Imola which is up next.
What, as opposed to theoretically?! He is such an empty vessel
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1788767690556854496?s=12
This one in Kaluga Oblast, 3/4 of the way towards Moscow from Kharkiv.
Sensible not to put a number on something that you cannot control.
I really, really, really do not want GE 2024 to be defined by anyone's stance on the Israel/Palestine issue - something which the UK can do precisely nothing about.
The country needs fixing. It does not need politicians grandstanding on foreign affairs they have absolutely eff all control over.
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
In the woods back there we found a hunters' refuge, and now I am taking a break next to a memorial from a family grateful for their son's return from the Libyan War, erected in 1913. Given subsequent events one wonders what happened to him after.
820km (512m), 41km (25.6m) per day
and
1,190,528 steps, 59,526 per day
I've also climbed 13,246 metres, and descended 13,331 metres. I think that's about an Everest and a half
I lost count of the beers
Or Mr Blobby. Get him in.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctuary_of_Monte_Sant'Angelo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw0721l9183o
Any Giant Asian Hornets or Termites, yet?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgyjp7p6yeo
Ahead of the Eurovision final on Saturday, he looked at what bookmakers were saying about his chances of winning the contest.
"My odds for winning are at one per cent," laughs the singer.
"But that’s fine. It’s better than zero."