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We have the first constituency betting market – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 10 in General
imageWe have the first constituency betting market – politicalbetting.com

I have been bemoaning for months about the lack of constituency markets but we do have the first constituency market for the next election, after a fashion.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    edited May 10
    Dave returns to government and the economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    edited May 10
    Sandpit said:

    I’ll take the other side of all of those bets.

    I am planning on doing a thread on the SNP winning more seats than the Tories GB wide.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    edited May 10
    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and I said nothing...
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    No no, he isn't standing down because of that
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and they said nothing...
    …and everyone was happy, so they didn’t come for anyone else?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    Surely the additional private jets and helicopters don't quite make that much of a difference?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    Surely the additional private jets and helicopters don't quite make that much of a difference?
    No, but surely a megaton of tax cuts funded by borrowed money does.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    Surely the additional private jets and helicopters don't quite make that much of a difference?
    It is Sunak with the chopper addiction/problem.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/08/13/rishi-sunaks-chopper-is-going-to-get-him-into-a-lot-of-trouble/
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    I suspect if the Lib Dems win more seats than the Tories, the SNP will also win more seats than the Tories as they would be well and truly in total wipe out territory.

    But that is the interesting part of the next election - because the difference between the Tories winning 200 seats and the Tories win 20 seats will rest as much on external factors as on anything Rishi can do.

    Remember that the Brexit party cost the Tories 38 seats where the Labour majority was smaller than their the Brexit party votes and it's that type of impact we don't know yet..

    And there is no way that SKS and Labour would be in the current position if Bozo had had a majority of 156 rather than 80..
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,950
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and they said nothing...
    …and everyone was happy, so they didn’t come for anyone else?
    The moral structures people build in their heads to justify their actions are interesting.

    I met a couple of lawyers involved with New Labour who seemed to have the following thought process -

    1) something is arguably just about legal
    2) therefore it is legal
    3) therefore it is Good.
    4) therefore it must be done
    5) anyone opposing this is Going Against The Law, and is Evil
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    edited May 10

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and they said nothing...
    Isn't this an internal civil war between lawyers given that the complaint came from (if my memory is correct) Dan Neidle.

    And from memory it's not a hard working lawyer doing their job, it was a hard working lawyer implementing something dubious against someone who knew how the game was played so hit back.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and they said nothing...
    …and everyone was happy, so they didn’t come for anyone else?
    The moral structures people build in their heads to justify their actions are interesting.

    I met a couple of lawyers involved with New Labour who seemed to have the following thought process -

    1) something is arguably just about legal
    2) therefore it is legal
    3) therefore it is Good.
    4) therefore it must be done
    5) anyone opposing this is Going Against The Law, and is Evil
    This the best conversation/thought process.

    Client: Explains their situation/problem

    Lawyer: Explains how to get out of said situation/problem

    Client: Is that legal?

    Lawyer: It is rarely prosecuted

    Lawyer feels they have done brilliantly for the client and deserves a nice payday for their hard work.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and they said nothing...
    Isn't this an internal civil war between lawyers given that the complaint came from (if my memory is correct) Dan Neidle.

    And from memory it's not a hard working lawyer doing their job, it was a hard working lawyer implementing something dubious against someone who knew how the game was played so hit back.
    Dubious doesn't make it wrong.

    FWIW I like this idea of getting the client signing a legal document confirming what is in the SLAPP is true and if it turns out they lied they get charged with perjury.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,260

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and I said nothing...
    They chase Tories nowadays, easier money than chasing ambulances
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,260

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    Surely the additional private jets and helicopters don't quite make that much of a difference?
    It is Sunak with the chopper addiction/problem.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/08/13/rishi-sunaks-chopper-is-going-to-get-him-into-a-lot-of-trouble/
    Cameron prefers luxury jets, to him helicopters are for plebs.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,260
    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    It i sstill a bitch if you are trapped in it
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    That's just the point: it's all politics.

    Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.

    Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    edited May 10

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and they said nothing...
    Isn't this an internal civil war between lawyers given that the complaint came from (if my memory is correct) Dan Neidle.

    And from memory it's not a hard working lawyer doing their job, it was a hard working lawyer implementing something dubious against someone who knew how the game was played so hit back.
    Dubious doesn't make it wrong.

    FWIW I like this idea of getting the client signing a legal document confirming what is in the SLAPP is true and if it turns out they lied they get charged with perjury.
    It doesn't seem necessary if the failure of the lawyer to do so is the end of their career.

    As Cyclefree said yesterday regarding the latest Post Office witness they should have done the work required to protect their backside and not assumed their client's statement was 100% truthful and accurate.

    the perjury solution only works in scenarios where the people involved are actually subject to UK law - many people using SLAPPs can up sticks and move abroad (say to the Isle of Mann in one famous example).
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,355

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    It's hilarious we still have the likes of the OECD and IMF saying we should be the slowest and definitely will be next year.

    Still obsessed by Brexit.
    Its remarkable that these idiots get any air time.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,340
    They shouldn't have put "A true story" at the start of Baby Reindeer.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 10
    Weve just had a London wide election. Harrow East would be a hold based on the patterns seen. It would also be a hold based on most london wide polling that isnt YouGov (who have confirmed they need to take a look at their capital polling) and we have the evidence of Uxbridge.
    3/1 is very good value.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    That's just the point: it's all politics.

    Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.

    Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
    It is politics but it's ensured that the headline tax rate for highest tax payers is 45% (well 47% once you include NI) when in reality it's probably 53-55% or worse depending on where you are.

    And as you say the problem becomes one of do I want further career progression (and work 5 days a week) or take time off. I suspect that with the child care changes anyone with children between 1 and 4 will decide that the 4 day week makes more sense...
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Good economic news this morning.
    Danger for tories - triumphalism will piss people off
    Danger for Labour - looking like they were desperate for bad news to use as a stick/yebbutism
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    I can see how, mathematically, you could have fewer than zero children, but as a practical measure it does seem a bit extreme.

    delightful example of how swapping 2 words round creates a very different picture in someones mind.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,050
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: wondering how McLaren are going to do all season. While Red Bull did seem to get the setup wrong, that also seemed the case at Australia. Norris just drove away from Verstappen late on.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    Good economic news this morning.
    Danger for tories - triumphalism will piss people off
    Danger for Labour - looking like they were desperate for bad news to use as a stick/yebbutism

    It looks to me that my prediction that Starmer and Reeves will benefit from the turn in the economic cycle is proving correct. Its good news. Even GDP per capita is up, after 7 consecutive quarters of being zero or negative.

  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679

    I can see how, mathematically, you could have fewer than zero children, but as a practical measure it does seem a bit extreme.

    This also, naturally, introduces the concept of "population offsetting" where a person might balance the increase in population created by their children by reducing the population elsewhere. Over-60s only count for a quarter of a child, though.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,877

    Weve just had a London wide election. Harrow East would be a hold based on the patterns seen. It would also be a hold based on most london wide polling that isnt YouGov (who have confirmed they need to take a look at their capital polling) and we have the evidence of Uxbridge.
    3/1 is very good value.

    Agree:

    2022 locals gave Cons an advantage here of around 25% at constituency level, when Labour were 5% ahead on GE VI, and that figure is significantly more than for Uxbridge. I'd be favouring the Tories for a hypothetical by-election hold here, let alone a GE hold.

    The Harrow & Brent constituency have Labour around a 5 point win in the assembly elections overall, so little doubt a sizeable Con advantage in the Harrow part.

    3/1 looks decent.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    edited May 10
    Sean_F said:

    3/1 for Harrow East is good value.

    Bob Blackman will likely hold that seat, based upon:

    1. Last week's London results
    2. His own personal vote
    3. A swing to the Conservatives among Indian voters (Harrow East is one of the most Indian constituencies in the country.) It doesn't hurt that the constituency has a few thousand Jewish voters, too.

    Note too, the Conservatives took Harrow Council, in 2022, against the trend.

    Thanks Sean.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    That's just the point: it's all politics.

    Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.

    Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
    Yes, I like to think I'm relaxed about paying tax and I'd cheerfully affect a rise in the higher rate to, say, 42%, but I put a chunk into my work pension fund last year to stay under the £100K mark as an effective marginal rate of nearly 60% just seems unreasonable, when people earning twice as much are paying a lower percentage. It's not a cunning Conservative plot to assist high earners, just an indefensible anomaly.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,057
    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    A bit misleading because of course the problem is not IR35 per se but the most recent rule changes which have made it utterly unfit for purpose. All because HMRC were overreaching themselves as usual, trying to apply it in areas where it should not be applied and so kept losing a lot of court cases. So the answer they came up with was to lobby for a change in the law which meant that now it is applied to cases where it genuinely should not because the big companies find it easier simply to apply blanket decisions to all contractors.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    Scale of crisis facing Met Police revealed as force 'not fit to serve Londoners effectively” in current state
    Staff shortages make implementing requirements in the Baroness Casey’s review and bringing down sex assault all but impossible
    ...
    ...the Met said a third of its officers will have under four years of service next year as it struggles with low pay, high workloads and plummeting application numbers.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/metropolitan-police-funding-crisis-casey-review-not-fit-to-serve-b1156549.html
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 270
    Pro_Rata said:

    Weve just had a London wide election. Harrow East would be a hold based on the patterns seen. It would also be a hold based on most london wide polling that isnt YouGov (who have confirmed they need to take a look at their capital polling) and we have the evidence of Uxbridge.
    3/1 is very good value.

    Agree:

    2022 locals gave Cons an advantage here of around 25% at constituency level, when Labour were 5% ahead on GE VI, and that figure is significantly more than for Uxbridge. I'd be favouring the Tories for a hypothetical by-election hold here, let alone a GE hold.

    The Harrow & Brent constituency have Labour around a 5 point win in the assembly elections overall, so little doubt a sizeable Con advantage in the Harrow part.

    3/1 looks decent.

    Thanks both. Tenner on at 31/10 with odds boost!!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    That's just the point: it's all politics.

    Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.

    Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
    Yes, I like to think I'm relaxed about paying tax and I'd cheerfully affect a rise in the higher rate to, say, 42%, but I put a chunk into my work pension fund last year to stay under the £100K mark as an effective marginal rate of nearly 60% just seems unreasonable, when people earning twice as much are paying a lower percentage. It's not a cunning Conservative plot to assist high earners, just an indefensible anomaly.
    Didn't you vote in favour of allowance withdrawal in 2009, Nick? Seems more than a bit hypocritical for you to avoid it now.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    That's just the point: it's all politics.

    Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.

    Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
    Yes, I like to think I'm relaxed about paying tax and I'd cheerfully affect a rise in the higher rate to, say, 42%, but I put a chunk into my work pension fund last year to stay under the £100K mark as an effective marginal rate of nearly 60% just seems unreasonable, when people earning twice as much are paying a lower percentage. It's not a cunning Conservative plot to assist high earners, just an indefensible anomaly.
    Gordon Brown's work as I recall, though with inflation and fiscal drag now involving more and more people.

    There was a similar issue of Annual Allowance charges affecting a lot of my colleagues a few years back causing people to cut hours or retire early.

    Sorting it out in a financially neutral way, such as starting the higher rate at £100 000 and restoring the personal allowance, as well as some of the child related* cliff edges would be a good thing.

    *though very legitimate to question why we subsidise child care for people on several multiples of median earnings.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098

    Scale of crisis facing Met Police revealed as force 'not fit to serve Londoners effectively” in current state
    Staff shortages make implementing requirements in the Baroness Casey’s review and bringing down sex assault all but impossible
    ...
    ...the Met said a third of its officers will have under four years of service next year as it struggles with low pay, high workloads and plummeting application numbers.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/metropolitan-police-funding-crisis-casey-review-not-fit-to-serve-b1156549.html

    It's a bit disconcerting overhearing an AFP officer at an Australian airport with a strong Brummy accent. My dentist is from Falkirk and one of the NZ DOC rangers I met was from Yorkshire.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈Labour lead the SNP for first time in a Savanta poll.

    🌹LAB 37% (+2)
    🎗️SNP 33% (-2)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    Eabhal said:

    Scale of crisis facing Met Police revealed as force 'not fit to serve Londoners effectively” in current state
    Staff shortages make implementing requirements in the Baroness Casey’s review and bringing down sex assault all but impossible
    ...
    ...the Met said a third of its officers will have under four years of service next year as it struggles with low pay, high workloads and plummeting application numbers.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/metropolitan-police-funding-crisis-casey-review-not-fit-to-serve-b1156549.html

    It's a bit disconcerting overhearing an AFP officer at an Australian airport with a strong Brummy accent. My dentist is from Falkirk and one of the NZ DOC rangers I met was from Yorkshire.
    It's not just doctors. In the police case, Cameron & May's police cuts meant the exodus of experienced coppers, to be replaced years later by Boris's newbies (and even in raw headcount, the Met is below par).
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,599

    Dave returns to government and the economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    It's impressive that curtailing Cameron's business involvement by bringing him back into government led to such a boost. His business input must have been a real drag on the economy!

    Who else is buggering up the economy that we can divert into buggering up the government instead?
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,355
    Sean_F said:

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    It's hilarious we still have the likes of the OECD and IMF saying we should be the slowest and definitely will be next year.

    Still obsessed by Brexit.

    The economy has already grown faster than the OECD predicted for the entire year.

    Growth of 2 - 2.5% is the norm, unless it gets depressed by events like Covid, and Ukraine. That is good news in due course for Kier Starmer, but I won't begrudge him that.
    The OECD prediction got massive headlines, its amazing the press forget about that now.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

    🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
    🌹LAB 35% (+2)
    🌳CON 18% (=)
    🔶LD 8% (+2)
    ⬜️Other 5% (=)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098
    edited May 10

    Eabhal said:

    Scale of crisis facing Met Police revealed as force 'not fit to serve Londoners effectively” in current state
    Staff shortages make implementing requirements in the Baroness Casey’s review and bringing down sex assault all but impossible
    ...
    ...the Met said a third of its officers will have under four years of service next year as it struggles with low pay, high workloads and plummeting application numbers.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/metropolitan-police-funding-crisis-casey-review-not-fit-to-serve-b1156549.html

    It's a bit disconcerting overhearing an AFP officer at an Australian airport with a strong Brummy accent. My dentist is from Falkirk and one of the NZ DOC rangers I met was from Yorkshire.
    It's not just doctors. In the police case, Cameron & May's police cuts meant the exodus of experienced coppers, to be replaced years later by Boris's newbies (and even in raw headcount, the Met is below par).
    And it's not just pay. Conditions and flexibility are significantly better (choosing night shifts and holidays, for example), and people here don't have the same sense of entitlement to public services that you sometimes get in the UK.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Eabhal said:

    Scale of crisis facing Met Police revealed as force 'not fit to serve Londoners effectively” in current state
    Staff shortages make implementing requirements in the Baroness Casey’s review and bringing down sex assault all but impossible
    ...
    ...the Met said a third of its officers will have under four years of service next year as it struggles with low pay, high workloads and plummeting application numbers.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/metropolitan-police-funding-crisis-casey-review-not-fit-to-serve-b1156549.html

    It's a bit disconcerting overhearing an AFP officer at an Australian airport with a strong Brummy accent. My dentist is from Falkirk and one of the NZ DOC rangers I met was from Yorkshire.
    It's not just doctors. In the police case, Cameron & May's police cuts meant the exodus of experienced coppers, to be replaced years later by Boris's newbies (and even in raw headcount, the Met is below par).
    The Met’s problems aren’t really about resources.

    They’re about criminals getting through the vetting process.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395
    Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast

    Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!


  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098
    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

    🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
    🌹LAB 35% (+2)
    🌳CON 18% (=)
    🔶LD 8% (+2)
    ⬜️Other 5% (=)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)

    Amazed that the SNP are on 35%. I'd have assumed lots of nationalists would have switched to the Greens or Alba given the circumstances.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    DavidL said:

    I still suspect that the "recession" at the end of last year will eventually be eased out of the history books by revisions of the figures. I am also suspicious that the ONS once again has construction in recession in Q1. I still remember when they had it in recession and had to revise that to 4% growth. It seems a particularly difficult sector to monitor and my guess is that the adverse weather effects will have been overstated.

    The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.

    The last 2 years, however, have been awful with next to no growth at all. The cost of gas and consequential broader inflation really hurt. It will take more than one good quarter to give the Tories anything to boast about.

    I think that Q2 will be similar to Q1, at least out in the real world people are buzzing about in a way I've not seen in ages. Plus there's a huge real terms pay rise at the bottom with minimum wage rises, that alone will be worth a few basis points. I think the government will hold the election around a week or after the expected Q3 GDP figures. By then the recession will have become a statistical phantom, we will have seen 3 consecutive quarters of reasonably good growth and there will be feel good factor heading into Christmas for the first time in ages.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    edited May 10

    Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast

    Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!


    Yet another warm sunny day here, likely low to mid 20s later, so I am taking a leaf out of your book and going for a walk in the hills…
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098

    Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast

    Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!


    I got quite into 10am beers on my last big walking trip on Europe. Calmed the nerves during the big 1pm thunderstorms.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    I still suspect that the "recession" at the end of last year will eventually be eased out of the history books by revisions of the figures. I am also suspicious that the ONS once again has construction in recession in Q1. I still remember when they had it in recession and had to revise that to 4% growth. It seems a particularly difficult sector to monitor and my guess is that the adverse weather effects will have been overstated.

    The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.

    The last 2 years, however, have been awful with next to no growth at all. The cost of gas and consequential broader inflation really hurt. It will take more than one good quarter to give the Tories anything to boast about.

    I think that Q2 will be similar to Q1, at least out in the real world people are buzzing about in a way I've not seen in ages. Plus there's a huge real terms pay rise at the bottom with minimum wage rises, that alone will be worth a few basis points. I think the government will hold the election around a week or after the expected Q3 GDP figures. By then the recession will have become a statistical phantom, we will have seen 3 consecutive quarters of reasonably good growth and there will be feel good factor heading into Christmas for the first time in ages.
    In my niche (IT development) we seem to have a combination of little investment and what money is being invested is going to offshore consultancies.

    And given that for takeover reasons my current contracts just been binned it’s not a great time to be looking
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    edited May 10
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    That's just the point: it's all politics.

    Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.

    Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
    Yes, I like to think I'm relaxed about paying tax and I'd cheerfully affect a rise in the higher rate to, say, 42%, but I put a chunk into my work pension fund last year to stay under the £100K mark as an effective marginal rate of nearly 60% just seems unreasonable, when people earning twice as much are paying a lower percentage. It's not a cunning Conservative plot to assist high earners, just an indefensible anomaly.
    Gordon Brown's work as I recall, though with inflation and fiscal drag now involving more and more people.

    There was a similar issue of Annual Allowance charges affecting a lot of my colleagues a few years back causing people to cut hours or retire early.

    Sorting it out in a financially neutral way, such as starting the higher rate at £100 000 and restoring the personal allowance, as well as some of the child related* cliff edges would be a good thing.

    *though very legitimate to question why we subsidise child care for people on several multiples of median earnings.
    My memory may be playing tricks on me but my recollection was that the withdrawal of PA was during Osborne's time during his broadest shoulders phase as he struggled with the horrendously unbalanced books that he had been left. He certainly withdrew my CB entitlement.

    Brown screwed up private sector pensions, abused fiscal drift horribly (although perhaps not on the same scale as Hunt), announced and reannounced the same spending again and again and spent most of his budgets moving around a few tens of millions towards his latest obsession in economically irrelevant ways other than complicating the tax code (a common failing of almost all Chancellors since Lawson in fairness). Oh, and he sold our gold on the cheap. Its enough of a charge sheet to be getting on with.

    Edit he sneaked it in in April 2010 a month before the election but Osborne didn't reverse it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    FPT because it may be worth a discussion and at least Casino will see it

    Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.

    That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.

    Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.

    Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.

    Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
    That's just the point: it's all politics.

    Economically, it's stupid. I don't want to share too much personal income details on here but I was just below it 3 years ago and now am significantly over it but don't earn much more net than my wife, who's on £96k. My personal allowance is gone and I'm actually on a Z-code.

    Sometimes wonder why I bother. I could just work 4-days a week or drop back to a slightly easier job and not really be any worse off.
    Yes, I like to think I'm relaxed about paying tax and I'd cheerfully affect a rise in the higher rate to, say, 42%, but I put a chunk into my work pension fund last year to stay under the £100K mark as an effective marginal rate of nearly 60% just seems unreasonable, when people earning twice as much are paying a lower percentage. It's not a cunning Conservative plot to assist high earners, just an indefensible anomaly.
    Gordon Brown's work as I recall, though with inflation and fiscal drag now involving more and more people.

    There was a similar issue of Annual Allowance charges affecting a lot of my colleagues a few years back causing people to cut hours or retire early.

    Sorting it out in a financially neutral way, such as starting the higher rate at £100 000 and restoring the personal allowance, as well as some of the child related* cliff edges would be a good thing.

    *though very legitimate to question why we subsidise child care for people on several multiples of median earnings.
    My memory may be playing tricks on me but my recollection was that the withdrawal of PA was during Osborne's time during his broadest shoulders phase as he struggled with the horrendously unbalanced books that he had been left. He certainly withdrew my CB entitlement.

    Brown screwed up private sector pensions, abused fiscal drift horribly (although perhaps not on the same scale as Hunt), announced and reannounced the same spending again and again and spent most of his budgets moving around a few tens of millions towards his latest obsession in economically irrelevant ways other than complicating the tax code (a common failing of almost all Chancellors since Lawson in fairness). Oh, and he sold our gold on the cheap. Its enough of a charge sheet to be getting on with.
    No, allowance withdrawal was a brownie.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

    🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
    🌹LAB 35% (+2)
    🌳CON 18% (=)
    🔶LD 8% (+2)
    ⬜️Other 5% (=)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)

    Amazed that the SNP are on 35%. I'd have assumed lots of nationalists would have switched to the Greens or Alba given the circumstances.
    It's swinneymania!

    Though bringing in Forbes is a positive healing move.

    The SNP vote is very sticky despite everything.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    Great to have some nice constituency markets - these are much more interesting than boring old will Labour get a majority.

    None of those look particularly appealing although the Harrow one is I assume because it has a very large Indian population. In general Tory outperformance in seats with large Indian (Hindu or Sikh) representation seems like one of the stronger prospects for them in the GE and is born out by recent results.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,196
    DavidL said:

    I still suspect that the "recession" at the end of last year will eventually be eased out of the history books by revisions of the figures. I am also suspicious that the ONS once again has construction in recession in Q1. I still remember when they had it in recession and had to revise that to 4% growth. It seems a particularly difficult sector to monitor and my guess is that the adverse weather effects will have been overstated.

    The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.

    The last 2 years, however, have been awful with next to no growth at all. The cost of gas and consequential broader inflation really hurt. It will take more than one good quarter to give the Tories anything to boast about.

    For assessing the current state of aggregate demand output per head is an obfuscation. While it does say something about longer-term changes in productivity and also living standards, the usually slow-moving changes in the denominator obscure the conjunctural interpretation of GDP figures. I found it a bit worrying that the BBC was looking to inappropriately offset the good news for "balance". The ONS representative was also less than impressive in context.

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

    🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
    🌹LAB 35% (+2)
    🌳CON 18% (=)
    🔶LD 8% (+2)
    ⬜️Other 5% (=)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)

    SLD surge!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    The other interesting playing out at the moment is the slight return of risk appetite among UK investors. It needs to go a lot further to resolve the London listings issue but I have noticed talk among my former colleagues that investors seem more ready to go into higher risk equities than they were compared to the last 2-3 years.

    With a few regulatory changes to encourage more investor risk taking and a change in attitude from the government around rewarding success rather than punishing it I think we could see the FTSE hit 10k+ and a lot of the undervaluation of UK companies disappear.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    MaxPB said:

    The other interesting playing out at the moment is the slight return of risk appetite among UK investors. It needs to go a lot further to resolve the London listings issue but I have noticed talk among my former colleagues that investors seem more ready to go into higher risk equities than they were compared to the last 2-3 years.

    With a few regulatory changes to encourage more investor risk taking and a change in attitude from the government around rewarding success rather than punishing it I think we could see the FTSE hit 10k+ and a lot of the undervaluation of UK companies disappear.

    London has been outperforming the rest of the world exchanges for the last month and I'm struggling to understand why - I can only assume it's about UK vs US interest rate expectations.

    Annoying as I am very underweight on anything UK given its dire recent performance.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    TimS said:

    Great to have some nice constituency markets - these are much more interesting than boring old will Labour get a majority.

    None of those look particularly appealing although the Harrow one is I assume because it has a very large Indian population. In general Tory outperformance in seats with large Indian (Hindu or Sikh) representation seems like one of the stronger prospects for them in the GE and is born out by recent results.

    I think Sikh less than Hindu. Sikhs are increasingly disliking Modi, and a bit rubs off here.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    TimS said:

    Great to have some nice constituency markets - these are much more interesting than boring old will Labour get a majority.

    None of those look particularly appealing although the Harrow one is I assume because it has a very large Indian population. In general Tory outperformance in seats with large Indian (Hindu or Sikh) representation seems like one of the stronger prospects for them in the GE and is born out by recent results.

    It also looks as if we may be at peak Labour in London more widely?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

    🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
    🌹LAB 35% (+2)
    🌳CON 18% (=)
    🔶LD 8% (+2)
    ⬜️Other 5% (=)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)

    Amazed that the SNP are on 35%. I'd have assumed lots of nationalists would have switched to the Greens or Alba given the circumstances.
    It's swinneymania!

    Though bringing in Forbes is a positive healing move.

    The SNP vote is very sticky despite everything.

    One of the really strange disparities in Scottish polling is that the SNP vote and independence used to be pretty much in lockstep. Independence is still around 48% so a very wide gap has opened up, mainly because people have stopped believing that the SNP will deliver it. But come the election there will be a lot of potential voters that the SNP might hope to fool one more time. Labour should not go back to taking Scotland for granted.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    So apparently @UKLabour and @Keir_Starmer do know where to find Kent after all...?

    So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!

    They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.


    https://x.com/RosieDuffield1/status/1788824738921357710
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,885

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    Nadhim Zahawi’s lawyer is at risk of facing sanctions for attempting to restrict a critic of the former chancellor with intimidatory warnings.

    first time a solicitor has been referred to a tribunal over an alleged ‘Slapp’ — a strategic lawsuit against public participation

    What a disgrace.

    A hard working lawyer is persecuted for doing their job, that is the road to fascism.

    First they came for the lawyers and I said nothing...
    First they came for the lawyer and the lawyer issued a cease and desist letter...
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,877
    Pro_Rata said:

    Weve just had a London wide election. Harrow East would be a hold based on the patterns seen. It would also be a hold based on most london wide polling that isnt YouGov (who have confirmed they need to take a look at their capital polling) and we have the evidence of Uxbridge.
    3/1 is very good value.

    Agree:

    2022 locals gave Cons an advantage here of around 25% at constituency level, when Labour were 5% ahead on GE VI, and that figure is significantly more than for Uxbridge. I'd be favouring the Tories for a hypothetical by-election hold here, let alone a GE hold.

    The Harrow & Brent constituency have Labour around a 5 point win in the assembly elections overall, so little doubt a sizeable Con advantage in the Harrow part.

    3/1 looks decent.

    Slight correction to the Con lead, nearer 20% and still above that seen in Uxbridge

    I'd roughly totted up the lead numbers for LE22 and estimated the lead based on a lower turnout. Its still Doesn't negate 3/1 being value in my eyes:

    Harrow E LE 2022:
    Con 18520 (54.2%)
    Lab 11861 (34.7)
    LD 2694 (7.9)
    Grn 665 (1.9)
    Ind 328 (1.0)
    Ref (0.3)




    As ever, DYOR.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471

    I can see how, mathematically, you could have fewer than zero children, but as a practical measure it does seem a bit extreme.

    This also, naturally, introduces the concept of "population offsetting" where a person might balance the increase in population created by their children by reducing the population elsewhere. Over-60s only count for a quarter of a child, though.
    Logan's Run springs to mind
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    The other interesting playing out at the moment is the slight return of risk appetite among UK investors. It needs to go a lot further to resolve the London listings issue but I have noticed talk among my former colleagues that investors seem more ready to go into higher risk equities than they were compared to the last 2-3 years.

    With a few regulatory changes to encourage more investor risk taking and a change in attitude from the government around rewarding success rather than punishing it I think we could see the FTSE hit 10k+ and a lot of the undervaluation of UK companies disappear.

    London has been outperforming the rest of the world exchanges for the last month and I'm struggling to understand why - I can only assume it's about UK vs US interest rate expectations.

    Annoying as I am very underweight on anything UK given its dire recent performance.
    I think some is just that investors now see a lot of upside in London markets and don't want to miss the boat. When Coutts made a virtual exit it said to me it's time to pile in given how behind the curve they are.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    MaxPB said:

    The other interesting playing out at the moment is the slight return of risk appetite among UK investors. It needs to go a lot further to resolve the London listings issue but I have noticed talk among my former colleagues that investors seem more ready to go into higher risk equities than they were compared to the last 2-3 years.

    With a few regulatory changes to encourage more investor risk taking and a change in attitude from the government around rewarding success rather than punishing it I think we could see the FTSE hit 10k+ and a lot of the undervaluation of UK companies disappear.

    I mentioned this the other day when the PM was boasting about the £1bn investment in what cannot be named raised, err, in America. We need to ensure that we have a structure that positively encourages investment in this country, not just in actual kit and people but in shares as well. Its the only way that the sort of growth we have seen this morning can be sustained.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,604

    Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast

    Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!


    Old men drinking wine with their breakfast, you say? Is one of them by any chance researching the latest developments in AI on their laptop.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 915
    Is there a market on MPs losing the whip or changing parties? Either by name or the number who do in next 6 months.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    I still suspect that the "recession" at the end of last year will eventually be eased out of the history books by revisions of the figures. I am also suspicious that the ONS once again has construction in recession in Q1. I still remember when they had it in recession and had to revise that to 4% growth. It seems a particularly difficult sector to monitor and my guess is that the adverse weather effects will have been overstated.

    The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.

    The last 2 years, however, have been awful with next to no growth at all. The cost of gas and consequential broader inflation really hurt. It will take more than one good quarter to give the Tories anything to boast about.

    For assessing the current state of aggregate demand output per head is an obfuscation. While it does say something about longer-term changes in productivity and also living standards, the usually slow-moving changes in the denominator obscure the conjunctural interpretation of GDP figures. I found it a bit worrying that the BBC was looking to inappropriately offset the good news for "balance". The ONS representative was also less than impressive in context.

    I don't think the BBC were looking to offset the good news for "balance", I think it's the case that GDP per capita has become a bit of a meme in journalistic circles in recent months, the next big idea and one that explains two phenomena: why people don't feel any richer, and why people are worried about immigration. It's something that suits both the anti-immigration right and anti-Tory left to highlight.

    It makes sense to look at per-head measures in an election year but the trouble is GDP is probably the worst measure to do per capita on: better to look at real household income or consumer spending.

    Some very interesting analysis a few days ago, unfortunately I forget who from, showing a quite remarkable switch from household spending to saving. Our savings ratio and national balance sheets are healthier than they've been for years thanks to savings during Covid and higher recent interest rates. We look - and probably need to be if we want to avoid a Japan situation - primed for a big increase in consumer spending. Generally the healthier the private balance sheet the more woeful the public sector one. Again, see Japan.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    Great to have some nice constituency markets - these are much more interesting than boring old will Labour get a majority.

    None of those look particularly appealing although the Harrow one is I assume because it has a very large Indian population. In general Tory outperformance in seats with large Indian (Hindu or Sikh) representation seems like one of the stronger prospects for them in the GE and is born out by recent results.

    It also looks as if we may be at peak Labour in London more widely?
    I'd agree. The coming Tory collapse has already occured in London, the swing there will be much much lower than nationally and, as such, the Bromleys and Romfords are very safe and even the Harrows and Uxbridges look a tough nut
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    The other interesting playing out at the moment is the slight return of risk appetite among UK investors. It needs to go a lot further to resolve the London listings issue but I have noticed talk among my former colleagues that investors seem more ready to go into higher risk equities than they were compared to the last 2-3 years.

    With a few regulatory changes to encourage more investor risk taking and a change in attitude from the government around rewarding success rather than punishing it I think we could see the FTSE hit 10k+ and a lot of the undervaluation of UK companies disappear.

    London has been outperforming the rest of the world exchanges for the last month and I'm struggling to understand why - I can only assume it's about UK vs US interest rate expectations.

    Annoying as I am very underweight on anything UK given its dire recent performance.
    I think it’s catch up. For several years, UK equities have been undervalued, compared to other markets.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,604
    edited May 10
    Meanwhile, scooching around the Graun this morning they always put this plea up to get people to pay. I mean no wonder CIF is populated by a bunch of loons given they must all be secure in their tinfoil hats cowering under the settee.

    "Teams of lawyers from the rich and powerful trying to stop us publishing stories they don’t want you to see.

    Lobby groups with opaque funding who are determined to undermine facts about the climate emergency and other established science.

    Authoritarian states with no regard for the freedom of the press.

    Bad actors spreading disinformation online to undermine democracy.

    If you can, please support us on a monthly basis. It takes less than a minute to set up, and you can rest assured that you’re making a big impact every single month in support of open, independent journalism. Thank you."


  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

    🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
    🌹LAB 35% (+2)
    🌳CON 18% (=)
    🔶LD 8% (+2)
    ⬜️Other 5% (=)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)

    Amazed that the SNP are on 35%. I'd have assumed lots of nationalists would have switched to the Greens or Alba given the circumstances.
    It's swinneymania!

    Though bringing in Forbes is a positive healing move.

    The SNP vote is very sticky despite everything.
    For sure. Any vote that’s based around identity will be sticky.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    So apparently @UKLabour and @Keir_Starmer do know where to find Kent after all...?

    So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!

    They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.


    https://x.com/RosieDuffield1/status/1788824738921357710

    She has been treated like shit by Starmer, hope she very publically wrecks him
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    It's hilarious we still have the likes of the OECD and IMF saying we should be the slowest and definitely will be next year.

    Still obsessed by Brexit.
    Its remarkable that these idiots get any air time.
    I have no problem with forecasters getting air time, but I do wish that they had to answer for their record more often. The media rarely goes back and assesses whether or not forescasts were any cop, all too often forecasts are treated as facts.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395
    IanB2 said:

    Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast

    Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!

    Yet another warm sunny day here, likely low to mid 20s later, so I am taking a leaf out of your book and going for a walk in the hills…
    Enjoy :smile: I'm currently checking out the bus timetable!

    I don't think this holiday needs any more walking or hills.. Although I'm heading back to Pamplona, which isn't flattest of cities

    There I plan to drink wine and eat plenty
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    The other interesting playing out at the moment is the slight return of risk appetite among UK investors. It needs to go a lot further to resolve the London listings issue but I have noticed talk among my former colleagues that investors seem more ready to go into higher risk equities than they were compared to the last 2-3 years.

    With a few regulatory changes to encourage more investor risk taking and a change in attitude from the government around rewarding success rather than punishing it I think we could see the FTSE hit 10k+ and a lot of the undervaluation of UK companies disappear.

    London has been outperforming the rest of the world exchanges for the last month and I'm struggling to understand why - I can only assume it's about UK vs US interest rate expectations.

    Annoying as I am very underweight on anything UK given its dire recent performance.
    I think some is just that investors now see a lot of upside in London markets and don't want to miss the boat. When Coutts made a virtual exit it said to me it's time to pile in given how behind the curve they are.
    Experts have been seeing the Uk as relatively undervalued, and the US contrarywise, for some time, although there hasn’t been much evidence of a correction until recently. Resources firms are also overweight on the UK index so it could be partly due to the upswing in commodity stocks like BHP.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    TimS said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    I still suspect that the "recession" at the end of last year will eventually be eased out of the history books by revisions of the figures. I am also suspicious that the ONS once again has construction in recession in Q1. I still remember when they had it in recession and had to revise that to 4% growth. It seems a particularly difficult sector to monitor and my guess is that the adverse weather effects will have been overstated.

    The sudden fascination of GDP per head on the BBC is new too. Don't recall that being given as much prominence before.

    The last 2 years, however, have been awful with next to no growth at all. The cost of gas and consequential broader inflation really hurt. It will take more than one good quarter to give the Tories anything to boast about.

    For assessing the current state of aggregate demand output per head is an obfuscation. While it does say something about longer-term changes in productivity and also living standards, the usually slow-moving changes in the denominator obscure the conjunctural interpretation of GDP figures. I found it a bit worrying that the BBC was looking to inappropriately offset the good news for "balance". The ONS representative was also less than impressive in context.

    I don't think the BBC were looking to offset the good news for "balance", I think it's the case that GDP per capita has become a bit of a meme in journalistic circles in recent months, the next big idea and one that explains two phenomena: why people don't feel any richer, and why people are worried about immigration. It's something that suits both the anti-immigration right and anti-Tory left to highlight.

    It makes sense to look at per-head measures in an election year but the trouble is GDP is probably the worst measure to do per capita on: better to look at real household income or consumer spending.

    Some very interesting analysis a few days ago, unfortunately I forget who from, showing a quite remarkable switch from household spending to saving. Our savings ratio and national balance sheets are healthier than they've been for years thanks to savings during Covid and higher recent interest rates. We look - and probably need to be if we want to avoid a Japan situation - primed for a big increase in consumer spending. Generally the healthier the private balance sheet the more woeful the public sector one. Again, see Japan.
    The balance of trade is also looking healthier - almost certainly linked to the savings ratio, as @RCS1000 has often pointed out.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,355
    glw said:

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    It's hilarious we still have the likes of the OECD and IMF saying we should be the slowest and definitely will be next year.

    Still obsessed by Brexit.
    Its remarkable that these idiots get any air time.
    I have no problem with forecasters getting air time, but I do wish that they had to answer for their record more often. The media rarely goes back and assesses whether or not forescasts were any cop, all too often forecasts are treated as facts.
    Its like have a racing tipster who gets it wrong all the time but still being seen as an expert.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610

    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    Great to have some nice constituency markets - these are much more interesting than boring old will Labour get a majority.

    None of those look particularly appealing although the Harrow one is I assume because it has a very large Indian population. In general Tory outperformance in seats with large Indian (Hindu or Sikh) representation seems like one of the stronger prospects for them in the GE and is born out by recent results.

    It also looks as if we may be at peak Labour in London more widely?
    I'd agree. The coming Tory collapse has already occured in London, the swing there will be much much lower than nationally and, as such, the Bromleys and Romfords are very safe and even the Harrows and Uxbridges look a tough nut
    And I think some of the underlying trends that have fuelled Labour’s upswing in London, such as older flight and the influx of the young into newly converted BTL flats and rooms, has come to an end.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    Jesus tittyfucking Christ on a cracker
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    Great to have some nice constituency markets - these are much more interesting than boring old will Labour get a majority.

    None of those look particularly appealing although the Harrow one is I assume because it has a very large Indian population. In general Tory outperformance in seats with large Indian (Hindu or Sikh) representation seems like one of the stronger prospects for them in the GE and is born out by recent results.

    It also looks as if we may be at peak Labour in London more widely?
    I'd agree. The coming Tory collapse has already occured in London, the swing there will be much much lower than nationally and, as such, the Bromleys and Romfords are very safe and even the Harrows and Uxbridges look a tough nut
    And I think some of the underlying trends that have fuelled Labour’s upswing in London, such as older flight and the influx of the young into newly converted BTL flats and rooms, has come to an end.
    I think that's fair comment, yes
    London is also why I think the more apocalyptic Tory VI scores are highly unlikely. Mid 20s not high teens. That's still bad enough to see them 'rumped' at low 100s seats on a poor night
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    TOPPING said:

    Had a nice lie in and have found a place for coffee. The only three other customers are old men drinking wine with their breakfast

    Even I've never been tempted by a glass of red so early in the day, but it really does seem to be the way of life here.. two more old guys have come in; they've bought a bottle!


    Old men drinking wine with their breakfast, you say? Is one of them by any chance researching the latest developments in AI on their laptop.
    “Red wine is milk for old men”
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    The other interesting playing out at the moment is the slight return of risk appetite among UK investors. It needs to go a lot further to resolve the London listings issue but I have noticed talk among my former colleagues that investors seem more ready to go into higher risk equities than they were compared to the last 2-3 years.

    With a few regulatory changes to encourage more investor risk taking and a change in attitude from the government around rewarding success rather than punishing it I think we could see the FTSE hit 10k+ and a lot of the undervaluation of UK companies disappear.

    London has been outperforming the rest of the world exchanges for the last month and I'm struggling to understand why - I can only assume it's about UK vs US interest rate expectations.

    Annoying as I am very underweight on anything UK given its dire recent performance.
    I think some is just that investors now see a lot of upside in London markets and don't want to miss the boat. When Coutts made a virtual exit it said to me it's time to pile in given how behind the curve they are.
    Experts have been seeing the Uk as relatively undervalued, and the US contrarywise, for some time, although there hasn’t been much evidence of a correction until recently. Resources firms are also overweight on the UK index so it could be partly due to the upswing in commodity stocks like BHP.
    It's the miners that are leading the index recently, and today too.

    My portfolio is fairly equally split between UK and overseas, but over recent years it is the overseas bit that has prospered and UK that has lagged.

    As ever it is Remania doing well both geographically and in terms of sectors of the economy. I would caution Sunak against triumphantly choppering in to Blackpool or Stoke proclaiming "you never had it so good".

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315
    Chemtrails is currently trending on Twitter.

    (Sits huddled in the corner, gently sobbing about humanity...)
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,973
    malcolmg said:

    Dave returns to government and economy becomes the fastest growing economy in the G7.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    Surely the additional private jets and helicopters don't quite make that much of a difference?
    It is Sunak with the chopper addiction/problem.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/08/13/rishi-sunaks-chopper-is-going-to-get-him-into-a-lot-of-trouble/
    Cameron prefers luxury jets, to him helicopters are for plebs.
    Talking of chopper problems isn't it extraordinary that the first person who has managed to make Dionald Trump look both ridiculous and feeble should be Stormy Daniels?

    Everyone else he has swatted like flies.

    A powerful and intelligent woman for our times.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,733
    Colleague of mine say Dominic Cummings has launched the 'Start Up Party'?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,071
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for
    @TheScotsman


    📈First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

    🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
    🌹LAB 35% (+2)
    🌳CON 18% (=)
    🔶LD 8% (+2)
    ⬜️Other 5% (=)

    1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

    (change from 6-11 Oct '23)

    Amazed that the SNP are on 35%. I'd have assumed lots of nationalists would have switched to the Greens or Alba given the circumstances.
    It's swinneymania!

    Though bringing in Forbes is a positive healing move.

    The SNP vote is very sticky despite everything.
    It’s about publicity. Alba get very little publicity, apart from continuing smear stories regarding Alex Salmond. The Greens get lots of publicity, although it won’t necessarily encourage voters to switch to them rather than Labour, as much of it is not related to the environment. SNP voters also tend not to take much notice of the media, as it has been overwhelmingly anti SNP for decades, as in crying wolf syndrome.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733

    So apparently @UKLabour and @Keir_Starmer do know where to find Kent after all...?

    So glad to hear @YvetteCooperMP on @BBCr4today saying she has spoken at length with new Top Socialist Natalie Elphicke about immigration (since Wednesday) too. All totally and completely normal!

    They've clearly had nobody (next to Dover) to speak to about this over the last few years....But now it's all about to be cleared up. Hooray.


    https://x.com/RosieDuffield1/status/1788824738921357710

    Wasn't one of the complaints about Rosie Duffield that she could not find her way to Kent either, or was that someone else?
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    Leon said:

    Jesus tittyfucking Christ on a cracker

    Not my favourite cheese but not bad. Better with some crisp french bread though.
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